From the WSJ:
Millennials Are Supercharging the Housing Market
Alex and Michelle Angert lived the last years of their 20s without a permanent address. They moved out of a small Manhattan apartment in 2018 to stay in short-term rentals around the U.S. before embarking on a yearlong honeymoon to travel the world, starting in the Philippines.
When the pandemic cut their travels short last year, Mr. Angert, 31, decided to take a job in public relations in Richmond, Va. He and Mrs. Angert, who is also 31 and works at a healthcare tech company, started house hunting this spring. After losing out on multiple offers, they raised their $400,000 budget. In July, they plunked down $635,000 on a three-bedroom ranch in a tree-filled lot near a Richmond country club.
“I would have had all of these regrets in life if I didn’t travel,” Mr. Angert said. “But it feels like the right time to settle down and put down some roots.”
For years, conventional wisdom held that millennials, born from 1981 to 1996, would become the generation that largely spurned homeownership. Instead, since 2019, when they surpassed the baby boomers to become the largest living adult generation in the U.S., they have reached a housing milestone, accounting for more than half of all home-purchase loan applications last year.
The generation’s growing appetite for homeownership is a major reason why many economists forecast home-buying demand is likely to remain strong for years to come.
The Cornell omicron anecdotes are terrifying. 97% vaccination rate. Out of 26k students, nearly 900 tested positive this week, and at the current run rate, will be closer to 1500 over the course of a week (6%). Oh, before you point to the unvaxed students, the student vaccination rate is 99%.
“Virtually every case of the Omicron variant to date has been found in fully vaccinated students, a portion of whom had also received a booster shot,” said Vice President for University Relations Joel Malina in a statement.
First non grim
Hearing the omicron estimate for New Jersey is now 10-15% of cases. 5x higher than the rest of the country.
Now they are waking up. How long did I say this on this blog? You guys still think I lucked into it with the pandemic?
3b, how long did you belittle me with this conventional wisdom that was wrong? I knew it, and you beat me up for it like you do now with wfh.
“For years, conventional wisdom held that millennials, born from 1981 to 1996, would become the generation that largely spurned homeownership. Instead, since 2019, when they surpassed the baby boomers to become the largest living adult generation in the U.S., they have reached a housing milestone, accounting for more than half of all home-purchase loan applications last year.
The generation’s growing appetite for homeownership is a major reason why many economists forecast home-buying demand is likely to remain strong for years to come.”
The pandemic actually hurt my predictions, which you guys fail to grasp. The housing market going off even with a black swan event is a testament to how strong this housing demand really is.
Please run him again. The amount of $hit he will face will be amazing to behold. Lines of riot lined up against him during primaries. His own son lays the balance square unlike red hat dolts here.
“He’s got to condemn this shit ASAP. The Capitol Police tweet is not enough,” Trump Jr. messaged Meadows about his own father, adding: “We need an Oval Office address. He has to lead now. It has gone too far and gotten out of hand.”
CDC says NY metro is 13% Omicron cases.
Rest of country 3%
Dear Millennials,
I want top dollar for my house and expect that you will offer 10% above my asking price. That’s how we do it here in Upper Haughtyville. Just for ambience, I have the slow cooker set to simmer so that the Rheingold and cabbage aroma will greet you as your house tour guide subconsciously calculates their heist… um.. take while scribbling your offer letter.
And Millennials… here’s a little gift from me to you after you sign the contract:
https://tinyurl.com/4dnhsdc3
Love,
Fat F.uck Fast Eddie
No way the vax rate at Cornell is 99%.
I suspect that 5-10% of the students in Cornell have a “religious exemption” and are not vaccinated.
The point is still valid though, scary stuff.
Omicron brings us closer to the end. The natural course of events was for covid to attenuate and weaken. That’s what it’s doing.
I’m also officially calling bullshlt on the nj data. No way the non vaccinated are producing the ratio of positive tests and hospitalizations the state claims. They claim “most” of the positive tests and hospitalizations are non vaccinated. The vaccination rates are too high for that to be possible with the surge of cases.
I see that some democrat governors are tired of “following the science” and declaring that the covid emergency is now over. It looks like the democrats squeezed every drop out of that “following the science” thing and are ready to move on to the next distraction while fleecing, duping, misleading. hoodwinking and deceiving the muppets.
Breakthrough case data for NJ is hidden right? We only see it when the governor tweets it, supposedly less than 1% of the vaccinated.
Last tweet I can find is Dec 8th.
61,521 breakthrough cases (1.04%)
Breakthrough cases are far higher than 1%, that’s nonsense. Its not included in the dashboard data.
For example, Oklahoma just yesterday reported that it thought up to 20% of November covid cases were breakthrough.
Didn’t the White House already ban use of the phrase “Pandemic of the unvaccinated” in anticipation of this?
https://covid.cornell.edu/testing/dashboard/
That’s what Cornell is reporting, and they are saying it’s confirmed proof of vaccination by uploaded vax cards.
100% of professors, 99% of students (grad and undergraduate). It’s the non-professor staff (other employees) dragging down the rate at 93%.
Latest hospitalization study I can find says 15% of people admitted are Breakthrough infections. Data is from June, July, August, and September 2021 ((87%, 87%, 86% and 83%, respectively).
https://www.healthsystemtracker.org/brief/characteristics-of-vaccinated-patients-hospitalized-with-covid-19-breakthrough-infections/
One could surmise the actual infection rate for vaccinated is much much higher.
Murphy is full of shlt and a dirt bag but I give home credit for not being taken for a ride this time around by the fear mongers. Maybe it was the close call in the election but he seems to have largely tuned out. NY and Philly have decided to shout themselves in the foot again and he is resisting it.
Anecdotes worth shit, but I sure did hit the breakthrough lottery with my extended family. Because I count only 2 non-breakthrough cases in my extended family, and 5 breakthroughs.
There is an article from today on nj herald. Periscelli said breakthrough hospitalizations are 20-25%. Not sure what that snapshot includes. Uk rate is higher with a similar vaccine rate. I’ll believe theirs.
https://www.njherald.com/story/news/coronavirus/2021/12/15/nj-covid-vaccine-rollout-anniversary-waning-immunity-hospitalizations-rising/6480708001/
The number of breakthrough cases has risen steadily since the beginning of the vaccine rollout. Overall, fully vaccinated people accounted for only 1% of all positive tests over 10 months, but in the last week of November they made up 21% of all positive cases.
The bulk of COVID patients being treated in New Jersey hospitals still remain unvaccinated. But 20% to 25% of hospitalizations now involve partially or fully vaccinated people, Persichilli said — an increase from the summer, when nearly all severe COVID cases were among the unvaccinated.
Time for warp speed 2. What are we waiting for?
Clear that a multivalent booster (Delta-Specific + Omicron) is critical now.
Get it done, get it out NOW.
It happens.
https://youtu.be/5RG4SwKJy_A?t=5
Nice older Chevy. Needs a new windshield, however, see picture 4
I wonder if they are legit vax cards. I’m not saying they are not, just wondering since I know a lot of college kids have the fake cards.
grim says:
December 15, 2021 at 8:53 am
https://covid.cornell.edu/testing/dashboard/
That’s what Cornell is reporting, and they are saying it’s confirmed proof of vaccination by uploaded vax cards.
100% of professors, 99% of students (grad and undergraduate). It’s the non-professor staff (other employees) dragging down the rate at 93%.
Link
https://www.govdeals.com/index.cfm?fa=Main.Item&itemid=109&acctid=16867
Common sense.
grim says:
December 15, 2021 at 9:28 am
Time for warp speed 2. What are we waiting for?
Clear that a multivalent booster (Delta-Specific + Omicron) is critical now.
Get it done, get it out NOW.
Time for warp speed 2. What are we waiting for?
The producers, you know, those who actually make something.
The ones that corporate love to outsource. Or replace with robots. Or just plain to refuse to give a raise to.
I’d like to think that kids at Cornell are not dumb enough to risk their admission/expulsion on a fake vax card.
The “producers” are stepping off the treadmill in large numbers, or jamming it up to slow it down.
Keep threatening them and watch what happens. They are tired of corporate.
FDA updated Covid guidance was last issued in February 2021, and it does not address multivalent MRNA Covid vaccines. It’s not part of the plan, therapeutics that are now approved is however.
Biden’s folks have pushed some people out of the way….Not sure if we will get a multivalent vaccine anytime soon however.
The person(s) in charge of vaccine regulation at the FDA just retired, and they put someone else in charge. Note these folks clashed with Biden over vaccinating the children etc.
“Marion Gruber, who leads the Office of Vaccines Research and Review, will depart the FDA at the end of October. Philip Krause, Gruber’s deputy, will leave the agency in November.”
Peter Marks who made waves last year during the (some say rushed) approvals of the MRNA vaccines during Warp Speed is now in charge that vaccine department at the FDA.
At some point, everyone is just going to have to accept reality of the data, which already happened in other countries months before today. Breakthrough is incredibly common at this point. The vaccine efficacy wanes. And once it drops, it likely drops off the side of the cliff.
We went through 3.5 months of school with essentially no restrictions in building. Total free for all. We had, at most…most….1 case per week in a school of 1200. Now all of the sudden, we have over 50 documented in a 2 day span in a 97% vaxxed school. And those numbers are climbing by the minute.
The other factor is we make little distinction in vaccine types when considering vaccination status.
New studies out showing that J&J is almost entirely ineffective against omicron, no neutralizing antibodies.
The prudent decision would be to halt the administration of J&J in the US in lieu of the more effective vaccines, especially considering omicron will be the dominant strain in the next few weeks.
Agreed.
grim says:
December 15, 2021 at 10:05 am
I’d like to think that kids at Cornell are not dumb enough to risk their admission/expulsion on a fake vax card.
“but I sure did hit the breakthrough lottery with my extended family.”
Are they aware that Zurek is not a Polish vaccine?
Thank you.
Fast Eddie says:
December 15, 2021 at 7:37 am
Dear Millennials,
I want top dollar for my house and expect that you will offer 10% above my asking price. That’s how we do it here in Upper Haughtyville. Just for ambience, I have the slow cooker set to simmer so that the Rheingold and cabbage aroma will greet you as your house tour guide subconsciously calculates their heist… um.. take while scribbling your offer letterYea
Cornell thing is worse than reported, because the shutdown occurred into the final exam schedule. The reading period was probably last week, and exams started this past Thursday. So once the final exam/ project is submitted, people bail out of Ithaca. Tons of students are bringing Omicron home for the holidays. I’m sure at least 50% of people are gone by now unless quarantineibg.
Warp Speed 2?
Nah, there’s still a lot of money to be made on Warp Speed 1. Remember, a company is an individual when it comes to financing campaigns and that individual can contribute anonymously and without limit.
Stevens concluded his dissent by writing:
At bottom, the Court’s opinion is thus a rejection of the common sense of the American people, who have recognized a need to prevent corporations from undermining self government since the founding, and who have fought against the distinctive corrupting potential of corporate electioneering since the days of Theodore Roosevelt. It is a strange time to repudiate that common sense. While American democracy is imperfect, few outside the majority of this Court would have thought its flaws included a dearth of corporate money in politics
A little gift here for the democrats: If you haven’t done so already (never underestimate the f.uckery and skullduggery of the democrat party), find a way to combine the health and economic effects of covid being tied somehow to climate change and you will have your followers and the main stream media on the verge of 0rgasm.
Oh, there’s no place like Omicron in your home for the holidays,
‘Cause no matter how far away you roam,
When you pine for the sunshine of a friendly gaze,
For the holidays, you can’t beat Omicron in your home……
I know someone, double masked, 3 shots. Just tested positive.
In other news Gorman the CEO of Morgan Stanley says his rush back to the office was wrong, and that he expects Covid to disrupt work life for most of next year.
Across the pond in London, JP Morgan is deciding which employees will be sent back home to work.
What don’t you understand about this? It’s not that they want all their workers home, but it’s the lawsuits they are worried about. It’s also much too difficult to coordinate all the workers when you have to deal with covid protocols. You know how much it costs to have to test them regularly?
It’s just funny that you assume they want all their workers working from home. They don’t, but they have no choice. Is Cornell shutting down because they think remote is better?
3b says:
December 15, 2021 at 11:21 am
In other news Gorman the CEO of Morgan Stanley says his rush back to the office was wrong, and that he expects Covid to disrupt work life for most of next year.
Across the pond in London, JP Morgan is deciding which employees will be sent back home to work.
Are these signs of inflation hanging around? Lower consumption…deflationary forces.
“U.S. Retail Sales Slow With Holiday Shoppers Facing Inflation, Shortages
November spending outpacing price gains from year earlier, but cooled from October”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/us-economy-november-2021-retail-sales-11639498894?mod=hp_lead_pos1&mod=hp_lead_pos1
https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-economic-activity-slowed-in-november-on-property-slump-weak-consumption-11639551530?mod=hp_lead_pos4
Pumps: Did I say that? No, in fact I posted deliberately to see how long it would take you to respond, and of course you took the bait. No surprise. You could just ignore me like I sled you to, but no, not you.
It just prices once again how terrified you are of WFH , and of course I know why. Have a magical day!!
Nah, there’s still a lot of money to be made on Warp Speed 1.
America runs on money.
Lib, sorry, no chance yesterday to join. Severe staff shortages where I work-barely get time to eat these days.
Have a magical day!!
I assume Urban Dictionary and not Disney…
haha.
As food prices soar, so do obesity rates.
3b,
What are you five years old. You bait me and then complain about my responses. Weird dude.
They are still making mad loot on Warp Speed 1 selling you an outdated product. The reality has been, it’s been outdated since delta.
Office building owners have seen this before. Companies announce they are preparing to return to the office in full force, only to delay plans when a Covid-19 variant appears. That’s what happened on a large scale when post Labor Day return to work plans were upended by the delta variant. And to a lesser degree, January could experience something of a repeat performance, writes Peter Grant.
A number of companies have modified or delayed plans as uncertainties swirl around the Omicron variant. The list includes Lyft, Ford, Uber and Google, though not all point to the new variant as the reason. Small business owners that rely on office workers already sound frustrated by the prospects of further delays. “January gets pushed back to February. February will get pushed back to March,” said Rick Passarelli, owner of a Bobby Van’s steakhouse in Manhattan.
Retail property owners have had a tough time during much of the pandemic, but open-air shopping centers are having their moment, reports Kate King. Landlords filled 17 million square feet of additional real-estate space for these shopping centers last quarter, a 49% increase from 2019. Grocery stores are often the anchor, said CBRE’s Brandon Isner. “It’s almost an automatic flow of foot traffic, because grocery is the greatest retail need,” he said.
The Wall Street Journal has written a lot about problems plaguing New York City’s Times Square district during the pandemic, but more recently there’s been some good news. Real-estate investment trust Paramount Group and a partner have agreed to pay more than $190 million for the retail space that houses M&M’s World, a 25,000-square-foot confectionery and gift shop in Times Square. That represented one of New York City’s biggest retail transactions since the start of the pandemic, Kate King writes. -WSJ
Pumps: Self awareness in short supply again, as you do the exact same thing. Of course you don’t like it. Typical.
Covid 19 is like a tire fire.
Your mask needs to cover up your nose.
Forget the wisdom from Fauci and WHO.
Trust the guy who sells you pillows.
Everybody knows horse tranquilisers and laundry bleach
Is all you need to stay alive.
So let’s all congregate on the nearest beach,
And chant what we hear on channel five.
Grandma coughed once and passed away.
It must have been the food she ate the other day.
Don’t you dare blame it on the Chinese flu.
We all know it was from some week old Chinese food.
And so I’m begging you to change your mind
’bout your hesitancy to get the jab
The Constitution won’t mean a damn thing
When your test results come from the lab.
And so I’m begging you to change your mind
So you don’t end up getting very sick.
Be a great help to all of mankind.
Or remain, a stupidly selfish prick.
Sea limited, now $13 away from putting my puts ITM. Thank you Cathie Wood, only took like 3 weeks. All unprofitable garbage is already reverting to the mean.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SE?p=SE&.tsrc=fin-srch
Ray Diallo ain’t everyone’s cup of tea, a real b@sterd I have heard from a couple of people I know who worked at his firm. Anyhow, interesting interview with him over on MarketWatch. New book out too. Makes some very valid points whether you like or don’t like him.
Radical Capitalism at work.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/interactive/2021/investors-rental-foreclosure/?itid=hp-top-table-main
Omnicron surge . . .
The US 7-day average of new, daily confirmed covid cases is currently at approx. 120k cases/day.
Here are the three times that we have crossed into 120k cases/day, and the date when we fell below that level:
(1) Holiday season 2020 surge: Nov. 9, 2020 – Feb. 5, 2021
(2) Delta surge: Aug. 10, 2021 – Sept. 26, 2021
(3) Omnicron surge: Dec. 6, 2021 – present
^US national totals, worldometer
Further, we have had 50m covid cases in the US, and we still have new infections. I’m surprised because I’d imagine 2x or 3x are infected on any given day, but they either don’t ever test or self-test at home and don’t report the results.
Final anecdote – several people (acquaintances or people I know professionally) I know have had, or at least claimed to have, covid in the last few days. My anecodatal take is that this wave was way more concentrated from my perspective than previous waves.
3B on housing prices and supply chain . . .
I am not an economist. I am not a high-level participant in the housing industry (i.e., I am not an executive at a large homebuilder) or anything like that. I am just a low-level housing industry participant.
In my opinion, I would say that the supply issues are impeding homebuilding and partly driving higher housing costs. Here’s how, off-hand. I am not looking it up, but in approximately summer 2020 or fall 2020, it began to be clear that nationally housing prices were going up, across-the-board. However, in summer 2020, lumber prices, for one example, did their first rip high. Copper had a phase like that, too.
So, high prices for housing should have been met with more supply. But, homebuilders were facing higher materials costs and higher labor costs AND WORST OF ALL – supply delays. Personally, I am still facing 6-month waits for window fabrication, for example, when the standard was 0-6 weeks for simple double-hung windows for my entire career. There was a phase of time where I had a construction project held up due to hardwood floor material unavailability. Random smaller bits and bobs have been out-of-stock at HD and supply houses alike periodically.
So, due to high anticipated housing prices in 2021, every developer with an option on land or holding land should have greenlighted every housing unit they could. In the housing starts stats, to my eyeball, it looks like the rate of supply increase is higher than the pre-covid trend that started going upward in 2010 or so, (albeit, I have not calculated the derivative) but maybe not as dramatically as we might expect given the change we’ve seen in median US home sale price.
Of course, high housing prices are more driven by availability of finance, consumers shifting resources into housing rather than things like dining out, and consumer preferences. Maybe the fourth or fifth variable influencing price is the current ongoing supply chain problems.
Grim dead wrong on the J&J vaccine, it is the best of the lot, it does not prevent infection but it provides “protection” against severe outcomes that lasts much longer than the mRNA vaccines, there is research that shows fewer hospitalizations and deaths in breakthrough infections with J&J. I’d gladly take the infection vs. a higher risk of death or complication. They might eventually start recommending a mix and match strategy and stretching the window between first and second dose. At this point none of these vaccines will prevent the infection so pick which ever one you’d like so you don’t end up in hospital.
Until the administration basically says no more vaccines because it’s outdated and pushes for a new formulation and expedites it we will not see it. That’s the issue big Pharma is making a killing and as the breakthroughs become more common they are pushing the boosters, why spend resources on a new vaccine when you can see the heck out the existing one and you have a buyer for every dose.
Just based on the changes on the spike protein I’d wager the existing antibodies have very poor affinity to omicron and it requires having very high antibody level to prevent breakthrough. My money is when the dust settles the efficacy of the existing vaccines to prevent infection hovers around 10% and less for single shot J&J recipients.
Crushed: Nice analysis on the housing issue. Thanks.
Since you guys always give me advice, here is yours. You made the short money, now keep it by getting out. Do not keep playing this game. Like I said, most gains are in 1 or 2 days on the year. You get caught in that trap, god bless you. The risk is becoming real. Keep going this month, but you have to be insane to keep doing this at these levels.
BRT says:
December 15, 2021 at 12:25 pm
Sea limited, now $13 away from putting my puts ITM. Thank you Cathie Wood, only took like 3 weeks. All unprofitable garbage is already reverting to the mean.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SE?p=SE&.tsrc=fin-srch
“Of course, high housing prices are more driven by availability of finance, consumers shifting resources into housing rather than things like dining out”
It is availability of cheap money. People are using peadpod, uber eats, instacart and every other delivery service. More expensive than going out when you add all surcharges, fees and tips.
” they plunked down $635,000 on a three-bedroom ranch in Richmond”
Huh, I guess many of us chose wrong career. Who knew a client success partner and senior c*ltural impact spe*ialist would be path to riches? Here I was getting masters and certs and busting behind in financial services, all to afford house that cost 60k less in CT.
Of course, high housing prices are more driven by availability of finance, consumers shifting resources into housing rather than things like dining out, and consumer preferences.
And greedy Boomers.
Since you guys always give me advice, here is yours. You made the short money, now keep it by getting out. Do not keep playing this game. Like I said, most gains are in 1 or 2 days on the year. You get caught in that trap, god bless you. The risk is becoming real. Keep going this month, but you have to be insane to keep doing this at these levels.
Shaddup, if I sell this put today, I’m up 600%. It’s already a free bet for me. There is no trap. I won. It’s now just a question of, how big.
The FED had to crater to the whiny inflation fear mongers. Guess all the politicians crying about inflation worked. Hope they don’t derail the economy with a bs move.
The sky is falling!! Run!! Omg!! Inflation!! Run!!
Inflation already peaked imho.
BRT,
If you are really shorting, you can lose it all and more. It’s dangerous, pure gambling.
Don’t worry blumpy..Cathie said she will return 40% (snicker, cough) annually over next 5 years. She was wearing swami hat and traditional Hawaiian dress from her new office location in tax friendly, talentless Tampa FL.
It’s demand. Plain and simple. Cheap money was available from 2010 on….why didn’t the housing market rage during that period. It actually went down with falling rates. It’s demographics.
Bystander says:
December 15, 2021 at 1:53 pm
“Of course, high housing prices are more driven by availability of finance, consumers shifting resources into housing rather than things like dining out”
It is availability of cheap money. People are using peadpod, uber eats, instacart and every other delivery service. More expensive than going out when you add all surcharges, fees and tips.
There was no demand in January 2020, dipsh*t. Neighbors lost 100k easy selling that months after 5 years. What changed? Did millennials hold their convention at Javits and say “now is the time to overpay 30-40%!”
Just remember, she was in FAANG before it was cool (back when her funds started). She was in bitcoin before it was cool. She was in Tesla before it was cool. She knows her stuff, yet you people mock her. At this point, she is one of the greatest stock pickers of all time, and you guys take dump on her.
Bystander says:
December 15, 2021 at 2:29 pm
Don’t worry blumpy..Cathie said she will return 40% (snicker, cough) annually over next 5 years. She was wearing swami hat and traditional Hawaiian dress from her new office location in tax friendly, talentless Tampa FL.
Секретики
“Hope they don’t derail the economy”
I hope they do and their is 50% sale on 2021 GLS 450s that everyone can suddenly afford.
Bystander: Nice how the Fed dumps transitory and adds elevated; I know what that means. Glad they are finally stepping in and doing what needs to be done; hopefully it’s not too late.
You are lost. Inflation is not the problem, deflation is. How long were people crying for inflation? Why? And now they get it, but it overshoots due to supply chain bs, and they act like the sky is falling.
3b says:
December 15, 2021 at 2:53 pm
Bystander: Nice how the Fed dumps transitory and adds elevated; I know what that means. Glad they are finally stepping in and doing what needs to be done; hopefully it’s not too late.
Effective January 1, 2022, Hobby Lobby’s full-time hourly wage will climb from $15 – a rate they set in 2014 – to $18.50. Over the last 13 years, the national chain has raised its minimum wage 12 times.
A preacher’s son from a poor background putting his money where his mouth is while the left speaks in platitudes, proverbs and promises.
3B – Fed is now in panic mode instead of patience.
Juice,
You are right, they should have more patience, but the got damn politicians are forcing his hand due to impatience. They know nothing about economics or inflation, just see rising prices and run around like a ckn without a head. The sky is falling!! Run!!
Just explain to me why we would have runaway inflation with drastically slowing population growth combined with an insane amount of disruptive tech. Someone please explain. This in not 1970.
This is ridiculous. WTF are you riding a bike on that road for? Of course, always blame others. It’s the american way.
https://www.nj.com/passaic-county/2021/12/34m-verdict-against-nj-county-in-motorcyclists-pothole-crash-is-upheld-on-appeal.html
Pumps
A true Cathie fanboy would get a tattoo of her face across his chest or abs.
Yet, Ed, the right crowed that raising to $15 would destroy small business. Seattle would collapse..Denver? Unliveable…sure, they are on side of workers
lol…my body is sacred, would never ruin it with a tattoo.
Hold my beer says:
December 15, 2021 at 3:26 pm
Pumps
A true Cathie fanboy would get a tattoo of her face across his chest or abs.
US Virgin Islands places one year note deal (BANS) with a juicy 9 percent coupon one year maturity, private placement.
lmao …you have a point.
Bystander says:
December 15, 2021 at 3:28 pm
Yet, Ed, the right crowed that raising to $15 would destroy small business. Seattle would collapse..Denver? Unliveable…sure, they are on side of workers
So things are much worse than everyone was telling you. Who knew? Stu knew. Good luck with the high P/E disruptive trash. Enjoy this last rally.
Fast
Is that preacher’s son the same guy who purchased millions of dollars worth of looted art from Iraq?
The market loves faster taper, rate hikes, Omicron about to unleash and unbridled inflation..who knew? Back to 36K. Thanks Joe
bystander I’ll tell you exactly what changed in the pandemic, people were now trapped in their “homes”. Where an apartment before sufficed it quickly lost it’s lustre while people worked from home and needed additional space. Now add super low rates, discretionary spending shifting from dining/vacations/experiences to housing as people were spending every waking hour in their homes. Basically it pulled demand forward, the demand for the next 3-5 years occurred in 2020. Certain markets were already doing very well from 2016-2019 but the pandemic dumped accelerant on them, this caused spillover. The focus of the millennial buying block spun 180 degrees from urban markets to more suburban SFH. I think prior to pandemic housing was more moderated, sustainable, etc and now it is manic, what we are seeing is not normal.
A good Christian soc*alist too, Hobby Lobby CEO used PPP for own personal Museum of Bible.
In July 2020, Forbes magazine reported the museum had received between $2 million and $5 million from the Paycheck Protection Program to retain 249 jobs (a calculated annual average salary between $38,000 and $97,000). In a statement to the magazine, a museum spokesperson said that the “Museum of the Bible applied for and received a PPP loan to pay our employees while the museum had to stay closed, taking in no other revenue.”[15]
JCer,
“What we are seeing is not normal.”
Exactly. It is artificial demand driven by absurd rates and fear leading to rash decisions and debt. It is also helps when they pushed DTI limit up to 50% over last few years. A nice cater to millennials and their debt traps/student loans. Change the rules and loans for everyone..but it is not a bubble.
And 5 percent down is still quite common.
I Bonds rates at 7.12, nice inflation hedge but dull of course.
Pharmacy I am at now
getting my kids vaccinated is loaded with people getting PCR tests too, big line. If they don’t get their shot soon I am NOPING out of here, appointments are running 20 minutes late already.
Frig in mod, line at phar*m for vax is loaded with people for PCR tests too, vax is running 20 minutes late for my kids already. Going to nope out of here soon if they don’t get it going.
“$SPY is on fire flow-wise, another $3b last night, now $22b since end of Nov, I don’t think any ETF has ever taken in that much money in such little time. It’s now #3 in YTD flows w $30b. For context it ranked 2,758th (dead last) in July w/ $11b in outflows.”
https://twitter.com/ericbalchunas/status/1471116283076915203?s=21
Yes, it’s not normal, you have a bigger demographic group than the boomers finally going to work in the housing market. This was inevitable. Huge wave of demand suffocating the supply.
You guys still aren’t listening to me and it’s pretty sad.
Bystander says:
December 15, 2021 at 4:36 pm
JCer,
“What we are seeing is not normal.”
None of this matters unless you have the huge demographic group to push up demand. You ignore what I have been saying for almost 10 years now. Why, I don’t know.
JCer says:
December 15, 2021 at 4:21 pm
bystander I’ll tell you exactly what changed in the pandemic, people were now trapped in their “homes”. Where an apartment before sufficed it quickly lost it’s lustre while people worked from home and needed additional space. Now add super low rates, discretionary spending shifting from dining/vacations/experiences to housing as people were spending every waking hour in their homes. Basically it pulled demand forward, the demand for the next 3-5 years occurred in 2020. Certain markets were already doing very well from 2016-2019 but the pandemic dumped accelerant on them, this caused spillover. The focus of the millennial buying block spun 180 degrees from urban markets to more suburban SFH. I think prior to pandemic housing was more moderated, sustainable, etc and now it is manic, what we are seeing is not normal.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ray-dalio-im-significantly-concerned-about-inflation-164744915.html
How long have I been arguing this?
Wonder how much Manchin took as a payoff to scrub a deal Democrats pretended to sell but never intended to?
Fall guy needs to be paid.
The United States Senate voted 89 – 10 on Wednesday to authorize $770 billion in defense spending over the next fiscal year.
This year’s National Defense Authorization Act, an annual must-pass piece of legislation, will now head to President Joe Biden’s desk with $25 billion more in the final budget than he initially requested.
“You guys still aren’t listening to me and it’s pretty sad.”
Per main article, what will be sad is when someone wakes up and asks wtf am I paying a cultural impact spec*alist for..then he has to sell bc can’t afford mortgage and stay at home wife, 2 kids. He lists for 700k and sits on market for a year and sells for 500k.
So far from my dinner outing on friday – 2 / 8 tested positive, 1 triple vaxed, 1 double, 1 person negative, 5 TBD..
Naah,
She will divorce him, and stay in the house for 5 years not making a payment while he gets a room in a boarding house. 100 Tinder dates later and she is back on easy street.
Phoenix,
The inevitable vote of both parties- the absurd jobs program/grift of military industrial complex. It was in shambles before Trump entered, right?..even though Obama provided billions more. We have no fiscal conservatives, all snowflakes and whiners. The Rs pretend to be, it is a joke..like how they all voted against debt ceiling only after there was no threat of default. I am sure they can go back to constituents and claim they fought off those Dem social*sts.
Let’s just simplify this once and for all.
Repub vs Democrap
Good cop vs Bad Cop.
Either way, they both plan to take you down. They are not your friends, not on your side, they only want to make sure they get paid, look good, or gain status.
Any questions?
grift of military industrial complex.
America got a swift kick in the butt and embarrassed on the world stage by a handful of middle eastern men with box cutters and a middle school education on flying a plane into a building.
Then, its usual outrage fashion, like a bunch of angry bees whose nest got smacked they went and took the bait, burning trillions in search of “justice” by attempting to bomb someone back to the stone age, being so blind not to realize that’s where they already were, and that the effort would be futile- even after watching the Russians do the same thing.
Like dogs chasing after a car. And just as successful.
Phoenix: Maybe more money for Ukraine and Taiwan.
Phoneix – For the Defense $770 billion. The initial vote on the measure was 89-10, but in an unusual move Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) came back to the Senate floor to ask to switch his vote from “yes” to “no.”
No news why my assumption is some wokeism…..to support Senator Kirsten Gillibrand perhaps…. You can bet it has nothing to do with the amount being spent…
So . . . Biden is literally not going to have the Fed Government pay even $1 of outstanding student loan debt?
If the feds forgave $1k per debtor, it’d be $44B. They couldn’t even tuck this into the $1.7T build back act somewhere? Not saying I am in favor of BBB, but it seems like if the Dems want to pass a hodgepodge social spending bill, some student debt relief would have made the cut.
Anyone think Biden gets BBB through without student debt relief and then just cancels some debt by executive order right before the 2022 midterms?
BTW – If the housing market is so strong why does Biden’s BBB plan have money to build 1 million new “affordable” rental units….
A million new units..There are already 43 million rental units in the USA…Why do dirty renter landlords need this?
$65 billion to preserve and rebuild public housing… Most of that old stock was badly designed and should be knocked down not preserved.
$25 billion for rental assistance, vouchers etc. Another $24 billion for Housing Choice Vouchers for 300,000 very low income…
Another $15 billion to help build or preserve more than 150,000 rental homes for lower-income….These old units should be replaced…
crushed – re: “Biden is literally not going to have”
Don’t be silly. He won’t be campaigning for re-election in 2024 a while off yet, why waste that little golden easter egg now when you can pop it out of your pocket for the election? You can bet he is saving it, and it will arrive just in time for a few million Millennial and Gen Z voters to cast their ballot. It’s all they will be talking about how Biden shaved XXX dollars of their debt…
Lib – Diallo and his dinner buddies have been pitching currency allocation, not just the usual asset allocation. Flow of funds to perhaps through some magic back door they created to China, and other easier places to park capital like Japan, Brazil and Mexico etc.
Not much different when rappers started pimping Euros in their videos during the housing crisis. Same tune now just a different beat, but it’s not Euros this time..
So anyway back from the Pharmacy getting my kids their Pfizer shot, there were no less than 20 people there for a PCR test, most were wearing masks. However I happen to be an armchair expert on the aerodynamics of a cough from a high speed face cannon. The cake hole and schnozzle can expel thousands of infected droplets per cough or sneeze anywhere for 20 MPH to 100 MPH depending on ferocity which elevates the velocity. It’s very doubtful a flimsy cloth mask will do much to keep it from anyone’s airways within 20 feet surrounded by sheet rock, shelving full of overpriced toothpaste and drop ceilings..
I sent my kids to the candy isle while we waited and when we were done, we did the the entire disinfectant wash cycle when we got back to the station wagon….
God help us we are flying in six days and the tickets are non-refundable unless the flight is cancelled…..
So anyway back from the P*har*macy getting my kids their P*fizer shot, there were no less than 20 people there for a PCR test, most were wearing masks. However I happen to be an armchair expert on the aerodynamics of a cough from a high speed face cannon. The cake hole and schnozzle can expel thousands of infected droplets per cough or sneeze anywhere for 20 MPH to 100 MPH depending on ferocity which elevates the velocity. It’s very doubtful a flimsy cloth mask will do much to keep it from anyone’s airways within 20 feet surrou*nded by sheet rock, shelving full of overpriced toothpaste and drop ceilings..
I sent my kids to the candy isle while we waited and when we were done, we did the the entire disinfectant wash cycle when we got back to the station wagon….
G*od help us we are flying in six days and the tickets are non-refund*able unless the flight is cancelled…..
Very bullish scenario Powell laid out with three rate hikes in 2023.
I’ll believe it when I see it.
Juice,
Hope you don’t get screwed with the tickets. Good luck!
Juice: Biden ain’t running in 2024, Dems have to figure out how to get rid of Harris.
Shorts got smacked end of the round today. They had it too easy, but watch them all get recked at some point.
JCer – Hate to tell ya but J&J was designed the same way as the MRNA vaccines. The side effects of infatuation with ass scratching and well bananas for breakfast, lunch and dinner, really no biggie. In the lab they grafted a monkey adenovirus with only the Covid spike protein.
So you cannot get a monkey flu great but it’s the same DNA sequence from the original Covid Wuhan strain for the spike protein, it has not been reformulated for Delta or Omicron etc.
Update on the explosive numbers in my school. That 56 is probably a lot higher given many people are either declining tests due to their vaccinated status or just not telling the district because they confirmed it from an at home test. So, we went 3 months as a complete free for all with only 11 cases and we have 56 cases, almost all in the past week. Seasonality rules the day yet again.
8/30/2021 – 9/24/2021 1 Case
9/25/2021 – 10/22/2021 4 Cases
10/23/2021 – 11/19/2021 6 Cases
11/20/2021 – 12/17/2021 56 Cases
Juice, we clearly had insane amounts of transmission through our classes the past 3 days. Kids wearing cloth masks situated all the way across the room from positive kids got it. I think 6 teachers got it this week as well. My take is, it’s probably Omicron or some other more transmissive variant. High schoolers are in that time spot where their vaccine is wearing off. The nice weather stopped the heat/air from kicking in and stagnated the air. Perfect storm.
3B – A solid crisp $1 bet it is, and to top it off a nice pint of Guinness at Tommy Foxes…I will see you there the Sunday after he announces.
Juice: I will take that bet, either way I win, I get Guinness we can mix it up and go to Gerry’s Place in Northvale. He is the Fox from Tommy Foxes. Great Nachos!!
BRT – Our school system covid dashboard was taken down mysteriously. Orders from somebody….. there are plenty of staff and students out this week for covid…
3B- I will win, 1,056 days until the election, you are discounting weekend at Bernie’s effect..
Who really needs relief in this country are the working stiff households hovering under $250K AGI.
Also, I can’t imagine Biden running for reelection, he’s just too out of it as it is.
Juice: Are you flying international?
“G*od help us we are flying in six days and the tickets are non-refund*able unless the flight is cancelled…..”
My understanding is that non-refundable does not equal unable to reschedule. You can bank the credit and reschedule at a later time.
My kids pediatrician instituted a policy where you need a negative rapid test to show up at the office. I saw her in March of 2020 where people were wearing tyvek suits to fetch groceries and she was like come on in! I went a few days ago and asked about it, she said she is seeing an avalanche of pediatric covid cases and it forced her hand.
HaHa = last one to not run for re-election was LBJ….he developed a conscience on that day and he also announced would cease all U.S. bombing of Vietnam and would seek a negotiated end to the war.
How did that end? Well we just approved another 770 Billion.
Be thankful those bombs won’t land in New York or New Jersey…We all have the best defense our $$ can pay for.
Juice, the difference is in the administration of the spike. The mRNA vaccines create massive amounts of spike protein in very short time, our bodies are very efficient at creating proteins from RNA messages. Basically the mRNA technology is more efficient/effective than an actual virus, so the immune system is inundated with the spike very rapidly. The genetically engineered adenovirus produces spike proteins but the mechanism creating them operates like a virus because it basically is a virus. The seroprevalence of spike protein therefore is lower and likely for a longer duration. When looking at vaccine recipients what you see with mRNA is a very quick spike of IgG and then it falls off a cliff. It’s more moderated with the adenovirus vaccines. Ideally the vaccine presents the pathogen as similarly as possible to an actual infection.
Global debt surged to 226 Trillion in the past year, largest gain since WW 2.
Juice: let’s say you are right, what about Harris? Perhaps a nice ambassadorship somewhere in Europe she’s never been there you know.
Just in: Bruce Springsteen sells master recordings to Sony Music and publishing to Sony Music Publishing for $500,000,000. Cutting it pretty close to the tax cutoff date as most people in the industry are off for a good portion of the month of December.
It is not unusual for private equity to purchase a pooled catalog of works at this price point, it’s pretty high for a single performer/songwriter’s body of works.
JCer – let’s assume we are both wrong for now.
We both know and hopefully both agree the formulation can and will be improved on all vaccines and the government regulation needs to be updated sooner than later.
3B for now Harris faces a tough uphill battle and as nomination process will be a mess as usual.
Juice, they need to update the spike protein for sure, it is many generations out of date and the antibodies produced have weak affinity for the currently circulating virus. Warp speed 2.0 should be a reality. my commentary on the mRNA vaccines is more about the technology, my suspicion is that later generations of mRNA vaccine technology will have more of a time release formula that will more close mimic an actual infection. Furthermore rather than just producing the spike they probably should focus on the entire envelop so that the immune response has a wider target.
Dec 15 (Reuters) – Apple Inc (AAPL.O) is delaying its return to office plans indefinitely, Bloomberg News reported, while the company said it has temporarily closed three stores in the U.S. and Canada after a rise in COVID-19 cases and exposures among the stores’ employees.
The company’s employees were previously set to return to offices on February 1, according to the report, citing a memo sent by Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook.
Growing worries over the rapidly spreading Omicron coronavirus variant have derailed several companies’ plans for a return to normalcy.
Grim – as always thanks for paying the bill..
Always great stuff by great people……
kinda pointless to even consider shutting down schools. Kids are just going to hang out with each other and spread it anyway if you do.
Is the stock market pricing this virus correctly?
Was surprised to get such a good price for the roof on my rental. 10,400 for the second and third floor roof. Includes fixing any interior damage from second floor leak. Had quotes as high as 26k. I had this same company do the entire siding for the main house and rear house. Also put in a new front door entrance back in 2010 for 29k. So maybe they gave me a good price as a returning customer.
“No one who raises money in D.C wants to see the party’s find common ground on anything on either side. Reason. You can’t raise money if there’s no conflict.”
LA County spiking….
Another 19 COVID deaths were reported by the county on Wednesday, giving the county an overall virus-related death toll of 27,369.
The county also confirmed another 1,850 new COVID infections, raising the cumulative pandemic total to 1,551,117.
“However I happen to be an armchair expert on the aerodynamics of a cough from a high speed face cannon.”
Do you happen to know the speed it is expelled through a smooth walled eight millimeter Portex?
” A solid crisp $1 bet it is, and to top it off a nice pint of Guinness at Tommy Foxes…I will see you there the Sunday after he announces.”
Lookin’ good Billy Ray
Feelin’ good, Lewis.
Juice
Use saline nasal spray before and after the flight.
HMB,
I swear my daily Flonase is probably helping too.
Biden is now suggesting we all wear filtered diapers as well.
“The second is what I call the fecal-aerosol route, whereby the virus enters the body via sewer gas or even smaller, yet still virus-laden particles known as aerosols. The ability of the virus to successfully traverse either depends on whether it can remain infectious and replicate at sufficient concentrations as it slogs through the digestive juices of the human gut.
There is some virological evidence that SARS-CoV-2 can, in fact, replicate in the gut and shed through feces.”
Two thieves crashed a luxury SUV worth upwards of $250,000 shortly after stealing it from a Wayne residence.
Pumpy, best hide your Beemer, lest someone mistake it for a Bently.
And don’t leave the keys in your car, muppets.
Look at this prune. How do we allow someone this ancient to have the power and authority they have? Yeah, they report. My a zz.
Pretending to be “Good Cop.”
Term limits already.
https://bit.ly/3e1fbFq
Beemer is a motorcycle
Bimmer is a car
It’s how we know who the newbs are re: Bavaria
BTW those krauts build nice cars.
Sim simma, who got the keys to my bimma
Really don’t understand the move to extend school QT from 10 days to 14 days with no ability to test out early, no consideration of vaccination status?
Is this following science?
Yes they can test out early…..but it’s up to the local yokels….
CDC updated guidance..
Updated Nov. 16, 2021
Who needs to quarantine?
People who are not fully vaccinated and are determined to be a close contact of someone with COVID-19 need to quarantine. Please refer to the Steps for Determining Close Contact and Quarantine in K–12 Schools infographic to help determine who is a close contact.
They should:
Get tested immediately and quarantine (stay at home and away from other people) immediately for a period of 14 days from the date of their last exposure, unless they receive different instructions from their school official or a public health official.
If they initially test negative, test again 5-7 days after the date of their last known exposure and continue to quarantine for the full 14 days. If they initially test negative, test again 5-7 days after the date of their last known exposure to determine if they have developed COVID-19 as early as possible. If this test is negative, continue to quarantine for the remainder of the 14-day quarantine period. Isolate immediately if they develop symptoms of COVID-19 or test positive and notify the school so that the school can conduct any necessary contact tracing.
If the person who is quarantining does not develop symptoms of COVID-19 and does not test positive or is not tested, that person can go back into public spaces, including school, on day 15.
Options to shorten quarantine provide acceptable alternatives of a 10-day quarantine or a 7-day quarantine combined with testing and a negative test result. Consult with your local public health department or school official about possible options to shorten quarantine.
Who does NOT need quarantine?
People who have tested positive for COVID-19 on a viral test within the past 90 days and have subsequently recovered and remain without COVID-19 symptoms do not need to quarantine. However, close contacts with prior COVID-19 infection in the previous 90 days should:
Wear a mask indoors in public for 14 days after exposure.
Monitor for COVID-19 symptoms and isolate immediately if symptoms develop
Consult with a healthcare professional for testing recommendations if new symptoms develop.
People who are fully vaccinated do not need to quarantine if they come into close contact with someone diagnosed with COVID-19. They should:
Get tested 5-7 days after their last known exposure—even if they don’t have symptoms.
Wear a mask indoors in public for 14 days following their last exposure or until their test result is negative.
Monitor for symptoms of COVID-19 for 14 days and get tested and isolate immediately if they develop symptoms of COVID-19.
The kids are pretty much done with Covid. The masks are off 100% of the time they are not in the classroom. I’m sure it’s the same for most of the world. It’s a good thing Om is looking less dangerous to those who catch it.
re: Those who smelt it dealt it?
It was determined that in the 2003 SARS crisis in Hong Kong it was spreading in an apartment complex called Amoy Gardens approx 300 people in that Apartment complex got it via the sewer pipe gas etc. Bad design there was no water barrier in a “trap” and the gas leaked out etc.
Amoy May Fun?
Omi could possibly be the surge to end all surges. 4x more transmissible than Delta, new data indicating lower mortality rate as it favors the airways as opposed to the lungs (more virulent, less dangerous). Evades vaccine protection just enough to be able to infect a huge proportion of vaccinated individuals (and potentially conferring a more durable protection).
We had our opportunity for multivalent boosters and missed it, so now the virus is going to take care of that for us.
Poised to burn through the remaining unvaccinated populations like wildfire. South is going to see an off-season surge, it’s already burning through college campuses down there. For us up here, we’re going to get the surge we expected, and then some. Like Chi mentioned, kids going home for Christmas break is going to spread this everywhere.
Not to mention that omicron now makes vaccination status seemingly irrelevant.
The silver lining of the left’s fear mongering and knee jerk stuff, besides Biden’s approval cratering, is the younger generations are getting a good look at what big government means. Always carve outs and loopholes for favorites but the sneaker person gets put through the wringer.
Open the borders to covid positive third worlders but you have to stick needles in your arm and wear a diaper on your face for no reason. Now they get it.
Pretty sure no kid is thinking that, but ok. Republican party is going to be irrelevant in a generation because of how out of touch they are.
Goat, you are a one-trick pony.
Your last sentence might have made sense if the red team wasn’t so vaccine hesitant. But since the morons (leaders) on your team chose to push freedom over vaccine, the point about the immigrants is kind of moot. Then again, I thought the problem with immigration was they were all criminals and mostly rapists. Just like our parents were when they immigrated.
Joke’s on them when they realize that the next generation are largely the kids of the immigrants they called dirty, diseased criminals.
Not necessarily. Liberty is still a winning message. A lot of the new arrivals, particularly Hispanics have a notion of what government overreach means.
The narrative of BIPOC, pale of color etc. being an monolithic block is a propaganda creation and of course racist generalization.
If you vote for trump, you ain’t black.
I am drinking coffee and this below is on. I start to laugh, but I don’t want to spit coffee all over the screen, so I hold it in, and it goes up my nose.
https://youtu.be/TC_CAa7nvvc?t=418
If you vote for Trump, you ain’t sane, regardless of color or creed.
But since the morons (leaders) on your team chose to push freedom over vaccine
Not sure what they think freedom is, but I’m pretty sure this is not it.
A core part of the American ethos has always been on the common good. Boys enlisted to go to war and die for these ideals. Eschewing individual responsibility because of political opinion isn’t freedom, it’s selfishness. Draft dodgers were never looked at in a positive light by anyone who ever dubbed themselves a patriot, so why exactly do vax-dodgers consider themselves patriots for doing the exact same thing? We celebrate sending kids to die of foreign beaches, who had no choice in that matter, because they would fight for America. Today, f*ck America, there is a 1/1500000 chance I might have a slight vaccine reaction. Makes sense.
Seems like freedom is really just a political talking point when it’s convenient to use.
The vaccine narrative has always been a lie. They knew it didn’t prevent the spread. Because of that experts said it was become leaky and eventually totally ineffective.
The only reason it became a mandate was the political considerations, Biden thought it helped his approval. It has nothing to do with the science.
The mandates have done a lot of damage to vaccine programs overall.
CDC is now modeling over a million infections a week and over 15,000 deaths a week just after the new year…and Fauci was out there yesterday saying there is “No need” for any variant specific booster.
Tell that to the families who will lose grandma and grandpa over the coming month even though they were “Fully Vaccinated” against only the original Wuhan strain…but not Delta which is a real killer, jury is still out on Omicron…
Cool, but that’s not your call to make. You were asked to pick up a rifle, you instead focused on your inability to go to war, because of your hangnail and irritable bowel, oh and you disagreed with the political position on why the war was even necessary.
Zero difference, god help us if we ever need to go to war with China. All you “patriots” will be the first ones looking for an exception. Bunch of pussies hiding behind “freedom”. The dead in Arlington would be ashamed that they gave their lives for this.
You know what millennials think about republicans and American conservatives? This.
Speaking of unvaccinated. NFL reported 100 new infections this week. Seems there are a few more out there other than Antonio Brown with a fake vaccine cards. There are only 1,696 players in the NFL…100 in one week seems like allot of infections if they are all fully vaccinated most got vaccinated over the summer.
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/nfl-covid-19-tracker-baker-mayfield-odell-beckham-jr-among-more-than-90-players-on-covid-list/
Politicians and bureaucrats are not omniscient. There’s always a blowback to everything they do. Imparting a “greater good” to the mandate is an assumption.
What’s funny, they always talk about the snowflakes. You know who is a snowflake, someone afraid to take a vaccine. What a bunch of pussies, yet in their mind they are somehow the tough patriotic americans.
grim says:
December 16, 2021 at 9:28 am
Cool, but that’s not your call to make. You were asked to pick up a rifle, you instead focused on your inability to go to war, because of your hangnail and irritable bowel, oh and you disagreed with the political position on why the war was even necessary.
Zero difference, god help us if we ever need to go to war with China. All you “patriots” will be the first ones looking for an exception.
Wave that f/ing flag while you mock a virus that is killing your fellow Americans.
Grim,
Thanks for so eloquently stating the selfishness of those who were and continue to be vaccine hesitant. It’s not even a party thing really.
Ooh, Fauci did not guess correctly. See, it’s a giant conspiracy. Grandma didn’t die of Covid. Nor did the other million Americans. Sheesh. The masses have always been asses. But the recent round of buffoons, who constantly spew the words, constitution and rights, just like their overpaid crony heros on Fox News, really take the cake. They are the most selfish, wrongheaded and just plain stupid people I’ve ever witnessed. Fauci, Fauci, Fauci. Give it a rest already. You wouldn’t listen to God, if he appeared in front of you. Why do you think Fauci is the end-all, be-all?
Stop weighing everything in political points, and think for yourselves.
Idk,
I’d put Musk, Zuckerberg, Pelosi, Trump, Biden, Bezos and of course Karen above them as being most selfish.
Lib, the obsession with Fauci is because he’s lying…again. There is an immediate need for an updated booster, and it should be made and given to at risk people as soon as possible. He’s stating it’s not needed. I’m sure they are in the process of doing it, because it is needed, while simultaneously lying to people to try to get them to take the existing product. At what point do we expect our public officials to sit down and actually present the data and the truth? Every lie out of his mouth, it enhances the distrust with the public, and it’s almost exclusively his fault.
Wow, I see Grim has gone full Dem stooge, joining Lib and a few others in anti-Rep blather while excusing the almost non-stop barrage of Dem incompetence. Funny thing is, as small business owners and/or small landlords, you guys live Dem malfeasance every day. Lib pens a desperate letter begging his town’s out-of-touch Dem leadership for relief, and yet he continues to support Dems — go figure! You guys are the very definition of schmucks, voting for and supporting a political party that hates private enterprise and hates people like you.
Card carrying Republican since I could register, so whatever you say. The big joke is RINO – has more to say about the party than than the political ideology.
America overshot it’s target.
By the time it reacts, the past threat is gone, and three more crop up.
It’s those Bimmer driving old goats that are the problem. By the time their orthostatic hypotension tickers kick into drive it’s too late every time.
There is another plan in place to mess up this dump, it’s already in the works, and you can bet America’s reaction time will be less than a paralyzed cat.
This v*accine hesitan*cy issue should not be that pol*iti*cal. I blame soc*ial media for it, it amplifies the voices of ever*yone this includes many people that should not be heard from ever, because they are crazy. I have had v*acc*ine conversations with many people friends and family and neighbors, many seem to lack the ability to reason and research the va*cc*ines for themselves so they turn to social media for guidance. Problem with that is you will find what you are looking for. Soc*ial Media is desig*ned to find the CRAZY for you and sell you a t-shirt, mug or something else along that journey down the rabbit hole. Just don’t ask the rabbit for refund if you get sick.
BTW the freedom/liberty thing is an interesting topic. It’s not just an American Red vs Blue issue.. In Europe for example with their Covid passes, stopping people from shopping and eating out or going on vacation if they are not vaccinated and now if not boosted. Wait I thought I was fully vaccinated why can’t I go shopping? Go get boosted or else…. Same with some other countries etc……there is a real worry about government reach. I don’t mean overreach, people have realized how much power their government has over their lives and they don’t like it. It’s only natural especially if it affects your livelihood like opening your business etc. I am actually surprised we have not heard of more incidents like the one where the guy slapped Macron.
One can believe in the Repubs for money, so vote for what is most important to them, but want other things.
They have a name for that, it’s RINO.
But first and foremost to a Repub, is business and money. They would throw live babies off a building to save cash. Well, after they force a woman to have them that is.
I’m a Republican too. Funny. I just know when my party has been hijacked by complete loons.
And BRT, you are right. But we all know Fauci and the rest of them are crooks. As long as our government is bought, it doesn’t care about you and me. It does care about sweetheart loans and paid trips to the Dominican Republic though. I will say this, I give Trump credit for not bowing to the lobbyists. Shame his brain was filled with retaliation and egocentric plans instead of what is best for you and me.
Republican needs to be redefined. The party has been hijacked. The Republican party that Grim felt aligned with has nothing to do with the Republican party that GOAT and SmallGov identify with.
Republican governor of Florida telling school districts they can’t mandate masks, or cruise lines they can’t require vaccinations, is overreach just the same.
This is the f*cking hypocrisy of it all.
The real republican response to this is – if I private business wants to mandate a vaccine, so be it. Let the market take care of it. People don’t need to go on cruise ships, if people don’t want to do it, they won’t spend their money. That’s all there is to it. Mandating this means policing this, which means growing government and enacting more regulations, where regulations aren’t required. If an employer requires it, so be it, it’s no different from anything else, republicans believe in right to work. Don’t like it, go work somewhere else, that’s all. If the workers don’t like it, they’ll leave, that easy.
Governors don’t need to get involved in local issues, the school has a board, the town is represented by that board. Let the school deal with it. If the constituents want it, so be it. Why do we need state government sticking their head in local issues? Again, why are we now creating new regulations, and needing to grow state goverment to police local government?
See? I’m the f*cking republican, and you are the puppet.
Juice,
Americans no longer have common sense, only narcissism.
Education level doesn’t help either, have a friend who is well educated and his whole family has Covid now, severe, no vaccine.
Covid might be the only thing to help solve the Real Estate shortage in America. Maybe we should embrace it after all. Try and look at the bright side of things for a change.
I think Repubs have a problem about where us medical people stick the needle. It’s ok in a vein, where we can infuse the antiviral, but not in the muscle where the vaccine goes.
I don’t have to understand crazy, just have to deal with it.
I do however like the efficiency of the system of Covid passes in Europe. They are now punishing only those that should be punished. Those 65 years and older who we all know are clogging up the hospitals and morgues because they refused to get vaccinated and now boosted. They are being forced to stay home in Europe. That is the way it should be here….There would not be 1,756 people in Hospital right with Covid now in New Jersey if they just stayed home. We all know the Boomers are to blame here, they should not be out and about at all, yet instead we are punishing the young for their transgressions. The young who go to work to pay the taxes to support Medicare and social security for the boomers and worse the children we send to school every day wearing masks.
You don’t realize how sick this sounds?
” If private business wants to mandate a vaccine, so be it.”
Yeah, this sounds sick A F.
I got Bezos and Zuck telling me what to do now?
Yeah sick A F.
Republicans lost their way a long time ago so much so that in 2016 they nominated a NY Liberal Democrat real estate huckster to be their presidential candidate.
What private business needs to do is get its tentacles out of the Government, which is supposed to be by the people and for the people, and not for the corporations.
Don’t complain about China and it’s war mongering when Apple is doing shady deals with them along with every other business.
Those racist, slave owning founding fathers would be turning over in their graves right now.
We live in strange times.
Think we’ll see more money printing and stimulus to cover the coming lockdowns while the FED tries to fight inflation?
Serious question?
If the only way to stop the spread of Omicron is through distancing, then the obvious choice is to shut down. Or at least it will become the obvious choice to the Dems who need to do more than just bang on pots.
“We live in strange times.”
Tell me about it. I see the end result every day.
This is engineered chaos. It’s no accident.
Phoenix: Dems are just as interested in money, no different than the Repubs, they all suck!
ok, so in that respect, I guess Murphy is as evil as DeSantis in that he puts down his own draconian statewide mandates on schools and threatens to cut the funding of districts who disobey him?
There is no stopping the spread of Omicron. There is only vaccination and taking care of your health to mitigate it’s impact. The days of stopping the spread are over.
If the only way to stop the spread of Omicron is through distancing, then the obvious choice is to shut down.
Not everyone can afford to “shut down.” Easy for whiny Boomer, they can just sit home and order food while getting their state/govt pension. Win for them. But the young person needs to sacrifice so Boomer with Bimmer gets theirs.
So where is the precious “American” Radical Capitalist money going to come from to pay for such “shutdown?”
They built nice ovens too
Ex says:
December 16, 2021 at 6:15 am
BTW those krauts build nice cars
Restaurants Across NYC Temporarily Close in Droves Due to COVID-19 Exposures – Eater NY
https://ny.eater.com/2021/12/15/22838282/nyc-restaurants-close-temporarily-coronavirus-exposure-omicron-variant
3b,
They are, but pretend they are not. Cue in Pelosi video I posted earlier.
They play good cop.
America should embrace a Chinese invasion at this point. It’s not like real “Red Blooded” Americans haven’t embraced Chinese labor-or Indian, etc in order to make them richer.
America sold out it’s own years ago for profit. Radical Capitalism at work.
Human nature sucks. Both sides are human beings driven by selfishness of what they want. Both sides do not listen to the other, they only want what they want. We are at peak selfishness, let’s see if the bubble pops.
3b says:
December 16, 2021 at 10:26 am
Phoenix: Dems are just as interested in money, no different than the Repubs, they all suck!
Phoenix.
I know. Nor will any0ne listen even if a shut down is mandated. But those who can afford it are best to stay at home. That’s what we’ll be doing. Schools will be going remote in January (I’m guessing). Yeah, it sucks. My kid has been waiting his whole life to play high school ice hockey, and Covid is just stripping it away.
I’m peeling a grapefruit as we speak.
BTW those krauts build nice cars
That go down in value by 50% once the 4 year warranty runs out.
Regarding Republicans and freedom…how do you explain trying to ban abortion if you believe, “my body, my choice”? In a sane world you would say these Republicans (for lack of a better term) are full of sh#t!
The lack of self-awareness from the so-called Reps like Lib is funny — in a sad kind of way. You whine about the Rep party having been hijacked, but have no problem supporting/excusing/voting for the modern Dem party that’s home to the likes of AOC, DeBlasio and Chesa Boudin. If those three don’t represent a hijacked party then I don’t know what does.
By the way, I agree with Grim that governors should allow private enterprises to determine their own COVID policies. Having said that, and having been in SW Florida for the past two weeks, this part of the state is now deep red and loves the gov — and is growing like gangbusters. Being here is a daily reminder of the difference between Rep and Dem governance.
Given the increased transmissibility of omicron, it’s unlikely that simple social distancing measures will have any real impact in stopping the spread.
The preliminary data is pretty ugly. 4x increased transmissibility, 70x faster reproduction rate in the airways. Not sure this is the absolute worst possible case, but damned if it doesn’t seem that way.
The non-vaccinated are going to get the chance they’ve all been hoping for now. If this doesn’t push us into herd immunity, I don’t know what would.
Lib,
Do you have any idea how many foreign bodies just one hospital in America removes because someone “fell” in the shower?
It’s so common you can walk into a store and predict what products you are going to fish out next just by their shape and sizes. Well, then again, not always. Cue balls are really hard to get out.
How do you get Americans to stay home when they can’t follow basic rules like look both ways when crossing the street, or don’t put billiard balls up there?
Nailed it. When did private business become more important than the individual? Just let them do whatever they want as long as it creates profit. Got it. Taxes, why should a business pay taxes, that’s for the serfs. Just jack up their property taxes, or raise the sales tax, and then blame the teachers for high property taxes. Better yet, just blame blue state democrats for the high taxes, not the fact that we gave away every tax break in the book to let this business profit at everyone else’s expense.
Money truly is the root of all evil. It makes people do some messed up stuff.
Phoenix says:
December 16, 2021 at 10:23 am
What private business needs to do is get its tentacles out of the Government, which is supposed to be by the people and for the people, and not for the corporations.
Don’t complain about China and it’s war mongering when Apple is doing shady deals with them along with every other business.
Those racist, slave owning founding fathers would be turning over in their graves right now.
Wife was boosted yesterday she is running a low grade fever of 100.4 with aches and pains. My youngest got his first Pfizer shot pediatric dose of 10 micrograms no issues at all today he is at school. My oldest got the full dose 30 micrograms, did a Ferris Bueller’s Day Off performance this morning and is home.
My 9yo daughter did fine after her second PFE dose. She ran a really mild fever (100f), and that’s only because I took her temp to check, she really didn’t complain much.
Grim, my distancing involves not leaving the house. Any of us. That will work. All hail the 85″ Covid TV I purchased nearly two years ago.
We’ve been watching the Will Smith National Geographic show on Disney+. Between my crazy surround and 4K picture, it is so encompassing to the senses. I almost lit the fireplace during the volcano exploring.
Noticing I’m able to find a parking spot closer and closer to school every day to pick her up though.
So that’s the most selfish area of our country right now, huh? Filled with red boomers adding to the debt while crying about lowering their taxes. Lost in the woods..
“Florida for the past two weeks, this part of the state is now deep red and loves the gov — and is growing like gangbusters. Being here is a daily reminder of the difference between Rep and Dem governance.”
If the only way to stop the spread of Omicron is through distancing, then the obvious choice is to shut down.
There’s no point in stopping the spread. Nothing works. It’s over. We lost.
Could you just imagine what would happen if the Government gave all choices to business when it comes to healthcare of American citizens like some here propose?
Hate to tell you, but your parents would be thrown in a dumpster alive with a thousand more and left to die rotting in the hot sun. Business wouldn’t even suggest paying for a casket or grave, it would dump your carcass in the cheapest place it could find after removing a kidney or two if it could get thirty cents for it.
Your sick kid wouldn’t fare much better, but you could part that child out for more money if the organs were still useable.
But you want business to decide on healthcare matters? Cancer, Diabetes, back problems, out to the landfill with you.
Sick AF.
You know who created these characters? You think they came out of nowhere? This is what happens when you ignore human beings and give it all to corporations. You create politicians like this. DON’T PUSH SO FAR, AND YOU WON’T END UP WITH THIS. WAKE UP!
“voting for the modern Dem party that’s home to the likes of AOC, DeBlasio and Chesa Boudin.”
We’re far too leaky for that to work. People are done, burned out, even here in high-compliance NJ, people are over the pandemic, they are far more willing to take their chances. If we couldn’t stop Delta, stopping Omicron is impossible. Again walked through a diner packed almost shoulder to shoulder, full capacity, what’s the point of putting your mask on to walk in or out at that point?
Problem with Omicron is it is infecting people who already had a prior Beta or Delta Covid infection, so natural immunity is no defense this time, it has proven to have substantial immune evasion.
Here is the study from South Africa.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.11.11.21266068v2
Juice, we’ll see, I was exposed directly 5 school days in a row. Flimsy, loose fitting mask. So far, negative. Probably do another test this weekend.
“Do you have any idea how many foreign bodies just one hospital in America removes because someone “fell” in the shower?”
I used to listen to a great degenerate podcast whose hosts were brilliant and funny beyond their own recognition. The podcast suffered when one of the three cohosts got caught cheating on his wife and wrecked his family. The final nail in the coffin occurred when the host (a Las Vegas school teacher at a horrific school) who was morbidly obese (times 2) died of a sudden heart attack in his 30s. Well one of the shows sidekicks was a surgeon named Patch from Yakima. Every week he would call in to share what a patient had accidentally fallen onto when naked. And it always somehow went straight up their anus. Occasionally in the vag, but in the butt at least 90% of the time. Lot’s of happy meal toys too.
The Podcast was called This Ain’t Iowa. I am still close friends with the host that sells RE in Vegas, who used to be an aspiring professional poker player. I saw him on Saturday actually. The guy who broke up his family is a stand-up comedian who day lights as a trailer park office manager.
Lib,
I used a J&J Oculus simulator the other day to practice surgery. You take that thing off and you are confused as you really feel you are in another place while using it.
You could easily do virtual classrooms with that. Things as we know it are going to drastically change in the future. Very good chance you won’t need as many teachers in the future.
The resolution of the headsets has to get better, but the virtual 3d actually works. Was fun throwing power drills around the room.
Phoenix. That’s the metaverse. Embrace the change.
Problem with Omicron
…and yet NJ has no data to publish on this? We’re more than a month in, and the best we can do was a newspaper quote that came out of a press conference sound byte?
Do we put the tinfoil hats on and say – “it’s got to be f*cking bad if they aren’t saying anything, because I can’t believe the labs aren’t providing the data”.
The cases reported today – 6,271 – is (I believe) the 4th highest daily total ever reported in NJ.
One of the omicron-con participants at the javits that traveled up from Monmouth county, was fully vaxxed and boosted, and I have to assume was on the younger size too.
More anecdotes that are following the Cornell pattern, where nearly every positive case was vaxxed, and even some boosted as well.
Grim,
What’s the rush for data? They aren’t a private business. No one is going to hound the employees and threaten them, not feed them, or force them to stay overtime like private dictators do.
When it gets done, it gets done. And just like judges and teachers, they get time to sit down and enjoy a nice lunch free from work related duties.
“LISBON, Portugal — Ever had a persistent boss who won’t stop messaging you once you’ve left work or logged off? In Portugal, that behavior is now illegal.
The country recently introduced a law that bans employers from contacting workers outside of their regular hours by phone, message or email.
“The employer must respect the privacy of the worker,” including periods of rest and family time, the new law stipulates. Any violation, it continues, constitutes a “serious” offense and could result in a fine.
A similar rule gave French workers the right to ignore after-hours business emails in 2017.”
During my wild 20s while living in NYC two intern doctors joined our “Friends” group. They had a nice place in the village, and would regularly host parties even had a rock band play out on their roof in the summer. At one party they decorated their fridge and kitchen cabinets and taped up a bunch of x-rays they took while working in the emergency room in NYC. Needless to say those x-rays were the talk of the party, they told me nobody believed their Emergency Rooms stories so they brought home the x-rays as evidence that yes you can fit it up your rear if you try hard enough.
Reminds me I need to pay one of those Docs a visit, he is living in Hawaii now has a nice life there still works the emergency room too…
What’s the rush for data?
No rush, but it tells you everything you need to know about public sentiment towards it. No rush, no worry. In scenarios like this, the media mirrors the public sentiment. If NJ media isn’t screaming about it, NJ residents aren’t caring about it, and NJ politicians aren’t bothering to talk about it. If NJ doesn’t react, I don’t imagine much of the rest of the country would either.
Reminds me I need to pay one of those Docs a visit, he is living in Hawaii now has a nice life there still works the emergency room too…
Sounds like a plan. Book a flight, then take a fall in the shower. Bring him a Christmas Card X-Ray with the object circled to put on the fridge for the festive holiday season.
Shoulda bought that property in Maui back in 2005 when I had the chance.
Metaverse. We are speeding towards the point in human history where we will spend more time in a digital world than the real one. Scary stuff.
How long before free thinking robots replace our species?
Phoenix says:
December 16, 2021 at 10:54 am
Lib,
I used a J&J Oculus simulator the other day to practice surgery. You take that thing off and you are confused as you really feel you are in another place while using it.
You could easily do virtual classrooms with that. Things as we know it are going to drastically change in the future. Very good chance you won’t need as many teachers in the future.
The resolution of the headsets has to get better, but the virtual 3d actually works. Was fun throwing power drills around the room.
Metaverse will replace living in the real world. You think kids were glued to their screens before, now they will be living in it. 3b and Lib will be happy as there will no longer be a commute for anything. You will live your life digitally while robots move around in the real world bringing you products to survive on.
Everyone is going to be WFH in their digital world.
And imagine the p0rn.
Menage a vingt!
Lib,
Easy there cowboy!
https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/12/16/1042516/the-metaverse-has-a-groping-problem/
Just looked. Nasty Nasdaq is down another 1.25%.
P/Es don’t matter.
We are getting close to 1 million deaths from this virus in America. That’s crazy. Of course the ignorant will point out that it’s a small percentage of the population.
We lost 64k in Vietnam, and everyone was up in arms. We lost close to a million and they don’t even give a f/k. We are at peak selfishness in human society.
We went to war for 9/11, which was minimal amount of deaths, but we have people who don’t care about the amount of covid deaths…just brush it off.
American Justice System. Yeah, it works.
Chicago drug dealer, 17, is given probation for fatally STABBING boy, 15, in marijuana sale gone wrong after judge said he is ‘a bright kid with a bright future’
We lost 64k in Vietnam, and everyone was up in arms.
Really? Those guys came back hated by Americans.
9/11- that was like an anaphylactic reaction to a peanut. Huge overreaction. Required a targeted response.
Agreed Phoenix,
More people die in the average ferry accident.
Remember what Bin Laden said about bankrupting America? That was his plan on 9/11. He knew it would elicit a stupidly oversized response.
It’s just wild that people brush off close to a million deaths as nothing.
I said the other day that these “generals” were due to get shot. They were the last man standing holding up the s&p 500 while the rest of the market was in a bear market for some time already.
Libturd says:
December 16, 2021 at 11:33 am
Just looked. Nasty Nasdaq is down another 1.25%.
P/Es don’t matter.
So people are going to flee those stocks and jump back in to the beaten down high growth stocks that are currently the best value in the market long term.
“Do you have any idea how many foreign bodies just one hospital in America removes because someone “fell” in the shower?”
Here is the 2A edition Slightly NSFW
https://tinyurl.com/3hbtbjh7
High earnings growth. Not speculative growth. Understand the difference.
Wall Street appears to be in agreement: Inflation, which is now at a 39-year high, is here to stay. As analysts and hedge-fund managers prepare their investment outlooks for 2022, many of them are bracing their portfolios for high prices and the lengthy bout of high inflation.
But a pair of growth-fund managers who beat 99% of peers in 2020 is swimming against that consensus view. Cathie Wood, the chief investment officer of Ark Invest, and Alex Ely, the investment chief of US equity at Macquarie Asset Management, are both betting that prices will fall — not rise — in the coming years.
It takes outside-the-box thinking to beat the market, but a contrarian bet of that magnitude can be career-defining. After rocky performances this year for Wood’s ARK Innovation ETF (down 24% year to date) and Ely’s Delaware Small Cap Growth fund (down 7%), there’s immense pressure to be right in 2022.
Wood projected confidence in an early December interview with CNBC. She explained that while she was caught off guard by price surges that stemmed from supply-chain backlogs, she now believed that Wall Street was in for “shocking surprises” as supply gluts cause prices to fall drastically.
“While you don’t see it yet, we believe inventories are piling up,” Wood said. “Businesses who have been scrambling for almost two years now to catch up with the consumer are just now throwing everything they have at it, and we think they’re going to end up with way too much in the way of inventories, especially because the consumer has built a home up with inventories as we see, again, another round of hoarding.”
In a December 13 webinar outlining Macquarie’s 2022 investing outlook, Ely said that while supply-chain issues were spooking some investors, those issues would get cleared up and could also be mitigated by “significantly deflationary” digitalization trends. Disruptive innovations, such as e-commerce and videoconferencing, foster competition and often lead to lower prices.
When asked whether he agreed with Wood’s thesis that deflation could replace inflation in the coming years, Ely wrote the following message to Insider: “Yes. We believe digitalization is deflationary and the inflation we are seeing today will dissipate. The markets are still getting used to the fact that rates will be very low or near zero for a long time. Sustainable low rates are great for equities. We are not cautiously optimistic; we are bullish on equities.”
https://apple.news/AgT25FZlNTwuKCCtzHDd66g
Dude, over 2m North and South Vietnamese CIVILIANS lost their lives. The estimated civilian deaths for right’s unjust, flag waving, rah rah Iraq war are 300k minimum. The right’s war machine have no human decency..all about us and our freedoms, America #1, do what we want..fueled by decades long racist, anti-Muslim propaganda via Faux news.
I stand by my girl. She knows more than me, Lib. That’s why I take the ego out of the equation and let her do the picking.
Read that last post. She is going to be correct about inflation. She thinks just like I do.
Just ask yourself, when has the market overall been correct with something like inflation. They beat these stocks down out of pure fear and hysteria. The sky is falling!! Sell! Sell to me, bitches!!
No one understands innovation like cathie. No one. She has a proven track record.
And innovation is not going away, it’s only getting started.
Noone who names their ETFs after biblical objects is getting much street cred from me.
Though I do giver her credit for moving her office to the trash heap known as Tampa. She obviously does not see New York City’s value the same way you do.
Watch for the flattening of the yield curve.
Arkg, bitches!! Healthcare is ripe for the taking in terms of innovation.
“Where to invest as disruption brings deflation
Disruptive companies across several sectors will dominate as deflationary trends shock the market in the coming years, Ely said. He cited tech giants, such as Microsoft and Intel, as past disruptors, as well as Home Depot, Walmart, Johnson & Johnson, Coca-Cola, Visa, and Mastercard. Each of those companies provided “better, cheaper, faster ways of doing things,” the fund manager said.
But when it comes to disruption, not all sectors are created equal. The best opportunities are found in the consumer technology and healthcare sectors, Ely said in the webinar. He added that firms in the industrials, materials, and energy sectors were more likely to get disrupted.”
Pumps,
Here’s a lesson which I substantiated with my Ameritrade results. Among my individual stocks, I had a hugely profitable position in Adobe. I bought most of it earlier this year when it was at a P/E of 42 (bought about 10% of that amount back in April of last year with a P/E of 45). I sold the first half when the P/E hit 53 and the second half recently when I got the second gift of a P/E of 55. Made a quick 52% on a sizeable investment. Today, the P/E is 46. It’s 5 year average P/E is 52.
Go take a look at the 1-year chart. The stock price at the time of the buys and sells didn’t matter nearly as much as the amount it got overvalued based on its quarterly eps. You don’t need to listen to anyone else to do this. As a matter of fact, you can do this over and over without the use of anything except ycharts. I try to shield the experts from my eyes and ears. They only want to sell you their marketing.
01/27/2021 15:28:05 Bought ? ADBE @ 457.9427
09/14/2021 15:58:04 Sold ? ADBE @ 645.79
12/01/2021 13:12:45 Sold ? ADBE @ 668.5383
Today 13:31:23 Adobe is at 562.84
Should I put my brilliant trade on Twitter?
Should I publish it to my Facebook followers?
I have ten other similar trades this year. It’s how I consistently beat the indexes to which I benchmark too (mainly the total stock market index). My ETFs, reduce my risk and usually return what the indexes they mirror do. But the individual holdings are what JUICE my returns.
Cathie Wood has no place in a portfolio that looks at long-term results. Not just the ups when no one was watching or vested.
I would consider inviting you to join one of my two investment clubs, but I wouldn’t wish THAT on any of my peers.
Better get some sleep Phoenix,
You haven’t seen busy yet. Today’s number was 7,600!
But don’t worry, the new Republicans here say the hospitals aren’t really full. All of those hospital beds in your cafeteria are just new cushioned tables. The bodies on them? They can be used to keep your plates warm.
Lib,
You are good at investing on your own. Many are not. Her returns are the best someone is going to get in this decade if they are playing an ETF long term.
Buying individual stocks really is gambling for the avg individual. So it’s better they stick to ETF’s.
At the end of the day, if you share all your moves with me, maybe I would dump her funds. Where do you see the innovation taking place in healthcare over the next 5 years? I’m not chasing value, I’m chasing high growth tied to major disruption. Some of these value stocks are traps. They will die instead of ever growing again. Disruption is the name of the game this decade.
Remember, it’s important to understand what is happening. You won’t have these opportunities to invest in disruptive tech at these levels next decade. The disruption will slow down as the current disruptors take over the economy. Then one day they will be disrupted, but it doesn’t happen at an extreme pace every decade. We are in a special place and time to be able to invest in this new industrial revolution. Life in 2030 will be nothing like it is now. Insane amount of change is upon us.
Of course, this is all my opinion, and maybe innovation stops. A huge bust in the economy will do that…it will absolutely kill innovation as there is no money to fuel the investments. I don’t see that happening this decade, but could be wrong. I see strong growth based on disruptive innovation.
Lib,
Do you use Valueline only for individual equities or mutual funds too and do they have automated parameters to select for you or do you punch in your own parameters and it spits out what you should buy and defined points to exit? Thanks,
Remember, this massive change is the opportunity. It will make you so much money if you are invested in it. Look at how many millionaires were created from bitcoin or tesla…massive change did that. Something totally new, which some people thought was a joke including myself, was an insane opportunity to make money. These opportunities were not available from 2000-2009.
https://www.nj.com/politics/2021/12/murphy-pushes-nominee-on-waterfront-commission-as-nj-seeks-to-kill-it.html
“Why did it nominate Joseph M. Sanzari, who has boasted of his friendship with Harrold Daggett, international president of the International Longshoremen’s Association — and an ardent foe of the Waterfront Commission, who has chafed at its enforcement efforts over the years?”
Sanzari is what happens when someone builds a network where they know everyone. He prob has blackmail on every important individual in this state. These are the scumbags that corrupt govt. It’s not the politicians that are in control, it’s rich private business owners that corrupt the entire system to their benefit. Line them up and shoot them.
Tampa? She getting into the meth business?
Pumps this is how government works, do you understand the issue now with expanding the government. He doesn’t need black mail this is a pay to play state and he is paying, he is closely aligned with the unions and basically he has corned the market on road construction in NNJ, this is what happens in dem states and why the roads cost 4x as much as elsewhere while being absolute rubbish. He supports the unions, the dems, and therefore the unions and dems support him, it is an incestuous relationship between government, private industry, and organized labor.
Jcer,
It is what it is. A big money private business owner corrupting everything he touches. Phoenix spoke about this earlier and is dead on….they have their tentacles all over the govt.
Take away govt, and this guy will still be doing what he is doing under whatever other system is in place. He is a manipulator and knows how to get people to do WHAT HE WANTS.
The minute he dies, some other corrupt individual will take his place immediately. This happens in every state and every town in America. Prove me wrong. Don’t act like this is unique to nj or a union thing.
And if you don’t think he employs blackmail, you are not looking at it clearly. There are plenty of other rich people that want to do what he is doing, but how does he protect his throne?
I stand by my girl. She knows more than me, Lib. That’s why I take the ego out of the equation and let her do the picking. (Pumps pounding his chest.)
Cathie Woods is so smart. She sold all of her Pfizer . (Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest Posts Fund Sales For Monday, Dec. 13, 2021 PFE.)
Then she bought coin ,
Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest Posts Fund Purchases For Tuesday, Dec. 14, 2021 COIN.
Pfizer up over 10% since the sale , coin down over 12% since purchased. In a matter of days only, imagine how much she lost with Pfizer…. how innovative is that?? Just one of the many reasons she is being outclassed and losing BIG BUCKS!
Jim,
Yea, she is clueless. You are right.
If you think her investing strategy is built on buying value stocks, you don’t get it. What is so disruptive about pfizer? How is pfizer due for more growth than coin over the next 5 years?
Covid is out of control, I still have mine…..it even pays a dividend. It is called sticking with a winner. Pfizer is a buy for most common sense people.
Coin is not a bad buy, but her timing is horrendous, I am glad you were lying to us about the $3,000 a month you were putting in ,otherwise you would be looking for a part time job . In your case stick to teaching , the union will protect you.
Understand that she uses companies like pfizer as a holding, and sells when she feels a stock on her radar is ready to buy. She is not going to time it perfectly, but long term, she will make more money by selling that pfizer position to buy a beaten down coin position. You are looking for perfection, and no one can consistently time the market perfectly. So she missed 12%, but what does it matter if it goes up 200% in 5 years from where she bought?
Again, understand what her fund’s strategy is based on. It’s based on investing in high growth up and coming companies that are based on disruptive tech. Should she deviate from her strategy to appease people like you? Then she would be a con artist, chasing something entirely different than what her fund’s main strategy is so that she could attract more funding in the short term at the expense of her long term strategy.
To put it simply, she is not a short term trader. Understand this.
Jcer: That’s what is so galling you would think with all the taxes residents pay, the state would look better, instead of what we have. NJ Transit the pride of NJ.
Pumps do you know Sanzari or Fletcher Creamer, regulations and artificial barriers to entry basically mean a small handful of contractors are even able to bid on jobs. It’s not manipulation it is a mutually beneficial relationship at the taxpayers expense. As you do not work in this space for a living nor are you plugged into the democratic machine in NJ you simply do not know. Sanzari has given millions in campaign contributions over the years either in his own name or through lobbyists and bundlers.
Here is the deal the companies able to do gov contracts understand the bureaucracy, requirements and red tape, they have a good relationship with the unions which is very important because all the government road work is 100% union if you attempt to move in on his turf it will cost you, his allies in the union and local governments will make sure you lose money on the project, it is late and your reputation is tarnished. He protects his interests by taking an appointment on the waterfront commission, the union wants to be able to commit fraud unabated so by having a position of authority he can help the unions get what they want so they can help his business in return. He and the unions in turn support the party in NJ so it completes the circle.
Yes government corruption is everywhere but we take it to an art form here in NJ. NY isn’t any better and Philly is corrupt as hell too. Democrat run cities and states tend to have a much better grift game than republican run places do. My dad was very plugged into the democrat party in NJ, he knew Sanzari,Creamer, the Union bosses. At the end of the day as long as you are making money you keep these guys happy, the more profit they can feed on the more corruption there is. He told me on more than one occasion things were out of hand. I witnessed it first hand. Try and remember this is a state that re-elected a man to the senate who probably should be in prison.
There isn’t any blackmail required it’s all about trading favors.
Does anyone know of any studies that analyze the cost of road building in comparison to the population density and cost of living in said location?
“this is what happens in dem states and why the roads cost 4x as much as elsewhere while being absolute rubbish”
Urban Meyer does not even survive a season..geesus.
Nomad,
Was driving. The only numbers I generally use in ValueLine are their estimated 3-5 years earnings estimate and their 3-5 years sales estimate. I also look at the ValueLine in the chart.
I use another piece of software named Toolkit (which is available, but is being sunset, at Stock Central) which is where the magic (or call it discipline) takes place.
Here is the simple formula.
Only look at stocks with a five year track record of earnings and sales growth greater than 15% annually. Then determine the average P/E over the period. Stocks tend to bounce in cycles off of the top and bottom of their P/E channels. When you find one at the bottom of the channel with no deterioration in fundamentals, you pounce. But not before first, evaluating management, which involves a quick glance at return on equity, pretax profit as a percentage of sales (profit margin), and %of debt to capital. The first two should be increasing with the latter, falling.
Then, we measure risk to reward with a formula that subtracts your predicted high price (next 5 years) by the current price divided by the current price minus your predicted low price. This should result in a number greater than 3 but less than 10. If lower than 3, there is not enough potential, if over ten, then your high or low price is not realistic.
Finally, we measure compounded annual return at the average P/E as well as at the predicted high P/E. The return at the high P/E must be over 14.
We then take our forecasted high price and subtract it from our forecasted low price and zone the answer by 25% buy below/ 50% hold/25% sell above ranges.
Once the stock is in the portfolio, we update the stock study by adjusting the 5 year earnings and sales assumptions as well as tweak the high and low P/E predictions based on current trends of the overall market and sector. If nothing fundamentally changes with the company, we use the 25/50/25 price ranges to determine what to do.
Here is an example. Scroll down to the Stock Selection Guide.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4200639-portfolio-review-eaton-and-adams-diversified-equity-fund-added
Though one can do the formula by hand or with the software relatively easily, acquiring the data to plug in is slow and tiresome and sometimes needs normalising. Hence, we purchase an annual subscription, which we share among all of the members, to Stock Central’s datafeed.
Though, after thirty five years of investing with the SSG as my guide, I can simply look at a plot of the common three lines (earnings, profit margin and sales) against quarterly price bars and can easily tell if a stock is undervalued. If I see one, then I’ll run an SSG on it to see if the other factors fit.
Hope this makes sense. Now to wax my car.
Fletcher Creamer is replacing all of the lead water valve connectors for Suez in Bergen Co. from the pipe running from the street to the house. That must be an incredible contract for them. Sanzari has been doing something on the exit ramp from Rt 4 to 17 and the GSP. It’s a big grass median on the right, don’t know what they are doing, but they have been at it for around 4 years or so. Big bucks on that too I am sure.
Jcer: And all the brick pavers and cross walks that many towns have done over the last decade or so , cracking and falling apart and the old fashioned lights half of them don’t work and sometimes the ones that do are in the day time but not at night!
Quality craftsmanship all around!!
Creamer has nearly all of the GSP and Turnpike construction projects too.
Lib: Yeah, Creamer is a fixture on the GSP. Probably just leave the equipment there too, as they are always doing something.
Sanzari?
His landscaping cost more than my house.
https://www.google.com/maps/place/50+Academy+Rd,+Ho-Ho-Kus,+NJ+07423/@41.0020879,-74.0803667,3a,75y,126.02h,85.04t/data=!3m7!1e1!3m5!1snGCcPHH8bNE1VfHcxrWxEQ!2e0!6shttps:%2F%2Fstreetviewpixels-pa.googleapis.com%2Fv1%2Fthumbnail%3Fpanoid%3DnGCcPHH8bNE1VfHcxrWxEQ%26cb_client%3Dsearch.gws-prod.gps%26w%3D86%26h%3D86%26yaw%3D106.96894%26pitch%3D0%26thumbfov%3D100!7i16384!8i8192!4m5!3m4!1s0x89c2e4fe5f52a013:0x51127da219252e75!8m2!3d41.0019746!4d-74.0799928
Nobody can muscle in on NJ heavy contractors, for bridges and overpasses etc. Colas Inc however is much bigger nationally they are out of Morristown.
https://www.colasusa.com/
Ferreira out of Branchburg is pretty big on NJ too..Torcon out of Red Bank does allot of work too. Railroad construction out of Paterson has most rail work sewn up too.
Nice run!!! Thanks Goldman Sachs for the pump.
Just took 1/2 of the current vested stuff off the table.
Should cover the first year’s tuition at a public Univ.
Lord help us if the kiddo goes private.
To pay the bills in college I used to park cars. We had the Hilton Woodcliff Lake as a client. The NJ Giants used to spend game night there. I met Parcells many times, he drove a Crown Vic. Lawrence Taylor drove a slant nose Porsche, purple color. The football players tipped ok but they were nothing like the bent nose crowd at a wedding…One Saturday night wedding the old man father of the bride came down and tipped each valet a crisp new 100 bill from a very large stack. I told him Louie was out in the lot parking and he gave me another 100 bill for Louie..There was no Louie.. I think my haul that night was about $600…Allot of cash money back then.
Juice: Shoddy paving job! Looks like they are sinking and cracking!
re: “Should cover the first year’s tuition at a public Univ”
We have a large 529 plan right now…It is crazy how much we have saved so far and earned by not leasing new cars all the time and eating out every other day and maxing our contributions.
3B – yeah pavers look like garbage.. My Red Dragon Japanese Maple looks nicer too. Hey for $60,000 a year in taxes not a bad spread..
I don’t understand the attraction of pavers. Especially four years after the work is completed when you have to pay your landscaper to mow the driveway. Asphalt is great. Patch and seal every four years. Will hold for a decade or two. Plus way easier to remove the snow from.
People are strange.
Lib – Pavers are fine, the pavers sold here in NJ are garbage they are made out of concrete and mostly not great concrete. Real Pavers are stone cobblestone pavers etc like you see in Europe..
I have a wonderful paver patio out back surrounds my pool etc, the pavers are concrete and not the guy you see on tv for Armortech. This year I stripped them power washed and put down brand new paver sand. Looked great all summer, but now I have weeds everywhere. I have taken to torching the weeds with a blow torch hooked up to a propane tank.
https://gemplers.com/products/red-dragon-propane-weed-burner-backpack-kit?currency=USD&variant=21170407276633&utm_medium=cpc&utm_source=google&utm_campaign=Google%20Shopping&utm_content=https://gemplers.com/products/red-dragon-propane-weed-burner-backpack-kit%3Fcurrency%3DUSD%26variant%3D21170407276633%26utm_medium%3Dcpc%26utm_source%3Dgoogle%26utm_campaign%3DGoogle%2520Shopping&utm_term=shopify_US_2042931183705_21170407276633&gclid=Cj0KCQiA5OuNBhCRARIsACgaiqUQpy9EoBD1shtAOppWKgFNL2SQBDaoFJwPYAdLG0f_qv_YNg5LUMAaAg4ZEALw_wcB
They also show wear from acid rain, and are not as smooth as new pavers the color fades too so there is that too.
Joys of home ownership..
That Sanzari house, though.
Got a unannounced Christmas bonus today. Worked for my last company for 14 years, never a bonus and over the last 8 no raise. Nice to see.
You are taking a simplistic view. Understand Sanzari is a BOSS. You don’t get there by only making mutually beneficial deals. You get there by running people over and being viewed as a Lion King. People are afraid to go against you for a reason.
Honestly, jcer, you just like to blame it on democratic politics. That’s bs. Blame the individuals who built the moat around their source of income through intimidation and blackmail.
Go start a business in some small town in a red state. Good f’ing luck. They might be more corrupt than jersey politicians. You just don’t hear about it because they are so small and the money is not much compared to nyc metro area. But seriously, go and try and compete in these locations with the family that has been running it for generations.
“There isn’t any blackmail required it’s all about trading favors”
school update, 88 cases. Presumably Omicron. We had nearly zero transmission 3 months, and in 1 week, through the roof. At home tests are nowhere to be found. I have 3 left. Rationing them into Christmas.
All politicians are corrupt. It’s not just a blue politician issue. Why republicans make it seem that way is beyond me. They are all human beings playing a game of power which is always based on corruption. It’s impossible to have power and no corruption. This is not a jersey thing, it’s a human nature thing.
For those holding T in their portfolios . . .
https://i.redd.it/609alichxx581.png
Yes Brits are bracing for 1 million cases a day this weekend…London is apparently a ghost town…We will follow shortly…5 million cases a day here etc by Christmas….
BTW I am not believing this one is not a killer yet, simply not enough data. South Africa had large amounts of natural immunity and a much younger population for those reinfected with Omicron, they were better able to fight it off…not too many people down there over 65 years old..
Different story here. Keep grandma and grandpa home..
Wonder how much of the selling is due to this? You know that’s why Tesla dropped, he gave a Christmas gift to tesla boys by lowering the price with his massive selling.
“Executive stock sales up 50% as tax changes for buy backs loom from BBB.
Delay in BBB said to be caused by a need to focus on voting rights.
Just gathering data right now… #UncapSALT”
https://twitter.com/saltcap1/status/1471610395668402181?s=21
re: “You are taking a simplistic view”
Look teacher I defend you all the time but you cannot school us here take your losses already and move on….I am serious I lose more brain cells reading your posts than I do from alcohol. Heck I am gonna pop another bottle of red after I finish sauteeing my chicken and fixing for my taco dinner.
Juice,
I’ll take the L, but blackmail always is at play in the game of power, imho.
Trader’s Almanac: Investors tend to get rid of their losers near year-end for tax purposes. Often hammering these same stocks down to bargain levels. Over the years the Almanac has shown that NYSE stocks selling at their lows on 12/15 usually outperform the market by 2/15.
From a tax law professor..
“I’m not going to post about SALT anymore. All the arguments are in bad faith or ignore other more egregious parts of the tax code.
If you care about SALT but don’t know what interest deductions, carried interest, or annual exclusion gifts are… there’s no point in talking.”
https://twitter.com/zoomlagdefeater/status/1471306739706433536?s=21
“There are only 26.65% of $NASDAQ stocks above their respective 200-day moving averages after today’s close.”
Post 300! B1tches.
So, I’ve been officially close contact with at least 15 positives in the past 6 days. Still, I’m testing negative. If I make it through next week, I can without a doubt declare myself, still immune.
“There are only 26.65% of $NASDAQ stocks above their respective 200-day moving averages after today’s close.”
You can either expect them to go back to sky high valuations, or take those that have already fallen as an omen for the general market. ETF investors are only looking at red/green and not the underlying assets. I sold SMH because the high weighting of NVidia, which I love, but it’s just way overvalued.