From HousingWire:
Home sales are stalled with 7% mortgages
New contracts for home purchases are coming in very low this month. We counted 10% fewer home sales for the week than the same week a year ago.
In the fourth quarter of 2024, sales were coming in at 5% to 10% more than the year prior. Those sales gains have evaporated and even reversed. Buyer activity has been dropping for several weeks and there are now fewer homes in contract than a year ago. Both the weekly new contracts and all the homes in the contract pending stage are below last year.
This housing market is on hold until mortgage rates come down. When will that be? I have no idea. We knew that mortgage rates over 7% were possible for the year, and here we are. I still expect we’ll spend most of the year under 7% for the 30-year fixed rate mortgage, but until that happens, home sales are at a standstill.
There’s signal that the price buyers are paying is declining too. I’ll share some of those signals in a minute.
Sales are slow, so inventory of unsold homes is building. Condo inventory is growing faster than single family. Some markets are much slower than others. Let’s look at the Altos Research data for this week, the middle of January 2025.
…
There are now 632,000 single-family homes unsold on the market around the U.S. That’s up 1.25% from last week. It’s almost 25% more homes unsold than a year ago. As I mentioned, inventory of unsold condos is growing faster than that of single-family houses. There are 177,000 condos on the market. That’s 30% more than a year ago.
It’s not uncommon for inventory to tick up in mid-January like it did this week. The holidays are over, some of the spring listings come out, and there are not a lot of sales yet. It’s also common for inventory to dip again before the end of the month. And you can see that in each year’s pattern here.
…
Inventory is building because of demand weakness, not because of supply growth. In fact, it seems like the high mortgage rates are holding back new listings, too. There were only 46,000 new listings for single-family homes this week with another 7,000 immediate sales.
The immediate sales are those that are listed and take offers within a few days, so they’re no longer in active inventory. There were 2% fewer sellers now than the same week a year ago but 3.6% more of those new listings unsold than a year ago. So, slightly fewer sellers, but inventory is growing faster than last year.
…
The sales growth we measured in Q4 is gone, and home price gains from 2024 are looking like they’ve mostly evaporated, too.
The median price of those homes that went into contract this week — newly pending home sales — is $375,000. That’s essentially unchanged from a year ago, up just half a percent. Normally, this time of year you’d expect sales prices to be moving up each week. You get fresh new inventory, the first spring buyers are looking, and that pushes sales prices higher in the first quarter — usually. But this year, the pricing pressure is much weaker. Demand is weak and there is no upward pressure on sales prices. In normal years, home prices rise 5% or so over the prior year. This year is starting out much weaker for home prices than normal years.
Frist bichez
Somebody get a net…..AOC is now telling the ADL that they are defending the Nazis…
I feel sorry for her Fiancée, he must have to sit and listen to her nonsense.
“Just to be clear, you are defending a Heil Hitler salute that was performed and repeated for emphasis and clarity.
People can officially stop listening to you as any sort of reputable source of information now. You work for them. Thank you for making that crystal clear to all.”
https://x.com/AOC/status/1881493371900113227
There does seem to be a so called Trump Effect going on. Some illegals are self deporting. Markets are going up. Optimism and consumer confidence are on the rise. Two genders are recognized as the law of the land once again. No one is asking me for my pronouns anymore.
In other news we transferred the funds yesterday to buy our neighbor’s house. I already have the keys and have been bringing a few things over there. I need to figure out how to remove the chain link fence that divides the properties so I don’t ruin the fence. I might want to use it again sometime in the future if we would sell the place someday.
Chad,
You’re in Germany? Yes?
I still expect we’ll spend most of the year under 7% for the 30-year fixed rate mortgage, but until that happens, home sales are at a standstill.
The median price of those homes that went into contract this week — newly pending home sales — is $375,000. That’s essentially unchanged from a year ago, up just half a percent.
So, prices have reached a plateau and the rates will not move. We’re at the same spot as a year ago and will most likely be at the same spot next year. This will go on until the market catches up to the push forward.
Inventory is building because of demand weakness, not because of supply growth. In fact, it seems like the high mortgage rates are holding back new listings, too.
So, inventory is building but rates are holding back inventory. Do I have it correctly? Joyce would tell me that reading is hard. Joyce, where are you??
Fast Eddie,
Yes, I‘m in Germany. The closing is done a bit differently here. After transferring the funds we have to send the confirmation from the bank to the lawyer (Notar). When the seller receives it in her bank account she also notifies the lawyer. The seller will then read her meters, pay her utilities and then we‘ll sign up for the utilities. The lawyer meanwhile notifies the city to put the property in our name. It is usually a two to three month process after signing the contract at the initial meeting with the lawyer (our signing of the contract was on 6 December). Usually there is no home inspection prior to the purchase but the buyer can do that if they want to. As mentioned before, the Germans normally remove the entire kitchen- cabinets, stove, fridge, sink, etc. Kind of a strange custom so that will be one of my first purchases. It‘s an old house but has been well maintained.
Chad,
Interesting. You answered my follow-up. The kitchen extraction is sort of weird but… when in Germany, do as the Germans do. And a maintained old house is always the best.
Ten 457
So Chad, are you saying Vivek did not leave DOGE because of Musk’s Hitler salute?
Why did Joe pardon everyone, because Donnie is petty and will pursue a grudge.
https://x.com/MarkSZaidEsq/status/1881528749956731076
President Trump just issued Executive Order to revoke #securityclearances of 51 signatories, eight of whom I rep, who signed Hunter Biden laptop letter in 2020.
But here’s the problems with it:
Yeah, Chud, a new optimism. LMAO
Had to wait 30 minutes for the rental car shuttle at Hertz this morning in Denver and could have missed the plane. Now sitting on tarmac for thirty minutes in Newark since we came in thirty minutes early and the pilot claims there is no ground crew to usher us into a gate. Meanwhile every gate I’m looking at is empty.
Sure feels different under Trump.
Libturd,
Implying that the EWR ground crew for United just can’t bear to show up now that they see Elon pledging to Heil Hitler?
Maybe they just had too much fun during the MLK long weekend and called in sick?
Can any constitutional lawyers comment on the efficacy of a preventative pardon?
Speaking of the constitution, I hate Trump’s idea of declaring an “energy emergency” to have the executive branch make defacto law. Or an “immigration emergency” to create emergency laws there. The US is increasingly moving to too much power vested in agencies, too much “emergency” power to bypass law. It’s ADHD government. If something is structurally broken, then put in the time, effort and persuasion to fix it long term.
Otherwise the next leftist president declares a “climate emergency” or a “health emergency” and regulates everything and everybody at whim and violates everyone’s individual rights all over again.
RentLord,
I think Vivek has his own ambitions and sees a better opportunity to accomplish them.
Stock up on that Insulin! BOHIC!
https://x.com/TristanSnell/status/1881675381780119833
Tristan Snell @TristanSnell
BREAKING — Trump RAISES prescription drug costs by as much as 4200%.
He just reversed all the cost caps Biden negotiated for anyone on Medicare or Medicaid, over 120 MILLION Americans.
He’s pro Big Pharma — and pro Big Insurance.
He doesn’t care about you. It was all LIES.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NqTQAvXPGiQ
very relevant to our times. Perhaps at least he didn’t dodge the draft
Don’t worry about those drug prices, Trump will just hug the flag again and everything will be fine.
I am incredibly uncomfortable with Musk being this close to the highest cabinet in the land. I could care less about Joe or Trump. We’ve seen both shows before, and I am okay with watching a rerun of either. I am however very troubled by how we’ve allowed Elon, a private citizen, to feel right at home in this country’s highest offices.
All of it – gestures about the room – seems a bit cheapened now. Started with justice Thomas and is getting curb stomped by Elon’s personal involvement with US politics.
Boomer,
Unless Chi is managing at least 0.5 billion for you and your private jet is parked in Teterboro or White Plains after your trip to Davos. Then you should not be worry as you are a mere peasant, so get back to work. That is why is called Oligarchy/Plutocracy.
Baton Rouge, five inches of snow and still falling. Check out the French Quarter:
https://wxyzwebcams.com/en/webcam-1023.php
Boomer Remover says:
January 21, 2025 at 1:44 pm
“I am incredibly uncomfortable with Musk being this close to the highest cabinet in the land.”
Yeah, was much better when it was Al Sharpton advising SlowJoe.
Your statement is not dispositive.
If this set of comments were true, then the stock market would reflect the change in economic opportunity. It does not, nor has there been any appreciable change since the election with ONE exception. The nomination of RFK Jr. caused an immediate drop by 5% of stock prices. Otherwise no movement. Additionally, the Biden Administration allowed compounders to steal patent protected IP under the guise of a shortage from Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk.
Fabius Maximus says:
January 21, 2025 at 12:42 pm
Stock up on that Insulin! BOHIC!
https://x.com/TristanSnell/status/1881675381780119833
Tristan Snell @TristanSnell
BREAKING — Trump RAISES prescription drug costs by as much as 4200%.
He just reversed all the cost caps Biden negotiated for anyone on Medicare or Medicaid, over 120 MILLION Americans.
He’s pro Big Pharma — and pro Big Insurance.
He doesn’t care about you. It was all LIES.
NFLX oh shit….
Boomer,
You are wasting your time. MAGA can do no wrong.
“The nomination of RFK Jr. caused an immediate drop by 5% of stock prices”
Not a single shark attack since tha nomination as well.
Fab – current Medicare and Medicaid enrollees will not see their drug prices go up.
There are plans to test ways to lower drug prices. Again its test plans….that were cancelled. Nobody knows if these plans when tested will actually work. The cap on insulin is also still in effect.
Here’s an honest question for the GREAT MAGA supporters here.
What’s worse? An immigrant being deported after raping and murdering an American or the President pardoning an American citizen who killed a DC cop on J6?
I know you won’t answer. Because MAGA can do no wrong.
Lib: Not a MAGA supporter. Just trying to keep some rationale discourse on this blog which is sorely lacking. To answer your question, both are wrong. Sadly though had Trump not pardoned the cop killer you would not have mentioned the innocent people killed by illegal migrants. When the topic has come up in the past, at best you have been indifferent. Illegal migrants who have committed crimes should be deported, period. I don’t know how any reasonable person, Democrat or Republican could have a problem with this belief. But, Democrats would have to admit that giving up control of the border was a mistake, and Democrats can do no wrong.
Trump just announced a trillion dollar investment in artificial intelligence with Larry Ellison, Sam Altman and Masayoshi Son. There will be 20 super structures built across the nation to generate AI solutions to various issues. Ellison explained how these particular developments will result in advancements in health care and cures for various diseases including cancer. He said advancements will come quickly and explained, for example, how they’ll be able to take a blood test, identify potential cancer issues, develop a personal vaccine all within 48 hours. They’ll be thousands of jobs created as a result of this new technology. All three of the men present with Trump said this wouldn’t have been possible without Trump.
3B,
I am 100% in support of deporting immigrants, illegal or legal, who commit crime. I also think we should vet and process all immigrants. I am against limiting immigration. Heck, if you don’t want to provide them with government services until they receive citizenship, I would be okay with it as a compromise. I firmly believe immigration is one of America’s most advantageous economic situations and this will be proven in the next three years when prices fly upwards when we can’t find legal American’s to perform the jobs immigrants are willing to. And yes, I’ve said clearly the Democratic strategy was to allow as many immigrants as possible into the country as it would create future Dem voters. Unfortunatly, this clearly backfired on them as the less recent immigrants fear the newer immigrants will take their jobs. Regardless, we must process all immigrants. This would not be difficult to do. There is no political will from either party to do this. And yes, the Dems screwed up in letting anyone and everyone in. As is always the case when the parties have given up on compromise, the pendulum swings way to far in one direction or the other and in this case, the Dems should have focused on processing the criminals instead of focusing on sanctuary for them. It sucks to always be the voice of reason. And yes, feel free to keep attacking me. All I am is honest.
In other news, I hope some you bought SOFI when I told you to. It hit 18 today. And it’s legitamite.
Gary,
The AI plan sounds great. But the circus barker has made such similar promises in the past. IMO, Trump continues to speak loudly and carry the smallest stick ever.
New presidents and presidents-elect have often held joint announcements with companies about massive US investments to promote a supposed rebirth of American industry. But their track record for success is decidedly mixed.
Trump in 2017 announced with Foxconn a massive $10 billion electronics factory in Wisconsin that was expected to create 13,000 jobs. But the company eventually abandoned most of its plans for the facility and the high-tech products it was set to build. The company in 2021 said it would invest just $672 million in a revised deal that would create fewer than 1,500 jobs.
Foxconn has said it invested $1 billion into the state, however, and it still has a major manufacturing site for data servers with more than 1,000 employees. But the facility Trump announced has become a Microsoft data hub that aims to train employees and manufacturers on how to best use artificial intelligence.
Too Fast 5:44,
This give me “The Dropout” movie vibes.
Elizabeth Holmes was less efficient in her fraud.
Sam Altman repeated that we’re going to see unprecedented accelerated advancements in curing diseases including cancer and heart disease. The project is called Stargate – next-generation AI supercomputer data center(s). Trump just wrapped up another one hour Q and A with the press.
What’s worse? An immigrant being deported after raping and murdering an American or the President pardoning an American citizen who killed a DC cop on J6?
I would go with pardoning a government official who circumvented a presidential order to stop funding gain of function research likely leading to the death of millions of people as the one you should be concerned about. What’s that Joseph Stalin quote again?
My wife asked the AI as a test to make a number line from -2 to 2 in increments of 0.5 with certain data points on the number line marked. It placed the points in the wrong spot and screwed up the number line itself. We are a long way from a machine curing cancer. We are also a long way away from mRNA curing anything. Wait…lemme guess after it fails, we will at least be grateful it made the cancer less symptomatic.
Stargate, 3/29/2024
https://www.reuters.com/technology/microsoft-openai-planning-100-billion-data-center-project-information-reports-2024-03-29/
9:27,
Thus, in the first few hours of his presidency, it appears that the Trump administration will announce a $100 billion initial commitment to Stargate that could scale fivefold in the next four years.
So, from planning to a commitment.
BRT 9:00 RE: AI
That’s alright.
Now that the President, instead of asking what can go wrong or setting up guard rails, is going to take all our tax dollars and give it to these megalomaniacs for having a fun time.
And then more billions diverted to SpaceX instead of NASA.
And the affordable drug prices act for seniors on medicare has been repealed. Dept of Education will be gutted. Federal employees who work for pittance to keep the lights on will be fired. Remember what happened to USPS the last time.
The wealth will flow to the richest faster than ever, while the likes of Fast Eddie and Smallman cheer him on.
Make America Grate Again baby!
Re: “ Elizabeth Holmes was less efficient in her fraud”
They sprinkled in a little Elizabeth Holmes into this project Stargate too so called liquid biopsies, aka earlier cancer detection. It already exists these blood tests are $1000 a pop.
https://www.galleri.com/patient/faqs
Massive long term clinical trial to prove it even works, it’s not FDA approved.
Larry Ellison ties to spin this tale of early detection. We already have the test, he says we need AI to do it well we don’t, then he talks about tumors and unproven MRNA treatments.
“Little fragments of those [cancer] tumors float around in your blood. So you can do early cancer detection. If you can do it using AI, you can do early cancer detection with a blood test and using AI to look at the blood test,” Ellison said.
“Once we gene sequence that cancer tumor, you can then vaccinate the person —design a vaccine for every individual person that vaccinates them against that cancer. That mRNA vaccine, you can make that robotically, again using AI, in about 48 hours”
Another point house spend already companies are expected to spend around $202 billion on AI-optimized servers in 2025. Huge buildout already occulting, seems like they want Uncle Sam to subsidize it.
Last point where is Elon? You would think with all of his Mar a largo meetings he would e all over this grift.
More on this Sam Altman bought himself some Trump time with his million dollar donation to the Trump inauguration.
He rehashed his deck he already pitched to Biden’s people last year.
https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/heres-the-5gw-30-million-sq-ft-data-center-pitch-doc-openai-showed-the-white-house/
This AI announcement is pure fiction. As was the wall. As was making Mexico pay for it. Again you were duped. Still waiting for the ACA replacement. Only been 9 years since it’s promised. But focus on AOC like anyone cares about her. Now that MAGA is in power, we get to countdown to the disaster that it’s going to be. On the bright side, people like me should do very well. The Family Dollar customer, is about to get ass raped. Perhaps this experiment will teach the Dems to take the high road for a change?
full and unconditional pardon for Ross Ulbricht?
Commute sure but pardon?
you guys need to chill out. You just spent 4 years straight of denying bad news, you can’t ignore 1.5 days of crap?
Where is this from? It’s not from the March 2024 Reuters article that first mentioned the project.
Fast Eddie says:
January 21, 2025 at 9:40 pm
9:27,
Thus, in the first few hours of his presidency, it appears that the Trump administration will announce a $100 billion initial commitment to Stargate that could scale fivefold in the next four years.
So, from planning to a commitment.
“Sam Altman repeated that we’re going to see unprecedented accelerated advancements in curing diseases including cancer and heart disease. The project is called Stargate – next-generation AI supercomputer data center(s). Trump just wrapped up another one hour Q and A with the press.”
Sam Altman is a fine businessman turning VC projects into non-profit and then profit. His empire at OpenAI will lose all the funding after a small lab showed how open-source AI project can be done, shared in MIT license, open source etc. At the cost of 2% of what open-ai does. This week was a big one with DeepSeek-R1 achieving quality of most modern reasoning models. They showed that there is no moat even with inferior hardware.
Now with that 500B promise, OpenAI/Oracle can buy Intel, spend money on NVDA/AMD, at least commit to a never ending project, milk much more on the way and spend trillions of tax money in the name of curing cancer etc. Holmes at scale.
The jobs created 100K, the jobs replaced by AI 4M. Do the math.
I never expected MAGA like gay, libertarian, silicon valley crypto/technocrats. Opposing polarities have the most attraction force I must say.