From Princeton Perspectives:
2025 New Jersey Economic Outlook
Real Estate – In real estate, the housing market could see moderate growth, however, housing affordability will remain a challenge. New Jersey’s municipalities are currently contemplating the impact of having to come up with a Housing Element and Fair Share Housing Plan by June 30ththis year. Using the numbers released by the state in 2024, Mercer County municipalities would be required to rehabilitate a total of 1,800 currently existing affordable units county wide, plus build 3,500 new units. Given that usually market rate housing is built to support the affordable units this could mean that thousands of new homes need to be built to meet those numbers. Certainly, housing is a big contributor to our local economy what with labor, lumber, supplies, and equipment.
Unemployment – Unemployment rates are expected to remain stable and low, although we may face shortages in certain sectors. With our states focus on clean energy there could be a boost in jobs related to renewable energy and infrastructure improvements.
State Budget – Governor Phil Murphy delivered his 2025 State of the State Address in the Assembly Chamber at the New Jersey State House January 14, 2025 (too late for this publication) and as of this posting his office released this statement:
“Over the past seven years, we have built a state that is stronger, fairer, and more prepared to face the future,” said Governor Murphy. “But our job is far from over. As we begin our final year of partnership, we remain more committed than ever to delivering economic security and opportunity to every New Jerseyan. And over the next 12 months, we are going to run through the tape in making New Jersey the best state—anywhere in America—to live, work, and raise a family.”
There will undoubtedly be budget challenges for New Jersey in 2025 and hopefully there will be fiscal responsibility, especially with the governor’s election happening this year. The new governor must deliver stability in their public policy initiatives as much of the new spending in the budget is not sustainable, and we should be hearing some good ideas to do so from the gubernatorial candidates. We have used $2.4 billion from New Jersey’s budget surplus, not a desirable move. The increase in the corporate business tax to 11.5% has placed us in an uncompetitive position making it harder to attract new business to New Jersey. This rate is the highest in the country and hopefully this unenviable position will receive sorely needed attention in 2025.
We cross our fingers that inflation rates will stabilize in 2025 as higher interest rates can and will affect consumer spending and the housing and auto markets, thus affect our economy.
Small Business – When we think about our local mom and pops and independent businesses there is concern about the new administrations mass deportation and tariffs. Immigrants are predominately working for small businesses who are still dealing with problems that emerged over the last few years: skilled labor shortages, supply chain issues, high costs thanks to inflation, and shrinking profit margins. Prices are still high and with the promise that on day one of the administration to impose tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China, there is valid concern of retribution and increased pricing on imports from these three countries. Mexico alone supplies almost 40% of all fruits and vegetables consumed in the U.S.
First
From the Daily Record:
NJ population passes 9.5 million, reaching a new record. See who’s coming and going
New Jersey’s population topped 9.5 million people in 2024, a state record, according to the latest estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau.
The estimates, released this month, show that the state’s population climbed to an estimated 9,500,851 in July 2024. The 1.3% increase from 2023 was the largest year-over-year growth rate in the Northeast.
“This census data is a testament to the important work being done every day across the administration to support our workers and continue building a stronger, fairer New Jersey,” Gov. Phil Murphy said. “We’re incredibly proud that New Jersey is among the top 10 states for population growth.”
…
Still, due to an influx of residents arriving from out of the country, the population continues to rise. In the three years before July 2024, New Jersey added 311,544 residents from foreign nations. The state’s total net growth since the 2020 census has been roughly 211,837 residents, Census Bureau records show.
…
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 4,391,600 jobs in the state as of November 2024, and 284,200 employers as of Sept. 30, 2024. Both were the highest totals in New Jersey’s history, state officials said.
grim says:
January 15, 2025 at 6:55 am
From the Daily Record: “…due to an influx of residents arriving from out of the country, the population continues to rise…New Jersey added 311,544 residents from foreign nations.”
Typical blue state; hemorrhaging talented, law-abiding taxpayers to the red states and back-filling with foreigners — many, if not most, illegal. No better symbol of this than the NYC public schools; enrollment decimated after DeBlasio trashed the gifted-and-talented program and school policy effectively turned over to the union during COVID, schools are literally being kept afloat by the children of illegal aliens.
Ten 467
Chi, I know you gave a primer on your cryptic futures(?) code before, but could you point me to it again? What does Ten 467 mean?
Small Con,
Of course NJ attracts immigrants. Jerzy has more job options than Waffle House, Walmart, stripper-h00ker, or moonshine/meth manufacturer.
My prediction, repost from last thread…
Yesterday morning on Bloomberg surveillance ~7:30am+, they had guest talking about how Wall Street is salivating at bonuses this year as they expect very helpful and compliant supervision to their needs ans helpers of their great new idea and I predict circa 2027~2028 cause of financial crisis.
Private Credit is the bonus making word of ’25. Goldman is actually jealous that Apollo thought and acted on it first. Apollo gave a big loan to Intel. Previously this type of large loan to a reputable company would have been made by a regulated bank or syndicate of banks.
Apollo set up a trading desk. This desk will trade Intel and other Apollo made loans’ derivatives. Mind you they are not trading the loans themselves, but the Loan Backed Security Derivative Contracts tranches and Loan Backed Security Contracts Backed Collaterized Obligations tranches- 20 yrs ago they were trading the same idea based on mortgages. Remember Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) and Mortgage Backed Collaterized Debt Obligations (MBCDO) same thing, different name for the turd.
Big boys like GS, KKR, Apollo doing this to well known publicly listed company sound decent, but you know that soon enough there is going to be some bank making and selling LBS/LBSCDO tranches on Fort Lee Massage parlors loans.
25% of New Jersey’s population are immigrants.
When we think about our local mom and pops and independent businesses there is concern about the new administrations mass deportation and tariffs.
The deportations will primarily be those with bad intentions. The 2nd tier will be those that are milling about with their sanctuary issued benefits. Those that have been toiling for years in restaurant kitchens and on landscape trucks will continue to do so. At the same time, the southern border will represent the Berlin Wall with ultra-tight security presence. Try to cross illegally and the Belgian Malinois’ will be released.
Chicago,
Voted.
All of America, except the poor Native Americans are immigrants.
SmallGov, where did your folks sneak in from?
RentLord,
Listen to Bloomberg Surveillance in the morning, it will explain a lot….
Right now the Consumer Price Index came out today along with yesterday’s Producer Price Index showing disinflation, with the stickiest form of service inflation “rent inflation” dropping fast.
So it looks like the all clear for stock bull market to continue if business earning are as expected BUT nothing is written down and everyone is holding their breath until OrangeTurd starts blabbing and signing away in an official capacity next week.
Tariffs will increase product inflation along with the “Insanity Premium” that is in the financial markets because of his continually caotic unknown unknown decisions and how the rest of the world will react to it in the economic, military. foreign policy, etc.
So the 20yrs/10yrs/ 5yrs US Gov’t Bonds/Notes are great bellwethers of risk appetite vs reward. Why are you going to buy BitCoin when you can get 4.67% from the USG and can buy it direct from them in TreasuryDirect.Gov
Or if they were paying 1% and inflation was running 1-2% like from 2009-2019, then it makes more sense to put the money in BitCoins, Houses, Stocks or anything that pays more.
Or, maybe you are a bastard child that does not know. It’s alright.. just keep collecting social security (money from the tax paying immigrants) and shut up.
Got it ( at least I think I do). Thanks Chi
Comp for GS is up 8% but it’s only the deal makers that will see a bump.
As far as massage parlor financing, don’t mess with the Triad. 9,000-plus of these
businesses are operating in every state in the country, with earnings totaling nearly $3 billion a year. That is allot of rub and tugs at $40 a pop.
That is however also barely a blip in the finance markets, and they like their money liquid as in cash only for money laundering and tax evasion purposes. No way some kind of new securitized product is going to take off getting into any of those rackets.
If you look at the business formed from the failed credit Swiss unit and Apollo, they are trying to pick up the stuff that might fall thru the cracks. Lending money to Intel? Lots of risk there.
The increase in the corporate business tax to 11.5% has placed us in an uncompetitive position making it harder to attract new business to New Jersey. This rate is the highest in the country and hopefully this unenviable position will receive sorely needed attention in 2025.
Pensions, nepotism, gluttony at the trough, assistants to the assistants, sidewalk supervisors… public abuse at the hands of private production. Ayn Rand illustrated it perfectly.
And how do we vet the good immigrants from the bad ones? Sorry Gary, but the Berlin Wall stretched the entire length of Berlin. The Southern Wall more resembles swiss cheese than a wall.
Ayn Rand was on welfare.
Libturd says:
January 15, 2025 at 10:05 am
“And how do we vet the good immigrants from the bad ones”
Typical Dem; expects nothing from his elected officials, excuses their terrible governance and accepts the steadily declining standard of living as a result of it. Lib sounds like Eeyore…
– It’s impossible to secure our borders
– We need to live with crumbling infrastructure and learn to dodge potholes
– It’s impossible to stop the fires from destroying LA
– It’s OK for the the prez to pardon his corrupt kid
Blue team, you finally got the message it’s good to own a weapon in case the apocalypse comes your way:
Some wealthy Los Angeles homeowners have taken up arms to defend their devastated neighborhoods from looters.
Residents of Altadena, where fires demolished more than 2,700 structures, have been patrolling the area, questioning strangers, as they work to keep away criminals who want to take advantage of the chaos.
In some homes, residents have messages that read: ‘Owner armed and present.’
She was an ex-grifter later talking shite. It’s amazing how we put trolls like her and God on the same pedestal.
Both book writing freaks who have done no actual good at all for society.
LAX says:
January 15, 2025 at 10:14 am
Ayn Rand was on welfare.
And how do we vet the good immigrants from the bad ones?
Technically speaking, the same way our ancestors had to be vetted but apparently that’s no longer required. Get here by any means possible and blend in as quickly as possible. I mean… am I wrong? Is there still a process?
As for the bad ones? Well if you were arrested and convicted of a felony, that’s a pretty good indicator that you’re being shipped out. Member of a gang? Gone. Ties to terr0rists? Gone. Human traffickers’? Gone. Chinese and Russian intelligence activity? Gone. Illegal activists and dissidents? Gone. How many different countries crossed the southern border in the last four years?
It’s amazing how we put trolls like her and God on the same pedestal.
God is a troll? Who knew.
10% of New Jersey’s population are immigrants.
https://data.census.gov/table/ACSDT1Y2023.B05001?q=nj&t=Citizenship:Native%20and%20Foreign-Born
“patrolling the area, questioning strangers, as they work to keep away criminals who want to take advantage of the chaos.”
Release the KARENS!
Fab you wannkkker top chart in the link below it has increased from just over 20% to 25% per the last 15 years. This is data from Trenton.
https://www-doh.nj.gov/doh-shad/indicator/summary/Dem_Nat.html#:~:text=Compared%20to%20the%20US%20as,%2C%20respectively%2C%20in%202023).
Take a look at the county chart too…certain counties like Hudson and Passaic are nearly 40% foreign born.
Should be lots of rentals available after the tanks roll out.
Eddie,
God doesn’t exist so by definition that makes him a troll
Touché
Fabius
“ I think she is a witch.”
“ How do you know she’s a witch??”
“ she turned me into a newt.”
LAX
what kind of God would’ve allowed the destruction that happened in your area?
It’s an absolute shame what happened there. I’m glad you’re OK and I wish all the people out there the best.
there is no God. However, there is good and evil.
10:34
From 2000–2012, the average annual unauthorized entries exceeded 1.4 million people nationwide
From 2013–2020, the average unauthorized entries dropped to just over 190,000
It’s always based on economic opportunity. The border crossings have again slowed dramatically. With MAGA in office, there is little opportunity for immigrants. I’m guessing the economy will turn within three years without their help. I just hope they don’t blame it on the Jews this time around.
CBP says over 9 million in the last 4 years.
https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/nationwide-encounters
LAX says:
January 15, 2025 at 12:13 pm
10:34
From 2000–2012, the average annual unauthorized entries exceeded 1.4 million people nationwide
From 2013–2020, the average unauthorized entries dropped to just over 190,000
Gonna wish you had some of those illegals working in California scraping up the toxic soil, hauling away the ashes, framing, roofing, and siding the new houses, laying the block, replacing the landscaping.
Blaming anything on the Jews, blacks, Indians, whites, Chinese, etc is all bullshite.
All groups have good individuals. All groups have bad characters. No religion prevents that.
End of message.
War in Russia is really heating up. Amazing how a proxy war with a nuclear power isn’t even discussed in the media.
Those G7 World Economic bas turds are really not liking Russian success. I guess it’s their idea of the Pasadena fire.
President Biden announces the historic ceasefire:
“I can announce a cease fire and a hostage deal has been reached between Israel and Hamas for more than 15 months of conflict that began with (Hamas’) brutal massacre on October the 7th.”
Great Job Joe!
Juice let me correct it.
10% of New Jersey’s population are immigrants that have not yet naturalized.
So if people come here and naturalize why do you care where they live?
How about Wallington, 70% white and 42% foreign born. Any issues there?
Oopsies:
Hey you stoo opid arrogant fuc cs. How about you legislate that no one is allowed to keep all of this data on Americans to begin with?. Oh, you won’t do that, because it’s an end run around the constitution for you. You enjoy watching us as much as the Chinese watch their citizens, except you scream the lie “freedom” when in fact there is none.
Good job hackers. I hope you dump all of the data out in the open. I have nothing to hide. But those in power most certainly do.
N S A Warns iPhone And Android Users—Disable Location Tracking
A leak at data broker Gravy Analytics might have exposed precise location data from some of the most popular Android and iOS apps, 404Media reports.
While the impact of the breach is unconfirmed, a screenshot posted by the hackers on the Russian cybercrime forum XSS indicated they have the “personal data of millions” of users.
According to screenshots posted on X by Baptiste Robert, CEO of digital security company Predicta Lab, the exposed data also includes location information from the White House, Kremlin, Vatican, military bases, and other sensitive areas.
Affected apps include Temple Run, Subway Surfers, Tinder, Grindr, MyFitnessPal, Candy Crush, Truecaller, 9GAG, Microsoft 365, and others. The full list shared by Wired also had some pregnancy-tracker and religion-focused apps.
Gravy Analytics notified the Norwegian Data Protection Authority of the breach last week, stating that it identified unauthorized access to its AWS cloud storage on Jan. 4 via a “misappropriated access key.” According to 404Media, since Gravy collects data from the advertising ecosystem, the breach likely occurred without the users’ or app developers’ knowledge.
If you only stopped tracking us you dolts….
The hostage release comes five days before Trump is sworn in. This is 1981 all over again. They feared the outcome of a Reagan administration and history repeats… Trump vowed there would be hell to pay. Peace through strength, the Trump administration vs. the weak and ineffective O’Biden regime, failure vs. success… there it is.
Well, I do have to say Trump is getting a lot of results and he isn’t even in office yet. Hopefully he can get this Ukrainian war to some type of settlement soon. It’s a lot of blood and US treasure to put into a three year stalemate (or Mexican Standoff as I like to say).