Start looking to sell?

From MarketWatch:

Thinking of selling your home? Do it before 2020, economists say

Prospective home buyers these days are probably feeling pressure to lock in a deal quickly given skyrocketing home prices across most of the country. But those who wait a couple of years may be rewarded.

Real-estate website Zillow and research firm Pulsenomics surveyed more than 100 real-estate experts and economists — and roughly half of them predicted that the next recession will begin sometime in 2020, most likely in the first quarter. That’s actually later than the panel’s previous prediction of late 2019.

This prediction dovetails with a survey of economists carried out by The Wall Street Journal earlier this month. The economic growth that started in 2009 and is the second-longest in U.S. history will likely end in 2020, they said. “The current economic expansion is getting long in the tooth by historical standards, and more late-cycle signs are emerging,” according to Scott Anderson, chief economist at Bank of the West, and one of the economists predicting a 2020 recession. Some 59% of private-sector economists in the Journal’s survey forecast a 2020 recession.

While the housing bubble prompted the last recession, experts generally agreed that real estate won’t play a major role in the next one. Indeed, the Zillow survey’s respondents estimated that home values will increase another 5.5% in 2018 to a median value of $220,800. “Housing affordability is a critical issue in nearly every market across the country, and while much remains unknown about the precise path of the U.S. economy in the years ahead, another housing market crisis is unlikely to be a central protagonist in the next nationwide downturn,” Zillow senior economist Aaron Terrazas said in the report.

Even though the housing market likely won’t be the cause of the next recession, an economic downturn would still have an impact on real estate.

“Any time there are widespread job losses, particularly if these job losses are protracted, the housing market softens — even if the housing market isn’t the central cause or most prominent casualty of the downturn,” Terrazas said. “The spillover to the housing market will depend on the depth, length and severity of the next recession and, if some parts of the country feel the impact worse than others, some localized regional housing markets could see deeper effects.”

This entry was posted in Economics, Employment, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

188 Responses to Start looking to sell?

  1. grim says:

    Only thing that puzzles me is, the RE may be on the rise but who is buying all these big mansions if the salaries have’t gone up for the past 10 years..

    There has been significant growth in NJ top wage earners, and bottom wage earners, with a huge sucking sound in the middle.

    Looking at the median salary, you completely miss the fact that NJ’s wealthy population has increased significantly, and are wealthier.

    This is probably the single biggest factor in mid-tier town pricing stagnation.

  2. grim says:

    The other factor to consider is that from an economic mobility perspective, people in the lowest income quartiles have the highest probability of achieving the top quartiles here, among the highest levels of upward economic mobility in the country. So, despite the grumblings, there is still tremendous opportunity here that doesn’t exist elsewhere. These people start here, build businesses and careers here, and move-up/buy houses here.

  3. grim says:

    NJ moved to the #2 position last year, from the #3 position in 2016, with 7.86% of households being millionaires, this is up from 7.39%. So not only are New Jersey’s top households wealthier, there are more of them. We’re talking 259,000 households in NJ with +$1m investable assets. If you go back to 2010, it was 212,396 households making up 6.69% of the population. We’re talking about 46,000 millionaire households created in the past 8 years.

    https://phoenixmi.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/Phoenix-Millionaires-By-State-Ranking-and-Market-Growth-2017.pdf

  4. Hold my beer says:

    The first million takes hard work, the next million is inedible

  5. grim says:

    Combine this with the thought that NJ is currently hemorrhaging millionaire households by the thousands, if so we must be minting millionaires by the dozen daily.

  6. Very Stable Genius says:

    income inequality is very real.

    but trump will fix it after his next round of golf

    grim says:
    May 24, 2018 at 7:29 am
    Only thing that puzzles me is, the RE may be on the rise but who is buying all these big mansions if the salaries have’t gone up for the past 10 years..

    There has been significant growth in NJ top wage earners, and bottom wage earners, with a huge sucking sound in the middle.

    Looking at the median salary, you completely miss the fact that NJ’s wealthy population has increased significantly, and are wealthier.

    This is probably the single biggest factor in mid-tier town pricing stagnation.

  7. Very Stable Genius says:

    thanks president Obama

    “the distinguishing feature of Trump’s (white) voters wasn’t their income but their education, or lack thereof.

    Pew’s latest analysis indicates that Trump lost college-educated white voters by a humiliating 17 percent margin. But he got revenge with non-college-educated whites, whom he captured by a stomping 36 percent margin. ”

    grim says:
    May 24, 2018 at 7:48 am

    We’re talking about 46,000 millionaire households created in the past 8 years.

  8. grim says:

    income inequality is very real.

    As long as young men choose to drop out of high school, and young women choose to become single mothers, this will be the case. Either of these decisions guarantees a lifetime of poverty and social support. Does finishing school guarantee success? No. But either of these choices absolutely guarantees a lifetime of poverty with NEAR ZERO chance at escape. Yes, this is awful, this is terrible, but put the blame squarely on global competition. There are a lot of hungry people in this world, who will work very hard given even the slightest chance of opportunity.

    So as long as inflation is the case, these hard workers will cause top incomes will rise, and at the bottom end, well …. zero always stays at zero.

    While the dropout rate has improved significantly over the last two decades, it’s still 5%, much too high. This needs to be zero.

    So is this any real surprise? Perhaps these people might look to immigrate to China where they might find more opportunity? Suspect though, that China would turn them away at the border.

  9. Very Stable Genius says:

    “when educated people with excellent credentials band together to advance their collective interest, it’s all part of serving the public good by ensuring a high quality of service, establishing fair working conditions, and giving merit its due.

    That’s why we do it through “associations,” and with the assistance of fellow professionals wearing white shoes.

    When working-class people do it—through unions—it’s a violation of the sacred principles of the free market. It’s thuggish and anti-modern.

    Imagine if workers hired consultants and “compensation committees,” consisting of their peers at other companies, to recommend how much they should be paid.

    The result would be—well, we know what it would be, because that’s what CEOs do.”

  10. AJ says:

    9 year bull market made lots of millionaires.

  11. Yo! says:

    Thousands of ordinary, hard working residents becoming millionaires each year. What a great state. Opportunity flourishes here, many see it, and with hard work they become millionaires.

    Pundits, including Sam Zell, have for years stated a recession is imminent. Ignore them. Buy a house today (close to thriving coastal or Sunbelt city) or be prepared to make more money in order to afford the same house tomorrow.

  12. Very Stable Genius says:

    “From 1980 to 2016, home values in Boston multiplied 7.6 times. When you take account of inflation, they generated a return of 157 percent to their owners. San Francisco returned 162 percent in real terms over the same period; New York, 115 percent; and Los Angeles, 114 percent. If you happen to live in a neighborhood like mine, you are surrounded by people who consider themselves to be real-estate geniuses. (That’s one reason we can afford to make so many mistakes in the home-renovation department.)

    If you live in St. Louis (3 percent) or Detroit (minus 16 percent), on the other hand, you weren’t so smart. In 1980, a house in St. Louis would trade for a decent studio apartment in Manhattan. Today that house will buy an 80-square-foot bathroom in the Big Apple.”

    AJ says:
    May 24, 2018 at 8:29 am
    9 year bull market made lots of millionaires.

  13. grim says:

    It’s news like this that’s positive for NJ’s future. But, this is macro-trend, we’re not going to see the benefits of this for another decade. 2,219 fewer NJ households in poverty.

    Paterson schools make big gains, as graduation rates rise across New Jersey

    Graduation rates went up by at least 10 percent in three Paterson schools in 2017 compared to one year earlier, according to data released Friday by the Department of Education.

    Paterson’s gains were part of an upward trend across New Jersey, which saw a 90.5 percent rate of students graduate in four years, marking the sixth year in a row that rates have continued to rise.

    In Paterson, the School of Business Technology, the School of Health Science and the School of Information Technology posted the biggest gains among all schools in Bergen, Passaic and Morris counties.

    At a state Board of Education meeting last year, Donnie Evans, who was then the superintendent of Paterson schools, talked about reasons for growth at district schools.

    He said graduation gains were due to extra training for teachers and administrators and a system that broke large high schools to smaller academies. A credit recovery program that gives extra assignments to struggling students to get back on schedule to graduate was also a factor, he said.

    Other schools with the highest graduation rates included Bergen County Technical High School and the Academy for Mathematics Science and Engineering, each with 100 percent.

    State officials said that across New Jersey, the year-to-year growth was stronger among groups of students who are low-income, English-language learners, special education and minorities, compared to all students. That suggests achievement gaps are getting smaller, officials said.

    The increases, said Lamont Repollet, acting education commissioner, show that “we are on a path toward closing our achievement gaps and achieving excellent and equitable educational opportunities for our children.”

    The gains, officials said, mean that an additional 2,219 students earned diplomas in 2017 compared to 2014, according to the Department of Education.

  14. grim says:

    In 1980, a house in St. Louis would trade for a decent studio apartment in Manhattan. Today that house will buy an 80-square-foot bathroom in the Big Apple.”

    In 1980, the studio in Manhattan came complete with a overdosed dead hooker on the front stairs.

  15. Very Stable Genius says:

    “Nowhere are the mechanics of the growing geographic divide more evident than in the system of primary and secondary education.

    Public schools were born amid hopes of opportunity for all; the best of them have now been effectively reprivatized to better serve the upper classes.

    According to a widely used school-ranking service, out of more than 5,000 public elementary schools in California, the top 11 are located in Palo Alto.

    They’re free and open to the public. All you have to do is move into a town where the median home value is $3,211,100.

    Scarsdale, New York, looks like a steal in comparison: The public high schools in that area funnel dozens of graduates to Ivy League colleges every year, and yet the median home value is a mere $1,403,600.”

    grim says:
    May 24, 2018 at 8:35 am
    It’s news like this that’s positive for NJ’s future. But, this is macro-trend, we’re not going to see the benefits of this for another decade.

  16. Grim says:

    Palo Alto spending per pupil $14,500.

    Paterson spending per pupil $21,000.

  17. 3b says:

    I guess my wife and I are one of the 259k households in NJ that meet that definition.

  18. Nomad says:

    Anyone care to comment on building material sales? Wondering if, due to more renters, and landlords typically being prudent with spending on their rentals actual unit volume of building materials has trended flat or down. Fred shows input prices rising and also retail sales growing but that doesn’t speak to actual unit volume.

    Lastpass, anyone use it or anything similar, likes dislikes? Thinking about if for non- financial accounts.

  19. Not Bloomberg News says:

    Read this in Time, I have to re-read to understand. I think they author is saying that the efforts in the 60’s and 70’s to make education more fair by bringing in smart, over achievers into the elite colleges (meritocracy) resulted in really smart folks (lawyers, finance) essentially “gaming” the system for their benefit and creating a meritocracy-aristocracy where the successful can continue to enjoy success for their offspring.

    Not sure how to argue against meritocracy…

    http://time.com/5280446/baby-boomer-generation-america-steve-brill/

  20. Californicator says:

    Jersey May help create higher incomes but it also takes a lot of that cash back .

  21. Fast Eddie says:

    The NFL lays down the law.

    Another victory for Trump.

  22. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Grim,

    As always, excellent analysis and write up in response to nj department’s question of the nj housing market.

    I would add that there is significant wealth being passed down in nyc metro area driving housing prices. Maybe not a significant %, but it surely plays a role in some purchases.

  23. nwnj says:

    What’s very clear is that any town that rewards merit is not a place that very stable genius would be welcome. No one wants the grifter element around always looking to lower the standard.

  24. Fast Eddie says:

    income inequality is very real.

    The decision to embrace lethargy as a lifestyle and demand entitlements and assistance will ensure that it’ll be this way until the end of time.

  25. leftwing says:

    “We’re talking about 46,000 millionaire households created in the past 8 years.”

    Thought that number would be higher honestly, with wages, stocks, and generational wealth transfer all moving strongly in that period.

    “Combine this with the thought that NJ is currently hemorrhaging millionaire households by the thousands, if so we must be minting millionaires by the dozen daily.”

    “9 year bull market made lots of millionaires.”

    I’d like to see generational wealth transfer stats. Lots of greatest gen/boomers expiring….two expirations in my in-laws family just created 4 new investable millionaires in NJ last year from one in FL and none in NJ.

    Or better, a breakdown of where the new investable wealth came from – stock gains, private businesses (sales), savings from wages, and wealth transfer. Probably doesn’t exist, would be interesting.

  26. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Dead on.

    Also add to it that successful people are marrying successful people.

    grim says:
    May 24, 2018 at 8:17 am
    income inequality is very real.

    As long as young men choose to drop out of high school, and young women choose to become single mothers, this will be the case. Either of these decisions guarantees a lifetime of poverty and social support. Does finishing school guarantee success? No. But either of these choices absolutely guarantees a lifetime of poverty with NEAR ZERO chance at escape. Yes, this is awful, this is terrible, but put the blame squarely on global competition. There are a lot of hungry people in this world, who will work very hard given even the slightest chance of opportunity.

    So as long as inflation is the case, these hard workers will cause top incomes will rise, and at the bottom end, well …. zero always stays at zero.

  27. The Great Pumpkin says:

    You hit the nail on the head…..In the end, it is what it is. Hard to argue against it.

    Not Bloomberg News says:
    May 24, 2018 at 9:24 am
    Read this in Time, I have to re-read to understand. I think they author is saying that the efforts in the 60’s and 70’s to make education more fair by bringing in smart, over achievers into the elite colleges (meritocracy) resulted in really smart folks (lawyers, finance) essentially “gaming” the system for their benefit and creating a meritocracy-aristocracy where the successful can continue to enjoy success for their offspring.

    Not sure how to argue against meritocracy…

    http://time.com/5280446/baby-boomer-generation-america-steve-brill/

  28. The Great Pumpkin says:

    It’s a huge trend for nj.

    Our failing schools have improved dramatically to the point that they really are no longer failing. The impact of this will be huge in the long term for jersey.

    You know how much of an impact this has on tax revenue? You take people that were heading for welfare (taker) and now make them a tax payer (contributer). This is how you fix Jersey’s tax system and economy long term. It also feeds your local economy with hungry ambitious workers that want to improve their lot….powerful impact on the state economy.

    grim says:
    May 24, 2018 at 8:35 am
    It’s news like this that’s positive for NJ’s future. But, this is macro-trend, we’re not going to see the benefits of this for another decade. 2,219 fewer NJ households in poverty.

  29. Grim says:

    I’d like to see generational wealth transfer stats. Lots of greatest gen/boomers expiring….two expirations in my in-laws family just created 4 new investable millionaires in NJ last year from one in FL and none in NJ.

    Florida dropped from #19 to #31 over the same time period.

  30. Libturd questioning the gender of Hillary's Cankle fluid. says:

    NJD and Pumps are the same person for sure.

    I had no idea we had another Stephen Hawking among us. Wait, Hawking never hawked pancakes in a can.

    I’m still waiting for wage growth.

    Pumps watches too many movies. He is mistaking a Beautiful Mind with his simpleton mind.

  31. NJDepartment says:

    I’m not Pump…

    Just another visitor who made the right call in 2005 , thanks to grim, but probably on sidelines for too long and worry about not getting in before it’s too late..

    Just trying to figure out if I should bite now in south Bergen.. I have 20% down for a 750K house and my income > 200K ( single income).. I saw the prices spike 10-15 % for the past 1 year and its kinda hurting me.. I’m feeling the same vibe I felt in 2005 when I backed out last minute.. Trying to make sense out of all these things.

    Thatz all..

  32. 3b says:

    Lib they are one and the same. He also had a female version of himself but she left as soon as he was caught

    Grim published some promising stats for NJ especially education wise pumps immediately jumps on how that long term will make his house worth more money in his mind. As for the 49 000 millionaires I don’t really see that impacting house values across the board in NJ. The great allowing out of the middle combined with a government that is not focusing on the real problems this state faced is the real issue. Pumps is taking this information on the blog this morning as confirmation that all roads will lead to Wayne. Back to ignoring him again. At least for a while. Need a break after his madness yesterday.

  33. The Great Pumpkin says:

    My track record on calls speak for themselves.

    Who in the investing world has never made a bad move with a stinky pinky? I would do the same thing again, it was a great learning experience.

    Wage inflation is happening. I don’t really know of any place that pays a min wage anymore. When Walmart is paying 3 dollars over the minimum wage, you have to acknowledge that wage inflation is creeping through the workforce.

    You are overthinking this, I would not post under another handle to try and get my point across. I want all my thoughts recorded under my handle so I can reference them in the future. Why would I lie?

    Libturd questioning the gender of Hillary’s Cankle fluid. says:
    May 24, 2018 at 9:51 am
    NJD and Pumps are the same person for sure.

    I had no idea we had another Stephen Hawking among us. Wait, Hawking never hawked pancakes in a can.

    I’m still waiting for wage growth.

    Pumps watches too many movies. He is mistaking a Beautiful Mind with his simpleton mind.

  34. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Very good advice. There is absolutely no reason a recession is coming. Same ol bs that we have heard for at least 7 years now. Housing is not busting for a long time. There’s nothing speculative going on.

    Like I have said from way back in 2012-13, if a recession does come, it will be quick and actually act like rocket fuel for the coming boom in the 2020’s. Roaring 20’s 2.0!

    You have to be insane to wait for dropping prices in real estate right now. It has almost no chance of happening in the short term. Talking almost impossible barring some freak anomaly hitting the economy.

    Yo! says:
    May 24, 2018 at 8:29 am
    Thousands of ordinary, hard working residents becoming millionaires each year. What a great state. Opportunity flourishes here, many see it, and with hard work they become millionaires.

    Pundits, including Sam Zell, have for years stated a recession is imminent. Ignore them. Buy a house today (close to thriving coastal or Sunbelt city) or be prepared to make more money in order to afford the same house tomorrow.

  35. Fast Eddie says:

    Question for the board: I have a four wall switch panel in one of my bathrooms. It looks like this –> https://www.cnet.com/pictures/a-four-way-smart-switch-for-the-cnet-smart-home-pictures/

    It doesn’t switch on the lights or the fan as of this morning. None of them work. The GFI by the vanity is active and works, I even reset it to check again. No breakers at the box have been tripped. Did one of the switches go bad which affects all of them? Any ideas?

  36. Hold my beer says:

    2010 4.33% of texas households were millionaires. Today 5.66% of households are millionaires. I bet this is a combination of stock market gains and people relocating to Texas.

    Percent of millionaire households is higher than 5.66 around the major metro areas.

    The rural areas and small towns I have been through seem like lands that time has forgotten.

  37. Maker says:

    The people I know who have over $10m in wealth keep fairly modest homes (relative to their incomes) in NJ and have bought/built bigger homes in other states – in Florida, Wyoming, or overseas. People who make the big bucks don’t generally have big families needing 8br, 10bath megamansions paying $80k/yr in taxes and $200k/yr in groundskeepers, which is what $5m will buy in NJ. Seems to be mostly athletes and performers and a few business founders who buy those things.
    I suspect the ultra-rich in NJ tend to skew older, and kids already gone off to college. It’s hard to spend more than $2m on a 4br house, no matter where in NJ. Maybe the places on the Hudson, but a lot of those people just buy in NYC. Most employees as opposed to business owners cannot afford more than $1.5m homes tops. And most business owners have the flexibility to have homes outside of the grasp of NJ’s taxmen.

  38. Libturd questioning the gender of Hillary's Cankle fluid. says:

    Gary. Pop the cover off and look for a short or a disconnected wire. Odd they would all stop at the same time. Sounds stupid, but reset the GFI if you haven’t tried that yet, though that’s probably not it either. Also, flip the circuit breaker on and off even if it doesn’t look like it triggered. They can break the circuit and remain in the on position (though rare too). Especially if power to socket is still running (unless on different circuit to box. Electrical is easy peazy. Plumbing, you need too many tools.

  39. Grim says:

    Regarding wages – rack rate for outsourced work in the US is currently sitting at about $30-40 per productive hour in the US.

  40. Libturd questioning the gender of Hillary's Cankle fluid. says:

    “Q • I have several lights that went out at the same time. None of the circuit breakers appears stripped. Any ideas? — K.W., St. Charles

    I can’t tell you how many times someone has described exactly the situation you have. I also can’t tell you how many times we’ve been able to fix the problem over the phone. So, for our readers, pay attention, and you may not even have to make the call.

    If you have any GFCI (ground-fault circuit interrupter) outlets in your home, this is most likely the problem. A GFCI outlet is one that has two buttons between the receptacles. One says “test” and the other says “reset.”

    Begin by going to any known GFCI in your home; you can find them in the kitchen, bathroom, garage, basement, even outside. Push the reset button in. If it clicks as you push it, this is likely the problem. Go see whether your lights now work. If not, continue attempting to reset any other GFCIs by pushing the reset button.

    If you have checked all of them, check again. Look behind couches and beds. If you can’t find any more, then go to the circuit panel. Look to see if any circuit breaker is even slightly moved from the “on” position. Sometimes when a circuit breaker trips, it doesn’t move all the way over to the “off” position.

    If you still don’t see one tripped, then begin by turning off the 15 and 20 amp breakers. Be sure to turn off any computers or TVs first. Just flip the breaker to the “off” position, wait one or two seconds, then turn it back on. Continue through the breakers, then go and check your lights.

    If this still hasn’t solved the problem, then it’s time to call an electrician.

  41. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Dead on. Why do you think most high end nj towns top out between 1-2 million. In other states, esp Cali, you have the celebrity class/athletes pushing prices to 8 and 10 million, creating monster residences to entertain. We have that in Alpine.

    Sf area is driven by insane compensation from tech. That’s why you have 1200 sq ft home going for 1.2 million.

    “It’s hard to spend more than $2m on a 4br house, no matter where in NJ. Maybe the places on the Hudson, but a lot of those people just buy in NYC. Most employees as opposed to business owners cannot afford more than $1.5m homes tops”

  42. JCer says:

    Eddie, check for AFCI outlets somewhere on the circuit. If it was recently wired NEC required circuits to be upgraded to CAFCI, sometimes it’s done by replacing the breaker but if your box/wiring cannot accommodate that the code allows for extending the circuit by tapping off an AFCI outlet. Nuisance trips on these thing can happen for any number of reasons(the outlet will look like a GFCI). if it is not a GFCI or AFCI then check the wiring/switches for potential shorts, if the breaker isn’t tripping and you have a short that is a sign of a bigger problem.

  43. Californicator says:

    Because of the Taxation in NJ. Smart folks keep modest residences. It’s either that or be totally screwed.

  44. Californicator says:

    Trump cancelled summit thanks John Bolton….

  45. JCer says:

    The rich in NJ collect houses. My parents had 5(each worth about a million) at one point which they consolidated to 3(better houses closer to 2 million), a lot of their friends have 2 in NJ(north jersey and the shore), 2 in FL(city condo/condo in the keys and main residence), and a country house somewhere(VT, a lake, etc) or Europe. Add to it the 1m+ dollar yachts, NJ is no longer where they do their entertaining, the rich are largely old. Holidays are in FL, kids visit at the shore in the summer, clients too are entairtained on the yacht and they have their getaway apartment/houses, the tax domicile usually changes out of NJ as well. The most valuable houses in NJ are at the beach, property taxes are much lower a 2m house with a 8 or 10k bill seems like a bargain, the 1m house they have up north has property taxes easily double that and no need for the schools in NNJ either at this point(I need to mention the rich hate property taxes even if it is insignificant for them they’d rather pay more for a home, pay for private school and not have the property taxes).

  46. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Early onset dementia or multiple personality disorder? I think I’ll just start addressing NJDepartment/Pumps as Sybil.

    NJDepartment says:
    May 24, 2018 at 6:46 am
    I still believe Pump is on to something that you guys are unable to see

  47. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Sybil thinks that when Zillow calls the Wayne housing market Cool and Buyer’s Market that it means the same as hip buyers really, really want to move to Wayne.

    https://www.zillow.com/wayne-nj/home-values/

  48. Fast Eddie says:

    Thanks for the input guys. I didn’t have time to pop the cover this morning. It’s just that one panel of switches. I clicked the GFI on and off a few times, checked every breaker switch at the panel by touching each one. Nowhere else in the house is there power loss. My contractor was redoing a walk-in closet these last few days and he’s going to take a look. He’s been a GC for years and has done a lot of work for me in this house so I’ll see what he says.

  49. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    If it wasn’t for the word quartiles I would think that Sybil is now posting as grim.

    grim says:
    May 24, 2018 at 7:42 am

    The other factor to consider is that from an economic mobility perspective, people in the lowest income quartiles have the highest probability of achieving the top quartiles here, among the highest levels of upward economic mobility in the country. So, despite the grumblings, there is still tremendous opportunity here that doesn’t exist elsewhere. These people start here, build businesses and careers here, and move-up/buy houses here.

  50. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Portland – where young people go to retire.

    The decision to embrace lethargy as a lifestyle and demand entitlements and assistance will ensure that it’ll be this way until the end of time.

  51. Libturd questioning the gender of Hillary's Cankle fluid. says:

    Sybian?

  52. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    I forget, which position is downward dog?

    NJ moved to the #2 position last year, from the #3 position in 2016

  53. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    To be honest, my views on NJ are mostly due to the fact that, I didn’t invest enough before I moved abroad.. The stocks, man missed the boat.

  54. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    ^^^ Hey grim – Wasn’t there some rule about using multiple handles/other people’s handles?

  55. Juice Box says:

    Breaker not tripped? If it is on the same breaker as GFCI, it can be wired as a pass thru where when the GFCI is tripped it does not shut down the switches down the line. There is the possibility the GFCI is defective or has a loose connection. This happened to me last year where a kitchen GFCI was defective and the socket down the line was dead even though the GFCI was not tripped.

    In a four gang box best to look for the source wire hot lead on the first light switch and see if it is indeed hot. It may be wired using Wagos (stab in wire connectors) or the older wire nuts. I would shut down the breaker and look for a loose connections first, if you don’t find one start by replacing the GFCI if it is the first connection from the source wire and work your way down the line.

  56. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    My head is now exploding with Grim, Sybil and Pumps..

  57. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Poor Sybil, just a confused Polack in a Poke. How’s your Dad doing?

  58. Grim says:

    As far as I can tell by IP range and location, not the same person.

  59. Grim says:

    Neither has screwed up and posted with the wrong combination.

  60. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    That’s why you need to get your GED Sybil. So you can start to form the beginnings of a rational mind. OTOH, probably too late.

    My head is now exploding with Grim, Sybil and Pumps..

  61. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Perhaps another troll. You can see that it isn’t me, though. Right?

    As far as I can tell by IP range and location, not the same person.

  62. Fast Eddie says:

    Juice Box,

    Thank you for the details.

  63. grim says:

    Though…

    NJDepartment = NJDECAN = Techie = tailgate

  64. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    FYI (just that he used the word “man”, probably not Pumps. Someone my age who started using drugs early and often)

    Not meThe Original NJ ExPat says:
    May 24, 2018 at 11:51 am
    To be honest, my views on NJ are mostly due to the fact that, I didn’t invest enough before I moved abroad.. The stocks, man missed the boat.

    Not meThe Original NJ ExPat says:
    May 24, 2018 at 11:53 am
    My head is now exploding with Grim, Sybil and Pumps..

  65. NJDepartment says:

    It was me. Sorry. Wanted to confuse EXPAT as he was accusing me of Pump.. I’m not..
    I’m here to get the same information I got 12 years ago… grim saved my a##.

    Lets move on.

  66. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Ahhhhh. How about the above two posts as “me”?

    Though…

    NJDepartment = NJDECAN = Techie = tailgate

  67. NJDepartment says:

    Maybe.. just to preserver my identify..

  68. The Great Pumpkin says:

    You are the only troll on this blog. Sad, you don’t realize it.

    The Original NJ ExPat says:
    May 24, 2018 at 11:57 am
    Perhaps another troll. You can see that it isn’t me, though. Right?

  69. grim says:

    He posted as you.

    NJDept – do it again and I’ll ban you forever.

  70. NJDepartment says:

    ok boss

  71. Juice Box says:

    Eddie I know you are a manly man, but if there is any doubt, consult a licensed electrician and pay the vig for the service call.

  72. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    No problem. Now I owe two apologies. One to Pumps and another to you for calling you Pumps.

    Wanted to confuse EXPAT as he was accusing me of Pump.. I’m not..

  73. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Pretty crazy, right? Agree with pumps on any level, and you are accused of being me under another handle.

    I have never posted under another handle in support of my pumpkin handle.

    NJDepartment says:
    May 24, 2018 at 12:07 pm
    It was me. Sorry. Wanted to confuse EXPAT as he was accusing me of Pump.. I’m not..
    I’m here to get the same information I got 12 years ago… grim saved my a##.

    Lets move on.

  74. NJDepartment says:

    OK guys, What is next ?

  75. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Rubber. Glue. Google it.

    You are the only troll on this blog. Sad, you don’t realize it.

  76. Fast Eddie says:

    Juice,

    My GC is looking now. If he doesn’t see anything, I have a licensed electrician to call. I am only a manly man with certain things and dubious flowing electricity is where I will draw the line. :)

  77. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Look at post at 12:09. If we are the same guy, how did we post at the same exact time?

  78. grim says:

    If you can’t troubleshoot lights going on and off – and they aren’t LED or CFL – call an electrician. Loose connections cause fires. Arcing doesn’t always trip breakers, unless they are AFCI, highly unlikely.

  79. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    I apologize Pumps. I now see that people who post under 5 different handles agree with you. You’ve found your true acolyte, Robin to your Batman.

    Pretty crazy, right? Agree with pumps on any level, and you are accused of being me under another handle.

  80. Fast Eddie says:

    Loose connections cause fires.

    I’m aware of it!

  81. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Can’t remember the name, but some female name agreed with me too.

    I don’t need to have people agree with me. Herd mentality usually ends in failure.

    The Original NJ ExPat says:
    May 24, 2018 at 12:20 pm
    I apologize Pumps. I now see that people who post under 5 different handles agree with you. You’ve found your true acolyte, Robin to your Batman.

  82. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Batgirl

    Can’t remember the name, but some female name agreed with me too.

  83. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Or was that Batshitcrazygirl?

  84. Fast Eddie says:

    Electrical Update:

    The issue is a broken GFCI in the laundry room one level down beneath the bathroom. Go figure.

  85. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Expat,

    What value do you bring to real estate talks? Stop bashing people actually contributing to real estate discussion and predictions on this blog.

  86. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Advice on when to sell. Now.

    Expat,

    What value do you bring to real estate talks? Stop bashing people actually contributing to real estate discussion and predictions on this blog.

  87. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    How to sell for twice what you paid in 16 years while nearly paying off your mortgage in before the sale. Just did it.

    How to enjoy life as a renter with all of the tax-free proceeds. Doing it now.

  88. The Great Pumpkin says:

    All that bs partisan talk that Murphy and the democrats are in the pockets of unions. Well, they are putting a bill in place to eliminate sick leave payouts.

    Murphy has been a good leader so far, despite what the haters say. Guy has a real approach to fixing jersey. It’s a balanced approach.

  89. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Here’s a RE tip you probably never heard before Pumps: Location, location, location.

  90. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Expat,

    You are a fool. You were claiming top of the market last year. Good job! Nice call!

  91. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Pumps may have been confused by a car commercial when he decided where to buy. Zoom-Zoom

  92. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Didn’t sell until last month though. Zoom-Zoom.

    Expat,

    You are a fool. You were claiming top of the market last year. Good job! Nice call!

  93. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Just pay your 15 year mortgage and in 15 years you’ll own your house free and clear…except for the maintenance, utilities, and $3500 per month taxes. You’ll be an empty-nester living in a white elephant, still crowing about wage inflation being almost here.

  94. NJdepartment. says:

    Now this is getting interesting… We have Pump bought in 2011 or 2012 hoping for appreciation. Expat sold in 2018 and hoping for a crash..

    Me on the sidelines deciding if I should bite now.. You guys have such a contrasting opinion which makes this blog interesting..

    I’m almost ready to buy, but what is putting me off is the life long NJ taxes.. Equivalent to 400K mortguage.. WTF

  95. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    leftwing – ToS scanners just came back online. Down for a full 1.5 days.

  96. NJDepartment says:

    ExPAT, would you mind sharing which county you sold ??. Just curious..

  97. Very Stable Genius says:

    @kurteichenwald

    Trump cancelled North Korea summit (which was never going to happen anyway, as anyone w/ basic knowledge of NK said, angering Trumpers)

    No one told South Korea cancellation was coming.

    Our ally is deeply confused and struggling to find out whats happening.

    Utter incompetence.

  98. 3b says:

    And the madness continues for a secon day!!

  99. Juice Box says:

    Eddie – re: “The issue is a broken GFCI in the laundry room”

    Is there Appliance (Washer/Dryer) plugged into that GFCI in the laundry room?

  100. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Not hoping for a crash, but unlike Wayne, our market was piping hot and we needed more space. Because both our daughters attend Boston Latin we needed to be in Boston for the next 4 years, but that’s it. We now rent a SFH for $2950 per month furnished, 3BR, 2.5 bath, about 2000 square feet. Selling our 900 square foot place for $500k, I couldn’t see going up to $850-$950K when we only need the place for four years plus going out and buying furniture to fill it and decorating on top of that. As Pumps would say, this place was turn-key, including everything, much like a vacation house.

    For the record, I fully, fully, expected to lose my shirt buying 900 square feet for $260K in 2002. I qualified for a $645K mortgage back then and I was fully expecting I would be buying at the top, so we went for $90K down and a $170K mortgage.

    I was wrong back then (expecting I would lose), so maybe I’m wrong right now too. Unlike Pumps, I can accept being wrong. I’ve made a lot of money over the years by accepting my mistakes and shifting gears.

    Expat sold in 2018 and hoping for a crash..

  101. Yo! says:

    8:33 am that divergence confirms that real estate values don’t grow in line with inflation over long periods. One reason for this is land use regulation. Ironically, it is easiest to build housing in the areas that don’t need it. Many metros with little or negative household growth have built tens of thousands of new homes during the past decades, crushing real estate values. Suburban NJ is one of the most difficult places to get a residential building permit. Modest demand and less supply mean home prices here can continue to grow, even with a weak local economy.

  102. Juice Box says:

    re: “Trump canceled North Korea summit”

    Read Trump’s book already.

    That was only after the return of the hostages and then the demolition today of the only known nuclear test site of North Korea Punggye-ri, which was witnessed by journalists including CNN.

    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/north-korea-nuclear-test-site-demolition-explosions/

    I would NOW expect we are now going to ratchet things up.

  103. Trick says:

    Paramus bus driver charged with causing deaths of child, teacher in Mount Olive crash

  104. Yo! says:

    Hudson County politician deserve a lot of credit and support for their willingness to issue building permits. This helps explain why this part of the state is thriving.

    And I was delighted to see the North Bergen mayor throw his support behind a new natural gas power plant in his town. Environmentalists from the suburbs will whine, but who cares? Not me if hundreds of production jobs are added to the local economy.

  105. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    We left NJ in 1997.

    We sold in Boston and still live in Boston, we just live in the very suburban part now. A lot of people outside Boston don’t even know that where we live now is part of Boston. We sold overlooking Chestnut Hill Reservoir in 02135, we now live in 02132 just a stone’s throw, literally, from being outside Boston.

    ExPAT, would you mind sharing which county you sold ??. Just curious..

  106. Very Stable Genius says:

    @AnandWrites

    “I felt a wonderful dialogue was building up between you and me”:

    final Tinder message in a nine-week-long chat that wasn’t going anywhere

    or Trump’s letter to Kim Jong Un?

  107. LurksMcGee says:

    NJD,

    You make an interesting point. I think we should make things even MORE interesting.

    Have a wager that Pumps puts an actual raceway flag in front of his house (with pictured proof) if a recession occurs in 2020 (he has the full year window and we’ll need to define the parameters for said recession.

    If a recession doesn’t occur, I think everyone should give Pumpkin what he’s always wanted on this blog – observance of his calls.

    Sound good everyone?

  108. Very Stable Genius says:

    @BillKristol

    Trump supporters yesterday: Trump’s amazing! No other president could have pulled off a summit with Kim Jong Un.

    Trump supporters today: Trump’s amazing! No other president could have cancelled a summit with Kim Jong Un.

  109. leftwing says:

    Thanks Ex. Tonight may open TDA. Told I can access ToS tools on a free trial with no/de minimus balance.

  110. Libturd questioning the gender of Hillary's Cankle fluid. says:

    Pumps…Christie tried to eliminate sick time payouts his entire time in office. The Dem assembly wouldn’t pass it. The moment Murphy a Dem proposed it, they of course went along. Concentrate real hard and focus out all the noise. Maybe you’ll understand it. Balanced? Are you on crack? You will not be able to evaluate Drop Trough Murphy at least until the impact of all of his tax increases have had some time to worsen our already sh1tty recovery. Come back in three years and then tell me how great he is.

  111. Libturd questioning the gender of Hillary's Cankle fluid. says:

    That flag will go well next to his “Drive 25, my kids live here,” flag.

  112. NJDepartment says:

    Thanks ExPAT.. I though you were a real expat living outside US..

    In your situation, you made the right call as you now have flexibility to what you want to do..

  113. Fast Eddie says:

    Juice,

    Is there Appliance (Washer/Dryer) plugged into that GFCI in the laundry room?

    Yes.

  114. Fast Eddie says:

    Liberal males are soy boys. Soy boys like estrogen. Estrogen shrinks test1cles and grows bitch t1ts.

  115. leftwing says:

    “Me on the sidelines deciding if I should bite now.. ”

    My advice after a few decades of experience in the rear view mirror….

    Housing is not an investment, or at the very least that should not be the primary criterion. Only exception IMO is if you know you will be relocating in a 3-6 year period.

    Hindsight shows me to think in ten year bands. Most markets even with the worst devaluations recover (at least nominally) in that time frame. It is also a good ‘family’ timeline…if you have kid(s) or expect another it will coincide with one or more entrances into HS, HS graduations, college graduations….times when major decisions are made, living accommodation needs change…..

    Lastly, also realize no one in the history of any market has ever bought an asset at the absolute bottom and sold at the absolute top….

    So I would recommend to stop tying yourself up in knots over ‘investing’ in your home. Look out ten years with your spouse and see where you will be…job, family, schools, extended family if important….then buy the house you want (and can afford) that will fill those needs out to that horizon. Try to use a 15 year mtge.

    Best case, it goes up in value and you make some money off a home. Worst case, you’ve spent ten years in a place you like that works for your family and you’ve ‘banked’ a good amount of equity even if after ten years the place is par or under. Win-win.

  116. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    That is correct. There is no dollar barrier to the ToS platform. It is not very intuitive, I’ll warn you. I had access to it for many years before I knew what to do with it. I stuck with the old Datek-based tools for a long time. I’m a tech guy and I couldn’t figure ToS out on my own. There used to be something called “InvestTools”, which was an education arm of TDA. TDA would give you free tuition credits to take online classes based on the balance that you transferred in. That’s how I learned 4 years ago. Unfortunately, TDA did away with InvesTools last fall. They replaced it with free online classes and “Swim Lessons” built within the ToS platform. Swim Lessons are live, the rest is pre-recorded. It really takes a lot of time and effort to get up to speed, but it is worth it.

    I would also suggest watching the free daily Market Scholars Market Outlook video each evening on youtube. The two best instructors from Investools started Market Scholars after Investools was put down. The Market Outlook videos are presented using ToS exclusively, so you’ll get a feel for it’s power very quickly and get a great perspective on the daily machinations of the market as well. Another good resource is the weekly “AskSlim” youtube videos that come out on Friday evenings. Let me know if you need any additional resources.

    Thanks Ex. Tonight may open TDA. Told I can access ToS tools on a free trial with no/de minimus balance.

  117. NJDepartment says:

    Leftwing, You made my analysis paralysis situation a lot better.. Thanks for summing it all up ..

  118. Libturd questioning the gender of Hillary's Cankle fluid. says:

    See Pumps…your inability to remove partisan bias is way too obvious. I need not point this out for all of the intelligent folks here. But since you are an ignoramus, I will waste my time pointing it out to you.

    Christie on beach when beaches were shut down by him – deplorable
    Murphy posing in front of picture of Christie on beach with major donors for a photo op – completely acceptable

    Christie not making promised payments to fund state pensions – deplorable
    Murphy raising the expected return on investment (actuary tables) to avoid making payments to fund state pensions – completely acceptable

    Focus out the noise brother and you’ll see that they are both exactly the same. Actually, I would argue that Murphy may be worse. He came in with presidential aspirations. Christie at least had a couple of good years where he pushed through some real toothy legislation such as pension reform and the property tax cap. So far all Murphy’s done is raise every tax he could and pass completely useless feel good legislation. Next week, sanctuary city crap. That will help our recovery.

    Anyone with half a brain can see his plan. Tax the sh1t out of NJ’s (already the highest taxed state) businesses and the wealthy accelerating the exit of both, but not before making himself look real good in the short-run (credit upgrades) before the sh1t completely collapses.

    Murphy is such an idiot that he doesn’t realize that even his own Dem assembly is THIS close to turning on him. This is what happens when you pay your way to get past all of those in line for the job. And you call this balanced. Sheesh you are a simpleton.

  119. leftwing says:

    TY Ex

    YW NJDept, good luck

  120. Californicator says:

    1:47 – Eddie – just when you thought he could not get Gayer…..

  121. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Oh – and there is a built in ToS paper money trading platform, so you can practice trades, including options and futures and you get filled like you would with real money, based on actual market prices in real time.

  122. Libturd questioning the gender of Hillary's Cankle fluid. says:

    I swear NJD. You sound exactly like Pumps. Though Leftwing is spot on. I would add one other option which worked great for us. Pursue an owner occupied multi-family property. It will make the 15 year mortgage that much easier to pay off and it provides tons of flexibility to move up in ten years or so. It’s a hard sell to the wife for sure, but when you run the numbers, you could probably afford a much, much nicer place than you could without the additional income. Plus, the write-offs are the bread and butter.

  123. Fast Eddie says:

    Oh look, a fat f.uck, snowflake soy boy having trouble holding a toy gun while trying to prove he’s tough. I bet he’s got real big bitch t1ts:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0eYWn8-VgzU

  124. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    This is key. If you do end up with a 30, try to overpay the heck out of it. I wonder how many people know that a 30 year mortgage doesn’t have half the principal paid back until year 22. Anything you overpay comes right off principal. I double paid our 30 year mortgage every month for many years straight. Before you know it you are knocking off more than 50% principal on each payment.

    Try to use a 15 year mtge.

  125. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    ^^^more than 50% principal even if you drop back to your regular payment, I mean.

  126. Libturd questioning the gender of Hillary's Cankle fluid. says:

    ExPat,

    I know a number of people who have fallen for the extra payment a year plan administered from the bank holding the mortgage who (get this), charges a fee to break the the year into 13 even payments!!!

    I also have a lot of friends who purchased Gerber Insurance to insure their (healthy) babies. Pumps? Did you do either of these?

  127. NJDepartment says:

    Libturd,

    I’m all for 2-family and of-course wife isn’t interested.. But I need to give it a serious thought.

    I’m assuming you can still deduct property tax as business expense? ??

  128. Very Stable Genius says:

    @TVietor08

    This North Korea fiasco shows how much Trump gets graded on a curve. He accomplished nothing. The process was obviously flawed. But pundits rushed to prematurely praise him to balance out all the well-deserved criticism that came before.

  129. Zarathustra says:

    USA Today with an article that Pumpkin will take as evidence of his brilliance:
    https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/personalfinance/columnist/2018/05/24/real-estate-heres-how-much-you-can-expect-earn-landlord/618206002/

    Look at these assumptions – there is real estate offering a 9.7% gross rental yield in NJ?:
    “An example cited by the authors assumes a 2,000-square-foot home bought for $200,000 would generate annual rental income of about $19,400.
    Representative annual expenses include $2,700 for property taxes, $1,300 for repairs/maintenance, $1,150 for property management, $810 for insurance, $810 for HOA fees, $625 for vacancies/credit losses and $370 in leasing fees.
    That would leave an owner with $11,635 after expenses.”

  130. Libturd questioning the gender of Hillary's Cankle fluid. says:

    NJD…Just make it an LLC. Be your own Trump.

  131. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    This North Korea fiasco shows how much Trump gets graded on a curve. He accomplished nothing. The process was obviously flawed. But pundits rushed to prematurely praise him to balance out all the well-deserved criticism that came before.

    Nothing?

    https://nypost.com/2018/05/09/american-detainees-freed-by-north-korea-thankful-to-come-home/

  132. Libturd questioning the gender of Hillary's Cankle fluid. says:

    NJD – Though it REALLY, REALLY helps to be handy. Otherwise, the plumber and the electrician will eat into a lot of your gains. Old Time/Life books have saved me countless thousands over the years. Replacing a GFI in my multi this afternoon. Cost me $7 and three minutes of time. Electrician? $150 minimum.

  133. Fast Eddie says:

    Give unstable p.ussy a soy bottie for trying real hard.

  134. grim says:

    I bet $100 this North Korea back and forth is completely manufactured.

    Both sides need to look like bad asses, neither side wants to be seen as conceding. This is how you do it.

  135. D-FENS says:

    Unconstitutional

    grim says:
    May 24, 2018 at 12:09 pm
    He posted as you.

    NJDept – do it again and I’ll ban you forever.

  136. grim says:

    This is a dictatorship.

  137. Juice Box says:

    Eddie,

    Sounds like your bathroom and laundry room is on the same branch circut.

    The “four wall switch panel in one of my bathrooms” should not be wired to the same branch circuit as the laundry room.

    NEC code is a seperate 20 amp branch circuit for the Laundry room and GFCI depending on the location of the receptacle outlet itself usually 6 ft from wash basin/sink etc.

    “Section 210.52(F) requires a receptacle outlet to be installed for the laundry area and it must be supplied by a 20-ampere branch circuit in accordance with 210.11(C)(2)”

    If you are running the washer and gas dryer off same 20 amp outlet that is fine, however branching off another room not so much.

    Call the electrician…..

  138. chicagofinance says:

    My idea of Arb…….

    Use Amazon Prime CC at Whole Foods, receive 5% discount……. return some stuff and only have 1% backed out of monthly points accumulation……

    Smells Like Victory

  139. Bystander says:

    It is glory times if you buy anything at Amazon. I bought a $4 can of glue which they arrived 4 days late. I got a $10 credit. Only at AMZ. I just read that they canceling accountn for those gaming system with returns. It is so easy to return nearly anything right now. Complain a little and they bend over backwards.

  140. Fast Eddie says:

    Juice,

    Let me look into it. Thanks for the info.

  141. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Lib – I think this varies from state to state and mortgage servicer. My mortgage was sold to Freddie Mac but was ultimately serviced by Chase. Chase, to their credit, details in each statement how the additional payments were applied. Maybe because I started off double-paying from day 1 they knew not to mess with me? Anyway, my additional always came right off principal. In addition, our mortgage was strictly P&I. No taxes, no insurance (condo), no escrow, and certainly no PMI, so there really wasn’t any math for the servicer to hide behind. Any extra money just came right off “P”.

    ExPat,

    I know a number of people who have fallen for the extra payment a year plan administered from the bank holding the mortgage who (get this), charges a fee to break the the year into 13 even payments!!!

  142. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Funny thing about insurance. We used to have renter’s insurance 20 years ago. When we got engaged I even paid up for an extra rider on wife’s $11K engagement ring (1.25 caret, ideal Tolkowsky dimensions, VVS1, E colored, GIA certified with Sarin report). When we bought the condo, obviously the building is covered by the insurance on the master deed, but you should maintain renter’s insurance, even though you are an owner, on your unit’s contents. I decided to say F it. We haven’t directly paid any type of insurance on our home’s crap since 2002. I figure that’s saved me a pretty penny by now. Now, if I bought a SFH, I would of course have insurance and cram well negotiated riders and umbrella sh1t for cars…but since I don’t…I won’t.

  143. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    ^^^ I might be wrong, could be VS2. Anyway, a really, really, nice ring.

  144. JCer says:

    Juice what version of the NEC was that added in? I’m thinking sometime in the 90’s maybe even 1999. I suspect Eddie’s wiring predates that section of the code and it is interesting how town inspectors and electricians usually aren’t fully compliant with the latest version of the NEC, yet pass inspection(they tend to be working of 1-2 versions ago most times). The NEC has a lot of great practices that improve the safety of electricity but it doesn’t mean that wiring not up to the latest code is some how unsafe, there is a huge margin of error in the code and people almost never update their electrical systems to comply after the fact even if it is possible without rewiring.

    To Grim’s point Arc Faults are probably the biggest risk in your electrical system, between errant nails, rodents chewing on wires, sloppy wiring, fatigued wiring, etc there are so many places arcs can occur and lead to fires(this has been in the NEC since 1999, my circa 2005 wiring didn’t have them, i see the permit sign-offs in the box). The best thing you can do to ensure safety in your home is to replace your panel with a newer panel with CAFCI and GFCI breakers(don’t get GE their breakers and panel stink, I put CAFCI’s in my GE panel I switched from GE brand to siemens(who made GE’s before they had their own). Juice is probably going to point out that it’s a code violation but it beats having to replace the panel and the siemens breakers really do have fewer nuisance trips(the eat breakers might be better still but since I have siemens sub panels only needing one kind of breaker simplifies things). They are a pain sometimes because old vacuums and power tools trip them but they do really work, if something is wired incorrectly and is a fire hazard they do catch it, i had to rewire 2 circuits after changing the breakers, might have prevent a fire.

  145. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    If I had to count down our top few most valuable possessions inside the house (excluding children) it would probably go like this:

    1. Wife’s engagement ring.
    2. My Tom Kellogg Spectrum Titanium Custom bicycle.
    3. Gibson ES-335 guitar.

    Damn. I forgot bullion, that should be at the top. I should go back out to the range or hide that fire-safe somewhere else;-) Anyway, you’d have to sort through all of the Target-bought goods to find any of the good stuff. We don’t own anything to write home about.

  146. JCer says:

    Expat, I think conforming loans are required to have no prepayment penalty and all payments above the payment amount automatically get applied to principal. I pretty much pay a round dollar amount on my mortgage so any escrow adjustments don’t really effect me so I overpay by $1-$5 on each payment so I don’t need to change it often and every month from BOA I see principle applied could be .40 could be $2 but anything over the payment is applied to principal. I’ve double paid my mortgage before through bill pay and the bank just applies the 2nd payment as principal.

  147. grim says:

    Arc fault breakers for the bedrooms would save more lives than sprinklers.

  148. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Chi – what was that US mint arb from 10 years ago? It was something like buy a a box of Sacagawea dollars from the mint on your best rewards credit card, get free shipping from the mint, carry the box down to the bank and deposit it in your account, pay off your credit card with the money even before the bill comes.

    Found it:
    http://www.businessinsider.com/us-mint-ends-the-dollar-coin-scam-for-airline-miles-2011-7

    My idea of Arb…….

    Use Amazon Prime CC at Whole Foods, receive 5% discount……. return some stuff and only have 1% backed out of monthly points accumulation……

    Smells Like Victory

  149. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    I had some stupid little thing I used to do with one of my credit cards about 15 years ago, but it amused me. I was surprised what happened.

    I think I had a Sears MasterCard in good standing and they did this to me at least twice:

    1. We were away from home on a family trip, maybe Boston to NJ and I used the card for gas a couple times.
    2. Came back to Boston and used the card in a restaurant and it was declined.

    I eventually found out that if they see your car being used out of state, like at a gas station, they call your home phone to verify the purchase. If they don’t reach you, they leave no message, but cut your credit to $50 (or something similar).

    When I got denied at a restaurant I called them up and found out that this was their policy. I asked them how I could legitimately use their credit card for gas purchases if you were only going to call my home phone when I wasn’t there? They just replied that that was their policy.

    OK. I’m going to stop using that card…much. Here’s what I did. I would use that card to buy something like a double cheeseburger at McD’s once a month. Next, I would early pay that card but not completely. If the double cheese was a $1.25, I would early pay online $1.10, forcing them to send me a paper bill for a 15 cent balance.

    I was surprised what happened next. Instead of spending the postage to send me a bill for 15 cents, they forgave the 15 cents (which I could see online) and didn’t send me a bill.

    I kept doing the same, but bringing down the payment by a couple cents each month. I finally found the breaking point and just kept enjoying a subsidized cheeseburger every month for about the next year. When the financial crisis hit they canceled my card.

    BTW, I think that was a bit of collusion too. When banks tightened up credit post 2008, I compared notes with friends. It seemed like everyone I knew, including myself, got credit cards canceled by exactly one major bank. I think my canceler was Citi. That’s a really smart way to do it. Rather than have you be pissed off at every bank that cuts your credit, why not have the big banks do a sort of fantasy credit draft with only one cutting your credit and the other banks respectfully don’t?

  150. NJDepartment says:

    Well, how about cashback.. I have a 8k cashback from discover for using since 8 years..
    I haven;t pain a dime in interest..

  151. JCer says:

    Expat, I carry so much insurance it boggles my mind and empties my wallet. Chubb and my agent who I trust(he’s a family friend and he usually gets us great premiums) have decided an appropriate level of coverage includes an umbrella in excess of my net worth, a masterpiece home policy(what ever that is) that includes riders for mold and water damage for a totally replacement value of 3m on the home, 300k in contents, a policy for my wife’s engagement ring, a policy for my rental condo, comprehensive coverage for 2 cars….it only costs me a cool 11k a year and I have never claimed and likely will not and in order to get such a great premium( my home was inspected and chubb required that I put in a comprehensive alarm system for fire, security, and leaks) .

    Insurance is a racket, I’ve de-risked my home to the point that a loss is highly unlikely above an beyond the deductible, and a total loss is near impossible. Lets see my house is solid stone and steel I-Beams, I have wood joists in my roof and for the floors in individual rooms but the center of my house is held up by i-beams buried in the walls and concrete columns in the basement so a fire is very unlikely to cause total loss, there isn’t enough to burn besides contents, floors, etc to destroy the structure. I’ve got 8 interconnected smoke alarms connected to central station monitoring, 4 heat detectors too. I’ve got leak detectors and freeze detectors, they trigger even when the alarm is deactivated and will cut the water to the house and i’ll get a call from monitoring, when the alarm is active the water is cut by default. I live on a hill and my basement is full of drains, it doesn’t seem possible to flood it. My house has plaster walls so leaks are pretty much incapable of creating mold(lime plaster channels water out and the gypsum Plaster of Paris literally dissolves and falls off/kind of bubbles up it takes a lot of water to kill old lime plaster). I had chimney leak during a severe storm it leaked a bunch of water(5gals, basically filed a bucket), didn’t cause much damage, a new flashing and while I was at it replacing all the chimney flashing resolved the leak, my plasterer charged me like $300 to chip off the bad finish coat that was damaged, apply a new top coat, and paint, it took him less than a day to fix, drywall would have been a much bigger ordeal. Chubb had the policy for the previous owners(the people who owned it before the person I bought it from) who owned the house for like 50 years and I don’t think there was ever a claim. Statistically speaking it is very low risk yet because of the high cost of construction they force me to carry this huge policy they’ll never pay out on, replacement cost is insane, if the damage is in excess of 1.5m write me a check for 1.5 I’ll give them the deed and we can call it a day, i’ll go buy a new house with the proceeds. Replacement value of a million dollar home at 3m is nuts my house is worth more destroyed than standing.

  152. JCer says:

    ExPat, Citi is as bad at credit cards as they are at anything else. What you are describing with the shutdown for out of state purchases sounds like them. My wife works on the waterfront in JC and her employer has an office across the river and a ferry between the two. One day she eats lunch in Jersey City, goes to a meeting in the NY office buys a coffee at Starbucks goes to buy a ferry ticket back using her city card only for it to be declined. She calls them and is like what the f, I had to wait in a cash line for a ferry ticket because my card was declined. They told her about the state thing you had two transactions in different states within an hour or half hour and we shut down your card for suspicion of fraud. She was annoyed places within minutes of each other should not trigger an alert like that if you buy something in Westchester and then stop for gas in CT 10 minutes later they shouldn’t shut the card down it’s totally a normal pattern. so while Amex and Discover have advanced algorithms or a service they buy from someone…i’m convinced citi has some process on the mainframe If Purchase within 30 minutes of previous purchase and STATE DIFFERENT ABEND. Citi as an entity desrves to be out of business thanks to the government they are still torturing their customers.

  153. Juice Box says:

    Happy hour at DJs in Belmar?

  154. NJDepartment says:

    Folks,

    Zillow says the biggest climb in 12 years in US house prices..

    https://www.zillow.com/research/april-2018-market-report-20030/

    Also first post from grim 13 years ago.

    http://njrereport.com/index.php/2005/09/21/northern-nj-hits-top/

    Looks like DejaVu again..

  155. Californicator says:
  156. Grim says:

    California runs a year ahead of us.

    Wait till LA flattens out and begins to dip, and you’ll have a years warning of the top.

  157. NJdepartment. says:

    Agreed, I believe SFO market goes super hot and then it starts. if I remember correctly.

    What bothers me is the Las vegas market hitting 12% hike… This is a big red flag.

  158. NJdepartment. says:

    CA, AZ, NV,FL, NJ, NY,MA, DC and Maryland, these are the markets that went red hot just before 2006.

    All these markets are super hot today compared to 2005-6. I think we haven;t hit top yet. I expect this to be next year..

  159. Grim says:

    Housing will run longer than the economy will.

    If we don’t shit the bed and head into recession, we keep moving.

    We need a solid stock market crash to push the newbies into housing as a safe investment, just like after the dot com bust, 2001-2006.

  160. Grim says:

    Because to me, housing doesn’t at all seem like a leading factor right now, feels more like it’s getting pulled along.

  161. PumpkinFace says:

    Are you saying you never posted under a different name (not counting Michael)?

    The Great Pumpkin says:
    May 24, 2018 at 10:20 am

    I would not post under another handle to try and get my point across.

  162. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Big difference from then and now…today’s market supply is tight. In 2005, supply was coming on too fast. For how tight the supply is today, the prices are not rising out of control. If it were bubble mania with this tight of a supply, you would see 30% gains at the minimum.

    Ultimate barometer…..Look at yourself, are you willing to push the prices up yet when you purchase? No. Consider yourself as an avg in the market. Majority are still remaining cool and calm when it comes to purchasing. Nothing is telling me this is a bubble.

    You also have to account for how long this housing market was beaten down for. You need a lot more places to reach 2006 prices before we start calling for bubbles. I’m telling you, this party didn’t even get started yet. We have a ways to go.

    The ultra tight supply, combined with more people stepping into the buyer’s pool by the day, says prices aren’t going down anytime soon and this party is just getting started.

    NJDepartment says:
    May 24, 2018 at 5:44 pm
    Folks,

    Zillow says the biggest climb in 12 years in US house prices..

    https://www.zillow.com/research/april-2018-market-report-20030/

    Also first post from grim 13 years ago.

    http://njrereport.com/index.php/2005/09/21/northern-nj-hits-top/

    Looks like DejaVu again

  163. Very Stable Genius says:

    @MaxBoot

    Trump doesn’t know what he’s doing and what he’s talking about, and therefore he can’t get a “great deal” from China, North Korea or anyone else.
    If he writes a book about his White House years it should be called

    “The Art of the Debacle: Me”

  164. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    JCer – I’m pretty sure that card was Citi. I never applied for it. I had a generic Sears department store credit card and then Sears sent me a MasterCard and said, “Use this instead.” I never put much on it, just incidentals like out of state gas and an occasional dinner because the credit limit was pretty low so I figured it was low risk when outside of my usual orbit. After the cancelled me in 2008 I said good riddance. Then a few years later they sent me a 0% card with some cash rewards if I spent a few grand within a few months. Charged it up, took my reward, paid it off before the 0% ran out. All I have to do is not use it for a about 6 months and they send me another 0% offer, which I always take. I miss the pre-2008 days when BofA would send no-fee checks. I would deposit them directly into my Schwab account and invest $18K or so of free money and then pay it back with not a penny of fee or interest a year later or whatever the period was. Good times, good times.

  165. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    You forgot HI

    CA, AZ, NV,FL, NJ, NY,MA, DC and Maryland, these are the markets that went red hot just before 2006.

  166. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Everyone knows that. I didn’t become pumpkin to hide my identity.

    PumpkinFace says:
    May 24, 2018 at 6:37 pm
    Are you saying you never posted under a different name (not counting Michael)?

  167. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Njd,

    This is my god honest belief. Buy now, or you will regret it big time. I don’t think you will ever see these prices again. Inflation is coming. Boom period is coming. It’s now or never if you want to buy in southern bc.

    Just look at the higher mortgage rates….did it stop price gains?

    Just look at tax law….did it stop price gains?

    Just look at higher prices….did it stop price gains?

    The writing on the wall is there for those who wish to see it.

    We are living in a very special economic boom period that comes around once a lifetime. Take advantage or regret it for the rest of your life. This is no time to be scared or calling for peaks in the markets.

  168. Grim says:

    Yeah I don’t think that

  169. NJDepartment says:

    Why would Vegas market go up 17% YOY..and now sales have dropped for pastb30 says..Something is up

  170. Fabius Maximus says:

    One for the hockey fans. The kid is a good goalie. Hope he rehabs quickly and gets back on the ice.

    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/hospitalized-11-year-old-boy-injured-in-new-jersey-school-bus-crash-receives-gift-from-hockey-idol/

  171. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    I’m pretty sure that is the site that they accidentally blew up already about 4 or 5 weeks ago. I saw a satellite image around then showing a gaping hole in the top of the mountain. I can’t find the image right now, but here is the story:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/apr/26/north-korea-nuclear-test-site-collapse-may-be-out-of-action-china

    North Korea just blew up all of it’s nuclear site?

  172. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    2005 : Buy now or be priced out forever

    Pumps 2018: Buy now, or you will regret it big time.

  173. Not Bloomberg News says:

    The site was heavily damaged in their last test, it is also “speculated” that several hundred were killed, possibly including their lead scientists. Would explain his overtures since he lost future bomb testing/making capability..at least for a few years.

  174. 1987 Condo says:

    In case it comes up, neither of my kids went to Boston Latin, too far and not smart enough. My wife’s engagement ring was $400. But, I did payoff the mortgage and retired last Fall at age 55! (That fulfilled the promise I made to myself sitting at a desk at Pru in Newark in 1981 reviewing check registers with Esther.)

  175. Yo! says:

    Grim 8:20 pm – Don’t trust ink spilled by Salant. He is Democrat operative and Gottheimer “NAR puppet” spokeswoman. Haters Salant and Gottheimer said real estate prices would be crashing this spring. So wrong, but we won’t see a retraction.

  176. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Congrats ’87 Condo! I wrote down circa 1986 that I would retire by age 39 with $5 million liquid. I didn’t get anywhere near that mark that early. My rough calculations were that with $5 mil I could generate 10% per year in return, pay my taxes and shelter income and end up with $365,000 per year in income (woeful calculations, btw). My plan was to actively spend $30,000 every month from age 40 on and not deviate from that plan.

    I still think that if you don’t have a spending plan, as opposed to your more generic and common capital preservation plan, you’ll end up not being able to switch out of “make a buck” mode into “spend a buck” mode.

    In case it comes up, neither of my kids went to Boston Latin, too far and not smart enough. My wife’s engagement ring was $400. But, I did payoff the mortgage and retired last Fall at age 55! (That fulfilled the promise I made to myself sitting at a desk at Pru in Newark in 1981 reviewing check registers with Esther.)

  177. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    $365,000 per year in after tax, spendableincome (woeful calculations, btw)

  178. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Also, in the mid 1980’s I had absolutely zero money budgeted for either children or a lesser earning wife.

  179. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Pumps – If this is the big inflection point, shouldn’t you be satisfying your wife and moving to her dream house on Sopranos Ave. (Urban Club)?

  180. Juice Box says:

    re: “SFO market goes super hot and then it starts”

    1) Points – for History Rhymes

    2) No Points – correlation is not causation fallacy

    3) Drumpf

    4) Points -Flavor Flav

    5) Points – Congress juicing the “herd”, pay attention to the quotes and pay attention to the beltway folks!

    6) NJ real estate – no points – We stay and die or leave and die somewhere with a view

  181. The Great Pumpkin says:

    One of the most powerful dynamics in price appreciation…short supply.

  182. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Every month new millennials step into the buyers market. This increases the buyer pool leading to more intense competition as every month goes by. Demographics matter.

  183. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Millennial buying bloc is getting stronger, not weaker. The ones that have not found a home yet, bank money, leading to more ammo to fuel price growth. It’s coming, baby!

  184. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Pumps lives in a buyer’s market…because there are no buyers.

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