“This spring, they’ll be lucky to sell.”

From BusinessWeek:

No Spring Thaw for Housing

Maybe you guessed it, but now it’s official: The housing market has not hit bottom. Poor home sales in cold-and-quiet February may be excusable, but in March, April, and May, they are a sure sign of distress. The latest numbers indicate that the spring of 2007 will go down as one of the worst real estate seasons in years.

March, April, and May are traditionally the strongest months for home sales. Pleasant weather draws shoppers out of hibernation, and buyers want to get settled by summer so they can take their vacations and be ready for the coming school year. In the Northeast, interested buyers venture out in the wet season to settle fears of leaky roofs and flooded basements.

But this year, the usual throngs of spring buyers just aren’t there. On May 1, the National Association of Realtors reported that home sales closed in April will remain soft, with some drag possible into May. The NAR’s Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in March, dropped 10.5% from March, 2006, and 4.9% from February, 2007, to 104.3, the lowest reading since March, 2003.

The prediction for home sales in the coming months was worst in the Northeast region, where the index fell 14% year over year and 4.9% from February’s reading. The West showed the most promise, with the index rising 1.6% from February but still falling 8.6% from year-ago levels. NAR does not break out sales by state.

Now, most of the blame has fallen on the new stricter lending that has reduced the pool of potential buyers. “Although the weather improved in March, we’re starting to see the effects of a decline in subprime lending and tighter lending standards,” Lereah says of March’s Pending Home Sales Index reading.

But tighter lending standards from companies such as Washington Mutual (WM) and Merrill Lynch’s (MER) First Franklin are only part of the problem. “Even if they kept [standards] the same you wouldn’t get the same recovery,” says McPherron, noting that house prices accelerated faster than incomes during the housing boom. “What [subprime lenders] have done is stopped the bleeding.”

McPherron, on the other hand, says he wouldn’t be surprised if home sales were still soft well into the summer months, even though year-over-year comparisons could improve. And if the trend set in March continues, as the numbers suggest, into April, May, and beyond, the many sellers who are struggling to make their mortgage payments and holding out desperately for a spring buying boom could be in for a shock, at least, and foreclosure at worst.

“Many people think, ‘if I can just hang on ’til the spring,’ they will get an offer,” says McPherron. “This spring, they’ll be lucky to sell.”

This entry was posted in Housing Bubble, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

173 Responses to “This spring, they’ll be lucky to sell.”

  1. SG says:

    Well, I have a crude barometer on how things are going. I just keep simple count of number of homes on market for my selected criteria. In this article author wondered April will be the test of the market. Well at the end of March, my criteria gave me 174 homes on market. Today (March 2nd) I have 204 homes on market.

    I don’t see April shinning that much.

  2. pesche says:

    yes, but prices never go down in bergen
    county. look at all the new homes going
    up. and they are sold. 1.2 million, 1.5
    all going fast.

    that’s the conversation I just had with
    a BC resident. Bergen, you can’t lose.

    Taxes, no problem, that’s the price you pay
    to live in Bergen. Close to NYC, shopping
    and after all, all the towns are nice.

  3. essex says:

    Not a huge fan of Bergen County based on what I have seen, perhaps some of the tackiest strip malls in the world reside there. Sorry.

  4. James Bednar says:

    From MarketWatch:

    Mortgage applications crawl higher

    Applications for new mortgages increased 0.6% last week on higher demand for loans to buy a home, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported Wednesday.

    The total number of applications filed including purchase loans and refinancing loans was up about 9% compared with the same week a year ago.

    The MBA’s data do not indicate how many applications were accepted. Lenders have reported tightening their standards for loans, especially for subprime and exotic alt-A loans.

    The number of applications filed to refinance an existing mortgage decreased 3.2% last week.

    The volume of loan applications to buy a home increased 4% compared with the previous week.

  5. James Bednar says:

    Tech-geeks will certainly get a kick out of this one.

    New Jersey highways to be used as a power source, Governor made an offer he couldn’t refuse

    Bada bing! Check out this new proposed source of renewable energy, now funneling through the industrial rumor pipes of good ole’ New Jersey. With the *ahem* untimely “accident” that NJ Governor John Corzine recently was involved with, it seems that big plans are already being devised in the “sleep with the fishes” Garden State. New Jerseyians, or New Jersites. Or however you say it, are planning for wind turbines powered by the breeze generated from the renowned Jersey highways, to help reduce the amount of electricity being used.

  6. njrebear says:

    82 percent of Freddie Mac-owned loans that were refinanced resulted in new mortgages with loan amounts that were at least five percent higher than the original mortgage balances…

    http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2007/05/freddie-mac-reports-on-cash-outs.html

  7. njrebear says:

    Citigroup to Acquire Bisys for $1.45B

    http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070502/citigroup_bisys.html?.v=1

    Bisys is a provider of outsourcing services for the financial services sector. Under terms of the deal, Bisys shareholders will receive $12 in cash per share, — $11.85 per share from Citigroup at closing and a special dividend of 15 cents per share payable by Bisys — for total consideration of $1.47 billion.

    Citigroup said it will combine Bisys’ fund services and alternatives investment services.

  8. James Bednar says:

    From Marketwatch:

    Layoff plans jump 44% to 70,672, Challenger says

    Job reduction announcements by major U.S. corporations soared by 44% to 70,672 in April after falling to an eight-month low in March, according to a monthly report released Wednesday by outplacement firm Challenger Gray & Christmas.

    Layoff plans were up 18% compared with April 2006. It’s the first time since September than layoffs rose on a year-over-year comparison.

    The declining housing market led to 6,000 lost jobs in the financial sector in April, the firm said.

    In April, the top industries for job reductions were financial with 33,789, government with 5,643, autos with 4,089, industrial goods with 3,968 and consumer products with 3,391.

  9. thatBIGwindow says:

    #2 Close to NYC, shopping
    and after all, all the towns are nice.

    Except for Garfield, Bergenfield, most of Hackensack, parts of Teaneck and Englewood, Moonachie, parts of Lodi, etc

  10. James Bednar says:

    From Marketwatch:

    Owens Corning first-quarter profit $1 mln vs $63 mln

    Owens Corning Wednesday reported first-quarter earnings of $1 million, or a penny per share. In the same period a year earlier, the company’s predecessor operations prior to its emergence from bankruptcy protection, the company earned $63 million, or $1.05 a share. The company said its adjusted earnings, excluding items, were $61 million, or 14 cents a share, for the latest quarter. Sales fell 17% in the three-month period to $1.32 billion from $1.6 billion in the same period a year earlier. The average estimate of analysts polled by Thomson Financial was for a profit of 20 cents a share in the March period. The Toledo, Ohio-based building materials company said it expects its insulating systems business to continue to be impacted by the slowdown in U.S. housing starts that’s expected to extend well into 2007 by the National Association of Home Builders.

  11. BC Bob says:

    “Maybe you guessed it, but now it’s official: The housing market has not hit bottom”

    Hit bottom? We are closer to the top than the bottom. When irrational markets turn, they go a lot further/longer than anyone can imagine. This market will be no different.

    Cold weather, snow, heat, humidity, rain, floods, drought, etc…. Makes no difference, the biggest RE bust of all time playing right before your eyes.

    JB [8],

    Corp profits are slowing, wages are accelerating and productivity growth is slowing. Net effect? Cutbacks.

  12. James Bednar says:

    From MSN/Money:

    Why rent? To get richer

    I have something un-American to confess: I rent an apartment despite having enough money to buy a house. I plan to keep renting for as long as I can. I’m not just holding out for better prices. Renting will make me richer.

    I normally write about stocks for SmartMoney.com, but the boss asked me to explain to readers my reason for renting. Here goes: Businesses are great investments while houses are poor ones, so I’d rather rent the latter and own the former.

  13. James Bednar says:

    From the link above:

    “Renters throw money down the drain.”

    Rent is the cost of owning shares with money you would otherwise spend on a house. Houses have ownership costs, too: taxes, insurance and maintenance. Rent costs about 5% of house prices each year if we apply the price-rent ratio of 19. House incidentals often cost around 2%.

    If you have $300,000 and a choice between spending it on a house or shares, you’ll pay $6,000 a year in incidentals if you buy the house or about $15,000 a year ($1,250 a month) in rent if you buy the shares. But the shares will return $21,000 a year after inflation while the house will return zero. (My numbers work out even better than these. I pay a smidgen less than $1,250 a month for rent, while house prices in my neighborhood are far higher than $300,000.)

    Note that houses and shares have transaction costs, too. Homebuyers pay around 1% in closing costs when they buy and 6% in broker commissions when they sell. Share buyers pay $10 trading commissions, which are negligible for buy-and-hold investors.

  14. James Bednar says:

    From the link above:

    “Homebuyers get tax breaks.”

    So do share buyers, but both are a bad deal. The interest on loans for houses (mortgages) and shares (margin balances) is tax-deductible. But the rates are almost always too high. A big house loan presently costs 6.1% interest, while a big stock loan costs about 9%. For the returns, we can forget about inflation because it helps debtors while hurting investors, making it a wash for those who borrow to invest. Still, nominal returns of 3% for houses and 10% for stocks aren’t high enough to justify those rates. The tax breaks aren’t really breaks at all. Moreover, a majority of homeowners don’t claim them. Their incomes are low enough to make the standard deduction a better deal.

  15. James Bednar says:

    From the link above:

    “What about the pride of homeownership?”

    It’s not for me. I define ownership as no longer having to pay for something and being able to do as I please with it. I own my coffee maker. Homeowners must pay taxes each year even when their mortgage payments are done. In certain markets they can’t even make changes to the houses they’ve paid for without seeking the approval of others. Personally, I feel the pride of ownership for shares of businesses, and I’m proud to occupy a nice place while leaving the burden and poor returns and maintenance to someone else.

  16. James Bednar says:

    From the link above:

    “Renting is for poor people.”

    True. But it’s for rich people, too. The average renter makes about $34,000 a year, but while the percentage of renters declines after incomes exceed $20,000 and rents exceed $600 a month, it jumps again once incomes top $150,000 and rents top $1,200 a month. In other words, poor people rent modest apartments for lack of choice. Middle-income people buy houses. High-income people, presumably with a dose of financial savvy, often rent nice apartments instead of buying.

  17. James Bednar says:

    From Marketwatch:

    Private-sector jobs up 64,000, ADP says

    U.S. private-sector jobs increased by 64,000 in April, the weakest job growth in nearly four years, according to the monthly ADP employment report released Wednesday.

    Service-sector firms added about 106,000 jobs, while the goods-producing industries cut 42,000, including 20,000 in manufacturing.

    Goods-producing industries include manufacturing, mining and construction. The 22,000 jobs lost in goods-producing industries excluding manufacturing is the largest since November 2001.

    Small businesses created 45,000 jobs, medium-sized firms created 29,000 and large businesses shed 10,000 jobs.

  18. James Bednar says:

    From Reuters:

    Subprime CDO pricing getting perilous, managers say

    Pricing of collateralized debt obligation bonds laden with subprime mortgage securities is getting more perilous amid deep uncertainties over when ratings on the assets will be downgraded, money managers and Wall Street analysts said.

    Prices on CDOs — or debt securities created by compiling slices of existing asset-backed bonds — don’t yet reflect the strong likelihood of downgrades by rating companies such as Moody’s Investors Service, they said. But vast disagreements over what a CDO is worth based on expected delinquencies or losses is keeping them from trading at all in many cases.

    “A lot of downgrading has to happen” on CDOs that include subprime asset-backed securities, Gibson said.

  19. James Bednar says:

    I’d normally not post an article like this, since it seems to be more about advertising than reporting. However, I think it’s interesting to see how many real estate agents were involved in the seminar. From the Record:

    Foreclosures bring opportunity

    As the reports of a nationwide mortgage meltdown roll in, an industry is growing up around homeowners in distress.

    Just one example: More than 200 real estate agents packed a Paramus hotel ballroom recently for a lesson — and a sales pitch — on the business opportunities offered by the expected rise in mortgage delinquencies.

  20. James Bednar says:

    ***********************************
    Looking for comments/observations on performance throughout the day.

    Thanks,
    The Management
    ***********************************

  21. RentL0rd says:

    JB #5, sounds like NJ is trying to create a perpetual engine there ;-)

    I Wonder how much the traffic will slow-down because of the wind-mills or what not.

  22. James Bednar says:

    The folks over at Slashdot absolutely tore that idea apart.

    jb

  23. BC Bob says:

    “Fidelity International has become the first foreign fund management group to launch a back-office operation in China, reflecting the country’s rise in pulling power as a financial outsourcing centre.”

    http://biz.yahoo.com/ft/070429/fto042920071724404045.html?.v=1

  24. James Bednar says:

    My biggest concern, what the heck would a single barrier cost to replace? I don’t think the guys that thought this idea up realize exactly what the point of “Jersey Barriers” are.

    jb

  25. RentL0rd says:

    To
    The Management
    NJ RE REPORT

    Subject: Blogging is not futzing anymore

    Dear Sir,
    I have a complaing – your site is too fast. My efforts to spend more time on the web and do less work have been messed up. Please slow down your website. I posted a comment and it appeared a minute before I hit the submit button.

    Yours truly,
    RentL0rd

  26. bergenbubbleburst says:

    #2 pesche: Your friend is in a word cluelss. It is amazing to me that even now there are still people out there spouting this stuff.

  27. bilz says:

    when will the sellers start dropping their prices? that’s the $64000 question…

    the market has stunk the past 6 months, but if sellers are still using the comp sales figures, they’re still overpriced…i’m curious as to how the realtors come up with the “correct” list price for a house these days.

    Personally, I’m expecting a 10-15% drop before things level off next year. I’m waiting til Dec to buy…hopefully things drop about 10% by then…and I’ll consider jumping in.

  28. RentL0rd says:

    bilz – this is akin to piling more cards on top of each other. You can keep piling them and make the crash worse. At some point it will all come crashing down.
    In fact, that’s what noted economists are worried about – including Lereah himself in his slides. Sellers being blind to reality is making the problem so bad.. that the crash will have a much bigger thud!

  29. Richie says:

    Taxes, no problem, that’s the price you pay to live in Bergen. Close to NYC, shopping and after all, all the towns are nice.

    Bayonne is close to NYC, has plenty of shopping as well. Why don’t people want to live there?

    You get a lot less for your $$ in Bergen. Comparable homes in towns closer to NYC sell for much less.

  30. RentinginNJ says:

    I Wonder how much the traffic will slow-down because of the wind-mills or what not.

    Wow. Talk about perverse incentives. Now the state will be in a position to “encourage” traffic and driving polluting automobiles in order to get a return on their investment.

    Same thing happened with the garbage burners they built. When recycling rates improved, the county run resource recovery (trash burners) suffered.

  31. GL says:

    Today’s StarLedger Op/Ed Cartoon – “Housing Slump Monopoly”:

    http://www.nj.com/opinion/ledger/sheneman/

  32. rhymingrealtor says:

    Looking for comments/observations on performance throughout the day

    While some folks here,
    have something serious to say
    I come here,to give & get
    my laugh of the day!

    KL

  33. HOUSE OF CARDS says:

    From Forbes.com VIDEO OF Prof. G. Schilling !!!

    Recession in ‘07
    (255 sec.) One of Wall Street’s biggest bears tells us why investors should look out below

    http://www.forbes.com/video/?video=fvn/moneymasters/vj_mm122806&partner=yahootix

    Is Wallstreet in Denial right now ?

  34. James Bednar says:

    From the International Herald Tribune:

    Alarm raised over U.S. commercial real estate lending

    Spurred by the collapse of the subprime mortgage market, the leading bond rating agencies are beginning to crack down on what they see as risky lending practices in commercial real estate.

    Low interest rates and an abundance of investment capital have led to heady times for buyers and sellers of office buildings, hotels and other income-producing property. Buildings have traded at record prices and loan terms have become increasingly generous, with many buyers putting little or no equity into the deals.

    Like residential loans, commercial mortgages are pooled and packaged into bonds that are sliced up into portions carrying different degrees of risk. According to Moody’s, there were $769.6 billion in commercial mortgage-backed securities at the end of last year, representing 26.1 percent of all outstanding commercial mortgages, including those for apartment buildings.

    The agencies that rate these bonds on behalf of bond dealers have issued warnings in the past, but last month they sounded a new note of urgency, saying for the first time that they would adjust their ratings to reflect their concerns.

    “Underwriting has gotten so frothy that we have to take a stand,” said Jim Duca, a group managing director at Moody’s Investors Service. “The industry was heading to Niagara Falls.”

  35. bergenbubbleburst says:

    I am staring to see some asking rpices back to to 04 levels, so the market is changing (although slower than I would have liked)

    The market was slowing in late 03, but the advent of sub prime, and all its toxic financing prolonged the bubble for another 2 years.

    I think you need to haev prices get back to late 02 early 03 levels before it makes sense to buy again.

    And then of course there is the ever increasing issue of property taxes, which will continue to be a serious concern going forward.

    Bergen County even though I live there is on a whole very over rated.

  36. James Bednar says:

    From the Press of Atlantic City:

    Seapine homebuyers hope slump won’t stop progress

    The distress in the real-estate industry showed up on the street Tuesday at Seapine Estates.
    Preparations to remove the construction trailers of developer Elliott Building Group set off a bit of a panic among homebuyers already wondering when, if ever, they would see their houses built.

    “I was just out there today,” said Douglas Godshall, who lives in a condo in the township and has paid $46,000 on his house at Seapine. So far, it has been framed and sheathed.

    “We went to look at homes in another builder’s development today,” he said. “I don’t know what we’re going to do.”

    He said he talked to a stucco subcontractor at Seapine last week. “He said they don’t have any money. He said the subcontractors all walked off the job, and when they get paid, they’ll come back,” Godshall said.

    DiPasquale said removing the construction trailers was just part of the developer’s efforts to reduce costs in reaction to the slump in the real estate market.

    “Read the newspapers and watch TV. There’s a major slowdown and with everything that’s going on, we’re just looking to keep our costs down and do things a lot more efficiently and with less overhead than in the past,” he said.

    DiPasquale said the company was not in distress, but it is in negotiation with lenders seeking to restructure its debt.

    “It’s like when a landlord goes to collect your overdue rent and he finds you packing your stuff,” Emmanuel said. “I think it’s going to be very bad.”

  37. bergenbuyer says:

    #19 She predicted that only a handful of the 200 people in the room would actually be able to use lists of mortgage delinquencies to increase their business, because of all the “legwork that’s involved.”

    Whether this foreclosure listing is a sham or not, she’s averse to any additional work beyond the typical, walk into a house, small talk and then make $10K. Here’s an opportunity for realtors to add value and provide valuable knowledge, but most won’t do it.

    I have nothing personal against realtors, I like mine, but the cost of having one far exceeds the value they bring in 99% of transactions.

  38. Jase Rion says:

    sorry for off-topic a bit. but i just wanted to say…EASY MONEY?

    Shares of MasterCard MasterCard Inc (MA)
    126.85 12.00 +10.45%

    Quote | Chart | News | Profile | Add to Watchlist
    [MA 126.85 12.00 (+10.45%) ] rose after the world’s second-biggest credit card franchise said its first-quarter profit surged 70%, hitting a record high. The company credited favorable currency exchanges and stronger use of its brand overseas to the increased profits. MasterCard said profit rose to $1.57 a share, compared to the $1.15 a share expected by analysts polled by Thomson Financial.

    source: CNBC.com

  39. James Bednar says:

    From the AP:

    U.S. Factory Orders Rise Sharply

    Orders to U.S. factories surged in March by the largest amount in a year, an encouraging sign that the recent slowdown in manufacturing may be ending.

    The Commerce Department said Wednesday that total factory orders rose by 3.1 percent in March, pushed higher by a big jump in demand for commercial aircraft and the biggest rise in the category that tracks business investment in new equipment in 2 1/2 years.

    The increase was far better than the 2 percent figure that analysts had been expecting and offered hope that manufacturers were beginning to experience rising demand after a recent weak period brought on by troubles in housing and auto sales.

  40. curiousd says:

    “Man shot at firefighters who refused to rescue cat”

    …ahhhh, sweet, sweet america.

    http://www.9news.com/news/watercooler/article.aspx?storyid=68272

  41. BLB says:

    While some folks here,
    have something serious to say
    I come here,to give & get
    my laugh of the day!

    Here, I have one for you….

    When I refresh my browser
    and there’s yet ANOTHER o’r-priced listing
    people stop by desk
    ask why my eyes keep on misting

    So I troll on this website
    when I’m home for the night
    Thinking “I wish they are wrong”
    “But they’re probably right”

    It doesn’t get better
    In fact the more I do sob
    when people read my dumb rhymes
    And say “keep your day job”

  42. looking in ny says:

    James Bednar Says: (#15)
    May 2nd, 2007 at 8:26 am
    From MSN/Money:
    Why rent? To get richer

    “homeowners mostly just stick it out rather than sell during soft markets. But if house prices remain flat, they produce negative real returns due to the creep of inflation. According to calculations made by The Economist in summer 2005, house prices would have to stay flat for 12 years with annual inflation at 2.5% for the ratio of prices to rents to fall from its 2005 perch to merely its 1975-to-2000 average.”

    Great article. I wonder if prices may continue flat as he describes, and just drag out. Seems like prices in my area -nyc boros – still aren’t dropping. But then what happens to the first time home buyers like myself who are priced out, and are needed to drive the overall market forward?

  43. HillBilly says:

    Just a quick anecdote or two:

    An acquaintance and his wife graduated real estate classes in Dec. They have mad one transaction to date, a rental that paid $1250 which they split with another agent. They they then had to pay for some additional fees, dues and whatnot, total net $100.00
    Same guy has a buddy selling a condo in Hackensack(not through him, company hired agent b/c he is getting relocated)starting price $325,000. A couple of drops now at $280,000, still no takers.

  44. startingoverinNJ says:

    I agree with Bergen Bubble Burst in #35. As I watch the market, waiting for my house to sell, I’m starting to see some realistic pricing scattered among the $800K capes. And I’ve reduced my ask to what it was when I bought in ’03. But nobody’s even looking out in Hunterdon where I live. And if I can’t sell, I can’t move on.

    This reminds me of the early 80’s, when I was in law school. The practitioner who taught my real estate class observed that one sale could trigger a chain of 9 or ten closings, when that missing link enabled a series of buys and sells dependent on the buy or sell of one party to a linked transaction. (Did I express that well enough for you to know what I mean?)

  45. Read my lips: Misery 2008 says:

    If you grbbers and starving bunch think that you will be bailed out in 2008.

    Keep fantasizing.

    U ain’t seen misery yet.

    Bleed’em dry..Make’m pay for your time and patience. U want more? Get a second job.
    hehehehehe

  46. looking in ny says:

    Actually, it’s true, some prices have come down about 20%, and that is substantial. Just seems like a lot of sellers are still being stubborn, though.

  47. scribe says:

    Here’s a laugh for KL. An ad from craig’s list:

    Buy my house — then RENT it back to me

    Date: 2007-05-01, 5:45PM EDT

    Would like to sell my house immediately to get the cash, but then rent it from you for about 12 to 18 months, so I can have my kids finish school next year and move to my dream house out of state at my leisure. If this sounds like a proposal you’d be interested in, let me know! Brick front cape cod with attached garage, 4 bedrooms, 2 baths, 100 x 124 corner lot. Need to get appraised yet, but I guess-timate in the (+ or -) $500,000 range.

  48. RentinginNJ says:

    Dow up almost 90 to 13,223.

    I guess there is lots of liquidity sloshing around out there formerly destined to end up in real estate, now making its way back into the Dow. It looks like the herd has changed (or is changing) directions.

    A similar phenomenon occurred after the NASDAQ took a hit and we saw a “flight to quality” back to the Dow.

    So, where does it go from here? Are the shoeshine boys now back in the stock market? Is it time to get out or do I let it ride? Will the stock market (the Dow) be the new bubble that bails the country out from a serious housing-led recession, just as the housing bubble bailed the country after the tech stock crash?

  49. curiousd says:

    #45/looking
    I agree. Several friends have bought property or SFHs in the last 3 months… at that age… and the pricing was 20% lower than original asking, but still 50% higher (or so) than 2002 asking.

    what to do?

  50. lurkerA says:

    #46 – the funny part is that you know there’s an idiot out there thinking “woah, easy investment, i wouldn’t even have to find a renter or do any updates, etc. i can just sell it for more money in 12-18 months after collecting all that rent” and doesn’t realize it’s a joke.

    awesome.

  51. curiousd says:

    management, the site kicks ars.

  52. skep-tic says:

    I still don’t understand why any realtor would take a listing from someone who insisted on 2005 pricing. why waste the time and resources marketing such places?

  53. nd says:

    I went to see a brownstone in Jersey City yesterday. 151 Grand St in Paulus Hook, big 4-family on a deep lot, priced at just under 1 mio. It was the first showing, and they only show it one evening per week, for 1 hour. The place was packed, lots of realtors with clients, and quite a few developers. I doubt there will be another showing next week, it may be under contract by then.

    Still no signs of a slowdown here…

  54. James Bednar says:

    I still don’t understand why any realtor would take a listing from someone who insisted on 2005 pricing. why waste the time and resources marketing such places?

    Turn down a listing? Are you crazy? Who in their right mind would ever turn down a listing?

    jb

  55. James Bednar says:

    I went to see a brownstone in Jersey City yesterday. 151 Grand St in Paulus Hook, big 4-family on a deep lot, priced at just under 1 mio.

    What’s the rent roll? If it’s bringing in a high enough rent roll, at $250k per unit, it might not be a bad investment.

    jb

  56. dreamtheaterr says:

    The site is so fast that I thought I was viewing a previously cached page!

  57. Discouraged in NJ says:

    I found this in my e-travels….

    Show Me a Five Dollar Bill, and I’ll Show You Why Your Listing Expired

    Sometimes it’s hard for sellers to understand why their listing expired. Sellers typically enjoy many fine years in their home, so they sometimes price their homes subjectively.

    To understand why listings expire, it helps to imagine a listing expiring on something we understand has an objective price. So let’s imagine for a minute that you had a five dollar bill, but — perhaps for some twilight zone reason — five dollar bills were suddenly more difficult to sell. Because of this, you give a bill-salesman a 90-day listing on your five dollar bill, but it doesn’t sell, and the listing expires.

    Full article here:
    http://tinyurl.com/2d8luz

  58. nd says:

    jb #55:

    rent roll currently only $4000, but $5000 is probably more realistic, and more with some improvements.

  59. RentL0rd says:

    I am not sure about the Housing Realestate, but the internet realestate market (domain names) still appears to be hot.

    I got an offer from a company in India for a domain name I own.. I never intended to sell it, but the dollars sound yummy :)

  60. bergenbubbleburst says:

    #53 nd: Could be a lot of noise too.

  61. bergenbubbleburst says:

    Some Realtors will take a listing, even if it is sky high, in the belief that once it is on the market for a while, with no activity,sellers will then reduce the asking price.

  62. hobokenite says:

    Only 200x rent then.

    A bargain!

    /sarcasm

  63. twice shy says:

    Question: Why would a seller choose a “broker exclusive” listing that is not in multiple listing?
    What can the buyer infer about a seller who goes this route? Does this mean the property blows out the competition and will sell at or near ask in a short time?

    Thanks.

  64. BC Bob says:

    To the IT Dept,

    The site is faster than Lereah stating we are at another bottom. The Slowsky’s may be knocking the door down soon.

  65. Pooch123 says:

    Here’s an idea for a new model for home sales. Since realtors sometimes do and sometimes dont “add value” to the transaction ie cause the home to be sold at a higher price than via FSBO, why don’t home buyers sign agreements whereby the realtor’s commission is “half of whatever amount the sale price exceeds X dollars” (or something like that) with X being what the seller is pretty sure he can get going the FSBO route. Is this not possible because sellers are inevitably going to be way too arrogant regarding what they think they can get going FSBO? Thoughts?

  66. Clotpoll says:

    2x shy (63)-

    Many possible assumptions here:

    1. Seller is famous/infamous and wants privacy.

    2. Seller is paranoid and is willing to offer home in a non-competitive bidding environment, because he only trusts his agent to deal with propsects.

    3. Agent- looking to turn both sides of a potential deal- has duped seller into believing there’s a benefit to keeping thousands of cooperating agents from bringing prospects.

  67. Clotpoll says:

    You’re pretty much right on seller attitudes as to what they believe they can draw going FSBO. However, variable commissions are a great way for an agent to put skin in the game. They are perfectly legal (as long as not expressed as a net listing, which is totally illegal), and I both offer this to potential clients and encourage my agents to do likewise.

  68. Clotpoll says:

    A good agent should never balk at a fairly-constructed variable commission proposal.

    I wouldn’t mind if it became common practice.

  69. Pooch123 says:

    Thanks Clot. What is a “net listing” or could you point me to a website that explains it?

  70. Pooch123 says:

    Whoops. Lazy me.

    NET LISTING

    A listing based on the net price the seller will receive if the property is sold. Under a net listing the broker can offer the property for sale at the highest price obtainable to increase the commission. This type of listing is illegal in many states.

  71. fanshawe says:

    Re: Net Listing

    Let me apologize in advance if I’m being a bit dense today, but why is a net listing illegal?

    As long as proper disclosures on the property are being made, I don’t see how this situation is unfair to anyone.

  72. Clotpoll says:

    Net listing is illegal because in the eyes of the law, the agent is put in a conflict-of-interest position vis a vis the seller and the seller’s interests. An agent who’s allowed to jack the asking price as high as possible to obtain maximum commission could well violate his fiduciary responsibility to serve the client first. An agent must serve the client before he serves the deal…or himself.

  73. Clotpoll says:

    That being said, there is a razor-thin line sometimes between net listings and some of the variable commission deals I’ve seen over the years. If you’re a math wiz, you can cook up some interesting scenarios.

  74. jcer says:

    I live over there and I will tell you why, the rental market is insanely tight, with minimal work the rent roll is probably close to 7k. Additionally depending on the condition a 3000-4000sqft brownstone at 1 mil represents a good deal in todays market although grand is not the nicest street. In JC/Hoboken the market seems to be moving alright at the lower end with 1-2 bedrooms moving pretty easily. Larger units seem to languish on the market longer.

  75. waitingwatching says:

    2x shy #63
    I don’t know what you could infer from an exclusive listing in terms of willingness to negotiate price, but one personal experience might illustrate why some people go this route. when my father sold his house a few years back he was confident it would sell given the area. being a retired cop he was paranoid about people trooping through his house potentially casing the place. so he gave the listing on an exclusive basis (after negotiating the commission down to 4%) with the proviso of no open houses and no mls listing. he sold the hosue in three weeks for about 7% below asking. he probbly could have generated a bidding situation with wider marketing, but piece of mind was worth more to him than the extra dollars.

  76. fanshawe says:

    Clotpoll,

    Thanks for the insight.

    If the sellers puts a time limit on the net listing agreement (so the realtor can’t stall forever to obtain the most favorable price for themselves) and ensure that the commission is only payable upon successful closure of transaction, that to me would remove the conflict of interest.

    All the seller cares about in this case is getting their $XXX amount that they stated they wanted and in a reasonable timeframe, no?

    I can now see how a net listing might create somewhat of a conflict of interest, but I is this any worse than hiring a realtor as a buyer and then paying a commission based on the selling price? This, to me, creates a much greater conflict of interest than a net listing.

  77. x-underwriter says:

    Pretty good set of articles in Money.com today

    http://money.cnn.com/magazines/moneymag/realestatebubble/2007/index.html

    For sale: Scenes from a bubble
    The buyers: The Quams and the too-good-to-be-true mortgage.
    The brokers: Would you get your mortgage from this man?
    The appraisers: Price estimates made to order
    The investors: How to get rich trading “idiot” loans

  78. twice shy says:

    thanks Clot and WW for your answers to my
    brokers exclusive query.

    much appreciated.

  79. James Bednar says:

    From NJ.com:

    Strahan’s ex to auction Montclair mansion

    The wife of New York Giant Michael Strahan, strapped for cash after an appellate court stayed her divorce payoff, said today she will put the former couple’s 30-room Montclair mansion on the auction block next week.

    Ellen Marshall, her attorney, said the house – valued last year at $3.6 million – would go on the market Tuesday. She said any real estate agent would be free to show the home at 99 Lloyd Road for the first three weeks, after which it will be listed with one of them.

  80. Pooch123 says:

    Is this a joke? $18,000 per month in child support for the twins in pre-school? I just hope that money goes towards actually supporting the kids and not another interest-only loan for mommy’s mansion. The divorce laws in NJ need a serious overhaul…

  81. James Bednar says:

    From MarketWatch:

    GMAC 1Q Loss $305M Vs Net $495M

    General Motors Acceptance Corp., formerly General Motors Corp.’s (GM) wholly owned financing arm, swung to a first-quarter loss of $305 million from a profit of $495 million a year earlier. Excluding a $910 million loss at Residential Capital LLC, or ResCap, earnings were $605 million, the New York-based financial services company said. The ResCap loss was affected by pressures in the U.S. mortgage market. ResCap has reduced its subprime mortgage asset portfolio and decreased its warehouse lending against subprime collateral, the company said. Revenue fell 27% to $3.38 billion from $4.62 billion a year ago.

  82. James Bednar says:

    From Reuters:

    A third of US homebuilders may be downgraded: S&P

    More than a third of all U.S. home builders are vulnerable to rating downgrades over the next two years as a downturn in the housing market lingers, data released by Standard & Poor’s this week showed.

    “The sector is now about one and a half years into what we believe may be a roughly three-year downturn,” S&P said in a report. “Our home-builder rating bias is emphatically negative, as the sector is in the midst of an inventory correction of uncertain — and potentially protracted — duration.”

  83. pesche says:

    just remember Bergen County is the place
    to be. Now is the time to buy. Taxes,no
    problem, offset by quality of living.

    Forget Bergenfield,Wallington,Lodi,Elmwood
    Park, Englewood, Teaneck,

    Plenty of shopping to keep you in the
    right frame of mind.

  84. James Bednar says:

    From Reuters:

    ResCap’s outlook was stable, now negative-Fitch

    Fitch Ratings on Wednesday changed its outlook on Residential Capital to negative from stable, indicating a greater chance of a rating downgrade on the mortgage financing holding company of GMAC.

  85. gary says:

    (Insert a sophisticated British voice here) Most of Bergen County, I’ve been told, is suitable for those auspicious types with “status” and apparent instruments of swaggness where all others simply crave to dwell but lack the means nor the genetic fabric. (End of pithy sounding British voice)

    I’ve also been told I’m a Bergen “Wannabe” because I stated to certain individuals that I don’t get the hype. I was also told that the southern towns of BC are not comparable to the “ahem” Northern towns. So, for $500,000 and $12,000 in taxes, you too can live in a Haughtyville cape that boasts an attic that claims to be 2 bedrooms.

  86. pesche says:

    gary,

    yu got to use the accent for the jag ad
    to go with the cape.

  87. Seneca says:

    http://money.cnn.com/2007/05/01/real_estate/bubble_investors.moneymag/index.htm

    Does anyone else find the “Home Affordability” calculator found here to be more than a little aggressive?

  88. gary says:

    pesche,

    (Picture Robert Di Nero) Are you talking to me?

    LOL!

    Why yes, the accent!! :)

  89. Painhrtz says:

    Hey, I live in Garfield!! I have hated it my whole life. No really it does suck, my wife coming from upper middle class really despises it. The reality being the only thing that seperates Garfield and Elmwood Park from being the ghetto is the Passaic River, and that really isn’t a deterrent any more.

  90. RentL0rd says:

    Seneca, I agree it does look too aggressive.

    Apart from the one posted by unrealtor in #92, I compared with this one:

    http://homefinance.nytimes.com/nyt/mortgageCalcs/calculator/house/

  91. rhymingrealtor says:

    BLB & Scribe

    Thanks, as usual I get more than I give (laughs) at this meeting place.

    Clot,

    Of course you answered re net listing much quicker than I, but believe it or not I saw one the other day, I was lucky enough to see one dirty deal! Total ingredients: 10% commish to bogus agency- totally bogus appraisal- net amount to seller, bogus concession It had nothing to do with me or any agents I know, it had to do with wildwood, what a cesspool of crooks in cohoots, I’m still floored by it. I can’t believe it got done.

    KL

  92. steve says:

    I went to see a brownstone in Jersey City yesterday. 151 Grand St in Paulus Hook, big 4-family on a deep lot, priced at just under 1 mio.
    _______

    Paulus Hook is certainly a great neighborhood- been there for years, just be aware that JC is preparing to do a tax reassessment, and many of those brownstones are paying only a fraction of their “proper” taxes vs. all the new condos going up. I know plenty of people with $1mil+ bldgs paying $3k/yr, while their neighbors with a 2bdrm condoshack are paying $10-12k. That will change substantially once the reval happens…

    Honestly, $1 mil for a 4 family in PH sounds too cheap unless it needs substantial work – I’d be wary if that’s their first shot out of the gate. I know there was one in that general vicinity that has been off and on the market for at least 2 years in the $995k+ range, apparently the layout was cramped and it needed work but I never looked at it myself. Grand can be a main thoroughfare (lots of traffic) but if bedrooms are in the back maybe not such a problem.

    Also, referencing the other comment re: “no slowdown” in JC that’s not my experience. I know a number of people with nice 1bdrms in Paulus Hook who had them sit on the market 7-9 months before selling, in the most recent case selling $50k (about 10%) less than ask some time ago.

    Prices per sq ft at peak in PH were north of $600 sq/ft, you can now get new construction considerably less, cheaper still factoring in incentives like parking and (oohhh) a granite counter.

    Hamilton Park has the better deals overall, but the crime there is substantially higher than Paulus Hook…you won’t find any “deals” in PH, but it’s worth a premium over everything else around it. Of course, 2 years from now, post-bubble pricing may be in full effect…

  93. bergenbubbleburst says:

    #87 gary; That also applies to central Bergen county, in that it is starting to have the same reputation as south Bergen.

    The status areas if you will are NW Bergen County,with the exception of Midland Pk, Mahwah (wannabe) and Waldwick.

    Over to NE Bergen and that is your other status area, with the exception of Northvale.

    Then you haev your wannabe borger towns, such as River Edge Oradell, Westwood and Hillsdale.

    And then of course in their own orbit would be Garfield and Lodi;everybody hates these towns.

  94. UnRealtor says:

    Has anyone considered a less desirable lot (adjacent to a highway, train tracks, etc), if the house was nice?

    It seems since the builders know such a location is not ideal, they often build particularly nice houses on less desirable lots.

  95. gary says:

    Garfield has some of the best Polish deli’s!! I like Garfield, it has some of the culture that Jersey City used to have when I was growing up.

  96. Richard says:

    >>I’ve also been told I’m a Bergen “Wannabe” because I stated to certain individuals that I don’t get the hype. I was also told that the southern towns of BC are not comparable to the “ahem” Northern towns. So, for $500,000 and $12,000 in taxes, you too can live in a Haughtyville cape that boasts an attic that claims to be 2 bedrooms.

    course you don’t get the hype. you’re envious. it speaks loud and clear.

  97. Richard says:

    garfield is a crap hole. even people that live there will tell you. anyone that tells you differently is either gary or lying.

  98. bergenbubbleburst says:

    #97 Un: DO NOT do it. Now that the market is in decline, things like location, location, location will matter again.

    You can fix a crappy house, but not a crappy location.

  99. Richard says:

    >>Richard, CNN might want to interview you.

    i’ll make a safe bet that my net worth is 10x yours, and only a portion of that is in real estate. but i digress. your giddyness over wishing for the demise of others so you can profit speaks to your character, or lack thereof.

  100. AntiTrump says:

    Reechard:

    No one can verify anyones networth on this forum so it serves no purpose other than an ego boost for your sorry ass. So save the trouble. I understand that you bought a house at the wrong time and keep coming back here justify your decision. Frankly no one cares so enjoy the view from your d_ck.

  101. steve says:

    Here’s a 4 family, Paulus Hook/JC, 163 Grand, a bit over a million, in need of complete gutting/renovation

    ______________

    Listing Details
    4 Family
    Listing Number: 480910
    MLS Number: 60013546
    Availability: Available
    Date Available: 10/09/06
    Essentials
    Lot Size: 17.76X100.33

    Location
    163 Grand Street
    Jersey City, NJ 07306
    Neighborhood: Paulus Hook
    Cross Street(s):
    Van Vorst ST. & Marin Blvd

    Price: $1,070,000

    Description:
    4 Family Vacant in need of Complete Rehab comes with Building Plans & approvals for 4 Condo units in desirable Paulus Hook section of J.C. in walking distance to Light Rail & Path Trains.

  102. njrebear says:

    Richard,

    “i’ll make a safe bet that my net worth is 10x yours”

    I don’t want to divulge personal details on a public blog but I’ll take your challenge any day :)

  103. dreamtheaterr says:

    i’ll make a safe bet that my net worth is 10x yours
    #102 Richie Rich, how is the uphill slope of the hedonic treadmill you’re on treating you?

  104. James Bednar says:

    I’ll host the images if you provide scans of your statements.

    jb

  105. BC Bob says:

    10X net worth? What a sorry *ss. I now realize who Kevin Brown was saluting, before he decided to take it out on the wall.

  106. Seneca says:

    http://homefinance.nytimes.com/nyt/mortgageCalcs/calculator/house/

    RentLord / Unrealtor

    Tried this one with similar results, maybe a 5% drop in affordable levels. For my personal risk comfort level, still seems a tad high.

    Hey Richard!!! Since you are in a sharing mood, why don’t you share with us what is considered an affordable home amount for you based on this calculator. I am guessing something in the $5-6 million range?

  107. dreamtheaterr says:

    Am I the only one, or is this Richard really a juvenile? Which guy in his right frame of mind challenges someone about net worth, etc on a public forum. It smacks of a complete lack of class or genteel upbringing.

  108. James Bednar says:

    From Reuters:

    Big mortgage firms won’t back subprime principles

    The two largest mortgage lenders in the United States have declined to endorse a set of principles that would help troubled subprime borrowers avoid foreclosure, a lawmaker who proposed the principles said on Wednesday.

    Representatives from Countrywide Financial Corp. (CFC.N: Quote, Profile , Research) and Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC.N: Quote, Profile , Research) both attended a mid-April ‘subprime summit’ organized by the chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, but those companies did not endorse the seven principles, which were formalized after that meeting.

  109. James Bednar says:

    For those who access the site via Blackberry or other PDA, we’ll be launching a mobile version in the next few days.

    Should make surfing from your mobile easier and faster.

    jb

  110. steve says:

    i’ll make a safe bet that my net worth is 10x yours, and only a portion of that is in real estate.
    _________

    Will everyone older than 12 please raise their hand?

    p.s. I bet Chicago’s Dad can beat your Dad in a fight!

    See you at recess.

  111. pesche says:

    Hey wallington another lovely
    bergen county town. Low taxes, great schools

  112. Clotpoll says:

    kl (94)-

    The cycle of collusion:

    crooked Realtor…crooked appraiser…crooked attorney…crooked lender.

    That’s a team that can move mountains.

  113. BklynHawk says:

    JB (112)-

    Great news. I’ll check it out on my Noki E62. I didn’t know what to do with myself for the few minutes in between trains.

    JM

  114. James Bednar says:

    Inventory continues to hit the market at a rapid pace. It’s surprising that we saw this level of inventory growth on an ‘expirations’ week.

    GSMLS – The usual counties
    4/25 – 18,472
    5/2 – 18,766 (1.6% Weekly Increase)

    NJMLS – The usual counties
    4/25 – 8,623
    5/2 – 8,763 (1.6% Weekly Increase)

  115. gary says:

    Richard,

    I’ll say this again: I…. own…. my…. house.

  116. chicagofinance says:

    Richard Says:
    May 2nd, 2007 at 5:00 pm
    i’ll make a safe bet that YOU ARE:

    anyone….fill in the blank

  117. RentL0rd says:

    JB #112
    For those who access the site via Blackberry or other PDA, we’ll be launching a mobile version in the next few days.

    If you don’t mind telling us.. who is “we”?

  118. Zac says:

    I need some professional advice.

    I signed a contract with a realtor to sell my house last week. The comission was agreed at 4%.
    Last night she calls me at home and told me when her boss saw the 4% contract he told her that they don’t do 4% anymore.
    She apologized to me and wants to bring her boss over to my house on Friday night when I get home from work to discuss the ‘problem.’
    She briefly said on the phone that they would honor the contract as it stands or they will let me back out if I wish.
    I also have a feeling from the conversation that her boss will be trying to get me to cancel the contract and sign another contract at 5%.
    I feel that if I stay with the 4% contract I will get inferior service and get blackballed by the all the agents and will never be able to get my house sold.
    Any suggestions ???

  119. AntiTrump says:

    Zac:

    Car sales men call this “Bait and Switch”. But of course Realtors would never do that.

  120. Pat says:

    A wild thang..

    Ri-i-chard, you make my heart sing…

    Na Na Na NOT.

    You make everything….GROOVY.

    Na Na Na NOT.

    WiLd THanG…I THINK i LOVE you.

    Na Na Na NOT.

    http://edisonhs.org/Music/Troggs_WildThing.wav

  121. essex says:

    Not a realtor, but a homeowner…..bought into a nice area, full of tear downs and additions….putting modest investments into my place now….trying to do good things, smart things….wondering what the market will do in two years…..previously rented for ten years in the Chicago market. Moving from that are to here was pretty interesting. Hard to find two car garage, central air, and 3 BR 2 BA for under $325k (in 2002), but did find it and like the place.

  122. skep-tic says:

    #122

    You could offer to let them out of the contract for a fee

  123. fanshawe says:

    http://gazetteextra.com/oleary050107.asp

    A Janesville real estate agent can’t believe she didn’t realize that a form on the bed at a house she showed Monday night was a woman who apparently had been dead for two weeks.

    “I’ve smelled death. I know what death smells like,” she said. “I can’t believe my sinuses were that bad.”

  124. honest-realtor says:

    This site is full of personal attacks on honest realtors. Remember, we are in the business to help you find a house. we are there to HELP!

    Also I read a lot of posts that have the wrong reading of the market pulse. Leave that to professionals like us. Market will never go down(think long term). This bottom offers an unique opportunity to buy! Don’t miss it.

  125. Pat says:

    fanshawe, just what I needed. Spew. All over.

    “Justin McKeen encouraged Chabucos-Galow to call someone.”

    Uh, like aren’t you going to be able to get your commission if the buyer is dead? What, are you going to ignore the body, just in case Justin decides to buy the place? Maybe the next-of-kin will stay away long enough for you to put a pen in the hand and finish up the closing paperwork? Let’s just call the owner “Bernie” and make the sale.

  126. honest-realtor says:

    JB is getting desperate!

  127. honest-realtor says:

    JB, I was trying to convince anybody. I am just giving out my honest opinion about the market, just as you did. You don’t have to get so “agitated”

  128. honest-realtor says:

    JB, I wasn’t trying to convince anybody

  129. Zac says:

    hey honest realtor…
    help me.

  130. honest-realtor says:

    zac, I don’t get involved if you already work with another realtor. we do value and honor ethics…..

  131. Zac says:

    read post 122

  132. Pooch123 says:

    Is honest-realtor a joke? Its tough to detect sarcasm on the internet sometimes…

  133. Pat says:

    I know. I’m all over that one being JB cause he didn’t get enough praise for his d#mn fast site.

    O.K., Grim. You did a good job. Get over it.

  134. honest-realtor says:

    pooch, I am not. It is always good time to buy. Thank you.

  135. honest-realtor says:

    A lot of my colleagues sold more than 30 houses this year so far. We still have bidding wars in some parts of Northern NJ. Don’t follow media. They don’t know the market. We are in the market everyday!!!!

  136. Pooch123 says:

    Hey there honest-realtor

    A lot of us here on this site are “in the market every day” too. Sometimes things we look at are hot, other times it’s clear they’re cold as ice. I think its almost universally agreed that things are a lot colder now than they were when JB started this blog back in, when was it, uh, September 2005?

  137. honest-realtor says:

    pooch, you are in the news, not the market. You read what the media wants you to read. Market has come down a little in some areas, but still hot in some other areas. It is all local. We are near NY! a lot of commuters are fighting for the housing here. NJ is the last one to go cold but first one to go hot(hotter). Now it is the best time to buy.

  138. RentL0rd says:

    Zac, after such a conversation you cannot trust the realtor anymore. You have to let her go.. and try to make them pay for the loss in time

  139. Pooch123 says:

    Honest-realtor, you get an A for effort, but I think most of this blogs readership doesnt buy any of the arguments you put forth (are we any closer to nyc than we were in, say, 2003? are commuters fighting harder now for housing here to justify several years of 10-20% appreciation depending on what nyc sub-market you’re in? why do you say nj will be the first one to go hot, in the 80s bubble the general nyc market was like the last part of the country to get hot, etc). In any case, I’m kinda insulted that you’re telling me I’m not “in the market.” I’m actively looking to buy (but the way things stand now will probably will renew my lease) and have been to many open houses and spoken with many realtors and sellers, in addition to reading news outlets and blogs. Anyway, I just think its kinda arrogant (and wrong) to think realtors have a monopoly on “knowing” the market.

  140. Pat says:

    But RentLord…what if Zac calls them on it?

    I’m thinking, for them to double-team him like that, there must be a buyer.

    I’d raise them.

  141. honest-realtor says:

    pooch, I didn’t mean to hurt you in anyway. Even cnn’s housing page admits that NYC area has the strongest housing market now. As I said I still see a lot of bidding wars. As to the other arguments you mentioned, think about dynamics! We have more people now in this area than many yrs back. but we are still the same size of land. Demand drives up the price….

  142. Pooch123 says:

    Honest-realtor, none of your selling points are going to convince me the market is healthy. As you said, there’s no substitute for personal experience. I’ve seen bidding wars too, but they’re definietly a lot less frequent than before. And as JB has pointed out many times, professionals are leaving the nyc and nj area in droves (ok, a bit of an exaggeration, but bear with me) and the “land shortage” isnt any more accutate than it was in 2002. And why are you citing CNN’s housing page – I thought the media didn’t know the market, only realtors did. This blog has explored these arguments many times before, I implore you to look at past pages and their comments before bringing up another selling point.

  143. Clotpoll says:

    Zac (122)-

    Is she gonna bring her boss into the picture when she’s negotiating to get you another 10-15K?

    If she’s that cavalier and careless with her money…imagine what she’s gonna do with yours.

  144. Clotpoll says:

    fanshawe (127)-

    That corpse in the bed was this year’s Spring market.

  145. Clotpoll says:

    Zac (122)-

    Get out of that thing. No agent is gonna do jack for you at 4%…and if you don’t put out at least 2.5%, nobody’s coming thru your door.

    If you’re fishin’ for tuna, gotta put more than a worm on the hook.

  146. Pooch123 says:

    So Clot, is your recommended solution (if you care about not leaving bad blood with your current agent) amending the contract to pay 4.5 percent (2.5 to buyers’ agent, 2 to existing dumbo agent?) or ditching existing dumbo agent entirely?

  147. Clotpoll says:

    ChiFi (120)-

    Seminary= good place to hide from process servers.

  148. Pat says:

    Clot, are you going with the assumption here of “never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity?”

    So, she simply stupidly agreed to 4% and then a week later the Boss comes in?

  149. Clotpoll says:

    Pooch (150)-

    Ditch the whole stinking fish. An agent doesn’t even know her office’s policies when she goes on an appointment to do a piece of business that may represent a couple months’ of living expenses? Please…

    Even more horrific is the idea that anyone in that company thinks they can go back and “un-do” a promise that was made. Nobody gets do-overs in RE…especially the people runnng the game.

    I wouldn’t want an agent or company like that if they worked for me for free. The important thing for sellers isn’t what they pay…it’s what they GET.

  150. Pat says:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2007/05/02/business/02leonhardt.html?pagewanted=1&_r=2&ref=business

    The smaller plate idea seems to be helpful for anyone like me, who struggles with portions.

  151. BLB says:

    I’m pretty sure honest-realtor is a talented troll. But assume for a moment it isn’t.

    Why would the word “realtor” need to be modified with the adjective “honest”? Does this not imply that without such modification, a realtor is without honesty?

    Just wondering.

  152. poser says:

    I received my updated mortgage statement from **** which showed an increase in my escrow payment mostly due to an increase in my property taxes. As I looked at the detail closely they added $80/month “reserve for any shortfalls”. I’ve never had a shortfall in my escrow and I’ve had my mortgage for several years now. After seeing **** poor earnings released a couple of weeks ago, I suspect they did this to improve their cash flow. Any escrow overages are refunded at the end of the year. I called and said “I’m not paying”. They promptly removed it. Thought it was interesting how the mortgage companies are trying to get as much cash as they can.

  153. Clotpoll says:

    Pat (152)-

    Pretty much. And what this situation probably boils down to is that this agent thought she had some stroke with her manager and pressed her bet that he- and the poobahs at the VP level in this company- would go along with this listing under the terms she negotiated.

    Well, they saw it and threw it back at her. When she realized she had to go back to Zac, hat in hand, she put pressure back on her manager to take some of the heat. So, an agreement that’s supposed to be about helping the seller turns into a passive/aggressive pi$$ing match between this agent and her boss.

    Doesn’t that sound like a great plan to get Zac’s house sold?

  154. Pat says:

    I dunno. A week seems like a long time to keep the fish on the hook at 4%, unless something else came into the picture.

    I guess maybe Boss doesn’t talk to his peeps every day?

  155. Newbie says:

    Betcha Honest Realtor is Richard incognito

  156. Pooch123 says:

    Nah. Richard isn’t nearly as unjustifiably cheery as honest realtor!

  157. chicagofinance says:

    Clotpoll Says:
    May 2nd, 2007 at 10:55 pm
    Seminary= good place to hide from process servers.

    clot: I would have assumed a semenary

  158. dishonest-realtor says:

    Give me your money. BOOYAAA

  159. Clotpoll says:

    ChiFi (161)-

    Uh, Beavis, that’s seminary. Huh-huh, huh-huh. Fire…yeah!

  160. chicagofinance says:

    good one, a55munch

  161. nd says:

    Steve #95 / #104:

    Thank you for your detailed assessment of Paulus Hook. I agree, it is a great neighborhood, and we would like to stay here and upgrade from our 2BR rental. 3 BRs are hard to find though, and brownstones look like they are a good alternative.

    The brownstone market in downtown JC does not seem to have cooled down. 163 Grand is an exception, that has been on the market for a while, initially for 1.3 mio. 151 Grand in comparison is also in need of renovation, but it is on a nicer block and is wider.

    Tax revaluation is definitely something to look for, even though it is unlikely that it will happen in the next four years – unless it will be mandated by Hudson county.

  162. essex says:

    I think we would all agree that as money became more expensive, and home priced continued to rise, people got priced out. There was always inventory at the higher levels, it is the middle that you now see languishing.

    When I was looking for a home I was astounded at how many places lacked what I perceive to be basics like central air conditioning or decent kitchens.

    People might be tired (or simply unable) to pay top dollar for over priced properties. That being said a decent 3 BR in NNJ can look pretty reasonable compared to what our pals in NYC pay for apts. Location, location, location.

    I do not regret buying, but the improvements are costly. I like the pride of ownership thing (even though we are essentially leasing from the bank….know what I mean?!)………..I like my house and do not regret the purchase.

    Renting always felt like I was making someone else’s payment for them.

  163. Al says:

    honest-realtor Says:
    May 2nd, 2007 at 9:50 pm
    This site is full of personal attacks on honest realtors. Remember, we are in the business to help you find a house. we are there to HELP!

    Also I read a lot of posts that have the wrong reading of the market pulse. Leave that to professionals like us. Market will never go down(think long term). This bottom offers an unique opportunity to buy! Don’t miss it

    I should have bought a bunch of land and houses in 1920, right????

    I need to get myself one of those freaking time machines….. and some old money….

    I am sorry but most realtors are right up there with new car salesmen.

    Remember, we are in the business to help you find a house. we are there to HELP!

    You are in buisness to make Money comission. If you want to help people join Red Cross…

  164. Carl says:

    If they want to help so much why not lower commission ,NYSE went to negotiated commission over 30 years ago

  165. bergenbubbleburst says:

    #145 honest realtor: Please go away, your posts are in a word, silly.

  166. bergenbubbleburst says:

    $141 honest realtor Did you have a problem when the media was pumping up the housing market?

    Please do no insult us and tell us we do not know what is transpiring in the market.

    You make your self look foolish.

  167. BuyNextYear says:

    #139 “…We are in the market everyday!”

    Isn’t it true that when one gets too close to the action, one gets cross-eyed and things get blurry?

  168. Steve says:

    Nd,

    Might want to check out the reval thread on JClist.com for the latest….

    __________________

    On Wednesday May 2, Councilman Steven Fulop will explain the Jersey City property revaluation, including what to expect and when to expect it.

    Attorney Calvin O. Trevenen will also address the community and explain what a property revaluation may mean to the Jersey City home owners. His areas of concentration are Zoning, Planning and Land Use; Real Estate Tax Appeals; and Real Estate.

    HPNA General Meeting 7:45 – 9:30 pm
    Cordero School, 158 Erie St, between Pavonia Ave and 9th St.

    Mr Trevenen and Councilman Fulop begin their presentation at 8:00PM

  169. figa says:

    Du musst ein Fachmann sein – wirklich guter Aufstellungsort, den du hast!

Comments are closed.