From BBVA USA:
Are house prices bound to adjust further? (PDF)
(The PDF contains a number of interesting charts)
After eleven years of steady increase, housing prices have shown clear signs of weakness in an environment where population and employment growth remain strong. Is it the response to a change in the fundamentals?. The financial factors are the ones moving the market.
…
Considering the diminishing housing demand and the current excess of supply, in the short term, housing prices will follow the actual decreasing trend during several more quarters. Trend analysis shows a decreasing evolution trough 2007 to finish the year with a -4.7% drop in housing prices in real terms as a national average, figure 19.Indeed, the housing price futures at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange points out to a further decline in home prices that could reach -5% year over year change in the first quarter of 2008, figure 20. Even though the lack of meaningful contracts in this market suggests not considering these futures too deeply. The fact is that there are not market operators that show optimist in prices recovering in the next quarters, based in the actual data.
However, in the medium and long term, demographic factors, employment increase and households real income growth will support residential demand. Besides, the expected downward evolution of the mortgage interest rates will permit an enlargement of the financial capacity of the families and improve housing affordability. Housing demand will re-equilibrate and adapt to the new financial conditions and historical factors will be at work again in the housing market.
From the Times of Trenton:
County taxes to increase for 8 Mercer towns
The Mercer County freeholders approved a $267.6 million budget for 2007 Tuesday night, an increase of $13.6 million over the $253.9 million approved last year.
The spending plan is projected to increase the tax rate in eight towns, keep it the same in one and decrease it in three, while the effect in one town wasn’t clear last night.
…
Municipalities with tax-rate increases are Trenton, by 6 cents per $100 of assessed property value; Hamilton, Hightstown and Princeton Borough, by 4 cents each; Lawrence, by 3 cents; East Windsor and West Windsor, by 2 cents each; and Hopewell Borough, by 1 cent.
The tax rate stayed the same in Pennington and it decreased in Princeton Township by 2 cents; Hopewell Township by 3 cents; and Ewing by 4 cents.
While Washington Township’s rate decreased dramatically, its assessments rose steeply. The overall effect of the county taxes in the township weren’t clear Tuesday night.
From the NY Times:
Romance Over, Union Chief Has Corzine’s Number
When contract negotiations between Gov. Jon S. Corzine’s administration and New Jersey’s seven major state employee unions reached a standstill last fall, one union president, Carla Katz, sent a message to the governor’s private e-mail address with a personal appeal to revive the talks.
Her union colleagues said in recent interviews that they had emphatically warned Ms. Katz, whose romance with Mr. Corzine ended with an unusual multimillion-dollar settlement in 2004, not to contact the governor away from the bargaining table for fear their history posed a conflict of interest.
…
They have repeatedly declined to disclose the total amount or specific contours of the financial agreement their lawyers negotiated upon their breakup in 2004, but lawyers familiar with the settlement and union officials who conferred with Ms. Katz during the negotiations — all of whom spoke on the condition of anonymity for fear of political retribution — disclosed for the first time that it exceeded $6 million.
From Bloomberg:
Lacker Says Mistake to Rely on Slowing Growth to Stem Inflation
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Jeffrey Lacker said it’s the central bank’s responsibility to curb inflation and it would be a mistake to rely on a slowing economy to stem price increases.
“It is central banks, not the labor market, that drive inflation down,” Lacker said in a speech to the Money Marketeers of New York University yesterday. “Clear communications accompanied by consistent actions could bring about a relatively prompt and low-cost reduction in inflation.”
Lacker, who alone voted to lift interest rates in the last four meetings of 2006, said after the speech he was “comfortable” for now that the Fed’s benchmark rate will achieve the bank’s aims. Even so, his doubt that slower growth will cause inflation to recede clashes with the outlook of policy makers such as San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen.
Lacker has repeatedly warned of the danger that inflation expectations will drift higher the longer that price gains exceed officials’ comfort zone. He said yesterday that there are “opportunities for the Fed to clarify its intentions.” The Richmond Fed chief added that the central bank’s stance on rates will be “reevaluated” as circumstances change through the year.
NJGal – Check out the NY Times Education section today. They have the NY State school scores – very helpful in identifying top notch school districts (along with other resources). The Headline is NY 8th Graders Show Gain in Reading, under that in blue is “School Scores.” If you open that up, you can pull up the school scores for elementary thru HS for the county.
GL!
From Reuters:
U.S. mortgage applications rise last week – MBA
U.S. mortgage applications rose last week for the fourth out of the past five weeks, despite a rise in long-term borrowing costs to their highest level since early February, an industry group said on Wednesday.
The Mortgage Bankers Association said its mortgage application index rose 1.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted 686.2 in the week ended May 18.
It was the highest reading since 690.5 in the March 9 week and well above 552.6 in the same week a year earlier.
Applications for both home purchases and mortgage refinancing climbed in the past week. Borrowing costs also climbed across the board.
…
The MBA’s seasonally adjusted purchase index climbed 1.3 percent to 438.1 in the week ended May 18. The group’s refinancing applications index rose 1.9 percent to a seasonally adjusted to 2,154.7.
Speed of subprime bust surprises lenders
Many mortgage lenders expected a subprime meltdown, but not one that came so fast and strong.
http://money.cnn.com/2007/05/22/real_estate/subprime_melltdown_yielded_fast_changes/index.htm?postversion=2007052215
Back when I was an underwriter, we used to all sit around the water cooler and say, “Man I can’t believe they’re doing this. It’s really going to come back and bite them in the ass”.
Nobody out there knows who the real ‘insiders’ are that they should be talking to. My guess is that everyone speaks to the head of marketing who will always say that things are great until its too late.
Could anyone be kind enough to pull an address?
MLS #2406587
Thanks.
can anyone tell me what this house sold for?
MLS# 2334469
59 Sugar Maple West Milford, NJ 07480
I think it sold in late Jan. or Feb. 2007.
Thank You-
274 ARLINGTON AVE, JERSEY CITY
Rich,
It’s a Westfield listing, Union Co? Don’t know why it came up as JC but thanks.
Then it’s under GSMLS which I have no access to.
Sorry.
ts,
637 Drake
jb
From MarketWatch:
Income checks needed for loans, regulator says
Banks need to know a potential borrower’s real — not stated — income when a subprime loan is applied for, a top U.S. banking regulator said Wednesday, as problems in the subprime mortgage market persist.
“What we need to make clear,” said Comptroller of the Currency John Dugan, “is the principle that a lender, in underwriting a mortgage loan, must assess not just a borrower’s will to make timely payments on the loan, but also his or her capacity to do so.”
In prepared remarks to the Neighborhood Housing Services of New York, Dugan said borrowers’ inflating of their income has become “widespread” in the riskier segments of the mortgage market.
Federal regulators are crafting guidance for lenders about subprime loans, which are extended to borrowers with poor credit. Subprime delinquencies have jumped in the U.S. as interest rates have climbed and house prices stopped rising.
While Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has said the problems in the market don’t appear to significantly threaten the U.S. economy, regulators are now reviewing comments about the proposed guidance.
Dugan said stated income should be part of that guidance.
For a lender to know a borrower’s capacity to repay a loan, he said, “the lender generally needs to know the borrower’s income — and I mean real, documented income, not a number that the borrower or loan originator can pull out of the air.”
From Reuters:
US regulator sees stated income subprime problem
Use of unverified income data in making mortgage loans to borrowers with poor credit histories should be the exception rather than the rule, a U.S. banking regulator said on Wednesday.
Comptroller of the Currency John Dugan said the use of a borrower’s stated income, without verification, had helped increase mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures in combination with other lax underwriting standards.
Regulators must decide whether to address the practice in in finalizing proposed guidance on subprime lending, Dugan said in remarks prepared for a speech to the Neighborhood Housing Services of New York.
…
Dugan said generally it is not the job of bank regulators to set underwriting standards, like down payment levels and debt-to-income ratios or interest rate levels.
But he said stated income is a “different kind of animal” because it invites misrepresentation and potential fraud.
Stated income helped people qualify for bigger loans and more expensive houses, and tempted brokers to push such practices to gain higher fees.
Can some one translate this articel into English, Please.
Everybody is harping on the Sub-Prime and not mentioning ALT-A. ALT-A is all stated income. Once again, everyone is asleep at the switch until the train hits something
JB,
Thanks for the address.
that Katz, that was an expensive piece for
corzine.
Banks need to know a potential borrower’s real — not stated — income when a subprime loan is applied for, a top U.S. banking regulator said Wednesday, as problems in the subprime mortgage market persist.
I agree.
I see very limited legitimate use for stated income loans. Most people are either inflating their incomes to buy more home than they can afford or they are hiding income from the IRS and therefore can’t prove their income.
Wall Street Bonuses May Break Record (Again)
New York Times
Wednesday, May 23, 2007
Wall Street appears to be gearing up for another year of fat bonuses, according to a forecast released Tuesday. Less than halfway through 2007, an executive recruiting firm, Johnson Associates, is predicting that year-end bonuses for investment bankers could exceed last year’s total by 10 percent to 15 percent in most areas.
The biggest gains were expected to flow to private equity professionals, who may see increases of 20 percent or more, Johnson’s report said.
The fast pace of deal making is part of what is driving the trend. Activity by private equity firms has been especially strong: Thomson Financial reported Tuesday that global private equity deal volume year to date is more than double where it was at this time in 2006; in the United States, the private equity deal volume has more than tripled from a year ago.
Meanwhile, securities firms generally reported strong first-quarter earnings this year, helped by investment banking as well as selling and trading of stocks and bonds. Merrill Lynch, Lehman Brothers Holdings, Bear Stearns, Goldman Sachs Group and Morgan Stanley are setting aside between 45 percent and 50 percent of revenue for compensation, MarketWatch notes.
Wall Street paid out a record $23.9 billion in bonus money last year, a 17 percent increase over the bonuses paid at the end of 2005, according to the New York State Comptroller’s office.
Reading this article made me think about all the people who harp on about the “freedom” inherent in being a homeowner.:
N.J. homeowners fight community regulation
Some say power-hungry associations often operate like draconian governments
TRENTON — Angry members of homeowners’ associations, … complained at a conference Monday that the elected boards governing their communities can behave like draconian governments.
Residents speaking out at the conference, organized by the three law schools in New Jersey, say they’re now being choked by regulation — with one detailing a ban on cooking with woks, because of the identifiable aroma that results….
Any number of complaints filled the State Museum auditorium, from no-pet rules to bans on hand-billing to the hiring of association board members’ relatives as lawyers or landscapers for the associations…
At the forum, Seton Hall University Law Professor Paula Franzese said, “Transparency must be the norm.” She quipped that the salutation has gone from “How are you doing, neighbor?” to “What are you doing, neighbor?”
“Power tends to corrupt,”said Rutgers University law professor Frank Askin. “They need some kind of oversight from the government of New Jersey.””
http://www.dailyrecord.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=2007705220330
So what exactly constitutes a verification of income?
In the past when I bought a home, I never had the need to lie about my income. But I also thought that the lender had some means to find out.
Will they now ask for W2s? What documents will they rely on?
RentL0rd,
Documentation of income usually means a paystub and maybe last year’s W-2.
Stated income just means the lender calls the employer and verifies the dates of employment and position, but nothing else
“They have repeatedly declined to disclose the total amount or specific contours of the financial agreement their lawyers negotiated upon their breakup in 2004, but lawyers familiar with the settlement and union officials who conferred with Ms. Katz during the negotiations — all of whom spoke on the condition of anonymity for fear of political retribution — disclosed for the first time that it exceeded $6 million.”
Hey, Hey, Carla, I Want To Marry You
thanks x
Carla, what a score. Your in the wrong business.
I do not undestand why he had to pay her anything, they were not married;what kind of nonsense is this?
Don’t Have the Money for your mortgage payment, charge it….rob Peter to pay Paul
————-
American Express Co. card members will now be able to make monthly home mortgage payments with their credit card and earn rewards points in the process, the company said Wednesday.
The Express Rewards Mortgage program comes with a one-time customer enrollment fee of $395.
American Home Mortgage Corp. will be the first lender to participate in the program that the New York-based card firm is calling a first of its kind for the credit card industry. Currently, the offer is only applicable for eligible prime loans.
x-underwriter Says:
May 23rd, 2007 at 8:58 am
Everybody is harping on the Sub-Prime and not mentioning ALT-A. ALT-A is all stated income. Once again, everyone is asleep at the switch until the train hits something
X: yes and no…….it’s there, and you are correct, but don’t go all Roubini on us
From The Economist:
Worried about credit risk? You should fret more about pension funds than banks
http://www.economist.com/opinion/displaystory.cfm?story_id=E1_JTJDRQV
REMEMBER the days when loans were discussed over lunch at the Rotary Club and sealed with a handshake? Pretty soon, the idea of a banker knowing the name of the person he is lending to—let alone inside details of his credit history—could be as quaint a feature of banking’s past as bowler hats and Bonnie and Clyde.
Thanks to technological and financial wizardry, loans are now made with little contact between borrower and lender, and are shuffled around the financial system like so many cards at a poker table. …international investment banks such as Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank have become vast financial-liquidity factories, turning loans into tradable securities, selling them on and earning record profits as a reward.
Yet just because credit risk is more evenly spread does not necessarily mean the system as a whole is safe. Indeed, it may be prone to less frequent, but more violent, shocks, spreading from individual banks throughout the financial system. Thanks to the relentless dealmaking between financial institutions, if (or rather when) liquidity dries up, risks that the banks think they have outsourced to hedge funds, insurance companies and pension funds might cascade back onto their books.
Three forces have enabled the biggest banks to boost the volume and complexity of financial instruments, and the speed at which they are traded. Each has an element of recklessness. The first is the explosion of credit derivatives, which protect buyers from the risk of default…but could require huge payouts if markets ever seize up.
…
The second is the rating agencies, the new arbiters of credit risk. Banks … have blithely passed this responsibility on to outsiders, such as Moody’s, Standard & Poor’s and Fitch Ratings.
…
Third, the ability of banks to sell their loans may well have led to a lowering of lending standards. Why double-check somebody’s books if you are selling on the risk in a matter of days? That became painfully evident this year after American finance companies lent to needy borrowers with poor credit records in the “subprime” mortgage market. Borrowing is also getting easier for private-equity firms, one of which this week threw yet more caution to the wind by proposing to buy Chrysler). Banks have started lending to them with worryingly easy-going covenants, which give lenders scant power to intervene if a loan risks going bad.
Privately, virtually every investment banker expresses nervousness about the hard-to-quantify “tail risks” in the new banking model. Some have built up plump liquidity cushions in case of disaster. But what about the regulators?
The main answer is the Basel 2 banking accord, …The danger, however, is that by focusing on the health of banks, the regulators have shunted problems into less supervised realms of the financial system, such as the pensions industry. If pension-fund trustees, with less experience than banks in judging credit risk, have allowed the wrong investments, the consequences would be grave indeed.
officially here
sticky for refi’s? must be a catch….use AmEx or Preferred partner for mortgage?
http://home3.americanexpress.com/corp//pc/2007/ahmc_print.asp
The AMEX rewards program is surely a joke, right?. At first, pay $395 to join. At 1% rebate (for flier miles, etc), one needs to charge $39,500 using the AMEX card just to break even. Assume a $3,000 monthly mortgage, and that’s 13 months of payments. A $2000 monthly mortgage is almost 20 months to break even.
This is surely a way to tempt people already struggling with cash-flow (even though they’re prime) to get an extra 20 days of grace credit. They’re counting on just one delay by a customer in paying off the balance on the credit card, and they have their ‘AMEX anaconda’ grip all over them.
Eventually, Who is absorbing the 5% merchant fee AMEX charges?
She must know where the skeletons are buried. How else do you explain $6M and lawyers involvement for a relationship that didn’t last little more than a year and did not involve marriage?
New Today! Paulson Now Sees “Major Housing Correction”
http://www.paperdinero.com/BNN.aspx?id=194
Excerpt features Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson discussing his assessment of the housing decline and his outlook for the future. Paulson suggests that the US has experienced a “major” housing correction that was inevitable after years of historic gains. “That correction has now been significant, we think it is near the bottom, it will take a while to work its way through the system.” Unfortunately, Paulson only reiterates the same guidance he offered last year prior to the housing market taking another major leg down.
Originally aired on: 5/21/2007 on New Hour
Running Time: 1 minutes 29 seconds
chicagofinance Says:
don’t go all Roubini on us
I’m sorry, who again is Roubini?
never mind,
c’mon I’m just gettin’ caught up in the booya bob frenzy
I approved a lot of those deals and believe me, the income isn’t there to support the debt
Grim (2)-
Wow! 6 MIL for a few dates and a little sheet hockey?
Hope Corzine got some sort of “friends with benefits” clause in that breakup agreement (how would you describe that in contractual terms?).
Here’s a visual: Corzine, jacked up on Vicodin, getting a sponge bath from Carla…with Corey Booker waiting for her in the other room.
x (33)-
Moammar Quadaffi’s twin, separated at birth.
x-underwriter Says:
May 23rd, 2007 at 12:08 pm
chicagofinance Says:
don’t go all Roubini on us
I’m sorry, who again is Roubini?
http://www.rgemonitor.com/redir.php?sid=1&tgid=10000&cid=195952
BTW – Roubini’s June 2007 hard landing has been pushed out to 2008.
chicagofinance Says:
BTW – Roubini’s June 2007 hard landing has been pushed out to 2008.
So has the NAR’s housing market recovery
#38 chgo: Why?
I’ve been watching it too. It’s actually a good thing that the economy isn’t tanking yet. That’s a real fear of mine. We’d rather have an orderly adjustment rather than a huge bomb that wrecks the economy
clot in action
http://www.gofish.com/player.gfp?gfid=30-1115294
I keep hearing home price dropping, but I hardly notice any drop in price in the areas that I am looking, I am trying to look for a house near areas of Millburns, Maplewood and Livingston. Houses in those areas are still so freaking expensive, I do notice that there are more houses on the market now, but the prices are not much difference from a year ago. I keep hearing about home price dropping, and I am not seeing it, it is most frustrating.
I keep hearing about home price dropping, and I am not seeing it, it is most frustrating.
While you have quite a bit of visibility into asking prices, how much visibility do you have into sale prices? Or are you assuming that homes are selling for asking? Unless you monitor inventory closely, and I mean on a daily basis, you really only have insight into the same stale, overpriced listings that have been stagnating on the market for months.
jb
JB:
I don’t trust realtors, I usually get my information of the sale prices from websites such as http://www.coldwellbankers.com or http://www.zillows.com, I like coldwellbanker better because they show you all the recent sales in the neighborhood. Base on the information I got from there, I am not seeing any significant drops in those areas. Do you have any other sources where you get your information from? Please share it.
njhousehunter
Still do not undestand why she gets 6 million? And amidst all this she stil heads a union that negogiates with the Corzine Admin for contracts etc.
It just never ends in the PRNJ, Whitman, Mc Greevey, and now Corzine.
We truly are a laughing stock.
#47 njhousehunter Coldwell Banker is a realtor.
I have not noticed much dropping either, sellers are fing really stubborn! I guess they dont mind waiting a yr to sell their house.
#47 njhouse: How recent ar the closed sales for these areas?
$6mil is certainly more than I can lay my hands on, but I would not bbe surprised to find out Corzine’s had some weeks in his career where he took in that kind of money.
Just to be clear, that doesn’t make it any better, just easier to see how he could do it.
The housing market in prime areas of NJ is still not too weak, people who are at all realistic ie 2005 prices or less will still sell and fast too, there is tons of inventory but it is overpriced junk(moreso than usual). I does not please me at all I think it is absurd but it is preventing the economy from taking the proper path. NYC/Prime suburbs are defying the market conditions thus fueling the inflation further and increasing the negative fall out when eventually collapses and trust me it will it always does.
Also Clotpoll, Booker swings both ways if you know what I mean, so it is unlikely.
njhousehunter and Larry G,
It’s probably also that a lot of sellers don’t have much equity in their homes, so they can’t lower the price because they’d be writing a check at closing to the realtor and the mortgage company. Folks who bought in the last few years with little down don’t have much equity and others who may have been in their homes for many years, withdrew equity to put all the additions and remodeling into their homes. How else do you think most folks paid for it.
Clot thank you, I needed a good laugh.
Your visual is priceless!
“Corey Booker waiting for her in the other room.”
A couple of months ago I remember a thread where the discussion was about when the sellers would start to capitulate. My call then was at the end of May. We’re about to find out how good my crystal ball is.
Roubini/Qaddafi…separated at birth?
You decide:
http://media.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/images/I34646-2004Mar05
I don’t trust realtors, I usually get my information of the sale prices from websites such as…
The Star Ledger also has a very good website that tracks sales & property taxes & a number of other statistics:
http://www.nj.com/news/bythenumbers/
not sure if anyone mentioned/noticed it yet, but the asbury park press just updated their data universe site to now include NJ state pension information. for anyone who may be interested.
CR pays close attention to the MBA data and a few weeks ago he commented that the index seems to have separated from its typical performance as:
1. Lenders who were not part of the index have gone out of business raising the percentage of applications going to the monitored institutions.
and
2.As potential borrowers get turned down at one lender (where they would have previously obtained their loan) they make applications elsewhere that gets picked up in the data, but does not increase the number of loans made or the amount of money lent.
Just some things to keep in mind.
or i guess i should call it what they do “NJ retirees 2007”
Lindsey,
good point, especially with memorial day this weekend.
does anyone know how busy memorial day weekend is traditionally, as far as showings, open houses?
if buyers aren’t snapping up houses by next tues, then your point might just happen.
3b(former bergenbubbleburst):
Depending on the area, for millburn and living, and maplewood, the most recent sale posted is december last year. you are right, coldwellbanker is a realtor, what I mean is at least I can look up information on my own on their website. Some realtors hide those information from you.
Houses are tanking and many homeowners are in deep dooodooo.
Just check out the county records shows all the refi’s home equities and dirt on the neighbors.
Things are really really bad and the MISERY level is running to record levels in 2008.
Bid less and do not trust anything a starving ramen eating realtor says.
M_I_S_E_R_Y
Poser: #55
You are right, the best thing to do is probably just keep waiting, I don’t think we are anywhere near the bottom.
rent #59
thanks for the starledger site.
#63 poser; From my own observations, Memorial Day weekend ahas always been dead in years past.
You can see this reflected in the Sunday real estate sections of the the Record and Star Ledger.
#64 njhouse: I belive things have changed a lot from the end of last year to now.
There was definitely some activity in the early part of 07, in the areas I follow, but by March it had all seemed to die out.
njhousehunter (64)-
“Some realtors hide those (sic) information from you.”
Please explain to me how I benefit from trying to hide easily-obtained public records from you.
On another topic, postings seem to be bery light this week on this forum. Anybody else notice this? maybe lack of economic data until tomorrow?
Clotpoll: #70
No offense, you can easily get information on a used car if you take the time to look too. However, that doesn’t mean everyone is smart enough to walk away when a used car saleman is trying to sell a lemon.
#71, blame it on the nice weather.
#73 dreamtheaterr
“blame it on the nice weather”
That will be NAR’s next excuse…the weather is SO nice that folks are busy doing things other than buying houses!
dreamtheater #32:
The Amex card is a dinosaur — surviving on decades-old cache and status. They keep sending applications with an annual fee of $75, if I recall. Right in the trash every time.
How about that 10Y..
jb
Un,
You think $75 is bad, how about paying a $2,500 annual fee for having the luxury of carrying this in your pocket..
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Centurion_Card
Rent #59
yes indeed, thanks for that page. I can’t believe I wasn’t there already, it’s great.
I know the data lags, but my favorite stat is 0 sales so far in Spring Lake (Jan. and Feb. according to the site). Most other pricey towns in Monmouth have seen some action, but I get the feeling 07 is going to be a very tough year at the Shore for the high end.
Also, I know it’s mostly in hibernation, but Little Silvered over at the JerseyShorebubbleblog did not that his favorite Rumson house from 05 is back on the market.
OLP in 05: $939K
Current LP: $679k
Paging Booya Bob…
I was looking at a house with the listing agent yesterday. He started off saying he lives two houses down the street. After every description of the house he would compare it with his own house – at first I thought it was amusing. Here he was trying to sell a house and all he wants to do is talk about himself. From what I noticed, realtors rarely talk about themselves. And then when were almost done, he says.. “I am putting my house for sale in a couple of weeks.. are you interested?”
Post #79
note, not, not
30-year bond just crossed 5% on the yield.
This should pressure mortgage rates if these
levels hold, and start to brake a market struggling to get out of first gear.
No capitulation yet, not even close. Overpriced asking and stale inventory that sits is the rule, as JB mentioned. One split level I saw last August expired over the winter and just came back with a 30k price increase. Another small 2/1 also did the same. That’s why they call it your “dream” home, because it comes with a dream price.
If you want to get rich ladies, forget frugality and living below your means–date the governor.
njhousehunter,
I’m in my second home and I’ve got some doozies to tell when dealing with realtors in the past. Some were very nice but most of them didn’t know how to wear a poker face through the lies. My wife referred to one woman realtor as “Carrie’s mom” from the movie “Carrie” because she looked and acted like… well, Carrie’s mom. Lol!
njhousehunter, LarryG, Poser, etc.
I check sold data daily via tax records and zillow (remarkably up-to-date). I agree, it is frustrating and I see very very few sales in the Union County towns I am following. The sales, however, are typically at peak prices or more. The very few homes that are selling are the cream of the crop. That is, relative to other homes in the area at similar asking prices, they are mostly renovated. There have been a few exceptions but there is always a back story with the exceptions (e.g. a very overpriced home on a beautiful lot was recently purchased by a local home developer so he could build his OWN house on the land. When you are charged 0% markup on a new home and are flush with cash from the 01-05 boom, I guess you can spend a little more on land.)
I have started to focus much more time on where I will be renting in NJ come this fall. Many sellers have demonstrated they can leave their homes vacant for 6 months, 9 months, almost a year now. I believe in the long run, I will have more patience than they will. In any case, I can rent a much nicer place than I can afford to buy right now.
UnRealtor Says:
May 23rd, 2007 at 2:16 pm
dreamtheater #32:
The Amex card is a dinosaur — surviving on decades-old cache and status. They keep sending applications with an annual fee of $75, if I recall. Right in the trash every time.
UnReal: just because you fail to see the value, does not signify that AmEx is not a tremendously successful company – even if you think the value proposition is fleeting – the market strongly provides prima facie evidence to the contrary
From Reuters:
Greenspan sees dramatic drop in Chinese stocks
Former U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said on Wednesday he feared a “dramatic contraction” in Chinese stocks but said the global economy may be able to shrug off a drop in asset prices.
Addressing a meeting in Madrid via teleconference, Greenspan said the recent boom in Chinese stocks could not last.
“It is clearly unsustainable,” he said “There’s going to be a dramatic contraction at some point.”
Greenspan also said a correction could cause problems for Chinese personal wealth. Some analysts have speculated that the Chinese government could be tempted to dip into its reserves to bail out any stung investors and avoid social unrest.
twice shy Says:
May 23rd, 2007 at 2:23 pm
30-year bond just crossed 5% on the yield.
This should pressure mortgage rates if these
levels hold, and start to brake a market struggling to get out of first gear.
2x Shy: 30-Y fixed mortgage is priced off the 10Y UST due to the consistently implied duration
Buy and hold investors use the 30Y UST, it is less liquid, and not really a good barometer anymore. The Treasury killed it when they stopped issuing it during the Clinton years, and it has failed to recapture prominence.
From Herb Greenberg at MarketWatch:
Builders Laugh at Paulson?
Recent comments by Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson that the housing slump is largely contained apparently didn’t get lost on builders. As the story goes, CSFB analyst Ivy Zelman told her company’s sales force today that builders attending the Builder 100 Conference in San Diego laughed when the comments were mentioned as if Paulson didn’t know what he was talking about. How did I hear? From a legitimate and well-regarded trader who heard it directly from his CSFB broker after Zelman reportedly broadcast the story on the CSFB Squawk Box. Zelman hasn’t returned my call.
I’d never pay the fee for my personal use, but I have to admit that the customer service for my corporate AmEx is way above anything I’ve ever experienced with another credit card (not sure if the same customer service exists for consumer cards).
If you want a cash back card, I recommend Discover. It has no cachet, but it is a very good deal
Just some anecdotal experience about sellers lowering their prices…
We are currently in negotiations with the seller on a FSBO. They listed for $419,900, and after a couple offers and counter-offers they are willing to go down to $396k. They bought the house in Feb 2002 for $210,000 and all of the improvements (kitchen and family room addition, nice deck) were done by the previous owners. It seems like sellers believe outrageous levels of appreciation are the norm, and they shouldn’t settle for less. We are prepared to ride out the storm and wait for the seller to wake up and smell the coffee! At our last offer of $380,000 they would still realize $170,000 in appreciation…give me a break!
AK
New-to-NJ,
They’re nuts. Move on and wish them luck.
New-to-NJ,
re #91…in West Orange???
individual japanese shorting on Yen?
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=aYiePMfkoWW0&refer=currency
Just perused Realtor.com listings in Hoboken saw two listings for places that were for sale last Fall that have been relisted at 10K higher this Spring. Ingenious.
…or Dunellen???
abject stupidity reigns – these people should be shot on sight
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aArHpY2P.9EQ&refer=us
Dunellen. Are you familiar with the listing?
I would love to hear input from someone who is familiar with the market in that area. The realtor we were working with was nice enough to give us the MLS data on everything that has sold in Dunellen in the last 3 months, so we have looked at comps. The sellers have stated that there is no house that is comparable to theirs, so they disagree with our statement that $380k is reasonable based on recent sales.
“The point is, in tight markets you definitely want to have consumer protections on the books,” she told reporters today. “The tighter the market, the more chance there is to have consumers impacted by a manipulation of price.”
STUPID IDIOT
I am seeing houses come back on the market that did not sell in the Summer/Fall of 05!!. Some at the same price, and some 15 to 25k higher.
I know it can be extremely frustrating, but you just have to laugh, there is nothing else you can do.
We are into June of 07, and many of these bozos still do not get it. Just wait, time is on our side, thse POS’s are not going anywhere.
#98 New; tell them to go scratch, your offer is more than fair. Wait it out, time is on you side.
I am gonna try a little Bob here and say do not feed their habit. BOYYYYYAAAAAAAAAA!!
ChiFi #88,
You’re right of course. Now I know why you go by ChicagoFinance. I just highlighted the 30-yr as it broke 5%. But rates are up across the spectrum, with the 10 yr closing at 4.86%, which is linked to mortage rates and will pressure them before long if this keeps up.
What happened? Did the Chinese trade reps talk tough or something?
JB #77, from your link:
“From 1 May 2007, there is a $5,000 one-time initiation fee for new card holders, plus the annual fee of $2,500.”
Seems like a good deal.
#77, JB:
Went on vacation once with a friend who has one of those AmEx Black Cards, and he used it at a hotel we stayed at. I can see how these cards might be worth it if you’re into people acting like your slaves. Not being used to that sort of servile behavior among hotel staff, I found the entire experience a little unnerving.
Spike in 10 yr because traders have reduced the odds of any fed easing this year, and because of comment yesterday by the Fed president Lacker.
Basically the feeling is the fed is not going to cut rayes to save the housing market.
IMHO they will cut in mid to late 08 and 09, to help clean up the housing mess.
It has always been my contention that the Fed wants the bubble to pop;ultimately we will end up in a stronger position, once the trash is taken out so to speak.
chicagofinance: #99
if not so, why is the gas price so damn high, last year they blame everything for high gas prices, this year, no explaination, crude oil price is lower than last year, yet gas price is higher.
Trible B #105,
I thought no ease for ’07 was already priced in? Bonds are selling off because Lacker shoots his mouth off? He does that with more regularity than my high fiber cereal provides.
I’m looking for the first 25 BP cut 1Q ’08. Not sure they want the housing bubble to pop, but a prick will give them enough drag on inflation to declare victory and open the spigot.
>>637 Drake
you don’t want to live over there. area doesn’t even resemble westfield.
>>The housing market in prime areas of NJ is still not too weak, people who are at all realistic ie 2005 prices or less will still sell and fast too, there is tons of inventory but it is overpriced junk(moreso than usual)
exactly what i’m seeing. there was better choices and pricing last year than this year, at least in my neck of the woods. not sure why.
New Home sales expected to be flat. will they be slightly up or down? any takes
>>It’s probably also that a lot of sellers don’t have much equity in their homes, so they can’t lower the price because they’d be writing a check at closing to the realtor and the mortgage company.
i don’t buy it. a quick sampling i did of houses in my parts show people should have plenty of equity. we don’t know how much but it’s unrealistic to assume a majority of people owe more than the house is worth.
>>My call then was at the end of May. We’re about to find out how good my crystal ball is.
buzz. try again.
#107 twice; There werre still many hoping for a rate cut in June, or if not by June then definitely by August, and goldman was calling for a 75bp reduction by year end of 07.
I said it at the begining of this year, there will be no rate cut in 07, and there wont be
“it’s unrealistic to assume a majority of people owe more than the house is worth.”
unrealistic to assume a majority of people would sell in this market. May be its the monority which counts here
>>How about that 10Y..
what about it? i see nothing unusual going back the last few years. it’s been as low as 4.4 and as high as 5.25. break out above 5.25 and maybe we have something.
>>You think $75 is bad, how about paying a $2,500 annual fee for having the luxury of carrying this in your pocket..
i had one for 2 years. unless you do a lot of international travel and take advantage of the perks it’s nothing but a status symbol, and expensive one to boot. the black color is cool though.
Richard Says:
May 23rd, 2007 at 5:04 pm
>>How about that 10Y..
what about it? i see nothing unusual going back the last few years. it’s been as low as 4.4 and as high as 5.25. break out above 5.25 and maybe we have something.
Reech: I agree.
njhousehunter Says:
May 23rd, 2007 at 4:38 pm
chicagofinance: #99
if not so, why is the gas price so damn high, last year they blame everything for high gas prices, this year, no explaination, crude oil price is lower than last year, yet gas price is higher.
njhh: your question is not to the same point as my prior comment. However, please remember that the crude oil market and gasoline market are related, but they are not the same. Crude oil is refined into gasolone, but also many other things. As an input to gasoline, crude’s price is important, but so is refinery capacity as well as stockpiles of refined gasoline available. Gasoline is also regional, so CA and the Midwest gasoline have distinct formualtions from what is sold here.
Review this…..
U.S. Gasoline Rises to Record AAA, Energy Dept. Say (Update1)
May 14 (Bloomberg) — Gasoline in the U.S. climbed to a record at the pump on low inventories and increased demand, reports from and AAA, the nation’s biggest motoring club, and the U.S. Energy Department showed.
The national average for regular gasoline rose 0.9 cent to $3.073 a gallon yesterday, AAA said today on its Web site. The price has climbed 32 percent this year and now exceeds the high set Sept. 5, 2005, after Hurricane Katrina damaged Gulf Coast refineries.
Prices rose during a three-month decline in U.S. inventories, which were 8 percent below the five-year average in the week ended May 4, according to a report last week from the Energy Department. Demand for gasoline so far this year is up 1.8 percent from the same period last year.
“Gasoline supplies are going to remain low going into the summer and we still haven’t reached the hurricane season,” said Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates LLC, a consulting company based in Houston. “There is no respite for the consumer. I can’t paint a very pretty picture.”
[edit]
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=10348014
2x shy (83)-
The 30 cracked 5%…but are you looking at the 2 year? Those short rates are dropping. When the yield curve comes off the inversion and normalizes (I believe within 4-10 weeks), you’ll see a rate cut: the first of 3-4. The catlaysts will be a Q1 GDP downward revision and an utterly horrendous Q2 GDP (below 1%).
As far as mortgages go, I do somewhat agree that the conventional 30 year- linked to the 10 yr UST- will come under pressure. But, the significantly-lower short maturities may make spreads attractive enough to bring ARMs (yikes!) back into play.
I think by end July- mid-August, we’re in for another dead cat bounce, like the Jan-Feb one. Then, more digging for the bottom out thru year’s end.
My .02 USD.
Un (75)-
I dare you to short American Express.
I think by end July- mid-August, we’re in for another dead cat bounce, like the Jan-Feb one. Then, more digging for the bottom out thru year’s end.
Clot – so when is the earliest you would suggest people buy? November/December or not until 2008?
When the yield curve comes off the inversion and normalizes (I believe within 4-10 weeks), you’ll see a rate cut: the first of 3-4. The catlaysts will be a Q1 GDP downward revision and an utterly horrendous Q2 GDP (below 1%).
It wouldn’t surprise me. 30% of the core inflation statistic is based on “owner equivalent rent”. With a record number of vacancies and a number of foreclosed homes returning to the rental market, rental prices will come under downward pressure. This will take the heat off the core inflation statistic and give the Fed a green light to lower rates should they choose to do so.
When the yield curve comes off the inversion and normalizes (I believe within 4-10 weeks), you’ll see a rate cut: the first of 3-4.
One hell of a bet.
Fed funds futures are pricing a roughly 90% implied probability of the Fed keeping rates where there are until August, not to mention a 95% or so probability of a hold at the July meeting. The probability of a cut in August has significantly decreased from the 30% or so chance of a cut in early March. The probability still favors a hold until as far out as September.
I think that we’re going to have to see one hell of a downward revision to GDP, not to mention Q2 to come in just as miserably to see at least a single cut on the horizon, let alone 3-4. Especially with inflation (slowflation) being as stubborn as it has been.
Do you really think the Fed puts much weight on the yield curve for policy decisions?
jb
#111,
It’s not unrealistic. you also have to add the realtor’s commission and the realty transfer taxes to the equation, so yes it’s possible that some sellers may be facing a situation of getting zero cash at closing. It’s more than just a remote possibility, and until we can run a report that has the facts of each and every home that’s selling don’t be so quick to dismiss someone else’s comments, as unrealistic.
Renting (123)-
Excellent point. It’s also no secret that putting tons of corn in our gas tanks (via ethanol) has triggered the food price inflation in the CPI.
There’s already plenty of Fed chatter over the moderating PCE deflator- Bernanke’s pet stat- and you just can’t ignore the fact that the consumer is becoming very cranky and definitely spending less these days.
Finally, Iowa, the farm belt and mineral/mining states don’t want to hear about higher interest rates and strong dollars. Just keep bombing the heck out of the greenback and export every rock, weed and seed you can rip out of the ground.
Guess where the primary season starts…and guess whom all those candidates don’t want to cross? Think Bernanke isn’t political? Think again.
#120 Agree to disagree Clot, No rate cut this year. If the economy is as dependent on housing as you believe, then this country is in serious,serious trouble.
We have to find another game to replace housing and debt, its not sustainable, and we are seeing that now.
The Fed is not going to save housing, because housing is/was a big part of the problem. What will save housing is a drop in prices;the return to affordability.
The asking prices out there now are still laughable. Will ther be casualities, of course, thats the way these bubble play out.
No rate cut this year. 1st quarter 08 at the earliest.
Bernanke is no where near as political, or for that matter as mythical as Greenspan was.
He becomes mythical when he can claim that he cleand up the mess that unfortunately Greenspan did so much to create.
Grim (124)-
No, I don’t think it’s the yield curve that influences the Fed. They’ve historically done what they want during many periods of inversion.
However, there’s one thing the Fed NEVER does…and that’s buck the direction of short-term rates, especially when those yields drop fast. I think we’re very close to the point where they’ll have no choice. And, it’s a sensible one; all the maturities from 10 years out will remain under heavy pressure; the Chinese are off them, and no other big buyers have a taste for ’em, either.
All the action is in the short maturities now…that means rates come down.
3b (127)-
The rate cut is not a housing-centric issue. They don’t need to cut to save housing…it’s more of a cut to bolster the consumer in general.
Like it or not, consumer spending is 70% of our economic activity. Cap ex and corporate spending are actually very lively now, but the consumer is the “elephant in the room”…and that elephant needs a little more feed.
And, let’s get our blinders off when it comes to Bernanke. Have we all forgotten that he came from the Council of Economic Advisers (a political appointment)? Or his solid Republican credentials?
Just because the guy is soft-spoken doesn’t mean he can’t play the game. You think he’s gonna let the economy grind to a halt going into an election cycle? He’s a history nut; all he has to do is look at what happened to Bush’s dad to remember what the result is when the economy gets bound-and-gagged in an election year.
Possible (122)-
I don’t make blanket calls. When to buy is an individual decision, and everyone’s personal circumstances differ.
I think occupancy horizon is much more important than waiting to catch an absolute bottom in prices. If you expect to be in your home only 2-3 years, you’re crazy to buy now. If your situation is more settled (looking at 5+ years in your purchase), there are some opportunities out there now.
Visuals are always helpful, here is my own tracker.
https://njrereport.com/files/YieldCurve.xls
I’ve got the 2y/10y as well as the 3m/10y spreads graphed.
jb
“When the yield curve comes off the inversion and normalizes (I believe within 4-10 weeks), you’ll see a rate cut: the first of 3-4”
That is one hell of a bet….
;)
SAS
sas (133)-
I didn’t think this three weeks ago. But the recent UST moves (and the recent consumer swoon) are a clear indicator to me.
I think the “bet” is believing that the Fed has an appetite for staying the course and letting the economy grind to a halt.
Another good link to keep handy:
http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/directors_charts/ipage19.pdf
jb
feds wont change rates unless there is a compelling reason for it. None so far. rates will stay that way for a long time.
Clot – thanks for the reply. I didn’t mean to ask for a blanket call. I should have worded more specifically re: when you thought the market would stablize one way or the other given your prediction of another bounce, which surprised/depressed me.
re my own post at 57, Poser at 63 and Richard at 112.
Because I am currently out of commission with a back injury I have waaaaay too much time to spend here so I decided to try and find exactly what I said a couple of months ago.
Here is my actual call, from a March 10th post. the header on the main page is:
NJ home prices down 10-20%
Lindsey Says:
March 10th, 2007 at 8:52 am
…
As much as it might seem a copout, I think there’s no point in trying to tell 2007’s story before Memorial Day.
If both March and April disappoint significantly (I suspect they will, but Lord knows I’ve been wrong before) then you will hear the pain in people’s voices throughout the summer.
If March and April are so-so to good (within 10% of 06) then the balls remain in the air, but there’s definitely a guy standing over there with some knives who wants to liven up the juggling act.
No matter what, September is not good, because the knives will be out and the jugglers are going to be way too tired.
(I corrected a typo in the last graph. in the original it says “they knives.”)
So just to be clear, my call was and is that disappointing numbers in March (we had that) and April (we’ll get the official info friday) will be the catalyst for sellers to begin rethinking their asking prices and you will be able to actually see the declines clearly in September.
For absolute full disclosure In an earlier post (I’m not sure if it was in Feb or Jan.,I’m on a fair amount of medication) I put the time frame for noticeable declines in Oct/Nov.
I’m willing to hang my hat on that 3 month window as the time when you see the real cuts/moves in sellers asking prices.
Again, to be clear, no miraculous plunge immediately after Memorial Day, but during the summer sellers are going to recognize the change in the market, and by the fall will act accordingly.
possible (137)-
As BC and others have stated here many times, RE busts are characterized by a “stairstep” downward pattern of decline, stabilization…then further decline. This pattern is interrupted by false rallies and dead cat bounces; at intermittent points, gangs of buyers sense opportunities and trigger an unsustainable flurry of activity.
I’d say two things here that probably any investment professional would advise for any asset class:
1. It is unwise- and dangerous- to attempt to call or time market bottoms.
2. Healthy markets don’t normally decline in a straight line. If the asset is cratering to China, you might want to take a look at whether you want to own it…at ANY price.
Lindsey (138)-
Darn good call…for a man on Vicodin.
We have to find another game to replace housing and debt, its not sustainable, and we are seeing that now.
Dow Jones? Alternative Energy? China?
Black card
I will bet a beer at the next meetup, Warren Buffet does not have one of these.
He might have a AMEX Coporate card. But it seems stupid status sybols are not for him.
once again — “cory booker…..other room.”
Clot… I am running out of Comet to scour that image off my cerebral cortex (and retinas!) eeeesh…
BTW. is it memorial day yet??? is lowballing out of the question?
sl
sl (143)-
They haven’t even started to sweat. That house is still available…didn’t I tell you they were bluffing?
Just stay disciplined and be ready. No need to appear anxious. I’d bet a healthy sum you’re the only buyer on their horizon.
Why don’t people just understand, house values rising 80-100% in 5 years is INSANE!
#130 Cot; History buff or not Clot, he is not going to cut this year, and agian I say if the consumer who has pulled back a little, and not yet totally retrenched, and they need another hit (interest rate cut) to get them spending again? Scary stuff.
Bernanke can sya what he wants, but he is far more concerned with the structural imbalances in our economy, then with the health of the consumer.
There has to be cleansing process so to speak.
3b,
Methadone economics..
jb
#98,
I don’t know much about Dunellen…but I had a similar experiance with a listing (incidentally for the same price) in West Orange. The sellers attitude actually caused me to reduce my offered price each time his “other intereted party” disappeared.
My limited advice however would be – don’t pay a cent more than what makes you comfortable. Sometimes if you “love” a house and can afford it…by all means make a strong offer. Otherwise just offer a price at which you would feel you got a deal if you got the house.
New Today! Housing Bubble Hits Home
http://www.paperdinero.com/BNN.aspx?id=198
Segment chronicles some of the aspects of the housing mania and subsequent decline that we now know all too well. Features a series of anecdotal stories of personal gloom and doom while tracking a series of “homeowners” from 2005 to today.
Originally aired on: 4/27/2007 on NOW
Running Time: 11 minutes 18 seconds
With the strong housing numbers ,NO fed rate cut . Time looks ripe to start buying homes again ,I have seen quite a few under contract signs popping up.This puts a floor under the falling home prices.deman will pick up from here .
#150 Louis are you on crack/cocaine, or are you really that ignorant. Let me try to educate you little one.
1. No fed rate cut is not a positive for housing, its status quo;manby wer hoping fro a reat cut to spur lower interest rates especially short term to try and make houses “affordable” to first time hoem buyers.
2. UC does not mean sold. Many of thse UC’s yous ee come back on the market once the so called buyers find out they no longer qualify for mtgs. I have a family member who is in the business (real estate closings).
3. Demand appears to be strong these numbers are volatile, but the MOM price fell 11%,and the YOY price fell 10.9%, let me repeat prices fell.
The demand increased because the prices were lowered, simple stuff, you really should be able to understand that.
Prospective buyers will wait for additional price decreases, and many are coming.
There is no compelling reason to buy now, the longer they wait, the more they will save.
What this does is put pressure on existing home owners, used houses if you will to drop prices.
How you can possibly say these numbers will put a floor on prices is truly amazing.
Please, please do not give this opinion to family and friends or clients; I have a sneaking suspicion you are in fact a cluless realtor.
Please think before you post. No little one this is just the real start of real declines in prices now;its just starting to get fun.