From CNN:
Home sales dropped 20% in August from a year ago
Home sales declined for the seventh month in a row in August as higher mortgage rates and stubbornly high prices pushed prospective buyers out of the market.
Sales of existing homes — which include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops — were down 19.9% from a year ago and down 0.4% from July, according to a report from the National Association of Realtors.
Sales in August were at their weakest level since May 2020, which was an anomaly because that was in the early days of the pandemic lockdown. Setting that aside, sales last month were the weakest they have been since November 2015.
A year-over-year decline in sales was seen in all price categories, with steeper drops at the lower end, and in all regions, dropping the most in the West where affordability challenges are greatest.
Home prices continued to climb during the month, although it was the lowest year-over-year increase since June 2020. The median home price was $389,500 in August, up 7.7% from a year ago, according to the report. That’s down from the record high of $413,800 in June. The price increase marks more than a decade of year-over-year monthly gains.
“The housing sector is the most sensitive to and experiences the most immediate impacts from the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy changes,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist. “The softness in home sales reflects this year’s escalating mortgage rates.”
first
Geez America. The criminals here have reached a new low. It’s amazing what people will do here for money.
Toddler dies in hot car after his father is shot dead by thief who then stole the vehicle and abandoned it with the little boy inside
Interesting comments from a retired US Army General. Seems many of these new Russian conscripts will be with their units on the front lines after only a few days training.
https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1572571676524838915
Inventory is tight and whatever comes on the market is gone. We don’t experience drastic price drops in our area, chubby Mary gets her price despite the gag factor. And regardless of price, are you giving up your current 3%, 30-year fixed for a 6% mortgage? It becomes psychological. We all hate paying interest. I’m curious to see where this slow moving ship will be in a year from now.
As a side note, J. Powell is full steam ahead on 2% inflation. Rate hikes will be methodical and will continue despite the screaming horror heard in the distance.
J. Powell is full steam ahead on 2% inflation. Rate hikes will be methodical and will continue despite the screaming horror heard in the distance.
Climb, baby, Climb.
https://youtu.be/kaddVUt79PM?t=125
So tell me again “why” Trump has classified documents in his pool house?
Is 9:30-10:30am the new Rush Hour? Had to drive from the shore to Ridgewood yesterday and the Parkway was packed. It used to be by 9:30am all the work traffic was cleared. Rt. 17 yikes!
Rush hour has gotten so much worse now that school has started.
Feels like a lot of people decided to go into the office much more frequently not that kids are in school, and that are all hitting the roads around the same time now.
Parkway north of about 135 is packed everyday. You’ll hit exceptional pockets of traffic around Union, 280, Rt 3/46, and Rt 80 where it really slows down. Opens up again north of 80 usually. Northbound Mondays are typically the worst, but every day is bad.
Southbound on Thursdays is hell.
I spend way too much of my life in Nj traffic.
From 2017 to the moment we were blindsided by the Wuhan plague was a glorious time. Gas was $1.89 a gallon, ultra low inflation, 2.5% Home mortgage rates, low unemployment, a rising stock market, no wars, Middle East agreements finalized previously thought improbable, real wages were rising, America’s enemies feared us, low crime was in check, diligence at the border and the availability of goods and services were plentiful. We didn’t know how good we had it. But animosity, bitterness, resentment and anti-American rhetoric reared it’s ugly head as the power shakers on the left stoked the flames of the ill-equipped, ill-advised, ill-informed, unaccountable and irresponsible masses whom displayed their rage and jealousy by burning and looting in literal and figurative terms. Good times were replaced by fake dilemmas fed by fake allegations fueled by fake ink slingers concluded by fake prescripts. Let’s hope the soot settles and the soulless are replaced by the soulful once again.
In his pool house
Nothing says soulful like grift, fraud, lies, and outright stupidity.
2Y 409
10Y 356
To be fair, his pool house is probably nicer than most of our houses.
You sure know a lot about conditional law. You must have got your info from Don Lemmon. Real experts in the field you two. I’m sure it’s all true.
Remember when the left cared about civil liberties? Seems like ancient history now. The authoritarian left has ascended, unbridled power is the name of the game.
Which of Eddie’s 2 comments this morning is more delusional? Certainly the real estate comment was less offensive.
wage growth did not increase until after the pandemic began
Donnie’s a big boy … I mean he’s packing on the pounds just in case they run out of bamberders in hell.
8:41 yeah, that’s it. Deeeeeep state. Toss that ol’ trope on the fire.
Having Trump out of the Whitehouse and off Twitter is much calmer. I didnt say better, but the news cycle is more comedic and embarrassing versus cortisol coursing through your veins
“As a side note, J. Powell is full steam ahead on 2% inflation.”
I need to sit down over the weekend and re-evaluate…
Best descriptor was actually Gundlach yesterday…something on the order that the Fed chief is effectively Mr Magoo with thick glasses driving his jalopy around not stopping until he runs into things…
If he is serious about 2% – which the market did not believe and is still skeptical – two points fall out for me.
First, recession locked. Curbing inflation on that scale – from 8+% now to 2% – with his timeline cannot be done with any degree of surgical precision. Overshoot guaranteed.
Second, the Magoo analogy…spot on…his directionless action is frustrating…if he is going full-on to 2% hard then as everyone agrees he should have just yanked the bandaid off and frontloaded the hikes, heavy, slamming on the brakes and getting it over quickly. If on the other hand, as he appeared to be doing, if he were managing rates with large but steady increases and then following the data to try to soft land with rates and by implication inflation higher for longer then his (mis)direction on toughness is counterproductive…..basically, yes, he is acting like a mostly confused, feeble old man with poor vision backing a landau Buick out of a crowded parking lot.
FFR moved a little more than 25bps…we are now peaking at 4.60 in April 2023 and then a very flat glide to decreases thereafter…Dec 2022 shows 4.10, up 100 bps from here with two Fed meetings left (Nov, Dec).
If you tell me he does 50bps in Nov and 50 in Dec to get to the FFR curve (and coincidentally to their own internal forecast) and then wait I’m bullish near term…if you tell me he intends to get to 2% inflation by mid-next year that is inconsistent with the FFR curve and even their own FFR forecast and I’m not near term bullish, looking for a not insignificant recession in first or second quarter 2023…
The cognitive dissonance with this guy is fucking maddening…give me Greenspan any day…..
Media induced cortisol I will add. That presidential drama was a full put-on by them 24 x 7. They don’t put out even half as many stories about sleepy joe these days and their ratings and earnings show the worse for it, just look at the latest CNN Anchors who have been fired or demoted because they have nothing to say anymore, and can no longer generate eyeballs to garner quartley revenue.
Also, when looking at the equity markets relative to the Fed don’t ignore the power of a two year over 4%…for the first time in 14 years there actually is an alternative to equities for your money…
Watch funds flows…that alone, especially if he raises to the point to get to 2% soon, may be one of the more significant factors for the direction of equities…
Hughes, approximately what time in that area of the Parkway are we talking? Since they moved back my school day start/end time 40 minutes, I’m on the road an extra 40 minutes a day. 75 minutes to work and an hour and 40 out now.
I’m in the market for a new job and trying to gauge commutes and choke points.
“I’m in the market for a new job and trying to gauge commutes and choke points.”
Day trading lol, which currently appears to be your partial employ already (never knew).
Sorry for your current District if you depart, that would be a loss for them.
Left: Fed had another opportunity to go big yesterday with a full point, they elected not to. Should have started with 100 bp back in March to demonstrate that they were serious.
As for overshooting, I agree. The soft landing ain’t happening.
Phoenix,
Don’t worry, the black suspect of the double murder hasn’t been shot by white police, and his murders weren’t obviously motivated by “racial hate” so this incident warrants no national coverage.
I guess a trope is now anything that is inconvenient to my narrative.
The double standards and weaponization of government institutions that is now taking place is unprecedented in my lifetime. Bama using the irs to turn screws on people is child’s play compared to what the fbi and doj have been up to.
“If you tell me he does 50bps in Nov and 50 in Dec to get to the FFR curve (and coincidentally to their own internal forecast) and then wait I’m bullish near term…”
Am I wrong, it looked as if 75 + 75 into the end of the year.
Also, you only need to go out 1 year to get 410 if you want greater price stability.
I think you bang the table to buy individual securities in blocks of 50-100 so you can exert complete control.
10Y 365
Where is 30 fixed mortgage? Are we 6.5% area or higher?
On markets, I think financial media is being myopic. The last 20 years have been mostly a period of artificial interest rate suppression where savers were not allowed to earn positive real yields, nearly 20 years of what I’d consider subsidization of debtors. All part of central planners’ plans to “stimulate” the economy almost non-stop. Interest rates are 4% now. That wouldn’t be unusual if inflation were 2% to 3%. Still not a rate that compensates investors fairly for their savings. I hope that the new normal will have central bankers giving up this constant stimulus. But there are a huge # of people who have lived a whole generation high on inadequately priced debt, and coming off that high will be painful.
The cognitive dissonance with this guy is fucking maddening…give me Greenspan any day…..
What would Greenspan do differently. Go full 1% every meeting? Would he have started raising sooner? I think JP said 2% or bust… sooner or later, doesn’t matter. He sounds committed and absolute. I am well behind in the level of expertise you guys possess in finite economics so I’m truly curious.
GOAT,
The windmills in the minds of liberals are as mysterious and confusing as the imaginary windmills funded by that $740 billion dollar smash and grab.
We’ve seen it all from the left before Eddie. They’re planning an old game, a very dangerous one. Weaponize the state against the populace.
School board paarents and maga grandmas are a bigger threat to them than drug cartels and foreign agents.
re: “nearly 20 years of what I’d consider subsidization of debtors” AND ” inadequately priced debt”
Powell is just playing the long game along with the government, the 6ft under long game.
The Government is the main winner here, the low interest rates have allowed our National Debt to grow to nearly 31 Trillion. With current inflation rates higher than the interest rates we get to pay it back with devalued dollars too a win win for the government, we are now paying about 500 Billion a year in debt service.
Just remember only 10 years ago the debt was 15 Trillion and now it’s 30 Trillion, the debt service has grown from 225 billion a year in 2012 to 500 billion a year now. There is now around 17 Trillion of the debt in UST held by foreign countries too.
Fast forward only 4 years from now and the National Debt is expected to balloon to 41 Trillion based upon current projections but the debt service may only be about 600 billion a year, only 100 Billion a year more than now while tax collections are expected to double.
No matter what Powell jawbones about we will never hit 2% inflation, he will have sailed off into the sunset and perhaps even 6 ft under by the time the bill comes due.
Chgo: Earlier I’m the week before yesterdays hike, Mortgage rates were at 6.25. We can easily go to 7 percent soon. I remember when a 7 percent mortgage was a great rate.
“The level of ignorance on display by you is astounding.”
Always comical to watch Wile E Coyote take a shotgun and pull the trigger, only to see the barrels were pointed toward him.
To stay high level on your specific comments…
Your description of the machinations of GAAP were correct but entirely off point…
The point is that the AG is trying to criminalize the personal opinion one has of the value of their illiquid assets. Moreover, that the values were a personal opinion would have been disclosed and, if not, by practice and presentation would be known to be so.
It is entirely analogous to this scenario…Gary lists his home for $1.0m, a price which he and his broker both know to be inflated and will never come close to clearing any appraisal. He accepts an offer at market, say $750k. The NJ AG then comes in and sues Gary for fraud for misrepresenting the value of his home. Despite the buyer accepting the sale price, making all her payments, and otherwise being very content in her new house.
That is what is going on in the NY AG suit against Trump, at a corporate level.
On to the specifics you post, as you pull the trigger on that shotgun while looking down the barrels…
First, ‘Trump’ in the charges means him personally with respect to his personal actions and as officer of Trump Co. so your statement below is incorrect…
“We are not talking about Donnies personal/compiled financials…., we are talking Trump.org, private for profit company.”
Secondly, companies (private and public) as a matter of practice provide non-GAAP financials to their banks ALL THE TIME. Especially private companies. It is so common and widespread that a bank NOT in possession of non-GAAP financials of a client would be hard to find. Your statement below is just patently false.
“All companies define the accounting standard they want to follow and have to stick to it. Most choose GAAP. If the org is defining GAAP as the standard they have to follow the rules.”
Third, it is unclear from the AG’s presser exactly what materials Trump provided to the banks that are the basis of her suit. She uses the word ‘compiled’ which as I presume you know has a very specific meaning regarding financials prepared by an accountant. Does she mean ‘compiled’ in that sense or that he compiled (ie, collected and handed over) records without any involvement of accountants?
Either way, it does not matter.
If the accountants issued a compilation it is clearly stated by them that the contents are solely management’s, that they did nothing to verify the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, that they express no opinion on it, that the statements are not prepared according to GAAP, and that there are no additional disclosures (the Notes) normally associated with an audit.
In other words, the first page of the compilation Donnie would have provided to the banks states right up front “caution, management’s opinion only, information not complete”.
If Trump did not use an accountant and the financial statements were internally prepared it would wildly unusual for those to be presented on a GAAP basis, and by omitting an accountant altogether they are obviously solely management’s opinion. And, contrary to your statements, banks treat personal financial statements and company prepared financials the same way – as if they were drawn in crayon on construction paper.
So, no matter how you cut it, the banks were on notice that the financials were DJT’s opinion on the value of his assets, and the crux of the AG suit is that she is trying criminalize one’s personal opinion of the value of their illiquid assets all while having no injured parties.
This was my career for decades…I literally cannot count how many of these types of loans I’ve made and the line, credit, commitment committees, and associated internal processes and procedural wringers I’ve been through doing so.
You are just flat out incorrect.
Chgo: 30 year quoted at 6.29 today, highest rate since Oct, 2008
News is now reporting that the Russians are secretly mobilizing one million men instead of 300,000 as announced.
Russia now seeing perhaps shades of the 1950s and 1960s in America perhaps?
Draft statistics from the United States by year from 1950-1974 ( Korean and Vietnam Wars).
Men age 18-25 drafted annually for 21 months of service.
1950 219,771
1951 551,806
1952 438,479
1953 471,806
1954 253,230
1955 152,777
1956 137,940
1957 138,504
1958 142,246
1959 96,153
1960 86,602
1961 118,586
1962 82,060
1963 119,265
1964 112,386
1965 230,991
1966 382,010
1967 228,263
1968 296,406
1969 283,586
1970 162,746
1971 94,092
1972 49,514
1973 646 (Nixon cancels the draft)
During Vietnam War approx half a million Americans dodged the draft and fled the country.
“Left: Fed had another opportunity to go big yesterday with a full point, they elected not to. Should have started with 100 bp back in March…”
3b, we end up at the same conclusions coming from different directions…if his goal is to get to 2% soon then yes he should have done 100/100 or better Jun/Jul…we’d be two months into a real recession now, and looking at coming out early next year…
Chi, my screen right now is showing December FFR at 95.95, ie. 4.05…current FFR after yesterday is presumably 3.00-3.25 so about 100bps to year end with two meetings left?
“What would Greenspan do differently. Go full 1% every meeting?”
No, but he wouldn’t consistently talk one game, do another, and reverse on a dime unexpectedly…much prefer trying to discern policy by the size of the briefcase while he gives non-sequitur answers to specific questions to maintain flexibility than this guy who keeps slamming his rusty old Buick into forward, reverse, forward all the while fucking up the tranny….
Head of RBC commodities, believes gas prices will be heading up to 5 or more a gallon, in Fall/Winter. Also says losing not an option for Putin, I agree .
Left: Agreed, although skeptical we would be coming out of it early next year.
BRT
North bound anytime before 10. Southbound anytime after 2.
287 West/North is also pretty bad around the Edison area before 10.
Criminalize? No it’s a civil suit, they made a referral to the Fed for a criminal probe. Again three years of chasing the way the value their real estate holdings to borrow money. It’s completely political as there are many other real estate groups and companies that do it and will continue to the same thing.
Vornado Realty Trust owns 220 Central Park south where many of the super rich and famous own condos. How much do you think they value that place at? It has 118 units, they borrowed 2 Billion on it and payed it off too.
Head of RBC commodities, believes gas prices will be heading up to 5 or more a gallon, in Fall/Winter.
There’s only so much in the strategic oil reserve to tame the masses. It’s a dangerous game for slo joe to drain it down just to buy votes, especially when that dude over in Russia is ramping up the rage.
News is now reporting that the Russians are secretly mobilizing one million men instead of 300,000 as announced.
Americans are betting on Putin to act rationally. Gonna really suck if it turns out he is homicidal/suicidal.
Iodine tablets and SPF 6000.
Hey Q-Tip? Must never be fought? Have you forgotten the one America initiated? Oh, and by the way, realize that just because you say this doesn’t mean that someone is going to listen to you.
“US President Joe Biden was similarly defiant, pledging the West will ‘stand in solidarity against Russia’s aggression, period.’
He added: ‘A nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought.’
leftwing-
“It is entirely analogous to this scenario…Gary lists his home for $1.0m, a price which he and his broker both know to be inflated and will never come close to clearing any appraisal. He accepts an offer at market, say $750k.”
No- it’s not analagous to that at all.
What would be analagous is if Gary used his home, falsely valued at $1.0m, as collateral to obtain a loan.
If Gary intentionaly overvalued his home in order to get a better interest rate, or get a bigger loan, then he commited loan fraud.
OC1,
A working stiff would go to prison in your scenario. Never going to happen to Trump.
Justice is something you buy in America, like a car or a stove.
Yikes!
2Y 415
10Y 370
Chicago says:
September 22, 2022 at 8:38 am
2Y 409
10Y 356
told you….. once 10Y broke 350… it is clear to 375….
OC1- Except there are no criminal fraud charges here, meaning the Attorney General of NY could not make the case. Her and an army of investigators and prosecutors kicked the can instead and referred their allegations of criminal fraud to federal prosecutors in SDNY as well as the IRS. We all know they had meetings with SDNY and IRS already yet there are no pending federal criminal charges….Perhaps too close to the mid terms for the feds or NOT close enough?
Real NY criminal tax fraud charges for Trump Org are up next next hearing on Oct 24th…..
Joyce,
Watch Long Shot on Netflix.
Guy saved from death row by Larry David and his show Curb your Enthusiasm.
Juan sued the city of Los Angeles for violating his civil rights.
Officer Guiral, who had acted on a gang member’s tip that Juan was the killer, couldn’t explain why he thought it was credible, or why he hadn’t verified what he was told, and admitted he was “duped.”
Detective Pinner admitted he’d never been formally trained as a homicide detective; that he’d lost count of how many complaints he’d received from the public, for illegally entering homes or improperly pointing his gun. He flew into a rage during his deposition, yelling and threatening, claiming Todd was stressing him out by tapping a coffee cup. He maintained the judge had made a mistake in releasing Juan.
Detective Rodriguez, the subject of four public complaints for misconduct, was asked whether he thought Juan Ibanez was a truthful witness. “He was the only witness we had,” he said.
Beth Silverman was defiant in her deposition.
“An innocent man was prosecuted,” said Gary Casselman, Juan’s civil rights attorney.
“That’s your opinion,” Silverman replied.
https://www.lamag.com/culturefiles/long-shot/
Or they were just too lazy. Or biased.
In the show I just posted about they managed to attempt a trial for a totally innocent man.
Maybe they could get “Sniper” Beth Silverman to go after Trump.
“meaning the Attorney General of NY could not make the case.”
“But there are a huge # of people who have lived a whole generation high on inadequately priced debt, and coming off that high will be painful.”
You mean the customers out buying Nissan Rogues with average car loans of 69 months? Know what those loans are going to cost now?
Holy headwinds. Add the sure annihilation of Ukraine and the huge impact of Europe not having heat this winter to your list of concerns. I just put in a grocery order at Walmart+. They were trying really hard to hold down the price increases on their groceries. Fuggedabout it. They no longer can. Milk, eggs, steak, orange juice and lots of dry goods including even their own brand, just shot up 25-50%. I’ve said it all along. This inflation is out-of-control. A year over year lowering of inflation from 8.5% to 8.3% is a joke. Especially with the backdrop of wage inflation of 5.2% which is also now declining and showed up about a year late to the inflation party.
There is a three-month lag in housing data. I swear to you all the collapse has already begun. The number of multi families that have just hit the market in these parts (most owned for twenty or more years and one single owner owned since it was built that are coming on the market is a clear sign. We have hit the top. Now, the impatient suckers, who have been outbid for the past three years are the ones keeping the prices from dropping. Those idiots will run out sure enough.
The Treasury is also about to double their asset selling this month.
I’ve been following earnings season pretty closely. A lot of megacaps have gone from saying the future is unpredictable to simply guiding lower. And the analysts have been slowly reducing expectations for a year now, softening the blow, but leaving these shares overvalued.
Gas prices will definitely be increasing this winter. Your energy bill has already been raised by 25% if you have PSE&G. There may be a car bubble too, I am hearing a bit of chatter about. I look forward to this development as both of my Mazda’s are approaching 130K miles (come on leftover Kia Tellurides from ’22, the ’23’s blow!).
Finally, throw in lots of conflict around the mid-terms and more and more recession talk and the stock market is going to get ugly. Will there be contagion we couldn’t forsee? Who knows. All I know is that a single woman just bought a 900K home for 3% down and it’s going to be worth 700K in 2024. Hope our banks are ready. Hope Sallie and Freddie and Fannie are ready. I have a feeling they are not.
“Geez America. The criminals here have reached a new low. It’s amazing what people will do here for money.”
The kidnapping for ransoms are not far away.
They started some construction in kearny near the post office and shut down one lane each direction…. I saw 280 towards the holland tunnel was backed up around a mile last night…
78 they have multiple lanes going into 1…
Route 3 has been a mess forever
*Sigh* I miss the summer commute.
People told me yesterday it took them over 2 hours to go from around denville area to jersey city…
I left my house from montclair area 6:20 AM yesterday, didnt reach Jersey City until 7:10 AM
You think food prices are high? Just wait till you renew your health insurance premiums.
Lib: Well said as always. The party is over, it went on for years, and now is the clean up.
https://money.yahoo.com/what-rising-auto-loan-delinquencies-tell-us-about-the-economy-123734937.html
https://www.osc.state.ny.us/press/releases/2022/09/dinapoli-new-yorkers-debt-rise
juice-
yes this is a civil suit- no risk of prison, just fines, restitution, etc.
Also lower burdern of proof for the AG. But it’s still fraud that Trump is being sued for.
11:30 I think most people are thinking “their home” will retain its value.
Most of the housing is owned by strong positioned owners. They are not going to give up their strong position for a weak one. The result: no inventory of desirable homes. The data will say the price has dropped when it reality, the data will represent the price of pos inventory forced to sell. If you think you are getting a good deal on a nice house, dream the f on.
Besides, you said it in the post, inflation is out of control. How does home prices fall in an inflationary environment? They will stagnate or keep up with inflation in our area.
“There is a three-month lag in housing data. I swear to you all the collapse has already begun. The number of multi families that have just hit the market in these parts (most owned for twenty or more years and one single owner owned since it was built that are coming on the market is a clear sign. We have hit the top. Now, the impatient suckers, who have been outbid for the past three years are the ones keeping the prices from dropping. Those idiots will run out sure enough.”
Mortgage delinquencies were near record lows in 2007 and at the start of 2008 too.
Juice, agree on common and accepted business practices re: Vornado and the others…that’s one of my main points.
On civil vs. criminal? That makes the situation even more egregious in my opinion…she lacks standing to bring criminal charges so a government entity (again, not as in most civil cases the injured party) is bringing a civil case?
Scanned the first dozen or so pages of the complaint to type this response…not only is it political but it is just fucking with him…seriously, among the top allegations are that he overstates his net worth (who gives a flying fuck) which as we all know is an incredible hot point with him.
Political and personal. Entirely. The State AG…..
Also, loaded some more META….
Searched for a house from 2009 to the last week in 2011. I was going to give up. How did I get mine, family friend that was going through a divorce. That’s how difficult it is to find a house during a bust. This time it will be even worse, as current homeowners are paid off or have low rates compared to what is available. Back in 2008, it was the opposite conditions. Weak homeowner positions and rate environment was opposite of today.
Libturd says:
September 22, 2022 at 12:34 pm
Mortgage delinquencies were near record lows in 2007 and at the start of 2008 too.
Lib; Housing will take a big hit! Let’s see what happens when rates go to 7 percent, like back in the day! And back then 7 was considered a good rate. I am still amazed over your buyer for the multi, 900k with 3 percent down!!
Oc1 – What restitution? Care to explain? The loans are not in default I even heard a CNN talking head say today that they were paid off.
BRT,
“I’m in the market for a new job”
What area and how is that going? Just wondering, no real specifics necessary.
Morris County. The later start time isn’t viable. Kids are the first to admit, they now stay up later. But they are all leaving an hour early for sports now because it was standard for them to leave at 2:00 pm for away games. We have teachers that coach leaving early as well missing half of their classes so far.
Biggest complaint comes from the kids. Now that their sports practices are pushed back 40 minutes, they basically have no free time at home. If Murphy gets his way and makes this a statewide thing, it’s going to screw with every family’s schedule.
As far as me looking for a new job, I won’t leave mid year, but I can find another spot for next year. In my subject area, there’s always 20 openings with 2 people at most to fill them. I can hand pick my job and demand the maximum salary, which I’m already at.
I have a leg up over any applicant because I can teach any level of Physics or Chemistry and save districts money by splitting the subjects. They can hire me instead of 2 teachers.
Rep Tlaib is on the financial services committee and has no idea who Ben Bernanke is. She was 30 years old when he was appointed.
https://twitter.com/Wu_Tang_Finance/status/1228071303472730115
“No- it’s not analagous to that at all. What would be analagous is if Gary used his home, falsely valued at $1.0m, as collateral to obtain a loan. If Gary intentionaly overvalued his home in order to get a better interest rate, or get a bigger loan, then he commited loan fraud.”
Again, NO, because you have no idea how a bank works with corporate clients.
If you want my analogy refined Gary says to the bank “I want a refi and my opinion is my home is worth $1.0m”. Bank does its normal diligence – comps, gets an appraisal – that shows its worth $750k. Bank lends to him based on $750k.
No fraud.
Gary’s opinion of the value of his own home is irrelevant, to the market and the lender. The fact that his opinion differs materially from a final sale price or third party opinion of valuation is not a crime/civil case. You can assert and promote your opinion of value on your illiquid asset…it is not a crime.
Gary takes a third party appraisal and alters the numbers in the analysis from 750k to 1m and hands it to the bank? Fraud.
But that is not what is being alleged re: Trump.
BRT,
I feel for you, they did the same thing to my district 5 or 6 years ago. What a joke. I’ll leave it at that. The big dogs aren’t impacted, so of course they see no problem with it.
What problems did it solve? Nada.
Basically, the way I hit traffic with the later times, it makes more sense for me to work in Bergen County on a normal schedule. I would get home earlier and make $15k more.
2nd term Murphy, looking an awful lot like a 3rd term Bloomberg.
Since he’s run outta shit to do (or at least he thinks he has), he starts screwing around with non-political issues. Remember smoking bans, soda bans, tax increases.
Murphy has moved on to such low hanging fruit as bag bans, school hour changes and tax increases.
Yes, but at least mini Mike had a good run on a number of things. Murphy screws up everything he touches.
leftwing-
It’s the intentional misrepresentation of the value of the assets in order to get better loan terms that’s the fraud (or attempted fraud).
Whether the lender accepts or rejects those valuations is irrelevant. Whether the lender gets paid is irrelevant. Whether the lender makes the loan or not is irrelevant.
Under the law, the fraud part is completely separate from whatever the lender does.
If somebody tries to sell you stock in a non-existent company, but you don’t fall for it, they have still committed stock fraud.
PS- I have no idea whether Trump committed fraud or not.
Cool story, brah!
https://www.nj.com/politics/2022/09/nj-to-send-nearly-150-state-troopers-to-puerto-rico-to-help-with-hurricane-fiona-recovery.html
Thanks, BRT. For some reason I forgot you were in teaching.
Lib,
It ain’t look much better next year. I don’t know how Corp America thinks this will work.
“Per SHRM, salary increase budgets in the U.S. are projected to grow, on average, just over 4 percent for 2023, less than half of the current annual inflation rate of 8.5 percent, according to new survey data.”
“Gary takes a third party appraisal and alters the numbers in the analysis from 750k to 1m and hands it to the bank? Fraud.
But that is not what is being alleged re: Trump”
Its exactly what is being alleged.
688. Weisselberg’s representations to Zurich’s underwriter that the valuations listed in Mr. Trump’s Statements were prepared annually by professional appraisal firms were false. As discussed in detail above, the Trump Organization did not retain any professional appraisal firm to prepare any of the valuations used for the Statements; instead, the valuations were prepared by Trump Organization personnel, contrary to what Zurich’s underwriter was expressly told and believed, and in almost all instances in a false and misleading manner.
689. Had Weisselberg told Zurich’s underwriter the truth about how the valuations for
the Statements she reviewed had actually been prepared, she would have accorded them less weight and it would have negatively impacted her underwriting analysis. Moreover, had Zurich’s underwriter discovered during the renewal process that Weisselberg had misrepresented to her how the valuations were prepared, it would have caused her to doubt the veracity of the rest of the information disclosed by the Trump Organization during the renewal and would have called into serious question whether Zurich should continue its insurance relationship with the Trump Organization, or renew on terms less favorable to the Trump Organization.
690. The Trump Organization also failed to disclose that the valuation for the golf
courses listed on Mr. Trump’s Statements within the “Clubs” category, which was approximately $2.2 billion in the 2019 Statement, included a substantial brand premium baked into the reported valuation. Under Zurich’s underwriting guidelines, intangible assets such as brand value are to be excluded.
691. Had Weisselberg disclosed to Zurich’s underwriter that the valuation listed for
“Clubs” included the Trump brand premium, she would have been required under the guidelines to reduce that valuation to exclude the premium.
Left as for the rest of your screed. I suggest you read the whole thing.
Now I have to spend the rest of my day trawling through 30 annexes addendums and amendments so I can prep my CTO for a client meeting where they claim, “we never told them” and he’ll say “but it says it right here in the contract.” It has nice little sections on Representations and Warranties and things like Jurisdiction.
https://ag.ny.gov/sites/default/files/complaint_with_exhibits_part1.pdf
13. Nor can the false and fraudulent asset values in the Statements be defended based on boilerplate disclaimers in the accountant’s compilation report accompanying each Statement. While the accountants gave notice in the reports that they did not audit or review the statements to verify the accuracy or completeness of the information provided by Mr. Trump or the Trump Organization, they confirmed that their clients were responsible for preparing the Statements in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles in the United States (“GAAP”). The disclaimers may relieve the accountants of certain obligations that would otherwise adhere to their work on a more rigorous audit engagement, but they do not give license to Mr. Trump or the Trump Organization to submit to their accountants fraudulent and misleading asset valuations for inclusion in the Statements.
14. Moreover, Mr. Trump and the Trump Organization have no excuse for issuing Statements of Financial Condition that repeatedly violated GAAP rules in multiple ways despite expressly representing in the Statements that they were prepared in accordance with GAAP. Among the many GAAP rules they violated are: (i) including as “cash” funds that Mr. Trump could not immediately liquidate because they did not belong to him and may never be distributed to him; (ii) failing to determine the present value of projected future income when including the income as part of an asset valuation; (iii) failing to disclose a substantial change in methodology from the prior year’s statement for how an asset value was derived; (iv) failing to value the entirety of Mr. Trump’s interest in a partnership, including all limitations and restrictions on his interest; and (v) including intangibles such as internally-generated brand premiums when calculating an asset’s value.
Omg. Same dummies, another hoax. Is this the inflate gate hoax. Bombshell, game changer, beginning of the end. Getting played for the fool again. Pathetic. Have some pride.
GOAT,
I can’t keep track anymore. Lol. They used to milk a story for weeks, then days, now it’s down to hours. The January 6th erect1on prime time Hula/Netflux/HDOMax series seems like years ago. Is this series cancelled by the cancel culture after season one?
Where’s Liz Chaney? Lol. [Insert loud Joe Pesci voice here] “They really got him this time, Henry! I swear Henry!! They got him now!!”
Do you think maybe that moron saying “elect me and I’ll find a way to prosecute trump” will taint the case? Maybe just a little?
They’ve institutionalized the resistance. Sadly for them these people are wholly incompetent. Can barely put a sentence together.
Fabs, glad you read it rather than I…I did 12 pages and said it quits.
Forget 688 above, not credible and you don’t need it because the gem below from paragraph 13 seals the deal…yes, that is illegal.
“Moreover, Mr. Trump and the Trump Organization have no excuse for issuing Statements of Financial Condition that repeatedly violated GAAP rules in multiple ways despite expressly representing in the Statements that they were prepared in accordance with GAAP…”
The pissing match of ‘he thinks its worth this but likely it is lower’ is a sideshow.
BRT, the wife is questioning her chooses. As you know she goes above and beyond with classes she doesn’t need to teach but the kids like it. Last year another bio teacher quite and they asked her to teach an extra class this year, I think its now 7 classes with no prep periods. All B’s when she used to teach honors. She is at the top of the guide and they are paying for the extra class but now ready to loose it. She just left for back to school and said this place F-ing place sucks. lol
In other news..here is how Ed’s tick,,tick..tick is looking
-Palin urges Begich to drop House bid; Begich declines
-House GOP cuts loose Ohio candidate (and Trump shrine maker) Majewski who lied about military service
In other election news Politics as usual ain’t local..Warnock from Georgia raised about 7 million from NY and CA donors last month.
Trick,
7 classes, no prep? All year? Insane. I’ve done it before temporarily but I get the equivalent of $150k salary when under those conditions. But I actually like the place I work at a lot, and actually respect the admin. The new schedule and commute just aren’t working with me living in Mercer County. Your wife’s situation is becoming more and more common in science. But if you need, I know a few schools that have bio departments in shambles probably looking to hire. One thing that sucks about being at top of the guide is it makes it harder to move. The max at all the schools by me is $15k below what I’m making.
Things got absurdly frothy, and people bought into the housing market lest they get left behind. It was not a rational market and was bound to fall. Rinse and repeat, bubble after bubble.
Hey Shore!!!