Welcome to another edition of Lowball!
Lowball! takes a look at home sales from a different perspective. For those new to Lowball!, a lowball offer is when a buyer offers a significantly lower bid than asking in hopes that the seller accepts the offer. We take a list of home sales from the past month and pick out the sales that have the highest percentage difference between original list price and selling price.
The purpose of Lowball! is to show buyers that the market has changed and buyers now have considerably more leverage than sellers. Just a short time ago, Lowball! offers would have been laughed at and discarded, however, not any more. The fact that so many under-asking offers are being accepted is clear proof that the market is changing.The list does not contain all sales, I hand-pick the most interesting sales from the list. These listings might be the highest dollar drops, biggest percentage reductions, or sales in towns that are thought to still be ‘hot’. Please note, even with double digit percentage reductions, these homes are still incredibly overpriced.
Below is a list of all Lowball sales from October 1st through the 15th. I used the 17% off OLP point for this table.
| MLS | Town | OLP | LP | SP | % off OLP | % off LP |
| 1638072 | Raritan Twp. (1921) | $1,000,000 | $1,000,000 | $560,000 | 44.0% | 44.0% |
| 2243604 | Garwood Boro (2906) | $1,099,999 | $749,900 | $650,000 | 40.9% | 13.3% |
| 2317643 | Denville Twp. (2308) | $632,000 | $499,999 | $425,000 | 32.8% | 15.0% |
| 2270484 | Verona Twp. (1620) | $425,000 | $335,000 | $300,000 | 29.4% | 10.4% |
| 2261372 | White Twp.* (3023) | $199,900 | $175,000 | $142,500 | 28.7% | 18.6% |
| 2308114 | Haledon Boro (2503) | $299,900 | $219,900 | $219,000 | 27.0% | 0.4% |
| 2284054 | Mount Olive Twp. (2327) | $698,000 | $589,000 | $515,000 | 26.2% | 12.6% |
| 2258252 | Kingwood Twp. (1916) | $324,900 | $269,900 | $240,000 | 26.1% | 11.1% |
| 2287464 | Oakland Boro (1142) | $369,000 | $329,000 | $275,000 | 25.5% | 16.4% |
| 2102578 | Liberty Twp. (3014) | $219,000 | $169,900 | $165,000 | 24.7% | 2.9% |
| 2295795 | Tewksbury Twp.* (1924) | $2,495,000 | $2,495,000 | $1,900,000 | 23.8% | 23.8% |
| 2100541 | Rahway City (2913) | $299,900 | $299,900 | $230,000 | 23.3% | 23.3% |
| 2276556 | Montgomery Twp | $550,000 | $449,900 | $425,000 | 22.7% | 5.5% |
| 2270561 | West Orange Twp | $489,000 | $449,000 | $382,500 | 21.8% | 14.8% |
| 2253791 | Jefferson Twp.* (2314) | $370,000 | $300,000 | $290,000 | 21.6% | 3.3% |
| 2263452 | Plainfield City* (2912) | $350,000 | $275,000 | $275,000 | 21.4% | 0.0% |
| 2275390 | Denville Twp.* (2308) | $699,900 | $599,900 | $550,000 | 21.4% | 8.3% |
| 2270268 | Summit City (2918) | $799,900 | $724,900 | $630,000 | 21.2% | 13.1% |
| 2255151 | Essex Fells Twp. | $1,349,000 | $1,199,000 | $1,065,000 | 21.1% | 11.2% |
| 2244385 | North Plainfield Boro | $399,000 | $339,000 | $315,000 | 21.1% | 7.1% |
| 2264777 | Montague Twp.* (2816) | $230,000 | $207,000 | $182,000 | 20.9% | 12.1% |
| 2108070 | Chester Twp. (2307) | $465,000 | $399,900 | $368,000 | 20.9% | 8.0% |
| 2263242 | Alexandria Twp.* (1901) | $949,900 | $849,900 | $758,550 | 20.1% | 10.7% |
| 2269934 | Ridgewood Village | $769,900 | $689,000 | $615,000 | 20.1% | 10.7% |
| 2240543 | Franklin Twp.* (2708) | $369,000 | $299,900 | $295,000 | 20.1% | 1.6% |
| 2260575 | Berkeley Heights Twp. | $550,000 | $499,900 | $440,000 | 20.0% | 12.0% |
| 2258630 | West Orange Twp. | $524,900 | $465,000 | $420,000 | 20.0% | 9.7% |
| 2282532 | Chester Boro (2306) | $399,900 | $399,900 | $320,000 | 20.0% | 20.0% |
| 2251391 | Dover Town* (2309) | $349,900 | $299,900 | $280,000 | 20.0% | 6.6% |
| 2243924 | Clifton City (2502) | $385,000 | $328,900 | $309,000 | 19.7% | 6.1% |
| 2239362 | Stockton Boro (1923) | $418,900 | $398,900 | $337,000 | 19.6% | 15.5% |
| 2275742 | Montclair Twp. (1613) | $925,000 | $769,000 | $747,000 | 19.2% | 2.9% |
| 2269814 | Clifton City* (2502) | $779,000 | $645,000 | $630,000 | 19.1% | 2.3% |
| 2270640 | Vernon Twp.* (2824) | $340,000 | $309,000 | $275,000 | 19.1% | 11.0% |
| 2255654 | Harding Twp. (2313) | $2,595,000 | $2,095,000 | $2,100,000 | 19.1% | -0.2% |
| 2285491 | Jefferson Twp.* (2314) | $319,900 | $289,900 | $260,000 | 18.7% | 10.3% |
| 2263624 | Morris Twp. (2324) | $910,000 | $790,000 | $740,000 | 18.7% | 6.3% |
| 2268503 | Mahwah Twp.* (1133) | $549,999 | $449,999 | $449,000 | 18.4% | 0.2% |
| 2317407 | City Of Orange Twp. | $169,000 | $169,000 | $138,000 | 18.3% | 18.3% |
| 2297981 | Hillside Twp.* (2907) | $269,000 | $249,000 | $220,000 | 18.2% | 11.6% |
| 2299764 | Lake Mohawk Sparta | $1,100,000 | $1,100,000 | $900,000 | 18.2% | 18.2% |
| 2279131 | North Plainfield Boro | $150,000 | $125,000 | $123,000 | 18.0% | 1.6% |
| 2252034 | Clifton City* (2502) | $439,000 | $379,900 | $360,000 | 18.0% | 5.2% |
| 2304873 | Wayne Twp.* (2514) | $194,900 | $194,900 | $160,000 | 17.9% | 17.9% |
| 2311244 | Garfield City (1121) | $219,000 | $219,000 | $180,000 | 17.8% | 17.8% |
| 2266028 | Lopatcong Twp. (3015) | $219,000 | $189,900 | $180,000 | 17.8% | 5.2% |
| 2253628 | Lambertville City | $365,000 | $347,000 | $300,000 | 17.8% | 13.5% |
| 2277918 | Livingston Twp.* (1610) | $675,000 | $559,900 | $555,000 | 17.8% | 0.9% |
| 2276278 | Mendham Boro* (2319) | $789,900 | $695,900 | $650,000 | 17.7% | 6.6% |
| 2281010 | Clifton City (2502) | $509,000 | $419,000 | $419,000 | 17.7% | 0.0% |
| 2284841 | Springfield Twp. (2917) | $589,000 | $527,500 | $485,000 | 17.7% | 8.1% |
| 2270462 | Bernards Twp.* (2702) | $529,900 | $449,900 | $437,000 | 17.5% | 2.9% |
| 2236929 | Bethlehem Twp.* (1902) | $679,900 | $574,900 | $560,900 | 17.5% | 2.4% |
| 2270404 | Paterson City (2508) | $315,000 | $290,000 | $260,000 | 17.5% | 10.3% |
| 2298885 | Piscataway Twp. (2117) | $339,000 | $310,000 | $280,000 | 17.4% | 9.7% |
| 2287241 | Elizabeth City* (2904) | $224,900 | $224,900 | $186,000 | 17.3% | 17.3% |
| 2267245 | Maplewood Twp. | $1,148,000 | $999,000 | $950,000 | 17.2% | 4.9% |
| 2256493 | Clifton City* (2502) | $579,900 | $499,000 | $480,000 | 17.2% | 3.8% |
| 2262946 | Roxbury Twp.* (2336) | $595,000 | $500,000 | $492,500 | 17.2% | 1.5% |
| 2109379 | South Plainfield Boro | $439,900 | $439,900 | $365,000 | 17.0% | 17.0% |
| 2092266 | Paterson City (2508) | $235,000 | $235,000 | $195,000 | 17.0% | 17.0% |
| 2252280 | Pequannock Twp | $499,900 | $439,900 | $415,000 | 17.0% | 5.7% |
Below you’ll find a link to an Excel table that contains all GSMLS sales from 10/1 – 10/15. It includes Bergen, Essex, Hunterdon, Hudson, Middlesex, Morris, Passaic, Somerset, Sussex, Union, and Warren counties.
Sales Data (Large XLS Warning)
Caveat Emptor!
James
Keywords.
“even with double digit percentage reductions, these homes are still incredibly overpriced.”
Thanks for the data Grimy.
SAS
Let me know if the Excel data is useful.
jb
FYI, the excel data is all sales, including a number of “highballs”.
jb
We’re through the rough patch. The market’s really starting to pick up as the excess inventory has worked it’s way through the system and I expect to see moderate price increases through the rest of the year before things really pick up in the spring.
OK, I just said that to see what it would be like to be David Lereah. It feels icky, but if the NAR is interested, I might be available at the right price.
OK, I’ll bite, what is the story behind that first house?
Leffler Hill Road
1800’s home on 31+ acres.
jb
Love the new format and the Excel download is fabulous!
This Greedy Grubber somehow managed to escape the busted bubble — so many close calls with disaster:
17 Marion Ave, Short Hills
Apr 18, 2006 – $1,595,000 (MLS 2268791)
May ??, 2006 – $1,545,000
Jun ??, 2006 – $1,499,000
Jun 14, 2006 – Under Contract
Jul 21, 2006 – Back on Market @ $1,499,000 (same MLS #)
Jul 28, 2006 – Under Contract
Aug 05, 2006 – Back on Market @ $1,499,000 (same MLS #)
Sep 13, 2006 – Under Contract
Oct 12, 2006 – Closed @ $1,499,000
James,
The excel file is extremely useful. Thanks for the hard work. We all appreciate your effort. This site is the 2nd most web page I go everyday.
007.
James Bednar Says:
October 15th, 2006 at 10:41 am
FYI, the excel data is all sales, including a number of “highballs”.
jb
Ahhhhh…..that reminds me, I’ve got to go to the liquor store :)
Sellers Please Please do not be dreaming of a rebound this spring. It may happen for about 1 week then it caves down again. The Bear is hingary for greedy sellers. You will be hoodwinked by the Bear hosuing market. It ain’t coming back for a long time…..years.
Let the misery begin!
Regret remorse words to describe grubbing sellers i the spring. NO HOPE of rebound and reality sinking in in the spring.
NO REBOUND this spring will nail this thing into the gutter.
I want lots of misery. Man do I like buying things when they are plunging…..
BOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAA
Bob
Guide to “How to sell yoou house for any price you want”
I. Pick desired Price (have no raltioon to real value or somps whatsoever.)
II Price house att least 30% above that and put it on MLS listing.
III To month later drop the price by 5%
IV three month later releast the same price as in III but mention “highly motivated seller”.
V when negotiating with next buyer/agent mention that you are considering huge reduction. When they will come to talk to you say well I will do 15% reduction, and eventually agree on 25 (but do not say 25% say quater off the price).
VI You got your house sold at the price you wanted to.
VII post your experience here so we will know that not all idiots are gone yet.
Best website EVER! JB for President and all that. I finally have real and recent comps at my fingertips and comps are the #1 tool for any buyer looking to negotiate a deal.
So based on this data, of all the homes that sold in the first two weeks of October, 14% were originally priced “right”. (I know most on this board would disagree with that statement but “right” is defined as what someone, somewhere was willing to pay for the home.) That leaves 86% of homes with OLPs that were too high. Moreover, 22% of the OLPs were priced too high by more than 10%.
My focus is on Union County so for anyone else following these towns, here are some weighted average discounts to OLPs:
Berkeley Heights: 9%
Clark: No Data (I guess real estate is simply dead in Clark, NO sales!)
Cranford: 5.2%
Fanwood: 4.8%
New Providence: 6.6%
Rahway: 5.2%
Scotch Plains: 6.7%
Springfield: 12.1%
Summit: 7%
Westfield: 1.5%
Anyway to get the old MLS info for these lowballs or do you have to have full MLS access? I just wanted to get an idea why some of these places are getting such discounts of OLP. Are they just listed extremely high? or are they sellers that are motivated?
JB,
Do you have access to same data for South Jersey, or do you know another source? Specifically, I am looking for information on Burlington County. Thanks in advance!
SJ Observer
Not sure if this is kosher to post, but if you use this link:
(edited)
The last 7 digits are the MLS#, so you can look up other MLS #’s.
Not kosher, but if anyone is interested, email me.
jb
Grim – Excel data is great. Any chance you might expand the blog and start providing data covering central NJ (Monmouth Cty)? I suspect the same is happening there but at open houses today there appears to be a lot of denial.
Hi, I am interested in the link but can’t seem to find how to email you. Can you let me know how to email you?
Thanks in advance.
love the excel data!!!
I second the request for including Monmouth county since that’s where I’m looking to buy. Adding Ocean county would be great too but Monmouth is my main focus. Whaddya think? Of course since I’m not doing any of the work, my request is the easy part….
still_looking,
I can send it to you. email me at sheeps “at” verizon.net
Can someone post what the OLP, LP, etc. stand s for in the spreadsheet. Thanks! And great site!
What a professional! I commend you on your professionalism. You are actually giving us realtors a good image.
I’m an investor and realtor. My primary focus is in Newark and the surrounding neighborhood.
Prices have definetely dropped. But, in my opinion, they have dropped 5% but not more than 10%.
Now when people call me to sell their properties they already know that the market is soft. As a matter of fact I prime my client and tell them to price it below comps because as the market drops you want to be ahead of the curve. Otherwise the pricing will always be behind the curve.
Only true “sellers” are selling their property. All the tire kickers, who are trying to get top dollar are not getting viewings of their properties – let alone offers.
I have several properties for sale at http://www.georgekasimos.com . Now these are investment properties that I am talking about. In February I sold an 18 unit building for TOP DOLLAR.
My recent contracts are for a 3 family in newark which was originally listed at 359K. To view click here http://www.georgekasimos.com/364s12 . I actually had an offer on it for the full amount. But with the sellers concession the appraisal came in short. The seller agreed to a minor price reduction to come in under the appraisal. The property has passed all inspections and appraisals and all other minor issues and is due to close at the end of the month.
Bottom line. Concerning investment properties.
If the “numbers” are right then the property sells. The major thing that will affect investment property pricing will be interest rates.
I am very concerned with the market for my own reasons. I also am an investor who is converting a 21 unit building into condos (click her for more info http://www.georgekasimos.com/eocondo ) and am building 22 condos in West New York (www.georgekasimos.com/wnycondo).
Again Great Blog!
George, you have some kahonas. I like your style, though, cause your spelling is worse than mine. You maybe should get out of real estate and open a pork barbeque stand in Lakewood.
P.S….no offense meant there. Paaleeese don’t get all nutso.
George,
Just an FYI.
In the future, if you are going to post links to your own site, please run it by me first. Agent advertising is not permitted here.
James
I am from Monmouth County as well & would love data from the area. Just sold my Middletown house last year, after 7 yrs. Now we’re renting and waiting w/our 10mth old.
Grim,
Just got around to downloading the full spreadsheet. Great info and appreciate it. Is this something you plan on making available in the future as well?
All,
How can I see what house the MLS number refers to on these sales? If I go onto realtor.com, these listings are gone b/c they’ve sold. Would love to see if I can get a sense of where some of these listings are in town.
Grim / Anyone…for the last lowball…in Pequannock, can you give the street? Was it on Della Ave?
BB – Pequannock house was on Center Street off of Newark-Pompton Turnpike.
If someone can look up the following MLS for these sold in Maplewood, that would be great!
2298577
2289463
lina
2298577 – 22 Menzel
2289463 – 210 Hilton
Here’s another lowball Grim:
MLS 2281901
49 Pine Street, Millburn
May 24, 2006 listed @ $619,000
Dropped to $519,000
Closed @ $450,000 Oct 13th.
http://www.njmls.com/cf/details.cfm?mls_number=2638492&id=999999
Hello everybody! Just trying to get some honest opinions. Please feel free to comment.
Thank you!
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