From the Guardian:
Millennials on course to become ‘richest generation in history’
Millennials may have been portrayed as frivolous spenders squandering their income on overpriced coffees and online barre classes in the face of pitiful long-term finances – but they are on course to become the “richest generation in history”, a study has shown.
Those born between 1981 and 2000 are in line for a “seismic” windfall over the next 20 years, according to research by real estate agent Knight Frank, thanks to the property assets accumulated by the generations before them.
While the distribution of wealth may be shifting between world regions, an even bigger shift is happening between generations. The switch will see $90tn (£71tn) of assets move between generations in the US alone, “making affluent millennials the richest generation in history”, Knight Frank said in its 18th annual wealth report.
The research found that 75% of millennials expect their wealth to increase in 2024, against 53% in the baby boomer generation (those born between 1946 and 1964), 56% in gen X (1965 to 1980) and 69% in the younger gen Z.
While they wait for their inheritances, many millennials are still reeling from a series of economic shocks, with the 2008 crash followed by a series of financial headwinds brought about by the pandemic, Brexit and war in Ukraine.
As a result of rising rents, they have spent much of their income on housing costs and faced significant challenges to afford their own homes or build up a pension pot. The conditions have fuelled an image that millennials – shorn of the target of saving their income to acquire property – have frittered their money away on pricey pastimes and avocado on toast.
In reality, their future financial firepower is likely to be a divisive lottery, predominantly determined by inheritance from previous generations, including property.
This one is an underhand pitch to PHX:
https://studyfinds.org/female-psychopaths-are-surprisingly-common/
First non grim
Grim,
Just saying.
But I never said all women are evil. For a big part of my life I had most women tuned out other than the one I was married to. Probably tuned her out as well, f’n thing nagged and complained about everything like the one in the “It’s not about the nail.” F’n spoiled rich girl. The type that needs to be airlifted into Ukraine and dropped in the middle of nowhere with a C-ration.
But now, since I don’t have to spend time fixing a furnace, or studying the reason for a soil condition on my yard, I have decided to observe people.
For your entertainment:
https://youtu.be/FTbgvYPVdXE
Median 401k account balance 65 years old is about 70k. Just saying.
There are women psychopaths, and I am not surprised there are far more than originally believed. Having dealt with a few, including two extended family members and my Brothers ex, I can say they are extremely manipulative, far better than men, and cold, ice cold. They take great pleasure in what they do.
Backstabbing Grim fucks me over on the hat-tip (Claudine Gay Edition):
grim says:
February 29, 2024 at 5:31 am
This one is an underhand pitch to PHX:
https://studyfinds.org/female-psychopaths-are-surprisingly-common/
Chicago says:
February 28, 2024 at 8:23 am
Cutting Edge Medical Research (Phoenix Edition):
https://www.aru.ac.uk/news/female-psychopaths-more-common-than-we-think
Lead article. Yes, and I’ve said as much. However, it ignores the fact that boomers are going to need tons of end of life care which will piss through a healthy chunk of money. Also, inflation, dictates that nominal values increase over time so it should always set records. It’s not anything special, but it makes for a good headline.
Chicago says:
February 29, 2024 at 8:23 am
Backstabbing Grim fucks me over on the hat-tip (Claudine Gay Edition):
Hehe.
PCE was meh.
Melt up continues.
3b,
I can detect this type easy now. With some simple yet very accurate advice from The Prince I handle these types with no problem.
Had one at the Walmart the other day. Fine looking, tight yoga pants, a real looker.
The type that usually gets her own way. But not that day.
I always let that type in front of me. So I can stare at their ass.
In reality, their future financial firepower is likely to be a divisive lottery, predominantly determined by inheritance from previous generations, including property.
Geez, you don’t say.
Was with one of my much, much, much younger colleagues the other day. Lovely young lady.
Shocked me with her interest and knowledge of history. And politics.
I think late 20’s is about the time that sh it hits real for them. Like that scene in Top Gun where Maverick finally engages.
It’s so refreshing to see them have an epiphany.
3B,
The main article is typical financial news propaganda. The wealth is so concentrated that only some millennials will inherit vast amounts of money. Sure, they will probably get free house and enough money to buy investment properties for top dollar. Unless someone can show us the rough % of millennials getting this windfall then it is bunk theory, probably 5-7% of entire millennial population getting majority of any massive inheritance. They will mostly be concentrated in NY/NJ/CT of course.
Libturd says:
February 29, 2024 at 8:42 am
I always let that type in front of me. So I can stare at their ass.
I made her walk away. Then stared at her ass. The one she would never let me touch anyway.
Thank you Machiavelli.
I can say they are extremely manipulative, far better than men, and cold, ice cold. They take great pleasure in what they do.
The ice-cold bit is accurate. I’d say it’s more daft than psychotic, though. As I said the other day, a man is nothing more than the recipient of a woman’s actions. The woman leads, whether you think so or not. Every organism in the ecosystem, from an insect to a mammal, has the male courting the female for some level of acceptance, approval and compliance. And when a woman is done, she’s done. There may be a reason or none at all. Deal with it through the lens of inquiry and conclusion or let your emotions dictate and have it eat you alive.
Up 105% since last Thursday….what a ride.
Bystander: Agreed. It’s just these types of articles fuel the all is well mantra, might be a little tough now for some, but in the future they will inherit all this wealth, so it’s all good.
Putin makes direct threat to NUKE the West as he accuses NATO and the US of ‘preparing to strike’ Russia in his annual address to the nation.
Maya Angelou once said, “When people show you who they are, believe them the first time.
Fab,
From post last night.
Best of luck to you. Great to hear you have someone to back you and a plan.
I go it alone every day. No plan. But I will smash anything that gets in my way.
No more rev limiter. Safety off.
Fast: Ice cold , and psychotic , not daft. I have dealt with a few, not my family, but extended family. Toxic, no soul.
3b says:
February 29, 2024 at 9:05 am
Fast: Ice cold , and psychotic , not daft. I have dealt with a few, not my family, but extended family. Toxic, no soul.
Greedy, money hungry?
Oh, and I love the word daft. Monty Python vibes.
And the word stone. As in how many stone does it weigh.
Phoenix: Oh yes, shockingly greedy and money hungry. They will do whatever it takes, and try to destroy anyone who challenges them. They wrap it up in love and family , and put a bow on it. Those that see it for what it really is and call them on it, have to be destroyed.
Libturd
I’m all in again bought 3 stocks with sub 10 billion market caps.
This week I bought ASO. Academy Sports and Outdoors. If you like floor and decor or tractor supply co take a look at it. PE of 9, ROE of 30%, ROIC around 15. Went public in 2020 and has already bought back 15% of its shares. Has around 275 stores and is planning on growing by 120-140 over the next few years and improve margins to over 10%. 5 years ago its margins were 1% and it set a goal of breaking 5%. It’s now over 8%. They’re planning on just opening new stores and buying back stock with their cash flow.
The average store is huge at 70k sq feet and grosses 24 million a year. 99.5% of the stores are profitable. Management thinks Theirs room in the US to eventually triple store count to around 800 so it has a long runway.
And 2 boring infrastructure companies. $CNM core and main. Sells water mains and sewer mains and fire hydrants. Very fractured and localized due to zoning and needs industry. It buys back stock and acquires mom and pop businesses in its industry all over the country.
And HWKN. Hawkins. It’s a chemical company that also owns water treatment plants. It buys back enough stock to roughly cover stock based compensation and then buys a few water filtration plants a year. It has also beaten the s p 500 for the last 1, 5, 10, and 20 years and only has a market cap of 1.4 billion.
I doubt people are going to stop using water, flushing toilets and needing storm drains. Boring businesses a kid in a dorm can’t take down.
And not advice. Due your own research. Just telling what and why I bought. Trying to build a set and forget portfolio with ideally none, but maybe 1 or 2 stocks a year getting booted out and replaced.
“And when a woman is done, she’s done. There may be a reason or none at all. Deal with it through the lens of inquiry and conclusion or let your emotions dictate and have it eat you alive.”
And when she is done, she may weaponize the police force with lies and allegations. Cause what she needs now is your money and house, and what she wants is the kids that she believes are hers only.
It’s easy to walk away from a woman. Especially when there are 5 armed men in your house convincing you that better or else they will find some “Trumped” (hehe) up charges to hit you with, or better yet, dispatch you with a 9mm
Qualified immunity bitchez!
3b,
Some humor for you, time stamped. Watch about one minute.
Chris Rock, Bill Burr. All correct.
https://youtu.be/eIdL_vI9kTc?t=84
A Public Service announcement from Vladimir Putin
https://youtu.be/Uuf7uLujKDs
HMB,
I’ll look into them tomorrow. Crazy busy day today. Your justifications listed appear sound. They also mimic my preferred style. That is, you look for undervalued companies in a positive macro environment. These are the set them and forget them stocks. Just remember, they probably won’t keep up with say an NVidia or any other juiced AI megacap name. They also won’t drop 60% when the gig is up. The best stocks are the ones no one is paying attention to even though they have a winning track record. Good luck. Now make sure the other 80% of your money is in a combo of index ETFs and sector ETFs
Listed Friday for $597,000. About 80 showings in 4 days. In total 7 offers all above asking price. Offer accepted $681,000. GLA 1524 with 2nd bath in basement, no garage and few meaningful updates.
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/17-Bogert-Pl-Westwood-NJ-07675/38056958_zpid/
Phoenix,
Rock speaks the truth
“I always let that type in front of me. So I can stare at their ass.”
One of Patrice’s best bits. F-in hilarious.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DA0bNNF6jrU
Old Realtor,
Wow! 80 showings in four days. Or maybe not anymore. And 7 offers!
Someone mentioned Portland yesterday and how the city is going off the rails? Duplicate that for every city with the same philosophy and nothing will change. The residents will still pull the blue lever believing the red lever is infinitely worse.
By the way, I still like what RFK Jr. is saying.
Regarding Portland and drugs…Is this country truly concerned about drug overdoses? Keep hearing how fentanyl killing people is a big issue with Republicans. Logic would dictate that free heroin for drug addicts with supervised injection sites would put fentanyl sellers out of business and end overdoses. Somehow I don’t see the Republicans supporting such a common sense measure.
Home purchased by me for 800K in summer 2020 as newer construction, no updates and now 1.1m listing. A smaller home down street sold for 430k in 2018 and under contract in 1 day at 630K (most likely multi-bid). Again, absolutely zero updates They will be snapped up this week, with close to 40-50% price increase in few short years. Good luck millennials. You are being sold a bill of good on these big rate cuts. Powell is on PCP if he thinks this is sustainable.
I remember when I graduated college in 1995 and took grad courses for a year or so before moving to DC and starting career in 1997. DC had exploded with internet/telecom start-ups, all due to telecom act of ’96 which opened up market for competition against Verizon (Bell Atlantic). I remember how our company was going to change the world, everyone was going to be rich. The markets soared. The sales people were being gifted Audi Roadsters for selling T1s to every business. Contracts abound. Everyone wanted us. I was doing dope work in client pricing without a clue on end game. Things were great for 1.5 years but I noticed that while sales grew, billing and provisioning team sizes stayed same. While were producing invoices, nothing was getting paid but our CEO pumped us up. We were going to be a top player. By 2000, IPO was launched and execs bailed. Sales people cashed in options and quit. Suddenly, we found out that contracts were garbage and Verizon still owned the line at client, bottle-necking our business. Clients refused to pay, we had no revenue and it was a lie. The VC money dried up. Layoffs and closure by year end. In summary, welcome to AI. History repeats itself. All sales and no cattle. The promise of massive change for every man, woman and child. No real work being done and tech workers being shredded but the markets soar on the hubris. I can’t wait for whole thing to explode.
Box for sale 1.1 million.
https://www.redbankgreen.com/2024/02/red-bank-1-1m-home-sets-westside-mark/?fbclid=IwAR3G7ouBlNYO_Nr6n5GQWoOZeYMA5lpCPCCFlkfUzKMEEBo7OToUu4NbiLc
By,
We are in the minority, but I agree with you wholeheartedly. Again, I see the intelligence, but not the artificial side of the product. Though deep down inside, I know one day they will figure it out. But not in the near future. Probably not in my lifetime.
We are both from the generation that watched the transistor (an electronically controlled switch) morph into the Integrated Chip (multiple switches). Then morph into the microchip (millions of switches). Then morph into arrays and supercomputers (trillions of switches). AI is supposed to harness the power of these trillions of switches by essentially being able to handle the millions of algorithms necessary to provide the correct answers/solutions. But I’m still not sold on it being any more than programmers just getting smarter. I don’t think capacity was or is the limiting factor here. I think it’s our inability to figure out how to teach a computer to teach itself. For AI to do what the pundits say it will do, it will need to think like a brain thinks. Sure, advances in processing power have probably made it possible for a computer to think as quickly as a brain. But, the “how” a brain learns and thinks is the nut we still haven’t cracked. And I’m not sure more power will help us find that answer.
Paterson police department is a disgrace!
https://www.northjersey.com/story/news/paterson-press/2024/02/29/paterson-nj-retired-cop-sentenced-in-child-porn-distribution-case/72775379007/
Logic would dictate that free heroin for drug addicts with supervised injection sites would put fentanyl sellers out of business and end overdoses.
Until they develop a tolerance and can’t get their fix from that supervised injection. I’ve had 3 cousins die from fentanyl. Each of them were found with drugs laced with it on them. The dealers are all cutting their stuff with it. But mixing isn’t always so simple with powders. Adding small amounts of fentanyl to a large sample of something else doesn’t disperse evenly. In fact, it can clump. So, 99% of the customers are find, and 1% gets the hot shot.
They legalized weed in NJ. A large percentage of people who picked up the habit now buy it on the black market instead of the dispensaries because it’s cheaper.
Lib: I agree with much of your analysis, but not all of it. Yes, it will be years before AI can think like a human brain, but perhaps not as long as you might think. In the meantime it is eliminating white collar jobs now, and will continue to. Anyone that thinks AI is not having and will continue to have a negative effect on white collar employment I believe is seriously mistaken.
Portland is by far the worst offender of implemented bad ideas over the past decade.
Bystander: I believe Powell has created an absolute mess.
Juice, That structure being a box isn’t the issue. The issue is that it’s always meh construction just scaled up for more square footage, or placed on more expensive land. Stick built, mediocre sound isolation, drywall everywhere. Better than standard? Sure, but let’s be honest, still subpar to components and finishings in luxury structures elsewhere.
Give me concrete pour, top to bottom glass or at least oversized glass panes, layered ceilings with indirect lighting, energy recuperation, German windows.
I’ve not seen this in the $2MM or the $4MM new construction homes I’ve visited in Bergen…. okay the $4MM residence is impressive, I suppose it did achieve escape velocity in terms of design and finishing.
How many [expletive] millions do you need to get thoughtful architectural design and not some gaudy cookie cutter board box? foh.
Any one have thought on Block Island, is it worth a visit ? Thinking about a quick trip in May.
3b,
I think Lib is right. We will get there but it will be a long time. In my view, AI can’t be a job destr0yer before it is a major job creator. There are way, way too many variables to consider, especially in regulated industries. I am not seeing it at all. We are just discussing use cases and my manager says expect no pilots this year. My IB would run you over for a nickel so I take that with some assurance. I like the think more practically like the vermin on WS and in DC, Biden admin sees it as a major market positive for re-election. They won’t f with it this year. WS is certainly treating the euphoria to trap more suckers. Powell has his everything bubble in full gear. They will put clamps down with regulation when they don’t need the euphoria to gain re-election. White collar jobs are being eliminated bc they don’t need the people if the hubris is doing the dirty work for the stock. They continue to slim labor costs bc no one cares about growth now.
Bystander: I don’t disagree it will take time, but it is starting, at least in the lower level positions, and it will continue and grow going forward. I think the younger generations need to be very concerned about it.
For now apparently all is well if we are to believe the narrative, jobs still strong, inflation easing, ( but prices still high) , and yet the layoffs continue in the white collar industries, Citi announced another 250 layoffs today, on top of the 20k announced at year end over the next couple of years, Expedia announced 1500 layoffs yesterday, apparently due to travel declining among other reasons. According to Forbes 33k tech layoffs have been announced in the first two months of 2024. Google is laying off 30k it expects to replace with AI. Meanwhile, the street is fretting over when the Fed will cut rates, and there are people out there engaging in bidding wars over houses in everyday towns , while credit card delinquencies and mortgage foreclosures are starting to tick up. It just all seems bizarre, but what do I know.
People laughed at Nancy Reagan’s “just say no” campaign but Todd Bridges, Dana Plato, and a bunch of others should have listened. Makes me wonder why cigarette use has dropped, but other anti-drug efforts haven’t. Illegal drugs are cheaper after cigarette and alcohol taxes rose?
3b,
Libturd told us the economy is on steroids! You better wise up and go put a few jet skis on your credit card!
A lot of tech layoffs are most likely the result of overhiring during the lockdown when everyone did everything online.
Defaults increasing? Mostly younger people and to be expected when the FED raises rates so dramatically.
https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc.html
I am usually a bear. Heck, some called me a permabear. But outside of the contagion from CRE, which can easily be taken care of by lowering interest rates so the debt can be refinanced at similar rates. I just don’t see any real headwinds. Not that I trust any analysts, but Goldman Sachs agrees with me too. America is not burning. Turn off X. Turn off FoxNews. It took me 45 minutes to drive the 13 miles down the GSP to Union at 9:30am this morning. Things simply ain’t that bad!
Our two primary investment themes of US Preeminence and Staying
Invested have served our clients well over the past 14 years. US equities
have outperformed other equity markets and staying invested has
allowed clients to capture the ninefold increase in US equities. These
investment themes remain valid. However, we do not expect US equities
to outperform other equities by the same magnitude; nor do we expect
high absolute returns from US equities.
The key takeaways from our 2024 Outlook are as follows:
• Stable but Uneven Global Growth: We expect global economic growth
to stand at 2.9%, relative to 3% trend growth. The US will also grow in
line with its trend while the Eurozone and the UK at 0.5% GDP growth
will grow well below trend. Japan will be an exception among developed
economies in growing above trend. While emerging market countries
together will grow at trend, there will be some dispersion among the
BRICS countries with Russia growing above trend due to its war efforts,
Brazil below trend, and China at trend.
• Monetary Policy Easing: We believe that most major central banks in
developed economies, except for Japan, will start reducing policy rates in
2024. Japan, on the other hand, will end its negative interest rate policy
and raise rates. In emerging markets, China will continue to support its
economy with an easing monetary policy stance, Brazil will continue
to lower rates, and India and Russia may ease modestly in the second
half of 2024.
Outlook Investment Strategy Group 47
• Recession Risk in the US: We have lowered our risk of recession in the US
for the year ahead to 30%, which is above the unconditional probability of
recession of 18% but substantially lower than current consensus.
• Modest Mid-Single-Digit Benchmark Returns: After a 14% return in 2023
for a 50% stocks-50% bonds benchmark, we expect a more modest 5%
return for taxable investors and 6% for tax-exempt investors in 2024. We
expect a well-diversified portfolio leveraging our strategic asset allocation
process to outperform a passive benchmark over time.
• Significant Geopolitical Risks: We face a long litany of geopolitical risks
this year, including an escalation of the Israel-Hamas War, expected
stalemate in the Ukraine-Russia War with some risk of escalation,
continued US-China tensions, more ballistic missile testing by North
Korea, a growing partnership between Iran and Russia, and continued
nuclear enrichment in Iran. While there are elections in 76 countries in
2024, only a handful of those will impact global economies and financial
markets, including that of Taiwan in January and that of the US in
November.
• Vigilance: As usual, we diligently watch for unexpected risks and remain
vigilant in search of market opportunities.
Must be money laundering or 1031 exchange……
JUice Box says:
February 29, 2024 at 12:39 pm
Box for sale 1.1 million.
https://www.redbankgreen.com/2024/02/red-bank-1-1m-home-sets-westside-mark/?fbclid=IwAR3G7ouBlNYO_Nr6n5GQWoOZeYMA5lpCPCCFlkfUzKMEEBo7OToUu4NbiLc
That Red Bank house needs shutters or something.
Make sure you go on a clear day….. or skip food….
3b says:
February 29, 2024 at 2:10 pm
Any one have thought on Block Island, is it worth a visit ? Thinking about a quick trip in May.
Lib,
It is way more than just shedding expensive hires in 2021/2022. It is absolutely the worst tech market I have been in 25 years. There is no investment nor push to hire in many companies. unless person has the skills of 3 people. Even then they take their time or close role. If you were to start looking, you would see insane sh*t out there. Take home case assignments, IQ tests, personality tests, knock out questionnaires. one way video interviews, 6 rounds of in-person interview for increasingly crappier pay. You could do all of these things and still high chance of ghosting. My brother spent whole weekend on case assignment, only to say closed role and not hiring. Really, I complain quite often but this is another level of hell for many.
accidentally put this post in yesterday’s feed.
Chi, my sister (age 35) lived in Portland for about 7 years. She tried moving out to the suburbs there but the nonsense bled into there as well so she gave up on that after another 2. The people in the suburb towns all have homeless living in their backyards. She championed all those policies and even started to try out shrooms as a store opened down the road from her. Now that she’s back, she is teetering on the edge mentally. Between the degrading quality of life, lack of sunshine, and the drugs, that place literally broke her.
Lib: I respect your opinions on multiple topics, including the market/ economy, but I remain skeptical on just how well the economy is doing. Maybe I am just old school, or the world has changed and I have not.
BRT says:
February 29, 2024 at 1:30 pm
“Portland is by far the worst offender of implemented bad ideas over the past decade.”
Really nothing more than Dems doing to what were at one time highly-livable cities out west, what they’ve already done to what were at one time economic powerhouses like Detroit and Baltimore back east — run them into the ground! Fact is, any list of ‘worst offenders of implemented bad ideas’ cities would be Dem-run from top to bottom. In addition to requiring people to vote in-person and to prove their ID at the polling place, apparently we should require drug tests as well before letting Dem dopes pull the lever.
3B,
I could be wrong. Will admit it too. I want to take some off the table since I’ve done really, really well. So I appreciate all of the convincing here. Will continue to watch closely and will continue to tell you how I see it.
If you recall, about 40% ago, you all said I was suffering from FOMO when I went all in.
My brother spent whole weekend on case assignment, only to say closed role and not hiring.
I was a victim of this over decade ago. I successfully created app templates in Unix and Windows environments over a weekend only to be told they decided not to fill the role. The douchebags were getting “candidates” to do work for nothing.