From CNBC:
Treasury yields tumble as recession concerns take hold
U.S. Treasurys slid on Monday as fears about a recession grew after a series of key economic data was released last week.
At 4:10 a.m. ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was down by over four basis points to 3.7547%. The 2-year Treasury yield was last at 3.7807% after falling by more than nine basis points. The yield on both the 10-year and 2-year Treasurys on Monday fell to levels not seen in over a year.
On Friday, July’s nonfarm payrolls report showed that job growth for the month totaled just 114,000, which was below the 185,000 Dow Jones estimate as well as June’s revised figure of 179,000. The jobs report also showed that the employment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.3%, its highest level since October 2021.
The data suggested an easing of the labor market, which prompted concerns about a recession. That came after the Fed earlier in the week left interest rates unchanged and hinted at a September rate cut. But many investors have since questioned whether the central bank should have moved to cut rates already to ward off an economic downturn.
Markets are now pricing in an increasingly high chance of a 50 basis point rate cut when the Fed meets in September, CME Group’s FedWatch tool showed.
In the week ahead, investors will be watching out for comments from Fed officials, scanning them for clues about the economic and monetary policy outlook. ISM’s Services PMI, which tracks the performance of services companies, is also due Monday and is expected to rise from June’s 48.8 reading to 50.9 in July.
First
If Iran attacks Israel we might see the first real refi window open up in a loooong time.
Japan biggest one day stock market loss in history? Kaboom.
Wallstreetbets is awfully … grim … this morning
Let’s see here, US government says all is well in the world. Meanwhile we have the Middle East on the edge of an escalating war, the Ukraine has just received F16 fighter jets for the US lead proxy war, Russia has been showing off their MiG interceptors with the implied use of tactical nuclear weapons, the world economy appears to now be teetering on the edge of a very bad recession, and Taiwan is preparing their population for a possible invasion by China. Should you be worried? Of course not! US President Joe Biden is heading to the Situation Room in the White House today to deal with it all. That’s right, that Joe Biden. The one who apparently is in some stage of dementia and whose mental and physical faculties only allow him to function at a low level for a few hours daily.
Futes were fucked all night as well VIX. A little more under the surface than the opening implied trades indicate. People caught way offsides leaning to one side of the boat, especially the yen carry trade.
Grim, WSB? LOL man…
For all our “Thank you President Biden” jackasses and uber-trolls, anyone want to run an R-squared on recent market performance and the rise of the Dem candidate in the polls?
Betting we’re closer to 1 than not….
Let’s all give a loud ‘Thank you VP Harris!” shout out this morning lol.
:)
Grim, WSB? LOL man…
Gotta keep a finger on the pulse of America. Well that, and it’s hilarious.
-1000 today?
A Wall Street Journal investigation of insurer home visits found the companies pushed nurses to run screening tests and add unusual diagnoses, turning the roughly hourlong stops in patients’ homes into an extra $1,818 per visit, on average, from 2019 to 2021. Those payments added up to about $15 billion during that period, according to a Journal analysis of Medicare data.
Socialist universal healthcare for the 65 and older is the most expensive welfare in the world. Paid by the young so that the old can turn Maga
“Last month, the Journal reported that insurers received nearly $50 billion in payments from 2019 to 2021 due to diagnoses they added themselves for conditions that no doctor or hospital treated. Many of the insurer-driven diagnoses were outright wrong or highly questionable, the Journal found. “
Insurers received? Tax payer money from the young
VSG: And that insurance will be there for you too when you get old.
LOL @ BTC being off 18%.
grim says:
August 5, 2024 at 8:04 am
-1000 today?
Guess more. Too much leverage all over.
“A Wall Street Journal investigation of insurer home visits found the companies pushed nurses to run screening tests and add unusual diagnoses, turning the roughly hourlong stops in patients’ homes into an extra $1,818 per visit…”
Home health care has been a walled off bastion of fraud for at least the three decades I’ve followed it. I’ve avoided it like the plague. Lots of lower hanging fruit without the tail risk elsewhere.
“-1000 today?”
Dow or NASDAQ?
:)
I think Vanguard is down. I keep getting gateway 502 and 500 errors and Vanhasrud is doing scheduled maintenance.
Same here with Vanguard. I was looking to deploy some dry powder
Man Oh Manischewitz
Kaboom.
Going to dump some more cash into the kids accounts today.
What index? Mid cap? International?
Strong ISM data just reported
Grim
Hope their accounts aren’t at Vanguard
I had 10% of my cash in Yen the better part of this year. Was getting killed all year on it. Now it’s up 5% overall. Crazy moves.
Let’s see here, US government says all is well in the world. Meanwhile we have the Middle East on the edge of an escalating war, the Ukraine has just received F16 fighter jets for the US lead proxy war, Russia has been showing off their MiG interceptors with the implied use of tactical nuclear weapons, the world economy appears to now be teetering on the edge of a very bad recession, and Taiwan is preparing their population for a possible invasion by China.
Yeah, but Trump is weird… so there’s that.
QQQ gotta hold that 2 year trendline
Now that night of the long knives is over Nancy Pelosi wants Joe Biden added to Mount Rushmore. I wonder if he‘ll be depicted wearing his sporty and youthful appearing aviator sunglasses?
We’re in pretty much an all cash position (Euro & US dollars) as well as real estate at the moment. It will likely be a wild couple of months depending on how the rather unstable geopolitical situations shake out.
Plenty of money to be made killing people. That’s why the USA has been in perpetual wars for the last 50 years.
grim says:
August 5, 2024 at 6:22 am
If Iran attacks Israel we might see the first real refi window open up in a loooong time.
I’ve avoided it like the plague? Couple of C-Notes on the nightstand and you could get some of the most enjoyable care you have ever received.
Money is tight.
leftwing says:
August 5, 2024 at 9:07 am
“A Wall Street Journal investigation of insurer home visits found the companies pushed nurses to run screening tests and add unusual diagnoses, turning the roughly hourlong stops in patients’ homes into an extra $1,818 per visit…”
Home health care has been a walled off bastion of fraud for at least the three decades I’ve followed it. I’ve avoided it like the plague. Lots of lower hanging fruit without the tail risk elsewhere.
FEEEEEEEEEEEE-NNNNNIIIIIXXXXXXXXX…..
Welcome back bro!
Chad Powers,
Meanwhile we have the Middle East on the edge of an escalating war, the Ukraine has just received F16 fighter jets for the US lead proxy war, Russia has been showing off their MiG interceptors
Give me a break – I can make the middle-east war stop with one phone call. I love the Mexican and Chinese people, and they love me, especially the rich ones who buy my apartments or stay at my hotels or play on my golf courses. Did you know, Hillary Clinton created ISIS.
Some green on the screen?
Phoenix!
Someone:
Not sure if Trump is the answer but one thing is for sure. The current people running things aren’t doing a very good job. It started with executive actions reversing what was a very secure southern US border. After the Afghanistan debacle it just continued going downhill.
SomeOne,
How is President Harris going to handle it all?
Phoenix says:
August 5, 2024 at 11:24 am
Everybody crying how they missed you, had people worried sick.
Welcome back! Don’t do that again.
And why is Cumala all of a sudden for fracking and leaving private health insurance alone? Why is she trying to run as a republican now?
You’ll love this chi….so we had a discussion a couple weeks back or so about Schwab and other brokers and where to go given the [poorly executed] ToS merger….I was winding down most positions I set in Nov-Jan 2024 anyway as they expire this Sept-Jan 2025 and were at 60-70% of max profit and the remaining returns didn’t really justify the new position at risk but….
As I was trying to move brokers I was getting hung up on option permissions so I said ‘fuck it’ and just started liquidating the rest…got out of the last one ABNB last week I think, maybe week before can’t recall and can’t access my account (parts of Schwab are down today too).
Upshot is to make the transfer of my tax free accounts easier I went to 100% cash figuring screw it I can re-establish positions later when the new broker figures it out let me just get the moneys out of Schwab. LOL….wouldn’t have been down a lot these past days, but would have been down nonetheless and certainly would have been handcuffed into those positions for another three or so months had I not liquidated.
I’ll take luck over skill any day, LOL.
And now, a message from the future president of the United States of America:
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/66B3kjsPlso
Busted my ass over the weekend, got out of the pool all wet, no towels so went inside for a towel a slipped down a half staircase, tailbone and a few back ribs are sore as can be, Funny thing is I made the same mistake a few years ago and so did my FIL, he injured his arm. Treads are going on those stairs or I am moving the towels out of downstairs closet. Heck my dog does not like those stairs either, she won’t ever go down them now that she also fell down them.
Joys of home sick, can barely move my ass around the house as the markets go haywire. At least the womens volleyball is on.
Is this when Powell goes from hero to zero? Good morning America.
Cumin now these Kamala ads during the Olympics are ridiculous, claiming she capped the cost of insulin now. That was the inflation reduction act..she did cast the tie breaking vote as VP in the Senate but that was not her legislation.
And what’s with the fake southern accent thing? She grew up in Cali and Montreal. Do they say y’all in Montreal?
That’s the problem with Maga supported Socialism. It corrupts.
Time to privatize healthcare for those over 65. Let the market rule
leftwing says:
August 5, 2024 at 9:07 am
Home health care has been a walled off bastion of fraud for at least the three decades I’ve followed it. I’ve avoided it like the plague. Lots of lower hanging fruit without the tail risk elsewhere.
Eat a dick fellas!!!
Nom nom nom nom you bitches.
Eddie,
How is President Harris going to handle it all?
Like many previous presidents? Try all diplomatic channels, build consensus, etc. Like they say about how porcupines mate: carefully, very carefully.
LOL, riiiight, because she is so nuanced and in control of the facts….
12:57 and you’re somehow implying Trump is??
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“12:57 and you’re somehow implying Trump is??”
And there we go, child care hour…
Follow closely liberals, you CAN really keep up with the conversation…
The answer to ‘how will Kamala handle [topic]’ is not…drumroll….
BUT WHAT ABOUT TRUMP?!?!
Dumbass. LOL.
At least Lib has stopped. Follow suit. You’re at least half as intelligent.
What about Trump??? Bahahahshahaaashaaahaaaaa Bahahahshahaaashaaahaaaaa Bahahahshahaaashaaahaaaaa Bahahahshahaaashaaahaaaaa
I’ll never mocking the Tards.
Good-bye.
Dude, sober up. Really.
Or go back to your HS penile drawings. More contributory.
Why are you such a piece of shit? Asking seriously.
Republicans rooting for bad news to somehow propel their imbecile into office again where they can preside over more bad news.
Fast Eddie says:
August 5, 2024 at 11:49 am
“How is President Harris going to handle it all?”
I don’t think there’s anyone, including the stooges here and the Dem hitmen that knocked off Joe, that believe Carmella can win, and can actually visualize an epic imbecile like her as president. It’s obvious they’re just trying to hide her and hope for the best, but it wouldn’t surprise me if the Dem power brokers try to get rid of her as well once they fully realize that she’s an even worse candidate than SlowJoe.
I’m basically liquidating my Schwab account. The fact that they bought TD is a crime.
1:47 oh now he’s “Joe”…not sleepy or traitor
Man you guys are pathetic . Pure & simple.
Phoenix: Welcome back!
Someone: That’ s assuming Harris has some understanding of whats going on in that area, and some history knowledge as well. Remember its only recently that she has been to Europe.
I don’t think there’s anyone, including the stooges here and the Dem hitmen that knocked off Joe, that believe Carmella can win…
I’m awestruck at how dumb this woman is. Cumola and AOC should do a weekly podcast together and discuss some tat and muffin top shit. In fact, there’s their on-air names, Tat and Muffin Top. But it’s no wonder why they were saying joe was the sharpest guy in the room. Compared to Cumola, an 80 year old dementia patient looks as sharp as a fighter pilot.
I think the fact that we have a Dementia patient in office and a shadow government that is completely incompetent is bad news enough.
Left: Harris is not up on any of the critical topics facing our country/ world today. She will not be effective on the world stage ( she will be destroyed). Amazing to me that all the Dems have followed lockstep in supporting Harris for President. There is not even a concern that she might not be up to the job. They are as blind as any Trump supporter.
BRT: We have co- Presidents, two are better than one. Harris met Netanyahu last week, and gave a speech after the meeting. She read it off a teleprompter.
Btw, if your info is filtered, you missed Biden wandering off onto the plane that returned the prisoners. They need an electric dog collar for him at this point
Usually, they need a few months of some fake diplomatic position at the UN to pretend they have foreign policy experience.
“Remember its only recently that she has been to Europe.”
And met with the German and Solvenian leaders to get them on board with the Prisoner swap.
I get that some people on this board don’t like her and that is fine, but the only consistency I get is that many hate all dems. You cant say that she is unqualified and yet Joe is not running the show as there is a cabal behind the scenes running the show anyway.
As I say to people like Left every cycle. Its not the Dems job to give you a candidate to your liking, just because the GOP has imploded. Go fix that party. At least Lib and a sizable number of my republican friends have found a new home with the Red Dogs.
https://apnews.com/article/harris-trump-republicans-kinzinger-haley-voters-8b67604df273c0e198b1d46eb4755d50
So it looks like Vanguard 2FA crapped out. Keys are not working and they are back to other authentication methods.
By the time I got in, my wishlist had bounced off the bottom. I got into a few that were still in my range, but others took off. They are long term holds so overall I’m happy, but they really have to do better.
“if your info is filtered, you missed Biden wandering off onto the plane that returned the prisoners” … was him going onto to the plane to thank the pilots that flew them back.
The right never miss a chance to strip context to feed the base.
Fab Max: So she met with the leaders of Germany and Slovenia, and because of that she is qualified to be the leader of the free world.
As for it not being the Democrats job to give us a candidate we like. It is the job of both parties to give us knowledgeable, experienced qualified candidates as choices, not a lunatic like Trump, or an unqualified inexperienced candidate like Harris. Her performance over these last years demonstrates that the Democrats failed in this endeavor. Not to mention of course that they lied and hid Biden’s decline, and then when they could no longer do that, they ruthlessly got rid of him.
It would be nice if for just once you could criticize your own party, but you will not and never will. You will always find an excuse, or engage in whataboutry.
It would be nice if for just once you could criticize your own party.
Technically its not my party, it is however the one I most closely align to. I am registered independent. But I will say the one thing St Ronnie got right is that you dont Sh1t on your own lawn.
I would have been happy to go with Joe, but I am glad they did not step over Harris as that would have been and issue with women and POC.
I dont have a problem with Pelosi outside of the stock trading. When people were calling for her ouster I was behind her as that is who I wanted facing off against McConnell.
The calls now from the right are for Joe to step aside. I think that is to try and term limit Harris in 2028 saying she was a two term president. If the next 4 years go well for her, she’ll carry 2028 as well.
They are so pathetic. Feeble minded bullshit.
Fabius Maximus says:
August 5, 2024 at 6:33 pm
“I am registered independent.”
You’re an Indy like Lib is a Rep. You, Lib, Lacks etc are toxically-feminized, blue state stooges — Dems through-and-through as evidenced by your pathetic willingness to fall in line behind Carmella. You’re also relatively harmless as long as you stay where you are so please, please, please don’t ever move to a red state.
Curious to hear from any of Carmella’s Cucks on today’s Carmella Crash, now that the market’s fear of her is hitting you where it counts. I know that none of you duds will change your mind, but make no mistake, a market crash is the least of our worries if that idiot is somehow installed as president.
And on the back of that, there is never going to be a realistic third party until the Electoral College is reformed. Perot and Nader showed that it is ineffective. But even if you have a choice you will still complain. Are you getting behind RFKs message?
Also, when I comment on Donnie, Vance or the GOP, I get accused of TDS or you’re just Whataboutism. Yet from you it’s Biden Harris, Biden Harris bad on every issue. Criticism of the other side seems limited to both sides gave us bad candidates. Nothing on how bad Vance has been out of the Gate (By the way, is he qualified?). No calls to replace Donnie or Vance. No comment of the platform or the gaffes. So WhatAboutThat, right back at you.
Yes I know how important it is for an administration to send competent leadership to meet other world leaders, lets roll tape.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l3p16tC2HfU
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=073hfPueac0
Small, what are the NewsMax, OAN and Fox talking points today? How did Kamala unwind the Yen Carry?
Also what are they saying about the lack of an Iranian response today. Is Donnies Peace in the Middle East finally taking effect?
Fab: I am on record for criticizing the Republicans and their choice of Trump again, as well as Vance. Your party that is supposedly not your party is supposed to be the adults or the good guys; it’s clear they are not. As for a3rd party and people still complaining, is that a problem for you? Are people not allowed to complain about politicians, or only the ones you don’t like?
As for the rest of your post it’s delayed whaaboutry to my earlier post.
Small the Kamala Crash is truly devastating.
https://x.com/krassenstein/status/1820473186548425131
BREAKING! This ‘Kamala Crash’ is devastating!
The stock market has crashed to the lowest levels seen in a staggering 52 days! What are we going to do?! How will we put food on the table?
People who invested 9 months ago are now only up 17%.
How will the billionaires survive this devastation?
3b,
Your a little light on receipts. Lets try and rectify that going foward.
How about this for a start? https://x.com/AccountableGOP/status/1812940196062642365
Comments?
Uh huh, and Obama wasn’t guiding him offstage either. Wait do you still think he’s sharp?
Fab: Your comment is obnoxious. I should know better.
3b, not Obnoxious, more Harsh, but Fair. I’ll put you down for a No Comment on removing Congressional oversight on Administration picks.
We may get an interesting day tomorrow with a possible VP pick. We have you on a No it wont be Shapiro and Lib on it will be. Any last adjustments.
Rape is up 10 percent in NYC but crime is down.
Nikkei up 9%, should be another crazy day tomorrow.
In other good news. Donnies sentencing scheduled for Sep can move ahead.