C19 Open Discussion Week 56

From Mansion Global:

‘Concerning’ Rise in U.S. Home Prices as Median Reaches Record High

Low supply and high demand have pushed U.S. home prices to record levels during the Covid-19 pandemic. 

The median sale price for a home in the U.S. hit an all-time high of $331,590 during the four-week period ending March 21, a 16% jump compared to the same time in 2020, according to a report Friday from Redfin. 

At the same time, active listings plummeted 42% year over year for the month ending March 21, marking the biggest decline since at least 2016, when Redfin began tracking the data.The number of new listings was down 12% in the same time period, while the asking price rose to $349,973, an 11% increase. 

“It’s concerning how much home prices have risen during the pandemic,” the chief economist of Redfin, Daryl Fairweather, said in the report. “When the pandemic is over, purchasing a home is going to cost much more than ever before, putting homeownership much further out of reach for many Americans. That means a future in which most Americans will not have the opportunity to build wealth through home equity, which will worsen inequality in our society.”

Homes are also selling faster than ever, according to the report. 

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244 Responses to C19 Open Discussion Week 56

  1. Hold my beer says:

    Foist

  2. Hold my beer says:

    I am really surprised by this. I still think more than half of Texas already has had COVID

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9410481/Texas-COVID-numbers-fall-17th-consecutive-day-following-reopening.html#comments

  3. Hold my beer says:

    Any chance the US will start having real estate auctions for residential homes like they do in Australia?

    https://www.realestate.com.au/news/sydney-boom-old-fibro-house-on-coveted-block-sells-for-nearly-4m-832000-over-reserve/?rsf=syn:news:nca:news:spa:strap

  4. JoyceLovesCopsNightstick says:

    Joyce,

    I see you there next to the captain. I know you love men in uniform. Bet you have one of those kinks of 50 shades of gray.

    https://youtu.be/7WAwuSK36Gw

    To answer your question look around. Everyone is turning back to their own kind, kins, and ethnicity. The Edwardian years before WW1 were another globalization period. And out it went with a big boom.

  5. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Again, the idea that the majority of Americans should be able to have an opportunity to buy real estate is a sweet thoughtful idea. Too bad the market is based on capitalism. I suppose you think everyone should have a good job too and be “rich” under capitalism…lol.

    Real estate is a LUXURY product in a capitalist system. They tried to make everyone homeowners under Bush and failed miserably. We will never try that experiment again. There is a reason land owners were considered elite throughout history in almost every single society. It’s always been the land owners, and everyone else. Why do you think it will be different now?

    ““It’s concerning how much home prices have risen during the pandemic,” the chief economist of Redfin, Daryl Fairweather, said in the report. “When the pandemic is over, purchasing a home is going to cost much more than ever before, putting homeownership much further out of reach for many Americans. That means a future in which most Americans will not have the opportunity to build wealth through home equity, which will worsen inequality in our society.”

    Homes are also selling faster than ever, according to the report.”

  6. BRT says:

    I am really surprised by this. I still think more than half of Texas already has had COVID

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9410481/Texas-COVID-numbers-fall-17th-consecutive-day-following-reopening.html#comments

    Don’t be. It was predictable. That’s why it had so much trouble for COVID to get going in March/April 2020. Meanwhile, in NY/NJ, it was infecting everyone. The reality is, we had such a high rate of transmission that if we didn’t shutdown in NJ for another 2/3 weeks, we probably had 60-70% infected. Texas, Florida, Arizona saw surges in July, presumably with people congregating indoors to escape the heat. It’s too early to declare victory in Texas. If they make it past July with no surge, I’ll congratulate them. What they do have going for them is vaccine is becoming widely available so they can beat the race against time.

    The reality is, you shouldn’t be all that surprised by policy. States that did the most stringent lockdowns had the worst results in the world. Mask mandates don’t matter either. Even with mandates, all that does is have a bunch of people put them on with their nose hanging out. It’s akin to saying NJ must have the safest roads because we have the lowest speed limits and everyone adheres to them.

    There’s almost perfect correlation to vitamin d levels and cases, and southern states naturally just have more vitamin d. The only policy that even seems to have mattered at all was whether or not your governors decided to send positive patients into nursing homes (I’m still waiting to see who came up with that genius idea).

  7. 3b says:

    High house prices are a drag on the economy, no savings or investments as that money is now going to pay an inflated mortgage payment. Less money for consumption as money now going to pay inflated mortgage payment, not stimulating the economy. It’s a problem around the world now, and it won’t end well. Loose monetary policy, low rates are destroying the economy. The rest is all BS.

  8. The Great Pumpkin says:

    That’s why it was a noble cause to try and get the majority of the population to become home owners as opposed to renters. It really was an idea sourced in good intentions. They tried the same thing with education (college for everyone). Too bad, they both failed miserably. Wonder what the next plan will be to help the masses.

  9. The Great Pumpkin says:

    House Prices Are Inflating Around the World

    “A lot of people want to put their money in brick,” Mr. Stausholm said.

    https://apple.news/Ax9iYQPpXQleUw9YFuoMPFQ

  10. joyce says:

    When something of moderate importance comes back to the US and starts being manufactured here again, let me know.

    JoyceLovesCopsNightstick says:
    March 28, 2021 at 9:03 am
    Joyce,

    To answer your question look around. Everyone is turning back to their own kind, kins, and ethnicity. The Edwardian years before WW1 were another globalization period. And out it went with a big boom.

  11. Bystander says:

    3b,

    Homes are 20% more expensive in NJ yet wages are going nowhere. A 30 year can be had for 2.9% and realtors claim market is still strong despite “rate spike”. How is this rate spike? It is ridiculously lower than 3.75 from just 14 months ago. Market got to 4.5 in Q4 2018 and stocks convulsed. Fed got scared and repealed cuts. My guess is now, Fed has created such a massive bubble that 3.5 is new stock convulse range. This will be bad. Fed has painted economy into corner via malinvestment

  12. 3b says:

    Bystander: That is exactly it! Malinvestment. I don’t understand why some are cheering this madness on.

  13. BRT says:

    Once someone buys a home, they cheer the market up. The renters who yearn to buy are hopelessly demoralized. Nevermind, the former was once the latter. I watched twenty something i buy homes in 2006 and it literally set back their income a good $150k to $250k if you keep score 15 years later. Basically, buying real estate at the wrong time has the potential to turn your own personal situation into a lost decade. Moreover, what I find astonishing is that most people swing for the fence and leverage themselves as much as possible. If you qualify for $600k, you buy $600k. Nothing ever smaller? Why not?

    If someone who could service a $500k home bought a $325k townhome instead, they don’t end up ruined if the market doesn’t pan out.

  14. No One says:

    Comparing YoY median changes probably overstates home price appreciation because the mix is shifting to the high end due to the bifurcation Covid economy.
    Case Schiller price indexes are up, but less.

  15. Crushednjmillenial says:

    Pumpkin at 9:21 . . .

    The US housing market is not really a capitalist system.

    For example, on land use, that is an entirely political decision which is made without regard for market forces. To illustrate, imagine that God or the government told the owner of a 2-family in Clifton to do whatever the market will bear with the land. Immediately, it would be for sale to a developer to be turned into a very tall apartment building. At a minimum, apartments would be added in the basement, attic and backyard, and maybe a retail store would be thrown into the front room or two of the ground floor apartment. If land use was looser, there would be more housing supply and lower prices.

    (Of course, greenfield development in Orlando and TX and such is governed by loose land use. If this were not so,US housing prices would be much higher).

  16. ApplesWithLoraz3pamForTheTeacher says:

    Pumpkincrow,

    To add to Crushed point. Residential real estate is socialized right there with Medicare, with the Military Industrial Complex, and right there with the Federal Reserve perpetual Wall Street welfare bail out program.

    Try your real estate fantasy with how it was done pre Fannie/Freddie. You got a 5 yrs balloon adjustable rate mortgage, which at the 5 yrs maturity you either paid up or refinance for another 5 yrs.

    Fannie and Freddie are in purgatory, because every one knows that if they become a government agency again, a lot of supervision will take place. On the other hand if they are privatize the 30 yrs mortgage is a goner.

    The banksters post privatization plan is for them to issue covered bonds like in Europe, with a maximum of 15 yrs term and lower rates adjustables or higher rates fixed.

  17. ExEssex says:

    Even as the vaccination campaign has ramped up, the number of new infections in New Jersey has crept up by 37% in a little more than a month, to about 23,600 every seven days. About 54,600 people in New York tested positive for the virus in the last week, a number that has begun to inch up recently.

  18. BoomerRemover says:

    ARK Investments amended their ETF prospectus:

    removed 10% of limit in a single firm now 30%
    removed limits of investing more than 20% of a float in a single firm
    removed limits on warrants/adr/prefs
    added language about investing in SPACs.

    Good times ahead!

  19. BRT says:

    ARK also releasing their Space Exploration ETF. Sirius XM Radio, John Deere? Someone reasoned they are going to need farm equipment when they colonize the moon. Although, that being said, John Deere might be the best company on that fund. I wonder if Cathie picked up all of Chamath’s shares that he dumped of Virgin Galactic.

  20. The Great Pumpkin says:

    The market is based on capitalism. It’s based on supply and demand, whether that supply and demand is controlled by zoning laws, is all part of the local market. It doesn’t change the fact that the price is not controlled, it is based on supply and demand.

    For example, if a market has zoning laws, it doesn’t lead to price control. It does provide a market with the prospective of higher appreciation, but it does not guarantee it.

    I’m for zoning laws. I do not trust for one second, humans to build logically without them in a capitalist system. They will just build chaotically, which can actually destroy a market by having no organization in its plans. Sky scraper here, small ranch there, and a junk yard right in the middle. Who wants that kind of chaotic building?

    Crushednjmillenial says:
    March 28, 2021 at 3:56 pm
    Pumpkin at 9:21 . . .

    The US housing market is not really a capitalist system.

  21. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Is the market working? I believe it is.

    So what are you advocating for? That we get rid of loans in the economy? You would destroy it. The market needs leverage to grow. So get rid of business loans, get rid of car loans, get rid of bonds, get rid of student loans, and watch it all fall into a deflationary spiral as you limit the amount of money in circulation.

    So yes, the 500,000 house is now only 100,000, but who can afford it? No one. Only the rich. Price is a relative thing. Take away leverage and you lower the price, but you also limit the market participants drastically, that’s why the price is dropping. Limiting the market participants leads to a smaller economy that only works for a few. Hence, why we have 30 year home mortgages.

    Get rid of loans, and you cut off a lot of people from participating in the economy.

    “Try your real estate fantasy with how it was done pre Fannie/Freddie. You got a 5 yrs balloon adjustable rate mortgage, which at the 5 yrs maturity you either paid up or refinance for another 5 yrs.”

  22. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I like it. If she really knows her stuff, I want her to be able to allocate more to a specific company when need be. Right now, a lot of tech is starting to be undervalued. If a company becomes a really good value, I want her to be able to hammer it.

    It could go wrong, but it also could go well.

    BoomerRemover says:
    March 29, 2021 at 12:48 am
    ARK Investments amended their ETF prospectus:

    removed 10% of limit in a single firm now 30%
    removed limits of investing more than 20% of a float in a single firm
    removed limits on warrants/adr/prefs
    added language about investing in SPACs.

    Good times ahead!

  23. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Remember, you are not investing in ARK funds if you are playing it safe. You are taking that risk to hopefully hit big in 5 years. Scared of risk, then play it really safe, just don’t expect to have any chance at really making money. Know what you can handle. Don’t risk money that you can’t lose. Know your age, and how much you can risk. If you are 50 and under, and not taking risks, you are missing out IMO. Then again, not everyone wants to make big money, they are happy with what they have.

  24. BRT says:

    Florida is now cup up on their data.

  25. BRT says:

    Yes, Virgin Galactic is such a good investment that their chairman just dumped $200 million worth of the stock.

  26. Libturd says:

    Pump’s 9:52 is a classic.

    If you want to live a long, healthy and wealthful life, you should do the complete opposite.

  27. Walking says:

    Regarding the covid numbers , yes I believe it’s underreported . We are a family of 6 only reported 2 as covid to the tracers. I did not need my under 12 kids being contacted and being asked personal questions like are you hungry? And him saying yes just because I did not buy him doritos. No need to get child services involved as phoneix has clearly explained from his aituation

  28. Libturd says:

    “If someone who could service a $500k home bought a $325k townhome instead, they don’t end up ruined if the market doesn’t pan out.”

    Back in 2004, with about 200K in the bank (not counting retirement funds), we prequalified for a million dollar mortgage. We took out $384K and put down around $90K on our multi. Lived in the bottom unit and the top unit paid a little under half of our mortgage payment. We did this through 2011 when we saved up enough to buy our current home and at that point, the multi was more than self sufficient on rent. Praise the lord, I have always had decent tenants.

  29. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Lib,

    You have to risk some while you can when you are young. You lose, you lose. That’s life. Don’t put the house on it, but def risk at least 10% of your investment pile in high risk when you are young. Chances are, you will hit if you keep trying. All it takes is one hit..

    Buy some real estate as the safe forced savings game. In 2030, I will be mortgage free, so even if the 401k goes to zero, and I lose it all in the stock market, I will still be worth over a million dollars by 50. That’s only valuing my house at 600k and rental at 400k, they are worth more than that…

    I wish I took more risk, but played it way too conservative because of doom and gloomers invaded my thought process…cost me more than 2 million dollars. That hurts thinking about that. Would have hit 3 times in a 12 year time span and chickened out every time.

  30. ExEssex says:

    Spotify’s headquarters in the United States fills 16 floors of 4 World Trade Center, a towering office building in Lower Manhattan that was the first to rise on the site of the 2001 terror attacks. Its offices will probably never be full again: Spotify has told employees they can work anywhere, even in another state.

    A few floors down, MediaMath, an advertising tech company, is planning to abandon its space, a decision fueled by its new remote-work arrangements during the pandemic.

    In Midtown Manhattan, Salesforce, whose name adorns a 630-foot building overlooking Bryant Park, expects workers to be in the office just one to three days a week. A nearby law firm, Lowenstein Sandler, is weighing whether to renew its lease on its Avenue of the Americas office, where 140 lawyers used to work five days a week.

    “I could find few people, including myself, who think we are going to go back to the way it was,” said Joseph J. Palermo, the firm’s chief operating officer.

    Beyond New York, some of the country’s largest cities have yet to see a substantial return of employees, even where there have been less stringent government-imposed lockdowns, and some companies have announced that they are not going to have all workers come back all the time.

    In recent weeks, major corporations, including Ford in Michigan and Target in Minnesota, have said they are giving up significant office space because of their changing workplace practices, while Salesforce, whose headquarters occupies the tallest building in San Francisco, said only a small fraction of its employees will be in the office full time.

  31. ExEssex says:

    Still, about 90 percent of Manhattan office workers are working remotely, a rate that has remained unchanged for months, according to a recent survey of major employers by the Partnership for New York City, an influential business group, which estimated that less than half of office workers would return by September.

    Across Midtown and Lower Manhattan, the country’s two largest central business districts, there has never been more office space — 16.4 percent — for lease, much higher than in past crises, including after the Sept. 11 terror attacks in 2001 and the Great Recession in 2008.

    As more companies push back dates for returning to offices and make at least some remote work a permanent policy, the consequences for New York could be far-reaching, not just for the city’s restaurants, coffee shops and other small businesses, but for municipal finances, which depend heavily on commercial real estate.

  32. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I still haven’t made my buy into the ark funds for March. I’m just going to bank it for now, wait till I see a reverse in the downward trend, and then pile in (maybe may) Hope I get lucky and it works out. Still want to dollar cost avg, but based on how volatile these ark funds can get, going to put my hand in the cookie jar and hope I don’t get caught.

  33. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Anecdotal.

    Went to the city on Saturday. Went to Central Park with my family. Holy crap, the city is def coming back hard. So many people. Insane. My brother is like, “time to buy stocks, economy is def coming back.”

  34. 3b says:

    Essex: As noted in what you posted, a lot of Companies won’t be coming back to the office full time, and many not at all. Two good friends of mine are big HR role people, and they tell me they have been in the process of putting together how this all will work, and they are having discussions with their counterparts in other companies. Internal surveys indicate that the overwhelming majority of employers surveyed want WFH to continue and want office time limited and or optional. The largest segment that want this are those with children. So CEO, can say what they want publicly, and give measures responses, but behind the scenes it’s a different story. As for a return to the office in whatever fashion, the process won’t even start until after Labor Day.

  35. The Great Pumpkin says:

    The city is so cool. It’s awesome to work and live there, it’s just not good to raise your family there. So like salmon, people go back to suburbia to raise their family, and then come back after they are done with the kids.

    Parts of Central Park looked like a nerd frat party. So many nerdy type mixed in with lots of gays. 20 somethings drinking their wine and eating their cheese. High noons and craft beer. This place is not dying.

  36. The Great Pumpkin says:

    The old and established will want to WFH. The young and ambitious won’t.

    Also, not everyone wants to stay home with the kids..just saying. Plenty of rich guys that would rather be at work eating lunch at a restaurant than at home with the wife and kids.

    3b says:
    March 29, 2021 at 10:36 am
    Essex: As noted in what you posted, a lot of Companies won’t be coming back to the office full time, and many not at all. Two good friends of mine are big HR role people, and they tell me they have been in the process of putting together how this all will work, and they are having discussions with their counterparts in other companies. Internal surveys indicate that the overwhelming majority of employers surveyed want WFH to continue and want office time limited and or optional. The largest segment that want this are those with children. So CEO, can say what they want publicly, and give measures responses, but behind the scenes it’s a different story. As for a return to the office in whatever fashion, the process won’t even start until after Labor Day.

  37. 3b says:

    As noted in my previous post, according to the internal surveys , the biggest component of those who want WFH either permanently, or a mix, are those with children. I guess we just skip over that part because we don’t like it. As well, during these discussions on the pros and drawbacks of WFH vs the office, they always circle back to two factors, the overwhelming majority of employees want it, and the largest component that do are the employees with children. The second component is the huge cost savings in dumping or shrinking significantly corporate office space, and all the additional costs that go along with it.

  38. Trick says:

    Was told last week my position will be fully remote going forward. Before Covid we were allowed to work remote once or twice a month.

  39. BRT says:

    Also, not everyone wants to stay home with the kids..just saying. Plenty of rich guys that would rather be at work eating lunch at a restaurant than at home with the wife and kids.

    They wouldn’t be staying home with the kids if the schools would allow them back

  40. BoomerRemover says:

    Our firm is < 5 people but we elected not to renew our lease in Englewood Cliffs. In the process of porting our phone system over to Grasshopper and having everyone remain mobile. After being told for a decade that a procedure just cannot be carried out remotely, software was put in place to permit remote reviews in a matter of weeks. Still not sure when I'll get to fly for business again. Sort of like commuting to the office it just seems like going through the motions once the cat is out of the bag.

    Additionally, wife is not finding success in her job hunt and we are looking to park some cash in an stablished small biz for her to oversee (~$1MM rev/~250K SDE). Has anyone here gone this route?

  41. Libturd says:

    Pumps.

    You continue to contradict yourself.

    The truth is, the key to getting rich is not about taking risk. The way to get rich is to work hard, save early, save often and invest smartly. Anything you manage to squirrel away when you are young (in your twenties), will absolutely explode in your fifties due to compounding. If you don’t touch it till your mid sixties, forget about it. Key is to get it vested early. Later in your career, though you’ll be making more and spending less. There is no time for it to grow. $1 invested now will be worth $17 in 30 years. In 40 years it will be worth $45. Add some zeros. That’s how you get rich. Not by taking risks. But, by minimizing them.

    Want me to blow your mind?

    If you sock away $150,000 at age 20, it will be worth 7 million by the time you turn 60. Now ask yourself, why are you paying this for your kids to go to college?

    Who needs ARKK funds. All you need is 40 years.

  42. JCer says:

    Pumps your personal residence is one thing, rentals can go sideways. I’m losing my shirt on my mold coast condo, vacant still costing me a ton of money for a long time the building wasn’t even allowing showings, amenities are all closed for covid nobody wants to pay a premium rent for a gym and a pool, etc they cannot use, between egregious property taxes and maintenance fees it’s 2k+ a month millstone so much for a $700k asset! If I took risk I’d be in trouble as I could not make the debt service. Again back to Lib on tenants, if my last tenant wasn’t such a POS, who signed a 2 year lease in 2019 and broke the lease in December of 2020 almost had it re-tenanted when covid struck and haven’t had any activity since. I kept it because I plan to use it personally in the future and at least for the first 2.5 years it was cashflow positive.

    I don’t understand the mindset, people in the pandemic are going for broke but the economic situation is dire for so many. Yes those of us gainfully employed are feeling flush, we didn’t take vacations, we aren’t eating out, no entertainment expenses, much less in the way of children’s activities(no after care,no $2k birthday parties this year, don’t even get me started on that), less driving. Spending is way down at least 25-30k in my case, probably more like 50k if I really look, but that is temporary. I can’t fathom why people are committing this money to housing.

  43. ExEssex says:

    We had an excellent year this year. Grateful for that.

  44. Bystander says:

    “Back in 2004, with about 200K in the bank (not counting retirement funds), we prequalified for a million dollar mortgage. We took out $384K and put down around $90K on our multi.”

    ..and dipsh%t will tell you that it is all fine. That is problem. You are responsible and they try to stuff 1M down your gullet. You refrain. People with worse savings and credit profiles will get offered similar and jump at huge mortgage. Wages are not driving the housing market, it is debt. At some point, wages have to go up significantly or these people will be eaten alive via other life costs. Buy at these prices and you will have 300K locked up in loss for decades when prices fall. I had conversation two years ago with nice family who pounced on home with no basement or garage in 2006. They have two kids now in middle school and busting at seams. Could not sell without giant hit. They had good sense of humor about it at least. Lots of people were in this position from last bust. Dummy thinks they are all millionaires with cash.

  45. chicagofinance says:

    For someone who has not clue what the fcuk they are doing, you sure have a big attitude.

    The Great Pumpkin says:
    March 29, 2021 at 10:27 am
    I still haven’t made my buy into the ark funds for March. I’m just going to bank it for now, wait till I see a reverse in the downward trend, and then pile in (maybe may) Hope I get lucky and it works out. Still want to dollar cost avg, but based on how volatile these ark funds can get, going to put my hand in the cookie jar and hope I don’t get caught.

  46. Fast Eddie says:

    Wages are not driving the housing market, it is debt.

    Back during the latter part of the housing bubble (around 2008??), I was at an open house and the fat, men0pausal house tour guide uttered something along the lines that this area (somewhere in Bergen County) is bleeding wealth. I said to the overweight Karen, “You mean, bleeding debt.” She got very uptight and rather stern in her response to me. I followed with a question to her in which she avoided. But yes, big hat, no cattle is mostly the norm these days.

  47. No One says:

    Pumpkin,
    Coming back hard or coming hard on your back? After too much wine and cheese with the locals.

  48. Nomad says:

    12:01,

    WFH will be common, but I am not sure if everyone gets that with the convenience, will come costs. If not driving or training to work, no bus casual cloths much sans a top that may not need dry cleaning, no dress shoes, shine or repair… I would think in time, there will be more suppression on salary increases unless the employer as to absolutely do it to retain key talent. Add in acceleration of AI which according to either Bain or McKinsey will start to impact mid-level white collar jobs in a big way.

    Lib, thoughts: rotation into value is the chatter these days, after the market crashes, if one puts $$ into a value fund and a growth fund at same time, which does better in the following 3, 5 and 10 year period? Putting $$ into funds later cycle pre-storm value wins but after clouds clear, maybe not so much. Hope you and your spouse are getting by, I know you had a big loss. First holiday never easy.

  49. 3b says:

    Nomad: Of course. All the more reason people should not be paying the ridiculous house prices that they are paying, including paying more to be close to a NYC office that they won’t be going to, or only rarely.

  50. Bystander says:

    Ed,

    Yep. My buddy probably made $200k on NYC apt sale in 2010. Used that as DP on 800k Ridgewood house in 2011. Probably had 600K mortgage, 15K in taxes, SAHM trophy wife, 3 kids and made $135K/year back then. When you saw him at his house, it was always air of richness. When I got him away to Phish show during summer, first hour would be bitching about swimming debt, wife’s demand for country club/Denali, and general unhappiness about financial situation. I know he makes over 200K now but I bet wife’s expecations have also gone up. Did not get to see him last year but hoping to catch up this summer. Multiple his situation times hundreds of thousands.

    Nomad,

    Exactly. My IB would screw you out of a nickel where possible yet dummy thinks wages will rise in NYC area. I see flat for a long time. I have real fears with inflation here and companies having world arbitrage for workforce. No one pays more when they have other options. Companies have been investing in other options for a decade or more now. Here is a job that I receive. It is practically template. Everyone wants resources in areas other than NYC. They want to see if you will relocate. Amazing that dummy thinks all it is great that NYC wealth is causing suburban boom but why are no jobs in NYC too if people have left? Will people want to commute 1.5 hours now? I think WFP is only option but companies are already planning to get off NYC reliance for talent. Only thing that makes sense if workforce won’t return to office.

    Looking for Sr. PM Remote during COVID
    Duration: 12+ month contract position with the possibility longer term extensions
    After COVID, must be able to work onsite at one of these locations: West Des Moines, IA OR Addison/San Antonio/Dallas, TX OR Fort Mill, SC OR Charlotte/Raleigh, NC OR Chandler/Phoenix, AZ; OR Minneapolis, MN OR Atlanta, GA OR Denver, CO OR Sandy, UT OR Portland, OR

    If interested, please respond with resume
    No vendor submissions – Independent Consultants only with no 3rd party involved
    No H!B – No C2C/Corp to Corp / No 1099 / No CPT or OPT at this time

  51. Walking says:

    Bystander, that reminds me back in 2008 or so, went to saddle river park with my kid in ridgewood. Two trophy mom’s at the playground talking about cars and how one had to settle on a new land rover because hubby could not afford the range rover. And the other lamenting how they are all trying to get by. Slashed bonuses etc. I could only imagine their debt scenario. Meanwhile I’m driving a 12 year old ford and probably have more assets then both.

  52. Fast Eddie says:

    Meanwhile I’m driving a 12 year old ford and probably have more assets then both.

    I was driving a 13 year old Honda Civic until I bought myself a BMW last year… sort of my way of saying you earned it after 30 plus years of eating shit. After I signed the papers, the car salesmen asked me what took me so long. I told him I probably wear my hat in my hands more than I should. Long story short, reward yourself for the fruits of your labor but be careful if you post on here about it or else you’ll be labeled as a type of an unworthy, selfish gas bag or blowhard or something of that sort.

  53. Walking says:

    Fast, 4 kids to put through college over the next decade plus. a nice car is not in the picture . Though we did by a new car for the wives mb that finally ran to failure point

  54. Fast Eddie says:

    Walking,

    Priorities, absolutely! Okay, so treat yourself in other ways. :)

  55. BRT says:

    Bystander, that reminds me back in 2008 or so, went to saddle river park with my kid in ridgewood. Two trophy mom’s at the playground talking about cars and how one had to settle on a new land rover because hubby could not afford the range rover. And the other lamenting how they are all trying to get by. Slashed bonuses etc. I could only imagine their debt scenario. Meanwhile I’m driving a 12 year old ford and probably have more assets then both.

    My dad started making big time money the second I left for college. At one point, he was bringing in $600k a year. But on average, he was pulling in $250 to 300k later on in his career. But, golf memberships, supporting deadbeat family, real estate holdings and god knows what else got the best of him. Filed for bankruptcy $2 million in debt and McMansion went into foreclosure.

    I was in a board meeting in 2008 where a parent came in and argued the teachers need to feel the pain of the recession because he didn’t get his $200k Christmas bonus.

  56. Libturd says:

    I’m weird about death. I’m not much of a mourner. I’m also not religious, so that may have something to do with it. Though humans have brains that allow us some pretty significant advantages over other living things. I really don’t think this set us apart from say an earthworm, or a blade of grass, when it comes to afterlife entitlement. We created the concept because we could. With that said, I think Western traditions, wakes, funeral homes, even funerals are morbid and wholly unnecessary wastes of time. I really prefer to honor someone by remembering them when they were alive. Not from some morbid gathering where we view a corpse or a wooden box and headstone. Reminiscing about someone’s life is nice. But who is it really nice for? That person is dead and can’t hear or appreciate it. We should try to honor the living more, when they deserve it. Like with my views on organized religion (not faith, which I do practice), I know I am in the minority. After my organs are harvested, I told Gator not to waste money on a cemetery plot. Just toss me in a hole, in the ocean, or in an oven. It makes no difference. Just make sure I’m dead first. Though I do appreciate the sentiment of everyone’s well wishes. Gator reads the blog, so I’m sure they will comfort her more.

    To answer the value investing question, I would say it all depends on your timeframe of needing the money. Nothing I say is meant to be precise and it’s all based on about 40 years of closely following the market. Indeed, the market has recently turned to rewarding value. Why? Because it had too. At the end of last year, tech valuations were impossibly high. I moved 30% of my 401K into value back in October just in case. I also moved 10% into international. My former 100% large cap growth strategy (Chi mentioned why it made sense and he was spot on THIS time) had reaped me the best year ever, but the combination of extended valuations and the end of Covid necessitated the change. The part that is hard to determine is how long will this trend continue. The market is extremely forward looking, and the shift back into the FAANGs will definitely occur again. Once the pundits are telling you to do something, you usually missed the boat. Chasing puts one in a terrible position as you are too often left holding the bag. This is why diversity rules over risk in the long run. If I were to guess, the market should move up in a more balanced fashion for the next few months. We just have to get past the inflation scare. Powell has telegraphed his position and the FED is ready, willing and able to keep printing. I do expect another rally to new highs (in tech) and probably a ways higher. For the next three or four quarters, between the pent up demand for people to party (waste money), plus the earnings comparison of the current quarter to the deep lockdown in the TTM (trailing twelve months ago) quarter, the market should go bonkers. But it will be short-lived and you WILL need to learn to look the gift-horse in the mouth as this FED induced storm will need to come to an end. And when it does, it will be very ugly. Very, very ugly. Especially considering how Covid and our countries mishandling of it will have widened the income disparity gap so greatly. We are still yet to pay for Covid.

    I always try to position myself to reduce risk, but also try to predict changes in the sector mix based on macro events. Since you are potentially to late to the value mix and probably took the tech haircut in full, I would just do something similar to what I’m doing. Maybe go 50 large cap growth, 40 value and 10 international now. See if value rally is over and go back to 60/30/10 or even 50/30/20 or something similar. I do expect international to rebound similarly, especially when our market finally blows it’s top. But long, long range, large cap growth will always win. That’s where the lobbying dollars come from.

  57. leftwing says:

    “For someone who has not clue what the fcuk they are doing, you sure have a big attitude.”

    C’mon chi, don’t be so hard on him. Of course he has a clue…from one of his ARKK posts right above yours:

    “It could go wrong, but it also could go well.”

    LOLOLOL.

  58. democratnomore says:

    Libturd,

    What phone provider did you switch to? Thanks in advance.

    I was let go so I am looking at every place that I can save money.

  59. 3b says:

    WFH/ Geographically agnostic when it comes to office location, employee/ talent pool. That is where corporate America was heading before the pandemic, and the pandemic has accelerated the process.

  60. Walking says:

    Lib, was your funeral comment in response to Fema announcing it is picking up the tab for funeral costs of covid family members? I could not believe that we have become so unprepared as a country that even when dead we still expect the govt to pay us.

  61. leftwing says:

    And yeah, chi, crazy shit on that margin call…went balls deep on writing VIAC puts this morning…trying to not be greedy, normally exit at 50% up but that happened after a few hours….rarely hold til expiry but…..maybe exit the Mays and hold the Aprils, what the hell, 19 days to expiry with two weekends and a market holiday……

  62. Libturd says:

    Amazon PE at 73.

    https://ycharts.com/companies/AMZN/pe_ratio

    Tech is getting fairly valued again.

  63. Libturd says:

    Dem,

    Visible.

    It’s been a few weeks and no noticeable difference from Verizon besides my bill halving and now everyone has a hotspot to go with their unlimited data.

    If you book, use code 3mQLRW I get $5. And you get some goodies too. Once you are in, you can join my party (their dumb reference system and your monthly charge will be $25 instead of $40. Even if I quite (which I doubt I will), you can join any number of parties of people signing up as they list them on reddit and their own blog. I’m already at 4 people for the max discount, but any number can join the party for the discount.

  64. leftwing says:

    “Libturd says: To answer the value investing question…”

    Listen to this man.

    TY on CENT, lower left hand corner to upper right hand, uninterrupted.

    What else you got?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2_ygqPepLjM&ab_channel=EFHUTTON

  65. Libturd says:

    lefty,

    Nothing is screaming at me now. Will look again this week.

    Remember the EF Hutton commercial on the roller coaster too? They stopped the chain on the way up the first drop when a rider says “EF Hutton.”

    Brilliant.

  66. Libturd says:

    Couldn’t find it online, but I kind of remember it clearly.

    Still, Chunk, Chunk, Chicken still rings in my brain for some reason.

    https://youtu.be/s-5V76NiZV0

  67. leftwing says:

    And, last one chi, with that big Booth brain help me out here…..

    MSGE/MSGN….

    All stock transaction no new debt. Literally just jamming two pre-existing businesses back together. Let’s assume zero synergies, not even the easy ones like NOLs.

    No premium exchange ratio (0.172) based on last unaffected trading day (3/9).

    [broken up for filter]

  68. leftwing says:

    MSGE is back at levels before re-opening of venues bumped that trade considerably.

    What am I missing? Why isn’t this a screaming buy if the market liked these two at $120/$20 a share two weeks ago?

  69. Bystander says:

    Ed/Walking,

    You are doing right thing if your kids are embarrassed by car you pick them up in. My mother had old orange Pinto, maroon Austin marina with bad brakes and crappy White Reliant. I went to private Catholic school and what a show picking us up.

  70. leftwing says:

    fcuking unbelievable filters…..

    most basic analysis says share prices should worst case remain static, no?

  71. Nomad says:

    So Lib,

    When you say get past the inflation scare. Other than a few months of it, do you believe it is not possible because we won’t get to full employment or simply because we will have more than enough supply of goods so as to not run short and hence, drive up prices. Why does copper go up when most new construction is PEX as is retrofitting old pipes. Total copper consumption in the US I would think is down due to PEX unless mfg output has dropped.

  72. chicagofinance says:

    I would have told the guy to go fcuk himself.

    Fast Eddie says:
    March 29, 2021 at 2:05 pm
    After I signed the papers, the car salesmen asked me what took me so long.

  73. chicagofinance says:

    I think you just gave FabMax a stiffy……

    Libturd says:
    March 29, 2021 at 2:34 pm
    Just toss me in a hole, in the ocean, or in an oven.

  74. chicagofinance says:

    Pant-up…. c’mon man!

    Libturd says:
    March 29, 2021 at 2:34 pm
    For the next three or four quarters, between the pent up demand for people to party (waste money)

  75. chicagofinance says:

    I’ll go look.

    Sight unseen, the two things without checking are (1) which entity does Dolan have super voting shares? (2) Also, possible Viacom volatility noise? The Dolan thing always creates control discount…. let me look when I have time.

  76. Fast Eddie says:

    I would have told the guy to go fcuk himself.

    Lol. I guess you had to be there. I was sort of almost apologetic to myself… feeling almost selfish that I would buy something like that for me. Underserving in a way? Hard to explain but I think he sensed that maybe I felt I finally earned it a little… that I was worthy of it. He was a younger guy, maybe he admired my contrite nature? I don’t know but I like your wording. :)

  77. chicagofinance says:

    Left: It sounds as if the reverse spin is admitting failure.

    Stand alone entities always earn a premium (easier to value), and the kicker was that Dolan held out the possibility that some sports network would buy out MSGN at a juicy number. I am guessing the recomb is #1 admitting that MSGN is meh, and programming can be replicated; and #2 MSGE is in more of a cash crunch than not. I don’t think it is any big deal, but it is certainly negative signaling to the market.

    Bear in mind: (1) Viacom noise and also (2) we are abutting 1Q21-end.

    I think technical conditions are screwy along with a negative signal. Also Dolan sux.

    That being said, I don’t think there is any particular value here, but (1) technicals are creating a lot of noise, and (2) I think macro conditions in the space will dominate the price action. I think the space in under a lot of duress, so it is impossible to put a flag down until next week…….. or take a shot in a protected way….. the thought that Tuesday 4/6 might be the first clean look in this dislocated area.

    I hate dealing with Dolan…. he turns everything to stone…..

  78. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I can’t wait to prove you wrong. Give it some time.

    The city and office will continue to be valuable assets to the economy. If you think it’s going to be cool to be conducting business from home, it’s not.

    For the jobs that are going WFH, I would be nervous. Those will be the jobs that are sacrificed first. With no emotional attachment due to never building one, it’s going to be a lot easier to fire the WFH workers as opposed to the workers that show up in person…facts.

    3b says:
    March 29, 2021 at 12:56 pm
    Nomad: Of course. All the more reason people should not be paying the ridiculous house prices that they are paying, including paying more to be close to a NYC office that they won’t be going to, or only rarely.

  79. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Add in the fact the platform makes it easier to hire people in the international market, I would be very scared to take the WFH option. They will toss you and screw you. WFH is screaming…bye job.

  80. BRT says:

    I’m weird about death. I’m not much of a mourner. I’m also not religious, so that may have something to do with it. Though humans have brains that allow us some pretty significant advantages over other living things.

    I had a brother pass away on me when I was almost 4. By the age of 5, I literally flipped a switch off on my emotions and am completely indifferent to someone passing away. Probably the only way to get through the day. I have no idea how to turn it back on. Ironically, when my dog died 10 years ago, I was a hot mess.

  81. leftwing says:

    LOL on Dolan, agree. But he is a constant, no change before and after.

    Good points taken on the unattractiveness of RCNs and especially the admittance of failure and cash crunch. Those two items, plus maybe some investors who wanted either ‘pure play’ and not wanting the combined entity, are the only differences I could see before and after.

    In that context, again, what a haircut. If you liked either before….

    May dip a toe in, too bad the puts are trade on appointment….

  82. leftwing says:

    RSNs….

  83. Libturd says:

    Nomad,

    I expect further inflation but it will be muted by the lack of wage inflation. FED is in wait and see mode rather than preemptive strike mode (which is good for a change). I think market is in a wait and see mode. Can’t explain material price changes besides oil prices rising on expected demand increase post covid. Lots of the pork in Biden’s plans are going to create jobs. This usually has a positive effect. Not as smart as cutting taxes and letting people spend money, but there has to be payback.

    I say, invest in condoms or baby-related industries. A lot of people are about to go on a humping spree. Hopefully, hospitals don’t overload with preggies a year from now.

    Left. Invest in Jersey. Church and Dwight outta Ewing. Recession proof too and has not really experienced the value gains that so many others already have. Kinda kidding, but will do a deeper dive on them later.

  84. Stuart J Weissman says:

    Dolan is the worst. Can’t stand him and I’ve never been a Knicks or Rangers fan.

  85. Fabius Maximus says:

    (~$1MM rev/~250K SDE)

    Boomer, I have been watching this space for a while trying to find something to pick up. Pickings are slim. A lot of Franchisees trying to get out from under and restaurants trying to sell up. A lot of Pizza places trying to sell the phone number. If you want a UPS Store or a gas station, there are a few around. I’m looking for something like a laundromat or small engineering firm.

    Here is an interesting one. Its too far south for me, but its numbers are interesting.
    https://www.bizbuysell.com/Business-Opportunity/Engineering-Business-for-sale-in-Ocean-County/1836433/

    As I drive around I’m looking at empty storefronts. I may restart one of those as the Covid restrictions loosen.

  86. leftwing says:

    SDE is……?

  87. Phoenix says:

    Saturday Night Live: Boomers Got the Vax – SNL.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2hekDuCBxCc

  88. Bystander says:

    More dumb people 3b. They don’t know a genius roams the halls in NJ schools..a manchild who quietly ignores his students but knows how WFH in private sector should work.

    Home working is here to stay and the end of the five-day-a-week office commute will change the shape of cities dramatically, according to former Bank of England deputy governor Sir Charlie Bean.

    Sir Charlie has become the latest prominent figure to declare that the traditional, office-based working week is over as he predicted firms will adopt a permanent flexible model after the pandemic.

    Speaking to the PA news agency, the former deputy governor for monetary policy at the Bank said the switch will impact the economy “in ways we don’t fully foresee”.

  89. chicagofinance says:

    small dick engineer

    leftwing says:
    March 29, 2021 at 5:54 pm
    SDE is……?

  90. chicagofinance says:

    left: Naveen Chopra should get a knighted for the capital markets sh!tkicking he gave Bill Hwang. Hwang probably thought he was going to pull some kind of Wallstreetbets on steroids, and instead Chopra kicks him right in the nuts.

    THAT is a true takedown….. meanwhile, nobody in the public has any idea.

  91. chicagofinance says:

    Just to be clear MSG is messy because so many trade in passive sector blocks. It needs time to sort out, but not during a holiday week and leaning on 1Q21 end. It’s difficult to know what is there…… shoot and ask questions later.

  92. chicagofinance says:

    I wouldn’t be surprised if Hwang assassinates him.

  93. chicagofinance says:

    Bud….. don’t cross Gordon…. he’ll crush you.

  94. 3b says:

    Bystander: I was going to reply to his last couple of comments, but what’s the point, in trying to reason with him. I become as bad as him, by entertaining his comments. It is a legitimate topic for the blog, as it is already and will continue to impact all of us in corporate America. You are of course right. It’s here to stay and it will have a huge impact on NYC and every city going forward. That is why he does not like it, and seems to think that by howling at the moon against it, he can somehow prevent it. He perceives it as negative to his own personal interests, and therein lies the hostility. No other reason.

  95. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Bystander,

    I’ll bet you in a few years after corvid, most people will still be going to the office to work. Cities became ultra expensive and people were still attracted to it. Why? You think this trend will just go away. Sure.

  96. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I mean, do you really think most people are just going to stay in their homes? Again, the companies that decide to still leave the house will be the winners. Half a$$ companies who don’t need talent will resort to wfh Indians for hire, just like they do now.

  97. The Great Pumpkin says:

    And like nomad alluded to…it has a cost. If people are saving money (because of wfh), how do you think they are saving…at the cost of someone’s job.

  98. 3b says:

    And like clockwork boom!!Howling at the moon!!

  99. Hold my beer says:

    Pumps

    Perhaps they are getting more take out (average american has gained 29 pounds) or spending it on hobbies and collecting stuff (look at Shopify, Etsy, and ebays growth).

  100. Hold my beer says:

    I think every fast food place in my town that has a drive thru has so far survived the pandemic. All pizza, Mexican, and Chinese places are still open too. Even the sub shops and ice cream places are open. The frozen yogurt place is gone and a fast casual burger place is gone too. Although I think the burger place went down to poor business decisions. They would only take phone orders if you read your credit card to them over the phone. All the other places have either their own app you can order from or linked to u er eats or grub hub or something like that.

  101. The Great Pumpkin says:

    This post states perfectly why WFH is bad news. 29 lbs, huh? God knows how much this is going to cost future Americans as people sat on their fat a$$ for a year and drove up future healthcare costs.

    That’s why I’m different. While they are getting fat, sitting on their ass, I’m prob in the best shape I have been in 20 years. HIIT exercises 5 days a week along with core.

    Hold my beer says:
    March 29, 2021 at 8:14 pm
    Pumps

    Perhaps they are getting more take out (average american has gained 29 pounds) or spending it on hobbies and collecting stuff (look at Shopify, Etsy, and ebays growth).

  102. BRT says:

    Perhaps they are getting more take out (average american has gained 29 pounds) or spending it on hobbies and collecting stuff (look at Shopify, Etsy, and ebays growth).

    Remember, Anthony Fauci can only make recommendations from a “public health perspective”. 29 pounds? How many heart attacks for people in their 40s are on their way? What a disaster.

  103. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Johanna Santana, a 36-year-old corporate-communications professional based near Orlando, Fla., said the pandemic has made her long for office work. Her hour-plus commutes would allow her to listen to music or podcasts and get pumped for the job, and then decompress, putting bookends on her workdays. “It was the only time I had to myself,” she said.
    For much of the past year, she has juggled calls, meetings and emails while tending to a toddler, changing her son’s diapers and cooking, while her husband worked and her stepdaughter attended virtual high school in the next room.
    “There were no breaks, there were no separations,” she said. “I couldn’t breathe.”
    For the first time in roughly 20 years of working, Ms. Santana said she felt truly burned out. She quit her job in the fall and found a new one in Richmond, Va. She is starting remotely, and is anxious to move her family and get into headquarters. “I honestly cannot wait for the day when I’m back in the office,” she said. “I need the office.”

    -wsj

    https://apple.news/AWHKOMgRmRjiFOeI4JoASQA

  104. Hold my beer says:

    Pumps

    That’s capitalism. Think of all the extra money to be spent on weight loss, medical care, hospitalizations, new wardrobe. Plus the ones who gained over 50 pounds will have to trade their Prius for a Tahoe, their condo for a McMansion.

  105. crushednjmillenial says:

    Rutgers Basketball . . .

    RU lost to Houston in the second round, after being up by 3 at the half. RU was up by 10 points with 10 minutes to go, but they let Houston take it from them.

    Houston just punched their ticket to the Final Four tonight, escaping with the W against Oregon State. If RU won, I think they would have beat Syracuse to get to the Elite Eight, but I don’t know if RU would have beat this Oregon State team.

  106. crushednjmillenial says:

    Expanding the 7 line from Hudson Yards to Secaucus Junction. . .

    Hudson Yards has 6m square feet of office space. 750k sq ft of retail. 5,000 apartments. It also is currently the terminus of the 7 line at 34th St. and 11th Avenue.

    I am surprised the ownership of Hudson Yards doesn’t loop in some trades union leadership and together lean on the politicians to extend the 7 line to Secaucus Junction. Seems like it would be a good way to increase the value of that office space and retail – make it more commutable to more workers.

    Buttigieg says the Gateway Tunnel is a high-priority. Big stimulus/infrastructure money is about to flow into the streets. Unions are about to gorge like never before. Might be an opportuntiy for Related (sponsor of Hudson Yards) to twist some arms and get the politicians to throw another $10-20B at an extra rail tunnel. What’s another few billion when Uncle Sam is spending like a drunken sailor.

  107. Bystander says:

    Yep crushed. Rutgers had Houston on ropes but tried to grind clock down too early, habitually letting it get around 10 then rushing shot. If they just kept looking for good buckets then good shot at Elite 8. Cuse was hot but not a great team overall. Houston shut Buddy Boeheim down.

  108. Libturd says:

    I’m a huge RU fan. Been going to basketball and football games my whole life. When Johnson went for the slam dunk and flubbed it instead of just laying the ball in, I knew it was over. That was a five point mistake. The two he missed and three points Houston scored as Johnson was licking his wounds. You would think this team would learn. Earlier in the year, with a monstrous lead on Ohio State?, Young went up for one of those, got bumped on the way up and landed flat on his back. Didn’t look the same the rest of the season. The truth is, I doubt this team would have managed to win three games back to back. They lacked consistency and eventually would have ended up a game in foul trouble as they alway did. all season long. Besides Young and maybe Johnson, they’ll all be back (I bet). I also bet they are a much improved team next year even with a Sophomore big man in Omoruyi instead of Johnson. It will also help for Mulcahy to exit as he takes unforced bad looks way too often. Also, you don’t usually make the elite 8 with the 328th worst free throw percentage out of 329 teams in the country.

    This was a fun team to watch on defense. On offense, they were simply very lucky and very stupid.

  109. The Great Pumpkin says:

    We’re Getting the Band Back Together
    Artists can’t wait to get back on tour, but after more than a year on pause for the Covid-19 pandemic, the live events business is facing a potential worker crisis: not enough roadies. Concerts operate in a world of contracts, with workers moving from gig to gig, tour to tour. Without live events, though, many stage hands, lighting and sound technicians, ticket takers and ushers assumed other jobs. The concern among event organizers is that those workers might not come back, having moved on to other jobs that might be more stable, more lucrative or offer perks like insurance or retirement options. Also lost is a generation of apprentices, the younger workers who would have been learning the craft, eager to graduate from the warehouse gig to the local show and on to the national tour, Anne Steele reports.

  110. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Americans in their 30s are starting to bridge the wealth gap with prior generations, though Black millennials still lag far behind, according to new research from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. In 2019, the net worth of households headed by people born in the 1980s was about 11% below where researchers expected it to be based on older Americans’ wealth at the same age, a huge improvement from the 40% gap in 2016. Researchers worried that student debt and the legacy of the financial crisis might render millennials a “lost generation” that would never build wealth on par with their parents and grandparents. Prospects now look much brighter—for some of them, anyway, Rachel Louise Ensign reports.

  111. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Prob the best buying opportunity into growth stock funds like ARK that you will get. I’m with this guy, I don’t see runaway inflation or high rates coming. I think the herd is wrong.

    “Robert Tipp doesn’t buy the popular Wall Street view that U.S. government bond yields are bound to keep rising this year, though he allows that they could before likely falling later.

    The chief investment strategist at PGIM Fixed Income, Mr. Tipp is among a relatively small group of contrarians who have bet for months that the forces lifting bond yields—expectations for a post pandemic surge in growth and inflation, increased government borrowing—are no match for the structural factors that have suppressed them for decades.

    Mr. Tipp’s position is notable because he and other so-called bond bulls have generally been right about the direction of Treasury yields over the past 30 years. That gives their perspective some added ballast as investors confront a set of highly unusual circumstances, including the possible end of a pandemic and an unprecedented surge in peacetime government spending and tax cuts.”

  112. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Hwang’s most recent ascent can be pieced together from stocks dumped by banks in recent days — ViacomCBS Inc., Discovery Inc. GSX Techedu Inc., Baidu Inc. — all of which had soared this year, sometimes confounding traders who couldn’t fathom why.
    One part of Hwang’s portfolio, which has been traded in blocks since Friday by Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo & Co., was worth almost $40 billion last week. Bankers reckon that Archegos’s net capital — essentially Hwang’s wealth — had reached north of $10 billion. And as disposals keep emerging, estimates of his firm’s total positions keep climbing: tens of billions, $50 billion, even more than $100 billion.
    It evaporated in mere days.
    “I’ve never seen anything like this — how quiet it was, how concentrated, and how fast it disappeared,” said Mike Novogratz, a career macro investor and former partner at Goldman Sachs who’s been trading since 1994. “This has to be one of the single greatest losses of personal wealth in history.”
    Late Monday in New York, Archegos broke days of silence on the episode.

    https://apple.news/A2bfpTZZUR9aCgo12bBiHeA

  113. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Pretty good idea that I just came up with. Look at companies leaving the office. Look at their competition. If their competition will still use offices, then buy those companies and short the companies going mostly remote. You know this a dumb trend due to the times, and those companies are going to pay dearly in the long term as the “office” companies will have the more “ambitious” and “motivated” workforce. They will have a more competitive workforce that will destroy the WFH companies.

    Think of it like this. You want to put your money on “team pajamas” or “team professional,” that gets up everyday looking like a professional and playing the part, as opposed to the employee in pajamas gaining weight by the day.

    “JPMorgan, Salesforce Join Growing List of Firms Dumping Office Space
    Rise of remote work means demand for office space could be permanently lower for some companies”

    https://apple.news/AiUOlCH_LQPm2F8vVV2r3Aw

  114. The Great Pumpkin says:

    WFH works in a pandemic because your “office” competition is forced to work remotely too. What happens over 3-5 year period where there are no pandemic restrictions. How much more innovative will the in person company be in comparison to one that is handicapped by a WFH workforce? I bet a lot.

    We could have WFH 30 years ago, but didn’t. Could have easily done it 10 years ago, but didn’t. And any company that tried, abandoned it, why?

    Now, when the entire playing field is forced to WFH, we draw conclusions that it is now working? Yes, it’s because your competition is working from home too, just wait till they return to the office and you don’t.

  115. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Def set the blog up for a nice day of bickering back and forth.

    Jcer and Bystander,

    You guys have spoken over the years about how destructive remote based work has been to your companies. How disorganized and destructive working with that remote Indian workforce team has been. Now apply that disorganization to every company that goes remote now.

  116. BidenIsTheGOAT says:

    11 and 14 y/o shot in philly this weekend while riding scooters. One of them dies. No mention in the propaganda.

  117. BidenIsTheGOAT says:

    The left is a great place for a predator to hide out. As long as you keep up woke status at the highest level you can operate a long long time. You’ll get all the cover you need as long as you’ll do the dirty work without conscience.

  118. 3b says:

    Pumps: Please give WFH a rest you are babbling on, how it could have been done 30 years ago!! Seriously!!!?? That statement just shows that you know absolutely nothing about corporate America, or the type of work we do. WFH is here to stay in all its varieties, period. The 9 to 5 schlep to the office 5 days a week is over. That’s it. Just accept it. You don’t like it, we know! We also know why you don’t like it. You embarrass yourself here, with all your howling against it. For those of us who are actually affected by WFH, as in we are doing it, we should be able to have a discussion here about it, and what we are seeing and experiencing. Instead you come in and hijack the topic, because you don’t like it. Just let it go.

  119. 3b says:

    Crushed : The amount of corruption with this stimulus package will be staggering. Unions as you say will gorge on it. Tons of overtime, double time and a half. BS projects that will be started and take years to finish if ever. Guys standing around getting paid for doing nothing.

  120. Fast Eddie says:

    The working poor and the trucking industry is about to get f.ucked with the mileage tax. So much love by the left. And wait until you see the launching of Solyndra 2.0!

  121. The Great Pumpkin says:

    3b,

    I bring good points to the table, but you just bash them. Cool story!

  122. Chicago says:

    The only thing pointed is the top of your head.

  123. The Great Pumpkin says:

    It’s the same as you crying that the suburbs are dead circa 2014. Claiming I don’t know a thing, and that I’m only against your position because I own real estate in north jersey. How that work out?

    I clearly was ahead of the expert talking heads writing headlines that the suburbs are dead. I was able to understand the big picture in the longterm as opposed to focusing on a hot trend at the time due to demographics.

  124. ExEssex says:

    I think it’s silly to constantly proclaim yourself some seer of trends.
    Needing constant validation is also ridiculous.

  125. Grim says:

    Neighbors Tesla roof does look really slick…

  126. 3b says:

    Pumps: You bring nothing to the topic of WFH as you simply have no basis or reference to point to. You claimed WFH could have been done 30 years ago!! That is one of your most embarrassing statements ever! You don’t like WFH as you are afraid it will impact you negatively, and we all know why. I will leave it at that, and ask you to please stop hijacking the topic.

  127. ExEssex says:

    8:53 what is really interesting is how decentralized many corporate functions are.
    Amgen for example has their IT and I believe HR functions entirely in Tampa.
    Their corporate HQ is in Thousand Oaks. Some teams are populated with experienced middle managers located all over the country. No, they aren’t “losers” or low level functionaries, but they are highly skilled highly paid leaders. The expectation that one must be near the corporate headquarters to work at a given company is outdated.

  128. Trick says:

    Grim

    Is that the full shingle roof? how long did it take to install?

  129. grim says:

    Yeah. About 3-4 days, there must have been 30 people there. Not sure how many were watching, training, working or what.

  130. Phoenix says:

    Buttequig and fellow democrap plan.

    “Democrats have slowly pivoted away from a gasoline tax in favor of a mileage tax amid a simultaneous, climate friendly effort to encourage consumers to drive electric cars.”

    The democrats are out to lunch. Where are these poor consumers, even if they could pony up for an electric car, going to plug the thing in? Does he think that apartments and low income housing are going to install chargers?

    Pete can stick his plug right there.

  131. No One says:

    Keep in mind WFH and reduced business travel allows big companies to
    1)Brag about their ESG environmental achievements in reducing CO2 emissions (which has become a big thing among the largest companies)
    2)Save money on rent
    3)Cut people and outsource people more easily
    4)Geographically expand their personnel recruitment opportunities
    But only in business fields where remote work works.
    It doesn’t work for daycare, most schooling, police, fire, medical, restaurants, landscaping, construction, traditional retail or grocery, delivery people, warehouse workers, and many other fields.
    It works great in the field of investment management. I worked from home for a couple years after 9/11 burned down my office at 90 West St, using a virtual Bloomberg terminal on my desk at home and had strong performance. Same thing happened in 2020, but used FactSet and other technology made it easier in some ways than in 2002. My main complaint is that Teams/Zoom etc, has led to an increase in meetings, more than I had to endure in person at the office. Most internal meetings are a waste of time, in person or virtual, serving as a crutch for people who aren’t good at reading and writing.

  132. Phoenix says:

    Keep putting up Tesla roofs and there will be a generate your own electricity tax to support JCP&L

  133. Phoenix says:

    And Zoom completely avoided paying tax. It’s good to be the king.

  134. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Okay, maybe not early 90’s, but by end of the 90’s with email, internet, and cell phones…why couldn’t you work from home?

    Simple reason…people are more innovative when they collaborate in person together.

    Did you ever try teaching someone over a zoom? How can companies survive like this? It will turn into what bystander and jcer have spoke about over and over. They are stuck on the phone trying to teach someone the process that would have taken a short time in person. Look at how disorganized their companies have become since they started using foreign remote teams in India. Like they say, the coding and programs are so f’ed up from this disorganization that it’s beyond f’ed…it’s just that the upper level management doesn’t realize it yet, and are only focused on saving money.

    Now you want to apply this model to all white collar jobs? Lmfao…people are funny.

  135. grim says:

    No, they’ll simply opt not to buy your surplus grid feed.

    From what I can tell, there is no requirement that they actually do it. Or, they’ll cut the rate for grid-feed power to nearly nothing, and resell it as a profit.

    So many options. How about the delivery charges double or triple to subsume generation rates.

  136. Phoenix says:

    “The only thing pointed is the top of your head.”

    It needs to be cause that is the attachment point for the propeller.

  137. Phoenix says:

    grim,
    Jersey already pays very little. Looked into it 10 years ago. Was told by those in the know to only generate close to what you use. Everything else they will pay you a pittance.

  138. 3b says:

    Pumps: By the end of the 90s!! LMFAO!! Totally clueless! Companies are doing WFH and expanding it, because it is working, and yes there are difficulties, and they are and will be worked through. If it were not working, it would be another story. Be honest and tell the class why you have so much hatred against WFH.

  139. No One says:

    “JJ” types are the ones deathly afraid of WFH. The kind that BS or connection their way into a job they aren’t qualified to do, then glad-hand and charm their way into remaining in a management position above their level of confidence. In the remote work world “JJ” types will have to resort to changing his name to Jaye and using a photo of a 25 year old busty gal as his profile to work his way up, and then live in fear of meeting their bosses in person, pretending he just liked using his daughter’s photo for his profile. Good concept for a movie, huh?

  140. 3b says:

    No one: I agree the Zoom meetings are tedious, but they were starting to be even before WFH. As I have been telling doofus for months, prior to the pandemic, companies were already embracing geographically agnostic when it came to filling job openings. Prior to the pandemic, my team would have sat in 5 different offices, and to meet together would require Zoom meetings. This is one of the issues companies are working through now, as what’s the point in bringing people back to the office, when their team members are sitting in more than one office.

  141. Fast Eddie says:

    After WFH this past year, I changed my mind. Who needs the commute and the office if it’s working otherwise? My boss is a great guy and we have a great working relationship but I’ve had bosses in the past that pestered you every hour by coming to your desk/cubicle, etc. Who needs to see such m0rons? And most bosses are m0rons. I’m up for the WFH thing indefinitely. And if means selling my house and moving to a condo way out on route 80 while doing the same job I’m doing, then I’m all for it.

  142. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Clueless? If you say so. I bring up good points, but because it doesn’t fit with current headlines on WFH becoming the norm, you accuse me of being clueless. Okay, well then address my concerns in terms of competition between a remote work company and an office company.

    You are right about one thing if WFH really does become the norm. Cheap real estate. Why? Because every single white collar job will be sent to some low cost country.

  143. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Say goodbye to America and other high cost countries standard of living except for the investment class. That’s why I’m investing hard in innovation, when it takes your job, hopefully your passive income supports you.

  144. Phoenix says:

    Too bad we can’t outsource lawyers on a grand scale. I’d be fine with some Asian guy filing motions for me @ 10 cents on the dollar.

    And I’d bet at worst they would be equal and most likely better than the bloodsucking ticks you see in person.

  145. 3b says:

    Pumps:Good points based on what your experience based on working in corporate America? Good points as in WFH could have been done 30 years ago? That comment alone disqualifies you from the discussion. You can babble on all you want, but at the end of the day you hate WFH as you feel it may negatively impact your personal situation. That’s the truth, plain and simple.

  146. ExEssex says:

    10:02 oh that is already happening.

  147. ExEssex says:

    I’d like to see a movement toward tax incentives for firms who hire and locate in America.

  148. The Great Pumpkin says:

    If you thought the elimination of manufacturing jobs hurt Americans standard of living, imagine what happens when you lower the cost of white collar jobs and start shipping them off like we did with manufacturing. Like Perot said, giant sucking sound. Scary stuff.

    I pray I’m right, and location based economics continues to matter. If I’m wrong, I pray I made it to the investment class by the time it takes place. Manufacturing was slaughtered by competing with a globalized workforce, now I imagine the same thing will happen to white collar jobs as they are forced to compete with a global workforce. The office based model protected them. Tear down that wall, and say goodbye to the white collar workforce.

  149. Hold my beer says:

    Pumps

    People still had dialup internet in the late 90s. Broadband and T1 were uncommon to rare for residential use. Fios wasn’t founded until 2005. Satellite internet for homes didn’t really become workable until the last decade.

    For a history teacher you seem to lack a lot of knowledge on events during your lifetime.

  150. Boomer Remover says:

    Got my second shot in Sewell yesterday. Stopped to see an old friend in Burlington County to see how the toothless pine dwellers live.

    They are moving into a new house. Heard about their friends house shopping – and bidding 10’s over asking – which sparked their interest. They were the tenth couple to see a house that’s been on the market for four hours and took it. Their current house sold in nine days. 375K all cash offer.

    None of these people have any business harvesting equity and sizing up.

    Any theories on how all this is going to end?

  151. Phoenix says:

    I’d like to see a movement toward tax incentives for firms who hire and locate in America.

    They have done that. Then the company lies. Then there is an investigation, accusations, court battle, and lastly, a settlement for pennies on the dollar.

    Bill Burr had the answer to it during one of his comedy skits. It was about the only time no one laughed at his joke, cause it was not a joke, and he was right. Honestly I think the audience thought wow I can’t believe he just said that.

    The court system in America makes it profitable to steal.

  152. Phoenix says:

    toothless pine dwellers

    Why do teeth need their own health insurance plan? Are they not part of the rest of the human body?

  153. ExEssex says:

    WSJ — JPMorgan Chase & Co., Salesforce . com Inc. and PricewaterhouseCoopers are among the major firms looking to unload big blocks of office space, the latest sign that remote work is hurting demand for this pillar of commercial real estate.

    Large companies typically sign office leases for a decade or longer, giving them few options for reducing their footprint beyond trying to sublease floors to other tenants. At the end of 2020, 137 million square feet of office space was available for sublease across the U.S., according to CBRE Group Inc. That is up 40% from a year earlier and the highest figure since 2003.

    While sublet space increases during every recession as struggling businesses look to cut costs, firms typically add office space when the economy picks up again. But this time many of the companies ditching real estate are doing well financially; they say they need less space because they plan for more employees to work at least part time from home even after the pandemic is over.

    That raises the prospect that demand for office space could be permanently lower at some companies, much like the rise of e-commerce has been driving down demand and rents for street-level retail.

  154. The Great Pumpkin says:

    If we do indeed see WFH taking place, SELL your real estate immediately. Put it in stocks or buy real estate in the cheapest international locations with the infrastructure in place to support WFH.

  155. ExEssex says:

    10:15 I’m staying in a home right now in Napa (air B&B) which sold for $91k in 1991.
    Current owner paid $350k in 2007. 880 square feet 2/2 very nicely finished.
    Current Zestimate? $750k

  156. The Great Pumpkin says:

    It could have been done. It might have been slower, but WFH could have been done. I was on aol message boards in 1997. Instant messenger was real, did you forget that?

    Hold my beer says:
    March 30, 2021 at 10:15 am
    Pumps

    People still had dialup internet in the late 90s. Broadband and T1 were uncommon to rare for residential use. Fios wasn’t founded until 2005. Satellite internet for homes didn’t really become workable until the last decade.

    For a history teacher you seem to lack a lot of knowledge on events during your lifetime.

  157. ExEssex says:

    10:19 I cAnt seLL nOw….’ I would have no where to take my Zoom call from!!

  158. chicagofinance says:

    grim: don’t you know about this crap? The NJBPU basically holds a gun to the head of utilities to force them to buy power from your neighbor at bullsh!t artificial prices. We collectively pay from your neighbor’s array through a built-in subsidy in our own electricity cost. Fine for us, but what about the poor? Another Musk handout.
    Holy Solyndra Batman!
    https://www.njcleanenergy.com/renewable-energy/program-updates-and-background-information/solar-transition/solar-market-faqs/#question_16

    grim says:
    March 30, 2021 at 9:41 am
    No, they’ll simply opt not to buy your surplus grid feed.

    From what I can tell, there is no requirement that they actually do it. Or, they’ll cut the rate for grid-feed power to nearly nothing, and resell it as a profit.

    So many options. How about the delivery charges double or triple to subsume generation rates.

  159. 3b says:

    The office based model protected them. Another pumpism stated as fact.

  160. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Yes, because it was location based, it limited the market labor pool. Wake up!!

    3b says:
    March 30, 2021 at 10:27 am
    The office based model protected them. Another pumpism stated as fact.

  161. 3b says:

    Pumps no it could not have been done period. If you had any idea what it is we do, you would not make such an embarrassing statement. Its one of the most ridiculous things you have ever said. And you bring good points!!??

  162. 3b says:

    No it did not limit the market pool. Another good point?

  163. The Great Pumpkin says:

    What do you think happened to manufacturing jobs? Once they swindled our politicians to open up international markets for American manufacturing by enacting unfair trade agreements masked in “free trade,” it was all over…giant sucking sound. Now apply this to the white collar field when you create a remote based job position. Goodbye high salaries…goodbye jobs.

  164. The Great Pumpkin says:

    3b,

    You are a mental midget.

  165. Libturd says:

    Cavemen were the original work from homers.

  166. Phoenix says:

    Well, WFH has it’s pros and cons, but then there is hybrid. For someone who loves WFH-or wants to move away from the office, hybrid will clip their wings a bit.

  167. ExEssex says:

    10:33 hello flex schedules….hello commercial real estate crash…..
    Hello for sale sign on a Wayne Highway house.

    Upside? You could move to Orange and be closer to your students.

  168. Hold my beer says:

    Pumps

    Do you not remember how slow dialup was? Video calls didn’t even exist. Good luck generating a report from Access or another database on 14.4 dialup.

  169. 3b says:

    I am the mental midget?? Says the teacher who believes WFH could have been done 30 years ago, who is the expert on corporate America, having never worked there in any capacity , who then lashes out with middle school name calling when his idiocy is pointed out. Tell the class for those who do not recall, why a teacher from Wayne hates WFH for those who work in corporate America.

  170. ExEssex says:

    I think they should make the broadband network a utility and provide cable modems for everyone. Nationalize the whole thing. f-ck AT&T and others.

  171. Phoenix says:

    HMB,
    Plus you can now hack data at high speeds. Things that take years to design can be stolen in a matter of seconds. Crazy isn’t it.

  172. Phoenix says:

    Ex,
    You mean like Arpanet? Go back to the original roots?

  173. The Great Pumpkin says:

    LONDON (Reuters) – Most major global companies no longer plan to reduce their use of office space after the coronavirus pandemic, though few expect business to return to normal this year, a survey by accountants KPMG showed on Tuesday.

    Just 17% of chief executives plan to cut back on offices, down from 69% in the last survey in August.

    “Either downsizing has already taken place, or plans have changed as the impact of extended, unplanned, remote working has taken a toll on some employees,” KPMG said.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-economy-ceos/major-employers-scrap-plans-to-cut-back-on-offices-kpmg-idUSKBN2BF005

  174. ExEssex says:

    When was the last time KPMG was right about anything?

  175. Yo! says:

    “No One says:
    March 28, 2021 at 3:35 pm
    Comparing YoY median changes probably overstates home price appreciation because the mix is shifting to the high end due to the bifurcation Covid economy.
    Case Schiller price indexes are up, but less.”

    I agree. Case Schiller, and index that compares resales of the same houses came out today. House prices across 11.2% across 20 large cities during the measurement period (several months ago). Not as high as some indexes but the highest Case Schiller growth in 15 years.

  176. Yo! says:

    Increased 11.2%, not across 11.2%

  177. joyce says:

    3b,

    Shut up.

  178. joyce says:

    I say that with love.

  179. Libturd says:

    “I think they should make the broadband network a utility and provide cable modems for everyone. Nationalize the whole thing. f-ck AT&T and others.”

    That’s what 5G will be.

    No need for a wired connection to the home. You’ll get a 5G hotspot/router which you can place anywhere in your home and everything will connect via wifi the rest of the way. About 5 to 10 years down the road, they’ll put a 5G cellular chip in every internet device and you won’t even need a router anymore.

    FYI, in Costa Rica, telecommunications (and beer manufacturing) is nationalized. So are a lot of other things that are really rights and should not be profit making businesses. This is Democratic Soc1alism. 98% of what is private here in the US is private down there. Being a 2% soc1alist isn’t as bad as it seems. We are already that here when it comes to K-12 education, social security and every time you cash a stimulus check. But remember, all Soc1alism will immediatelly turn you into a toilet-paper and bread line waiting red commie.

  180. 3b says:

    Joyce: Thanks. I did deserve that. And I will, at least for the rest of the week.

  181. Phoenix says:

    Socialize the internet, make it government run.

    You have very little privacy now, you won’t have any in the future at all.

    Sounds pretty dystopian.

  182. ExEssex says:

    Oh 3b don’t listen to that post-menopausal crank.

  183. ExEssex says:

    11:34 not the internet….the pipes that lead to it … duuuh

  184. Walking says:

    Pumps you realize office space per worker has been shrinking for the last 20 years until its final evolution into the open space/unassigned seating design we have now. Again if you want to make a big bonus and you are a manager desperate to show big $ savings you embrace wfh. The cost savings are enormous, and you can make a nice 10 year career rolling it out for your company if it has not embraced it. The office layouts are hip and colorful, the youngsters love the slides and swing set conf room tables, the older bosses like sharing a bean bag chair filled conf room with a skirt. It makes everything fun and so flirty , like a governor meeting

  185. Libturd says:

    Phoenix,

    There is no such thing as privacy anymore unless you live off the grid and never purchase or rent property. No bank accounts, no on the books job and no taxpaying or investing either.

    Otherwise, just assume they know everything because they do. And they have since long before dial-up internet.

    In the mid 90s, one of my company’s clients was a list company. They occupied two floors in one of those fancy 6th avenue addresses in the mid 40s. They had an absolutely stunning office in one of the nicest buildings I ever stepped into in Manhattan. What did they do? They created sales specific lists of Americans who say, owned a European car, played golf and smoked pipes. Or women who owned a Hoover vacuum, read Mademoiselle and had an advanced degree. They had lists based on every demographic and marketing trait you could possibly think of. It was so targeted, my mind was completely blown. Then I saw how much they charged for access to this data? My mind was blown again. A list containing about 50K ultra-targeted nams might cost upwards of a million dollars, depending on what you were planning on marketing to them. Of course, the internet and search engine (intenet list developers and sellers) killed their business nearly overnight. But what a gig it was.

  186. Phoenix says:

    Lib,
    But now you wear a watch that has your heart rate, whose data has been used in court or just by a spouse.

    You can minimize your footprint.

    And essex, anything that goes down that pipe can be mined. anything.

  187. 3b says:

    Essex: I have to acknowledge I have DPS. So I need to take a break!

  188. ExEssex says:

    I’m an open book too poor to steal from too rich to care.

  189. No One says:

    Yo,
    That’s why I put in the offer on my new house in FL right away during my December visit. I could see that in the future era of low interest rates forever coupled with WFH and rising state income taxes in NJ and elsewhere, high income people with locational flexibility are likely to flee to wealthy enclaves in Florida. So we closed on one of the few homes for sale in Feb, and I’m shocked to see that there has been almost nothing come on the market in that area since then, and what little has come on the market is coming on 25% higher than I would have expected. $2m to $6m for SFH, and over $1m for 2br condos, over $2 for 3br quality condos.
    The guys I met at the adjoining country club are mostly retired executives, or doctors or lawyers, while the next generation of still working people (like me) are just starting to show up and pay the $50k initiation fee. 20 courts and 45 holes of golf, and they are active.

  190. Chicago says:

    See NJ Coast “happier in China” post

    Phoenix says:
    March 30, 2021 at 11:34 am
    Socialize the internet, make it government run.

    You have very little privacy now, you won’t have any in the future at all.

    Sounds pretty dystopian

  191. ExEssex says:

    12:29 I lived in FL for about 5 years. Once you get exposure to the SoCal weather, it’ll make Florida feel like the humid swamp it really is.

  192. 3b says:

    I have to get a new phone after having my current one over 5 years. Pissed Apple took the button away.

  193. Hold my beer says:

    3b

    You just got to swipe up. It only took me a day or two to get used to it. I got an Xr about 2 years ago. I will replace it or its battery this summer. Battery is starting to go. Now only has 84% capacity.

    I had an iphone 7. That model had an issue with the motherboard. It would die about every 7 months. I had applecare so I kept getting free phones. third time it died they gave me a few hundred dollars in credit on my dead phone towards an Xr.

  194. Libturd says:

    “You just got to swipe up.”

    That’s what my mom taught me when I was 3.

  195. Fast Eddie says:

    That’s what my mom taught me when I was 3.

    LOL.

  196. Trick says:

    When the next accuser comes out, Cuomo will allow 150% capacity in restaurants. Now that he cant add anymore ages to the vaccine.

  197. Libturd says:

    Hey beer man,

    Me thinks the new variants are just starting to do their thing down there. Just as your governor is giving everyone the green light to party. Stay away from Dimmit County for sure.

    Nj is around 24% inoculated, but Texas is only at 18%.

    As for the impact of UV rays? It didn’t help Texas last Summer with the less contagious strains and some of the population taking precautions. What’s it going to be like this Summer with no protections and a much more contagious variant(s)?

    Hope I’m wrong. Usually I am not. Get your vaccine ASAP.

  198. Nomad says:

    Lib,

    Verizon 5G Home available in limited areas. Work already being done on 6G. I wonder if VZ will monitor it with AI and if something goes bad that they can’t fix remotely, the drone just drops a new one off like a Dominoes pizza.

    https://www.verizon.com/5g/home/?cmp=KNC-C-HQ-NON-R-BP-NONE-NONE-2K0VZ0-COE-GAW-71700000070573597&gclid=EAIaIQobChMI9bC_hc_Y7wIVEo3ICh224gCNEAAYASABEgLIr_D_BwE&gclsrc=aw.ds

  199. Hold my beer says:

    Libturd

    I always wear a mask and only go to stores when they open in the morning.

    https://apps.texastribune.org/features/2020/texas-coronavirus-cases-map/?_ga=2.207529043.1142923458.1617116512-385582595.1616439789

    I think more than half of texas has already had Covid. So far 13% are fully vaccinated and another 11-12% have had at least one dose. If spring breakers bring the new variants back I expect to see a boom in cases a few weeks after easter.

    I got my son vaccinated yesterday on his first day of eligibility. Had to go into the boonies but the waiting list in my area is around 2 million people. Meanwhile 45 minutes south of dallas tons of places had openings. But people figured that out over the weekend and that area is all booked too.

  200. Fast Eddie says:

    Stupid question.. maybe… lol… but which site is the best one to go to in an attempt to get a vaccine appointment?

  201. Trick says:

    Neighbors house closed at $580, 30k over ask. They did not take the highest bid.
    History
    04 sold for $460
    13 sold for $480
    16 sold for $460
    21 sold for $580

  202. Libturd says:

    Any improvements between 16 and 21?

  203. Fabius Maximus says:

    Ellen Coleman had never received so many offers on a house in her 15 years of selling real estate.

    She listed a fixer-upper in suburban Washington, DC for $275,000 on a Thursday. By Sunday evening, she had 88 offers.
    “The offers just kept coming,” she said. “I felt like Lucy with the chocolates. I’m thinking, ‘This is just out of control.'”
    Of those 88 offers, 76 were all-cash, said Coleman, who works for RE/MAX Realty Centre. There wasn’t even enough time for all of the bidders to visit the property. She said 15 offers were sight unseen.

    https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/29/success/when-will-housing-market-cool-off-feseries/index.html

  204. Hold my beer says:

    Fast

    I used vaccinefinder. Focus on local independent pharmacies and doctor offices, especially rural ones or ones in minority areas.

    Check with pediatrician offices too. Some vaccines you have to be 18+ for and for some reason pediatricians are getting those. That’s how I got mine.

  205. Bystander says:

    3B,

    His father should have worn a jimmy 40 years ago. “Mr. innovation” has zero clue about the true innovation last decade to support a full WFH workforce. Also, no clue on the far reaching regulatory governance that dictates data privacy and security of information. Using AOL chat in business world….jesus. It is coming. I deal with it everyday. We had to bend today to Indian resources being located in cities far from our operating center. You need talent asap then rules will change. It only takes a few major companies to suck talent away then you need to compete or wither. It will take years to iron out via legislation but you would be foolish to think wage pressure won’t come to NYC area once people stop coming to office.

  206. Fast Eddie says:

    Beer,

    Thank you. It seems as though you still need to be 65+ in NJ until further notice. I checked out a few places already using that site but everything appears to be booked anyway.

  207. BRT says:

    Eddie, every single twenty something is vaccinated in the schools already. Right now, all my 16 year old students are signing up. There is no “eligibility”. It’s all for show. Every single one of them checks off smoker if asked somewhere.

  208. Bystander says:

    Fab,

    Those are real estate developers coming all cash. Free PPP money from govt will do that. Flip, flip, flip..

  209. Hold my beer says:

    Fast

    Check if any of the tribal nations in new york or another nearby state have opened to out of staters.

  210. Fast Eddie says:

    BRT/Beer,

    Thanks again. I used to smoke a looong time ago… I guess I smoke again. ;)

  211. 3b says:

    Fast : I know lots of people who got the vaccine and are not 65. I go back next Monday, and my wife in two weeks. My future son in laws got his , and the CVS are starting to offer the vaccines as well.

  212. 3b says:

    Bystander: Oh I agree wage pressures will definitely come to NYC . As I pointed out to that individual companies were already becoming geographically agnostic to use the corporate term. Covid just sped the process up. There are two big NYC firms that spent the last 5 years stuffing everyone into one building. Now with Covid, no need to add more real estate, just keep a bunch of people WFH. I feel for these folks that are paying a premium to live close to NYC, because many of them won’t need to be.

  213. 3b says:

    Hold : I like to push buttons! I was perfectly content with my old I phone, but it’s just breaking down. The 11, with no button and being so big, is not appealing to me.

  214. crushednjmillenial says:

    Archegos and Bill Hwang . . .

    He owns a 6400 sq. ft. home in Tenafly on 1 acre, with a lovely $74k annual property tax bill. Bought for $3.5m in 2008. Wonder if he will need to liquidate it or if his primes will get a judgment and do it for him?

  215. ExEssex says:

    Lib come to think of it they have 5G in Malibu. It activates automatically on
    My phone AT&T. Uploads are blazingly fast. They also have a drive though lobster roll restaurant. Jews love shellfish and fast upload speeds.

  216. Fabius Maximus says:

    Gary, your BMI qualifies you.

    I got my first shot yesterday and it gave me a bit of a kicking. I had to take an anti histamine last night as I started taking a reaction. Felt like garbage for most of today.
    Reading up it seems like symptoms from the first shot are more severe for those that have been exposed. I am sure I had it back in Feb 2020 before lockdown. So I’m not sure what the second is going to feel like.

    For those that need it, go through the CVS website. Pick a nice GQP state like Montana. Start adding your details and you will get to a screen where you put in your zip code. At that point you will switch into looking for NJ appointments. At around 11:30PM start hitting F5 to refresh your browser and the appointments should start opening up just before midnight.

    https://www.cvs.com/vaccine/intake/store/covid-screener/covid-qns

  217. ExEssex says:

    Congrats Fab! I drove 80 miles each way to get my shot.
    Moderna. I hear #2 suuuuucks.

  218. Libturd says:

    “Jews love shellfish and fast upload speeds.”

    Yes they do. Restaurant Depot has Chesapeaque Oysters at 50 for $20. Will be stopping in next week to grab some. Also have boneless chicken thighs (I like them way better than the breasts) for $1.09 a pound. Breasts are $2.09 lb. for a 10 lb. bag.

  219. Fast Eddie says:

    Gary, your BMI qualifies you.

    If Gary’s current BMI qualifies him, then the whole country is f.ucked. I just searched for the last 20 minutes or so, no dice at the moment. Gonna expand the radius.

  220. Juice Box says:

    Follow this Twitter bot for vaccine appointments.1/2 million new doses shipping out to NJ this week, should be plenty of appointments.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/nj_vaccine?lang=en

  221. Juice Box says:

    I had a cigar to celebrate my Covid vaccine on Thursday, that makes me eligible.

  222. Juice Box says:

    Also try your local phar*macy for a standby list. Show up late afternoon, last appointments are at 5:30 for CVS and many times people do not show that day for their appointment and they are allowed to take standby and vacc*inate them on the spot as to not waste va*ccine.

    Also the CVS store will call you after you book online day of your va*ccine appointment and tell you to come in anytime that day, so pick any time slot you can.

  223. 30 year realtor says:

    Twitter bot works great. My daughter made an appointment for herself and 3 other people yesterday using that bot.

    Had my 2nd Moderna this morning. Do far all I feel is tired. First shot gave me Covid arm.

  224. No One says:

    I’m getting my 2nd Moderna shot Thursday. I heard drinking a lot of water the two days before the shot might help. I’ve heard of people staying in bed a day or two after the second shot. I hope we all hold up fine through it.

  225. 3b says:

    No One : My Daughter works at a large university research hospital, and they said the day before and the day of the shot as well. My second one next Monday. Might need Depends drinking all that water!!

  226. BoomerRemover says:

    First Pfizer shot gave me covid arm, a stiff neck and 24 hours after the shot I had a fever, chills and passed out for the night, at 5PM. Woke up the next day and was fine.

    I just had my second shot yesterday and feeling a little lethargic but not much else, waiting for the shoe to drop as I read the second KO’s most.

  227. joyce says:

    Didn’t you post a comment/article telling people that claim they had covid without a test to shut up?

    Fabius Maximus says:
    March 30, 2021 at 4:14 pm

    I am sure I had it back in Feb 2020 before lockdown. So I’m not sure what the second is going to feel like.

  228. Bystander says:

    3B,

    I just looked at my LinkedIn. NYC Recruiter that placed me at old IB almost decade ago recently changed his title to “Recruiter, Contingent Workforce and Executive Search” . Guys bread and butter used to be placing good people like me on contract at banks then getting perm conversion (which he got). If his new title does not ring bells across delusion land, I don’t know what will. That is future- a few execs with contingent short term workers to fill what can’t be outsourced elsewhere..the new bread and butter.

  229. Hold my beer says:

    For Phoenix and Fast

    “We have women swinging umbrellas at other women on sidewalks because they literally are… fighting over who was in line first,”

    https://www.wfaa.com/article/news/politics/north-texas-red-hot-housing-market-buyers-contracts-no-guaranteed-final-sales-price/287-015807ac-44e8-4199-a383-682d79cd953e

  230. The Great Pumpkin says:

    The Fourth Surge Is Upon Us. This Time, It’s Different.
    A deadlier and more transmissible variant has taken root, but now we have the tools to stop it if we want.

    https://apple.news/A7stN813aQS2E9HZey34d_Q

  231. chicagofinance says:

    Why did the Jew stick a $100 bill in his wife’s box?
    Jews like coming into money.

    Libturd says:
    March 30, 2021 at 4:22 pm
    “Jews love shellfish and fast upload speeds.”

    Yes they do. Restaurant Depot has Chesapeaque Oysters at 50 for $20. Will be stopping in next week to grab some. Also have boneless chicken thighs (I like them way better than the breasts) for $1.09 a pound. Breasts are $2.09 lb. for a 10 lb. bag.

  232. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Pumps called this for how long?!

    “A num­ber of forces have merged to fuel the red hot hous­ing mar­ket, in­clud­ing mort­gage rates drop­ping be­low 3% in July for the first time ever. Mil­lions of mil­len­ni­als are ag­ing into their prime-home­buy­ing years in their 30s. New-home con­struc­tion has lagged be­hind de­mand and home­own­ers are hold­ing on to their houses longer.”

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-home-price-growth-accelerated-in-january-11617109259?st=s9ws2rtpqwc7mzm&reflink=article_copyURL_share

  233. Libturd says:

    Terrible.

  234. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Specifically this..

    “Mil­lions of mil­len­ni­als are ag­ing into their prime-home­buy­ing years in their 30s. New-home con­struc­tion has lagged be­hind de­mand and home­own­ers are hold­ing on to their houses longer.””

  235. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I believe in hybrid, but I don’t believe the office is dying just yet. Maybe 4 day work weeks, but the office, nor the city, is dying just yet.

  236. chicagofinance says:

    I’m here all week. Try the fish.

    Libturd says:
    March 30, 2021 at 9:04 pm
    Terrible.

  237. Libturd says:

    The smoked fish, I presume.

  238. ExEssex says:

    8:51 delectable

  239. ExEssex says:

    I may be the last man under sixty that loves herring.

  240. ExEssex says:

    Some fine basketball being played tonight.

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