From Marketwatch:
Housing starts jump to 4-month high
U.S. home builders broke ground on more new homes in September, but took out the fewest building permits in five years, the government said Wednesday.
New construction of homes unexpectedly increased 5.9% in September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.772 million, the Commerce Department estimated.
It’s the first increase in housing starts since May and the highest level since June. Starts are down 18% in the past year.
Building permits, meanwhile, fell 6.3% to a five-year low of 1.619 million annualized. Permits have fallen eight months in a row and are off 28% in the past year. Permits are considered a leading indicator not only of housing but of the economy as a whole.
Starts were much stronger than expected, but permits were much weaker.
Economists were expecting housing starts to fall about 2% to 1.64 million annualized, according to a survey conducted by MarketWatch. They expected permits to fall about 2% to 1.70 million.
August’s rate of housing starts was revised higher to 1.674 million from 1.665 million previously reported. Permits were revised slightly higher in August to 1.727 million from 1.722 million
Starts of single-family homes rose 4.3% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.43 million, while permits for single-family homes fell 6% to 1.21 million, the lowest since October 2001.
From the Dept. of Commerce:
NEW RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION IN SEPTEMBER 2006 (PDF)
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of
1,619,000. This is 6.3 percent (±1.0%) below the revised August rate of 1,727,000 and is 27.7 percent (±1.3%) below the
September 2005 estimate of 2,240,000.
Single-family authorizations in September were at a rate of 1,207,000; this is 6.0 percent (±1.0%) below the August figure
of 1,284,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 342,000 in September.
…
Privately-owned housing starts in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,772,000. This is 5.9 percent
(±8.9%)* above the revised August estimate of 1,674,000, but is 17.9 percent (±7.0%) below the September 2005 rate of
2,158,000.
Single-family housing starts in September were at a rate of 1,426,000; this is 4.3 percent (±8.4%)* above the August figure
of 1,367,000. The September rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 314,000.
Wow, thank God the slide is over. Now my house can start appreciating again at 15% per year. For a while, I thought house prices were going to dive. My advice is to buy now or else you’ll be priced out forever. And besides, they’re not making anymore land.
Any thoughts on why startes are up, are the buildes just going to build until they are completely exhausted.
Will nto continued building just put more pressure on their existing stock of unsold homes.
for HBs with strong balance sheets (are there any?) this could be an opportunity to crush their competition. other than this, I can’t see any reason for the uptick
Doesn’t a permit precede a start? Did permits go up in July or August?
The houseing slow down has bottomed out!
You bubble heads make me laugh…
Housing always does appreciate, you are all idiots for renting.
I own and you will always rent from me! Losers!
TruthDenial is not just a river my friend, sound like you are really scared, must be some clueless person who recently purcahsed, or sucke out all of theri equity.
Oh well you will learn grasshopper they always do;run along now.
well, all I know is that the price of a house has not come down like you people say they are and they won’t!
You are all hoping for a crash that the fed will never let happen! Idiots!
I guess grims site will be gone in a few months, he wasted $10 on a domain name. Sucker!
Truth: Grasshopper The prices ar already coming down take a walka round your town, look at the asking prices, vs. last years closed sales prices, and this is just starting.
I know you are scared, I know you screwed up, but Grasshopper the FEd cannot do any thing abou this, you say that, but have no idea what youa re talking about, explain it to us, you cannot, because you have no idea, it just sounds good.
We are not idiots Truth, the only idiotsa re the ones who have paid the prices they paid over the last 3 years or so, adn I suspect you are one of them.
*You are all hoping for a crash that the fed will never let happen!*
do you even know what the fed does?
I don’t understand why sellers are getting all excited. More construction equals more inventory. Remember home builders are doing 30% profit on new home sales .. whch means they can cut list price of upto 20% and still make a nice profit. If i was Gary or Truth, i would find the nearest bag holder and get out if i still can. At 35K plus inventory, i doubt if anyone can get out without shattering thier dreams of a 300% gain.
New home being built at rate of 1772K.
New home being sold at rate of 1050K.
Who is going to buy the 700K plus new homes on top of the present record inventory???
all I know is that you are saying the prices are coming down, where, what, 10%….WOW!
My house is still worth over 400,000.00
Take another 10%, big deal, it will go back up, and it will still be worth more after 20%.
If that is the savings you are waiting for, BIG DEAL!
It is still nothing!
“Housing always does appreciate, you are all idiots for renting”
Truth,
You are great theatre!!!!!!!!!! Love your posts!! The int from my re profits pay for my rent. I get to keep my principal. If you have a decline, like 1988, you lose approx 20% of your equity. You better hope it is only as bad as 1988. Unfortunately, for you, that is your best hope.
I would like to put this market in context using months of supply as the indicator. The Union County towns I am following currently have 6 to 8 months of supply of homes for sale as of 2Q 2006. This compares to 2 months of supply in 2Q 2003. My question is, what is a “normal” # of months of supply in a stable market. What would the number likely be if this was 2Q of 1997 or 1998? Is 8 months supply really a lot or is that just the “normal” running average when markets are stable?
Dear v,
I believe it’s called sarcasm.
Truth,
“Take another 10%, big deal, it will go back up, and it will still be worth more after 20%.
”
There you go. Contradicting yourself. I looks like you are not confident about the bottom you predicted couple of hours back.
Regards,
“Analysts less bearish on housing than us will doubtless proclaim the starts numbers as evidence that the worst is over, but even a cursory glance at the awful permits numbers should disabuse all but the most incurable optimists of that notion,” said Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics in Valhalla, N.Y.
A separate report on housing conditions in the U.S., also released Wednesday, fell short of expectations.
Building permits dropped 6.3 per cent to an almost five-year low of 1.619 million, on an annualized basis, well below consensus targets of 1.71-million. Permits have fallen for eight straight months and have lost 28 per cent in the past year.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20061018.wushousingstarts1018/BNStory/Business#
“Ethan Harris, chief U.S. economist at Lehman Brothers, said most housing markets only need “small price concessions.” But in markets that left a streaming rocket trail “getting back to normal will be more long and painful,” he said.
Harris said prices in the hottest regions and “almost every city in California and Florida” are overvalued by as much as 40 percent.”
http://today.reuters.com/news/articlenews.aspx?type=reutersEdge&storyID=2006-10-18T190435Z_01_N12316315_RTRUKOC_0_US-ECONOMY-HOUSING-HEALTH.xml&pageNumber=2&imageid=&cap=&sz=13&WTModLoc=NewsArt-C1-ArticlePage2
“The houseing slow down has bottomed out!
You bubble heads make me laugh…
Housing always does appreciate, you are all idiots for renting.
I own and you will always rent from me! Losers!”
Is this guy serious? He can’t be serious.
Some kid just trying to get peoples goat.
SAS
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