From the National Association of Realtors:
Pending Home Sales fell 0.5% in November, nationwide, down 11.4% year over year. The Northeast saw a monthly decline of 2.8%, down 9.6% year over year. Yet another sign that the market has clearly not bottomed.
From MarketWatch:
Pending home sales dip 0.5% in November
A leading indicator of existing-home sales dipped 0.5% in November, the third straight decline, the National Association of Realtors reported Thursday. The pending home sales index fell to 107.0 November from 107.5 in October. The index is based on sales contracts for existing homes signed in November. The real estate trade group said the index is pointing to stabilization in the housing market. The pending sales index is down 11.4% from November 2005. The report is “another indicator that home sales likely bottomed-out in September,” said NAR chief economist David Lereah.
From Bloomberg:
Pending Sales of Existing Homes in U.S. Fell 0.5% in November
Fewer Americans signed contracts to buy previously-owned homes in November, suggesting weakness in the real-estate market may extend into the new year.
An index of signed purchase agreements fell 0.5 percent, a third consecutive decline, to 107 from 107.5 in October, the National Association of Realtors said today in Washington. The index was down 11.4 percent from November 2005.
The decline from the previous year has been narrowing since July, suggesting sales may be stabilizing, the group said. The improvement may also stem a weakening in home prices that threatens to check consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy.
…
Economists expected the index to rise 0.7 percent in November, according to the median of 17 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey, after a decline of 1.7 percent the month before. Estimates ranged from a drop of 1 percent to an increase of 2.1 percent.The Realtors’ group reported last week that sales of previously owned homes unexpectedly rose 0.6 percent in November after rising 0.5 percent a month earlier. It was the first back- to-back increase gain since March 2005.
The index of pending home resales is considered a leading indicator of sales because it tracks contract signings. The Realtors’ sales report tracks closings, which typically occur a month or two later.
“Yet another sign that the market has clearly”
Hmm, fill in the blank?
“returned to normal”?
“hit bottom”?
“became a buyer’s market”?
The report is “another indicator that home sales likely bottomed-out in September,” said NAR chief economist David Lereah.
Oh, so close.
Hit the enter key on accident.
jb
“Yeah Im free, free fallin…”, is a very good choice for an open house ambiance background music.(not recommended as “elevator music” though)
Am I dense or does the “another indicator that home sales likely bottomed-out in September” comment make any sense at all?
For those of you looking to take the pulse of the nation, interesting set of stats can be found here: http://www.bigresearch.com/news/EBNov06.htm
“BIGresearch’s Consumer Intentions & Actions Survey monitors over 8,000 consumers each month
providing unique insights & identifying opportunities in a fragmented and transitory marketplace” and it’s meant for marketing executives.
Some high/lowlights include:
* 46.9% of consumers contend they are confident/very confident in chances for a strong economy, down from 50.3% last month but an increase from the same time last year when only 43.7% of consumers were confident
* 40.8% of consumers declare they’ve become more practical in the last 6 months, down almost a full 5 points from last year (45.5%). That means less people feel the need to be practical this year vs. last year.
* About 50% of consumers say they focus more on needs over wants in purchases, fewer are doing so compared to last year (55.2%).
Read the whole thing and you will quickly understand why this nation has a negative savings rate. No pre-planning for anything other than rosy times. I guess its the same reason there is a run on bottled water whenever LA gets hit with an earthquake over 3.2 on the richter scale.
Since things are so great, I’m gonna go buy me a McMansion at 10% over 2005 peak prices, a Weber Summit 620 to go in the backyard and a BMW 3 Series Coupe to park in the driveway. All this saving up is getting boring.
From Bloomberg:
Housing Data Yield a False Sense of Complacency
As 2006 drew to a close, a sense of calm washed over the U.S. financial markets. There would be no emergency rescue by the Federal Reserve after all because housing, the most likely candidate to infect the other sectors, was stabilizing.
End-of-year data had certainly conveyed that impression, with housing starts, sales and homebuilder surveys no longer falling after 12 to 18 months of steady declines.
The revelers scooped up stocks, raised a glass and rang out the old year secure in the knowledge that the glut of homes on the market would be worked off without inflicting too much pain on homeowners, builders or financial institutions, allowing the economy to reaccelerate without any outside help.
The sense of complacency may be premature. For starters, the unseasonably warm weather is probably distorting the housing statistics. Seasonal adjustment factors, which, as the name implies, adjust actual data for monthly variations — historically more homes are started in June than in January — weren’t exactly anticipating the balmy weather experienced by the Northeast in December.
“Yet another sign that the market has clearly”.. just farted
may i add… “more to come”
Some more anecdotal evidence of prices falling:
MLS# 2700277 – Devon Street – Kearny, NJ
Currently asking: $302,500
This property was purchased on 8/1/2005 for $318,000. The asking price was $329,000 when it was purchased.
jb
chi-fi or others,
My friend who started on a new job was briefed on the company’s 401K plan.
Friend was told about 50% of the offered funds will be changed every year!
If someone is invested in a fund that will be retired next year, all the savings from the current fund will be transferred to a new fund which will take it’s place.
Any thoughts about why someone will want to change fund availability by 50% every year?
and
What should we be looking for?
Thank you.
Gee why are they selling?
Isn’t a reason to purchase a house is for a place to live?
I quess they seen too many “Flip this house” episodes
I can still hear seller’s laugh
James,
Where and how do I vote for your blog? Thanks.
Gary,
http://www.housingwire.com/2007-rebas
jb
what I do not get is why every almost every house for sale I looked, was originally purchased in 2005/2004 and 2006….
You know what this means – that Almost Every single home for sale right now was purchased in 2004-06 were made with intention to flip and make a killing…….
And here is prime example of it:
James Bednar Says:
January 4th, 2007 at 11:54 am
Some more anecdotal evidence of prices falling:
MLS# 2700277 – Devon Street – Kearny, NJ
Currently asking: $302,500
This property was purchased on 8/1/2005 for $318,000. The asking price was $329,000 when it was purchased.
jb
Or they purchased the house with an ARM that’s about to reset and realized they can’t afford the new rates and don’t qualify to refi either because there’s no equity in the home.
JB:
Any help on the following 2 listings would be greatly appreciated.
njmls 2639773
njmls 2640251
These 2 listings I belive sold within the last year, or so and are now back on the market.
Done! Thanks James!
Or they purchased the house with an ARM that’s about to reset and realized they can’t afford the new rates and don’t qualify to refi either because there’s no equity in the home.
Which would require the seller to bring a $30,000 check to closing, if it sells at asking.
jb
“The revelers scooped up stocks, raised a glass and rang out the old year”
…..and then proceeded to get whacked yesterday and so far today[HB’s stocks]. I guess Lennar closed the bar early.
Well, I ignore the seasonally adjusted and use the non-seasonally adjusted, and those figures show a different trend.
Overall, weather in November was exceptionally favorable compared to last year, so that will distort the adjustment.
When you are in the second year of a housing correction, you better hope that the rate of year-over-year is declining. The market will start stabilizing when the year over year sales declines stop and when inventory stops growing, which it hasn’t yet. Every price drop out there puts more and more borrowers underwater.
njrebear Says:
January 4th, 2007 at 11:57 am
chi-fi or others,
My friend who started on a new job was briefed on the company’s 401K plan. Friend was told about 50% of the offered funds will be changed every year! Any thoughts about why someone will want to change fund availability by 50% every year?
Bear:?!? There is no defensible reason to make such changes, unless the company plans to provide a benefit to participating employees. I have no details, but on the surface, it sounds like patent nonsense.
Wild guesses –
#1 the owner/decisionmaker at the company thinks that they are being savvy and aggressive by constantly rank ordering the funds and eliminating the underperformers
#2 the owner/decisionmaker has been sold a “bill of good” by the 401(k) plan administrator, and is being taken to the cleaners in a strucutre that probably generates extra fees to someone
#3 your friend misunderstood the information
If true: I would only participate in the plan to the extent of gaining the maximum company matching/prfot sharing possible. The caveats would be that maybe the plan offers access to some specialized set of investments that are normally not offer in a retail setting to the public. If this plan is just standard….ouch!
By the way: if you have any details I could review, I would be very curious to see what the complete story is….merci
Meteor hits a home in NJ:
http://www.cnn.com/2007/US/01/04/fallen.object.ap/
#22, that’s actually a realtor crushed by the housing bust ;-)
#9
Your friend’s company 401k adminstrator should be fired. They are definitely not looking into their employees’ best interest when they turnover 50% of offered funds every year.
Probably doing it to line the company’s pockets a little more….
Thanks Chi-fi.
Non of the offered mutual funds are exclusive.
My friend is pretty sure about the 50% fund swap. All of this was “word of mouth” meaning no written docs on policy was provided.
I’ve asked my friend to get a written copy of the policy (if available).
This is my favorite example right now of a condo owner who got screwed buying at the top. MLS #2337655 is listed at $379,999, DOM is 62. Purchased 5/17/2005 for $465,000. It will be around a $100K loss. OUCH!
Any help on the following 2 listings would be greatly appreciated.
njmls 2639773
njmls 2640251
These 2 listings I belive sold within the last year, or so and are now back on the market.
2639773 Cape
Sold 11/1999 $249,900
Sold 02/2004 $398,500
List 10/2006 $475,000
PCH 10/2006 $459,000
PCH 11/2006 $449,000
Attorney Review 12/2006
———-
2640251 Colonial
Act 5/2005 $549,900
Sold 8/2005 $500,000
Act 8/2006 $524,902
PCH 9/2006 $518,000
Relist 10/2006 $484,500
PCH 12/2006 $479,900
Rich
NJrebear:
http://www.freeerisa.com
You might want to try to confirm historical changes in service providers by checking the Plan’s 5500 Schedule C. While it won’t answer your specific question on fund baiting & switching, it may at least confirm unusual broker changes/investment mgmt. changes/service provider changes for you. You can also check Schedule D. Look at the schedules for each year showing in the list. Compare ’03 to ’04 filings.
Hints:
It’s free. Go half-way down the page, click on ERISA Form 5500 Filings, then type in the employer name. Be sure you click on the profit sharing/deferred tax savings/401(k)plan.
There’s a list of codes, too.
Just peeked at the properties that closed in December for Summit, Chatham, Millburn, etc.
Some observations:
1) Very few properties closed.
2) The vast majority (as in 99.9%) closed under asking price.
3) These buyers are all bagholders.
Pat: you devil >;-)
re #27
I normally lurk but we looked at those two houses so I figured i would comment.
Regarding the cape – we were told that the couple were both corporate attorneys (no kids) and had decided to leave NYC for the ‘burbs. Well, they couldn’t take the commute and were moving back to NYC. It was charming inside, nicely laid out, but the kitchen was awful. The entire upstairs needed work (they were using one of the downstairs bedrooms as their master). Apparently they “started” to redo the upstairs but hadn’t finished. We were also told they were very “flexible” on the price and would consider any offer.
We walked out laughing.
Regarding the colonial – it looks nice in pictures, right? That’s because you can’t see the broken windows or the cracks in the back of the house. We also walked out laughing.
UnRealtor Says:
January 4th, 2007 at 1:19 pm
Meteor hits a home in NJ:
http://www.cnn.com/2007/US/01/04/fallen.object.ap/
I periodically monitor this board while not necessary commenting as frequently as I’ve done in the past. Every now and then, someone posts something that begs a response.
Isn’t if enough that bad press, the federal reserve and legions of resentful naysayers are attempting to destroy the housing market? I guess not, because now it’s neccesary to imply that homeowners and investors run the risk of meteors laying waste to their real estate holdings. Please people,this is starting to shamelessly border on the ridiculous.
I, for one, do not buy this gloom and doom stuff and if people would just go about their business and stop talking the housing market down, everything would be just fine.
Most here are wishing for a housing depression of sorts, which is extreme and you’ll be disappointed because that’s not going to occur.
thanks Pat :)
reinvestor101,
You’re kidding, right? Unrealtor may go to extremes at time but I don’t believe for a moment he was implying “homeowners and investors run the risk of meteors laying waste to their real estate holdings.”
Rich
Reinvestor101, it appears you’ve picked a bad week to stop sniffing glue?
It was an amusing story, semi-related to NJ and housing, nothing more.
TO post 32 – if you are reinvestor shouldn’t you be interested in people not buying – this way you ill have better choice of properties/cheaper. OR it is reverse phsycology – you knwo that by tellying people to buy you will scare more people from buying. OR you really need to sell your flopped flip?
“Unrealtor may go to extremes at times”
I resent that, as I try to go to extremes 100% of the time. Booya Bob is a tough act to follow, however.
NJREReport Readers:
Required listening. Bloomberg on the Economy yesterday. This file is 12:27 minutes long. Skip to minute 7:30 and listen to the last 5 minutes.
Key quote:
“….investment grade debt that could default at a 20% rate….”
http://media.bloomberg.com/bb/avfile/vknis63nQrkY.mp3
U.S. Jobs Could See Decline
http://www.forbes.com/2007/01/03/adp-earnings-update-markets-equity-cx_jl_0103markets16.html?partner=yahootix
Just some quotes:
An early look at the U.S. economy in December offered a chillier forecast than the relatively balmy weather, as Automatic Data Processing (nyse: ADP – news – people ) on Wednesday forecast a 40,000 decline in American jobs.
If the payroll processing firm is correct, it would be the first time in nearly four years that U.S. employment rolls have declined. The market consensus is for a 115,000 gain, following 132,000 jobs created in November.
The latest findings “suggest an abrupt slowing of employment, following three months during which, according to the ADP National Employment Report, gains in private nonfarm employment averaged 121,000 per month,” according to Joel Prakken, chairman of Macroeconomic Advisers, which collaborates on the report with ADP.
Looking ahead, Tilton said the most vulnerable employees are those working in the residential real estate market.
“You have seen huge declines in home sales,” he said. “Yet housing employment is just slightly off. So this sector needs to shed some employment.”
Yea realtors should beworried – what skills do they have outside of selling homes (of course a lot of people believe that they have no skill in the latter either)???
Devil? Waaa…?
Remember, I’m a (k) reform freak.
reinvestor101 Says:
“Isn’t if enough that bad press, the federal reserve and legions of resentful naysayers are attempting to destroy the housing market? ”
How silly. Most people are hoping that the housing market can be saved from years of reckless speculation and abuse of the American Dream by unethical mortgage brokers.
reinvestor: Talking the housing market down? Who talked it up> peiopel trying to destory the houisng market, including the Fed ? You know the Fed, you know the very same people that did so much to create the boom in the first place.
Just go about our business, and pay outrageou prices, because perhaps you, and definitely so may others did? Why would I want to do that?
Sorry i will not be part of the brain dead that describes so many people in our beloved state. Brain dead, brain washed,a nd ill or uninformed, no cannot do that.
Last year, the cold December weather was blamed for hurting retail sales because people had to spend more on energy costs.
Now, the warm weather is being blamed for lackluster sales.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070104/bs_nm/retail_sales_dc_7
I get that apparel retailers likely have a lot of cold weather inventory that they never unloaded but c’mon spin masters! Pick a story and stick to it!
I guess for a successful holiday retail season, the December weather needs to be just like Goldilocks porridge: not to hot, not to cold… just right.
… and people say there is a lot of spin on this blog! Pfffft!
A double-dose of the realtor “Code of Ethics”:
1) Hide negative information from consumers.
2) Blame price declines on buyers who are participating in the market.
When these “investors” were buying up properties to flip the past 5 years, they were wonderful, and it was OK to publish the data.
reinvestor101,
You’re kidding, right? Unrealtor may go to extremes at time but I don’t believe for a moment he was implying “homeowners and investors run the risk of meteors laying waste to their real estate holdings.”
Rich
Unrealtor has been observed here numerous times engaged in unsavory behavior, so yes, I most definitely believe that he would stop at nothing to dump on real estate and, yes, I think it was a deliberate attempt to dump on real estate investors and homewowners. That’s the main reason I’m no longer on speaking terms with that individual.
Interesting move by this group of Realtors in Danville.. Anyone else think this is a bit unethical?
I guess when you can’t spin the data positive anymore, the next step is to not provide that data anymore.
Danville Realtors to withhold data
Real estate agents in Danville have decided that, as far as the local housing market goes, no news is good news.
The local Realtors group says it no longer will submit sales data to the National Association of Realtors, after the area’s median home prices were ranked lowest in the country in a couple of recent quarterly reports.
Lagging 147 other metropolitan areas tracked by the national group has generated bad publicity for Danville, some of it from national news organizations and much of it unfair, said Debbie Borgwald, executive officer of the Danville Area Board of Realtors.
“We looked into it — all avenues of what we should do,” Borgwald said. “We want to let people know Danville is a great place to live.”
So, now, everybody wants to have Danville, IL data. Every “Free-Data-or-Die” freak is gonna be pulling the county sales data and posting every possible detail about Danville, IL on every blog.
This is a great PR move, actually.
Build it, and they will come.
Or was that Iowa?
Danville Realtors are kidding right? Say what you will about Unrealtor but he is right on point on this one. Why didn’t the NAR extract the data on flippers from the overall numbers to present a more balanced view of the market? Someone call Arnold Diaz for a new Shame On You segment.
I mean Shame Shame Shame (CBS got to keep the rights to S.O.Y. I suppose when Diaz jumped to Fox).
Question from a newbie:
How are you all able to tell days on market and drops in price for certain properties? As far as I can tell that capability does not exist on the mls website.
For example, post 26 above:
“This is my favorite example right now of a condo owner who got screwed buying at the top. MLS #2337655 is listed at $379,999, DOM is 62. Purchased 5/17/2005 for $465,000. It will be around a $100K loss. OUCH!”
Any help would be greatly appreciated, thanks
You are looking at the “consumer” MLS system, those folks have access to the “agent” MLS system. The agent system has access to significantly more data than is available to the general public.
jb
From PatricK.net – I find it very true….
First : So did you buy a house yet ?
Second : No man, still waiting. Prices seem to be coming down.
First : Oh common. They won’t go down much. Maybe 5 to 10%. At the most. And you know what, in the long run it doesn’t matter.
Second : Yeah, that’s right.
I completed my payment and had to leave, so I do not know how it ended.
Now, it’s not a completely wrong argument. But when it was made to me, I calmly pointed out that 5 to 10% of a typical BA home (800K to 1M range) is anywhere from 40K to 100K. This amount is nothing to sneeze at. Considering how long it takes to save this amount of money, IT DOES MATTER ! The discussion ended right there.
For “cheap” NJ home 5-10% is 15-30K….. Who is in here have extra 30K they are ready to give away??
Please let me know, and I will send you an account number to wire those 30K to “poor me Fund” ….
It’s just I have never heard stories of hard barganing over home prices…….
Remember you are taking your loan right now, not in 30 years when money supposedly will be devalued…
So why wouldnt people fight for every thousand of dollars off the price, When they are ready to rush over to mall to literally wresle for a mere 50$ off some cheap chineese goods on sale day?????
It is really beyond me….
I think this is very funny – I am going to start looking for home next week (this saturday we are going to my first meeting with my bank loan officer to see what would they pre-approve me for), and I can’t wait to see the face of my realtor when I will submit my first offer…… And the face of a seller as well.
Good thing: I am under no pressure to buy, and only time when I will be looking – will be weekends. So if nothing happens I will just consider free (gas price of course, so not so free) it entertainment.
Ohh yea I am cheap in countemporary american understanding of the word. (That is anybody who counts his money and and not willing to get in debt for entartainment – e.g. going on cruises or dayspa’s for women/big schreen TV’s for men and so on)!!!
reinvestor101 Says:
January 4th, 2007 at 2:51 pm
That’s the main reason I’m no longer on speaking terms with that individual.
RE: you sound like Belichek!
Go JETS. J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets, Jets.
“The Northeast saw a monthly decline of 2.8%, down 9.6% year over year.”
My question is where are all of these NE sales coming from?
The NYC-metro region sales are down roughly 25% YoY. Boston-metro is getting hammered. CT is down 20% on the whole. RI is similar. Are all of the sales happening in ME, NH and VT?
Al, weeknights on HGTV @ 8:30PM: “Buy Me.”
They follow around sellers, the open houses, and the offers coming in. Great to see greedy grubbers squirm.
http://www.hgtv.com/hgtv/shows_hbyme
Al, “So why wouldnt people fight for every thousand of dollars off the price, When they are ready to rush over to mall to literally wresle for a mere 50$ off some cheap chineese goods on sale day?????”
Historically, American’s are not as “bargaining minded” as some other cultures, which is THE one big enabler of closed markets such as the MLS system. It is “shameful” or “embarrassing” to traditional Americans to haggle/quibble over a price.
You have compared two opposite consumer behaviors: Bargaining/negotiation/teamwork, vs. individual effort/bargain price shopping (which has no negotiation involved.) Americans want to know the price, so they can compare items. Negotiating cultures want to know the item so they can negotiate the price.
“First : So did you buy a house yet ?
Second : No man, still waiting. Prices seem to be coming down.
First : Oh common. They won’t go down much. Maybe 5 to 10%. At the most. And you know what, in the long run it doesn’t matter.
Second : Yeah, that’s right.”
I’ve heard this so many times that I don’t even like to discuss RE anymore. Most homeowners I know are either my parents’ age, in which case they’ve owned for so long that they have no concept of how expensive housing has gotten, or, if they are younger, they were given money by their parents to buy, so the cost was sort of meaningless to them. Really not worth having the debate with either set
“I, for one, do not buy this gloom and doom stuff and if people would just go about their business and stop talking the housing market down, everything would be just fine.”
I thought the same in 2003-2005, when all the talk was the skyrocketing housing market. I guess if this blog stops talking about the fraud in lending, the bogus applications/appraisals, upside down owners, the credit bubble and the biggest bust that we have seen in our lifetime, then puff, housing will continue to appreciate?? In other words, the market did not implode on its own. It was the result of this blog?? Get comfortable, this is just starting. If you are uneasy now, you’ll really be squirming in 1-2 years.
sniffing glue? lol
With that said, what are the chances of an “over list offer” on a property which has been on the market 10+ months?
I think the listing agent is up to no good..
reinvestor, why do you even read a blog completely populated with bubbleheads? bubbleheads have no other opinion but bubble thoughts. if you try to introduce a non-bubble opinion, you’re an unbeliever and will be summarily attacked as an infidel. join the bubble bandwagon or be forever scorned.
RE101 knows he is always welcome here.
jb
Hey Unrealtor, any more info on those Chatham/Madison/Summit prices? How low below asking? I ask because there is a chance we’ll we looking in the area (certainly not for sure, but it’s out there, as I think I have mentioned before). I want to get a better handle on prices, since I’m not familiar with NJ outside of Hudson.
“if you try to introduce a non-bubble opinion, you’re an unbeliever and will be summarily attacked as an infidel. join the bubble bandwagon or be forever scorned.”
Um, kind of the way that people who bought houses these past few years treated those who didn’t? Hmmm, I KNEW it sounded familiar.
Richard,
bubbleheads have no other opinion but bubble thoughts.
Like your bubbleicous agreements with Booyaa Bob?
———-
Anonymous Says:
June 23rd, 2006 at 3:28 pm
The new motto from realtors: “MOTIVATED SELLERS, PRESENT ALL OFFERS.”
What a SHAM!
This is after they Piled on a 5-10% price increasde from PEAK 2005 House prices!
Tell’em NOOOTTING!
Starving realtors will be feuding with grubbing sellers.
Watch
BOOOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAA
Bob
Richard Says:
June 23rd, 2006 at 3:49 pm
“This is after they Piled on a 5-10% price increasde from PEAK 2005 House prices!
bob you’re absolutely right. i’m seeing this all over and it’s laughable. a few agents have been telling me they can’t even get anyone to look at the houses because the prices are so laughable when in reality the sellers will accept far less than original ask. sellers are stupid. they think i’ll ask real high so i can negotiate down the buyer will think they’re getting a great deal off list. doesn’t work on ‘retail price’ clothing it won’t work here + the comps show otherwise.
——-
So please, finally tell me this time what fundamentals have changed that you have made a complete 180 degree change in your view of the housing market.
why do you even read a blog completely populated with bubbleheads? bubbleheads have no other opinion but bubble thoughts.
And if you do feel this way why do you continue to read?
Rich
Crap
Richard:Perhaps you can present your non-bubble theory in a clear, concise, rational, and defined manner.
You see that is the problem with the non-bubble believers, you offer no clear, concise and rational opinion as to why there is no bubble.
You see that is why JB started this blog, so that people that shared his views had a place to meet and for the most part ratioanlly talk about this bubble and all of its ramifacations.
We were scorned if you will by the rah-rah cheer leading crowd who stated that there is no bubble, and hence we sought refuge on this site.
Again there is not one person I have spoken to be it family, friend or acquataince, who has yet to offer a clear, concise and rational explanation as to why there is no bubble.
Although i must say, there was no tal of real estate while celerating the just ended holidays
i see bubble people
in your dreams?
no, on NJ real estate report blog
bubble people in balloons, spacesuits?
no, walking around like regular people. they only see each other. they only see what they want to see. they don’t know they’re bubble people.
Rich in NNJ, that June quote isn’t mine. i would never agree with booyah bonehead. i’ve been spoofed a # of times. must be the name. the latter quote is mine though. i read because you people are like a comedy show for free.
oh and by the way, don’t you have anything better to do than search for 9 month old posts? lol.
Richard-
Explain to The Kid what are “Bubble People”?
The Kid
>>RE101 knows he is always welcome here.
sorry james, your attempt at a balanced viewpoint blog went out the window a long time ago when the extreme bubbleheads hijacked your blog. too late to turn the ship now.
A bit of Humour:
My thoughts on housing in the past 6 years:
1999 – graduated with B.A.
Hmm Can Not afford hosing in my area….
Need nbetter degree to get higher salary…
1999 entering grad school (5 years, actually took 5.5)…
Housing is reasonable, with my salary after grad school I will be able to afford to buy a small home.
2000 – houses are a bit higher, I guess I will be able to buy in not very good neighbourhood.
2001 – May be I should have gotten a job and bought a house in 1999 (yea it would have been tight but I’d be rich by now!!! good hindsite!!!), instead of going to grad school
2002 – W.T.F.???
2003 – My salary after graduation will not be enough to buy a condo with a fixed loan (ok I might be able to afford a one bedroom condo/converted apartment), hmm, very interesting…
2004 – I give up,
I will never buy home – hey at least my weekends are free to enjoy life and I do not have to to yard work… I wonder what my landlord is paying to those illegal mexicans moving the yard….
2005 – W.T.F. Again????
How does everybody else can buy those homes at prices like this?? should I just quit grad school now before it is too late and go work at starbucks – thay must have being lying about starbucks salary because it is definitelly not people with my advanced degree buying thouse homes… MY future profession salary is very well known to me…
2006 – Hmm I got a job…… Found NNJBUBBLEBLOG….
Renting an apartment at about 1/3 of mortage payment for comparable square footage home with landlord paying heat, water and gas, my 401K earning 9% in 6 month. Home prices are out of my reach by about 40%….
putting some money in short time cd’s and mitual fund’s…
2007 ……….Yesterday, landlord offfered me a one month free if I sign 14 months extension on the lease. 14 months is a long time though…. I am tempted…. but what if housing prices will fall 20% summer time?? what if 40%??? the way it is going right now it may be fast with all the ARM’s resets….
2008 ….?????
Pat, # 56 – good point about negotiations.
Is it possible that the reverse is just as true.
ie., immigrants are more likely to speculate and bid a higher price on a product if they see a ‘future’ value.
Could that explain why RE in the mid-west, with low immigration, has seen less of a bubble?
I wonder if there’s any study on how much of the speculative buying has been by immigrants in the last 5 yrs – which also marks a high rise in immigration into NJ.
Ricahrd: Again ia sk in all seriousness for an explanationa s to why there is no bubble? Yet you appear to be running around the issue,a nd talking of space suits and what not.
>>but what if housing prices will fall 20% summer time?? what if 40%??? the way it is going right now it may be fast with all the ARM’s resets….
LOL! that was funny Al.
If the blog doesnt offer the level of balanced opinion and conversation that pleases you why would you visit much less publish?
Wouldnt it be like visiting a cat blog and complain that there isnt enough chatter about dogs? Then take it a step further and insult the host of the blog for not controling the crowds thoughts enough.
Any opinions on this pre-construction price?
MLS ID 2639946. Your suggestions are highly appreciated.
Ricahrd Regarding your last LOL 20% decline? Why not, why is that funny, or I guess in your mind impossible, but at the same time perfectly normal for prices to have increased 20 to 25% a year for 3 or 4 years?
You see this is one of the questions I ask non-bubble people, and they cannot answer it. If I persit in my questioning, then they attack me loser rneter and all the rest of it.
“too late to turn the ship now.”
Richard,
If you were referring to the RE/subprime market, I would agree.
I would not refer to myself as an “extreme bubblehead”. More like a long term bull turned very bearish when the market became so out of synch with its own fundamentals. The market told me what to do, I just listened and acted. I’m still waiting for one, just one, compelling reason to buy at this time.
that June quote isn’t mine.
Yea, it is.
Why do you never want to answer this question?
What fundamentals have changed that you have made a complete 180 degree change in your view of the housing market?
oh and by the way, don’t you have anything better to do than search for 9 month old posts?
Because I remembered your previous viewpoints and wanted to be sure I quited you correctly.
And I enjoy vexing you.
Rich
Rich In NNJ, #64
Just saw this one. Is this Richard, who has heard of 5 Wall Streeters buying in Westfield???
IAN, seems to me that there are several nice homes in the 499 price range in ParTroy that are up-to-date and will have much lower taxes than what you would likely pay in a newcon home. Also, its on a narrow piece of land. There are other homes on .3 to .6 acres for same price, if having a yard means anything to you.
If you are the builder fishing for feedback, good luck and don’t forget to add the granite countertops.
Just got the 3rd email marketing message of the day from a realtor using the “now is the perfect time to buy because prices have slowed” line.
Isn’t that like someone advising I buy a stock that just had a major runnup but now has slim prospects of providing a return anywhere near the previous five years?
Oh right, stocks and housing, not a good comparison.
Prices have slowed can only be read as “worst case scenario,prices aren’t gonna be much more next year vs. this year so you might as well TAKE YOUR TIME in making a purchase decision”. Who writes this drivel some realtors use?
* Sellers will negotiate
* Rates are still low
… fine
but “prices are have slowed”?
Seneca: Thanks .. I am not a builder. I am trying to have a roof above my head and my family. I am afraid what if I go for that house but within 6 months the price comes down. Is their any chance to negotiate with that builder?
BC Bob, I think there’s no point in anyone trying to carry on a convo with Richard. It’s been long established that he was a bubble believer, bought a house, and suddenly changed his mind. Now he comes on here just to talk about spacesuits and how everyone else is wrong, without ever offering a reason as to why he’s right (oh, except for that anecdote about his few pals in Westfield).
Yes, but I have found that in general, builders are even more offended when you don’t think their magnificent plans are worth their asking price for “brand new construction”. Especially when the builder is a small mom&pop type.
What do you think of MLS 2326973 or 2327446. You could probably negotiate them down somewhat and use the extra cash to upgrade elements of the home to your liking.
Or, just wait till after Spring, by then sellers will have a better idea of whether or not buyers will come out of the woodwork to pay their asking prices. I think you have a better than 50/50 chance that prices will go lower.
Is MLS# 2639946 the same as MLS# 2334083 and MLS# 2329397? I’m guessing the $325k listing is for the property/plans?
Ian,
The builder purchased that property for just about $200,000. I’d suggest talking with the builder, if he is selling the land as well as a pre-con at the same time, he might not think the project is viable. You could have a bit of leverage, or at least might be able to find some middle ground between him cutting the margin and perhaps cutting costs on the build.
jb
“BC Bob, I think there’s no point in anyone trying to carry on a convo with Richard.”
NJGal,
That can’t be the same person, not in 6 months time. You can’t agree with BOOOYAAAA and then crticize this site shortly after. This is John Kerry at his best. He would have the guts to step up and state, yes it’s me, I changed my tune as the result of,x,y and z. Nobody could be so shallow/insecure to state that was not his post. I don’t believe Richard would do that. Despite the fact that I disagree with him regarding the RE market,he seems to be a man of integrity.
Both looks good but what I think is, instead of paying for old houses, why not pay for the new one? Less headache and probably less maintenance…
Reechard:
Infidel! I scorn you. I am amassing my cross border/ethnicity/religious forces from Poland, Israel and Albania to come and wage jihad, and we make a helluva kielbasa and kugel to boot ;-)
reinvestor, why do you even read a blog completely populated with bubbleheads? bubbleheads have no other opinion but bubble thoughts. if you try to introduce a non-bubble opinion, you’re an unbeliever and will be summarily attacked as an infidel. join the bubble bandwagon or be forever scorned.
Richard, I sometimes wonder that myself and the scornful comments that are directed towards me are at times discouraging. On the other hand, there does need to be some balance here and yes, I know it gets to be a dirty job having to deal with people like Unrealtor, Booya Bob, NJGal, Pat, RichinNNJ and some of the newcomers here, but someone has to do it. These guys won’t be satisfied until the real estate market lays in ruins with their fellow citizens devastated. Of course, they’ll ultimately be disappointed but one has to wonder why they want to see their fellow Americans suffering. I won’t get into what I really think about this at this point.
I do think that Chicago Finance and James are exceptions, but everyone else can be painted with the broad brush.
I’ve found that there’s little use in presenting any opposing argument. They’ll just shout you down and burn you at the stake.
……and for good measure
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oibk9Zk1_yI
what’s that RE? :)
Keep an eye on this kind of stuff…..\
Apartment Vacancies Rise to 5.9%
By ALEX FRANGOS
January 4, 2007 4:38 p.m.
The U.S. apartment market ended 2006 with a surprisingly large increase in the number of empty apartments, due to a combination of rising rents, seasonal factors and increased supply from failed condominium projects converted to rentals.
The average vacancy rate for the 79 largest U.S. markets rose to 5.9% in the fourth quarter, up from 5.5% in the third quarter, and 5.7% from the year earlier. The increase was the fastest quarterly jump since the first quarter of 2003, according to Reis Inc., a New York research firm.
“It’s a bigger increase in vacancy than we expected,” said Sam Chandan, chief economist at Reis. Rental buildings that were converted to condos reverted to rental units in a slowing housing market, most notably in Florida. Completion of new apartments also increased supply, bumping up vacancy rates, he added.
Meantime, landlords continued to increase rents at a strong clip as people fled to apartments from a pricey and uncertain for-sale market. Rents increased 0.9% in the quarter and 4.4% from the year earlier. The average apartment rent nationally, including concessions landlords give such as a month’s free rent, was $930, versus $922 in the third quarter and $891 in the fourth quarter of 2005.
The size of the vacancy increase was a “surprise,” agreed Louis Taylor, senior analyst at Deutsche Bank Securities. But he said he isn’t “overly concerned,” citing the seasonal effect of the generally slow fourth quarter and the continued rent growth. The end of the year is often the slowest for apartments, with renters reluctant to move over the holidays. “If this was after the second or third quarters, which are your seasonally strong quarters, then I’d be a lot more worried.”
Another explanation for the vacancy bump is rising rents. “Owners are pushing the rent increases as hard as they can, which generally tends to increase vacancy some,” said Richard Campo, chief executive of Camden Property Trust, a Houston-based publicly traded real-estate investment trust that owns 70,000 apartments. The fast run-up in rents “pushes people out of the market or forces them to double up. A one-bedroom guy can’t afford a one-bedroom so he doubles up with a friend in a two bedroom.”
Only 18 out of the 79 markets reported decreased vacancy rates, including New York, down 0.2 percentage point to 2.3%; Washington D.C., down 0.1 percentage point to 3.8%; and Minneapolis, down 0.2 percentage point to 4.9%.
IAN – new does not always mean maintenance free. Some things should be maintenance free, I mean new roof, new A/C units, etc. Let me share an anecdote with you though.
My brother has a small cape cod. There was another tiny house on the lot next door to his, corner lot, lots of property. Builder bought the lot, knocked down the house, built a McMansion. We have taken to calling my brothers nice little home the maids quarters. But I digress. Last year there was a massive rainstorm, streets were flooding. New house basement flooded, other homes in the area did not.
I have also seen new homes that have cracks in walls and such because as the house settles, molding and paint, well, they crack. My brother took some solace in that fact that while his basement stayed dry, the builder showed up at the neighbors house about 4 months after closing to pump the basement out and fix it.
I like new too, but as many people have advised me, they don’t make ’em like they used to.
Now I will go back to being “painted with a broad brush”.
Seneca:
Thanks for your suggestion and the anecdote. What would be the fair price for the MLS ID 2326973 or 2327446? I am just trying to get an idea before I really get on to look for houses
This site is great with lot of information..
Seneca:
Thanks for your suggestion and the anecdote. What would be the fair price for the MLS ID 2326973 or 2327446? I am just trying to get an idea before I really get on to look for houses
This site is great with lot of information..
JB/Senaca
What would be the fair price for the MLS ID 2326973 or 2327446? I am just trying to get an idea before I really get on to look for houses
This site is great with lot of information..
Reinvestor101, why don’t you support affordable home prices for your fellow Americans? Should people really have to spend 5 to 10 times their income to put a roof over their head? To you that’s “normal” or “desirable”?
“We have taken to calling my brothers nice little home the maids quarters.”
LOL, that’s good.
Lets see lereah has called the bottom uh…how many times?
reinvestor101 Says:
January 4th, 2007 at 6:07 pm
Are You done whining? Again?
Danville Realtors to withhold data
The AG of the state should sue this organization.
“These guys won’t be satisfied until the real estate market lays in ruins with their fellow citizens devastated”
#90,
That’s not true. I’m only looking for 30-40% off 2005 highs by 2010. What can you say, bull markets turn idiots into astute investors. Bear markets will ravage these geniuses. Remember, I’m not referring to those who have bought prior to this mania and those who have bought recently, at a big discount to 2005 and put down $.
Funny you should refer to paint/brush. This whole charade was painted by the flippers, I/O’s, speculation and mass hysteria. The propellent that ignited this market to unsustainable gains will be the cause of its demise. Brush it any way you want, it’s certaintly not a Rembrandt.
Very discouraged. Drove by a house today in Cresskill which really caught my eye on Palisade ave or street. Called the realtor and made an appt to see it. Price is $599 on quite a beautiful block. Needed work but hubby is very handy. Realtor calls back and tells me that they have a contract on it already. People are buying not matter what we think…and there are some reasonable houses out there as well.
#94
I buy as little new as possible because defects are present in many new products. Homes, cars, I buy floor models of products heavily discounted. (this is why I’m on the blog of people hoping to buy in a bad market)
For real estate, a house that has been standing for 40+ years will pretty much show all it’s problems, unless they have been covered by paneling, false ceilings, vinyl siding, etc.
Also, there are specific periods in the past 50 years to avoid in certain markets – with known poor construction – ie: 70’s 80’s.
Not only in a new house going to have new house problems, but a home to be built is a total risk as not only will it settle, have problems due to quality of construction, but the site may be unproven for proper drainage. THe new house you spoke about probably flooded due to the movment of the earth surrounding it.
A solid, unimproved building, with all problems visible is best – especially as most buyers will run away leaving a lower price for me. Take the savings and make improvements the way you want. And have a solid home.
We should start a new section called “Underwater” listing homes that sold or are asking for below the prices paid in previous years. I would love to do it, but I don’t have MLS access.
AdAgencyWoman,
I understand your frustration as I have had that happen as well. It shows when something is priced correctly, it will sell.
But personal experience doesn’t mean the entire market has picked up.
By the way, that house went under attorney review on Dec. 12 adn under contract on Jan. 1.
Best of luck,
Rich
Ian,
Just because a home is new doesn’t mean that the quality is better or even that the builder was competent.
It’s very easy to build a shoddy and low-quality new home. Sure it’s new, but that’s about all it has going for it, and that doesn’t go too far.
The quality I’ve seen on some new construction has been astoundingly poor. So bad, in fact, that the mere fact that these folks call themselves builders is an insult to the craft.
jb
Rich
#107
How can I find this house on the internet? Want to show my husband why I am so long faced this evening.
reinvestor, why do you even read a blog completely populated with bubbleheads?
>>
Unlike some chameleons here, REinvestor101 doesn’t change his prognosis every other day. I guess it is time for the choir to preach to itself.
How can I find this house on the internet? Want to show my husband why I am so long faced this evening.
Sorry, you need access the agents MLS.
Rich
AdAgencyWoman
Each time I have been in the market to buy, I have lost at least 2 homes that were “perfect”.
Each time, the final house we found was better suited to our needs, and better value (may not be lower priced). We couldn’t be happier losing the first one.
My advice is: move forward, take the opportunity to find another better (and probably very different) home, and enjoy the process – especially in a BUYERS MARKET!!!!.
DO NOT buy the next home that comes up to make up for the loss – relax, have a few drinks and enjoy the search. You’ll find the perfect home for you if you have patience.
Thanks for the advice. I really appreciate the support.
AdAgencyWoman,
Don’t know why I’ve been typing like Tarzan…
Anyway, if you want info on another house just post the MLS number. Hopefully I’ll be around and can look up the history for you.
Bubblewatcher,
I concur and excellent advice.
Rich
“…to put the shady real estate companies out of business for good.”
http://www.wkyc.com/news/rss_article.aspx?ref=RSS&storyid=61323
Get’em cowboys.
http://www.weathernet5.com/money/10669154/detail.html?rss=nn5wx&psp=news
AdAgencyWoman (#104)-
Looks like you came upon a house in the secondary part of the RE market: the one populated by realistic sellers. So much time and attention is paid to the dead flippers, grubbers and equity-starved that no one has noticed the small subset of sellers who are getting the message.
You can expect that more sellers will realize over the next few weeks that their best opportunity lies in positioning at levels below their dead competitors and cashing out the maximum amount possible before another surge of inventory hits this Spring. We may get a “false bottom’ or BC Bob’s “dead cat bounce” before prices head lower for the balance of ’07, but if you’re one of the smart ones that snags a good buy now, who cares? The ill-conceived notion of this board’s Piltdown contingent (Booyah Bob and UnRealtor) that the market has- or will- grind to a complete standstill has no basis in economic fact. There are just too many competing interests and motivations to get the buy or sell side moving in lockstep.
Expect to see another factor coming into play over the next few weeks: namely, experienced agents walking away from bad selling propositions. Frankly, the top agents started this about a year ago, but we’re just now getting enough traction to influence the market. Anecdotally, my agents and I “fired” a handful of listings at the end of last year, and we’ve let our current sellers understand what must be done to achieve a good sale by the end of Q1/07. Every home we get “lined up” with the market starts the phone ringing and jumps the number of pageviews on the net, so I know we’re on the right track here.
BTW, I just tallied our twp’s December ’06 sales today. 17 sales, average of 189 days on market, homes sold at an average of 89% of original asking price. No surprise, the homes that got 94%+ of original asking were priced well and were on the market less than 60 days.
BC Bob (#18)-
Looks like a big-time sector rotation is underway right now. Money pouring out of oil, materials and HB’s into tech.
Is this what you’re seeing?
UnRealtor Says:
January 4th, 2007 at 7:32 pm
Reinvestor101, why don’t you support affordable home prices for your fellow Americans? Should people really have to spend 5 to 10 times their income to put a roof over their head? To you that’s “normal” or “desirable”?
Please, don’t try to flip the script on me and try to act like I’m being unamerican here. You guys have sat up here and done everything you could to hurt and wish ill will upon those fortunate enough to buy a home. Buying a home does not require that one spend 5 to 10 times his income. You act like people don’t have options.
Let me put it this way. Assume that you’re in a area where only the new Lexus 460L ( very nice car BTW) is selling for $ 81,000. You really can’t afford it, but you buy it anyway rather than find a Corolla that you can really afford at $ 15,000. Who’s to blame for that? You or the Lexus dealer?
There’s a lot of bitching and moaning about New Jersey mainly because certain people can’t afford it, yet they make themselves afford it anyway or resent someone else you could afford it. In the latter instance, you marry your resentment with hatred of those who bought and take the position that you wish to see them destroyed financially.
New Jersey is now an enclave of Manhattan. That will not change anytime soon. The income demographic is much higher and impacted the demand and selling prices of properties in Northern NJ. You can get mad and hate the newcomers or move. It’s just that simple.
I resent the constant drumbeat of hate and resentment emanating from certain individuals against their fellow Americans whose sole “offense” was having the “temerity” to buy or invest in real estate in New Jersey. You need to stop it.
ReInvestor-
Don’t waste your time (or your bile!). You are addressing a person whose brain is an ossified pellet.
Clotpoll Says:
January 4th, 2007 at 11:24 pm
ReInvestor-
Don’t waste your time (or your bile!). You are addressing a person whose brain is an ossified pellet.
LOL. Unrealtor is the poster child for those who hate and resent homeowners.
If home prices have to grow at least inflation pace then why shouldn’t oil prices grow at the same rate?
njrebear Says:
January 4th, 2007 at 11:53 pm
If home prices have to grow at least inflation pace then why shouldn’t oil prices grow at the same rate?
Who said that’s the rule? The rate of inflation would only impact a portion of the growth rate of either. Moreover, oil prices are a function of more and different things than those factors affecting home prices (i.e. production volume, currency exchange rates, demand from emergent economies and etc.)
Can someone with access to MLS system tell me what’s been happening to mls listing # 709428
It was off the realtor site for a month in december and has suddenly reappeared.
Production volume in terms of oil is the amount of oil that is being pumped from a finite resource.
In RE, production volumes can be equated to the rate of building on land which is a finite resource.
Currency exchange rates – Oil is traded in US$.
-They are not making any more land.
-No more oil reserves are being made. (At least no where near consumption rate).
-We need a home to stay.
-We need oil to live.
Oil shares the same fundamental characteristics of land. If that’s the case, why shouldn’t oil grow at the same rate as real estate?
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/01/04/AR2007010401794.html
Cold Sales Give Renters a Break
Vacancies, Prices Affected as Owners Lease What They Can’t Unload.
As home sellers grew more frustrated with the slow local real estate market in recent months, they abandoned their for-sale signs and put their homes up for rent. That has increased choices and cooled prices for tenants in one of the tightest and most expensive parts of the country.
“This is the first sign that the cooling housing market is having an impact on the rental market,” said Gregory H. Leisch, chief executive of Delta Associates …
As competition for tenants intensified, apartment rents did not rise as sharply in the past three months of 2006 as they had earlier in the year, the report said.
from CR.
2.6% of total housing is either for sale or rent.
This is from the Housing Panic blog. I’ve seen discussions here on how the Fed is no longer publishing the M3 number. I have some vague notion that M3 is a measure of the money supply. I’m inferring from the uptrend that the amount of money in circulation has increased – is that right? Is this inflationary, as I’m assuming?
Nobody seems to care yet everyone should… US (no longer published) M3 money supply going parabolic (goodbye dollar)
Gotta love the Fed trying to hide M3. Man, they must think we’re fricking stupid.
Oh, wait, we ARE fricking stupid… Except for the economists and websites that reconstruct it and people like HPers who still give a rat’s ass..
We did some sleuthing and data extraction and put M3 back together from various weekly Federal Reserve reports that are still available.
The formula we’re using has five 9s correlation to the original data back to 1980.
There is only one missing element that is apparently no longer available (Eurodollars) and an adjustment has been applied to generate it. Its only about 3% of total M3 so should not have a material effect on the total.
Here is our article on M3b, which details our work and notes the sources for the data. Note that as of Nov. 10, 2006 the Eurodollar estimation formula has changed – see the article for details. John Williams reconstruction of M3 is here.
posted by keith at 7:12 PM | 10 comments
PS, there’s a chart that didn’t cut and paste that can be seen at the HP blog.
scribe,
Here ya go. This should work.
Oops, that didn’t work. Click here.
REINVESTOR,
I have deep respect and admiration for those investors who purchased a home in the past five years and have reaped the rewards of growth in the market. I harbor no ill will towards anyone whose life circumstances put them in a home in 2001 that they could no longer afford given todays market prices.
Please take a moment though to consider the situation some of us might be in today. Let me paint a picture for you. Bob Smith is admitedly thrifty with his money. In 2000, the median multiple in the US was around 3.7. In NJ, that meant that Bob’s yearly salary of say $85k could easily put him in a home that was priced at $315k. In Union County where he would look to buy, $315k in 2000 bought you a wonderful 4BR split on a .3-.5 acre piece of property in the “better” part of town in most places.
But in 2000, Bob had not yet “settled down” and was renting a place until he found Mrs.Right. To Bob, a home was a place to live and raise a family and he wanted to make the largest buying decision of his life with his partner there by his side.
Fast forward 5 years later. Bob met Mrs. Right in 2004 and married her in 2005. They decide to look for a house. By this time, Bob’s $85k salary grew at 5% per year and he was now earning $108k per year. Thus he could afford a $401k house at 3.7 times his income. (Let’s assume Bob wants the Mrs. to be able to stay at home with the eventual kids they hope for, thus, he doesn’t factor in any income from her in his calcs.)
In the 2005 market, $401k in those same Union County communities will net Bob a Cape Cod with outdated everything on a .14 acre piece of property located on a main road.
Do you see how that might be a little depressing for Bob?
The median multiple in the US was 7.2 by 2005. Bob now has to spend at least $778 to net himself a comparable house to the one he dreamed of in 2000. Bob has considered moving to Delaware or some other more affordable part of the country, but he cares for his eldery father and has to regularly drive him to his doctors appointments. He is locked into staying in NJ for family reasons.
REINV, do you have any empathy for Bob here? Bob heeds your advice and doesn’t want to buy the Lexus when he can only afford the Corolla but it feels a little odd to him that even though he earns more money now, his buying power has dwindled away to not much. Bob doesn’t want your sympathy, but since we live in a society, it might be nice if you could at least empathize with his situation, which maybe you do?
njrebear (#125)-
Did you smoke a wiki and come up with this brilliant analogy? Was it Thai stick, or just some good Colombian?
Your post does illuminate one trait that you and all your militant permabear friends share: a basic misunderstanding of RE as a separate, unique asset class that behaves by its own set of rules. It would be so easy- and your analogies would be so appropriate- if only RE were a commodity like oil. Then, the trade in RE wouldn’t be emotion-driven; wouldn’t require agents as value-added participants; could be done electronically; and, the price of any home could be determined by a Zillow algorithm.
Unfortunately, all this will happen when pigs fly. Depreciable consumer goods and commodities have nothing to do with RE.
I resent the constant drumbeat of hate and resentment emanating from certain individuals against their fellow Americans whose sole “offense” was having the “temerity” to buy or invest in real estate in New Jersey. You need to stop it.
I do not believe there is a lot of Hate on this blog. Yea people saying houses are overpriced, yea I do not understand how it may sustain itself…. Booyaahh bob may seems a bit angry with “Greedy grubbers” thats about it…
For some reason people who are trying to cheer for real estate up, consider anybody who is saying home priced will fall 10% as a person who hates sellers, realtors and all homeowners!!! well thats just silly.
I do not se how you can arrive to strong words like hate from this sentense.
what I do see is that you have no arguments and facts to support your opinion so you are switching to a different label – o instead of calling people who refuse to buy at ridiculous prices loosers with 3K net worth you call them Haters. Sorry but that is not working.
On the bright side for all of us:
Greatly increasing Troll’s activity on htis blog and many others mean that realtors and flippers/investors/neg-armers are getting REALLY DESPERATE.
They are very scared that there will not be any spring pick up and why would there be – trolls here are saying themselves that prices did not drop so far – so affordability is still vewry low.
Ohh yea, I am sorry for calling pro-real estate people who come out with no argument a troll. I think this is a hatefull as this web site gets. However to be fair you can come up with the sticky nickname fo real estate bears (pessimists) if it will stick we will use it. For now it is trolls and bears.
Some people tried renter in the last 4 years but i think last year in slowly became analogous to smart.
#132 clotpol]
The only difference is i’m smoking the oil brand and you the RE brand.
” Depreciable consumer goods and commodities have nothing to do with RE. ”
If oil is a depreciable commodity then why the hell are governments across the globe trying to maintain a huge reserve???
You other arguments are purely emotional and have no substantial basis. I certainly don’t want to get into why we have to pay 6% for ‘nothing’. It looks like you are one of the few who believes in Zillow ‘zestimates’.
My question still remains why shouldn’t oil grow at the same rate as RE?
My question still remains why shouldn’t oil grow at the same rate as RE?
Because oil is a very liquid commodity:) so it is pretty much immune to formation of bubbles!!!
Sorry, I could not resist:)
add on 134
As a matter of fact, oil should grow at a much faster rate than RE because the exhaustion rate of this resource is fairly predictable and the timeline is much closer than RE.
Secondly oil is a global market ( like how the RE bulls identify NY ) and therefore prices should never come down since demand always keeps going up with population.
thanks Al :)
All this arguing back and forth is not at all constructive. All it tells us is that real estate is an emotional topic, and many of us will vehemently support our viewpoint, right or wrong.
jb
“These guys won’t be satisfied until the real estate market lays in ruins with their fellow citizens devastated. ”
I take offense ReInvestor. Point me to just one of my posts where I said any such thing. It’s the opposite of what I want – I have boomer parents who have to sell their house down the line in a few years, one they bought for 60K that I would LOVE, for their sake, that they be able to sell for the 1.6 million it was valued for at the height of the market.
However, despite all the facts presented, you can’t seem to comprehend that for all involved, it would be better for my parents that the value of their house dropped to a million dollars. They’d still make a profit, and the amount they’d have to spend on the next place would be significantly less, allowing them to keep some profit for their retirement. In fact, I would argue that in advocating for prices that continue to be completely disconnected from the fundamentals, YOU are the one hoping for the downfall of your fellow citizens, who right now are drowning in debt that many cannot afford thanks to easy credit and the cost of housing. But I guess since it doesn’t affect you, you don’t care. Class act you are.
James Bednar Says:
January 5th, 2007 at 7:59 am
All this arguing back and forth is not at all constructive. All it tells us is that real estate is an emotional topic, and many of us will vehemently support our viewpoint, right or wrong.
jb
GREAT – now we have to rely on grim as the voice of reason. I think we are all in serious trouble!
Got to factor in everything going down in that viewpoint NJGal. Groceries,commuting costs ect are also beyond expensive here..Its sad to say the least that its our own doing.. Advances in technology have caused us to be a society of ease. This is an old discussion.. But really who needs cable and paying for Radio?
Realtor™ Clotpoll writes:
“You are addressing a person whose brain is an ossified pellet.”
Nice to see all that Realtor™ Clotpoll can bring to the discussion is insults and the defense of other unethical realtor activities.
But what can one expect from an NAR apologist.
ReInvestor101 writes:
“Unrealtor is the poster child for those who hate and resent homeowners.”
It’s all business ReInvestor, but I do love you.
I hope we meet at the closing table when I swoop in and pick up one of your “investment” properties for pennies on the dollar.
Don’t take it personally, though, it’s just business.
“Got to factor in everything going down in that viewpoint NJGal. Groceries,commuting costs ect are also beyond expensive here..Its sad to say the least that its our own doing.”
Yes, that’s true. But it wouldn’t be such a bad thing. Although I don’t think I could live without my Sirius.
My post #127 and syncmaster’s #130 –
(and thanks sync, for posting the chart) …
Can someone who knows M3 tell me whether that chart means what I think it means – that the Fed is increasing the amount of money in the money supply to the point of being inflationary?
Is the Fed basically printing money at this stage?
Chi? BCBob?
Enckave of Manhattan, close to NYC, people do not understand real estat as asn asset, the same tired old nonsense form the resident bulls on this blog, and yet not one can offer a reasonable, concise, and rational explanation as to why housing rpices have doubled or tripled in less than 5 years.
And all the Bulls conveniently ignore the massive problems that our beloved state is facing, with the silly notion that this will nto affect real estate prices.
UnRealtor (#142)-
Nice to see you’ve moved back to your Plan B: misquote Clotpoll. You’ve got all the moves of a three-toed sloth.
I’m on record here as being no fellow traveler with NAR. Their interests are rarely aligned with my interests as an agent. About the only thing I’m really tight with them on is keeping banks out of the RE biz. You think agents are bad now? What if the day comes when you have to buy a home thru an unlicensed, untrained bank teller (and, no, I’m not hallucinating)?
NJREbear-
Your oil/RE analogy is so utterly weird, I can’t even get my mind around it enough to respond.