The New Weehawken

From the Star Ledger:

How the hottest real estate market in N.J. literally divided this tiny town

Seemingly everyone knew this tiny cliffside town — all 1.4-square miles of it — would one day become a dynamic real estate market.

Barbara Tulko, a Weehawken resident since 1974 and a realtor since 1984, remembers diverting bubbly first-time buyers in the 1980s looking to live in Hoboken up to neighboring Weehawken. It had the same key features the more well-known community had — views and easy access to Manhattan — but was less crowded and considerably less expensive.

Mary Ciuffitelli, a 37-year Weehawken resident, would advertise various properties she owned as the “extreme West side” — because it was nearly an extension of Manhattan.

But in 2017, Weehawken requires no diversionary tactics or aggressive sales pitches.

Because of demand from buyers who have been priced out of New York City, Hoboken and Jersey City — and who are now scooping up luxury waterfront condos — median home values in the town of under 15,000 residents increased nearly 25 percent over the last year. It’s the highest surge in the state.

Median home values are now at $757,500, compared to $488,000 in 2012, and Zillow predicts that figure will hit $809,000 by July 2018. The price continues to rise as a surge of waterfront development has taken place in the town through which the Lincoln Tunnel and it’s daily 50,000 number of drivers pass, including construction of The Estuary (589 rental units), The Avenue Collection (177 condos), and RiversEdge (236 units) and RiverParc (280 units).

Yet the spoils of gentrification are rarely evenly distributed — and a closer look at the boom in Weehawken reveals tensions and fault lines. In a town where 55 percent of students in their school system are on free or reduced lunch, the largest property value increases have largely been concentrated near the waterfront.

And with the cliffs of the Palisades sharply dividing longtime residents, who live at higher, inland elevations and share a western border with Union City, from new city transports down along the Hudson River, some say that the town has split into two.

“You could say you know everyone in Weehawken,” says Enrique Romero, who grew up there. “Before you go down there.”

“We created now a new city,” says Gabe Pasquale, senior vice president of marketing and sales for Landsea Homes, one of the developers of the waterfront.

This entry was posted in Gold Coast, Housing Recovery, New Development. Bookmark the permalink.

254 Responses to The New Weehawken

  1. Yo! says:

    Thanks for posting article Grim. Unfortunately the master planning along the waterfront in Weehawken and West New York is miserable. A missed opportunity especially as a large piece of land is controlled by just a few owners. Big contrast to Lefrak who continue to a nice job in Jersey City. And Hoboken waterfront coming together nicely too.

    Interesting to see a lot of suburban New Jersey bleeding population today. Meanwhile Weehawken’s population is growing at fastest pace in 100 years. It isn’t just Manhattan proximity, a big population driver by community is the community’s willingness to issue residential building permits.

  2. grim says:

    Riverfront north of the tunnel?

    How do you masterplan that? You had massively polluted industrial parcels filling that entire space for decades.

    There was very little that could be compared with Hoboken and JC.

    If you tried to take those properties by eminent domain, the owners would have given them the keys and ran away, transferring their obligation to remediate as well. Weehawken could have never afforded that.

  3. grim says:

    It’s one thing to convert an industrial parcel into a large development, when it stands alone, surrounded by already gentrifying residential neighborhoods (Maxwell in Hoboken for example). Especially considering an area of strong public transport and access.

    Compare this with Weehawken riverfront. Two ways in, two ways out, thin strip, no residential at all when redevelopment started. These developments were all long-shots, and they needed to cater to automobiles, despite being in such close proximity to NYC.

  4. grim says:

    South of the tunnel was very much done in a Lefrak-esque way, albeit in the late 80s early 90s styles.

  5. chicagofinance says:

    Weehawken has condos abutting the helix….just saw them Sunday…..WTF?

    Got C-O?

  6. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Why in the world would the spoils of gentrification be evenly distributed under an environment of extreme income inequality. Come on…

    “Yet the spoils of gentrification are rarely evenly distributed — and a closer look at the boom in Weehawken reveals tensions and fault lines. In a town where 55 percent of students in their school system are on free or reduced lunch, the largest property value increases have largely been concentrated near the waterfront.”

  7. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Manhattan peaked two years ago, and the spill over has been spreading ever since. Weekhawken now has pushed the spillover to the next value. Every increase in these towns, will lead to the spread of more price appreciation in a new location that has not received it yet. Get in the suburban towns with good schools systems that haven’t seen a run up in pricing yet, that’s how you play this game. Telling you, Wayne/Paramus types are prime for the taking.

    “Because of demand from buyers who have been priced out of New York City, Hoboken and Jersey City — and who are now scooping up luxury waterfront condos — median home values in the town of under 15,000 residents increased nearly 25 percent over the last year. It’s the highest surge in the state.”

  8. JCer says:

    My wife an I never “got” the whole weehawken->edgewater river road corridor, very little in the way of restaurants and shops and endless traffic, only bright spot is ferry service and the light rail stop(which barely serves a small piece of the development. The issue with the water front there is the development is poorly done, visually ugly, and lacking everything other than residential. They could have done a better job with the development, more mixed use, less car centric to reduce the level of congestion on river road. Besides great views it is all the drawbacks of city living with few of the benefits.

  9. joyce says:

    “They could have done a better job with the development, more mixed use,”

    Exactly, JCer.

    “a big population driver by community is the community’s willingness to issue residential building permits”

    Yes to this too… and only residential building permits, consequences be damned.

  10. 3b says:

    The article is discussing gentrification in Weehawken and spill over from Hoboken an JC and pumps is pumping Wayne and Paramus two towns that exemplify the suburbs that these people don’t want want more. But according to pumps wave after wave of people are just going to swallow up all if these areas and pushing people to the next town all they way up to Paramus and Wayne!!

  11. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Man, do workers get ripped off by the bottom and the top.

    “Let’s say you and I are neighbors. You’re an emergency room doctor, and I don’t work, thanks to a pile of money my grandparents left me.

    You spend your days and nights stitching up gunshot wounds and helping children survive asthma attacks. I’ve gotten really good at World of Warcraft, winning EBay auctions, and frying shishito peppers to just the right crispiness.

    Let’s also say we both report $300,000 in income to the Internal Revenue Service this year. Who pays more in taxes?

    You do, by a lot. You owe the IRS about $38,500 more, assuming each of us pays the maximum with no special deductions. I also have more flexibility to lower my burden with tax planning strategies and other tricks, and I get to skip about $24,000 in payroll taxes that you and your employer must fork over each year.”

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2017-09-12/why-american-workers-pay-twice-as-much-in-taxes-as-wealthy-investors

  12. grim says:

    If suburbs die, suburbs die everywhere.

    What does this mean for places like NC? TX? FL? AZ? Etc? Places that are far more defined by suburbs than NJ is?

    The double-talk drives me insane. NJ suburbs will be a wasteland, but Dallas is prime?

    While I completely buy into the new urbanization argument, what most don’t realize is that this means middle-america gets even more hollowed out as a result.

    NJ’s equivalent of a “suburb” by these other definitions is Pennsylvania.

  13. The Great Pumpkin says:

    You know how ignorant you sound? Dude, do you understand Paramus and Wayne have good locations with good school systems? What the hell are you thinking, seriously? You think these locations are going to go to hell? Come on, open your eyes.

    3b says:
    September 12, 2017 at 9:56 am
    The article is discussing gentrification in Weehawken and spill over from Hoboken an JC and pumps is pumping Wayne and Paramus two towns that exemplify the suburbs that these people don’t want want more. But according to pumps wave after wave of people are just going to swallow up all if these areas and pushing people to the next town all they way up to Paramus and Wayne!!

  14. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Wayne and Paramus are not far from nyc. Both have access to mass transit. Both have access to multiple highway systems. Both have great school systems in safe towns. Both have homes that are in demand 1000sq ft -4500 sq ft….they didn’t go nuts building too many 7000sq ft monsters.

  15. JJ fanboy says:

    Pumps

    Come for the king, you best not miss

  16. Grew up 07086-07087 says:

    Know the Weehawken area well.
    Corrupt, not italian corrupt, but Irish corrupt.

    The waterfront. Well there is beauty in there.

    It’s a marvel of modern engineering to see all 3 sewage processing plant spewing the excess flow thru their overflow pipes on to River Road during a Northeaster/Big Storm, which usually has a 3″ layer of river water to start out with.

    There is nothing like the smell of the Hudson during low tide in a hot summer day.
    There is nothing like the big dips/pothole from the former swamp filled with construction debris and paved over roads. Anybody seen the parking lot of PF Changs in Weehawken?

    It’s a special area meant to swindle the non-informed from their money.

  17. JJ fanboy says:

    I once knew a man who stole a ferris wheel

  18. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Hmm, anyone with an ounce of logic will look to the U.S. tax code and see that it tried to prevent workers from moving up, and wealthy individuals from losing their wealth. And people wonder why there is so much inequality, look at the tax system for god’s sake. It totally rewards the top at the expense of the professional worker who keeps society going. Talk about a$$ backwards.

    “This isn’t some quirk of the U.S. tax code. Politicians have intentionally set tax rates on wages much higher than those on long-term investment returns. The U.S. has a progressive tax system in the sense that well-paid workers sacrifice much more than poor workers on their “ordinary income.” But Americans with so-called unearned income—qualified dividends and long-term capital gains—get a break. A billionaire investor can pay about the same marginal rate as a $40,000-a-year worker, a fact Warren Buffett has famously lamented”

  19. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    When I lived in Nutley I interviewed and received a nice job offer from a Financial firm in Weehawken. Just commuting to 2 mid-day interviews was enough to convince me that driving from Nutley to Weehawken would be about 10 times worse (including culturally), than taking an air conditioned bus with it’s own special bus lane into Manahattan. Also, I had worked 70’s Camaro with a Hurst 4 speed stick as my only air conditioned car back then. I figured I would go through at least a clutch a year climbing out of that dismal hole and I would look like a freak physically. My right arm was already much bigger than my left from tennis and my left thigh would have begun to dwarf my right thigh from working the heavy clutch on my Borg-Warner Super T-10 trying to climb back up to Route 3 at 0.5 mph.

  20. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I love this guy…..makes the concept so simple to understand. 3b, he can’t make it any simpler for you. He did what I was unable to do for you.

    grim says:
    September 12, 2017 at 10:02 am
    If suburbs die, suburbs die everywhere.

    What does this mean for places like NC? TX? FL? AZ? Etc? Places that are far more defined by suburbs than NJ is?

    The double-talk drives me insane. NJ suburbs will be a wasteland, but Dallas is prime?

    While I completely buy into the new urbanization argument, what most don’t realize is that this means middle-america gets even more hollowed out as a result.

    NJ’s equivalent of a “suburb” by these other definitions is Pennsylvania.

  21. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Pumps – since you’ve already excluded yourself…stfu

    Hmm, anyone with an ounce of logic will look to the U.S. tax code …

  22. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Correct.

    grim says:
    September 12, 2017 at 10:02 am
    If suburbs die, suburbs die everywhere.

  23. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    ^^^ Most people don’t see it coming because they only look toward the city. Wayne will be fine, because Bergen County is (still) fine. You should be facing Lincoln Park, Rockaway, the Poconos to see the Tsunami of poverty approaching.

  24. grim says:

    So what do you see when you turn your back to Boston?

  25. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    The equivalent of Bergen County.

  26. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    We only have to make it to ’22, shouldn’t be a problem as a renter. After that we might be in Costa Rica before Stu.

  27. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    This past Saturday we visited my cousin’s lake house on Congamond Lake in Western MA (actually West Suffield CT, but the Lake is in MA). Beautiful country out there. I never saw a tobacco farm before, I had no idea it grew this far North.

  28. grim says:

    Suspect NJ will no longer be in the Top 3 when it comes to foreclosures and delinquencies. Given the disasters in Texas and Florida, those states will likely see significant increases in delinquencies, just like NJ did post-Sandy. With NY overtaking NJ across most foreclosure/delinquency metrics, likely we get pushed down to the #4 position in a few months. The lack of flood insurance for many of the inundated areas around the Texas coast will likely result in widespread walk-aways. Foreclosure moratoria will ensure those stats stay high for a long while.

  29. 3b says:

    Pumps ignorant? The discussion is on urban and you bring in Wayne and Paramus? You have this mindset that there is just an unlimited supply of wealthy people wave after wave who will absorb all of towns into a wonderful metropolis of uber wealthy in both suburban and urban areas. That in my mind is delusional!

  30. The Great Pumpkin says:

    3b, do you understand that Paramus and Wayne are not really suburban as the rest of the country sees it? They would be a part of nyc in any other major city. Why does this continuously fly over your head? It’s beyond frustrating.

  31. 3b says:

    Pumps they are the epitome of suburban. Shopping centers strip malls highways and chain restaurants exactly what these urban dwellers do not want.

  32. grim says:

    July 31, 2014 at 7:02 am

    Do you define city vs suburb by population density? That would make sense, no? Suburbs sprawl, so fewer people per square mile, cities have high rises and dense development, so a higher level of people per square mile.

    Garfield, NJ has a higher population density than Boston, Mass.
    Fort Lee, NJ has a higher population density than Chicago, Ill.
    Prospect Park, NJ has a higher population density than Philadelphia, Pa.

    Guttenberg, Union City, West New York, and Hoboken all have a higher population density than New York City.

    The city of Dallas is 450 square miles, if you combined Bergen and Passaic Counties, you would have approximately 443 square miles. The combined population of Bergen and Passaic Counties would be nearly 1.4 million, versus Dallas which has 1.3 million. If Bergen and Passaic were consolidated into a single “City” from a naming perspective, it would be equivalent to Dallas, Tx.

    Again, how do you define suburb?

    Most of NJ’s “suburbs” are more “city” than most cities are across the United States.

  33. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    3b – The Pumps delusion/brain damage goes beyond that. His gospel of suburban wealth dictates that we all have complete faith that corporations have NO OTHER CHOICE than to up the wages of all the dopes who bought overpriced shacks on a busy roads.

    Somehow I think the there are some ex-employees of Mercedes-Benz corporate HQ that have a different idea about how things ultimately turn out.

    Hahahahahahahahahahahahaha

    Pumps ignorant? The discussion is on urban and you bring in Wayne and Paramus? You have this mindset that there is just an unlimited supply of wealthy people wave after wave who will absorb all of towns into a wonderful metropolis of uber wealthy in both suburban and urban areas. That in my mind is delusional!

  34. grim says:

    December 27, 2016 at 8:41 am

    The Northeast Megalopolis is the wealthiest, most productive, highest earning, best educated place in the entire world. Not to mention the most urbanized place in the United States.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northeast_megalopolis#/media/File:Boswash.png

    2% of the US by land area generates more than 20% of it’s GDP, and 20% of the US population. Economically, this is the most important place in the entire world.

    The amount of infill development in the next 30 years will turn the Northeast Megalopolis into what could be considered one giant city. Population forecasts have the NEM growing by about 12 million by 2025, roughly a 20% increase in population since 2010.

    So while I like to insult pumps, I’ll echo his question, what suburb? When we are talking about the re-urbanization of America, I’m pretty sure we’re not talking about Cleveland’s astronomical rebirth.

  35. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    I’m just glad that Boston will fall last because the NYC suburbs will continue to send their dopey kids here for 4 year vacations after high school. I imagine the tuition, room, board, and spending money will continue to flow in for a good while after the Bergen County/Westchester party is over.

  36. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Keep in mind that Millennials don’t want a Rol3x and an AMG Merc3des. They just want small climate-controlled places to touch glass. Don’t need no suburbs for that.

  37. The Great Pumpkin says:

    When was the last time Bergen county or Westchester county wasn’t considered affluent. What’s your basis for them not continuing this long time trend?

    The Original NJ ExPat says:
    September 12, 2017 at 12:45 pm
    I’m just glad that Boston will fall last because the NYC suburbs will continue to send their dopey kids here for 4 year vacations after high school. I imagine the tuition, room, board, and spending money will continue to flow in for a good while after the Bergen County/Westchester party is over.

  38. JCer says:

    Pumpkin there will be softening in areas that are more car dependent because of the slow death of the suburban office park. Things will change some as the sources of income continue to shift more urban, formerly affluent areas will gain a more middle class status. Places like Paramus have become less desirable as a result of not having a train, a downtown, and age/quality of the housing stock. Just look at the softness of the market in Franklin Lakes, an affluent town in the thick of Bergen County with decent schools, low taxes, and affluent residents. In the old days there were suburban office jobs paying good salaries where the management could live an affluent lifestyle in towns further away from the city, I look at a place like Basking Ridge and scratch my head as it isn’t really a good commute to NYC, what justifies the price, it used to be the large offices of companies like ATT, where does the money come from in the future(I’m talking normal homes not the horse country stuff)? Wayne is positioned a bit better than Paramus because of the big highway access and having trains it has a better commute than Paramus, it’s still a Bergen county substitute and is whole dependent on that market remaining strong.

  39. D-FENS says:

    Have we heard from NJEscapee yet? Heard the keys took a beating.

  40. 3b says:

    Grim 10:02 I am not convinced that if suburbs die in the NYC area they die everywhere. Comparing an urban area in north Carolina with the urban areas of NYC and it’s environs is not the same simply due to the vast geographical areas. All I have been saying is there appears to be a fundamental shift. In looking at this article it states that the overflow from JC and Hoboken is moving into Weehawken for whatever reason. I have banged on myself about all the residents living in lower Manhattan who based on the age of their children do not appear to be candidates to move to the suburbs. I walked by one wall street years street yesterday the old Irving Trust building being converted to condos. All over lower Manhattan buildings from three stories to fifty stories. This is unprecedented. Then throw in Jersey City Hoboken Brooklyn and all the rest and I simply ask what happens to all of these urban renewed areas if they all pick up and go the suburbs as one poster would have me believe. We have young people still finding their footing after the great recession . We have young peek marrying later and having children later and less of them. So who will inhabit all these apartments and condos and single family houses in the suburbs. I don’t know. But it can’t be both ways. I believe that perhaps the urban and suburban areas switch places and that the urban areas become the wealthier areas. And the residents forced out move to the suburbs and they become the poorer areas. I don’t see both co existing with no impact one way or the other.

  41. grim says:

    From NJBIZ:

    Leisure and hospitality created 40 percent of New Jersey’s new jobs in the past year

    Roughly 40 percent of new private sector jobs added to New Jersey since July 2016 have come from the leisure and hospitality industry, according to commercial real estate and investment firm CBRE.

    New Jersey’s leisure and hospitality industry added 26,500 jobs since last year and led the way for highest wage gains in the state’s private sector. Workers in the industry saw a 10.83 percent increase in wages in the past year.

    According to CBRE’s analysis, New Jersey was fifth in the country for wage growth with an average of 5.77 percent across all private sector jobs. Delaware, Georgia, Missouri and Arizona made up the Top Four spots, respectively.

    The massive expansion of positions created for the leisure and hospitality industry suggests an increase in visitors and tourism to the Garden State. This year’s 26,500 increase was nearly five times the amount of jobs created in the industry from 2013 to 2016, which saw 5,000 new jobs per year on average.

    Education and business services also saw large expansions this past year, with each industry adding over 14,000 new jobs since July of last year. However, Education wages have remained mostly stagnant whereas business services have increased nearly 6 percent.

  42. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I think Franklin Lakes and other affluent top end towns are suffering from current trends in the upper level market. Not many people want a 7,000 sq ft house.

    Paramus is very close to ridgewood. I don’t know the deal with parking there, but should be able to drive over to the train.

  43. Grim says:

    My point comparing Wayne and Paramus had more to do with a broad, diverse ratables structure, including major retail thoroughfares which would be nearly impossible to replicate in high density areas.

    This is very different from many other NJ towns which were hell bent on becoming bedroom communities and shunning commercial and industrial uses.

  44. JCer says:

    Pumpkin I call false, high-end market is strong in Essex county. Short Hills inventory moves quickly. In Ridgewood 1m+ houses are still selling at a good clip.

  45. NJCoast says:

    My dad in St Thomas just called from a cruise ship about to leave the island taking tourists, the elderly and infirmed. He weathered the hurricane okay and the condo generator had about 4 more days worth of fuel. Luckily the condos are perched on a cliff with one entrance which they manned 24/7 with guns, whistles and flashlights to ward off the looting gangs. My cousin’s marina didn’t lose any boats and he has been ferrying people the 40 miles to Puerto Rico so they can get flights from there. There is cellphone service at certain spots on the island, civil unrest is escalating, stores and ATMs have been looted. The airport has been taken over by FEMA to bring in supplies and troops.
    600 marines are on the island.
    My sister just returned to her condo on Marco Island. They didn’t get the 15 foot storm surge, only about 4 feet. Her place had no wind or water damage, but lots of downed trees and foliage everywhere. No electric.

  46. 3b says:

    Parking is at a premium in Ridgewood and limited to mainly town residents. And even if they could drive over to Ridgewood it does not mean they will or want to. You can’t always be so flippant.

  47. Yo! says:

    Grim 8:44 am, back in the 1980s, Imperatore bought a 340 acre block of land stretching for 2 miles down the Weehawken waterfront. Around the same time, Lefrak bought a similar piece of land containing 400 acres on the Jersey City waterfront. Imperatore f’d it up and bankrupted his company, whereas Lefrak built perhaps the most successful urban master planned community in our country’s history and our billionaires because of it.

    The only contrast is Lefrak in inherited a PATH station offering cheap journeys to Manhattan while Imperatore had to build a ferry network using mostly his own money.

    Getting a residential building permit is more difficult in a NJ suburb than s Sunbelt suburb. Many home buyers want new construction and not much of it exists in NJ outside urban condos and rental apartments.

  48. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Yes, but ridgewood doesn’t really have the huge monsters, expensive as hell, but not 7,000 sq ft homes on 2 acres.

    JCer says:
    September 12, 2017 at 2:24 pm
    Pumpkin I call false, high-end market is strong in Essex county. Short Hills inventory moves quickly. In Ridgewood 1m+ houses are still selling at a good clip.

  49. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    That’s exactly what they’ll be saying in Closter and Mamaroneck when Wayne becomes all section 8 housing.

    When was the last time Bergen county or Westchester county wasn’t considered affluent. What’s your basis for them not continuing this long time trend?

  50. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    3b – Ding! Ding! Ding! You are the winner!

    It’s already beginning. Look at pumps. He comes from a criminal family of low breeding, education, and sophistication. He’ll never live even in line of sight of NYC. He instinctively knows where he belongs. He just happens to be part of the early wave of his kind to get there first.

    I believe that perhaps the urban and suburban areas switch places and that the urban areas become the wealthier areas. And the residents forced out move to the suburbs and they become the poorer areas.

  51. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Expat, keep dreaming! I wish we could bet on it. If closter or Wayne are full of section 8 housing, give me a gun to put to my head and put me out of my misery….clearly, that would be a sign of America’s economy. Mine as well move to Nigeria.

  52. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Impressive. That brings $12 per hour up to $12.69.

    According to CBRE’s analysis, New Jersey was fifth in the country for wage growth with an average of 5.77 percent across all private sector jobs.

  53. 3b says:

    Whatever the trend is it appears to be substantial and not a one off or a trend that fades. If so then there will be tons of apartments available whole blocks whole buildings available for almost nothing!

  54. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Pumps – You misunderstand, as always. Closter and Wayne are not in the same class. You go down first while Closter residents convince themselves that the decline of Wayne and Woodland Park can never happen in Bergen County.

    I’m sure you’ll be able to borrow a gun from one of your future neighbors or one of their underage children, but he or she might make you pay for your own bullet.

    Expat, keep dreaming! I wish we could bet on it. If closter or Wayne are full of section 8 housing, give me a gun to put to my head and put me out of my misery

  55. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Expat, I hold three degrees. Stfu with your assumptions.

    I chose Wayne. Wayne didn’t choose me. If I wanted to live in jersey city I would, but I chose Wayne. I’m way more educated about the economy and local housing market than most. When I say Wayne is a good value, I mean it. You think grim, with all his knowledge of local real estate would buy in a town going down hill? Just stfu already, you couldn’t even afford where I live.

  56. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Clutch them tight.

    Expat, I hold three degrees.

  57. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    ^^^ BTW, most people don’t count, grammar school, middle school, and HS.

  58. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Such a hater. Can’t stand the fact that you don’t live in jersey anymore, huh?

    Fifth highest wage growth in the country and you ignore it.

    The Original NJ ExPat says:
    September 12, 2017 at 3:04 pm
    Impressive. That brings $12 per hour up to $12.69.

    According to CBRE’s analysis, New Jersey was fifth in the country for wage growth with an average of 5.77 percent across all private sector jobs.

  59. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Pumps – You sound like you are auditioning for a community theater production of One Flew Over the Polish Cuckoo’s Nest

    I chose Wayne. Wayne didn’t choose me. If I wanted to live in jersey city I would, but I chose Wayne. I’m way more educated about the economy and local housing market than most. When I say Wayne is a good value, I mean it. You think grim, with all his knowledge of local real estate would buy in a town going down hill? Just stfu already, you couldn’t even afford where I live.

  60. 3b says:

    Pumps you are definitely not educated about the economy not in the least. You are biased in your convictions based on your personal circumstances. You tolerate no opinion that challenges your pre conceived notions that are again based on your own personal circumstances. You refuse to acknowledge valid points that may weaken your so called arguments again based on your personal circumstances. You are dismissive. And you lack critical thinking skills. I doubt very much you have three degrees so are we now to believe that in addition to BA//BBA you have an MBA and a JD too perhaps or is it a PhD?

  61. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    BTW, grim paid $300K less than you for a house in a safe, family neighborhood. You fell for dental molding on a highway.

  62. Grim says:

    What no outrage over the $1000 iPhone?

  63. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    I just heard a ridiculous stat on CNBC. Is it possible that $60 BILLION is tied up in the financing of phones? Largest growth sector of consumer debt? Jeez, we have some stupid people in this country. Maybe Pumps will be able to sell his house to one of them?

    What no outrage over the $1000 iPhone?

  64. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Go look at my track record on this blog with calls on the economy. Give me a break.

    “Pumps you are definitely not educated about the economy not in the least.”

  65. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Yea, keep telling yourself that. Again, you couldn’t even afford my house.

    The Original NJ ExPat says:
    September 12, 2017 at 3:19 pm
    BTW, grim paid $300K less than you for a house in a safe, family neighborhood. You fell for dental molding on a highway.

  66. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    First, nobody would every want to buy your house. You are stuck with it. Second, I was pre-approved for a $645,000 mortgage (on my income alone) in 2002 when rates were 5.75% and I was shopping with a $90K down payment back then. I know it’s not your strong suit, but give the math a try.

    Yea, keep telling yourself that. Again, you couldn’t even afford my house.

  67. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    You may be an idiot savant, but if you type anything longer than 3 lines I never read it period, because your short posts are enough to show you up to be just a generic idiot.

    Maybe you should put it all together in some future NY Times best seller?

    BTW, is your daughter riding a two wheeler on the streets of your neighborhood drag strip yet?

    Go look at my track record on this blog with calls on the economy. Give me a break.

  68. MikeWraro says:

    [url=https://onlineloans.us.com/]Click This Link[/url]

  69. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Expat, I’m a millennial in a much tougher economy than you dealt with. When you can put together what I did with investing, then bust my balls. I am almost a one percenter in my age cohort.

  70. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Btw, have you ever had people you never met before stop by your house, give a business card, and ask if they could take pictures of the “beautiful” home? I have had multiple people stop to take pictures of my house. My house would last one day on the market. You just don’t get it.

  71. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Wow, my rental property is a gold mine. House across the street was foreclosed for 10 years. Stripped everything. Outside still looks nice though. This is what my tenant sent me. My mom also told me they are calling off the hook at Caldwell banker.

    “Over 100 people in 24hrs. Non stop traffic inside since yesterday. Families and investors.”

  72. The Great Pumpkin says:

    It was put on the market yesterday.

  73. 3b says:

    Pumps what economic calls have you made? Interest rates are low buy a house. Big whoop! I will make my economic call. The economy remains weak that’s why interest rates are low. If the economy was roaring rates would be rising. Who knows what will happen? That’s the call.

  74. 3b says:

    Pumps please you are embarrassing yourself. My rental property is a gold mine my mom says the phone is ringing off the hook!! And finally hordes of perfect strangers are asking to take pictures of your beautiful home! You are embarrassing yourself!!! Not a good look!!

  75. The Great Pumpkin says:

    3b, don’t disrespect my calls. 2012-13 were gloomy years. I told anyone that would listen to buy in a prime location and you would make money within ten years. I stated to keep your money in the stock market when everyone and their mother were still calling for another crash. I stated that wage inflation would come and it did for professionals. I even hit the year and you still treat me as if I’m some idiot?

    I was verbally abused for stating all the above. My intelligence was constantly insulted, but I sucked it up, even though I started to question my analysis due to being called an idiot so many times. Waited it out for years, and when most of my calls hit, not one person on this blog congratulated me, instead still looked for excuses as to why I was wrong.

    Maybe one day I will get the respect I deserve in here.

  76. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Are you serious? I said it was a goldmine because of the huge demand for a property that has been vacant for 10 years across the street from mine. Of course you blow off 100 people visiting within the first 24 hrs. I give up with you, you have to be trolling me, can’t be this slow.

  77. The Great Pumpkin says:

    That house is only a two family, and mine is a four family….you bet your a$$ I’m happy to see this kind of demand for a property that has been vacant for 10 years.

  78. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I don’t know of too many people that have had multiple strangers stop to take pictures of their house. I point this out after years of listening to expat disrespect my home and now you bust my balls…..wtf?

    “And finally hordes of perfect strangers are asking to take pictures of your beautiful home! You are embarrassing yourself!!! Not a good look!!”

  79. 3b says:

    Pumps you get beat up and then out of the blue we get the story that your rental property is a gold mine and perfect strangers stop to take pictures of your house. Sorry not buying it. It reeks!! And I am not trolling you not even close. You are incredibly annoying and that’s why I challenge you so much because of your incessant incoherent inconsistent babble. But going forward I am going to ignore you for a while.

  80. The Great Pumpkin says:

    3b, its a real estate blog, I’m giving on the street info showing how hot our local markets are getting. Why would I make that up?

  81. The Great Pumpkin says:

    And remember, I said the real estate market would start heating up 2017-18 back in 2012/13…..might be a little hiccup after that, but 2020 to 202? it will create a massive bubble that will crash hard because the demographic spending won’t be there to support the massive bubble sometime in the late 2020’s or early 30’s.

    My calls are happening right before your eyes. Go look at my posts. Yet you describe my posts as incoherent and annoying? Just cause it hurts so bad that you were wrong and I was right.

  82. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Some realtor on Facebook. The market is heating up, nowhere near boiling, but it’s heating up.

    “I listed this home at 8 Bogle Ave in North Arlington, within the 1st day we had 40 showings and 3 offers over asking price, we just closed on it yesterday!”

  83. 3b says:

    Pumps I know I said I would ignore you and I will try my best. Nothing hurts and I ain’t wrong and you certainly ain’t right. Back to ignoring.

  84. The Great Pumpkin says:

    My first floor tenant just told me a few days ago that they would be leaving end of October if all goes well with their first home purchase.

    Like clockwork….

  85. Steamturd, Part Time Orientalist and Full Time Mysoginist says:

    Best to ignore the Pumps. I gave up on him about six months ago. His lack of self-awareness is really unique.

  86. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Sorry Pumps, too many paragraphs for me to waste my time on. I’m guessing somewhere in there you are saying you are smart, wise, clairvoyant, rich, mystical, and don’t come from a criminal family.

    Color me skeptical.

  87. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    I got a sixty-nine Chevy with a 396
    Fuelie heads and a Hurst on the floor
    She’s waiting tonight down in the parking lot
    Outside the Seven-Eleven store
    Me and my partner Sonny built her straight out of scratch
    And he rides with me from town to town
    We only run for the money, got no strings attached
    We shut ’em up and then we shut ’em down

    Tonight, tonight the strip’s just right
    I want to blow ’em off in my first heat
    Summer’s here and the time is right
    For pumpkin in the street

    We take all the action we can meet
    And we cover all the northeast state
    When the strip shuts down we run ’em in the street
    From the fire roads to the interstate
    Some guys they just give up living
    And start dying little by little, piece by piece,
    Some guys come home from work and wash up,
    And go pumpkin in the street

    Tonight, tonight the strip’s just right
    I want to blow ’em all out of their seats
    Calling out around the world, we’re going pumpkin in the street

    I met her on the strip three years ago
    In a Camaro with this dude from L.A.
    I blew that Camaro off my back,
    And drove that little girl away,
    But now there’s wrinkles around my baby’s eyes
    And she cries herself to sleep at night
    When I come home the house is dark
    She sighs, “baby did you make it all right, ”
    She sits on the porch of her daddy’s house
    But all her pretty dreams are torn,
    She stares off alone into the night
    With the eyes of one who hates for just being born
    For all the shut down strangers and hot rod angels,
    Rumbling through this promised land
    Tonight my baby and me, we’re gonna ride to the sea
    And wash these sins off our hands

    Tonight, tonight the highway’s bright
    Out of our way, mister, you best keep
    ‘Cause summer’s here and the time is right
    For pumpkin in the street

  88. D-FENS says:

    3b…contrary to editorials that constantly assert (Millential) families are moving to cities, population growth in the US is driven by cities.

    http://uli.org/wp-content/uploads/ULI-Documents/Housing-in-the-Evolving-American-Suburb.pdf

    America remains a largely suburban nation.
    In America’s 50 largest (and most urbanized) metropolitan areas, suburbs as defined here account
    for 79 percent of the population, 78 percent of households, and 32 percent of the land area.
    Suburban growth has driven recent metropolitan growth.
    From 2000 to 2015, suburban areas accounted for 91 percent of population growth and 84 percent
    of household growth in the top 50 metro areas.
    The large majority of Americans work in suburbs, although job growth has been more
    balanced between suburbs and cities recently.
    As of 2014, 67.5 percent of employment in the 50 largest metro areas was in suburbs. Between
    2005 and 2010, employment in suburban areas remained stagnant with zero growth, while it
    increased by 8.0 percent in urban areas. But between 2010 and 2014, the number of jobs increased
    by 9.0 percent in suburbs, compared with 6.0 percent in urban areas.
    Suburban residents overall have higher incomes.
    The median household income in suburbs ($71,000) is substantially higher than in urban areas
    ($49,200). In addition, 88 percent of 35- to 54-year-olds with incomes above $75,000 live in the
    suburbs (compared with 77 percent of those with incomes less than $75,000). And 90 percent of
    those between ages 55 and 74 earning more than $75,000 live in the suburbs (compared with 80
    percent of those in this age range earning less).
    The suburbs are “young” compared with their regions overall.
    Fully 85 percent of children ages 18 and younger and, contrary to popular perception and most media
    attention, three-quarters of 25- to 34-year-olds in the 50 largest metro areas live in the suburbs.
    American suburbs as a whole are racially and ethnically diverse.
    Fully 76 percent of the minority population in the 50 largest metro areas lives in the suburbs—
    not much lower than the 79 percent of the population in these metro areas as a whole.
    The regional variation in home values between suburbs and cities is substantial.
    On average, the median home value in urban areas is $365,000, compared with $305,000 in
    suburban areas (not controlling for home type or size), with substantial variation by region. In the
    New York metro area, median home values in urban areas are 28 percent higher than in suburban
    areas. However, the opposite relationship is true for what we define as Legacy and Heartland
    metro areas, where suburban areas have median home values that are substantially higher than
    median home values in urban areas (18 percent in Legacy metro areas and 19 percent in Heartland
    metro areas). In Gateway, Sun Belt, and New West metro areas, median home values are very
    similar in urban and suburban areas, not controlling for home type or size.
    Different types of suburbs will have different housing demand and development opportunities.
    The report identifies development trends, issues, and innovative housing development examples
    in five distinct types of suburb within the 50 largest metro areas: “established high-end,” “stable
    middle-income,” “economically challenged,” “greenfield lifestyle,” and “greenfield value.”

  89. D-FENS says:

    sorry…meant to say pop growth was driven by “suburbs”…up late last night and early this morning…

  90. grim says:

    If suburbs were defined across the US in the same way that exist in the Northeast, the numbers would be even more skewed towards suburbs.

  91. Fabius Maximus says:

    How do you define a suburb. Where do the NY NJ suburbs end. 287, Hartford, Medford.

    Dallas, once you get to the edge, you start hitting a whole lot of nothing. You don’t get that in the Northeast.

  92. grim says:

    Yeah, that’s the point.

    Dallas is the equivalent of Bergen and Passaic counties combined.

    How do you have in NJ, what are considered nearly a hundred suburban towns, but are essentially equivalent to Dallas in terms of land area and population. Might even wager a guess that the Gross Products are similar as well.

    So, which is it? Are Bergen and Passaic a hundred suburbs, or a major metro? Do economics really care so much about imaginary lines?

  93. grim says:

    The NY Metro area is the most dense, populous, economically productive place in the entire world. We’re talking about a GDP of nearly 1.5 trillion dollars annually – the equivalent of the entire country of Canada.

    Kings County, NY (the borough of Brooklyn in New York City)
    Queens County, NY (the borough of Queens in New York City)
    New York County, NY (the borough of Manhattan in New York City)
    Bronx County, NY (the borough of The Bronx in New York City)
    Richmond County, NY (the borough of Staten Island in New York City)
    Westchester County, NY
    Bergen County, NJ
    Hudson County, NJ
    Middlesex County, NJ
    Monmouth County, NJ
    Ocean County, NJ
    Passaic County, NJ
    Rockland County, NY
    Orange County, NY
    Suffolk County
    Nassau County
    Putnam County
    Dutchess County
    Essex County, NJ
    Union County, NJ
    Morris County, NJ
    Somerset County, NJ
    Sussex County, NJ
    Hunterdon County, NJ
    Pike County, PA

  94. grim says:

    At 1.5 trillion – more economically productive than:

    All of Russia
    All of South Korea
    All of Australia
    All of Spain
    All of Mexico

  95. grim says:

    Include Boston and Philly metro, and you’ve now got the most important place in the entire world (primarily due to the pretentiousness added by Bostonites).

  96. grim says:

    And the total GDP is now greater than India, Italy, and Brazil – and giving France and UK a run for it’s Euro.

  97. JJ fanboy says:

    Housing is going up a lot in the last few years in the dfw area. I read an article on the star-telegram showing average rental apartments have gone up about 20% in the last 3 years. There are about 31,000 apartment units coming online in the next year and 1 apartment had been constructed for every 2.3 jobs created.

    Many of the small ranches and farms in my town are being converted to new housing and retail. It’s like Marlboro in the 1980s.

    Houses didn’t appreciate in this area until recently, they tended to stay the same or even drop a little bit as the house aged, now housing as gone up 35% or more in the last 5 years.

    Meanwhile once you get about 20 miles south of dallas there is nothing but huge farms and ranches. Parts of Fort Worth are still primarily farms and small ranches.

    The more desirable parts of Fort Worth with the biggest price appreciation are the areas you can walk to store s, restaurants, and parks.

  98. JJ fanboy says:

    Frisco which is north of Dallas has had its population grow from 33,000 in 2000 to about 165,000 today. Incredible growth.

  99. Cal-Essex says:

    3:00….perhaps….still the prices would need to crater.

  100. grim says:

    JJFB –

    So, let me get this straight – what is BAD about NJ, is GOOD about DFW (growing suburban sprawl and strip malls, suburban office buildings, etc).

    Right.

  101. grim says:

    Frisco which is north of Dallas has had its population grow from 33,000 in 2000 to about 165,000 today. Incredible growth.

    The NY Metro added nearly 1,500,000 people in that same time. One and a half million. That’s the equivalent of adding 9 Friscos, not the growth of 9 Friscos, 9 Friscos in their entirety.

  102. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Like I said, wait till you see the problems that come with this massive growth in such a short period of time. Going to make Nj’s problems seem like nothing.

    JJ fanboy says:
    September 13, 2017 at 8:20 am
    Frisco which is north of Dallas has had its population grow from 33,000 in 2000 to about 165,000 today. Incredible growth.

  103. The Great Pumpkin says:

    It’s poor planning, they are just letting the developers run wild. You will wish you had all the regulations nyc metro area has.

  104. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Insane, and people want to run away from this area? They think it’s dying? Wtf?

    “At 1.5 trillion – more economically productive than:

    All of Russia
    All of South Korea
    All of Australia
    All of Spain
    All of Mexico”

  105. 3b says:

    Defens I don’t deny that on a whole the US is still primarily surburbsn. My focus has been on the NYC metro area that continues to build up urban areas and that is filled with people many in the past who would have gone to the suburbs at this point . My question has been and continues to be what happens to these newly gentrified expensive areas if as one poster here believes they all up and move to the suburbs? I don’t know and no one on this blog ever hazards to make a guess either. When I ask no one responds.

  106. D-FENS says:

    I don’t think it’s a situation where people are doing one over the other. Both are growing (in terms of population and jobs anyway).

    Given the press it would seem to be a surprise but the data doesn’t lie.

    3b says:
    September 13, 2017 at 8:55 am
    Defens I don’t deny that on a whole the US is still primarily surburbsn. My focus has been on the NYC metro area that continues to build up urban areas and that is filled with people many in the past who would have gone to the suburbs at this point . My question has been and continues to be what happens to these newly gentrified expensive areas if as one poster here believes they all up and move to the suburbs? I don’t know and no one on this blog ever hazards to make a guess either. When I ask no one responds.

  107. D-FENS says:

    Election Watchdog: New Jersey Voter Rolls a ‘Pretty Wild Mess’

    http://www.lifezette.com/polizette/election-watchdog-new-jersey-voter-rolls-pretty-wild-mess/

    Here’s an example: An immigrant named Kiran Shah gets a sample ballot in the mail a few days before the Oct. 16, 2013, special election for U.S. Senate. He doesn’t remember registering to vote and doesn’t think he did. On election day, he walks to the precinct, shows the sample ballot to three different election workers, tells them that he is not a citizen, and all three tell him that because he got the sample ballot, he should vote. So he does.

    Shah subsequently talked with the deputy superintendent of elections, and then wrote a letter, asking that his name be removed from the voter roll. In his letter, he wrote: “I have not ever requested to register to vote. I received [an] “official sample ballot” in my name by mail. So I went to E. Ruthersford civic center at Vreeland Ave. on oct. [sic] 16 afternoon by walk to inquire about this. I told to three staff member that I am not U.S. citizen but have received this letter. I was told by them that I should vote. I thought that it might be compulsory to vote here in US, so I voted there. Now I request herewith to remove/cancel my name from the list.”

    What happened?

    Records show that Shah, like many others who were later found to be noncitizens, registered to vote at a Department of Motor Vehicles, known in New Jersey as a Motor Vehicle Commission office. He may not remember it, because all who walk in the door of a Motor Vehicle Commission office in New Jersey, if they’re doing anything more than looking for the bathroom, must be given a voter registration form, according to the state’s strict interpretation of the 1993 “Motor Voter” law, which requires all states to accept voter registrations on a postcard-sized form, and requires them to make these available at motor vehicle offices, at public schools, libraries, and other public places.

    “Most of the time, the noncitizens were put in the system after saying they were not a citizen and saying, ‘Here is my green card,'” said Churchwell.

    And — shockingly — even if the person checked on the form that he was not a citizen, he was still registered to vote in many cases.

  108. D-FENS says:

    Motor Voter has to be fixed, according to the Public Interest Legal Foundation, whose president and general counsel, J. Christian Adams, is a member of President Donald Trump’s voter fraud commission.

    That commission meets Tuesday in New Hampshire, where it will review PILF’s new revelation that 616 noncitizens were found to have been registered to vote in New Jersey, and also the New Hampshire Republican Party’s study that showed that more than 5,500 who voted in the New Hampshire general election in 2016 using out-of-state driver’s licenses never subsequently registered a car in the state or got in-state driver’s licenses.

    Republican Sen. Kelly Ayotte was defeated by Democrat Maggie Hassan in that election by just 1,017 votes.

  109. grim says:

    NJ “suburbs” will continue to urbanize and increase in density through redevelopment and infill. Like it or not. Population will increase.

  110. Fast Eddie says:

    The NY Metro area is the most dense, populous, economically productive place in the entire world. We’re talking about a GDP of nearly 1.5 trillion dollars annually – the equivalent of the entire country of Canada.

    Period. End of discussion. This “thing” about everyone flocking to the urban areas doesn’t apply here. NY Metro is ~ a 40 mile radius. Don’t define it by towns, remove the borders and the names and think of it as a whole. And those affluent areas are not going to turn to ghetto. Get over it. If you think that’s true, then you have a personal resentment that’s grinding your gears. It’s a competitive area.

  111. grim says:

    You are seeing the fastest rate of urbanization in Bergen and Essex currently. I’ll omit Hudson as we should essentially consider it 100% urbanized.

  112. grim says:

    Year to date (as of JUNE), both Bergen and Essex have had more than $200 million dollars each in new residential development permits.

    Add Hudson and Passaic to the mix and you have approximately $750 million in new residential development investment, January through June. By the end of the year, this will be more than a billion dollars invested in new residential development, just this year.

    Clearly we’re looking at an exodus, because why else would we be building north of 5,000 new dwelling units.

  113. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    The exodus is from the 5 boros of Manhanttan.

    Clearly we’re looking at an exodus, because why else would we be building north of 5,000 new dwelling units.

  114. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    ^^^Unless you have enough money, than you can move into Manhattan. Pumps won’t ever even be allowed to view the promised land on the Hudson because some of his DNA might escape and contaminate the populous.

  115. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Maybe they should start turning NJ office parks into section 8 housing?

  116. 3b says:

    Grim and than they won’t be suburbs any more.

  117. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    All you have to do is add a 7-11, a bus stop, and a check cashing place.

  118. grim says:

    There are also more people employed in NJ than ever before, so not only recovered from the recession, but have expanded from approximately 4.1 million employed to greater than 4.3 million employed.

    Employment increasing, jobs increasing, income increasing, housing units increasing.

    Blah blah blah, yeah, Cleveland is PRIME.

  119. grim says:

    Don’t get me wrong, not saying it’s rosy everywhere. Hunterdon, Warren, and Sussex are highly questionable. Very much possible that Morris and Passaic become the edge of the outer-ring “suburbs”.

  120. grim says:

    Doesn’t look like Hudson growth has anything to do with exodus from NYC.

    Change in Population 2010-2016

    Hudson – Up 6.9% (+44k)
    Bronx – Up 5.1% (+71k)
    Brooklyn – Up 5.0% (+125k)
    Queens – Up 4.6% (+103k)
    Bergen – Up 3.8% (+34k)
    Manhattan – Up 3.6% (+58k)
    Union – Up 3.6% (+19k)
    Nassau – Up 2.0% (+22k)
    Essex – Up 1.7% (+13k)
    Staten Island – Up 1.6% (+29k)
    Passaic – Up 1.3% (+7k)
    Morris – Up 1.2% (+6k)

  121. grim says:

    And in the next 3 years, based on the NJ DOL/Fed estimates.

    Hudson +30k
    Bergen +28k
    Passaic +14k
    Essex +11k
    Morris +11k

  122. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Just try to be open minded and understand what I’m saying. What you are seeing with the nyc metro area was a push to new gentrified areas that were previously unlivable for working class. These were poor run down areas that no one wanted to live in. Now that they have been redeveloped, you are seeing people flock to these areas because of how close they are to nyc. Why would you continue to live further away from NYC if a “new” closer option is available?

    This doesn’t mean the end of what we consider the suburbs. As soon as these areas fill in, they will eat up the supply, hence, driving up the price. As the price drives up, people will then seek the next best value that is further away, but cheaper. When these areas appreciate, the push for value will be driven even further.

    This is how it works for nj and the nyc metro area in general. We were in a long hard recession, and as the economy strengthens in the nyc metro area, you will see the same old trends return…..this time is not different. Human nature guides us and human nature will do the same exact thing with cost and value as the previous generations. It’s only natural economic behavior.

    3b says:
    September 13, 2017 at 8:55 am
    Defens I don’t deny that on a whole the US is still primarily surburbsn. My focus has been on the NYC metro area that continues to build up urban areas and that is filled with people many in the past who would have gone to the suburbs at this point . My question has been and continues to be what happens to these newly gentrified expensive areas if as one poster here believes they all up and move to the suburbs? I don’t know and no one on this blog ever hazards to make a guess either. When I ask no one responds.

  123. 3b says:

    Grim and where will the poor and lower income people fit into in all of this? Where will they go! Where are they going now? And if the suburban areas become more urbanized and I agree they are. Seeing lots of multi family rentals and condos going up in various Bergen towns not just Ft. Lee. So what happens there?

  124. grim says:

    We will see more and more of this..

    Wayne residents voice mixed views on Route 23 housing-retail project

    More than a year after its opening hearing, members of the public had their say regarding a proposed mixed-use project to construct a five-story apartment building, 262-seat restaurant and 12,835-square-foot retail building on a vacant Route 23 lot.

    The application, originally put forth by Galreh LLC, August 2016, seeks environmental waivers as well as a use variance to permit residential development within a commercial zone.

    The residential portion of the application, located at the rear of the property at 1895 Route 23, proposes 232 apartment units. Plans show the restaurant, licensed to sell alcohol, and the retail space are situated closer to the highway.

  125. grim says:

    Residents can try to fight the change all they like, but the fact is, towns need ratables. Population growth and new development is the only way to pay what’s owed.

  126. grim says:

    Estimated that Newark’s central ward (around Pru, Downtown) will add 6500 new apartments in the next 3-5 years.

  127. grim says:

    My comments have nothing to do with Pumpkin, don’t even read them as being part of the same thread.

  128. abeiz says:

    my landlord has floated the idea of selling her pristine 3fam in Fort Lee so she can transition to her CT property/business . House is 70’s built, two 2B/1.5B + one 1BR with yard walkout, central ac in one unit, paved driveway, attached two car, huge multi tiered yard. heard the realtor said she could expect mid 800 to 9 handle for it. $17k taxes. Total rent roll is likely around $6k. ‘atsa lotta leverage!

    “Seeing lots of multi family rentals” Do you mean rental only buildings, such as those at Hudson Lights? Or do you mean there is new development that is going up and it is built as multis? I haven’t seen much of that, unless you’re talking about side by side monsters.

  129. The Great Pumpkin says:

    3b/expat

    Just look at this, how in the world are the prices not going to eventually go up?

    grim says:
    September 13, 2017 at 9:41 am
    Doesn’t look like Hudson growth has anything to do with exodus from NYC.

    Change in Population 2010-2016

    Hudson – Up 6.9% (+44k)
    Bronx – Up 5.1% (+71k)
    Brooklyn – Up 5.0% (+125k)
    Queens – Up 4.6% (+103k)
    Bergen – Up 3.8% (+34k)
    Manhattan – Up 3.6% (+58k)
    Union – Up 3.6% (+19k)
    Nassau – Up 2.0% (+22k)
    Essex – Up 1.7% (+13k)
    Staten Island – Up 1.6% (+29k)
    Passaic – Up 1.3% (+7k)
    Morris – Up 1.2% (+6k)

  130. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Again, based on the writing on the wall, how in the world is this area not going to see appreciation? You have to be insane to think it will get cheaper.

    “There are also more people employed in NJ than ever before, so not only recovered from the recession, but have expanded from approximately 4.1 million employed to greater than 4.3 million employed.

    Employment increasing, jobs increasing, income increasing, housing units increasing.”

  131. grim says:

    Arguable that the Gold Coast is in the midst of what is it’s greatest expansion, far surpassing all other growth to date. ECLIPSING the last boom.

  132. The Great Pumpkin says:

    In the urban slums…..

    3b says:
    September 13, 2017 at 10:04 am
    Grim and where will the poor and lower income people fit into in all of this? Where will they go! Where are they going now? And if the suburban areas become more urbanized and I agree they are. Seeing lots of multi family rentals and condos going up in various Bergen towns not just Ft. Lee. So what happens there?

  133. grim says:

    Just looking at Jersey City, given the planned development it’s on track to not only match the 1930s population peak, but surpass it.

  134. grim says:

    Grim and where will the poor and lower income people fit into in all of this? Where will they go! Where are they going now?

    Please don’t forget Grim’s #1 prediction: Standard of living goes down now, not up. That means lower incomes will deal with living in even smaller square footages, with less personal space, perhaps with fewer cars. You will also see families continue to shrink as a result. The first kid is a given, the second kid is a luxury, and the third kid? Hope you are a millionaire. You think first time parents are older now because it’s a lifestyle choice, getting married later because they are enjoying experiences instead? No, sorry. We go down now.

    Increasing urbanization, increased population density, higher buildings – this is how this plays out.

  135. JJ fanboy says:

    Grim,

    My comment was more of an observation than a good vs bad. I don’t think this area is utopia, the main advantage for us was the cost of living was significantly lower. Plus lots of major companies are expanding or relocating the dallas-Fort worth area.

    Urbanization is going on here and the millennials seem to be the ones most likely to move into the walkable neighborhoods.

    My town reminded me of northern Monmouth county in the 80s with a mix of farms and housing developments, but sadly the farms and ranches here are rapidly disappearing just like what happened in Monmouth county in the 80’s and 90s.

    Living in dfw area is similar to living in north jersey. It is very car dependent. The big advantage was how much cheaper housing was here compared to the northeast, but that price gap is closing.

    The advantages for this area are newer housing stock, new infrastructure, there isn’t a massive pension time bomb like New Jersey has, no state income tax, and the cost of living is still lower. There are also lots of family oriented activities such as 2 good zoos (Fort Worth zoo is rated top 5 in the country) 2 major botanical gardens, an aquarium, lots of museums ((nothing like the Met or Museum of Natural history) plus all the major pro sports. Plus there are lots of local and state parks.

    Disadvantages are you need a car unless you live and work in one of those few walkable neighborhoods. The toll roads are much more expensive than the parkway and turnpike are. My water bill is about 3 times what it was in New Jersey. July and august are very hot , it breaks 100 at least half the time. Pizza sucks. I’ve only found 1!decent place and that is run by some Brooklyn expats. If you want good Chinese, Korean, and Japanese food you have to go to the suburbs north of Dallas, although good Vietnamese food is everywhere. If you want to go to a world class museum you have to go to Houston or go out of state. Plus the nearest salt water beach is 4 hours away. We tried going to a lake beach here and none of us liked it. And even though housing is cheaper, the property tax rate is much higher and get revalued every year so your property taxes will be about the same as in north jersey.

    Another quirk is people will tell you what church they go to and how many years they’ve been a member, and the next minute they will tell you how many times they have been divorced.

    The schools in middle class neighborhoods are very good. Our district I think is nicer than the blue ribbon district we were living in back in Jersey.

    If you don’t have a career or a lifestyle that requires you to live near NYC I don’t think there is much difference living in dfw area than north jersey. You just need to make a few adjustment to account for the weather and geography.Replace pizza and Chinese with BBQ and Vietnamese. Retail is virtually the same with the spread of national chains and Online shopping. Winters are much milder but summers are much hotter. Instead of nor easters we get storms that can produce hail and tornadoes.

  136. abeiz says:

    “You think first time parents are older now because it’s a lifestyle choice, getting married later because they are enjoying experiences instead? ”

    Unfortunately, true.

  137. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    gary – did you change your voter registration to Dem? ;-)

    …remove the borders and the names and think of it as a whole.

  138. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    You so funny Mr. Pumps. I laugh at you long time.

    Just try to be open minded and understand what I’m saying.

  139. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Pumps – like the difference between the Gary Hart and Bill Clinton scandals – close, but no cigar. What you meant to type was

    In the suburban slums.

    You’ll know you’re getting close when your neighbors start selling and the new owners start paving the front yards over for more overnight parking.

    In the urban slums…..

    3b says:
    September 13, 2017 at 10:04 am
    Grim and where will the poor and lower income people fit into in all of this? Where will they go! Where are they going now? And if the suburban areas become more urbanized and I agree they are. Seeing lots of multi family rentals and condos going up in various Bergen towns not just Ft. Lee. So what happens there?

  140. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    ^^^Your road is perfect for a much higher population since it is built for speed.

  141. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    That’s what the smart people have always done and that’s how they were able to stay in the city to raise their families. All of our friends had kids in their 40’s, not their 30’s (OK, the wives were mostly 37-42 when the kids were born).

    If you want to see the opposite end of the spectrum go to Lincoln, Nebraska and look around. 20 year old suburban blonde girls pushing strollers up and down nicely maintained suburban streets. You’d think it was 1950.

    “You think first time parents are older now because it’s a lifestyle choice, getting married later because they are enjoying experiences instead? ”

    Unfortunately, true.

  142. grim says:

    The earlier you have kids, the greater the negative impact to your household income earning potential.

    If the Fed hasn’t done a study yet, they should.

  143. 3b says:

    Abeiz multi family rentals. Hackensack River Edge already started. Washington township I believe has started or will be soon. And New Milford just approved.

  144. 3b says:

    Abeiz multi family rentals.

  145. 3b says:

    If I mention towns I go to moderation. But all in Bergen co.

  146. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Now if you were raised in Manhattan by a family with money, you can get married as soon as you want, so long as you adhere to two restrictions:

    1. You have to get a bachelors and masters degree first.
    2. You have to marry someone else who comes from a rich Manhattan family.

  147. grim says:

    Having a kid under the age of 5 will reduce your household income potential by $15k.

    Not talking about spending $15k because of the child under 5, your earning potential is reduced by $15k. So, not only do you need sufficient income to care for the child, you need sufficient income to account for the fact that you will be earning $15k less in income.

    Trying to find the study.

  148. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Correct, grim. And as JJ pointed out long ago, it’s a one-two negative punch to have kids too young. Not only do you accumulate so much less wealth, but you have the double whammy of having kids attend college while you are in your peak earning years. You might as well have your net pay direct-deposited directly to your University of choice.

    I, OTOH, will be precisely 59-1/2 and retired or tending to a non-profitable business when our oldest starts college.

    The earlier you have kids, the greater the negative impact to your household income earning potential.

  149. 3b says:

    Grim and the later you have kids the more risk of being laid off. There are trade offs either way. Sorry toddlers in your 40/50s. No thanks. I know people doing it.

  150. D-FENS says:

    With both parents still working?

    I can see that being true if you lump in single parents…

    grim says:
    September 13, 2017 at 11:53 am
    Having a kid under the age of 5 will reduce your household income potential by $15k.

    Not talking about spending $15k because of the child under 5, your earning potential is reduced by $15k. So, not only do you need sufficient income to care for the child, you need sufficient income to account for the fact that you will be earning $15k less in income.

    Trying to find the study.

  151. Fast Eddie says:

    3b,

    So, all of Bergen County is going to turn into multi-dwellings with low income folks?

  152. D-FENS says:

    OMG…the filters on this site! My post just disappears. not even in mod. so frustrating.

  153. abeiz says:

    Welp, since we are sharing today. I am 36, just had first. We came back from four weeks in Europe just recently, my childhood friends have kids who are fifteen (!). When we first came over for a second prior to introductions I thought their son was an acquaintance. Starkly different lifestyles.

    Also, I agree with 3b about a toddler in your forties being a bit much. That’s like prioritizing the gold coast dream over nature.

  154. abeiz says:

    Oh, they are also piss poor, have never heard of Starbucks, have bodies ten years younger than their chronological age and are pretty effin happy.

  155. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Grim – this runs completely contrary to JJ’s “With the baby, comes the bread” theory. If you have/had a working wife, then it makes perfect sense. If you are not on a white collar professional track, then it also makes sense. In practice, it does seem like if there is any pay inequality in the workplace it does seem like married professional men actually seem to have their salaries take off after they have kids. This can be completely coincidental in my cohort as most of my friends and myself were mid-40’s when we had kids. Personally, I took 4 years off from work and gave up a huge amount of salary for that, but that was my choice. It wasn’t a problem to pick up again when I was 46, but we were definitely spending, not saving during those years. The funny thing about that period, 2002-2006, was that a lot of my friends were saying things like “I’ve never made so much money and felt so poor” during that time period, which I really couldn’t get my head around, because I wasn’t making any money. In hindsight that was the beginning of professional salaries leveling off after the dot-com boom. We’re still flat, inflation-adjusted, today.

    Not talking about spending $15k because of the child under 5, your earning potential is reduced by $15k. So, not only do you need sufficient income to care for the child, you need sufficient income to account for the fact that you will be earning $15k less in income.

  156. D-FENS says:

    Having kids later in life increases the chances of having a child with health problems. To me $15K/yr is nothing compared to that.

  157. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    gary – not until Morris and Passaic fills up first. You bought yourself some time by trading up;-)

    3b,

    So, all of Bergen County is going to turn into multi-dwellings with low income folks?

  158. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    That’s BS. Every 45 year old I know who married a 22 year old super-model has had no problems;-)

    Having kids later in life increases the chances of having a child with health problems. To me $15K/yr is nothing compared to that.

  159. Troll Feeder says:

    Just a single datapoint, but coops in the Jackson Heights historic district in Queens are selling for record highs. 2br 1 ba, ~1000 ft^2 are selling for $700k. Some are being listed for over $800k. This purchase comes with another ~$800/mo in monthly charges and of course NYC income taxes.

    These buildings have stringent financial standards and vetting processes. Most new buyers are professional working couples with young children.

    Attached single family homes that haven’t been renovated since their construction and are far from public transportation are going for well north of $1m.

    Bottom line – Urban vs suburban is a personal choice and there are no free lunches. (Unless, apparently, you live in an Abbott district in NJ).

  160. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    FEMA says (according to CNBC):

    25% of homes in the FL Keys were destroyed.
    65% of homes in the FL Keys sustained major damage.

    My guess is that the 25% is a subset of the 65%?

  161. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Wish you listened to pumpkin. Mid to late 40’s are when peak spending years come into play….demographics my friend, it’s a beautiful thing.

    “In practice, it does seem like if there is any pay inequality in the workplace it does seem like married professional men actually seem to have their salaries take off after they have kids. This can be completely coincidental in my cohort as most of my friends and myself were mid-40’s when we had kids.”

  162. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    100,000 shares of pancake in a can traded today so far. That works out to $80 of total volume at 0.0008 per share. Pumpkin must be back to cornering the market on NHMD.

  163. grim says:

    With both parents still working?

    Yes, that’s what the study states.

    Think outside the box – a parent of a newborn might not considering leaving their cushy lower-wage job at a reliable employer for a pay raise and uncertainty of a startup.

    Mom might turn down overtime opportunities or working the weekend shift.

  164. grim says:

    The study also stated that once the kids hit 5, the household would likely have an income that was $30k higher than a household without kids.

    So yes, with the baby comes the bread.

    Well. Kindergartener.

  165. Troll Feeder says:

    I changed jobs (with a voluntary paycut) once I had kids in order to reduce business travel (travel was at around 25-40%). I’m pretty confident that I will be able to make up the difference in compensation once the kids get older should I choose to resume road warrior status.

    Again, no free lunches.

  166. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Good investors don’t dwell on mistakes, they learn from them. I’ll take the lesson learned for minimal price.

    The Original NJ ExPat says:
    September 13, 2017 at 12:56 pm
    100,000 shares of pancake in a can traded today so far. That works out to $80 of total volume at 0.0008 per share. Pumpkin must be back to cornering the market on NHMD.

  167. The Great Pumpkin says:

    You can laugh, but penny land can teach you a lot about the market. I would recommend everyone start off in penny land and learn a few lessons before they dump big money on the big boys.

  168. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Good. Now apply your willingness to admit your failures to purchasing highway RE.

    Good investors don’t dwell on mistakes, they learn from them. I’ll take the lesson learned for minimal price.

  169. Grab them by the puzzy says:

    @SenSanders

    Today at 2 PM: Watch the live stream of the announcement of the Medicare for All Act of 2017

  170. Grab them by the puzzy says:

    @SenBlumenthal

    Proud to announce my support for single-payer #MedicareForAll led by @SenSanders. Let’s make healthcare a right, not a luxury.

  171. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    You push your moron score up just a little bit more every day. You’d learn a ton more buying 1-5 shares of Berkshire Hathaway B shares and holding them than you’ll ever learn dabbling in the criminal world, but that isn’t your upbringing.

    BTW, stocks I added to today:

    A ~$166/share
    AMGN ~$189/share
    IDXX ~$158/share
    MTD ~$163/share

    You can laugh, but penny land can teach you a lot about the market. I would recommend everyone start off in penny land and learn a few lessons before they dump big money on the big boys.

  172. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Whoops, A is ~$66 per share, not $166.

  173. D-FENS says:

    Huh…I have a 5 year old. Better tell my boss he owes me a raise.

  174. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    There are bold traders and there are old traders, but there are no old, bold traders.

  175. JCer says:

    Ex pat I think you’re a bit harsh on Pumpkin’s home purchase. It certainly looks like a nice enough home and I think in the current market he could probably sell it for approximately what he paid(it would be in the 600-700k range no more or less) without much difficulty. That being said given when it was purchased and the segment it is in he overpaid, there should have been price gains. So as an investment it is a poor one but that’s not why people buy homes.

    In a sharp downturn the home becomes pretty much unsaleable, my parents bought a home on a double yellow road with maybe a bit less traffic than where pumpkin lives. They bought in 1989, the prior owner bought in 87, paid 710k 2 years later they bought for 400k. In a flooded housing market the discount for the road became huge, people 2 blocks away on a quiet street lost 100-150k(15-20% loss), on the busy street they lost over 40% of the value of their property. That’s just my antidote on the double yellow line, it’s a bad investment unless you steal it. Pumps paid over 100k more than I would have for that property.

    As for the investment properties, rates are really low and with leverage a return can be made. I can make a 4-5% cap rate work really well if I can borrow at 2%. So you have loads of competition in all segments of the residential rental market.

    Salaries go up when people have kids because they need to(kids cost gobs of money and instinctively parents seek greater financial stability to ensure the well beign of their progeny) and parents usually literally do anything for their kid so in order to provide.

  176. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Yes, I wish they would have given it away to me.

    “Pumps paid over 100k more than I would have for that property.”

  177. grim says:

    Homes with defects are funny things. You can generally get them at a discount, but they get absolutely punished during down markets. If you don’t buy them during the worst possible times, you generally have no exit strategy that doesn’t involve a bubble or a loss. And, it’s generally not until the most heady days of the bubble that the defect is entirely discounted.

  178. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Pumps is just my easy, fun toy to wind up and watch hop around. It seems like he might actually be doing better than you would have predicted given his family, bias, low education and even lower self esteem.

  179. The Great Pumpkin says:

    You don’t know the details of my house. Don’t go by sq footage. It’s still in pitch perfect shape with high end details throughout the house. Will everyone buy this, no, but people that demand quality like copper gutters and top of the line solid wood garage doors will….like myself.

    I didn’t buy this on the market. Bought from my wife’s sisters best friend’s parents, who only sold because they were getting a divorce. I was looking for 3 years prior to this purchase, so don’t think I just buy anything.

    Just so you know, the previous owners bought for 645,000 in 05. They dumped over 200,000 in upgrades. They totally re-built the house. If you look at the previous pictures from when they bought it, it looks nothing like it. They gutted everything, from the roof, to the exterior. They even rebuilt the huge deck with top of the line wood (brazillian tiger wood) and rails (rails are brazillian tiger wood also). Underneath my two level deck, they put in a screened in porch, that becomes an outdoor lounge area. The shed for god sake is made out of hardy siding and is custom built to resemble a little house. He even rebuilt the fireplace in the living room. Like I said, everything gutted and replaced with high quality. The basement is not really a basement, it’s a walk out basement. It’s totally finished and does not in anyway look like a basement. And ton of close space.

    So you are telling me, back in the last week of 2011, I could buy this practically brand new center colonial home for 550,000? NO WAY in hell. Do you think my wife’s sister’s best friend’s family would screw us over….they were at my wedding for god’s sake.

  180. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    We should have a pool to guess what Pumps three degrees are.

    Most probable:

    1. GED
    2. Lamaze class
    3. Anger Management

  181. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    He took another course, Make Million$ in Penny Stock$, but he failed the final. He attended that class at the Ramada Inn in Clifton on a scholarship from Nate’s Homemade.

    http://www.nateshomemade.com/

  182. 3b says:

    Fast 1204. Yes it could. If the closer in urban areas become more popular vs the outer surburban towns then yes. Where did the poor and low income who left the formerly blighted areas like Hoboken JC and others go? If it continues into Weehawken and other areas where will they go? If the wealthier sophiiscsted folks now prefer urban then you can argue this will continue. Meanwhile multi family rental units are being built in Bergen county towns and in places that formerly had little to none. Could some of the poor lower income end up there? Especially considering the bad physical locations where some of these are being built.

  183. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    We know, Mike. Dental molding on a highway with an adultery discount. You’ve told us, over, and over, and over, and over, and over, and over, and over, and over, and over, and over, and over, and over, and over, and over, and over, and over, and over, and over, and over, and over, again

    It’s still in pitch perfect shape with high end details throughout the house.

  184. 3b says:

    How do people know where pumps house is?

  185. The Great Pumpkin says:

    What highway? Did you buy the house? I am 100% happy with my purchase, glad you didn’t buy it. Impossible for me to lose money on it, and that’s all I care about since I will be living there for 20 more years at the least.

  186. The Great Pumpkin says:

    He even added a porch on the front of the house, all stone steps and stone around the front double door. Ceiling of the porch is made from some beautiful wood. Details are just awesome in this house.

    I had a friend who owns stucco/mason company help me out big time…..I had 10,000 worth of stone put on my house around the foundation(walk out basement big foundation wall in the back)….he didn’t charge me for labor. Would have prob been 17-20 thousand job, so he helped me out big time. I also had the house appraise last year to get that 2.75% 15 year loan……700,000 and I wasn’t selling the house, they gave an honest appraisal because they didn’t have to hit some special price to close the deal. So I def can get 700,000 no problem for my house.

  187. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Wh-wh-what? I didn’t know about this. I hereby take back any criticism of that RE genius we know as Pumps. I would gladly sacrifice my children and my children’s children and be glad to have highways on four sides for features like these. My apologies, I just didn’t know how rich the features were. My bad.

    but people that demand quality like copper gutters and top of the line solid wood garage doors will….like myself.

  188. abeiz says:

    The idea of living the American dream in NJ, for twenty years no less, is just so depressing. Good luck to you.

  189. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    OMG – It’s the closest you can get to a Newport Mansion in Passaic County! What a clever investor you are Pumps! I can’t even imagine how great your every day life must be!

    He even added a porch on the front of the house, all stone steps and stone around the front double door. Ceiling of the porch is made from some beautiful wood. Details are just awesome in this house.

  190. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Shhhh! He’s never been outside of Passaic County, don’t burst his bubble. OTOH, can you imagine how Pumps head would explode if he ever ventured as far as Nutley on Route 3 East at twilight and saw where the truly privileged live? He would be no more.

    The idea of living the American dream in NJ, for twenty years no less, is just so depressing. Good luck to you.

  191. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    There are a lot of not so smart people on this earth, but at least most of them don’t know it. It’s the ones with the low self esteem that really make me feel sympathetic.

    He even added a porch on the front of the house, all stone steps and stone around the front double door. Ceiling of the porch is made from some beautiful wood. Details are just awesome in this house.

    I had a friend who owns stucco/mason company help me out big time…..I had 10,000 worth of stone put on my house around the foundation(walk out basement big foundation wall in the back)….he didn’t charge me for labor. Would have prob been 17-20 thousand job, so he helped me out big time. I also had the house appraise last year to get that 2.75% 15 year loan……700,000 and I wasn’t selling the house, they gave an honest appraisal because they didn’t have to hit some special price to close the deal. So I def can get 700,000 no problem for my house.

  192. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Pumps – You should change your handle to Some Beautiful Wood.

  193. Fast Eddie says:

    A house on a double yellow in Passaic County? Can you at least walk to a train? I’m curious to see the location of this house but I understand totally that this is a public forum.

  194. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Not the kind you can ride to New York.

    Can you at least walk to a train?

  195. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Expat, it’s all on the individual. I’m the type of individual that likes a real nice lawn, and a real nice house. House is super clean. I don’t need some giant house, but I do enjoy a house with high end details. I bought a house I could live in for life that I truly love (and I’m picky). So if I can get a 655,000 home for the rest of my life, I’m doing great with how much I will save in the long term.

  196. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    ^^^^Most of the trains in Pumps’ neighborhood run just on weekends, and you have to know somebody to get a ticket;-0

  197. Fast Eddie says:

    3B,

    I think if Upper Bergen County starts going ghetto, we may be experiencing bigger problems. Yes, the migration was from the cities to the ‘burbs. So now it’s the other direction? Why would these towns want to change the dynamics for the worse just to diminish school ratings, increase the number of students and lower the quality of life? The taxes are steep in these leafy towns and prices aren’t cheap, that we know. So, if these towns go down the sh1t hole, what next? It doesn’t make sense to me.

  198. Fast Eddie says:

    Not the kind you can ride to New York.

    Lol!

  199. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    That works out perfect. You are the last buyer. Estate du Pumps.

    I bought a house I could live in for life

  200. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Paid 5,000 extra on the side for the pool table, antique piano, and some auth#ntic slot machines. Piano alone is worth 15,000 at auctions I checked up on.

  201. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Piano is capable of self playing and has a bunch of different instruments in it. Really cool.

  202. Fast Eddie says:

    Piano alone is worth 15,000 at auctions I checked up on.

    Trust me kid, no one is going to pay the price in your head. Anything on paper is bullsh1t. That’s like buying gold or rare coins for investment – a dealer will give you 50% of what you paid, if you’re lucky.

  203. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Fast eddie,
    I looked at sold prices. Yes, market can change, but this is a classic piece.

  204. The Great Pumpkin says:

    But I’m not looking to sell or make money on it. I enjoy it. Adds to the character of the basement area.

  205. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    I don’t know, it all sounds a lot like, “Yap, yap, yap. I got a good deal. Yap, yap, yap.
    I didn’t get ripped off. Yap, yap, yap. Pinball baby! Yap, yap, yap. I’m not an idiot. Yap, yap, yap. I have three degrees. Yap, yap, yap. You can’t afford my house. Yap, yap, yap. I bought my house for life (just in case nobody validates my price, my vanity, and my intellect)”

    Seems like a classic case study in low self esteem to me.

  206. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Well if you didn’t sit here and call me out for years, I wouldn’t have to do this. Maybe I’m stressed, but I had enough, so I started defending myself last night on this subject.

  207. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Therapy. It’s the only thing that will bring you solace.

  208. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Get some.

  209. 3b says:

    Fast some of it will come from the fact that the safe Supreme Court has mandated that NJ needs to provide 1,5 million in affordable/ low income housing. And apparently it applies to all towns now. No avoiding it. Some will come from office parks that have closed either convert or tear down and build mult housing. I can’t believe where they are stuffing 70 new rental units in my town but the construction has started. And the existing garden apartments there have almost entirely transitioned over from elderly , young singles, young marrieds. To families with kids in the school. And I know for a fact there are multiple generations living in one apartment. So taxes increase and schools over crowded. Lots of these old garden apartment complexes turning over in other Bergen co towns as well. Then throw in the new rental construction and you have more impact on the local schools taxes etc so while they may not all become ghettos as you say some will definitely become run down.

  210. abeiz says:

    Don’t knock therapy. It’s all fun and jokes until you realize most of your friends are ducking out for sessions.

  211. Bystander says:

    Man, Pat has stirred some crazy pumpkin monkey sh#t today. Soon he will be sharing pictures and account information, all in the name of defending his great choices. Hard to believe this guy really exists.

  212. Bystander says:

    “You paid alot”

    -Grim to pumpkin on his “spectacular” home purchase

    End of analysis

  213. grim says:

    Shrug, if you can afford to spend $700k on a house, you can probably afford to lose a lot of money on a house.

    Most of the deals I brokered were significantly better “deals” than that. I never sold anyone a house on a highway.

  214. grim says:

    3b – You can avoid it, just stop developing. Perhaps there are some very wealthy towns with sufficient tax base to essentially freeze. However, a freeze means the existing residents bear the full cost of a debt load that was previously predicated on wild growth.

  215. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    I read two things into this:
    1. grim bought his new weapon.
    2. he knows what car Pumps drives.

    LOL!

    grim says:
    September 13, 2017 at 3:56 pm
    Shrug, if you can afford to spend $700k on a house, you can probably afford to lose a lot of money on a house.

    Most of the deals I brokered were significantly better “deals” than that. I never sold anyone a house on a highway.

  216. 3b says:

    Grim. I don’t know about freezing development. You perhaps know better than I but if a developer wants to build on a property they will. And if they have court backing I would imagine it would be difficult not to eventuall give in to the developer. The new one in my town took 5 years! But they got it through and it is an incredibly physically terrible spot.

  217. JJ fanboy says:

    I want to watch a tv show with fast Eddie as the host and ex pat, 3b, and pumps as the permanent guests.

    Maybe an internet live stream?

  218. Grim says:

    Can I monetize that?

  219. Not to be 3b says:

    3b – 3:28pm add to that this,

    – People that stay, will stay safe in their rent protected areas because of politics. Fort Lee had rent stabilization for anything over 3 family (don’t know if still does with the Sokolich Brothers as mayor/developers – they are imitating the Calabrese in Cliffside Park). A lot of Bergen/Hudson towns are run by family/political clicks that have their hand in RE. To stay in power they cater to whoever feeds their machine. That machine are people that vote, usually the elderly and people in public housing that can campaign for them.
    – A large chunk of lower income people that can’t afford the area move away. In the 80’s – it was the shore. In the 90’s – Hunterdon/Warren/Sussex county. Now seems to be Middlesex – Perth Amboy/Upper shore – old towns.
    – A lot of Bergen County premium homes build in the 60’s-70’s need work. Lot’s of work. The run down look is because they are own by the elderly that can’t afford to rehab, but their present economic situation does not allow them to replace their lifestyle anywhere else. So they are stuck in place until death meets them in a slowly deteriorating house. Old, poor and big expensive house is not fun – see Grey Garden for what’s coming. Also many are owned by former 3rd world people that really have no concept of how to take care of a behemoth like that, or even if they want they don’t have the knowledge or social contacts to find reliable repairmen.
    -What I just said in the previous paragraph has hit other farther premium counties already.

  220. Not to be 3b says:

    Grim, release from mod

  221. 3b says:

    I am no longer responding to pumps. And this time I really mean it. So you will need a replacement for me!

  222. JJ fanboy says:

    As long as I get my cut too

  223. joyce says:

    “Wild growth” more like mathematically impossible growth

    grim says:
    September 13, 2017 at 3:59 pm
    3b – You can avoid it, just stop developing. Perhaps there are some very wealthy towns with sufficient tax base to essentially freeze. However, a freeze means the existing residents bear the full cost of a debt load that was previously predicated on wild growth.

  224. JCer says:

    Pumps, unfortunately the average buyer in that price range doesn’t know the difference between cheap granite on stock cabinetry vs. a custom kitchen. The word used in the real estate industry is over improved, you might get back 25 cents on the dollar if you are lucky so 200k is worth 40k on the way out.

    My late father was in the real estate business for 40 years, mostly on the commercial side(industrial, retail, and office) but he dabbled in apartment complexes, luxury housing developments and resort properties . My sister 5 years ago spent 150k on a kitchen(in an 800k home with a relatively new toll brothers upgraded kitchen), custom cabinets, pro grade appliances, the whole schmear, his comment was “I hope it makes her happy because it’s a big waste of money, I have a lot more money then them I wouldn’t spend it like that they’ll never get any of it out on the back end, given the value of the home 50k or less on the kitchen to recover 50-60% on the back end”. He had a 2 million dollar house the expectation in that market is the copper gutters, solid wood garage door, 100k kitchen with pro grade appliances, if you don’t have them it hurts your market value but in middle class housing it does little to enhance the market value. The value(long term) is really in the dirt in most instances.

    Your primary residence is not an investment, you bought a place to live, if it ticks off your boxes that’s great but in reality it is a poor investment mostly due to being on a busy road and having high property taxes. My home had 300k in improvements made by the prior owner and I paid 250k less than they paid for the home, I in no way think I got “a deal” I negotiated hard and paid a reasonable market price as the home was on the open market and drew no interest at a higher price. If I can get all of my money back when I sell I’m good and if I can make a few bucks even better but I don’t expect to make money on it, that’s not why I bought it, it’s not an investment, it’s a liability and an expense. As for property appraisals the banks want the high appraisals you wouldn’t believe the ridiculous numbers I’ve seen on appraisals that are totally not reflective of what the market would bring.

    My point is stop trying to defend your purchase, it’s what you wanted, you can afford it and it is a purchase you made for personal enjoyment rather than as an investment. As I stated earlier it’s could be worth the 700k, my point being that as an investment it would be considered a poor one. Buying near the bottom if you were purchasing to make a profit you could have found things with considerably more upside. I looked at a foreclosure in 2011, the bank was willing to take 725k, it needed a kitchen and 2 baths to be renovated, the gunite pool needed to be redone(gunite, plumbing, and filtration), I had estimates in hand for 225k to bring it to a good standard, so figure all in 1m, I was looking for a personal residence it was not the house for me and my wife but a flipper bought it a month later and turned it around in about a year for 1.6m. So figure a 1m “investment” yields 60% in a year but I’m not in that business so….. Even normal aggressively priced properties in the right towns you should be sitting on a gain of 100-150k buying near the bottom in 2011. I look at the stuff I attempted to buy in hudson county as an investment and it has all appreciated 75-100%(I had issues getting financing on much of it), I told my wife if we bought every property we looked at in hudson county(jersey city, hoboken, weehawken) for personal use and investment good and bad from 2007 to 2011(probably 30-40 properties all under a million dollars total investment of probably 27m) we would be so rich(at least 20m in gains probably more, one particular home was gathered with other properties and a 40 story building was built on it) we’d never have to work again #missedopportunity.

    On NJ pumps and Grim are right that the NYC economy provides better economic opportunities than other parts of the country. The state is a mess and is no paradise but expense vs. earning power is good here compared to CA.

  225. Njescapee (Irma survivor) says:

    Ugly ugly ugly storm. We evacuated to our condo up in the Ft Lauderdale area last Wednesday night after we shuttered our townhouse in Key West. We were very lucky that we had minimal damage and lost power for less than 24 hours up here. Buying fuel and groceries remains a challenge. On the positive side looks like our house is still standing among all the others in our Key West neighborhood according to post Irma FEMA provided aerial shots. I read that storm surge was not nearly as bad as we had in Wilma back in 2005. Reports of devastation in the Keys are absolutely true. We are waiting anxiously for the go ahead to return and survey the damage up close. We are trying to get in touch with folks by phone and social media that stayed behind. Social media has been invaluable to all of us impacted by the storm. Can’t wait to put this behind us.

  226. 3b says:

    Oh and I forgot 4oo plus new rental units are being built in Dumont on the old D’Angelos farm site. Town fought it they both compromised and so 400 plus new rental units. The residents of course are in an uproar!!

  227. JCer says:

    3b in rich areas they can effectively stop development. The extremely wealthy have connections to the point that they can stop a developer dead in his tracks by making things difficult for them. The rest of us live in NJ where the highest bidder can buy the politicians and force through the development.

    How do we know where Michael’s home is, easy lots of details in the blog and the purchase public records are easy to search look at wayne home sales from december 2011 at 500-800k where a Polish guy named Michael is the purchaser, there are too many….

  228. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    I like it. Something like the McLaughlin Report, where Gary gets to interrupt and say, “Wrong!!!! The correct answer is…

    I want to watch a tv show with fast Eddie as the host and ex pat, 3b, and pumps as the permanent guests.

    Maybe an internet live stream?

  229. 3b says:

    Jcer Yoy are probably right on the uber wealthy towns in fighting it. But there are the aspiring towns or those towns that think they are super wealthy who will not be able to fight it. What I do know is that there is a lot coming on line with some started and most likely they are not gong to be young millenials but rather families with children. And the homeowners in those towns are po d. As their property taxes are going to rise to pay for them.

    As for his house I had no idea he bought in 2011. As for the rest of it I won’t bother. I am done responding to him. And as much as I find him ummm difficult I won’t invade his privacy. Don’t really care.

  230. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    With enough internet prowess you can find anyone. I found JJ’s house one Saturday when he disappeared after Sandy just on clues he gave here. I think I figured out where most prominent posters here lived even before I had drinks with some of them;-)

    How do we know where Michael’s home is, easy lots of details in the blog and the purchase public records are easy to search look at wayne home sales from december 2011 at 500-800k where a Polish guy named Michael is the purchaser, there are too many….

  231. 3b says:

    Sorry I never got around to going to one of those get togethers back in the day!

  232. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Would you buy a house without looking inside? So why are all the armchair qbs judging my house without stepping a foot inside. My next door neighbor, who’s house is nothing compared to mine went for 550,000. It’s not updated, has no finished basement, has nothing that even comes close to my house and it sold for 550,000 in 2014. Across the street, house sold for 1.275 million. A house bigger than mine, but needed to be totally updated in the street behind my house went for 660,000 around the same time I bought my house.

    So tell me again, how I overpaid if I was looking for house for life with all the bells and whistles. I was going to buy a brand new house for more money with less features on a crappier piece of land. Do you understand that my wife and I were looking for turnkey? We looked for 3 years and didn’t find anything. The only things available were homes that needed to be totally gutted, and sorry, I don’t want to deal with that headache. I didn’t even have to paint my house for 6 years. We just had the house painted this summer, and it could have went even longer.

    Time is money. Getting 30% off, but not being able to live normally in your house for a year or two is not for me. Give me the move in ready, I will pay the got damn premium every time.

    So I ask again, where exactly would I find a turnkey center hall colonial with high end details for 550,000? I wouldn’t. Only way you get a discount is if you take the risk and buy something that has to be totally gutted.

    The people I bought from did that. They gutted it, dropped 200,000 or more into it, and watched that money disappear into thin air as I bought the house for 5,000 more than they paid for it before they dropped over 200k into it. That’s the money I saved…if I wanted a house like this, it costs big money. It’s not an investment because premium products are not investments, they are life choices.

    If you are looking for investments, you do everything cheap. When you put all top of the line details into a home, you plan on living in it, not making money off it.

    As for the highway talk. This really irritates me, and makes it seem like you guys are just hating on pumps. A 1 mile double lined county road is a highway? Wtf?

  233. The Great Pumpkin says:

    You are such a negative bitter old man. Feel for you.

    3b says:
    September 13, 2017 at 5:35 pm
    Oh and I forgot 4oo plus new rental units are being built in Dumont on the old D’Angelos farm site. Town fought it they both compromised and so 400 plus new rental units. The residents of course are in an uproar!!

  234. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Aka I have no life. You sure you aren’t an old lady? Always nosy and worrying about other people’s sh!t.

    The Original NJ ExPat says:
    September 13, 2017 at 6:02 pm
    With enough internet prowess you can find anyone. I found JJ’s house one Saturday when he disappeared after Sandy just on clues he gave here. I think I figured out where most prominent posters here lived even before I had drinks with some of them;-)

  235. Juice Box says:

    Njescapee – I was wondering about you, glad too see you evacuated. Hope your neighbors are all OK too, FEMA is saying 25% of the homes were destroyed. I saw on CNN that middle aged woman out on the kayak securing her sailboat early Sunday morning, crazy people including the kitesurfer with mad skils out in the waves at Miami Beach during the storm..

    Let us know how you fared when you get home.

  236. The Great Pumpkin says:

    How I know I didn’t overpay….my brother-in-law is a prominent architect who runs his own business. He stopped us from buying any mistakes, and he recommended this house to us. My brother runs a plumbing business and he gave the okay. So please, stop putting stuff in your head that I overpayed. I could never build this house for 655,000. Never.

  237. 3b says:

    Whatever you say pumps. If it makes you feel better.

  238. The Great Pumpkin says:

    3b, jcer is the only honest one here. If I put my house on the market for 655,000, it will sell less than 1 day. Think whatever you want, I’m done defending myself with people who have already made up their minds. Just wasting my time here.

  239. 3b says:

    In other news I did find the discussion today on urban/ suburban and the urbanization of the suburbs quite interesting. One of the better discussions in some time.

  240. 3b says:

    Pumps my response was to the bitter old man comment. Not your house.

  241. Yo! says:

    Grim put up a nice topic, 1st poster is an idiot who tried for not malaise, I tried to get the momentum going with post #2.

  242. New Westerner says:

    5:34 – good to hear – But why double down on property in FL ?

  243. Yo! says:

    Not = more (I’m drinking on low tolerance)

  244. 3b says:

    Yo apart from the whole rent and own and buy and investment etc. I find the topic very interesting. Kind of a blurring of the distinction between urban and suburban and at the same time role switching between the two.

  245. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “But even this is illusory. A system that depends on growth can survive only if we progressively lose our ability to make reasoned decisions. After our needs, then strong desires, then faint desires have been met, we must keep buying goods and services we neither need nor want, induced by marketing to abandon our discriminating faculties, and to succumb instead to impulse.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/sep/13/hurricane-irma-capitalism-growth-economics-environment-financial-crisis?CMP=share_btn_fb

  246. The Great Pumpkin says:

    One of the best essays I have read in a long time.

    “Urge, splurge, purge: we are sucked into a cycle of compulsion followed by consumption, followed by the periodic detoxing of ourselves or our homes, like Romans making themselves sick after eating, so that we can cram more in.

    Continued economic growth depends on continued disposal: unless we rapidly junk the goods we buy, it fails. The growth economy and the throwaway society cannot be separated. Environmental destruction is not a byproduct of this system: it is a necessary element.

    The environmental crisis is an inevitable result not just of neoliberalism – the most extreme variety of capitalism – but of capitalism itself. Even the social democratic (Keynesian) kind depends on perpetual growth on a finite planet: a formula for eventual collapse. But the peculiar contribution of neoliberalism is to deny that action is necessary: to insist that the system, like Greenspan’s financial markets, is inherently self-regulating. The myth of the self-regulating market accelerates the destruction of the self-regulating Earth.”

  247. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    Do you think my wife’s sister’s best friend’s family would screw us over….they were at my wedding for god’s sake.

    This was the quote of the day.

  248. Fabius Maximus says:

    (growing suburban sprawl and strip malls, suburban office buildings, etc).

    Good American Jobs.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CHhrDsY2MJY

  249. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    No, you’re not. It is your life’s work.

    I’m done defending myself with people who have already made up their minds.

  250. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    So tell me again, how I overpaid if I was looking for house for life with all the bells and whistles, and horn honks, and burnouts, and tire squeals, and engine revs, and litter?

  251. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Remind us again why your wife wants to move to a real neighborhood like Urban Club Rd? Is that moving with you, or without you?

    Hahahahahahahahahaha

  252. abeiz says:

    There are three Polish guys on this blog now?

Comments are closed.