From Reuters:
U.S. home sales approach eight-and-a-half-year high, prices surge
U.S. home resales rose in June to their highest level in nearly 8-1/2 years, a sign of pent-up demand that should buoy the housing market recovery and likely keep the Federal Reserve on track to raise interest rates later this year.
The National Association of Realtors said on Wednesday existing home sales increased 3.2 percent to an annual rate of 5.49 million units, the highest level since February 2007.
“The economy really has the wind at its back now,” said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at MUFG Union Bank in New York.
Home resales this year are on track to record their biggest gain in eight years, the NAR said.
Economists had forecast sales rising to an annual rate of 5.40 million units last month. Sales were up 9.6 percent from a year ago.
June’s solid home sales report came on the heels of last week’s strong housing starts and building permits data. A tightening labor market is starting to push up wages, helping to boost demand for housing, especially among young adults.
But a tight supply of properties for sale remains a constraint. The string of strong housing reports indicate the economy continues to be on firmer footing despite a drop in retail sales and a slowdown in job growth last month.
…
“Strong home resale numbers throughout the spring and into summer are welcome news to those who feared the housing market was a weak point in the overall economy,” said Bill Banfield, vice president at Quicken Loans in Detroit.“As housing numbers trend more positive, the Fed will become increasingly comfortable in beginning to raise rates.”
…
At June’s sales pace, it would take 5.0 months to clear houses from the market, down from 5.1 months in May. A six-month supply is viewed as a healthy balance between supply and demand.With supply well below what it was during the housing bubble in 2006, the median price for a previously owned home increased 6.5 percent from a year ago to a record $236,400.
While some buyers may be forced out of the market by higher prices, homeowners are seeing their equity rise. That could lead to more houses being put up for sale. Realtors and economists say insufficient equity has contributed to the tight housing inventories.
Good Morning New Jersey
New York City, Los Angeles, Honolulu: They’re all places you would think would be popular destinations for Americans. So it might come as a surprise that these are among the cities U.S. residents are fleeing in droves.
The map below shows the 20 metropolitan areas that lost the greatest share of local people to other parts of the country between July 2013 and July 2014, according to a Bloomberg News analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data. The New York City area ranked 2nd, losing about a net 163,000 U.S. residents, closely followed by a couple surrounding suburbs in Connecticut. Honolulu ranked fourth and Los Angeles ranked 14th. The Bloomberg calculations looked at the 100 most populous U.S. metropolitan areas.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-22/these-are-the-top-20-cities-americans-are-ditching
cont’d
nterestingly, these are also the cities with some of the highest net inflows of people from outside the country. That gives many of these cities a steadily growing population, despite the net exodus of people moving within the U.S.
So what’s going on here? Michael Stoll, a professor of public policy and urban planning at the University of California Los Angeles, has an idea. Soaring home prices are pushing local residents out and scaring away potential new ones from other parts of the country, he said. (Everyone knows how unaffordable the Manhattan area has become.)
And as Americans leave, people from abroad move in to these bustling cities to fill the vacant low-skilled jobs. They are able to do so by living in what Stoll calls “creative housing arrangements” in which they pack six to eight individuals, or two to four families, into one apartment or home. It’s an arrangement that most Americans just aren’t willing to pursue, and even many immigrants decide it’s not for them as time goes by, he said.
Airbnb taxi and the van for rent in NYC was on TV last night. How we long before they are towed?
They wouldn’t let me go 30 yr conforming carrying two mortgages temporarily. The only option was FHA and I refuse to pay FHA mortgage insurance. Fcuk you. So I had to go real heavy on down payment to get debt to ratio in line. The RE syndicate and fat slob muppets really fcucked things up ten years ago.
Mortgages are for poor people.
A couple thoughts from watching the MSM this morning:
1. For those who make the argument of one locale over another by comparing the best demographics of one area (NJ) against the worst demographics of another (ten lowest tax counties in America) find the news clip of the Spotswood, NJ home intruder who stayed under the bed for three days. The homeowners, the child, the boyfriend/perpetrator, and the camera pan of the house contains every stereotype of any backwoods WV no running water, barefoot, toothless family/home.
There is good and bad everywhere. Make sure your priorities are where you want them for the long term. Your personal tape can’t be rewound.
2. Lindsay Graham responds to Trump with his own video. He is shown destroying his flip phone in about twelve different ways in a professionally shot spot.
We have now officially jumped the shark in politics (which importantly please remember is governance). We have 315 million people in this country. The best we can produce to govern the strongest nation in history is this group of 16 clowns/self promoters/grammar school mental equivalents, a warmed over communist likely born with advent of most nations embracing that philosophy, and a pathological DSM-5 busting careerist? Really?
Not today, not tomorrow, but for certain this will not end well. History is rife with examples of the path we are well along and the outcomes are not good.
D-FENS,
I now have a medium size hat and a few cattle. :)
Agreed. Great write-up!
jcer says:
July 22, 2015 at 11:13 pm
163, the top .01% is the problem. The top 1% tend to be the most important people in society, your successful doctors, lawyers, accountants, engineers, generally the people you go to when you need something important done. Those people deserve success, pay massive taxes and earn what they get. But that is the point of the narrative is to deflect, for the proletariat to attack the bourgeois, when the real enemy is the capitalist robber baron who does cheat to get what they have. I hope to join the 1% at some point in the future but I’ll never be even a .1% and my income will only be in the 1% at the very peak of my career for a few years after which it will fall off. The big problem is the policies meant to contain the .01% do nothing of the sort and basically exist to keep the lower level 1%ers down, there is a lot of churn in the 1% at the lower level and this is all by design.
I do blame globalization more than anything else, I know that my American employees need to support their quality of life and demand to be paid accordingly but they can be replaced by people in India for a very paltry sum that even in India does not buy an equivalent quality of life, the extreme poverty in that country means that a marginally living wage can pay for a professional person. So between automation killing jobs and people willing to work for peanuts in other countries, and the threat of H1B workers who will be slaves for pennies because they have no choice. Essentially we are being forced to compete with the desperate for our wages and it has had the effect of freezing or shrinking salaries. With technology employees are asking to put in far longer day and have more responsibilities than anyone could reasonable have asked in the 1960′s. Meanwhile oligarchs have used free money to inflate/manipulate certain assets that are necessities making healthy profits off people who are feeling wage pressure.
Free market yes but there need to be protections and incentives for American labor. Mind you I don’t care about the lowest common denominator, the burger flippers and laborers but rather the historic American middle class. I don’t mind competing with the first world but when we are forced to compete with people who live on a few dollars a day it is a real concern.
So I read we are back at 2006 prices per Yum. However adjusted for inflation we are at 20% below 2006 prices
@Salon:
Sorry, Rick Perry: Donald Trump isn’t a “cancer” on conservatism
— he IS conservatism
Qualcomm announces they are laying off 5 thousand employees.
@Reuters:
BREAKING NEWS:
Jobless claims fall to 255,000 in latest week, lowest since 1973
Other states are bigger and have a lot more of these types living there. Remember, every county in nj is a metropolitan county. Imagine what some of these other small towns look like in other states. Yes, other states have nice locations, but they are so much smaller. There really are not many places like Morris, Essex, Bergen, Hunterdon, parts of passaic, and Somerset counties. Hunterdon is a rural area that is loaded with rich people, how often do you see that? North Jersey is like no other place in America. It’s hard to live somewhere else after growing up here.
leftwing says:
July 23, 2015 at 8:04 am
A couple thoughts from watching the MSM this morning:
1. For those who make the argument of one locale over another by comparing the best demographics of one area (NJ) against the worst demographics of another (ten lowest tax counties in America) find the news clip of the Spotswood, NJ home intruder who stayed under the bed for three days. The homeowners, the child, the boyfriend/perpetrator, and the camera pan of the house contains every stereotype of any backwoods WV no running water, barefoot, toothless family/home.
There is good and bad everywhere. Make sure your priorities are where you want them for the long term. Your personal tape can’t be rewound.
Jobless claims fall to 255,000 in latest week, lowest since 1973
It’s tragic how many have simply given up and have no hope.
[11] anon (and for good reason)
I was saving this for you.
http://www.cnn.com/2015/07/21/politics/donald-trump-election-democrat/
Sounds like the lower east side 100 years ago……it is a common American story……just the faces (races) are different…..
Essex says:
July 23, 2015 at 7:00 am
And as Americans leave, people from abroad move in to these bustling cities to fill the vacant low-skilled jobs. They are able to do so by living in what Stoll calls “creative housing arrangements” in which they pack six to eight individuals, or two to four families, into one apartment or home. It’s an arrangement that most Americans just aren’t willing to pursue, and even many immigrants decide it’s not for them as time goes by, he said.
Here is the romanticized version…..
http://www.tenement.org/
[7] leftwing
I disagree that the presidential candidates are mental midgets. But they are trying to sell and when you try to sell, you have to speak to your market. Intrinsically, people don’t want successful, accomplished people running the country; they want people like themselves. So our candidates pick out segments of the populace that they think they can appeal to and craft their message, in crayon if need be.
Personally, the only reason I’d take the job is to set myself up for future success. I’d do my time as a public servant but like so many who go through the revolving door, I would eventually cash in those chips. Guys who spend forever on the Hill amassing power are fools IMHO because they die with a mountain of uncashed chips.
but you, trading up and buying big house, and me are very hopeful
Fast Eddie says:
July 23, 2015 at 8:49 am
Jobless claims fall to 255,000 in latest week, lowest since 1973
It’s tragic how many have simply given up and have no hope.
[9] pumpkin
Further to Jcer’s post, these are not new concerns, nor were they new when Zakaria so succinctly summed it up 5 years ago.
http://www.cnn.com/2010/OPINION/10/22/zakaria.middle.class/
[21] redux
Forgot to add that in addition to globalization, technology plays an equal, and IMO, greater role. For it is technology that enables globalization, thus it undercuts not only directly but indirectly. Indeed, it is far more pervasive because globalization has only an indirect effect on immobile service jobs that cannot be outsourced but technology can literally replace them.
[20] anon (and for good reason)
Something tells me that you and Eddie are not hoping for the same things.
20-Ever notice anon’s own writing has the same choppiness one would find in a fortune cookie?
15 Gary now that you have bought another house do you believe real estate prices are fine now? Will you become s real estate cheerleader?? Just asking.
[14] pumpkin
“North Jersey is like no other place in America. It’s hard to live somewhere else after growing up here.”
That’s only because all of the locals want to kill you.
Corcoran broker Gary DePersia sold a newly built 7,750-square-foot (720-square-meter) house in Water Mill for $9.9 million in April after drawing three bids. The property, first listed for $9.95 million when construction began in April 2013, had its price raised to $10.95 million when it was finished last July, he said.
“The house stays on the market for a while, and then — this may not be a delicate way to put it — but houses become like a dog in heat,” DePersia said. “All of a sudden, all the buyers are sniffing around them, and it becomes the next greatest thing to go.”
@FrankLuntz: Nationwide GOP poll
• Donald Trump: 24%
• Scott Walker: 13%
• Jeb Bush: 12%
19. CND You sound like a teacher or police officer……
29.
“Personally, the only reason I’d take the job is to set myself up for future success. I’d do my time as a public servant but like so many who go through the revolving door, I would eventually cash in those chips.”
15 Gary now that you have bought another house do you believe real estate prices are fine now? Will you become s real estate cheerleader?? Just asking.
F.uck no!! I still think people are f.ucking crazy with these asking prices! Do you know how many piece of sh1t splits and bi-levels I’ve endured? Even up to this past weekend before our offer was excepted. I was in this one below this past weekend. I walked in the front door and turned around. I couldn’t take the smell.
http://www.njmls.com/listings/index.cfm?action=dsp.info&mlsnum=1520495&dayssince=&countysearch=false
31 you would think that people would try to cover over the death smell that usually accompanies the mold smell, in some of these homes when they go to sell. Does their realtor not make that suggestion?
A little something for Joyce before I head into the mine.
http://start.toshiba.com/news/read/category/AP%20Top%20News%20-%20US%20Headlines/article/the_associated_press-report_parking_officers_parked_themselves_in_coffe-ap-3
Rick Perry was my reference to grammar school level intelligence. He’s an id1ot. I thought GWB was Texas’s worst. Go back to clips from four years ago, it’s painful to listen to him. Like watching a kid trying to ride a tricycle and repeatedly falling off. Trump’s comment in that regard was priceless – on the order of ‘Rick Perry needed to look smarter than last time so he put on these glasses, won’t work, hey Rick we can see through the glasses’.
14. “North Jersey is like no other place in America. It’s hard to live somewhere else after growing up here.” LOLOLOLOL. LOL. ROFLMAO. LOL.
Now I certainly won’t respond to any of your posts. You’ve never been out of your basement.
19. “Intrinsically, people don’t want successful, accomplished people running the country; they want people like themselves”
Nom, I’ll take the other side here. I believe people want strong leaders. I believe that is part of Trump’s success; the general populace’s (misplaced) perception that he is accomplished and successful. We know he’s a buffoon from frequent doses of him over decades. Rest of America, he’s surging not because he’s the kid in the back of class throwing spitballs but because John Q. Public views his rancor as confidence and strength derived from money, accomplishment, and success.
Separately, I watched some of Iran nuke negotiations original footage with foreign leaders (yeah, I know, sorry, government degree with international relations specialization).
Our guys – Bammer included – are pathetic. Seriously, run tapes of Merckle, Cameron, etc. next to Obama and the current candidates. It’s cringe worthy embarrassing. Our leaders are the Barnum and Bailey of the world and there is no one in the current field that changes it.
Oh, and the other tangental item I noticed from the nuke negotiations is that Isl@mic states have some seriously cool flags. Iran’s is downright bad@ss. Comes right of the pole and kicks your butt.
Don’t respond to the twitter chimp until he admits who he supports from the freak show field. He’s just trolling again.
29. By the way that is usually the reason someone takes a job. There is nothing wrong with it. Part of the reason they expect their contact to be honored.
jcer,
It was putrid! I can’t begin to think of the number of foul-smelling sh1t with a high 5 to mid 6 handle that I’ve endured.
re # 36 – Oh, Puleeze the guest twitter bot cannot think for itself. It will press the level on election day for anyone it is conditioned to push the lever for.
http://tinyurl.com/pasxfvk
Fight for 15!
Whoops…
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2015/07/22/seattle-sees-fallout-from-15-minimum-wage-as-other-cities-follow-suit/
Seattle’s $15 minimum wage law is supposed to lift workers out of poverty and move them off public assistance. But there may be a hitch in the plan.
Evidence is surfacing that some workers are asking their bosses for fewer hours as their wages rise – in a bid to keep overall income down so they don’t lose public subsidies for things like food, child care and rent.
And Trump should be given a medal. He’s stood up for the average citizen and taken on take on the entrenched interests. Notice how you get attacked from all sides when you do that?
@BankableInsight: US Unemployment and the Federal Minimum Wage in One Chart.
#economics #jobs #minimumwage http://t.co/YfRdC4TDaO
http://www.airpnp.co/
31 Gary glad to see you are still a man of principle!!
Gary…Did you get to see the barber’s chair in the living room?
What the hell were they thinking?
http://tinyurl.com/gary-s-chair
Trump v Hillary or Trump v Bernie should make for a freak show the likes of which we’ve never seen.
Please, God, let this happen.
How badly would a Trump independent bid hurt the GOP? According to this week’s Washington Post/ABC poll, a three-way race would result in Hillary Clinton getting 46%, Jeb Bush getting 30%, and Trump 20% among registered voters.
Trump is perfect for politics. At his core, he doesn’t give a shit about you or me.
The megalomania alone makes him prezidential material.
#41,
“And Trump should be given a medal. He’s stood up for the average citizen and taken on take on the entrenched interests.”
Please never post about anon again.
Re #43 – Costanza!
[47] splat,
“Trump v Hillary or Trump v Bernie should make for a freak show the likes of which we’ve never seen.
Please, God, let this happen.”
It would be the first time in our history that the top vote-getter will be None of the Above.
[40] DFENS
It isn’t a defect, it’s a feature.
[42] DFENS
That correlation is striking. As the min wage goes up, a comparable increase in unemployment follows.
That said, this fact wasn’t lost on proponents of min. wage increases. They acknowledged that jobs would be lost but they figured that the benefits outweighed the costs.
One of those benefits was getting people off assistance. But these people figured out how to game the system. I’m shocked.
Look for supporters to spin this with: “Now these people have more free time with their families and will spend more and support the economy . . . .” and “this will mean more hires as employers need to hire people to cover those unfilled shifts . . .”
Like I said, its not a defect, its a feature.
Gaming the system is a bit harsh……what they are doing is completely reasonable given their current options…..you do the same in practicing tax avoidance…..
Comrade Nom Deplume, the anon-tidote says:
July 23, 2015 at 11:53 am
[42] DFENS
That correlation is striking. As the min wage goes up, a comparable increase in unemployment follows.
That said, this fact wasn’t lost on proponents of min. wage increases. They acknowledged that jobs would be lost but they figured that the benefits outweighed the costs.
One of those benefits was getting people off assistance. But these people figured out how to game the system. I’m shocked.
Look for supporters to spin this with: “Now these people have more free time with their families and will spend more and support the economy . . . .” and “this will mean more hires as employers need to hire people to cover those unfilled shifts . . .”
Like I said, its not a defect, its a feature.
Actual real estate news is slow this week.
Man dressed as woman accused of attacking real estate agent
LAWRENCEVILLE, Ga. —A Lawrenceville man has been accused of assaulting a Gwinnett County real estate agent after dressing as a prospective female home buyer.
Gwinnett County Police Department spokeswoman tells local media that 38-year-old Jeffrey W. Shumate was dressed in women’s clothing and a wig when he met the female real estate agent to view a Lawrenceville-area home.
The woman says the man grabbed her and assaulted her on the porch before she ran away and flagged down a passer-by for help.
Shumate was arrested after the woman provided a description of the suspect and his vehicle, as well as a partial tag number.
The suspect was booked into the Gwinnett County jail on charges of aggravated assault, false imprisonment and battery.
54 – I doubt the goal is to get people off assistance. The goal is to exploit the desperation of someone on public assistance…and garner sympathy for them….in exchange for votes for the Blue team.
Mission accomplished.
Eddie I am happy for you – but your balls are larger than mine.
Even with lot’s of cash on hand – I refused to worry about carrying two mortgages.
The problem with the increased minimum wage is that the stated goal was to provide those working minimum wage jobs to earn a “livable wage” on their earnings. If the accounts in the media regarding people limiting hours so they can retain various other subsidies, then either A. The wage was not high enough to bring those people out of poverty, B. The min. wage worker seeks to maximize benfefits (wage + subsidy) while minimizing output (hours worked) resulting in higher private cost via wage increase and no change in public subsidy output or C. The government once again proves when it interjects itself and tries to change the science of economics/markets, they succeed in creating failures and unintended consequences that were inconceivable prior to their interjection.
I vote B and C. I don’t blame the min. wage worker to maximize their benefit at the lowest possible cost to them. All this achieved was an increase in private labor costs. There is no reduction in public subsidy, because the ability to exit poverty requires work/saving/education/sacrifice. All things that are very costly and difficult to the min. wage worker. Better to make 1 penny below the max allowable before subsidy is cut off and settle into your new income range that is only slightly less poor than you were before $15 min wage.
You don’t get it. It’s like someone growing up in nyc and moving to Ohio, they will go out of their mind. If you grew up in North Jersey, you get used to the lifestyle. It’s fast paced. Always something to do. You pretty much can do anything you want. Everything is at your fingertips. You can do anything you want or buy anything you want, as long as you have the money.
Go to North Carolina, or pretty much the majority of America, and it is dead at 9/10 at night. Much different than the nyc metro area. If you don’t think living in the nyc metro area is much different from the rest of the country, you didn’t grow up here. So you obviously can’t tell the difference. Grow up in the nyc metro area and it’s hard to live in most of the other parts of the country.
14. “North Jersey is like no other place in America. It’s hard to live somewhere else after growing up here.” LOLOLOLOL. LOL. ROFLMAO. LOL.
Now I certainly won’t respond to any of your posts. You’ve never been out of your basement.
People make me sick. Whether it’s rich or poor, they are all gaming the system on the middle class. Total bs!!
D-FENS says:
July 23, 2015 at 10:23 am
Fight for 15!
Whoops…
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2015/07/22/seattle-sees-fallout-from-15-minimum-wage-as-other-cities-follow-suit/
Seattle’s $15 minimum wage law is supposed to lift workers out of poverty and move them off public assistance. But there may be a hitch in the plan.
Evidence is surfacing that some workers are asking their bosses for fewer hours as their wages rise – in a bid to keep overall income down so they don’t lose public subsidies for things like food, child care and rent.
I say we raise the minimum wage to $30 an hour. But first, I want to invest in robotics and software, and short the entire restaurant and travel/leisure sector.
Sounds like they got caught up like we did in the technology bubble.
Stock Downturn Hits Chinese Investors in the Heart, Not Just the Wallet
HONG KONG — Farmers turned village community centers into makeshift trading floors. Young workers quit low-paying jobs to play the market full time. Retirees started investment clubs, counseling one another on stock picks.
China fell under the spell of the stock market over the last year, as millions of factory owners, university students, wheat growers and other investors jumped at a chance to strike it rich.
“When we eat breakfast, we think of the stock market. When we sleep, we see flashing red and green screens,” said Elizabeth Xu, 37, a customer service supervisor at an electronics company in Shanghai, who invested $2,500 last fall. “This is our new sport.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/23/business/international/stock-downturn-hits-chinese-investors-in-the-heart-not-just-the-wallet.html?ref=dealbook&_r=0
Fast,
I think the market is heading for reality check. Redfin article about major pull back in June. Anecdotally, just saw a good friend this weekend who grew up in Northvale. Parents finally listed their home about a month ago. Updated, real nice size and location with beautiful pool. Very little traffic, no offers. They undercut the neighbor with less space by 50k. The neighbor has been on market three months. Something starting to smell like rot.
leverage to negotiate sale price is gone. one of the mortgages has to go at any price
Essex says:
July 23, 2015 at 12:19 pm
Even with lot’s of cash on hand – I refused to worry about carrying two mortgages.
Finished (large) walk up attic but no heat (though it stays comfortable all winter – totally, recently insulated). Around 30′ X 15′? Large walk in closet and other storage cubby holes/closets. Can it be classified as a bedroom or do I have to install some type of heating?
Thinking of dumping this house, quick (no mortage and I got it cheap), for something else. Is three bedrooms not counting attic.
There will be no housing crash. It already happened. Next crash is late 2020’s. Are you sure they are priced right? It’s low inventory, if it’s priced right, it will sell.
Bystander says:
July 23, 2015 at 1:23 pm
Fast,
I think the market is heading for reality check. Redfin article about major pull back in June. Anecdotally, just saw a good friend this weekend who grew up in Northvale. Parents finally listed their home about a month ago. Updated, real nice size and location with beautiful pool. Very little traffic, no offers. They undercut the neighbor with less space by 50k. The neighbor has been on market three months. Something starting to smell like rot.
68- guarantee they are boomers expecting to take someone for a ride. No way they are priced right with no offers.
68, not so sure many nice suburban neighborhoods are full of gray hair, what happens when they retire and don’t want to pay 20k per year in property tax? Structurally I see an issue with NJ’s population(it isn’t getting younger) that could cause some weakness in the single family housing market.
re # 68 -“There will be no housing crash.” Plumpkin any raise in rates gives you a nice haircut on affordability. It is all about the monthly payment, when we go back to a 6.5% rate on a 30 year mortgage ( 4000,000 borrowed in this neck of the woods for the middle class) that translates to another $600 a month. That is a BMW lease payment and for christ sakes wifey cannot be driving a Crysler!
Ofcourse there has to be inflation to to raise rates.
All I’m saying is how much lower can it go? If anything, prices will stagnate for a few years, but no way in hell are they crashing. If they crash, I’m buying as much as I can. Will sell off all my stock investments and buy as much real estate as I can if it crashes. You think I’m the only one with this mindset? You will have a lot of hungry investors scoop up the properties if this drops 50% or more. The prices will be right back in no time. Really difficult area to have a major crash, the land value just gets more expensive, and if there is a drop in prices, too many investors to let it crash.
72 prices aren’t going to crash, only some softness. Right now there is no market to speak of some properties seem to sell for too little and others too much. So many delusional sellers out there that the MLS is clogged with things that are basically unsalable.
Could be, but these people were prob never staying. Not many wealthy people retire in nj. Only the elderly poor remain here. Best way to describe jersey; you come here to make your money, but retire somewhere else. Yes, majority are snowbirds…..we all know what the deal is with snowbirds. They still are apart of jersey, but for tax reasons they have southern addresses.
jcer says:
July 23, 2015 at 2:09 pm
68, not so sure many nice suburban neighborhoods are full of gray hair, what happens when they retire and don’t want to pay 20k per year in property tax? Structurally I see an issue with NJ’s population(it isn’t getting younger) that could cause some weakness in the single family housing market.
66. I think I meant to say / no I won’t do two mortgages –
Agree.
jcer says:
July 23, 2015 at 2:51 pm
72 prices aren’t going to crash, only some softness. Right now there is no market to speak of some properties seem to sell for too little and others too much. So many delusional sellers out there that the MLS is clogged with things that are basically unsalable.
The Great Pumpkin says:
July 23, 2015 at 2:44 pm
You think I’m the only one with this mindset? You will have a lot of hungry investors scoop up the properties if this drops 50% or more.
You always find a way to out-do yourself. A crash in the residential real estate market does not mean a 50% decrease. Christ, in any market, if values were cut in half we are all in deep sh!t. Think of clot’s nightmares (day-dreams?), that is what a 50% drop will do.
No – instead a 10-20% drop in residential real estate valuation is enough to halt this “recovery” and wipe out virtually all the equity of any buyer of the last 5 years. As Juice said above – a rate increase to 6.5% impacts $600/month, if you capitalize that monthly income it equates to $75,000-$100,000 or eroded value, either market sale value or purchasing power.
http://breaking911.com/livestream-donald-trump-lands-in-texas-to-visit-mexican-border-watch/
Pumps – All I see are major corps. leaving NJ or being bought out and headcounts slowly slashed until there’s no more bodies to dispose of. Where are all the single family home buyers (middle class) going to be coming from in the near future?
*I’m NOT leaving (at least for now). Rental market (multi-family) is too good.
What new industry is moving here to take up the slack?
We’ve lost manufacturing, Pharma and now, soon, Insurance. What’s left besides slave wage retail, pizza joints, nail salons and chinese buffets?
Again, the exodus does not affect me as these are my type of tenants. Heck, they’ll probably buy these type of properties from me, but the traditional stuff…Who’s going to be able to afford them?
Back to painting…(hey, I don’t mind it. Well, the AC is not really cooling it down enough for me to stop sweating but the paint is drying OK).
Blump, the appraiser can tell you if it is overpriced, right? They would never let buyer overpay. Can’t you just accept pricing is f-ed? There is no way to tell anymore. It is what someone is willing to pay which could be 10-15% more than someone else. I finished second on multi bid situation last year. House listed at 598k. Comps showed 535k which was my final offer. The people who bought it offered 596k. My realtor had no idea how bank appraiser ocould comp that price..oh but magically they did. You have no idea when next crash will be..but with nothing but sand under this economy, it will be sooner than you think.
[80] Bystander
I think Greenspan called that “irrational exuberance”.
House listed at 598k. Comps showed 535k which was my final offer. The people who bought it offered 596k. My realtor had no idea how bank appraiser ocould comp that price..oh but magically they did.
They thought it was cute when Trump kept up the birther rhetoric and was amused with his Mexican rants but the polls have them concerned.
What can the GOP establishment offer Trump to not fracture their voting population by running under a 3rd party?
Well if that’s the case, what’s the worst that will happen? A 10 year correction?
State govt will fix its finances. Home prices will drop and attract a ton of new young people looking to take advantage of cheap real estate near nyc and everything nj has to offer due to its location. Nj will be forced to renew its infrastructure to compete, which will make this area look new compared to the south (who will have aged dramatically in 10-20 years). Businesses will follow the young people and take advantage of the lower prices and attractive location. Boom, nj will be raging just in time for my retirement (30-40 years away) so I can sell my home for a very nice price.
Bring on a nj crash!!
If prices dropped significantly, the only people that will be hurting are the people living in the south. Their ability to attract nj snowbirds will be gone. Say goodbye to their state economies.
NJT says:
July 23, 2015 at 3:05 pm
Pumps – All I see are major corps. leaving NJ or being bought out and headcounts slowly slashed until there’s no more bodies to dispose of. Where are all the single family home buyers (middle class) going to be coming from in the near future?
*I’m NOT leaving (at least for now). Rental market (multi-family) is too good.
What new industry is moving here to take up the slack?
We’ve lost manufacturing, Pharma and now, soon, Insurance. What’s left besides slave wage retail, pizza joints, nail salons and chinese buffets?
Again, the exodus does not affect me as these are my type of tenants. Heck, they’ll probably buy these type of properties from me, but the traditional stuff…Who’s going to be able to afford them?
Back to painting…(hey, I don’t mind it. Well, the AC is not really cooling it down enough for me to stop sweating but the paint is drying OK).
re: # 82 – Trump has registered previously as Republican, Independence Party, Democrat, and now Republican again. However just like Rachel Dolezal, Caitlyn Jenner and Elizabeth Warren he gets to self identify himself however he feels this year, or today whatever right?
I hope Trump wins the R nomination and then procceds to put on a dress and run againt Hillary as a woman Donetza Trump.
Homeboken, a drop of 10 to 20% is not a crash. A correction if anything.
The person could have bought cash, or put a large downpayment. Bank only really cares about their collateral.
Buy a house for 400K worth 350K and you put down 200K not a big deal
Buy a house for 400K worth 350K and you put down 20K it is a big deal
FKA 2010Buyer says:
July 23, 2015 at 3:16 pm
[80] Bystander
I think Greenspan called that “irrational exuberance”.
House listed at 598k. Comps showed 535k which was my final offer. The people who bought it offered 596k. My realtor had no idea how bank appraiser ocould comp that price..oh but magically they did.
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/local-border-patrol-union-pulls-out-trump-border-event-n397126
In a statement, Trump’s campaign said that the local brnach was “were totally silenced directly from superiors in Washington who do not want people to know how bad it is on the border — every bit as bad as Mr. Trump has been saying.”
“It is unfortunate the local union of Border Patrol Agents received pressure at a national level not to participate and ultimately pulled out of today’s event. They are being silenced, and are very unhappy about it, as told directly to Mr. Trump,” the campaign said.
The only things I liked about Trump was his questioning of Maydoff’s golf scores and his anti PETA radio add.
Oh, wait, bought his ‘Art of the Deal’ book back in the 80’s.
Wish I still had a head of hair like that (havn’t lost any it just ‘migrated’). However, that style went out around 1990.
Depending on what source you choose, the national peak to trough price drop was 20-30%… which was a crash. But I guess we can redefine any thing we want.
re # 83 – We will be solidy 7 years into ZIRP by December. How long before the cows come home, two or three more years? Manwhile housing prices are at 2006 levels? What about the last nine years of inflation? That is at least 18% over the last nine years using the CPI stats.
Appraisers must think their job is a joke right now.
The market should always be based on what someone is willing to pay. Everybody has different needs. If someone really desires a property, it should be their right to pay more than their competition in order to close the deal.
Another way of looking at it. Would you pay 2 million for a painting. For me that’s insane, for another person, they feel like that’s a deal. Apply the same thing to real estate. There technically is no overprice or underpriced if the person is paying in cash. Whatever they want to pay is their choice. An appraiser is only there to protect the bank from fraud.—-someone takes out a giant loan to overpay on a house with no intention of paying. Of course they are in on the scam with the seller. They split the money. The bank just lost it all. That’s why appraisers must justify the price to the bank.
Bystander says:
July 23, 2015 at 3:13 pm
Blump, the appraiser can tell you if it is overpriced, right? They would never let buyer overpay. Can’t you just accept pricing is f-ed? There is no way to tell anymore. It is what someone is willing to pay which could be 10-15% more than someone else. I finished second on multi bid situation last year. House listed at 598k. Comps showed 535k which was my final offer. The people who bought it offered 596k. My realtor had no idea how bank appraiser ocould comp that price..oh but magically they did. You have no idea when next crash will be..but with nothing but sand under this economy, it will be sooner than you think.
Smarty, that’s a avgs. There were crashes of 50% all over the place.
joyce says:
July 23, 2015 at 3:32 pm
Depending on what source you choose, the national peak to trough price drop was 20-30%… which was a crash. But I guess we can redefine any thing we want.
92- 30% can be considered a small crash. 1 million dollar house at peak, selling for 700,000 is not the end of the world. Drop it down to 500,000 and you have yourself a crash.
#84 “Donetza”. Sounds like one of those sexy Russian babes looking for a rich American sugar daddy/trophy holder that she can have her way with.
*Note – there are (or used to be) many in NJ Go Go bars. Quote (from several) “I come from little town in Urals you have probably not heard of”.
Me: I know them all which one?
Her: Strolled away.
*I’ve never been to Russia and have not gone to a go go joint in almost a decade. However , do speak some Russian, am an expert in geography and was in the USAF.
http://www.trulia.com/real_estate/Long_Beach-New_York/market-trends/
OK I read an article that South Shore LI home values are shooting up, meanwhile if I got to Trulia it looks like it is going down. What up?
I picked long beach LI as that town sells a ton of properties so the averages are pretty much not effected by a single large or small sale
Who is considered moderate any more with the red party after Jeb wants to end Medicare at a Koch brothers sponsored party? Registered moderate GOP voters are running out of candidates. Medicare solvency was upped from 2017 to 2030 yesterday. If cost are controlled this could go even further
Well, blump, is it fraud if there is home five houses down, same style, almost same sq ft that sold for 530k recently but appraiser ignores it then chooses one two blocks away with higher comp. I see this quite often. Believe me, I blistered my realtor on her comps. She chose to ignore one too because it sold for 515k 5 mos. prior albeit not quite as nice. She did not want me to lowball and that was a “different market” I was told. Appraiser is the jester in the whole charade. They should be required to disclose all sales in 1/4 mile for last 6 mos. and explain why it was not used. Paying those idiots $375 from my pocket for 1 hr. work anyway.
#96
Didn’t know that you were a registered Repub.
[86] JJ
I was talking about a buyer paying more than what its actually worth but you are correct, banks care about their collateral. ….and banks get their perspective on the collateral from the appraiser.
I can’t wait to watch the GOP debates with Trump. It will be very entertaining.
yome
Are you close to 65? Every post is about defending the geezer programs
I wrote “manwhile” and did not even see it till now. I have been avoiding 4 eyes for my whole life. Seems like textbook Presbyopia, anyone have a recommendation for a cure?
I hope Trump does win the nomination. I love the fact that he’s not afraid to insult people and call them out on BS in their face. Clinton needs that. Will he win? Doubtful. Would I want him to? Probably not. But in all honesty, Mitt Romney was completely worthless and the Repubs nominated him. Wouldn’t you rather have seen Trump debating Obama?