Predictions 2018!

This is becoming a tradition around here, so here we go again! You know how this works, break out the crystal balls and prognosticate.

Ground Rules

Predictions provided should either be for June 30th, 2018 or December 31st, 2018, please specify.

Provide justification for your forecast, where applicable (unless you are just making it up, if so, state that).

You may provide any caveats and/or assumptions that your forecast is based on.

You need not provide a forecast for all categories below.

Where applicable, forecasts are judged against the surveys/reports listed.

Real Estate
National
Existing Home Sales – NAR
Existing Home Price – S&P Case Shiller HPI
Existing Home Price – Other
National New Home Sales – NAHB
Median New Home Price – NAHB

New Jersey
Existing Home Sales – NAR/NJAR
Existing Home Price – S&P Case Shiller HPI
Existing Home Price – Other

Commodities
Energy (Oil, NatGas)
Metals (Gold, Silver, Copper)

Equities
United States
International Developed Markets
Emerging Markets

Mortgage Financing
30-Year Fixed – Freddie Mac PMMS
15-Year Fixed – Freddie Mac PMMS

Foreclosures
Delinquency Rate
Foreclosure Rate

Cybercurrencies
Date of crash
Total % decline during crash
Suicides as result of the crash

Macroeconomic
10y Treasury
Fed Funds Rate
National Unemployment Rate
New Jersey Unemployment Rate

Oddball
Anything else you’d like to make a prediction about.

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141 Responses to Predictions 2018!

  1. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    frist.

    I predict that Pumps still won’t get his GED and his grammar won’t improve.

    I was close enough to it to use it as a reminder why I should work my butt of every single day,

  2. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Remember the good old days when Pumps would say he was leaving forever and we would have three days of adult discussion?

  3. Libturd, AKA Dr. Howie Feltersnatch says:
  4. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    I predict real estate goes up another 4% and Pumpkin declares it a missed opportunity of a lifetime.

  5. grim says:

    Pity da foo

  6. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Start off with this one now and will be back when I have some more time.

    Commodities go up 15-20% on the backs of demand created from an economy that’s heating up.

  7. Njescapee says:

    I predict a lot more NJ license plates being turned in for Florida plates.

  8. ExJersey says:

    I predict the return of Harvey Weinstein.

  9. Libturd, AKA Dr. Howie Feltersnatch says:

    I predict the return of Essex :P

  10. No One says:

    I think grim should offer his forecast on all of these.
    I remember a guy “Neanderthal economist” who probably loved forecasting all of this.
    Real Estate: National +5% price change on Case Schiller, no basis other than eyeballing high autocorrelation and seeing the most recent yoy increase was 6%.
    NJ Case Shiller: lower than national price increase.
    Equities: US/INTL/EM: All down. Valuations are pretty high, though that’s not a good predictor of 1-year ahead returns. Nobody knows.
    Fed funds rate: 1.75%. That’s pretty much consensus. 2% if the stock market keeps rising, 1.5% if the market falls much.
    Other: Pumpkin, Puzzy and Ottoman will continue babbling their drivel to the detriment of all. Libturd will provide useful tips on economizing.

  11. Mike says:

    Anybody ever use coretec flooring? I’m thinking of installing it in the kitchen instead of tile. Seen it in many new constructions and renovations and it’s not cheap looking.

  12. Grab them by the puzzy says:

    @JoyceWhiteVance

    The first time President Obama met with his US Attorneys, he told us,

    “I appointed you but you don’t serve me. You serve the American people. And I expect you to act with independence & integrity.”

    None of us ever forgot that.

  13. Libturd, AKA Dr. Howie Feltersnatch says:

    I never used Coretec and have found a lot of click that is just not nearly as durable as hardwood flooring. It looks cool and the concept seems OK. I would get a sample and drop a hammer on it. If it dents (which most click will), then forget about it.

  14. Grab them by the puzzy says:

    I predict that Pence will pardon the donald

  15. Grab them by the puzzy says:

    @PreetBharara
    This is true. I was there.
    @JoyceWhiteVance

    Grab them by the puzzy says:
    December 29, 2017 at 10:57 am

    @JoyceWhiteVance

    The first time President Obama met with his US Attorneys, he told us,

    “I appointed you but you don’t serve me. You serve the American people. And I expect you to act with independence & integrity.”

    None of us ever forgot that.

  16. 3b says:

    I predict the tax law will negatively impact north Jersey housing prices. I predict Murphy will be hard pressed to raise taxes and will do nothing.

  17. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    The first time President Obama met with his US Attorneys, he told us,

    “I appointed you but you don’t serve me. You serve the American people. And I expect you to act with independence & integrity while shutting down right wing groups by crushing them with targeted IRS persecution.

    Remember when CNN used to report news?
    http://www.cnn.com/2014/07/18/politics/irs-scandal-fast-facts/index.html

  18. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    And it ended like this:

    October 23, 2015 – The Justice Department notifies members of Congress that it is closing its two-year investigation into whether the IRS improperly targeted the tea party and other conservative groups. No charges will be brought against former IRS official Lois Lerner or anyone else at the agency. Assistant Attorney General Peter Kadzik says in the letter to Congress that the probe found “substantial evidence of mismanagement, poor judgment and institutional inertia leading to the belief by many tax-exempt applicants that the IRS targeted them based on their political viewpoints. But poor management is not a crime.”

    October 27, 2015 – A group of House Republicans move to impeach IRS Commissioner John Koskinen, introducing a resolution calling for his ouster.

    June 15, 2016 – The House Oversight and Government Reform Committee votes 23-15 to censure IRS head John Koskinen as a result of the IRS targeting scandal, calling for his removal from office and the forfeiture of his government pension and other federal benefits he is eligible for.

  19. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    And he still kept his job, right up until last month when his term ended:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Koskinen

  20. 3b says:

    Teabagging gone very wrong!!

  21. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    The man was holding his severed testicle in a rice bowl when ambulance arrived

  22. grim says:

    Better than a bowl of ramen.

  23. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Hmmm… I think I would rather have the ramen.

    Better than a bowl of ramen.

  24. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    If Egg Nog was no more would the Nutmeg industry crumble? BTW, I figured out today that Scotch works just as good as brandy in Egg Nog.

  25. ExJersey says:

    I predict Pence pisses Donald off somehow (in March) Sessions oversteps his authority and both gang up on Trump to bring Jesus back to our Gubmint. Establish a new pledge of Allegiance and full the court with televangelists.

  26. ExJersey says:

    I predict nearly full employment for the US with half of those people able to pay their mortgages.

  27. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    MidCap Energy stocks are starting to look pretty good to me, including BRT’s ARLP.

  28. ExJersey says:

    I predict that N.J Enjoys permafrost until May.

  29. Alex says:

    I predict early next year that Anon the puzzy will emerge from his mom’s basement, take a seat in the backyard (currently a balmy 17 degrees in NJ), and ponder how the liberal media has been playing him for a fool over this global warming nonsense for all these years.

    Nah, will never happen.

  30. leftwing says:

    I predict the hinterlands will be absolutely body slammed even worse than they have been. Conversely, if one has the option of not needing a standard issue commuting distance colonial on a postage stamp lot there will be some extraordinary properties available well below replacement cost, assuming $50k in taxes isn’t a turnoff.

    https://www.zillow.com/homes/for_sale/2094742379_zpid/priced_sort/40.811064,-74.579702,40.77877,-74.625836_rect/14_zm/

    https://www.zillow.com/homes/for_sale/52403071_zpid/priced_sort/40.76213,-74.613712,40.729812,-74.659846_rect/14_zm/

    Check out the ask history on the last one. Can rep the build out price in the aughts was a million higher than the very first ask.

  31. No One says:

    Yep,
    Practically everyone believes in climate crisis now. Most places it’s not even allowed to ask questions on the matter anymore. Unless it’s a question about whether climate crisis is underestimated.

    It’s amazing that this still very poorly understood and poorly predicted field, so many people get upset if anyone expresses concerns of overconfidence. That is the tip-off because truly confident scientists welcome skepticism and the opportunity to repeat their solid science. And don’t need politicians and propaganda machines to support their case.

  32. Fast Eddie says:

    Let me get this straight: The same people in NJ racing to get their 2018 taxes paid before the end of the year are the same people that elected Murphy. Do I have it correctly?

  33. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    A couple generations ago it was white flight from New York to NJ. Where will the caucasian tribe go next, Florida I guess?

  34. Libturd, AKA Dr. Howie Feltersnatch says:

    Wyoming. Heck…it’s the same climate.

  35. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Nice earnings drive equities to double digit gains starting to lay the building blocks for the belief that you can’t lose with the stock market aka bubble building.

    30 year mortgage rates end the year at 5%…or just a little below it.

    National avg 7%

    Nj housing beats national avg. with 10% appreciation at the minimum as this market finally catches up to the rest the nation after ridding itself of foreclosures and as buyers fight over limited inventory in effort to buy before rates go up. Plus, nj economy finally doing well enough to support gains in housing.

    If amazon comes here, I expect even bigger gains. About to get good around here guys, a lot of economic activity going to be happening here in the next few years.

    This is where it gets a little tricky, which tier sees the gains. Surprisingly, biggest gains might be in the upper tier market. This market has stagnated for a while and has plenty of room to grow as more more people realize how strong this economy is really becoming…..and act upon it.

    This is the early stage, early 2020’s is where it really goes off!

  36. Yo! says:

    My politics prediction:

    James Bednar is elected New Jersey governor in 2021.

    In 2018, the James Bednar for Governor movement begins to gather momentum. How it happens is demand for Silk City whiskey rises rapidly, leading the company to expand production and add manufacturing workers. When the company seeks to build out a second facility in Paterson to meet growing demand, excessive regulation holds it up. Soon a shortage of Silk City whiskey develops. Prices spike, and the whiskey gains a reputation akin to Cristal champagne across the hip hop community.

    Meanwhile, the career of an aspiring Paterson rapper, who happens to be employed by Silk City, takes off. His first music video is shot inside the Silk City distillery and this debut single hits #1 in the charts. The next single also nits #1 with lyrics describing lousy NJ politicians interrupting the expansion of Silk City and preventing the hiring of inner city youth, with Bednar featured in the video rapping a line about Governor Murphy. In 2019, Silk City is sold for hundreds of millions of dollars to a global beverages company. Bednar uses his share of the proceeds to launch a successful gubernatorial campaign, winning 60% of the African-American vote.

  37. Yo! says:

    My 2018 real estate predictions:

    New Jersey home prices underperform the national average again. According to NJAR data, 2017 house prices through November are unchanged compared to the previous year – $305,000 versus $305,000. I expect similar stagnation next year, I’ll call it a -2% to +2% range for 2018 in NJ (point estimate = -0.3%), compared to national appreciation in the mid-single-digits (point estimate = 5.1% using the S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller 20 City Home Price Index). Hudson County will put up the strongest price growth in New Jersey. These predictions are for the period of January 1, 2018 through December 31, 2018.

    Hysterical TDS victims, including NJ Advance Media reporter Jonathan “So Slanted” Salant and Rep. Josh “NAR Puppet” Gottheimer, have predicted double-digit NJ home price declines caused by the Trump tax bill. Declines of this magnitude won’t happen, and when they don’t, I will reach out to Salant and Gottheimer and ask them to update their expectations publicly.

    Amazon announces HQ2 will be built in the Toronto area.

  38. leftwing says:

    “Yo! says:
    December 29, 2017 at 2:01 pm
    My politics prediction:
    James Bednar is elected New Jersey governor in 2021.”

    I thought you liked grim. Why would you do that to him?

  39. 3b says:

    10 percent appreciation!! You are on crack!! Delusional!!

  40. 3b says:

    Yo New Jersey prices will drop more than you think!!

  41. 3b says:

    Let’s not forget no more deductibility for home equity loans and helocs!! That will impact prices too. Particularly single family houses.

  42. 3b says:

    Amazon ain’t coming to NJ

  43. Fast Eddie says:

    3% to 4% rise on home prices in NJ for 2018. We had a 4.2% rise in 2017. That’s back in line with the historical trend and nothing drastic will change it. 401Ks are flush and the job market is there for those that want it. Steady as she goes.

  44. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Economy is heating up, especially our local economy. Limited inventory combined with a local economy and housing market that only recently started getting its legs back.

    3b says:
    December 29, 2017 at 2:33 pm
    10 percent appreciation!! You are on crack!! Delusional!!

  45. 3b says:

    Fast you are entitled to your prediction. But I am surprised you have totally discounted the new tax reform, cap in property taxes increase in standard deduction and eliminating of home equity credit. You used to be much more open minded.

  46. 3b says:

    Local economy? As in New Jersey?? So everyone now that just got a job or recently got one is going to go out and not only buy but pay 10 percent more. And all this is based on you own a house so it must be true!

  47. Fast Eddie says:

    3b,

    This new tax reform will do nothing to alter the prices. Those that want to buy and sell will do so. People are not going to start thinking about how a 10K cap is going to affect them. For each 3k to 4k we no longer can deduct, you might lose 1K. On the other side, a family of four and 150K income just got a tax break of 4K. We’ll see a 3% to 4% increase in prices as we’ve seen over the last 4 to 5 years. If you want to get conservative, let’s say a 2% to 3% increase. I can tell you that you’re not going to see a decrease at all.

  48. Fast Eddie says:

    And the inventory is not there, that’s another factor.

  49. Yome says:

    HELOC is mainly use to update homes. Without deductions houses will not be updated. House prices will go up due to lack of inventory. Crappy homes will multiply

  50. 30 year realtor says:

    I thought I was going to get slammed by the tax law changes with the huge house I bought at sheriff sale in Sparta last May. Accepted an offer today for almost 97% of my original asking price after 73 DOM and one price reduction. House had plenty of market time before tax law impact was even on people’s minds. Bill becomes law which should adversely impact an almost $700,000 house with property taxes over $25,000 and now the house receives 2 offers on 12/26.

    Hard to make sense of where this will really land regarding tax law and property values in our area.

  51. ExJersey says:

    Trump has spent 71 of his 346 days in office playing golf.

    He will easily set the record for wasting time while serving his constituents.

  52. ExJersey says:

    Prediction: Trump achieves sub 20 percent approval.

  53. The Great Pumpkin says:

    When are you going to realize pumps really does know what he is talking about.

    30 year realtor says:
    December 29, 2017 at 4:19 pm
    I thought I was going to get slammed by the tax law changes with the huge house I bought at sheriff sale in Sparta last May. Accepted an offer today for almost 97% of my original asking price after 73 DOM and one price reduction. House had plenty of market time before tax law impact was even on people’s minds. Bill becomes law which should adversely impact an almost $700,000 house with property taxes over $25,000 and now the house receives 2 offers on 12/26.

    Hard to make sense of where this will really land regarding tax law and property values in our area.

  54. Fast Eddie says:

    ExJersey,

    He’ll get re-elected and angrier puzzies will crawl out of the woodwork.

  55. Libturd sporting Tiger Wood says:

    Ugly finish to market today.

  56. Juice Box says:

    I predict my XRP will out Perform the S&P- it’s up 45% today, 717% for the month and 31,000% for the year.

    https://coinranking.com/coin/ripple-xrp

  57. Yo! says:

    3b, your predictions are coming soon? We wait.

  58. 3b says:

    30 year that opinion I respect. Based on your years of experience and the fact it is a reasonable rational explanation. You have a valid point, who knows. Perhaps it has not gotten three yet to people. Perhaps your buyers were blind to it all. I just maintain that these are fundamental changes for people to blindly say nothing will happen is naive this early in the whole thing. I maintain prices will fall how much I don’t know. I also believe the loss of the home equity loan deduction will be a major impact that people appear to be discounting. Time will tell. Let’s see what happens in the spring market.

  59. 3b says:

    Fast time will tell.

  60. Njescapee says:

    Loss of home equity interest deduction might bring back the Home Depot 0 % finance deals to keep business.

  61. phoenix says:

    Yeah but the 200.00 one time tax break might bring more customers to Home Depot.

    Njescapee says:
    December 29, 2017 at 5:39 pm
    Loss of home equity interest deduction might bring back the Home Depot 0 % finance deals to keep business.

  62. 3b says:

    It will be interesting to see what the impact might be on college tuition with the loss of home equity deduction.

  63. ExJersey says:

    4:32. We shall see, I predict he’ll Screw up royally.

  64. No One says:

    I predict lots of people will someday wish they could sell ripple at today’s closing price.

  65. chicagofinance says:

    Do you have a source that you would consult on this subject?

    No One says:
    December 29, 2017 at 12:31 pm
    Yep,
    Practically everyone believes in climate crisis now. Most places it’s not even allowed to ask questions on the matter anymore. Unless it’s a question about whether climate crisis is underestimated.

    It’s amazing that this still very poorly understood and poorly predicted field, so many people get upset if anyone expresses concerns of overconfidence. That is the tip-off because truly confident scientists welcome skepticism and the opportunity to repeat their solid science. And don’t need politicians and propaganda machines to support their case.

  66. chicagofinance says:

    I think people are going to be surprised at the positive impact on business of TCJA => hence employment => hence wages => hence inflation => hence the rise in the UST 10Y => hence the selloff in the stock market……. unlikely to materialize until August to October, but a selloff in January makes all the sense in the world…..I do not expect it though….

  67. Juice Box says:

    Re: “climate crisis”

    Nobody talks about the elephant in the room.

    just too many people

  68. Juice Box says:

    Cuomo now running a last second TV/Media campaign fot prepaying property tax. What a waste of money….

  69. No One says:

    Chifi
    news-opinion/news/alarming-climate-expert-opinions-and-government-funding-versus-scientific-forecasting

    Also just today was at an electric vehicle website that had an article posted about how some allegedly most historically accurate climate model forecasted the most threatening future consequences. And then wrote in advance that any comments suggesting “climate change denial” would be deleted. So they can assert model predicative strength, but cannot tolerate any lack of faith in their assertions.

  70. grim says:

    Reach out your hand if your cup be empty
    If your cup is full may it be again
    Let it be known there is a fountain
    That was not made by the hands of men

    There is a road, no simple highway
    Between the dawn and the dark of night
    And if you go no one may follow
    That path is for your steps alone

    Ripple in still water
    When there is no pebble tossed
    Nor wind to blow

  71. Mike says:

    I predict by February or March there will be no mention of these lost deductions on this blog just like these horrible massacres in Las Vegas and Texas, A motorist driving over pedestrians on a bike path in NY, and what the hurricanes did to Florida Texas and Puerto Rico. This to shall pass. Business as usual. Flavor of the day. Pick on Pumpkin

  72. Grab them by the puzzy says:

    Mr President,thank you for your service

    @BarackObama
    All across America people chose to get involved, get engaged and stand up.
    Each of us can make a difference, and all of us ought to try.
    So go keep changing the world in 2018.

  73. Grab them by the puzzy says:

    @BarackObama

    As we count down to the new year, we get to reflect and prepare for what’s ahead.
    For all the bad news that seemed to dominate our collective consciousness, there are countless stories from this year that remind us what’s best about America.

  74. grim says:

    He talks a good talk, it’s a shame he slept through his second term.

    Hopefully Trump sleeps through his second term as well.

  75. Grab them by the puzzy says:

    remember the congressman yelling ‘you lie’ during the state of the union? all nazi groups, Russia, Republicans, boomers w no college, white supremacists, Congress and Fox News were out to destroy him

    uou know very well tha donald won’t finish 1 term

    grim says:
    December 30, 2017 at 10:09 am
    He talks a good talk, it’s a shame he slept through his second term.

    Hopefully Trump sleeps through his second term

  76. The Great Pumpkin says:

    That’s how powerful this state economy is, but some like to claim the sky is falling based on pure propaganda talking points.

    http://www.nj.com/business/index.ssf/2015/07/njs_economy_would_crack_worlds_top_25_if_it_was_its_own_country_report_says.html

  77. grim says:

    Trumps fault or not, we’re about to repeat the roaring 20s. Economic growth is intoxicating. Get your party hats on.

  78. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Go watch a video of a polar bear starving to death and tell me there is no evidence of climate change. Species come and go, if we don’t figure out how to become master’s at understanding the impact we have on our environment, we will one day be next. .

    No One says:
    December 29, 2017 at 12:31 pm
    Yep,
    Practically everyone believes in climate crisis now. Most places it’s not even allowed to ask questions on the matter anymore. Unless it’s a question about whether climate crisis is underestimated.

  79. Juice Box says:

    And just like that no NEW Tunnel…. I wonder what kind of ass kissing Cuomo and Murphy are going to have to do to get the Feds to cough up the 6 Billion needed?

    “ALBANY — The Trump administration on Friday delivered what could be a crippling blow to the mammoth multibillion-dollar project to build a new rail tunnel under the Hudson River.

    In a letter to New York and New Jersey officials, a top Federal Transit Administration official signaled that the Trump administration would not recognize the agreement struck under former President Barack Obama that called for the federal government to pay half the cost of the project.

    “There is no such agreement,” FTA Deputy Administrator Jane Williams wrote in the letter.”

    http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/trump-no-agreement-hudson-river-tunnel-funding-plan-article-1.3726698

  80. grim says:

    The Feds will back a Tunnel, but it will be on Trumps terms, so he gets the credit for building the Trump Tunnel. He’s systematically undone everything that Obama put in place, why is this any different?

  81. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I’m with Grim, he doesn’t want to be held responsible for hurting the nyc economy. He has his own plan in place so he gets all the credit.

  82. The Great Pumpkin says:

    He might even give a better deal to his hometown by having the federal govt take on more of the cost.

  83. 3b says:

    Most Jersey residents dont want to pay for the tunnel either.

  84. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Oh sure! People will be drunk of euphoria in the coming decade. What a time to be alive!

    grim says:
    December 30, 2017 at 10:46 am
    Trumps fault or not, we’re about to repeat the roaring 20s. Economic growth is intoxicating. Get your party hats on.

  85. 3b says:

    Majority of Jersey people work in NJ. They don’t need no stinking tunnel. The repair work to Hoboken terminal from the crash in October of 2016 won’t be finished until summer of 2019!!!

  86. 3b says:

    Grim let’s hope that economic growth goes to the younger generation.

  87. Juice Box says:

    N.J. celebrity real estate in 2017

    Who sold, who listed, who got foreclosed upon?

    http://s.nj.com/MycHZSL

  88. The Great Pumpkin says:

    3b,

    This is where the growth goes….buy into ownership, or get left behind.

    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/dec/28/uks-poorest-to-fare-worst-in-age-of-automation-thinktank-warns

  89. Juice Box says:

    So gold leaf and marble columns in the Trump Tunnels?

  90. Juice Box says:

    RedFin CEO says the smart ones are moving away from the high cost coastal cities because housing costs are too high and employers are following.

    “SAN JOSE (CBS SF) – As the tech boom continues to drive housing prices in Silicon Valley to even higher levels, the CEO of real estate company Redfin predicts a “mass migration” of tech companies from coastal cities to cheaper parts of the country.

    “Silicon Valley is going to leave Silicon Valley,” Redfin CEO Glenn Kelman boldly proclaimed in an interview with CNBC on Wednesday, saying that talent is chasing affordable housing.”

    Kelman said the area’s housing prices and rents have become too expensive, even for tech giants such as Mountain View-based Google.

    “Google employs more engineers outside of Silicon Valley than it does in Silicon Valley,” Kelman noted, “and if Google can’t afford Silicon Valley, then no one can.”

    Kelman said the recently passed Republican tax plan, which limits the deduction on state and local taxes, would accelerate a shift away from coastal cities.

    The Redfin CEO said cities such as Dallas, Denver, San Antonio and Houston would be among his top picks for real estate investment.

    The housing shortage in Silicon Valley has made homes for sale under $500,000 virtually non-existent. Demand for multimillion-dollar homes is also far outstripping supply, and some are paying $1 million or more above asking to get into wealthy neighborhoods.”

  91. Juice Box says:

    More housing predictions…

    “Moody’s Analytics estimates that housing prices will drop about 4 percent nationwide relative to projections in which the law doesn’t exist, and those drops are more pronounced in high-cost housing markets.”

    https://www.curbed.com/2017/12/29/16808148/tax-bill-housing-market-calculate-change

  92. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Besides San Antonio, how exactly are these cities cheap? Wtf?

    “The Redfin CEO said cities such as Dallas, Denver, San Antonio and Houston would be among his top picks for real estate investment.“

  93. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Does this Redfin CEO realize how nice Silicon Valley is. Yes, all the major tech companies are going to pick up and move. Give me a break! What a bunch of bs.

  94. Juice Box says:

    Data to back it up in the curbed site.

    How your specific housing market will change

    To see how these factors impact you, take a look at this interactive table that includes data from Zillow, Moody’s Analytics, and ATTOM Data Solutions. Click on your city name, and then the highlighted counties in your metro area, to surface data.

  95. Juice Box says:

    Pumps – watch the video that plays on this link from the local CBS Affiliate.

    Even the “rich” are being priced out. There is a SHORTAGE of luxury homes, and the second half where people are spending all of their income on RENT and need to make food choices to make ends meet.

    http://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2017/12/28/redfin-ceo-predicts-silicon-valley-tech-exodus/

  96. Juice Box says:

    Just to be clear PUMPS the data shows housing prices in Silicon Valley have doubled in about 6 years. That is not sustainable….

  97. Fast Eddie says:

    remember the congressman yelling ‘you lie’ during the state of the union? all nazi groups, Russia, Republicans, boomers w no college, white supremacists, Congress and Fox News were out to destroy him

    Take a look at the puzzy hat onslaught, the puzzy media and all puzzy whining that went on since Trump announced his candidacy and let me know if it compares. The truth is Obama did nothing for this country as a whole and was hellbent on revenge and squashing those who strove for success. He was bitter and resentful like those who followed him. Wallow in your misery but step aside and do so because you’re in the way of those who want no part of you and your kind.

  98. chicagofinance says:

    No One says:
    December 29, 2017 at 11:51 pm
    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/07/20/alarums-and-excursions/

    So good….
    The extraordinary 100% false alarm rate of environmental alarms raised by scientists (Green and Armstrong 2011) is not evidence of a failure of science, but of a failure of scientists to follow the scientific method. Scientists are subject to incentives and pressures that lead them away from following the scientific method, and to instead become advocates posing as scientists.

    Most damagingly to science, scientists are rewarded for obtaining large research grants—especially from government. Governments do not fund blindly, they and their agents have political agendas. Rather than scientists as the experts in their fields deciding how they can best contribute to advancing knowledge, politicians, and bureaucrats determine what to research and how. Moreover, researchers are expected to deliver findings that are consistent with political objectives.

    We suggest that the practice of science could be saved from its deterioration into advocacy if universities used the checklist for choosing potential new hires and for rewarding current faculty on the basis of their contributions to useful knowledge. We hope that university presidents will show leadership by taking this important step in asserting independence for their scientists and reforming scientific practice.

  99. The Great Pumpkin says:

    They had a huge growing local economy being developed. The prices will level out. Do you know how much these tech companies invested in the infrastructure and campuses in these locations? They would have to be morons to pick up and leave, and what for. No matter what location these tech compsmies exist in, will be expensive. They can go to a cheap location and in 5-10 years, that location will become just as expensive. It’s their lucrative business that says they can never operate in a cheap location, they just bring way too much money to the location.

  100. Fabius Maximus says:

    HELOCS will continue as normal. I would suspect that most people taking them out could not explain the tax treatment. ATEOTD, they just want to borrow the money and are more focused on the Interest Rate.

  101. nwnj says:

    Lots of people apparently kidding themselves that the 10k SALT limit won’t make any difference in high tax liberal NJ towns.

    Most of the buyers who will be sensitive to the loss of the deduction are the ones who are paying their property taxes through the mortgage. They look at it like part of the monthly payment. When that deduction doesn’t come their way at tax time, they are going to notice.

    Absent any miraculous wage growth in the next two years, the loss of the deduction will be felt and price adjustment will occur. If people don’t think property taxes affect home prices they are delusional.

  102. Fast Eddie says:

    nwnj,

    When that deduction doesn’t come their way at tax time, they are going to notice.

    If you’re buying with this mentality, you should be renting.

  103. Juice Box says:

    “They would have to be morons to pick up and leave”

    Pumps – yet there isn’t a single aircraft being built on Long Island anymore. There is a vast wasteland in Michigan where cars were once built. Heck even the New Jersey based telecom and pharmaceutical compaines are busy moving jobs out of New Jersey.

  104. Libturd sporting Tiger Wood says:

    I think people in the blue states will notice at tax time. They’ll kvetch a little. Life will go on. Where people will feel it, will be when this market finally corrects. It’s gonna be an ugly correction IMO. I also think that the roaring teens are going to be felt by the 500K per year set only. Increased dividends and stock buybacks don’t help the common man. Nor does increased government debt.

  105. Libturd sporting Tiger Wood says:

    “The gross domestic product in New Jersey grew by 0.4 percent in 2014, federal data shows, to roughly $504 billion. That increase ranked New Jersey 46th nationwide. Only Maine, Virginia, Mississippi and Alaska had lower rates of growth last year.”

  106. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Oh give me a place, where cars are fast paced,
    Where the deer and the Mafia play,
    Where seldom is heard, a single n-word,
    And the exhaust makes it cloudy all day.

    Home, home on the highway
    Where the deer and the Mafia play,
    Where property tax, can’t be afforded by blacks,
    And the tab is at least eighteen K

  107. The Great Pumpkin says:

    How the Trump era is changing the federal bureaucracy – The Washington Post
    https://apple.news/A0Cwg6MgNQJuIi7PaQYkpsA

  108. The Great Pumpkin says:

    The era of smaller govt and lower taxes is upon us. Let the great experiment begin.

  109. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    The era of smaller govt and lower taxes is upon us. Let the great experiment begin.

    You need to roll back a good 50 years of bad policy to declare that.

  110. No One says:

    Where’s the evidence of smaller govt? Spending continues to rise every year.

  111. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “Economists and housing experts broadly agree the changes will slow price increases in expensive housing markets — though nobody expects housing values to decline, given the overall strength of the economy and the fact that there are relatively few houses for sale in top markets.“

    New tax law expected to slow rise of home values, creating winners and losers – The Washington Post
    https://apple.news/AID7kP5wiQt2jxQYoXmnECQ

  112. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I believe we are in the early stages. Next, they will cut entitlement programs to help pay for tax cut plan and for upcoming infrastructure plan. Like I said, let’s do this experiment. Sick of debating it, let’s see if it actually works.

    No One says:
    December 30, 2017 at 8:50 pm
    Where’s the evidence of smaller govt? Spending continues to rise every year.

  113. The Great Pumpkin says:

    And in reference to my post at 10:32……they are underestimating the current strength of the economy and where it’s going.

  114. ExJersey says:

    3:37 mature markets are tough to grow…?

  115. ExJersey says:

    12:03. “….amazing every word of what you just said was wrong…”

  116. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “What truly causes a housing bubble and the inevitable crash? For the best explanation, let’s go to a person who correctly called the last housing bubble – a year before it happened.

    “A bubble requires both overvaluation based on fundamentals and speculation. It is natural to focus on an asset’s fundamental value, but the real key for detecting a bubble is speculation…Speculation tends to chase appreciating assets, and then speculation begets more speculation, until finally, for some reason that will become obvious to all in hindsight, the ‘bubble’ bursts.

    I have taken to calling the housing market a ‘bubble’.”

    – Bill McBride of Calculated Risk calling the bubble back in April 2005
    Where do we stand today regarding speculation?

    There are two measurements that are used to determine the speculation in a housing market:

    The number of homes purchased by an investor and
    The number of homes being flipped (resold within a twelve-month period)
    As compared to 2005, investor purchases are down dramatically (from 23% to 13%) and so is flipping (from 8.2% to 5.7%). McBride explains:

    “There is currently some flipping activity, but this is more the normal type of flipping (buy, improve and then sell). Back in 2005, people were just buying homes and letting them sit vacant – and then selling without significant improvements. Classic speculation.”
    What are the experts saying about speculation in today’s market?

    DSNews recently ran an article which asked two economists to compare the speculation in today’s market to that in 2005-2007. Here is what they said:

    Dr. Eddie Seiler, Chief Housing Economist at Summit Consulting:

    “The speculative ‘flipping mania’ of 2006 is absent from most metro areas.”
    Tian Liu, Chief Economist of Genworth Mortgage Insurance:

    “The nature of housing demand is different as well, with more potential homeowners and far fewer speculators in the housing market compared to the 2005-2007 period.”
    And what does McBride, who called the last housing bubble, think about today’s real estate market?

    Sixty days ago, he explained:

    “In 2005, people were just buying homes and letting them sit vacant – and then selling without significant improvements. Classic speculation. And even more dangerous during the bubble was the excessive use of leverage (all those poor-quality loans). Currently lending standards are decent, and loan quality is excellent…

    I wouldn’t call house prices a bubble – and I don’t expect house prices to decline nationally like during the bust.”
    Bottom Line

    Speculation is a major element of the housing bubble formula. Right now, there are not elevated percentages of investors and house flippers. Therefore, there is not an elevated rate of speculation.”

  117. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    In New Jersey? In the words of President George H. W. Bush: “Nah gunna happen.”

    The era of smaller govt and lower taxes is upon us.

  118. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    2018 – Pancake in a can making a big comeback. Biometric crypto batter coming soon to delusional dream near you. Can you imagine how much further along Pumps would be if he had $1500 per month to invest in psychotherapy instead of property taxes? Daddy issues would be #1, Begging for validation from his internet daddies would surely be #2.

    Pretty much stating what the pumps has been saying for how long?

  119. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Three Pumps degrees, three Pumps degrees
    See how they’re fake, see how they’re fake
    He has no overseas Daddy ties
    So he fills up his life with internet lies
    He dropped out of high school, no surprise
    See how he begs, see how he begs*

    *for validation

  120. 3b says:

    And so many so called experts did not think we were in a bubble last time either.

  121. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    I wonder how this season’s heating bills are going to affect the Spring demand for bigger houses and vaulted ceilings?

  122. 3b says:

    Fast and yet that’s why so many buy the house and pay the property taxes because of the deduction. And seriously no impact from loss of heloc deduction? Not even a remote chance?

  123. Njescapee says:

    70 degrees this afternoon

  124. Juice Box says:

    End of year letter from my realtor just arrived. Spring selling season is around the corner. According to the Otteau Group Market News, NJ purchase contracts increased by 9% and inventory is just 4.3 months compared to 5.2 months last year. This might just be the best time in recent years to sell….

    No mention of the tax law changes. I will ask him what the new realtor spiel is when I pop in on his next open house.

  125. yome says:

    Nuclear War with NK in 2018

  126. yome says:

    2 Russian oil tanker being held by SK for delivering oil to NK

  127. 3b says:

    The stock market won’t like that!!

  128. ExJersey says:

    Happy New Year! Or if you are like me Happy Nude Year!

  129. ExJersey says:

    John Hussman thinks tax cuts are coming a little too late in the economic cycle, when there’s little room for much faster growth.
    “The current tax legislation isn’t some thoughtful reform to benefit Americans,” he said in his December monthly note. “It’s a quickly planned looting through a broken window in our nation’s character.”
    He said Congress should instead provide tax incentives for real investment, education, research and development, and other factors that could increase productivity.

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