September inventory numbers are in! Since I do my data gathering around noon each day, I’m going to post this data up a bit earlier than I was planning. I’d still like to wait until sometime after close of business tonite to tally up the sales data for the month, just to be sure the last minute additions make into the stats (I don’t want to be accused of somehow doctoring or being selective about my stats).
For new readers, I define Northern New Jersey as the following counties: Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Morris, Somerset, Sussex, Union, and Warren (Sorry, Middlesex numbers weren’t included this month).
Now, I admit I was expecting a jump in numbers, but by the half way point I knew my guess was way off. So here it is, without further ado, the figures please..
10.5%
Yes, 10.5% increase in active listings on GSMLS in one single month. Why? Are more people listing? Are fewer selling? Unfortunately, I wish I had access to the database to run some more complex queries and stats, but I don’t. If anyone would like to make that data available to me, I’d love to see it. Anyhow, back to the topic at hand, it looks like the jump was a bit of both. Last minute sellers trying to catch the bandwagon before it’s long gone, and a serious drop in sales in the September numbers (you’ll need to wait until tomorrow to see those).
So lets see the numbers (Counties include: Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Morris, Passaic, Somerset, Sussex, Union, and Warren).
9/1/2005 – 11405
9/30/2005 – 12612
There was a steady rise each day, with only a single day drop. I think the graph can help illustrate the trend.
It’s hard to argue that prices will remain stable with supply increasing at this rate. If this trend continues there will be significant pricing pressure on sellers in the near future. I expect this trend to continue through the winter months as we’re heading into the winter sales slump. While I don’t believe we’ll see large price changes in a short period of time (due to both buyer and seller psychology), I do believe we’re past the peak of this parabola. Nowhere to go now but down.
Buyers, please don’t feel like somehow you are going to be ‘priced out‘ or are ‘missing the boat‘. If you buy at this point you are the greater fool. Don’t be pressured into a sale by your agent, family, or friends. Believe me when I tell you that you have nothing to gain and everything to lose.
Caveat Emptor!
-grim
My math is rusty but …. 10.583% monthly increase is an annualized increase of 234.4%? Buhahahahahaha. I’m sure someone will find a way to spin that.
That’s great news (for us would-be homeowners). I think that there will be a great deal of suspense to see what buyers do come the spring. However, like all bubbles, there will be millions of people rushing to cash out. 2006 should be very interesting. We are hoping to buy late in 2006, so it will be a lot of fun to watch.
We’re also hoping to buy late in 2006. Do you think that will be a smart time to buy? I admit to having some fear of being the person who buys in the first downturn, only to see prices drop further, but also have a healthy fear of NOT buying at a good time (and I’m not talking about perfectly timing the market for the lowest point) and seeing prices rise like mad again.
Like everyone else, my wife and I would love to jump into a home right now, but we’re going to hold off. Hold off until when? Until we feel we can get the home we want at a price we can comfortably afford.
As realistic buyers, we’re looking for the long haul, not short term. We’re looking for a home we want to live in, not one we’re just settling for temporarily.
If we catch the bottom, that’s just icing on the cake, were not trying to time the market here. However, I refuse to be left holding the bag on a dump we paid overpaid for.
Until then we (my wife and I, the dog and the fish) are happy renters.
-grim
We are looking to buy a permanent home, keep it for 20-30 years. I am not looking to get in at THE bottom. I just don’t like having to bid up prices, as the case has been around here the last few years. It will take time for the psychology of sellers and the general public to change. By late next year, I think more people will be talking like we are now. It takes time, and as many people have said, this bubble is all about psychology. The true bottom probably won’t be for another few years. Having lived through the dot com bubble front row center, I see so many similarities in people’s psychology. Most are in for a rude awakening. Those big screen TV’s cost money.
The market is turning down right now.Next year we will be in full blown correction mode whereby sellers will be accepting much lower prices. Although many that have owned a house for 6+ years are probably not at risk of losing money but their past paper profits will evaporate.
Problem is getting accurate information from an industry that spins and manipulates the data.
My prediction? Housing bubble will let out some gas starting 10/17 after the new Bankruptcy law is enacted (including the new Credit card regulation).
And I believe that there will be a rapid drop in the price next Spring to Summer. After that price will slowly decrease for another year and will stagnate for a year or two. I believe that the NNJ housing price will drop between 20%-30% within next 2-3 years.