NY & CT lose population, NJ gains

From the Census Department:

Nevada and Idaho Are the Nation’s Fastest-Growing States

he U.S. population grew by 0.6 percent and Nevada and Idaho were the nation’s fastest-growing states between July 1, 2017, and July 1, 2018. Both states’ populations increased by about 2.1 percent in the last year alone. Following Nevada and Idaho for the largest percentage increases in population were Utah (1.9 percent), Arizona (1.7 percent), and Florida and Washington (1.5 percent each).

Washington, D.C., reached a population of 702,455 in July 2018, surpassing 700,000 for the first time since 1975, according to the U.S. Census Bureau’s national and state population estimates released today. The change is due primarily to an influx of people from other parts of the country that began early in the decade. While the increase has begun to slow, the District of Columbia still grew by almost 1 percent last year.

Population declines were also common, with losses occurring in nine states and Puerto Rico. The nine states that lost population last year were New York (down 48,510), Illinois (45,116), West Virginia (11,216), Louisiana (10,840), Hawaii (3,712), Mississippi (3,133), Alaska (2,348), Connecticut (1,215) and Wyoming (1,197).

This entry was posted in Demographics, Economics, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

73 Responses to NY & CT lose population, NJ gains

  1. dentss says:

    First

  2. No One says:

    First!

  3. grim says:

    2017-2018 Population Change
    NY: -48,510
    NJ: +19,997
    CT: -1,215
    PA: +16,613
    MA: +38,903

    2010-2018 Population Change
    NY: +164,107
    NJ: +116,626
    CT: -1,432
    PA: +104,681
    MA: +335,718

  4. Yo! says:

    Will be interesting to see the county figures when they are released in March. 3 predictions:

    1) Majority of NJ population gain happened in just one county
    2) New York City lost population in 2018
    3) NY Times will write article expressing shock at the city’s population loss

  5. grim says:

    1) Majority of NJ population gain happened in just one county

    I’ll offer an alternative, Northeast NJ gained population, the other parts of the state lost.

    South Jersey big loser, West Jersey big loser. Northeast net gains, above what population shift would account for.

  6. Sal Outwin says:

    Wait till the see how must they lose in SALT deductions ..

  7. grim says:

    Grim’s forecast for 2018 county estimates

    Atlantic – Loss
    Bergen – Gain
    Burlington – Loss
    Camden – Loss
    Cape May – Loss
    Cumberland – Loss
    Essex – Gain
    Gloucester – Loss
    Hudson – Gain
    Hunterdon – Loss
    Mercer – Gain
    Middlesex – Gain
    Monmouth – Gain/Loss – Tossup
    Morris – Gain/Loss – Tossup
    Ocean – Gain
    Passaic – Gain
    Salem – Loss
    Somerset – Gain
    Sussex – Loss
    Union – Gain
    Warren – Loss

    In terms of net gain:
    #1 – Hudson
    #2 – Bergen
    #3 – Essex
    #4 – Union

  8. grim says:

    Realize those forecasts are as easy as shooting fish in a barrel.

    8 years of trended data on population change and building permits, done-zo.

    Did get a little fancy to understand where shrinking household sizes are offsetting new unit construction that would otherwise predict population gain.

    Too bad you can’t profit from it.

  9. 1987 Condo says:

    Certainly agree with Grim list. Morris/Monmouth is the toss up, 2017 estimates show very slight up for Morris, very slight down Monmouth.

    https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/morriscountynewjersey,monmouthcountynewjersey/PST045218

  10. joyce says:

    Plus 1-3 towns in Ocean County.

    Yo! says:
    December 20, 2018 at 7:23 am
    Will be interesting to see the county figures when they are released in March. 3 predictions:

    1) Majority of NJ population gain happened in just one county

  11. Libturd...look me up in Costa Rica says:

    “Too bad you can’t profit from it.”

    Unless you are a developer. :P

  12. Fast Eddie says:

    Ocean County… where culture goes to die, among other things. My family had a second home in the Toms River area years ago and I bought my first house in that area. After living there full time for two years, I couldn’t wait to come back north. The only appeal I could gather was that it was cheaper to live. The commute is a nightmare. Other than that, it has no redeeming qualities whatsoever. It’s not even close to a major city so it can’t establish an identity. Cable companies give you Philly and NY stations. Other than the shore towns near the Monmouth border, what’s the draw? Ugh.. it was dreadful living there.

  13. Libturd...look me up in Costa Rica says:

    The story of my Red Bank friends (you know the couple who bought their home in the early 2000s and still owe more on it than what they paid for it) gets more interesting. Girls father in law (great guy btw) recently passed from boozing (mom passed a long time ago from the big C) and left them huge inheritance. They haven’t sold the old place though it’s been listed for well over a month. They have bought a new place that cost a hair under 800K with huge property (and huger property taxes). Dad is on school board now so he thinks he has a future in politics. Mom, she studied to be a shrink but really hasn’t worked much yet though she’s approaching 50. Daughter is in 9th grade. When most are downsizing. They are moving into a home with 1,400 square foot of living space per person. I have no idea how large the inheritance was, but it included about $500,000 worth of Jackson retirement community home. My guess is that they but about 400 K down and mortgaged the remaining 400K which equals what they still owed on their old place. Sadly, the old place looks like it’s going to sell for less than they thought it was worth. I imagine they will run out of money in five years or so. Money goes fast when one is carrying 800K in mortgages.

    I still can’t fathom how one could still owe more than they paid on a home they purchased over 20 years ago. They last refi’d to pay off the credit cards again about two years ago.

  14. Libturd...look me up in Costa Rica says:

    Holy masochism of the English language in that post. Sorry. Doing way too much at once. You get the gist.

  15. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    My father bought a McMansion in 1998 for 650k. It would have sold in 2008 for 950k. He owed 900k on it after a bunch of equity loans.

    In 1988, he bought a McMansion in Florida for. We moved back to NJ 6 months later. Took him years to sell it at a major loss. It sold a few years back, you’re talking 25 to 30 years later still below original purchase price. Imagine paying off your entire mortgage over the 30 years and having a home worth less?

    Needless to say, my father’s been a huge loser with real estate. But…then again…he’s had 2 other properties that he let go into foreclosure. He borrowed something like 1.8 million from all of them combined and then went into bankruptcy so maybe he was the big winner after all? He has no money now though.

  16. Juice Box says:

    Turd you made it a bit easy to identify your friends. Might want to scrub.

  17. Libturd...look me up in Costa Rica says:

    Eh. Only if you read the blog.

    Grim…pull Red Bank out of that if you can. That should be do it.

  18. D-FENS says:

    Did the Fed engineer a recession?

  19. Libturd, can't say I didn't warn you. says:

    Any of you people here do EARNY? I did PARABUS ages ago and it kind of sucked.

  20. Fast Eddie says:

    Thinking about a 12 -month to 15-month CD. Should I wait a little longer to see if I get more rate? Any suggestions on who has the best rates for this time period? I did a search but may have missed something. I also prefer a brick and mortar place where I can walk into and face someone or does it matter? Thoughts?

  21. Juice Box says:

    Look out TESLA Audi E-Tron GT

  22. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Unbelievable.

    “I still can’t fathom how one could still owe more than they paid on a home they purchased over 20 years ago. They last refi’d to pay off the credit cards again about two years ago.”

  23. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Sure looks like it.

    D-FENS says:
    December 20, 2018 at 10:15 am
    Did the Fed engineer a recession?

  24. Juice Box says:

    “to take away the punch bowl just as the party gets going,”The Federal Reserve jacked up interest rates before all 12 of the post-World War II recessions.

    This time be the exception?

  25. D-FENS says:

    RE the Trump bumpstock ban… who cares right?

    Well, it looks like some ordinary recoil pads used on the stocks of many rifles and shotguns would fit the definition. You are now a felon. You’ve been warned…

  26. Bystander says:

    Gain is all Middlesex as more H1-Bs flow into the area, unfettered. Hudson county gains are married, high dual income, Indian IT professionals with one child, paying insane bubble prices.

  27. Glen says:

    I could see population in morris going up. There’s a very large apartment complex in rockaway at the 80/15 interchange that opened recently, and another huge complex that just opened in roxbury right of 80. build, build, build!

  28. Libturd...look me up in Costa Rica says:

    Saw those Glen. Those are popping up everywhere. But not in Costa Rica. :P

  29. Juice Box says:

    History Rhymes – talk about the short sellers again today. Seems the robots are winning, history Rhymes folks ala 2007 “quant meltdown”.

    Save the Robots…aka HFT Algos..

  30. grim says:

    Robots on the attack today

  31. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I wouldn’t be surprised if the recession is already here. Seems that the powers that be have already taken that position and are acting on it. Layoffs out of nowhere is all the evidence you need to support this.

    My god, the power the fed has….

    Juice Box says:
    December 20, 2018 at 11:11 am
    “to take away the punch bowl just as the party gets going,”The Federal Reserve jacked up interest rates before all 12 of the post-World War II recessions.

    This time be the exception?

  32. The Great Pumpkin says:

    They are evolving…..learning how to get around the ” Great wall of Grim.”

    grim says:
    December 20, 2018 at 1:15 pm
    Robots on the attack toda

  33. The Great Pumpkin says:

    The game has changed…. what once applied, no longer applies today.

    Juice Box says:
    December 20, 2018 at 1:12 pm
    History Rhymes – talk about the short sellers again today. Seems the robots are winning, history Rhymes folks ala 2007 “quant meltdown”.

    Save the Robots…aka HFT Algos..

  34. Fast Eddie says:

    I wouldn’t be surprised if the recession is already here.

    Thank God real estate in North Jersey only goes up.

  35. Ninja Warrior says:

    Thoughts on this “portfolio”?

    House worth 1.2M today with a 400K mortgage balance.

    500K cash sitting in various FDIC insured online banks, earning 2% risk free, and fully liquid.

    Zero stocks, bonds, etc.

    Age: 45 to 50.

    I don’t trust most “investments” (casin0), save a lot of money, and don’t spend too much.

    Being liquid means not worrying about layoffs, and can start a business if needed to survive.

    Am I crazy? Thoughts? Advice? Should I write a book?

  36. Yo! says:

    https://www.zillow.com/homes/for_sale/39404175_zpid/40.791719,-74.632444,40.715257,-74.750547_rect/12_zm/1_fr/

    Asking price on Morris County house whacked below $1 million. Sold in 2015 for $2,100,000.

  37. aj says:

    $32k in taxes that you cant deduct anymore….

    …the gift that keeps on giving.

    Pretty soon you’ll have to pay someone to take this house and assume the taxes.

  38. Grim says:

    Yo – that’s got to be an error.

  39. joyce says:

    In November 2018, the owner was convicted of multiple federal felonies. He faces up to 45 years in prison.

    Completely unrelated, the previous sale has NU26.

    Grim says:
    December 20, 2018 at 2:20 pm
    Yo – that’s got to be an error.

  40. Libturd says:

    Pumpkin’s dad owned that place?

  41. Juice Box says:

    That will get the trains running on time! (NOT)

    “Gov. Phil Murphy signed a bill Thursday morning reforming New Jersey Transit’s oversight and governance after the measure received unanimous approval in both chambers of the state Legislature on Monday.

    Senate Bill 630 will overhaul the agency’s board of directors, require meetings for schedule changes, such as the suspension of the Atlantic City line, and broaden the scope of documents the agency will have to publicly disclose.

    “This puts into work one simple concept: New Jersey Transit works for commuters and not the other way around,” Murphy said.”

    http://www.njbiz.com/article/20181220/NJBIZ01/181229990/murphy-signs-nj-transit-oversight-governance-reform-bill

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  43. Juice Box says:

    Who shot Santa Claus?

    Dow 22,773.04 -550.62 -2.36%

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  45. Juice Box says:

    More about the Robots….since Mnuchin and Trump will be blaming them…

    What percent of exchange volume never carries a position overnight (provides no real liquidity)?

  46. Ninja Warrior says:

    No feedback on my “investing” strategy?

  47. Libturd...look me up in Costa Rica says:

    You are not investing.

  48. chicagofinance says:

    #1 do you have a spouse?
    #2 do you have kids?
    #3 what is your health?
    #4 what is your job? do you enjoy it?
    #5 what is your mortgage interest rate?

    $500,000 is excessive…..

    Ninja Warrior says:
    December 20, 2018 at 1:31 pm
    Thoughts on this “portfolio”?

    House worth 1.2M today with a 400K mortgage balance.

    500K cash sitting in various FDIC insured online banks, earning 2% risk free, and fully liquid.

    Zero stocks, bonds, etc.

    Age: 45 to 50.

    I don’t trust most “investments” (casin0), save a lot of money, and don’t spend too much.

    Being liquid means not worrying about layoffs, and can start a business if needed to survive.

    Am I crazy? Thoughts? Advice? Should I write a book?

  49. No One says:

    Ninja,
    Missing too much information for most educated people to speculate on the answer.
    Like how much money do you make, how likely will you keep making it.
    How much money do you spend, and how much money do you expect to spend in the future. How much will you spend on your retirement house.
    My best guess is at some point you will be able to swap your NJ home equity for cheaper home elsewhere with no mortgage. Which then leaves you with half a million cash, which is slightly losing purchasing power due to inflation.
    If you have a juicy pension and postretirement benefits, you’ll probably be fine living off those. If you don’t, then your social security and accumulated cash will have to cover your living expenses.
    What is the alternative strategy you think people would push you toward? Downsizing now and getting out of the mortgage? Taking out loans to buy stock? Putting your cash into other assets?

  50. No One says:

    Of course, Pumpkin believes himself to be the most brilliant of our investment strategists on this board, and I’m surprised he hasn’t already told you about his one weird trick for getting rich.

  51. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Bingo!

    Libturd…look me up in Costa Rica says:
    December 20, 2018 at 4:20 pm
    You are not investing.

  52. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I don’t know how old the individual is or how long they have been doing this, but my advice is that you are losing tons of money by being ultra conservative. Who the hell lets the bank have 500k unless you are old and need to be ultra conservative?

    Dude thinks he is saving money by not risking it, when it reality he is robbing himself blind. Money needs to work my friend, that’s all I can say.

    No One says:
    December 20, 2018 at 4:33 pm
    Of course, Pumpkin believes himself to be the most brilliant of our investment strategists on this board, and I’m surprised he hasn’t already told you about his one weird trick for getting rich.

  53. Ninja Warrior says:

    Chicagofinance:
    1 spouse, 1 child in elementary school, good health so far and in shape, household income is 180K give or take, mortgage rate is 3.7% on a 30-year fixed mortgage which we prepay by $500 extra towards principal each month.

  54. The Great Pumpkin says:

    No doubt the self induced recession is here. They had to shut down the party I guess.

  55. Libturd...look me up in Costa Rica says:

    Ninja…you are fine. You should take on some risk. I plunge toilets.

  56. joyce says:

    Juice Box,
    What percentage of exchange volume carries its position for less than 2 seconds?

    Older blog post:
    https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=209947

  57. Ninja Warrior says:

    No One:
    I expect to remain in the house for another 15 to 20 years, then cash out. Probably close to $2M cash by then, but who knows.

    Obviously I’m very risk averse, and between Moodys rating garbage as “AAA”, market declines, automated trading, giant banks buying and selling millions of shares to move the market, I’m not a big fan of the market.

    Just wanted feedback, as I’m not sure how to gauge “how I’m doing” because it seems no one is in the same boat. House sold today, plus cash, is about $1M, so maybe $2M in 20 years, if not dead, then maybe go to Florida and start a small business (deli or something).

  58. Ninja Warrior says:

    LOL

    “Ninja…you are fine. You should take on some risk. I plunge toilets.”

  59. No One says:

    This is literally one of the first things I found when I googled retirement planning simulation. There are many other free tools. I would warn you that asset class volatility is not the only risk to consider. Such as the possibility of ongoing negative real returns to cash.
    https://www.thebalance.com/stress-test-retirement-income-plan-2388487
    But I’m not going to tell someone else how much volatility or potential for loss they want to bear.
    I’m not making a prediction, but I will note that someone with your situation from 1970 to 1982 would have faced a big diminution of real wealth through inflation. Of course people with different situations may have done even worse.
    Starting small businesses seem a riskier proposition to me than some financial assets, and that too can take upfront capital.
    Anyway, personal finance isn’t my specialty.

  60. Grim says:

    I wouldn’t bank on the house to fund your retirement, that’s insane.

    Assume you’ll yield $1m for it in 15 years.

  61. The Great Pumpkin says:

    If you are really sitting on 500k, transfer that money to an account and buy stocks. Buying at these prices and holding for the long term is pretty low risk.

    If you want to get your hands dirty, then purchase rental properties. With 500k, you can produce significant passive income from that 500k. You leverage that and get a 2 million dollar property/properties that produces 200k a year.

    Either choice, you are in good hands.

  62. The Great Pumpkin says:

    With 500k cash, how could you ever be worried about money in retirement? The amount you can produce by investing that now is so easy to retire on. Like I said, go that real estate route and you will never have to worry about money in retirement….your properties will prob by producing 300k a year by the time you retire. Plus, you can liquidate, throw it in some reit, and live off the dividend in retirement if you no longer want to manage rentals.

  63. Juice Box says:

    Looks like I called this one correctly. Pelosi and Chucky lost another one the House just approved by a vote of 217-185 the $5 Billion for the wall, Senate expected to approve tomorrow.

  64. Juice Box says:

    Wall go fund me now up to 9 million.

    https://www.gofundme.com/TheTrumpWall

  65. ExEssex says:

    I told you Trump would tank the economy.

  66. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    gary – Makes no matter where, still FDIC insured. You can even buy in your brokerage accounts. I bought $280K in 2.75% 1 year CDs two days ago. The nice thing about brokered CDs (the kind you can buy in a brokerage account) is that they are liquid. If CD rates drop you can sell them at a profit before maturity. I manage close to $2 million in these types of CDs for myself and family members. Make sure you keep deposits in any one institution at the FDIC limit of $250K per deposit per institution (across all accounts). For example, a single depositor with $250K CD exposure to bank XYZ in one account should not add another $25K in different account from the same bank.

    Thinking about a 12 -month to 15-month CD. Should I wait a little longer to see if I get more rate? Any suggestions on who has the best rates for this time period? I did a search but may have missed something. I also prefer a brick and mortar place where I can walk into and face someone or does it matter? Thoughts?

  67. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    I was just off by 6 months, and had the wrong election. I even predicted your words ExSex.

    The Original NJ ExPat says:

    January 22, 2018 at 2:59 pm
    ****Disclosure: Sheer conjecture on my part*****

    1. The US stock market will “correct”, as they say from maybe April until August or so.
    2. Dems will tout the end of the “Trump Economic Lie” during this period.
    3. The US stock market will turn back up in late August or early September.
    4. Dems get crushed in the mid-terms.
    5. More protests and violence isolated to cities that still want Hillary.

    I told you Trump would tank the economy.

  68. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Pumps Half in a highway house in an undesirable neighborhood in an ice cold market and half invested in pancake in a can?

    With 500k cash, how could you ever be worried about money in retirement? The amount you can produce by investing that now is so easy to retire on.

  69. chicagofinance says:

    You can buy annuties with withdrawal guarantees or backstops. Don’t go through a broker to do it. Find vanilla stuff direct. Not all or nothing. There is no harm in taking a strip of $100,000 and allocating it to something other than bank CD’s. Also you should be able to start finding CD’s approaching 3% at this point with lock-ups as short as 6 months.

    Don’t get caught up in what happened 10 years ago.

    Also, Trump’s administration is about to go through some real rough times. If the market goes down another 10-15% from here, the risk is REALLY LOW. You have to put some of that money to work. The downside will be negligible at that point.

    Ninja Warrior says:
    December 20, 2018 at 4:55 pm
    No One:
    I expect to remain in the house for another 15 to 20 years, then cash out. Probably close to $2M cash by then, but who knows.

    Obviously I’m very risk averse, and between Moodys rating garbage as “AAA”, market declines, automated trading, giant banks buying and selling millions of shares to move the market, I’m not a big fan of the market.

    Just wanted feedback, as I’m not sure how to gauge “how I’m doing” because it seems no one is in the same boat. House sold today, plus cash, is about $1M, so maybe $2M in 20 years, if not dead, then maybe go to Florida and start a small business (deli or something).

  70. chicagofinance says:

    Put as much as you can into Roth IRA’s……

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