Maybe they’ll just stay in Manhattan?

From Bloomberg:

Manhattan home prices fall under $1 million as sellers cut deals

Manhattan home prices fell in the fourth quarter, with the median slipping to less than $1 million for the first time in three years. Ample inventory continued to allow buyers to demand sweeter deals.

Condo and co-op prices declined to $999,000 in the three months through December, a drop of 5.8% from a year earlier, appraiser Miller Samuel Inc. and brokerage Douglas Elliman Real Estate said in a report Thursday. Many apartments were sold for less than sellers originally sought, with an average discount of 6.2% from the last list price. That’s up from price cuts of 5.4% a year earlier.

It was the first time the median was less than $1 million since the third quarter of 2015, when it was $998,000.

The price decline is largely the result of shoppers having options. The inventory of existing homes on the market was up 17% from a year earlier. That’s given buyers greater negotiating power, and left sellers with no choice but to cut overly optimistic listing prices if they want to move properties.

This entry was posted in Demographics, Economics, NYC, Price Reduced. Bookmark the permalink.

104 Responses to Maybe they’ll just stay in Manhattan?

  1. The Original NJ ExPat says:


  2. grim says:

    Why are people worrying about a China slowdown?

    Isn’t that exactly the point?

    Looks like the mid-term trend is for electronics manufacturing to shift away from China to other Asian markets.

    I know lots of folks in manufacturing. When the little guys start talking about working with new suppliers in Vietnam, it means there will be little to no new growth of that sector of manufacturing in China. The little guys are all fed up with China, and in love with the new players. Old suppliers f*cking over small and mid sided American players, larger minimums, more rework, longer lead times, lower quality, unauthorized substitutions, etc etc etc. China getting a taste of its own medicine. I giggle a little bit when I hear Chinese trade folks talking about TCO in defense of manufacturing costs up 100% in just a few years. Yes, yes, it’s a little bit more expensive, but look at the big picture!!! Right, it doesn’t work that way. Just wait until India learns to solder.

  3. Yo! says:

    New York City and suburbs are a real estate bargain compared to San Francisco and Bay Area. As tech hiring ramps in New York City, should put a floor on real estate values. Too bad these tech jobs are flowing into New York City, not NJ.

    Would be nice if Walmart consolidates its e-commerce activity around Jet in Hoboken. Walmart is going all in on e-commerce and can afford to spend big for years. That would be thousands of $100,000+ jobs.

  4. D-FENS says:

    India would be a better trading partner. I do hope Chinese manufacturing decreases and India picks up the slack.

  5. GdBlsU45 says:

    AAPL only has itself(execs) to blame for its problems in China. What did they rhink was going to happen once China stole the manufacturing know how? Undercut them of course which is the biggest problem. AAPL has only 8% of the smartphone market there. The same thing will happen to Boeing in a few years. At least the chip makers have been smart enough to keep their advanced manufacturing out of China for now

  6. D-FENS says:

    Why would anyone ever think a communist would give a sh1t about intellectual property rights?

  7. GdBlsU45 says:

    Lol. Metoo biting Murphy and Bernie in the as$. As was said previously, the witch trials eventually ended when they turned on themselves.

    And what else does the dnc stand for at the moment but open borders and anti trump? Anything constructive from them or just soci@lism and identity politics?

  8. GdBlsU45 says:

    The answer is they don’t care. Short term profits are the only thing Wall Street and by extension corporate execs care about.

  9. Fast Eddie says:

    The same thing will happen to Boeing in a few years.

    I really hope not. Otherwise, f.uck Apple and f.uck Starbucks.

  10. 1987 Condo says:

    Jobs 312k!!

  11. Grim says:


  12. Fast Eddie says:


    Liberals have makeup streaks on their cheeks.

  13. GdBlsU45 says:

    No, they will more than likely start talking about the Russia hoax or stormy Daniels because they have nothing else.


  14. Libturd...look me up in Costa Rica says:

    We still understand white privilege. Not sure how that will help us, but it’s all ours!

    And Pelosi’s back too. That’s like Cinci rehiring Marvin Lewis in 2020.

  15. Juice Box says:

    As I predicted Pelosi does not understand Trump. I doubt little legislation passed from here on in will get signed by him. This is going to escalate.

  16. Libturd...look me up in Costa Rica says:

    I expect nothing but toothless investigations for the upcoming two years.

  17. Juice Box says:

    First day of Congress.

    Let’s see what they are up too.

    Legislation so far
    1) Candidates need to turn over tax returns
    2) Elimination of Electoral College
    3) impeachment articles
    4) Open Government no wall funding.

    Seems TDS is not getting cured anytime soon. As I have stated the DEMS need not rise
    above their blind hatred.

  18. chicagofinance says:

    I heard several people state that NYC will eventually take over tech from SF. SF is fine, but NYC is the true international city. When GOOGL, FB, AAPL, AMZN want to take their businesses to the next level, you have to go to NYC. You can interact with your own staff, get legal, investment banking, banking, media and international players all in a couple of days. What is that bullsh!t song from A Chorus Line that the ginzo from Hoboken used to sing?

    Yo! says:
    January 4, 2019 at 7:44 am
    New York City and suburbs are a real estate bargain compared to San Francisco and Bay Area. As tech hiring ramps in New York City, should put a floor on real estate values. Too bad these tech jobs are flowing into New York City, not NJ.

    Would be nice if Walmart consolidates its e-commerce activity around Jet in Hoboken. Walmart is going all in on e-commerce and can afford to spend big for years. That would be thousands of $100,000+ jobs.

  19. Libturd...look me up in Costa Rica says:

    I’m hoping the government stays shutdown indefinitely. It shows you how little they are actually needed.

  20. Grim says:

    I like that the Republicans proposed term limits.

  21. GdBlsU45 says:

    The DNC agenda has been turned over to radicals. Been that way for a few years. If you believe in free speech, biology or sovereignty and mainstream religion you are increasingly less welcome. Still a lot of people ignorant to that fact. It will take several more election cycles for them to get the memo.

  22. grim says:

    Let me say I spent a month working in and with the Walmart SF “Innovation” campus. I don’t usually talk shop here, but…

    They were largely worthless, it was entirely made up of people who could talk, but not do, they were rejects from everywhere else. Full of themselves with their prestigious bay area tech jobs, but they had no clue why they had them. They couldn’t attract talent, the name makes it impossible in the bay area.

    It would be in Walmart’s best interest if they closed, nice experiment, didn’t work out. A bunch of pretentious third-rate ivy leaguers with no real experience thinking they knew exactly what Middle America consumers wanted. It put Walmart ecom behind by a decade.

    Sorry. The most active time of day was when everyone walked across the parking lot to the food trucks, which were always awesome, other than that nothing got done there. Bentonville was always the sharp, smart cookies, every time. Solid solid operators, always focused on the ops and the numbers. Zero cultural compatibility.

  23. ExEssex says:

    A leader like Trump needs checks and balances. Period.

  24. Juice Box says:

    Video clip went viral of newly elected Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.) saying Democrats should “impeach the motherf—–” at an event hosted by the advocacy group at a bar near the Capitol.


  25. Fast Eddie says:

    Our fathers would look at the current version of democrats with utter disgust. They’re a party of veritable misfits, freaks, oddballs and outcasts.

  26. Juice Box says:

    GRIM – Walmart SF ” they were rejects from everywhere else”

    Hense the purchase two years ago…

    However is there any real “Walmart innovation” coming from Marc Lore’s crew out of Hoboken and the older crew out of “gulp” Bentonville.

  27. ExEssex says:

    9:52 I am pretty sure they’d look at Trump and puke all over themselves wondering how a man of little character, terrible track record, and obvious mental illness found his way to hold the office.

  28. ExEssex says:

    Oh the founders would be soooo impressed:

    It was only three months ago that the New York Times published a dramatic exposé upending the entire Trump financial mythos. Trump had always insisted he had received “just” a $1 million loan from his father as a young man, which he repaid. Before the Times’ story came out, his critics used to express doubt that Trump had actually ever paid back the million dollars. In fact, the Times established that Trump has received $413 million from his father, all in gifts rather than loans, and the vast bulk of it transferred illegally, to avoid estate and gift tax.

    What’s more, the story reconstructs how Fred Trump carefully manufactured his son’s image. The family presented its young heir to the media as an already-accomplished young millionaire of his own. The key vehicle for the publicity campaign was the Times itself. In 1976, a reporter toured Trump’s properties alongside him in a chauffeured Cadillac and dutifully fawned over the “tall, lean and blond” developer, who had amassed more than $200 million at the tender age of 30. The Times now debunks its own story. It reports that all the properties depicted in the story as Donald’s burgeoning empire — even the Cadillac they rode around in — were actually purchased by Fred Trump.

  29. Juice Box says:

    One thing to remember about the Bay Area, it’s always been that way. The tech people there have created a reality of what is well spoofed in HBO’s Silicon Valley a show created by Mike Judge who drew on his own experiences from a startup in the late 1980s where he worked as a programmer.

    Another comment from Elon Musk. “You could take the craziest L.A. party and multiply it by a thousand, and it doesn’t even get close to what’s in Silicon Valley.”

    Right now I have one Silicon Valley nerd from a startup we purchased who was dumped onto my team. I spent the last year giving this person a chance. No work product for nearly a year. Does not show up to meetings online over the phone, does not fill out the paperwork required (yes when you work in IT you need to be a paper pusher too) does not have enthusiasm for the job etc. Constantly berates our tech since this person is an open source purist etc… We should send him to Pakistan to run the next project…

  30. GdBlsU45 says:

    Trump has always been the reaction to and not the cause of current dysfunction. One whiff of political correctness and they would understand in an instant.

  31. Juice Box says:

    ExEssex – History Rhymes just like in 1992, the voters just did not care.

  32. chicagofinance says:

    The fcuking stock market is driving me nutz!

  33. JCer says:

    Juice, he’s berating your “tech” because it probably sucks, most is passable at best. The big question is your org preventing this person from “getting it done” or is he really worthless. Paper work is stupid, as are most “meetings”, most tech people have disdain for it. Non-tech companies need to realize this if they want to attract the talent.

    Given greenfield development can this person make it work? I know a lot of technologists who fit the mold of what you’re describing but if you ask them to solve a problem or build something they are 3-10x more productive than the average developer.

  34. Juice Box says:

    Fed trotted out a few people today. Squawk had Fed. President Loretta Mester this morning and now Powell. I gather they don’t want to hear from Trump that they are fired.

  35. Juice Box says:

    JCer – This is a non-programming role, this person was moved from programming for the same reason work product sucked. To Grim’s point walk the walk….

    As far as “passable at best” we run enterprise and open like all big boys do. Right now we are in bed with GCP, Oracle, MS, and Open, our new front end is all React. Heck there is even some IBM on it’s last legs here too.

  36. D-FENS says:

    Trump was elected as a giant middle finger to the old political class. No amount of vetting could have stopped it.

    ExEssex says:
    January 4, 2019 at 10:05 am
    Here’s why, Trump was never vetted:

  37. Juice Box says:

    I mentioned Pakistan earlier for a reason as well, India has lost it’s luster in my opinion.,8_IN192_KO9,28.htm

  38. D-FENS says:

    It didn’t get much press.

    3m3 minutes ago
    For too long, members of Congress have abused their power and ignored the will of the American people.

    Term limits on members of Congress offer a solution to the brokenness we see in Washington. It’s long past time for Congress to hold itself accountable:

    Grim says:
    January 4, 2019 at 9:35 am
    I like that the Republicans proposed term limits.

  39. JCer says:

    Juice, the technology it’s built on doesn’t make it make it quality or well implemented. We have all kinds of things build on React, modern tech stacks, modern middleware platforms, totally decent architectures but it does mean the product quality isn’t a steaming pile of sh*t, built by people who don’t understand the architecture and as such it is totally fragile and not constructed in a maintainable fashion. My employer likes to hire high end tech people and architects and then have the lowest common denominator implement the solutions…..not ideal, we then have to go in and make it work.

    In a non-programming role it sounds like you need to cut this guy lose. Sometimes these guys are like this because they have a clear vision of how something should be built and the people implementing it are wandering in the dark and can’t understand it, hence when everything is built incorrectly it’s cr*p.

  40. Juice Box says:

    “quality ” ” well implemented” ” totally fragile ” “when everything is built incorrectly”

    “product quality isn’t a steaming pile of sh*t”

    It’s all just a matter of time. Everything in tech becomes obsolete, unmanageable, fragile and built incorrectly and finally a steaming pile of sh*t.

    Architected by the competent and built by the incompetent is the way it always has been and will be.

  41. Libturd...look me up in Costa Rica says:


    I’m beginning to think that this inexplicable market is due to little more than poorly road-tested HFT algorithms that sought out higher volatility which was sorely lacking for such a long time period. The VIX jumped so high, so quickly, that these algorithms are creating too much additional volatility.

    Of course, this is my completely maniacal guess.

  42. texting says:

    Is this the joke of the decade??. i can understand India losing its luster thing, but really the neighboring country.. Watch them defaulting in the next 2 years..

    Juice Box says:
    January 4, 2019 at 11:09 am
    I mentioned Pakistan earlier for a reason as well, India has lost it’s luster in my opinion.,8_IN192_KO9,28.htm

  43. Libturd...look me up in Costa Rica says:

    Juice. Couldn’t agree more about your quality comments. We have a very specialized piece of software. It’s not enterprise, but unique to print manufacturing. In short, it allows us to strategically create the smartest impositions to print books based on web configurations, paper types, color requirements, binding types, etc. Kodak owned the industry standard product which was both Apple and Java scriptable allowing savvy users to create their own automation for their product. Then, they decided that $1,000 per year per seat was a bad revenue model as printing (as an industry) is in decline. So they removed all of scriptability and forced everyone who was currently using it to purchase their 250K all encompassing (ultrabloated and mainly a giant turd) Prinergy product which incorporates a scriptable version of imposition. We have continued to use their now ten year old version that was scriptable, but the older MAC CPUs that it can still run on are getting harder and harder to find. Plus they are simply slow as sh1t for everything else and doesn’t meet our security compliance needs.

    We recently moved over to a 10K product which is slowly picking up speed as the new imposition standard in the industry. It is completely scriptable and relatively good for basic needs. But when you try to get it to handle more intricate issues. It is completely broken. Every time we ask them to fix one of these bugs, something else major breaks. It’s truely one step forward results in two steps back. We are now on our third developer from the company that provided the software. It appears the software was programmed like a jenga-stack of workarounds. The product expert on my team is now at the point where we are no longer paying for their support and we’ll use other automation tools to create workarounds for their products short-comings. I’ve never seen anything quite like this before. It got to the point where I told their head of development that they should be paying us not only for all of the bugs we are finding, but for the fixes as well. He wasn’t laughing.

  44. JCer says:

    Pakistan, India, et al kind of suck for software development, too much demand and not enough talent. There are too many people in technology there who have no business in it, they are there because there are paying middle class jobs, they have no affinity or aptitude for the work. Additionally the education system over there is a joke, too many diploma mills. That’s not to say there aren’t some quality people, it’s just very sparse and the drop off in productivity and competence is massive. I have like 40 people over there and maybe 5 are good, 5-10 are passable and 25-30 are pure filler.

  45. Trick says:

    Lib, sounds like any print software I have seen in the past. Slap it together then let the end users figure-out the bugs. I moved out of the commercial printing years ago, now I’m stuck in print and mail

  46. JCer says:

    Juice what you are seeing is poorly implemented software. I assure you your OS is not built that way and when my dev team was US based, with highly paid experienced people who were diligent, I took over the legacy product and was able to understand their code and work on it right away. When I look at what was done in India on the next gen system I cannot figure what end is up. Tech becomes obsolete or isn’t built with the architecture of the day but quality software can be built, running, maintained, and updated throughout a life cycle that spans multiple decades.

    Lib, I describe my product which is SaS where my average customer pays 1.5m per year for the software as a work around to the fix script and a fix script to the work around. It is the Jenga situation you describe exactly for the main reason that the implementation is sloppy and the code is not structured to align with all of the data hence breaking one thing by fixing another.

    From Kodak’s perspective i can imagine the business model is bad given the cost of maintaining software and the shrinking market.

  47. chicagofinance says:

    Strange dichotomy……. machine are much quicker, but humans ability to react to changing conditions and use wisdom and experience is more effective

    central banks are pulling back and the machines need to be reprogrammed……..

    Libturd…look me up in Costa Rica says:
    January 4, 2019 at 11:29 am

    I’m beginning to think that this inexplicable market is due to little more than poorly road-tested HFT algorithms that sought out higher volatility which was sorely lacking for such a long time period. The VIX jumped so high, so quickly, that these algorithms are creating too much additional volatility.

    Of course, this is my completely maniacal guess.

  48. chicagofinance says:

    WTF is this?

  49. 1987 Condo says:

    WTF–I think market realizes there is no imminent recession and the Fed will not just keep hiking rates……..need to retrace to level prior to December kookiness?

  50. Fast Eddie says:

    I think market realizes there is no imminent recession…

    For this fiscal year, I just got a 3% raise and 100% funded bonus. The onslaught by the fake, cunt, weak media is relentless all because g@y sex, binary, gender-less ideology and free everything is not the mantra for this administration. Any job one desires is to be had and investments in equities AND now fixed assets is available. If you’re a male and you vote dem, you might as well sport a pink vagin.a hat as well.

  51. D-FENS says:

    21h21 hours ago
    The #116thCongress has SO much to be proud of:

    ✅1st Somali-American + Refugee
    ✅1st Muslim women (@RashidaTlaib & I)
    ✅1st Indigenous women
    ✅1st Palestinian-American
    ✅Youngest (28) @AOC
    ✅Record 100+ women
    ✅Largest ever Black (55), Hispanic (37), & Progressive (98) caucuses

    1,352 replies 8,709 retweets 41,210 likes
    Reply 1.4K Retweet 8.7K Like 41K

    Justin Amash

    Verified account

    Follow Follow @justinamash
    Replying to @IlhanMN
    My father is Palestinian, and I’ve been in Congress since 2011.

  52. Juice Box says:

    JCer – I am in agreement with the offshoring, but the reality is what it is. We are working on a AR “augmented reality” project built in ARKit 2.

    Just try and find people here onshore at any price that aren’t what Grim describes as “who could talk, but not do”.

    Anecdotal: Some of the best developers I have ever worked with were kids and dropouts.

  53. Fast Eddie says:

    Less than a day after being sworn in as the youngest woman ever elected to Congress, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., appears ready to push an ambitious plan to combat climate change.

    In an interview with Anderson Cooper scheduled for broadcast on CBS’ “60 Minutes” Sunday, Ocasio-Cortez suggested implementing an income tax rate of up to 70 percent on wealthy Americans to pay for the so-called Green New Deal, a program to move the country toward zero carbon emissions.

    “People are going to have to start paying their fair share in taxes,” the 29-year-old said. “You look at our tax rates back in the ’60s and when you have a progressive tax rate system your tax rate, you know, let’s say, from zero to $75,000, maybe 10 percent or 15 percent, etc. But once you get to, like, the tippy tops — on your 10-millionth dollar — sometimes you see tax rates as high as 60 or 70 percent.

    Any questions?

  54. Juice Box says:

    DFENS – Now Senator John E. Sununu became a congressman in 1997, he is the son of the guy who served under Regan as White House Chief of Staff and they both have Palestinan heritage.

    If we go back far enough we can probably find someone related in the 1800s too. But hey the media does not have fact checkers anymore.

  55. 3b says:

    Tippy topped! There you go people! That’s the intellectual discourse right there!

  56. Bystander says:

    If she was 60 lbs heavier, no one would listen to a word she says. She is cute, feisty little tamale with ideas that will go nowhere. Media (and even conservatives) can’t take eyes off here.

  57. 3b says:

    Stock market drops FB is Screaming it’s Trumps fault!! Stock market goes up its crickets! Just saying!

  58. Libturd...look me up in Costa Rica says:

    I don’t even know who she is? I looked her up. I think she thinks she’s still in the Student Government Association.

  59. Libturd...look me up in Costa Rica says:

    Do they ever put the brakes on a stock exchange that is moving up too quickly?

  60. grim says:

    Ocasio-Cortez suggested implementing an income tax rate of up to 70 percent on wealthy Americans to pay for the so-called Green New Deal, a program to move the country toward zero carbon emissions.

    I’m all for complete US energy independence, but you need to have a diversified energy portfolio, and the US does not manufacture green technology at any scale.

    Love the idea of solar panels and windmills on every roof, but lets make those here, not from China, who is going to burn coal to make that solar panel, completely negating the entire point of them.

  61. Libturd...look me up in Costa Rica says:

    I think we should put solar panels on her horse teeth.

  62. JCer says:

    Juice, I know how hard it is to find real technical talent(especially in NYC area), as you state the young are a good bet and the drop outs as well because they are obtainable. Otherwise real technology people are largely absorbed by the big tech companies and without massive over payment only want to work on interesting stuff. Also talking the talk is the problem, most really good developers don’t talk, if a developer is a good talker there is a good chance they are full of it, many are extremely awkward.

    Prior to doing what I have been doing for the last 4 years(I manage a dev team and a really poor quality product) I was a developer/architect. My prior job I was apparently the 40th person they interviewed and at the place prior I was the 60th person, my current position I was offered out of the blue with no interview and they basically pestered me into taking the job. I’m not the best employee, I’ll make a lot of demands and will prioritize my personal life over work without reservation but I make problems go away. It’s good and bad no one ever comes back to me to fix my systems or code me or my teams have written, my stuff just runs happily. I sometimes get calls from former coworkers and the fact that my code just runs and now years later they need to make changes to it. I know people who do nothing but fix broken systems, working 100% remote billing hourly and working on their schedule when they feel like it and bill in excess of 100k per year despite not being anything like an employee literally they have an open deal with a client to fix things and bill them on an hourly basis. For something like this to exist it tells me real tech expertise is tough to find that people will put up with the uncertainty of this type of developer.

    Part of the problem is a hiring problem, you cannot hire a team of all rockstar developers. You need to develop talent and spread out the people who basically think in code, too many people like that on one team can be disastrous as they will all be trying to drive what the implementation will be and will but heads. Hiring a rockstar is also very hard, it’s better to develop them and the best way is to build technical talent by hiring young smart people and trying to develop them. Technical talent is an asset, accumulating and maintaining your technical prowess requires time, money, and proactive management most organizations don’t realize it and let the talent walk right out the door.

    I’m not against offshoring, hire the talent where ever it exists and wants to be. Biggest thing is teams need people who fulfill certain roles, people who very diligently write and document mundane and reliable code, creative people who come up with solutions and designs, etc. The mundane reliable coders are easier to find and cheaper but still critical, you don’t have the right people you won’t get the result. Building a technology team isn’t easy there is a reason the big tech companies will acquire a company to get their “talent”……….

  63. JCer says:

    Fast eddie, she’s naive and also has no concept of the math…

  64. grim says:

    New Deal worked because people had a work ethic at that time.

    Not so sure the New Deal would work today.

    Entitled brats aren’t going to take subsistence jobs building public works projects.

  65. Fast Eddie says:

    … naive and also has no concept of the math…

    A perfect representation of the democrat party.

  66. 3b says:

    She also comes across as arrogant.

  67. ExEssex says:

    It’s infuriating to see someone pushing Stalin’s ideas. Wtf is it with her district? Oh yeah she’s cuteish and not an incumbent.

  68. Bystander says:


    I guess Sinema is more your type. She is interesting. Tries real hard to look good. Swings both ways too.

  69. 3b says:

    That was one joking looking outfit she wore for her swearing in ceremony.

  70. Juice Box says:

    Today Trump, during his press conference, also threatened to keep about 25 percent of the federal government closed for years until he gets his desired funding for the wall.

    Pelosi and Schumer are going to lose this one.

  71. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    That Tlaib cunt must come from a shithole country.

  72. Provocateur says:

    I’m curious of what is required to be an “openly bi” senator. Does it mean you bring your boyfriend and girlfriend to the swearing in ceremony? Does it mean filming threeways? How do I know she’s just not vacillating between hetero and homo rather than being really bi?

  73. leftwing says:

    Random thoughts from today’s posts….

    Tech, NY v Bay Area….NY is a long way away from being truly competitive with the Bay Area let alone overtaking it. The talent and the entire support system is out on the west coast. No major firm has their best tech bankers/lawyers in NY. They are out there. No junior rock star tech banker or lawyer wants to be in NY, they want to be where the action is. Most importantly, the smart angel/first round capital is there and firmly networked supporting all that raw talent. Until and unless the Sand Hill Road ecosystem is broken (or eventually replicated here) the locus of top tech and especially cutting edge tech will be there. AAPL, AMZN, and FB while major employers of highly skilled and highly compensated individuals they are becoming the IBM and HP of their time.

    Markets…what’s not to love?! This is GREAT lol. HFT certainly has a role in vol and compressing responses to events, however, if one believes we are in a bear market your sharpest up bounces occur in bear markets. And recall most bear markets are down 21-50%. We barely tapped 20%. Cut those durations and buckle up buttercups.

  74. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Still on pace for the “roaring 20’s 2.0”… stand by what I said a month ago, stock market drop was a head fake by the big boys. They tried, but economy too strong for their bs. Take your gloom and be gone with it until it’s actually warranted sometime in the second half of next decade.

    “Stocks opened sharply higher after data showed a spike in hiring last month that was accompanied by faster wage growth and an increase in participation, abruptly tamping down concern that a recession was growing likely. Stocks surged to session highs after Jerome Powell said Fed policy is flexible and officials are “listening carefully” to the financial markets. Futures had advanced overnight on news the U.S. and China will hold trade talks next week.”

  75. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Lefty hates this area, unable to see NYC for the powerhouse it is. It will own the tech sector again, it’s only a matter of time. If you are serious about business, nyc is the only place to do it. NYC is the OG, don’t even try to beat it.

  76. The Great Pumpkin says:

    ESP with nyc being supplied with all these up and coming tech hubs. North jersey will certainly be one of them. Newark is already on its way as is queens.

  77. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Silicone valley will still run the west coast, but the future big boys will be right here in the nyc.

  78. The Great Pumpkin says:

    This is one thing conservatives need to accept. It’s better for business long term when you aren’t paying slave wages. You have to have a balance between profit and labor. Take too much either side and it’s bad for everyone.

    “When Seattle increased its minimum wage to $15 an hour, the right wing called it an “economic death wish” that would cause unemployment to skyrocket and restaurants to shut down. Instead, the exact opposite happened. The reality is that increasing the minimum wage puts money in the pockets of workers who spend it in grocery stores, restaurants, movie theaters, and businesses all over America. Poverty will be reduced, new jobs will be created and employee turnover will go down if we raise the minimum wage to $15 an hour.”

    “The dire warnings about minimum-wage increases keep proving to be wrong. So much so that in a new paper, the authors behind an earlier study predicting a negative impact have all but recanted their initial conclusions. However, the authors still seem perplexed about why they went awry in the first place.”

  79. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “There were two other glaring defects in the first study that are worth mentioning. The first is that its findings contradicted the vast majority research on minimum wages. As was demonstrated back in 1994 by economists Alan Krueger and David Card, modest, gradual wage increases have not been shown to reduce employment or hours worked in any significant way. Ignoring that body of research without a very good reason made the initial University of Washington study questionable at best.

    Second, there potentially is a problem with having a lead researcher — economist Jacob Vigdor, whose affiliations among others include the right-leaning Manhattan Institute — whose impartiality is open to question. I don’t wish to suggest people cannot have opinions, but researchers need to be open-minded. This especially true in fields like economics and public policy, where belief systems and political affiliations can have an outsized impact on objectivity.”

  80. The Great Pumpkin says:

    The experiment has been conducted, now accept the results.

    How many times did expat and lefty call me an idiot for taking the position a 15 dollar min wage was good for the economy. Who’s laughing now.

  81. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Pumps – every day you show yourself up to be a know-even-less-than-yesterday douchetard. OK, Mr. roaring 20’s (I thought you would name yourself roaring 40’s, to match the minimum speed on your street):

    1. When will the S&P 500 rise to the level it started 2018? (Do you even know what the S&P 500 is, or what level it was at 1/2/18?)
    2. When will the S&P 500 reach a new all-time high?

    Oh Stupid Uneducated Polish one…Please, oh please, make two more of your great calls!


    Still on pace for the “roaring 20’s 2.0”… stand by what I said a month ago, stock market drop was a head fake by the big boys. They tried, but economy too strong for their bs. Take your gloom and be gone with it until it’s actually warranted sometime in the second half of next decade.

  82. The Great Pumpkin says:


    How that min wage call work out? Add another call to my list.

    You have no idea how good it feels to prove someone wrong after they call you an idiot. God, it feels good.

  83. texting says:

    Roaring 1/2020…

  84. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Am I supposed to know what you are talking about? Does anyone? Please provide the details.

    As for your stock market calls, my guess is no balls? Or maybe constipated with too much pancake in the “can”?



    How that min wage call work out? Add another call to my list.

    You have no idea how good it feels to prove someone wrong after they call you an idiot. God, it feels good.

  85. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    ^^^^ FYI, if you do your research you’ll find that nobody calls you an idiot more times than yourself (and probably, your father).

  86. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Typical communique from Pumps dad to him:

    “Hey idiot, deposit more money to my prison commissary account.”

  87. The Great Pumpkin says:


    Are you kidding me? We had debates for months on the raising of the min wage. I was the only one that took the position that the min wage had been held down for too long and needed to be raised to bring back balance between profit and labor, which is ultimately reflective of investment and consumption in the economy. There’s a very thin line between the two and balance should be the objective. Not for profit or labor to beat one or the other down. They both have an important role in the economy. You don’t want the balance swaying too far to either side. For example, raising the min wage to 50 dollars would hurt the economy long term because you would leave profit without the ability to invest and grow the economy. You will have a ton of demand, but investment dollars unable to meet it, the result…hyper inflation.

  88. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Call me what you want, but I think I was born with a gift when it comes to understanding the economy. I don’t really know anyone that made the calls that I did. Maybe I’m forest gump just stumbling onto these calls…time will tell. If Roaring 20’s 2.0 happens, then please understand I’m making calls I can’t even believe. Hard enough to call 5 years in advance, but 10 years is insane. I hope this blog lasts till then…. If I’m wrong, I’ll be ready for the put downs. If I’m right, I hope you don’t ignore the amazing call. No one is calling for this but me.

  89. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    The gift of delusion, fashioned as a defense mechanism to the criminal household you were born into.

    Call me what you want, but I think I was born with a gift

  90. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Still don’t know what you’re talking about. Put it in plain numbers and dates so I can decide. You’ve already commented on the stock market, but no numbers, no dates. Start simple, the S&P 500 hits a new high when? If you can’t say, you have no call, but then again, you never have…except in your own little mindski.

    No one is calling for this but me.

  91. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “Amer­i­cans needed some re­as­sur-ing eco­nomic news, and on Fri­day they re­ceived a dou­ble dose: First, a blowout jobs re­port for De­cem-ber, fol­lowed by a tacit ad­mis­sion by Chair­man Jerome Pow­ell that he had messed up at his De­cem­ber press con­fer­ence by sug­gest­ing the Fed­eral Re­serve is on “auto-pi­lot” on its tight­en­ing course.”

    “All of this suggests the U.S. economy is poised to keep growing in 2019, despite slower growth around the world. The Fed aside, the key policy variable is trade. Businesses are waiting on investments as they see how Mr. Trump’s multifront tariff spree plays out. If the President strikes a deal with China, removes his car-tariff threat, and doesn’t blow up Nafta, the uncertainty would ebb and good times could continue to roll.”

  92. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Look at that wage inflation. When I was making these calls back in 2013, this was unthinkable. The Great Pumpkin is coming.

    “The trend is spread­ing even to tra­di­tion­ally lower-paid cor­ners of the econ­omy. Wages in re­tail trades are up 4.6% for the year and 5.5% for the last three months. Leisure and hos­pi­tal­ity wages for pro­duc­tion-level work­ers rose 4.3% for the year and 5.1% in the last quar­ter. If this keeps up, Sen­a­tor Eliz­a­beth War­ren will have to re­tool her 2020 cam­paign mes­sage that the mid­dle class is van­ish­ing.”

  93. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Just remember, we are currently in the early part of the cycle where the economy is just getting its legs back. The hole shot is about to let lose. When you see actual inflation, that’s when this baby gets on the gas full throttle. Can’t wait for this.

  94. Juice Box says:

    Pumps – One shiny happy weekend in Wayne, when they come by your street and the unsolicited hopeful future home owner knocks on at YOUR FRONT DOOR and then makes an offer to exhale on a mirror of the loan application will YOU call TOPS?

  95. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Pumps must be working on his back flexibility, because he seems to be trying to blow himself.

  96. ExEssex says:

    The Great Pumpkin is Cummming.

  97. The Original NJ ExPat says:


  98. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    BTW, here’s what a Pumpkin call NEVER looks like:

    The S&P 500 will climb to 2593.36 this week and then drastically reverse.

  99. 3b says:

    Juice the hordes of tech people that are going to be in NYC will pay cash for a house in Wayne.

  100. chicagofinance says:

    I agree that this situation has all the hallmarks of a bear market. I just can’t wrap my head around that one yet……. BTW – the reason I recused myself about making 2019 calls is that it is the first time in a very long time that I have no fcukin clue, and I wouldn’t insult everyone by throwing out a wild stab….. at this point we are very outcome oriented with discrete destinations. That said, assigning probabilities is a fool’s errand. Even if someone gave the conclusions to variable situations, I wouldn’t be sure how the market would react……. the only thing I instinctively feel is P/E compression is on the table for 2019.

    I was at Baker yesterday Section 119. Can’t say it was a good game, but happy to see the Red in action again. Fcukin weird….. no penalties?

    leftwing says:
    January 4, 2019 at 6:31 pm
    however, if one believes we are in a bear market your sharpest up bounces occur in bear markets. And recall most bear markets are down 21-50%. We barely tapped 20%. Cut those durations and buckle up buttercups.

  101. chicagofinance says:

    Holy sh!t they tied Quinnapiac 2-2!

  102. leftwing says:

    just got back from a wjc party. that hurt.

    saw the red score from last night. sounds like a good game. wasn’t there, last player we knew on the team graduated last year so less urgency in getting down….

    should have another friend’s son on the team next year, played with my kid. lighting up the ushl, he’d come on board as a natural freshman. we’ll see, if so i’ll definitely be down again with a crowd.

  103. leftwing says:

    also nice tie. crazy weekend, union blows out st cloud, michigan state ties osu, michigan beats nd, quinnipiac lost last night as well….first week back, hopefully red can move up

Comments are closed.