So much for the jump in February

From Marketwatch:

Existing-home sales slide nearly 5% in March as the on-again-off-again housing market retreats

Sales of previously-owned homes fell more sharply than expected in March as the usual housing headwinds stalked the market. The surge in February was the strongest in nearly four years, and the Realtor lobby group is attributing the March decline to a return to normalcy after that spike. Still, sales were 5.4% lower than a year ago. 

The median price of a home sold in March was $259,400, a 3.8% increase versus a year ago. At the current pace of sales, it would take 3.9 months to exhaust available supply, still well below the long-time average of 6 months. Properties stayed on the market for an average of 36 days in March, down from 44 days in February but a bit longer than the 30 days averaged last year. 

According to NAR’s measure of first-time buyers, they accounted for 33% of all transactions in March. But more recent comprehensive research – NAR’s is based on survey data – suggests first-time buyers currently make up about the same share of the market that they have for the past two decades. 

Activity was mixed regionally, as always, but all regions saw a decline. In the Northeast, sales were down 2.9%, and in the South they fell 3.4%. In the West, which has suffered for several months, in large part because of the recent tax law changes, sales fell 6%. But the Midwest saw the biggest decline, of 7.9%.

This entry was posted in Demographics, Economics, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

122 Responses to So much for the jump in February

  1. grim says:

    Holy christ deBlasio is an idiot. Modern skyscrapers are perhaps the most energy efficient high density, low impact, living structures that exist today.

    https://news.yahoo.com/york-mayor-targets-classic-skyscrapers-green-deal-195551528.html

    There is more green engineering in a skyscraper than anywhere else, period.

  2. D-FENS says:

    DeBlasio just wants to fine Trump for his buildings. Anyone else will donate to Democratic campaigns and avoid the fines.

  3. Bruiser says:

    Maybe DeBlasio wants to start with the NYCHA housing projects, or the modern-day tenements in the Bronx belching black smoke all winter long. Nahhh, go after Kushner and Trump…azzhole. And the proles in NYC love him.

  4. grim says:

    Energy efficient window design is almost entirely driven by the commercial skyscraper industry right now. Nearly everything having to do with energy efficient coatings is being driven by these guys. Decoupling for energy efficiency, noise reduction, high-wind/storm safety, etc.

  5. KathyCah says:

    Hello, I want to work in your company on a voluntary basis, can you offer me anything?
    a little about me:https://about.me/kurdimova/

  6. Bystander says:

    I would rather politicians focus on why my modern, green, energy efficient building housing two US entities for Euro IBs has fewer American employees everyday. The mix of Indians is astounding, easily 40% of entire building.

  7. 3b says:

    Once those student loans are forgiven the buyers will be coming out of the woodwork!!

  8. Fast Eddie says:

    Bystander,

    I would rather politicians focus on why my modern, green, energy efficient building housing two US entities for Euro IBs has fewer American employees everyday. The mix of Indians is astounding, easily 40% of entire building.

    I agree with this, too. So much. I really do. I’ve been insulated from it for over 5 years now. I’m doing a lot of the same IT related tasks and roles (and more) but my company is such that the specialties call for people with skills the Indian crowd doesn’t bring. If I ever need to go out into the IB/Financial realm proper once again, I’ll be in more of a rage than you. I get it and it kills me.

  9. Bruiser says:

    3b, 8:44am
    Trump should head them off at the pass, and offer to repay all HELOCs. Who wouldn’t guarantee his re-election?

  10. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Nom, good read.

    This passage nails it. Moral right to pre-tax income based on an immoral means of redistribution.

    One guy is massively underpaid, while another is massively overcompensated. Life is not fair, nor will it ever be. Just don’t know how these pigs that land in fortunate positions of compensation in comparison to others, then take the position that the gifted cut should be all theirs and no one else’s. Open your eyes for god’s sake. Stop being so naive and geedy.

    “So if there is a general right to one’s pre-tax income, then it must be a moral right. But it is implausible to suppose that each person has a moral right to his or her pre-tax income, for that would imply that the distribution of pre-tax incomes the market happens to throw up is perfectly just, and this is clearly not the case. There is no justice in the fact that the pre-tax income of a City banker is many hundreds of times the pre-tax income of scientist working on a cure for cancer. This is just an accident of the way our market economy is structured. To hold that each person has a moral right to their pre-tax income would be to hold that the market economy just happens to deliver to each person exactly what they deserve, and this is clearly not the case.”

    https://www.taxjustice.net/2014/10/08/money-taxation-isnt-theft/

  11. grim says:

    Seems like this election will be defined by the candidates who promise to give away the most…

    Who can channel Billy Mays the best?

    But wait, there’s more!

  12. 3b says:

    Bruiser: Great idea!! Pay everything off!! Just send me my check for the tuition room and board that I paid for my kids. That’s all I want. I won’t bill the government for all the incidentals. That’s fair!!

  13. 3b says:

    And if you act right now you will recieve this special one time offer! But hurry money is going fast!! Operators are standing by!!

  14. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Typical argument.

    “Completely inaccurate, and something only an academic could have written.

    I’m going to ignore the first point about the law, as it’s all but circular. Of course, if the law states you must pay x amount of tax above y threshold, you’re legally obliged to pay it.

    The second point is far more interesting – the morality of income. You write “There is no justice in the fact that the pre-tax income of a City banker is many hundreds of times the pre-tax income of scientist working on a cure for cancer. This is just an accident of the way our market economy is structured.” [sic]

    Of course there is. People are paid in proportion to how much revenue they generate – something that leftists/academics will never understand (the later because they generate no revenue and produce nothing of real economic value, and must be paid out of taxation). A banker who is paid £1m/year is WORTH £1m/year, because he brings in many times more than that to his organisation.

    It is not an ‘accident’ of the way our economy is structured that people are paid based on the revenue they generate. It’s simple common sense, and entirely natural. If you want to see what high levels of redistribution do for an economy, plot a graph of government spending as a proportion of GDP vs GDP per capita for any countries you like. You will find that the more redistribution, the lower the GDP per capita.

    This shouldn’t even need explaining after the Soviet Union led to the collapse of half the world’s economies and the greatest mass murders of the twentieth century, but there we are. I guess it’s easy to argue for redistribution when you’re the one dependant on it.”

  15. The Great Pumpkin says:

    What they forget..

    “Nope. A lot of banking involves wealth extraction, not wealth creation. Via risk-taking to bailouts; etc etc etc. So ‘bringing in’ money isn’t the same as creating wealth, from a country’s perspective. He is not worth that much money, except on the narrow perspective of the bank itself. And you will find, if you actually do the research, that the high-tax countries grow just as fast as the low-tax ones – only without the penalties of high inequality, crime, etc.”

  16. Bystander says:

    Ed,

    I wish I could get into fintech but resume probably viewed as bureacratic, banking dinosaur. Honestly I have not had a real job contact in two months, not even LinkedIn. Totally dry. Just got off a call with 40 official rules for hires. Basically, don’t hire in US and if you try expect red tape blockers for rest of year. Don’t have contractors managed through Beeline as we won’t allow more than 900 USD a day which is absolute top for highest tech skill only. We can continue to hire Wipro resources in India or Poland but there are no seats. You are on your own. Either get rid of someone or ask vendor to provide office space. If someone were to wipe last 10 years and throw me into this situation unaware, I would think Dow is at 10k, Europe is burning, markets in turmoil, unemployment at 15%..not kidding. The restrictions are austerity levels.

  17. leftwing says:

    “Trump should head them off at the pass, and offer to repay all HELOCs. Who wouldn’t guarantee his re-election?”

    So what I understand from the Left, including here, is accumulated wealth is economically detrimental because “it just sits there unspent” and debt is economically detrimental because it prohibits expenditure by the masses.

    So…logically doesn’t it flow that…..let’s just elect someone that forgives ALL debt of EVERYBODY and liquidates any individual asset holdings over $1 million in value to the masses?

    We’ll create fcuking Nirvana, won’t we?

  18. leftwing says:

    Re: tax justice article

    What else to expect from the village idiot other than support for an argument that in less than three paragraphs in fact makes no argument and simply relies on repeating twice “it is clearly not the case”.

  19. leftwing says:

    “But it is implausible to suppose that each person has a moral right to his or her pre-tax income, for that would imply that the distribution of pre-tax incomes the market happens to throw up is perfectly just, and this is clearly not the case”

    So let’s deconstruct quickly…

    The market doesn’t just ‘throw up’ pre-tax incomes…the pre-tax income of any job is determined billions of times a day by the ‘votes’ – through purchases – of the entire population.

    What could be more just than every single person in literally the developed world having a daily say in evryone else’s compensation?

    What is the alternative?

    One person determines ‘fair’ compensation for everyone? Who? Warren, Sanders, Powell, Trichet?

    A cabal? Who? The Fed, the ECB, the EU, the Senate, the House?

    Every time you – individually – wave plastic or spend a greenback you are voting on the compensation of the entire chain of production/service you are purchasing.

    What could possibly be more just and democratic than that?

  20. PumpkinFace says:

    It dovetails nicely with his favorite logic: “It’s as simple as that.”

    leftwing says:
    April 23, 2019 at 10:32 am
    Re: tax justice article

    What else to expect from the village idiot other than support for an argument that in less than three paragraphs in fact makes no argument and simply relies on repeating twice “it is clearly not the case”.

  21. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “If I cut someone’s grass for 20 dollars, why is someone else more entitled to some of that money than me?”

    “how did you get to their house to cut their grass? on a road? who paid to lay the tarmac? did any bandits rob you on the way? No? Who paid for the police to stop that kind of stuff? someone’s got to pay for those things. If not the economic operators, then who? Martians?”

  22. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “Apparently, for some people, such as the collectivist writer, it’s a concept that’s impossible to fathom.
    If the person endeavoring to create value isn’t entitled to it, who is?
    If a person’s creative efforts don’t entitle her to control and dispose of her output or compensation for her output, then what does?

    Extortion (the exercise of political power) doesn’t seem to justify any claim on the output of another, that’s the morality of any robber.”

    ““If the person endeavoring to create value isn’t entitled to it, who is?” You simply don’t get the point. Money you earn is only a measure (and very flawed one) of real value you create. Money is not value, money is not wealth. It’s only accounting tool. In fact, there is nothing simpler than earning money from destroying real wealth (devastation of rainforests for example). If you confuse money with value, no wonder you can’t understand why we need taxation. You’re living in the wonderland of circular logic.”

  23. The Great Pumpkin says:

    At the end of the day, the economy is far too complicated to break it down between producers and takers. To say that the biggest accumulators of wealth bring the most value to society is a joke.

    Pablo Escobar created lots of wealth, but what value did he bring? Weapons producer is very wealthy, but what value did they bring? A cas!no owner produces wealth, but what value did he bring and why shouldn’t he be taxed on those earnings? A lawyer that helps his clients avoid crimes or hide money is paid handsomely, but what value did he bring to everyone else? He actually helped an individual hurt everyone else and gets rewarded for it. A doctor or surgeon selling services not needed just to create wealth is a good thing?

    Then we wonder why our future is so fuc!ed….we totally confuse value and money.

    Creating wealth is one thing, creating value is another.

  24. Fast Eddie says:

    PG beats estimates yet the stock drops. Why does that occur? What dynamic causes a stock to drop based on solid earnings?

  25. The Great Pumpkin says:

    And our society is a reflection of what we value. According to some, teachers shouldn’t be paid much because they only produce value, not money, so their pay should reflect it. Our system instead hands out millions per year to someone swinging a bat because this individual helps win games which brings the owner money. So now this non role model baseball player creates no value for society, but is handsomely compensated over the teacher who actually brings “value” to society on the basis he sells tickets aka makes money.

    Just a small example of how much of a negative impact money has on our society. I can show this over and over again. For example, why is someone that creates the greatest value…food, so unjustly paid for the value they create? They are paid nothing for such a valuable product in out society. Compensation is just made up bs where we lie to ourselves and say it is justified by the market.

  26. The Great Pumpkin says:

    It’s all made up bs based on herd psychology. Don’t think for one second that there is a science to stock value…it’s a game of finding undervalued and selling overvalued. What’s overvalued and undervalued, well that depends on the feelings of the masses. They determine it, not the stock fundamentals.

    Fast Eddie says:
    April 23, 2019 at 11:32 am
    PG beats estimates yet the stock drops. Why does that occur? What dynamic causes a stock to drop based on solid earnings?

  27. 3b says:

    Fast investors have concerns PG won’t live up to their expectations for
    Continued growth.

  28. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Aka….What’s overvalued and undervalued, well that depends on the feelings of the masses. They determine it, not the stock fundamentals.

    3b says:
    April 23, 2019 at 11:45 am
    Fast investors have concerns PG won’t live up to their expectations for
    Continued growth.

  29. Libturd, can't say I didn't warn you. says:

    “PG beats estimates yet the stock drops. Why does that occur? What dynamic causes a stock to drop based on solid earnings?”

    Revised downward estimates that are too easy to beat?
    Though current earnings were met, management not to keen on the future?
    Were earnings derived from sales or from stock buybacks?
    Were sales short, though earning met or vice versa?
    Did they announce a move into canned pancake batter?

  30. The Great Pumpkin says:

    That’s why when blue ribbon called me out back in December to make a call. So I did. I said to buy all the Apple and amazon that you could, the masses turned on them, creating a huge value. Yes, I was dead on, but get no respect at all for my calls. Probably one of the best calls on top of the line no risk stocks ever made on this blog.

  31. BailOut GrimWhisky says:

    Grim and all you free market whiners,

    You guys seem to get into ideological circle j3rks around here.
    How fast you forget!! Billy Mays, he was dead already when the original ultra-tanned CEO Angelo Mozilo got bailed out.

    The moral authority about bail-out and free stuff went out when the Banksters got bail out and the federal deficit grew exponentially. Before that it was the neo-con/ military complex bail-out (Iraq 2 mess).

    So if the big connected boys got theirs, every gets something.

    grim says:
    April 23, 2019 at 9:46 am
    Seems like this election will be defined by the candidates who promise to give away the most…
    Who can channel Billy Mays the best?
    But wait, there’s more!

  32. Libturd, can't say I didn't warn you. says:

    You could have bought just about anything in in December and you’d look brilliant today.

  33. The Great Pumpkin says:

    And kiss my a$$ everyone….where is the got damn recession?

    My calls from 2012/13 have been going strong. How many more times are you going to think the recession is just around the corner? Maybe Pumpkin is onto something, but nah, let’s just keeping ignoring him…maybe his calls will stop coming true.

  34. BailOut Bystander says:

    Bystander,

    Because the 95% of the country is. That is why there is a gigantic social economically driven bifurcation. Guys living off the capital gains are in heaven. w-2 are in hell. Why Trump won, and will win again if a corporate dem gets anointed.

    Bystander said,

    If someone were to wipe last 10 years and throw me into this situation unaware, I would think Dow is at 10k, Europe is burning, markets in turmoil, unemployment at 15%..not kidding. The restrictions are austerity levels.

  35. joyce says:

    Nobody forgot. Did you forget about the bailouts prior to the 07/08 crisis and prior to Iraq 2?

    BailOut GrimWhisky says:
    April 23, 2019 at 11:54 am

  36. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Stop. You asked me to make a call and I did. No one was yelling and screaming like I was to buy. I was even advocating taking a home equity loan and buying at those prices because I knew they were beat down by inept market psychology. Didn’t have the balls to do that because anything can go wrong, but it was def there for the taking.

    So please just say nice call…

    Libturd, can’t say I didn’t warn you. says:
    April 23, 2019 at 11:54 am
    You could have bought just about anything in in December and you’d look brilliant today.

  37. JCer says:

    Bystander are you at UBS? I see that situation there, literally all contract workers. The crime in it is I used to work there when they had employees and it seems like they are actually getting less output. Using the body shops looks cheaper until you realize how much productivity suffers from having staff spread globally who doesn’t really understand the business.

  38. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Get out of here with this crap. You act like the compensation is perfect because we choose it? Who gets to choose? You get to choose the price of oil? Because we purchase it, we automatically approve of said compensation? Come back to reality.

    I know compensation will never be fair and don’t expect it. I also don’t sit here and naively take the position that compensation is fair because the market said so. The market isn’t this all powerful being that rights all wrongs. Clearly, we wouldn’t have the need for anti-monopolistic legislation if this was the case.

    “The market doesn’t just ‘throw up’ pre-tax incomes…the pre-tax income of any job is determined billions of times a day by the ‘votes’ – through purchases – of the entire population.

    What could be more just than every single person in literally the developed world having a daily say in evryone else’s compensation?”

  39. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Just look at compensation in a little vacuum. Let’s look at the nfl. How many contracts are fair? Almost none. A guy is usually overpaid or underpaid, rarely are they paid fairly. Now apply this to complex world markets and just imagine how bad it is. People are getting ripped off and other are making out like a bandit (most of your 1 %ers).

  40. Fast Eddie says:

    Obama added $8.335 trillion to the public debt – more than any other president. And no one benefited from it. A f.ucking waste of eight years. If I look at my investments over the last few years, it’s not even linear in growth, it’s exponential. Sure, let’s vote for a social1st in 2020 and watch it crash and burn.

  41. Leftwing says:

    I was and am clearly on record that the financial bailout was an abomination.

  42. JCer says:

    I have friend at MS who manages a team of developers from TCS and his feedback is the same. They are off in another country he can’t figure out what they are doing, the output is low and the quality is worse. Even at $250 a day a 1/4 the price of a local consultant, by the time you add the overhead on the onshore folks need to feed the requirements back it doesn’t save anything and the quality suffers. TCS can’t get you skilled people in India for that money, you can get middling Cobol skills and DB guys but real developers are hard at those dollars because the going salary over there for a real full stack developer is 30-50k and the body shops like to have 30% margin.

  43. Joe says:

    For once I agree with Pumkin about the economy. I don’t think we will see a crash until late 2024 at the earliest. There is still a lot of money to make in U.S. stocks over the next few years. By late 2024 I would not be surprised to see the Dow at 42,000 or higher.

  44. joyce says:

    Though President Trump said he would block money transfers to Mexico to fund a much-needed border wall, Mexicans in the U.S. sent a record $33.48 billion in remittances last year and a big chunk of it flowed through a government program operated by the Federal Reserve. This means that, amid an onslaught of illegal immigration, the U.S. government is largely responsible for the billions in remittances flowing south of the border from illegal aliens. Figures released by Mexico’s central bank show that 104 million transactions were executed in 2018, nearly six million more than the previous year.
    https://www.judicialwatch.org/blog/2019/04/most-of-the-33-billion-in-remittances-to-mexico-flow-via-u-s-govt-banking-program/

  45. Leftwing says:

    It’s not a call unless you trade it.

    Stupid and cowardly, lol.

    Keep typing, you may hit the Oz trifecta today

  46. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    Just look at compensation in a little vacuum. Let’s look at the nfl. How many contracts are fair? Almost none. A guy is usually overpaid or underpaid, rarely are they paid fairly. Now apply this to complex world markets and just imagine how bad it is. People are getting ripped off and other are making out like a bandit (most of your 1 %ers).

    You know…I can only think of one player that is underpaid in the NFL. Tom Brady.

  47. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    How much did you buy in December?

  48. chicagofinance says:

    The U.S. stock market is going to be at the mercy of the China smoke and mirrors, and the idiot Germans and French. I think the pie is finite for now…… (i.e. the U.S. benefit is going to come at the expense of other places.) I have a hard time believing it keeps the stock market cruising along much beyond the end of next year.

    Joe says:
    April 23, 2019 at 12:30 pm
    For once I agree with Pumkin about the economy. I don’t think we will see a crash until late 2024 at the earliest. There is still a lot of money to make in U.S. stocks over the next few years. By late 2024 I would not be surprised to see the Dow at 42,000 or higher.

  49. chicagofinance says:

    Joe: we are raising a generation of idiots; they want anything their mind can conjure, they want it immediately, and they want it for free => or have someone else pay for it.

    I was talking to a client the other day. Regular blue collar guy; modest means.

    He has a daughter that went to community college and has some bullsh!t job. Lives at home. Is about 26 or 27. She went to Seoul Korea with her girlfriend to attend 3 or 4 K-Pop concerts. I’m thinking WTF? Can you give me a better way to set money on fire?

  50. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Joe, it’s the truth. Glad you are being open minded. Honestly, when in your life have you seen an economy this strong and stable? Don’t let your hate for Pumpkin blind you by what I have been calling. This run is only getting started. Strong foundation lined up perfectly with demographics/business cycle. Greatest boom we have ever witnessed is upon us and I saw this coming a long long time ago.

    Joe says:
    April 23, 2019 at 12:30 pm
    For once I agree with Pumkin about the economy. I don’t think we will see a crash until late 2024 at the earliest. There is still a lot of money to make in U.S. stocks over the next few years. By late 2024 I would not be surprised to see the Dow at 42,000 or higher.

  51. The Great Pumpkin says:

    That pumpkin dagger hurts…hit you guys deep.

    Don’t worry, I didn’t expect you to acknowledge anything. I made one of the greatest economic calls a half decade in advance and didn’t get one congrats, so why would my calls on amazon and Apple be any different?

    Leftwing says:
    April 23, 2019 at 12:36 pm
    It’s not a call unless you trade it.

    Stupid and cowardly, lol.

    Keep typing, you may hit the Oz trifecta today
    Blue Ribbon Teacher says:
    April 23, 2019 at 12:41 pm
    Just look at compensation in a little vacuum. Let’s look at the nfl. How many contracts are fair? Almost none. A guy is usually overpaid or underpaid, rarely are they paid fairly. Now apply this to complex world markets and just imagine how bad it is. People are getting ripped off and other are making out like a bandit (most of your 1 %ers).

    You know…I can only think of one player that is underpaid in the NFL. Tom Brady.
    Blue Ribbon Teacher says:
    April 23, 2019 at 12:48 pm
    How much did you buy in December?

  52. Fast Eddie says:

    I’m thinking WTF? Can you give me a better way to set money on fire?

    I keep telling the younger crowd at work to sacrifice for a while and sock money away… as much as possible. Buy dividend assets, find growth vehicles, do some research and invest!! They shake their heads in agreement and then spend sick money on college friends’ weddings at these island destinations, etc. Their intelligent beyond belief, utra high IQ but the idea of building wealth is like a language from another planet.

  53. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Yup, they shook that tree just like I said.

    The Great Pumpkin says:
    November 15, 2018 at 12:00 pm
    I have said it on here before, and I’ll say it again. The concentration of money is at epic levels, and they are manipulating the market. The big dogs have decided that a recession is coming. They are pulling out of everything and it’s for no reason other than to rob the common man of their money. That’s the beauty of the stock market and all markets in general, they feed of the working class man. They create self induced recessions, sell before everyone else, create panic, and then buy back in during the panic. It’s immoral and unethical, but this is the game they will consistently play, and the common man is the fool that gets taken advantage of.

    There is absolutely no reason we should continue this ridiculous boom and bust pattern. It’s pathetic. You know it, and I know it. It doesn’t have to be this way. Yes, if you are smart, you can make money off these boom and busts too, but in the big picture, it hurts the majority of people for a few to make massive gains.

    JCer says:
    November 15, 2018 at 11:07 am
    bystander, the mysterious drop in oil price yesterday indicates some major people in the markets are worried. Oil is the lifeblood of the economy unless supply drastically changes it’s movements would be tied to expectations for industrial growth.

  54. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I knew exactly what was going on. The economic fundamentals were stupid strong, yet they were selling off claiming recession is coming…unreal.

    The Great Pumpkin says:
    November 15, 2018 at 3:13 pm
    Gas is at low, and you have this. Why do the big shots want to take down the economy by abandoning their positions? Why? No one should have so much money that they can derail the stock market with their positions. Such bs!

    “Small business optimism setting a new record with the need for employees hitting a 45-year high.”

  55. PumpkinFace says:

    Why do you need the approval of strangers on the internet? Clearly no one has respect for you here, why do you care? What are you an infant?

    The Great Pumpkin says:
    April 23, 2019 at 12:03 pm
    Stop. You asked me to make a call and I did. No one was yelling and screaming like I was to buy. I was even advocating taking a home equity loan and buying at those prices because I knew they were beat down by inept market psychology. Didn’t have the balls to do that because anything can go wrong, but it was def there for the taking.

    So please just say nice call…

  56. The Great Pumpkin says:

    And how many years have they done this during this bull run? This run is long in the tooth, recession is coming…heard this every year after the bull turned 5.

  57. Bailout Eddie says:

    Eddie,

    And guess on what it was spent? It was not Obama phones, but bail out to the banksters.
    Fast Eddie says:
    April 23, 2019 at 12:24 pm
    Obama added $8.335 trillion to the public debt – more than any other president. And no one benefited from it. A f.ucking waste of eight years. If I look at my investments over the last few years, it’s not even linear in growth, it’s exponential. Sure, let’s vote for a social1st in 2020 and watch it crash and burn.

  58. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    That pumpkin dagger hurts…hit you guys deep.

    Don’t worry, I didn’t expect you to acknowledge anything. I made one of the greatest economic calls a half decade in advance and didn’t get one congrats, so why would my calls on amazon and Apple be any different?

    lol, I’m fine with my investments.

  59. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Pumpkin face,

    I’m here to challenge myself. If you only debate people that like you and tell you what you want to hear, well, you will go nowhere fast. This place is exactly what I need to challenge my thinking process.

  60. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    I keep telling the younger crowd at work to sacrifice for a while and sock money away… as much as possible. Buy dividend assets, find growth vehicles, do some research and invest!! They shake their heads in agreement and then spend sick money on college friends’ weddings at these island destinations, etc. Their intelligent beyond belief, utra high IQ but the idea of building wealth is like a language from another planet.

    My cousins basically shunned me because I skipped on the last 4 destination weddings/bachelor parties. They haven’t been this mad at me since I bought my own beer at a NYC club and didn’t chip in on their $6000 bottle service tab.

  61. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    . If you only debate people that like you

    Who likes you?

  62. Fast Eddie says:

    And guess on what it was spent? It was not Obama phones, but bail out to the banksters.

    Thank G0d! It would have crippled the productive side of society. Then, who would take care of the lesser informed masses?

  63. JCer says:

    Eddie, you are describing my sister, ivy league educated but totally ignorant when it comes to money. I have some friends who are good at saving, investing etc and other who are actually a bit older who don’t get it. The truth is most Americans want instant gratification and spend foolishly. People who are responsible with money are the exception, you have to live, you have to spend, you can’t be a hermit but you shouldn’t spend foolishly. You can take money out of your daily expenses pretty easily and save significant sums. Most people waste tons of money on fundamentally fleeting things.

  64. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I love capitalism. I love the idea of saving, sacrificing, taking risks, and working hard paying off.

    When you get a class of citizens worth billions, that’s not a good thing. It will concentrate resources and power into a few hands, totally destroying what made capitalism great in the first place….competition and being rewarded for winning. With so few winners, eventually people will give up and stop playing. Is that what we want? Destroy the beautiful capitalist system because we want the exclusive individual right to be worth billions? F them. Tax them. No one needs a billion dollars, especially if it means hurting the capitalist economic system and its participants. Not worth it, so kiss my ass and pay higher taxes, clearly the tax rate is not high enough if you can accrue a 100 billion fortune in 20 years. For the greater good of the capitalist system…open your eyes.

  65. PumpkinFace says:

    So everyone else has to suffer so you get what you want?

    The Great Pumpkin says:
    April 23, 2019 at 1:32 pm
    Pumpkin face,

    I’m here to challenge myself. If you only debate people that like you and tell you what you want to hear, well, you will go nowhere fast. This place is exactly what I need to challenge my thinking process.

  66. The Great Pumpkin says:

    No one should have a monopoly on money and power, and that’s exactly what a billionaire is. That’s why they are a threat to the system.

  67. Fast Eddie says:

    …you have to live, you have to spend, you can’t be a hermit but you shouldn’t spend foolishly.

    Exactly. How much does a Broadway play and dinner in NYC cost? A few bucks but compare that to flying to Europe or an island, which the younger crowd talks about frequently. This, on top of the debt accumulated by getting their graduate degrees. Touche’ or getting these degrees from top schools but dropping 4k or 5k for a wedding trip is just criminal! I tell them, send a nice letter with a generous gift and put that money away.

  68. grim says:

    How much does a Broadway play and dinner in NYC cost?

    $1000 for a family of 4?

  69. 3b says:

    Fast bail out the bankers but hold no one accountable. Moral hazard indeed! You can’t be surprised now with forgiving student loan debt.

  70. Fast Eddie says:

    grim,

    Probably. But I’m thinking a young couple, the millennial crowd that drops $4000 on trips and wedding destinations. A play and dinner for two for 4 to 5 hundred. My point is, forget the lavish vacations and save money.

  71. joyce says:

    You’re talking out of both sides of your mouth.

    Fast Eddie says:
    April 23, 2019 at 1:38 pm
    And guess on what it was spent? It was not Obama phones, but bail out to the banksters.

    Thank G0d! It would have crippled the productive side of society. Then, who would take care of the lesser informed masses?

  72. Fast Eddie says:

    You can’t be surprised now with forgiving student loan debt.</I<

    Go to a state school, a community college followed by a transfer to a state school or learn a trade. Getting a degree in gender studies or some useless lib art degree is not our problem. You can go to Montclair State for $15,000 per year.

  73. Fast Eddie says:

    Italics off I hope.

  74. Fast Eddie says:

    Sarcasm, joyce! It’s sarcasm!

  75. Libturd, can't say I didn't warn you. says:

    “Perversion Files”

    That’s hot!

    Now I know how Joey got his Eagle badge.

  76. Mike S says:

    Between weddings, gifts, hotels, bachelor parties, wife’s clothes, etc – I guarantee I will end up spending around $2K this year. Hopefully the weddings dry up soon.

    I realized I end up spending nearly $3500 a year just on gifts for others.

    Max your 401K not your CC…

  77. Libturd says:

    Perhaps the Catholic Church and the Boy Scouts of America should merge? Imagine the synergies?

  78. joyce says:

    Sorry, I didn’t follow. So are you saying the ones that were bailed out are not productive members of society? Because I’d agree with that.

    Fast Eddie says:
    April 23, 2019 at 2:13 pm
    Sarcasm, joyce! It’s sarcasm!

  79. Joe says:

    I get my investment advice from Armstrong.

    You should also read from that link I provided.

    “Don’t let your hate for Pumpkin blind you by what I have been calling”

  80. 3b says:

    Fast I don’t disagree with you. Just stating why. My kids all went to state schools and all doing well and it’s paid for!! Many north Jersey parents turn their noses up at NJ state schools you will see it in your new leafy Bergen Co town.

  81. JCer says:

    Joyce here’s the issue, the bankers got bailed out because because they control the flow of capital. You had to bail out the banks because if lending stops viable businesses go under which is bad for the economy, bad for workers, and bad for consumers. The issue is the moral hazard, the bankers shouldn’t have been bailed out but the banks needed to be. Almost every business needs capital and almost every business has cash management issues.

  82. Bail Out Jcrs says:

    That’s a lot of Bull.

    1991 – The Resolution Trust Corporation sold the assets of the underlying bad mortgages and business loans of the FDIC/FSLIC failed entities. The Fed prosecuted over 5500 including a Reagan kid and Charles Keating – today’s version of Jamie Dimon with a touch of self-righteous Christianity morality. Jamie Dimon would not have existed then, would not have been allowed.

    Difference greatest generation leadership vs. boomer corrupt leadership.

    The issue is the moral hazard, the bankers shouldn’t have been bailed out but the banks needed to be. Almost every business needs capital and almost every business has cash management issues.

  83. No One says:

    The real free market thinkers for decades have been saying to get rid of central banking, to get rid of the deposit insurance and the “too big to fail” thinking, and avoiding over reliance on regulatory capital adequacy standards. When bad banks can fail, good banks get rewarded for strong balance sheets by growing their market share.
    Blaming free-market types for banker bailouts is entirely unfair.
    The biased media has changed the narrative to this rather than the story of the politically connected Fannie&Freddie that made politically correct lending decisions, the politically connected bankers who suckle at the Fed/Treasury flow of fiat money.

  84. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    That must be why you pay so much for your property tax bill, Pumps. Not everyone can afford a house with a highway right at the end of their driveway. Most people can only afford houses on small, low speed roads.

    “how did you get to their house to cut their grass? on a road? who paid to lay the tarmac? did any bandits rob you on the way? No? Who paid for the police to stop that kind of stuff? someone’s got to pay for those things. If not the economic operators, then who? Martians?”

  85. SISenltub says:

    https://pradiz.com/tours/minsk
    Minsk Tours
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  86. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    You’d be better prepared to attempt critical thought if you had the same attitude about high school. No time for books and degrees when the post office is calling, I guess.

    The Great Pumpkin says:
    April 23, 2019 at 1:32 pm
    Pumpkin face,

    I’m here to challenge myself. If you only debate people that like you and tell you what you want to hear, well, you will go nowhere fast. This place is exactly what I need to challenge my thinking process.

  87. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    There is no intersection on that Venn diagram for you Pumps.

    If you only debate people that like you and tell you what you want to hear, well, you will go nowhere fast.

  88. JCer says:

    Banking changed in big way from the 80’s, you can blame government regulation for TBTF. Based on the events in 2008 allowing bank failures would have caused an unwinding of derivatives which simply did not exist in the way they do today back in the RTC days. It’s like throwing accelerant on a fire. Allowing even some of the entities to fail would have eliminated pretty much every banking entity in the US and there aren’t any entrants waiting to enter the market.

    The issue was not propping up the banks given the situation but the management and some of the bankers themselves should have been prosecuted/forced to pay restitution. The shareholders should have been wiped out as should some of the bond holder, CDS should have been negotiated not paid in full. Basically the banking sector and bankers in general should have felt some pain as part of a bailout. TBTF is a big problem, the interconnected risk of all the participants creates a huge problem and banking regulation seems to only make it worse by all but insuring only large players can enter the market.

  89. leftwing says:

    I’m not so sure that the young generation dropping all that cash has it wrong…..

    If recent events have taught one anything, it is that financial prudence is penalized while profligacy is tolerated and bailed out.

    Were you one of the savers who delayed a home purchase until you had at 20% down, did not HELOC yourself to your eyeballs, and met all your obligations? Or were you one of 3% down crowd who effectively purchased a free option and walked away with minimal consequences to finances and credit? Why would you opt to save?

    Did you save to go to college, have the family put away 529s rather than spend, take work study, and go to a state university you can afford? Or did you leverage yourself to your eyeballs? Student debt relief. who comes out ahead? Why would you opt to save?

    I believe this generation is acting perfectly rationally. Why save and show restraint your entire life to be taxed out of your homestead in retirement? Or watch your neighbor bailed out. With YOUR money?

    Experience is showing them little ramification to what for many generations was considered poor financial management. If that’s the case, why wouldn’t you behave exactly as they do now? Anything else would be irrational.

  90. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Yeah, in the 1980’s the NYC banks had underpaid captive white guys shipped over from the UK. Now it’s underpaid captive Indian guys.

    Banking changed in big way from the 80’s,

  91. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Exactly. Those idiots thought they had a perfectly hedged arbitrage profit between the CDS they sold and the ones they bought, why not lever up a perfectly hedged position 35 to 1? What they didn’t realize was that what they really had was betting ring, and the biggest losers (Bear, Lehman, AIG) were all going to skip town.

    CDS should have been negotiated not paid in full.

  92. JCer says:

    Ex, I worked on an risk analytics platform for a desk at a major IB after working for an inter-broker dealer on a trading platform for CDS shortly after the crash. The sausage machines are still running, and the banking/insurance business is still dangerous. There was a big push to use modeling, CVA’s and hedging to de-risk the counter party risk on derivative positions but the reality is you have a bunch of PHD’s sitting around trying to figure out how to allow the traders to underwrite more CDS without breaching capital requirements. Everyone knows during a black swan event the models will break down and pretty much cease to function meaning that if something crazy happens the banks and insurers aren’t nearly as well capitalized as the regulators think they are….back to lefts point about behaviors not changing when there are no consequences.

  93. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    TBTF is a big problem, the interconnected secret risk of all the participants creates a huge problem and banking regulation seems to only make it worse by all but insuring only large players can enter the market.

    https://www.pogo.org/investigation/2014/04/how-clinton-team-thwarted-effort-to-regulate-derivatives/

  94. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    JCer – (4:47) – Thanks for the inside baseball, I kind of suspected as much.

  95. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    In case anybody else is interested in what JCer is talking about. Pumps already knows this stuff of course.

    https://www.cmegroup.com/education/files/fincad-hedge-accounting-kpmg-3.pdf

  96. 3b says:

    Left wing well said! Why should they save and invest and then do the right thing??

  97. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    I’m not so sure that the young generation dropping all that cash has it wrong…..

    They definitely have more fun than I do…but also complain about how poor they are. I regularly hear things like, “who has $10,000 in the bank?”. I suspect, 20 years down the road, they’ll be wondering what the hell happened when they wake up…are 55, and have nothing to show for it.

  98. 3b says:

    BRT: fair points but I understand the frustration and the sense of what’s the point. We instilled in our children from a young age the importance of saving and living within their means. We stressed that financial peace of mind is worth so much. We are the children of immigrants so we passed that mindset down. However, we also stressed the need for balance and it’s ok to go on vacation and spend money just don’t be foolish. Fortunately they have taken our advice and turned down extravagant vacations and or bachelor parties. But that being said I understand the frustration of that generation. I stayed out in the 80s marriage and children and it was a lot easier and could be done on one income. Now today it’s two as even if it is doable on one income it’s too risky to give up that second income for 5 years or so. Meanwhile I hear my friends complaining about the high property taxes yet they are the same ones who voted yes for every spending referendum and now they want out. But they want the millenials to pay two to three times what they paid for the same house and the high property taxes. If that was my choice today I might be flying off to the Costa del Sol for a bachelor party too.

  99. chicagofinance says:

    Cynical and slightly humorous, but most people are not wired to act rationally (i.e Dick Thaler et al.), even with perverse incentives. In the same vein, people can’t be expected to keep their composure under financial duress.

    Just because you CAN be bailed out, doesn’t mean that being bailed out is enjoyable or enviable.

    leftwing says:
    April 23, 2019 at 4:24 pm
    If recent events have taught one anything, it is that financial prudence is penalized while profligacy is tolerated and bailed out.

    Experience is showing them little ramification to what for many generations was considered poor financial management. If that’s the case, why wouldn’t you behave exactly as they do now? Anything else would be irrational.

  100. 3b says:

    Chi at one time perhaps but not now. I think people would have no problem being bailed out and would be quite pleased with themselves and or think they deserve it it’s not their fault.

  101. chicagofinance says:

    The other thing about liquidity and capitalization with insurers was that much of those resources were otherwise encumbered due to insurance industry regs. These rules of restriction and posting of capital were either off the radar, or opaque (willfully?), from most of the analytics of the corporate finance types.

    JCer says:
    April 23, 2019 at 4:47 pm
    Everyone knows during a black swan event the models will break down and pretty much cease to function meaning that if something crazy happens the banks and insurers aren’t nearly as well capitalized as the regulators think they are….back to lefts point about behaviors not changing when there are no consequences.

  102. NoStander says:

    Is it possible the next black swan event is related to all the CLOs many of which are covenant lite debt that is either junk or falsely rated as investment grade for companies whose real financial situation is hidden by low interest rates. Not as knowledgeable as many of you on this type of thing but I think f the economy were truly strong, it would not struggle with interest rates of around 2.25% when a truly strong economy should be able to handle rates at least 1.25% or so higher. Kind of like the NFL prospect who says he is in good shape and can barely get 225 off the rack when is should be 475.

  103. Libturd, can't say I didn't warn you. says:
  104. chicagofinance says:

    Next black swan is Chinese investors buying CLO’s and overrated high yield U.S. paper on subordinated tranches. The Chinese are not christened by 2007-2009, so they don’t understand that cash is cash, and “high yielding cash” is crap (i.e. you can’t get blood from a stone). There will be some “stress” on the system, and they will reach for their liquidity to find it either, isn’t there, or else they will take haircuts on what they thought was cash. That will cascade into the inability to post sufficient capital, which will necessitate margin selling, and cascading over here, because they own sh!tloads of assets here…….. take your fcuking guess the timing….. I’m all ears….

    NoStander says:
    April 23, 2019 at 6:16 pm
    Is it possible the next black swan event is related to all the CLOs many of which are covenant lite debt that is either junk or falsely rated as investment grade for companies whose real financial situation is hidden by low interest rates. Not as knowledgeable as many of you on this type of thing but I think f the economy were truly strong, it would not struggle with interest rates of around 2.25% when a truly strong economy should be able to handle rates at least 1.25% or so higher. Kind of like the NFL prospect who says he is in good shape and can barely get 225 off the rack when is should be 475.

  105. ExEssex says:

    Meanwhile….
Lawyers for dozens of sexually-abused children on Tuesday released the names of 130 Boy Scout leaders in New York who’ve been accused of molesting boys in their care.
Detailing decades of unchecked abuse, with comparisons to the Catholic Church pedophile priest scandal, the attorneys said they plan on filing multiple lawsuits against the non-profit Boy Scouts of America organization, which, according to its website, prides itself in “youth protection” training.
At a Midtown news conference, the lawyers said the 130 scout leaders from New York City and Hudson Valley area are among 7,000 Boy Scout leaders across the country.
The announcement was made in conjunction with lawyers in New Jersey who detailed similar abuse at a news conference in Newark, naming another 50 alleged pedophile Boy Scout leaders.

”The alarming thing about this is not just the numbers,” said Jeff Anderson, whose Manhattan law firm specializes in child sexual abuse cases. “The fact is that the Boy Scouts of America has never actually released these names in any form that can be known to the public. They may have removed them from scouting, they may have kept them in their perversion file, but they never alerted the community.”
Anderson called it a system of denial and cover-ups. He claims the Boy Scouts have files on child abusers within their ranks dating back to the 1940s.
”This is a real peril,” Anderson said. “It’s a systematic problem. These are perversion files and secrets held by the Boy Scouts of America.”
The Boy Scouts of America responded to the claims in a statement, saying they “care deeply about all victims of child sex abuse and sincerely apologize to anyone who was harmed during their time in Scouting.”

  106. Leftwing says:

    Lib, omfug. Don’t know how I missed that originally but it is fcuking hilarious.

  107. Libturd, can't say I didn't warn you. says:

    Leftwing,

    I wrote it 8 months ago. Never had the balls to post it to my Facebook. I know too many people who would be offended by it.

  108. Bystander says:

    Classic Lib. I am waiting on gofundmyprosperaccount before joining the sad story parade.

  109. Libturd, can't say I didn't warn you. says:

    Probably a better move. I posted it to my twitter account. We’ll see if it gets any action. :P

  110. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    Destination Wedding….lol, on the other side of the planet….

    https://www.nj.com/opinion/2019/04/carolyn-hax-we-want-a-destination-wedding-in-hawaii-but-our-relatives-wont-fly-what-should-we-do.html

    Dear Carolyn:

    My fiance and I are planning a Hawaii wedding. We’re from the east coast. We would love for all of our family to make the wedding, but we understand some of our family and friends won’t be able to make it.

    I have an aunt who is notorious for influencing others to make family vacation plans within driving distance because she has a fear of flying. That fear is now interfering with our wedding. She is not willing to come to Hawaii due to that fear, and now her parents and her siblings are frustrated with us for planning a wedding that is not within driving distance.

    Are we crazy to think this day should be about us and should be where we want it? Or should we fold and have the wedding somewhere she can drive to? Am I being an ungracious bride?

    My family can’t seem to understand there will be an irreparable rift between my aunt and me if she ruins yet another family event.

    — T.

  111. 1987 condo says:

    I am so old that I used to think that the bride and groom paid for the travel and boarding of guests if they had a so called destination wedding, lol!

    To me, the Honeymoon is for the couple, the ceremony is to make a public commitment to friends, family and the community.

  112. Libturd says:

    Destination weddings are almost as stupid as when parties are made on holidays to get the banquet hall for cheap. Both should be illegal. Sadly, for what my father-in-law spent to have the most lavish affair that I’ve ever been to in my life, I could have flown all my friends and most of my family members down to Rosarita and we would have partied our asses of for a week. Instead, with the number of people invited, we had enough time to spend 40 seconds with each guest. Sure, the food was incredible, the band had more members than the E Street Band and the setting was gorgeous. But how much more memorable would it have been if we all spent a week down on Baja throwing back Negra Modelos and fish tacos while playing endless volleyball and tipping the mariachi band to get them to stop playing. I did the math back then. We could have done a whole week, charter plane included for 50. Housing, food, band and even the wedding for less than those 5 hours cost. But it was very clear that this was not our party from the get-go. This was my father-in-law’s party. We were just part of the cast.

  113. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    What’s hilarious is that this woman is writing a newspaper and demonizing the aunt while she is the one who is certifiable.

  114. ExEssex says:

    We all need a benefactor.

  115. leftwing says:

    “But it was very clear that this was not our party from the get-go. This was my father-in-law’s party. We were just part of the cast.”

    Me too. Met down the shore, it was the only part of NJ I had ever been to outside of Hoboken (and probably the only two I liked even back then lol).

    Carbon copy wedding of my BIL, same bedroom community, same church, same photo backdrops, same hall, same guests. Sigh. Should have been the first clue the marriage wasn’t getting off on the right foot.

  116. leftwing says:

    How great would a June shore wedding have been.

  117. Comrade Nom Deplume, Mea Maxima Culpa says:

    I am very sorry that I kicked the pumpkin and woke it up.

  118. Did you have to ask says:

    Am I being an ungracious bride?

  119. Libturd, still in Union, mainly on Thursdays. says:

    I just found out that my gubmint worker brother in law has both a pension based on top 5 years income and a thrift (401K with 5% match). What an idiot I am!

  120. Libturd, can't say I didn't warn you. says:

    More Tesla empty promises.

    Tesla Stock

    The Tesla earnings report showed an adjusted loss of $2.90 a share, far worse than views. Revenue also badly missed. The luxury electric-car maker expects negative cash flow in Q2, but positive cash levels in Q3 and Q4. Despite work on a Shanghai plant and the Model Y, Tesla capital spending was just $210 million.

    Tesla stock edged lower after hours. Shares ended the regular session off 2% at 258.66, a six-month closing low. The relative strength line is at its worst levels in more than two years, underscoring Tesla stock’s underperformance vs. the S&P 500 index.

  121. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “To judge by Twitter and cable news, the Democratic Party has become a raging leftist cult of social!sts hell-bent on transforming the U.S. into Venezuela. But what if that’s wrong and the media are wildly misrepresenting the party, which remains quite moderate?

    The reasons are simple. Right-leaning media like to lavish the lion’s share of coverage on the radicals of the Democratic Party—to paint the entirety of their opposition as out-of-step cry-bully social!sts. But the left-leaning media bear responsibility as well. The same journalists who decry “alternative facts” seize on every Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez or Ilhan Omar tidbit with Gollum-like zeal.

    Yet it’s not clear that the social-media warriors they’ve elevated to pop-star status are the least bit representative of the party. As Rep. Dean Phillips of Minnesota told Politico: “Suddenly an entire party is being branded by the perspectives of two of its members, who represent 1% of the caucus.” The rest of the Democratic freshmen are less visible not only due to clickbait bias but because they are busy creating legislation or holding town halls in their districts—that is, doing their jobs.”

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/are-all-democrats-social!st-dont-believe-the-hype-11556058914

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