C19 Open Discussion Week 55

From ABC 7:

Home prices on Long Island skyrocket due to high demand, low inventory

The median home selling price on Long Island rose by at least $73,000 throughout the last year, according to broker listing database OneKey MLS, due to high buyer demand and low inventory of homes.

“It’s a great time to be a seller,” said real estate agent Christine Tabacco-Weber, with Cold Spring Harbor-based Lucky to Live Here Realty. “It’s a really tough time to be a buyer.”

According to OneKey MLS, the median home sale price in Suffolk County in February 2020 was $402,444, compared to $475,000 in February 2021.

In Nassau County, the median home sale price in February 2020 was $525,000, compared to $600,000 in February 2021, an increase of $75,000.

At the same time, inventory has dropped significantly since this time last year, creating all-out bidding wars between buyers.

She said buyers are paying for seller’s moving costs, closing costs, and even are offering sellers to live in the house by paying rent or staying there completely free for a certain period of time.

“If you want to leave New York, this is the time,” she said. “Your house will probably sell in a weekend.”

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156 Responses to C19 Open Discussion Week 55

  1. Hold my beer says:

    Frist

  2. Hold my beer says:

    Buyers letting sellers rent the house. Sell and squat. Good luck to the buyer evicting the former owner

  3. The Great Pumpkin says:

    People should apply the “Hodl” mindset to real estate right now. This is only getting started.

  4. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I remember back in 2009 when I went to SD and this dude that was from Boca was complaining to me about how south beach was going to sh!t because of the trash coming in (rappers and the like). Guess, it’s only getting worse.

    “Party’s over: Miami Beach closing causeways, imposing spring break South Beach curfew”

    https://apple.news/AtltcYzzoT4WS4HSka51m0g

  5. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Sad, really sad.

  6. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I’m not falling for that value head fake either. Give me the growth.

    “Black­stone Group Inc. be­came an in­vest­ing pow­er­house by mak­ing suc­cess­ful bets on un­der­val­ued com­pa­nies. For the next leg of its ex­pan­sion, the firm is fo­cused on com­pa­nies with big growth prospects, even if it has to pay up for them.”

    “In­vest­ing is about look­ing for­ward, but the fu­ture is now com­ing faster,” he said in an in­ter­view. “You want to be ex­posed to busi­nesses that ben­e­fit from this change.”

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-blackstone-barrels-toward-trillion-dollar-asset-goal-growth-is-in-value-out-11616319002?st=36hliaqqfegpqbu&reflink=article_copyURL_share

  7. Hold my beer says:

    I am not changing my handle to Hodl my beer

  8. BidenIsTheGOAT says:

    Biden can’t walk up steps without falling down. He broke his foot somehow a few weeks back and the propagandists made up a cover story.

    He’s openly mocked by other world leaders. His weak foreign policy is contested and defied just like Obama’s was. He is a sad joke.

  9. Bystander says:

    The meaning of weak is this statement. He practically blew guy on stage.

    “They said they think it’s Russia; I have President Putin, he just said it’s not Russia,”..President Putin was extremely strong and powerful in his denial today.”

  10. Juice Box says:

    Finally! Got my first shot booked at CVS this week.

    Anyone get the Pfizer vaccine?

  11. Juice Box says:

    Jut reading up again on the vaccines. Each Pfizer’s vaccine shot contains 30 micrograms of vaccine while Moderna contains 100 micrograms, initial tests show the Pfizer vaccine is effective against variants but long term studies are needed.

  12. BRT says:

    Lib, I disagree about seasonality. The southern states, even the ones where people predicted doom like Texas and Florida show no increases. NJ is showing a large increase while NYC/CT is not which is very odd. I would expect them to be much more correlated. But as you go down to Maryland and North Carolina, we still don’t see any indications. Arizona, it’s gone. California, gone. Most of these places are approaching summer baseline already. Warm weather is the primary correlation. (Watch for Florida to possibly go up in July like last year because that’s when they go indoors)

    But when you look at NJ, good god, we are the worst (the graph is going parabolic), which is par for the course, because we’ve presided over the worst numbers in the world the entire pandemic. And yes, it’s still out there. My family got it last week, masks on the whole time, no contact with any other families. Lucky for us, we are going to be bailed out by the warm weather.

    On the vaccine front, if the Biden administration were smart, they would immediately divert the vaccine away from places that have minimal cases and send them all to places like NJ to address the alarming numbers. But what are the odds that happens? Fauci, and your infinite wisdom, where are you?

  13. BRT says:

    Jut reading up again on the vaccines. Each Pfizer’s vaccine shot contains 30 micrograms of vaccine while Moderna contains 100 micrograms, initial tests show the Pfizer vaccine is effective against variants but long term studies are needed.

    Immune response is a broad spectrum. Body dismantles most things that looks familiar as you get more exposure. I think you would go from 97% effective to 60% worst case because that’s what we see with the flu. But, we are capable of bringing in booster shots into the fall. Either way, hospitalizations should be much less of an issue moving forward as the vaccine provides the body familiarity with the virus, which the lacking of was the primary issue the past year.

    As far as dosage is concerned, I think it’s too high, which is why you get such bad side effects. It would likely be better administered in smaller doses over more shots IMO. But logistically, that would make rollout that much slower.

  14. BRT says:

    rofl

    John W. Rich (Fake Tech Exec)
    @Cokedupoptions
    Goldman analysts worked 108 hours a week to create synthetic CDOs of corporate debt, when they could’ve spent 5 minutes recommending Bitcoin and made their clients 10,000%

  15. The Great Pumpkin says:

    BRT,

    Nj is a dense state, with multiple generations living in a household in urban
    areas. Throw that into your equation.

  16. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I took the Pfizer last week. No side effects with the first shot.

  17. SmallGovConservative says:

    Bystander says:
    March 21, 2021 at 10:23 am

    “The meaning of weak is this statement…”

    Same characters carrying water for the dangerously incompetent Dems. Not surprising to see another ridiculous comment from By, calling Trump’s measured response a sign of weakness and failing to call out the true weakness of the last Dem prez who watched as Putin invaded the Ukraine and re-inserted Russia into the Middle East to prop up Syria’s dictator after watching Oblama ignore his own red line. Putin vs Slow Joe is such a mismatch it’s not funny. If this past week is any indication — Joe calling Putin names and then bum-stumbling up the steps of AF1, SecState getting pantsed by the Chinese on American soil — this admin is going to completely redefine weakness.

  18. BidenAtLeastNotATreasonableWhinyBtch says:

    SmallGovCon and Goat,

    Say what you want about Biden. At least he is not a narcissistic putin boot licking traitor.

    Now that his grifting is done. He can’t even afford to pay for engine repairs on his 757 that is parked in Stewart Airport.

    Something tells me you are going to see that plane in an episode of “Airplane Repo” in the Discovery Channel

  19. Brt says:

    Nothing’s changed since last summer other than we will have most vaccinated. We will be fine come May. Biden should be diverting more vaccine to NJ instead of virtue signaling.

  20. Hold my beer says:

    Juice

    Be careful. Strictly anecdotal but it may cause you to persistently wax poetically about disruptive technology.

  21. 3b says:

    Juice: I got the first Pfizer shot last. And going back in early April for second. My Daughter tells me that medical researchers in the large medical university she works for, says day before second shot, drink as much water as you can, and the day of continue to drink as much water as you can. This will supposedly minimize side effects from second shot. So when you go to CVS for first shot, you can pick up some Depends for preparation for second shot!!

  22. 3b says:

    Biden should not be taken on the Russians and Chinese at the same time. I don’t care what anyone says China is a far bigger threat to the USA, then Russia.

  23. Bystander says:

    Small calling mushroom dik “measured”..hilarious. Let us know when Biden’s national security advisor calls him a traitor for Putin, like Dumpy’s did. Say it small, one..term..loser.

  24. Fast Eddie says:

    Dems are opportunists, always jumping on the last sound bite as if they’re current and in tune. This week it’s a march for Asians. Is the last “crisis” already dead? What is the last crisis? Do you c0cksuckers even remember? And you leftists need to look up the word traitor… it’s not the right trying to dismiss America and what it stands for. It’s not the right attempting to dismiss history and rewrite the outcome. You long for a contemporary America because it allows anemic souls to fit in. During the campaign, I didn’t find one American flag on the same property of an O’Biden poster. The left want an alternate version of America… one filled with imposters, deceivers, turncoats and whistle-blowers. The left are the quintessential traitors, eager to turn America into a companion state.

  25. Fast Eddie says:

    Trump’s America before the China plague:

    7 million new jobs – more than three times government experts’ projections.
    Middle-Class family income increased nearly $6,000 – more than five times the gains during the entire previous administration.
    The unemployment rate reached 3.5 percent, the lowest in a half-century.
    Achieved 40 months in a row with more job openings than can be filled.
    More Americans reported being employed than ever before – nearly 160 million.
    Jobless claims hit a nearly 50-year low.
    The number of people claiming unemployment insurance as a share of the population hit its lowest on record.
    Incomes rose in every single metro area in the United States for the first time in nearly 3 decades.

    That’s the domestic side. Foreign policy was as equally strong. The O’Biden administration in 60 days has angered our enemies and is being mocked. His covid plan is a continuation of Trump’s plan. The old f.uck can’t put a sentence together and now is struggling to walk straight. He’s a disaster… a weakling… a 50 year politician with puppet strings attached to his feeble body. And just today, Iran is threatening a US Army base and top general. 61 days… no press conference, too.

  26. Fast Eddie says:

    “I’m happy to take questions if that’s what I’m supposed to do.”

    Cut the feed!! Cut the feed!!

    Poor thing is abused.

  27. ExEssex says:

    Trump fan boys are still butt hurt.

  28. ExEssex says:

    Oh Donnnnnnny please golf us out the crisis.

  29. Fast Eddie says:

    It’s O’Biden’s show now and what a f.ucking disaster it is. 50 years, no accomplishments and a man with dementia being abused. You can’t defend him because there’s nothing to defend.

  30. Fast Eddie says:

    Gas prices are up over 25%, North Korea is once again threatening, O’Biden calling out Putin (lol), kissing up to China and there’s a surge at the border. Did you see the kids in kennels?

  31. Fast Eddie says:

    And what’s even scarier is that Carmella is even more clueless than the demented f.cuk as she attempts to sound savvy and in tune with the issues.

  32. NoRideForEddie says:

    Oh boy. Traitor Eddy is disappointed.

    His proctologist told him that if he be let his finger in (just like his priest) he would make sure that he rode TreasonDaddy’s 757. Now he doesn’t get a ride, as plane looks like a jalopy without tires waiting for the repossession truck.

  33. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Pretty sad. All that money, and still don’t want to share.

    “Over­all, the pa­per es­ti­mates that the top 1% of house­holds fail to re­port about 21% of their in­come, with 6 per­cent­age points of that due to so­phis­ti­cated strate­gies that ran­dom au­dits don’t de­tect. For the top 0.1%, un­re­ported in­come may be nearly twice as large as con­ven­tional IRS method­olo­gies would sug­gest, the re­searchers wrote.”

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/high-income-tax-avoidance-far-larger-than-thought-new-paper-estimates-11616364001?st=6bxtzlrkcz3nrgl&reflink=article_copyURL_share

  34. Bystander says:

    Here is history that no one can change..one term loser.

  35. Fast Eddie says:

    The wind blew him off the stairs, that’s the story his handlers are giving you. I think they meant he passed wind.

  36. EddieGotFingerAndDidNotGetABazookaGum says:

    Pumpkin, here is a bigger take from cheating taxes by business owners, more than a half of business owners income is not reported.

    Hell I’m sure Treason Eddie is in a huff because his accountant is TreasonDaddy’s accountant and is forcing him to go legit this year and pay up Uncle Sam, and won’t have anything left for his m3th habit and the usual kick up payments to his boss Little Putin.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/20/opinion/sunday/unpaid-tax-evasion-IRS.html

  37. 3b says:

    Fast: I don’t believe Biden and co are cozying up to China; apparently the talks between both governments were tense. If it’s all theatrics on the Dems we shall see.

  38. njtownhomer says:

    Soon coming to Stewart Airport. MAGA tours to Trump plane, photo booths, golden chair sitting for 1K/min. Perfect opportunity to show your patriotism.

    Monetize this man. It is so easy. Just send Ivanka or Junior to do the honors.

  39. Bystander says:

    Sure Ed. The Falcons were the greatest Super bowl champs if you stop watching in 3rd qtr. Lot of Falcons fans tell me so and they are totally rational and make sense..snicker

  40. The Great Pumpkin says:

    That’s the sad irony from the Republican attacks on the teaching profession. B!tch about your taxes all you want, at least I pay my fair share unlike so many of these scumbags.

    EddieGotFingerAndDidNotGetABazookaGum says:
    March 21, 2021 at 7:22 pm
    Pumpkin, here is a bigger take from cheating taxes by business owners, more than a half of business owners income is not reported.

    Hell I’m sure Treason Eddie is in a huff because his accountant is TreasonDaddy’s accountant and is forcing him to go legit this year and pay up Uncle Sam, and won’t have anything left for his m3th habit and the usual kick up payments to his boss Little Putin.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/20/opinion/sunday/unpaid-tax-evasion-IRS.html

  41. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I haven’t never met a business owner that wasn’t manipulating the system. Not one.

  42. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Shocker. You mean it costs more money with a higher population density? You mean it costs money to support families, education, and the rest of the support system that comes with it? You mean this has nothing to do with nj govt and more to do with the costs of society? Oh, wow.

    Opinion | All those people moving to Texas and Georgia are creating a new set of expectations that’s straining the region politically and economically.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-03-15/texas-and-georgia-need-a-new-economic-model

  43. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Maybe if we get rid of nj unions and pay teachers borderline minimum wage (15 an hour=30,000) with no benefits, then we can have paradise. So simple. So easy.

  44. PumpkinFace says:

    They work way less than 2,000 hours a year so it would be significantly less than $30k. I’m sold

    The Great Pumpkin says:
    March 21, 2021 at 8:57 pm
    Maybe if we get rid of nj unions and pay teachers borderline minimum wage (15 an hour=30,000) with no benefits, then we can have paradise. So simple. So easy.

  45. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Haha…you are so miserable. Root for teachers to make less than 30,000 a year while you cry for schools to open up…

    PumpkinFace says:
    March 21, 2021 at 9:28 pm
    They work way less than 2,000 hours a year so it would be significantly less than $30k. I’m sold

  46. BRT says:

    I’ve collected an extra $170k than I would have relying on the union in the past six years. If you got rid of collective bargaining, I would be able to negotiate beyond the set “maximum” because they can’t fill my job.

  47. The Great Pumpkin says:

    That’s the funny part. Teachers are overpaid, the answer is to lower their pay. Meanwhile, “no one” alerts us to sat tutors making 500 dollar an hour. Yet, fast Eddie will go on and on about catholic school teachers teaching since sept at slave wage rates. Good husband, letting your wife get raped for her time. It’s for the children, right? I said, right?

  48. The Great Pumpkin says:

    3b types cry about property taxes while at the same time enjoying that cheap blue ribbon education. Go ahead, let’s privatize it. So you are paying 500 an hour for a blue ribbon education. Some people don’t understand how good they have it..

  49. PumpkinFace says:

    i havnt cried for schools open up moron

  50. The Great Pumpkin says:

    How would special needs kids get an education under a privatized educational system? How would parents afford it?

  51. njtownhomer says:

    Check the rankings
    https://worldpopulationreview.com/state-rankings/public-school-rankings-by-state

    not everything is about tax dollars. Think good education as a bit of future earnings.
    There are far bigger holes in this state.

  52. PumpkinFace says:

    The #2 ranked state spends 15% less than the #3 NJ does … how much does the #1 spend?

    njtownhomer says:
    March 21, 2021 at 10:26 pm
    Check the rankings
    https://worldpopulationreview.com/state-rankings/public-school-rankings-by-state

    not everything is about tax dollars. Think good education as a bit of future earnings.
    There are far bigger holes in this state.

  53. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Which location costs more to do business? Now why? Until then, please keep your nonsense to yourself.

  54. The Great Pumpkin says:

    All your tax dollars are being robbed blind, and this only happens in NJ. Yes, sure.

  55. ExEssex says:

    If you find yourself getting a generous bonus for
    Your employer. Note: the Gubmint takes 1/2.

  56. PumpkinFace says:

    if the taxes were lower, would it cost less to do business?

    The Great Pumpkin says:
    March 21, 2021 at 10:45 pm
    Which location costs more to do business? Now why? Until then, please keep your nonsense to yourself.

  57. njtownhomer says:

    Perhaps our representatives could do a better job instead of a lot of trading activity
    even with options.

    https://twitter.com/unusual_whales/status/1373839294973018116

    1/2 Congressman Gottheimer is absolutely an incredible options trader.

    He’s been selling calls at peaks on $MSFT all 2021, & seemingly buying back the contracts on dips.

    This in blocks of $250,000 – $5,000,000, which is incredible size given the amount of $MSFT shares he owns.

    2/2 For ex, on 02-12 he sold 500k $MSFT $160 strike expiring 06/18/2021.

    On that same day, he bought deep ITM calls of $1M-5M at $145 expiring 03/19/2021.

    The whale caught both of his movements as well.
    I have truly never seen anything like this.

    https://unusualwhales.com/i_am_the_senate

  58. 3b says:

    Pumps Please make the call for help as I suggested a week or so ago. You are getting worse everyday.

  59. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Which came first: the chicken or the egg?

    PumpkinFace says:
    March 21, 2021 at 11:42 pm
    if the taxes were lower, would it cost less to do business?

  60. Chicago says:

    Obviously your students don’t come first

  61. BidenIsTheGOAT says:

    Biden is Hindenburg circa 1933. Corrupt and compromised, in failed health with radicals pulling the levers of power behind the scenes.

    And we are the Weimar Republic hurtling toward catastrophe.

  62. BRT says:

    If you believe in evolution, then the egg obviously preceded the chicken by a few billion years.

  63. Bystander says:

    Could be true GOAT but it was handed over on fire by a crazy raccoon tanned d&pshit. Most of us are not cult members so deluded with Orange spectacles that things were ‘greatest ever’ right before they were not. We have decades of problems and constantly printing our way out to keep peace. Dumpy was the worst of them all. Fact.

  64. SmallGovConservative says:

    Bystander says:
    March 21, 2021 at 7:50 pm

    “Small calling mushroom dik…”

    Why can’t you Joe-blowers stick to the topic? I called out your non-sensical statement that Trump was weak on Russia by pointing out the truly weak nature of our last Dem prez’s foreign policy, and the disastrous first two months of the current Dem prez. Russia and Iran were completely neutralized by Trump — no adventurism, no trouble-making — but are back in the saddle again now that Slow Joe and his limp-wristed minions occupy the WH. No problem for you guys that take political direction from your wives though, you wanted to be governed by Harris/Pelosi/AOC and you got your way.

  65. BidenIsTheGOAT says:

    No, bystanders, that is the propaganda spin.

    Below all of the bluster, there wee commitment to some petty fundamentals things you need to have a democratic country such as territorial integrity, fair trade, free speech.

    The left and the propaganda failed to acknowledge that he was elected on valid issues and the breakdown accelerated.

  66. Fast Eddie says:

    Democrats have no resume.

  67. BidenIsTheGOAT says:

    Turn on the leftist media and they promote racial hatred nearly non stop. And they claim to be anti racist. It’s 1984.

  68. NitwitsWillBeNitwits says:

    Is 10AM, Do you know where your schizophrenic three stooges are?

    They are here, morning Small, Goat, and Traitor Eddie.

    Is about about to be 10:45am, time for watching Fox News as you get you Scr0tum Electroshock Therapy.

  69. SmallGovConservative says:

    Yet another of Trump’s contributions — calling out modern day ‘journalism’ for what it is: fake news. Where’s the outcry over the Joe’s ban on reporting from the southern border from NYT, etc.., you know they would’ve been screaming if Trump had ordered it.

    https://www.foxnews.com/media/photojournalist-biden-media-access-border-patrol-operations

  70. BidenIsTheGOAT says:

    It’s completely fake news.

    You can try to burn down and blow up federal buildings for months and the propagandists call it protesting. One riot at the capital and they call it an insurrection.

    Leave the border wide open in the middle of a pandemic and don’t even acknowledge a problem or blame someone else.

  71. Fast Eddie says:

    3,314 kids are now in cages. If children suffer for the betterment of the democrat party… oh well.

  72. libturd says:

    Because the kids weren’t suffering from where they came from? Could you imagine the strength these 3,314 parents have that were willing to allow their kids to cross the border for a better life without them? Ay carumba!

    Shame there’s no money for more judges to process them among the 300 billion in pork.

  73. Phoenix says:

    Eddie,

    You have to laugh at how Biden is now calling the border issue Trump’s fault. Old goat has a real problem on his hands now.

    Calling Putin a killer- not the smartest move. Especially with Americas track record of neutralizing those unwanted around the world. Occasionally taking some innocents and calling it “collateral damage.”

    The hypocrisy of America is coming back to bite it full circle. If you want to be the leader of the “free world” then you have to set an example so the rest of the world would want to follow it.

    Now America has become a country of whining Karens whose only skills and abilities are to purchase items on Amazon and Uber eats.

    The core is rotten. Unless you can find some way to strengthen the core America is going to fall just like every other empire.

    Gen Z is going to have their work cut out for them.

  74. Phoenix says:

    Because the kids weren’t suffering from where they came from?

    And maybe if America stopped meddling in other countries affairs with regime change, financial blackmail, and constant meddling maybe things would level out on their own.

  75. Phoenix says:

    “Shame there’s no money for more judges to process them among the 300 billion in pork.”

    Maybe they should all go to Costa Rica. I heard it’s nice there this time of year. Great place to live with wonderful benefits as well.

  76. Bystander says:

    Hah, calling out fake news in journalism while posting fox new article. Truly delusional. I am all for calling out half truths and sensationalism all around but your source has always been the worst of the sort. Cling to their BS as truth. Separating kids from parents was the difference that was called out. We all know kids have been in “cages” for decades. Stop the flow by punishing the people hiring them along with border security. Dumpy needed enemies to sell to R sheep though. Corporatocracy is your problem – trying to change the low wage game while not causing massive pricing fluctuations that will cripple economy. No side wants to address it. Keep looking for your left boogeyman though.

  77. Fast Eddie says:

    Gen Z is going to have their work cut out for them.

    They founded the Cancel Culture, don’t count on them, they’re clueless. The only hope is when they start eating their own because there’s nothing left to consume.

  78. Phoenix says:

    Eddie,
    But they will be alive long after you are gone.

    Unless Biden starts WW3.

  79. Libturd says:

    Phoenix,

    “Maybe they should all go to Costa Rica. I heard it’s nice there this time of year. Great place to live with wonderful benefits as well.”

    They really should go to Costa Rica. Lord knows, they will be treated better there than here. If you hire a Nicaraguan, they better have a permit. If not, and you are caught, the fine is 10 times the wage you paid. You also must pay their social security wages as if they were a citizen. There are minimum salaries to be paid too. It’s a very civil and compassionate system. If Costa Rican unemployment tops 10% (which it does now), they then put quotas in place. Anyone can apply for a work permit. This policy is one of the many reasons I plan to move down there. Someone will need to help the D for the rest of his life. I can hire someone to do this for less than $400 a month, legally and responsibly. To do the same thing in a third world country like America would require me to find someone and pay them off of the books (most likely a Russian immigrant). If the caretaker needed medical care, they would just head to the hospital for their free healthcare. No social security would be paid. It would probably cost me closer to 3K a month.

  80. Hold my beer says:

    Biden’s aides want to spend another 3 trillion on infrastructure and other things to help the economy and fight climate change.

    Good thing more and more transactions are becoming digital, otherwise in a few years you’d need a wheelbarrow full of cash to buy a soda.

  81. Hold my beer says:

    Summer JJ style

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/why-scientists-think-summer-stis-111628078.html

    When will super clap get its own comic book and tent pole movie?

  82. chicagofinance says:

    I disagree. I think the idea is to spend the aid directly in the migrants home countries so they won’t come. However, don’t filter it through corrupt governments who will siphon everything off. Have direct in-kind programs a la Doctors-Without-Borders, with strong messaging such as don’t come to America unless you are invited….. winning a Green Card Lottery is an invitation.

    Phoenix says:
    March 22, 2021 at 11:29 am
    Because the kids weren’t suffering from where they came from?

    And maybe if America stopped meddling in other countries affairs with regime change, financial blackmail, and constant meddling maybe things would level out on their own.

  83. The Great Pumpkin says:

    The misperception regarding New Jersey’s true past, present and future standing in the research and development universe appear grounded in a narrative that should have recognized the array of talent here that will continue to lead the state in not only the life sciences but in a variety of research categories.

    New Jersey remains at the forefront of R&D and technological and medical advances on which the world relies. Whether advancing human health through our vibrant life sciences community or leading the global telecommunications industry, our state continues to expand its rich innovation legacy, which counts the first steam locomotive, submarine and light bulb, and medical advances like tetracycline and innovative preparations of antimicrobial packaged medical devices.

    With more scientists and engineers per square mile than anywhere else, New Jersey’s contributions to improving the human condition and driving technology have saved and improved countless lives. Buttressed by our world-class research universities, five medical schools and 43 teaching hospitals, New Jersey’s life sciences R&D sector has a strong pipeline of talent and clinical research facilities that equal any in the world. Add to that the nearly 800 clinical trials involving 17,000 patients statewide, generating $800 million annually — only part of the life sciences’ $83 billion-plus annual economic impact on New Jersey’s economy (13% of the state’s GDP).

    https://www.nj.com/opinion/2021/03/innovation-flourishes-here-in-new-jersey-opinion.html

  84. renter says:

    > Say what you want about Biden. At least he is not a narcissistic putin boot licking traitor.

    Actually, it is factually not true.
    T. was not calling P. names, but sanctioned “Severnyi Potok-2” to a full halt.
    And pressured Germans to stop it.
    Supported Ukraine and gave them weapons (something O. won’t do).
    In fact, T policies and _actions_ were extremely tough on Russia,
    much tougher than prev admin.

    After couple weeks of B. being in the office – SP2 was allowed to continue
    by B. It is a huge political and economic win for P.
    It is really hard to overestimate the value of this.

    Also, killing american oil industry is the best gift possible.
    Oil is up, natural gas is up – huge amount of money for P.

    So, what we have is:
    T – no swearing, but very efficient actions;
    B – helpless name-calling, but immense favors.

    So yes, B is a P-boot-licking traitor.

  85. JCer says:

    Trump is an a$$hole and Biden sucks, can we move on, it just gets worse and worse and worse, in 4 years this country will elect a Kardashian as president(I’m sorry Kanye, it isn’t going to be you). On Russia, what the Dems are missing is that Russia is not our natural enemy, they are not an existential threat, CHINA IS. In terms of actions Trump was tougher on Russia than his predecessor.

    Pumps, NJ’s halcyon days are behind it, yes we used to have Bell Labs, all the best Pharma co’s, etc. That has been changing the facilities are leaving, innovation is slowing. All the drug cos moved their cutting edge research to MA and CA, the same is true of technology even NYC proper has more tech research than NJ. Progressive government and public sector unions killed the proverbial goose that laid the golden egg. Once they put the income tax in in the 70’s and started an all out assault on corporations companies have been shrinking their footprint in NJ. The talent pool and immigrants are the only reason the state has fared as well as it has because we have a good market for talent and we have immigrant groups very comfortable in this area. We are still somewhat competitive with NY. Pumps please provide examples of innovation occurring after the introduction of the income tax, lets say 1980 onward to account for the time it took to digest the changes. Then lets look at the number of patents being generated year over year in NJ, I suspect the number of non-trivial patents have been going down for at least the last 30 years, how does it compare to MA or CA?

    I have a lot more money tied up in NNJ and NYC area real estate(a 6k sqft house on 2 acres, jersey city apartment, partnership interest in a bunch of commercial property) than you so obviously I’d love if what you are saying is true but realistically NYC will continue to be the US financial capital thus providing some stability but the situation is different even 25 years ago NJ was a slam dunk place to buy property. I’m good at my current basis but the way things are selling NOW, I wouldn’t be inclined to invest a bunch of money in NJ at the moment, too much downside risk and we are possibly the worst run state in the Union with a really bad tax climate to boot. For the most part besides the JC apartment it’s all performing so income is gravy and the tax consequences of selling any of it make no sense.

  86. joyce says:

    https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2021/03/njs-june-primary-elections-will-be-conducted-primarily-in-person-murphy-says.html

    I don’t understand. Is there some political component to this? There was another article today saying since cases are trending upward so don’t expect the loosening of restrictions anytime soon (but not rescinding the increase from 35% to 50% which just happened). I want to understand the science and math.

  87. 3b says:

    Chgo: That won’t happen as it would be viewed as a colonialist/ racist mentality on our part if we claimed the governments were not capable of investing the money to benefit their people, rather than stealing it. We have been giving money for years and it makes no difference. When an earthquake leveled large parts of Managua the capital city of Nicaragua in the 70s we sent millions in aid and reconstruction money; the Somoza family stole it. It’s sad, but most of these countries have been unstable and run by dictators since independence from Spain.

  88. JCer says:

    3b I wouldn’t trust our government with a whack of cash either. Nothing colonial or racist about it, if you take a place that’s dirt poor and infuse it with hard capital, corruption is sure to follow it’s human nature….

    Not only were these places very unstable even when run by Spain, it was a basketcase country by the time the 18th century comes around Spain is in steep decline and the colonies are largely lawless being run by their local governors. Independence in these countries was just making the status quo official. You are fighting 400 odd years of what amounts to banditry. The situation is not too different in Southern Italy.

  89. libturd says:

    Joyce,

    Murphy is afraid of someone stealing his election.

  90. Juice Box says:

    Lib – Took out the smoker cleaned it up and it’s ready to go for the season. I going to smoke 5 lbs of Brisket. Any tips?

    Butcher paper? Yes or No
    Special Rub or Traditional?

  91. 3b says:

    Jcer: True. Even PR is a mess, and has been for years and that’s being a self run US colony for 120 years. Corruption is rampant, and the Federal government has turned a blind eye for years due to being afraid of being accused of treating PR like a colony incapable of governing themselves. There is a push now for statehood, if that happens I would expect a low level insurgency by groups in PR that are opposed to statehood.

  92. Brt says:

    Juice, I marinate it in Beet juice for a deep purplish reddish color.

  93. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Hos­pi­tals that have pub­lished their pre­vi­ously con­fi­den­tial prices to com­ply with a new fed­eral rule have also blocked that in­for­ma­tion from web searches with spe­cial cod­ing em­bed­ded on their web­sites, ac­cord­ing to a Wall Street Jour­nal ex­am­i­na­tion.

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/hospitals-hide-pricing-data-from-search-results-11616405402?st=4a1ktk18mexfhjt&reflink=article_imessage_share

  94. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Check out this article from USA TODAY:

    ‘It’s fever-pitched’: Miami Beach to extend state of emergency after more than 1,000 arrested amid spring break

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/news/2021/03/22/spring-break-2021-miami-beach-state-of-emergency-curfew-covid/4797382001/

  95. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “Here’s more proof that luxury real estate in Manhattan is rebounding.
    A new report indicates a 60% increase in contracts signed on luxury homes in the Big Apple during the first quarter of 2021 as compared to the same pre-pandemic time period in 2020. The findings, released Monday from Olshan Realty, suggest that buyers are banking on Manhattan’s comeback.”

    “The demand for luxury homeownership continues to skyrocket outside of New York City as well. Real estate brokerage firm Redfin reported on a January survey that interest in seven-figure homes reached a record high for the month, noting more than 10% of home searches on its website were filtered by users at a starting price of $1 million – up 8.5% from 2020.”

    https://apple.news/AnSz1v-_lSmCsXyAPcXIohA

  96. The Great Pumpkin says:

    No supply…

    “Existing home sales fell sharply in February, as supply dropped by the largest amount on record”

    https://apple.news/AUeIwZm_-R7yTGwA0RCVeUg

  97. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “That tight supply continues to fuel home prices, which were 15.8% higher in February year over year. The median price of an existing home sold during the month was $313,000. That is the highest February price on record. Prices are rising due to bidding wars for homes, but the median was also skewed higher because more sales are occurring on the higher end of the market.

    Sales of homes priced above $1 million were 81% higher compared with a year ago. Houses priced between $100,000 and $250,000 fell 11%.”

  98. Juice Box says:

    BRT – re: Beet Juice..

    overnight?

  99. Libturd says:

    Juice, (breaking this up due to moderation).

    Brisket can be both the easiest and hardest cut of meat to smoke well. You don’t want to hear this, but a brisket that’s under about 8 pounds is tougher to be successful with than a p@cker (usually 12 to 18 pounds). You most likely have a flat, which is the part of the brisket that holds together better and holds up to slicing better. It’s also harder to make tender as it has less fat. If somehow you bought the world’s smallest packer (point and flat), trim the fat cap down so it’s no thicker than 1/4 inch at any point. Your smoker will appreciate it (less grease to clean up) and your heart will as well.

  100. Libturd says:

    This is how I do it. The night before the smoke, marinate the brisket in 2 cups beef broth
    1/4 cup Worcestersh1re sauce
    1 tablespoon onion powder
    1 tablespoon garlic powder
    1 teaspoon cayenne pepper
    1/2 teaspoon black pepper

  101. Libturd says:

    Before smoking, take brisket out of marinade and wipe it dry and let it sit half hour to get up to room temperature. Contrary to popular practice, you need not put mustard or oil on brisket to hold the rub. It holds just fine from the moisture of the meat.

  102. Libturd says:

    With brisket, you really need a lot of rub to make the kind of bark that separates an am@teur from a pro. Try to avoid there being too much salt if you are making it yourself. My preferred store bought brands are Plowboys (traditional) and Oakridge Black Ops (has chocolate and coffee in it).

  103. Libturd says:

    Since your brisket is tiny, I would smoke it at 215 tops. Anything higher and you’ll make a steak out of it. Once the smoker is up to temp and you got the blue/gray smoke going, put the brisket in fat side up and put a probe in the thickest part of it. Also have a probe measuring the temperature of the smoker. The water pan should have your favorite dark beer in it. Nothing lighter than a lager. Stouts and porters work best IMO. That’s it. Wait for 200 on the brisket probe and keep the smoker temp as consistent as possible. If you are burning mesquite or hickory, open the vents up after 4 hours as it will get too bitter otherwise. I do my briskets in a combination of 3 parts almond or apple and one part mesquite of hickory. You only need to smoke it for the first half of the cook. A lot of people finish their briskets in the oven inside.

    The stall will occur around 160 degrees. This is when most people ruin their briskets as they either crank up the heat to get through it or do the Texas Crutch which ruins the bark in exchange for a shorter cook time. I never ever do it anymore. I just wait it out. Once the tough meat stops trying to cool itself, it’ll give in and will finish cooking quite quickly. I find that the slower and longer it takes, the better it ends up being. When probe reads 200 and you can slide the probe into a new spot and the meat feels like butter, it’s ready to be wrapped in paper. Honestly, any paper will do. Even Wax Paper. Whatever you use will just become a greasy mess anyway. Then take an old towel and wrap it around the paper. Put the bundle of smoked joy into a picnic cooler and close the lid and let it sit for at least one hour or until it’s time to eat. It will stay burning hot for hours when wrapped in paper and a towel. Just keep that towel away from dogs as they’ll eat it. For there are few things worse than pulling a towel out of your pooches bottom. Cut it against the grain with a sharpened thin blade. I mark the meat with a quick slice in the edge before I rub it so I can tell which way the grain ran when it’s done and covered in bark.

    Good luck and just wait out the stall. That’s a little brisket, so it shouldn’t be too bad. Get some rye bread and good seedy dijon and you’ll be in heaven.

    Let me know how it goes. I’m cooking up a 17 pounder on Thursday. A family up the block has Covid so we are on the meal train and everyone loves my q.

    For those with Restaurant Depot membership, they have spare ribs for 1.69 a pound. These need a little extra trimming, but that means more burnt candied ends. You’ll never see ribs at this price again. They are packaged 2 racks per sealed bag or about $8 a rack.

  104. ExEssex says:

    Best thing to do with a brisket? Crock pot.

  105. Juice Box says:

    LIB – WOW!

    We are doing a 6lb flat. I am trimming the fat off so perhaps 5lbs, not too thin as you advise. 215 temp tops with hickory chips. Smoker is a wifi Charbroil I bought a few years ago, works ok, App reminds me etc when to do things.

    I am going to inject marinade made with beef broth every inch or so using a a similar marinade you reccomend. I like mine a little sweeter, maybe add some brown sugar too, 24 hour marinade should do it right.

    I have read about wrapping with butcher paper or foil to retain moisture once it gets to 165 F, it’s going to be a “small” 5lbs, gonna think about it a bit more, cannot really go wrong with more juice however.

    Thanks for the advice as always.

  106. Libturd says:

    Here’s the absolutely most important part. Your past it already. When buying a brisket, get the floppiest one you can find. If it’s willing to wrap over your arm like a waiter’s towel, it’s gonna be a winner. There’s a lot of science to this. Brisket is the leanest cut of beef in the cow. You need as much fat marbling as is possible to get the softest meat. If it flops, you had a fat, lazy cow. If it holds up like a board, you found a tomboy and the meat will stay tough.

    You don’t need to marinate the meet if you inject. Works the same way. I’ve done both. Gains in flavor from injection are not worth the effort, though competition smokers swear by it. I don’t like to punch holes in my meat.

    Have fun.

  107. ExEssex says:

    Two Words: Crock Pot.

  108. ExEssex says:

    Billionaire Leon Black, co-founder of one of Wall Street’s most prominent investment firms, unexpectedly stepped down early from his position as chief executive of Apollo Global Management on Monday, the latest in a series of moves following an inquiry into his ties to the disgraced financier Jeffrey Epstein.

    Apollo Global Management announced that Black will be leaving immediately, citing health issues he and his wife are experiencing. The company had announced in January that Black would be stepping down as chief executive before 31 July.

    Black will also no longer be keeping his role as chairman, a role he was planning to keep when his departure was first announced in January. Marc Rowan, a co-founder of the company, is Apollo’s new chief executive while Jay Clayton, former Securities and Exchange Commission chair, will be chairman of the company.

  109. Brt says:

    Juice, yes, I usually do it overnight. I also put it in a spray bottle with apple cider vinegar for spraying during the smoking process. It gives the smoke ring color a deep red. More for visual presentation but people will think it tastes better just based off the color. It’s like a magic trick

  110. BRT says:

    Btw, my favorite wood for smoking is pecan.

  111. Hold my beer says:

    Née daily COVID cases keep dropping in Texas, and we are now almost 2 weeks into the end of the mask mandate. I really think the number of people who have had COVID in Texas is 4-5 times the number that tested positive

    https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/coronavirus/covid-19-report-965-cases-13-deaths-announced-in-tarrant-county-monday/2586254/

  112. BRT says:

    Hold,

    this is the case for every warm weather state right now. They are nearly down to summer baselines or quickly approaching it. Mask mandates don’t matter much right now in that climate. Mandates themselves, don’t really matter at all. Human behavior does. If you recall last year, warm weather states started to spike in July when people are more likely to seek shelter indoors. It’s a race for the vaccine at that point.

    NJ on the other hand is going parabolic with a mask mandate. Warmer weather can’t come soon enough here. Maybe Osterholm was right about a category 4 hurricane…maybe it only hits the Northeast.

  113. Fast Eddie says:

    She said buyers are paying for seller’s moving costs, closing costs, and even are offering sellers to live in the house by paying rent or staying there completely free for a certain period of time.

    “If you want to leave New York, this is the time,” she said. “Your house will probably sell in a weekend.”

    It seems this is true for the entire NY/NJ/CT area. I see more and more houses on main roads up for sale under contract in a few days where in the past, they may have lingered. Anything on a quiet street is gone in 24 to 48 hours. If you’re near retirement, have decent equity and/or moving out of this area, it’s a nice score. I do feel for younger couples, though. I remember the insane bidding wars and the bullsh1t listening to ex hairdressers turned home tour guides.

  114. Trick says:

    Picked up a kamado joe at the end of last summer, it replaced my electric smoker and 15yr old webber. Best grill I have ever owned. Can run it between 200 and 650 degrees and hold’s 225 all day. Use it 3 times a week, burgers, chicken, steak, pizza and as a smoker. When your done just close the vents and it keeps the unused lump charcoal until the next burn.

  115. JCer says:

    On a small flat brisket, season it than braise in beef broth in a pressure cooker for about an hour than crisp the fat cap under the broiler for 10 minutes or so. Makes a great sandwich and it’s super easy and fast. Even the toughest brisket gets pliable in the pressure cooker. You can even reduce and thicken the broth to make a great sauce. The method works great for short ribs, brisket, even a chuck roast can work in a pinch.

  116. Libturd says:

    Trick – Those are pretty cool. I never messed with one though, though a lot of people have success with them.

    Essexex – Brisket in the crockpot is fine, but it’s not the same thing. Same principle of low and slow for fat to break down into oil and cook the meat around it, but there is no smoke flavor and it turns to mush. Brisket isn’t the most flavorful cut, hence it loves the smoke. Beef ribs, on the other hand, don’t even need smoke. They are simply awesome in their beefiness.

    BRT – yes, when I wrote almond, I meant pecan. Almond is my secret fish smoking wood. I also use alder for whiter meats. For ribs though, apple and cherry mixed, kicks ass.

  117. 3b says:

    Fast: it’s a wonderful time to sell , for the greedy boomers, but its wrong what the young couples have to go through, and in the end they will get screwed.

  118. chicagofinance says:

    Love At First Sight (grim Edition):

    WSJ
    Hospitals Hide Prices on Web, Undermining Disclosure Rule

    Hospitals that have published their previously confidential prices to comply with a new federal rule have also blocked that information from web searches with special coding embedded on their websites, according to a Wall Street Journal examination.

    The information must be disclosed under a federal rule aimed at making the $1 trillion sector more consumer friendly. But hundreds of hospitals embedded code in their websites that prevented Alphabet Inc.’s Google and other search engines from displaying pages with the price lists, according to the Journal examination of more than 3,100 sites.

    The code keeps pages from appearing in searches, such as those related to a hospital’s name and prices, computer-science experts said. The prices are often accessible other ways, such as through links that can require clicking through multiple layers of pages.

    “It’s technically there, but good luck finding it,” said Chirag Shah, an associate professor at the University of Washington who studies human interactions with computers. “It’s one thing not to optimize your site for searchability, it’s another thing to tag it so it can’t be searched. It’s a clear indication of intentionality.”

    Among websites where the Journal found the blocking code were those for some of the biggest U.S. healthcare systems and some of the largest hospitals in cities including New York and Philadelphia. They include hospitals owned by HCA Healthcare Inc., Universal Health Services Inc., the University of Pennsylvania Health System and NYU Langone Health. Some regional systems also had such code on their websites, including Michigan’s Beaumont Health and Novant Health in Winston-Salem, N.C.

    Penn Medicine, NYU Langone and Novant Health said that they used blocking code to direct patients first to information they considered more useful than raw pricing data for which they also included links. Universal Health uses the blocking code to ensure consumers acknowledge a disclosure statement before

    By Tom McGinty, Anna Wilde Mathews and Melanie Evans

    “We are making NO efforts to hide any information,” Ms. Crawford wrote in an email.

    After the Journal approached hospitals about its findings, the search-blocking code was removed from sites including those of HCA, Penn Medicine and Beaumont, and of South Dakota-based Avera Health, Tennessee-based Ballad Health, Maine’s Northern Light Health and Gundersen Health System in Wisconsin.

    An HCA spokesman said the search blocker was “a legacy code that we’ve removed.” Avera, Ballad, Beaumont and Northern Light said the code had been left on their websites by mistake. A Gundersen Health System spokesman said a website vendor had inserted the code.

    Computer-science experts said such code can be used during webpage development to prevent search engines from storing an incomplete copy as a backup, known as a cached copy.

    The code is typically removed when a page is completed, experts said. Some hospital owners said they had recently completed their pricing- data pages to comply with the rule.

    Hospitals are supposed to disclose price information that they have long kept secret to comply with a federal rule that took effect Jan. 1 as part of a Trump administration push to increase transparency in healthcare pricing. For the first time, the rule is revealing the prices that insurers negotiate for many hospital services.

    These prices have been opaque, even to employers and consumers who pay for coverage, and can vary widely depending on who pays.

    Federal officials who developed the regulation said the data could help consumers to find better deals and help doctors and employers to select the hospitals where they steer patients for service.

    The use of blocking code is one way hospitals have fallen short of the rule’s requirements, experts on the new regulation said.

    “They’re taking an active step to make something harder to find,” said Thomas Barker, a healthcare attorney at Foley Hoag and former official at the Department of Health and Human Services. “I would say it violates the spirit of the rule.”

    The rule requires hospitals to release prices for all services. Hospitals typically have a sticker price, which can be a starting point for discounted rates they negotiate with insurers. Hospitals also have cash prices for the uninsured. The new regulation requires disclosure of those rates, in addition to the insurers’ prices.

    The rule also says that the data file with all of the rates has to be displayed prominently on a public website, and that a hospital has to ensure the data “are easily accessible and without barriers.”

    Hospitals that violate the rule face a penalty of up to $300 a day.

    “We expect hospitals to comply with these requirements and will enforce these rules to make sure Americans know the cost of their healthcare in advance,” an HHS spokesman said.

    To identify webpages hidden from search results, the Journal wrote a program that read the contents of 3,190 disclosure pages whose addresses were provided by Turquoise Health Co., a startup working with the price-transparency data. The program searched for a tag in the pages’ background coding that instructs search engines not to index the page.

    The Journal found 164 web-pages hosting disclosure files for 307 hospitals that contained versions of that blocking syntax. Some pages include information for more than one hospital within a system. The code was removed from pages with data for 182 hospitals after the Journal contacted their owners.

    Turquoise, which has searched for price disclosures on the websites of U.S. hospitals since Jan. 1, has found that many facilities are falling short of compliance with the new rule.

    Some 45% of the 2,267 short-term, children’s and rural hospitals that Turquoise has rated so far scored a three or lower on the company’s five-point rating of compliance. Many hospitals with low ratings disclosed only sticker prices for procedures, not actual rates negotiated with insurers.

    Some hospitals list prices in spots on their websites that require many scrolls or clicks to reach. That can make the information hard to find, computer- science experts said.

    UPMC, a 40-hospital system based in Pittsburgh, has placed the price lists on each hospital’s website, which can require seven clicks to reach from UPMC.com. A user navigates through links with labels including “Locations,” “Hospitals,” “Patients & Visitors,” and “Patient Information” to reach them. UPMC, which removed blocking code from price-data websites for two hospitals after the Journal reached out, didn’t include the negotiated commercial rates for insurers in its data. The health system did offer other data points required under the rule, such as sticker prices and cash prices.

    A UPMC spokesman said that navigation of its site is consistent with that of other health-system websites, and that it only takes around three clicks to get to the data from the webpages for individual hospitals. He said UPMC is watching how other hospitals and regulators respond to the rule’s requirements. The blocking code was on the hospital sites in error, he said. —Rob Barry contributed to this article

  119. chicagofinance says:

    I am a reasonable man with modest expectations.

    I recommend Pumps to read the following passage, understand its implications, and render future opinions consistent with the rationale explained here. Otherwise. you are commanded to STFU for the rest of recorded human history.

    WSJ
    Market Reshuffle Has Room to Run

    Things look good for cyclicals as rising rates affect companies at different stages of maturity differently

    The economy’s prospects are looking up, but so are interest rates. That has been roiling the stock market, hammering the shares of the fast-growing companies that, until recently, were investors’ favorites while sending the shares of companies that didn’t do as well during the pandemic higher.

    To understand why, think of the two major elements that go into evaluating what an investment is worth. First, you need to consider how much money you expect it will provide in the years ahead. Next, since cash today is worth more than hoped-for cash tomorrow, you need to apply a discount rate—typically the yield on the 10year Treasury note, plus a premium for the risk you are taking on—to that expectation.

    Changes in both growth assumptions and the discount rate can have big effects on valuation, and that might offer a clue to why the stock market’s deck has been reshuffled so violently, points out Robert Barbera, the director of the Center for Financial Economics at Johns Hopkins University.

    The stocks that were among the best performers last year were the shares of companies that investors expect to grow strongly into the far-off future. The pandemic didn’t put a dent in their businesses, and in some cases even pushed sales higher. Think of companies such as Apple, Netflix and Amazon. com . By the same token, the end of the pandemic, and the combined effects of the substantial savings households built up over the past year and the latest round of support from the government, might not improve their growth prospects. Their business might even be in for a bit of a hangover.

    Shares of these companies struggled this year, as the yield on the 10-year Treasury pushed to 1.73%—and looks likely to go higher still if the hoped-for recovery comes true.

    To see why, consider the valuation of a company that is expected to increase its earnings by 20% a year for the next 25 years. Say it now earns $1 a share, and investors are putting a discount rate of 6% on its future earnings. A standard discounted cash-flow analysis would place a value of about $182 on those future earnings. Now imagine that the yield on the 10year Treasury note goes up by 2 percentage points and the discount rate on future earnings is bumped up to 8% as a result. The value of those earnings drops to about $129.

    Now consider a more middling, cyclical company—a manufacturer, say, with earnings that fluctuate with the economy, and that have lately been expected by investors to grow by 5% over the long haul. With a discount rate of 6%, its future earnings are valued at about $22. Now imagine that a revival in the economy pushes Treasury yields up, sending its discount rate to 8%. But the better economy prompts investors to raise their long-term growth expectations for the company to 8%—not necessarily because its long-term outlook has brightened specifically, but because rising growth fuels optimism. Now the expected value of that company’s future earnings is $25.

    The cyclical companies that could fall under this rubric—industrial conglomerates, retailers, capital- equipment makers, airlines— vastly outnumber the handful of big companies that drove the stock market’s performance last year. The upheaval in the stock market may have only just begun.

    —Justin Lahart

  120. Disruptive Technology says:

    Clearly, you know knowing about me! Got dam, simple as that.

  121. Fast Eddie says:

    3b,

    Young couples are screwed unless Mom and Dad help out. That seems to be the only way to score a big enough down payment on a house. Some of us (maybe most of us) live rather modestly and don’t require much. I don’t go on vacations too often and don’t buy big ticket items really so I presume whatever I have is mostly going to the family when I croak. I basically exist to earn a paycheck and play the facility maintenance role. lol.

  122. 3b says:

    Fast: in my humble opinion you should live a little more , at least when you get the college thing out of the way, and I don’t know where you are on that.

    As for down payments from parents, don’t kid yourself, a lot of people away from their house don’t have a whole lot in savings. And the number of 50 and 60 somethings with mortgages and home equity loans is increasing at least as of numbers from last year. I feel for these younger couples. My wife was able to stay home for years when kids were young; that ability is almost gone today for those who might wish to do it. Some people cheer it on, I think it’s sad. I think we are going backwards instead of forward.

  123. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Chi,

    Makes sense. So it’s prob a good short term move to invest in the following? Any industry that you specifically like?

    “The cyclical companies that could fall under this rubric—industrial conglomerates, retailers, capital- equipment makers, airlines— vastly outnumber the handful of big companies that drove the stock market’s performance last year. The upheaval in the stock market may have only just begun.”

  124. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Americans are forming households at a much faster pace than builders are constructing homes

    https://apple.news/AXAr9Ep7WQDeZJq_PJ_G-Fw

  125. chicagofinance says:

    Dedicated to Fast Eddie

    FYI – Most of this video is silent…… also, no mention of the odor of cabbage or Rheingold.

  126. chicagofinance says:
  127. Fast Eddie says:

    ChiFi,

    Fat Karen wants 650K for that house. Fat Mary, her house tour guide said it’s warranted. She said if you can’t afford it, you should be looking in a different town. I’ve seen many a house with a “6” handle in that condition.

  128. Hold me beer says:

    Was that from cigarettes or smoking brisket?

    We rented an apartment and got a big discount on first month rent for painting the place. I remember my wife sprayed the sliding closet doors with 409 and brown streaks would start running down the door and it smelled like cigarettes and cleaner. We sprayed the whole place with a few bottles of 409. Had to go over all the walls and doors 3 or 4 times before the brown stopped appearing, Turns out the previous tenant was a smoker and had been moved to a hospice with lung cancer. We were surprised the place didn’t smell like cigarettes when we looked at it. Must have had a lot of neutralizing spray in the place to hide it.

  129. Hold my beer says:

    BRT

    All adults in Texas are now eligible for the vaccine in a week or two. Maybe all adults who want one will be able to get vaccinated by July.

  130. BRT says:

    Yes, so I would think a repeat of last summer’s major bump in Florida and Texas is unlikely to occur based on vaccine availability. Could get a blip though.

    I’m still being showered in virus as we speak.

  131. Hold my beer says:

    Are you under or over performing the covid weight gain challenge?

    https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/most-americans-pandemic-bad-weight-215944579.html

  132. ExEssex says:

    My lunch – a double double from in&out says….

  133. crushednjmillenial says:

    A lot of houses in NJ getting listed on a weekday, receiving multiple over-ask offers, and under contract by Monday (so 3-5 days “on the market” before an offer is accepted).

    To some extent, this has been going on for years (based on friends’ and relatives’ home seaches), but it’s red hot the last few months. I saw some houses last summer which were good but sat on the market for weeks or months. They weren’t right for me and my situation, but they would sell for 10% or 20% higher (like, $50k-100k+ more) right now, seemingly.

    Where is the inventory? Anybody living in a house with a perpetual water intrusion, highway noise driving them crazy or neighbors that fight in the front lawn every SAturday night should be selling and shipping out to FL or whatever with an extra $50k in their pocket than a few months ago.

  134. Hold my beer says:

    crushed

    Maybe they are staying for the ambiance.

  135. crushednjmillenial says:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/26/upshot/where-have-all-the-houses-gone.html

    Article linked above posits the following on the inventory issue, along with some cited statistics for some of its reasoning:

    -inventory is shockingly low compared to last few years
    -demand side of housing market is fueled by low-interest rates and outflow from expensive urban markets
    -supply side is being held up by covid fears (do you want strangers walking around your home in a pandemic) and WFH issues (will I really be able to WFH 5 days a week, 3 days a week or what?); supply side is also low because foreclosures are paused
    -we have has abnormally low (compared to historical trends) new housing construction since 2009
    -due to low rates over the last few years, many owners of a starter home have kept it as a rental rather than sell it upon moving up to a larger home (over the last decade, an increase of 7 million more rental single-family houses) so there is less SFH in the for-sale market
    -rents and home prices have diverged (rents down, sale prices up)
    -there might be even more of divergence within the above (single family home rentals and single family home sales = prices up; apartment/condo rentals and condo sales = prices relatively down compared to SFH).

  136. 3b says:

    Hold I know a few that even with all the appreciation after the mortgage and home equity loans are paid, they don’t have as much as one might think.

  137. Hold my beer says:

    3b

    Nothing says jersey like a pair of 60k cars in the driveway of a rotting house that has a pennant for an out of state public college in the window

  138. 3b says:

    Hold: Exactly! And some are the same people that claim NJ schools are the best, and states like Delaware and Rhode Island have horrible school systems, yet they turn around and send their kids to these state schools, where the overwhelming majority of the students are from the same supposedly awful school systems. Go figure!!

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  140. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Nothing says jersey like building up your wealth, and selling your home to the next generation of go getters to finance your easy life in some cheap retirement location…ask lib. He’s doing it. Raised his family in a great school district while building his wealth, and soon running to some cheap retirement location. Wash, rinse, and repeat.

    Hold my beer says:
    March 23, 2021 at 6:23 pm
    3b

    Nothing says jersey like a pair of 60k cars in the driveway of a rotting house that has a pennant for an out of state public college in the window

  141. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Convince your kids to move to Alabama…cheap taxes and schools don’t matter…

    3b says:
    March 23, 2021 at 6:31 pm
    Hold: Exactly! And some are the same people that claim NJ schools are the best, and states like Delaware and Rhode Island have horrible school systems, yet they turn around and send their kids to these state schools, where the overwhelming majority of the students are from the same supposedly awful school systems. Go figure!!

  142. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Crushed,

    Just understand this simple concept. It’s all that matters. There is more demand than supply. It’s only starting…will only get worse. People dumping their money in Bitcoin should really be buying real estate. This country has never seen such low inventory before. The supply/demand dynamics have never been so one sided.

    And it’s not so easy as build more housing when the cost of supplies to build keeps going up too.

  143. ExEssex says:

    School is school. Every state has somewhere for ‘every student’.
    If you see kids going out of state it’s possible they either got money to go there or they couldn’t gain acceptance to a 4 year Univ. of which their aren’t that many.

  144. 3b says:

    Essex: True: The examples I give don’t apply. I am in north Jersey a long time and still struggle to understand the mindset out here. Perhaps it’s because I grew up in the city and not the suburbs. The suburbs can be stifling at times and a lot of group think. It all kind of dissipates when the kids finish high school, then it’s on to the next batch.

  145. crushednjmillenial says:

    Pumpkin,

    If you are bullish on real estate in NJ,

    -there are 17 multi’s for sale in Clifton for $450k or less
    -there are 10 multi’s for sale in Passaic for $450k or less
    -there are 10 multi’s for sale in Garfield for $450k or less

    If you are not buying more rentals, then – out of curiousity – why not?

  146. 3b says:

    Pumps: I will pray for you.

  147. ExEssex says:

    8:42 suburbs are bland everywhere. But bland is good for some kids.
    Being away from home for the first time and being in a city is probably a bad idea for some kids.

  148. Hold my beer says:

    3b

    Reading comprehension is not a strong point for him.

  149. chicagofinance says:

    Lather, rinse, and repeat.

    The Great Pumpkin says:
    March 23, 2021 at 7:26 pm
    Nothing says jersey like building up your wealth, and selling your home to the next generation of go getters to finance your easy life in some cheap retirement location…ask lib. He’s doing it. Raised his family in a great school district while building his wealth, and soon running to some cheap retirement location. Wash, rinse, and repeat.

  150. 3b says:

    Hold: No it’s not. It’s just amazing to me although it should not , but we were just having a non controversial conversation , thoughts/ observations, and then he comes barreling in on the conversation with his blathering like anyone really cares. Amazing a grown 40 something year old man, has no absolutely zero social skills.

  151. Fabius Maximus says:

    Here is my 2c on smokin Q.

    Most important for me is get your meat up to room temp and get your wood chips to temp as well. Dont add the meat until the smoke changes. Putting the meat in early while you still have a lot of white smoke will give you that acrid taste. Your wood chips should look like BBQ charcoal with lots of grey before you start.
    I go heavy with the big woods early, 3/4 hickory to 1/4 apple or pecan. Then switch to 100% of the lighter wood for most of the rest. With a 12 Hr brisket, you are done with the smoke by about Hr 6.
    I use mustard as a force of habit. With Brisket, you loose the taste, but with Chicken and Ribs it makes a difference.
    I wrap for the Texas Crunch. I would rather save the time. For me the first few hours make the brisket. So its a 4AM or a 6AM start. I wrap with some butter and apple juice to steam in the flavor. If I need a hard Bark, dump it on a hot grill or broiler to dry out the surface.

    For my bottom water pan, I use one of those frozen cans of concentrated Apple juice and keep replenishing the pan with water. Dont let it dry out.

    Its a long smoke so use the off hours to cook the rest. Ribs, chicken wings, sausage and quarters. Near the end of the Brisket, I will build the smoke back up. When I pull all the meat, I will drop the temp and put in stuff like hard cheese (Real Cheddar) and almonds for a light smoke. Get out there and experiment.

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