Sometimes it pays to play the long game

From Bloomberg:

U.S. Homeowners Are Lingering Longer, and the Wait Is Paying Off

Homeowners in the U.S. are holding on to their houses longer than they have in at least 18 years, and when they do sell, they’re reaping gains that haven’t been seen since before the housing crisis.

Those who sold in the second quarter did so after owning their homes for an average of 8.09 years, the longest stretch since Attom Data Solutions started tracking the statistic in 2000. The wait appears to be paying off: Second-quarter sellers recorded gains averaging $58,000 — the most since the third quarter of 2007.

Seller gains reached their peak in the fourth quarter of 2005, when they averaged $89,780. They bottomed out less than four years later, in the first quarter of 2009, when the average seller lost $58,735.

This entry was posted in Demographics, Economics, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

73 Responses to Sometimes it pays to play the long game

  1. ExEssex says:

    My Gawd LA is reeeeally something. Anything in the City sells.

  2. grim says:

    From Crains:

    Even the cheapest homes are waiting for buyers

    It’s not just luxury-home listings that are piling up in New York City. Even units for less than $1 million — within reach of far more people than a Billionaires’ Row penthouse — are hurting for buyers.

    In Manhattan, the inventory of sub-$1 million apartments surged 27 percent in June from a year earlier to 3,087, the most for the month since 2013, according to StreetEasy. Such listings jumped 17 percent to 2,738 in Brooklyn, and climbed 6 percent to 2,314 in Queens, a borough usually sought out for its relative affordability.

    Buyers at all price points are taking their time to shop around for the best deal — if they make a purchase at all. When combined with listings over $1 million, Brooklyn and Queens both had the largest number of available homes for June since 2008, according to StreetEasy. Total inventory in Manhattan hasn’t been this high for month since 2011.

    “There are a lot of options out there, so be picky,” said Grant Long, senior economist for the listings website. “The power is in your hands to negotiate.”

    Another surge of listings is expected in September, a time when many homeowners try to recapture buyer attention after a summer break, according to Long.

    If purchases don’t clear some of the supply before then, “what’s added in the fall will push us undoubtedly to the highest inventory levels that the city has ever seen,” he said. “Unless sales pick up, we are going to see lower prices.”

  3. grim says:

    Didn’t see that Crains article posted yesterday, good enough to post twice.

  4. grim says:

    Speaking of crazy NYC bathrooms – was it Tunnel that had the glass showers in the co-ed bathroom? Can’t remember anymore, either that or it was Twilo or Sound Factory. Had to be one of those three.

  5. grim says:

    A little bit of me dies when I walk by “CBGB” in EWR Terminal 3.

  6. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Wow, just wow. People are f’n nuts.

    So let me get this straight. People cry about lack of supply when prices are going up. When builders build the supply to feed their needs, they don’t want it. Why? Because the prices are not going up. Are you buying a house to live in or speculate? Wtf? Like a child that only wants to play with a toy when another child wants it too. Human nature is a joke.

    newbie says:
    July 20, 2018 at 7:52 pm
    NYC: Even the cheapest homes are waiting for buyers

    http://www.crainsnewyork.com/article/20180720/REAL_ESTATE/180729989

  7. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Isn’t this healthy for nyc market? Building supply to control pricing? Wtf? Isn’t this healthy and what we want?

    Why do we want to push these prices into a bubble, why? Why isn’t this breather over the last 2-3 years good for the overall health of the nyc housing market and longterm economy?

  8. The Great Pumpkin says:

    My god, read the comments on that article. Want to see “stupid?” Bunch of hardcore conservatives blaming everything on liberals and their high taxes. These people are a special breed of stupid.

    Yes, liberals are responsible for high cost of living and high taxes. Keep telling yourself that. Ignorance is bliss.

  9. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Capitalism itself is responsible for high taxes and high cost of living. For some reason, whenever an area (market) gets concentrated with people with lots of capital, the taxes and cost of living go up. It never fails, but let’s blame liberals.

  10. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Is it not obvious that a hardcore red state like Texas is becoming a high cost high tax state the wealthier it becomes? It will soon be a blue state. Inevitable.

  11. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Lesson here. Want to keep your state low cost, low tax, and red? Don’t get wealthy. Do not attract wealthy people.

  12. Bystander says:

    A day of illumination for you Blumpkin. Yes, non-wealthy people only like to invest in expensive housing when that housing keeps getting more expensive. This is the core change from bubble days and govt. just reinflated it. Expect same behavior going forward. You don’t think there are hundreds of thousands of speculative plays in NYC and Hudson County. You really believe so many people can afford $1m 1bd with 3,000 mo. maintenance. Keep dreaming.

  13. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Honestly, I do believe many people can afford 1 million 1 bd and 3,000 month maintenance because look at the rents. It’s being supported.

    With the nyc metro market, you can’t look at govt based income levels to justify pricing. There is an enormous black market in this area. God knows what people are really making, and you will never know. Just look at how strong the mob is in this area. Enough said.

  14. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Those ports bring in so much illegal money, it’s mind blowing. So much economic activity that the govt can’t account for.

  15. The Original NJ ExPat says:
  16. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Employers should find out their twitter handles and ghost-shame them.

  17. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Of course we knowledge-shame Pumps all the time and it gets us nowhere.

  18. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    How great would it be if Pumps ghosted us? And then sat around lurking, waiting for us talk about what happened to him? And then waited some more. And then waited some more. And then waited some more?

  19. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Bystander,

    They said the same thing about Vancouver, Sf, La, Sd, Toronto, Australia etc.. It will bust because…..

    “You really believe so many people can afford $1m 1bd with 3,000 mo. maintenance. Keep dreaming.”

  20. Fast Eddie says:

    Not only am I receiving calls now from recruiters but the same ones call back AGAIN when they haven’t received an updated resume. The last recruiter found my 10 year old resume and said they have so many openings that it’s not even real! I said if they’re consulting gigs, I’m not interested. He said the deal only with full time roles with bennies. If you can’t find a job in this environment, one should look in the mirror and figure out what needs to be fixed.

  21. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Nyc real estate is king of Western Hemisphere real estate. Always has been, always will be. Nyc real estate is better than gold on the long term. It’s your ultra safe long term storage of your wealth play in real estate. All the major cities in the world are.

  22. 1987 says:

    Congrats Grim on NJ.com and I assume star ledger mention!

  23. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Damn right. Monaco and Malibu can suck it. I’d rather live in Wayne.

    Nyc real estate is king of Western Hemisphere real estate. Always has been, always will be. Nyc real estate is better than gold on the long term. It’s your ultra safe long term storage of your wealth play in real estate. All the major cities in the world are.

  24. 3b says:

    Someone is becoming increasingly unhinged. First thing on a Saturday morning.

  25. Bystander says:

    Blumpkin,

    It is foreign money, particularly Chinese. It has been driving up prices in all the places mentioned above. What I am saying is that most American citizens living in NYC, being paid in dollars, can’t afford $7k a month for 1 BD. It has been a speculative play based on foreign money but it won’t continue. I had good friend who bought a studio on 86th St at height of market in 2007. He paid $500K and put 5% down. By 2009, he was underwater and could not refi. By 2014, a group of Polish people (not sure what investors they reprensented) came in and bought him out for $575,000 to knock it down and make 1 BD. You have had nine years of disortion but it will roll out at some point.

  26. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    At my last school, they got ghosted. They created this stupid STEM academy which was just window dressing for kids to bump up their resume. No real education planned. They hired some yahoo to do the “coding class”. Meanwhile, we already had AP Comp Sci. He never showed up. They had to ask the AP Environmental teacher to fill in for 6 months but he didn’t know anything about coding.

  27. Bystander says:

    Sure, Eddie. Anyone can get a job. Not really the point. Will it pay the same is the question. Also, you are a programmer, right?

  28. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Circa 1995 I had a computer, I had a fax modem. What I didn’t have was a printer. Instead of mailing cover letters and résumés out, I used to set up my fax modem to dial out to recruiters and fax my stuff at 11:01PM, when the phone rates went down. I would do that just once and I got calls for the next year or so. It was funny to be in interviews and I would see the hiring manager with my résumé in hand across the desk. It was funny because it would be the first time I saw it on paper. WYSIWYG was thumbs up in my book!

  29. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    LOL. I never bought a printer until probably late 1997 and it was only because of Mapquest that I did. Living on Long Island I was going lots of places I didn’t know and before smart phones and internet on the go I realized I had a problem. I could bring up driving directions on my computer, but I had no way to bring them with me unless I printed them or wrote them out by hand. My first printer was an OkiDat LED printer, which worked pretty good. Laser-like quality and speed, no color though.

  30. Fast Eddie says:

    Not a programmer but in the IT realm with steadily increasing exposure to the business side of what we do which is very niche in nature. But my point is with any professional background, you should have no problem landing something. It’s the benefits that are important I would think more so than trying to match a previous salary. There’s plenty of jobs to be had. Adapt and move into a new direction if required.

  31. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    OkiData

  32. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Bystander – I’ve done this multiple times when I liked a job, but they wouldn’t give me the money. I offered to take their best offer but I wanted a salary review in 6 months. Surprisingly, about 3 out of 4 times they would just pay me the money I wanted at the outset. I guess they didn’t want to get HR in a tizzy by going off the reservation from regular policies.

  33. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Another time, during the dot com boom, I offered to work there for half the offered salary if they tripled my stock options. Instead, I got to keep the higher salary and they doubled my stock options.

  34. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    I guess the bottom line is that it will work out well, perhaps, if you have a better line than, “that is not enough”.

  35. grim says:

    Smart money cashing out? Big hedge fund billionaires not welcome in NJ anymore…

    https://www.nj.com/entertainment/index.ssf/2018/07/new_jersey_most_expensive_homes.html

  36. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    The only creature comforts people seem to want for the foreseeable future is a safe space with great WiFi.

  37. grim says:

    Murphy may turn out to be the worst Governor in the history of NJ.

  38. Bystander says:

    I appreciate the advice. Believe me, I know the game. What Pat is referring to is when you have leverage. You can’t ask for stock options or salary review during a phone screen where salary is third question. When salary is 30-40% below your current level, it seems like a waste of interview time and resource for both us. Perhaps I will just say, sure “$115k is fine”, nail the interview then ask for 40% more. I’ve never had to do that my entire career. Pay is important with two young kids and wife. Let’s just see how this week plays out. The good thing is that my former boss hired me at last IB and knows my salary and family situation. He is the CTO of this place so better position for me.

  39. 1987 says:

    California if the east!

  40. 1987 says:

    “Of”

  41. grim says:

    Congrats Grim on NJ.com and I assume star ledger mention!

    Thanks! Throw me some props with a positive review somewhere.

  42. grim says:

    Perhaps I will just say, sure “$115k is fine”, nail the interview then ask for 40% more.

    What you do in this situation is make it through the final interviews, and when they give you an offer letter, respond back saying “One Fifteen? I thought you said One Fifty, Sorry, no thanks”.

  43. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    lol, the article pumpkin posted is littered with people from Florida and the Carolinas begging the New Yorkers to stop moving there.

  44. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Never lived there.

    “After the home was built in 2017, the property was assessed for nearly $2.5 million, according to Zillow. Property taxes are $44,475.

    It may not be too surprising that the Violas never lived in the home themselves, considering they also own an Upper East Side mansion that was recently relisted for $88 million. (It was once listed for $114 million.)”

    grim says:
    July 21, 2018 at 10:07 am
    Another billionaire leaving:

    https://www.nj.com/entertainmen

  45. The Great Pumpkin says:

    That was my point. These people are stupid, they are confusing politics for economics.

    Blue Ribbon Teacher says:
    July 21, 2018 at 10:31 am
    lol, the article pumpkin posted is littered with people from Florida and the Carolinas begging the New Yorkers to stop moving there.

  46. The Great Pumpkin says:

    The buying power is what is driving up their cost of living and taxes.

  47. yome says:

    I was told by my son, who is in Finance, he gets calls almost everyday for job offers.
    This is only true while he has a job. If he lost his job calls will stop.

    They only hire the best. The best they do not let go

  48. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    At my last school, I wanted to buy an identical printer to the one we had in the office. There was something wrong with it and it kept sending messages to the techs that the toner needed to be replaced. But they were always too lazy to do it themselves. So they just dropped it off. For 2 years straight, they dropped one off every 2 weeks. We had a stack of 60 toner cartridges in one of the cabinets. They are probably still sitting there.

  49. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Why won’t foreign investment last? And why would “most Americans” apply to the nyc market? Avg American does not live here. It’s like reflecting on the idea that coastal Florida real estate prices are not sustainable because “most Floridians” can’t afford to live there.

    “I am saying is that most American citizens living in NYC, being paid in dollars, can’t afford $7k a month for 1 BD. It has been a speculative play based on foreign money but it won’t continue.”

  50. 3b says:

    For so long someone has told us the whole nyc metro area is connected real estate price wise now that Manhattan is stalled price wise we are told there is no connection .

  51. juice box says:

    NJ and you perfect together..
    Some of the Syrian families who fled their war-torn hometowns and lived as refugees in Jordan and Turkey before making their way to the United States are now on the move again. This time, they are leaving Paterson.

    At least seven families, citing the high cost of living, the low quality of housing and concerns about their safety, have left or plan to leave this summer, many of them headed to Michigan.

    They include families who sued a Paterson landlord in April over alleged housing violations and a family of four who started looking for a new place after the father in the household was robbed and badly beaten on a city street in June.

    “Work here is not enough,” said Tahani Al Ktuf, who will leave New Jersey for Michigan this month with her husband and five children. “You cannot live. Here a husband and wife can both work and it’s barely enough to get food and pay rent.”

    https://www.northjersey.com/story/news/2018/07/20/they-fled-war-syria-now-many-refugees-leaving-paterson-nj/771916002/

  52. Leftwing says:

    Grim know both those situations.

    Robbins, ex of the seller in the first article and mentioned there, had an absolute sick indoor rink at his alpine house.

    The viola house the article neglects to
    mention is directly across from the HS and 4-6 grade campuses on through street. Very heavy traffic twice daily. A bit of over reach to use that home as an example of wealthy leaving as noted he never lived there. IIRC it may have been his mother’s house on her move to suburbs after he was already an adult.

    mention

  53. Mike S says:

    ” grim says:
    July 21, 2018 at 8:00 am

    A little bit of me dies when I walk by “CBGB” in EWR Terminal 3.

    A complete joke.

  54. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    My standard line is, “I can’t even give you an absolute salary number. I make my decisions based on the full compensation package and the opportunity for future growth.”

    Now, here’s my best play: Whoever is interviewing me or screening me, I always assume I am already hired and I’m just probing for what my first day will be like. I create an image in the interviewers head that I am already working there and I’m painting them a mental picture of how quickly I’ll relieve their pain. Think about that. If you’ve ever been a hiring manager, you know it is a pain in the ass and a big time suck to interview people. The only reason you do it is because you want pain relief. Here is my big close:


    “If the candidate for this job could take just one specific thing off your plate quickly, and then run with it fast, with almost no supervision, what would that task be?”

    As soon as you ask that question the hiring manager is imagining great relief and comfort. He is picturing you as his the source of that comfort.

    Perhaps I will just say, sure “$115k is fine”, nail the interview then ask for 40% more.

    What you do in this situation is make it through the final interviews, and when they give you an offer letter, respond back saying “One Fifteen? I thought you said One Fifty, Sorry, no thanks”.

  55. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    ^^^BTW, Asking that one question will also give you the most insight into what the job really is.

  56. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    I interviewed a guy fresh off the plane from Moldova a few years ago. He got here via a green card diversity lottery. Arrived here with his wife and a young son. They chose Boston because his wife had relatives to put them up here.

    His English was pretty good, but he didn’t talk much. I’m a very good interviewer and he was the first guy ever to stymie me and have to cut short my allotted time. Every question I asked him, his answer was exactly correct…and lasted about 14 seconds or less. I couldn’t stump him and I couldn’t make him talk beyond succinctly, and accurately, answer my questions. We hired him and he was the real deal, a top rate network engineer. I pulled him into my 4 person lunch group and it probably still took me a year or so to get him to talk up to a minute straight.

    He had a son and when the son turned 5 they had twins, two more boys. He, his wife, and his 3 boys lived in a 1BR apartment. One day, not too long after my FIL died, I was telling him what it was like visiting my MIL, especially when the other cousins were there. All of the kids knew not to run through my FIL’s study and down the back stairs (his den was over the 3 car garage). I went on to tell him that it had kind of become my study when I was there, and the kids still showed the same respect, out of muscle memory mainly. It was my own quiet place. Short as usual, Vadim responded to that story like this:

    “I would love a place like that.”

  57. NJdepartment says:

    Pump, NYC inventory is rising. prices falling.
    I see Rutherford, and Lyndhurst softening.. Clifton I guess to..
    So it will hit Wayne next month..

    Just my feeling.

  58. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Homes that sell, prices are down in comparison to a year ago?

    NJdepartment says:
    July 21, 2018 at 5:18 pm
    Pump, NYC inventory is rising. prices falling.
    I see Rutherford, and Lyndhurst softening.. Clifton I guess to..
    So it will hit Wayne next month..

    Just my feeling.

  59. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Check this comment from that article. Guaranteed it’s some hardcore conservative spewing this crap. Yes, calling out Amazon for sucking the govt t!t is anti-business you f’n tard! So lost.

    “Unbalanced, borderline fraudulent artical. No view toward long term. No view toward jobs created, directly and indirectly. Zero about construction, maintenance, shipping, support, taxes paid by employees. I had a communist economics professor. He could have written this anti-business, anti-American piece.”

  60. The Original NJ ExPat says:
  61. Bystander says:

    Pat 2:55

    That is really great advice. I will use it on Weds.

  62. Yo! says:

    In Corona, Queens right now. All taco stands and restaurants have help wanted signs. “Solicitamos trabajadores” or something like that.

  63. Yo! says:

    12:20 – NJ residents quitting for Detroit region. Yikes. What’s next? NJ best and brightest moving to California? Already happening.

  64. Yo! says:

    At birthday party. Dad bragging about his daughter’s success in battle raps. She is 3 years old and white. Takes hip hop classes.

    Corona real estate doing fine. Every inch of space generates economic activity. Reminds me of Union City. Values going up.

  65. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Best Buy Should Be Dead, But It’s Thriving in the Age of Amazon – Bloomberg Businessweek
    https://apple.news/A60xWOHa2TreEG-QF7JcS5A

  66. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “High taxes are chasing wealthy New Jersey residents away from the Garden State.
    That’s the common refrain repeated throughout the state.
    But there’s also been significant growth in families earning $200,000 or more, Census data shows.
    In fact, since the recession, the number of those households has increased 40 percent.
    In contrast, the number of households earning $100,000 or less decreased 5 percent, while those earning between $100,001 and $200,000 increased 7 percent.
    According to the Census data, there were about 248,000 households in the state earning $200,000 or more in the years before the recession. Now, there are about 344,000, about 11 percent of all households.
    Before the recession, they made up about 8 percent of total households.
    But where are those people living? Are they flocking to certain towns more than others?
    We analyzed two snapshots of Census data (2012-2016 and 2005-2009) for each municipality and found the towns where the number of $200,000-plus households grew the most.”

    https://www.nj.com/data/2018/07/these_28_nj_towns_are_booming_with_families_earning_200k_or_more.html

  67. exEssex says:

    12:17 awww shucks…

    Fair disclosure, I did have a few interviews this week. It took a few months to get my CA certificate to teach here. Buuuut, it looks like I might rejoin the workforce soon. XXXOOO

  68. Chicago says:

    Yo! says:
    July 22, 2018 at 12:53 pm
    At birthday party. Dad bragging about his daughter’s success in battle raps. She is 3 years old and white. Takes hip hop classes.

    Corona real estate doing fine. Every inch of space generates economic activity. Reminds me of Union City. Values going up.

    Corona boyeee
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=JkMHe0udrjQ

  69. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Hillary is wearing something on her left leg under her housecoat. Piss bag? Shit bag? both?

  70. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Maybe she has John Podesta up under there somewhere? Maybe Hum-a-Weiner?

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