This is the time and place to post observations about your local areas, comments on news stories or the New Jersey housing market, open house reports, etc. If you have any questions you wanted to ask earlier in the week but never posted them up, let’s have them. Also a good place to post suggestions, requests for information, criticism, and praise.
For readers that have never commented, there is a link at the top of each message that is typically labelled “[#] Comments“. Go ahead and give that a click, you might be missing out on a world of information you didn’t know about. While you are there, introduce yourselves to everyone.
For new readers that have only read the messages displayed on the main page, take a look through the archives, a substantial amount of information has been put online in the past year. The archives can be accessed by using the links found in the menus on the right hand side of the page.
Mortgage rates hit 8 mnth high. Long live The Donald.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/7148582/
Funds attack banks’ aid for subprime borrowers
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/3ae806a2-0fa6-11dc-a66f-000b5df10621.html
Hedge funds are attacking bank decisions that help delinquent US mortgage borrowers remain in their homes in a move that pits some of the country’s richest people against its least well-off.
The dispute centres on derivatives contracts that pay money to investors when bonds backed by subprime mortgage loans – extended to people with past credit problems – run into trouble. The $1,200bn (€890bn) US subprime mortgage bond market has been hit recently by rapidly growing defaults, and hedge funds have profited from the crisis by buying such derivatives.
Novato lender lays off most of its employees
http://www.marinij.com/fastsearchresults/ci_6025635
..Pro30 founder Bill Coleman said 99 percent of his clients had good credit records.”
“In many cases, he said, borrowers were defaulting on the loans without making a single payment, perhaps so they could live without housing expenses for six to nine months during the foreclosure process.”
Since Pending home sales for April will be reported today by the NAR.
NJMLS Bergen County SFH, Condo, Co-op & Twnhs Info
2007 down 3% compared to last year.
For the years 1995 -2007*, this past April wass the second lowest reporting (1995 was the 1st).
*NJMLS data only goes back to 1995
OMG…had a super-busy day yesterday and missed the Donald War. Damn! I always miss the good stuff.
Put that whole thread in a time capsule and bury it. A four-star classic!
As the resident bull here, I feel compelled to claim- just for the record- he ain’t one of my crowd. I’m a bull, yes; idiot, no.
The LOL clincher was Donald’s belief that mortgage rates aren’t going up. Yep, the 10 yr is busting over 4.9%…but those rates are coming down. Talk about putting on the blinders and drinking the Kool-Aid!
Hey Donald: mortgage rates are going up. I have a mortgage company in my office, and I read the sheets every day.
From the Herald News:
Prospect Park Quarry could be gold mine
This cash-strapped, built-out borough is on the verge of turning its fortunes around with a pending deal to develop a 79-acre quarry.
Mayor Mohamed Khairullah announced Wednesday that he would unveil plans for the withdrawal of Tilcon New Jersey from the quarry site before the end of his term in 2010. The site will be sold to a developer for 800 residential units and commercial use, according to the mayor.
“This is a major step for Prospect Park in many ways,” said Khairullah. “You’re looking at almost a city within a city.”
Unfortunately, I’ll be away from the computer for most of the day today. If someone can post links, I’d appreciate it. We’ve got one heck of an econ calendar today.
At 8:30
Nonfarm Payrolls
Personal Spending, Saving, Income
PCE
At 10:00
ISM
Pending home sales
U. Mich sentiment
From the Asbury Park Press:
Lakewood plan calls for a 10% tax hike
Township residents face a more than 10 percent property tax increase in the proposed 2007 municipal budget, a hike that officials blame on the aftermath of the property revaluation coupled with a stagnant economy.
If adopted, the $62.9 million budget will increase the tax rate from 41.1 cents to 45.5 cents per $100 of assessed property value.
To resident Dan Chaskin, 60, that 10.7 percent jump “seems excessive,” especially when compared to the school budget, which despite being much larger is only seeing a 3.8 percent tax rate increase.
…
One stems from the wave of appeals filed by residents after the property revaluation in 2005. The revaluation dropped the total tax rate from $3.549 per $100 of assessed property value to $1.559. Committeeman Charles Cunliffe said the town received 1,800 appeals last year and 1,000 more this year, forcing it to pad the budget with another million dollars to cover costs of appeals that might succeed.
…
“If we lose any of them we have to have the money to back it,” he said.
…
The second culprit in the tax hike is a downturn in the economy, which officials say has caused a 1.56 percent drop from last year in number of people who paid their taxes. This then has driven the reserve for uncollected taxes up from $4.35 million in 2006 to $5.47 million in the proposed budget.
…
The other half of the 10 percent tax hike can be attributed to higher insurance, utility, fuel and landfill disposal costs, which have added a couple hundred thousand dollars to expenses, said Frank Edwards, the township manager.
A final blow comes from the additional $688,000 the town has to pay this year as the state shifts another 20 percent of pension costs to municipalities, Edwards said.
Lakewood is now footing 80 percent of that bill when five years ago the township paid nothing.
The added expenses are compounded by a drastic hit the township’s surplus has taken due to the struggling economy and real estate market, Cunliffe said.
Flippers go find a job
Job mirage day.
Can anyone pull an address for MLS #2412066 in Westfield?
Thanks in advance.
I’ve been lurking for some time, but I just wanted to say how fast work went yesterday while I was following that circus yesterday!
Bravo Donald!
As an aside, a condo that I was following months and months ago which was listed in the 235-245 range is now listed in the 185-195 range. How do you pronounce that Bob? Bababababoooyah?
Yes, I’m the typical mid-20’s schlub who puts in his 50-60 hours behind a computer and brings in a little more than average. I’m not your 200k+ a year DINK household looking to buy a 500k+ starter.
I’m sitting back banking a little money money, paying low rent for a modest condo and waiting. Hoping to benefit from too many greedy slobs on the market that are in over their head. I’ve got lots of knowledge and experience in how to invest sweat equity into a place, so once those guys who couldn’t afford the upkeep on their place (let alone the mortgage) are forced to sell, I can come in and get something ‘reasonable’.
Thanks for the information (on both sides of the fence).
James Bednar Says:
June 1st, 2007 at 7:59 am
Unfortunately, I’ll be away from the computer for most of the day today.
unfortunately??? geek – here, this probably will get your rocks off……
http://hoboken411.com/archives/6920
From the The Record
Allendale to buy part of tract as open space
The Borough Council voted unanimously Thursday night to buy at least part of a 3-acre property at West Orchard Street and Franklin Turnpike where construction of a 24-unit town house development was due to begin today.
Borough officials have been negotiating with the developer to preserve the land as open space…
More at the link above,
Rich
“Employers in the U.S. hired more workers than forecast last month, signaling the economy is rebounding from the weakest growth in four years.”
“A report this month from the Labor Department, based on tax records from all businesses, showed the economy added 19,000 private-sector jobs in the third quarter. That contrasts with the government’s monthly payroll figures, based on a smaller survey, which showed a gain of 498,000 jobs for the period.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a9IaHCHk2.NM&refer=home
PERSONAL INCOME AND OUTLAYS: APRIL 2007
Personal income decreased $7.1 billion, or 0.1 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI)decreased $9.7 billion, or 0.1 percent, in April, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $52.0 billion, or 0.5 percent.
http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/pi/2007/pi0407.htm
Big Investors Jumping Back Into Shaky Loans
The subprime mortgage business is in tatters: loan volume is plummeting, defaults are rising and some of the biggest lenders have cut back or shut down…So what is the smart money — private equity, hedge funds and investment banks — doing? They are swooping in and taking over those battered businesses, seeing opportunity amid the wreckage.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/06/01/business/01subprime.html?_r=1&oref=slogin
“Core inflation falls back inside Fed’s target zone”
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) – Core consumer price inflation increased just 0.1% in April, bringing the year-over-year increase down to 2%, just inside the Federal Reserve’s target, the Commerce Department reported Friday. It’s the first time in 14 months that core prices have been inside the Fed’s unofficial target zone of 1% to 2%. Personal incomes unexpectedly fell 0.1% in April, after hefty bonuses were paid in the first quarter. Real disposable incomes (after accounting for taxes and inflation) fell 0.4%, the first decline in a year. Consumer spending, meanwhile, rose a larger-than-expected 0.5% in April in nominal terms. After adjusting for a 0.3% rise in consumer prices, real spending increased 0.2%.
Now that we are into June, it’s time to re-open Reechards favourite topic.
Wall Street Bonus !!
Most banks would have paid out by now. So what’s up with housing? Why are inventories building in NJ/NY/CT with the huge bonus payouts?
DoughBoy Says:
June 1st, 2007 at 8:21 am
Good luck to you.
Keep thinking for yourself. do not let the starving friskie eating tour guides older folks trying to have someone bail their retirement out or lifestle adjusters tell you what to pay.
It’s all a ponzi and prices are still foolishly high.
You’ll get something, but make sure you get it at reasonable price and you can afford it.
BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAAAAA
Bob
Anti,
How about personal income falling 0.1% and real disposable income falling 0.4%? The rich are getting richer, the barbarians are loading up new targets with debt and what is the effect on real economic output? Zilch. The average worker is falling behind.
As an aside, a condo that I was following months and months ago which was listed in the 235-245 range is now listed in the 185-195 range. How do you pronounce that Bob? Bababababoooyah?
=======================================
Can u feel the Papapapapa PANIC?
BOOOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAA (Sick moaning 1/2 yell)
Bob
More from CBSMarketWatch
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) – Core consumer price inflation increased just 0.1% in April …
The deceleration in core inflation is welcome news at the Fed, but officials have stressed that they still believe inflation could accelerate again despite the recent improvements…
**With the Fed on guard against inflation and brushing off the slump in the economy as temporary, financial markets are no longer expecting any rate cuts from the Fed this year.**
Why should the greedy grubbers get “ALL” the upside?
Why should you bail them out of their retirement dilemma?
Tell’em you ain’t no fool and that delaying retirement while working a few more years or a second job may help. No bail outs. Entitlement this.
Slash and burn asking prices. You deserve to be rewarded for your sacrifice time and patience.
And you would like to get a return on your house even if it is small.
It is not a buyers market. when prices drop to affordable levels then okay it’s a buyers market.
Lower your entitlement prices, buyers say NO MAAS otherwise.
bababababa
BOOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAAA (sick moaning 1/2 yell)
Bob
By the way, that Warhol piece, Stevie Cohen.
“Savings Rate Worsens”
“Because spending increased while incomes fell, the savings rate worsened to minus 1.3 percent, from minus 0.7 percent the prior month. A negative rate suggests consumers are tapping savings to maintain spending.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=amdLqarbx3EM
2412066 -814 Summit Ave
KL
Hovnanian Posts 3rd Straight Loss
Like its competitors in the high-end home market, Hovnanian has been hit hard by the downturn in the housing market…The company builds luxury homes in 17 states including California, Florida, New Jersey and New York…”We are frustrated to report that the housing market has continued to slip further in many locations in terms of both sales pace and sales prices,”
http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D8PFPVBG0.htm
This is from a CNN/Money story posted on the home page:
But now, rates on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage, which have floated in a narrow range of 6.14 percent to 6.34 percent all year, have begun a steady rise. Doug Duncan, chief economist for the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), expects them to top out near 7 percent by the end of the year.
But why?
Because the yield on long bonds is rising?
Because the risk is now perceived as being greater?
Must Read for Donald.
Motley Fool
The Worst Investment Ever
Friday May 18, 2:05 pm ET
By Robert Aronen
My fellow Fool John Rosevear considers a house to be the best investment ever. I disagree. A house is a place to live, not a road to riches.
Think about it for a minute. What characteristics do Fools look for in a great investment? Positive cash flow, low expense ratios, low transaction fees, and historically proven returns. Using these criteria, the average house falls well short of the all-time best.
http://biz.yahoo.com/fool/070518/117951154741.html?.v=1&.pf=real-estate
raise the rates….
I’ll just earn more in bank interest.
Boo hoo for the people with no money (no savings) -they can’t borrow to “purchase” a ridiculously priced house.
Birth death adjustment for May was only 203K :) 40K upward adjustments for construction.
http://www.bls.gov/web/cesbd.htm
Interesting website about Newark Schools.
They figured out that it costs taxpayers $740,000 for each high school diploma issued by Newark.
http://www.teachersunionexposed.com/
PBS =:) Housing in the United States is taking a big hit …..
Housing in the United States is taking a big hit as “too-good-to-be-true” home loans fail, refinancing dries up, and foreclosures surge. How did the market plummet so quickly — and are current homeowners paying the price? NOW revisits a California town whose real estate fortunes have taken a hard turn for the worse.
Video:
Past Due and Pay Day
http://www.pbs.org/now/shows/317/index.html
The real estate reality kicks in !!!
I am looking at two houses – one on a cul de sac and the other a corner lot. Both have similar lot size and side garage entrances.
KL, Clot or others, assuming everything else being equal – do you see buyers prefer one over the other?
I am asking just to get popular buyers opinion from the street.
Thanks!
I vote for cul de sac
This means quiet street with very little traffic.
Also, a corner lot typically means less privacy in the back yard.
#36 Is there a side walk on the corner lot? Means more snow to clear on the side walks of a corner lot.
I prefer cul de sacs or dead end streets.
Cul de sac. More privacy. In my town you can’t put up a fence more than 4 feet high and it must have at least 50% visibility through it to be on a corner lot.
#36,
That’s easy Cul De Sac should be prices 5-10K more just for the privacy and prestige.
Corner lot normaly means it’s large in size but the traffic flow is greater and less privacy in the backyard.
Pending Home sales for Apr are in: -3.2%
http://briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm
KL #28,
Got it. Thanks!
Old news. Interesting read nonetheless.
“Kuwait kicks sand on the dollar”
“Kuwait recently waved goodbye and stopped pegging its currency to the U.S. dollar.”
“This all leaves the U.S. dollar in a very uncomfortable position. On the one hand, we are seeing a gradual move away from the dollar by the world’s central banks in favor of baskets of currencies. This puts gradual downward pressure on the price of the dollar and leads to a gradual increase in U.S. inflation and U.S. interest rates, as well as a gradual decline in relative U.S. standards of living and U.S. financial market performance.”
“As in Kuwait, where such a move resulted in a 25% shift away from the U.S. dollar in favor of other currencies, I don’t think the result is a stampede out of the U.S. dollar. The dollar balloon isn’t about to burst. But we are witnessing the air gradually leak out of the currency.”
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/JubaksJournal/KuwaitKicksSandOnTheDollar.aspx
Thanks.. I would have said Cul de sac too. But in a strange way, in this neighbor hood folks park their cars in the cul de sac (not sure why they dont use their garages). and i’m not sure if this is an NJ thing, but they also park their cars perpendicular to the side walk on the cul de sac not along side.
So although there are 5 houses in the cul de sac, it looks busy and doesnt look as quiet as it sounds. I looked up the neighbors and the house immediate to the right looks like it is owned by 3 brothers (the guys seem to have a lot of trucks and dont use the garage). The house on the left has its drive way almost in front of the house of interest (hard to explain, i know).
The corner house has a sidewalk. I did not think of the snow – thanks. It is fenced – but only on one side facing the street. It is not a busy street, since the street that it corners is a dead-end.
I am tending towards the culdesac.. but it doesnt look as no-brainer as it sounds because of a zillion other little things (as you can imagine).
Anyone else notice a big jump in inventory in their towns this week? Maybe lots of people took the time to clean up houses and yards for listing this weekend…
Does anyone have an address/ DOM on 2411987?
Thanks so much!
RentLord, I just bought on a cul de sac, and privacy and light traffic was key for us. It would be for anyone with kids and animals. It’s not a guarantee of safety, but it’s safer to me than a corner lot. Plus, a corner lot offers no privacy, and unless you spend the money to put up a fence or hedges, everyone can see everything you do in your yard. I would not even consider a corner lot, personally, unless it was huge and on two very very quiet roads.
#36. As a potential homebuyer who wants to have an in-home business with some limited daily traffic, I would prefer the corner lot.
cul de sac and the other a corner lot.
Cul de sac**** of course – there was a certain prestige tied to corner lots, they were generally bigger, and the home looked impressive. I would prefer the cul de sac.
KL
Okay, since it is on the corner of a dead end street, traffic probably be an issue. You can plant shrubs to give privacy. It doesn’t sound like the cul de sac, in this instance, would be the better choice because of the parking issues. Coming from someone who has had parking issues with the neighbors many times in the last 10 years, it can be a huge pain and stressful. Since we are at the end of a dead end, people feel then can park in the middle of the street and block our driveway. I am constantly having to deal with this and when you ask someone to move their car or tell them they can’t park there, they get hostile. My neighbors across the street even called the police on someone who just decided to park across their driveway (further up the street so not at the end) and the woman argued with the police.
AOL
2411987 60 Charles Street -DOM 3
No history such as expired/withdrawn.
KL
Oooh- I feel important when Grim is away (-:
he usually beats me to the punch
Your neighbor called the police on someone who parked across (I’m assuming blocked in) their own driveway?
Is it illegal to block your own driveway?
KL,
You are important. How else would I know about lawyer’s stuffed in their trunk?
Willow – precisely what I am concerned about – neighbors – since cul de sac appears to be a free-for-all. It helps to have neighbors with kids and everyone is consious of safety. But we can’t buy the neighbors – unless I am The Donald and decide to buy all the other 4 houses as well ;-)
The good or bad part – there is a bright red fire hydrant right in front of the house in question. So no one parks in the front of this house ;-)
On a side note, I am looking at houses with the listing agents. And frankly I feel you get a lot more information about the house and the owner this way. I’m fed up of talking to pure buyers agents who cannot provide a straight answer to anything.
10-YR 32 basis points away from 5.25.
Will we take it out next week?
Ouch.
oops.. I sound like I clubbed all buyers agents under one umbrella. Let me add.. IMHO It’s almost impossible to find an agent like KL as a buyer’s agent. But then if you end up with a seller’s agent like Clot, you are screwed too ;-)
You may get a lot more information from the seller’s agent, but it doesn’t promise to be any more legit than the lack of information you get from a buyer’s agent.
#56.. true. But the “truthiness” can be debated :)
The closest to “truthiness” is the “toothiness” of the smile that they’re shining while giving you that information.
Hey guys, I am back.
Kannekt’s traffic seemed to drop lately. I think everyone left to go to forums that are not mouthpieces for the developers. Let’s have round 2 of the Donald debate.
I will start off:
All the money you are overpaying in rent will not save you anyhting when you go to buy a house.
Oh, and sorry I could not log on earlier. I WAS HAVING A SHOWING.
“All the money you are overpaying in rent will not save you anyhting when you go to buy a house.”
This from the guy who wants to spend 2k a month renting while hemmoraging equity from a house that might be worth the 65% he put down when he purchased at peak… all because he doesn’t want to “lose money”.
I think you’ve got a point, Donnie.
Great news. I hope it is successful for you.
#59: Let’s have round 2 of the Donald debate….
Is it me or does this guy like to hear himself talk? It is either that or a plant that really is just testing us out to see how we respond… I mean come on:
“All the money you are overpaying in rent will not save you anyhting when you go to buy a house”
… is almost rhetorical; then again the fact that he purchased at the housing market crest leads me to believe that maybe he really is not firing with all his pistons.
Sorry, but homes are not selling for a fraction of their 2005 values. There might be a few, but they are in the minority. Homes either do not sell or they sell for the same price as they would have 2 years ago.
Home prices have only went down 1.4% in 2007. THAT IS IT. You are talking about $10,000. Stop inflating the numbers. There is no double digit depreciation. We a are very far away from that kind of decline.
I am curious to know if this 1.4% also reflects when the LAs take the home off the market to lower the price and relist. I’d be curious to see the stats after this is incorporated.
Donnie claims that if someone from this community posts on Konnekt? the comments will be deleted within a minute..
yet he feels the urge to lurk here, and comment/entertain.. may be one day he will give up his kool-aid and join the ranks of make money?
A lot of sellers start off at ridicilous prices. There is a home in Fort Lee that I almost bought in 2005 for $870,000. I backed out because it had major structural problems. The home is currently listed at $1,159,000. Even if asking prices are lowered, it does not really have a major affect because people start off way too high. However, if you compare the SOLD prices to those of 2005, the numbers have barely changed.
How can you disagree with me? Home prices have only come down $10,000 on the average house. Seriously, you people are gasping straws in an effort to re-bunk the 1.4%.
NJMLS Stats for Jan 1 – May 31 for Fort Lee, Cliffside Park, and Edgewater
Condo, Co-op & Twnhs
Year Sold U/C Med$
2005 569 727 $378,000
2006 336 374 $372,500
2007 369 424 $360,000
Have heard that corner lots cost more to insure against loss due to theft. Something about more traffic, and higher number of ingress/egress points.
Donald,
You are yesterday’s news. Squashed with the rest, finished. Glory days has now been revised to trapped.
YAWN.
thank you!
Best case scenario using your faux numbers: You’re ready to take a 60k+ hit in addition to any upkeep and taxes paid and you’re talking about RE investing and ‘saving money’ when buying a house.
“Condo, Co-op & Twnhs
Year Sold U/C Med$
2005 569 727 $378,000
2006 336 374 $372,500
2007 369 424 $360,000”
All right, so prices came down $18,000 in 2 years. Big deal. And I can guaranteee you those prices will INCRESE once all the people who went into contract for high end luxury condos close. One Hudson Park is over 75% sold out and Aurora Over the Hudson is selling lots of condos for well over $1 million.
However, if you compare the SOLD prices to those of 2005, the numbers have barely changed.
If that is the case, why are you having so much trouble selling your home? You should be priced just right for the market. However, no one even wants to look at it.
You pull numbers out of your ass that are wrong and now you’re going to “guaranteee” price “increse”?
Oh Donald.
Or is it Donald Oh?
“Best case scenario using your faux numbers: You’re ready to take a 60k+ hit in addition to any upkeep and taxes paid and you’re talking about RE investing and ’saving money’ when buying a house.”
Can you please expalain to me how 1.4% translates into $60,000?
Please look at the following numbers from Bloomberg. They are barely worth mentioning since they are so small:
“The value of a house dropped 1.4 percent in the first three months of the year from the same period in 2006, according to a report today by S&P/Case-Shiller. Prices last fell during the third quarter of 1991.”
“The decline in prices may not be large enough to concern the majority of home owners, economists said.” (My favorite quote)
“Home values dropped 1.4 percent in March from the same month in 2006, after declining 0.8 percent in the year ended February.”
“The March index covering transactions in 20 metropolitan areas, showed home prices dropped 0.3 percent from a month earlier, following a 0.4 percent decline in February.”
“The March index covering transactions in 20 metropolitan areas, showed home prices dropped 0.3 percent from a month earlier, following a 0.4 percent decline in February.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aF4SpbvzGqs8&refer=home
1.4%, 0.3%, 0.4%, 0.8%. At these rates, my home is going to lose 60% of its present value…. in 2080!!!
So, come on people. Tell me how my home is going to depreciate 30% if the higest number cited is 1.4%. I am really curious.
MJ #66
How can you possible compare to/with this Donald Duck guy, I made my money, and stopped dealing in early 2006. He saw me make money and got in at the peak. He’s my wanna be.
The only investment he ever made was a house he bought at the top. He’s clueless on how markets work and has clearly admitted to being a bag holder.
It’s the same bag that I made my money with and have now passed it to him to hold and wait a decade or so to brake even.
Guy’s like Donald look up to guys like myself and go broke trying to immulate our success. Enough said.
Donald,
Where are you getting your stats on the number of units sold at the developments you mention? The newspaper? The sales people? Making them up?
I hope you realize the articles you read in the newspaper are planted by the developers in hopes of creating a “buzz” about a project. In addition, sales people always inflate the number sold to create a sense of urgency. Also, when the developers quote stats in the press they include deposits taken in the total number “sold”. It’s all BS.
I see nobody has disproved the depreciation numbers I cited from Bloomberg. For the 55th time, tell me how my home will lose $150,000 when the highest statistic is 1.4%.
Since we haven’t heard from Grim recently, I beggining to think he’s playing devils advocate to stirr up some interest. This Donald Character can’t be real.
Oh no, he is real. What’s the matter? Can’t stand people who disagreew with your gloom and doom predictions.
So, come on; tell me how my home will depreciate 30% when the current rate is 1.4%?
Have heard that corner lots cost more to insure against loss due to theft. Something about more traffic, and higher number of ingress/egress points
No, not true, I was in insurance before real estate – I hated insurance – thought they were big rip-off artists! Although it would’nt surprise me to find out it is a new rule/regulation.
KL
All, I think we need to accept that Donald has a screw loose. I’m not sure he’s mentally all there. It’s almost obsessive, his postings. If anyone is a Little Britain fan, I think Donald is going the way of Anne! Eh EH!
Donnie, what do your annual taxes + maintenance add up to?
#51
“our neighbor called the police on someone who parked across (I’m assuming blocked in) their own driveway?
Is it illegal to block your own driveway?”
It wasn’t the neighbor who blocked their own driveway – it was neighbor B who blocked neighbor A’s driveway. I don’t think it’s illegal to block your own driveway but when asked to move your car from someone else’s driveway by a police officer, it should be a no brainer – move the car.
FYI, most of the problems are from tenants in a 3 family house across the street from us. Right now we’re in a lul with decent people living there but, at times, it’s been horrendous – drugs, parties, parking issues, small children being left home alone, etc.
Donald,
I don’t know where you got the 30% depreciation.
To my point, prices are not rising. They are falling.
Using the area you mentioned prices are down 4.8% from 2005 to 2007.
But lets say prices remained the same (you could sell your home for what you paid for it), what percentage would you have lost?
Need a hint?
Don’t feed the troll.
It’s done. Finished.
#88-
You should save that post for all the people who say that buying a house saves you from crappy neighbours.
Your right lisoosh.
Just the “hint”: inflation
RE: culdesac vs corner lot
All things equal, it’s a no-brainer to go with a culdesac.
Almost zero passing traffic, more privacy, less noise (see traffic).
I do not know where I got the 30% depreciation either. Other posters cite crazy numbers and I was just repeating some of the numbers I have seen being posted here regarding depreciation.
“Can you please expalain to me how 1.4% translates into $60,000?”
Your 2005 purchase price = 840,000
1.4% of 840,000 = 11760
840,000 – 11760 = Sale price of 828,240
Aprox 6% seller costs of 828,240 = 49695
11760 + 49695 = 61454
Did I miss something?
#49
I realize that I didn’t word my first post correctly after going back and reading it. The neighbor didn’t block his own driveway – another neighbor blocked his driveway.
Dead man walking. I think walking.
Dough,
Don’t forget closing costs, in and out. Also, the dreaded NJRE transfer fee.
“Did I miss something?”
Yes, yu did. First, my selling costs are only 4%. Second, homes appreciated after I bought so you need to cite depreciation rates from $850,000 or $860,000. Reduce these numbers by 1.4% and I will not lose. Homes appreciated about 12% right after I bought.
“Can you please expalain [sic] to me how 1.4% translates into $60,000?”
You’re right, it’s worse than $60,000 (realtor fees + closing costs + opportunity costs).
“Yes, yu did. First, my selling costs are only 4%. Second, homes appreciated after I bought so you need to cite depreciation rates from $850,000 or $860,000. Reduce these numbers by 1.4% and I will not lose. Homes appreciated about 12% right after I bought.”
Using these numbers, you’re looking at losing around 45-50k instead of 60k… boy I sure do feel silly.
#91
I would never buy on a street with multi-family houses again – too many headaches. I have a friend who lives next door to a multi-family house. There have been issues with drugs and prostitution. When she went to the town with this information, they challenged her but she had other neighbors who backed her up on this. She wanted to put up a 6 foot fence along the property line and she needed a variance to do it. Would you believe that someone on the board voted against it because “isn’t it better to see when something is being thrown over the fence?” I guess with a 6 foot fence you can’t see when something is being thrown into your yard?
Also, when we went to the police chief regarding drugs in the house across the street he also challenged us – “How would you know there were drugs being dealt in the house?” Now, we’re not dopes – about once a week a car with Florida plates drives up, the woman goes into the house for 5 minutes and leaves. Plus we knew the guy living there was using. Finally when the chief talked to the detective, he finally believed us because the detective knew of the vehicle and the woman.
#95, don’t forget opportunity costs. The Donald says he put down 60%.
So that’s $540,000, over two years, at an ultra-conservative 5% return, which $51,660 in lost opportunity costs.
#91
Also, if you are renting and there are issues with the neighbors, you can just very easily move.
Donald, were the people you showed your house to impressed with your pleasant backyard view of the slums across Palisades Ave?
Sorry, I know I am exaggerating, saying you have a backyard is pushing it.
Lost opportunity costs are irrelevant. There is no guarantee that I would have made a single penny had I not bought a house so I could not care less about them.
Donald,
I asked you this earlier, what is your motivation for being here?
I don’t agree with most of views expressed here but I have to admit that it’s been educational experience until you came along.
Yes you’re not down 30%. You’re down around 10%(inflation adjusted) but if interest rates go up(they’re heading that way) to 9% or we have a recession(which is possible) then my friend you will be down way above 30%.
Lower your price and cut your losses, or take the house of the market and use it as a home and not a get rich quick scheme tool.
Donald, to summarize, you lost at least $100K — that’s if you manage to find a fool willing to buy at your 2005 100-year-peak price:
http://graphics.nytimes.com/images/2006/08/26/weekinreview/27leon_graph2.large.gif
Donald Says:
June 1st, 2007 at 11:43 am
“Condo, Co-op & Twnhs
Year Sold U/C Med$
2005 569 727 $378,000
2006 336 374 $372,500
2007 369 424 $360,000″
All right, so prices came down $18,000 in 2 years. Big deal. And I can guaranteee you those prices will INCRESE once all the people who went into contract for high end luxury condos close. One Hudson Park is over 75% sold out and Aurora Over the Hudson is selling lots of condos for well over $1 million.
The Donald: Do you understand the flaw in your analysis? If you don’t, stop playing in the adult pool and move back to the kiddie one. They just changed the water. ;)
“Lost opportunity costs are irrelevant.”
LOL, how you and $500K came together in the first place is a miracle.
5% is guaranteed:
http://www.emigrantdirect.com
Lost opportunity costs are irrelevant. “There is no guarantee that I would have made a single penny had I not bought a house so I could not care less about them”.
A CD would have gotten you 5% return but you probably don’t know what that is. Do you?
51K in interest is what you gave up to invest in a RE always goes up theory.
Donald Says:
…appreciated about 12% right after I bought.
Did you not state that you purchased in 2005? What stats do you have that show an increase of 12%?
“Donald, to summarize, you lost at least $100K”
Wow, I did not know that 1.4% of my home’s value is $100,000.
Hey Donald, why don’t you compare new home numbers vs existing homes? New home prices have dropped 15%. These prices are set by businesses who use current marketing trends and rational thinking to set prices. Existing homes prices are set by homeowners who have cognitive dissonance. They have an emotional attachment to a price (ie because my neighbor got that much last year, or I paid more than that for it).
Inventories are high and it takes longer to sell a home. It will take more time for existing homeowners (like yourself) to get desperate enough to well their homes before reality sets in and the prices start falling faster.
Let’s see someone cite some statistics that show home prices have declined 12%. That would give me a loss of $100,000.
Usually the people who are making money aren’t trolling around “real estate bubble” forums.
That is, unless they are in denial.
“It will take more time for existing homeowners (like yourself) to get desperate enough to well their homes before reality sets in and the prices start falling faster.”
The only way my house will be sold for less than $840,000 is from my estate… after I die. I have no reason to get desperate. If I did, I would have gotten desperate a long time ago. The last time I rejected a lowball offer, I got a REAL offer less than a year later and sold for a good price.
“Wow, I did not know that 1.4% of my home’s value is $100,000.”
Realtor fees + closing costs + opportunity costs.
$50,000 + $8,000 + $$51,000 = $109,000 loss.
Donald,
You won’t know for certain how much you lost until you actually sell your house. All the statistics in the world are useless until you actually get an offer.
And the longer you wait the lower your offers will get. Hint.
now add 2 years worth of Taxes, insurance and maintance+51K worth if interest you gave up then my friend you’re underwater around 100K.
But if you wait another 2 years(assuming the prices don’t fall at all) you’ll be down another 100K.
My realtor fees come out to under $35,000. And I do not care about lost opportunity costs. Maybe I missed out on an execelelnt financial opportunity by purchaisng a house and I could have made $2 million. Maybe I lost $2 million for all we know.
“Let’s see someone cite some statistics that show home prices have declined 12%. That would give me a loss of $100,000.”
Incorrect. You would need a decline of around 5% to lose 100k. You’re forgetting that you actually have to pay to sell it if someone ever actually signs a contract on it.
Looking at realistic numbers that are in line with the information that you’ve provided; If you lose less than 100k on this house, I’d be extremely suprised.
On the flip side, if you would have taken that cash you put down on the house and put it into a savings account and added the extra 2500 a month that you paid (rather than reting the 2000 condo that you bragged about yesterday), you’d have GAINED around 110k (in a 5% savings)
Funny how it comes back to your first statement about how renting won’t help save you money to buy a house.
“And the longer you wait the lower your offers will get. Hint.’
Not true. Technically, I have not waited because I just set back the clock on the lisitng. RE expers say to look for houses that have been listed for over 6 months in order to get a good deal (lowball). But sellers are aware of this and simply relist. A stale listing becomes brand new… LIKE MAGIC! And buyers do not have access to listing dates. Only realtors do, and they are not going to tell you the date the house was first put on the market. They will cite the fake date if you ask.
Maybe I missed out on an execelelnt financial opportunity by purchaisng a house and I could have made $2 million.
Have you ever heard ot T-bills or CD’s or just plain Savings accounts.
You could have gotten 51K in interest with ZERO risk. Turkey.
I dsagree. I rented for 3 years and had my money in the bank. I did not make a single penny. $110k? Yeah, right.
“RE expers say to look for houses that have been listed for over 6 months in order to get a good deal (lowball). But sellers are aware of this and simply relist. A stale listing becomes brand new… LIKE MAGIC! And buyers do not have access to listing dates.”
Don’t be so sure – my realtor was very happy to tell me where houses were relists, and buyers who have been looking for a while have seen everything that’s been on the market for the past year – I have even seen houses that sold in ’05 and are on the market again, and I remember them – I’m certain I’m not the only one. Everyone knows that trick, and no one falls for it.
“my realtor was very happy to tell me where houses were relists”
Well then, you are lucky because you have an honest realtor. Most realtors are not going to tell you if the home was re-listed.
dsagree. I rented for 3 years and had my money in the bank. I did not make a single penny. $110k? Yeah, right.
this leads me to beleive that you never had a penny to your name and that you’re full of BS.
Donnie,[courtesy of the boss]
Monday morning came so fast
What a fool to think that dreams would last
Close my eyes and it’s still so clear
Remember the night girl, the world disappeared
Can’t let the hand of fate
Let it drag me down
I can’t get no angel of mercy
I came to stay but I got swept away
And I’m trapped again
And I can’t get out without losing you
And I’m trapped again
Why can’t you feel what I’m going through
I’m trapped again
I need an answer girl, can’t you see
I’m trapped again
Come and rescue me
If anyone wants to know the listing history of a house on NJMLS, just ask here.
I’m sure the same is true for GSMLS.
In any case, your (buyers) agent should provide you with this information.
Rich
do not know where I got the 30% depreciation either. Other posters cite crazy numbers
Peak homes prices in New Jersey were about 30% overvalued compared with their historic relationship to income levels. It would take a 30% drop today to get back to normal pricing levels.
Do I think we will see a 30% drop? Yes, economic bubbles have a strong tendency to return to the mean. But, It won’t come from a massive “crash”. It will probably play out as falling prices for a few years followed by a long stagnant period, where incomes (inflation) catches up with prices. I think we are looking at a 7 – 10 years before we see a “normal” market again
On an inflation adjusted basis, North Jersey prices fell 28% between 1988 and 1997.
“I think we are looking at a 7 – 10 years before we see a “normal” market again”
If that is true, have fun renting for the next decade. Enjoy those rent increases every year. Yikes. The last time I checked, my property taxes are going to get cut by 15%. Once that happens, people will be more inclined to buy and prices will increase.
renting#130
I agree with your outlook. However it last month I’m begging to see signs of a serious correction happening a lot faster and even overshooting below the mean.
It seems like the rates on their way up and the recession is possible. If both happen simoultaneously, within six months you’ll see a capitulation of housing via foreclosures, tight lending and a housing deppression.
That would be a massacre and CASH will be KING again.
I’m not saying it’s going to happen I’m just saying it’s a possibility.
Donald,
Your taxes are going to get cut by 15%? Where do you live? Mine have gone up about 25% in the last 3 years.
Donald Says: my property taxes are going to get cut by 15%.
OK Pal, you’re totally on heroin here. Nobody else is getting their property taxes lowered
just out of curiosity,
When was the last time anyone NAR included stated that we are at the bottom.
Donald Says:
…The last time I checked, my property taxes are going to get cut by 15%.
What?
“And I do not care about lost opportunity costs.”
It’s irrelevant whether you care about guaranteed money you lost. You lost at least 5% (or $51,000), but if you wanted to move your risk threshold above 0%, most investors make about 10-12%. But I’m talking about the guaranteed, 0% risk $51,000 you lost by sinking it into a house.
You say your realtor fees are $35K, so using that scenario, your loss is:
$35,000 + $8,000 + $51,000 = $94,000 loss.
RE: #122 – “And the longer you wait the lower your offers will get. Hint.”
The offers will get lower not because of DOM counts, but because the market is heading down the other side of the hill, like a roller coaster:
http://graphics.nytimes.com/images/2006/08/26/weekinreview/27leon_graph2.large.gif
You can cry uncle now, and tell the operator you want to get off the ride, or you can put your arms in the air, and enjoy the ride down.
…The last time I checked, my property taxes are going to get cut by 15%.
Oh grasshopper…I hate to be the one to tell you this, but the Corzine tax break is a one-shot deal. It’s not a permanent rebate and it’s not sustainable…there is no way to pay for it.
It’s meant to keep voters from getting to antsy about taxes before the November elections.
“Lost opportunity costs are irrelevant.” “…and had my money in the bank. I did not make a single penny.”
Why do you folks keep responding? It’s clear that he’s either financially challenged or uneducated.
. . . or a troll who wants to waste your time.
And buyers do not have access to listing dates. Only realtors do, and they are not going to tell you the date the house was first put on the market. They will cite the fake date if you ask.
That’s incredibly funny, is that what your current real estate agent told you, or is that how you ended buying when you did, you neglected to ask you buyers agent in 2005? Funny stuff!
KL
RE #140, 141, makes for good entertainment on a slow Friday…
Donald is a riot to read!
Can someone with MLS access please give me an update on 2389456, it was supposed to close on 24th May. Thanks in advance
I think we are looking at a 7 – 10 years before we see a “normal” market again”…If that is true, have fun renting for the next decade.
I never said I was going to wait for the very bottom. I’m looking to buy in the fall of ’08, when I think we will see the bulk of nominal price declines behind us and we get ready to setting into the stagnation phase. I don’t want to be a Donny-Bagholder.
If I don’t see prices I am okay with by fall ’08, I’m off to North Carolina with a huge down payment in my pocket.
So what are your plans? Are you going to keep your house on the market for the next 10 years?
Enough of dead man walking.
“M3 growth (total money supply) in the US is around 13% y/y. Believe it or not, our monetary growth is SMALL compared to most countries. 18 of the top 20 central banks are growing their money supplies at double-digit annual rates with Russia leading the way at over 40% y/y.”
“Perhaps the biggest question of all is where is all the money/credit created going? Money supply growth is at roughly 13%, yet GDP growth is only .6% Where is the all the money going? Certainly not into the hands of the average consumer to help offset increases in the cost of nearly everything.”
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/sutton/2007/0601.html
Can someone kindly give the history on this one:
MLS ID# 24233TH
Thank you.
0.6% GDP is near inflation. If the second quater comes in at these numbers then my friends be very happy you’re not Donald.
http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini
#125 AND And buyers do not have access to listing dates. Only realtors do, and they are not going to tell you the date the house was first put on the market. They will cite the fake date if you ask.
I am in complete agreement with you. If a TRUE Buyer’s agent wants to sell you a house they WILL tell you if it has been relisted or not. The reason for this is to let you know what there is some Flexibility in the listing price. Moreso than for one that was NEWLY listed. Donald = wrong; NJGal and JN = correct.
June 1 (Bloomberg) — An index of pending sales of existing homes in the U.S. unexpectedly fell to the lowest level in more than four years in April, a further sign the real-estate slump may linger.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aCbXsAbb21qY&refer=home
M2. Up 7.5% for the 1st quarter. Where is M3?
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/current/
#118 Unrealtor
“Realtor fees + closing costs + opportunity costs.
$50,000 + $8,000 + $$51,000 = $109,000 loss.”
Now, let’s also factor in (1) inflation and (2) his carrying cost (property taxes and maintenance), each over two years. Conservatively, that’s $16K for each, or another $32K
$109,000 + $36,000 = $145,000.
I’m still deciding on whether to buy or rent as we have to move to NJ due to a company move. On the plus side to buy, all closing costs at both ends are paid for etc, so no cost to me. They buy my house at at least what I paid for it (1 year ago here in CT). And the downsides are obvious, still buying when sellers are not realistic and the nutty taxes. On the rent plus side, stick all my equity into something decent for a few years and watch it pay for my rent. However, when it gets closer to happening, my wife is getting emotional, and wants to buy, and all the reasoning and quotes from here are not sticking.
I asked the realtor to take a look at the LP of houses that have been on the market more than 100 days, and have at least one price reduction. Then I used zillow just to get past sale prices.
Even though this is way outside our price range there was one on a lake in mountain lakes, OLP 1.89M, LP 1.35, taxes 26K!!! It has been on the market for over 300 days.
And then there is
2 runnymede rd, madison MLS 2371838. OLP 1.2 M, LP 1.0 M, purchased last october (from zillow)for $750,000. So this person is expecting in this market to make 250K in 7 months in a declining market.
I just don’t think sellers get it yet, and still think that they can get close to list if the wait long enough.
And I still find it difficult to think about paying 900K to 1.2 M for a house that was 300K in 1999. And then 18K in taxes.
Renting here we come…if I can convince my wife. Still even that is 3000-3500 for 3 bedroom in morris plains/morristown, and 4000 plus in Chatham area as I work in Montville, and want to live in a nice town for my wife to walk downtown with the kids, and I am trying to not have a 1.5 hour commute.
I am sure that something will fall into place, just a tough game at the moment
“When was the last time anyone NAR included stated that we are at the bottom.”
Can’t recall this being stated in the last 6 weeks.
NJ Bound – someone must have written a nice relo provision into your employment agreement!
#153 NJ Bound: Stay tough, your wife will thank you in the end.
“The only way my house will be sold for less than $840,000 is from my estate… after I die. I have no reason to get desperate.”
As long as you are in no hurry, but as others pointed out, it could take years.
During the early 90’s a RE broker friend of mine told me that they were refusing to list homes that were overpriced. It costs them money to list and advertise, why bother if they know they’ll never get that price? I wonder if this is going to happen again pretty quickly.
$150 “Housing slump may linger”. Linger? its just starting to get into high gear.
“I’m not saying it’s going to happen I’m just saying it’s a possibility.”
Make,
The sh*t will hit the fan when the first LBO implodes from the weight of its over-burdened debt or when a deal fails at the table; akin to UAL, 1989. When the debt bubble pops it’s bend over and kiss your *ss goodbye.
“During the early 90’s a RE broker friend of mine told me that they were refusing to list homes that were overpriced. It costs them money to list and advertise, why bother if they know they’ll never get that price? I wonder if this is going to happen again pretty quickly.”
I was wondering this, too. A wildly overpriced house near me has been on the market for almost a year now (standing empty the whole time), and just the other day I noticed that the broker’s sign was no longer on the lawn. Sure enough, a couple of days later, an FSBO sign was on the lawn, and the price had dopped 6%.
#154
What does that tell us? It must mean that Donnie is right? Right?
#161 – lol
…stop feeding the trolls…
sometimes the best answer is:
{………..crickets chirping………..]
sl
BC #159
Let’s assume you’re right. Who are we picking to implode first and when do we short?
cynicalgirl,
That’s interesting about the overpriced listings. I receive updates every day from three different realtors with current listings and every time I open the emails I break out in laughter because of the absurd prices. It appears as though some realtors are taking any and all listings.
Sad broken down looking bi-levels listed in the high 600s, etc. What are these sellers thinking? And what are some of these realtors thinking?
yeah the relo package is good, but is that a tipping point to buy at this time, thats the question. I have moved 3x now with the company and the same rules have applied so I have never paid for closing costs, points, inspections, so have made out well. But I wonder how long that will last when they get caught carrying homes that they cannot sell this time round.
call me crazy but I am going to look at some purchases and some rentals, and will lowball on a house that we may like just to see what happens. The trick is not falling for the house and getting into a negotiation.
#94 Donny Prices time time next year will be down at leat 15% or more.
Inventory in prestigious minutes from NYC Bergen county is growing by leaps and bounds, and we are already at June 1.
No Spring selling season this year, complete bust.
#153
NJ bound,
Have you checked out the Essex Fells, Caldwell, West Caldwell area for rentals? Although Essex Fells is very different from Caldwell/West Caldwell, it is right next door with some areas walking distance to Caldwell town center and a really nice park. It is quite close to Montville (much closer than Madison/Chatham) with a wonderful school (more like a small private school than public). How about North Caldwell for a rental. This town has newer homes than Essex Fells, again with some areas walking distance to downtown Caldwell.
PricesStillHigh,
Must be a GSMLS number as it’s not in NJMLS.
Gary,
Where si you get that MLS number?
NJ Bound,
My cousin’s company does the same for employees. During the last real estate boom, they bought a small cape cod in Yardley, PA. They owned it for 4 years and when they tried to sell, the company had to take a loss of $17,000. It definitely worked out for them.
I think that if your company continues to move employees around, it has to give guarantees.
#166 NJ bound
I would lean toward renting, especially as so many more rentals seem to be coming on the market. If you can find a one-year rental, that would be ideal, because it would permit you to get to know the surrounding area really well, go to a bunch of open houses, and really have your finger on the pulse if/when you buy in a year.
“Let’s assume you’re right. Who are we picking to implode first and when do we short?”
Make,
If I knew that I would be in la-la land with Donnie. That said, once the spreads begin to widen many will be squirming.
njpatient 171
I agree, only downside is that I would lose the benefits of closing costs, points etc being paid but I guess that is not too horrific on the buying end, and the fact that prices will have fallen will more than compensate. Nj is such a maze as well, it is tough to get the right town in a week of house hunting.
Willow I will look at those areas- do they have a downtown? I don’t remember seeing any in GSMLS or craigslist, but to be honest, rentals are still slim picking really, and I don’t think I can go to a townhouse or condo after having so much space for so many years- just a personal thing.
Rich #169,
I got it from realtor.com. The house is in North Caldwell.
#173
Yes, Caldwell has a downtown w/restaurants, movie theater, shops, community center with indoor pool/gym/exercise equipment. Even though Essex Fells is in Essex County, their taxes tend to be lower than what you would pay for the same property in Montclair. It has many lovely older homes with character. I love to drive through Essex Fells to look at the houes.
Rich#169,
It is a GSMLS number. Its in Randolph.
If you have some free time and feeling like being a nerd for a day…
It appears the market peaked during the 4th QT of 2005. Although 1st QT 2007, homes are still appreciated, they are doing so at a slower rate. Interesting to see if we could have a repeat of what happened in the housing market during the 1988 to 2000 time frame with very little appreciation. Having said that…..5 to 7 yrs of little appreciation, doesn’t seem to be an outlandish statement. Note: past performance has no bearing on the future.
——————————-
What is the House Price Index? – It is a measure designed to capture changes in the value of single-family homes in the U.S. as a whole. How is the HPI computed? – The HPI is a weighted, repeat-sales index, meaning that it measures average price changes in repeat sales or refinancings on the same properties.
To see the MSA data:
1) Go to the bottom and select MSAs to Compare
2) You want to select (A) Edison, (B) New York, White Plains, Wayne, NJ and (C) Newark Union
Edison – Middlesex, Monmouth, Ocean, and Somerset Counties
New York, etc – Bergen, Hudson, Passaic Counties
Newark Union – Essex, Hunterdon, Morris, Sussex, and Union Counties
http://www.ofheo.gov/HPIMSA.asp
Gary,
Sorry, can’t help you. It’s more than likely listed under GSMLS, which I don’t have access to.
PSSH,
Same, sorry.
Rich
1.4% decline is the average. For the one person here who lack basic math skills let me explain.
If the avg price drops 1.4% it doesn’t mean that every house will drop 1.4%. Some will drop less, some will drop much higher and some will even appreciate.
Regarding cul de sacs –
i grew up on a street with a cul de sac – this one had a curb and grass and a tree in the middle. the only thing about it that was bad was that after a few years people started to bring their dogs there. they seemed to think it was a perfect spot for their dogs to go to the bathroom – and this was before the pooper scooper laws.
No problem… thanks Rich!
PLEEEEEEEEZZZZZZZZ PUT IN A BID…PRETTY PLEEEEZZZZZZ
http://bp0.blogger.com/_VMSUn2TMfXo/Rl2iwIhVIaI/AAAAAAAAAVQ/JBQ3V6Vr_J4/s1600-h/crybaby.jpg
iT’S PAYBACK TIME BABY….
Bleed’em….Slug it out…No MAAS!
Can u feel the papapapapap PANIC?
BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAA
Bob
Russia bullies BP….How the aggressive behavior of the world’s second largest exporter could drive prices higher for everyone….”More and more oil is going to come from politically unstable countries,” ….”Either accept the fears and deal with it, or do something to limit demand.”
http://money.cnn.com/2007/06/01/news/international/russia_bp/index.htm?postversion=2007060112
tcm,
You beat me to it.
My aunt lives on a cul de sac. At the end and in back of her house, it’s woods – public land. Everyone walks their dogs there, and no one ever cleans up. It looks bucolic, but sometimes, on a hot summer day, it can smell.
All sorts of mysterious cars show up parked in front of her house and at the end of the road.
The house has been robbed twice, though not any time recently.
One of the thieves was so leisurely he went into the fridge and popped open a soda.
Can u feel it?
the papapapapap PANIC?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QaADnQzdyP8
Thanks Rich for trying.
2008 [184],
Gazprom.
Papapapa Panic is in the air…..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gz7gajAb2ww
NJ Bound,
I don’t know if this is too small for you but here’s a house you might want to look at in Caldwell:
http://homes.realtor.com/prop/1080437241
It costs less than what you were looking for but it is a great section of Caldwell (the “cedars”) that is tucked away but close to the park, downtown, walking distance to the elementary (Jefferson), middle (Grover Cleveland) and high school (James Caldwell). Taxes are $12,000. Most people wouldn’t consider this area because it doesn’t have a train to NYC but since you will be driving to Montville, it might be a possibility.
can jb or someone w/ GSMLS access pls tell me if MLS # 2365892 is still available?
thanks
willow, after your email I did a search and that one popped up. So I have asked the realtor to set something up- it does look pretty good,
thanks for verifying. Is Essex Falls OK too?
BC Bob…what’s the symbol?
#192
Essex Fells is lovely! Some of the homes can be far from the school (no busing to the elementary school and not many sidewalks) and Caldwell town center but it’s definitely worth a look. They feed into West Essex Regional School District along with Roseland, North Caldwell and Fairfield.
Thanks Willow, I found a couple in Essex Fells as well. Of course there is still the caveat that they are asking too much but we are now going to look at about 25 houses next week, the vast majority of them over 120 days on the market and a good number empty so perhaps something will come up, and of course we are looking at about 7 rentals.
I’m looking for feedback-
I put-together a nifty little FireFox Search Plugin for searching Realtor.com.
If you type in an MLS id, it will take you to the property page directly on Realtor.com.
I have this on my machine and can provide it for free (either give it to JB or even make it available on the Mozilla Firefox extensions site).
Question is – are there any implications to this- legally or otherwise?
2008,
It’s a Russian state-controlled natural gas firm. We’ll be hearing much more from them going forward.
Yea I’ve heard of them before…as well as the Lukoil. Looks like they are listed on the London exchange. They are quite a few mutual funds that have it in their holdings, not sure if I want to go that route.
2008,
I wasn’t suggesting an investment. It was just a response to your post regarding Russia bullying BP.
Article references Cali, but I think their housing mkt is similiar to the tri-state area.
——————-
While part of the real estate downturn is behind us now, the buyer’s market will likely continue for at least two more years, foreclosures are likely to surge and “we’re heading into a year with some more price declines,” a real estate consultant told an audience of building-industry professionals… “I know with a very high level of confidence that the number of foreclosures is going to surge,” he said, as a high volume of subprime loans and other adjustable-rate loans are headed for a major reset in rates…”It’s really going to occur — most of it — next year, so we’re going to see some foreclosures and just be prepared for that.”
http://www.inman.com/hstory.aspx?ID=63394
I know you didn’t suggest it, it was something that popped into my head.
NJ Bound,
If you want more info about the area, you can email me
willow16 at gmail dot com
If they take you to see a new listing in Caldwell on Forest Avenue (2411519 – asking $829,900) realize that it was bought in 2004 for $350,000 and, although they put a lot of work into it, the location does not warrant the asking price at all. It is on an extremely busy corner and there are accidents there all the time. They are going to address the cut-through traffic with speed tables so that might help.
Interesting story on who is buying all those toxic mortgages out there. This could be a real economic double whammy. Just as the economy takes a hit from the housing market, pension funds will get hit with losses from CDOP’s
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aW5vEJn3LpVw&refer=home
Banks Sell ‘Toxic Waste’ CDOs to Calpers, Texas Teachers Fund
By David Evans
June 1 (Bloomberg) — Bear Stearns Cos., the fifth-largest U.S. securities firm, is hawking the riskiest portions of collateralized debt obligations to public pension funds.
At a sales presentation of the bank’s CDOs to 50 public pension fund managers in a Las Vegas hotel ballroom, Jean Fleischhacker, Bear Stearns senior managing director, tells fund managers they can get a 20 percent annual return from the bottom level of a CDO.
“It has a very high cash yield to it,” Fleischhacker says at the March convention. “I think a lot of people are confused about what this product is and how it works.”
Worldwide sales of CDOs — which are packages of securities backed by bonds, mortgages and other loans — have soared since 2003, reaching $503 billion last year, a fivefold increase in three years. Bankers call the bottom sections of a CDO, the ones most vulnerable to losses from bad debt, the equity tranches.
They also refer to them as toxic waste because as more borrowers default on loans, these investments would be the first to take losses. The investments could be wiped out.
…
Many pension funds, facing growing numbers of retirees, are still reeling from investments that went sour after technology stocks peaked in March 2000. Fund managers buy equity tranches, which are also called “first loss” portions, even though those investments are never given a credit rating by Fitch Group Inc., Moody’s Investors Service or Standard & Poor’s.
…
The California Public Employees’ Retirement System, the nation’s largest public pension fund, has invested $140 million in such unrated CDO portions,
…
“I have trouble understanding public pension funds’ delving into equity tranches, unless they know something the market doesn’t know,” says Edward Altman, director of the Fixed Income and Credit Markets program at New York University’s Salomon Center for the Study of Financial Institutions.
“That’s obviously a very risky play,” he says. “If there’s a meltdown, which I expect, it will hit those tranches first.”
…
`Lipstick on a Pig’
Chriss Street, treasurer of Orange County, California, the fifth-most-populous county in the U.S., says no public fund should invest in equity tranches. He says fund managers are ignoring their fiduciary responsibilities by placing even 1 percent of pension assets into the riskiest portion of a CDO.
“It’s grossly inappropriate to take this level of risk,” he says. “Fund managers wanted the high yield, so Wall Street sold it to them. The beauty of Wall Street is they put lipstick on a pig.”
Seven percent of all the equity tranches sold in the U.S. in the past decade were purchased by pension funds, endowments and religious organizations, Fleischhacker says.
Public pension funds have bought more than $500 million in CDO equity tranches in the past five years, according to data from public records requests.
…
Last September, the Missouri retirement system bought half of the equity tranche of the BlackRock Senior Income Series 2006 collateralized loan obligation, managed by New York-based BlackRock Inc. A CLO is a CDO that invests exclusively in loans, not bonds.
`Das says banks have good intentions when they create a CDO; what they lack is control of the performance of subprime loans and other bad debt. “To just rely on somebody’s reputation is absolving your own fiduciary responsibility as a manager,” he says.
…
Street says the big risks taken by public pension funds managers to juice up their investment performance with CDO equity tranches could result in big losses. Those tranches are filled with risky debt, which is sometimes in the form of subprime mortgages, he says.
“Very few pension plans could meet their fiduciary duty by buying portfolios of subprime loans,” he says. “They spiked up the yield, but that yield means nothing when the defaults start to mount, as we know they will. The funds will take big losses.”
Foreclosure filings in the U.S. jumped to 147,708 in April, up 62 percent from a year earlier, as subprime borrowers stopped making mortgage payments, according to data released by research company RealtyTrac Inc. on May 15.
As foreclosures rise, the subprime-mortgage-backed securities in CDOs begin to crumble.
`Smoke and Mirrors’
Chippeaux says she knows there are subprime loans in the New Mexico fund’s CDO investments. Wollman says he’s confident New Mexico doesn’t hold many of the poorest-performing subprime loans that were made at the height of the real estate boom in 2006.
“One of the things that’s going to be helpful to us is that we don’t have a lot of exposure to 2006 subprime loans,” he says. “I think that is going to help us deflect any exposure should subprime collapse.”
How do realtor fees work for rentals? I called a realtor about one of her listings where the fee is one month’s rent. However, she wants to show me other places that are listed with other realtors. Will I be paying a double fee in this instance?
#177 200 Buyer Ar eyou saying rpices went up 1st quarter of 07?
sorry should be prices
dink,
definitely not. The one month fee gets split between the two realtors. Remember rents are negotiable too.
also realize that if you are comparing realtor listed rentals vs. rentals listed by landlords, compare rents using an 11 month timeframe.
e.g.
rental through realtor: 2000/mo
actual rent received by landlord: 1833/mo
therefore a comparable rental through a landlord should be $1833/mo
No, really, this is too easy.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070601/ap_en_tv/house_flipper_investigation
Donald, there’s a job open for you when your unemployment runs out…
Your Home May Be Your Worst Investment
http://biz.yahoo.com/fool/070518/117951154741.html?.v=1&.pf=real-estate
The NYMEX,COMEX and NYSE floors will soon be history. Morgan Stanley recently laid off 50% of their NYSE floor employees. IB is moving east and operations are being outsourced. In conjunction with this, quants are in heavy demand, trading. They can set up their blackboxes in the Alps or Broad & Wall. Something for the Gold Coasters to think about?
“The New York Mercantile Exchange is reportedly cutting back on its trading floor as its electronic trading platform takes off, reflecting similar moves by NYSE in the wake of regulatory changes.”
http://www.financialnews-us.com/?page=ushome&contentid=2447900759
My dirty little secret (no, the other one…): I welcome price corrections, even drop-by-drop ones prolonged over time like some narrative device from an Edgar Allen Poe short story.
Why? Asset bubbles frighten me. I spent much of the ’90s Internet IPO-fueled boom on the sidelines. I didn’t prosper directly (IRAs and 401 (k) did pretty well, though); nor did I lose my shirt watching Yahoo ebb like a slow-motion car wreck, as some overleveraged true believers did.
I was lucky to buy my house when I did-1998. In fact, that’s my advice to all prospective homeowners: “Buy in 1998.” And since then, I have watched with a bemused sort of horror as tar shingle crapboxes rose in value to the mid six “didgits.” To quote Chris Rock, “That ain’t RIGHT.”
I don’t have any plans to sell at least till my genius children graduate from Leonia High School at ages 11 and 13, natch [rolls eyes]. (Said kids are now watching Pokemon, drooling, and working off a sugar high. So I may have to recalibrate that projection…). So naturally I’m kinda curious to know what my home is worth under the worst possible circumstances. (My family’s crest has a motto [translated from Latin]: “function in disaster; finish in style.” But my own personal creed is, “prepare for the worst and hope for the best.”)
BNY (210): It’s NOT an investment; it’s my home. I liken it more to forced savings. Unwittingly, I bought low, so I may squeeze a small appreciation when I sell (very small, after one considers mortgage interest, taxes, insurance and improvements after taxes). But unless you’re very good and very lucky (like Donald, The and MM), you’re nuts to consider your home an investment.
Rent (36)-
Sorry for the slow comebacks…I’ve actually had to work lately.
Cul-de-sac, baby!
And, here’s a funny article- from this month’s Realtor Magazine online- to start your weekend. It’s sort of a “Short Sale 101”:
http://go-to.realtor.org/h/SUTYD/EKITU/D5/GF2M6
Hey Donald…when our trade publications start writing articles on short sales, the market ain’t so hot.
These fools bought from a flipper about 6 months ago, and just put the house up for sale:
MLS 2411953
Has buying a home become like buying a pair of jeans?
To Boooya Bob,
It’s June 1. Inventory has swelled to the size of a wild Alabama hog. YOY sales are somewhere through the floor. Month over Month sales are declining during what is supposed to be the peak selling season.
so in answer to your question: YES
I’m feeling the panic. You hear it in people’s voices and see it in the nervous ticks on the realtor’s faces. The air is thick with it, just like those hot August days just before the thunder shower breaks.
“I don’t have any plans to sell at least till my genius children graduate from Leonia High School at ages 11 and 13, natch [rolls eyes].”
I graduated from Leonia High School. Say hello to Mr. Bertolini for me, would you?
Because it’s Friday, and in honor of Bob:
BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAA!!!
No, no short sales for me. I am experienced at this. I let my apartment in Manhattan sit on the amrket for 2 years! I rejected 2 lowballs and one another offer because the buyer refused to go up by another $5,000. That is right, I let the deal fall through for $5k. But, in the end, I won and I showed the buyers who was boss. The day before my listing agreement with my realtor expired, I accepted an offer for full asking price. My profit was about $400,000.
Donald,
Since you didn’t pick up on this fact, I will inform you that Jamey already knew that you graduated from Leonia High.
“But unless you’re very good and very lucky (like Donald,”
I did not know I was lucky. I will take compliments any day. Just curious, how am I lucky?
did you sell your house yet?
Sarcasm, dear boy. Sarcasm.
“did you sell your house yet?”
I don’t know. Did your rent go up yet?
How are you lucky, Donald, The, you ask?
You’re lucky that people consider you silly, rather than dangerous.
I laugh when I hear about all the “declines” in new construction. In my area, construction is going full steam ahead. Fort Lee is going to be building a $1 billion residential/commercial complex, Cliffside Park has two new condo towers under construction and a town center going up (thanks to eminent domain), and Edgewater is also going to be getting a new retail complex called i-park. Ridgefield Park is going to be getting an Avalon rental complex. And do not even get me started on all the developments on the Hudson County waterfront. The list is endless. And even though K Hov is losing money, they recently started building a 45 story residential tower in Jersey City called 77 Hudson.
And you guys are 100% correct when you say “Condos for everyone.” Unfortuantely, those “condos for everyone” will be over-priced flips. As construction is occurring on the Gold Coast, I can just about hear the flippers taking out their check books…
Donald,
Tell us the details of you 15% property tax cut.
Rich
Property tax cut. YEAH! YEAH!
http://www.newsday.com/news/local/wire/newjersey/ny-bc-nj–propertytaxes0403apr03,0,4064608.story
http://www.newsday.com/news/nationworld/nation/ny-ustax085084976feb08,0,6237538.story
http://www.politicsnj.com/roberts-praises-codey-support-permanent-property-tax-cuts-8854
Tax Cut:
http://www.politicsnj.com/roberts-praises-codey-support-permanent-property-tax-cuts-8854
“And even though K Hov is losing money, they recently started building a 45 story residential tower in Jersey City called 77 Hudson.”
…..and tonight on fast money Ara states the industry sucks. Hov is currently trading below book value.
Hey everyone,
Get ready to flee New Jersey.
Coming to your Neighborhood:
http://www.politicsnj.com/corzine-s-100-000-low-income-housing-units-another-nail-new-jersey-s-coffin-8496
“Tax Cut”
Donnie,
Only a simpleton would tout that charade.
Donald #232,
Steve Lonegan is a joke.
Beside the fact that you’re so naive to think you’ll see a 15% cut, I’m more amazed at the fact that you’re pulling in less than $150,000 and plan on moving to Alpine.
Amazed that I plan on moving to Alpine? Interesting, I looked at 2 houses that are within my price range. Not everyone up there is rich. There are middle class people who live in modest homes.
This house is well below my price range so I could buy it and add on:
http://njmls.com/cf/details.cfm?mls_number=2715780&id=999999
There is also another hosue that I really liked, but it is not in the MLS. The owners were unbale to find a buyer so they are renting it out. If I make an offer, they will accept.
Donald (238)-
Keep it up, dude. You’re more fun than an all-midget tractor pull.
#228 Donny: Please get help lad;you need it. We care.
Donald (238)-
Is that 700K slophole the Bates Motel?
#234 BC Simpleton. Theres that word again, I love it.
#225 No my rent unchanged again, and the owner relieved that I am going to hang out for awhile. Why wouldn’t I? The fun is just starting.
3b (242)-
Are you an XTC fan? “Mayor of Simpleton”?
Great, messed-up pop songs. I loved those guys.
#227 Condo half off and more for every one!!!!! In a state that is falling apart!! We love you DONNY!!!!!! What a Bull, and fine spokesman for real estate.
Watch and learn child;the adults will show you how it is done.
#220 Donny: You telling talll tales agaim. “It was this big Mommy”
“The owners were unbale to find a buyer so they are renting it out.”
……..sounds like your luck and your neighbors luck is rubbing off on them. HMMN? Nobody can sell.
From grandma;
May you have the hindsight to know where you’ve been, The foresight to know where you are going, And the insight to know when you have gone too far.
ádh mór
#214 Clot: Lots of anxious sellers? Or at least thats what my realtor contact tells me.
3b (248)-
My mantra to sellers: Get real or get crushed.
The ones who take my cure get healed. The ones who don’t get poleaxed (plus an adult-sized dose of my brand of “tough love”). If they fight with me and pi$$ me off, I tell ’em to do a cashout refi and buy all the PCU they can get their hands on (all disclaimers). Damn byatches wouldn’t know a stock if it busted ’em between the eyes (unless it was some dotcom-era POS). They think a 7% dividend is for Grandpa in Florida. Dumb f**s
Really pathetic dealing with some fool who has a 1M net worth completely tied up in RE… and burning cash faster than a garbage incinerator in Newark.
when is Yen going to turn? ever? I have been waiting for months now…
MJ,
Joined at the hip with the dollar. The biggest benefactor of the carry? The BOJ.
Hey Don,
Looks like I am getting a tax-cut too.
http://www.newsday.com/news/nationworld/nation/ny-ustax085084976feb08,0,6237538.story
says NYers are jealous b/c NJ will include renters.
Okay, so this is the second (3rd) day in a row now that this thread has been dedicated almost exclusively to some snot-nose kid named Donnieboy? Who really gives a flying F*ck! How pathetic….
Isn’t
Okay, so this is the second (3rd) day in a row now that this thread has been dedicated almost exclusively to some snot-nose kid named Donnieboy? Who really gives a flying F*ck! How pathetic….
Isn’t anything slightly more interesting to discuss than humoring this retard with an ongoing dialogue?
Bill, it’s BEACH WEATHER!
That’s kinda interesting, no? There were few shoppers at Wegman’s this morning..had the place to myself.
Three moving vans as I glanced several blocks down the street in my little town in PA.
Lots of reduced rents and special deals over here.
Why do things seem to be winding down to a dull lull, somehow? It’s hard to describe. Maybe it’s just the quiet turn from spring to summer.
I agree with Contractor Bill (253 & 254), but have to add just one thing about this Donald. You had an apartment in Manhattan that sat on the market for TWO YEARS before you found a sucker to buy it? Man, that must’ve been one scary-lookin’ place to sit for TWO YEARS. Hope for your sake–and for ours (the other people on this blog)–you sell your mysterious house tomorrow.
Oh, yeah, Bill..this is something you’d be interested in. The marketing job on those “outdoor living areas” is doing the trick.
Three acquaintances have just sent out their certified mail notices to all their neighbors about their “new additions.” Every one of them is basically taking out their perfectly fine deck, re-discovering the old fifties concrete slab patio underneath, putting up some kind of overhang/roof thing, and then adding a built-in grill/fireplace. I guess it’s better than in the 70’s when people put up those flat plywood frames with the green wavy plastic stuff on top as a roof.
It’s a hoot, isn’t it?
Contractor (254)-
I dunno…this guy Donnie is pretty damn funny. Definitely the best troll ever on this board. All out, full-frontal idiocy.
And, the second-best story of the past 2-3 weeks is the stock market. That’s great for some of us (I personally find stocks 10x more interesting than RE…and I’m in RE), but only a little subset of our whole gang seems to hang out here when the talk turns to Wall Street.
Ok, can someone explain this to me one more time because sometimes I tend to have blinders on and need an unbiased, third party view to knock some sense into me.
Once again (probably the 28th time), I’m looking at these new 2800 sq. foot homes in the Lehigh Valley area on half acre parcels with $4,500 in taxes priced in the low 300s and I’m wondering where the ‘gotcha’ comes in.
Now, I know decent jobs are not easy to come by and a commute towards Philly or towards NY is probably a given but can someone please explain to me what the apparent downside is to living there?
Is it a weird, strange place? Are people missing teeth. Are the schools dreadful? Besides the job thing, why is it so much cheaper to live there? Why am I looking at broken down pieces of sh*t homes for $600,000 and $10,000 in taxes here when I see beautiful homes with a view… there?
Please explain this to me in a subtle, gentle, child-like manner because my wife is thisclose to strangling me.
Thank you very much. ; )
Wall Street. Stocks. Investing.
Either you trade, or you don’t. Not such an exciting spectator sport if you’re not in the game.
Lots of folks are just trapped in their limited choices of funds in their 401(k) plans (or so they think).
From the Herald News:
State says she can’t account for $500,000 in aid
The director of a pre-K program cannot account for nearly $500,000 in state funds she received in 2005-06, according to an audit by the state Department of Education.
Some of the money went to shopping sprees at stores like Victoria’s Secret, a personal loan to an employee and to make a home mortgage payment, according to the report.
…
The education department has referred the audit to the state Attorney General’s Office for review, said department spokesman Rich Vespucci. Reviewing the school’s books, state investigators could not determine the source of funds for certain payments, including a $7,000 loan to one of Leibowitz’s employees, which the audit said was later repaid.
The report also said checks worth $44,668 were written out to petty cash, but that Leibowitz could not say where the money went. Leibowitz also used state money to make a $3,661 personal mortgage payment and recorded charges to Kohl’s, Jin’s Nail, Mary Unisex Beauty and Hosiery Planet that auditors could not prove were to help the school. Auditors also found that Leibowitz could not provide receipts for all of $360,000 in various debit card charges and nearly $50,000 in additional discretionary spending.
From the APP:
Slam the brakes on gas tax hike
New Jersey has the lowest gasoline prices in the nation and the third lowest state gasoline tax. It’s about the only tax in New Jersey that isn’t the highest, or among the highest, in the country. Gov. Corzine this week hinted that may change. Our hint to the governor: Don’t even think about it.
Frustrated by his attempts to find new ways to wring more money from taxpayers to finance pet transportation, education, health care and affordable housing projects and to cover escalating public employee pensions and health care costs — a problem he has done little to address — Corzine said an increase in the gasoline tax may be necessary.
“It’s certainly something we have to take into consideration in regard to our transportation capital needs and financial needs for mass transit in particular, so we’ll review that,” Corzine said.
Implicit in his remarks was that if he didn’t succeed in getting the Legislature to swallow his scheme to leverage the state’s toll roads and other assets or allow itself to be held hostage to his threat to block an open space referendum question, he would be forced to raise the gasoline tax. Former Gov. James E. McGreevey tried to do it during his administration, proposing a 12.5-cent-a-gallon increase in 2003. Public outcry made him think better of it. Any similar attempt by Corzine should be greeted with the same intense opposition.
Clotpoll, when it comes to humor value, how could those Kannekt Kurmudgeons possibly have blocked Don’s IP address? I can’t believe they blacklisted him. Stupid.
“And, the second-best story of the past 2-3 weeks is the stock market”
Clot,
Laggard.
You do mean certain stocks that are part of the market, not the stock market? Only interested if it moves dirt, is extracted from the dirt, ships or is a natural resource. Can somebody wake up the small caps? Nasdaq still 50% off it’s 2000 high, real terms?
More interesting to me, is Kuwait’s initial move away from the dollar. However, like you stated, nobody wants to discuss. Unfortunately, at this time, Donnie is the best/most entertaining game in town.
I hope the governor rises gasoline taxes multiple times to keep the stupid people with the enormous SUV off the streets of NJ. Also I hope they sell the GSP and Turnpike and raise the tolls multiple times. Maybe then the people of NJ wake up and get rid of the dumb politicians in NJ. Until then, pay up.
So clot, what do you think of (CROX) day late/ dollar short? Or is there still opportunity for short term gains?
#259
Gary,
The Lehigh Valley can be a gamble if you have school age children. A classmate of my daughter moved to Bethlehem 2 1/2 years ago. I ran into the mom at a party and they had already decided to put the older daughter in private high school. The schools just weren’t even close to what they left (not a top tier NJ school but very respectable). They moved for the same reasons you are looking there – great $300,000 house on a big lot rather than a small house on a tiny lot. The dad still commutes to Newark every day.
In looking around out there, check out Salisbury and East Penn school districts. They seem to be respectable. One is small and the other is a large regional.
Willow #267,
Thank you so much for the input. Any insight on the Catholic Schools?
Yeah Pat, It is a hoot. I’m so glad I’m not caught up in trying to keep up with the Jones. However, I must say the more the merrier as these fools certainly contribute to my bottom line. If I only had a warehouse to store some of the kitchen cabinets, bathroom vanities, doors, etc. that people throw out.
Check this out: I do a lot of trim carpentry and subsequently salvage exterior trim boards off fascia, rake, soffit, etc. Here’s the funny part: I then run them through my molding machine, creating new base mold/casing and sell them back to….(chuckle,chuckle) you guessed it!
Anyone planning to goto Randolph DMV to renew driver licenses (only), their system is down and won’t be back until Monday. Save a trip.
From yesterday’s The Record:
Your commute could cost more: NJ Transit fare hike takes effect Friday
NJ Transit passengers will pay about 10 percent more beginning Friday for bus and train tickets. The price of a single-zone bus trip will increase by 8 percent, to $1.35. The agency’s board approved the fare increase in April to close a $60 million budget gap.
The agency also modified its rush-hour timetable. Riders who board trains before 7 a.m. will get a 15 percent discount on one-way tickets.
The fare increase also affects:
• Monthly and one-way train tickets will cost 10 percent more.
• Interstate and multi-zone local bus fares will cost 10 percent more.
• Hudson-Bergen Light Rail monthly passes will rise by 9.4 percent.
for bergen county-ites. Abma farms (Wyckoff) having their Family Farm Day today.
And in Hackensack: BC courthouse pkg lot. Annual Gem, Mineral, Fossil and Jewelry show 10a– 5pm.
? worth the trip to “pinch some tails ;-)” – Annual Crawfish festival (like a mini New Orleans) at Augusta in the Sussex county Fairgrounds on line at crawfishfest.com cost $30 though :(
Me… I gotta go plant 4 flats of flowers… :)
sl
#268
Gary,
The two I know of are Bethlehem Catholic High School and Allentown Central Catholic High School. I don’t really know much about them.
From the AP:
‘Flip This House’ star accused of fraud
On an episode of A&E’s popular reality series “Flip This House,” Atlanta businessman Sam Leccima sits in front of a run-down house and calls buying and selling real estate his passion.
Now authorities and legal filings claim that Leccima’s true passion was a series of scams that included faking the home renovations shown on the cable TV show and claiming to have sold houses he never owned.
“This is, indeed, a con artist,” said Sonya McGee, an Atlanta pharmaceutical representative who says Leccima took $4,000 from her in an investment scheme.
McGee and others say Leccima’s episodes of “Flip This House,” A&E’s most popular show, were elaborate hoaxes. His friends and family were presented as potential homebuyers and “sold” signs were slapped in front of unsold houses. They say the home repairs—the lynchpin of the show—were actually quick or temporary patch jobs designed to look good on camera.
Leccima says he never claimed to own the homes. While not acknowledging his televised renovations were staged, he didn’t deny it and suggested that A&E and Departure Films, the production company that makes the show, knew exactly what he was doing.
“Ask anybody who works in television how a reality show is made and you’ll find that ours was a very typical approach,” Leccima said in a telephone interview.
Thank you, Willow.
And now $1B home….
From the BBC website:
Dream home of India’s richest man
Details have emerged of a huge new building in Mumbai that is being built by India’s richest man, Mukesh Ambani.
His skyscraper home in the city will be over 170m tall and will have an army of 600 staff to manage it.
Its 27 floors on a 4,532 sq metre plot will provide a panoramic view of the entire city of Mumbai (Bombay) once it is completed next year.
With the country’s economy soaring, India’s commercial city is poised to have many more such skyscrapers.
Construction of the family home is well under way.
‘Full view’
The son of a former petrol pump attendant who went on to build a business empire, Mukesh Ambani is reportedly spending $1bn on his new home.
Sorry – forgot link….here it is:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/6712605.stm
hoodafa,
If that house was being built in God’s country, also known as Northern New Jersey, it would easily go for $2.2bn at least!
I’ve been watching Flip That House Updated this morning on TLC. Wow! Out of the three that I’ve watched, one didn’t sell at all so the flipper moved in, one flipper only made $20,000 profit after a lot of carrying costs and one the realtor told flippers that they could definitely get between $600,000 and $650,000 for their craftsman in CA. They got $535,000 and made $100,000 profit after $30,000 commission and $10,000 closing costs.
I have seen this show before but it’s great to see the reality of flipping in the updates.
Yeah, gary, but at least in NJ he could b*tch and moan and get a reval done after a few years and get it down to 1.9b.
Gary –
I regret not having bought in the Lehigh Valley years ago (near Kintnersville). Friends of mine have over an acre yard, small house (NJ ranch sized, but dirt cheap when they bought), both teenagers went to the local regional public school and were accepted to excellent colleges (such as NYU), interesting high school clubs and activities, no pollution, and congestion.
So in the end I’m the poor NJ sucker.
Can anyone pull an address for MLS#: 2411529 in Rahway?
Thanks in advance.
MS,
I keep swaying in my head… It’s definitely food for thought.
Future condos?
“Major Wall Street firms continue to pull personnel off the New York Stock Exchange’s once vital trading floor, with Lehman Brothers being the latest brokerage to shutter its remaining floor trading operations.”
“Meanwhile, Jefferies is also pondering the future of its NYSE presence, according to a knowledgeable trader. Its Jefferies Execution Services – known to many NYSE veterans as Lawrence Helfant LLC before it was acquired by Jefferies in 2001 – is conducting an extensive review of its presence at the Big Board to determine whether it’s economically feasible to remain on the floor.”
“While NYSE executives make consistently optimistic statements about keeping the NYSE’s floor trading tradition alive, privately, they appear to be stunned at the reduction in floor-based activity.”
http://www.nypost.com/seven/06012007/business/lehman_is_latest_to_get_off_the_floor_business_roddy_boyd.htm
Contractor Bill Says:
June 2nd, 2007 at 8:15 am
Okay, so this is the second (3rd) day in a row now that this thread has been dedicated almost exclusively to some snot-nose kid named Donnieboy? Who really gives a flying F*ck! How pathetic….
Isn’t
====================
heehehehehehhehe!
BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
Bob
JB… thanks for your thoughts on the AZ market in the other long-Donald thread! It was similar to the thoughts I had when we went to FL in April. I expected to see tumbleweeds & homelessness after the reading I’d done, but the real estate market I’d read about didn’t “show” even though I looked for it. Sounds like AZ was the same. I wonder if it’s b/c so much of the $$ invested in AZ & FL were second homes bought? Maybe it’s where those buyers actually live that “shows” more trouble?
Hi all * off topic *
Somebody posted last week, regarding how to go to a car dealer with and invoice in hand? is that thru edmunds? what is the best way to shop on the internet first and then go to dealer? I think it was mentioned what charges are bogus and which charges can not be removed? If anyone can help on this , let me know
Thanks
KL
KL, if you want to search njrereport archives for “invoice” (as an example) you can do this in google:
site:njrereport.com invoice
hth
Pat #280
Absolutely!!
KL #287,
Yes, we did it on our last purchase. Get the invoice price and print it out. If the dealer doesn’t want to hear it, say thank you and leave.
The chargeback price is one that should be subtracted from your purchase. This is a 2% to 3% charge the manufacturer charges the dealer for letting the car sit on the lot. Tell the dealer to take that off. This can an additional $850 off a 30K car.
Another charge is things like etched glass security. Cross it off. Again, if they give you grief say buh bye.
Also, consider a leftover. That should knock another couple of thousand off the price.
When we bought our car a few years ago, the list was 30.5K. When we walked out of the dealer, we signed with a purchase price of 22.5K. Start with that invoice and do not bend!!
I hope this helps. :)
kbb.com has invoice prices on vehicles and all options.
The way to negotiate, is to pay a percentage above invoice price, rather than down from “sticker price.”
(Some people try and apply an “I’m paying only $500 over invoice price” mentality but there’s a difference when a dealer has to carry a $60,000 vehicle vs a $20,000 vehicle, and it’s unrealistic to expect the same markup for both.)
On my last vehicle, I paid 3.5% over invoice price (vehicle and options), and felt I got a fair deal.
Good luck!
Re #274 – Flip that house
The name say of the show and it’s premise says scam to me. Of course the show is about creating false reality. The premise of these shows is to “document” how one slaps some crappy paint on the walls and calls it value added. In actuality what has happened is a stage and set treatment that looks good on tv but will last less than a year.
Most of these shows are nothing more than mcfixes and mcpaints, with no long-term value, just some immediate gratification “eye candy” to hype the fantasy that us greedy Americans are so eager to accept.
Are the folks at A&E and Departure criminals for documenting this lie? I don’t think so. But they love feeding from this scam, and it’s a huge part of their business plan.
The amount of flexibility you have on negotiating on a new car depends on how desirebale the car is. When I went to purchase a Honda, the dealer would not give me a single dollar off. When I tried to bluff him by saying that I will go elsewhere, he could not care less. He said that if I did not buy the car, someone else would. Remember, you do not have a right to negotiate. It is a privilege.
#292
So what if “staging” is faking a house? It is not a scam. Would you buy a house for top daollar with pink walls and clutter all over the place? I think not.
“Remember, you do not have a right to negotiate. It is a privilege.”
Now THAT is a classic. Classic-ly stupid. Of course you have the right to negotiate. There’s no privilege involved. The person you are negotiating with has the right to tell you to buzz off if they don’t like your negotiations, but you have every right to try to negotiate. But go ahead – if you think you do not have any such privilege, just go on in and buy a car or your next house at whatever price is first offered!
Like I said, it depends on what you are buying. If you are in a Chevy dealership, do not buy anyhting unless you get money off. In a Toyota dealership, you can negotiate, but don’t expect any discounts. If you are buying a house in Wyckoff, try to get money off the price. If you are buying a new condo in Hoboken from the developer, you should negotiate, but do not plan on getting any money off.
After careful consideration, I think I know why everyone here attacks me left and right. You are angry at people like myself. You are out there trying to find a house for a bargain, but sellers are asking 2005 prices, or prices even higher in some cases. You feel that you should be able to buy a house for 25% less than 05 prices, but you can’t find anyone to do that. I am your scapegoat, the source of your anger. You want sellers to drop their prices according to the latest housing statistics, but even if they dropped the price 1.4%, you would still not get a bargain because the price is so high.
You also get angry at sellers when they reject your lowball. You come on to this blog to vent your anger of the seller that rejected the low offer. I am one of those sellers, so you take your anger out on me.
Well, now that I am off my soap box, happy bargain hunting. I will sell my house before you find that “perfect” bargain.
fyi 1 US Dollar = 1.06136 Canadian Dollar
1 Canadian Dollar (CAD) = 0.94219 US Dollar (USD)
Interbank rate +/- 0%
This means:
You buy 1 US Dollar : 1.06136 Canadian Dollar
You sell 1 US Dollar : 1.06036 Canadian Dollar
You buy 1 Canadian Dollar : 0.94219 US Dollar
You sell 1 Canadian Dollar : 0.94308 US Dollar
“Flip that house
The name say of the show and it’s premise says scam to me.”
I LOVE staging. What’s the number for Designed to Sell? I need them in here ASAP! I want Donna to insult my house. I love it when she does that. Also, send over Clive. I am a big fan of British accents.
My favorite Donna Freeman quote:
“The 1980’s called and they want their chandlier back.”
Real Estate TV Alert
“The Real Deal” Tonight @ 9:00PM on TLC
I think “My First House” follows @ 10, same channel.
Sunday @ 10PM: “Bought & Sold” featuring real estate deals in Northern NJ.
Don #282
Donald, you are right, moving a piece of furniture to sell a house isn’t a scam.
My reference was to stage and set treatments, a craft of the film/tv industry which I’ve worked in for 15 years. This is the practice of creating illusions.
I personally know the guys at Departure Films and the production staff at A&E, and in the past I’ve rented them the gear they work with.
These makeover shows in general are well-edited illusions designed for drama value, and aren’t created to seek the truth. The so-called “designers” are usually actors.
Flipping houses in general seems to me to be nothing more than the practice of shortcuts, half-measures, and quick-fixes.
My opinion is that you can’t trust the work when it’s done for speed and profit.
Come on now Donald, just because you took a $96K hit on your house, don’t get paranoid.
This deal’s for you:
Jun 28, 2006 – $939,000 (MLS 2294110)
Aug 19, 2006 – $895,000
Sep 07, 2006 – $865,000
Oct 18, 2006 – $839,000
Nov 06, 2006 – $795,000
Nov 28, 2006 – $739,000
Dec 17, 2006 – Attorney Review
Dec 20, 2006 – Under Contract
Mar 29, 2007 – Back on Market
Mar 30, 2007 – $739,000 (MLS # 2391429)
Apr 02, 2007 – Attorney Review
Apr 13, 2007 – Under Contract
Jun 01, 2007 – Closed @ $730,000
Took the seller 12 months and $210,000 in price drops to find a buyer.
That seller should have kept the price at $939K and showed prospective buyers who’s boss!
From WJAC in Penn.
Altoona Considers Lawsuit Against New Jersey
Altoona Mayor Wayne Hippo said much more research is needed before the city would consider filing a lawsuit against the state of New Jersey for allegedly urging its welfare recipients to move to Altoona for low-income housing.
Hippo said he’s been working with the police to investigate the New Jersey natives turned Altoona residents, and he said they’re definitively connected to recent crime in Blair County — including drug rings and shootings.
I’d take an untouched 1950s Jersey cape (complete with harvest gold appliances) before I’d remotely consider anything touched by a flipper or do-it-yourselfer.
jb
As a matter of fact, the same goes for some of the new construction I’ve seen.
jb
Besides being dated…..I never understood the FOOLS (buyers) of “SELL THIS HOUSE” TV show.
I don’t get it…in other words they don’t see themselves within the TV episode being taken by these obnoxious wisexsses?
Does the show’s (directors/producers) help with the cost of the house, or are buyser/sellers are nothing but cheap pawns like the other so called reality shows, where the owner of the show makes all the money directly from other peoples misery.
Maybe they believe the house will be worth more in the future because of its provenance? Like when a home is featured in Architectural Digest or Better Homes and Gardens?
jb
This is the first I’ve heard of the ‘Gateway’ project in the Rutgers part of New Brunswick. Based on the few details in this article, I really like it.
The ambitious $130 million Gateway plan calls for closing College Avenue to traffic and convert ing the street into a mile-long green space stretching from the train station to the edge of campus.
A high-rise building, financed and built by New Brunswick’s development corporation, would stand at the entrance, and the Gateway Center would house a new Rutgers visitors’ center, bookstore, parking garage, retail shops and 200 condominiums.
In addition, the plan includes a new academic building at College Avenue and Hamilton Street. The 1950s-era dorms along the Raritan River would be replaced with new housing and a new dining hall. The current dining hall — Brower Commons — would be transformed into a one-stop-shopping center for stu dent services. Plans also call for revitalization of the aging residential neighborhoods largely made up of student rental housing near College and Easton avenues.
Source: http://www.nj.com/news/ledger/middlesex/index.ssf?/base/news-2/118067514525610.xml&coll=1
I’d take an untouched 1950s Jersey cape…
Amen!
“Tumbled tile” and styrofoam exteriors of today are the vinyl flooring (in the “look” of tile) and maintenance-free aluminum siding of the ’70s.
Rich
I saw a new NJ legal forum http://WWW.JERSEYLEGALFORUMS.COM
I was flipping channels and noticed two shows – “Flip that house” on A&E and
“Flip this house” on TLC.
I dunno which one I was watching (flipping between the two), and I noticed gas prices in the background at 2.30c.
Oh my God I can’t believe how weak our dollar has become. Thank you very much George W. Bush!
Donald Says:
June 2nd, 2007 at 8:07 pm
After careful consideration, I think I know why everyone here attacks me left and right.
The Donald: You are being attacked because you are a troll and you are here due to your own frustration. If you have the flexibility, then get the price that you believe you deserve. If you are under duress, I would suggest that you capitulate, because conditions will only get worse for at least the next 12-24 months. The cavalry is not coming. People stupid enough to pay your price probably will not have the resources to fund their impulse.
…you are here due to your own frustration.
An amen AND a Halleluiah!!
PS …next 12-24 months.
You’re too kind. Longer. VERY slowly, but longer.
Example:
SLD HAWORTH AVE $230,000 12/16/1987
SLD HAWORTH AVE $275,000 10/19/1999
19.6% over 12 years… 1.6% per year…
The average for inflation during that 12 year period..? I don’t know. Less than 1.6%, I doubt it.
But it’s now availble 8 years later for only 134.5%… no wait, price reduced, 130.5% more.
Bill (266)-
I actually like CROX as a long-term play. It is a fine company that absolutely owns its niche…a niche that it created. As a trade thru the summer, though, I think it stinks. Everything about it says “bear raid”. As soon as the volume dies down- and the volatility goes up- on this stock, the hedgies are gonna try to drive it into the dirt again.
And all the shorts who’ve gotten squeezed multiple times on this thing will succeed in beating it down. I think that’ll be your entry point.
Grim-
How the heck did #317 get moderated?
Top o’the morn to you! How’s your sculling working out? Seen any “floaters” yet?
Donald (297)-
Nobody here seems angry at you. However, lots of people are laughing at you, because you’re completely tone-deaf when it comes to reading the market for your home.
“fyi 1 US Dollar = 1.06136 Canadian Dollar”
“Oh my God I can’t believe how weak our dollar has become. Thank you very much George W. Bush!”
House of Cards/Contractor Bill,
You guys are on target. The RE market is easy, the biggest bust of our lifetime. Take it one step further, RE highs are in, draw the resistance lines, that’s it for at least the next 20-30 years, probably forever. These bubbles come once in a lifetime, it’s over move on. 30-40% off 2005 highs, by 2011. A 3 bdrm, 1-1/2 bath is a place to live, nothing more, nothing less, 500K plus 10-15K taxes? JOKE! Ponzi and PT Barnum are rolling in their graves. Just blow out the ill informed,the dreamers, the delusional and move on. Please, commodities are traded in the pits of Chicago and NY, at least for the time being, not at your local Sunday open house.
That said,the bigger issue,[contractor bill, house of cards] is our paper backed by good faith. The Kuwaite’s told us where this is going, as have the Commie’s, the Ruskie’s and the soon to be deposed Saudi monarch. Problem is nobody is listening. The almighty dollar? Finished/toast. Elvis Patterson. Very sad! Believe me, I’m not happy about it. However, if it’s presented to you on a silver platter, you would be foolish not to profit from it.
Demand? Yes. Terrorism? Yes. On the flip side, what % of the current price of energies, is inherent to compensate the producers for what they are losing in dollars? Akin to 1979, weak dollar? What could be worse? Just wait until crude,heat and gas is priced in another currency by all our foreign partners. It’s coming. We are on the verge of holding worthless global dollars. Our world-wide purchasing power will be, let’s just say subprime. But our Dow is at record highs[in depreciating dollars]. We are richer. Break open the champagne.
OK, The rich do get richer [for the time being],but there is no economic value created. Excess liquidity demands PE borrow it, load it up with debt, slice the tranches, create another IPO, more fees, and sell it to last years chasing investor. Maoism meets capitalism and Blackstone gets first digs at the insider deals. Marriage made in heaven.
OK, money supply grows at 13% yet GDP grows at 0.6%. However, there is no inflation? Where is the excess money that is being created going? What about asset inflation? What the hell are we creating that anybody wants? Go to Port Newark and view the empty containers. On this site we have discussed what to do with the empty containers. They are too damn expensive to ship back empty. What has PE created that is of any value to the core of the US, our workers? Declining real wages? Yet, goldilocks does exist[2009-2011?] until a CDO blows up ,interest rates go up or spreads widen. How about they all surface together? Benign conditions, tight spreads and low interest rates, load me up. I’ll buy and leverage the junk. Volatility and higher rates? Nobody knows, the crap has not been tested under those parameters.
Dow at record high. Not in my books. The Dow has crashed {in comparative terms}. I always thought the Dow was a laggard. Others on the street call it a crash, no, not on CNBC. Just from the river to the cemetary. Why bother, don’t worry, it’s at record high.
Back to Kuwait and the dollar. It would not surprise me to see their storage tanks attacked within the next 120 days. We will hear that it was insurgents/terrorists. Maybe? How about the US trying to send a message? I’m crazy, yes. However, would you put this past our think tank in DC? Because, we can kiss our *ss goodbye if energies are not priced in dollars. We may have to create turmoil, to send a message to Dubai, Qatar, Saudi, etc. The only damn thing that supports our worthless paper is our military. It’s that important to us. If not, how about unleaded priced in Euro’s? $6.00 a gallon?
In addition to this, why do we constantly hear that we can’t/should not be dependent on foreign oil? What about dependecy on foreign $’s? Is it OK for us to be the world’s largest debtor? Why do the Chinese take all the flak about their bands {yuan}? What about the damn yen? Manipulation of currencies has dire resuts. Many attribute 1929 to us manipulating the Pound after WW1.
Speaking of wars, after WW2 we forgave our allies their debt. How about the Chinese/Japanese and others forgive us? Better yet, declare bankruptcy, blow out SS, Medicare and tell the East sorry, we are starting over. Why not, the subprime/alt a needs a bailout, as does the municipalities, the states and DC. What’s the alternative, $60 trillion passed on to our kids/grandkids? Our off the books gov’t accounting makes Enron look like a walk in the park.
If you think my tirade has nothing to do with RE, you are dead wrong. Watch our int rates as the dollar tumbles, [after this dead cat bounce]and China/Opec/Russia/India/Brazil, etc. diversifies. In addition to this, why is China moving, what exists, out of our 10 year and into T-Bills? Bill Gross is on the other side of the trade. Great game of chess. But Bill hired the great Alan. A contrarian indicator?
Forgive me for getting off the RE track. However,how many damn ways can you skin this dead cat [RE]? The dollar and the current debt bubble are in the front row seats. RE is in the blue seats, wondering if Potvin still suc*ks?
#259 – Gary
If you need a reason for buying house at half the price in PA, IMO its FREEDOM.
Imagine paying of the whole house in few years, no more mortgage, no more paying the Interest for 30 years. Instead that money can go into investments, generating solid passive income.
Also if you think RE boom goes from cities to suburbs to exurbs, while bust goes the other way. We are 2 years into the bust, and it has definitely not reached to suburbus within commuting distance of NYC. It may be another 2 or 3 years before you get decent deals in so so NJ towns. You will be definitely able to negotiate better price in PA as folks are definitely desparate.
The only thing is what is the lifestyle tradeoff in increased commute time. If you work in central NJ, there should not be much difference. Going to NYC daily from there is kind of pushing it.
BC Bob: Great post. I am getting more enlightened every day. Keep it coming. :-)
All I can say is Ha! For those who believe everything on Flip this House is real, read on!
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070601/ap_en_tv/house_flipper_investigation
Flip This House’ star accused of fraud
Doug Gross, Associate Press Writer
June 1, 2007
Various excerpts:
ATLANTA – On an episode of A&E’s popular reality series “Flip This House,” Atlanta businessman Sam Leccima sits in front of a run-down house and calls buying and selling real estate his passion.
Now authorities and legal filings claim that Leccima’s true passion was a series of scams that included faking the home renovations shown on the cable TV show and claiming to have sold houses he never owned.
McGee and others say Leccima’s episodes of “Flip This House,” A&E’s most popular show, were elaborate hoaxes. His friends and family were presented as potential homebuyers and “sold” signs were slapped in front of unsold houses. They say the home repairs — the lynchpin of the show — were actually quick or temporary patch jobs designed to look good on camera.
Leccima, 36, presented himself as a successful real estate investor during the 2006 season of the cable show, which depicted him buying, refurbishing and reselling Atlanta-area homes for profits of $77,000 and more. But Leccima doesn’t have a real estate license — it was revoked by the Georgia Real Estate Commission in 2005, with the panel ruling he “does not bear a good reputation for honesty, trustworthiness, integrity, and competence.” Now he’s under investigation by the Georgia Secretary of State’s office for securities fraud.
WAGA-TV in Atlanta, which first aired the claims against Leccima, has shown footage from inside one of the homes, which had mismatched wooden floors and unpainted patched walls that were out of the view of TV cameras on “Flip This House.”
McGee said she attended what was billed as a wrap party at one home. But when the party was shown on “Flip This House,” it was presented as an open house at which someone expresses interest in buying the property.
GSE supporting deficit?
http://housingdoom.com/2007/05/12/got-rope/
Every day, foreign central banks need to buy about a billion dollars worth of government obligations to balance the US trade deficit. For about the last[two] month[s] they haven’t been buying treasuries, so the slack was taken up by “agencies,” the GSEs’ senior debt.
>>
He updates the charts on a weekly basis. Check comments section.
Donald is correct. Few of us will get a house 25% off 2005 prices, at least for the remainder of this year. That’s not to say it can’t be done, but I’d put the odds at about 1 in 50.
The larger picture is that the RE bubble has burst and may even crash. The fundamentals are deteriorating at an alarming rate and there are a number of other macro factors (see BC Bob’s rant above) that could accelerate the implosion.
I think there is enormous risk in owning real estate. Earlier this year I thought we’d see an orderly decline that might continue a few more quarters. Now I’m not so sure. I am sure it will get worse before it gets better and the duration and depth of the downturn is still an open question.
Most of Donald’s observations amount to voodoo incantations over a corpse that won’t revive. But the zombies are already here. Many of them on this blog or watching the RE shows on cable. Grim is the gris-gris man!
(And I’d love an untouched vintage 50’s Cape too.)
My favorite staging show is Secrets that Sell. They don’t waste time doing the renovations, they just critique the house and move on. Last week, they featured a $6 million estate in Malibu that had bedrooms the size of closets.
Best flipping show: Property Ladder. The host lays down the law and tells them the reality. Last time I watched, the guy thought he could do the entire house for $10,000. He ended up spending $50,000. However, he still made a $40,000 profit.
And what’s with that show “My First Place”? The buyers actually request that the sellers pay their closing costs. Goood thing they are in Denver because that would never fly in NJ. Pay their closing costs. HA! While they are at it, why not tell me to pay their moving costs?
No, thanks. I once rented an untouched 40s cape and it was a complete disaster. I would rather tear it down and replace it with a McMansion.
BC (319)-
Cue up the Depeche Mode.
And, from your (264), this rally is narrowing by the day. Declining volume, more volatility and a narrowing gang of stocks leading the charge will make this an interesting summer. It will also be interesting to see the inevitable bad behavior of some petro-nation (Nigeria, Iran, Venezuela, et al) tack on a quick $10 to oil. Gotta believe the PPT is on full- and permanent- red alert
You’ve also got to figure the LBO mania will keep things hopping, too. Who wants to be short anything when there’s a chance you can wake up on Monday morning and find out the POS you’re loaded up against just got bought or taken private?
However, I still cannot buy totally into your Armageddon scenario. A lot of market-based forces are beginning to work counter to the hot money and correlation out there. Some of the excess liquidity circling the planet is about to dry up…in the form of good, old-fashioned loss. You and I both know a lot of merged and LBO’d companies will either fail outright or collapse under the weight of assumed debt. Then all the bits and pieces of these dead companies will be out there for sale at rock-bottom prices. Once all the buzzards have shot their shot, they won’t be able to go back to the cheap money pool to load up with more, and maybe life will get back to something resembling normal.
The Donald, what a clown:) You remember what happened to your namesake in the last RE downturn? Chapter 11:) With all those Indian Casino’s popping up The Donald’s not going to have any fat cash cow’s to keep the wolves at bay this time around. HEHEHE. You’re Fired!!!
Renting (203)-
And how much of this swill do you think is owned by our very own State of NJ Pension Fund?
“I’d love an untouched vintage 50’s Cape too.”
I’m a fan of the 1900’s Sears Roebuck houses, some of you may be living in now. Some really beautiful stuff was done back then. You could get a complete set of plans, specifications and bill of materials for $1.00. I have the catalog, and here is a sample:
“For $945.00 we will furnish all the material to build this large eight room house, consisting of mill work, flooring, ceiling, siding, finishing lumber, building paper, eaves trough, mantel, hardware painting material, lumber, lath and shingles. We guarantee enough material at the above price to build this house according to our plans”
Message to the future home builder: keep it simple.
HE (328)-
But where else could a deadbeat huckster like Trump be considered the paragon of success…and write a #1 bestselling book with a guy (Kiyosaki) whose entire life story and investment history is a fiction?
If you’ve ever read Babbitt or Main Street, you can’t look at guys like these without feeling your stomach wrench a little.
prof (330)-
Empty shipping containers seem pretty simple.
BC Bob,
Iraq War II. Western Iraq oil reserves = the last untapped easily accessible cheaply obtainable reserves in the world. Saddam promised development to TOTAL and the Russians if/when they could get the sanctions lifted. Russia and France oppose invasion. Exxon, and BP etc’s reserves have lowered with no new major cheap discoveries in decades. US and Britain need to find those WMD. Coincidence??
http://www.time.com/time/printout/0,8816,1614000,00.html
HEHEHE (though its not so funny)
clot
Missed the whole container reference.
AIA has a competition called “can”struction, where the architect designs a structure from tin cans. Some pretty creative work is often done. Maybe they should try same with your containers.
Apparently the people at Kannekt are fans of The Donald Circus. Someone over there started a link tho this site.
Good, those Kannekt Klowns could use a reality check:)
“Good, those Kannekt Klowns could use a reality check:)”
I think this is the site that needs a reality check. Seriously. Buying homes for 25% of their 2005 values when the market has only gone down 1.4%???????
BC (319) – great summary!
I will refer to it whenever I get into bull mode. I think it is very apparent to you, me and all the other Peter Schiff believers. But what will it look like in the end? I can’t believe this will be a bear forever.
http://money.cnn.com/2007/05/31/real_estate/agency_home_price_up/index.htm?postversion=2007053115
Study says home prices not falling
In contrast to other reports, a Federal index shows house prices are higher than a year ago.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — Most studies say U.S. home prices are on the decline, but a new report from the federal government says just the opposite.
The Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO), which has tracked prices for more than 30 years, said Thursday its housing price index grew 4.3 percent in the first quarter compared with a year ago. It was the slowest rate of growth in 10 years, however.
YEAH! HOME PRICES NOT FALLING!!!!
Looks like you guys will be renting forever. I WON, YOU LOST!!!!!
Donald,
You’ll earn my respect once you sell your house for your price. Until then you are just noise. Many of us here do own our homes, btw & did not buy (and then want to sell) at 2005 prices.
On second thought, Donald, your lack of intelligence & superior attitude will likely keep you from earning my respect regardless.
*eye roll*
Donald (340)-
Your house sold? Congratulations.
And, to your (337): I own a RE company. If you want to believe that cooked-up 1.4% decline number is real…keep drinking the Kool-Aid.
I’m in an area (Hunterdon/Somerset) where most of your county is moving to (if not to NC), and let me assure you that SFH here is at least 10-12% off ’05 highs, and many condoshacks are closing in on 15-17% off. No end is in sight; I think we’re entering a new down phase that will slash another 10-12% before Spring ’08. My agents and I are out there every day, doing many of the deals that can actually get done around here, and I defy you to put anything in front of me that backs up your pipedream.
And, if you want to press the claim that the Bergen market is healthier than here, forget it. Your area went into decline- relative to Hunterdon/Somerset- in 2004.
The only calculation you should be doing right now is figuring how big a check you’ll need to bring to your closing…IF you can even manage to sell your house. From what I’ve read here so far, I think your marketing effort is DOA.
“The almighty dollar? Finished/toast. Elvis Patterson.”
Bost – nice! :)
does anyone here live near the buckeye pipeline?
Parcells “loved” Elvis Patterson. :o
United Water NJ in Bergen County – Water Alert
Paraphasing:
“Do not drink or wash clothes or dishes due to cloudy water. United Water is working on the issue but refrain from using water for the above purposes until the water runs clear.”
I know Franklin Lakes has been having problems. Looks like it’s spread?
From The Record:
Time to flush mains in Franklin Lakes
United Water NJ Issue:
Washington Township, Hillsdale and Westwood are affected.
For more information contact the customer service department at 800 422 5987
OT:
I missed this memo – people are referring to the YES Network as “al-Yankzeera”.
Baaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!
Grubbers and starving friskie eating tour guides meet.
http://bp1.blogger.com/_wFWqWIH-WFU/RmFlYt7UEZI/AAAAAAAABHs/CavePDC-b2c/s1600-h/sheep-flock.jpg
BC #319 – Oil & Dollars
I’d say it’s a good bet that a message will be sent this summer to remind the oil producers that they need to keep us happy. A desperate partner is a dangerous one to keep.
profuscious #351 – the only caveat to this theory is that you are assuming that the powers that be are on the peoples side and not with the oil cartel.
I am looking for ideas on a lowball.
As much as I would like to stay put, I have to move and planning on a 15% low ball (if you can call it that). I am thinking of making this low ball offer on a Tuesday and give 3 days for the offer to expire. The last thing I want is for the seller to shop around with my offer.
Also, consider this- suppose I approach a sellers agent and he represents me as a buyer as well. I tell him.. if you get me this house for $X and nothing more he will be given a bonus of say $10K. I know it sounds awful… but if the seller can give a bonus secretly – can a buyer do the same?
Anything in the books that prevent this?
Can someone with MLS confirm the address of the following:
MLS: 2411994
I think it is 40 fransisco in little falls. Zillow has a sold in 6/06 for 475000 but it is currently listed as 439900.
Thanks in advance
Rent (353)-
There’s what’s legal…and what you can get away with. The proposition that you’d be making to the listing agent would also put him in violation of his fiduciary responsibilities to his seller. That could- if discovered- cost that agent his entire commission on the deal and get you sued, to boot.
Off-closing statement side deals are also a violation of RESPA, which gets you to the Federal level of skulduggery. It would require a pretty bad and pretty desperate agent to risk so much just to score a one-time bonus of a few grand. It’s just not worth it.
If you’re buying today, you gotta pay today’s price (unless this owner is headed toward foreclosure). If the home is not priced at today’s price, you can certainly beat that seller down, but the something-for-nothing window at the RE store remains closed.
Actually I live in a 1939 virtually untouched rental Cape and have for years. Sure, it has its limitations, but it is a wonderfully simple design that has proven flexible over the years as our needs changed. Every room besides the master bdrm has gone thru at least two incarnations, from dining rm to child’s room to office; upstairs dormer guest room to bigger kid’s room etc.
My reply to McMansion fans: McMs are the teardowns of the future. A smart renovation of an existing Cape or ranch with good bones is the way to go for me.
Clot,
I was at a party last night, met some of the Goldilocks touters. It’s amazing they talk out of one side of their *ss on TV. Privately, they speak another language. I asked one [no names], why don’t you present that view on TV. Answer. “I’d get fired” It’s amazing the public buys into this crap. We talk about the bs that the NAR spews. Wall street, imo, is worse than the NAR. Funny, nobody disagreed with me, regarding that statement, last night. My wife was tired of listening to me blasting these phonies on the way home. My venem then moved to the board.
“As much as I would like to stay put, I have to move and planning on a 15% low ball (if you can call it that).”
STAY PUT! Your offer will expire because no seller in their right mind is going to take it. Any realtor will be embarassed to present the offer to the seller.
Let us know what happens after the deal falls through…
“If you’re buying today, you gotta pay today’s price”
Interesting Clotpoll. In your post to me, you said that prices are down 12-15%, but you just stated down the thread that you have to pay today’s prices if you wantot buy a house today. And we all know that today’s prices are basically 2005 prices.
You also cannot give a seller’s agent a secret bonus because he works for the seller, not you. If you had your own agent, then it might be a different story.
sa,
That address is correct, 40 Francisco.
It was purchased on 2/3/2006 for $475,000
MLS# 2411994
List Price: $429,000
DOM: 4
Commission: 5%
Ouch..
jb
STAY PUT! Your offer will expire because no seller in their right mind is going to take it. Any realtor will be embarassed to present the offer to the seller.
I can point you to hundreds of sellers that have taken lowballs. Some in excess of the 15% figure you state. So tell me, who is in their right mind, the seller who sells at the market price, or the seller who doesn’t? Heck, can you even call a seller who refuses to sell at market a seller? Perhaps fisherman (wisherman?) is a more appropriate description…
jb
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=site%3Anjrereport.com+lowball
All of the powers that be (and there are many) in this case depend on each other for their own survival.
Destabilizing the Saudis and the emirates would lead to utter chaos, we won’t let that happen. The majority oil consuming nations, do not want to see the status quo upset, so we/they will continue to prop these regimes up. Who knows we may end up side by side with Red China trying to maintain order before it’s all over.
Even if you do get a lowball accepted, it does not mean you got the hosue for a good deal. I know of a house that was bought for $870,000 2 years ago and is currently listed for $1,159,000. Even if you take $200,000 off the price, you are still overpaying while the sellers are living the high life thanks you you.
And the number of lowballs that are accepted is only a very small fraction of the homes listed. The average seller will not take a lowball. You can submit one, but be prepared to pay cloe to asking price when it gets rejected.
And we all know what I do to lowball offers…. Why don’t you give me a lowball? I DARE YOU! :-)
Need to find link, but this report interesting:
‘Piggybacking’ Roils Credit Industry
By J.W. ELPHINSTONE (AP Business Writer)
From Associated Press
June 03, 2007 1:13 PM EDT
Only a low credit score stood between Alipio Estruch and a mortgage to buy a $449,000 Spanish-style house in Weston, Fla., a few miles west of Fort Lauderdale.
..Estruch paid $1,800 in December for three credit card spots, and by January, his FICO score jumped from 550 to 715. In mid-March, he closed on his four-bedroom beige stucco house after obtaining a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage from a unit of American Home Mortgage Investment Corp. It carried a 7.5 percent interest rate and required no down payment.”
Just wanted to add one more thing:
If the seller accepts a lowball that is amrket value, then that is not dumb. However, there are lunatics out there looking out hosues and will submit lowballs for a fraction of the home’s market value. Those are the people that I curse out.
lis,
I have a feeling the newest set of FICO modifications are going to significantly reduce the ability to use these kinds of tricks to pump up scores. The “authorized user” trick has been getting a significant amount of press coverage lately (along with the subprime news). The timing of the most recent Fair Isaac scoring change announcement seems a bit too coincidental.
jb
Thanks, JB.
Its nice to see some positive info. Coming from Northern VA and feeling what the downturn really feels like (selling a townhouse) NNJ can be depressing. All my coworks and family explain its different here.
Did you sell your townhouse Shopping Around ot is it still listed?
lis,
Found the link:
‘Piggybacking’ Roils Credit Industry
The result was a happy ending for Estruch, but the growing practice is sending shivers through the mortgage industry. Federal regulators are also reviewing the practice. And after being contacted by The Associated Press for this story, Fair Isaac Corp., the developer of the widely used FICO score, said it will change its credit scoring system beginning later this year in a way it contends will end this little-known but potentially high-impact mortgage loan loophole.
Expected as much…
Can someone with GSMLS access please give an update on 2389456. Thanks in advance.
prices,
Still under contract, anticipated closing date was 05/24/2007.
jb
jb,
You had given the anticipated closing date 2 weeks back. Just wanted to find out whether it closed and what it sold for. Thanks.
Donald Says:
June 3rd, 2007 at 2:57 pm
“If you’re buying today, you gotta pay today’s price” Interesting Clotpoll. In your post to me, you said that prices are down 12-15%, but you just stated down the thread that you have to pay today’s prices if you wantot buy a house today. And we all know that today’s prices are basically 2005 prices.
The Donald: Interesting…you have the ability to demostrate rather convincingly in a textual format a lack of reading comprehension that is tied directly to a deficit in cognitive skills. Do you have function beyond the autonomic nerve system?
I sold it . I looked at all comps in the subdivsion and just sliced the price to just below them. sold in 4 days with 2 offers for slightly less than asking in.
That is pretty good. Unfortuantely for a house, it is harder to look at comps because no 2 homes are different. There is a home for the same price that is listed that is nicer thn mine, but it is about half the size. There is also another home, but it is in the ghetto section of town. Then there is one just a little bit more than mine, but it is MUCH smaller than mine and, from the pictures in the MLS, appears to require a complete renovation.
Reality check, please. I am afraid I am channeling my inner Donald.
Here’s the story: Reduced my asking price again this week by 10 %. This is in addition to the original 10% drop shortly after we listed at what we thought was a good price, about 5% below fall 2006 comps. (So asking is nowabout 25% below fall 2006 comps.) This means that I went into this weekend with an asking below what I paid in 2003 without even adding in approx. $100 K in work: new doors, new windows, central vac, automatic garage doors, security system, got the fireplaces working, new top-of-the-line kitchen appliances, etc., etc. (In truth, though, the house still needed all the pizazz–no granite countertops or fancy decorating happened before my husband split.) Thought I had a good attitude, figuring that I needed to compete in a dead market.
Got an offer today 10% below asking. Countered with asking price. Prospective buyers refuse to come up, saying that it’s not a counter if I don’t come in below my asking. I told my realtor that the ink is barely dry on the price reduction form and I’m not selling for that little today. Reaaltor says I am crazy and should take whatever offer I get.
It didn’t help that while this drama was playing out, I was doing open houses, each one more dirty, functionally obsolete and overpriced than the last.
So what do you think? Have I shot myself in the foot?
Reread my post. I didn’t mean to imply that I was holdin out for my current asking price, just that I wanted the offer to rise somewhere closer to asking before I was going to start coming down.
#379,
My goodness! Are you going to have any money when you get done with this transaction? You are charging less than you paid AND this does not include the $100k in renovations?
Here is what I would do:
Raise the price! Determine what your break even point is and set it around there, give or take 5%. Then you tell those buyers to hit the road! Don’t even waste your time with them.
Is there an urgent matter that requires you to sell the house? If not, then stay put while you list at a break even point. I paid $840,000 for my house in 2005. If I got an offer for a penny below this, I will show the buyer the door.
If you cannot afford the house, then rent it. Tell your husband that you will not lose any money because he decided to woalk out. Tell him that either
a) the house will be kept on the market at a break even price
b) The house will be rented out
c) The house will be taken off the market and one of you will live in it
At all costs, DO NOT SELL for one penny less than the break even point!!
If you do not mind, starting over, can you share the lisitng with us? What county are you in and what is the NJMLS #?
Donald,
You paid 840K in 2005? Holy Sh*t, no wonder why you’re so bitter!! Dude, you are under water!
“I paid $840,000 for my house in 2005. If I got an offer for a penny below this, I will show the buyer the door.”
Flashback; End of 2000, I will not sell JNPR for less than $120, hell that’s approx 50% off its high. How much lower can it go? BARF.
Well, since I’m not considering raising the price, at least I’m not channeling Donald. Those of you who are salesmen and brokers, how do you advise your clients to respond to lowballs?
“I didn’t mean to imply that I was holding out for my current asking price, just that I wanted the offer to rise somewhere closer to asking before I was going to start coming down.”
Probably should have countered a less than asking then, no? $10K?
Put yourself on the other side of the deal — the buyer sees inflexibility and hassles.
Donald #382, liquidation of assets waits for no one — death, divorce, retirement, the nursing home. This is your competition, and they will sell.
Jun 28, 2006 – $939,000 (MLS 2294110)
Aug 19, 2006 – $895,000
Sep 07, 2006 – $865,000
Oct 18, 2006 – $839,000
Nov 06, 2006 – $795,000
Nov 28, 2006 – $739,000
Dec 17, 2006 – Attorney Review
Dec 20, 2006 – Under Contract
Mar 29, 2007 – Back on Market
Mar 30, 2007 – $739,000 (MLS # 2391429)
Apr 02, 2007 – Attorney Review
Apr 13, 2007 – Under Contract
Jun 01, 2007 – Closed @ $730,000
this Donald fellow can’t be for real.
SAS
I don’t care about price drops. I also dropped my price a lot. I am saying tht the seller should not sell for a loss. Her situation does not sound desperate enough to warrant this.
And do not deal with that buyer. I can almost guarantee that he will try to lower the price even more after the home inspection.
In order to be more fleible with buyers, you need to RAISE the price so that you have room to negotiate. Raise the price $50,000 so that, if you take $30,000 off the asking price, the buyer thinks he is getting a good deal.
“Those of you who are salesmen and brokers, how do you advise your clients to respond to lowballs?”
I will tell you how my agent responds to low balls. He curses the buyer out. In fact, I did not even know there was a lowball because my agent said not to bothor putting the offer in writing since it was so pathetic. I only found out after I called the buyer’s agent because I thought they wanted to see the house a second time.
Wow Donald, what a great negotiators you and your agent are! After your agent cursed him out I’ll bet that buyer offered you 850K! Whereupon they got into a bidding war with other “lowballers” and you went into contract at 950K!
Ha Ha Pooch. Sorry you were not able to steal, um, I mean buy my house from me. Once November comes, I am taking the house off the market indefinitely.
Good point, Unrealtor. Wish my listing agent had suggested it . Or made any suggestion at all. My query, “I think that’s low, how do you suggest I counter?” was met with: “Talk to your husband and let me know how you want me to respond.”
The party making the offer has looked at the house at least four times (Not counting when they sit on the curb and stare at it). They’ve been hanging around since the original offering price, repeatedly offering lame reasons for not buying (the kitchen is too big … the house smells like the dog . . . there’s road noise) I felt the low offer, coming right after a big reduction, was intended to take advantage. And since the offer had no mortgage contingency, it didn’t elicit any sympathy that it was the best they could do. Timing the offer as they did made me feel clearly that they hoped to profit from my misfortune. Although I need to sell, I can carry the house for several years on the amount of money between my asking and their offer. Anyway, they’ve made no move to sweeten their offer but just complained that once they’ve made an offer, I have to come down further. So that’s that.
Hi guys,
I frequent this site from time to time but mostly read..and thanks to this forum, I did NOT buy a house last year when I moved to NJ.
I have a question now since my family is interested in buying. I am not sure if anyone is aware of a community off of 130 in North Brunswick called Renaisance. They are thinking of buying there on Pin Oak Dr. Just wondering how much you think this home is worth:
http://newjersey.craigslist.org/rfs/341115802.html
“Although I need to sell, I can carry the house for several years on the amount of money between my asking and their offer.”
Then that is what you need to do. Raise the asking price to some place where you will not lose money or take the house off the market. The buyers are trying to profit from your divorce. DO NOT LET THEM. I really do not understand why you are selling your house for a $100,000 + loss. You are making a grave mistake.
Hey there, I am a lurker. How do I look up past sales histories for houses in westchester county? Thanks.
JB #305 I’m flattered…you want to buy my house! But it’s not for sale. And I only have two harvest gold appliances left. ;)
The Donald: ever heard of the “sunk cost fallacy”?
Michelle,
You can go on http://www.domania.com, type in the address, and see the sales history.
I think you can also do that on zillow.com or at least get the estimated value of the house.
“The Donald: ever heard of the “sunk cost fallacy”?”
Easy for you to say, you are not the one losing $100k. Thank goodness I did not put that much into my house, or anywhere near that much. You think you know everything about real estate. YOU DO NOT. When I sold my apartment in Manhattan, I got back almost $30,000 for a $6,000 shoddy renovation that I did. So who is smart now?
ChiFi (376)-
Thanks for the retort to L’Idiot Donald while I was out living my life this afternoon.
I don’t think his problem is autonomic nerve system-based…I think he’s just had his head in a bag of glue for about 10 years.
Hey Donald…please point me to the universe where prices are still at ’05 levels.
I do not care what prices are because, if I do not sell for my price, I will take the house off the market indefinitely. I am not going to sell for less than what I paid. PERIOD.
Besides, I have my eye on several houses that I am interested in buying and I do not see them dropping their prices. If I sell for less than I paid, I won’t be able to afford those houses and I will be up a creek without a paddle. So I will stay put if that is the case.
Starting Over (386)-
Here’s the process I’d suggest:
1. Determine whether you trust your agent. If so, ask him what your current market value is…no waffling. If you don’t trust your agent, fire him and get one you do trust. Ask that new agent the same question. Having your agent prepare a new CMA to back up his opinion is also a good idea.
2. If the “lowball” is close to the number your agent suggests is market value, it’s not a lowball. It’s a good offer. Negotiate it up as much as you can, and take the deal. Your house is losing value daily; things are not going to get better soon.
3. Continue to read posts here. Do the exact opposite of anything Donald suggests.
Donald #403,
I bet a lot of people in your position said the same thing.
“If the “lowball” is close to the number your agent suggests is market value, it’s not a lowball. It’s a good offer. Negotiate it up as much as you can, and take the deal. Your house is losing value daily; things are not going to get better soon.”
Any offer that is less than 2003 prices and DOES NOT include the $100,000 that the seller spent on upgrades is a lowball. Feel free to rip me to shreds, but I am right on this point.
L’Idiot (390)-
Raise your asking price 50K…and no buyers will even walk thru your door to take a look. You can’t negotiate offers that never get made.
“3. Continue to read posts here.”
I advise against this. This site is full of gloom and doom renters that will stop at nothing to buy your house for half its value. They exaggerate all the numbers. Bloomberg cites 1.4% and they are talking about 25% in depreciation.
If you want better advice, go to Kannekt (hobokenx.com)
“Raise your asking price 50K…and no buyers will even walk thru your door to take a look. You can’t negotiate offers that never get made.”
I have lots of buyers coming through and I am not selling for a loss. Sorry, but you are wrong again…..
There is nothing so pathetic as a an idiot determined to remain so.
Did Zillow take off the comps histories?
zillow never had sales histories. I checked my house and nothing is listed. Go to domania
zillow only has the tax assessor’s value.
don’t buy made in China.. especially your toothpaste…
“FDA has identified the following brands of toothpaste from China that contain DEG and are included in the import alert: Cooldent Fluoride; Cooldent Spearmint; Cooldent ICE; Dr. Cool, Everfresh Toothpaste; Superdent Toothpaste; Clean Rite Toothpaste; Oralmax Extreme; Oral Bright Fresh Spearmint Flavor; Bright Max Peppermint Flavor; ShiR Fresh Mint Fluoride Paste; DentaPro; DentaKleen; and DentaKleen Junior. Manufacturers of these products are: Goldcredit International Enterprises Limited; Goldcredit International Trading Company Limited; and Suzhou City Jinmao Daily Chemicals Company Limited. The products typically are sold at low-cost, “bargain” retail outlets”
http://www.fda.gov/bbs/topics/NEWS/2007/NEW01646.html
SAS
Donny, each person is entitled to his or her own opinion, for sure. However, you are giving financial advice about a topic that is way too close to your heart.
Careful, here, or you might end up looking stoopid [or at least you will by the Fall, when you say you will take your house off the market.]
We love and respect you already, so you want to stick around, O.K.?
I actually want to go sit in some dive bar with you and get you all liquored up just so I can listen.
Zillow, right bar menu. List all comps is gone for me.
Donald (391)-
“I will tell you how my agent responds to low balls. He curses the buyer out.”
Wow, Donny; looks like you’ve got a real top-producer fronting for you there. He burns time and $$$ constantly re-listing your home and makes a pig of himself in front of others. Sharp!
Tell me, do you two share needles?
My agent knows that I will not accept a lowball so he curses the buyers out because he has nothing to lose. He is a good agent. He owns 2 real estate offices in Bergen County and has been in the business for 15 years. So I think he knows what he is doing.
Pat – You are hilarious.
Donald (409)-
Please include the second part of that item:
“Do the exact opposite of anything Donald suggests.”
Please don’t selectively edit what I say, then present it out of context. That’s kinda like re-listing a dead property over and over again.
BTW, I’m a RE broker who represents sellers every day. I’m not talking about anyone “stealing” a home or 25% depreciation or anything of the sort. The market where I am is about 12-15% off its highs, and to expect more than that in a sale is no more than wishful thinking.
Just to elaborate, the lot size is 47*94..constructed in 1999…taxes are 8000ish..covered area is 2500 sq ft..2 car garage..4 br. , finished basement with bathroom..(i dont think there’s much of a back yard though)…
i forgot the actual number of the house..might be like 67 or 71 pinoak but its not on MLS. the owner is trying to do FSBO right now..
asking 559 …
Just wondering what the experts here think would be a fair lowball..
Another lowball buyer? Great! This explains why the number of existing homes sold keeps going down… because sellers do not want your pathetic lowballs. You guys should come to the Gold Coast and make a lowball on a new condo. Boy, will you be in for the shock of your life. Toll and K HOV do not negotiate.
Donald (418)-
Well, broker/owners in my line of work have PLENTY to lose…mainly, our reputations (which are more valuable than any year’s worth of gross commissions). As a broker/owner myself, I certainly try to guard mine…and it’s far too valuable to waste by cursing out people who simply do something I don’t like.
Perhaps your broker doesn’t care about his reputation, or just lost it long ago. There’s no upside in treating people like crap…even if they might deserve it. Did you or your broker ever consider that someone tossing you a lowball might simply be testing the waters…and prepared to make you a realistic offer once you simply reject the lowball?
Donald (422)-
“Toll and K HOV do not negotiate.”
Nope…they just run 35-50% cancellation rates.
Oops…those cancellations were first counted as sales. So what if they never actually close?
“BTW, I’m a RE broker who represents sellers every day.”
My point is that there are lots of people out there who are trying to steal homes for 25% less than their values. I know. I have encountered 2 of them. I have not gotten any offers that are “fair.” The offers I got were not even worth my time listening to.
And the Bergen market is better than where you are. We have lots of new condo developments that are practically sold out. Factors them in with the homes, and the numbers are not that bad. Just for fun, I have been keeping trak of the prices developers are asking,and, in some cases, they RAISE them. And there is no negotiation. It is take it or leave it.
“and prepared to make you a realistic offer once you simply reject the lowball?”
After I got the lowball, the buyer raised the offer by $50,000, which was till pathetic. I do not think he had any intention of coming up to where I would be prepared to sell. Even if he came up another $50k, it would not be enough.
“So what if they never actually close?”
It is not a total loss, Toll gets to keep your 15% deposit. Add up those deposits, and it is the equivalent of selling a house or two.
And Mr. Toll himself does not really care about those cancellations. Last year, Bob Toll made $90 million in compensation. Not bad; only a little bit more than what I made (just joking :)
I am sure the share holders are running scared, but life is not fair.
Clotpoll: You hit the nail on the head when you ask whether I trust my agent. I do not. I wanted to use an agent who was active locally, which resulted in my hiring someone who came well recommended but has not followed through on the many representations that were made as to how marketing my home would proceed. In setting the original price and authorizing the two substantial reductions, I have followed my agent’s advice as to timing and amount. I beleived that we had an understanding that the house could actually be priced slightly less than market, if necessary, in order to expedite the sale. I am most disappointed that the agent has clearly avoided any marketing that costs money, such as brochures and print ads even to publicize open houses. The agent appears to assume that the house will sell and he will eventually collect the commission with no extraordinary effort on his part required.
I was interested that you recommended that I fire the agent and retain a new one. I was under the impression that I must see this agent out through the end of the listing agreement. Am I wrong?
“It is not a total loss, Toll gets to keep your 15% deposit. Add up those deposits, and it is the equivalent of selling a house or two.”
………and are walking away from hundreds of millions of land options.
I will tell you how my agent responds to low balls. He curses the buyer out. In fact, I did not even know there was a lowball because my agent said not to bothor putting the offer in writing since it was so pathetic. I only found out after I called the buyer’s agent because I thought they wanted to see the house a second time.
Come on clot,
You answered that comment? He’s obviously not for real, he’s stating that his agent did the ultimate no no- got, then turned down an offer without letting him know. He only found out by accident. Didn’t happen.
KL
I’ll say one thing for Donald, his endurance is admirable. How many people can keep returning to a place where they are thought a fool, continue to give new evidence that they are indeed a fool, and continue to insist that they are not a fool?
Actually, I am in the camp that does not believe that Donald exists. At least not as he presents himself.
It is extremely unlikely that a person with thoughts as muddled as “Donald” could acquire the necessary capital to purchase a home for $840K, and be in a position where he wants to sell, but does not need to sell. His story has already fallen apart.
I don’t doubt for one moment that there are people as stupid as Donald roaming around, but a person as ignorant of basic market mechanisms and financial matters as he obviously is just can’t get themselves in the position he places himself.
Also, a person with that level of ignorance would never spend as much time on this site as he has.
Donald is a troll and a particularly sad one at that.
The polite initial responses, and the derision derision he now receives are pretty much the same to him — someone is paying to him, and since that’s not something that happens anywhere else, he’ll keep coming back.
Lindsey
Further to your post 432 and my 431 – I do not believe he is for real, there were only 13 homes sold for $840,000 in all of bergen county in 2005, Of which 2 are currently for sale, he has stated neither are his and he feels in danger to give any more info out. Although he does’nt have a problem asking startingover for her mls #. FAKER, TROLL, POSER, JOKER.
KL
Donald,
Please send me an email at jamesbednar at gmail dot com.
Thanks,
James
Donald:
“And we all know what I do to lowball offers…. Why don’t you give me a lowball? I DARE YOU! :-)”
What’s your agent’s phone #?
who is behind the mask of Donald?
How about it JB??
SAS
I really and thinking Donald is here just to ruffle feathers.
I would love to see JB’s traffic report.
SAS
And the Bergen market is better than where you are. We have lots of new condo developments that are practically sold out. Factors them in with the homes, and the numbers are not that bad. Just for fun, I have been keeping trak of the prices developers are asking, and, in some cases, they RAISE them. And there is no negotiation. It is take it or leave it.
Donny Boy,
…and what good does that do for you? Your home is overpriced and not selling. No one is interested.
You need to realize that the NJ “gold coast” and “the projects” are only separated by a matter of a few blocks. While I’m in no way suggesting that you live in the projects, I’ll bet dollars to doughnuts that our home doesn’t qualify as “gold coast” either. Just because you live in a town with some “gold coast” condos, that doesn’t mean your home is magically conferred with “gold coast” status.
You simply have an overpriced Bergen County home.
rhymingrealtor,
I believe that house in Cliffside Park is his house, he just won’t admit it publicly. Given the circumstances, I think I’d deny it too.
I also do believe he has been mostly honest; his statements have been consistent. I believe he bought a NYC apartment on the cheap years back, got lucky in the boom years and made a mint when he sold the apartment in 2005. Took all that profit and sunk it into a ridiculously overpriced house in Cliffside Park with no backyard and overlooking the slums.
Now he’s here because he’s bitter he can’t find a sucker to unload his house on.
… On another topic, China (Shanghai)down 5.5% tonight.
Shopping from NOVA, mind me asking when you sold your townhouse?
Looking right now at Zillow — on the right side of the screen, there’s a section titled “Sale History & Tax Info.”
Type in the 4-digit code where it says “Please type the numbers you see in the picture.”
Prior sales data from a random house:
Sale History
04/03/1987: $310,000
I do not believe he is for real, there were only 13 homes sold for $840,000 in all of bergen county in 2005, Of which 2 are currently for sale
You may be right.
He claimed to live in the same town as Dr. Mehmet Oz.
Dr. Oz is listed as having property in Edgewater and Cliffside Park.
Highest listed home in Cliffside Park – $624…and it’s a high-rise, not SFH
In Edgewater, 1 SFF listed at $649 (no garage as Don claims to have). Everything higher in price is a condo or townhouse.
Un, that’s not it. I’m shallow-breathing over here. There used to be a link right above that, where you could pull all comps.
Then they were sortable by any field, like date, and you got two pages of the things.
Now it’s gone.
“As a broker/owner myself, I certainly try to guard mine…and it’s far too valuable to waste by cursing out people who simply do something I don’t like.”
That certainly hasn’t been evident here Reeves. Juvenile name-calling and insults flow regularly from your posts.
Even in this thread, referring to Donald as “L’Idiot Donald.”
Pat #444, when you first search for an address, and that little popup appears over the house on the map, at the bottom there’s a link titled “Comparables.”
Here’s the output from the link:
http://www.zillow.com/search/Comparables.htm?zpid=40063582
Perhaps they moved it?
Oh, yeah.
:|
was that always there?
starting over (429)-
You may be able to get rid of that agent…if you make a big enough stink to his broker.
Sounds like your current guy is sorta on cruise control. I wouldn’t worry about the print media stuff…print media of any sort is useless these days. Nobody reads it. However, if your agent can’t give you some graphic evidence of the flow of internet traffic on your home, I’d be very worried. 80% of the buyers out there are doing all their prelim. work on the web.
Good luck…if you want more specific advice, send me your e-mail thru Grim.
Un (445)-
L’Idiot? I’d hardly call that cursing…and it may be too quaint a monicker for the trolling Donald. Better I should have hung that title on you.
I know you’d love for me to lay down and play dead while you impugn my reputation…based upon no more information than the fact that I work in RE. Unfortunately, I will not. You wanna come at me, I’ll come back 10x harder. I’m no angel, but I don’t make a living sticking it to people, and you don’t get a free pass to imply that I do.
The only people I’ve ever cracked wise on here have pretty much asked for it through demonstrations of abject stupidity. In fact, if you take a look back, I haven’t come at you lately, because some of your recent posts actually make some sense. I fear you’re close to hitting your Peter Principle, though.
Continue to enjoy the purty pictures and 20-year old comps at Zillow.
Not NJ news, but near by high end market news.
Island real estate bucks Mass. downturn
But on Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard, the real estate party that came to a crashing halt across the state in 2005 never really stopped, it only slowed down a bit.
Single-family home prices on both resort islands, fueled by multimillion-dollar sales of waterfront estates, are up significantly over the same time last year.
http://business.bostonherald.com/realestateNews/view.bg?articleid=1003939
From the AP, June 4:
Most other Asian markets shrugged off Monday’s plunge in the Chinese mainland. Shares in Australia, South Korea and the Philippines rose strongly to record highs. Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 index edged up 0.08 percent, while Hong Kong’s benchmark idex was up 0.6 percent.
Beijing keeps its markets largely isolated from global financial flows. Most Chinese shares are off-limits to foreign investors and financial controls prevent most Chinese from investing abroad. Also, analysts have been warning of a possible Chinese correction for weeks, reducing the element of surprise for investors abroad.
Philippine shares appeared to be benefiting from the sell-off in China as some foreign investors shift funds to elsewhere in the region, said Lawrence de Leon, an analyst at Accord Capital Equities Inc.
“A lot of money is going out of the China equities and are moving into other Asian markets, among them the Philippines,” he said.
From the Herald News:
Clifton residents forced to sell home, pay emotional toll
…
The state has condemned a dozen homes and two commercial lots along Kingsland Avenue east of the historic tunnel, as part of a $200 million Department of Transportation project. In a project envisioned eight years ago, by 2012 the state plans to add 15 acceleration and deceleration lanes to Routes 3 and 21, improve ramps to the two highways and replace the nearby Park Avenue Bridge over the Passaic River.
More at the link above, Rich
#397
Michelle,
Try this:
http://ccpv.westchesterclerk.com/
It might have some information you’re looking for. I have found doing a google search for “tax records” in the county/state will give you a link to purchase price along with tax information.
From The Oklahoman via NorthJersey.com:
Think gas is high? So are groceries
As if soaring gasoline prices aren’t enough, consumers also pay more at the grocery store.
Economists say food prices in 2007 have increased more rapidly than they have in years. Most noticeably, the price of eggs, milk, bread, cereals, pork, beef, chicken and fresh fruits and vegetables reflect the increases.
…
The story’s the same in North Jersey, where consumers have been hit with big increases in a number of staples, including eggs, which are up 7.7 percent this year; chicken (14.3 percent); ground beef (13.5 percent) and milk (2.8 percent), according to The Record’s Marketbasket Survey. Even though gasoline prices seem to have peaked, they are still up 40 percent in North Jersey since January.
Rich [454],
It’s funny. We hear all the hoopla about gas. Think about it, we have unprecedented worldwide growth, you start with crude, ship it, refine it and ship again. After this we we pay approx $3 a gallon for this. On the flip side, you goose a cow and we pay $4 a gallon for that. ?? Unfortunately, Bessie needs to eat.
Also, the same people that are bitching about $3 gas, are filling up a gas guzzler and going to Starbucks and paying $2.50 (?) for a 16 oz cup of coffee. What are they paying Starbuck’s for a gallon of coffee?
It’s all quite comical.
June 2007- I Tulip
“Here we go again, with our first major update to our housing bubble analysis since March 2006, Fueling the FIRE Economy – Part III: Impact of Disappearing Fictitious Value ($ subscription). Using the Fed’s Flow of Funds data, our analysis indicates $12 trillion in fictitious value has accumulated in the US housing market since 1997 when the pre-bubble stage of the housing bubble started; the hyper-growth bubble stage lasted from 2001 until mid 2005.”
“All asset bubbles are mean reverting, including the housing bubble. All $12 trillion will disappear, eventually. The only issue is how quickly, and how much in nominal versus real price declines.”
http://itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1404
BC (455)-
You’re looking like Nostradamus today. The last topic on Squawk Box was what it will take to dry up the LBO frenzy.
One of the commentators opined it would be a bank denying financing to a splashy LBO proposal, a la the attempt to take American Airlines private in 1989.
Alas, that same commentator said he didn’t see a deal on the horizon that a bank would refuse to throw money at.
This will get very interesting. We have discussed this several times. Who owns the damn paper? Is the derivative market much different?
“You’re in luck. Your mortgage lender has flipped, sliced and diced your loan–and now no one knows who holds it.”
“Talk about shooting yourself in the foot. These days just about every mortgage is flipped by a lender to another one or sliced up into pools of securitized packages that are sold on Wall Street. The financial engineering helped oil the housing boom by making credit more available. But stalled housing prices and rising defaults have revealed a mess: In the rush to flip paper, lots of the new lenders or pools don’t have the proper paperwork to show they even hold the mortgage.”
“There is a case in Kansas with no documents to show a bank owns the loan it says it does. In another, ownership of a loan was recorded on a single date in the name of two different lenders. In March last year Deutsche Bank filed to foreclose on a seven-bedroom home in Worcester, Mass. owned by Sima Shwartz. But it came out that Deutsche was assigned the loan in May or June–that is, after the foreclosure filing. A U.S. bankruptcy court judge in April slammed Deutsche for its “jumble of documents” and ruled the bank could not evict Shwartz.”
Forgot the link {458},
http://biz.yahoo.com/fo/070601/549844fec1f41a3861ca5c3c697b9106.html?.v=1&.pf=loans
BC (458)-
Hooah! Awful hard to foreclose when you don’t know you’re the mortgagee. Maybe that will “bail out” some people on the edge.
Clot,
I told enough of the phonies what I thought on Sat night. Maybe one of them thought it made a wee bit of sense. Who made that comment?
I do think we have a lot of time before this occurs. Actually I am bullish. Let me rephrase, bullish certain sectors. There are many more deals forthcoming. Can you imagine what I would sound like if I was bearish?
Clot, I sent you an email. Thanks!
Question for all the realtors/experts out there:
The house we are looking at has a room that the owners use as a bedroom and are listing as a bedroom, but it doesn’t have a closet. A co-worker has told me that in NJ a room must have a closet to be considered a bedroom. Is this true? And what constitutes a closet? There is storage built into the wall but it is not a full-size closet.
Thanks,
AK
#463 – I have seen several houses where there was no closet and the Realtor showing me said it could NOT be considered a bed-room for that reason. I heard this from more than one realtor on more than one house.
I have been looking in one neighborhood where all houses have an extra room at the first-level. None of the houses in this neighborhood list that room as a bed-room.
Clot (#448)
Thanks. In light of the community reputation that the agent has, I think I’ll bite my tongue a little longer.
I’m surprised at the internet figures. The world has become more tech savvy than I give it credit for. Still, I think a prospective buyer ought to walk out of my house with a feature sheet at least. I certainly review the info and photos on those glossy cards after I’ve done a day of looking.
follow up to #463 (The house we are looking at has a room that the owners use as a bedroom and are listing as a bedroom, but it doesn’t have a closet. A co-worker has told me that in NJ a room must have a closet to be considered a bedroom. Is this true?):
If a room’s only entrance door is through ANOTHER room (the ‘master’ BR), can that fairly/legally be called a “bedroom”?
I’m looking at a twin listed with 3 BRs, can’t imagine anyone but an infant having a ‘br’ that’s only accessible by walking through another room, even though it has a closet…
thanks!
Kurt
Has anyone heard of this lender –
http://www.hsh.com/lshow/mountainmort.html
If anyone has worked with them in the past can you please pass on your thoughts?
FYI, I received an email yesterday from a realtor who’s been sending me listings for over a year now. I asked her about a particular house that’s been for sale on and off since 10/06 with a price drop of 50K off an original list of 575K. Anyway, what’s more important is that she said there’s A LOT of inventory (she stressed it in caps) and that if I waited until July/August, there will be more price drops and a bargain can be had. The area is in the route 80/287 vicinity or approximately 30 – 35 miles west of NYC.
Gary,
Do you mind if I ask exactly where you are looking? We may be looking at similar areas.
AK
A room without a closet can’t officially be listed as a bedroom, according to a realtor who showed me a property with this arrangement here in NJ. Don’t know what you’d need to add to satisfy the bedroom definition, i.e., portable closet, built-in, etc.
New-to-NJ,
It’s the Morris Plains/Parsippany/Denville area.
#464
Thanks for the response. This room is not an extra room on the first floor. It is actually on the 2nd floor with the rest of the bedrooms.
How would I find out if it is technically considered a bedroom? I called the tax assessor, because I figured the tax records should show whether it is classified as a 2 or 3 bedroom. The assessor was very unhelpful. He said the records are so old they would not indicate number of bedrooms, and even so they do not care whether a bedroom has a closet. I think he just didn’t want to look up the information for me.
AK
Because the house isn’t taxed on type of rooms but number of rooms (space). It may not be considered a bedroom but it is still liveable (taxable) space.
AK, looks like someone somewhere has discussed this before –
http://ths.gardenweb.com/forums/load/realestate/msg0908550227672.html
“Highest listed home in Cliffside Park – $624…and it’s a high-rise, not SFH
In Edgewater, 1 SFF listed at $649 (no garage as Don claims to have). Everything higher in price is a condo or townhouse.”
What are you talking about? The highest listed home in my town is $2,599,000. That is a HOUSE. Then there are condos. There is a condo penthouse listed for $2.125 million, that keeps going on and off the market. You also have the brand new Aurora condos for $2.5 million, but they are not in the MLS. YOu have to buy them through the sales office.
BC (461)-
It was some analyst getting interviewed, not one of the regulars.
C’mon, name names! Was it Kudlow…or the AM hosts at that party?
Start Over (465)-
Agreed. A nice brochure costs all of $1 USD to produce.
Just peeked in from my usual stomping grounds at Housing Bubble Blog.
I find the chatter with Donald to be most entertaining. His “advice” regarding RE market of course is ludicrous, but that is not at all bothersome. Indeed, that is OK. The other part of all this of course is that many of the things he says are true. No! Really! They ARE true.
But, you see, truth is not the end all of a reasoned discourse. You see, a statement must be RELEVANT to the issue at hand, not just true, to matter. Seems to me it is the disconnect that is stirring the pot. Donald’s thoughts “might” be true. The just also are utterly irrelevant.
To elaborate…
a) Donald might not ever ever ever entertain an offer below his wishing price, his originally paid price or some other randomly assigned “price”. If he has the ability either to stay in his house forever or to continue to pay Mortgage/Tax/Insurance/Upkeep while moving into a new place and carrying those expenses too, then he need never lower his price. His thus tells truth.
However, the overwhelming majority of humanity attempting to sell a house at any given time lacks this wonderful situation. They must sell. They cannot choose to stay in one location forever. They cannot carry the costs of two homes. Etc
b) Not accepting lowball offers, unable to negotiate, etc.
Donald conflates his claimed unwillingness to accept negotiation with his perception that any would-be-buyer must not negotiate. Anyone can negotiate. If one party opts not to play, then deal does not go through, but negotiation has happened.
Lowball? Sad word. There is no lowball in business dealings. There can be no “insulting offers”. Anyone who views his house as an investment will have to grow up and realize that business is business. If CISCO stock drops from $80 to $40, one cannot whine that the $40 is an insulting lowball offer. It is… simply… the market. In a wobbling housing market, lower priced offers will be the rule. They were for a long time. One can opt to “feel” insulted by an offer- hey we are a confused touchy feely people these days anyway- but the “feelings” of insult preceived by a trapped homeseller is not same as insult having actually been given.
c) Dropping housing prices of “only” 1.4%.
Well, of course i disagree with this, given the gaming of numbers. Foreclosures, REO’s and the like seem not to be included and really they are the new Comps as they define the leading- downward in this case- edge of the market.
But, to a degree Donald is correct, though again his correctness lacks relevance. Housing drops have not… yet… compensated for bubble gains. Houses certainly still cost more than they did six years ago, maybe 2 years ago. But big picture analysis requires more big picture viewpoint. As has been noted elsewhere, the nature of the housing market is one of much lesser liquidity than stocks. Many people- like Donald it seems- CAN hold onto a house much longer in face of a market shift, if they can AFFORD to keep making payments. A slow halting lingering painful death of a 1000 cuts will be the housing market. Drifting down over 5 years, maybe just 5-10 percent a year (don’t forget, even an imagined 1% drop really is 7% counting realtor fees, which negates 10% of profit) will characterize this fall. Figure 60% down over five years than a floor ten more years.
Folks could not imagine that $80 CISCO would hit $9, especially after its first drop to $78. Folks cannot imagine their houses that tripled in value giving up the 66% that will return price to same point (66% drop negates a 200% increase that raised price to 300% of original price). But, it is happening. It will happen slowly. But, Donald can keep his price where it is through all that… so long as he is in no rush to sell :-)
Housing deflation tends to be a staggered drawn out and painful affair.
In summary…
As we know, the housing bubble is similar to other bubbles in history. Prices detach from need or from affordability as the house or tulip or whatever is bought not from need but from expectation it will “only go up”.
If housing continues as it had the last few years, every person in what 40 years would be rich as Buffet, one of the few in history to sustain 20% per year at length. Y’all expect ALL homeowners to be Buffet , selling crapboxes for $20 milliion to folks whose incomes barely are above today’s levels? No. Crashes correct Bubbles… every time.
So, Donald tells the truth. If he is wealthy and is disinterested in selling his abode… or even if he just gets lucky… he need not sell his place for anything less than he chooses. That truth though, has no impact on the housing market as a whole.
post #2
Here is an excellent link demonstrating what the lenders are doing including actual letters to borrowers.
GMAC, Wamu they are all there.
http://www.afscanhelp.com/loan.cfm
No wonder the hedge funds are pissed.
Yeah, I tried to tell him that after his first post. He’s a pain, he’s a drain….he’s Mr. Market.
But Don has needed a little more clarification.
Don has needs.
evil – if it is OK with you, I will re-post your post after every The Donald entry…
—evil – if it is OK with you, I will re-post your post after every The Donald entry…—-
Sure, why not? I rather like the guy. Unbridled optimism in the face of reality has its charms.
I have a 5 year old “mcmansion”, contracted for with builder in late 2001 during the dip in prices after 9/11 at a price of $700,000, located in one of the most desireable newer developments in the town, mortgaged at the right time with a rock bottom mortgage rate that we’ll never get anything like now, one of the better located lots in the development…in 2005 I could have gotten $1.2 million for it. Since then, another development going up right now around 1/2 mile away in the same town, brand new homes that can be finished per the buyer’s choices and the homes are somewhat larger but don’t have basements (my house has a very large basement)and the location of the new homes is good but not as good as my home’s location, and the builder of the new homes is asking around $1.2 million for them (our house is in decent shape but does have 5 years of wear and tear from 3 kids and 2 dogs). In our town there’s a large inventory of for-sale homes that just sit on the market forever while the sellers are mostly still seeking prices that they could have sold for in 2005 or 2006. Want to move to a different particular town that has much higher taxes but I still want to move there due to school issues for my kids and the difference in overall culture between the two towns (we’ll be happier and fit in better there). Fell in love with a a better, bigger, 15 year old house in that better town; house was listed 3 months ago at $1.85 million and has just now dropped to $1.7 million; it was tax assessed at the height of the market in 2005 at $2.1 million. Looking for opinions re: what would be the most I could reasonably expect to get for my current house, and what would be the least I should reasonably offer for the house I want to move to? Also, we do not have any reason to make the move now and could comfortably wait another year school-wise (the main reason for the move), but the house we fell in love with is one of only about 10 houses in the entire town that are like it (all the rest are around 100 years old and a totally different style), so if we wait a year, chances are that at that time, there won’t be a house for sale that is similar to this one and we have the dilemma though in thinking that the market prices will still be going down for at least another 6 months (but then this house will be gone)while knowing that if we’re buying up, it would make sense to wait until the market hits bottom, and also because maybe interest rates will get lower then? What should we do? Sorry for the long and disorganized stream of thought post……I’m confused and nervous about getting in over my head.
Looking for opinions re: what would be the most I could reasonably expect to get for my current house, and what would be the least I should reasonably offer for the house I want to move to? Also, we do not have any reason to make the move now and could comfortably wait another year school-wise (the main reason for the move), but the house we fell in love with is one of only about 10 houses in the entire town that are like it (all the rest are around 100 years old and a totally different style), so —if we wait a year, chances are that at that time, there won’t be a house for sale that is similar to this one and we have the dilemma though in thinking that the market prices will still be going down for at least another 6 months (but then this house will be gone)—
A) Houses probabl will be ‘going down’ for another 5 years.
B) Besides the good chance the other house will not be gone in 6 months, there is better chance that lots of simliar houses will be coming on the market at ever increasing rates. Exact match no. So? Maybe next match better.
C) Chances are when all is said and done pricier houses will hae similar or more percentage drop translating into much bigger absolute price drop. IF your “1.2million” house drifts back down to 700k or less (it mite), the “1.8” million house eill drop to 900k or less. Weirdly enough, you will be better off waiting for your house to crash- assuming you can afford or opt to stay longer- as you will have to fork over a much smaller difference to get hte bigger house later.
The best choice- obviously- is sell now and make profit if that can be done (you mite be surprised how tough to sell house now), and rent for couple years. Rent nice rent casual but rent. Kids will survive. You sell your 1.2 milliion house that used to be 700k and if lucky really get say 1million now, instead of forking over (cash or in new bigger UGGGHH mortgage) extra 700k to “get into” 1700k house, take the 1 million, rent a couple years, buy the bigger house for 1.1 million instead of 1.7 million
—while knowing that if we’re buying up, it would make sense to wait until the market hits bottom, and also because maybe interest rates will get lower then?—-
On what basis do you believe rates will fall? “Maybes” need basis. Otherwise… maybe i’ll be able to buy up (beyond what my evil doctor’s salary allows) because maybe i’ll win lottery.
Waiting for market to tank is not wholly bad idea if wish to buy bigger house as 50% cut across whole market cuts the absolute diiff in financing new bigger place. Better is to sell before market hits bottom, rent couple years. You already missed the peak and mite have tough sell time, and no one ever can exactly time peak and valley, but plenty of room still for the looming crash.
Whatever you do, do NOT buy house before yours is sold. In this market that is the path to bankruptcy even for the wealthy.
— What should we do? Sorry for the long and disorganized stream of thought post……I’m confused and nervous about getting in over my head—-
Answers not heard.
First, soul search and find maturity and wisdom. Not easy in consumerist america. Given you want to move to a particular town, given the market is tanking and will go down for years your best bet is to sell and get profit you can, then rent a few years. People can rent $2million houses, often for 1/2 or less the cost of mortgage. Let money work for you. And if no GRAND house for sale, well take an OK house for rent that sells at $800k. Probably rent for $2k per month if lucky, fraction of cost of ownership. THen each month for two year or more, you can be happy to spend $2k on rent instead of $7k on monthly mortgage nut. In couple years when dust settles, then get a house.
Evil Doc, hanks for your thoughtful input. I really appreciate it, and am giving it all serious thought.