From Business Insider:
Gen Z’s finances are already tanking, and we’re not even in a recession yet
Young Americans are still spending as the holiday shopping season ramps up, but they’re running out of money. With a recessionpotentially looming next year, it arguably couldn’t come at a worse time.
After falling in the last few years as borrowers paid down their balances, US credit card debt rose $38 billion between July and September of this year, per the New York Fed. The 15% year-over-year increase was the largest in over 20 years.
For now, credit card debt remain below pre-pandemic levels, and to some degree, an uptick was to be expected as consumers emerged from lockdowns and contended with higher prices.
The “real test,” however, New York Fed researchers wrote in a November blog post, is “whether these borrowers will be able to continue to make the payments on their credit cards.” Signs point to Gen Z, in particular, is starting to feel the squeeze.
While overall delinquencies remain below pre-pandemic levels, the percent of credit card payments 90 days or more past due rose to 3.7% in the third quarter, up from 3.2% the year prior.
While all age groups saw upticks in missed payments, the biggest increase came from 18 to 29-year-olds, whose 90-plus day delinquency rate rose to over 6%, though still below the roughly 9% rate before the pandemic took hold.
It’s not just credit card debt that young borrowers are struggling to make payments on either. Rising balances for auto loans also coincided with a spike in the auto delinquency rate.
“Is this simply a reversion to earlier levels,” the researchers wrote of the overall rise in missed payments, “with forbearances ending and stimulus savings drying up, or is this a sign of trouble ahead?”
First!! (…in mass shootings)
Wut the ?!!
After falling in the last few years as borrowers paid down their balances, US credit card debt rose $38 billion between July and September of this year, per the New York Fed. The 15% year-over-year increase was the largest in over 20 years.
The “real test,” however, New York Fed researchers wrote in a November blog post, is “whether these borrowers will be able to continue to make the payments on their credit cards.”
That sums it up… for all age groups. Observe the muppets on any line in any store from food to appliances and they’re using plastic, not cash. And no, it’s not debit cards they’re using. That CC debt figure is going to rise every quarter in 2023.
Multiple people were shot and killed inside a Walmart in Chesapeake, Va., on Tuesday night, the authorities said, the second high-profile mass shooting in the country in three days.
The deadliest mass shooting in the country so far this year was the massacre in which 19 children and two teachers were killed at an elementary school in Uvalde, Texas, on May 24.
It happened 10 days after 10 people were shot and killed in a supermarket in Buffalo.
And in Nov. 20: Colorado Springs, Colo. At least five people were killed and 18 injured in a shooting at an L.G.B.T.Q. nightclub. The gunman was injured and taken to a hospital
Exactly what grim was talking about. Read that end quote. Price gouging.
“The cost of shipping oil between the world’s ports is surging, providing a boost to tanker operators while continuing to inflate energy prices. Shipbroker Clarksons says average tankers have earned more than $40,000 a day for four months, their longest such stretch in 15 years. And the WSJ’s David Uberti reports the spot price for very large crude carriers recently surpassed $115,100 a day, an eleven-fold increase from last year. The soaring costs are running counter to drivers in the oil sector, where a gloomy outlook has dragged down crude to near its lowest levels of the year. But the fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is redrawing the world’s supply maps for oil. Tanker experts say many shipments now spend five times longer in transit to refineries or wholesalers than they would have before the conflict, straining capacity in the global fleet.”
“There doesn’t appear to be any practical upper limit on how high our rates can go.”
— Anthony Gurnee, CEO of tanker operator Ardmore Shipping
We just came through how many decades of race-to-the-bottom competitiveness, that created massive consolidation within industries, because economies of scale were the only way to drive increased competitiveness. Really, are we so surprised that this smaller group of less competitive market participants now wields significant power to increase pricing without alternatives?
We reap what we sow, big box mart can ramp up prices all day long and what alternative do you have now?
It’s like every industry has now embraced the Shkreli approach. Consumption patterns shifting due to the substitution effect? Well, let’s just raise the price on everything, well, so f*ck you consumer. You going to buy spam because the price of chicken is so high? We’re just going to raise the price of spam even higher, making wild margins along the way.
Sub all you want, we’re still going to win.
You are now seeing this across “house brands” in many stores today. The price on the “house brand” (aka generic) item used to be discounted – they didn’t have the marketing/advertising overhead – no frills packaging, we all understood why these cost less. Not so, not anymore, almost near parity. So now your left with taking that small pricing discount on the substitution, and don’t necessarily realize that the margin and profitability on that item is far higher.
grim,
We live in the suburbs of NYC; we’re prestigious here. Price is arbitrary. Bugaboo strollers, lilac French bulldogs, Yankees caps and artisan pizza are the standards. Now, go to Starbucks, get yourself a venti Caffè Misto and prepare for your Lexus December to remember shopping trip. Think of how nice that car will look with a Jennifer Behr Christmas bow attached to it!
Fast: Who is Jennifer Behr? Is she trending?
Just wanted to touch on this….NFT’s are no different than any other collectible from wine to baseball cards to art. NO DIFFERENCE WHATSOEVER, imho.
Libturd says:
November 22, 2022 at 2:18 pm
I’m not sure how much of that stuff really sold at those tremendous prices. My son told me, the fool’s game was to make it appear like you sold your NFT at a higher price than you paid to someone else. Though, that someone else was either another instance of you or someone else that you transmitted crypto (or anything else of value to). The more times the NFT traded hands, the more likely a a fool would purchase it as it looked like there was demand for it. Of course, once the fool owns it, only another fool would purchase it and this was unlikely because it has stopped switching owners (supposed).
Which is why people need to do their due diligence. Otherwise, they are simply gambling. Who is going to gamble with their entire future? Only a fool.
Drop the mic.
We are in trouble. You know how this ends….human nature is a bitch. They will eventually crash the entire economy on pure unobstructed greed.
grim says:
November 23, 2022 at 8:25 am
We just came through how many decades of race-to-the-bottom competitiveness, that created massive consolidation within industries, because economies of scale were the only way to drive increased competitiveness. Really, are we so surprised that this smaller group of less competitive market participants now wields significant power to increase pricing without alternatives?
We reap what we sow, big box mart can ramp up prices all day long and what alternative do you have now?
“We are in trouble. You know how this ends….human nature is a bitch. They will eventually crash the entire economy on pure unobstructed greed.”
I can’t wait.
Then I spend the rest of my life without a care about wealth for me and my son’s trust.
Not everyone is price gouging. At Goodyear now for the Black Friday deal, sport tires 235/45 R18 tires $21 more each since last time which was done in 2019. I am also getting $200 instant rebate and $100 mail in rebate, so all in cheaper than 3 years ago.
Boom & Bust, rinse & repeat.
One trend gives way to the next.
Lib,
Your reward is coming. Pay back for doing the right thing.
Ex,
It’s as simple as that. You know I am “cycles” disciple. It is the only guarantee when it comes to investing and the economy. Save during the good times to buy during the bad times. You can’t lose employing this strategy.
“Initial jobless claims 240K vs 225K expected –
The train wreck has begun, fasten your seatbelts. Monetary policy always works but with a lag; and it works in both directions (not just on the way up)!
#recession”
That could be noise.
The pain will come with the Xmas earnings reports. A Xmas with an incredibly difficult TTW comp to boot. I would not be surprised by the typical Santa rally either, which will fool a ton of people. Been charting the Nasty and we are approaching the top line of the downward channel. May be time to load up some shorts.
Every time Cathie Wood speaks I get scammy vibes. In that shes just spewing macro junk. Comparisons to 1918, EV cars = deflation, just top level recycled headline garbage. Every detailed question gets the same top level Cathie futureschpiel…
Her thoughts are just so worthless. It’s like she reads some articles off the web and regurgitates this with a side of her wacky parallels.
She said that EVs would drastically decrease oil consumption last year driving oil price down to $10 a barrel. The amount of ignorance just on that one view alone was enough to show how she knows absolutely nothing in math, logic, energy or markets.
Lib,
I am with you. Think we still have one more rally…
Cathie serves a purpose. She is one of those people you will love in a bull market, and hate during a bear market. Understand this.
No one is correct all the time, but she is successful.
Is she wrong about oil? No. Eventually, it is not going to be that important to the economy. Peak oil consumption is real. It’s inevitable. Every time we go through the boom and bust in the economy, it is one step close to oil becoming less and less relevant. When the economy busts, of course people are going to flee to oil and abandon investments in new energy and its infrastructure, but the minute it goes bull market, investments will return to take over oil’s position as the source of energy for our world economy.
Bottom line….Cathie is too far ahead of herself….she will be right eventually. She does see the future….she is good at that.
“Observe the muppets on any line in any store from food to appliances and they’re using plastic, not cash. And no, it’s not debit cards they’re using.”
Not disagreeing that ‘need based’ credit card use has exploded but with a nod to the discussion above of aggressive pricing I now use my credit cards for nearly every purchase as the ‘even-lib-would-be-proud’ deals I derive from that usage is real. Been a while since I’ve paid anything near list price at the pump, hotel room, etc. Recently as I made a not insubstantial donation to a charity and they took credit cards…I banged it on there, feeling kind of badly as I knew since it was a premium card they were going to get haircut a little over 4% but…
Given the explosion in prices crossed with generous credit card bennies more of that usage may be voluntary than customary.
Pumps – I am sending you a toaster for Christmas, be sure to use it while bathing. Really dude I am kidding about the toaster, but nothing will shock your belief. Kathy has lost a ton of money on crypto, there is NO FUTURE for it, it’s now radioactive, no more new investment money will be coming in to bail them out, any chance to get crypto futures legal in the USA is now dead. People are also leaving the various scam coin exchanges in droves. There are millions of people around the world trying to get their coin and cash away from these exchanges, but cannot due to FTX fraud and other exchanges stopping redemptions.
Kathy’s average price on COIN is like $250 a share. Stock it at $44 so she put in 2 Billion that is now worth what 300 million? Coin now has what 1/5 the revenue of a year ago, and lost 1/2 Billion last quarter, trading has dropped off a cliff.
It’s only a matter of time, the other players are begging for billions in bailouts and the only one who ponied up was Cathy by buying grayscale and even then it was paltry $1.5 million. The owner of Grayscale is looking around for a bailout too, they apparently asked Apollo Global Management for a $1 Billion dollar investment this week. That would be Digital Currency Group. The Winklevoss twins are in trouble too..
Looks like the music will stop really soon.
Listen to Jim Chanos today..see if it changes your mind…
https://omny.fm/shows/odd-lots/jim-chanos-on-crypto-tech-and-the-golden-age-of-fr#description
Is anyone interested in this world kickball competition from Qatar? I have as much disdain and indifference to it as a liberal has when they see an American flag. I assume the world embraced it because it cost nothing to find something round to kick around in an open piece of land. And, it’s simply a cultural thing. It’s not identifiable… we don’t call it a football, baseball, basketball or hockey match. It’s foreign and unfamiliar. I have the same feeling about F1. Seeing Emirates and Liqui Molly sponsorship signs is strange to the eyes. Sure, the youth love kickball here because they can participate quickly. That’s good. But the four sports mentioned above take time, practice and resources to play and master. I’ll pass on the kickball jousts.
Cathie should be locked up or at the minimum, be banned from investing other people’s money for her performance. I can only think of one other money manager, not involved in a ponzi scheme, that has lost more and it was pretty much from employing the identical strategy. Julian Robertson and the Tiger Fund. The only difference here is that he shorted the dot-com darlings too early. Had he lucked out, much like Cathie did, he would have been a market hero. Instead, like Wood, he’s now a market zero.
There are lots of strategies that work in the short-term when it comes to investing the market. But few that work in the long-term. We constantly make heroes of the short-term performers, but quickly forget the lessons they teach us when they all crash and burn. There have been only two people, who mange other people’s money, that work in the period of a lifetime. Peter Lynch and Eddy Elfenbein. Neither charged for their advice either and both were very public about their long-term investing strategies. I would throw old Warren Buffet into the mix, but he sort of lucked out into buying insurance companies (Geico mainly) before they exploded. After that, his performance has been average and that’s with all of the advantages having such a war chest provides. Though, he is 100% correct about buying when everyone else is selling and selling when everyone else is buying.
Ultimately, the market returns to value every time. They key is to load into growth stocks when the market crashes about once per decade. Then get out of the high growth/high P/E stocks when silly time occurs. Rinse and repeat. As an individual investor, if you are not disciplined enough to employ this strategy (and most are not), then diversification over time will provide you with an 8 to 10% return easy as pie. I’m not sure why everyone makes it so difficult.
The truth is, and I’ve said this here before on many deaf ears. Once you are reading headlines about it, it’s too late to invest in it.
Ed – Even here it’s big. The USA game Monday was at 2 PM. Impressive ratings, while most kids were still in school.
“The United States began its 2022 World Cup campaign on Monday against Wales, scoring nearly 12M viewers across Fox and Telemundo.
This included an impressive average of 8.3M viewers on Fox across broadcast and digital platforms as well as 3.4M viewers for the Spanish-language broadcast.”
Anecdotal my son’s team won their Travel Soccer division this week, we beat the sling blades from Colts Neck and well as some tough Tom’s River teams who usually dominate. To celebrate we are having a watch party Friday for USA vs England…
Juice,
How many crypto winters have we been through? You really think this time is different?
Fast: Football/ Soccer is a great game, you should open your mind to it a little more. Skill / Strstegy, almost artistic like in many respects. Perhaps, as Americans some don’t understand that there does not always have to be a winner. I know personally many Americans don’t understand the whole draw thing.
I also like the whole international aspect of it, and the team/ national rivalries. Better to meet on a football field and play out the old rivalries, then killing each other on the battlefield. Big game on Friday, US and England. I of course will be rooting for the US against the ancient enemy England! I was also rooting for Wales the other day, an aging team against a young American team. It was Wales first qualification for WC in 64 years. In the end it was a draw, although Wales came back strong in the second half.
“Really, are we so surprised that this smaller group of less competitive market participants now wields significant power to increase pricing without alternatives?”
I’ve noticed a rapid expansion of what I will call the ‘convenience factor’.
If you are hitting, say, the supermarket just to pick some things up and don’t have the time or inclination to shop it then yes you will pay full price which includes a heavy markup.
Otherwise, it seems to me for my shopping patterns at least I can mostly keep costs to where I would expect…
Few examples…
Soups, I eat frequently, would stock up on Progresso 10 for $10 deals. Ran out of a couple types that I like so just paid 3.37 per can for those this morning…big difference.
I love my Keens, have three pair of the same sandal in different colors. Oldest is nine years old (no kidding, great shoe). Really beat the hell out of them this Summer/Fall, went to replace they were $145 each. Felt like a lot, signed up to the website, got an email within a few weeks they were running sales. $90 each. Funny thing, did an email search to find my size and had the order from 2013, I paid $95 each back then…
Same thing dress sneakers, a pair of Cole Haan I had pre-covid for $90 were looking dodgy…signed up to a better designer’s website I liked within a month or so their $175 per pair were on sale two for $189…handcrafted leather.
Mind you, this is not some insane hours-a-day coupon hunting or clipping…simply not putting myself in a situation of must-buy-now and signing up for emails…
Bottom line, while recognizing inflation and opportunistic pricing exist a large swath of the population will still pay it…they’ll bitch and moan, but still pay it. In that environment of course companies are going to inflate the ask, they’d be foolish not to.
Whatever it crashes to, buy some bitcoin and ETH. Then eventually sell high. You won’t be sorry. This is not going away and is only beginning. It’s the digitalization of the economy. That is the future. Inevitable. Hence, why govt is trying to get digital coins now. They have tried to stop bitcoin to no avail….tried hard.
Juice,
For those who want to indulge in it… touché. It’s a good event for youth because they can step in and participate quickly. It teaches teamwork, competition and structure, all pluses. It’s too foreign for my tastes.
Bingo, why you should be loading up on cathie growth stocks when the crash finally bottoms. They will provide the highest returns IF YOU HAVE THE SELF CONTROL TO SELL AT THE TOP.
“Ultimately, the market returns to value every time. They key is to load into growth stocks when the market crashes about once per decade. Then get out of the high growth/high P/E stocks when silly time occurs. Rinse and repeat. As an individual investor, if you are not disciplined enough to employ this strategy (and most are not), then diversification over time will provide you with an 8 to 10% return easy as pie. I’m not sure why everyone makes it so difficult.”
“Not everyone is price gouging. At Goodyear now for the Black Friday deal…”
haha, yup, just got to this post. Same thing. Needed tires in the Spring, shopped them, best recommendation was from a buddy who for the same vehicle bought Tire Rack and had the tires shipped locally to a garage that mountedthem.
I undercut that pricing by a over $200 through a similar deal at Goodyear…got the discount, and still have the $150 digital credit card in some e-wallet somewhere.
And some of the best service anywhere.
Most kids in school were watching the world cup. My son was a hero because we have FUBO, so he can stream the games in 4K and our VPN allows him to get onto the much quicker faculty WIFI as the student WIFI was bogged down by everyone watching. Even in his Spanish class, the teacher allowed the class to watch the Spanish language broadcast and for 5 minutes, each student had to translate the play-by play.
With that said, the lack of discipline by the US players will again be their Achilles as was the case in their opener. This happens every time. You see poor kids from South America don’t care what you call their moms. Their opportunity is too valuable to them and their families. Most of the American kids are products of expensive soccer academies that masquerade as private schools.
Ed – Because of soccer my cousin’s son got a full ride scholarship to an NCAA Division I school. He is 5′ 7″ andmaybe 150 lbs soaking wet. Soccer is not for everyone….
“Whatever it crashes to, buy some bitcoin and ETH. Then eventually sell high.”
The moment either the US, Chinese or any other first world government mines their own digital currency, BitCoin and Etherium will be valueless. The U.S. already did some tests and they went well. Be warned.
DNA at 2.09 is the current value. It’s below current value. It’s beat to chit. Hard to lose at current pricing if the company survives to ride the next bull market. You aren’t even paying for future growth…just dirt cheap. Could it fail, sure, but it def has a great chance.
Could it go lower? Sure, the market is irrational on the way up and on the way down. Right now, it’s pretty easy money if you have the stomach for high growth.
Lib: Soccer/ Football will never be huge in the USA or have a huge fan base, for a multitude of reasons. Every few years you hear this will be the year for US soccer, they have been saying that since the Pele days, way back in the day. With no disrespect to Fast, a big part of it is that to many Americans it’s too foreign.
Interesting. Look what Eddy E just tweeted. I suppose a picture is worth a thousand words.
https://twitter.com/EddyElfenbein/status/1595293131620089856/photo/1
Pumps. You told us all to buy DNA closer to 3.
Enough already. If anyone listened to you, they would be standing on the corner with a scribbled-on piece of cardboard and a paper coffee cup.
Zach Wilson benched
Lib,
It’s a long-term game. It’s about establishing a position when times are bad to sell when times are good. It pays the highest returns for a reason, it’s not easy to buy when everyone is selling. It’s not easy to buy when everyone is bashing the company or asset. This is where the reward comes.
It’s funny, everyone jumping on board to buy Bitcoin at 60k, but no one wants it at 16k. Sums up long-term high growth investing. If you can’t understand this, stay far far away.
High growth is not meant for you. It’s all good. Is high growth bad for everyone? Nah, so many millionaires printed every cycle that sell high….and then repeat the cycle. You have to find what works for you.
I play high growth because I want to actually take a risk and get rich before I am old. I don’t want to sacrifice my entire youth to have a bunch of money I can’t even enjoy when I am 70. I am trying my best to make this next cycle my piggy bank. I am saving every dollar. I will be buying as much as I can at the bottom and on the way up. I hope by 8-12 years, I will not be thinking about money. If I lose, oh well, at least I tried. I will still have a great life, just won’t be f u money. If I win, I will be enjoying my 50s and 60s living it up. I have to take that chance.
What you don’t get is the power of compounding. I will be retired at 55. Maybe sooner. All without gambling on high growth stocks. If you save when you are young and continue to invest regularly, you won’t need to gamble to retire early.
What kind of cars do you and your wife drive? Honest question.
I have a 2012 Mazda CX-9, purchased new for 26K complete (9K below sticker). I also have a 2015 Mazda 6, purchased new for 32K complete. Both cars have around 130K on the odometer.
You?
Fast Eddie says:
November 23, 2022 at 10:49 am
“Is anyone interested in this world kickball competition from Qatar? I have as much disdain and indifference to it as a liberal has when they see an American flag.”
Good one, Ed! Soccer’s a fine sport — for women and children. But no athletic male should be wasting his time with it after the age of 12 or 13. And this country would be well served by every young man at least experiencing the real game of football — no better way of learning to pick yourself up and dust yourself off, than getting run into (or over) by a guy that’s bigger than you are. Meanwhile, this about sums up the difference between a professional soccer player (5’10” 141 lbs) , and a (relatively small) professional football player (6′ 232 lbs). Who would you rather watch?
https://www.newyorkredbulls.com/players/daniel-edelman/
https://www.giants.com/team/players-roster/saquon-barkley/
SmallGov,
Yep. It’s an ideal event and learning experience for kids going through their wonder years. I played soccer futbol in 8th grade and Freshman year. I played defense. My job was to steal the ball and kick it up to Adolfo and Rocco. That was it. I also played one year of football and nothing further because by sophomore year, as you alluded to, some of these guys were already 6 foot plus, 200 and something pounds and I wasn’t in the mood to take a beating. Football definitely builds mental and physical toughness. One year was enough for me… wanted to play a 2nd year but these guys were monsters.
Why do you guys waste your time engaging? He’s in DNA in the 3s…
His whole ‘analysis’ is nothing other than price action hindsight…first, price action is not analysis just observation and, secondly, even with the benefit of hindsight he still can’t get anything right.
CW is downright criminal and one of the worst managers out there. Why?
Criminal because no one disputes that high growth (high risk) assets return more than low risk assets. They have to. Think of it this way…if you could get the same return from JNJ as from a startup biotech why in the world would you ever invest in the startup? There is nothing revolutionary here, it is Investing 101. CW’s criminality is that she knows this yet presents the concept to a bunch of vulnerable, nube investors as something new and proprietary to separate them from their money for a management fee.
Why is she one of the worst managers out there? Because everyone including her knows that longer duration (high growth, unprofitable) assets are affected more negatively in tightening environments and lead on the way out. Investing 101 again, nothing revelatory there. So what does she do? Yesterday was the one year anniversary of the record high on NDX, it turned down almost to the day that Powell came out and said interest rate policy was changing, rates are going up. EVERYONE else jumped off the boat of long duration assets – Investing 101 and common sense – and the NDX went down nearly 30%. What did CW do? As everyone else was jumping off the sinking ship, heeding Captain Powell’s call from the lifeboat, she stayed on deck and kept inviting more people on board to paddle harder. And for icing on the cake she put them in stocks below the already rising water line….
Forget how badly her holdings have declined. Her analysis, her common sense is so extraordinarily bad as to be beyond comprehension. Remember TSLA going to 10k on the back of a robotaxi fleet in 2025? Their fucking truck from three years ago isn’t even out yet and everyone is shelving widespread commercial self drive. An unprofitable specialized call center is going to become a genomics company? BTC to $1mm in 2030?
Stupid, irresponsible, pull-numbers-out-your-ass fool…how about this? We’ll collectively start a fund and we’ll make a straight up binary, Euro trade with her. She matches our funds, we custody the total amounts, and if BTC is $1m in eight years she gets all the money. If it’s beneath we get all the money. Bet we could raise $200m on that….and win. Who’s in. I mean she literally makes stuff up. Custody of any amounts is necessary because a much more sure bet for 2030 is that CW won’t be in business any longer…
As a market professional for many decades watching her is like being a solidly educated Board certified surgeon in a teaching hospital walking into an OR to witness some unwashed Caribbean quack not even in scrubs standing over a patient ready to slice into their chest to remove their appendix. Without anesthesia.
Anyone wants a real view on DNA – actual company analysis coupled with trade strategy – LMK. I traded the shares from 10 to 13 a year ago and exited, picked shares up again earlier this year at about 2.00 reducing the cost basis to about a buck writing options around it, and then exited half that position earlier this year above 4.00 and final leg last week at 2.12.
re: Soccer
Here is my theory: in US women now tend to make household decisions. The next generation of mothers would have played soccer themselves through high level travel, rec and HS teams and they will drive their young boys away from dangerous game of football into soccer because of nostalgia. Fathers who played Football at teh highest level dont even put up a resistance with their wives becuase they actually agree. Its usually a one and done for that specific and rare gene pool. NBA on the other hand maintains that genetic pool of atheltic dominance. As society continusly becomes risk averse, football will sunset into boxing.
Small: You are entitled to your opinion of course but, your post reeks of that American arrogance that causes so many in the world to have negative/ unpleasant views of Americans.
As for a tough sport, I would suggest you take a look at Rugby, and if you are looking for skill and fast action pace and intensity as well as toughness , I would suggest you take a look at Hurling( Irish Sport). Far more exciting and intense then watching an unending baseball game. My view of course.
BRT, you out of your TSLA short? Either way, nice pull. Chanos Jr lol.
Director NYC says:
November 23, 2022 at 1:16 pm
“…women now tend to make household decisions…and they will drive their young boys away from dangerous game of football…”
You could certainly be right, but I think we might be skewed by our insular, blue-state view of the world. I wouldn’t be shocked to see football go the way of the dodo in a place like NJ. But I think football is very healthy in the south, and red states more generally. So even if women are steering household decisions down south, I don’t get the sense that they’re steering boys away from football any more than would have been the case in the past. In any case, I just hope we always have professional sports that allow us to see elite athletes doing things that us mortals could never do, and aren’t limited to watching kickball played by 140 pound twigs that look like they were just bar mitzvahed last month.
Mike Pompeo is a fat fuck.
Oh yeah, SBF is doing time…..
NY Times…
Crypto Firm FTX’s Ownership of a U.S. Bank Raises Questions
By Stephen Gandel
Nov. 23, 2022Updated 3:43 p.m. ET
Among the many surprising assets uncovered in the bankruptcy of the cryptocurrency exchange FTX is a relatively tiny one that could raise big concerns: a stake in one of the country’s smallest banks.
The bank, Farmington State Bank in Washington State, has a single branch and, until this year, just three employees. It did not offer online banking or even a credit card.
The tiny bank’s connection to the collapse of FTX is raising new questions about the exchange and its operations. Among them: How closely tied is FTX, which was based in the Bahamas, to the broader financial system? What else might regulators have missed? And in the hunt for FTX’s missing assets, how will Farmington get dragged into the multibillion-dollar bankruptcy?
The ties between FTX and Farmington State Bank began in March when Alameda Research, a small trading firm and sister to FTX, invested $11.5 million in the bank’s parent company, FBH.
At the time, Farmington was the nation’s 26th-smallest bank out of 4,800. Its net worth was $5.7 million, according to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation.
FTX’s investment, which according to financial regulators was more than double the bank’s net worth, was led by Ramnik Arora, a top lieutenant of the exchange’s founder, Sam Bankman-Fried. Mr. Arora was responsible for many of the much larger deals that FTX signed with Sequoia Capital and other venture capitalists that eventually failed.
Farmington has more than one crypto connection. FBH bought the bank in 2020. The chairman of FBH is Jean Chalopin, who, along with being a co-creator of cartoon cop Inspector Gadget in the 1980s, is the chairman of Deltec Bank, which, like FTX, is based in the Bahamas. Deltec’s best-known client is Tether, a crypto company with $65 billion in assets offering a stablecoin that is pegged to the dollar.
Tether has long faced concerns about its finances, in part because of its reclusive owners and offshore bank accounts. Through Alameda, FTX was one of Tether’s largest trading partners, raising concerns that the stablecoin could have yet-undiscovered ties to FTX’s fraudulent operations.
Before the acquisition, Farmington’s deposits had been steady at about $10 million for a decade. But in the third quarter this year, the bank’s deposits jumped nearly 600 percent to $84 million. Nearly all of that increase, $71 million, came from just four new accounts, according to F.D.I.C. data.
It’s not clear what FTX’s plan was for Farmington. Online, Farmington now goes by Moonstone Bank. The name was trademarked a few days before FTX’s investment. Moonstone’s website doesn’t say anything about Bitcoin or other digital currencies. It says Moonstone wants to support “the evolution of next generation finance.”
Deltec and Moonstone did not return a request for comment.
It’s unclear how FTX was allowed to buy a stake in a U.S.-licensed bank, which would need to be approved by federal regulators. Banking veterans say it’s hard to believe that regulators would have knowingly allowed FTX to gain control of a U.S. bank.
“The fact that an offshore hedge fund that was basically a crypto firm was buying a stake in a tiny bank for multiples of its stated book value should have raised massive red flags for the F.D.I.C., state regulators and the Federal Reserve,” said Camden Fine, a bank industry consultant who used to head the Independent Community Bankers of America. “It’s just astonishing that all of this got approved.”
Bad boys
The co creator of inspector gadget is somehow involved? Who is going to investigate? Mr. Magoo?
Yikes, three and a half million spectators at the parade tomorrow?
Pumpkin – Yes it’s different……..FTX like many of the Crypto scammers electronically created aka printed their own token and gave most of it to themselves and then called it collateral, then took out loans with it for real money or exchanged for other tokens, like bitcoin. Ponzi’s like these create a nothing but risk including to other coins like bitcoin because the collateral’s value never was or will be real. They create automatic risk as they produce nothing and never will and in the end it will all be worthless, yet they are claimed to be Billionaires!!!!
But it really is it’s different. Nothing they can do now will pass a law in this country to allow what they want even though they spent millions trying to buy the politicians. It’s radioactive now, might as well buy something real like acres of land in Futaba Japan. You can get a great deal there on acres of land that is for sure, but you might need put in a trust for you great, great great grandkids before it ever has any kind of value to anyone else.
Speaking of Thanksgiving, it was in 2008 when the pressure was on to arrest Bernie Madoff. A few months before the FBI got wind of the fraud at the time Bernie’s Chase account had over $5.5 billion in around June 2008, but by late November 2008 was down to $234 million as word got around to GTFO…The FBI and prosecutors only then decided to build a case and arrest him on December 11, 2008. Plenty of people got out before the Feds came in..
We shall see if that happens again, it’s only being reported now billions of real money are missing….
Lib,
You are def correct about the easy road to investing by starting young, reducing risk, and letting compounding do the work. Not saying you are wrong or anything. I am just taking on some hot sauce to try and take a risk to get to f u money.
In reality, do I need it? No. I am a simple man able to live like a poor individual with no problem whatsoever. I grew up not having much. So I have more right now than I ever imagined I would have growing up. Maybe I will just listen and let my aspirations go. It’s hard though, this competitiveness is what makes me go. That’s all life really is…. a competition with yourself.
I do believe I have wasted enough time analyzing markets and obsessing over them to know how this game is played now over the long-term. Short-term is not so easy, but long-term….it’s hard to lose if you understand how this all works.
You know it, and I know it. What matters: knowing the cycles and which stocks will perform and underperform each part of the cycle. Which companies are becoming leaders in the economy and which ones are dying.
So was the energy industry to blame for enron? This is no different than what happened with Enron. Bitcoin and ETH aren’t the problem, it’s the individuals. Hell, this is exactly why Bitcoin and ETH were created….to take human nature out of money and contracts. Have it all be based on LOGIC and MATH instead of human nature….
All FTX did was prove the founders of Bitcoin and ETH correct. People can’t be trusted.
Bitcoin and ETH will not die, and only grow. Take advantage of the blood in the streets for a long-term play.
Juice Box says:
November 23, 2022 at 5:44 pm
Pumpkin – Yes it’s different……..FTX like many of the Crypto scammers electronically created aka printed their own token and gave most of it to themselves and then called it collateral, then took out loans with it for real money or exchanged for other tokens, like bitcoin.
Your loss, brother….your loss. Then again, you don’t give a damn about long-term investing, so why even care about disruptive tech and high growth companies? They are volatile as f/k during the growth stages….but that’s why short term traders love to trade (manipulate) high growth stocks.
“Forget how badly her holdings have declined. Her analysis, her common sense is so extraordinarily bad as to be beyond comprehension. Remember TSLA going to 10k on the back of a robotaxi fleet in 2025? Their fucking truck from three years ago isn’t even out yet and everyone is shelving widespread commercial self drive. An unprofitable specialized call center is going to become a genomics company? BTC to $1mm in 2030?”
Pumps – Hate to repeat this again and well again and hopefully NOT again, but you are going to lose it all on crypto investments, limit your exposure it’s never going to be money. It’s pretty simple actually listen to what people have said for centuries about alternative currencies. Only the one with the best Military will ever win, but hey it’s different this time…..
Hit the books history teacher. You cannot sell shit in a box for too long before people think it stinks…
‘
I took half of the profits, the other half, I let run and got stopped out. I think at the very least, half of the cult hates Musk now, so they will sell. Musk is selling. I still think it’s ultimately going to lose 80% from here.
It’s not that simple, juice.
The door has been opened. There is no closing the door on bitcoin forever. The code has been written and put in place. There is no changing this. It’s been 13 years already….it’s not going away. Every time they say this is the death, and every time it rises to higher highs and higher lows. Every f’ing cycle. Being a history teacher, Ill take my chances with what history has taught me about this cycle multiple times.
Ftx scandal is a gift from god on lowering the price of bitcoin and ETH. Thank you for being greedy as f’k.
And juice, I sincerely appreciate your help. I really do. I just don’t see bitcoin dying at this point. Only getting stronger. If FTX combined with bear market didn’t collapse the price to zero, nothing will.
BRT
And when hydrogen cars become more common in a few years ev cars will be the Betamax and blockbuster video of this decade.
Hold,
Toyota position says you might just be absolutely correct.
Now, does this mean Toyota is undervalued?
Happy Thanksgiving All!
“Every tech product you use came out between 2000-2010. Nothing was built from 2010-2020. The culture was so broken. PMs, MBAs, SJWs, and entitlement.
But the culture is changing. Wild things will be built in the next 10 years. Are you in or out?”
https://twitter.com/realgeorgehotz/status/1595677280449089536?s=46&t=mnFJdpYqtYEnEdsIMnhJSw
Pumps
Hyundai has a hydrogen suv for sale in California. We wouldn’t have to spend trillions upgrading the grid. Hydrogen cars use much smaller batteries than ev and I read 99% of the battery can be recycled.
https://www.hyundaiusa.com/us/en/vehicles/nexo
Happy Thanksgiving, all!!
My cousin converted his VW diesel hatch to run off propane in Poland.
“I took half of the profits, the other half, I let run and got stopped out. I think at the very least, half of the cult hates Musk now, so they will sell. Musk is selling. I still think it’s ultimately going to lose 80% from here.”
Smart, congrats.
Don’t know about 80% down but, yeah, the speculative balloon continues to deflate and TSLA will continue to be caught up in it.
Life is a bell curve…throw all assets under that curve with the most speculative ones – virtual real estate, NFTs, crypto coins, SPACs, CW shitcos, iBought real estate, wildly overpriced opcos – distributed along the far left hand side of the curve and you can see how the Fed’s normalization of the economy is progressing from left to right under the curve sequentially blowing up the excesses. At some point when they start getting to the fat part of the curve they will stop.
We are coming out of peak bubble pricing of assets driven by monetary policy that has never before existed in the modern history of this country…so until and unless we see these highly unlikely conditions again – primarily zero interest rates – the assets on the left hand side of the curve will be effectively gone forever. Same as 2000-01.
https://www.flickr.com/photos/danagraves/16797185841
Happy Thanksgiving to All!
Spending the holiday in Columbus. Ohio( actually Powell Ohio which is a suburb of Columbus). With two of grandkids, daughter and SIL, plus my daughter’s friends for a total of 12.
Takes 8.5 hours from my house to here, so we are here for 10 days, it is tough when we leave here and they have just been here 1 year. My SIL’s boss jumped out of a building earlier this year ,you may have heard about it(Bed Bath and Beyond).
My SIL originally wanted that job, was well qualified but was too young(41). so now he is an AVP for Safelite.
So now we get to travel to Ohio 3/5 times a year, its all good Christmas will have us all together in NJ. Life is GREAT!
Sounds good, Jim. Enjoy the day!
Happy Thanksgiving to all. Enjoy the day with family/friends.
Jim,
As you likely know, the closer you get to kick off, the bigger the discount on tickets. If you have never been to the Horseshoe, give it a shot. Sat is as big as it gets. Just don’t wear maze & blue and don’t jaywalk as either one will get you into serious trouble and anywhere near the campus, the latter could get you arrested.
Check out Short North and German Village. Be a considerate driver, Ohio isn’t NJ and some of the garden state’s laws do not apply in Ohio… Powell is great.
Great town Columbus and yeah huge day tomorrow even if you are not a fan of either team. Going to be crazy there…
The ‘villages’ of Columbus are pretty neat…if you’re anywhere near Italian Village check out a shack called Katrina’s for a funky little brunch and N High St has some nice shops, eating/drinking establishments. There’s a really cool little gallery on the East side of the street that has amazing hand blown glass and ceramics. Got some unique Christmas ornaments and coffee cups there…cups were so nice when I got them home I’ve displayed them not used them lol. Enjoy.
Hydrogen gas today is refined from natural gas. It is far from ever being carbon neutral.
Steam-methane reforming is an endothermic reaction, have to put in allot of heat at high pressure to extract the H2 gas. It is no way green, then to put it in a car and make electricity? Waste of energy for sure, to drill, transport, reform and then store and transport it again.
CH4 + H2O (+ heat) → CO + 3H2
Happy Thanksgiving everyone!
Gobble gobble!
Ann Arbor is a whore.
Lived in Columbus for a few years, my brother still does. It’s changed a lot since I lived there. Anything north of Worthington was still farmland mostly, not anymore. Fun town.
Powell used to have a funky little diner that was fantastic, just west of 23, doesn’t appear to be there anymore.
I went to The Game in ‘06, when it was 1 vs. 2. I checked out tickets for Saturday last week. Nosebleeds were running $900 so I passed.
O-H