Otteau: September Update

From the Otteau Group:

September MarketNews

Home purchase contracts in New Jersey declined in August by 2% compared to the same month last year. Almost half of the markets in NJ have seen a decline in the pace of home sales on a year-to-date basis. As a result, the number of year-to-date purchase contracts (January-August) in New Jersey is up marginally by 0.8%, or roughly 600 contracts. While this is partially attributable to an under-supply of housing inventory, a growing affordability gap due to rising prices and interest rates is a significant factor.

While the number of year-to-date home sales has increased by 0.8% overall, that is not the case for all price ranges. Contract activity for homes priced under $400,000 have declined due to supply shortages, with unsold inventory having dropped by 12% year-to-date. Sales have stagnated in the $1+mil-$2.5mil range. At the opposite end of the spectrum, contract activity for luxury priced homes over $2.5-Million has increased by an impressive 12% (243 in 2017 vs. 272 today).

Shifting to the supply side of the equation, inventory remains restricted, which is limiting choices for home buyers. The number of homes being offered for sale today in New Jersey continues to be at its lowest point since 2005, having declined by 760 (-2%) over the past year. This is also 42% (31,000) less than the amount of homes on the market compared to the cyclical high in 2011. Today’s unsold inventory equates to just 4.1 months of sales (non-seasonally adjusted), which is the same as this time last year.

Currently, all of New Jersey’s 21 counties have less than 8.0 months of supply, which is a balance point for home prices. Middlesex and Essex Counties have the strongest market conditions in the state with just 3.1 months of supply, followed by Union (3.4), Passaic (3.5), Monmouth (3.5) and Camden (3.8), which all have fewer than 4.0 months of supply. The counties with the largest amount of unsold inventory (6.5 months or greater) are concentrated in the southern portion of the state including Cumberland (6.7) and Salem (6.8).

Demand for rental apartments remains strong in NJ with statewide occupancy rates being among the highest in the US, which has allowed for average asking rents to rise for 33 consecutive quarters. The Central NJ region has the lowest vacancy rate in the state at 2.7%, which is slightly higher from the prior quarter’s 2.5%.

In spite of these strong metrics, vacancy rates have been rising recently, except for NYC where vacancy declined from 5.6% to 5.3% in the Q2. The vacancy increases in New Jersey is attributable to the staggering pace of new construction deliveries. In 2008.Q2, there were 6,400 apartment units being constructed, which has increased to over 30,000 units presently, equating to an astounding 368% rise in apartment construction over the past decade. The pace of new construction deliveries in key markets like Hudson County is especially rapid with almost 15,000 apartment units currently in construction compared to just 4,300 in 2008, representing a 248% increase.

This entry was posted in Demographics, Economics, New Jersey Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

120 Responses to Otteau: September Update

  1. Mike says:

    Good Morning New Jersey

  2. dentss says:

    Almost first

  3. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    thrist.

  4. Fast Eddie says:

    The pace of new construction deliveries in key markets like Hudson County is especially rapid with almost 15,000 apartment units currently in construction compared to just 4,300 in 2008, representing a 248% increase.

    No place to park if you have a car and impossible to commute in and out of JC/Hoboken. The only choice is a train.

  5. Mike S says:

    JC commute is so terrible – the last 5 miles is a crawl

  6. Yo! says:

    JC office landlords getting crushed. Mack-Cali occupancy in free fall due to moveouts. New team isn’t fixing problems. CEO trying for highway spir from NJTP to his buildings. Why put office in JC when plenty of Manhattan office space available? What is interesting is Hoboken office market is strong right now.

  7. Fast Eddie says:

    CEO trying for highway spir from NJTP to his buildings.

    Good luck. I’m still trying to find the appeal of stuffing every job into downtown JC and Hoboken. I find it hard to believe that white collar professionals won’t show up to a job in say, Paramus or the outlying ‘burbs. If you want to work, then you’ll work. If rental space is cheap enough in these office parks, won’t it appeal to a business? This mantra regarding urban life is way overplayed and over-hyped.

  8. Libturd...look me up in Costa Rica says:

    In 25 years of working in Manhattan, I have yet to figure out what the advantage is to working in Manhattan. Well, besides the Sesame Tofu at King Wok.

  9. HEHEHE says:

    Hudson County is such a joke. They’ll let developers through up any building they want without throwing in a dime to improve the lousy infrastructure.

    They built that light rail so that it blocks a major thoroughfare coming into Hoboken when they could have built a bridge to run over the intersection.

    NJ Transit wants to build out over the Hoboken train terminal. At some point it’s going to happen.

    You thought the Holland and Lincoln Tunnel traffic is a mess now wait until that debacle gets started.

    It’s just going to add to parking and flooding/infrastructure shit-show in Hoboken.

    Hoboken had 18 water main breaks in the past year. The infrastructure can’t handle the current capacity.

  10. chicagofinance says:

    Hoboken office is different than JC on many levels…… people discuss PATH access, ferry and train, but Hoboken has such a short ingress and egress. JC is a bunch of monoliths and deep catacombs of PATH stations, and the need to use Light Rail from NJT terminal. Nothing in Hoboken is more than a 5 minute walk…. plus there is hardly any offerings in Hoboken.

    Yo! says:
    October 2, 2018 at 11:39 am
    What is interesting is Hoboken office market is strong right now.

  11. chicagofinance says:

    Tons of people use PATH back and forth to Hob/JC waterfront…… in many ways, it is far superior than locations in Manhattan….

    Fast Eddie says:

    October 2, 2018 at 12:13 pm
    CEO trying for highway spir from NJTP to his buildings.

    Good luck. I’m still trying to find the appeal of stuffing every job into downtown JC and Hoboken. I find it hard to believe that white collar professionals won’t show up to a job in say, Paramus or the outlying ‘burbs. If you want to work, then you’ll work. If rental space is cheap enough in these office parks, won’t it appeal to a business? This mantra regarding urban life is way overplayed and over-hyped.

  12. Fast Eddie says:

    Manhattan is Manhattan, absolutely the greatest city in the world. I get it. JC/Hoboken is a smash ‘N grab con job. People who purchase here are being fleeced. Same goes for the rent s.uckers. Rent something along the Main or Bergen lines and invest your money.

  13. chicagofinance says:

    I agree, but that doesn’t signify that it is wrong…… I sincerely miss walking more than I do…. I wish I had more incidental walking in my day….

    Fast Eddie says:
    October 2, 2018 at 12:13 pm
    This mantra regarding urban life is way overplayed and over-hyped.

  14. Libturd...look me up in Costa Rica says:

    Want my dog?

  15. 3b says:

    Still lots of companies moving to JC the cost is still significantly cheaper than Manhattan. As for Bergen Co it’s getting very shabby looking in many formerly nice towns. And that’s from someone who had lived here many years.

  16. Ottoman says:

    Where else can you stroll to a Starbucks, Home Depot, Target and another Starbucks, all on the same block…. except for every strip mall in America. There is absolutely nothing interesting about Manhattan anymore.

    “Manhattan is Manhattan, absolutely the greatest city in the world.”

  17. 3b says:

    And a Whole Foods on Fifth Avenue! As much as the city has improved over the years it has lost its character. It’s becoming Disney fied And bland.

  18. HEHEHE says:

    “Where else can you stroll to a Starbucks, Home Depot, Target and another Starbucks, all on the same block…. except for every strip mall in America. There is absolutely nothing interesting about Manhattan anymore.”

    You forgot to mention all the empty store fronts in between.

  19. Grim says:

    Miss the good old days, dead junkies on the stoop, 42nd street peep shows, quick turn behind the javitz, pot dealers in Washington Square, clubs that would leave you horrified if the house lights ever came on, real dirty water dogs and falafal, restroom…piss anywhere, the Lullaby of Broadway, fake Gucci and fireworks in the same bodega. Good times.

  20. Walking bye says:

    Fast, having moved some development teams from Hudson yards to suburban nj office space, along scenic 78, the reaction from the teams were that they were being punished and on the way out. About 30% of them left the company, another 30% kept going back lo to Manhattan and hotseating. Throw in vacation and sick time and it was a wasted of $ leasing this out. Even running a commuter bus to manhattan and back could not sway them to come work in nj. It was a nice office bldg, built in the mid 80,s with waterfall display and plastic landscaping in a large glass atrium. Nice park like walking trails . To me it’ is current since I grew up in the 80,s. To a millennial it was like telling them to go to work in Paterson.

  21. joyce says:

    https://www.citylab.com/life/2013/11/new-york-three-missed-chances-pay-subway-expansions/7549/

    HEHEHE says:
    October 2, 2018 at 12:21 pm
    Hudson County is such a joke. They’ll let developers through up any building they want without throwing in a dime to improve the lousy infrastructure.

  22. 3b says:

    Nothing like Bryant Park at 2:00 P.M. in the afternoon! Boy it was bad! So I am glad Manhattan is safe now, but I do miss the character in many respects and I miss CBGB s!!

  23. 3b says:

    But I am seeing a lot more homeless people and begging on the subway s

  24. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Have any “mini” Target stores popped up in Manhattan yet? We have a couple of them in Boston now. Just regular, urban, CVS-like stores, but they’re Target instead.

    Where else can you stroll to a Starbucks, Home Depot, Target and another Starbucks, all on the same block…. except for every strip mall in America. There is absolutely nothing interesting about Manhattan anymore.

  25. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    I haven’t been in one yet, but my kids and their friends go there all the time, it seems.

    Of the seven new stores Target bowed in the first quarter ending May 5, six were small-format locations in metropolitan areas such as Los Angeles, Boston and Chicago.

    Today, Target operates an estimated 65 small-format stores across the U.S. It’s now on track to open 30 small-format stores per year, offering convenience perks such as same-day and one-hour delivery.

    All Target stores slated to open in 2019 and 2020 reflect the micro model, ranging from an 11,800-square-foot West Lafayette, Indiana location to a 67,000-square-foot Target on New York Avenue in Washington, D.C.

  26. chicagofinance says:

    The Kavarythmics……. sing it…
    https://youtu.be/AN2hNYAtkDs?t=6m17s

  27. The Great Pumpkin says:

    NYC is great, saying otherwise is pure egotistical bs!

  28. ExEssex says:

    Wow shocking!!!!! Trumps a complete fraud.

  29. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Hmmm…. I think the legal term is lying cuntus

    In a sworn statement provided to the Senate Judiciary Committee, a man who claims to be an ex-boyfriend of Christine Blasey Ford says that he personally witnessed Ford coach a friend on how to take a polygraph exam. If true, it would mean Ford provided false testimony to the Senate Judiciary Committee last week when she claimed she had never had any discussions with anyone about how to take a polygraph.

    https://thefederalist.com/2018/10/02/christine-blasey-fords-ex-boyfriend-told-senate-judiciary-witnessed-coach-friend-polygraphs/

  30. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    I still wonder if Flake and the Democrats were discussing payoff money guaranteed lobbying salary.

  31. Libturd...look me up in Costa Rica says:

    Come on Ex. When we are arguing in the car in Costa Rica, you better do better then that. And what are you worried about? He’ll be confirmed on Friday.

  32. Libturd...look me up in Costa Rica says:

    I don’t want to end up in a Costa Rican jail!

  33. Libturd...look me up in Costa Rica says:

    Than that. Oy.

  34. MAGA2020 says:

    The fear of flying was a lie. The reason for putting an additional front door was a lie. Is there anything left from Christine the liar? Nothing I can recall. Certainly diminished the credibility the metoo movement to see it exploited by Democrat activists.

  35. leftwing says:

    “I still wonder if Flake and the Democrats were discussing payoff money salary.”

    Trying to figure out the whole Flake thing myself.

    I suspect the someone has some serious dirt on him. Look at the photos of him during the hearings. He is absolutely anguished, guy looks like someone is holding a gun to his kid’s head.

    Meanwhile he inexplicably announces he won’t seek re-election, this coming from a career politician, due to of all things ‘rampant partisanship’.

    Doesn’t add up. Guy is being squeezed hard by someone, could be Red or Blue. Go back and watch clips, specifically focusing just on him. His balls are in a massive vise.

  36. Yahweh says:

    Libturd
    I’ve got a colleague who is renting in Wayne and thinking of buying in Montclair. Remembering your past complaints, I suggested looking at Glen Ridge instead.
    Can you provide a brief summary for/against Montclair vs other alternatives nearby?

  37. Juice Box says:

    Just back from Chicago, an impressive amount of McMansion building is going on again in their sleepy suburbs. I drove by many a neighborhood full of 1950s era homes being knocked down and replaced with McMansions and the $38,000 annual tax bill to boot.

    Example.

    https://www.zillow.com/homes/for_sale/Burr-Ridge-IL/house_type/101250723_zpid/51202_rid/new-construction_att/globalrelevanceex_sort/41.772239,-87.889853,41.723315,-87.959977_rect/13_zm/1_rs/

  38. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Continue to hold NGLOY, at lest to $13. We received our big dividend yesterday, but you had to own it in August to get that. Someone should teach a course on foreign stocks.

  39. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    First we’ll discuss NRG;-)

    Come on Ex. When we are arguing in the car in Costa Rica, you better do better then that. And what are you worried about? He’ll be confirmed on Friday.

  40. Juice Box says:

    $400,000,000 tax fraud? Why didn’t the Clinton, Bush II, or Obama administration prosecute?

  41. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    I’ve been thinking about the same thing re: the incredibly shrinking Jeff Sessions.

    I suspect the someone has some serious dirt on him.

  42. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    And cut off donation access to that money, if not for themselves, their henchmen?

    $400,000,000 tax fraud? Why didn’t the Clinton, Bush II, or Obama administration prosecute?

  43. TardoBlog says:

    Chant: lock him up – lock him up – lock him up

  44. Libturd...look me up in Costa Rica says:

    “Yahweh”

    Montclair/Glenridge

    Schools:
    Montclair publics get blacker at middle school and moreso at high school. If kid is worker, any college will take him since they see Montclair as urban (dumb libs). You’ll have to make sure kid stays away from bad kids. Elems are fine. School quality diminishes as kids age. It’s never Paterson though.
    Glen Ridge has amazing schools. Really, no bad elements besides rich kids drinking beer and vaping. It’s a small town so everyone knows everyone and people are really generous, especially if you volunteer for sh1t. Since schools are so strong, they are very competitive. If your kids are not strong, not the best place for them. Emphasis is on maintaining high ranking. Woodshop kids be doomed.

    Housing:
    Glen Ridge has similar housing stock but much better maintained. Historical society makes it impossible to change look of house (no Styrofoam squares here). Much richer town on average, though Montclair has more estates. Taxes are about the same in each.

    Government:
    GR municipal services are so much better it’s no comparison. Though no school busing (no one lives more than 2 miles from any school), lots and lots of carpooling going on. Lots more stay at home M1LFs too. They take trash twice a week and even on holidays and take it from wherever you store your cans. Yup, we don’t drag our cans to the curb. Excellent public works too. You can call police and they will let you park in street at night. In Montclair that will be $5 and you’ll have to get a permit. Don’t go during lunch hour, for no one will be there. In Montclair, you’ll get fined for not salting an icy sidewalk or for putting a soda can in your trash. In Glen Ridge, the cops will embarrassingly knock on your door and tell you what you did wrong but only if a neighbor complains about it. It’s a small town. We all know the cops by first name. Heck, one of their kids will be in your kid’s class probably.

    Basically, the draw in Montclair is the MEATHEAD claim of living with diversity and saving the world by doing so. The sad truth is, the town is horribly segregated. So much so that they have to do forced busing to keep people from their neighborhood schools. Upper Montclair is as non-diverse as Glen Ridge. We love Glen Ridge because you get all of the cultural diversity and really cool artsy happenings everywhere you go in Montclair without the negatives that come with it.

    Personally, I live on a street which straddles both towns. My kid hangs with a lot of the Montclair kids. They just don’t school together.

    Also, one town has 40K people, the other less than 8K. This changes everything. Trust me.

  45. ExEssex says:

    (CNN) — At the heart of President Donald Trump’s success story is this idea: He took a small amount of money — in the form of a loan from his father, Fred — and turned it into billions of dollars.
    “My whole life really has been a ‘no’ and I fought through it,” Trump told a crowd in New Hampshire way back in October 2015. “It has not been easy for me, it has not been easy for me. And you know I started off in Brooklyn, my father gave me a small loan of a million dollars.”

  46. MAGA2020 says:

    Congrats Esx, through fake news CNN and nytimes exhaustive research you’ve finally proven that Trump is a blowhard. There was a lot of disagreement about that.

  47. ExEssex says:

    10:10 found the imbecile

  48. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    I guess ExEssex decided today that he doesn’t like Trump. He likes being a lady who was forced to give up his motorcycle, though. I wonder if he is going to be drinking any special drinks with little umbrellas if it rains.

  49. ExEssex says:

    10:35 oh look found the weirdo

  50. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    I figure we have about 60 days left in this uptrending market before we pull back, not necessarily a bear market, just a big correction. Come Thanksgiving the Democrats will be wailing, “SEE? SEE!!! We told you you should have voted for us!!!!”

    Lib and I will be not caring in Costa Rica.

  51. JCer says:

    As someone with inside knowledge of the whole Trump bankruptcies and inheritance tax avoidance schemes. All Fred Trump did is what every billionaire does with regards to the estate tax. It is all legitimate, and that is why the IRS did not and cannot do anything about it. The NYTimes is being intellectually dishonest by not looking at the timings of the valuations and gifts vs. actual market appreciation so they say X was valued at 10 million when it was gifted and Don sold it 10 years later for 100m. The truth is valuations are tricky, they use an independent appraiser to value the assets based on the market at the time of the valuation, then there will be discounting(lack of marketability and control) applied because getting 20% interest in an entity that owns some buildings is not the same as owning the building.

    This is why the estate tax is stupid, the billionaire’s pay very little they have enough to work with that between gifts, loans, maneuvers, trusts, etc they can shelter on average 85% of their assets. They cannot make favorable business dealings criminal so they cannot prevent the transfer. Very simply Fred Trump could sell businesses, buildings, assets to Don at low market value, with favorable financing at Applicable Federal Rates, that complete the transfers in 15-20 years pretty easily. Only the unlucky pay the death tax to it’s fullest(un-expected early deaths).

  52. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    The NYTimes is being intellectually dishonest by not looking at the timings of the valuations and gifts vs. actual market appreciation so they say X was valued at 10 million when it was gifted and Don sold it 10 years later for 100m rooting around in their developing stories bin to find anything, Anything, ANYTHING that might help in derailing the Kavanaugh appointment.

  53. ExEssex says:

    10:42 have ‘another’ beeeer douchebag

  54. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    After next dividend, I’m selling the shares of ARLP I bought 3 years ago. I’ll keep 10% of my holdings in it for the time being. I’m not sure if I go back to diversification or just park it in cash for the time being.

  55. ExEssex says:

    10:44 you know another thing that happens to most billionaires…?

    They have idiot offspring…most tend to blow through the family fortune in less than 3 generations.

    When Trump stiffed all the First Boston bondholders in the 1980s, he ended up drying up any hope of domestic financing. He then turned to Russia… where he is now employed.

  56. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    How’s your “work” day going ExSex?

  57. leftwing says:

    “Through fake news CNN and nytimes exhaustive research you’ve finally proven that Trump is a blowhard. There was a lot of disagreement about that.”

    LOL. Good one. NYT took about 25 pages to arrive at that conclusion. Actually the read was so dense they then put out an “11 Reason Summary” that itself was five pages long. Just put them out of their misery already and make the fold vertical. Go full tabloid, already there substantively.

    JCer 10:44 solid post. I’ve had clients with inheritances that matter, it’s all worked around (which is why an exhorbitant inheritance tax makes so much less sense than a smaller one that people would actually just pay). Both parties (IRS and family) know there is going to be an audit and negotiated amount. Family stakes its position, IRS likewise, they land somewhere in between. Nom probably has some good stories.

  58. chicagofinance says:

    I am really professionally affronted by the NYT piece. This stuff is not public and no one has a right to see it. Yes, I get the point that it counteracts the Trump narrative about being self made very effectively. It is also embarrassing for him. However, all of this stuff is LEGAL TAX AVOIDANCE under the THEN CURRENT rules. It is private information. Whoever leaked this stuff should go to jail. If anyone in my professional circle was caught leaking this stuff, their career would be over…..

    I am all for point out that Trump is a fraud and garbage, but anyone who grew up in NYC knows this fact and doesn’t need the NYT to sink further below their legacy.

    JCer says:
    October 3, 2018 at 10:44 am
    As someone with inside knowledge of the whole Trump bankruptcies and inheritance tax avoidance schemes. All Fred Trump did is what every billionaire does with regards to the estate tax. It is all legitimate, and that is why the IRS did not and cannot do anything about it. The NYTimes is being intellectually dishonest by not looking at the timings of the valuations and gifts vs. actual market appreciation so they say X was valued at 10 million when it was gifted and Don sold it 10 years later for 100m. The truth is valuations are tricky, they use an independent appraiser to value the assets based on the market at the time of the valuation, then there will be discounting(lack of marketability and control) applied because getting 20% interest in an entity that owns some buildings is not the same as owning the building.

    This is why the estate tax is stupid, the billionaire’s pay very little they have enough to work with that between gifts, loans, maneuvers, trusts, etc they can shelter on average 85% of their assets. They cannot make favorable business dealings criminal so they cannot prevent the transfer. Very simply Fred Trump could sell businesses, buildings, assets to Don at low market value, with favorable financing at Applicable Federal Rates, that complete the transfers in 15-20 years pretty easily. Only the unlucky pay the death tax to it’s fullest(un-expected early deaths).

  59. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Always a mistake. You’ll lose more in share price than you’ll capture in dividend.

    After next dividend, I’m selling the shares of ARLP I bought 3 years ago.

  60. chicagofinance says:

    Correct and probably correct.

    ExEssex says:
    October 3, 2018 at 11:00 am
    10:44 you know another thing that happens to most billionaires…?

    They have idiot offspring…most tend to blow through the family fortune in less than 3 generations.

    When Trump stiffed all the First Boston bondholders in the 1980s, he ended up drying up any hope of domestic financing. He then turned to Russia… where he is now employed.

  61. chicagofinance says:

    ? what is the difference

    only issue of relevance is your cap gains rate versus appropriate dividend tax rate

    Blue Ribbon Teacher says:
    October 3, 2018 at 11:00 am
    After next dividend, I’m selling the shares of ARLP I bought 3 years ago. I’ll keep 10% of my holdings in it for the time being. I’m not sure if I go back to diversification or just park it in cash for the time being.

  62. ExEssex says:

    11:00 probably better than your entire life.

  63. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    ExSex’s wife must be glad that she has a job that gets her out of that house, at least for a little while. I guess if she hits happy hour after work there is a good chance that ExSex is passed out for the night when she gets home.

  64. ExEssex says:

    Ah, pulling out the ol’ “wife jabs”. All I can tell you is she’s a solid dime. Gorgeous, successful, and smart. I’m a lucky lucky man.

  65. chicagofinance says:

    A guy I knew distantly in business school. A very good friend of mine set him up with one of his wife’s friends when we were out in Chicago.
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-27/trader-who-ripped-off-mom-friends-in-n-y-suburb-gets-8-years

  66. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    I think I have to go to Chik-fil-A now for lunch, otherwise I’ll be in a long line.

  67. ExEssex says:

    11:17 i’ll Alert the media

  68. Libturd...look me up in Costa Rica says:

    I stopped reading the liberal times when they ran the hit piece on Turner, a prospective Montclair mayor who they deemed a “tea partier” since she was not as far left as the other Dems running. That rag is best suited to be cut up and shaped into pom poms for it’s second biased use.

  69. Bystander says:

    I hate the Orange moron as much as anyone but with any prez, there is always something that that previous presidents created or altered that has now reached critical mass. The MX wall, Obamacare and tax breaks (in the form passed) were completely unnecessary for admin to focus on. I am fine with trade deal negotiation, illegal immigration solution and H1B/H4 abuse as main platforms for Trump as they truly impact all Americans at all levels. He seems to have wasted his political leverage and if midterms go blue then he really will be the dumb, neutered buffoon that he is.

  70. ExEssex says:

    I was hoping that if he won he’d use his powers to build infrastructure, put people back to work, and create some real sensible policies. But he essentially used his term to reward the very rich. Neato.

  71. Libturd...look me up in Costa Rica says:

    “But he essentially used his term to reward the very rich. Neato.”

    Just like Obama did.

  72. ExEssex says:

    Lib, I don’t have anything against the rich, I’ve got some on the other side of the family. In fact, though, “rich” is a funny term. Spend a little time here or manhattan and you’ll realize most people you know with money are a long long way from rich. Others will sell their souls to make the payments on their master card. No, I get it, we live in a consumer driven, wealth-obsessed Nation. But there are so many other glaring needs to be looked after. I completely agree with your views on almost everything here. Except maybe you choice of traveling companions but maybe he’s a good laugh and a decent wingman in a bar. Either way! Count me as the “Blue Dog” here.

  73. ExEssex says:

    And for the record. Indica makes you nap, Sativa brings you up, and Hybrids keep you even keeled.

  74. Not JCer says:

    With the Fred Trump,Inc, I see 2 very common strategies for asset protection. These 2 are in every for-profit nursing home operator, are very common in FIRE, and many times the corporations are foreign/offshore. Those are the ground lease and mortgage/loans with above market rates to subsidiaries.

    The use of “All County Supplies” like Fred Trump uses, as a suppliers to subsidiary with built in markup, and even now with employees – both permanent and temporaries is also very common in the nursing home industries. The idea is – well, you can sue for your grandpa’s bad care, but look in our book, we are broke and full of debt, here is $10,000 and go away.

    Now the valuation of assets into/out of GRATs is the one for the IRS, and like a poster says, is like everyone takes “their number” and is negotiated away with IRS and lawyers in audit.

  75. Juice Box says:

    Essex – There are big shortages in all of the building trades, these are the jobs you speak of. “build infrastructure, put people back to work”

    Look another magic wand alert! “U.S. adds 230,000 private-sector jobs in September: ADP.”

  76. Juice Box says:

    This will trigger more than a few today.

    Presidential alert to go out.

    “At 2:18pm ET, the Federal Emergency Management Agency will send a short alert, saying: “THIS IS A TEST of the National Wireless Emergency Alert System. No action is needed.” A few minutes later, televisions and radio broadcasts will briefly suspend and a similar message will run.

  77. Libturd...look me up in Costa Rica says:

    I would have the alert say, “China!” and that’s all.

  78. Fast Eddie says:

    I guess the dems figure the s.exual assault thing failed so now it’s on to Trump and taxes again. Dem supporters wouldn’t know much about wealth management. How long does MSNBC milk this story now?

    By the way, did the NYT or CNN report on the recent economic numbers?

    And how’s that Russian collusion thing coming along?

  79. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    If only we could get that unemployment rate down to -2%. ExSex needs to go for a ride in his four wheel motorcycle (girlie BMW) that his wife made him buy. I applaud her though. We have enough day time drunks on Harleys as it is.

    ExEssex says:
    October 3, 2018 at 11:26 am
    I was hoping that if he won he’d use his powers to build infrastructure, put people back to work

  80. Libturd...look me up in Costa Rica says:

    Westex.

    I could share a ride with anyone. If you met some of the Uber/Lyft drivers I’ve had, you would find traveling with ExPat a breeze. Honestly though, I have no enemies. I know people have agendas. That’s fine. I really live by one rule. Don’t let YOUR beliefs fcuk with MY life. Besides that, I can listen and argue all day long. It’s all good. Life’s to short to not love your enemy. Not that I believe in Jesus. But I’m pretty sure that’s the message he was spreading. The friggin’ disciples screwed things all up. What do you expect? They’re all human. At the end of the day, just give me a roof to sleep under and some fresh fish and vegetables and I’m pretty happy. People can believe and do whatever it is they want to waste their time on. More power to them.

  81. HEHEHE says:

    “I am all for point out that Trump is a fraud and garbage, but anyone who grew up in NYC knows this fact and doesn’t need the NYT to sink further below their legacy.”

    Sadly the NYT and WaPo have become “Fox Newsified”. Same with CNN and MSNBC though one could argue they’ve always been.

    What used to be news sources with a Liberal bent have now basically become the PR arm of the Democratic Party.

    They’ve done it as much for the political preference as they have for the financial survival.

    If the political population is 30-40% Dem, 30-40% Rep and 30% Independent better to put out a slanted product to at least assure you get that 30-40%.

  82. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Two lawyers have been let go recently.

    https://chicago.suntimes.com/politics/robert-mueller-donald-trump-shedding-lawyers-attorneys-russia-investigation/

    And how’s that Russian collusion thing coming along?

  83. Libturd...look me up in Costa Rica says:

    Ten-year at 3.13 and VIX pretty much at its record low. This is a crazy good market. I hope all those morons who read the Times didn’t listen to their prized Nobel economist.

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/projects/cp/opinion/election-night-2016/paul-krugman-the-economic-fallout

  84. Fast Eddie says:

    Yesterday U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that the U.S. economy’s “historically rare pairing of steady, low inflation and very low unemployment is testament to the fact that we remain in extraordinary times.”

    “Unprecedented” I believe is the word he used.

    Wages are rising at their fastest rate in a decade, a sign of the growing tightness of the labor market. Retailers and fast-food chains are offering such perks as free meals, bonuses and transit cards to recruit holiday workers, and Amazon.com, the country’s second-largest private employer, announced Tuesday that it is raising pay to at least $15 an hour for all of its 350,000 workers.

    Any questions?

  85. chicagofinance says:

    My clients are going to be shocked when I point this out…… most people feel truly awful right now….
    http://pages.marketintelligence.spglobal.com/rs/565-BDO-100/images/dashboard-us-2018-09.pdf?mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiTURZNE1tSXpNV05pTldVMiIsInQiOiJmQm5cL2hYUEJ1WGYxT0Y5UXZCbDB5RFRXQmFXcnFqVVJOZHlPdVRZRFkxMXM3cXJuYVVEVUJVVExhajYrQk15NTRUbkhrYko1bWt4bUxoOEZxdFFcL05kajFVdk8ya0N5V3gzbndacVFTQXZ3Y0FJdzBBZmVZTGRVTm9aZTZPWnZKIn0%3D

    Fast Eddie says:
    October 3, 2018 at 12:35 pm
    I guess the dems figure the s.exual assault thing failed so now it’s on to Trump and taxes again. Dem supporters wouldn’t know much about wealth management. How long does MSNBC milk this story now?

    By the way, did the NYT or CNN report on the recent economic numbers?

    And how’s that Russian collusion thing coming along?

  86. HEHEHE says:

    “I suspect the someone has some serious dirt on him. Look at the photos of him during the hearings. He is absolutely anguished, guy looks like someone is holding a gun to his kid’s head.”

    I had the day off the day of the committee vote. Some “rape victims” ambushed him in front of the cameras, convenient the cameras were right there, the morning of the committee vote which may explain some of his anguish that day. I put it in quotes not to demean rape victims but just acknowledging that this circus is so nuts that you’ve no idea what is or isn’t legit. Could have been real victims; could have been DNC actors claiming to be victims with friendly reporters in tow; that’s how batshit things were that morning.

  87. ExEssex says:

    12:35 I like the fact that somehow this shit got into your head. But yeah you’re strange.

  88. ExEssex says:

    Let me say this about “that” bike. It’s in a better place. Its on Tour with Judas Priest and every night he rides it out on stage. It got a new Paint Job or Wrap or whatever they do to them. Did it bother me to see it go? not really. I like it a helluva lot better out east than I did once it got out here. Reason being. The vast amount of ground you have to cover and the speed in which you need to cover it to get anywhere in this area means that a ‘chopper ‘ just doesn’t really make for the idea motorcycle. I’d opt for something far more stable at 80/90 mph which is where you will find yourself at highway speeds. Me? I’m too old for that shit.

  89. ExEssex says:

    12:36 damn…nailed.

  90. chicagofinance says:

    The president of Georgetown University is denouncing an associate professor’s wish for the “miserable deaths” of supporters of Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh, saying such statements run counter to the institution’s values.

    Georgetown President John DeGioia issued a statement Tuesday after associate professor C. Christine Fair tweeted on Saturday about the “chorus of entitled white men” supporting Kavanaugh’s nomination despite sexual assault allegations against him.

    “All of them deserve miserable deaths while feminists laugh as they take their last gasps,” Fair’s tweet continued. “Bonus: we castrate their corpses and feed them to swine? Yes.”

  91. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    I don’t think you go anywhere, so it really doesn’t matter what you don’t ride or drive. WiFi and Vodka is all you need.

    ExEssex says:
    October 3, 2018 at 1:19 pm
    Let me say this about “that” bike. It’s in a better place. Its on Tour with Judas Priest and every night he rides it out on stage. It got a new Paint Job or Wrap or whatever they do to them. Did it bother me to see it go? not really. I like it a helluva lot better out east than I did once it got out here. Reason being. The vast amount of ground you have to cover and the speed in which you need to cover it to get anywhere in this area means that a ‘chopper ‘ just doesn’t really make for the idea motorcycle. I’d opt for something far more stable at 80/90 mph which is where you will find yourself at highway speeds. Me? I’m too old for that shit.

  92. D-FENS says:

    Post Janus lawsuits starting… really helps you understand why they are fighting so hard to keep Kavinaugh off the supreme court:

    https://americansforprosperity.org/union-members-sue-governor-phil-murphy-for-failing-to-protect-employee-freedoms/

    Union Members Sue Governor Phil Murphy for Failing to Protect Employee Freedoms
    OCT 3, 2018 BY AFP
    Parsippany, NJ – Today, AFSCME Local 3790 union members filed a lawsuit against New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy and Attorney General Gurbir Grewal, challenging the constitutionality of Assembly Bill A3686 – misleadingly titled the “Workplace Democracy Enhancement Act” – signed into law on May 17th. The key argument underlying the case is whether or not government employees have a constitutional right at any time to: (1) leave a union; and (2) end financial support to it.

    At issue is a provision of A3686 that unreasonably limits a union member’s ability to resign to “the 10 days following each anniversary date of their employment” – intended to preempt the June 27 U.S. Supreme Court decision in Janus v AFSCME, which held that “unless the employee affirmatively consents to pay” that dues or fees cannot be taken from them.

  93. No One says:

    Chifi,
    At least she wasn’t in favor of live castration and then feeding the parts to pigs while the men watched. Because that would have been really mean. The willingness to put them to death first really showed Fair’s feminine, softer side.

  94. Juice Box says:

    got my presidential alert, let the triggering begin.

  95. ExEssex says:

    2:02 no need really. Got a pool, Mountain View. Fridge full of food. Cable…clean undies

  96. Comrade Nom Deplume, the deplumiest says:

    “ExEssex says:
    October 3, 2018 at 10:16 am
    10:10 found the imbecile”

    then step away from the mirror, zip your fly, and get out of the bathroom

  97. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    ^^^^LOL!

  98. Comrade Nom DePlume, who is only a test says:

    “Juice Box says:
    October 3, 2018 at 12:19 pm
    This will trigger more than a few today.

    Presidential alert to go out.

    “At 2:18pm ET, the Federal Emergency Management Agency will send a short alert, saying: “THIS IS A TEST of the National Wireless Emergency Alert System. No action is needed.” A few minutes later, televisions and radio broadcasts will briefly suspend and a similar message will run.”

    I’m triggered by the old EBS tests. Always in the middle of my favorite shows or songs.

  99. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    2:02 no need really. Got a pool, Mountain View. Fridge full of food. Cable…clean undies, get up at 3AM Pacific time, post on NJReReport.

    You certainly have the complete life! Staying put, by yourself, is probably your greatest contribution to society. Thanks!

  100. Libturd...look me up in Costa Rica says:

    Any of you fools ever eat at Fish & Rice by the Willowbrook Mall? Went there a few nights ago with the kids and it was surprisingly good and reasonable. Though, if you are looking for typical sushi joint ambiance, this is not it. It’s a hole in the wall. But they don’t skimp on fish quality or portion sizes. Heck, the $12 Bento Box the D got was monstrous and really good. Awesome miso soup too.

  101. Grim says:

    Go long vix?

  102. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    I was on 287 during the presidential alert. I saw 5 cars swerve simultaneously.

  103. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    I don’t think I’ve ever eaten cheap seafood that made me sick. Bargain seafood is always of interest to me. Circa 1986 I had a share in a Killington ski house, I went up early and skied before my friends got there. At the end of the week everyone, including my girlfriend, was heading, back, but I didn’t. I skiied a great day at Pico (now owned by Killington) and had a seafood salad for lunch. The skiing was so great that I considered getting a cheap motel and skiing Monday too. I’m so glad I didn’t. I got home to my apartment in Wayne about 10PM on Sunday. I had tightness in my chest. My midnight I was doing gymnastics in my bathroom to use the commode in all the ways it was intended to be used. By the next morning I was so glad to be home, despite the continued symptoms. I was thinking about how bad it would have been to be in a cheap motel room, 4-5 hours from home, feeling that way.

  104. Libturd...look me up in Costa Rica says:

    Confucius always say, ” He who eat 1/2 price sushi, always pay twice!”

  105. chicagofinance says:

    Anyone who is a CFA going to the dinner at the end of the month? Just checking…..

  106. chicagofinance says:

    Also left…… Princeton tix go on sale Monday I think…….

  107. 1987 Condo says:

    I know the limit on SALT ended the world, but there must be a few like myself who was not getting the deduction anyway….

    “For Kiely, the change will be for the better.
    He said he pays property taxes of more than $10,000, and he was also hit my AMT, which limits certain kinds of deductions. In Kiely’s case, he said, AMT disallowed all or part of his and his wife’s personal exemption, their real estate tax and their New Jersey income tax.

    “For all practical purposes I wasn’t able to deduct those items at all. So with the enlarged standard deduction and revamping of the AMT, I am actually going to pay less tax then in prior years,” Kiely said.”

    https://www.nj.com/business/index.ssf/2018/10/pay_more_than_10k_in_property_taxes_why_the_tax_la.html

  108. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    The night I proposed to my wife I also got food poisoning. I had both seafood stew and carpaccio, take your pick. I’ve since seen my wife eat what looked like a half pound uncooked burger as steak tartar, with no ill effects. Crazy.

  109. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    ^^^^ BTW, that was at Locke-Ober in Boston. That’s the place where you add up your age and your date’s age and it is still less than your waiter’s age.

  110. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I have a question? Which poster here said this would be the best economic run of our lifetime and was laughed at? Trump played a little role, won’t argue that, but this was simply coming no matter who was president.

    Fast Eddie says:
    October 3, 2018 at 12:58 pm
    Yesterday U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that the U.S. economy’s “historically rare pairing of steady, low inflation and very low unemployment is testament to the fact that we remain in extraordinary times.”

    “Unprecedented” I believe is the word he used.
    Wages are rising at their fastest rate in a decade, a sign of the growing tightness of the labor market. Retailers and fast-food chains are offering such perks as free meals, bonuses and transit cards to recruit holiday workers, and Amazon.com, the country’s second-largest private employer, announced Tuesday that it is raising pay to at least $15 an hour for all of its 350,000 workers.

    Any questions?

  111. The Great Pumpkin says:

    It’s the truth. Anyone with a large tax bill was not getting killed by the elimination of salt because they were already not getting them.

    1987 Condo says:
    October 3, 2018 at 4:47 pm
    I know the limit on SALT ended the world, but there must be a few like myself who was not getting the deduction anyway….

    “For Kiely, the change will be for the better.
    He said he pays property taxes of more than $10,000, and he was also hit my AMT, which limits certain kinds of deductions. In Kiely’s case, he said, AMT disallowed all or part of his and his wife’s personal exemption, their real estate tax and their New Jersey income tax.

    “For all practical purposes I wasn’t able to deduct those items at all. So with the enlarged standard deduction and revamping of the AMT, I am actually going to pay less tax then in prior years,” Kiely said.”

    https://www.nj.com/business/index.ssf/2018/10/pay_more_than_10k_in_property_taxes_why_the_tax_la.html

  112. The Great Pumpkin says:

    How is it that the cops watching construction workers work are getting paid way more than the guys doing the work? Serve and protect! As$holes.

  113. No One says:

    Chifi,
    That annual dinner on Oct 30 at the Mandarin Oriental looks boring. An asset owner panel. If you go, let me know if they say anything interesting, like – “there’s no way we’re actually going to earn the future annualized returns we’re predicting”.
    What’s really funny is that GMO earlier this year or late last said the only asset class with a chance of generating positive real returns is EM equities. Guy wrote an essay saying if he was Stalin’s pension manager he’d put everything in EM, at least giving him a chance of not being shot in 7 years. Not working so far.

  114. leftwing says:

    HeHe, watched both days. Look closely. That’s not moral pain, not pain associated with being ambushed by some hairy armed dykes. That is an OMG I’m going to lose my family and everything else important to me look.

    Flake was a political animal. Elected to Congress in 2000, has spent half his adult life in politics faithfully moving up the ladder. Out of nowhere he quits – citing crass partisanship – and is getting crazy squeezed.

    Not sure if it’s Red or Blue. May very well be Red leaning on him since his surprise won’t run again announcement came right after the Moore fiasco. Either way, I know that look. I’ve seen it on drunks when they’ve run out of rope, I’ve seen it on loan foreclosures when the borrower realizes he’s through the five stages and the sh1t’s really hitting the fan. Mark it down, it may not matter, but my radar says something is way deeper here than a 35 year old bump and grind on some needy 15 year old for this guy. The guy is a squeaky clean Mormon with wife and five kids. He’s playing for those marbles.

  115. leftwing says:

    “These 2 are in every for-profit nursing home operator…The idea is – well, you can sue for your grandpa’s bad care, but look in our book, we are broke and full of debt, here is $10,000 and go away.”

    Ancient history now but back in the early aughts the big public LTC operators’ share prices were getting crucified by lawsuits in litigation friendly states like Florida and TX. Got to the point where they would divest these assets and their share prices would pop. One of the big operators – can’t remember which, likely Genesis or Mariner – dumped these geographies, losing nearly a quarter of revenue and almost as much EPS and the shares actually moved up strongly.

    The buyers of assets in these geographies were a few private equity groups that took the assets and split the operations and real estate. Recall doing the debt and bonds, the business plan was very clear. If the lawsuit isn’t settled for near zero the keys are pushed across table for OpCo. RealtyCo is separate and getting rent from OpCo.

    Recall ROFLMAO as a client attorney on one of these financings recounted one of these negotiations. Some POS ambulance chaser suing for seven figures for bedsores, they literally pushed the keys to the facility across the table and told the attorney that the receptionist changes over at 8a and please make sure the desk is staffed. Keys kept getting pushed back to him until he negotiated himself down to 5k, lol.

    IIRC Tepper was pretty involved in one of these before he was a gazillionaire. Big return.

  116. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Pretty funny skit about the tax cut.

    https://youtu.be/VrCNKT69Ep8

  117. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Roaring 20’s 2.0…..let’s go!! Economic run for the ages, stuff dreams are made of. Njrereport hit this prediction almost 10 years in advance. What a time to be alive.

    “Investors propelled bond yields to multiyear highs Wednesday as robust economic data and an easing of trade tensions across North America sparked fresh optimism about the global growth outlook”

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/bond-yields-surge-signaling-growth-hopes-1538602977?emailToken=4a1c27fdc3b6fe5431518b2168c937bcPILSk30vNlHp0GSZqHkT9SwXUqIfFWSo9O/mqq0hlq5+vGyyK63G9aXwEoovcuwoa194ziU8iFAE9ZU2j6hQHJXAe+2BPBulaa/gLDTiwxo%3D&reflink=article_copyURL_share

  118. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Wage inflation call was so on point. 6 years out in an environment where stagflation looked the norm. Simply amazing.

    “Whether it’s job cre­ation, un­em­ploy­ment, wage growth…just across the board on the var­i­ous mea­sures of growth, it’s strong,” said Dan Miller, di­rec­tor of eq­ui­ties at GW&K In­vest­ment Man­age-ment.

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