Prediction Season!

From the APP:

Realtor.com released 2024 forecast for top housing markets

Coming in at No. 23 was the Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ area, with forecasts of :

  • 2024 existing home sale counts year over year: 2.2 percent
  • 2024 existing home sale counts vs 2017-19 average: -13.2 percent
  • 2024 existing home median sale price year over year: 5 percent
  • 2024 existing home median sale price vs. 2017-19 average: 63.3 percent
  • Combined 2024 existing home sales and price growth: 7.3 percent

The next New Jersey market on the list was New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA, coming in at No. 75.

  • 2024 existing home sale counts year over year: -10.8 percent
  • 2024 existing home sale counts vs 2017-19 average: -37.5 percent
  • 2024 existing home median sale price year over year: 3 percent
  • 2024 existing home median sale price vs. 2017-19 average: 47.7 percent
  • Combined 2024 existing home sales and price growth: -7.8 percent

The final New Jersey market in the Top 100 is Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD, at No. 80.

  • 2024 existing home sale counts year over year: -13.4 percent
  • 2024 existing home sale counts vs 2017-19 average: -36 percent
  • 2024 existing home median sale price year over year: 3.8 percent
  • 2024 existing home median sale price vs. 2017-19 average: 48.5 percent
  • Combined 2024 existing home sales and price growth: -9.6 percent
This entry was posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, Housing Bubble, New Jersey Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

47 Responses to Prediction Season!

  1. grim says:

    From Yahoo Finance:

    New York-Jersey City-White Plains, NY-NJ Home Prices Up 4.7% Year Over Year, According to First American Data & Analytics Monthly Home Price Index Report

    Year-Over-Year Price-Tier Data for the New York-Jersey City-White Plains, NY-NJ Metro Area: November 2022 to November 2023

    The First American Data & Analytics HPI segments home price changes at the metropolitan level into three price tiers based on local market sales data: starter tier, which represents home sales prices at the bottom third of the market price distribution; mid-tier, which represents home sales prices in the middle third of the market price distribution; and the luxury tier, which represents home sales prices in the top third of the market price distribution.

    CBSA – New York-Jersey City-White Plains
    Starter – 6.2%
    Mid-Tier – 7.7%
    Luxury – 1.4%

    “Unsurprisingly, starter home prices grew the fastest in many markets. Would be first-time buyers hoping to become homeowners usually do so with a lower-priced starter home,” said Fleming. “While the homeownership rate for millennials recently surpassed 50 percent, there are still a lot of potential buyers bidding against each other for the rare starter home that comes to market.”

  2. Juice Box says:

    First?

  3. Very Stable Genius says:

    Second?

  4. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Wake me up when the recession is here. A lot of people are about to have a rude awakening….esp the wfh types. Soon, you will be scared that you will lose your job. Tic tic tic

  5. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Allentown…wilmington….they will be the first to take the price decreases. They think they will go up in 2024? Yea, right.

  6. Boomer Remover says:

    “Soon, you will be scared that you will lose your job. Tic tic tic”

    I’m low key scared of losing my job all the time. Unresolved PTSD from my younger years. This is also why my economic footprint is tiny and my bank accounts is f-n fat.

    I wish I was as carefree as the howmuchamonths, leveraging, taking out credit against assets and just raging hard on credit.

  7. 3b says:

    At some point it will collapse. But, in the meantime the party is on!!

  8. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Party is over. Last call! Game of musical chairs is on!

    3b says:
    December 16, 2023 at 10:22 am
    At some point it will collapse. But, in the meantime the party is on!!

  9. The Great Pumpkin says:

    You have multi generations of workers that have never experienced a recession in the labor market. 13 years going…game is coming to an end, esp with the advent of AI. AI going to go to work during this recession. Wiping out lots of jobs.

    Boomer Remover says:
    December 16, 2023 at 10:00 am
    “Soon, you will be scared that you will lose your job. Tic tic tic”

    I’m low key scared of losing my job all the time. Unresolved PTSD from my younger years. This is also why my economic footprint is tiny and my bank accounts is f-n fat.

    I wish I was as carefree as the howmuchamonths, leveraging, taking out credit against assets and just raging hard on credit.

  10. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Imagine only experiencing a labor market of 4% or less for years…that’s what these people have experienced.

    Thing is…this AI/biotech/fintech revolution will make life tremendously better for everyone. Going to be pain during the transition, but it will be marvelous for the avg human being. It will be once in a lifetime investment opportunities for investors. Being able to invest in a massive change/restructuring of human society.

  11. LAX says:

    10:00 see? YOU could have become a tenured teacher.
    Minus the “fat stacks” but ooooooh the security.

  12. Very Stable Genius says:

    Life is too short and ain’t in this planet to live like if I was a Somalí living in Cuba.

    I frequently lunch at Roots in Morristown but lately is too crowded.

  13. Very Stable Genius says:

    I never leave home without my Amex

  14. Phoenix says:

    Very Stable Genius says:
    December 16, 2023 at 1:09 pm
    Life is too short and ain’t in this planet to live like if I was a Somalí living in Cuba.

    Aren’t you supposed to toil here on earth in order to pay for your admission to Heaven?

    That imaginary guy in the sky is watching you.

  15. Juice Box says:

    Pumps? re: “never experienced a recession in the labor market.”

    What the F was covid? A recession with massive layoffs.

    You need to check yourself already. I hope you aren’t telling your students this nonsense.

    https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm

  16. Phoenix says:

    From a forum where I was reading about many Teslas with motors that have coolant leaks resulting in high dollar repairs. 5-7k for this problem. 6k if you have a bad contactor.
    Seems like a car you buy new and ditch when the end of the warranty comes close.

    “From what I have read, Tesla does not release any service history from the previous owners, not even to current owner of the car, much less prospective buyers.”

  17. Boomer Remover says:

    I also take my Amex, I just pay it in full each month.

  18. RentL0rd says:

    Pumpkin
    >> Thing is…this AI/biotech/fintech revolution will make life tremendously better for everyone. Going to be pain during the transition, but it will be marvelous for the avg human being. It will be once in a lifetime investment opportunities for investors. Being able to invest in a massive change/restructuring of human society.

    I guarantee you that the few at the top will milk all financial benefit out of this AI revolution. That AI startup your friend started – well, it will go bust. The guy who learnt fancy prompts… will be paid lower than his current job. The team of gals who worked at McKinsey UX earning high 6 figures – well, they’ll be replaced by ONE low income person who knows how to use Dall-E.

    So, NO, it’s not going to be better for everyone.

    This is best case scenario.

    The worst case is a “leave the world behind” movie like scenario.

  19. 3b says:

    Rent: AI is going to have profound negative affects on humans throughout the world. I have seen what it can do now, and what will be able to do as it evolves. Millions of jobs regardless of the profession will be eliminated. Millions of people will become redundant. Once again it will be the younger generations that will be hurt ( to say the least!). But, in the meantime party on!!

  20. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Sorry, that chit does not count. No way, no how.

    Juice Box says:
    December 16, 2023 at 3:39 pm
    Pumps? re: “never experienced a recession in the labor market.”

    What the F was covid? A recession with massive layoffs.

    You need to check yourself already. I hope you aren’t telling your students this nonsense.

    https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm

  21. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Rent lord,

    Aka invest accordingly.

    But it will make it better, as everything will become more accessible (cheaper).

  22. RentL0rd says:

    Right, everything – all resources, including humans, will be more cheap.

  23. Phoenix says:

    Says the pensioner, who doesn’t need to invest as he gets a government guaranteed pension.
    Hehe.

    The Great Pumpkin says:
    December 16, 2023 at 7:53 pm
    Rent lord,

    Aka invest accordingly.

  24. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Phoenix,

    Life is good. Choices matter. On pension and income property, millionaire by 40 from nothing. Would be much much higher without the wife.

  25. Phoenix says:

    Hehe

    FL Republican State Rep. Randy Fine dives under his desk and hides to avoid being served with court papers.

    https://www.reddit.com/r/PublicFreakout/comments/18jtg85/fl_republican_state_rep_randy_fine_dives_under/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

  26. LAX says:

    Sunday is our show.

  27. Juice Box says:

    Pumps you don’t get to decide when a recession is. There was a recession in 2020, it does not matter if the cause was a virus or a housing bust.

    Next one could be caused by a Chinese meltdown due to a housing bust there that will spill over into our markets. Markets will drop , unemployment will rise and businesses will stop investing. That future recession which is almost baked into the cake at this point will have nothing to do with the US economy directly.

  28. Fast Eddie says:

    Housing prediction 2024: The 30 yr. rate will sink to the low ‘5’ range and prices rise another 7% in the NJ/NY/CT sphere. Food trucks begin to set up camp outside of open houses realizing a profit opportunity. College interns are hired to create spreadsheets with offers including pivot tables and dashboards to sort top bid winners. The first 3bd/2bth cape will close with a seven-digit hammer price which will usher in a new class of muppets called the Chardonnay Bourgeoisie. It’s a title exclusive for home owners unreachable to the mud larks of society as they nosh at the zero sum brunch buffet of cheese doodles and diet coke.

  29. 3b says:

    Juice: And when the recession comes, companies will dump people and more real estate.

  30. 3b says:

    Fast: Could be some use of Power BI as well.

  31. Fast Eddie says:

    3b,

    Ah yes, spreadsheets are so dated now. What was I thinking?

  32. Phoenix says:

    America is a “Law and Order” country. It wants order.
    F this. Hire some mobsters to go after every member in the private equity firm and deep fry their nuts while still attached.

    Watch how fast this private equity and hedge fund crap comes to a stop.
    Americas legal system does one thing, allows corruption and theft to run wild.

    Fast-food giant McDonald’s previously owned Boston Market for seven years until it sold it to a private equity firm in 2007.

    Boston Market grew rapidly as it enjoyed a successful period of business but it has been on a steep decline.

    Its stores have slipped by more than three quarters and keeps falling every day.

    The company’s immediate future has been cast into doubt following Pandya’s personal filing for bankruptcy protection.

    Most of the closures are due to formal evictions because of unpaid rent.

    Boston Market is also facing a lawsuit from one of its key vendors US Foods over claims it is owed around $11million.

    The company is also the subject of a federal investigation over unpaid wages from vendors and employees, according to Restaurant Business Online.

  33. Phoenix says:

    Crooks are outrunning America’s legal system like Usain Bolt. Don’t worry customers, just call our 1-800 number, enter the prompts, wait one hour, talk to a foreign operator, then get disconnected and try over and over again.

    Don’t bother asking the bald guy with the badge and the toys for tots bag. He isn’t going to help you.

    ‘Target has my money and the crook has the gift!’: How victims are losing hundreds on cruel new ‘card draining’ scam that leaves gift cards for major retailers utterly WORTHLESS

  34. Phoenix says:

    Platform’s links with China and accuse it of pushing subversive anti-US propaganda? Sounds to me like ]the kids are telling the truth.

    “The US Army is facing a TikTok mutiny as Gen Z recruits are taking to social media to whine about low pay, ‘sh***y’ food and fitness tests.

    The brazen posts – by uniformed troops on US bases – represent an audacious challenge to top brass amid a recruitment crisis. The Army fell short of its target by 25 percent last year.

    One of the posts by military influencer Anthony Laster slams Army life for having ‘No Privacy, The Pay Sucks, Sh***y Food, Disrespectful Leadership, NO SLEEP!’ and has been viewed more than 600,000 times.

    Laster, from Chicago, has more than a million followers on TikTok and made the public comments in uniform while on mission in the desert. In another post he claimed he spent his whole day watching TikToks while supposedly fighting the Taliban.

    It gives a woeful impression of America’s fighting forces to potential recruits, which is likely to cause further animosity toward TikTok from critics. Politicians from both sides have concerns about the platform’s links with China and accuse it of pushing subversive anti-US propaganda.

  35. Phoenix says:

    Great comment, not mine:

    “No one, and I mean NO ONE, should be joining the military until we see how vets are treated improves. Immeasurably.”

    But hey, F’ you. We don’t have money for that, we spent it on Ukraine and other countries that have their hands out begging for cash. Now go dig that foxhole and enjoy your turd biscuit soldier. Your dismissed.

  36. Phoenix says:

    I guess the “woke” are finally waking up and realizing they have been roofied by Boomer.

  37. Phoenix says:

    America, do you think we can go for three a day? What a disconnect.

    The Great Pumpkin says:
    December 16, 2023 at 9:37 pm
    Phoenix,

    Life is good. Choices matter. On pension and income property, millionaire by 40 from nothing. Would be much much higher without the wife.

    Probably a pair of hardworking middle class people who just can’t take it anymore.

    Man Struck, Killed By Train Was First Of Two NJ Transit Fatalities Wednesday Night
    A man was fatally struck by a train in South Orange on Wednesday, Dec. 13, in one of two fatal transit strikes that evening, NJ Transit said.

  38. Phoenix says:

    Hehe.

    Well this is a surprise. Not.

    The 131st Bergen Academy class of graduates from various area departments were joined at their Dec. 15 commencement ceremony at Felician University by loved ones, colleagues and dignitaries — but not by nearly all of their instructors.

    All except one of those instructors were relieved of their duties by the New Jersey Police Training Commission (PTC) amid accusations of impropriety, Daily Voice has learned.

    As a result, Academy Class #132, which was supposed to begin training next month, is on hold.

    The instructors reportedly were reassigned amid accusations of ethics code violations, including socializing with recruits before graduation, according to multiple high-ranking law enforcement officers in the county.

  39. The Great Pumpkin says:

    A lot of unhappy people out there as they have no purpose. Purpose is important, without it, there is no point to surviving.

    It’s sad when you see something like this. Time is the most valuable asset on the planet (which is why it is so difficult to sacrifice to invest), and to see these people willingly throw it away is really sad.

    Phoenix says:
    December 17, 2023 at 11:34 am
    America, do you think we can go for three a day? What a disconnect.

    The Great Pumpkin says:
    December 16, 2023 at 9:37 pm
    Phoenix,

    Life is good. Choices matter. On pension and income property, millionaire by 40 from nothing. Would be much much higher without the wife.

    Probably a pair of hardworking middle class people who just can’t take it anymore.

    Man Struck, Killed By Train Was First Of Two NJ Transit Fatalities Wednesday Night
    A man was fatally struck by a train in South Orange on Wednesday, Dec. 13, in one of two fatal transit strikes that evening, NJ Transit said.

  40. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I love wfh!!

    “There is so much inefficiency in corporate jobs. Some of my non dentist friends are always on social media. They say that they get their work done in 2-3 hours. Rest of the time, they just socialize with their coworkers.”

    https://x.com/chutneylife/status/1736404660317983120?s=46

  41. Libturd says:

    “you will be scared that you will lose your job.”

    Easy for you to say.

  42. LAX says:

    DM is absolutely rocking tonight in LA.
    They sound fantastic. Playing hits & deep tracks.

  43. chicagofinance says:

    I sense that Violater is your personal fave. You got 5 of those tracks last night. They only recently added POT, and WFTN is in less than half the shows.

    You lucked into one of the perfect times to see the show. Gahan has worked out the entire show now and how he wants to present it. I saw it in April and October. Almost an identical setlist, but it was still two different shows. Both good, but October was elite.

    LAX says:
    December 18, 2023 at 12:44 am
    DM is absolutely rocking tonight in LA.
    They sound fantastic. Playing hits & deep tracks.

  44. LAX says:

    12:23 bingo! Huge fan of Violator.
    His voice was perfect. Amazing !!

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