From Fortune:
Zillow: Our 2022 housing forecast is way off—home prices now set to spike 16%
Homebuyers got crushed last year as home prices soared at their highest clip on record. Housing economists saw that price growth—which peaked at a year-over-year rate of 20% last year—as simply unsustainable. Their economic models agreed: Among the seven forecast models reviewed by Fortune heading into 2022, every single one predicted home price growth would slow significantly this year.
But over the past few weeks, that consensus is no longer so unified. Now, more industry insiders are throwing out their previous forecasts and replacing them with more bullish short-term outlooks. Indeed, some experts say the 2022 spring housing market might go down as one of the most competitive on record.
Look no further than Zillow. Back in December, the home listing site predicted that U.S. home values would climb 11% this year. Economists at Zillow now say that forecast is too conservative. Their latest forecast finds home prices are set to spike 16.4% between December 2021 and December 2022. If it comes to fruition, it would mark another brutal year for home shoppers.
Why is Zillow raising its 2022 home price growth forecast? A lot of it boils down to housing inventory. During the pandemic, inventory has plunged to a four-decade low as more buyers rushed into the market. That trend was predicted to reverse late last year as forbearance protection programs lapsed and mortgage rates rose. But not only has that not happened, the inventory situation has gotten worse. In January, there were just over 923,000 U.S. homes listed for sale on Zillow. That’s down 40.5% from the pre-pandemic level in January 2020, and down 19.5% from January 2021.
first
let the bidding wars commence ……
I almost posted yesterday to comment that pumps had a stupefying 8 distinct posts in a row. Then I realized “why break the streak?” So we received a 9th. Has got to be a record.
For the “record”, I did not read any of them.
On the heels of him launching a national PAC “Stronger Fairer Forward” for a possible presidential bid chaired by his wife.
” In a dramatic shift, New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy will announce Monday a timeline to end the state’s school mask mandate, with a new policy to take effect in the second week of March, his office told CNN.”
Now that prices will be rising another 16 percent I am sure companies will be giving big enough raises to compensate for the increase. The longer this goes on, the uglier the fallout will be.
Just to be clear here, it’s all politics from here on in for Gov Phil. We can expect a spattering of NJ laws and rules and proclamations that have national significance.
Tweet….
“We’re guided by science. Not politics. We’re guided by data. Not protests. We’re guided by public health. Not emotion.” “That’s how we meet this moment. That’s how we save lives.”
Current guidance from the CDC is however masks in schools.
“CDC recommends universal indoor masking by all* students (ages 2 years and older), staff, teachers, and visitors to K-12 schools, regardless of vaccination status.”
re: Zillow
Yes because their faulty algorithms are fixed? Remember it was not long a go they dropped the ball with their massive iBuyer program “Zillow Offers” an Algorithmic House buying failed miserably. Don’t they have a 1/2 billion in homes to sell at a loss?
yes, and now that there is an election coming up, the CDC will quickly pivot to end mask mandates. The same media pundits who were stringent supporters of masks everywhere, sometimes even inside your own household, all of the sudden are “shifting” their opinions. They’ve been given their orders, now they have to sell it to their side.
Home prices are ridiculous in this state. Feel bad for anyone who actually has to buy one right now. Every open house is beyond crowded and I am sure with 10+ offers over asking by monday.
BRT,
The mask thing is disgusting and not at all surprising. Especially considering how disgustingly corrupt Murphy is. Murphy really is no different than Trump. He lies through his teeth. Where Trump bad mouths you if you don’t support him, Murphy pays people to not disagree with him. And I swear, he must pay all of his appointees to write these non-stop positive image pieces that we see all of the time that are deceptive and filled with lies.
Chi,
Looks like a pretty good deal if you are thinking Kettlebell plus 1 yr free virtual membership.
https://www.cnet.com/health/fitness/bowflexs-clever-adjustable-kettlebell-is-50-off-right-now/
Side note from Bloomberg: Jeff Currie, top GS commodity guy “I’ve been doing this 30 years and I’ve never seen markets like this. This is a molecule crisis. We’re out of everything, I don’t care if it’s oil, gas, coal, copper, aluminum, you name it we’re out of it.”
Home prices are ridiculous in this state.
And with the property taxes, it’s beyond ridiculous. Even as a homeowner with equity, I hope that fat Mary gags on a ham sandwich from the proceeds of her dump that smells like provolone.
re: Currie & “we’re out of it.”
There is plenty in the ground. The shortage “out of it” here is the investment dollars needed to dig it up. Problems with metals are mainly caused by the governments. Peru, Chile, Congo etc. Problems with oil because of US government specially Biden. Demand levels are above the supply levels, so it does not matter what is done the prices will continue to rise. It would take a recession to stop the prices from rising now. For Oil the US is nearly 2 million barrels a day shorter supply than just two years ago. 12.9 Million barrels a day in Dec 2019 and somewhere are 11 million a day last month.
It’s going to take decades to go green and reduce C02 emissions based upon the targets that were set and with it a huge amounts of commodities like copper, to make it happen. Currie is calling it a commodity supercycle, which means a huge amount of cost push inflation everywhere.
Fast: Don t worry young people have plenty of money they don’t know what to do with. They are making 200k or more plus bonus, their 401ks are bulging with money. They are only too happy to pay the house prices and property taxes in this august area we live in. They will continue to pay the increasing prices and taxes. Inflation student loans don’t worry these young people have it covered. And they know that housing prices won’t go down. It’s different this time and these savvy young folks know that.
Lib – re: “he must pay all of his appointees to write these non-stop positive image pieces”.
They just claimed to have saved the state 3 Billion in bond expenditures. Sure they retired the debt but the interest savings is really only about $60 million a year for the next 10 years or so.
Again they borrowed 3.7 Billion due to the pandemic and budget hole they projected THAT NEVER materialized, and then went and paid down some older debt with that borrowed money. It’s a crazy shell game. They are flush down in Trenton too lots of pandemic money from the Feds coming. My guess is the towns will apply for it and use it as cash bonuses to the local municipal employees. It’s not like they need to stockpile PPE and test kits are the local borough hall.
Nomad
Thanks for the kettlebell tip. Just ordered it.
Spirit and Frontier merging is an interesting one. Leapfrog over Jetblue to become the 5th largest airline in the US, right below United.
I’ve been to the Frontier HQ in Denver, they really are a great group of folks there. Got to watch flight operations do their magic, which was really cool to see. They have a tremendously loyal customer base, despite their size and position as a low-cost carrier.
Nomad
+1 on the kettleball. I actually had a $100 BB Gift card in my pocket that I’ve had for about 2 years. I had planned to finally go this week and find something to spend it on.
Looked at this open house yesterday. Aggressively priced or it would already be under contract on day 1. Looks like there will be repairs and upgrades to do too, as it’s been with the original owners for over 20 yrs.
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/3606-Fair-Oaks-Pl-Longboat-Key-FL-34228/47464390_zpid/
I would hope to get more for $3.5m but there’s not much to buy in that price zone in the area.
The local country club hiked its new full member induction fee from $55k last year to $125k this year, and the golf courses are busy. St. Regis is building condos on the beach and 3BR/3BA condos are going for something like $6m.
So they charged the Accord driver. He walks away from that crash with minor injuries.
More Summonses to come implies they are still looking for the Truck Driver.
https://dailyvoice.com/new-jersey/northernvalley/news/video-driver-charged-in-wild-nj-road-rage-crash-caught-on-dashcam/825430/
Even I ordered the bowflex kettlebell, despite having too many already. I’ll check out the videos but no way would I keep paying a subscription beyond a year.
I do worry that its less compact shape will be a problem for some exercises.
The main benefit of this kettlebell is that as you grow stronger you won’t need to buy newer, heavier kettlebells, and you can make more gradual upgrades. Years ago when I started I did 15lb for just a few days, moved up to 25lb, I think I eventually peaked at 35lb, but I had to wear weightlifter gloves to avoid hurting my hands, and I got forearm bruises. And anytime I go on hiatus I have to drop back down.
Expect to be very sore the day after your first kettlebell workout. It activates muscles you didn’t know you had, besides the obvious ones.
3b,
There are so many facts about current state of salary and jobs if people shared more. I know Lib said 2% or something. I manage 4 resources – 1 Swiss, 1 Pune, 1 US and 1 Poland. My US and Swiss resource got 0% increase. Poland by 6% and Pune got 16%. My Euro IB has made the call – f US. We only care about keeping cheap resources happy. I hope exit after comp day sounds like a herd of elephants tomorrow. I expect the shaft as well. Hey, but I hear giving banks bailout money really helps US worker.
That was my first thought as well, that this set of kettlebells would be too bulky. It can still be useful, a space saver, and a little less expensive than buying traditional sets. It’s also discounted on Amazon for those interested. I briefly used the bowflex adjustable dumbbells and they really were too bulky for most exercises.
Also, there are other sets on Amazon – regular and adjustable – for similar prices. You’d need to review each one for material quality.
No One says:
February 7, 2022 at 11:39 am
Even I ordered the bowflex kettlebell, despite having too many already. I’ll check out the videos but no way would I keep paying a subscription beyond a year.
I do worry that its less compact shape will be a problem for some exercises.
The main benefit of this kettlebell is that as you grow stronger you won’t need to buy newer, heavier kettlebells, and you can make more gradual upgrades. Years ago when I started I did 15lb for just a few days, moved up to 25lb, I think I eventually peaked at 35lb, but I had to wear weightlifter gloves to avoid hurting my hands, and I got forearm bruises. And anytime I go on hiatus I have to drop back down.
Expect to be very sore the day after your first kettlebell workout. It activates muscles you didn’t know you had, besides the obvious ones.
Stu: I suspect that the repurchase has more to do with this…… if the corporate action is so infrequent, then there must be some other pragmatic reason. I suggest a non-strategic windfall.
Seattle, Washington-based Amazon’s fourth-quarter increased to $14.3 billion or $27.75 per share from $7.2 billion or $14.09 per share last year. Fourth-quarter profit includes a pre-tax valuation gain of $11.8 billion from the company’s investment in Rivian Automotive Inc., which completed an initial public offering in November.
Libturd says:
February 6, 2022 at 4:03 pm
Chi,
Call me cynic, but share buybacks raise EPS by reducing the share count. Considering they have an open program to buy back shares since 2016. I find their timing a little dubious. Their two last quarters were weak EPS wise. It made sense to purchase some to juice earnings.
Listen, I still think long-term, Amazon and Apple are the two surest bets. I just think NOW isn’t the time to buy anything. I think we are about to face a serious correction by the end of tax season, I will definitely be adding some of both names at that time.
Perhaps. We’ll never know.
Bystander: I am not hearing from any family or friends any news on big increases, although still early. We have been max 2.00 since the financial crisis. However, we have been told that will be increasing due to rise in inflation, but by how much , who knows. The days of double digit increases is gone as far as I can tell. Even high singe digit increases seem to be rare. If there are any real increases it’s in bonus pay, but of course that can be adjusted year to year. Companies appear to be keeping fixed costs as low as possible.
Ottawa declares state of emergency over trucker protest, and top Biden aide says Russia invasion of Ukraine could come at any day.
…top Biden aide says Russia invasion of Ukraine could come at any day.
Quick, let’s find some other bombshell fake angle to the January 6th erect1on!
Fauci and Biden are losing the narrative one person at a time. They’ve lost the majority already.
The anti mandate protests are not going to stop. They will grow.
For any politician who wants to survive they’ve cut to cut loose from these losers or they will be dragged down also. I’m expecting to hear of faucis departure soon. He’s a liability every time he opens his mouth which he does quite often.
Eddie. Biden fingerprints are all over Ukraine. Who else could provide a combination of ineffectiveness and corruption but a 50 year politician such as himself. Biden is irrelevant to Putin. He’s compromised and in a box.
The US Bobsled team should name their sled “Biden”. Nothing can take America downhill faster.
LOL!!
He’s compromised and in a box.
No matter how liberals want to spin it, bullets will not stop rhetoric and symbolism.
Gov. M running for President . . .
His run would combine the reception DiBlasio received in the 2020 primary with the burning piles of personal money to run of Bloomberg that year.
I guess he’s trying to position himself as a progressive Governor, hoping to be left enough to win the primary. If he has the notion that he will ever be President, then I’d simply say that he has a delusional view of how the American public would perceive him. He almost just lost a gubernatorial election as the Dem in one of the bluest states in the US, for crying out loud.
crushed,
Any logic doesn’t matter when it comes to the ultra rich. They are surrounded by yes men and think they can buy anything. Bloomberg even convinced Mikie Sherrill to take his money in exchange for an endorsement. To this day, I’m pretty sure that is the only money she’s taken.
It must be nice to be able to buy anything from anyone. Unfortunately, Murphy is significantly more polished than Bloomberg. Bloomberg’s problem is that he works too much. Murphy, not so much.
Lib,
Have you watched Succession? While we are squeezing DND coupons, they will throw a million in bribe money around like it is a laugh. The Poor bum scene as prime example. That family operates exactly how I picture the ultra wealthy operating…
So who is financing these truck protests. Trucks don’t sit idle for days/weeks. They need to be running to meet costs in most cases. Feels a lot like the Tea Party when the wrapped bus shows up. Banners and Bouncy castles and agitators causing trouble.
https://twitter.com/PiperK/status/1490562228344532993
What an empty threat Biden is tossing out there. Nord Stream 2 is not even a operational pipeline. Yemal through Poland or Transgas thru Ukraine would have way more impact.
Cut the existing pipelines then ban all Russian flights, and then kick em off swift if they invade.
The town of Mount Union WI where the Foxconn factory was going to be “built” is on the hook for $35mm. Have not heard about the expanded production plans for Harley or Carrier. Are the plant expansions currently under construction?
https://captimes.com/opinion/dave-zweifel/opinion-mount-pleasant-sinking-under-the-weight-of-foxconn/article_8f486ce3-f653-531e-8dd1-f0a562de6224.html?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=user-share
Intel initially will invest $20B in their New Albany Ohio fab and up to $100B for up to 8 fabs. The chips made at the new facility will be Intel’s most advanced 2 nanometer product. Property values already responding positively. Dirt will begin to move this fall and the folks at Ohio Cat are pretty happy.
In other news, Ford ideling plants due to chip shortage and other auto manufacturers don’t see the shortage abating in 2022.
Rumble offers Rogan 100 million to leave Spotify.
https://twitter.com/rumblevideo/status/1490718158449172481/photo/1
Ottawa truckers are peaceful so far, seems Antifa however is up there causing trouble. Apparently they are going to stop them from bringing in gas cans now, so the call went out to troll the authorities and they are asking everyone to walk around with an empty gas can. Judge up there ruled said they can no longer toot their horns either. I gather the arrests will be starting soon enough.sa
As I have mentioned previously the courts tossed Biden’s mandate, so the US truckers don’t have to vaccinate it’s hard enough to get truckers now anyway so no reason to piss of the USA based drivers.
And if you did not get the memo pandemic is over…
Fun fact, Rumble says it is moving its HQ to Longboat Key, FL.
Bystander. Will check out Succession.
Succession is really well done.
Juice: You are getting a WaWa with gas at New Monmouth & 35 where the old Friendly’s was
Sizzlies on me.