This is becoming a tradition around here, so here we go again! You know how this works, break out the crystal balls and prognosticate.
Ground Rules
Predictions provided should either be for June 30th, 2016 or December 31st, 2016, please specify.
Provide justification for your forecast, where applicable (unless you are just making it up, if so, state that).
You may provide any caveats and/or assumptions that your forecast is based on.
You need not provide a forecast for all categories below.
Where applicable, forecasts are judged against the surveys/reports listed.
Real Estate
National
Existing Home Sales – NAR
Existing Home Price – S&P Case Shiller HPI
Existing Home Price – Other
National New Home Sales – NAHB
Median New Home Price – NAHB
New Jersey
Existing Home Sales – NAR/NJAR
Existing Home Price – S&P Case Shiller HPI
Existing Home Price – Other
Commodities
Energy (Oil, NatGas)
Metals (Gold, Silver, Copper)
Equities
United States
International Developed Markets
Emerging Markets
Mortgage Financing
30-Year Fixed – Freddie Mac PMMS
15-Year Fixed – Freddie Mac PMMS
Foreclosures
Delinquency Rate
Foreclosure Rate
Macroeconomic
10y Treasury
Fed Funds Rate
National Unemployment Rate
New Jersey Unemployment Rate
Oddball
Anything else you’d like to make a prediction about.
Happy New Year!
Pumps’ brain will continue to be consumed by mad cow disease.
By the end of 2016, as many as two dozen Millennials will leave their parent’s basement.
I predict 2016 mirrors 2006 in a lot of ways. Obama’s fake economic recovery will mirror Bush’s in more ways than one.
Bojangles will exit office as the necronomy goes from gray to black.
JJ WILL return!
Re: Real Estate. In my neck of the woods (Warren County) it will keep bouncing along the bottom and delinquent payments (including water/sewer/taxes/utilities) continue to rise with rentals declining.
Vigoda > Natalie Cole
http://www.usatoday.com/story/life/2016/01/01/natalie-cole-dead-65/78175680/
NJT,
Ever deal with Mayberrys up your way?
Prediction: Hippy/Liberal Turnout will continue to build, sweeping Bernie into office.
Prediction: Trump’s head will literally explode during an appearance in Duluth, MN.
Prediction: Rising interest rates will cool housing demand for all of those but the people who really don’t give a sh#t about interest rates.
Start the year off right from the home country (clot Edition):
A man who avoided jail time after pleaded guilty to having sex with a donkey asked a judge this week to revoke his light sentence and send him to the pokey instead.
Gideon D. Swartzentruber, 20, of Neillsville, Tenn., admitted in September to “encountering a female donkey and briefly having sex with it.”
He explained his behavior by telling investigators at the time that “his privates were out of control.”
A judge last month slapped him with a year’s probation, a $443 fine, and mandatory counseling.
Swartzentruber appeared in court this week and asked to be sent to jail, according to News-Herald Media. The judge granted his request and sentenced him to a 30-day stint in the slammer.
The farmhand was fired after his boss caught him in the act with the donkey.
Swartzentruber, who was charged with a misdemeanor count of sexual gratification with an animal, said he did not hurt the donkey and that it was the first time “he had done anything like that.”
2016 Forecast: jj is found murdered underneath the Long Beach boardwalk. The wife is the prime suspect. Motive? She read all his posts on these threads from day one, and realized what a lying, cheap, cynical sack of sh!t she married and cut off his schwanz…..when he punched her, she lost it, and clocked him with a frying pan…..he bled to death while unconscious and she moved the body to the beach……
I miss the heals in the oar locks!
jj is sleeping with the fishes. Game over, folks.
The Belgians know how to party……we are such a sterile bunch of pussies in this country…..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uWxCTcNiAaw
#8 What is a ‘Mayberry’? – My town is like Mayberry and everyone is so damn nice! Took a couple years to get used to it after living in east jersey all my life where people would rather say FU than hi.
In an interview with the local town rag former Montvale Mercedes CEO Stephen Cannon said the move to Atlanta made sense because 1. The South is where Mercedes brand is growing, 2. the strong school systems/better quality of life in Atlanta, 3. the ports of Brunswick Ga, and 4. in order to stay competitive financially in the future the headquarters would need to be relocated elsewhere. Wow thats quite a diss on Jersey.
Guy lost any type of credibility when he referred to the strong school systems in comparison to nj. Also, ports? Nj has access to one of the greatest ports in the country. Give me a break. Guy is a total bs artist.
walking bye says:
January 2, 2016 at 5:32 pm
In an interview with the local town rag former Montvale Mercedes CEO Stephen Cannon said the move to Atlanta made sense because 1. The South is where Mercedes brand is growing, 2. the strong school systems/better quality of life in Atlanta, 3. the ports of Brunswick Ga, and 4. in order to stay competitive financially in the future the headquarters would need to be relocated elsewhere. Wow thats quite a diss on Jersey.
I predict housing continues with modest price growth. Labor market continues to tighten and get stronger. Stock market sees growth between 5-8%. Small rate hikes, twice in 2016, by the fed. Overall economy ends the year anticipating wage inflation finally coming in 2017/2018. So the economy ends on a good note in 2016 with anticipation of better days ahead.
18- energy and commodity prices stay down. Might bottom in 2016, followed by gradual rise as economy strengthens through the end of the decade.
ok maybe he is a bit sleazy jersey style though. Article went on to say as of Jan 1st he would be working for Atlanta Falcons management team after signing a deal he orchestrated in December for naming the Falcons home stadium the Mercedes Benz Stadium for 27 years at $ 1.7 billion. For context MetLife paid $400 million for 25 years.
17:
Have you ever lived anywhere else? If not, have you ever even visited anywhere else for and extended period of time?
“an”
What a dirt bag. Totally in bed with the whole atl scene. Trying to promote atl in our papers. Trying to con people into moving there. Guy is a total scumbag. Really can’t believe he tried to compare the ports and schools of Georgia to nj. What a joker. After seeing how much money he paid for the rights to the name of the stadium, I know all I need to know.
walking bye says:
January 2, 2016 at 7:50 pm
ok maybe he is a bit sleazy jersey style though. Article went on to say as of Jan 1st he would be working for Atlanta Falcons management team after signing a deal he orchestrated in December for naming the Falcons home stadium the Mercedes Benz Stadium for 27 years at $ 1.7 billion. For context MetLife paid $400 million for 25 years.
I predict more of the same
I used to live in Florida for 2 months every summer. How do you think I know all about the south? Have visited most parts of the country. Hell, when I got out of school, I worked as an auditor at pwc. All I did was travel. So, I think I know a thing or two about different parts of the country. Most downtowns are ghost towns by 7pm. 10pm, good look finding any signs of life.
relo says:
January 2, 2016 at 7:54 pm
17:
Have you ever lived anywhere else? If not, have you ever even visited anywhere else for and extended period of time?
25
So your exposure to great swaths of the country is Nana’s place in Bradenton and the Applebee’s in the Courtyard parking lot?
Just to correct the $ amount its $1.4 billion for the naming rights not $1.7, that MB will pay. I sometimes wonder if the Germans are too trusting. How they could allow this guy to pull off paying almost 4x the naming rights costs in a much smaller market (NYC is #1 media market size to #9 atlanta). Not sure what MB marketing budget is, but they already had a named stadium _Saints, New Orleans as well. Then the guy takes off to work for the guys he just negotiated with in less 30 days.
I’ve lived in 6 states….Florida being one. Worked there three years after graduate school in FL. Just sayin’. Miami.
“New Jersey really is the best of both worlds. It’s got great beaches, access to several huge cities, and one of the most beautiful shorelines in the country. That’s a trifecta that very few other places in America can compete with.”
Elke says:
March 7, 2014 at 9:28 pm
I moved from NJ to Charlotte, NC and I didn’t do my research on jobs its been 3 yrs and I’ve been temping its all in who you know to get a job and I have no family here. I visited NC one time and decided to relocate bad mistake I’m not happy her and I’ve decided to move back to NJ a place where I’m more familiar and all my support is for me and my 12 year old son.
ki says:
April 14, 2014 at 9:17 am
I totally understand how you fell, we relocated to NC from Delaware for my husbands job and I gave up a great job to move here. It has been over 2years and I still cannot find work. I am trying to figure out how to get back home asap
http://blog.penelopetrunk.com/2012/02/11/7-big-relocation-mistakes/
“We did a tour of many cities to decide where to settle down. It turns out you have to visit to understand the real estate prices and the commute. Some places look like they have similar housing costs in the stats on paper, but those stats aren’t fine-grained enough (they’re usually for a wide area that includes 5 minute commutes and hour-long commutes, and they’re not for a narrow enough slice of house sizes/types).
In reality, in city A you can have a 5-minute commute close to amenities for the same price as a 45-minute commute in city B, but they look kind of similar or at least not hugely different in the stats.
For schools too, the exact neighborhood matters…
So you really have to pick a neighborhood or list of neighborhoods, not a city. And online stats about neighborhoods are crap. Have to visit and collect data.
The thing to do is get really specific. Find a bunch of sample plausible-looking houses on Trulia or whatever and go drive by them. (Don’t fall in love with the houses, they won’t be on the market by the time you move. Just go compare the reality and the neighborhood to the real estate listing appearances.) You can find actual commute lengths and actual housing prices that are actually on the market this way.
Even after all the effort, I think people often get stuck with the miserable commutes because “within 15 minutes of my house” just isn’t a wide enough radius for most job searches to be successful. And if you have two earners in the household, scoring two jobs both within 15 minutes would be some kind of miracle.
A tip that worked for us: think small city. The right kind of small city has lots of nice features, but doesn’t have remotely the downsides of the big cities. In particular you aren’t forced an hour away to afford a family. There are lots of great small cities out there.”
“7. We overlook key research.
When I relocated from NYC to Madison, I did tons of research. I knew everything about happiness and economic development and I knew what I was getting into even though I never stepped foot in Madison before I moved there.
But I ignored a crucial piece of research: The schools. I simply could not believe that the schools were as bad – relative to the rest of the country – as all the data showed. It’s a university town, I reasoned. It’s liberal. They must raise taxes a lot for schools. I couldn’t believe it. But it was true. And I ended up having to leave Madison because the schools were so bad.
Then I moved to the country. I paid a lot of attention to the research about optimizers. People in the country are generally content with a relatively simple life with few options. City people complicate their lives with lots of choices for all the best stuff, but that doesn’t make them happy. And you become like the people you live with. Really.
So I decided to become a content, country person by moving to where they live.
It turns out that choosing a location is a lot like choosing a mate. What you decide to overlook ends up being the most important part of your decision. You know what is going to be hard about the life you are choosing and you know that you are deciding to ignore it and go ahead with the choice anyway. We never really know if we are making a good decision or if we’ll have to get over it.”
“It’s a university town, I reasoned. It’s liberal.
Washington D.C. is one of the most liberal places in the country, and it has terrible schools. Seattle is extraordinarily liberal, and many of Seattle’s public schools are so bad that that parents use all kinds of means to sway assignments.”
“Your data regarding Raleigh is jejune and lacking at best. Who is going to teach these children? Teachers are abandoning NC like rats from a sinking ship. The pay is lousy and the paper work and behaviour of students horrific. Oh, but you are talking about the privileged of the upper class aren’t you? Those who can afford private school. As for the morning commute, because I live in the south part of the county, it takes 30+ minutes to drive seven miles as the “new” 540 is being completed. But wait, projections for that projects are another three years. I have lived in other cities, bigger cities, so I know about education systems and transportation issues. I also know about poverty, something both Raleigh proper and the county have a great amount. Ladies and gentlemen, do better research.”
http://www.forbes.com/sites/tomvanriper/2014/04/16/the-best-cities-for-raising-a-family-2/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=btDqtCGIgGY
25:
Punky, I stand corrected. Clearly with this post you have demonstrated your vast worldly experience. I will now return to my normal practice of skipping your posts. Shame on me for allowing myself to be led astray.
Find anything false with what I have stated about these other locales. There are a lot of qualifications needed to be looked at when choosing a place to raise a family. I’m sorry, nj hits a lot of the check marks. The biggest, prob is education. You can sit here and naively think there isn’t much of a difference in education, or you can understand the truth, and understand how much of a difference there is.
You are right, nj is a terrible place to live, every other location is better. It doesn’t get any worse than being forced to live in a suburb in nj. You know who wants tree lined streets, with almost zero crime, beautiful manicured lawns, and excellent schools. Access to giant cultural zones, the beach, or hikes in the mountains, all within an hour drive. What a terrible place to live.
relo says:
January 2, 2016 at 11:59 pm
25:
Punky, I stand corrected. Clearly with this post you have demonstrated your vast worldly experience. I will now return to my normal practice of skipping your posts. Shame on me for allowing myself to be led astray.
I have a suggestion, pay them enough. How can you even call it a profession when you can’t even live off the salary without being subsidized for housing. What a joke.
“Inspired by the success in the heart of the Silicon Valley of a 70-unit teachers-only apartment complex, school districts in high cost-of-living areas and rural communities that have long struggled to staff classrooms are considering buying or building rent-subsidized apartments as a way to attract and retain teachers amid concerns of a looming shortage.”
http://news.yahoo.com/cities-look-subsidized-housing-stem-teacher-shortages-071035912.html
They leave after 5 years because they realize the job is a dead end job as a profession. Who wants to spend all that money on college to get a job in which your housing must be subsidized. Is this a joke? It’s basically signing up for welfare. Again, who in their right mind would go through all the schooling and the debt that comes with it, to join a profession that forces you to rely on the govt through welfare to survive?
“The district hopes to acquire 15 to 20 apartments in each of the three towns, enough to house at least 10 percent of its 450 teachers, Assistant Superintendent Shannon Pelland said. In an area where the average home sells for $630,000 and the average teacher makes $47,000, housing costs are “without a doubt the number one reason we lose teachers and it’s the number one reason people turn down jobs,” Pelland said.
“Our typical pattern with teachers is they come to the valley, it’s an absolutely beautiful place, it’s a great lifestyle with wonderful recreational opportunities, and they are willing to live with roommates and do whatever they have to do to make it work for four or five years,” she said. “And right at that 5-year mark we see a lot of them saying, ‘This is great for a while, but I’ll never be able to afford a home here or make it work here, I’m moving on.'””
They leave after 5 years because they realize the job is a dead end job as a profession. Who wants to spend all that money on college to get a job in which your housing must be subsidized. Is this a joke? It’s basically signing up for welfare. Again, who in their right mind would go through all the schooling and the debt that comes with it, to join a profession that forces you to rely on the govt through welfare to survive?
“The district hopes to acquire 15 to 20 apartments in each of the three towns, enough to house at least 10 percent of its 450 teachers, Assistant Superintendent Shannon Pelland said. In an area where the average home sells for $630,000 and the average teacher makes $47,000, housing costs are “without a doubt the number one reason we lose teachers and it’s the number one reason people turn down jobs,” Pelland said.
“Our typical pattern with teachers is they come to the valley, it’s an absolutely beautiful place, it’s a great lifestyle with wonderful recreational opportunities, and they are willing to live with roommates and do whatever they have to do to make it work for four or five years,” she said. “And right at that 5-year mark we see a lot of them saying, ‘This is great for a while, but I’ll never be able to afford a home here or make it work here, I’m moving on.’””
They don’t need to rely on the government welfare to survive. Maybe they just shouldn’t expect to live in the most expensive city in the country. We have millions of people that choose to live in the suburbs instead of NYC. Me personally, I drive an hour and 15 minutes to work right now but live a very good quality of a life because my area isn’t as expensive as where I work.
That being said, the teachers of San Francisco are not paid very well and should probably move on to better careers.
Can’t believe I’m getting sucked into a Pumps rah-rah NJ thread but here goes….
“I’m sorry, nj hits a lot of the check marks. The biggest, prob is education. You can sit here and naively think there isn’t much of a difference in education, or you can understand the truth, and understand how much of a difference there is.”
As I’ve said repeatedly, before declaring any locale ‘champion’ of good schools one must first define what ‘good schools’ actually means. If it is some award and higher than average high school test scores, fine. Or, it may be defined by which colleges and in what numbers a high school places their students. Wh1te males from public schools in high end NJ suburbs are at a WILD disadvantage in college placement relative to comparable students from other areas. Even moreso in STEM. My blue ribbon, blow the doors off test scores school district didn’t even have a STEM program until three years ago. Ditto another similar district with which I am very familiar (and by his posts one I believe Ben has traversed). Meanwhile, a district our town likes to sneer at has in-depth engineering studies. Care to compare yields at Stanford, MIT, etc between these two blue ribbon districts and their ‘poorer’ brother?
If your end point is to get a great HS education then blue ribbon NJ towns are for you. If your endpoint is to get into a top tier, high demand college program you are better off elsewhere.
“You are right, nj is a terrible place to live, every other location is better. It doesn’t get any worse than being forced to live in a suburb in nj. You know who wants tree lined streets, with almost zero crime, beautiful manicured lawns, and excellent schools. Access to giant cultural zones, the beach, or hikes in the mountains, all within an hour drive”
There are dozens of areas all over the country that can make this claim. Nothing special here.
Left, and how much do these locations cost that are similar to what nj offers?
Where are these dozens of locations that offer four seasons (not too extreme weather where your home is destroyed by natural disasters) to go with a predominately educated population, access to multiple large cities, mountains, beach, access to lots of fresh water, access to plenty of professional opportunities, and access to a large wealthy consumer base in a very densely populated area if owning a business is your thing. The opportunities are limitless in this area. Can do whatever you want and have access to whatever you want.
Other areas of the country that offer similar things are so freaking expensive, it’s not even funny. Good luck finding a 700,000 to 800,000 3000 sq ft colonial in other areas of the country offering what jersey offers.
““You are right, nj is a terrible place to live, every other location is better. It doesn’t get any worse than being forced to live in a suburb in nj. You know who wants tree lined streets, with almost zero crime, beautiful manicured lawns, and excellent schools. Access to giant cultural zones, the beach, or hikes in the mountains, all within an hour drive”
There are dozens of areas all over the country that can make this claim. Nothing special here.”
LW
Your thoughts are irrelevant unless they include anonymous internet comments from other random websites.
Consequently, I did find out that unlike other top tier districts in this state, West Windsor-Plainsboro has sent a dozen kids to MIT in the past three years.
Ben, I would welcome the opportunity to dive into HS/college discussion with you if there is ever a GTG.
The process for my oldest, still ongoing, is a real eye opener.
Not sure if your WW-P stat on MIT includes North and South? Solid either way, but obviously more impressive if it is 4 per year from 400 students vs. 4 per year from 800.
My guy is on the waitlist there…fingers crossed…
Pumpkin do you really believe all the nonsense you post?? I think you are the most contradictory peson I have ever encountered.
I’m assuming it was North & South combined. Either way, I only know of 1 kid from my former workplace that got in and it was because he established himself as the smartest high school student in the nation by 8th grade…if that makes sense.
I wonder what it is. Either someone in the school is well adept at pulling strings or they are doing something different that makes their kids stand out application wise.
MIT loosens up its reqs quite a bit if you’re a male who can strike a soccer ball well.
Not that those guys are anywhere near being bad students, but most of their squad has the same sort of quality that gets you wondering about Stanford athletes.
The real question is WTF are you doing to get him OFF the waitlist? You need to be incredibly active and creative, and not just sit on your hands and hope for the Tooth Fairy……..
leftwing says:
January 3, 2016 at 11:46 am
Ben, I would welcome the opportunity to dive into HS/college discussion with you if there is ever a GTG.
The process for my oldest, still ongoing, is a real eye opener.
Not sure if your WW-P stat on MIT includes North and South? Solid either way, but obviously more impressive if it is 4 per year from 400 students vs. 4 per year from 800.
My guy is on the waitlist there…fingers crossed…
I have already interviewed two Cornell applicants……one rejected early from Stanford and the other from MIT……
49
What is your insight? Why would or should Cornell for example choose to accept one or the other of fairly equal candidates from similar districts?
For example, Freehold Regional. Excluding the Monmouth magnets, six high schools from Manalapan to Howell. Demographically, fairly homogenous. Probably one of the few last bastions of “middle class” in NJ. Including what I would assume is the school district you live in.
New tenants today! Quality applicants are hard to find these days (especially in Warren County).
*New ‘fun’ story. Went by the other day and noticed my sign (FOR RENT) was GONE! Thing was STURDY and NAILED into the ground. Bought another and put it up. A few hours later I passed by on my way to another place when I noticed a former tenants (left before being evicted – not for non-payment…bad behavior) truck parked near the property and him getting out. Pulled behind him and…dude was GONE so fast the smoke cloud was blinding.
Here’s the funny part: Today the old sign was placed on the front steps…wiped CLEAN.
My wife likes to watch soap operas. I live ’em.
*Cool thing about Warren County, NJ is…the law is ALWAYS on the Landlords side (IF you follow all the rules).
All ears Chi… I don’t know the Bernank, Thain, or Kofi to ask them to make a call on his behalf. He had an interview before the deadline, I believe that helped. Don’t know another would, even assuming he could get it with someone else.
Fire up your best advice, I’m listening.
Send another essay into the school…..describe your student’s freshman year….what he would do and who he would seek out…..dive into the faculty or current research teams/groups and/or social/student organizations….put your applicant on the campus and bring it alive for the application readers…..don’t go overkill; be succinct……talk about the impact of your student and what they bring to the table that will broaden the community……assume it as a freebie essay……
It won’t jump you ahead of admits, but it will pull you higher up the waitlist FWIW……
Just to rain on your parade…..waitlist on early decision is worse that waitlist in the general pool……waitlist from the general pool means they have seen EVERYONE and they are waitlisting you……waitlist on early decision means that they know your first choice, and they don’t want you. However, they just want to make sure that the pool they get isn’t weaker than they want, so they will string you along…….if they have yield concerns, they can use your student in a pinch.
Not trying to be a dick……the process is contrived and evil sh!t…..don’t shoot the messenger……I have no idea, but if your student is Asian or South Asian, assume you are rejected……period
Both are from wealthy families. One goes to a magnet school and the other to an integrated public school, but in both cases the zip code kills them. One is Asian, so he is doomed….while EXCEEDINGLY impressive, he plays to stereotype…..also, as you know, Cornell has many different front doors into it. So given his background and interests, the door he chose makes absolute no sense…..I think he is doomed.
The other guy has a legit shot, but I think he will end up at a different school…..he is literally two different people sewn together…..he is strong, but his unique juxtaposition makes him good……if he gets kicked out, then it is due to the zip code, maleness and whiteness…..
Hughesrep says:
January 3, 2016 at 7:17 pm
49
What is your insight? Why would or should Cornell for example choose to accept one or the other of fairly equal candidates from similar districts?
For example, Freehold Regional. Excluding the Monmouth magnets, six high schools from Manalapan to Howell. Demographically, fairly homogenous. Probably one of the few last bastions of “middle class” in NJ. Including what I would assume is the school district you live in.
Well I live in Raleigh and let me say the traffic is not bad compared to NJ. I mean look at the density its still nowhere near the density of the NE cities. Its still a big area, and nowhere near as populated. I drive all the belts at all different times and yes right into RPT rush hour and its nothing like NJ into the tunnels or RT 80. Now is that a reason to move , NO, find a great job and move to NC. Job first. Me, I love to watch everyone else go to work and kick back. Listen these two places are like night and day. The whole NJ vs NC is completely different. Here is the key that I will give you in the next post.
Here you go, If you are retired and want to preserve wealth Raleigh and this area is a nice area to do that. It has all the amenities and a much lower cost of living. If your loaded and I mean loaded retired and don’t give a crap stay in NJ, because its not NYC rich. Its not Greenwich CT rich and people don’t show off here. Its very low key rich. Now if your broke and working or getting a social program or getting crumbs off the rich stay in the North East. Now if your union, govt, or State , stay in the North East. If your mim. wage , stay in the North East. Only certain demographics I feel should come here. If you can transfer and make 50K – 120K you are damn ripe to come here and sock away some decent money. You see in a red state you can sock away money if you middle class, in a blue state you spend all you money if your middle class. Any other class your in don’t come. You wont be happy. So the key is Middle Class come, Rich, or poor stay in the Blue States!!
Had lunch yesterday with a women from Washington Township who works for Bayer in Parsippany. Got to keep her job . She has moved to Durham and loves it. Been here now 1 month and her Sister lives in Chapel Hill for about 7 years. These are 2 jewish gals , so you can clearly see the South especially the Triangle is changing!!