Showdown time

From the Star Ledger:

Gov. Phil Murphy’s rosy scenario for economic growth is full of thorns

Uh-oh. The governor’s got a new cliche.

It’s “rosy scenario,” and Phil Murphy repeated it several times last week as he fought with his fellow Democrats over the state budget that has to be enacted a week from now.

Murphy meant the term to apply to the scenario offered up by state Senate President Steve Sweeney and Assembly Speaker Craig Coughlin in their budget for Fiscal 2019. That passed both houses Thursday.

But I couldn’t help applying that to Murphy’s own plans for our fiscal future.

I am blessed – or perhaps I should say cursed – with a cash register in my head that rings up the cost of promises as a politician utters them.

In the case of Murphy, the sum is staggering for the programs he has promised to implement by the end of his first term. Universal pre-K education: More than $1 billion a year. Tuition-free community college: More than $600 million. Fully funding our K-12 state aid formula: Another billion.

And that’s on top of a pension contribution that grows by $700 million a year but is still drastically underfunded even at that rate. Retiree health benefits are also soaring.

Murphy proposes $1.7 billion in new taxes in his version of the budget for Fiscal 2019, which begins July 1. But that’s barely enough to pay current bills, never mind the tab for new programs.

At the governor’s press conference on Thursday, I asked him about that.

“We’re talking about $4 billion in new spending in the next four years,” I said. “Where are we gonna find the revenue for that in a non-rosy scenario?”

“We have a lot of opportunity to grow this economy,” he answered.

I persisted. “Can we get $4 billion in new revenue in four years?”

“With very reasonable growth assumptions, next year looks pretty darn good,” he said.

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89 Responses to Showdown time

  1. Ex-Essex says:

    Phirst

  2. grim says:

    We’ve been saying this for years and years… From MarketWatch:

    Why high real-estate prices could unify Americans

    It’s hard to argue there are deep divisions between the so-called red and blue states in the U.S., but one thing seems to be bringing the country together: sky-high real-estate prices.

    Americans are fleeing expensive coastal cities, which tend to vote for Democrats, and migrating to cheaper, smaller places in the middle of the country, which tend to support Republicans.

    While voters often tell pollsters they want to move to places with like-minded neighbors—a phenomenon called the Big Sort by writer Bill Bishop — home economics is starting to trump politics. A survey by national real-estate brokerage firm Redfin.com found that 18% of millennials who bought a home last year said they moved to a community where they were in the political minority.

    Only a few months earlier, 46% of millennials told Redfin that they would be hesitant to move to an area where “most of the residents did not share their political views.”

    “The way you depolarize the country isn’t with political rhetoric. It’s with a moving van,” said Kelman, who lives in Seattle. “I know people who’ve never met someone who voted for Trump. (They are) imaginary creatures. Anyone we imagine, we can imagine a monster. But when you meet a conservative, or you meet a liberal, you immediately moderate your views.”

    Most of the time — by a ratio of nearly 8 to 1 — a blue-stater moved into a red state rather than the other way around during the past 12 months, Redfin said. The trend seems to have some staying power, too. Redfin’s analysis of county-to-county migration data published by the U.S. Census says that from 2011 to 2015, over 50% more migrants moved from blue to red counties rather than the other way around.

    The calculus for making such a move, despite the trepidation, is pretty self-evident. Nationwide, the average home in a blue county costs around $384,000— 65% more than that of homes in red counties, which averages $233,000, Redfin says.

    There’s plenty of evidence that the moves are blue to red. Another Redfin study of places with high net inflows – like Nashville, Phoenix, Austin, and Dallas – shows these cities are gaining at the expense of places like New York, Seattle, and San Francisco. For example: 34% of Redfin searches for Phoenix homes come from outside the metro area, with the most from Los Angeles; and 32% of Nashville searchers are out-of-towners, with most from New York.

    The political question, the one all the party bigwigs will be working on during the next election, is this: Will moving change the neighborhood, or will the neighborhood change the voters? Will an influx of Democrat voters from Seattle turn Arizona blue, or at least purple? Or will the new kids in town slowly assimilate and change their views, becoming more conservative?

    Either way, the un-sorting of American political views could be the silver lining in the high housing costs story, Redfin executives think. It’s easy to hate people, or at least ignore their views, when they live hundreds of miles away and live very different lifestyles. It’s much harder to do so when they live next door.

  3. Yo! says:

    Blue Ribbon Teacher,

    I agree with most of your points. Hoboken’s school budget is funded mostly by Hoboken taxpayers and has been for years. And Jersey City is set to lose $175m of state funding for its schools.

  4. Yo! says:

    Grim 6:53,

    I agree people are fleeing New York. I’m looking forward to The NY Times article next year that expresses shock New York City’s population is shrinking again. However, people are poring into San Francisco Bay Area and Seattle attracted by the growing number of high paying jobs there.

  5. grim says:

    I’m looking forward to The NY Times article next year that expresses shock New York City’s population is shrinking again

    With the Bronx and Queens now seeing gentrification, I have no doubt that lower income households with 4-5 members who can no longer afford it will be replaced by DINKs paying top dollar. But, a good amount of this will be counterbalanced by construction of new housing units, smaller housing units, attracting a greater number of smaller families.

    NYC population is up 5% from 2010, and all accounts have it up another 5% by 2020.

  6. Yo! says:

    Grim, Brooklyn lost population last year, according to Census data. Other 4 boroughs has slight gains. I think they all could be losing population a few years.

  7. grim says:

    Noise, you can’t compare. ACS is every 5 years (even though it’s run annually), Census every 10. Annual population estimates are notoriously inaccurate.

  8. 30 year realtor says:

    SF Bay area makes North Jersey look like a bargain. Real Estate prices for rental or purchase are crazy! There may be huge opportunity in that area but the cost of living is very high!

  9. grim says:

    Two things are true for gentrification:

    Household income is higher.
    Household size is smaller.

    The rate of new unit development needs to outpace the decline in household size for population to grow.

  10. Very Stable Genius says:

    @RedHenDC
    It’s not a franchise. That’s what unaffiliated means.

    @RedHenDC
    You have the wrong restaurant.
    Separate companies separate businesses separate owners no affiliation. That one is in Virginia. Businesses in DC are prohibited from discriminating against people for political affiliation because we are a federal district.

    @realDonaldTrump
    The Red Hen Restaurant should focus more on cleaning its filthy canopies, doors and windows (badly needs a paint job) rather than refusing to serve a fine person like Sarah Huckabee Sanders. I always had a rule, if a restaurant is dirty on the outside, it is dirty on the inside!

  11. Very Stable Genius says:

    i can see it town over with split between boomers/townies/rightwingers on one side and young/bluewave/wealthy group on the other. past few yrs splits on 1/3, flat lots have been going from 400k to 600k to be teardown and 6 months later is a new chc for 1.3m. good luck finding a house this summer

    anonymous fighting on towns facebook with boomers desperately and bitterly complaining about changes. unwilling to pay taxes but most of them sucking govt tit, put kids thru excellent public school system and now receiving Medicare. all day watching Fox News realizing they can’t compete in the new world and finding out that riding their future only on Privilege might not work after all as the new arrivals from Brooklyn are kicking them out of town and are voting on strong schools and higher taxes

    needless to say that town is thriving as Brooklyn blue wave arrives and rightwint townies diedoff

    grim says:
    June 25, 2018 at 6:53 am
    We’ve been saying this for years and years… From MarketWatch:

    Why high real-estate prices could unify Americans

    It’s hard to argue there are deep divisions between the so-called red and blue states in the U.S., but one thing seems to be bringing the country together: sky-high real-estate prices.

  12. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    When my sister moved to Portland Oregon, she went from libertarian to psycho west coast liberal. This transformation took less than a year.

  13. Fast Eddie says:

    Unstable p.ussy,

    What language do you speak? Was that middle English?

  14. 3b says:

    As a former proud Bronx boy I don’t see the gentrification yet in the Bronx. The last areas from 30 years ago have still managed to hang on and appear to be thriving. Areas such as Woodlawn,Riverdale, City Island, and Pelham Bay. The rest I am not seeing it. The Bronx does have the best subway commutes to Manhattan so at some point it may change.

  15. Fast Eddie says:

    Is America headed toward a civil war? Sanders, Nielsen incidents show it has already begun

    Don’t forget Maxine Waters demanding that all real Americans be denied and vilified. Doesn’t she realize we support her base? Anyway, it would last about 72 hours. Straight men with balls would annihilate soy boys in man buns with make-up streaks on their cheeks. Oblama pined for this and he’s going to get it.

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2018/06/25/sanders-nielsen-incidents-suggest-new-us-civil-war-underway-column/729141002/

  16. 3b says:

    I know friends and family members who don’t talk to each other because they voted for Trump but it’s not the other way around. Those who did not vote for Obama did not stop talking to those who did.

  17. 3b says:

    Fast no country or empire necessarily lasts forever. Maybe it’s time for a peaceful rearranging of this country into smaller units or perhaps a confederation like Canada.

  18. Fast Eddie says:

    3b,

    It’s coming.

  19. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    Prior to Trump I’ve always argued that immigrationneeds to be reformed and limited on the basis that American labor gains bargaining power by supply restriction.

    I’ve argued for tariffs to restrict the flow of wealth out of this country which has led to foreign oligarchs buying up US assets and influencing our policy. It also strengthens US labors bargaining power.

    The same people that agreed that these ideas made sense 4 years ago now consider the racist and nationalist policies. It’s just good economics.

  20. 3b says:

    Fast I agree. No one ever thought the Roman empire would decline and collapse and yet it did.

  21. LurksMcGee says:

    Grim @ 6:53:

    I also agree with your point. Although I’d wonder if the process will look like the early days of de-segregation of schools. EVENTUALLY people would reduce their fringe or far left/right beliefs and meet somewhere in the middle. But until then, there will probably be a lot of venting and ranting on social media.

    Then again, I rarely take someone’s complaints on social media as serious. Its more like a vent session.

  22. LurksMcGee says:

    3b,

    And the most interesting thing about that collapse is that it was an implosion. Not like someone came from outside and tried to conquer it. When the family feuds, everyone loses.

  23. 3b says:

    Lurks it was not just an implosion and people did come from the outside and conquer it and they were the Visigoths. Plus out of control spending and trying to hold on to vast areas far from Rome. It all came together but the process took time before the final explosion. It sounds very much like the USA today. And yet so many say history is not important. Oh but it is!

  24. Very Stable Genius says:

    @ABC

    Harley-Davidson,
    facing rising costs from new tariffs,
    to begin shifting production of motorcycles heading for Europe from U.S. to factories overseas.

  25. Very Stable Genius says:

    @keithboykin

    “Thank you, Harley-Davidson, for building things in America. And I think you’re going to even expand…There’s a lot of spirit right now in the country that you weren’t having so much in the last number of months that you have right now.”

    – Donald Trump, Feb. 2, 2017

  26. 3b says:

    Juice did not know that. The other area that should come back is Parkchester the old Met Life complex and sister complex of Stuyvesant town except much nicer. Beautiful apartments beautiful grounds walkable and a 6 train subway stop.

  27. Juice Box says:

    3b – The infrastructure has is being updated from south of Yankee Stadium to 138th street by the Grand Concourse it was rezoned back in 2009 as mixed-use allowing high rises to be built.

    They are calling it “Lower Grand Concourse Waterfront” and making the streets pedestrian-friendly adding a waterfront park on the Harlem River, and even replacing the water and sewer lines.

    Lots of taxpayer money..all started under Bloomberg.

  28. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    I thought Rosy Scenario is what call dead Jane Does in Mexico.

  29. Juice Box says:

    Whoops..unintended consequences.

    Harley Davidson to move some production out of US because of EU tariffs.

    “The company sold about 40,000 new motorbikes last year in Europe, equivalent to a sixth of its worldwide sales, making the region its most important market after its home country.”

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/25/business/harley-davidson-us-eu-tariffs.html

  30. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    The next logical plank in the Democrat platform is to do away with the secret ballot, so anyone who votes the wrong way can be targeted for harassment, violence, and death.

  31. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    I guess the past 25 years was so much better when we shut down our entire manufacturing base with zero tariffs while welet the world play tradegames on us.

  32. grim says:

    Liberals seem to miss the point that the honeymoon after World War 2 was not a result of open trade, or strong minimum wages, it was because Europe was destroyed.

    For that same honeymoon period to exist today, China’s manufacturing capacity would need to be destroyed.

    Which undoubtedly would require global nuclear war, that we might not win.

    I suppose we might be hopeful for a deadly pan-asian epidemic.

  33. Juice Box says:

    re: “while we let the world play trade games on us”

    Blue Ribbon it is a money game not a trade game and we have been winning for a long long time.

    World trade today is a game in which the USA produces dollars and the rest of the world produces good and services that dollars can buy…..All and I mean ALL countries including Russia need to accumulate dollars and keep them in their central bank to keep their currency undervalued against the dollar and retain any kind foreign trade of goods in the international markets.

    Best example today is what is going on in Venezuela. No Dollars? Then NO GOODS!

  34. Juice Box says:

    World peace for the last 74 years has relied upon the USA exporting our prosperity and maintaining it with our armed forces.

  35. chicagofinance says:

    Pure ignorance……..

    However, that idea is cold comfort to people like White, who resides in public housing with her mother, and said she’s likely to see higher rent in the near future. Calling home prices in her area “insane,” White pronounced herself unimpressed with the changes sweeping through the Bronx.

    Juice Box says:
    June 25, 2018 at 10:20 am
    BRONX is trying to gentrify.. SoBro neighborhood first…

    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/11/bronx-becomes-latest-target-of-nycs-relentless-gentrification.html

  36. chicagofinance says:

    Genius….. can you generalize any more? See CNBC article above for the flipside of your prejudice…… same dynamic….. the only problem is closed minded people like you

    Very Stable Genius says:
    June 25, 2018 at 8:37 am
    anonymous fighting on towns facebook with boomers desperately and bitterly complaining about changes. unwilling to pay taxes but most of them sucking govt tit, put kids thru excellent public school system and now receiving Medicare. all day watching Fox News realizing they can’t compete in the new world and finding out that riding their future only on Privilege might not work after all as the new arrivals from Brooklyn are kicking them out of town and are voting on strong schools and higher taxes

    needless to say that town is thriving as Brooklyn blue wave arrives and rightwint townies diedoff

  37. 3b says:

    Juice was not aware of any of that. There are some absolutely beautiful apartments on the Grand Concourse. Nice to see the Bronx hopefully turning a corner.

  38. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    Producing dollars comes at a cost. Now they are buying all of our assets with those dollars and driving up the cost of living. Keeping the status quo is not sustainable. Printing dollars has consequences, and they aren’t good, despite the fact that you think we are ripping them off.

  39. Ex-Essex says:

    11:40 i’ll Wager “libruls” at least studied history in skool.

  40. Juice Box says:

    Blue the only real argument is the date on which the hegemony that has existed for 75 years will end.

  41. JCer says:

    essex, Grim is right what existed from 1945-1980 was unprecedented and will not exist again short of large scale war. From 1920-1945 Europe and Asia almost in their entirety were destroyed. This created massive demand for goods and services and only the Americas was really left standing. Unions could demand good wages because their was an insatiable demand for goods and the labor to produce them. Liberals didn’t study history and are largely as ignorant as conservative. The political discourse in the US is starting to look like Spain in the 20’s and 30’s. The left seemingly has a desire to subvert rule of law because it offends their sensibilities and the right is more than happy to respond in kind. Hopefully it doesn’t get out of control, respect for the law is what separates civil society from dictatorships.

  42. yome says:

    Trade deficit is equal to buying of US Treasuries—>US Treasuries is equal to US debt

    Not because foreigners are putting the bill to pay for our needs this is a good economic policy’ It was better when the US income rotated within the US. A 1:1 ration of Trade would have fixed this. A dollar loss is a dollar gain.Not the way trade deficit is going

    “World trade today is a game in which the USA produces dollars and the rest of the world produces good and services that dollars can buy…..All and I mean ALL countries including Russia need to accumulate dollars and keep them in their central bank to keep their currency undervalued against the dollar and retain any kind foreign trade of goods in the international markets.

    Best example today is what is going on in Venezuela. No Dollars? Then NO GOODS!”

  43. Phoenix says:

    And all along I believed it was because there was a generation that was greater than all of the other ones, hence, even with such hubris as to calling itself the “greatest generation”, then with the locust generation sucking it dry to the next level…

    “Grim is right what existed from 1945-1980 was unprecedented and will not exist again short of large scale war. “

  44. The Great Pumpkin says:

    What I ponder with this analysis, where did all the capital come from to buy(create this demand) if their countries manufacturing base was decimated. Where was the money coming from? This means they had no jobs and all capital was being directed at rebuild. So where the money come from to create this demand? Countries were also broke from war costs.

    JCer says:
    June 25, 2018 at 12:30 pm
    essex, Grim is right what existed from 1945-1980 was unprecedented and will not exist again short of large scale war. From 1920-1945 Europe and Asia almost in their entirety were destroyed. This created massive demand for goods and services and only the Americas was really left standing. Unions could demand good wages because their was an insatiable demand for goods and the labor to produce them. Liberals didn’t study history and are largely as ignorant as conservative. The political discourse in the US is starting to look like Spain in the 20’s and 30’s. The left seemingly has a desire to subvert rule of law because it offends their sensibilities and the right is more than happy to respond in kind. Hopefully it doesn’t get out of control, respect for the law is what separates civil society from dictatorships.

  45. Phoenix says:

    “respect for the law is what separates civil society from dictatorships.”

    I do hope those on the forum have turned in their magazines – with the stroke of a pen, Sir Murphy has turned you into a group of felons overnight..

  46. Phoenix says:

    The real wealthy don’t have any “patriotism” as they can move and do move freely around the globe to where they can attract capital and where they are safe.

    They have estates, planes, finances all over the world. If America should fail they just go somewhere else.

    Don’t think the middle class will be able to keep up..

  47. Fast Eddie says:

    …then with the locust generation sucking it dry to the next level…

    What does that even mean? What did the boomers do that is so scorned by this generation? I know… this generation would have done it differently. Right?

  48. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    smh – Pumps – if you stayed in school you’d learn that it is fact, not analysis. Those demolished countries had tons, and tons of jobs – rebuilding their factories and infrastructure. Also, if you stayed in school, you’d understand fractional reserve lending. Money is literally lent into existence.

    What I ponder with this analysis, where did all the capital come from to buy(create this demand) if their countries manufacturing base was decimated. Where was the money coming from? This means they had no jobs and all capital was being directed at rebuild. So where the money come from to create this demand? Countries were also broke from war costs.

  49. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    This is just tripe that the children of boomers made up when Mommy and Daddy stopped financing their jobless childhoods and early adulthoods.

    …then with the locust generation sucking it dry to the next level…

    What does that even mean? What did the boomers do that is so scorned by this generation? I know… this generation would have done it differently. Right?

  50. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Boomer: “I’m having trouble finding a good job.”

    Millennial “Nobody will give me a good job.”

  51. 1987 condo says:

    The Marshall plan…

  52. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Again, where did the money come from to rebuild and give people jobs when their countries were dead broke?

    This is my point. American factories were making products for customers that did not have the means to pay for it. Where the hell did this capital come from and why can’t it be applied today?

    Our infrastructure is in shambles, yet they claim we are too broke to fix it. The world wasn’t broke after wwII?

    An entire leg of the economy was smashed out of existence and needed to be rebuilt from scratch (meaning they lost it all). So why can’t we fix the problems of today. Imagine just blowing up factories around the world today. Think of the position this puts the entire economy in. So how the hell did they get the capital back then to create demand, but can’t do it today? How?

    The Original NJ ExPat says:
    June 25, 2018 at 1:44 pm
    smh – Pumps – if you stayed in school you’d learn that it is fact, not analysis. Those demolished countries had tons, and tons of jobs – rebuilding their factories and infrastructure. Also, if you stayed in school, you’d understand fractional reserve lending. Money is literally lent into existence.

  53. The Great Pumpkin says:

    You say this time period allowed for high wages and large percentage of union workers because we were the only factories in the world operating. If this is the case, how did broke countries across the globe buy products produced from salaries that were the highest in the world? Yet today, we are told that we can’t have high salaries because the product is said to be too expensive, yet after wwII, you had high labor costs producing products for the rest of the world that was dead broke. Simply amazing.

    This makes absolute no sense to me.

  54. yome says:

    The World Bank was responsible in giving loans for Infrastructure Development in Asia too

  55. Juice Box says:

    Pumps – since you skipped that class to hit a bong…

    re:”Where did the money come from to rebuild and give people jobs when their countries were dead broke?”

    Just after WWII and just after the Marshall plan during the Cold War years Japan was a “friend” of the U.S. and Japanese markets were allowed to be closed while the American market was open to Japanese goods. Also Japan has lived under the umbrella of U.S. military protection they did not need to spend on Defense.

  56. yome says:

    The US traded with equal economies.
    The 3rd World countries dream was to immigrate to the US and receive high salaries,afford to buy homes and send their children to college, just by being a factory worker. The ones left in their respective Countries are just left with a dream. Owning a Levis,Hush Puppies was a dream for most kids growing in a 3rd world.

  57. The Great Pumpkin says:

    So money was created out of nothing and then used to create demand in the world economy for American products. Got it!

    Why would I ever be scared of debt in this economy? It’s all games.

  58. 3b says:

    Like I said earlier history is important. It’s not valued in the U.S.

  59. The Great Pumpkin says:

    3b,

    I understand history well. Problem is, people don’t understand economics at all….and it’s meant to be this way.

  60. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Idiot – I already told you. You quoted my very simple reply, but either didn’t read it, or can’t comprehend it…probably both are true.

    As 1987 also told you, but again, no schooling, no comprehension:

    The Marshall Plan (officially the European Recovery Program, ERP) was an American initiative to aid Western Europe, in which the United States gave over $13 billion (nearly $110 billion in 2016 US dollars) in economic assistance to help rebuild Western European economies after the end of World War II.

    Again, where did the money come from to rebuild and give people jobs when their countries were dead broke?

  61. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    I don’t know what amazes me the most about you Pumps:

    How little you know…or…How you show up every day to prove how little you know.

  62. chicagofinance says:

    Probably the biggest thing about boomers (I am Gen X) is their fundamental lack of understanding how worse off everyone is than they are. When they bellyache about anything, it rings so hollow, because they have no appreciation of how good they have it. This same group has done a fantastical job of raising a bunch of foolish kids who expect to live in the prosperity of their parents (the opportunity doesn’t exist) and have no work ethic.

    A perfect example is that a person in their late 50’s or older, who bought real estate no later than 2002 or so (and many between 1985-1998), is sitting on a good chunk of home equity unless they stupidly cashed it out. Overall, everyone younger (some exceptions) has not done as well. A good number of these people complain that their pensions were frozen too……. (?) (!) as young people have anything of the sort.

    They all are annoyed that they have to work past 55 years old. They all want to retire immediately, or complain that they don’t have the money to do so….. yet everything is stacked in their favor.

    Fast Eddie says:
    June 25, 2018 at 1:31 pm
    …then with the locust generation sucking it dry to the next level…

    What does that even mean? What did the boomers do that is so scorned by this generation? I know… this generation would have done it differently. Right?

  63. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    My wife was a tutor to Manute Bol when he came to the US to play Basketball at Bridgeport. Just like Pumps doesn’t understand how money is created by lending and destroyed by debt repayment, Manute didn’t understand even first grade subtraction. My wife tried to show him how subtraction worked in terms she thought he would understand. She created a scenario where Manute’s village had 100 head of cattle but a lion got into the herd night and killed one of the herd and dragged it away so now they have 99. Manute’s answer was, “No, we still have 100. We kill the lion.”

    Too bad Pumps isn’t 7’8″ tall; He might be able to accomplish something then.

    So money was created out of nothing and then used to create demand in the world economy for American products. Got it!

    Why would I ever be scared of debt in this economy? It’s all games.

  64. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Expat,

    Nice try buddy, but I’m not the idiot here. I’m simply pointing out what no one questions when they claim unions and high paying jobs only existed because the us had no competition. I call bs, and stand by it. With no competition, meaning no jobs for the customers buying your stuff. On top of that, usa was producing goods in the world based on the highest salaries in the world, so how the f’k did the rest of the world buy i based on the same logic to put down salaries and unions today?

  65. chicagofinance says:

    as IF young people

  66. chicagofinance says:

    Note: end of calendar quarter; next week is a holiday week

    The market is barfing it up today. Either this drop is the plunge, or Wednesday is set up to completely wash out…….. UNKNOWN…. your call is as good as mine…… I get the feeling that Wednesday is going to suck (but it might just be today)….. I think we will be higher though by late July…..

  67. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    2:59 chi – It’s a great thing you weren’t born 5 years earlier, otherwise you would have all of those awful boomer traits that “they all” have.

  68. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Yep, Pumps kill the lion too.

    Expat,

    Nice try buddy, but I’m not the idiot here. I’m simply pointing out what no one questions when they claim unions and high paying jobs only existed because the us had no competition. I call bs, and stand by it. With no competition, meaning no jobs for the customers buying your stuff. On top of that, usa was producing goods in the world based on the highest salaries in the world, so how the f’k did the rest of the world buy i based on the same logic to put down salaries and unions today?

  69. Fast Eddie says:

    Does this make me a deplorable locust?

  70. 3b says:

    Fast I am a tail end baby boomer and I have problems with many in that generation as well. Many are self absorbed selfish and In therapy. They are the ones who started the cutting of employees benefits etc as well as the unpaid internship/slavery nonsense. Of course they when they were young had their paid internships. Throw in their draft dodging and their vilification of the people who did serve in Vietnam plus their druggie free love which morphed into yuppies and all in all they are not an impressive generation. Just my opinion and I am as I said a tail end boomer.

  71. 3b says:

    Chgo I could not agree with you more on the boomers. Oh and many have cashed out that equity in my opinion.

  72. grim says:

    Harley Davidson’s statement is going to put a big damper on Trump’s tariff ambitions.

    The tariffs gave US manufacturers a good way to give Trump a big middle finger on moving jobs out of the US.

  73. grim says:

    I mean, that said, Harley is a dying company and won’t last another 10-20 years.

  74. yome says:

    The US has 25% of the World Economy. Does US Companies leaving the US expect their goods to be sold back in the US without tariff?

    Car companies are willing to start assembling products in the US to avoid tariff. Canada and Mexico will get hurt. Volvo just announced a Assembly Plant in the US

  75. Juice Box says:

    Harley has always been niche.

    132 million motorcycles to be sold in 2018, valued at $120 billion. Harley has always been less than 1% units shipped and has always been a premium brand.

    A big Milwaukee-Eight is still a rarity outside the USA.

  76. Phoenix says:

    It was all our hard work. It had nothing to do with timing, world economy, wars, etc.

    It wasn’t the lack of worldwide competition.
    It wasn’t the fact that no one tracked you every minute of the day.
    Oil was only 50 ft underground (guess) now you dig 2000 ft for the same crap.
    You could save money by polluting as much as you like (Ford, DuPont in NJ) just dump the poison on the ground and profit. Burn what you want.
    Your needs were cheap- your want’s were expensive.
    Today’s needs are expensive and our wants are cheap-50″ television is not a luxury at 300.00.
    Real estate- went up 10x for the older generations ( the land- the house still smells of Rhiengold, cabbage and Chesterfields I’ve heard from others on the forum) the younger group will NEVER see that type of appreciation on land- plus they have the debt left to them from the public union employees to pay back, along with supporting Social Security and Medicare that will both be bankrupt in 10 years.

    “Probably the biggest thing about boomers (I am Gen X) is their fundamental lack of understanding how worse off everyone is than they are. When they bellyache about anything, it rings so hollow, because they have no appreciation of how good they have it.”

  77. joyce says:

    Right! How dare he generalize at all… something you never do.

    The Original NJ ExPat says:
    June 25, 2018 at 3:08 pm
    2:59 chi – It’s a great thing you weren’t born 5 years earlier, otherwise you would have all of those awful boomer traits that “they all” have.

  78. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    I think the true number is higher.

    CBS Poll: 51% of Americans Believe a Border Wall is a Good Idea

    https://townhall.com/tipsheet/timothymeads/2018/06/24/cbs-poll-51-of-americans-believe-a-border-wall-is-a-good-idea-n2494000

  79. The Great Pumpkin Hypocrite says:

    When I get a question answered and don’t like the answer because I can’t handle the truth, I keep asking the same dumb question over and over again as a self defense mechanism.

  80. The Great Pumpkin says:
  81. The Great Pumpkin says:

    No, my question was not dumb, and it clearly was never answered. I’ll let you think you are the superior intellect if it makes you feel good.

    The Great Pumpkin Hypocrite says:
    June 25, 2018 at 5:38 pm
    When I get a question answered and don’t like the answer because I can’t handle the truth, I keep asking the same dumb question over and over again as a self defense mechanism.

  82. Ex-Essex says:

    I’ll bet Harley buys Ducati. And promptly kills them both…

  83. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bsByJy9wB-I

    Right! How dare he generalize at all… something you never do.

  84. phoenix says:

    Unless you tell them it’s being built with union labor and that you will have to raise taxes to pay for it…

    The Original NJ ExPat says:
    June 25, 2018 at 4:58 pm
    I think the true number is higher.

    CBS Poll: 51% of Americans Believe a Border Wall is a Good Idea

  85. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    The labor won’t be a problem, we have lots of people without jobs showing up at exactly the spots where it needs to be built.

    Unless you tell them it’s being built with union labor and that you will have to raise taxes to pay for it…

    The Original NJ ExPat says:
    June 25, 2018 at 4:58 pm
    I think the true number is higher.

    CBS Poll: 51% of Americans Believe a Border Wall is a Good Idea

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