From Philly Magazine:
Philly Houses Are Selling Faster — and for More Money — Than Ever. How Long Can That Last?
Right now, the competition for properties is so fierce that decent houses get a flood of offers and sell quickly, and even the turkeys find buyers at asking price.
According to Kevin C. Gillen, senior research fellow at Drexel University’s Lindy Institute for Urban Innovation, this market is like none he’s seen in his years of analyzing Philadelphia residential real estate sales. Since last summer, he says, the market has outstripped even the 2008 market, the peak year of the real-estate bubble: “It’s the hottest market I’ve ever seen in terms of turnover rate, the amount of sales, the million-dollar sales, the price appreciation, the rapid turnover of homes once they’re listed. On any metric you want to bring to bear, the market is between red-hot and white-hot.”
Some of this, Gillen says, is due to cyclical factors that routinely affect the housing market. One of those is interest rates that stand at all-time lows: “When interest rates are low, houses become more affordable, and that tends to push prices up.” Combine that with extremely low inventories of houses for sale, and the prices rise even further. “But the other big factor is that after the pandemic, there’s been a structural shift in the economy, from spending outside of the house to spending in the house.”
That’s due to two main factors, he says. “First of all, you have more people working remotely from home than ever before, so your house isn’t just where you live; it’s now your office. Since you spend more time there, you’re incentivized to make the house more pleasant for you.
“On top of that, because of COVID, you couldn’t go out, so all the money that would be spent on dining out or going to the theater and museums or traveling on vacation, people are spending in their home. So your home isn’t just where you live and work; it’s where you play — it’s your gym, it’s your spa, it’s your theater, it’s your restaurant. Your yard is your park.” And people have been willing to spend on home amenities as well as on homes that have them. Gillen says that since the pandemic began, outdoor items such as swimming pools and tennis courts, which usually add no value to a property at best, have skyrocketed in worth. Broker Mike McCann of Keller Williams Philly says that in the suburbs, “People are telling me it takes a year or more to get a pool installed. Even getting servicing for a pool is taking forever.”
first
I always thought the Philly area and outlining suburbs appeared more affordable than the NYC/NJ/CT area. I don’t know if it was because of jobs, desirability, a knock on the Philly area or whatever. I haven’t read the article yet above but I assume they’re experiencing a buying frenzy on par with the rest of the country. I always thought Philly had its particular charm, despite the obvious chip on the shoulder of born and raised Philadelphians. I taught administrative software to school districts in that area years ago and they were the most difficult of any district I visited. Despite that, I like(d) the heritage and history of the city. If you’re a Giants football fan, going to the old Veteran’s Stadium was putting your life at risk. :o
‘merica
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2021/07/27/ozarks-lake-covid-unvaccinated-500784
Saw that headline photo, and thought to myself, man, whoever did that photo editing word must have not realized they changed that aspect ratio and stretched that image wider. But then, nah, #merica.
Heard some interesting commentary on eviction moratorium funds, and why take-up has been extremely low.
It’s that late renters won’t qualify.
No, not because they can’t pay, but because they could pay, this whole time.
Well Missouri won’t top NYC anytime soon. There are over 3 million adults 18+ mouth breathers walking around NYC unvaccinated. Vaccination rate in NYC is only 10,000 a day now.
Super spreader event?
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9850927/Obama-defies-CDC-guidance-inviting-500-people-60th-birthday-party-Marthas-Vineyard.html
Obama defies CDC guidance by inviting 500 people to his celebrity-studded 60th birthday party at his $12m mansion on Martha’s Vineyard: Pearl Jam will perform and guests including Steven Spielberg will be served by 200 staff.
Of course!! Of course!! What do you expect of the ivory tower charlatans who claim to fight for the little people? They’re champagne s0c1al1sts! Which chromosome do their ap0stles lack not seeing what this group is all about?
From the Politico article:
“In a county designated a Covid hot spot, in a state with one of the lowest vaccination rates in the nation, and in a region where hospitals are nearing capacity as the Delta variant takes hold, Erin, a bartender at Backwater Jack’s, couldn’t be in a more vulnerable position…A year ago, Backwater Jack’s made national news after photos went viral of partiers packed inside the pool area, ignoring guidelines to avoid crowds and keep a distance from others…”
So how did the three counties referenced further in the article fair after the abomination of last year that dominated the headlines?
Quick scan of the NYT tracker map shows a lower death rate than Morris or Somerset counties in NJ.
Guess all that anguish and hand wringing last year really didn’t matter, nor did the partying vs. the lockdowns…
Biased, garbage reporting. Wrong the first time so, hey, why not double down? Maybe #merica knows something that East Coast frightened femme liberals don’t….
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html?pageType=LegacyCollection&collectionName=Maps+and+Trackers&label=Maps+and+Trackers&module=hub_Band®ion=inline&template=storyline_band_recirc
All together now:
O Canada! Our home and native land!
True patriot love in all of us command.
With glowing hearts we see thee rise,
The True North strong and free!
From far and wide,
O Canada, we stand on guard for thee.
God keep our land glorious and free!
O Canada, we stand on guard for thee.
O Canada, we stand on guard for thee.
Lol!
Any coverage from politico of the COVID positive illegals streaming over the border? Bringing in who-knows-what variants from all corners of the world. I didn’t think so.
Mark it down, Fauci out as the face of the response within the next four weeks.
In a sane world, we wouldn’t have a king of the NIH for 40 years. In a sane world, he would have been put in the background for his Jan/Feb 2020 comments regarding how this virus is no danger to Americans. Instead, we annointed him, high priest of science. In a sane world, we would fire him for clearly misleading the public during congressional testimony. I’ll settle for, let him keep his salary and tell him to go away at this point. He’s not helping at all. Quite the opposite.
If we only had a wall.
Fauci’s presence is equally as politicized as everything else. Dems won’t ever dismiss him. His presence has nothing to do with effectiveness, knowledge, or otherwise. Dems will keep him there because Republicans want him gone. It’s as simple as that. “Nah nah nana nah” is the political strategy here. We have a government filled with 3 year olds.
Wasn’t it obvious people could always pay their rent? Their personal income went up with their unemployment $600 bonus and all these stimulus cash drops.
It’s the eviction crisis that never was, bend over landlords.
“Any coverage from politico of the COVID positive illegals streaming over the border? Bringing in who-knows-what variants from all corners of the world. I didn’t think so.”
Lambda.
Dominant strain in South America. Making its way through Central America. Early indications it is more prone to getting around neutralizing antibodies.
First case found in US a week or two ago in….drumroll…..TX.
“Instead, we annointed him, high priest of science.”
Useful idiot.
For both sides Administrations. Trump bent and broke him, Biden picked up the plate of jello and served it for dessert. Once he is no longer useful – soon, since anyone who was going to listen has and Biden will need a scapegoat – he’s out.
Won’t be fired, no ‘civil servant’ ever is, but just put out to pasture and replaced.
Might be sooner than we all think. Biden’s comments from the other day on the media blowing the CDC comments on Delta out of proportion, are telling.
Not surprised that we’re always ahead of the curve…
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-08-02/would-you-get-a-covid-shot-for-a-lower-health-bill?srnd=premium
(CNN) With the recent increase of Covid-19 infections and hospitalizations due to the spread of the highly transmissible Delta variant, health experts and officials expect the surge to worsen as long as large segments of the country remain unvaccinated.
“We will see this big, steep acceleration,” Dr. Peter Hotez, co-director for the Center for Vaccine Development at Texas Children’s Hospital, told CNN’s Anderson Cooper on Friday. “As bad as things are right now in the South, they are about to get worse for lots of unvaccinated individuals.”
In the past week, Florida has averaged 1,525 adult hospitalizations a day, and 35 daily pediatric hospitalizations. Both are the highest per capita rate in the nation, according to Jason Salemi, an associate professor of epidemiology at the University of South Florida.
The hospitalizations and increasing cases have come as the new, more transmittable delta variant has spread throughout Florida, and residents have returned to pre-pandemic activities.
“The recent rise is both striking and not-at-all surprising,” Salemi said in an email late Saturday.
Federal health data released Saturday showed that Florida reported 21,683 new cases of COVID-19, the state’s highest one-day total since the start of the pandemic. The latest numbers were recorded on Friday and released on Saturday on the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s website. The figures show how quickly the number of cases is rising in the Sunshine State: only a day earlier, Florida reported 17,093 new daily cases.
Don’t forget the lawn chairs.
Ex
And the vaccinated will be negatively impacted, even if they don’t catch COVID. Think how bad the emergency rooms and icus will be in another month or two. Don’t have a heart attack or accident. Those er and hospital beds will be full of non vaccinated and the medical staff will be exhausted from overwork.
Nobody wants to hear that! Reality is a crutch…
So much anecdotal evidence being presented this morning, it’s overwhelming.
Go ahead and get sick. If you haven’t been already. More power to ya.
Had a cold come through and hit all the non adults within 1-2 days. Fever and runny noses. Corona viruses are adept little organisms. Not all novel of course but neither will ‘19 be once it’s done making the rounds.
These books come at the same time that Republican leaders seem to be doubling down on their recognition that Trump remains the most important leader of the Republican Party. But they — and all Americans — should see these accounts as an urgent reminder of recent tumultuous history, and a new warning of the risks that are all too foreseeable, should they help him return to power.
Indeed, absurdly, during Trump’s term in office, many Republicans often acted surprised about the former president’s behavior. Despite a long-track record and visible history in the public eye, there were expressions of disbelief when Trump used his authority in aggressive fashion to pursue his own political objectives or when he refused to abide by traditional norms of governance.
But none of this should have come as a shock. The way that Trump acted as president fit into well-established patterns of who he was during his days as a controversial, media savvy real estate mogul in New York and as a reality show star who used his platform to, for example, question the birthplace of the nation’s first African American president (a claim he later retracted.) Unlike the outsider Jimmy Carter in 1976, for instance, Trump was a well-known commodity. All someone had to do was listen to him demonstrate his values in appearances on the Howard Stern Show or read the New York Post to understand what “The Donald” was all about.
Of course, now the record is even more extensive. There is the entire history of his presidency, during which he was quite transparent about the rules of the office that he thought to be irrelevant to his personal success, and the lengths to which he was willing to go in political combat.
The first of his two impeachments centered on his withholding of almost $400 million in congressionally approved military aid in order to extract from an allied leader unfounded “dirt” on his opponent, Joe Biden (he denies this).
Stephen A. Smith's xenophobic comments put post-Euro racism in global context
Stephen A. Smith’s xenophobic comments put post-Euro racism in global context
He later used the power of his bully pulpit to rhetorically delegitimize the 2020 election results in the eyes of his supporters, a determined effort that blew up with the violence of January 6. Since that insurrection, which he incited, and for which he was impeached, Trump has shown very little contrition — and in recent weeks started to praise some of those who stormed the Capitol.
In the Leonnig and Rucker book we see how a high-ranking military official reportedly harbored real fears about a president who would ignore the results of a democratic election and seize power using force if necessary.
In Michael Wolff’s “Landslide” we find out he contemplated using the pandemic as an excuse to postpone the election altogether.
And Wall Street Journal reporter Michael Bender reports that Trump allegedly told Chief of Staff John Kelly during a 2018 visit to Europe that “Hitler did a lot of good things,” according to Bender’s “Frankly, We Did Win This Election: The Inside Story of How Trump Lost.” Trump also reportedly told advisers in 2020 that whoever leaked information about his fleeing with his family to a bunker during the George Floyd protests outside the White House that May had committed treason and should be executed for sharing details about the episode with the press.
ABC News reporter Jonathan Karl reports in a forthcoming book that Trump grew furious at former Attorney General William Barr, who disputed Trump’s claim that there was widespread voter fraud.
To be sure, Trump often did not deliver on his many threats and pronouncements—and he will challenge some of the claims in this slew of new books; it will take time to evaluate their accuracy. He has already raged against them, claiming that many of the revelations are not true.
Yet there is enough solid reporting already, combined with the public record, to make clear his views about presidential power. If Trump decides to run again, and Republicans coalesce around him — with unshakeable and obsequious loyalty — as the head of their establishment, there shouldn’t be room for them to claim how taken aback they are about the things he might be willing to do.
CDC data says so far 6,600 severe breakthrough cases out of more than 163 million fully vaccinated people, ofcoure all of those 163 million have not been exposed to the virus but the numbers are encouraging.
0.004% of full vaccinated people 6,600 hospitalized so far. Death recorded approx. 1600 or 0.001%. Don’t have the ages and underlying conditions in front of me but most likely similar to the unvaccinated.
De Blasio will be back to day with more mask guidance for NYC. I gather the indoor businesses restaurant, retail etc are going to get hit hard again.
Weather is cooler today. I am going for a nice long bike ride to the beach and back, keep the weight off and get the needed cardio…to not be in that 0.004% group.
Drove to Florida this weekend. Initial observation from SWFL is that mask usage is slightly more prevalent than in NJ. At the gym, all staff were masked, while only a few customers wore masks — in NJ gym staff are not masked and also very few customers masked. At food store, about half of employees and half of customers masked here in FL — seemed similar to NJ. Saturday night in Savannah was a different story — the place was packed and people partying like it was 2019 (2+ hour waits at restaurants) with very little mask usage, including the shuckers at Sorry Charlie’s oyster bar where we finally found a couple of seats. Additional observation is that every woman headed to the rooftop bar at SC’s must’ve been wearing the tightest dress that they could squeeze themselves into — lots of heavily-stressed zippers!
haha, just flipped on the Olympics and the female trans NZ weightlifter is on. My son was staring at it knowing something quite doesn’t add up.
I’m losing a lot of weight myself (have too much to lose, so it will take a while). Not due to covid, but just want to live longer and hockey season is in September and I’m not sure I can string my aglets through their lace holes donning hockey pants at this point.
I’m not worried about breakthrough cases either. I understand the science. Though I still will take as many precautions as I can to help stop the spread. I guess I’m the moron for the helping the asses.
lol, now he asked, “does heavyweight mean fat?”
Ex,
Trump lost two senate seats on candidates he endorsed. His house candidate in Texas ,Susan Wright, just lost as well. They are holding on until mid-terms as the party has nothing else except a failure with his faux fraud message. Look at AZ recount – a joke. They are trying to maintain alarmist ‘soci&lism’ message and unsustianable debt yet the jig is up. They exploded it themselves under Trump. It is a lost party. Presidents age after office. A 78 year old Trump in 3 years? He had the most votes against him. People will repudiate him a second time. A terrible candidate like Biden only got in because Trump was so awful. Rs know this.
BRT,
Other autistic boy that I drive to D’s school in a carpool was wearing a skirt this morning. Who am I to question his parents’ choices? Live and let live, though I did feel a little off strapping him into his baby seat (parent’s don’t even want him in a booster yet, though he must be close to 60 pounds already). Before the right get’s completely maddened by this, be aware that this kid throws physical tantrums so easily that if he asked to wear a mankini to school, at this point, his parents would probably have said yes as well.
My son, looked at him a bit funny and then went on reading his book.
Small,
NJ is very different depending on where you are. Ocean/Monmouth/Atlantic/Burlington, I see no masks. In Mercer, people never really stopped. I haven’t really been other places since the mandate has dropped. Bucks Co., PA, people seemed to go from about 10% masks to maybe 40% since the suggestions changed.
Lib, IMO and this is based off of many studies, these cloth masks are very inneffective at containing spread and give people a false sense of security. With the widespread availability of n95 masks, I think the CDC should have issued guidance or people of a certain weight/comorbidity/age to wear real respirators in certain situations. There was a CDC official the other day on saying that parents should be wearing masks at home to protect their unvaccinated children. The new head of the CDC has always been a mental midget and this was obvious ever since she was on TV crying about impending doom prior to spring despite all data pointing otherwise.
I just picked up a 10 pack of n95s because I’m doing some insulation work in my house. But I’ll keep the other 9 handy for a real emergency moving forward. All fall, I wore a kf94 mask after my n95s ran their course.
If you listen to Gottlieb, he says a number of things. The amount of young people in hospitals seems to indicate a much more widespread transmission than “new cases” seems to be picking up. He seems to believe we are actually infecting a million people a day. The reality likely is, if you are at a super spreader event, you are probably being showered in virus.
Lib,
we have 2 in our kids elementary. But one of them, I swear the father is trans but I’ve always watched the wife literally own him in front of everyone. They’ve chosen to raise both of their children as “non-binary”. I don’t discourage people from making their own personal decisions. But that’s clearly different than forcing it on your own children. Was walking behind them in a rainstorm in June. His non binary girl walks over to the gutter spewing tons of water and sticks her broken foot with a cast in it. Father says nothing. Then, she takes the cast and dips it in a six inch deep mud puddle. Again nothing. She then enters the car filled with mud. There’s clearly something off.
But that being said I’m totally against allowing a person from New Zealand that was born male and could toss me 20 ft to compete against women.
Agreed on all counts. I don’t use a K/N mask unless I am in a risky place. Though I do use the highest quality 3-layer ASTM 3 rated medical masks with tie strings from a non-Asian source. I pay a bit extra for them, but they are much more breathable than the cheap disposables so many people wear. I can wear it all day and hardly notice I have it on. Will probably wear a K/N for my flight out and back from Vegas.
“(CNN) With the recent increase of Covid-19 infections and hospitalizations due to the spread of the highly transmissible Delta variant, health experts and officials expect the surge to worsen as long as large segments of the country remain unvaccinated.
“We will see this big, steep acceleration…”
In other news tax return filings spike in April, ski slopes become more crowded in February, and beach populations surge in August. Incisive reporting there.
Get your hands on Evercore/ISI’s recent Delta Wave research piece. Benchmarks to the UK. Nice graphs. In summary, Delta takes a gentle slope up on a seven day rolling average to nine weeks in and then starts to plummet. They overlay the UK to everyone’s favorite whipping boy today, SW Missouri, curves are the same and SW MO has started to turn.
Going shopping for more discounted opening stocks Lib. Need to play to the buzzer but we know how the game is going to end.
Need to watch Lambda.
Worth noting, Delta doesn’t appear to be driving increased death toll in NJ, looking at the mortality charts, you’d be hard pressed to notice any trend.
Past few days have seen some moderation in cases, at this point a parabolic spike seems less likely.
Ridin in a Stutz Bearcat, those were different times….
Fed’s Kashkari: Delta variant may slow labor market recovery
We need to send everyone more checks and build more bike lanes!
Lib,
Enjoyed your post regarding ETFs for when the market heads south. What sounds will your Canary make to let you know its time to start buying.
Interesting podcast from Jesse Felder interviewing Jim Stack. Jim claims this is the most interest rate sensitive market he has ever seen and taper alone sans rate increase will send markets plummeting.
https://thefelderreport.com/2021/07/28/jim-stack-on-charting-a-course-through-stock-market-rapids/
chi, 10Y at 115 and 10/2 spread beneath 100bps…..
Eddie brought up Philly. I married a Philly girl.
Go figure. She’s prolly the finest woman I
Ever laid eyes on.
Ex,
I’ll send you a photo of the girl I had in my back seat this morning.
Nomad,
If I could answer that question, I would not be wasting my time sharing my wisdom (or stupidity) all day and night here. The truth is, besides with extraordinary luck, you will never nail the top nor the bottom, nor does one need to. If you are half right on both ends of the cycle, you will be no worse off than anyone else. With that said, the canary is not an exact science either. Sometimes birds die regardless of limited CO2. Experience must be your guide and being able to factor all of the constant noise out from the reality is the real challenge, but the ultimate key to being sucessful.
I was at a barbeque at a cousin’s house yesterday (all attendee’s vaccinated). We sort of hit on the topic of noise and how it relates to politics. The GTG was in Hamilton Square in a very blue collar area. The conclusion we came to was that even after all of the horrible and great things that both Obama and Trump did, our lives really weren’t any different from the lives we had under W or Clinton before him. As a matter of fact, we were hard pressed to find a single thing that had changed our lives in any significant manner.
So how do you separate the noise from the reality in the stock market? It’s truly a combination of everything. Though lots of market pundits like to point to particular omens, none of them individually and in concert are a definite sign because there are simply way too many external factors that can influence these signals differently each time. And trust me, there is nothing more important than admitting that you fukced up. You must be willing to quickly lick your wounds if you are wrong and not wait for the club on the river to fill your flush. Even if you have two clubs in your hand and two come out on the flop, if you don’t have the nut or something close, you still gotta fold them, especially if other people are betting into their hands.
Here’s the first hint, in this current nonvolatile market, don’t even bother considering a correction until we are near 10% down. Then analyze the cause of the drop and determine if it is noise or has there been any kind of fundamental change which warranted it. Turn off the Jim Cramer Channel and Bloomberg and just watch the economic reports and determine which matter and which really don’t. Also, put a lot of focus on consumer sentiment and the macro picture. Forget stock prices, sectors, etc. Did anything fundamentally change in the world and how significant is it? Chances are it’s not. If you think it has, scale down your aggressive holdings first. If it is starting to have legs and sentiment clearly worsens, that’s when panic is setting in and that’s the only time to be in the inverse stuff. Remember, the long-term trend of the market is up. It always will be. Don’t be too greedy in the panic stage though. You already hit the pay dirt. You are now at the point where the bottom will be more difficult to pinpoint than the top was. Rest assured though, your aggressive moves, when everyone else is running for the doors will afford you the ability to get back in a little too early with minimal pain (even though the short-term pain could be pretty terrible). Or even more safely, reenter a little late (which is what I usually do). Then enjoy the ride back up.
In the last 30 years, this ride has only happened two times. The third is long overdue, but how long? You’ll know when it’s here because it’s going to be NASTY.
For what it’s worth? I already moved my first 5% to safety. So I am 95% optimistic. I expect to be closer to 50/50 by the end of the year. Especially if the market continues it’s current 30% per year trajectory.
10 year at 1.1%….inflation lol
Get in growth stocks, or get destroyed over the next 10 years.
If you ignore things that are increasing, it looks like nothing is increasing.
If you understand the issues behind the increases, you will understand they are not sustainable long term.
Sure, we have a little inflation that will be lasting, but these big swings are nothing more than short term bottlenecks that will be fixed.
At the end of the day, you have a lot of high growth companies that bring deflationary pressure because their goal is to replace the older companies with a cheaper and more efficent product that needs less and less human labor.
That’s why im in ark funds. They are investing in high growth companies that are deatroying the old guard. Don’t get caught in those value traps over the next 10 years. Pay for the high growth companies, they are the one’s that will be making money as they change economy and world we live in.
Or better yet. Pay a reasonable valuation for high growth stocks and reduce your risk.
If you understand anything, which you do not, you’d realize I wasn’t talking about that. I was talking about assets. I thought you were gone for a week? such an infant
Housing going up? There is not enough supply to feed the enormous millennial buying bloc….hence, how I made this housing call 8 years out. But keep on believing the talking heads that this is only due remote work and covid. LMAO…biggest housing boom since the boomers were buying their first homes (the last big demographic buying bloc) and the talking heads think it’s due to remote work and covid. Too funny.
Housing Stocks Are Booming
In February, I told my readers why buying homebuilder stocks was a near lock to make you money in 2019. I recommended buying homebuilder NVR Inc. (NVR). If you bought NVR back in February, you’re sitting on a 45% gain. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 is up around 10%, as you can see here:
uncaptioned
Readers who got in early have already made a bunch of money. But if you’re not yet riding the trend with us, it’s not too late.
My research suggests this boom has years to run. Today I’ll show you another way to profit from it.
Let Me Tell You About My Talk with Barry…
I picked up the phone and called housing expert Barry Habib.
If you don’t know Barry, he’s the founder and CEO of leading real estate advisor MBS Highway. Barry is an “insider’s insider.” He spends his days talking to the biggest players in the US housing market. In short, he knows what’s really going on in housing.
Here’s what Barry told me…
“Stephen, you’ve been proven right on housing, and I think you’re about to be proven even more right. The most important driver of home prices is supply and demand. And right now, there is a chronic undersupply of homes in America.“
As I said, the 2008 bust turned a lot of folks off from investing in housing. It shattered the confidence of homebuilders, too. Census Bureau data shows an average of 1.5 million homes were built each year since 1959. Yet since 2009, just 900,000 homes have been built per year. In fact, fewer homes were built in the past decade than in any decade since the ‘50s!
We have a serious housing shortage in America today. It would take less than six months to sell every existing home on the market, as you can see here:
uncaptioned
Buyers Will Soon Flood the Housing Market
Barry says a tidal wave of homebuyers is about to flood the market…
“On average, folks buy their first home at age 33. Guess what the median age of Millennials is right now? 34.”
Today’s young adults, as you probably know, are called “Millennials.” They’re the biggest generation in US history—bigger even than Baby Boomers.
There are a lot of rumors out there about Millennials. They’re famous for living in their parents’ basements, delaying marriage, and earning less money than their parents did. But as I explained back in June, Millennials are finally growing up and buying houses. According to the National Association of Realtors, one in three homebuyers today is a Millennial.
Barry emphasized we’ve only seen the tip of the iceberg so far:
“Stephen, the housing market is like a rollercoaster train car. When the first few train cars go over the bump, it’s kind of slow, right? The real momentum kicks in when more and more cars go over the hump.
…In the past year or two, the first wave of young homebuyers came into the market. But every year for the next decade, tens of millions of Millennials will hit home-buying age.”
In other words, a whole generation of homebuyers will soon flood the market. At a time when there is a massive shortage of homes in America!
Remember, the most important driver of home prices is supply and demand. Today, supply is tight. And with record numbers of house hunters entering the market, it all but guarantees the housing boom will continue and likely accelerate.
This Setup Can Only Lead to One Thing
Homebuilders have to build more houses. As I mentioned, builders have been super cautious over the past decade. Who can blame them? Many saw their friends and competitors go out of business when the market crashed.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/stephenmcbride1/2019/10/14/the-biggest-housing-boom-in-history-has-just-begun/
That forbes article was written in 2019 and the author f’ing gets it.
12:41 what happens in Vegas…..
So much for taking a week off. The agony continues!!
Thanks Lib,
Agree when it happens its going to be very ugly. The podcast link has some of what you cited so hats off to you. Sentiment and risk management but the Stack also talks about how the headlines are most euphoric at tops and most gloomy at bottoms, subjective but a decent measurement tool for those with much experience. Interesting that he said twice in his career he has gone 100% cash: 1987 and the tech bust. Today, he says most cash he would have would be 45%-50%. Given all the artificial stuff in the market, it will be interesting to see what it is that actually gets things started. Also interested to see how rapidly or not it unfolds. I think come fall, things will slowly start to look at bit different.
Week off? More like jerk off. Completely demented. Something happened. Wife left, alone in basement is my guess.
For a Monday you think it would be a good day for a long bike ride. The beach clubs in Monmouth were packed, lots of bike riders on Ocean Ave, there were loads of boats out on the river, even the few mountain bike trails in Hartshorn woods had lots of riders, hikers and people walking their dogs. Busted a spoke too, was a good ride..
So as far as vaccine wearing out over time. Senator Lindsay Graham was one of the first to be vaccinated in December when all of Congress was allowed to skip the line, he got the Pfizer vaccine.
Is this the Fed’s fault? How come the FED was pumping money into the system last decade with low rates, yet housing didn’t fly? Why? Oh right, the supply of buyers was a joke, no one wanted real estate.
What is the FED doing that is different today from 6 years ago that’s making housing go boom? Read below, and understand this is the real impact on why housing prices will only go up right now, and it has nothing to do with the FED. DEMAND IS EVERYTHING.
“…In the past year or two, the first wave of young homebuyers came into the market. But every year for the next decade, tens of millions of Millennials will hit home-buying age.”
In other words, a whole generation of homebuyers will soon flood the market. At a time when there is a massive shortage of homes in America!”
“So much for taking a week off. The agony continues!!”
Seriously. What are we, 18 hours into the new week? All caps to boot.
And these guys are attempting to debate economics with the ass clown who conflates inflation with the yield on the ten year, and misquotes the yield as well.
Here dumbass…
https://www.longtermtrends.net/real-interest-rate/
Looking forward to ignoring the inevitable poo flinging and howling that you are correct nonetheless.
Grim, any way to get an ‘ignore’ button on here. I’ll pay for it.
Ill post anytime i smell bs. So don’t post bs about the FED, real estate market, or economy and I won’t show face. If you do, ill be there to troll the sh!t out of you.
It must hurt to see an inner city teacher( teachers you look down on) showing you up on a regular basis. You tap yourselves on the back for calling the bubble in early 2000’s that was easy to spot, but piss on my 8 year call on the year when real estate would go bonkers. Covid almost f’ed it up, but the support was too strong.
The more you piss on my call, the more i feel good. I know you bitter types well, and it the more you piss on it, the better i feel….
Bitter? Pumps really? Take some time off already, there are many people here to learn from, soak up the free advise and put the past away already…
“conflates inflation with the yield on the ten year,”
I caught that too.
Okay…I’ll leave you alone again. Respect juice enough.
My bad, he’s marginally smarter than I thought….
https://scroll.in/video/833589/watch-a-chimpanzee-hurls-poop-at-zoo-visitors-and-experts-say-it-s-a-sign-of-intelligence
He really needs to get help, he is becoming completely unhinged . This past year has been his worst!
Let’s go back Here…, https://youtu.be/EkznlP29TjQ
NY Rent Stabilization Association’s motion to SCOTUS challenging aspects of the NY State eviction moratorium . . .
“there is no governmental or public interest in continuing to enforce an unconstitutional law premised on a public health emergency that the State itself has now announced is over.”
Justice Sotomayor ordered NY to respond by Aug. 4.
https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/21/21A8/184997/20210727101212346_Chrysafis%20v.%20Marks%20Supreme%20Court%20Application.pdf
^the brief I posted above has a good quote from a recent Supreme Court case (Cedar Point Nursery) in which the Court stated:
“protection of property rights is necessary to preserve freedom and empowers persons to shape and to plan their own destiny in a world where governments are always eager to do so for them.”
Denver goes out on a limb with mandates – will be interesting to see how this plays out:
https://www.denverpost.com/2021/08/02/denver-vaccines-mandate-city-covid/
Denver appears to be the first city in the U.S. to not only require COVID-19 vaccines for its employees, but also extend the mandate to private businesses and organizations.
The first, according to Megan Corey of the National League of Cities, was announced Monday by Denver Mayor Michael Hancock. His health order covers more than 10,000 people who work for the city and county, as well as first responders and people who work in health care, correctional facilities and public and private schools.
…
The order applies to teachers and school staff within Denver Public Schools, private schools, post-secondary schools and higher education, City Attorney Kristin Bronson said.
7th circuit upholds Indiana University vax mandates
Trump’s great economy?
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-08-02/trump-s-gdp-growth-was-the-worst-since-the-great-depression
History won’t be kind.
This is why we need to get the vaccine in every primary care office in the country. Shift to doctors providing the vaccine, not vaccine clinics.
The Anti-vaccine Con Job Is Becoming Untenable
Something very strange has been happening in Missouri: A hospital in the state, Ozarks Healthcare, had to create a “private setting” for patients afraid of being seen getting vaccinated against COVID-19. In a video produced by the hospital, the physician Priscilla Frase says, “Several people come in to get vaccinated who have tried to sort of disguise their appearance and even went so far as to say, ‘Please, please, please don’t let anybody know that I got this vaccine.’” Although they want to protect themselves from the coronavirus and its variants, these patients are desperate to ensure that their vaccine-skeptical friends and family never find out what they have done.
You in a hung over fog?
“Trump’s great economy? History won’t be kind.”
Please don’t join the uninformed crowd of measuring Presidential performance based on random start/end dates without regard to the exogenous factors that overwhelmingly affect performance. On those measures some of the worst can be best, and vice versa.
“This is why we need to get the vaccine in every primary care office in the country. Shift to doctors providing the vaccine, not vaccine clinics. A hospital in the state, Ozarks Healthcare, had to create a “private setting” for patients afraid of being seen getting vaccinated against COVID-19.”
Let’s think about the above, ideally before typing it…
Fringe highly editorialized hit piece or investigative journalism addressing a substantive issue?
Of all the issues around COVID and vaccinations, THIS is the burning issue? The answer to the question, prioritized above most others, to getting the vaccine into the arms of the unvaccinated?
There is literally not a single number in the ‘analysis’. Not one. Very easy to understand why…she can’t demonstrate there is material problem whose reversal would produce a substantive result.
Instead, the entire ‘thesis’ revolves around the revolutionary idea (sarcasm intended) that “nobody strives for the good opinion of everyone; most people primarily seek the approval of people in their own reference groups…their neighborhoods, churches, workplaces, and friendship networks”.
So you don’t care about what David Duke opines and I wouldn’t take a dinner party invite from Steven Colbert if extended. Brilliant.
That is worthy of a professorship at Dartmouth?
C’mon, you’re better than this….
All this focus on Missouri from the MSM. There are way more unvaccinated New Yorkers jammed into a crowded city.
They only need to look out their window to see 3 million + unvaccinated adults walking around the streets of NYC. Their neighbors, their doormen, the people on the subway, the person that makes their fancy meals etc. Where are those stories?
Fully vaccinated rate in the Bronx is only 46%. Brooklyn is not much better at 48%.
Yeah, demographic political hit pieces with no intention of identifying the issue, let alone resolving it.
It sells advertising to the target left audience and throws red meat to the politically narrow minded base.
The last time these liberals even noticed MO was probably when Truman was sworn in and most of them couldn’t find it on a map, assuming they actually wanted to.
Actually, I take that back…it was the same last summer when MSM was aflame with headlines that we were all going to die because a bunch of kids in Missouri tied their boats together in the middle of a lake….meanwhile as I noted yesterday the death rates in those counties is lower than in the most wealthy and esteemed counties of the locked down Peoples Republic of NJ.
Really sucks when pesky little facts get in the way of the shrill liberal narrative.
Please don’t join the uninformed crowd of measuring Presidential performance based on random start/end dates without regard to the exogenous factors that overwhelmingly affect performance. On those measures some of the worst can be best, and vice versa.
Irrelevant, the winners will pick the metrics and timeframes to support their thesis, the losers will be defined by the metrics and timeframes that show them in the worst light. The current party will always take credit, and the opposing party will always credit the predecessor and/or downplay the significance of the results. So what’s new here? Should we send a memo to the current and past presidents? Maybe the heads of the political parties?
One position that I’ve had here, from the beginning, is that media and public sentiment, even if wildly inaccurate, are usually more material in driving outcomes and behaviors than the actual reality of the situation is, whether it be real estate, or otherwise. This, is no different.
Take a step back, look at the broad trend, Trump’s political legacy will be painted worse than Carter, whether deserved or not (in both cases).
Of all the issues around COVID and vaccinations, THIS is the burning issue? The answer to the question, prioritized above most others, to getting the vaccine into the arms of the unvaccinated?
THE burning issue? No, but it’s an issue nonetheless. I have more faith that someone’s primary care provider, especially if a long-term relationship, can likely talk more sense in someone that’s vax hesitant in a private setting, than the CDC or other talking heads can, in a public setting. These conversations will likely take place outside of someone specifically seeking the vaccine, but will likely result in someone being vaccinated. And there is absolutely something to be said for “saving face” in this situation, especially for the wide swath of the population that’s been outspoken within their own communities. I personally know plenty of folks who have dug their heels in on this, and I personally know plenty of them in the SE US.
Denver appears to be the first city in the U.S. to not only require COVID-19 vaccines for its employees, but also extend the mandate to private businesses and organizations.
China’s plan is working like a charm. Conditioning doesn’t take as much time as you think. In our children’s lifetime, they’ll have us all in neutral-colored clothing and reciting the morning pledge before we report to our worker stations. Our sovereignty is dissolving even faster than I thought possible. Transformation happens quickly.
Except that immunization has been required for decades, and the United States was a pioneer in requiring immunizations for school attendance. In fact, the United States was the first country in the world to pass a federal quarantine law in the 1700s. Mandatory vaccination was upheld in the US Supreme court over 100 years ago, far predating China’s communist government (1905 vs 1921).
Public Health is very much an American phenomenon, and I suspect broadly, Americans are far more protected by immunization than Chinese citizens are.
“Conditioning doesn’t take as much time as you think. In our children’s lifetime, they’ll have us all in neutral-colored clothing and reciting the morning pledge”
Is that before or after the morning prayer your party was so hellbent on passing?
As long as the work day opens with a prayer, we sing the National Anthem and have military fly overs on special occasions… I’m okay with it.
“Conditioning doesn’t take as much time as you think. In our children’s lifetime, they’ll have us all in neutral-colored clothing and reciting the morning pledge”
So pretty much, like every Parochial school in the country?
My theory on the Pronvincetown mass breakthrough cases is that whoever was in charge at a nearby site of storing the vaccine at proper temps just didn’t give a crap and people were injected with a bunch of spoiled vaccine. We would be seeing this happen everywhere or it would have further spread out from NE among the unvaccinated en masse.
Some friends up in Cape Cod this past weekend were telling me that you had to show vax cards to get into restaurants and bars.
So pretty much, like every Parochial school in the country?
Guidance is far different than compliance.
History will have a field day with Trump. He is/was truly awful.
My personal favorite his triumphant return to the White House
After his bout with Covid and he peels away the mask and basks
In his limelight of beating the disease he downplayed for months
Then caught and received that expensive experimental treatment.
No disagreement that Trump will be painted in a bad light. Not because of the GDP assertion though.
To frame any President’s success/failure around economic outcomes during his term is to totally ignore the fact that our system of government was established specifically to LIMIT the power of the Executive branch. And to be oblivious that in practice those limited powers are more fully diluted by the powers and long term effects of decisions outside of his purview and term, eg. Congress, world events, and the Fed.
You want to assert instead that MSM is going to paint things the way they want, however oblivious to facts and historical structures? LOL, no argument here.
Equally, no disagreement that it would be preferable overall to have vaccines at PCP. More convenience in any service is better. My point is different and addresses the link provided…if the endpoint is getting more people vaccinated as quickly as possible ‘saving face’ is extremely far down the list. Or, if one is purporting it is a primary factor, prove it.
Does anyone seriously believe that a primary cause of the vaccination gap is because of public shaming? That if vaccines could only be given in the dark and solo as opposed to how they are currently administered there we would close the gap?
“Guidance is far different than compliance.”
You keep using those words. I don’t think you know what they mean.
By the way, Trump is still playing politics, because it’s the only way he keeps a hold on his $100m campaign contribution war chest.
You think that guy is going to let that much money slip through his hands? I suspect he’ll play the politics game until he’s charged off every dollar of that money with questionable “campaign” expenses. I suspect he wakes up every morning concocting schemes to launder that money.
Guidance is far different than compliance.
Yes, my K-12 Catholic school experience was guidance. Sister Mary Rose put her arm around me if I showed up in a t-shirt and did not stand for pledge or say the Our Father..pure delusion, Ed. Cmon.
If you go back to the year prior to Covid, the left consistently on TV and social media begged for an economic downturn because they knew he was on trajectory for a guaranteed second term.
You keep using those words. I don’t think you know what they mean.
I’m waiting…
Yes, my K-12 Catholic school experience was guidance. Sister Mary Rose put her arm around me if I showed up in a t-shirt and did not stand for pledge or say the Our Father..pure delusion, Ed. Cmon.
And today we have students with weapons and teachers being pummeled in the classroom. Progress!!
Deblasio drops big vax mandates for NYC.
Murphy looking pretty weak here. But really, he has an election to worry about now.
He’s going to walk back his prison worker mandates, once the Sheriff’s union flips out. You’ll see. He’ll claim it’s a win, except it will only apply to the 7 non-officer employees.
He’ll also NEVER MANDATE teacher vaccines, he’d lose the election over that.
Unions aren’t going to accept mandates without big $$ changes to contracts. You want it? F*CK YOU, pay me.
“students with weapons”
Isn’t that an NRA directive?
After I binge-watched all 5 seasons of “The Wire” this summer the operations of local and state politics made much more sense.
Sometimes I think the federales in Mexico are less corrupt than our cops. All you have to say to them is the codewords “Vamos a la playa,” and they let you go on your way without an issue.
“And today we have students with weapons and teachers being pummeled in the classroom. Progress!!”
But your sides wants more weapons in school. Also, you think teachers/Jesuit brothers and students did not get into fights? I saw at least 6 during my high school years and I went to “pristine” Christian brothers school. I won’t even mention the Jesuits who stayed over at kids houses then left brotherhood shortly after. We also had one arrested ten years ago who was principal at one point and of course, shuffled to different schools when accusation came. Your faulty logic has always been that “classical” America never had these issues.
Question to the board. I’m got a comment from a family member.
What do you find about Dr. Robert Malone and Dr Erin Stair? They bring to light the occurence of free spike protein which was not supposed to happen. Dr Mercola stirs the pot yet he surrounds himself with reputable people
grim says:
August 3, 2021 at 7:11 am
This is why we need to get the vaccine in every primary care office in the country. Shift to doctors providing the vaccine, not vaccine clinics.
The Anti-vaccine Con Job Is Becoming Untenable
Something very strange has been happening in Missouri: A hospital in the state, Ozarks Healthcare, had to create a “private setting” for patients afraid of being seen getting vaccinated against COVID-19. In a video produced by the hospital, the physician Priscilla Frase says, “Several people come in to get vaccinated who have tried to sort of disguise their appearance and even went so far as to say, ‘Please, please, please don’t let anybody know that I got this vaccine.’” Although they want to protect themselves from the coronavirus and its variants, these patients are desperate to ensure that their vaccine-skeptical friends and family never find out what they have done.
In Texas the unvaccinated areas are rural white conservatives and black and Hispanic in the cities. Also the lower the zip code’s median income the lower the vaccination rate
https://www.texastribune.org/2021/08/03/unvaccinated-texas-demographics/
Chi,
Malone is an honest scientist asking legitimate questions. Whenever a scientific talk is given, there is a question session. Usually, the biggest smartest blowhards in the room would try to come up with a way to discredit it or tear it apart. But it’s part of the process and an important one. Society is moving towards a dangerous path of you can’t even question something…moreover, even if you are right, if you are right too early, they crucify you for it.
Gottlieb was on saying that they are investigating now how to better space out the vaccine and see what regiments would work best. He said the initial runout was designed to get the maximum immune response in the shortest time. I’ve been steadfast that I believe that all of these side effects we are seeing can easily be minimized or eliminated through more frequent smaller doses over longer time periods. It’s now logistically possible to accomplish that.
What is customary to tip movers these days? About 2 hours of work each side of move.
Your faulty logic has always been that “classical” America never had these issues.
I never said it did. I never said growing up was pristine and never said the past was squeaky clean. On the other hand, let’s go the way of Cuba, Venezuela or “insert” another flavor you find palatable. The enemy within… working like a charm as evidenced by the sad pessimism this forum has become.
grim says:
August 3, 2021 at 9:00 am
“…media and public sentiment, even if wildly inaccurate, are usually more material in driving outcomes and behaviors…”
The fact that you think that media and public sentiment are the same as it pertains to T just reinforces how out of touch you are with the huge swaths of this country that are not part of the largely coastal ‘blue bubbles’. While media sentiment is obviously formed by ultra liberal and useless Dem apologist hacks, public sentiment outside the blue bubbles is very supportive of T and largely considers modern-day Dems as weak, lazy, soc1al1st-leaning radicals. Seems like the inability to travel over the past year has made you much more insular and accepting of Dem narratives .
The concerns about pushing the vaccines are now misguided, It is not effective against the latest variants and the situation continues to deteriorate. They are lying to us, there is no way the vaccine is still effective even accounting for antibodies waning over time if vaccinated individuals are shedding a similar quantity of virus to the unvaccinated. This does not pass the smell test, which is it, do the vaccines still work? How much so, maybe the Israeli’s 39% efficacy number is correct, If so how much longer until they are totally ineffective? Now that we are hearing about significant percentages of hospitalizations and deaths being among the vaccinated. I see an effort to obscure the data rather than accurately report what is happening.
BRT, interesting theory but I’m not buying it, virus mutations and a more resistant variant. There is a reason the government stopped reporting on the breakthrough cases. We are at the stage where reinfection is possible, lots of anecdotal reports of breakthrough infections where people are getting moderately ill, one needs to account for the fact that the hospitalization rate for covid-19 is quite small less than 7% and less than a 2% death rate and that is based on overall testing which likely under counts the infected. If I had to take an educated guess COVID has a death rate between .5-1% and a hospitalization rate of 3-4%. Given that I think there is reason be concerned about the vaccination, which really sucks because it really was looking like we were done with this. As for the masks it’s N95 or nothing really, perhaps a fabric mask can negligibly reduce transmissions but it seems like wishful thinking and virtue signaling. At this point they should be advising n95 masks for risky situations as they DO work, not 100% but there is a multi-factor reduction in the likelihood you contract the illness.
The same huge swaths of the country that showed up to massive rallies that fooled three individuals here into thinking Trump winning was a sure bet?
I would love to know what all of these people, who have so much free time on their hands, do for a living? My guess is that the vast majority of them are on social programs such as disability.
“Now that we are hearing about significant percentages of hospitalizations and deaths being among the vaccinated”
That’s your politics speaking right there again. First, this is untrue. Second, if you look at the NJ deaths, they all had severe underlying conditions. I really do think you are hoping for the answer to justify the right’s position in all this.
Like the air conditioning excuse (first theorized by the moron governor in Florida) as to why all of the red states are deep into a third wave while the blue states are barely registering on the Delta map I posted the other day.
Science is not fitting the question to match the answer. Just because the government stopped reporting breakthrough cases does not mean it’s because there was an increasing amount. It could also be that the numbers of total cases have become so high in most red states that they couldn’t keep count. Heck in NJ, they don’t even have your name matched up to your vaccination status. I could easily walk into the Essex County College site and get another shot every day.
Go look up the Jersey breakthroughs. It’s a surprise most of the victims were alive in the first place.
The fact that you think that media and public sentiment are the same as it pertains to T just reinforces how out of touch you are with the huge swaths of this country that are not part of the largely coastal ‘blue bubbles’.
Keep in mind, at least the past decade, I’ve spent a considerable amount of time in the non-metropolitan south and southeastern US, as the core of American outsourcing work is centered in this region. I’ve worked with hundreds of people, if not thousands, across the following states: Nebraska, Colorado, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas, Missouri, Arkansas, Mississippi, Kentucky, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, and Florida. When I say non-metro, I mean non-metro. Collectively, I’ve spent months in these areas over the past decade. I’m talking about creating jobs in these areas, having to hire and train people, build new sites, expand existing sites, even close sites and fire hundreds of people. On the ground, working with locals, eating dinner at their houses, meeting family. I’m not talking about passing through on the interstate on the way to Disney World.
How about you?
“My theory on the Pronvincetown mass breakthrough cases is that whoever was in charge at a nearby site of storing the vaccine at proper temps just didn’t give a crap and people were injected with a bunch of spoiled vaccine. We would be seeing this happen everywhere or it would have further spread out from NE among the unvaccinated en masse.”
Uhhmmm, you been to P’town during a celebration?
Let’s just say social distancing among strangers is at a minimum.
lib, I’m saying deaths and hospitalizations are relatively rare especially below 40 years old. Don’t get me wrong any prior immune system exposure is beneficial, but with prior variants it was like impenetrable armor and that is no longer the case.
What we are witnessing is the mishandling of a public heath emergency, data is being mismanaged and we are not making smart public health decisions. What we know now is that they should be honest about adverse reaction data, they should examine the spacing of the vaccinations and the impacts of prior infection on adverse reactions and we should be treating COVID when a person first gets ill. We can use indomethacin, an NSAID that costs something like $4 for a weeks treatment and has shown to slow coronviriuses replication, we have some study data from India indicating a reduction in symptom severity and duration vs. placebo and if it is not contraindicated it is incredibly safe and would also ease the body ache and headache COVID frequently causes.
Requesting to look at data and make sane public health policy is not political or partisan. I’d argue the current handling is already so politicized we cannot get the truth.
Cuomo is done
Rt down to 1.38 today, is that it for the delta peak?
Sure looks that way on Cuomo.
grim says:
August 3, 2021 at 11:48 am
“…at least the past decade, I’ve spent a considerable amount of time in the non-metropolitan south…”
I’m aware of that. But how much time in the past 16 months — virtually zero, right? That’s why I noted that you seem to have become much more insular (blue?) in that time specifically. Regardless, if you’re sticking to your assertion that media opinion of T and public opinion of T (outside the blue bubbles) are the same, then we’ll simply have to agree to disagree.
“Requesting to look at data and make sane public health policy is not political or partisan. I’d argue the current handling is already so politicized we cannot get the truth.”
True that.
Major US research universities requiring vaccination of all students regardless of prior infection status and despite literature and indications of adverse outcomes. It would take zero time to put together a study to measure accurately since you don’t need a placebo group as you have all the recent data for authorization as baseline. But why bother, easier to start with the political conclusion and reverse engineer into your position. Despicable.
At least the Administration has stopped stating the blatant lie “we are just following the science”.
Cuomo is pathetic….having a news conference now…..flashing photos of him kissing dozens of people. “I just try to connect with people and show my friendship.”
Into the “I have learned from this” mode, having dropped the belligerence given the findings.
Calling for new enhanced sexual harassment policy “even though we currently have one”. LOL.
Cuomo is not going to resign if there might be criminal charges, just like Spitzer he needs to cut a deal first to leave office quietly no charges etc.
Like the air conditioning excuse (first theorized by the moron governor in Florida) as to why all of the red states are deep into a third wave while the blue states are barely registering on the Delta map I posted the other day.
Texas dropped their cases steadily from Feb to May and remained at baseline for nearly two months prior to the most recent spike. Same for Florida. What is your plausible explanation for this?
CNN tossing him under the bus…resign, charges, or not…he’s toast
“Science is not fitting the question to match the answer.”
So CNN also reports deBlasio’s new restrictions go into effect on Sept 13.
September 13? WTF.
What’s up Chief? Are we in the middle of another “this is a dangerous new wave” and these mitigants are vital to prevention or not?
Or do you have such an accurate crystal ball that you can divine at the inception of this ramp up that the precise point on the curve for maximum impact is five weeks out?
Or maybe Friar Occam surfaced, given that Sept 13 comfortably after workers are overwhelmingly expected back in the City muting any municipal restrictions and ensuing political fallout?
Just following the science….the Left would never fit the response to the politics…ever.
BRT says:
August 3, 2021 at 1:44 pm
“Texas dropped their cases steadily from Feb to May and remained at baseline for nearly two months prior to the most recent spike. Same for Florida. What is your plausible explanation for this?”
Hundreds of thousands of un-vaxxed, un-tested and possibly covid-positive illegal immigrants having crossed the border and largely settled in southern/red states. One of a hundred reasons why Joe’s open border policy has been a disaster.
Nope, never been to Provincetown, and it’s just a theory.
Left,
by Sept 13th, this thing will have run it’s course if guys taking the position like Gottlieb that this thing is infecting 1 million a day and we aren’t even picking up 9 out of 10 cases due to people not getting tested. So he gets to claim he was going to protect everyone with these policies, but then ends up not having to do it.
70% of illegal immigrants in ICE custody voluntarily accept vaccination. That’s far better than Texas.
re: Provincetown.
Tourists from all over. Many gay, so I gather the virus is not discriminating either.
https://slate.com/human-interest/2021/08/provincetown-delta-variant-cluster-diary.html
Lollapalooza in Chicago, 100,000 attended, 90% say they were vaccinated. Seems not to be the case. Fake cards all over.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/lollapalooza-crowd-fake-covid-vaccine-b1895751.html
52% of Chicago is fully vaccinated, and only 35.5% of Black Chicagoans are fully vaccinated..
Yeah they are catching what 200,000 at the border every month now? That means what another 300,000 slip through…
BRT: Provincetown has some fantastic natural beauty!! Great spot for whale watching! We were there years ago when kids were young. If you have young kids best get out of there before sundown; it gets interesting. Male Chers walking around all over town.
“So he gets to claim he was going to protect everyone with these policies, but then ends up not having to do it.”
Yup. All hat, no cattle.
“Tourists from all over. Many gay, so I gather the virus is not discriminating either.”
Went up there unknowingly one Fourth….resembled the Village Halloween parade of years gone by, was wild lol….Deriving the direction of Delta transmission from the 4th in Provincetown would be like drawing conclusions on the direction of STDs from the old Village parade.
Lib, took a little spanking today….tightened up a couple of the airline trades to go into higher upside leveraged positions by realizing some smaller losses now…holding some MGM and VIAC into earnings on Thurs, will write some premium against those in the direction of the stock movement into close tomorrow to leverage/reduce basis….really being disciplined on some of these REITs, killing me not to hop into a buy-write on something like SKT but I’ll wait until they clear earnings tonight…one bright spot keeping be solid today was grabbing a busted healthcare SPAC as it fell out of bed hard, solid 50% up in two days on shares, I nearly never do that so a plus.
LMK any REIT ideas….SPG did well today
Re Cuomo,
Never forget:
https://youtu.be/2Kydr2a7Uy4
Headed to P town later in August on our New England College tour and one day on the cape vacation. Though it’s a family trip, I’ll be sure to look for the Adam’s apples.
BRT/JCer, I wholeheartedly agree that the left are playing the same games with the data that the right is. Both sides are not allowed to give the other any inkling of credit. I’m not stupid. As to why the red states are red on the map? My best guess and I won’t claim it to be anything more than that is that it is a combination of all of the issues mentioned, notwithstanding leadership encouraging people NOT to wear masks. It’s all a math game when it comes to infectious diseases. I see people wearing masks in cars in NJ when driving solo. I also see people donning masks outdoors where the exposure time they might experience from a walker by is probably not long enough for their need. At the same time, I wouldn’t doubt if 75% of the concert attendees were vaccinated and of those that weren’t I would bet probably half of them wore masks, helping to stop the spread.
See, where I can’t stand the politics played here is with the black and white answers. The answer is usually somewhere in the gray. But the gray is never addressed since it doesn’t fit either narrative.
leftwing,
My combination of HZO, VEEV, BLD and MDC keep on running. BLD reported earnings and are up 8% today. My BLD is now up 67% since I made the call here. HZO is already up 12%, VEEV looks great too. Best of all, none of these four are even close to fair value based on historic P/Es. Forget the REITs, just buy Amazon in the coming days. I don’t do REITs since real estate (my two homes) are already a very large part of my portfolio. Too much, to be honest. I didn’t intend it to be, but, praise Covid.
Look at these annualized performances.
Alphabet Inc (GOOG) 01/01/2021 111.9%
Facebook Inc (FB) 01/01/2021 54.1%
Molina Healthcare (MOH) 01/01/2021 51.0%
Marvell Technology Group Ltd (MRVL) 01/22/2021 40.1%
HEICO Corp (HEI) 01/01/2021 37.1%
Sherwin-Williams Company (SHW) 01/01/2021 35.6%
Smuckers J M Co (SJM) 01/01/2021 27.4%
Federal Signal Corp (FSS) 01/01/2021 27.0%
Nice work Lib. AMZN definitely on radar, likely watch to see if she wants to come close to 2880 levels again.
No One, OMG thank you. How did I miss that…lol, hilarious.
CNBC reporting Biden called for Cuomo to step down. I knew the guy and his brother were first class assholes but wow are the long knives coming out for retribution.
I can only imagine the dog and pony show checking for vax cards at Lollapalooza. I remember back in 2002/2003/2004, I went to every Nets game. They were required to do bomb checks/pat downs. It got to the point where security just tapped your hip and said “good to go”. Security doesn’t care.
Gotta say, recuritinghell on reddit has become my second favorite rant spot after this place. If looking for a job, it provides the complete farce experience that is dealing with recruiters and LkedIn. This was great. Love the comments.
https://www.reddit.com/r/recruitinghell/comments/ox6zqx/jesus_christ/
See, where I can’t stand the politics played here is with the black and white answers. The answer is usually somewhere in the gray. But the gray is never addressed since it doesn’t fit either narrative.
Libturd,
I couldn’t agree more. The prime recent example is your favorite one: masks. Masks help if they are surgical grade and worn property. Those are your words, and again I agree wholeheartedly… but no ‘leader’ on either side finishes the sentence. And a number of scientists are either nervous to speak publicly about the distinction or were just masquerading as scientists in the first place.
New York Chic:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9856273/Anderson-Cooper-puts-late-mother-Gloria-Vanderbilts-two-bedroom-Manhattan-apartment-market.html
All the data we have proves there is almost no correlation with actual mandates/policies on a state level with cases. Feb/May proved this. For all the chants of Deathsantis and what not, Florida and Texas are still trying to catch up to the death rate we achieved by fall last year. We in NJ still sit nearly double them and still hold the place for 3rd worst death rate in the world behind Hungary and Peru despite our early access to the vaccine.
First, NJ’s death rate included the earlier nursing home deaths and the initial, throw everyone on a respirator strategy that also lead to an outsized number of deaths. There is also the population density which probably did not help. Weather probably plays a role too. As probably do widespread mask usage. No single issue is an end all be able. But for one day Fauci said not to wear masks. Hang him!
The problem with this time based analysis is it’s predicated on the entire country having equal exposure and probability of infection, which we know wasn’t how the pandemic rolled through the population.
So a place who claimed success, despite not having mask mandates and social distancing, but didn’t have widespread covid transmission at the time, isn’t much of a success. It was dumb luck. Lots of rural communities were likely spared from the initial waves, simply because there wasn’t the same level of influx/outflux of population, and potential for spread.
As covid rolled through in waves, I suspect some of that was driven by exposure into new communities, I think this is especially so of Delta. Anthropomorphize the virus as being opportunistic. Increased transmissibility, I feel, means greater potential for segregated communities to be impacted, and when it finds them, it burns through at a faster pace.
If Delta was the first wave virus, the death toll would have been stratospheric I fear.
Just googled Las Vegas Covid cases and this headline comes up first.
https://www.fox5vegas.com/coronavirus/fox5-experts-despite-breakthroughs-vaccinated-avoiding-hospitalization-las-vegas-trial-lead-says/article_d353db20-f24d-11eb-ae2f-078f4cc36932.html
Point being, there’s no way to extrapolate out of that data that any of your blue states, lockdowns, school closures, restrictions, mask mandates as a model of success.
“Hospitals report that 95%+/- of all patients hospitalized are unvaccinated (in Nevada). Hence, robust vaccination campaigns remain the best mitigation strategy,” NHA noted in its most recent report.
Moreover, this entire exercise is silly. In Feb through May, southern states get to thumb their nose at us and in July and August, we get to thumb our nose at them. Seasonality is still the main indicator of a wave approaching.
BRT,
Who was the last person to call for a lockdown. I would also argue that no lockdowns ever occurred anywhere. Were people requested to stay in their homes? Yes. Did they, some did. A lot did not. Once again gray, not black and white. As for mask mandates, they were hardly followed in red states, maybe 50% followed at their peak in blue states.
I know it’s anecdotal, but nearly all of the people I know personally who got Covid were the ones I would have expected to based on their choice not to follow guidelines. Nothing is 100% foolproof. But you are much better off wearing a crappy mask than no mask. And you are much better off wearing a surgical mask than a crappy mask. Distancing and handwashing certainly helps too.
Yes, seasonality certainly might be. But you can’t say masks and lockdowns don’t work when people didn’t participate in them.
being that we are now entering wave 3, I can most certainly say that. Moreover, the statistical evidence has been published scientifically showing that people who mask still get infected.
All people? Some people? A few people? Keep sanding off the edges of that square peg and eventually it will fit the round hole.
I’m gonna listen to these guys.
https://www.cell.com/med/pdf/S2666-6340(20)30072-6.pdf
As with most infectious agents the density and mobility of the population are determinant factors along with co-morbidities. For this virus in particular, age.
If your population cohort fits that bill, it will likely be overwhelmingly affected.
Other measures such as masking, lockdowns, school and business closures would be difficult to isolate to analyze. Too much noise.
I sincerely hope we don’t need to rely on a report to inform that most hospitalizations are of the unvaccinated…given the effectiveness of the vaccines what would one expect? Isn’t that on the order of positing that most occupants in the maternity ward are females under 50?
According to the CDC in October, 70% of people infected reported wearing a mask indoors everywhere they weent.
In my mind, social distancing is probably the #1 most important thing to do. Beats everything else. Masks and spend as little time indoors with others are right behind.
Is this variation sufficient as an example?
Libturd says:
August 3, 2021 at 10:03 pm
All people? Some people? A few people? Keep sanding off the edges of that square peg and eventually it will fit the round hole
https://nypost.com/2021/08/03/nyc-cemetery-workers-damage-coffin-shoved-it-into-grave-lawsuit/
I thought as more and more data came in, it was looking like co-morbidity(ies) had the highest correlation to serious illness and death. Moreno than age. Now of course, the older one is the higher likelihood they are dealing with at least common problem associated with old age. But if one was very healthy and 75 years old, their odds of survival were closer to a 25yo than a 75yo with co-morbidities.
leftwing says:
August 3, 2021 at 11:04 pm
As with most infectious agents the density and mobility of the population are determinant factors along with co-morbidities. For this virus in particular, age.
I thought diabetes was the major comorbidity. I read somewhere diabetics are 10% of the US population but we’re 40% of US covid deaths.
Here’s a story on diabetes and COVID
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/covid-19-proving-deadly-for-diabetics-who-make-up-40-of-fatalities/ar-AAMk7sz
“According to the CDC in October, 70% of people infected reported wearing a mask indoors everywhere they weent”
Sure they did. And poll drivers on the NJ Turnpike and ask them if they speed and probably 90% will say no. Yet there is not a car on that highway driving below 55 in a 55.
Lib, the pdf you shared is very hokey, the vast majority of fabric masks do little if anything in even the simulated tests that show a reduction of droplets, best case scenario it SLIGHTLY reduces transmission if an infected person is wearing it correctly. With the same academic rigor a document could be produced claiming Hydroxycholorquine as a cure for COVID. They did an actual study in europe and found masking was not statistically significant in preventing COVID.
I know plenty of ardent maskers who were infected and were only with other masked individuals. While people like my brother in law who was on the Trump train who didn’t mask and were never infected, so anything observational is immediately questionable. I actually believe the statistic about the 70% especially in areas that are not on the Trump train, yeah in Fl or Tn maybe no one is wearing the mask but in NYC or NNJ everyone was masked in public places until recently.
The observations mean nothing as there is no statistical rigor and they cause and effect was observed at different times, think logically a whole bunch of orders are put in place post outbreak PLUS people are scared enough to modify behavior, it’s hard tyo isolate the reduction in new cases was a result of a mask mandate.
The reductions in virus from a nebulizer only show about a 40% reduction with a properly worn surgical mask and less with cloth, all bets are off with improperly worn, and the mechanics of the nebulizer likely don’t accurately represent what happens when a living breathing person is wearing a mask. Anyone in proximity to a masked person who is infected still stands an excellent chance of getting infected. With N95 it is different, when worn properly very little viral material can get through.