From Redfin:
U.S. Home Prices Hit Another Record High, But Mortgage Rates Are Starting to Decline–Which Could Give Buyers Relief
The median U.S. home-sale price hit an all-time high of $394,000 during the four weeks ending June 9, up 4.4% year over year–the biggest increase in about three months. But there are signs that home-price growth could ease soon. Asking prices have leveled off, and 6.5% of home sellers are cutting their asking price, on average, the highest share since November 2022. Prices are already declining in four U.S. metros: Austin, TX, Fort Worth, TX, San Antonio, TX and Portland, OR.
Meanwhile, the typical homebuyer’s monthly housing payment dipped to $2,829, which is $30 below April’s record high. Median housing payments have fallen slightly since April despite record sale prices because weekly average mortgage rates have declined to 6.99% .
Mortgage rates are likely to decline further over the summer, which would keep monthly housing costs from spiraling up again. Daily average mortgage rates dropped to their lowest level in three months on June 12 after the latest CPI report showed that inflation is continuing to cool. And although the Fed forecast just one interest-rate cut this year at its June 12 meeting, it’s possible the Fed wasn’t able to fully consider the fresh inflation data in time for the meeting; they may revise their projection at the next meeting. (It’s worth noting that daily rates have been volatile for the last several days; they soared after last Friday’s hot jobs report before dropping back down).
“The latest inflation report is good for homebuyers because it has already sent mortgage rates down, though this week’s Fed meeting will temper mortgage-rate declines,” said Chen Zhao, Redfin’s economic research lead. “But on the other side of the coin, if lower mortgage rates bring back more demand than supply, that could erase the possibility that home-price growth softens, and push prices up even further. Lower rates and higher prices may ultimately cancel each other out when it comes to homebuyers’ monthly payments.”
For now, high costs are keeping some prospective homebuyers on the sidelines. Pending home sales are down 3.5% year over year, the biggest decline in over three months, and Redfin’s Homebuyer Demand Index–a measure of requests for tours and other buying services from Redfin agents–is down 18%, sitting at its lowest level since February. But there is one encouraging sign for demand: Mortgage-purchase applications are up 9% week over week. On the selling side, new listings are up 7.8% year over year, but they’re below typical springtime levels, which is why home prices keep rising despite tepid demand.
Fiiiiirst
I’m seeing words such as “if”, “likely” and “encouraging” in the article above which is another way of saying, “We need to write something counter to the eye-popping prices so let’s give potential buyers something to read.” It’s like telling someone they have a chance of survival after walking into an airplane propeller.
I’m not going to do it but, part of me really wants to sell my house a just move back into my mother’s house to cash in on this market. There is no way in hell my POS cape is worth what Zillow says.
There is no way in hell my POS cape is worth what Zillow says.
Au contraire, it is. Outbidding another is a sign of victory! Besides, having your name on a mortgage is the same as driving a Mercedes with a car phone, 50 years ago. Houses are a now a sign of luxury and wealth, not just a place to drop your bags. So, go ahead… but a price on your place that actually makes you queasy, chances are you’ll snag a buyer.
D-Fens
If it’s in Jersey, the land of sunshine and unicorns,‘it’s worth to infinity and beyond.
For ChiFi.
https://www.instagram.com/reel/C7PM0V5P-2p/?igsh=MXNvNzgzY3N1cjl0Yw==
D – consider that extra money for your POS cape a tax refund.
Need to get rid of the cap gains exemption for primary residence sales, not sure why we’d let all that wealth go untaxed. Housing needs to benefit everyone equally, so everyone should share in the gains of real estate prices.
This would easily be 600k in Bergen county
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13529773/House-swallowed-hedging-clean-yourself.html
Happy Flag Day peoples.
https://tinyurl.com/Flag-Day-Yo
D Fens: We have a family situation some what like that, except it’s ugly real ugly.
You missed my whole point of sharing that. Instead went with what you wanted to see out of it.
I was simply pointing out that he is acknowledging exactly what I said the other day.
PumpkinNeedsGrandmaLesson says:
June 13, 2024 at 8:14 pm
Pumpkin,
Your Jersey Sceptic meter is off.
BlackRock says “ This is why building new infrastructure is critical, especially through public-private partnerships.”
Means – Socialize the loses ( Building expenses ). Privatize the gains (User Fees).
I thought your crooked drug dealing family taught you better. Blackrock is a junkie and you never let the junkie handle the drugs or money.
This is what I wrote the other day. Pay attention to last paragraph. These are all original thoughts…they are my own. Larry Fink agrees…
The Great Pumpkin says:
June 12, 2024 at 9:58 am
Prob biggest bubble I have ever seen. All this money will be vaporized at some point. You want to know what investing has been last two years….all the rich lemmings piling into what they view as “safety” from inflation/recession creating massive bubbles in a few positions. This can go on for longer than we believe, but one thing I am positive about….it will pop…and it will get ugly.
Just look at who has the capital? Top percentages have it all. They are not risking it right now in small caps….and instead all in what they perceive as safety. It will end badly like it always does. Deflation is coming….Why?
Let me explain. Capitalism is a ponzi scheme based on never ending population growth. Aka entire economic system is built on never ending population growth.
Population growth is slowing dramatically. What happens now? How does capitalism work with less hands chasing products. How do stocks grow in that environment? Best one of all: debt. How the f/k do you pay off this debt, or at least service it, with a population that is barely growing. Means you have less people to pay…aka each must now take on a bigger burden to service said debt. It’s all f/ked at some point. The optimist in me hopes they figure out how to fix this all and keep the train going. See what happens.
“Not having been able to afford a home nurse when my mom was going through chemo, the feeling of failure when I later lost my business — the same month my oldest son was born — was acute. I still register an ache in the small of my back remembering those moments. It’s unacceptable, full stop, that an economy where one company (NVDA) can add the GDP of Australia in one calendar month also has large swaths of the population who live with this profound anxiety. What is the ratio of the explosion of billionaires to deaths of despair in America? My gut tells me it’s positive, when any decent society would demand the size of these cohorts be inversely correlated.”
Agreed.
“Price is all that matters. The 10yr bond yield is telling you exactly what the current economic situation is. Since late May there has been a repricing of a recession. This stopped dead in its tracks with the hot NFP print last week. But the data this week again is pointing to a significant softening in US-data. The trend has resumed
The key signal this week however came from Powell. It was the first time he was hawkish this year, despite having ample opportunity to talk-dovish. The market response? They ignored it . The Fed is data-dependent and the market is moving off the data. The Fed will be forced to cut rates earlier than September.
The long-end is screaming recession incoming.
Switch-on, its going to get bumpy into the summer months!”
Yes, Happy Flag Day. I post the flag before Memorial Day and take it in when the weather starts getting nasty towards the winter. It’s interesting that you can identify those households that hold American values close and those that want a further transformation to some village collective. The flag bearers are the ones that will most likely defend those colors to death where the more communal folks will acquiesce if it benefits their personal well-being. The same holds true for shirts, hats, etc. More conservative folks will wear clothing that displays their pride in America whereas progressives rarely show public identification only when in a crowd or when protesting. It’s strength in numbers, a sense of security among similar muppets as opposed to having the self-esteem to stand alone. Just an observation.
You will be assimilated. Just an observation.
Capitalism isn’t a ponzi. “Social security” kind of is, though not a pure one. Fiat money kind of is. Forever rising deficit financing is. The most ponzi elements of our modern mixed welfare-state economies are introduced by government.
As for NVDA, Gamestop, bitcoin. Most people don’t have much effect. US indexes are getting concentrated on a handful of TMT stocks, so it’s possible that their index funds could get hurt in the future, unwinding the help of the past. But these things always work out over time. Turn off the daytrading promotions and it’s no skin off your back. Markets are forward looking, and sometimes people get caught up in the hype. But over the medium to long term free markets still allocate capital dramatically more efficiently than some socialist commissar , or even a president, governor, or mayor would. Comparing the change in market cap of a stock to the activity GDP of a country for one year, it’s apples and oranges.
Don’t be bitter because you suck at investing, Pumpkin. Read “A Random Walk Down Wall St.” by Malkiel and “Economics in One Lesson” by Hazlitt and let the division of labor work for you by focusing on where you do have expertise and an edge.
DNA should consider replacing their symbol with DNR.
It’s not like we didn’t tell you so from day one. 44 cents. Where were you telling us to mortgage the home to purchase some. $10, and $8 and $4 and $2 and $1?
Roaring Kitty is a nutter. He sold 2/3rds of his calls to finance the purchase of 4 million more shares of GME stock.
Stock is now @ 28 and he has no more calls. Why in the world would anyone want to hold $260 million of that stock? He has capital gains taxes to pay as well.
Maybe he really is some kind of options savant as well, and trades with other brokerages etc, he did not get all that wealth from trading GME alone I don’t think anyway.
Maga Boomers voted against private pension plans and in favor of socialist government provided universal minimum income for themselves.
Boomers also get socialist government universal healthcare.
No One says:
June 14, 2024 at 9:46 am
Capitalism isn’t a ponzi. “Social security” kind of is, though not a pure one.
Huzzah!
Libturd says:
June 14, 2024 at 7:44 am
For ChiFi.
https://www.instagram.com/reel/C7PM0V5P-2p/?igsh=MXNvNzgzY3N1cjl0Yw==
Adrenaline junkie
Juice Box says:
June 14, 2024 at 11:11 am
Roaring Kitty is a nutter. He sold 2/3rds of his calls to finance the purchase of 4 million more shares of GME stock.
Stock is now @ 28 and he has no more calls. Why in the world would anyone want to hold $260 million of that stock? He has capital gains taxes to pay as well.
Maybe he really is some kind of options savant as well, and trades with other brokerages etc, he did not get all that wealth from trading GME alone I don’t think anyway.
My son was at Nationals last night at Franklin Field. He was running in a 4 x 1 mile. It was his 4th championship race in 7 days. Completely on fumes against fresh legs. Non-NJ people hadn’t raced in 2 weeks. Their second leg kid sold. Pissed everyone off but out or respect and teamwork no one said anything. The other two kids (a sophomore and senior) came to a championship. They finished All-American and six seconds off some kids from Boston. The fucking kid who sold is walking around bragging that he’s an all American, and he was carried. That is that kid.
Stock is now @ 28 and he has no more calls. Why in the world would anyone want to hold $260 million of that stock? He has capital gains taxes to pay as well.
I halfway think that dude is just making this shit up
Maybe Grim – But real reporters are writing these stories
from Reuters and other news media. They usually vet these things..
If he were Trolling everyone it would be epic for sure.
US sent a fast-attack submarine and docked it at Guantanamo Bay. I gather they are letting the Russians know this isn’t going to end like the Hunt for Red October. It will be sunk if it makes any wrong moves.
https://www.newsweek.com/us-nuclear-powered-submarine-uss-helena-naval-base-guantanamo-bay-russia-fleet-cuba-havana-1912722
Just another day in Joe Bidens America. Turn in the nj news and a cop was shot and an attempted home invasion by suspected South American gangs in florham park.
Fair point.
I also need to better decouple my rationalist brain from these scenarios.
Very: Corporations with both democrats and republicans in leadership positions got rid of private pensions years ago. Long before MAGA. I don’t recall your boy Joe. Biden in his 50 plus years in D. C. voicing opposition to the elimination of private sector pensions.
Since Wealth Tax. came up recently.
There is a case before the Supreme Court a 16th Amendment question that may be decided this month before they go into recess, the question is whether taxes on foreign investments are legal and all.
Why are agitators throwing red paint on buildings and doorways of Jewish people in Brooklyn? Where is all this antisemitism coming from? And why?
Don’t know what to think about Nvidia.
I might have to sell and trigger a huge tax bill
Fast Eddie says:
June 14, 2024 at 1:36 pm
“Where is all this antisemitism coming from?”
The blue states. Remember, guys like Lib prefer this to the idea of making America great again.
Housing affordability in the U.S. is at an all-time low. Median home prices have scaled record highs and the 30-year fixed-mortgage rate is hovering at around 7%. This has depressed both demand and supply.
It’s transitory. The Inflation Reduction Act is about to kick in at any moment.
Fast: No one is having kids, so no need for houses. I don’t understand what the problem is.
He looks so happy! I think he just did a boom boom in his pants!
https://tinyurl.com/2nnndcu9
A neighbor in a nearby street was diagnosed with cancer last year after his wife died just 3 months earlier. He sold the house in distress last year and moved to the midwest to be with some family who could take care of his only 6yo kid. Sad situation really. They purchased the house about 7 years ago for $390K. Flipper bought it for $450K and maybe put about $100K on it and held it for 6 months. Sold last week for $900K – highest comp in the neighborhood ever.
I am not sure when the market will turn around, but the insanity continues.
3:42 sorry but Diaper Donny is the documented pant shitter:
https://youtu.be/UmuO4_Y19co
Won’t be good for our careers if we arrest the boss.
https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/14/politics/merrick-garland-contempt-vote-no-prosecution/index.html
The House GOP are insurrectionists.
https://theleadingreport.com/
BREAKING: Trump allegedly floated the concept of eliminating the income tax and replacing it with tariffs at the GOP meeting at the Capitol Hill Club.
Trump has never demonstrated any financial competence.
The six bankruptcies were the result of over-leveraged hotel and casino businesses in Atlantic City and New York: Trump Taj Mahal (1991), Trump Plaza Hotel and Casino (1992), Plaza Hotel (1992), Trump Castle Hotel and Casino (1992), Trump Hotels and Casino Resorts (2004), and Trump Entertainment Resorts (2009).