From Yahoo Finance:
Housing expert: ‘Convincing price rebound to come next year’
Home prices are expected to decline slightly this year before growing again in earnest in 2024.
“We had been among the more bullish outlooks for this year for home prices, and we’ve taken our home price growth forecast and revised it so we expect home prices to slip for the year, but less than 1%,” Danielle Hale, Realtor.com’s chief economist, told Yahoo Finance Live (video above).
“We’ll start to see home prices rebound more convincingly in 2024,” she added.
Still, the pace of growth will be nothing like sellers or buyers have seen in a while. A normal pace, that is.
For instance, 117 economists and housing experts polled by Zillow expect home prices to increase at an annual rate of 3.5% until 2027 after bottoming out this year. That would be a more stabilized trend last seen in the 1990s before the housing boom and bust of the 2000s and follows the rapid run-up in housing values during the pandemic.
“A return to more normal growth would be welcome after the rollercoaster ride that home prices have been on lately,” Jeff Tucker, Zillow’s senior economist, said in the survey release.
…
The annual return on single-family homes reached nearly 13% between 2021 and 2022 — with the median US single-family home selling at $373,700 in June of 2021 and $420,900 in June 2022, according to data tracked by the National Association of Realtors.
That’s a sharp contrast to so-called normal growth. For instance, the median price of a single-family home grew 63.5% from $85,400 in 1987 to $139,600 in 2000, or an average annual increase of 4.8% over those 13 years, according to data provided by the National Association of Realtors.
Although housing prices are declining versus last year, they have been up month over month for the last three months. For instance, the latest S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller US National Home price index showed prices dropped 0.2% annually in April but increased by 0.5% compared with March.
Much of that increase is because of an imbalance in supply and demand. The number of previously owned homes on the market was at a record low in May, which helps to keep prices elevated, according to the National Association of Realtors.
First
Thanks to everyone for responding on yesterday’s societal discussion. Interesting comments and thoughts, best of this forum.
Phoenix, keep posting. You’ll keep me current (started using my thumbs on my phone last night, not up to my old Blackberry speed but we’ll get there).
I would offer in the context of being ‘normal’ (viewed as mathematical distribution, and even subjective and judgmental) your co-workers are…maybe not. Look at your description, below…That is a level of sociopathy hard to replicate. Surprising, as that level discontent and aggression is most usually present in people under extreme duress, and I thought nursing offered younger people (especially women) fairly good opportunity these days.
Watch your own mental health. Sometimes some people are just toxic. And best avoided or tuned out to the degree possible….
“They do judge the older population. It’s amazing how much fun you can make of someone with one picture/video and a simple snapchat to the entire staff where you work. They are experts at mock bullying.
Seen it hundreds of time. They have probably done me as well…
Also how batting one’s eyes, or acting sweet for a minute, can get physicians to buy 20 young ladies a drink after work-or lunch, or anything else they want.
They can manipulate so well…to manipulate and get what they want, be it time off, or whatever.
Communicate, collaborate, then execute with swift efficiency. Most of the older generation don’t even know what hit them…”
“We’ll start to see home prices rebound more convincingly in 2024,” she added.
Not here. Multiple bids over ask like vultures fighting over carrion. NYC metro is like the sun; anything within its radius is consumed by price gravity. Never has the term “priced out forever” been so close to the truth.
Prices: should go up, especially in the NYC metro area, they are too low, when you consider all the wealth and talent here. And when the Fed starts to cut rates in the Fall as some still expect, then prices will go even higher.
Left: I was under the same impression with nurses. I thought it was an in demand field and highly paid. Phoenix presents another side. Perhaps, some went into the field because of the high pay, only to find they don’t like it.
Listed one of my parents houses, first one up.
Zero DOM, every offer over ask, under contract, waived inspection (other than structural).
Interesting the number of offers that included appraisal gap flexibility – apparently this is a big thing now – willingness to pay x dollars over appraisal amount, should the property appraise under offer price.
More than one sight unseen offer as well.
ADP blowout number…
Just under 500k
“testing testing”
– The most common post on Threads.
Unreal. Really is roaring 20s 2.0. They are trying to hold it down and they can’t. Imagine if people had animal spirits as opposed to recession on their minds…would be downright scary.
grim says:
July 6, 2023 at 8:26 am
ADP blowout number…
Ten 403.3 whoa nelly. At minimum we go 410.
FYI. We’re we just sitting at 380 forever
I we blast through 407-408, and head back to October’s 425, you just watch the shock wave.
Crazy ADP. Especially, considering all of the layoffs we’ve been reading about. Nonetheless, me thinks the FED is far from stopping. And cutting? Wishful thinking unless the shit hits the fan, which appears less and less likely to occur.
Great convo yesterday lead by LW. It’s something I find myself constantly thinking about as one of the last members of the generation that was so sold on conformity. So many rights of passage to complete. So many of life’s lessons taught by our parents who themselves were taught by the generation that had to live through the Great Depression. Think Covid sucked? I don’t think a day went by when my great grandmother and grandmother were alive that they didn’t remind me about it and the importance of savings to get through the next one.
The conundrum that I think LW is facing (and which Gary often alludes to) is one in which all members of our generation are now facing. That is, do we hold onto the oft-appearing backwards conventions that defined us and continue down the selfish path honed by the Boomers, resulting in an excellent retirement for themselves and a giant fuck off, for everyone else? Or do we recognize the oft-asinine conventions that defined us as detrimental to future societal gains, especially when it comes to sharing the wealth and doing the “right” thing?
As I send my older son off to college in another seven weeks or so, I can’t believe how much I have learned from him and his generation. And you are all correct about the use of the word, “normal.” But one must look even deeper. Our generation sees it as a word to use or not use. For Gator Jr., it’s not a word at all. Everyone is normal. Even his autistic younger brother and his teacher with the purple hair and the question mark tattoos all up and down his body. It’s taken me nearly two decades to throw away the chains that bound me to my past flawed thinking. I used to think I was the superior person for keeping my body tattoo-free. Thinking, I won’t look stupid like all of the wrinkling rotting bananas in the 55+ retirement community a few decades from now. But I was in Tahoe when there was a tattoo convention about seven years back, and was absolutely blown away by both the artistry and the thinking of many of the attendees. I prejudged them terribly. Maybe, I’m the idiot for leaving my canvass blank? I still cringe at the site of bad tattoos. But I no longer judge the bearer. To each their own.
Quite honestly, “To each their own,” is truly the theme of the current generation. Some of us would benefit greatly by adapting to it. “Freedom,” is the current buzzword that is being bandied about by the politicians and their pundits on the right. Freedom is defined as; the power or right to act, speak, or think as one wants without hindrance or restraint. They all have the right to speak and think as they want to already. What they choose to ignore is the right to ACT freely. You see, no one is forcing you to be someone or something you don’t want to be, on the Left. Just accept, “To each their own.” That is true Freedom. That is what once made America special. Want to get back to American exceptionalism Gary? Accept change. America always represented being different. Being able to practice whatever one chose. A society whose freedom of thought and action bread entrepreneurship and invention. You see, it’s not the blind deference to a flag which makes you more American. It’s your willingness to accept the freedom that built this great country (and yes, there some warts).
I put my younger son on the transport van for extended school year at 730am in this morning. It’s a new company from the one who drove him back and forth during the regular school year. The driver, Roberto, and his aide did not speak a word of English. But by their smiles and attempts to communicate with me when I asked the simple question of when I should expect them to drop the D back home, I knew I didn’t have to worry. He texted me his phone number, prior to arriving and arrived ten minutes early. Sure, I could lament the days when immigrants focused on learning English over anything else. Or I could argue for closing the border so I could end up with English speaking transport drivers (and most likely much higher taxes to pay for it), but I am well past those days. My older son has taught me the fallacy of that thinking. To each their own. To each their own.
As an aside. I am right handed, I use the thumb on my right hand and index finger on my left. WTF does that signify? I am oldest GenX also.
You could be a very productive hitchhiker.
Nice grim. Congrats.
Chi, yeah, saw the rates. Liesman had an interesting take on ADP, that much of it could represent continued jobs normalization coming out of the COVID policies, basically a whole bunch of delivery drivers moving to hospitality for instance. In which case he drew the conclusion that a higher number may actually not be inflationary…
On that last point – get two shells in your O/U chamber – big month for base effect. While the Fed doesn’t pay much attention (Joe Market might) the headline CPI is what currently, 4.0%? A 0.2% monthly will have you with a 2 handle on the twelve month…even a 0.4% will get you a three handle IIRC….
According to the ADP report, the bulk of the new jobs were in the consumer facing service sector. Meanwhile, Wall Street and tech companies and accounting and other financial companies are laying off. Madness in the real estate market continues, multiple bids over asking, and as Grim noted, people apparently don’t care about appraisal values.
Also employment used to be viewed as a lagging indicator, so is this the final surge, or more going forward. None of it makes sense.
It’s something I find myself constantly thinking about as one of the last members of the generation that was so sold on conformity.
How ironic was it that the high school cliques that dominated the 80s and 90s were almost always defined by excruciatingly high conformity. There really wasn’t any individualism, just more variations of conformity.
We had the polish punk contingent in Clifton. I remember getting into an argument one day about non-conformity with one of my punk friends (who had a big mohawk).
I ended the argument with, “If you really wanted to be a non-conformist, you’d wear a suit and tie to high school.”
Hell, “Breakfast Club” would have made no sense as a movie otherwise.
I’m way too busy with work to start now because I know my day would be consumed if I respond to all of this. You want to be totally free? Make up your own rules as you go along? Live and let live as you see fit? Destroy the mold for everything? Be sad and angry when you feel like? Demand equal wealth all around? Confiscate assets? All of the above and then some? Have at it! But don’t weep in a windowless, prison cell when the enemy marches through our soil unabated because everyone decided to conform to THEIR version of how one should live. It’s easy to be free… it’s a real fucking sacrifice to sustain that freedom. Debate all you want here, it’s an open forum. The enemy’s eating their popcorn as they read along.
Stu: I am literally almost spot on the continuum, but on the other side of the fence. I have a rising junior in high school and he is more conservative than me.
I grew up with a super liberal north shore Jewish family, among Koreans, HK, Taiwanese, Szechuan, Pakistanis, Russians, West Indians, Ecuadorians, Turkish et al.
Most of my mom’s family are “creatives” that are emotionally damaged, and incapable of showing the discipline and executive function to sustain success.
What I will maintain is three very important opinions.
The internet has exposed everything to everyone and has created a primordial soup available to any huckster willing to rouse the worst impulses of everyone.
“To each there own” and “freedom”, but stay out of my face. You exhaust me is my response. Do what you want, but then ACCEPT the consequences, shut up and fuck off.
This is America, the greatest country in the history of the world. There are people who took shortcuts and had advantages, but mostly don’t deny the fundamental functioning of this system. It works. If you are mentally lazy enough to listen to the above “hucksters” and take their messages to heart, then you have been sold a bill of goods. Fuck off.
The gateway tunnels aka ARC tunnel to replace the old train tunnels finally got some federal money after decades of asking.
Looks like former Govenor Christie was correct. Our share looks to be about 5 Billion, NY share 5 Billion and the feds are kicking in 6.9 Billion without figuring in cost overruns.
Does it really take over 10 years to dig two train tunnels?
“The federal government is on track to give $6.88 billion, the most ever awarded to a mass-transit project, for the construction of a second rail tunnel under the Hudson River to New York City, Senator Chuck Schumer said Wednesday.
Mr. Schumer, the Democratic majority leader from Brooklyn, said he intended to announce the grant in the city on Thursday. A White House aide confirmed that the Department of Transportation planned to notify the tunnel project’s sponsor, the Gateway Development Commission, of the decision this week.
The two-tube tunnel is part of Gateway, a massive infrastructure project that is widely considered the most important in the country. The new tunnel would supplement a troublesome pair of single-track tunnels that opened in 1910 and have been steadily deteriorating since Hurricane Sandy flooded them with salt water in 2012.
The federal pledge will allow Gateway’s planners to start seeking companies to construct a tunnel parallel to the deteriorating ones, a project that is expected to cost more than $16 billion before it is completed in 2035. Gateway’s planners still hope to receive more funding from other federal programs to raise Washington’s share of the total cost to at least half.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/06/nyregion/nyc-penn-station-tunnel-gateway.html
BTW. This cocaine in the WH thing is very confusing. The Secret Service knows exactly what happened. This is either Hunter Biden or someone planting evidence. Either way, I am stunned by the corruption of this Administration. The naked arrogance of all of it. Wow. Trump is a muddling unwashed cretin, but Biden et al. is high quality white collar crime, naked ambition and quality Southern European style corruption. Biden has to be half-cocked by definition (and unintelligent), because his son needs to be sequestered away from free society for the good of the country.
I consider myself a moderate/ centrist, fiscally conservative, socially liberal, however that is defined today, and I don’t define that as anything goes. If people wish to identify as this or that, fine, do what you want, but leave the rest of us alone. That’s my problem with the extreme left, the live and let live mantra seems to only be applicable if it’s on their terms.
As for this country, we are in a lot of trouble I believe, as the hucksters on both sides are focusing on divisive often times non- sensical issues. And yes Fast is right, freedom is not free, and the radicals on both sides want to take that away. I truly wish we had a 3rd party alternative to what we have now.
Shingle is now up next door and it just hit MLS this morning. There were a few drive bys since last night as well as realtors were given a preview the other day.
Listing is $975,000… a bit much in my opinion but if they get that I am selling too. House was renovated and expanded but that was literally 20 years ago.
I will go live in a basement apartment until it all blows up. Highest price in the development has been $999,999 but that was a complete renovation.
We are the wolf. What I said last week…find me an alternative better than America. Jamie Dimon speaking the truth.
https://twitter.com/finalarbiterr/status/1676385814597578755?s=46&t=0eaRjeKWHSIY8WCyPT4KMg
I’d love everyone to live by “to each his own” and liberty. In both thought and action. Provided people aren’t violating one another’s rights, nor property. What worries me is that the left tends to only worry about freedoms of expression, but have no concerns about using the government to expropriate and redistribute property, and to excessively regulate all economic action well beyond what the protection of rights would cover. That’s not a “to each his own” mindset. And then some on the right will talk about liberty, while trying to use government to regulate sex, abortion, speech, excessively control immigration, etc. Which also is not a “to each his own” mindset. (And in practice, they also are not in principle against expropriation and redistribution, but merely have different targets.
This is not new to this generation BTW. I think the left has reduced its former claimed commitment to free speech in the latest generation, as they have now decided that “language is violence” when someone claims they are emotionally injured, which then also got empowered by the government-led “anti-disinformation” movement. And the right has increasingly dropped their wing of economic libertarians and moved into big government nationalism, with a side of religious-inspired government policy.
The result – the US continues to drift further from its ideal of individual rights that apply to both thought and action, and I don’t see a philosophical/cultural foundation for that to improve in the near future.
Meanwhile fascism continues to grow globally – China being the foremost example. But it grows internally as well, led by the “rule of experts” who declare emergencies to justify their “emergency” powers. Covid, global warming, foreign interference in elections via “disinformation”, there will always be something from now on, now that people allow it.
Chi – Hunter was taking bumps on the WH balcony during the 4th fireworks..
Proof? Well here it is right on twitter…. (I don’t think so BTW)
https://twitter.com/DC_Draino/status/1676665397771227152
The only thing I want to know is for a guy with 24 x7 protection how does he meet with his dealer? Perhaps his LA lawyer who paid his million dollars in back taxes and is currently paying his rent is also funding his habit.
Don’t let politicians and headlines use fear to make you think America is not great.
“there will always be something from now on, now that people allow it.”
I agree with all of you. And the problem continues to be that WE ALLOW IT.
On a more serious topic, any of you watching Platonic on Apple+?
Truly the funniest show I’ve seen on television in years.
Juice: And when it all blows up, people will scream the Fed has to do something, and the economy will be destroyed. The home buyers who purchased recently at over inflated prices , now coupled with higher interest rates, will cry it’s not their fault, and they did not know, and blah, blah, blah, just like during the last financial crisis/ housing bust. And they will be rescued. Meanwhile, the people that played by the rules, get nothing. How can we possibly say America is still great?
Everything you said was spot on. Add to your list of growing internal fascism the increasing corporatism or crony capitalism at the state and federal levels.
No One says:
July 6, 2023 at 10:17 am
3B,
Exactly. America is about exploiting moral hazard. As Joyce pointed out, increased corporatism and crony capitalisms are as strong as ever. Better to behave like them than to try to beat them.
Lib; But hey, America is great! Just believe that, and let the politicians and the vested interests continue to destroy this country.
No One: Agree and if you disagree, you are suspect on both sides, and so the vast majority of people stay silent.
“How ironic was it that the high school cliques that dominated the 80s and 90s were almost always defined by excruciatingly high conformity.”
Agree, with the notation that some of the ‘free’ thought these days seems to be highly conformed into verticals, albeit digital. Clique is a clique, I guess. Although collectively today’s cliques seem to start with the conclusion of “The Breakfast Club” in terms of overall tolerance.
Lib, really nice writeup…although rather than go generational I will maintain that in assigning ’cause’ for lack of societal gains for newer generations the source is more political, and particularly on the comfortable ‘moderates’. The off-shoring of our industry signed on by both parties decades ago devastated well established pathways to comfort for millions, maybe tens of millions, especially those children (now adults, and now with their own children) who had the most tenuous grip on the pathway to a reasonably comfortable, reasonably expected lifestyle under the social contract.
Interesting also you discuss views on tats. The ‘offbeat’ situation of mine I referenced yesterday includes a young person with one. Need to get back to the mines, happily babysitting some 7/19 VIX calls at 13 and 14 I need to pay attention to. Maybe I’ll throw it out later as an LOL.
Jobless claims rise again, concentrated in New York and Michigan. ISM service sector up again for June.
3b
That is right. I am surprised no one sees the liberal flooding of money into the system as non-event. When you are told to loan it all out, don’t worry about the risks and grab the money, don’t be surprised by the gay dog only grooming business that pops up on corner…or shocked that Tik Tok channels with most outrageous, non conforming, inflammatory sh*t makes millions. Everything becomes a business and a business only exists to hide taxes and grow.
Sorry as an event..
Biden has to be half-cocked by definition (and unintelligent), because his son needs to be sequestered away from free society for the good of the country.
Let’s get serious here.
He’s an unmitigated threat to national security. I would imagine the KGB has half a wing dedicated to Hunter Biden at this point. As an adult, why does he have any access to the White House at all? We’re not talking about the minor child of a president here.
Grim: You are right, but the media wo t touch it.
Getting a quote on driveway repair. We have erosion under the concrete. We’re thinking of getting polyfoam injected through the concrete to fill the void. Its supposed to last 10 years. mudjacking weighs about 100 times the foam and with ground heave in the area I don’t want to put that weight so near the slab. Ripping out and replacing the driveway would be 4-5k. Need to get downspout extenders and put those on every downspout too.
Ten went to 408.3 showed respect
When the price of a house listed is 649k, and the first line of the listing description says great starter house, well now, something is really wrong. Just saying.
3b says:
July 6, 2023 at 8:05 am
“I thought it was an in demand field and highly paid. Phoenix presents another side.”
High pay? What do you consider “high pay” in New Jersey?
Especially when boomer jacked up housing /rent pricing into the stratosphere.
Effing WAWA is charging more for regular than diesel fuel.
You pick up a large cereal box in a grocery store it’s as thin as a cardboard cutout.
Let’s not forget you have to be available 24/7, swing shifts, holdiays, and weekends.
You miss bithdays with your kids, I had to give mine up for 4th of July while you drank your pricey liquor, stepped on a ladder and fractured your ankles. These young kids give up plenty of the best years of their lives to be there when cheapskate boomer won’t hire a roofer and fractures his spine falling from his garage sale ladder purchase.
So, any “gains” in pay got absorbed by the bill boomer charged on the government credit card- plus boomer gets to retire earlier as the S S age keeps rocketing into the stratosphere-and boomer is charging the youth to replenish the well he is drinking from.
In demand-yeah, cause who the f wants to do it? Pumpy cries about his job, but every day he is there the government sews another section of gold fabric on his government golden parachute. I see many on this forum who have these golden chutes, or have spouses that are providing them with golden benefits. None of my co-workers have any of it, and in fact, many of the doctors we work with won’t take the garbage insurance we get-but will take the insurance from a guy beat up in a prison-as it is government insurance. Sad to think a criminal can get better healthcare than a nurse.
Now, since there is a shortage-management cannot control the zoo. Kids are connected. They will quit in bulk if you don’t do what they say. It’s called leverage. In an instant they will rocket off to the next health facility. They openly laugh at those who try to control them. The young girls where I work rule the roost. Know how to push every button, make or break any situation, control who does which cases, and send bulk emails to corporate with anything that annoys them. They control sexually with getting what they want, or punishing with threats or allegations. Most of the time it runs as mild suggestions to manipulate things that benefit them, but you must be careful not to cross someone and toe the line correctly. One doctor told a nurse ‘call me daddy” it didn’t go well for him, it was only a joke, I know the guy.
So shite money (with rents over 3k) long hours, working weekends, no summer vacation, holidays, swing shifts. Yeah, you teachers who work 7-3 with no weekends, no holidays, summers off and real pensions and benefits, cry me a river.
My field is completely under paid when you consider the risks, the lawsuit potential, the physical injuries (insurance considers it a dangerous career) the lifesytle- It sucks.
Have I enjoyed it, yes somewhat. But I tell them all to get the f out while you are still young.
It’s glorified factory work for a mostly ungrateful clientele.
On a footnote, nothing like watching a 70 year old 2 ton boomer use her government Social Security money for 3 packs of smokes, knowing she will show up needing care using her government Medicare. I guess if it’s all free for her what does she care?
OTOH, if any of my co workers smoke, their reward is a massive price increase in what we all pay for our healthcare. But I guess it’s job security after all.
Oh, and grandpa, a public service announcement-if you are on blood thinners, stay off ladders, trees, and away from sharp objects. I’m sure you have been told many times, not sure why you don’t listen, you aren’t a child anymore.
Phoenix: Sorry, I was just going by what I heard, from young people in nursing positions, or from their parents. 100 to 150k starting salaries and pick of positions. It’s clear you know what the reality really is.
It’s glorified factory work for a mostly ungrateful clientele.
This is how I feel about my legal billable hours.
3b,
What is 100k when a starter home is 500k?
Plus the shi te a zz lifestyle that goes with it. No tax breaks, all W2, pay for most of your own benefits. I don’t know any nurse over 40 without a back problem- when you weigh 135 and the patient you move is 375, well, eventually you get clipped.
Boomer Remover says:
July 6, 2023 at 1:25 pm
It’s glorified factory work for a mostly ungrateful clientele.
This is how I feel about my legal billable hours.
My kid and I watched Liar Liar with Jim Carrey the other day.
The ending of that movie, I had forgotten, but was so telling and truthful it is amazing.
The way Jennifer Tully, the wife acted with the kids at the end, that is what I experienced, her words as well. I told my kid, that’s your momma right there.
Too bad I didn’t marry the Maura Tierny character instead. Nope, I picked the one that was ridden more than Seattle Slew.
Phooooooenix. Slow down baby….
Sammy Davis, Jr.
Phoenix
At least you get to see Twice soon
“100 to 150k starting salaries and pick of positions….What is 100k when a starter home is 500k?”
Hard to feel for someone with a starting salary of $100k plus….that’s consulting, software development territory. MUCH more area beneath them than above them. By far. Sounds like at the end of the day your issue is with local housing prices…welcome to the metro area in which you (and they) settled.
“My field is completely under paid when you consider the….”
Market is the market and everyone feels underpaid.
Listen, saying this in a friendly way which is all I have ever been to you….You’re on full tilt and not in a good place. You dislike your work, which career comes with certain requirements that you like even less. You were dealt a shit hand in your marriage. You have a child whose affections and respect you are fighting for with an antagonistic, adversarial ex-.
Change what you can.
Professional adjustment.
Yes, there are 150 reasons why you can’t….but….do you think over time your attitude toward your current career is going to change? Say five, ten or more years after which it is too late to do anything?
You are not your past. And only you can control your future. Bitching, blaming, and wishing reality to be different will most certainly not make it so.
Requoted both my home and auto with NJM.
With the same coverage level I saved $888 on my car insurance (remember, new driver means big bucks) and $574 on the home insurance. When combined, they threw me another $121 for the bundle. So I saved nearly $1,583 by changing. That’s a 30% savings. Keep in mind, this was prompted by a $1,000 increase in my homeowners this year (no claims). Just another insurer trying to get the hell out of NJ I suppose (NJ Skylands). I had been with Geico for the auto since 2009, so the tiny increases started to add up. Especially last June, when I added the older son.
Remember, there is no loyalty in insurance. Loyalty actually works against you in this business.
Hard to feel for someone with a starting salary of $100k plus….that’s consulting, software development territory. MUCH more area beneath them than above them. By far. Sounds like at the end of the day your issue is with local housing prices…welcome to the metro area in which you (and they) settled.
First of all, at least where I work, no one is starting at 100k, let alone 95.
And pay is relative, go to Florida, take a 30 percent pay cut. So the close to 100k is only because you are in the metro area. Work in western nj you get paid more in a vet office.
Don’t get me wrong, yes, others do have it worse, and actually, I do like my job- having seniority helps- but we are not discussing me, we were discussing they young ones- some of whom will not get any summer vacation at all.
America spends its money on it’s military, dumps it in places like Ukraine, and gives boomers a tax break while the youth is struggling to gain traction. Boomer had his first house at 20, and his first kid at 22. Women are now up to 28 as the time for a first child.
Years ago, in boomer days, housing was cheap, healthcare was inexpensive, wife could stay home with a man having a factory job. Luxury was expensive, though, a TV would cost a fortune.
Now you have the reverse, you can give up your TV, cell phone, fancy shoes, dresses, etc. But the things you need and can’t do without are still massively expensive.
That is the problem, and boomer created it.
I don’t recommend you enter the printing field.
Lib; That is on my list, and shortly after the GEICO increase announcement I got a switch to us letter from NJM.
Starter house 649k, just saying.
My health care payments for family coverage in the early 90’s was 26.00 bucks every two weeks. I never even thought about it. The only reason I remember is because a few years ago, while getting rid of old stuff, I found an old pay stub.
I love printing. I’m immersed.
Tossed some samples on LinkedIn for the curious.
I don’t know any nurse over 40 without a back problem- when you weigh 135 and the patient you move is 375…
On top of the three packs of Pall Malls per day. I just wonder if Chubby Bill and Mary will get to enjoy the 600K profit on their stanky, outdated split.
3b,
Yeah, saw that.
But didn’t want anyone to say the “youth” was greedy, so I knocked off 149k. Didn’t want anyone to think they wanted a fancy home.
Still got hammered anyway. Bottom line is the only way for these young girls to move forward is to marry. If not, max your 401k if you can, rent small apartment, and get a cat.
100k is shite money, and in our careers, there are no “big jumps. Most only got a fifty cent raise or less this year.
Keep that going for the next 30, you will see where they end up. Bad backs, bad shoulders, bad marriages, and 4 cats.
Your software developer-works from home, no car needed. Injuries such as hangnails and obesity from sitting in a chair. Their problem, being outsourced by their “so called” fellow Americans who aren’t the least bit bothered knowing you are out of a job that went to India while they head to the church or temple in their new Tahoe.
I had healthcare coverage as a cart pusher in Pathmark when that place existed. Free. Walk up to the pharmacy and get your meds.
Our youth are not living in the same time period.
Boomer killed it with their greed.
3b,
649K for a starter vs. this for 290K:
https://www.trulia.com/p/pa/brookville/304-jefferson-st-brookville-pa-15825–2014630702
HMB
Headed out soon. Went yesterday with my kid to Merch Day.
She is a perfect student. I am truly grateful for that.
Looks like it’s going to be a scorcher.
“…the close to 100k is only because you are in the metro area….”
Ditto the consulting.
“…we were discussing they young ones- some of whom will not get any summer vacation at all.”
Again, if comp and job description are not to one’s liking then…don’t choose it as a career. Do differential calculus in college and sit in front of a screen solving for root causes. Take a bunch of business classes and be some VP’s bitch for years along with getting less time and holiday off than a nurse…No one is forcing anyone to work in a specific career…and this generation have acutely honed awareness of work/life tradeoffs so no excuses.
“Years ago, in boomer days, housing was cheap, healthcare was inexpensive, wife could stay home with a man having a factory job…That is the problem, and boomer created it.”
Yeah, kinda not….two earning households and regional population growth created that housing cost situation…if society were still overwhelmingly populated with a ‘traditional’ working husband and stay-at-home mom housing prices would be commensurately cheaper. Yet possibly no more affordable, but recall back then people sacrificed to make the mortgages, and didn’t need the attendant expenses of two worker households…on the regional growth, my in-laws moved to their (one and only) home when the hillside was woods and considered the boondocks for affordability…I did as well, with my first home outside the 287 belt while commuting to NY.
I think you are looking at the past with selective sepia colored glasses….
“I don’t recommend you enter the printing field.”
Yeah, seriously, right?
Fast: OK, Fine, but you cant be special in Brookville, PA, and the people probably don t even bathe there?
215K! Check out the size of the garage. I can see an old RCR or Hendrick Chevy being worked on in this garage:
https://www.trulia.com/p/pa/brookville/101-emery-ln-brookville-pa-15825–2014627651
And you better not have an issue with nose rings.
Eddie.
Taxes of $1,051 a year.
How can that be?
Taxes of $1,051 a year.
How can that be?
43K down, $1,400 per month in PITI. But, here in NJ, we pay for the children. We care!
You know, it’s for the children so the 18K per year in taxes is justified. ‘Cause, we’re special.
“Bottom line is the only way for these young girls to move forward is to marry.”
WTF. Show me people affording the NY metro area without marrying. Seriously, your benchmark for being undercompensated is “I can’t have a married lifestyle alone”?
“I had healthcare coverage as a cart pusher in Pathmark when that place existed. Free…Boomer killed it with their greed.”
Do I really need to explain to you of all people the reason for the escalation in healthcare costs? Parabolically more esoteric (expensive) treatments applied to an exponentially larger patient group with substantially longer life expectancies to use those drugs/care girded by an ever expanding underclass rife with medical conditions who contribute nothing to their own care.
You want to have a UK-like cost/benefit analysis for new drug approval, especially for any end-of-life or terminal treatments, I’m all in. As well as reining in Medicaid to bare essentials.
left: I don t know agree with your housing analysis, at least for the tail end boomers like myself. My friends and family of the same age, we all had stay at home spouses, and we could afford the mortgages, and property taxes under 2k when we started out, and I am talking about mid to late 80’s, so not really all that long ago.
Good raises and bonus were a constant with the exception of bad years on the street, but the next years always made up for those. Health care premiums were low. When the market crashed in the late 80’s and the recession came, the housing crash played out, and people either sold at a loss or stayed. One of my siblings sold his co-op in a prestigious Westchester town for 40k, it was a job relocation so the company absorbed some of the hit to the original purchase price of 140K. There were consequences then when bubbles popped, and if you did not prepare for the rainy day you did not make it, and some did not. And, we all took family vacations every year, and lived comfortable lives. I wont proceed to go on to how we got to where we are today, but here we are. I don t claim that it was super easy easy back then, but it was certainly far easier than it is for us then the younger generations today. There was a lot less uncertainity, there was no outsourcing of white collar jobs, there were still corporate pensions for many, internships paid, and more. As I said all gone today, and much of it I lay at the feet of the Boomers for decisions they made. And as I have noted I am a tail end boomer. Not looking to argue about that, just my views.
I think Old Joe invited Hunter over exactly because he had just gotten off on his plea agreement, and old Joe knows that not-inviting Hunter would make it look like there was something to be ashamed of. So it was an “in your face” to Biden family detractors.
I’ve heard that travel nurses have been making tons of money in recent years. Like $250k/yr money. But have to be willing to follow the money, and travel, not necessarily to the most appealing destinations.
Phoenix
Hope you have a great time. Twice is the funnest show in a big arena/stadium that I’ve been to.
Got the backflow valve and two dribbler heads replaced, system reprogrammed for $518 from a local business in town.
The polyurethane foam driveway stabilization is going to be $1,500. Much cheaper than replacing the driveway and it cures in under an hour. We’re getting that done probably next week.
In other new, Moody’s puts San Fran on negative credit watch, Christmas Tree stores are all closing, and Fed Bank Pres, Logan says more rate hikes are needed.
“If one receives a state pension, it’s only fair and reasonable that if they move to a lower cost of living state their pension is adjusted accordingly.”
The easier answer to this is to make healthcare out of state, out of network.
I am grabbing a six pack and going to meet a dad in the town wading pool where kids play. It’s 1.5 hours during my workday, but I’ll have to make it up tonight, probably between 9 and 11PM. Making up time is the worst.
LW,
I’m firmly of the belief that the two earning households were the result, not the cause, of let’s call it cost of living increases. I do agree that population growth of the country, and in particular specific regions, plays a large role… and also that people, myself included, are sometimes looking back selectively. The numerous changes between then (I bet we’re all thinking about a different “then” as a starting point) and now make it very difficult to assign blame or agree on causation… but we can agree that it is different, as it always is as time marches on.
leftwing says:
July 6, 2023 at 2:42 pm
Yeah, kinda not….two earning households and regional population growth created that housing cost situation…if society were still overwhelmingly populated with a ‘traditional’ working husband and stay-at-home mom housing prices would be commensurately cheaper. Yet possibly no more affordable, but recall back then people sacrificed to make the mortgages, and didn’t need the attendant expenses of two worker households…on the regional growth, my in-laws moved to their (one and only) home when the hillside was woods and considered the boondocks for affordability…I did as well, with my first home outside the 287 belt while commuting to NY.
Lots of traveling nurses where I am now, major healthcare facility nearby. They do ST rentals, the established ‘luxury’ buildings love them, and they move on.
Nephew has a traveler girlfriend. They’re living the life. He’s two programming jobs, both remote, she grabs great nursing locations, multiple a year. His house is in CO, but most of the time he’s out where ever she is and they enjoy the country together…
3b, we’re not that far apart, including age. Sounds like you have a few years on me.
Don’t forget, the 80s you reference are almost 40 years in the rear view mirror…I was there as a first time buyer at the time…yes, even as late as the 80s you could squeak out a one-earner household, although it was changing where if you weren’t solid law, banking, or business owner it was getting tougher…I do believe part of that difference is quality of life decisions…thinking of my same neighborhood from then to now I know people who are currently barely scraping by on two incomes but there are two new cars in the driveway (including an Audi), probably 6-8 screens in the house (large and small) and the attendant services, and landscapers, nannies, etc….Also, quick glance seems to say NYC metro had 15.8m people in 1985 and is now 19.8m…an increase in population of call it 25%. I don’t think new housing stock went up by a similar amount.
Bottom line, everyday shit is more expensive especially if you make certain lifestyle decisions and there is more competition for less housing supply. Not sure where the boomers come into blame on that one.
And for a $650k starter home (in an expensive location) with a DINK couple a few years out of school each at $100k or so is just 3x income…
I didn’t have a vehicle until three years out of school and an apartment of my own until five years. I used to take the two hour train to Spring Lake station and walked to the shore house in Sea Girt. And I didn’t even think about marriage until nearly 30 when I felt financially stable.
Listen, I’ll agree it is more daunting for kids now but I’m also personally hearing a bit of “I’m not getting what I deserve when I think I deserve it” whining. Want to blame the Boomers for something, blame them for the everyone-gets-a-trophy childhood that set those (unrealistic) expectations.
3b,
..and to add to it, lots of Moms worked but it was part time to help with some costs. My best friend had a mom who worked A&P deli counter. My mom raised 6 and also worked as waitress at Rockaway mall for a period of time. Basically, 20 hours a week during school time. If kid was sick or some other event then they quit. Today, you better have a spouse with sustainable 6 figure income to afford that starter house. I disagree with left here. It is not about people with wrong career paths. It is that business and govt continue to pick on some professions and not others. Ones that require lots of people and real efforts are forced to compete with third world visa and outsourcing. I met buddy other day and he admitted that he liked travelling to clients because he did presentation for 1.5hrs about their porfolio performance then free. All expenses paid to hike around CA. He admitted barely worked 4 days week when all said and done. Probably made 225k but now at 350k with new job. You tell me why we can’t outsource role to India for 70k. He has no cfa or certs. I know it is bc rich white people/foundations want nice smiley white people discussing their millions. Nothing more. Lawyer, doctor, day trader or investment sales..everyone else is expendable in today’s capitalism.
My father in law, that crazy bastard, subdivided his single family home in Phoenix. This is in an HOA no less! He built a entrance lobby past the front door, and added a second entrance door. He’s renting the newly built apartment to traveling nurses. $2K month.
“Probably made 225k but now at 350k with new job. You tell me why we can’t outsource role to India for 70k. He has no cfa or certs.”
LOL, c’mon….have you ever been in a client meeting where consideration that will move across table generates seven or eight figures in fees for the firm?
Yeah, hold on Mr. PM, let me get the dude in Grim’s facility in Bangalore on the phone for you….
JFC.
Life is about career choice…hopefully you are discussing the tradeoffs with your children before they come close to college or at least major selection.
BR, my nephew and his girlfriend may be dirtying up those sheets…think Phoenix was one of their locations lol.
Know she was in San Diego for a while.
I’m actually in Phoenix right now. Hot as balls out here.
He handles on-boarded clients, Left not new client business. Get a grip. He is not moving 8 figures. The guy moving 8 figures is making millions. You are clueless as to what knowledge people need downstream. Not surprised because front gets no punishment for their shady practices and bad decisions, simply more money to cover their losses. SVB and FRB are prime examples of slaps on wrist and no change to regulatory environment. Losses come in many forms. In my area, we solve a lot of problems before it gets to that fines and penalties. To put it other terms, you want to pay it all to the guy who sells the pool liner but never the guy who tells you not to use these chemicals as it will damage the liner and void warranty. That is capitalism today.
Left: I agree, we are not that far apart. I probably have a few years on you, but we are close enough in that we can relate. And, I do agree that by the late 80’s it was getting harder, but I think still very much doable. I also don ‘t think I should say perhaps I don’t recall any in my circle squeaking by at that time. It was certainly not an extravagant life style but more than comfortable.
And I do agree that there are younger people today who want the expensive new cars in the driveway, and top of the line everything, and the multiple flat screen TV’s the bigger the better, and the multiple expensive vacations and all the rest, and they are some of the loudest who complain about how tough it is today.
I do have sympathy for those young people who just want a reasonably comfortable lifestyle, in a nice (not prestigious) town. And have the ability to have one parent stay home if they want for a few years until the kid/s are older, or if not possible good affordable child care. And, have the ability to save/invest money, not squeak by or worse. Take away all the extravagance that we both agree some of these younger people want, and I believe it is still more difficult today than it was in the 80’s. I understand it was 35/40 years ago, but still recent enough that it is worth noting. It takes two incomes today to do it even leaving out all the must haves that some young people want and feel they are entitled to. Take away one of those away and it its simply not doable for so many, and even for those who can, there is in my view far more uncertainity today than back than. As for prestigious towns, I am not talking about the Franklin Lakes, and Saddle Rivers, but rather the Westwoods and River Edges, and Fairlawns, nice towns, but certainly not prestigious in my view. I don’t see as a society that we are going forward, we may have access to more trappings and toys, but as a society I think we are declining .
“Younger people today who want the expensive new cars in the driveway, and top of the line everything, and the multiple flat screen TV’s the bigger the better, and the multiple expensive vacations and all the rest, and they are some of the loudest who complain about how tough it is today.”
Perhaps it was bc they spent 150k (250k with interest) on a degree, which they were told (by colleges and media) would get them ahead. I understand why they have expectations. The boomers tell them their degrees are worthless now and people laugh at how stupid they are. Nice.
Lovely beach day today down in long branch. I have guests who wanted too see the Jersey Shore so I took them on a tour and spent a few hours at 7 presidents park. It’s free for kids and $10 pass for adults, the parking is also 10 bucks but I am cheap we fed the street meter instead.
All yours for 3.6 million almost completed development, with no room for even a baby pool out back, and your guests can feed the meter out front when they visit.
https://www.zillow.com/b/200-ocean-blvd-n-long-branch-nj-9hyKWf/
Juice,
Mrs Fab hit 7 Presidents on Jul 4th, I was busy on resumes. She got into the carpark before 10 and got a space, out by 2pm before the weather hit. Best bargain on the shore outside of the National Guard in Sea Grit if you can get in.
She’ll be back tomorrow afternoon if the weather holds.
Shore? Neighbor of yours?
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/105-Cedar-Ave-Allenhurst-NJ-07711/39217821_zpid/
Lib, as mentioned in the past we have had NJM for years. Several years ago in our old kitchen we had a slow leak in the kitchen sink plumbing which ruined the cabinet and floor underneath. I placed a claim just to see if it was worth it, you can cancel if its not. For the flooring they covered any continuous room. So for the small patch in front of the sink they covered replacing the flooring in the entire kitchen and living room. Not sure how other plans work but was kind of shocked.
Fab – I used to jet ski off that 7 presidents beach decades ago. We actually had gas cans and tools on the beach back then along with music and cold ones too, almost anything went. They banned Jet skis about 20 years ago in Federal parks done by some dickhead judge.
Fun times in our 20s jumping the waves on a jet ski with my Monmouth U buddies. They had a house rented right there on Ocean Terrace when the whole area was a no mans land.
At night we then headed over to Tradewinds for the long night of partying. Sunday nights we spent at Donovan’s reef listening to live music (Brian Kirk and the Jerks etc) and waiting out the traffic for the ride home after midnight or Monday morning if you got lucky.
Bystander: A lot of women back then had part time jobs as the kids got older, my wife went part time as my kids got older, and then eventually full time. It would be nice if young people with children today had that ability. I had a friend of mine who recently sold his house , had not done anything to it in years , well kept , but no updates. Got huge bucks for the house (Westwood) , and bought a condo on the shore. He wanted to charge the young people who bought it for the Lawnmower, BBQ and outdoor furniture. His wife was horrified, I called him a cheap bastard, and shamed him into leaving it to them.
Lib: I got my quote from NJM and it’s more than 50 percent cheaper than GEICO, either I am missing something, or GEICO has been way over charging me. I am going to go over everything again to make sure I am not missing anything.
Here is what that part of the shore used to be like for years and years. This one from 2009.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VcpMgWrmhUE
Bystander: I know more than a few parents who pushed their kids to go to so called prestige schools, and I don’t mean Ivies and baby Ivies, and didn’t help them at all or very little. The 5.00 sticker for the car does not count.
Shore? Neighbor of yours?
Was a neighbor of mine and family friend. They sold in 1996 to one of the Jemal Bros., remember Nobody Beats the Wiz? House was tied up in foreclosure for years. Head of the family finally paid off the lien and did the renovation last year. No takers for over a year.
An Original print: https://imgur.com/gallery/d3aY0QZ
Yea, not Hunters
https://thehill.com/homenews/media/4083457-mcenany-breaks-with-trump-no-way-cocaine-at-white-house-is-hunter-bidens/
Fab – Kamala Per MSNBC
“He handles on-boarded clients, Left not new client business. Get a grip. He is not moving 8 figures. The guy moving 8 figures is making millions.”
He’s part of the team that manages those eight figure fee clients; he’s client facing. Too high risk of a move for the firm – or the primary client coverage person – to leave that responsibility in the hands of Bangalore to save $150k. Penny wise and pound foolish. The client is not some housewife calling Chase for a query on a charge on her credit card statement….
“I do have sympathy for those young people who just want a reasonably comfortable lifestyle, in a nice (not prestigious) town. And have the ability to have one parent stay home if they want for a few years until the kid/s are older, or if not possible good affordable child care. And, have the ability to save/invest money, not squeak by or worse. Take away all the extravagance that we both agree some of these younger people want, and I believe it is still more difficult today than it was in the 80’s.”
Totally agree.
‘You Can’t Possibly Get Everything Done’: Martha Stewart Slams Remote Work, on ‘Rampage’ to Get Workers Back in the Office
Stewart says she worked five days a week through the pandemic.
“You can’t possibly get everything done working three days a week in the office and two days remotely,” she told the outlet, bluntly. “Look at the success of France with their stupid … you know, off for August, blah blah blah. That’s not a very thriving country. Should America go down the drain because people don’t want to go back to work?”
Stewart’s comments aren’t entirely shocking: The media maven has not been shy with her opinion on work ethic and corporate culture in America.
Instagram threads. New twitter competitor. Boxing gloves.
We are headed out to PHX for six weeks this coming Wednesday. Our family is in full house swap mode this summer.
Wife’s sister flew to Poland and is living in a very nice custom prefab a cousin built in Poland. That cousin is here in LIC with kids, in my brother in law’s place, while the brother in law is in Italy. We are heading out to Phoenix to live in wife’s sisters place for a few weeks, while the sister stays at our place in NJ.
We booked two nights in the middle of a dark sky desert just in time for a new moon on July 16-17.
My initial quote is 20% cheaper than Geico.
“Your 12-Month Auto Insurance Premium Quote is $1,025.00 including a discount for paying the annual premium in full. If you pay using NJM’s Installment Plan, your total cost would be $1061. “
but after adding a bs speeding ticket received on an staten island expressway offramp, jumps to $1300 which is right around where Geico is… w/o the info about ticket.
I’ll wait for Geico to go up and if it does have NJM to fall back on.
I did titan missile museum and a cavern today. Heading out Friday to go through Grand Canyon and eventually make my way to Vegas. Scottsdale is very nice.