Nobody wants to sell?

From HousingWire:

U.S. housing market experiences largest inventory decline since last year

In August, America’s home sales slid 1.6%, marking the sixth month of 2019 that produced fewer sales than the previous year, according to the RE/MAX National Housing Report.

RE/MAX reports buyer demand outpaced homes listed for sale in August, causing the largest inventory decline in 13 months. Overall, the number of homes for sale fell 5.5% from 2018’s level and 1.5% from the previous month.

The modest inventory growth that started last fall has been swallowed up by demand as buyers have returned to the market, likely spurred on by attractive interest rates, RE/MAX CEO Adam Contos said.

“Home sales dipping at the same time inventory falls suggests there may have been some reluctance on the part of sellers to list their homes,” Contos said. “Nevertheless, demand is again ahead of supply, extending the favorable seller’s market that has been in place for several years.”

According to RE/MAX, August posted a 2.8-month supply of inventory, falling from 2.9-month supply in August 2018. Homes spent 44 days on the market, which is one day longer than they did last year.

The median price for a home was $263,00 in August, rising 5.7% from last year. Going back to February 2012, prices have now climbed on an annual basis in 89 of the past 91 months.

This entry was posted in Economics, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

55 Responses to Nobody wants to sell?

  1. dentss dunnigan says:

    First and second

  2. chicagofinance says:

    chicagofinance says:
    September 23, 2019 at 10:58 pm
    Just a few items relative to repos et al….

    Bear in mind we are coming up on a calendar quarter end. Cash can get pricey and distorted…… don’t get thrown by interest rates being tossed around. The target is 175-200, but really it went up to 230 with strss giving some unusal data points…… but this money is short-term. Maybe someone paid 900, but that is an annualized number. 900 for 10-14 days to get to October 1st is not that big a deal.

    I agree with left….. something is going on, but I would point to Iran in distress, Venezuela and Argentina….. these places are hording cashin USD under serious distress.

    The other point is banks are now restricted in terms of how they can lever up and manage their balances sheets, and also there has been talk of terming out UST. It may be nice to lock in low rates on government debt, but it also replaces liquidity in money markets with illiquid long-term obligations.

    It doesn’t explain everything, but there is a lot of sh!t going on in the background. Bottom line, there are people that rather hold on to their cash than put it to work……. somehow, I think the unnamed source is oil money…. Iran, Venezuela, Russia….. panic but not of the sort we think…..

    Bottom line, I am just taking wild stabs…..

  3. grim says:

    China/Hong Kong
    India/Pakistan/Kashmir
    New War in the Middle East

  4. Juice Box says:

    St. Louis Reserve Bank president, James Bullard, commented:

    “Something is going on, and that’s causing I think a total rethink of central banking and all our cherished notions about what we think we’re doing…. We just have to stop thinking that next year things are going to be normal.”

    The first day was $53 Billion, second day was $75 Billion and so on and so on.

    Powell admitted they may have to regrow the balance sheet and so they will starting with 14 day Repos. We shall see how far it goes.

  5. Juice Box says:

    U.S. Home Price Growth Continues to Lose Momentum
    Average national home prices grew 3.2% in year ending in July, according to S&P Case-Shiller index.

    Home price growth is continuing to lose momentum, a boon to buyers who are also benefiting from falling mortgage rates and a trend that could help sustain the recent pickup in home sales.

    Average national home prices grew 3.2% in the year ending in July, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index, unchanged from the prior month. The gain in the 20-city index slowed to 2% from 2.2% the prior month.

    Economists…

    TO READ THE FULL STORY

  6. grim says:

    The Case Shiller NY Commuter story is still one focused on the low end of the market, not the high end..

    Low Tier (below $323k)
    Up 4.4% Year over Year
    Up 12.5% Two Year

    Mid Tier ($323-509k)
    Up 2.4% Year over Year
    Up 7.9% Two Year

    High Tier (Over $509k)
    Flat Year over Year (Down 0.5%)
    Up 1.2% Two Year

    Condos finally hit a wall, up 1% YOY and 2Y.

  7. Tuesday CrashBaby says:

    From Wall Street on Parade,

    https://wallstreetonparade.com/2019/09/what-has-frightened-wall-street-banks-from-lending-in-the-repo-market/

    What Has Frightened Wall Street Banks from Lending in the Repo Market?

    By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: September 24, 2019 ~

    Last Friday the Federal Reserve Bank of New York made it clear that its interventions in the overnight repo lending market were going to be a longer-term action. Call it what you will, the Fed has effectively returned to quantitative easing (QE) where it buys up Treasuries, Federal agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) from financial institutions in exchange for loans.

    According to the New York Fed, the program has now been extended to at least October 10 and likely thereafter in one form or another. The Fed will be pumping in $75 billion daily in overnight repo loans while infusing $30 billion in 14-day term loans three times this week for a total of $90 billion in term loans.

    The fact that there is one or more financial firms needing $30 billion on a two-week basis and can’t get it from anyone but the Fed isn’t confidence inspiring.

    The necessity of Fed interventions is being blamed on temporary forces like a loss of liquidity from corporations paying their taxes for the quarter and large Treasury auctions where primary dealers are forced to buy under contracts with the U.S. Treasury. But as we previously wrote, these explanations do not jive with the gargantuan deposit bases of four of the biggest banks in the world that call the United States home. As we reported last week:

    “As of June 30 of this year, the four largest banks on Wall Street (which are allowed to own Federally insured commercial banks as well as stock, bond and derivative gambling casinos known as investment banks) held more than $5.45 trillion in deposits. The breakdown is as follows: JPMorgan Chase holds $1.6 trillion; Bank of America has $1.44 trillion; Wells Fargo has $1.35 trillion; and Citibank is home to just over $1 trillion.

    “A number of excuses have been offered by the business press to explain why the New York Fed had to ride to the rescue yesterday but the very simple question is this: how can four banks with $5.45 trillion in deposits not be able to cough up $53 billion in overnight loans.”

    The reference to $53 billion is the amount that was borrowed from the Fed during the first day of the intervention, Tuesday, September 17, from the $75 billion offered out by the Fed. Now that the Fed is offering $30 billion in additional two-week loans, the question is this: is one bank tapping the spigot more than others? Is a financial institution in distress? If so, shouldn’t the public know why?

    As the Government Accountability Office (GAO) revealed belatedly in 2011 in an audit of the Fed’s loans to Wall Street during the financial crisis, the Fed’s Primary Dealer Credit Facility (PDCF) had secretly made revolving loans totaling $8.95 trillion but 63 percent of that amount went to just three Wall Street firms: Citigroup received $2 trillion; Morgan Stanley got $1.9 trillion; and Merrill Lynch was the privileged recipient of $1.775 trillion. The rationale from the Fed that it made these secret loans to help banks return to lending to businesses to help the economy is bogus. Morgan Stanley and Merrill Lynch were predominantly retail brokerage firms with millions of trading clients. These Fed loans thus looked suspiciously like a bailout of margin loans and trading accounts.

    One big bank with a large footprint on Wall Street that has seen its share price evaporate over the past two years is the big German lender, Deutsche Bank. Prior to the financial crisis, this was a $120 stock. Deutsche Bank closed yesterday on the New York Stock Exchange at $7.79, down 2.50 percent on the day. That decline far exceeded the price decline for any other Wall Street bank yesterday.

    Deutsche Bank tried to merge with Commerzbank earlier this year but that deal fell through in April. Its new plan is to fire 18,000 workers and create a good bank/bad bank, isolating off unwanted assets that it plans to sell.

    Deutsche Bank has reported losses in three of the last four years; as of the close of trading yesterday, it had $16 billion in common equity value versus $49 trillion notional (face amount) in derivatives; and it’s had four different CEOs in four years. And that’s not the worst of it.

    The worst of it is that regulators on neither side of the pond have seen fit to rein in the dangerous interconnections that Deutsche Bank has as a major derivatives counterparty with mega banks on Wall Street as well as other European banks. (See After a $354 Billion U.S. Bailout, Germany’s Deutsche Bank Still Has $49 Trillion in Derivatives.)

    According to a 2016 report from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Deutsche Bank is heavily interconnected as a financial counterparty to JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America as well as to big European banks. The IMF wrote that Deutsche Bank posed a greater threat to global financial stability than any other bank as a result of these interconnections. When the IMF made that assessment in 2016, Deutsche Bank had tens of billions of dollars more in market cap than it does today.

  8. Tuesday CrashBaby says:

    Grim,

    Please release. Copy/Paste of Repo issue.

  9. chicagofinance says:

    Everyone talk about pop music…..

    grim says:
    September 24, 2019 at 9:29 am
    China/Hong Kong
    India/Pakistan/Kashmir
    New War in the Middle East

  10. chicagofinance says:

    Notice he said 14 day repos….. gets us past October 1st….. don’t get wigged out…. very short term issue…. however, it is a treadmill…. every day is a new puzzle to solve.

    Next up is 12/31….. bigger deal….

    I was working a money market desk for AT&T on 12/31/99.

    Juice Box says:
    September 24, 2019 at 9:48 am
    Powell admitted they may have to regrow the balance sheet and so they will starting with 14 day Repos. We shall see how far it goes.

  11. kevstev says:

    Jersey City has seen considerable softness the past quarter or so, especially at the higher end. Brownstones and 2BR+ homes are sitting. Surprised nationally this is still seen as a strong sellers market.

  12. Libturd, seen crazy things done with ping pong balls. says:

    Quite a reversal today so far. I swear, there’s gotta be something hiding under the surface here.

  13. Libturd, seen crazy things done with ping pong balls. says:

    Speaking of hiding, have any of you heard anything from ExPat? I think he’s fallen off the edge of flat earth that he believes in.

  14. Fast Eddie says:

    What, no mention of Danny Dimes’ (a name I hate, btw) performance? Is Darnold miffed that the other NY QB is stealing his thunder?

  15. grim says:

    Could be Jerusalem, or it could be Cairo
    Could be Berlin, or it could be Prague
    Could be Moscow, could be New York
    Could be Llanelli, and it could be Warrington
    Could be Warsaw, and it could be Moose Jaw
    Could be Rome
    Everybody got somewhere they call home

    When they overrun the defences
    A minor invasion put down to expenses
    Will you go down to the airport lounge
    Will you accept your second class status
    A nation of waitresses and waiters
    Will you mix their martinis
    Will you stand still for it
    Or will you take to the hills

    It could be clay and it could be sand
    Could be desert
    Could be a tract of arable land
    Could be a house, could be a corner shop
    Could be a cabin by a bend in the river
    Could be something your old man handed down
    Could be something you built on your own
    Everybody got something he calls home

    When the cowboys and Arabs draw down
    On each other at noon
    In the cool dusty air of the city boardroom
    Will you stand by a passive spectator
    Of the market dictators
    Will you discreetly withdraw
    With your ear pressed to the boardroom door
    Will you hear when the lion within you roars
    Will you take to the hills

  16. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    Climate update, the hot dry weather has me producing about 4 to 5 times more tomatoes than I usually do in September.

  17. Grim says:

    Looks like a great year for corn – this season’s crop will make fine whiskey.

  18. Grim says:

    Will be distilling this years harvest in 2-3 weeks, plenty early.

  19. chicagofinance says:

    Yes Deutsche Bank is a POS….. as good an opinion as any…. however, the idea that the writer used the word jive instead of jibe makes me question the authority of the facts more than maybe I should…. maybe someone is long vol and in hoping to incite chaos… and is pissed that The Fed is tamping it down….

  20. Libturd, channelling ExPat says:

    Ugh.

    I’ve got some terrible news for you all. Our buddy ExPat passed on August 6th. Don’t know the deets, but his obituary is there. Say a prayer for his soul. As tough as he thought he was on Pumps and Joyce, he was really a kind person and a puzzy cat. I can’t tell you all enough how much he loved his kids and his family and got the whole Pura Vida thing. Gonna have to go it alone I guess. For what’s it worth, I think that trip gave him a lot of peace. And now I have an answer as to why he didn’t work on our trip blog.

    To a really great guy and kindred soul. RIP Paul.

    https://needapuravida.blogspot.com/

    https://photos.app.goo.gl/Bh6aH2KsvQjafsFaA

  21. Fast Eddie says:

    Stu,

    Holy sh1t!

    How old was he? What happened?

  22. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Over a million market is going to be hurting for a while. Going to take at least half a decade or more for the millennials to start hitting the high end market. Going to be able to make a good profit if you buy into the dead high end market and hold for it to come back.

  23. The Great Pumpkin says:

    How many millennials (the driver of the current market for the next two decades) can afford million plus at the moment? The boomers drove that market up during their peak spending years, just as the millennials will do. First, millennials drove up rental market. Then starter home market, and currently still doing that. Some millennials are already approaching the move up stage. Peak spending years are in our 50s…it starts in our 40’s. These millennials will be spending like crazy soon.

  24. Stu from Jersey says:

    59. Wow. I’m hopping on the treadmill as I type this.

  25. Bystander says:

    Damn, Lib. That is tragic..particularly with young girls. While I did not agree much with his politics and nasty attacks, def came across as a smart person who cared about his family. RIP, Paul.

  26. Tuesday Siesta Time says:

    Chicago,

    Maybe Deutsche Bank is the AIG of today, and JPM Chase is GS using its muscle to make sure they get paid first.

    BTW, the moment that Wall Street knew it owned the joint was 1998 Travellers’ and Citibank’s merger, which was actually illegal for over 1 year, but Bill Clinton did nothing about it because of the massive donations to Hillary’s NY Senate campaign.

    chicagofinance says:
    September 24, 2019 at 12:44 pm

    Yes Deutsche Bank is a POS….. as good an opinion as any…. however, the idea that the writer used the word jive instead of jibe makes me question the authority of the facts more than maybe I should…. maybe someone is long vol and in hoping to incite chaos… and is pissed that The Fed is tamping it down….

  27. Libturd, seen crazy things done with ping pong balls. says:

    Never really got that side of him. And yes, I feel for his daughters. They are both brilliant kids, so they’ll get by. His widow is a smart cookie too. If there was one thing that really stood out about him, I would say it was his ability to not judge people by appearance. He could care less where you came from as long as you meant good. The dude was really a great judge of character and just a fantastic conversationalist. Brilliant with math and programming too. Not driven by money one bit. He was also hell bent on limiting smart phone use. He felt “the glass,” would spell the end of society as we knew it. He might be right.

  28. 3b says:

    Lib So sorry to hear that. He was a very interesting man. Passionate in his beliefs. My condolences to his family. May he RIP.

  29. Libturd, seen crazy things done with ping pong balls. says:

    And for what it’s worth, he was way more centrist than he led most to believe. :P

  30. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Damn, terrible news. I was wondering what happened to him. As much as he busted my balls, he was a good guy trying to get me to see the light.

    Libturd, channelling ExPat says:
    September 24, 2019 at 12:50 pm
    Ugh.

    I’ve got some terrible news for you all. Our buddy ExPat passed on August 6th. Don’t know the deets, but his obituary is there. Say a prayer for his soul. As tough as he thought he was on Pumps and Joyce, he was really a kind person and a puzzy cat. I can’t tell you all enough how much he loved his kids and his family and got the whole Pura Vida thing. Gonna have to go it alone I guess. For what’s it worth, I think that trip gave him a lot of peace. And now I have an answer as to why he didn’t work on our trip blog.

  31. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Kind of was like a father figure to me here, constantly showing me that tough love.

  32. ExEssex says:

    Shit dude. Sorry .
    He looks a lot like a guy I hang out here.
    May he RIP.

    On the other haha you look like a guy who’d seduce
    The baby sitter .

  33. Libturd, seen crazy things done with ping pong balls. says:

    Thanks for the compliment.

  34. Fast Eddie says:

    On the other haha you look like a guy who’d seduce
    The baby sitter

    Age and description required before we judge.

  35. The Great Pumpkin says:

    What did he pass from, if you don’t mind me asking?

    I always pictured him as some old grey haired Asian man.

  36. Juice Box says:

    Rip Expat – give them all hell in the afterlife.

  37. Grim says:

    Oh man that sucks

  38. NJCoast says:

    So long ExPat, we’ll miss you.

  39. ExEssex says:

    He’s giving off a real Ben Franklin vibe in that picture.

  40. Comrade Nom Deplume, still the deplumiest says:

    We LOVE Gov. Murphy and Comrade Mayor DiBlasio on this side of the river”

    ” . . . Between 2013 and 2017, the number of millionaires in Pennsylvania jumped 30 percent, from 13,412 to 17,484, according to the revenue department data. The state’s biggest concentration of millionaires is in the Philadelphia region. . . . Benefield further speculates that the reason why eastern counties may be seeing an uptick “is from millionaires fleeing New York and New Jersey where the tax burden is much higher and targeted at high-income earners.”’

    And this was data from the period before the tax law change and Murphy’s election. I speculate that it is continuing.

    https://www.pennlive.com/news/2019/04/pa-has-more-millionaires-and-you-may-be-surprised-where-they-live.html

  41. Comrade Nom Deplume, mourner says:

    God, I picked the wrong day to drop back in. Lib, did you drop dime on this earlier and I missed it?

    Glad I got to hang with him some up in Boston.

    RIP, Paul.

  42. chicagofinance says:

    He was running a lot of money for his MIL….. someone better pick that up…. Stu…make sure the wife stays on top of that; he was doing a lot of unorthodox stuff, but it worked for him as long as he was monitoring it….. he can’t let that stuff just sit there…. they need to make sure it is vanilla if he is not going to be the mad scientist….

  43. leftwing says:

    Wish schiller had a better breakdown for lo/med/hi for the nyc metro area….

    Beginning at $509k as high is fcuking pointless…..

    My town, 119 homes for sale excluding any foreclosures. Only 12 are beneath $509k. Even better, if one looks at only SFH (no condos) the number is 2. Two houses….everything else, 98% of properties, all grouped in one category.

    Case Schiller stats are pointless for analysis for many NJ towns…just not relevant based on the data cuts.

  44. libturd says:

    I am aware of his financial alchemy. Dude would get up at like 5am to listen to TA forecast podcasts. I followed along a bit that week in CR. His strategy was so low risk, it was akin to playing both red and black on a roulette table without a zero. I just hope he rotated into the correct sector in early August. I will reach out to his wife just to make sure everything is on the up & up.

  45. leftwing says:

    Wow, so sad about Ex….condolences to those of you that knew him personally.

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  47. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    Awful news. His poor family.

  48. TominClifton says:

    re: grim @ 11:16am

    Here in clifton 400k price point looks more like +~4% or so y/y. Zillow (heh) is saying: 07013 home values will increase 4% next year, compared to a 3.7% increase for Clifton as a whole.

    Back to a few days back, I am seeing a lot of NY plates around. Home sold across the street couple months ago and now has two ny state plates in the driveway.

  49. No One says:

    Sorry to hear about ExPat,
    Glad to be reminded that he got to spend some quality time with you in CR, Libturd.

  50. Libturd, seen crazy things done with ping pong balls. says:

    I think he was more in love with the country after one visit than I was. He really didn’t get out much, I guess. That was the first time he flew since before 9-11, so he was astounded by all of the security changes.

  51. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    lol, they are going for it…I guess they realize they already lost the election

  52. 3b says:

    Lib I never would have guessed that. I always assumed he was well
    traveled.

  53. ExEssex says:

    8:01 election is wide open.
    If you think Trump is a lock then I suppose you really must think everyone is stupid.

  54. leftwing says:

    They just can’t help themselves…..are they really so stupid as to not see they are playing exactly into the hand Trump wants them to? Christ, he was openly mocking and taunting them to move forward.

    Crazy newb Leftists….I am no fan of Pelosi, at all, but some times Mom really does know best and you should just shut up and listen to her.

    Going to be hilarious to watch the Dems tie themselves into knots again as he fights subpoenas, blocks witnesses, ultimately wins the impeachment battle, and leaves the Left utterly deflated, yet again.

  55. XRumerTest says:

    Hello. And Bye.

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