Has housing bottomed?

Posted on February 19, 2007 by grim

From Yahoo Finance:

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26 Responses to Has housing bottomed?

  1. lou says:
    February 19, 2007 at 8:51 am

    never go with the consensus,look what happened to the stock market in 2000 everyone was a bull ! the market has bottomed and the slow footed will lose out on prime properties .

  2. gary says:
    February 19, 2007 at 8:54 am

    Bottomed from what? (Sarcasm off) :)

  3. BC Bob says:
    February 19, 2007 at 9:50 am

    Lou [1],

    Then we will be witnessing the first bubble in history that did not result in a bust. Can you elaborate on your rationalization?? Please disregard proximity to NY and Wall Street.

  4. RentinginNJ says:
    February 19, 2007 at 10:06 am

    First of all, the above poll is not scientific and is subject to self-selection bias. I would argue that consensus opinion, if the general public still believes the NAR, is that we are somewhere near the bottom.

    I’d also like an answer to BC’s question. Every bubble in history, dating back to the Dutch tulip bubble in 1636, has crashed. Prices have reverted to their long term trend, often overcorrecting.

    What makes this one different?

  5. Judicious1 says:
    February 19, 2007 at 11:47 am

    IMO, the idea of a “bottom” shouldn’t even be pondered until long after the $1.5T or so in ARM resets have taken place. 2007 is the “Year of Pain” for housing, so relax…if you can.

  6. AntiTrump says:
    February 19, 2007 at 1:04 pm

    #1 lou Says:

    Go ahead and catch the falling knife !

  7. Sally says:
    February 19, 2007 at 2:22 pm

    Glad to see Lou understands what looks like a short-term blip in an unstoppable long-term demographic up trend has arrived .

  8. UnRealtor says:
    February 19, 2007 at 3:59 pm

    Still a large number of dummies jumping in around the million dollar mark. I just shake my head in disbelief.

    Anyone who buys a “million dollar house” that was $500K 4 or 5 years ago needs serious help.

    I talk to people every day who think prices may drop 10%, so buying now isn’t a big deal, perhaps only a 10% premium.

    The Star Ledger (which has become nothing but an NAR advertisement), and other media outlets, never ask tough questions of realtors and NAR shills, and hence the public is perpetually misinformed.

    And all sales data is locked up and controlled by the NAR.

    Most consumers are helpless sheep, heading right into the NAR slaughter house without fear or a fight.

  9. gary says:
    February 19, 2007 at 4:35 pm

    Same goes for retail. Why do so many people pay retail prices for most goods when some research will net you significant savings?

  10. RentinginNJ says:
    February 19, 2007 at 5:11 pm

    long-term demographic up trend has arrived

    What demographics are you referring to?

    The loss of high paying private sector jobs in NJ to minimum wage retail workers and government jobs? Or, the fact that NJ citizens are leaving the state in unprecedented numbers?
    ?

  11. BLB says:
    February 19, 2007 at 5:58 pm

    Anyone with the slightest clue about economics or statistics knows that calling a “bottom” during the bottom can only be accomplished via a crystal ball. Bottoms can ONLY be reliably called in retrospect.

    Beware anyone who says that now’s the peak, trough, or whatever. They may as well wear a big bejeweled turbin and guess the contents of letters before opening them. Yes, like on the Johnny Carson show.

    (with apologies to anyone who would file this under “noshitsherlock.”)

  12. Judicious1 says:
    February 19, 2007 at 6:56 pm

    Loss of speculation, increasing inventory, resetting ARMs, collapsing subprime lenders, negative savings rate, tapped out housing ATM, higher property taxes, higher energy costs, higher interest rates….

    Bottom?? Maybe in another 3 or 4 years.

  13. bergembubbleburst says:
    February 19, 2007 at 7:14 pm

    #7 Sally: surely you are joking? Unstoppable upward trend? You are joking. Sgow us the jbos, show us the love that will kepp prices up, up, and away.

  14. 200 Mbps BROADBAND via POWER LINES says:
    February 19, 2007 at 8:00 pm

    Subprime lending bust will cause HARD LANDING in Housing Bubble… watch this videos…

    http://www.paperdinero.com/BNN.aspx?id=78

  15. rhymingrealtor says:
    February 19, 2007 at 8:00 pm

    BBB

    Sally is a realtor who has visited us from Jersey shore bubble blog. She’s famous over there.

    KL

  16. 200 Mbps BROADBAND via POWER LINES says:
    February 19, 2007 at 8:00 pm

    Subprime lending bust will cause HARD LANDING in Housing Bubble… watch these videos…

    http://www.paperdinero.com/BNN.aspx?id=78

  17. chicagofinance says:
    February 19, 2007 at 9:33 pm

    Broadband

    ? – your opinion is based on what?

  18. James Bednar says:
    February 20, 2007 at 6:21 am

    Judging by the link posted, he is clearly influenced by the Money Honey … just like Bennie was.

    jb

  19. James Bednar says:
    February 20, 2007 at 7:13 am

    The poll currently sits at:

    Yes: 29%
    No: 72%
    51043 Votes to date

  20. bergenbubbleburst says:
    February 20, 2007 at 9:31 am

    #15 Well that explains it. No Spring market rebound, no matter what the lovely Sally thinks.

  21. ricky_nu says:
    February 20, 2007 at 10:41 am

    from a historical perspective, housing starts peaked where they did in 1983 at about 2.2m units. They were reported to be 1.4m units on Friday. In 1983 starts began to fall, and fell for 7 years down to .8m units. This woudl indicate that we are about 50% through the strom at this point, and still have a ways to go.

  23. bergembubbleburst says:
    February 20, 2007 at 8:12 pm

    #23 Sally, did you read th whold article, did you see the part where a realtor said not everyyhing with any price is selling.

    Do you really,really think that after the huge boom we had that there would be a little pull abck, and that it would be up, up and away again?

    Are you aware of what is happening in NJ, do you understand the stat eis bankrupt from top to bottm, have you seen the countless studies warning that the state is not creating good high paying jobs?

    Do you undestand that the state has the highest property taxes in the nation?

    Can you give us one reason as to why none of these facts will impact the houisg market in NJ.

    With all due respect can you think Sally? Can you think?

    If you like so many others can give us the rah rah rela estate cry, can you give us one reason, just one?

  24. Josie says:
    February 21, 2007 at 1:49 am

    # 22 Sally
    That article is also very specific to Manhattan, but not the outer boroughs.

    I live in the Bronx, and there are for sale signs everywhere.

    My husband and I have been seriously looking to buy a home this past year. We’ve been living in a studio with our son, and first thought we’d have to leave the city, because we saw nothing we could afford under 500,000. Honestly strugling to imagine how we could afford anything over 300,000. Tough because I’ve been in my neighborhood all my life, and my family and friends are here, and houses not too long ago were between 2-300,000.
    .
    Now, I’m seeing houses under 400,000 for the first time, and inventory grows exponentially each week.
    Yet I haven’t read one article describing this shift in the boros!

    I gain inspiration from this site. Even though you focus mostly on NJ, there are still many parallel themes.
    Thanks for putting the information out there,
    and thanks to JB!

  25. bergenbubbleburst says:
    February 21, 2007 at 9:31 am

    #25 Josie I understand prices are dropping IN Throggs Neck, Pelham Bay and City Island, all nice Bronx areas.

  26. Josie says:
    February 21, 2007 at 2:48 pm

    #25
    Yes, those are the areas we’re looking in, but we’re waiting til the end of the year, hoping they come down more where we can really afford it. But we really do need to move!

    My husband’s from Queens and would prefer moving there, but I’m hearing that’s the only boro not coming down yet.

    Prices are still uneven, too. The house next door to where we live is for sale, and needs a ton of work, new kitchen, bathrooms and closets need to be gutted, flooding problems in the basement, and more. We know from the previous owner that the house sold 3 years ago for 340K, yet they’ve listed at $515K, and put the word out that they won’t take less than $490K. Probably to pay for the next house they moved into.

    So it’s still a crazy market no matter what.

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