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I’ll post my notes and comments about the Otteau seminar a little later this weekend.
Honestly, it was a great seminar. Jeff Otteau did a great job presenting the facts, and he didn’t hold anything back either. I wish attendance at his seminars was manditory for every licensed agent. It was that good.
Just to give you a taste, Otteau is looking for 15% declines by the end of 2007 and the luxury market might just never recover.
jb
Oh no – grim’s been imbibing this…..
http://tinyurl.com/ybmn7g
Don’t tell me you got one of those yellow sports soats now too…
Damn, Coats.
So far Otteau has been to conservative…he will follow the market lower….
It’s really bad out there….DON’T LET ANYONE FOOL YOU.
You have money…you can get a loan with a real down payment you OWN THIS MARKET…DEAMND HUGE PRICE CONCESSIONS…YOUR FUTURE SAVINGS DEPEND ON IT…HOUSES WILL NO ONGER BAIL YOU OUT FOR RETIREMENT IMO…
I do agree that the high end may never come back
ENJOY THE MISERABLE WEEKEND GRUBBERS…
BOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAAA
Bob
No kool-aid. Believe me, there are plenty of areas where we disagree.
jb
Here are some snippets from my notes..
50% of all Hudson Gold Coast condo purchases were by speculators.
Interest-only mortgages accounted for 40% of all purchases in New Jersey in 2005.
Estimated that for every first time homebuyer purchase, 5 additional resales take place. So, for every 1st timer that holds back, 5 more sales never take place.
50%!!
That is truly scary….
In 2005, speculators accounted for 28% of all sales across NJ.
jb
JB,
Will this info eventually be published by Otteau?
Also, September saw a 24% year over year decline in sales.
Remember, September of 2005 is when we first saw the first real downturn in sales. So now what we’re seeing are additional year over year declines.
I thought we were going to see a lower YOY decline in sales this September, however, that doesn’t seem to be the case. The market continues to trend downwards.
jb
No, I don’t believe Otteau is going to make the that data, or the September report, available to the public.
He mentioned that this data was only going to be provided to those who attended the seminar (which cost me a big fat 89 bucks).
jb
the numbers are truly amazing.
50% of all Hudson Gold Coast condo purchases were by speculators.
And they continue to build, build, build up and down the coast on speculation.
Approximately 10k units are still in the pipeline.
jb
JB,
Those are incredible #’s. I must now I admit, I have been wrong. It seems that I have been way too positive towards this market. I will have to revise my forecast. Great job Grim.
James Bednar Says:
November 3rd, 2006 at 4:59 pm
He mentioned that this data was only going to be provided to those who attended the seminar (which cost me a big fat 89 bucks).
jb
That will buy you more than two bottles of Laphroaig here…..
http://www.winelibrary.com/
Just some analysis I did on the lowball information you provided…
DOM tot sold %total avg % bel OLP st dev.
1-30 334 24.9% 2.8% 5.6%
31-60 341 25.4% 4.6% 5.8%
61-90 224 16.7% 7.4% 5.7%
91-120 179 13.3% 8.4% 7.6%
121-150 127 9.5% 10.1% 7.9%
151-180 80 6.0% 11.5% 6.4%
181-max 57 4.3% 13.1% 11.1%
From this you can conclude that houses on the market the longest get larger discounts and with std. deviation being larger you can get some good lowballs. However of course everything is predicated on the quality of the data, so any fishy business with relisting taints the information. This means if OLP’s are adjusted downward in the relisting, not only is the DOM reset, but it masks the actual amount discounted of OLP and the standard deviation in the offering price.
Instead of looking in this falling market I’m going to stay in my rent stabilized rental and I’m going out to take a hike and check out the foliage. Also softball game Sunday morning… Much better than looking at overpriced houses. Have a good weekend all. Maybe those realtors and developers will be a little sad, but cheer up at least you guys made good money in the last several years.
Wow, so much great info. Thank you
JB– what does Otteau define the high end as?
basically, sounds like if you take away the IO loans, you eliminate 1st buyers and the entire market is crushed.
Bob is right– if you are a buyer with cash, you own this market
“Sales of existing single-family homes in New York continued their downtrend in September. Realtors recorded 8,876 home sales in September, down 15.7 percent from the record 10,533 sales in September 2005.”
“The preliminary data showed a median selling price of $238,000 statewide in September, down 10.1 percent from $264,750 in August, and down 8.1 percent from the year-ago median of $259,000. ‘The reduction in the median sales price can be attributed to an increase in available inventory as the shift to a buyer’s market continues,’ said Charles M. Staro, NYSAR CEO.”
OK – can 2006 officially be crossed off?
How about 2007?
Where is the false bottom?
It appears that there will be a massive breakthrough in the Spring……however, watch out!!!!!!! Caveat Emptor – as it were…..
Hard Place,
Sounds good, maybe watch some college football, a little blogging, no leaves to rake, no winterizing the house, drink some of that red wine(SAS) and watch this market hibernate for the winter. Wait, it has been in hibernation since 9/05. Oh well, the Chinese water tortue goes on.
50% of all Hudson Gold Coast condo purchases were by speculators.
Interest-only mortgages accounted for 40% of all purchases in New Jersey in 2005.
Estimated that for every first time homebuyer purchase, 5 additional resales take place. So, for every 1st timer that holds back, 5 more sales never take place.
In 2005, speculators accounted for 28% of all sales across NJ.
40% IO LOANS
28% Speculator – Flippers
OH MY OH MY!!!
PATIENCE GRASSHOPPER!
BOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAA
Bob
In 2005, speculators accounted for 28% of all sales across NJ.
That’s a really big scary number, but I would bet it doesn’t even tell the whole story. New Jersey is a “bubble exporter”. In other words, many New Jersey speculators didn’t buy in NJ. They took out home equity loans on their paper gains to speculate in places like Florida, much the same way Californians played housing roulette in Arizona.
What happens when a NJ speculator gets in trouble in Florida? One house will have to go. I’ll bet many, at least those who can leave, will dump their NJ home along with its high taxes and cost of living and move to their spec condo in Florida.
Chi.,
2007, officially crossed off.
BE VERY WORRIED GRUBBERS
be very worried
What has happened is an outright disgrace by Greenscammer the NAR and the Politicians…
Alot of lives going to be impacted as this some to the positive for being to finally buy a house without signing the indentured contract (30% lower houses, 40-50% condos)
This is good overall for the economy the state of NJ and the future.
Let’s get it over with.
Have a great weekend or miserable in the case of starving begging realtors /Grubbing greedy dreaming sellers.
Boooooooyaaaaaaaa
Bob
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I have been following the real estate market since before we bought our current home in 1996. The plan was to stay in the house for five years and then move up. A lay-off in 2001 and the explosive housing market have kept us here. I have been waiting for the market to fall and so many didn’t understand my reasoning. I inherited some money a few years back and the lower the market goes, the more my extra cash will buy. Since we bought for $167,000 ten years ago, we won’t be taking a loss when we sell in our area (appraised at $450,000 in March and probably would have sold for that at the time looking at comprable sales). The questions is, will we even be able to sell this coming spring? We can sell without buying first (a necessity now) as we can stay with family for a few months.
Our house is a cape but bigger than your average cape – 5 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, large family room, eat-in kitchen, dead end street, low taxes (for the town – appealed tax reval and settled). I plan to get a 20 year mortgage for the amount that is left on my current mortgage. I’m pretty conservative and want to eventually have no mortgage.
Willow,
Sounds like you are pretty much in the driver’s seat. Is there anything stopping you from selling now? Lots of new homes will hit the market in the spring. Now is the time to sell before the panic sets in.
So if 28% of all buyers in 2005 were speculators/flippers, than the amount of volume in 2005 was overinflated by that much. Realtors should get used to the lower volumes. Also the smart speculators will sell quick and cut their losses. Leverage can be dangerous, providing large gains in an upward moving market, but also devastating losses in a declining market.
“Sounds like you are pretty much in the driver’s seat. Is there anything stopping you from selling now? Lots of new homes will hit the market in the spring. Now is the time to sell before the panic sets in.”
Finishing up some renovations – bathroom, new siding, painting, etc. – which we’re doing ourselves will keep us from selling until the spring. I figure that if we price competitively it won’t matter if the selling price is $350,000 or less when all the other houses will also be lower.
“basically, sounds like if you take away the IO loans, you eliminate 1st buyers and the entire market is crushed.”
Skeptic,
Just like watching a trading floor, all sales, no buys, market goes limit down. The realtors are getting flooded with sell orders. They hang up the phone and say, “Sell??? To whom, there are no buyers???
No surprise here. This blog had it pegged a long time ago. The data is and continues to be flawless.
Actually, anyone following this blog for a reasonable period of time has become so attuned, so adept to market conditions that those in denial just get obliterated when they try to present an opposing view. Not because we won’t listen to counter debate, but because it doesn’t hold any truth.
The speculative frenzy was mind boggling. Now, like all irrational bubbles, it’s time has come. And to think, this is just the beginning.
http://www.philly.com/mld/philly/15915825.htm
The Economy | Housing bust? Already over, several experts are saying
By Andrew Cassel
Inquirer Columnist
“But it’s only a temporary blip, Pozsar says, predicting productivity will rebound in the next month or so as housing-related employment shrinks.
Home prices should continue to shrink, too, at least for a while. Pozsar predicts a 5 percent fall in average home prices before the bottom arrives next summer.”
Where’s the bottom..who’s got the bottom. It’s like a shell game.
I thought this one was interesting:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/11/03/AR2006110300666.html
For Sale, By the Owner’s Ego
Feelings Often Play as Big A Role as Logic in Setting Prices, Research Finds
“Economic researchers have found that emotions are a bigger influence than was previously believed in how people make financial decisions…
“There’s a whole emotional processing system that goes on in the brain that’s largely beyond our control,” said Kevin McCabe, a professor of economics, law and neuroscience at George Mason University. “The general view is that our emotions control us, and not vice versa.”
It’s the greed/fear syndrome.
The housing bust… it’s on like Donkey Kong!
who is otteau and why should i believe him?
Zack,
Who is Toll Bros, Who is KB homes, Who is Kara, Who is Realty Trac??? Why should I believe them??
“Just to give you a taste, Otteau is looking for 15% declines by the end of 2007 and the luxury market might just never recover.”
15% down from what point? I’ve already seen 10%+ in the area that I follow. I’d love to see another 15% from here!
I can only believe those that came close to predicting current downtrend last year.
Chi,
I’ve been meaning to congratulate you on the birth of your dependent. Mazel tov to you and Mrs. Chi. A boy or girl?
Economic researchers have found that emotions are a bigger influence than was previously believed in how people make financial decisions…
Can anyone recommend a good resource for learning about buying foreclosures? I figure we will see many by next year. Plus, it would be nice to cut out unrealistic sellers from the picture, who believe a higher price than their neighbors got is their God given right, and deal directly with business people.
Just remember that even Otteau’s view, I assume, is economy “neutral”. Meaning that the working assumption is a stable economy throughout this period without recession.
If we get recession, to use an old French phrase – we are all f$c%ed!
Mr. Oliver Says:
November 3rd, 2006 at 9:58 pm
Chi,
I’ve been meaning to congratulate you on the birth of your dependent. Mazel tov to you and Mrs. Chi. A boy or girl?
Gato: A boy whose not pure goyim!
Merci!
Also thank you to everyone else who has passed along well wishes.
chicagofinance,
In other words, “send lawyers, guns and money, the sh*t has hit the fan.”
Also thank you to everyone else who has passed along well wishes.
Except – grim – the SLACKER!
Recession –
http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/136692/
1]Housing recession – Already experiencing a recession.
2]Auto recession – getting worse by the month as major auto makers are slashing production. Already experiencing a recession.
3] Manufacturing recession – two months of consecutive fall in industrial production. a manufacturing ISM that was borderline awful.
4] Service sector recession – Close to one. Wal-mart awful Oct numbers. the expected pick-up in sales for the holiday season is now fizzling away.
5] Employment – Steep drop in october numbers. sharp fall in construction (-26K) and manufacturing employment(-39K).
Q4 growth is headed to be even worse than the dismal Q3 and the economy is highly likely to enter into an outright recession by Q1 or at the latest Q2 of 2007.
A top executive at Caterpillar Inc., the U.S. heavy equipment maker, said late Thursday he believes 2007 will be a year of “significant slowdown” in the U.S. housing market.
http://money.cnn.com/2006/11/03/news/companies/caterpillar.reut/index.htm?postversion=2006110306
Pat:
“emotions are a bigger influence than was previously believed in how people make financial decisions”
I am so very not surprised.
To RentinginNJ’s #42: here’s a good place to learn about buying foreclosures:
http://www.njreclub.com
Welcome to your new job.
JB– what does Otteau define the high end as?
Top 20% of all sales in a market.
jb
Also thank you to everyone else who has passed along well wishes.
Except – grim – the SLACKER!
I took out a full page ad in the WSJ.. You wanted more?
Congrats man. My wife thinks we should drink your scotch and give you a buy buy baby card instead.. :)
Just some analysis I did on the lowball information you provided…
DOM tot sold %total avg % bel OLP st dev.
1-30 334 24.9% 2.8% 5.6%
31-60 341 25.4% 4.6% 5.8%
61-90 224 16.7% 7.4% 5.7%
91-120 179 13.3% 8.4% 7.6%
121-150 127 9.5% 10.1% 7.9%
151-180 80 6.0% 11.5% 6.4%
181-max 57 4.3% 13.1% 11.1%
Great analysis, I’m going to try to expand on this by including some additional lowball data.
jb
Price reduced posted up just below!
jb
JB and all others,
The sweetspot in the data seems to be 3-6 months. Find properties that have been sitting on the market and than lowball. With the larger st dev. in the higher DOM categories it seems you’ll eventually find a buyer willing to accept a lowball of 20% plus. Anecdotally, I have tested the data by lowballing some properties that have sat on the market. If they have not received offers in a while they will try to work with you. I however have my greenbacks in the market and CD’s, until the time is right.
https://njrereport.com/index.php/2006/11/04/no-new-taxes/
No new taxes?
I’m a renter like most of you. Will there be a rent reduction if property taxes are reduced? Will we get a check (proportional to property tax relief) in the mail depending on how much rent we pay? I would hate if my income tax dollars are used to fund some ARMed idiot’s property relief.
>>In 2005, speculators accounted for 28% of all sales across NJ.
where did you get that figure?
“Africa: Experts See China’s Trade ‘Tsunami’ Sweeping Continent”
http://allafrica.com/stories/200611030012.html
Why is this important? Americans are losing out to China. Does this effect you? yes, there goes your job, your currency goes down, and your kids will never get a job because some China man took it.
baby steps by China.
SAS
Met with Corzine yesterday, I pressed him on the real estate bubble. It was obviously a question he didn’t want to answer. He can off as if there is no bubble. I then replied with some hard facts, which he just brused off and introduced me to one of his supporters.
Corzine knows the shit is about to hit the fan, he just doesn’t want to say it because once RE goes down, so does NJ.
Have fun on the way down people ;)
SAS
Richard,
Otteau mentioned it in his presentation yesterday. I’m planning on sitting down with him in the next few weeks. I’d also like to get some more information on the both the mortgage and speculator stats that he mentioned.
Do I have your email address?
jb
SAS,
did that Corzine supporter offer any thoughts on the bubble?
SAS,
I think the problem is with how you model the world in your mind. We will fail If we continue to model chinese as some “China man”. I’m afraid complacency exists across all levels….
Most sellers in Union County targeting middle to high incomes (not highest) are still not getting it at all.
http://new.gsmls.com/public/detailLst.do?mlsNum=2335288
This woman had her house listed with another broker for $659k. She fired that broker and found a new one who agreed to list it for $659k. Its the brokers fault nobody is willing to pay $659 for a house that has a master bathroom located in… the basement?!? I kid you not. What they describe as a cul de sac is really just a dead end; there is a difference. The house is actually well done for the space but it is not in the ‘prestigious’ section of town (“the Top” near Baltusrol Golf Club).
I assume the owner is not in a hurry to move although its been a few months since I went to an open house there when all of the owners furniture was still in the house.
At that time, I actually respected the agent showing the house when I asked “why is the master bathroom two floors below the master bedroom in the basement?” The agent just shrugged her shoulders and rolled her eyes. She knew what she had on her hands and it was evident then that she knew she was not going to sell this house.
I feel a little bad for “good apples” among agents (the minority in my experience) who are honest and ethical and probably are not taking listings anymore for sellers who want 2005+ prices on their homes. I hope they can stick around long enough to weed out the plethora of shady agents out there.
“your currency goes down”
SAS,
How right you are . Everybody is is a lakadisical mood, thinking the dollar will always be king. They don’t take the time to see what is going on elsewhere. I don’t get it, maybe the soaps are more important. I have been beating the dollar drum longer than the RE drum. Nobody seems to be concerned. That’s OK. However, you can position yourself for this. There is a reson why the international community is buying the precious metals.
http://www.kitcocasey.com/displayArticle.php?id=1039
The dollar also lost ground yesterday on news of additional central bank diversification of their currency reserves. The United Arab Emirates, the second-largest Arab economy, will cut the dollars it holds by almost half to reduce its dependence on the weakening U.S. currency, Sultan Nasser al-Suwaidi, governor of the central bank, said on October 30. The Swiss Central Bank raised its holdings of yen and pared investments in dollars last quarter, as figures it released last week showed. And finally Russia is considering lifting holdings of yen in coming months according to the central bank’s first deputy chairman. All of these ‘reallocations’ will only continue the downward spiral of the dollar and could feed on each other, creating an all-out freefall as holders of the greenbacks rush toward the exits!
“did that Corzine supporter offer any thoughts on the bubble?”
No, she looked at me like she had no idea what I was talking about.
She was women running for some office in the Summit area. A real air head if you ask me. If it wasn’t for Corzine propping her up, she would of fallen over.
I was the lone ranger there because I was the only one willing to talk about the RE bubble. Which makes me believe, people are going through the “if I don’t think about it or talk about it, it won’t happen” mode.
ha
SAS
James Bednar Says:
November 4th, 2006 at 6:31 am
Congrats man. My wife thinks we should drink your scotch and give you a buy buy baby card instead.. :)
You know where to hit a guy where it hurts. :(
“No, she looked at me like she had no idea what I was talking about.
She was women running for some office in the Summit area.”
what do these people do all day that they are just so clueless? its frustrating.
“We will fail If we continue to model chinese as some “China man”.
ok, fair enough..
let me rephrase myself.
In the future, a highly educated, motivated, and hard working citizen from the Peoples Republic of China, whom is half your age will have your job and your childrens job.
We tell are kids to work hard, goto college to get a “good job”, but we should really be saying “word hard, goto college so you can somewhat compete with a highly educated, motivated, and hard working citizen from the Peoples Republic of China.
yee….
SAS
btw—
don’t anyone try to pull the “SAS is a racist towards China” card with me, because you will lose everytime.
I know how there are some whom like to go that route if they don’t like what they hear. (although, I am not pointing anyone out, just profolavtive measure).
Man, I haven’t had my morning coffee yet, and I have no beans. Crap…
SAS
“Otteau is looking for 15% declines by the end of 2007”
James,
Sorry if this was already posted but is that 15% off the 2005 peak or current prices? Thanks.
SAS,
“word hard, goto college so you can somewhat compete with a highly educated, motivated, and hard working citizen from the Peoples Republic of China.
”
that and if you don’t live up to the standards you will be making toys for Wal Mart so that they can be sold in China.
Realtors still don’t get it. This ad on craigs;
“ATTENTION: Anyone who wants to do an easy flip -this is a GOOD house”
That being said, this is not a bad asking price with reasonable taxes in a great town. I better lie down and take a couple of Tylenol’s.
http://newjersey.craigslist.org/rfs/226637680.html
If it’s such an easy “flip”, why doesn’t the seller just do it?
jb
China has that class too. i.e. They can do it all because they have all the people, of all classes.
In China, there is always someone willing to work for a lower wage. That is why even Mexico is losing jobs to China. Whew…thats pretty damn good if you can lowball the Mexicans…
Either way, it going to be tough future for the US. Right now, things are pretty symbiotic, but China is positioning itself for the upperhand, and doing it well. But, and its a huge BUT, China has a weak military. So, we will see.
btw- no racist comments about the mexicans either. Matter of fact, I have a cleaning lady from Mexico. She does a damn good job and is a damn good worker, and her husband cuts the ivy and shrubs on my house and does alot of handy work for me. I pay them damn good money too.
How much? Lets just say….more than some of you college grads ;) SAS is many things, but cheap is not one of them.
I tried to goto the housing projects to see if anyone was wanting the job. They all told me to “F*ck off, you white d*ck head”. Thats too bad, because if they would of even asked about the wage….well…. they might have pulled themselves up. But, I guess gin & tonic and rolling dice was more important.
SAS
SAS Says:
November 4th, 2006 at 9:23 am
btw—
don’t anyone try to pull the “SAS is a racist towards China” card with me, because you will lose everytime.
SAS – although you may not be a racist, “China Man” is offensive terminology, and you did come off as painting a broad stroke.
offensive terminology….. don’t be so yellow.
China is an adjective to describe the man. ok, that man can be a women too.
Some of you folks gotta quit being a wee nee or
You ain’t never gonna make it in the buisness world.
SAS
SAS
:)
btw—
the China man doesn’t take offense, its usually the silly, upper middle class white people whom take offense, can never figure that one out.
You call a China man. a China man, they take it with pride.
Just don’t call someone from China a japaneese man….if you do, he will knock you on your ass.
There is still a pretty deep rift between the chinese and japaneese.
SAS
“Increasingly, though, research shows that emotions play as big a role as intellect. Sam did a lot of market research and decided they should ask $269,000. The number came as a blow to Karyn, because she knew similar units, including some she thinks weren’t as nice, sold last year for $280,000.”
“‘You want to believe it’s worth a lot more because you’ve invested your time and energy on it,’ Karyn said.”
“‘It’s classic loss aversion,’ said Christopher J. Mayer at Columbia Business School in New York. ‘You don’t want to realize the loss. It leads to housing markets that don’t function very well. You’ve got a lot of houses on the market and they aren’t selling.’”
“Mayer said that people allow their wishful thinking to overcome realistic perceptions because they don’t want to view themselves as having made a mistake.”
“David Laibson, who teaches psychology and economics at Harvard University, said a common error people make is believing that homes can’t drop in value below what they paid for them, and, in particular, that they can’t fall below their mortgage amounts.”
“‘There seems to be a psychological resistance to taking losses on the sale of a house,’ Laibson said. ‘People think they’ll make money on it. . . . That logic worked for a long time, and now anyone who bet on that logic is being burned.’”
“Denis and Michael Budge put their two-bedroom house in Carson City, Nev., on the market a little more than a year ago at $495,000, so they could move to another home they had already bought in Waldport, Ore. After some nail-biting months with few showings and no offers, they finally landed a buyer, who signed a contract in June for $425,000.”
“But during the escrow period, as prices in their area continued to slide, the appraisal came in, at $395,000. The Budges were still willing to sell, even at that greatly reduced price, but the buyer backed out the day before the closing. Now they are stuck with two mortgages. ‘We thought we were going to relax and enjoy our retirement,’ says Ms. Budge. ‘Not any more.’”
“Amy Crews Cutts, deputy chief economist at Freddie Mac says the current jitters are largely a result of investors fleeing the housing market in the last few months, which ’slammed (it) into reverse,’ and consumers’ fears that the bubble had burst. The result: a huge backlog of unsold homes, which could further depress prices.”
WORRY GRUBBERS
WORRY!
This will happen to you while you insist on your fairy tale prices….
Bring it on! No Commish…no sales and PLUNGING prices…..
BOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAA
Bob
BC Bob,
that Rumson listing throws me for a loop. It sure is a decent asking price, why is the realtor billing it as a flip? I don’t get it. Am I missing something? Why wouldn’t a buyer just live there? I don’t see how you could go far wrong. Doesn’t look that big a “plain Jane” to me. We’ve all seen much worse I’m sure priced higher.
I guess I’ve been watching the market too long. I better take a cold shower and a Tylenol before I jump on this.
thanks for the link.
and one more excert:
No law requires that buyers be in the country legally in order to purchase real estate, Acosta said. Citibank, for instance, doesn’t require that borrowers be citizens or legal residents of the United States, Citigroup spokeswoman Janis Tarter said.
YUOu all talking about Chineese here – may be it is time to go out on the streets with signs: America For Americans????
Remember – average white family have 2.14 kids. Average shispanic family have 4.1kids – in 2 generations we are all minority… And we are concerned with politicall correectness – remember they willl not be, so when you can not get a home loan 30 yeaars down the road because you are white – remember you let this happen
“so when you can not get a home loan 30 yeaars down the road because you are white – remember you let this happen”
oh Al baby…..
you just opened a can of worms.
I’m outta this one.
;)
SAS
oh Al baby…..
you just opened a can of worms.
I’m outta this one.
;)
SAS
Altitude like this – that is th problem. Do you really believe it is not a problem???
Are you living in some other USA?? or you are planning on immigration when it gets bad???
I am dead serious – where are you going to go 30 years down the road – or your kids going to go??
Look at France right now….
Debt to income ratio …add all on your monthly CREDIT obligations and put them in the numerator of a fraction. Then place the household GROSS income in the denomintor. That ratio is what lender use to evaluate your ablility to re-pay a loan. Generally, you should be at 24/36 i.e. 24% of your gross income should go to your mortgage including taxes and insurances. And spend no more then 36% of your income toward all of your creditors. Thid does not include hhld expenses such as phone bill, elec. etc…
Competing against dummies with no common sense or care in the world is what’s plunging prices down now….
ACCEPT IT GRUBBERS PRICES ARE PLUNGING AND YOUR FAIRY TALE PRICES ARE A JOKE…
POOOOOOOOOFFFFFFF GOES THE EQUITY..
BOOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAAA
Bob
that is ridiculous
do not have to be us citizens to be homeowners?
this country is going down the tubes fast
i am really getting angry with the level of
slime these people will resort to keep this
ponzi going
maybe i will buy a shack in the woods and stock
up on food and guns
f**k** unreal
“that Rumson listing throws me for a loop”
twice shy,
It did the same to me.I used to live close by. In 2004-2005, that asking price would have been 650-800K. Who knows what is is like inside but you are right. With all the s*it on the market for the ridiculous prices, this listing got my interest. That price in that town???? The RFH school district is one of the best in the state. Ironically, asking prices for dumps in Hudson County are much more and with much higher prices. I may even take a visit!!
SAS – Why do you continue?
Canada man?
Mexico man?
Yankee man?
Do you call them that?
All labels. Stop your rant and post something worthwhile about the housing bubble.
“Look at France right now”
Agreed. We will look like France, have the poitical influence as say France or England, and have the immigration problems in the distant future.
I am really not that agaist immigrants, I am just agaisnt all the people who suck the tit of the government and collect every god damn benefit known to man. They are like bees/bears to honey. (can’t remember how the saying goes).
You wanna get rid of the “illegal” immigrant problem, get rid of all these tit sucking low lifes on the dol. That easy.
But, like they say s*#t in one hand, and wish in the other.
This is how I sum up the hoods: “you can’t free a slave whom loves his chains” Not not only applys to the hoods, but the trailers, and ever other person who takes the handouts, and can’t get up before noon…and those SOBs who can’t work because they have a “hurt back”. You know how many people with a “hurt back” abuse the system. God damn wimps.
I slipped a disk once, and i still built a garage with my buddy Juan. Juan is another Mexican. Juan is a great guy, works hard. Although, he can’t speak a lick of English…..
crap, I gave into you Al ;)
Now, here come the head hunters. Sit back, this is going to get interesting.
Get ready with the edit buttom Grim…hehe…..yee….
SAS
Earlier someone said that the Luxury Market may never recover….well, I am in Upper Saddle River (Bergen County) NJ, and about half the houses on the market are spec built luxury homes (5000SF+), all going for about $2.5-3.5m. These were $1.5m 7 years ago when I bought (I couldn’t afford them then either).
Teardowns on an acre are going for $850k (they were going for $400k when I bought, and I live in one I fixed up). I suspect it costs the builder about $750k (being generous) to build, so and investment of $1.5m, priced to sell for only $2.5m, well above the typical 20% markup. By my calcs these should sell for $1.9m.
Now, not many of these houses haved moved in the last 6 months, but the prices have absolutely not budged. I suspect these specs are sitting on some cheap money, but the oppotunity cost must be huge. Financing $1.5m even at treasury rates of 5% costs $7k/month. That kind of carry cost would compel me to lower my price, but I wonder, what is their secret?
“All labels. Stop your rant and post something worthwhile about the housing bubble.”
Labels? labels are for wine.
I can’t help it if the Chineses own your mortgages.
If that ain’t real estate, I don’t know what is ?
yes?
cheerio.
SAS
JB,
I’m curious, did you run into any reporters at the seminar.
Thanks, Rich
“you can’t free a slave whom loves his chains”
SAS,
Courtesy of the Eagles;
Sometimes we live our lives in chains and never even know we have the key. (Already Gone)
Sept. inventory in Bergen Co. is as follows:
Sub $600: 7 months
600-1m: 12 months
1m-2.5m: 17 months
2.5m+: 20
jb
I didn’t run into any reporters.
jb
Re: Rumson House
Paid $295k in 2000 according to tax records. The ad says he’s a bachelor. He probably could care less what his neighbors sold their homes for last year and just wants out before he gets stuck with the house. Moreover, he can rent the same size house in Rumson for $2500 or he can move to Red Bank or Sea Bright and get the same amount of space for $2000. He must be a bubble blog reader.
Little_Silvered,
Thanks for the info. It seems like anybody else who paid 295k in 2000 is asking at least 600-800k.
Al,
I believe this to be Realtor ploy to rush home sales. Citibank is not foolish enough to lend large amounts (0.5M+) to someone without any documentation.
If they do that then i will start buying more gold.
I’m seeing a lot of super high end spec just sitting in my area w/o major price reductions. the only thing I can think is that these builders isolate each project in a separate legal entity so that they will not feel the effects if their banks foreclose. otherwise, I would think they’d be more aggressive in trying to sell
interesting thought: what if you are looking for a home and ask the realtor for recent comps in the area? If the realtor doesnt show you the lowball houses that sold recently (so as to make sure u dont go too low on bidding price), how will you know?
I was at the NJ Chapter of the American Planning Association yesterday. Two things to report, Jim Hughes was there and made a couple of comments regarding NJ and the loss of high paying jobs. High housing costs were partly attributed to our nlack of competitiveness(?). Apparently corzine has a huge push on for a “systems” based economic development program, what ever the hell that means, but housing will be part of it.
The second thing of note, at my table during the lunch was a representative of the NJ Builders Association. I asked him how the market is out there for builders, he said “Great”. I could not tell if he was clueless (which he seemed) or if he was spouting the party line.
“Jobless rate at 5-year low, fanning fears of inflation”
good think to flip through… but I always take what these birds say with a grain of salt.
I don’t always believe what they say…
http://www.mercurynews.com/multimedia/mercurynews/news/mn_jobsreport_110406.pdf
SAS
post election rate hikes anyone?
I think so.
SAS
SAS,
I think so just fromthe rumblings of some of the fed board members, and the fact that productivity has slowed.
http://tinyurl.com/yh84rn
btw—
the China man doesn’t take offense, its usually the silly, upper middle class white people whom take offense, can never figure that one out.
You can justify yourself any way you want, but the connotation of what you said was negative. And why would you assume I’m A. Upper middle class or B. White?
“I didn’t run into any reporters.”
Thanks.
So this information will never be seen my in the media and by the public at large.
I’m looking forward to your write up on the seminar.
You should set up a “tip jar” with PayPal so we can all at least help compensate you for the seminar.
Rich
“You can justify yourself any way you want, but the connotation of what you said was negative. And why would you assume I’m A. Upper middle class or B. White?”
1) depends on who you ask. yes? I just know I have been to China many times, not a one time did anyone take offense. Only time I ever ofended a Chinese is when I told a guy I thought he looked japaneese. yes, now that was stupid on my part.
2) who said I was refering to you? since when does people = you?
now, back to my tofuti cutie…
(its an ice cream bar)
;)
SAS
is there a way for joe schmoe (like me) to lookup mls listing for stufff that sold or is under contract? or are we limited to stuff that is currently on the market?
I know this thread is open, but please tone down the nonsense. If this stuff gets your rocks off, maybe you should go see Borat.
SAS,
#1 I love Tofutti. Thank you for being someone that can share that too!
#2 As far as the “racist” comments go, I know exactly where you’re coming from. But you are trying to explain to people who have absolutely no understanding of that. The way you wrote it, it’s obvious to me that the person who would be saying those things would be looking to blame someone for their own misfortune, and with that, come the racist comments.
Don’t sweat it. I know you’re not.
ok, I will switch gears. Just trying to bring a more global perspective to the blog. The butterfly flapping overseas does effect you….. if you think not….wait till you lose your job, perhaps then you may think otherwise.
but, I did go way off topic and got drawn in, for that I apologize to the blog….
Lets smoke the peace pipe.
Speaking of smoke. Going to go out to my favorite smoke shop, to smoke a good cigar with a glass of scotch.
Ahhh…. I can’t wait.
SAS
Dudes – I just think it is an anachronism, reagrdless of the intent, and at a minimum it is provocative.
As a result, it can be categorized as a distraction.
I would be offended to the extent that it blights grim’s work.
The little amount of work he does because he is a SLACKER.
Shytown,
I love your vocab…
SAS
I’m not offended, either SAS, and try to look for the overreaching observation you’re describing.
It’s easy to focus on language used as intent, rather than stated concept, because the concept is more difficult. And once someone hears a label or term they think is negative, they feel emotion, and want to attack the language rather than think about the concept.
I appreciate your thoughts on international trade, but do think the language used blocks more discussion.
P.S. I’ve been watching Asian REI and who’s doing financing lately, and there are some interesting investments being made right now.
The amount of land and planned space in India for more IT development is spectacular. Risky, but I think it’s paying off earlier than later.
I’m watching for the next batch for Superdome Medical infrastructure, and thinking a public airport might go to.
What do you think?
FSBO seller who also listed on GSMLS for a flat fee. Offering 2.5% to buyer’s agent. They don’t lose unless they sold my house and were also the listing agent, who now has been cut out. Good house, but little action. Constant calls from realtors hoping I will go with full service 5-6% plan. Wondering if they blackball you from bringing potential buyers out on principle. Notice that on Weichert, Century 21, etc. my GSMLS # isn’t shown by my town, even when they search all other properties other than their company’s. Hum.
hey sas i think the anon guy is the pc police
rant on i enjoy your rants
I’m sure that I have been out of the loop and missed people’s comments on this…….however, it reads like an airbrushed photo, full of white lies and distortions. Blech!
http://promo.realestate.yahoo.com/
rojasmas Says:
“FSBO seller who also listed on GSMLS for a flat fee. Offering 2.5% to buyer’s agent. Good house, but little action. Constant calls from realtors hoping I will go with full service 5-6% plan. Wondering if they blackball you from bringing potential buyers out on principle.”
I am also selling flat fee GSMLS with 2.5% to buyer’s agent. We have had a steady stream of lookers, just no offers. We haven’t gotten a single call from realtors wanting to list with them. I don’t think you are getting blackballed as realtors don’t care where the money is coming from. I would say you are probably asking too much for the house and need to price more appropriately for the current market.
Rachel
Cough, Cough. Is this microphone working?
Kendra Todd. Kendra Todd report to the blog with proof of your purchases in the last two months. Repeat, Kendra Todd, report to the blog with proof of purchase.
;P
Clotpoll, Glad youre back. to be clear about a scammer. The true definition is:
a confidence game or other fraudulent scheme, esp. for making a quick profit; swindle.
In general Realtors will work a confidence game for making a quick profit.
Although the article focuses on Long Island, just thought it was interesting that this particular developer decided to downscale the homes in this new development to target the pocketbooks of first time homebuyers.
Although the article focuses on Long Island, just thought it was interesting that this particular developer decided to downscale the homes in this new development to target the pocketbooks of first time homebuyers.
Sorry, the link didn’t “take” the first time:
http://www.newsday.com/business/realestate/ny-bznew4948034oct27,0,4809606.column?coll=ny-realestate-headlines
Spelunker–
I love sentences that begin “In general…”. Why not just say, “This isn’t based in fact, but…”?
Is it possible for you to communicate via any mode other than invective and blanket statements against an entire group of people? You don’t know me, you don’t know my work…and I’m not a swindler.
Every other organized market on the planet seems able to eventually weed out scammers and charlatans. If you don’t perceive enough transparency to believe the same is true of RE, maybe it’s you who are blind.
Up your game.
Clotpoll,
If you are looking for a government funded research paper that says that Realtors are scam artists it probably does not exist. However, I do not need a paper of that nature to understand fundamental facts like sh*t GENERALLY stinks, blood is GENERALLY red and Realtors are GENERALLY swindlers. I think you will find that people GENERALLY agree with these findings and would require no further proof of the facts. To suggest that i am blind to the just cause of the Realtor is absolute absurdity that speaks tomes of your hubris. My friend i really have nothing else to say to you. Let us just say that we disagree greatly on the topic of realtors and their role on this planet.
Again, i do not know if you are a Realtor and I do not care. I will say again that if i have offended you i do apologize. You are probably a nice chap at home.
“Realtors are GENERALLY swindlers”
you got that right. Anyone with a 3 dollar suit, speaks english, and has a driver license can be a RE agent. i.e low standards, therefore attracts the wrong crowd, looking to “get rich quick in RE”.
What is the role of an RE agent other than to take a commision from people? Never really understood their purpose? their role?
Can they be trusted when they have a vested interest in that they make more money if you spend more money?
How do we know they are showing the best deals and not just trying to trick people into spending more money by feeding people a line of crap. Lets get honest.
Someone….just someone tell me what good are they?
oh yeah, if you do respond….you can’t be a realtor.
Ever notice only realtors think realtors are important…?.
ha…..
SAS
Spelunker,
watch your back or the PC police will come after you too.
lol…. just kidding…..
tell you what Spelunker, it will be a cold day in hell before SAS and guys like me edit their speech in the fear that we might hurt some chaps inner child……
SAS
I think there is a true need for a professional mediator in the real estate transaction. It’s too infrequent and time-consuming to become a common consumer activity.
But the current title role isn’t winning any fans..from either end. Can’t represent one end, take the fee, and expect to be loved or respected.
Honestly, some day, I’d love to hear new parents look into their baby’s crib and say, “Just look at my little Hunter (for example), isn’t he talented..some day we hope he grows up to be a Realtor(TM).
Now, when the profession gets that kind of respect, THAT’S the right way.
What would it take to get there? Training, financial skills, independent reviews, and processes similar to those provided by independent financial counselors.
(sermon ends; congregation rolls eyeballs)
This guy is very problematic.
“Chavez Threatens to Halt Oil to U.S.”
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/061104/venezuela.html?.v=3
“Training, financial skills, independent reviews, and processes similar to those provided by independent financial counselors.”
hear…hear…
good point.
SAS
Sorry getting into the party late.
As I was going through the posts I have a few things to comment on.
Interesting how they want to let the illegal immagrants buy houses to try and save there necks. I do not agree with it. I have many friends who came here legally and waited 5-7 years from Dominican replublic, mexico who have legal status here which I am fine that way. But if you let illegal immagrants buy houses its going to be more of an expense to us. I mean before they try and make a ruling they need to figure out what to do with all the illegal immagrants, let them stay or send them back, just make a decision. Honestly I think we should let them stay, so than they can start paying taxes and paying for healthcars, social security. Friend of my moms had lots of problems getting her social security becuase of the fact it was used by illegal immagrants.
My point is its going to make the whole situation go to worse if you don’t have to be a citizen or have a green card to buy a house.
I mean what do mortage companies plan on running the same scam on them as they have been doing to people in the past 5 years?
I am really trying not to get into the whole argument about status, but if they become become citizens it will make it a lot better for this state and a lot harder for mortage companies to try and keep running there scam mortages. I think they will be a lot less strict on mortage apps for illegal immagrants. They will probably also let them have a lot of poeple on the mortage to be able to get them approved. And thats not right to do just becuase they are trying to save themeselves. I hope the government prevents this, not becasue I dont think that illegals should not be able to buy a house, but becuase I think in the long run it will make things 100000 worse than things already are and are going to be.
On to one more quick thing. I see that people are talking about The Chinese. Interesting enough in Lincoln Park, there is a chinese church and they tried to rezone some of there land and build condos and stores and did not want them to have to pay property tax becuase they were part of the Church…LOL well that didnt happen. Talk about being cheap and trying to rip off the government
Good little connection to RE in this article that I didn’t think about…
Now that the housing market is cooling and will become ice cold. This is going to have an psychological influence on the “wealth effect” of many people. Gets the high end car market is the first to feel it.
“Luxury vehicle demand seen slowing”
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20061103/lf_nm/autos_luxury_dc;_ylt=AmN1XNZVymy1TCZdUQhO7b9JTb8F;_ylu=X3oDMTA5aHJvMDdwBHNlYwN5bmNhdA–
Chi, I recently picked up a bottle of Johnny Green. Very nice, way smooth.
Have you had this?
I’ve been doing some research on Ridgewood, a town I’ve been looking at for a while. Of all the $1MM+ homes sold in the last 6 months, about half of the buyers used ARMs to finance their purchase. That was kind of surprising, given the amounts involved and the supposed wealth of that town. I don’t know what the rates were 6 months ago, but currently, the rate gap between fixed-rate and ARMs just isn’t that significant. So the story makes less and less sense. I hope these buyers know what they’re doing.
“I hope these buyers know what they’re doing.”
I don’t. Easy pickins when these idiots hit the wall.
Who knows how many realtors are on this site. Seems like they know their time is numbered. With the internet and sites like Zillo.com how long can they last? Service? Open houses? Realtors don’t want to pay for them either. The guy who started Expedia.com is also behind Zillow.com. The travel agency has never been the same. Give it time.
Watch the movie, “Limony Snicketts” starring Jim Carrey. Glenn Close’s character has a fear of realtors. Trying to sell a house I now get the joke.
Not sure I understand the reaction to hearing that non-US citizens own property in the US or that US banks are willing to lend to people who want to buy it. Surely you didn’t think only Americans owned property in the US?
Not sure where I stand on the illegal immigration issue, but I know that if they’re buying houses, they’re paying taxes.
First post. Think the blog is great. I work for a large pharma in Central NJ. If I attempt to check the comments section from my company computer, I’m blocked by adminstration. I receive a page claiming that this site is blocked since it offers material relating to criminal activities. (Maybe the administrator is has interested in RE :) ). Wish I was at work, I would post the warning message. Any ideas as to why I receive this message?
“Curb appeal alone can sell a house”
Curb appeal my *ss??? Proximity to NY, my *ss, Real Estate never drops, my *ss, they are not building land anymore, my *ss. Biggest bust in US RE history??? Yes. Bob Toll, when was the last time you saw a RE market decline like this with no specific macroeconimic event to ignite the fire??
Politely,
That can’t be happening in Ridgewood!! That’s a well healed town, Wall Street!!! Don’t you know that those towns are immune to this bust???
I bet they don’t admit to their neighbors that they have an ARM!! Seriously, is that true??? 50% of the buyers of these properties are ARM”s??
RentNow:
Review your company’s policy for internet use.
If the policy permits you to use the internet for work-only related topics, you might me out of luck.
If the policy (very common) permits you to use the internet at any time for work-related use, but personal use during lunch/breaks/after work, then send an e-mail to your systems team (not your local desktop support person) and request them to permit access to this site. Reasons to name, if they send you a form: Relocation and local economy comparison; local news.
Rojasmas,
That was Meryl Streep. But yes very funny.
Spelunker–
Nice to see your ten-cent intellect has shifted into overdrive. Comparing the behavior of a group of people to objects…you must’ve been the ace of your HS debate team.
SAS: not trying to edit anyone’s speech here. Just trying to get the level of debate up above the Morton Downey line. I really have no argument with the assertion that huge numbers of Realtors are underskilled and unworthy of professional compensation. But to go from there and make a blanket statement about the entire profession? The only indictment there is your own lazy mind.
Rojasmas: Zillow? Are you kidding me? Here’s a great business model:
1. Set up a website for sellers to post homes for sale.
2. Cook up an algorithm that allows buyers to obtain “Zestimates” of the homes’ “actual” values.
3. Feed old and incorrect data into the algorithm.
4. Post scores of inaccurately-low price estimates RIGHT NEXT TO the asking prices of your customers. On many occasions, “Zestimates” will be tens-to hundreds- of thousands less than the asking prices. Bet that will make customers happy!
The CEO of Zillow has publicly acknowledged the inadequacy of his algorithm (will try to post a link later to a video featuring him). But I’m sure it worked great for plane tickets!
http://www.phillyburbs.com/pb-dyn/news/82-11022006-736170.html
Bedbugs.
For anyone in NYC/immediate area, is this VERY common, or still unusual?
the truth is we have no way of knowing how much realtors’ services are worth because there is not a competitive market for these services.
we can look at other industries whose members perform similar functions, but of course any comparison will be imperfect.
deregulation and the internet crushed stock brokers and travel agents. of course, you can argue that RE is different than stocks and cruises, but the question is how much different is it really?
RE transactions are more complicated than stock trades. Yet how many realtors are truly competant in the transactional aspects of the job? Realtors receive very little if any training in secured transactions, RE law, finance, etc.
Moreover, it is difficult for realtors to promote themselves as transactional experts given that anything beyond filling in the blanks on a form crosses the line into practicing law without a license. And before any brokers start making the comparison between their industry and lawyers, ask yourselves whether RE brokers can be sued for malpractice.
The point is that it really difficult to determine what transactional value realtors add to the sale, if any.
Which leads us back to marketing. When it comes to marketing, realtors have not been very innovative. basically, RE marketing seems to consist of putting something up on MLS and then submitting the same blurb to the local paper. only for the very high end are realtors doing anything creative as far as I can tell.
besides the advertising, realtors show the house. again, nothing very groundbreaking here. do realtors do a lot of research and “microtargeting” to find likely buyers, like marketers do in other industries?
do they do research to determine how much people value certain aspects of particular locations/homes to help them price more accurately?
again, the question comes back to what exactly do realtors DO to earn their 6%? once the industry is deregulated, we will find out
I was just reading about SAS’s china man comments and Al’s concern for the direction of this country. I have to say that we’ve got problems all the way around, including dirty politics. Is there any doubt that the liberals set up these guys Haggard and Foley to out them a few days before the election to hurt the republican party? The greatest danger to this country is the liberal ideology that says everything is ok. Now granted, Haggard and Foley shouldn’t have been doing what they were doing, but there’s no doubt in my mind that a liberal cabal is behind all of this by entrapping them and spilling the beans to the press. Hell, for all we know they could have been plants placed by the liberals to pull out later at an opportune time.
The democrats gaining the house may make even me turn bearish on real estate and the economy.
“but I know that if they’re buying houses, they’re paying taxes”
Many illegals pay taxes in the hopes that one day they will become citizens. Paying taxes for x amounts if years helps to become a US citizen.
The IRS doesn’t care of your illegal or not, just as long as you pay taxes. Sad, but true.
SAS
Clotpoll,
“I really have no argument with the assertion that huge numbers of Realtors are underskilled and unworthy of professional compensation.”
Do you agree that these underskilled and unworthy Realtors scamed buyers?
How may people have the time and energy to sell a house themselves. A realtor is useful for selling but not necessary for buying.
Six percent commission is frequently quoted for realtor commission. I’m sure you are aware that the realtor takes a split of that amount; four ways, I believe.
does the customer care how much the realtor’s commission is split? If I’m selling a $1M house, all I know is that it costs me $60,000 to use a realtor (whether she spends 10 hrs or 1000 on the sale).
most people probably do not have the time to do this themselves, but that does not mean that they still don’t feel ripped off by the 6% commission structure
Late to the party as usual, but I need to go back to the beginining.
JB, in post 7 you said:
Estimated that for every first time homebuyer purchase, 5 additional resales take place. So, for every 1st timer that holds back, 5 more sales never take place.
I think you’re confusing correlation with causation here. Did Otteau mention any connection, i.e. job creation related to the purchase of a home by a first-time homebuyer?
Also, on the 15% down, is that a decline in sales volume or a decline in price?
FYI, I’ve been monitoring ask-prices in Monmouth/Ocean. Since July (when I started) prices have declined about 4-5% overall, a little more for TH/condos than SFHs.
If these two issues were addressed somewhere earlier in the thread I apologize as I wanted to write this before I moved on to something else.
“I’ve been doing some research on Ridgewood, a town I’ve been looking at for a while. Of all the $1MM+ homes sold in the last 6 months, about half of the buyers used ARMs to finance their purchase. That was kind of surprising, given the amounts involved and the supposed wealth of that town. I don’t know what the rates were 6 months ago, but currently, the rate gap between fixed-rate and ARMs just isn’t that significant. So the story makes less and less sense. I hope these buyers know what they’re doing.”
I have wondered how all of the people who have bought in the last few years have been able to afford the houses they have bought. I have come to the conclusion that they are way overextended and used ARMs. It has never made sense to me to overextend just for a house. Whatever happened to buying a starter house? I guess it’s priorities and a house has never been my priority. Our house is comfortable and we couldn’t rent a two bedroom apartment in our town for what we pay in mortgage/taxes a month because we bought 10 years ago. Do I want to move up from my starter house? Sure but not at a huge expense that will give us another 30 year mortgage.
looks like at one realtor realizes the 6% commission structure is doomed…
from the Stamford Advocate:
**********
Former Cendant official joins Help-U-Sell
Help-U-Sell, a fee-for-service real estate brokerage franchise with corporate offices in Irvine, Calif., and Castle Rock, Colo., has named Jon Meschke as vice president of franchise sales.
Formerly vice president of national sales for the Real Estate Franchise Group of Cendant Corp., now known as Realogy, he will focus on new franchise sales in the company’s growth areas. Entrepreneur magazine named Help-U-Sell as No. 15 on its list of the top 100 fastest growing companies in the country for 2005.
“you don’t have to be a citizen or have a green card to buy a house.”
You never did. Plenty of rich foreigners own RE in Manhattan area.
And of course the opposite is true, plenty of Americans own real estate in foreign countries where THEY aren’t citizens or immigrants. What do you think the locals think of US holiday home owners in places where they have forced up the price of RE?
REinvestor101:
“Is there any doubt that the liberals set up these guys Haggard and Foley”
I thought you Repubs believed in personal responsibility.
Lindsey,
I’ll ask Otteau for more information on the 1/5 numbers. My take is that the first time buyer is the first mover that enables 4 additional upsize, downsize, or relocation sales.
15% is price.
jb
SAS,
On your run-in with the Corzine people:
I think you need to be a little easier on them. I don’t know the situation you were in, but I doubt there are many people prepared for an in-depth RE market discussion at a generic political event.
I’m sure Corzine has thought about it some, but he might have been very out of his comfort zone talking about it, and a smart person (which I think Corzine is) knows enough to shut up about things he doesn’t know a lot about.
If you were in some sort of RE forum of course none of this applies, because they should have been ready to talk about it.
BTW SAS,
I saw no racism, xenophobia or anything else in your “China Man” comment. I think pretty much everyone here is just trying to keep their posts as short and reasonable as possible, and there are just some terms that trip us up.
Unfortunately, your linguistic choice took on a life of its own and instead of the serious point you were making, (Which I took as: It is quite easy to hire a person in China, which has crazy low wages, to do work that can also be done here.) being addressed.
There are obvious macro differences and approaches to the economy in China than here.
That doesn’t mean one of us is good and one is bad, but the difference in approach (Usually expressed as: China is very interested in full employment, we are interested in low consumer prices) has broad implications for the way people live.
Those decisions and approaches are seen as big factors behind the creation of the global imbalances and out of line currency valuations that BC Bob and you were discussing.
There’s more, but I just wanted to get that out.
Lindsey,
I always say…”if you can’t take the heat, get your ass out of the kitchen”
It was a round table discussion, open to the public, but genreal public didn’t ask questions, just those at the forum.
It was just song, dance, and lip service. A more of a “look people, we are working”. I was totally disappointed with it. Corzine is smart, I will give him that, he just doesn’t give a shit. He just wants to be elected.
First they make money, then they want power….
SAS
Good little article for someone thinking about taking time off to give birth. There was a time in this country we got plenty of time off with pay to have a baby. Sadly, those days are gone.
In any case, its a good read.
“Give a Break to Americans Giving Birth”
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/04/business/04instincts.html?_r=1&oref=slogin&pagewanted=print
SAS
SAS,
At the very least if they(corzine and company)were caught somewhat “blindsided” they should listen to what a citizen is saying as a take away for homework. However i cant believe he is completely clueless about the market. I have to believe he has an opinion of the housing market in his home state.
While public officials deserve to be spoken to with respect i dont necessarily believe they deserve a break. Its a tough job, or at least it is supposed to be.
RE the Rumson House:
I’ve got to run, but do the math: $550K
20% deposit means a $440K loan, even at 6% you’re talking $2,700. Through in taxes,utilities, and maintenance and you’re at $3,400 per month. That means a monthly income of better than $10K for affordability.
Spelunker,
“i cant believe he is completely clueless about the market”
No, they are not clueless. They are well aware. They just don’t want to talk about the RE market, especially days before elections.
I by no means give politicans a break, if they are going to take my hard earned money and piss it down the drain, they better be prepared to hear my wrath. If not, give me my tax money back, so I can buy a $300 pair of jeans.
I guess I can be too much he he….
One time, when I was at a meeting down under (Australia), I pressed a guy so much and started to heckle him, he cracked a bottle over my head. The god dam aussie KO’d me for about 15 seconds… he he… that was alot of fun that day.
Needless to say, our team got kicked out, and we didn’t get the deal. oh well…
SAS
JB will you posting additional coments on the Otteau seminar you attended Fridy?
You are doing an excellent job! Go Grim!
Jay
Anyone know how many Retail jobs or % of retail jobs their are in NJ?
As for me, I will try to spend less this year.
“Retail sales slow ahead of holiday shopping”
http://www.boston.com/business/globe/articles/2006/11/03/retail_sales_slow_ahead_of_holiday_shopping/
“First they make money, then they want power”
Can’t resist this one. From the Boss, (Badlands);
Baby I got my facts
learned real good right now
You better get it straight darling
Poor man wanna be rich,
rich man wanna be king
And a king ain’t satisfied
till he rules everything
Sorry,
Had to drop the boy off at the soccer season wrap-up pizza party.
But I wanted to get back to the Rumson house.
It’s 1,500 Sq. ft. I don’t see how you could make any money on a flip without an addition, and then of course you’re going into the teeth of a real estate downturn. At $300-$350K this starts to be a possible flip for a truly daring individual.
Also,
Congrats CF,
As Lou Reed says,
“It’s the beginning of a great adventure.”
Jay #169,
Please change your blog name. There is already a regular poster using that name – me!
Thanks,
Jay
“SAS Says:
November 5th, 2006 at 11:52 am
Good little article for someone thinking about taking time off to give birth. There was a time in this country we got plenty of time off with pay to have a baby. Sadly, those days are gone.’
Don’t know when that was – before 1992 you were entitled to nothing at all, and way before that could be fired for pregnancy or refused hiring on the basis that you MAY become pregnant.
US family laws suck and always have.
Re post 164 (SAS)
I have been to more than my share of those political song-and-dance parties, they are always essentially worthless.
Who can say what Corzine thinks he’s doing at this point, I was kind of hoping he had dreams of being president and so would bust his butt to improve things in the state to show what a fine leader he was. Maybe he just found out that the mess is bigger than he expected and he can’t figure out how to deal with it.
He’s done some things I like and some things that make me think we’re in for more of the same crap that has been going on forever. I’m not holding my breath or anything, but sooner or later muddling through is not going to work. The ugliness of what not getting things under control means is too much to think about, of course the external ugliness doesn’t cheer me up much either.
I gotta get out from under this horrible dark cloud.
lisoosh,
I guess I was refering to a long…long time ago and thinking more of small buisnesses. My mistake.
“US family laws suck and always have”
I totally agree.
SAS
Lindsey,
Agreed. Hear…Hear….
SAS
Speaking of family leave….
I am proud to say that our outfit provides women with full pay and benfits for 12 weeks for maturnity leave and I want to up it to 16 weeks (before the spring arrives)
god damn, why am I so nice? I will never retire at this rate.
SAS
REINVESTOR101 Says:
November 5th, 2006 at 8:47 am
Is there any doubt that the liberals set up these guys Haggard and Foley to out them a few days before the election to hurt the republican party?
RE: I wanted Haggard to use the old Marion Barry quote – “bitch set me up”.
SAS,
Thought you would be interested;
Gold still aiming at $1,000 an ounce – but when?
“A declining U.S. dollar is likely to grab center stage in gold’s trek to new highs in 2007,”
“the glut of the dollar debt in central banks around the world is approaching a critical level,” Schmidt said, and central banks are slowing their acquisition of U.S. debt, which will further weaken the dollar.
And the economy will enter recession in the first quarter of 2007, he said, depressing the greenback even further.
Overall, a global shift from the dollar continues while our trade imbalance grows larger and larger, said Peter Spina, chief investment strategist at GoldSeek.com.
The greenback is “in dire trouble so investors in gold know the risk is one to the upside with only short-term fund traders taking gold lower for additional opportunities to add at discounted levels,” he said.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BA7E65FC7%2D63EF%2D4984%2DA47B%2D916859E151D7%7D&siteid=
Mr. Oliver Says:
November 4th, 2006 at 11:20 pm
Chi, I recently picked up a bottle of Johnny Green. Very nice, way smooth.
Have you had this?
Yes, good stuff. Also, Black is the best consistent tasting mixer, although I generally don’t mix.
My father-in-law is obsessed with Blue, which is fine and all, but I’ve never been able to get it for less than $130 in the States. I really start to get the heebee jeebees when I have to part with more than $60 for bottle of anything. It’s part of the reason that I gave up Oban. They pulled it off the shelves for about 6 months in 2004, and when it reappeared, it routinely sells for $80. No way.
I’m even that way with wine. My current limit is a bottle of Seavey Cab 2001 that we bought in the Conn Valley a couple of years ago.
Jim,
New to the blog, saw your article in the paper, congrats. here’s a question for you. I have a nice 4 bd expanded cape on 1 1/2 acres of land (pretty rare in little falls/montclair area). So that’s where the value is. It’s like being in the country. Anyway, we need to sell to be closer to my husband’s work. Should I contact a developer to take a look at this undiscovered gem? Should we wait until the spring to sell?
Bost:
Just a difference of opinion, but I would rather take more conservative bets on Euro and JPY denominated assets.
chicago
“SAS Says:
November 5th, 2006 at 12:57 pm
Speaking of family leave….
I am proud to say that our outfit provides women with full pay and benfits for 12 weeks for maturnity leave and I want to up it to 16 weeks (before the spring arrives)”
Good for you, I hope that your company is rewarded with their loyalty, which is usually the case. Much cheaper in the long run to give longer maternity leave than to hire and train a new employee.
J&J gives a full year I believe. Plus they have on site day care. People never leave.
FALLEN STAR
Zuhdi Karagjozi had a meteoric rise in the housing industry, becoming one of New Jersey’s biggest home builders in less than 10 years. Now he is fighting for his company’s life in bankruptcy court.
Posted by the Asbury Park Press on 11/5/06
http://www.app.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20061105/BUSINESS/611050353/1003
Chi,
I agree, was long the currencies, now flat, just short the dollar index (versus basket). Only trade the currencies on technicals, dollar both technicals and fundamentals. Long the alternative/fiat currency; Gold. Oh, by the way, very bearish RE.
chicagofinance Says:
November 5th, 2006 at 1:01 pm
REINVESTOR101 Says:
November 5th, 2006 at 8:47 am
Is there any doubt that the liberals set up these guys Haggard and Foley to out them a few days before the election to hurt the republican party?
RE: I wanted Haggard to use the old Marion Barry quote – “bitch set me up”.
Well, Haggard was just as bad by saying “he only had a massage” and “I was tempted but threw the meth away”
Seriously, the liberals are having a field day right now. They either planted Haggard knowing that he didn’t really subscribe to rock ribbed republican values or planted his gay lover knowing that this prostitute was going to expose him. How in the hell is this punk gonna pop up a few days before the election and claim he’s got to tell the truth on Haggard? There’s something wrong with that picture. Moreover, there’s absolutely no way that people like Foley and Haggard can be real republicans; they’re just liberals masquerading as republicans and out to wreak the GOP.
The liberal elements in this country are a bunch of sickos and if we don’t watch it, they’ll take over and wreak the entire economy and our standing in the world. I don’t want to turn this into a partisan political rant, but most of those damn democrats are about as unamerican as you can get. Those fools winning the house and senate is the one event that will turn me into a bear. If you love this country, everyone here will turn out to prevent that from happening.
We’re all aware of the abuses in mortgage financing. Many on this board stress the importance of 20% down. What if a buyer has ample cash reserves, say 150k or more? Why not just put a minimum of 5 or 10% down? If you get a 20%+ lowball accepted in this market, you’ve got downside protection. There might be another 10 – 15% down if you have to sell, but with ample cash on hand, you’re covered.
Sure, you’ll pay more in interest charges but you can always pre-pay, particularly if you’re sitting on healthy reserves. Why not tie up less up front and invest the rest? Even a cash return of about 5% is not far under a mortgage rate of 6.5%, and you’re living in the house and not paying rent.
Okay, financial guys, what’s wrong with this?
Reinvestor101 said,
“The liberal elements in this country are a bunch of sickos and if we don’t watch it, they’ll take over and wreak the entire economy and our standing in the world. I don’t want to turn this into a partisan political rant, but most of those damn democrats are about as unamerican as you can get. Those fools winning the house and senate is the one event that will turn me into a bear. If you love this country, everyone here will turn out to prevent that from happening.”
The economy and our world standing can’t be any worse than it is heading already under current leadership. If you think things are headed in the right direction you are both delusional and in the minority.
Here’s a snippet of the market commentary for the week from Breakout Watch (www.breakoutwatch.com):
11/4
” Market Summary
There was clearly a change of mood in the markets this week as investors grappled with economic news which showed that the rate of economic contraction may be higher than is consistent with a soft landing, inflation at the wholesale level is still a present danger, retail sales, as forecast by Wal-Mart are flagging, and the housing market, the engine of the bull market, continues to fall. Employment is high so employers are increasing wage rates to attract or retain workers while at the same time productivity is flat, adding to inflationary pressures. It all adds up to bad news for the markets as they look to the prospects for fourth quarter earnings. For the week, the DJI slipped 0.86%, the NASDAQ Composite lost 0.84% and the S&P 500 gave up 0.95%.
We have always maintained that current and annual earnings were just a rear view mirror and now that the third quarter earnings season is mostly behind us, this is a time to pay attention to technical indicators…
“
“There was clearly a change of mood in the markets this week as investors grappled with economic news which showed that the rate of economic contraction may be higher than is consistent with a soft landing, inflation at the wholesale level is still a present danger, retail sales, as forecast by Wal-Mart are flagging, and the housing market, the engine of the bull market, continues to fall.”
Anybody remember the 70’s in Jersey? I do. I think this will rhyme a bit.
Is there any doubt that the liberals set up these guys Haggard and Foley to out them a few days before the election to hurt the republican party?
I think the gay community has finally had enough of the hypocrisy of these people spewing their sanctimonious venom, fighting to deny gays their rights, all the while living the lie.
Kudos to them for putting a cohesive plan into action at the time when it will affect them most.
“The economy and our world standing can’t be any worse than it is heading already under current leadership. If you think things are headed in the right direction you are both delusional and in the minority.”
Metro, you are totally correct. Reinvestor has obviously overdosed on the kool-aid, allowing his party’s dogma to control his brain, snuffing out rational thought and logic.
REInvestor:
Lay off the lead paint chips, will ya?
You really think Reinvestor is scraping too much old paint?
Reinvestor, I’m reading your candid commentary about liberals, and observing a lack of biting fish.
I don’t want to argue two days before the election. Just feel too sad about the current state. Never thought I’d get to the point of saying, “Just vote out every one of them…it’s the only way to fix things..just keep voting them out.”
But I’m there. Pretty crushing to be using napalm tactics instead of really voting by issue.
This place is running by a dictator? I feel somebody is censoring and filtering posts…..
Shame on you, the coward working with the face masked….
Jaywalk Says:
November 5th, 2006 at 6:54 pm
I think the gay community has finally had enough of the hypocrisy of these people spewing their sanctimonious venom, fighting to deny gays their rights, all the while living the lie.
Kudos to them for putting a cohesive plan into action at the time when it will affect them most.
First of all, there’s no rights being denied to these people. They can do whatever they want to do. No one is preventing them from their parades, cohabitation and whatever else, but that doesn’t mean that we have to accept or accomodate their choices. I draw the line right there.
Second, what the hell do they deserve kudos for? If anything, they should be roundly condemned, afterall, the punk that outed Haggard is a prostitute; a dreg of society.
For you liberals, lifestyles can be changed like a coat and whatever coat someone wants to wear is ok. For us, that’s not okay and this is the main reason why we’re going to continue to fight hard in the culture war and we will win it.
I’m highly pissed off about this entire affair knowing the dirty tricks the unamerican liberal element has played here. There was a lot of underhanded plotting and planning that went into this one.
“REInvestor:
Lay off the lead paint chips, will ya?”
Jamey, dude, how do I stop laughing, my stomach hurts…
Jay Says:
November 5th, 2006 at 7:32 pm
“REInvestor:
Lay off the lead paint chips, will ya?”
Jamey, dude, how do I stop laughing, my stomach hurts
Yeah, you guys are real funny. Your tummy hurts huh? Why the hell didn’t it hurt when this Haggard affair was bantered about in the press? Hell, I threw up.
This is the time and place to post observations about your local areas, comments on news stories or the New Jersey housing bubble, open house reports, etc.
Witty rework of the NAR ad. Shill brushstroke doesn’t apply in this case, f*ck you very much.
Okie dokie. I need to address OP comment( no motivation to scroll bac) re “buyers are liars and sellers are yellers.” What an unfortunate classification; especially since most of the time it rings true.
The attitude I’ve gotten from most visitors to my open house have ranged from haughty indifference to downright hostility. When I follow up for feedback on a house, I’ll get wrong numbers. Colleagues have reported sign-ins from Messers Jack MeOff and Heywood Jablowme (hahaha). So operating in this environment, is it any surprise that the saying “Buyers are liars” is true? HUH? Put yourselves in our place for one freakin’ millesecond and figure that out.
[Mental note: must address OP indication that sellers need a realtor more than buyers. OOPs. way wrong.]
Then again, I’ve had folks who are sincere in outlining their needs and desires in a home search. I take them seriously, work as their advocate and am still looking based on their needs & requirements.
Oh yeah, these people call and email me on a regular basis. Why does this matter? It indicates I’ve successfully communicated and we mutually understand my true status: a fiduciary agent. No, I will not bend you over for a quick commission. Yes, I will treat you like my family in ensuring you get the best deal for your money AND FOR THE MARKET.
Oh yeah, and guess what, I gots no problem personally presenting the lowball offer. Been there, done that, will happily do it again.
That’s another thing. Ya’ll who are out there buying, even today. INSIST THAT YOUR REALTOR PERSONALLY PRESENT THE OFFER. TAKES BALLS WHEN THE OFFER IS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER BUT IT WORKS. Well, unless your Realtor sucks or has no cojones, but aint’ me so I don’t care.
As for “sellers are yellers.” This is a whole ‘nother huge post and I have carpal tunnel syndrome so I’ll take a break and come back to address that quagmire (Again, true.).
Also, Jim. You must clarify for your stable that 15% below means from top of 2005…so a 5% drop from 2005 each year until end of 2007 is reasonable. Not 15% total from now. Big difference dude.
Reinvestor, I am not a dem. or repub., and I was trying to understand what you are saying, and was not sure about your use of certain words & phrases. Please tell me if I understand correctly:
“Unamerican” = not a Republican, with opinions and values that are different from mine
“Liberal” – not sure, but it’s bad like communists and they are unamerican, and hate America. May also be friends with terrorists.
“those people” = you know, the ones that are liberal and unamerican and gay
Here is the slide for those interested..
Residential Forecast
jb
twice shy Says:
November 5th, 2006 at 3:25 pm
What if a buyer has ample cash reserves, say 150k or more? Why not just put a minimum of 5 or 10% down?
Why not tie up less up front and invest the rest? Okay, financial guys, what’s wrong with this?
If you are disciplined, then of course your strategy makes sense. However, you want to receive the best rate possible for your primary mortgage, you want to avoid PMI, and you want to ensure that your piggyback [if used] is not at an exhorbitant rate.
Jim, did Otteau discuss the effects of the internet as he did in the last seminar according to my friend? If so, could you elaborate?
“The attitude I’ve gotten from most visitors to my open house have ranged from haughty indifference to downright hostility.”
AMS, can you tell me when this started? I’m wondering in the difference in buyer attitude between 6/05 and now. Or when there were multiple bidders, not?
Heywood Jablow… that brings back a lot of high school memories, but I guess it must be frustrating when you are taking it personally.
The fiduciary status thing..be careful not to state that to your sellers/clients. Fiduciary implies more than a moral obligation. If indeed you are providing more services than a typical agent, do you have insurance?
Fiduciary liability insurance is not too expensive, and I can get you hooked up if you truly believe you are providing fiduciary services.
Otteau’s outlook on the web, and media in general, was that it would speed the downturn, but would also accelerate the recovery.
jb
Jay Says:
November 5th, 2006 at 7:58 pm
Reinvestor, I am not a dem. or repub., and I was trying to understand what you are saying, and was not sure about your use of certain words & phrases. Please tell me if I understand correctly:
“Unamerican” = not a Republican, with opinions and values that are different from mine
“Liberal” – not sure, but it’s bad like communists and they are unamerican, and hate America. May also be friends with terrorists.
“those people” = you know, the ones that are liberal and unamerican and gay
Jay, you don’t have a neutral position, but definitely lean left….no, I take that back, you’re bending over backwards to the left.
It’s litte wonder you find my comments offensive.
Rich & AMS,
I deleted both of your last comments. Your initial response Rich, and Antoinette’s reply.
jb
To Skep-tic (from #150): Good stuff. To a few of your points:
– Yes, brokers can be sued for malpractice. My E & O bill could choke a horse…and neither I nor any of my agents have ever been sued!
– Agreed on the marketing observation. The RE industry is only now waking up to simple, basic modern marketing. We have the best “blank canvas” ever, the Internet, yet we’ve barely scratched the surface. Only a few Realtors are doing anything creative or truly useful in terms of marketing, and that few will be the survivors after this shakeout.
– As we don’t market well yet, there are lots of holes in our microtargeting. Nothing along the lines of the RNC or DNC in terms of data mining…even though the same info- prepared by the same companies- is available to us. Again, a small handful of forward-lookers is getting into this now.
Reinvestor, you made my point better than I could with your response, accusing me of “bending over backwards to the left”, whatever that means.
I don’t find you offensive, just under the influence and sadly misguided.
To “v” (is that like “V For Vendetta”? Natalie Portman is hot.):
Do the worst people in RE scheme and scam? Sure. Is it organized? Most bad agents can’t organize a full day of work…how are they going to collude on any scheme of any real scope?
Hanlon’s Razor – Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity.
To Skeptic (from #158):
Don’t read too much into the Help-U-Sell thing. Cendant (now Realogy) has been tossing their flameout execs onto that junkheap for years. Help-U-Sell has been stuck at a fraction of 1% market penetration for years in most US cities…except for the Rust Belt. Not exactly a growth machine.
Realloogie (sic) must’ve just slashed a new tranche of low-producers, since they just guided down their ’07 forecasts.
Trust nothing from Silverman and that crew of nincompoops at Realloogie. SOS, different day. Imagine… a stand-alone real estate franchising machine that has absolutely NO ONE at the helm who knows the first thing about RE!!!
To all:
Don’t you love those obnoxious: “FIND OUT WHAT YOUR HOME IS WORTH” ads,
What are they basing those figures on?
Too bad that the Fecal Head -Buyers of 2001-5 are now becoming more scarce.
Rich,
Can you be nice and behave?
I know I can.
The US ecomony is booming, unemployment just posted at a mere 4.2%.
As for America’s “world standing” I guarantee our enemies fear America more today than they did a few year ago.
The French still hate us, but that’s OK, I hate them back, and would rather die than live in a way that pleases their lot.
Wait until one of these islamic fanatics sets off a nuclear device in Times Square, then even what France thinks won’t matter to the last nail-biters.
It’s childish to blame [insert political boogeyman] about the problems we face. Regardless of who is in office, we will have the same problems, muslim terrorists will still be trying to set off that nuke, and there are limited options available to address these problems.
Reality sucks, but denial won’t save anyone.
People may not like the way the problem is being addressed, but there’s not a serious opponent who has said “This is my plan, and here’s why it will work better.” Instead, these twits simply repeat “Your plan sucks, your plan sucks.” Entirely unserious behavior, and beneath what out great country deserves.
I’ve never seen people who vote for things (e.g., a war, the ‘Patriot Act’) and then turn around and denounce the very thing they just voted for:
http://freedomagenda.com/iraq/wmd_quotes.html
Sad.
Clotpoll,
“Do the worst people in RE scheme and scam? Sure”
During the hay days, did you meet any of these scammers? If so, what actions did you take to stop them? In my opinion, you are part of the problem if you did nothing to stop the scammers.
UnRealtor Says:
November 5th, 2006 at 8:57 pm
As for America’s “world standing” I guarantee our enemies fear America more today than they did a few year ago….
Reality sucks, but denial won’t save anyone….
I’ve never seen people who vote for things (e.g., a war, the ‘Patriot Act’) and then turn around and denounce the very thing they just voted for:
http://freedomagenda.com/iraq/wmd_quotes.html
Unrealtor, thank you very much for sharing your thoughts and the link. I read that link and it makes my blood boil. Moreover, it certainly reminds us of what’s at stake here.
Do we really want a bunch of sniveling invertebrates running this country? The kind that say one thing and then run do another based on the latest direction the wind is blowing? Do we want a bunch of people in control of the house that will bleed their hearts out at any nonsensical nonsense, but are wholly incapable of protecting this country?
People, this thing is real and we face real threats. We mustn’t let the liberal dirty tricksters lessen the resolve to put the right people on the seats on the bus. It will be a travesty if the liberals win the house and senate. It is the one thing that would turn even me into a bear.
James Bednar Says:
November 5th, 2006 at 8:38 pm
Hanlon’s Razor – Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity.
Schick’s Razor – why settle for three blades when four is better?
The Equine Paradox – there are more horses asses in the world than there are horses.
Ain’t that the truth
V–
The scammers are always around…their numbers are just thinner now.
A Realtor’s legal, moral and ethical charge is to protect and forward the interests of his principal, the client. That’s what I’ve done and still do.
Superman’s cape doesn’t fit me.
I saw this kid at the park one day, all skinny and dirty, with rat’s nest hair, and she crawled up on her mother’s lap. Her mother was in disarray, sitting on metal bleachers, staring at the empty baseball field, wearing bedroom slippers and swaying back and forth.
But I just kept pushing my daughter on the swing, cause that’s my job.
Bullshit, Clotpoll. No, I didn’t keep pushing my kid.
You don’t have to wear Superman’s cape to be a professional.
Thanks for posting that slide, James.
So, if one wanted/needed to buy now would it be a good idea to look at comps from a year ago and shoot to buy the house at 15% less?
thanks.
Right now, at this point in time, I wouldn’t pay a penny more than 2004 prices, but that is just my opinion.
jb
Even though the guy bought it for half in 2000!
Wow you’re generous!
AMS,
Open houses are for showing the house. Nobody who goes to them knows you or cares that you are trying to drum up business. They don’t want to sign their names because they know you are just going to try to sell them something. This isn’t an excuse to act childish, but receiving unsolicited phone calls from realtors shouldn’t be a condition of seeing an open house. If they were really interested, they would call you.
Pat–
Big leap from reporting child abuse to stamping out RE agents who puff. Children are defenseless; adults who have established credit and are seeking to make a capital purchase should be able to spot an “operator” a mile away.
So many who post here are simultaneously Einstein and helpless against the grand conspiracy being perpetrated.
If you went to a doctor whose office was dirty and whose breath reeked of vodka, would you allow him to operate on you?
chicagofinance,
Thanks for your reply to my question about down payment. I am disciplined and concur with all your points.
Clotpoll,
I don’t think the people here are concerned about themselves getting scammed by shady agents. It’s the general public. There are a lot of people who trust “experts” far too much. Now it would be nice if everyone could just look out for themselves, but that’s not the way the world works. And at some point, if you have too many people trusting bad info, the entire market breaks down. This is why we have very strict disclosure and licensing rules for operators in capital markets. The RE market is every bit as large, but the regulations are slight in comparison. And look what happens when people in the capital markets said, “it’s not my problem.” Congress smack them down with SarbOx. The same thing can happen in RE and will if people in the industry don’t get serious about making sure people have accurate info and reliable intermediaries
Even though the guy bought it for half in 2000!
Wow you’re generous!
But I’m not buying..
jb
“I wouldn’t pay a penny more than 2004 prices”
I’m holding out to 2000 prices. It’s not going to happen tomorrow. If I don’t get it, I’m not a buyer, at least a Jersey buyer.
It’s a real bore festival to continously read about pathetic percentages off the 2005 price.
You guys are marking off BS prices to begin with, and the sellers know this. Use a real index of 2000 and multiply by normal appreciation.
First time,
I agree. Use the standard historical rate, go to Schiller’s chart; 1-1.20X the inflation rate over this time frame.
“I deleted both of your last comments. Your initial response Rich, and Antoinette’s reply.”
“Can you be nice and behave?”
Fair enough, apologies all around.
Sincerely, Horse’s Ass
PS JB, Do you plan on posting your notes from the seminar?
No apology required, from either side.
jb
Skep-tic (from #230)-
I like where you’re going now. I would welcome some regulation that would put more responsibility upon the industry to deliver less “cooked” numbers. I’m no fan of NAR’s sometimes-disingenuous attempts to overstate things. But, in the end, it’s much like other businesses: there’s lies, damned lies…and then, statistics (sorry, Mark Twain).
However, understand that the basis for salesmanship in RE is a constant probing for personal weakness to find “hot buttons” that trigger fear of loss. Fear of loss leads to sales and purchases. Although there’s lots of analytical types posting here, the average buyer and seller are roiling buckets of emotional gasoline that need just the right spark to stimulate a sell or buy decision. There is nothing illegal or immoral in that sort of salesmanship; however, I think it’s definitely immoral (and sometimes, illegal) to abuse or violate the trust of a client once you’ve created that emotional state. RE buyers buy on emotion, then use facts to justify the emotional decision they just made. If those facts are bogus, the agent and/or the industry should be called to account.
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