Preliminary July sales data for Northern New Jersey is in..
The first graph plots the unadjusted sales data (closed sales) for the counties listed. Please note the lower bound of the graph, it is set to 1000, not to zero. I do this to emphasize the seasonal nature of the Northern NJ market.
(click to enlarge)
The second graph displays the same sales data (2003-2006) for the first four months of the year. Please note that this graph does cross at zero.
(click to enlarge)
The numbers:
January
Average Sales (2003-2005): 2000
2005 Sales: 2013
2006 Sales: 1705
(Down 15.3% Year Over Year)
February
Average Sales (2003-2005): 1583
2005 Sales: 1578
2006 Sales: 1395
(Down 11.6% Year Over Year)
March
Average Sales (2003-2005): 2193
2005 Sales: 2256
2006 Sales: 2033
(Down 9.9% Year Over Year)
April
Average Sales (2003-2005): 2322
2005 Sales: 2383
2006 Sales: 1817
(Down 23.8% Year Over Year)
May
Average Sales (2003-2005): 2615
2005 Sales: 2725
2006 Sales: 2298
(Down 15.7% Year Over Year)
June
Average Sales (2003-2005): 3486
2005 Sales: 3682
2006 Sales: 2911
(Down 20.9% Year Over Year)
July
Average Sales (2003-2005): 3495
2005 Sales: 3338
2006 Sales: 2428
(Down 27.3% Year Over Year)
Data above is GSMLS Sales for Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Morris, Passaic, Somerset, Sussex, Union, and Warren Counties.
Caveat Emptor!
Grim
Not surprising at all. I thought it’s going to be worse.
Nice data, nice work though.
Holy Crap.
Nice to be right!
The false bottom is anon…
cross off 2006
do I hear cross off 2007?
As always my data should be considered a preliminary read on the market.
grim
I think NJ has a problem,
I also think that NJ better start worrying about the right things.
How are we going to afford all
the giveaway programs,if people
are beginning to lose money on
their Real Estate investments.
OT: All this bubble talk has you sweating bullets?
Here’s something to cool you off!
http://www.nymag.com/restaurants/features/19384/
COOOOOLLLAPSE!
CAN’T BE?
DAVEYBOY SEZ SOFT LANDING.
NOT.
I SAY CRASH IS IN THE WORKS.
Inventory just keeps piling up daily.
If you have to sell you better lower your dream price down to reality “FAST” before you chase this thing all the way to the bottom!
Babababa
BUST!
BOOOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAAAA
Bob
CAN[‘T WAIT TO HEAR THE INDUSTRY SPIN?
WHO IS GOING TO BELIEVE WHAT THEWY SAY ANYMORE?
THEY HAVE LOST ALL CREDIBILITY WITH THEIR RESPONSES IN THE LAST 12 -18 MONTHS.
TRANSACTIONS DRYING UP AND SO ARE COMMISHES!
NICE TO SEE THAT REALTORS ARE STARVING. WATCH THE REALTOR DESPERATION START TO BE REAL NOTICEABLE.
IN THE LAST BEAR HOUSING MARKET 1990-1994 REALTORS WOULD HARASS BUYERS. WATCH. I KNOW FIRST HAND. IT WAS BRUTAL.
THE REALTOR HARASSMENT METER WILL SOON BE RISING TO RECORD LEVELS.
HEHEHEHE
Take it easy on the caps.
jb
The Grimster presents the Facts again.
Any Spinmeisters around to tell us it’s a Normal market? Again.
Grim,
Wow.
I wish we could get some more historical data! If I didn’t have this “job” getting in the way of my personal life I’d take the time to get data going back to ’96, but it’s only really valid for Bergen County anyway.
Rich,
I’d appreciate if you could post the NJMLS Bergen July YOY sales again.
grim
what excuse will the spinsters come up with the explain away the coooolapse in transactions?
Realtors know since the commish checks are getting smaller and smaller and smaller.
A big attitude adjustment needed. The attitude adjustment is slowly happening. No COMMISH checks are the best way to to it.
It’s going to be fun watching them squirm.
BOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAAAA
Bob
January – Down 15.3% Year Over Year
February – Down 11.6% Year Over Year
March – Down 9.9% Year Over Year
April – Down 23.8% Year Over Year
May – Down 15.7% Year Over Year
June – Down 20.9% Year Over Year
July – Down 27.3% Year Over Year
These are bad times to be a “greedy grubbing” seller.
“No, concludes economist Christopher Thornberg in a somewhat surprising assessment since he’s been one of the biggest bears about the California real estate market.”
“The market’s in a free-fall as far as sales go. Prices have a longer event horizon, though. ‘The housing bubble pops (and) you don’t get a rapid decline in prices,’ Thornberg said. Here’s Thornberg’s take. ‘I think there is..potential to have a mild retraction in prices, nothing dramatic. Housing prices are going to go down. The key is they are going to go down slowly, not rapidly.’”
“When the last boom cycle ended, the median price fell 36.7 percent from a high of $245,000 in November 1989 to a low of $155,000. He expects sales to retreat to the level of 1993 or 1994 and price declines totaling 10 percent or more.”
WISEUP DUMMIES.
no worries grim, the spring season is going to save all those sellers looking to get peak prices for their properties. like the lowe’s ceo said on bloomberg that the sales slump is just a temporary consumer pullback which will end when they come back in full force ready to rebound their spending in the 2nd quarter of ’07. keep dreamin buddy.
CF-
My fiance and I had thought of 2007 as the year we would buy, but I think i may have to agree with you and look more into 2008 or 2009. It seems like even if it does bottom in 2007, it will remain down into 2009 which means there is no benefit to buy if you can save more money in the meantime.
Grim,
Here are the July YOY sales I posted previously.
This data is Bergen County, Single Family Homes (SFH) ONLY, no Condos/Co-Ops.
The numbers mean the following:
Year Avg$ Median$ #Sold #UnderContract
1996 $289,816 $231,000 721 616
1997 $290,365 $230,000 821 648
1998 $315,057 $249,000 861 673
1999 $356,619 $279,100 854 611
2000 $365,792 $286,000 740 609
2001 $430,339 $333,000 812 636
2002 $469,927 $369,000 800 638
2003 $529,185 $420,000 845 871
2004 $694,661 $510,000 945 689
2005 $660,848 $520,000 779 666
2006 $677,783 $525,000 665 550
I have 4 consecutive conference calls tomorrow afternoon, so I may pull this data again including Condos/Co-Ops. I may even get the data for August on hand.
No year is good until we see tightening of lending standards.
“No year is good until we see tightening of lending standards”
Okay you got your wish.
Some Lenders Cut Riskier Mortgages
Monday August 21, 3:27 pm ET
By Lingling Wei, Dow Jones Newswires
Some Lenders Cut Riskier Mortgages Due to Wall Street Pressure
NEW YORK (AP) — Some mortgage lenders are feeling the heat from Wall Street to tighten their lending standards and cut their exposure to riskier loans.
The force at work is the increasing demand from investment banks for lenders to buy back the loans due to borrowers’ failure to make their first few payments on those loans. Such “early payment defaults” so far have largely been limited to nonprime mortgages made to borrowers who pay higher rates than those qualifying for standard loans due to their weak credit or inadequate documentation.
njresident286,
For what it is worth, I agree 100% with CF. We hear the same rhetoric from the NAR/realtors how it is different this time, the economy is good, rates are still at historic lows, it will be a soft landing, etc…. There has not been a soft landing in the history of any market, after it has gone through a bubble-like mania.
Let’s talk about something that you don’t hear from the industry. Two words, GREED and FEAR. I believe the last 30-40% of the up move were based on this and this only. When markets are moving up like this one, invariably greed constitutes a good part of the move. Buying one property was not enough, they had to flip 20. Everybody is making $. This is where FEAR sets in. Those on the sidelines have to get in because they FEAR if they don’t, they never will. Prices will be up another 100k next year. They have a major FEAR that if they don’t act now, they’ll be left out in the cold. The herd stampedes in, bidding wars occur. Hurry get in!!!!!!
Now the market does not have to come down based on any economic factors, it will and is imploding on its own GREED and FEAR. That’s right, what brought this up to ridiculous, exaggerated levels will bring it down.The corresponding drop will be equally pronounced, GREED and FEAR.
Now buyers are on strike. Why??? GREED and FEAR. Educated buyers will in no manner participate after just a 10% drop. They will get GREEDY (this is good GREED). They want to be assured they are not buying into a market that is still going down. There is a great FEAR on the part of buyers now that they are not buying value. Yes, GREED and FEAR will lead this market down. Usually the corresponding drop is greater than the upmove. It’s the inevitable laws that govern prices. Nobody wants to buy when prices are falling. This will take time. Who knows what the fed will do when the $2 trillion in adj comes due in 2007. It is possible that you can have a little spike up sometine during this down move. Don’t be fooled by this dead cat bounce.
We will be witnessing the biggest financial disaster in US history. Yes, bigger than the 1929, 1978 and the dot com crash. It will take a long time for the smoke to clear. Be patient.
FYI, for investments in the future, please be leary of following the herd. I asked a very successful investor why he was so successful. He said, “I always sold too soon”. In 2003, I asked more than 50 people employed in the financial industry, where they were investing their $. Not one said precious metals or foreign currencies. What do you think I’m in???
Just remember if you are on the sidelines now, you are on the right side of the trade. The herd is stuck and can’t get out.
PATIENCE,PATIENCE,PATIENCE
BC Bob
Whoa Bergs….
“We will be witnessing the biggest financial disaster in US history.”
That call could very well be prescient, but seriously, don’t go too far here.
I want to catch this Spike Lee Katrina thing on HBO….I ‘ll explain more later or tomorrow.
We blew right past the 750,000 hit mark this past week. At this pace we are set to hit the million mark by early October.
grim
It’s pretty much downhill from here on until the next spring. Once everyone gets the news tomorrow, they’ll pull the reigns and slow down.
-Richie
The REs are running out of the “For Sale” signs. May be they need to share the same sign between couple of houses !
It has been bad around here too. There were some sales that happened towards the end of July and first week of August.
Overall though, things are very very slow. Asking prices are coming down slowly…like a trickle 5-10-15K at a time month after month.
It is just amazing how things have changed in last 6-7 months. Even a retired lay man can see that while taking a lazy walk.
If I was is the market I would just relax, watch and wait. In the mean time I would beaf up my savings. It’s like preparing for a show down in the coming years.
Central Jersey Observer
“I have 4 consecutive conference calls tomorrow afternoon, so I may pull this data again including Condos/Co-Ops.”
LOL, way to multitask. At least conference calls are good for something!
im guilty as heck of doing that on conf calls too LOL
–BM
Today’s paper had a four-color Foxton’s insert. The last page is their house ad for agents. Their pitch: brag about how many more LISTINGS you have this year over last! LMAO.
Which newspaper?
Toll brothers reports. It a diaster.
Throws in the towel on various
land deals . Mostly in Fla. and
Ca.
We are in the early stages,
TrOLL trims again
link
For fiscal 2007, Toll said it expects to deliver between 7,000 and 8,000 homes at an average price of between $635,000 and $645,000. That’s down from this year’s projected deliveries of 8,600 to 8,900 houses at $685,000 to $690,000.
That’s approx 8% reduction in average price. In my opinion we can expect more when the next quarter results are read out.
Does anyone know what thier previous projections were?
Hopefully now, we won’t have to hear “close to NYC” for houses with no selling points
its about time
i get google alerts on buuble releated articles everyday and everyday i get more articles
there should be a nice market for pre -owned automobiles as well
hard to carry that bmw lease with no steady income
oh well on to the next get rich quick skeme
oh well on to the next get rich quick skeme
Beanie Babies again?
Watch some of the Regional
Banks to take a swan dive, as
the construction loans start to have problems.
I have already seen a project
where the second bank is already
in the deal: reason: the
builder has sold none of the homes
he built.
Watch the banks.
Any regions look most vlunerable?
All these so called well written loans will come back to bite many banks. should Be fertile hunting ground in a few years like early mid 1990’s for bank stocks.The key is to find the banks that get hit down mainly from negative sector affiliation while basic fundamentals hold together.
http://www.welovetheiraq
iinformationminister.com/
RE reference guide
Rich,
Four consecutive conference calls? Ugh.
the market deterioration is starting to pick up. might be due to DOM or just the winter season approaching. i’ve seen nothing sell for original asking price in the last 2 months. nothing. the top towns are holding out a bit better than everyone else but all movement is south.
folks, if you’re buying a house now you are taking a big risk of having it worth less in 6-12 months than today. if you have equity it’s a bit easier to chance it. no equity? that’s hard earned cash you’re bringing via a down payment so consider carefully.
oh another property in short hills relisted in July that just fell out of contract. nowhere is immune.
http://www.realtor.com/Prop/1064548423
question for the board. friend is looking at renting a townhouse. the landlord paid $400k for it with $160 a month maintenance and $4371 in taxes. what’s a fair rental price? thanks.
Richard:
Why doesn’t your friend look in the paper and see the advertised rents for similar units?
I’m thinking a lot of them on Craigslist seem high, compared to the rents I see from the long-time landlords who are used to printing the same ads in the paper for years and don’t need to jack up the rent so much. Even the ones who use home rental service companies seem lower.
Pat
http://newjersey.craigslist.org
/apa/
pat this is a unique townhouse in that it’s in a small complex and they’re not rentals. i figured using the straight up math once could deduce a reasonable rent.
Analyst on Bloomberg:
Strongest U.S. markets
SF, Dallas, Seattle [fleeting though]
Weakest
AZ, Vegas, Certain areas of Florida, Philadelphia, Central New Jersey
OK, I may be a bit of a contrarian on a contrarian website, but my personal experience is that there has been an upturn in the market from the depths of summer. I also think the fact that things are not selling at asking price is a function of market uncertainty and the challenge of pricing as the market shifts. I have bought three houses in my lifetime–1986, 1993 and 1996. In each of those transactions, there was no expectation that the selling price would be the listing price; as a buyer, I assumed that was just a starting point for negotiations. The trend to sell at something off list is a reversion to historical practice. When I priced my house (in June) I also assumed that that no one would offer asking price–because it was clear that no one is offering asking price, even on a “fairly” priced house (because once again you’re a sucker to pay list). This is self-perpetuating–as it becomes unthinkable to offer ask, sellers overprice to allow for the discount. The agents might not like it, as the “discount” makes the market look bad–perhaps worse than it is. I am more interested in year over year for comparable properties, and those are still showing modest gains in my neck of the woods (but not enough to even cover transaction costs if you needed to sell in less than a year or two).
–CJ Sell-out
Richard:
They might have to compete with this!
http://newjersey.
craigslist.org/apa
/197272653.html
Pat
There is an upturn in the market but the driving force are folks trying to lock in on a school district before the start of academic year. In my opinion that trend will die as quickly as it started.
The condo market is imploding.
http://newjersey.craigs
list.org/rfs/
Please do yourself a favor and consult with grimster or another wise poster here before you do something stupid.
I’m not seeing this “upturn” at all.
Are people seeing Grim’s data at the top of this thread?
January – Down 15.3% Year Over Year
February – Down 11.6% Year Over Year
March – Down 9.9% Year Over Year
April – Down 23.8% Year Over Year
May – Down 15.7% Year Over Year
June – Down 20.9% Year Over Year
July – Down 27.3% Year Over Year
Market “collapse” is too kind a word.
Does anyone have advice for someone in my situation: a potential seller-and-buyer, within New Jersey? Specifically, I’m considering selling my Madison home (bought for $610k four years ago) and buying a little bit more out west in the Califon/Tewksbury area. I can’t seem to figure out how this market affects someone in both a buying and a selling position.
“I can’t seem to figure out how this market affects someone in both a buying and a selling position.”
If you’re buying a more expensive home, it pays to wait if you run the numbers.
A 10% decline on the price of both homes means the larger the price drops, the more you’ll save to move up.
Run the numbers. 10% off $500K and 10% off $700K.
Then run 20% off each and compare.
Since sales are backward looking, it often helps to look at contracts to gauge the state of the market. Since there is a lag between Contract and Sale, you can use the current contracts number to get a “feel” for future sales.
Under Contract (GSMLS)
Bergen
June 168
July 142
Essex
June 511
July 424
Morris
June 536
July 439
Realize month to month comparisons are subject to huge seasonal variation.
When contracts are declining on a month to month basis, sales will also decline on a month to month basis.
If the market is picking up anywhere, it’s certainly not evident in the statistics..
grim
grim
Housing Slump Threatens Jobs
link
Housing-related employment now accounts for about 1 in every 10 jobs, a record, according to Moody’s Economy.com
Off Topic, but check out what I found on the MLS general mail section (message board for njmls members)
TO GET THOSE LISTINGS TO HOPEFULLY SELL FASTER…. CONSIDER THE ST.JOSEPH STATUES NOW AVAILABLE AT $3.00 EACH! WITH THIS MARKET WE COULD USE ALL THE HELP WE CAN GET!!!! CALL 201-317-9321 OR 201-818-9944 WITH YOUR ORDER TODAY!
good read
http://www.marketwatch.com/
News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=
mktw&guid=%7B9FE7F780%
2DDF3B%2D46FA%2DBB3D%2D5104309EEEA5%7D&
column=Paul%20B.%20Farrell
Anon @ 1:11,
Nice catch.
grim
From Marketwatch:
More rate hikes may be needed to curb inflation: Moskow
Financial markets should not assume that the Federal Reserve is done tightening, just because it paused at its last meeting after 17 straight rate hikes, said Michael Moskow, the president of the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank on Tuesday. Moskow has persistently delivered an anti-inflation warning to financial markets this year, and his remarks today were no exception. He said his assessment of current economic conditions is “that the risk of inflation remaining too high is greater than the risk of growth being too low. Thus some additional firming of policy may yet be necessary to bring inflation back into the comfort zone within a reasonable period of time.”
From Marketwatch:
Guynn: Consequences of high inflation remain ‘poisonous’
Outgoing Atlanta Fed president Jack Guynn summed up his four decade career at the central bank in a speech Tuesday and warned his colleagues not to forget the lessons from the 1970s that high inflation can ruin an economy. “The consequences of high inflation were and remain economically poisonous: increased uncertainty and risk, the added incentive to consume rather than invest, cost of living adjustments, and other marketplace distortions,” Guynn said in remarks prepared for delivery to the Kiwanis Club of Atlanta.
I can’t help asking, are those statues made in China? :)
I can’t seem to figure out how this market affects someone in both a buying and a selling position.
If the price of the new house is comparable or less, you will probably be fine. Just make 110% sure to include a contingency that stipulates that your existing house must sell to close on the new house.
If the new house is more expensive, I would wait.
adjustables will be readjusted soon enough, property taxes being revaluated, and 50 more basis points will crash this market in spring 07.
increase in inventory will acclerate.
its done.
There’s a cute four-bedroom, two-bath house in our town that’s been up for sale by owner for a few weeks. The other day we noticed there was a For Rent sign along with the For Sale sign. My husband, son and I rent in the same town in a two-family house. We’re happy there but could use more room. So I called just for the heck of it to see how much it was renting for. I told him I was looking for a long-term rental, about two years. The seller was very nice, but said that he’s looking for a tenant for no more than a year because he wants to get rid of the house. He completely remodeled it, the outside is adorable, and the kitchen and bathroom are completely updated. (He kept stressing the granite countertops.) He was offering it for $575K, or $2800/month for rent. Way too much for rent, IMO, since similar houses in town rent for about $2K. He did say that he was open to a rent-to-buy option, and that he’d be willing to lower the price to the low $500s. I said, sorry, we’re looking for a house in the $400K range. (Well, the $300K range is more like it, but I obviously can’t say that in today’s market.) So I thanked the guy and wished him luck. It’ll be interesting to watch this house and see how long it stays on the market. RML
chicagofinance:
Did you see the analyst comments about the strongest and weakest markets online or on Bloomberg TV? I would be interested in seeing this.
Thanks.
Bloomberg radio program
On the Money between 9AM & 9:15AM
Discussion of Toll Brothers and related topics
Neal Conan is chatting now and taking questions..”How’s the housing market going where you live?”
In a few minutes: effects on economy.
http://www.npr.org
/templates/story
/story.php?storyId=5690967
Pat
Here are the numbers for July, Bergen County ONLY. These numbers include SFH, Condos, Co-Ops & Twnhses.
The numbers mean the following:
Year Avg$ Med$ Sold UnderContract
1995 $229,172 $205,000 450 598*
1996 $269,956 $218,000 890 741
1997 $265,457 $218,000 1014 826
1998 $282,631 $222,500 1101 878
1999 $321,389 $250,000 1093 850
2000 $324,754 $260,000 986 842
2001 $381,572 $300,000 1059 855
2002 $416,943 $335,000 1069 893
2003 $469,366 $380,000 1130 1138
2004 $608,696 $455,000 1282 967
2005 $588,485 $480,000 1082 944
2006 $607,368 $490,000 902 751
*1995 data may be incomplete as I believe this is the first year this data becomes available.
i expect sales to drop another 20% before this market bottoms out. price drops? who the heck knows.
RML, $2800 a month is crazy talk for that house granite counter tops and all. he’ll be lucky to get $2200 in this market. rentals are starting to pile up as all those ‘investors’ reading Rich Dad, Poor Dad sit with vacant properties wondering why the surefire strategy of someone else paying your mortgage isn’t working. fools.
rentals are starting to pile up
So nothing is selling, and nothing is renting….are people living in tents?
“So nothing is selling, and nothing is renting….are people living in tents?”
No but “investors” are not living in their vacant flip houses.
People are not living in tents. But with thousands and thousands of new units, people can pick and choose a little more. There is a ton of vacancy in my commercial space so there are no rental increases this year. The residential market is the same way. Everyone wants to retain their tenants.
D2B
Un:
Beat me to the punch. And I’d like to add a corollary to your postulate: Investors are not living in their vacant flip homes … that were purchased by leveraging the equity in their primary homes.
Eep!
-Jamey
There is a ton of vacancy in my commercial space so there are no rental increases this year. The residential market is the same way.
Help me understand this, please…I thought that when interest rates go up, fewer people buy, so the alternative, rental housing, becomes more in demand.
Are you saying that there is a glut of housing of all types in the NY metro area–both to rent and to buy?
I know that the NYC apt vacancy rate is something like 1/2 of 1 percent…miniscule. What is the vacancy rate in NNJ?
I have not read anything that indicates a glut of rentals anywhere. Can you point me to your sources?
realitycheck:
Have you tried watching the new number of craigslist ads for rent to own? I was surprised today. This is like an old memory from me..gimmicks from the early 90s.
I can’t recall seeing that as much in the last five years.
I watch the rentals in print also, as well as signage on homes in my Bucks County (commuters to Central NJ) area. I can’t give you links, but the rentals are there. Do you think it makes sense that some recent purchasers/flippers don’t yet have the rental expertise, so rentals are showing oddly? My gut again. Maybe too much asparagus for dinner.
Would be interesting to get inventory data from the companies that advertise/rent homes for a fee of $100 to the renter.
Pat
realitycheck, do you own research. go on craigslist and look in the classifieds. there are many people who bought recently to be landlords and think they’ll retire by 40. they can’t cover their carrying costs. people are just not running out and renting or buying since both are at unaffordable rates. the last 5 year run up got most people who wanted to buy a house in ‘the game’. the pool of potential buyers at these unaffordable levels is now small. so is the renting pool at the $1800+ level. that’s where i’m seeing the glut start to form. people think they’re so smart until the market teaches them otherwise. i’m seeing 3BR 2.5BA townhouses in nice towns still sitting vacant after 6-9 months even with rental drops of $500 a month.
NYC vacancies are at historic lows. this is one of the places bucking the trend but it usually does for a while.
in summary there just isn’t a big enough pool of folks to fill the vacancies out there.
people are just not running out and renting or buying since both are at unaffordable rates.
So, as I said before…if folks are not renting or buying, where the heck are they living?
Sorry, but I’d like to see some actual figures on vacancies. The ones I’ve seen, for the the first Q of 2006, put the rental vacancy rate in NJ at 3.7%. Hardly a glut–the national rental vacancy rate approaches 10%.
Let’s stick to the facts here. If vacancies are indeed soaring, as you suggest, surely someone can point to a source of data more compelling than Craigs List to prove it.
Great Board! Fascinating….homeowner in Essex Co….(W. Orange)….our neighborhood has seen massive homes go up in place of smaller ones and major additions on existing homes…we did well when we bought in 2002…very pleased so far. Love the area, proximity to NYC, the home itself….doing upgrades slowly like new top of the line Pellas all around…plan to stay a while….bubble/schmubble….screw the ‘flippers’…