From the San Diego Union Tribune:
Housing slump into ’08 likely, study finds
The implosion of the subprime mortgage market is likely to prolong the national housing slump, Harvard University researchers said yesterday in their annual report on the state of the nation’s housing.
“At a minimum it will slow any recovery,” said Nicolas P. Retsinas, director of Harvard’s Joint Center for Housing Studies, which issued the report. “Add to that the overbuilding and the inventory correction and you can see why it appears, particularly for the new-home market, that this slump will last well into 2008.”Housing-industry analysts say the riskiest subprime adjustable-rate loans were made in 2005 and 2006. As they reset at higher interest rates through 2008, they are likely to fuel the current surge in foreclosures.
As lenders move to tighten loose credit standards and prevent defaults, it will become harder and harder for subprime borrowers to refinance into more affordable loans, Retsinas said.
“One of the aftermaths of the subprime implosion was a tightening of credit,” he said.
…
When housing is prohibitively expensive, the economy suffers, Retsinas said.“The danger is . . . you’re going to lose skilled workers who will move to a part of the country where they can get a job and afford a place to live.”
…
According to Harvard’s “The State of the Nation’s Housing 2007” report, everyone who attempted to profit during the nation’s housing boom – buyers, sellers, builders and investors – played a role in the market’s decline.“ . . . This housing downturn has been driven largely by the market’s own excesses,” the report said.
The full report can be found on the Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies website:
From the APP:
HUD audit hurts stock in Hovnanian
Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. shares hit a four-year low Monday after the home builder said it refunded 17 loans to home buyers on the recommendation of the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development.
The company was audited by HUD for referring home buyers to its own mortgage lending affiliate, Hovnanian said in a regulatory filing.
Red Bank-based Hovnanian said it refunded 17 loans worth a total of $5,190 on HUD’s “recommendation.” Still in dispute are 65 more loans worth $24,833 in all, the company said. Hovnanian said it also has agreed to certain changes recommended by HUD in what the company called its “quality control plans.” The company gave no details.
…
Hovnanian also has been accused in a legal complaint of requiring buyers to use its mortgage and title insurance affiliates, a violation of federal law.
The complaint, filed May 30 in U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Pennsylvania, alleges that the home builder offered two sets of prices to buyers — one set for buyers who used K. Hovnanian American Mortgage LLC, the Hovnanian affiliate, and a higher one for those who didn’t.
“Quite frankly, I think this practice is anti-competitive,” said Gary F. Lynch, an attorney with Carlson Lynch in New Castle, Pa., who filed the complaint. “Talk to the Countrywides and the Wells Fargoes and the other mortgage companies that don’t have that arrangement. They’re basically being foreclosed from doing any new construction business, and buyers don’t have a choice.”
The plaintiffs, Mark Mellar and Margaretann Liguori of Chester Springs, Pa., said in the complaint that Hovnanian violated the Real Estate Settlement Procedures Act, or RESPA. The law says builders can own mortgage and title insurance affiliates as long they don’t require buyers to borrow from them or use their insurance, Lynch said.
From the APP:
Commerce Bank to halt dealings with insiders
Commerce Bancorp, the largest bank based in New Jersey, plans to halt business transactions with insiders, including Chief Executive Officer Vernon Hill and his wife, that drew probes by two federal agencies.
The U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency advised Commerce “it expects the bank to enter into a consent order” covering transactions with related parties, as well as real estate and corporate governance policies, said a filing Monday with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia also expects Commerce “to enter into an informal memorandum of understanding,” the filing said.
Commerce said in January federal agencies were investigating transactions between the bank and its officers and directors. The bank leases land and space from partnerships that include Hill and buys services from companies employing members of his family, according to the company’s proxy statement last year.
From the Boston Herald:
Patrick files mortgage-fraud bill
With foreclosures rising across the state, Gov. Deval Patrick yesterday unveiled a plan to crack down on the controversial subprime mortgage industry.
In legislation filed on Beacon Hill, Patrick called for criminal penalties for mortgage fraud and for a ban on so-called “foreclosure rescue schemes.”
The governor’s bill also takes aim at the reported abuse of adjustable-rate mortgages by some subprime lenders, who target home buyers with poor credit.
Adjustable-rate deals would be banned for subprime borrowers unless the would-be homebuyers specifically opted out of a fixed-rate loan product.
From Bloomberg:
London Tops as World Commerce Center, MasterCard Says
London tops a list of 50 cities as the world’s commerce center, beating New York, Tokyo and Chicago, a report by MasterCard Inc., the world’s second-biggest credit- card company, showed.
London surpasses New York in four of six areas in the report covering economic stability, the ease of doing business, volumes of financial flows and attributes as a business center, MasterCard said in a statement today. The study is the latest saying New York lags behind London as a global commerce center.
“Once considered the unchallenged financial capital of the world, New York cedes to London a key dimension measuring financial transactions primarily because bond market regulations in New York affect the volume of listed sales,” MasterCard said in its first annual worldwide centers of commerce index.
The U.S. will lose its place as the world’s leading financial center in the next decade without legal and regulatory changes, according to report in January commissioned by New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg and Senator Charles Schumer. The total amount of money raised in Europe so far this year is 78 percent greater than the value of U.S. offerings, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, as stricter financial-reporting requirements in New York deter some companies from listing.
Italians Criticize U.S. Ratings Agencies
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/ap/fn/4868104.html
Italian lawmakers on Wednesday criticized major U.S. credit rating agencies, saying they ill-served international financiers by failing to properly evaluate the risks of investments tied to residential mortgages.
…
President Bush last fall signed legislation under which the government will more closely monitor credit ratings agencies, an effort designed to increase competition in the field that would also give the SEC expanded oversight over the credit agencies.
10Y yield touched the 5.2 range again last night.
jb
From the NY Times, various excerpts
Suburbs Are Graying Faster Than Big Cities
By SAM ROBERTS
Published: June 12, 2007
America’s suburbs, historically a haven for young families with children, are aging more rapidly than the nation’s central cities as the first suburban generation grows older.
At the same time, there are early signs of a possible trend of wealthier and more educated older suburbanites moving to the cities.
Those findings in a report released yesterday by the Brookings Institution, a nonpartisan research group, suggest that in most places, the fastest growth in elderly populations will result from the aging of baby boomers already living there, rather than from an infusion of retirees.
Florida still attracts the most elderly migrants. But the fastest overall growth of elderly people over the next two decades is projected for Georgia and Arizona, the slowest in Pennsylvania and New York.
Around New York City, the proportion of people 65 and older in the suburbs surpassed the city’s share in the 1980s. The city itself remains a mecca for younger job-seekers, and the influx of foreigners and higher fertility rates among immigrants have also been a brake on the rising median age (which ranges from under 32 in the Bronx to nearly 41 in Nassau County on Long Island).
The new demographics of aging present unique opportunities and challenges, both for the elderly and for their neighbors. While New York, Washington, Boston, San Francisco and Chicago, among others, may appeal to aging suburbanites, smaller cities and metropolitan areas are also marketing themselves as magnets for urban professionals ages 65 to 74, or “suppies,” many of whom are still working and who tend to be healthier and wealthier than other older people.
Dr. Frey said the increasing share of the elderly in the suburbs will place new demands on housing, health care, transportation and social services.
Aren’t these the same people who swore up and down a year ago that there was no bubble?
This is interesting. Senior Citizens condo project in Newton has removed age restrictions due to lack of sales….
http://www.njherald.com/289102425969610.php
From Reuters:
Lehman sees housing downturn lingering
The U.S. housing market downturn could linger for years but probably does not pose a major risk to the overall economy, Lehman Brothers’ chief global fixed-income strategist said on Monday.
“The subprime saga will not be sufficient to derail the U.S. and world economy,” Lehman’s Jack Malvey said at the Reuters Investment Summit in New York.”
Malvey said the U.S. economy, despite some recent volatility, is in the midst of a “benevolent cycle” and that the current “great moderation” could run into the 2009-2012 period before risks for a U.S. and global downturn pick up.
Still, Malvey said U.S. housing prices could fall into 2009 to 2011 by an average of the mid- to high single-digits, returning to levels last seen in early 2005.
“This issue will continue to shadow markets,” he said, adding the prolonged downturn “so far doesn’t seem to be the stuff of a significant recession in the making.”
Malvey said the subprime mortgage crisis that blew up in February had not completely played out, and that foreclosures “are probably going to accelerate.”
“The problem will be for all the homeowners who thought they could roll over into another teaser adjustable rate mortgage” but find that credit standards have been tightened, he said.
James Bednar Says:
June 12th, 2007 at 6:32 am
From Bloomberg:
London Tops as World Commerce Center, MasterCard Says
London tops a list of 50 cities as the world’s commerce center, beating New York, Tokyo and Chicago, a report by MasterCard Inc., the world’s second-biggest credit- card company, showed.
grim: I heard commentary about this issue 3 months ago. It is a little misleading. NY-based i-banks are skirting SarbOx and sending their NYC talent to London to work. So there is a lot of off-shored NYC controlled activity taking in place in London. [Mayor] Bloomberg is correct that SarbOx is causing the problem, but also it a continental issue. Europe is where the action is right now, and they used to come to NYC to get things done, but if the same people are off-shored in London, and you can get listed in Europe and receive the same liquidity, superior pricing, and less regulation …. go for it.
SarBox is not the reason listings are going to London. In fact very few AAA companies went to the LSE over NYSE or NASD. A lot of high fliers similar to 1999 with loose accounting and poor internal controls who could not pass SOX went to LSE. What London is doing is rolling the dice, when we have our next corection, terror attach or recession lets see how those poorly run companies run, if a lot of recent LSE IPOs post SOX go belly up that whole LSE thing is a dead horse and NYSE/NASD is back on top. Plus in the exchange consolidation space a lot of european exchanges are being owned by US exchanges so the money is flowing back to US headquarters anyhow.
“ . . . This housing downturn has been driven largely by the market’s own excesses,” the report said.”
Then out of the blue, it implodes under the burdensome weight of its own insanity. Well, the economy is good and employment is strong? Bob Toll is scratching his head. The problem with that analysis Bob; that’s the answer. Forget about the answer, dig up the question. Once the answer is apparent it’s too late, the trade is finished. Markets are anticipatory, not backward looking nor trading today’s news. Search for the questions.
The elevator, on the way up is a local, stops at all floors. On the way down, more like an express. Unfortunately, for those long, you can expect this pop to overshoot on the decline. Just the manner in which markets adjust. Remember, in the history of the markets, there has not been one bubble that has not resulted in a bust.
“dead horse and NYSE/NASD is back on top.”
John,
I hear that the NYSE is contemplating dropping the NY. Maybe replacing it with something like Global.
nyx will change the name,,, because:
More business is coming from around the
world than the US.
funny, I remember when the Joint Center (hmm) at Harvard said there was no bubble (about 1.5 yrs back)
they have limited credibility at this point
This is interesting. Senior Citizens condo project in Newton has removed age restrictions due to lack of sales….
From the article:
“It’s going to be age-targeted now,” said Town Manager Eileen Kithcart. “Anyone going in will see it’s not geared toward families.” She said that now the units will be marketed more toward urban professionals in their 40s and 50s.
Funny. I can see the conversation between the developer & town:
Developer: “These things aren’t selling, please let us drop the age restriction. Were dying here…and by extension…so will your tax revenues”
Town: “I’m not sure. We really want tax revenue, but without more pressure on schools. That’s why we approved age restricted housing”
Developer: “Don’t worry about a thing. Families won’t want to move here. We’ll find a bunch of middle-age professionals past peak child-having age, who don’t already own something and are in the market for a condo in Newton. Shouldn’t be a problem at all”
Developers pulled this same line in my town during the late 80’s boom. Promises of condo’s filled professions filling the tax coffers without burdening services. The problem was that the condos were the only form of affordable housing in the area. Young families with kids moved-in in droves, the schools were overcrowded and taxes quickly went up.
With units beginning at $299, I’ll bet some young families see this as a foot in the door to ownership. Do you really think this developer is going to turn away potential bagholders?
#113 BC Bob Just like so many people I know that told me it would be a soft landing, when I asked to point out when we have had a soft landing before, well than the blank looks, the stares, the hurt, etc.
And now nobody wnats to talk at all, amazing, its like it is not happening.
From Reuters:
Countrywide loans up 15 pct, foreclosures double
Countrywide Financial Corp. , the largest U.S. mortgage lender, on Tuesday said it made 15 percent more home loans in May as the pace of refinancings increased, though the foreclosure rate doubled.
…
Countrywide also said pending foreclosures as a percentage of unpaid principal balances rose to 0.90 percent from 0.45 percent a year earlier, and 0.85 percent in April.
Foreclosures based on the number of loans serviced rose to 0.71 percent from 0.47 percent a year earlier, and 0.69 percent in April, Countrywide said.
Countrywide has long said it expected to add market share as the U.S. housing slowdown and rising defaults caused weaker rivals to scale back. It said it ended May with $69.74 billion of loans in its pipeline, the most since October 2005.
At the same time, Countrywide is also trying to cut risk. Nonprime loans, including “subprime” loans, sank 43 percent to $2.19 billion, just 5 percent of total volume.
From Reuters:
Lehman Brothers quarterly earnings rise 27 percent
Investment bank Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. on Tuesday said its second-quarter profit rose 27 percent as surging bond underwriting and stock trading revenue more than made up for bond trading results hurt by U.S. mortgage weakness.
Lehman’s bond business has traditionally been seen as its crown jewel, and underwriting revenue in that sector rose 86 percent.
But in recent years, Lehman has also been investing heavily in areas including equities trading and asset management. The company said equity trading revenue jumped 94 percent.
Those areas helped offset a 14 percent decline in bond trading revenue, which was hurt by weakness in the U.S. mortgage market, as well as decreased revenue in interest-rate products and municipal bonds.
John (12)-
The real action is on the continent, in individual companies that are just tearing it up. Not surprisingly, the more Western Europe moves away from the welfare state, the better some of these companies do. “Profit” is not a dirty word anymore.
Just check out VOLV, FIA, MICC, RYAAY, AKH, NHY or ELE. Sure beats holding some some crummy US bank or pharma stock, collecting an all-too-shaky dividend and waiting for them to make a move that seemingly never happens.
All disclaimers.
Weichert Headquarters in Morris Plains has agents on the corner this morning dressed up in Open House Sign costumes. The one guy was dancing. By the time I got out my cell phone to take a picture he had moved back away from me. Next time I will make sure I get the picture to share.
Rachel
From Bloomberg:
Subprime Second-Mortgage Bond Downgrades Surging, Moody’s Says
Moody’s Investors Service so far this year has cut or considered lowering ratings on 139 classes of securitizations in 2006 of U.S. subprime second mortgages.
The ratings actions, which compares with 29 for 2005 issues, comprise 14 percent of the classes of subprime second- mortgage bonds sold last year, New York-based Moody’s said in a report last week. That compares with 1.5 percent for classes of bonds backed by first-lien subprime mortgages from 2006.
Subprime home lenders starting in late 2005 began making more “piggyback” second mortgages to serve in lieu of down payments to try to make up for a surge in home prices and tighter margins on first-lien lending, Jack McCleary, UBS AG’s head of asset-backed trading, said at a January conference. The move backfired as many of both loan types soured, he said.
“Relaxed underwriting standards primarily associated with combined first and second lien piggyback arraignments have led to the marked deterioration in performance,” Eric Fellows, a senior credit officer at Moody’s, said in a June 7 report.
Moody’s, one of the two largest credit-ratings companies, said it has taken negative actions on 10 classes of AAA-rated securitizations of second-mortgages. The highest rating warned about among subprime first-mortgage bonds has been A.
Rachel (22)-
$10,000 USD to you if you get me a photo of Jim Weichert dressed in a monkey suit.
Clot,
Look east, not west. From the AP/Chicago Tribune this morning:
Poland reaping fruits of joining EU
Poland’s economy expanded at a 7.4 percent annual rate in the first three months of the year, the best since 7.6 percent in the second quarter of 1997. That comes after a healthy 6.7 percent for 2006 that outpaced the euro zone’s 2.7 percent.
Economists say more jobs are putting money in people’s pockets, and more spending is spurring businesses to expand.
“Everything is in the right place,” says Mateusz Szczurek, the chief economist for ING Bank Slaski in Warsaw.
After the lean years of the early 2000s, when the economy stagnated and unemployment soared to a post-communist high of 20.7 percent, Poland is benefiting from the fastest investment growth in a decade, analysts say.
Marta Petka, an analyst at Raiffeisen Bank in Warsaw, said the expansion started when Poland joined the EU in 2004.
“And then exports gave a push to the next growth locomotive: investment,” Petka said.
“$10,000 USD”
Clot,
What happens if she demands it in Euros or CD??
Hey they can drop the NY name. Actually they no longer just trade stocks and they are no longer are just in NY so a name change makes sense. Bottom line headquarters will still be in NY. Right next door to NYSE is ISE, The International Securities Exchange which does Stock, Options etc. and is part of Euroclear and Deutsche Borse – Their name better reflects what they do. But the NYSE name is known around the globe and Look at AT&T – They kept their american telephone and telegraph name!!!!
BC Bob Says:
June 12th, 2007 at 8:26 am
“dead horse and NYSE/NASD is back on top.”
John,
I hear that the NYSE is contemplating dropping the NY. Maybe replacing it with something like Global.
Rachel #22,
That is classic.
#22 Racheal,
These the same agents that convinced the poor people to overextend themselves for their capital gain. I hope they starve. I hope to see them on the subway asking for food.
According to clot the REA is a financial professional. GED not required.
MM
By SAM ROBERTS
Published: June 12, 2007
America’s suburbs, historically a haven for young families with children, are aging more rapidly than the nation’s central cities as the first suburban generation grows older.
first?
What about the WW II veterans who were the original settlers in a lot of these suburban developments, be it NJ or CA?
HS diploma or GED is required for licensure..
jb
Weichert Headquarters in Morris Plains has agents on the corner this morning dressed up in Open House Sign costumes.
A few weeks ago an independent agency in Clifton held an “open house” of their own. They had a big tent, popcorn machine, clowns, were cooking hamburgers & hot dogs on the grill and had one of those bouncy castle things for the kids.
This was on a Saturday afternoon in the spring. Too years ago on a Saturday in the spring, a Realtor® wouldn’t give you the time of day unless you were selling a home or were prepared to make an offer on something. Now, they are cooking hot dogs & wearing costumes. Times have changed.
My parents are having a hard time selling their house. “A friend of the family” is selling it through Weichert. Mistake one. Mistake two is allowing the agent to tell them that $465,000 is a good price. It should be in the $415-425,000 range possibly even $400,000. Anyway, three months wasted as it’s been on the market since March 2 and no one has looked at it yet. Oh the bubble is real, VERY REAL.
Well since realtors only have a GED or HS degree it is good they are brushing up on grilling burgers and running kids parties cause that is going to be their next job until RE comes back sometime around 2011.
RentinginNJ Says:
June 12th, 2007 at 9:57 am
Weichert Headquarters in Morris Plains has agents on the corner this morning dressed up in Open House Sign costumes.
A few weeks ago an independent agency in Clifton held an “open house” of their own. They had a big tent, popcorn machine, clowns, were cooking hamburgers & hot dogs on the grill and had one of those bouncy castle things for the kids.
This was on a Saturday afternoon in the spring. Too years ago on a Saturday in the spring, a Realtor® wouldn’t give you the time of day unless you were selling a home or were prepared to make an offer on something. Now, they are cooking hot dogs & wearing costumes. Times have changed.
I have to say, it does make me nervous to even consider the fact that a person who has a GED or HS diploma is handling the most important financial transaction I’ll ever make (in regards to my comment of yesterday). Hundreds of thousands of dollars worth, with minimal accountability on their part.
“My parents are having a hard time selling their house. “A friend of the family” is selling it through Weichert. Mistake one. Mistake two is allowing the agent to tell them that $465,000 is a good price. It should be in the $415-425,000 range possibly even $400,000. Anyway, three months wasted as it’s been on the market since March 2 and no one has looked at it yet. Oh the bubble is real, VERY REAL.”
Joey, do your parents have an exclusive contract with Weichert? If it’s running up, tell them to get out. I’m sure you can find a better agent.
My baby bro went to London for a year to work in the back office operations of a major US financial institution, along with some of his other compadres. This was several years ago. Seems like the companies saw this coming, or were hedging their bets and had a plan A and a plan B…this was prior to 9/11.
He had a blast and really enjoyed the pub life style.
I remember Harvard’s forecast of a year ago dismissing the bubble, as Skep pointed out, which annoyed me at the time. They should have been visiting here instead of running their Ivory tower models. Many so-called experts have had to eat their words. I especially like Morgan’s? call for the Fed lowering rates this year, which they now admit ain’t gonna happen. Several of us here are on record for no rate decreases this year and few of us are pulling down the kind of bucks lavished on the top guys at the big investment banks.
anyone have he goods on MLS 2365076
It’s in Glen Rock and has only been listed for ‘3 days’ which probably means 6 months.
Looks like this is/was a flipper – zillow tells me they bought 3 yrs ago for 400k. the backyard is very tiny and looks to be up against a middle school or something …
#24
How would you be sure it was him and not a ‘real’ monkey?
How would you be sure it was him and not a ‘real’ monkey?
A real monkey would not stoop that low.
Two years ago we had a real estate agent walk away from us as my wife was in mid-sentence. She walked away the nano second she heard that we didn’t think the house (open house) was something we’d be interested in.
They were a real arrogant bunch and I won’t be shedding a tear when the move to their new careers as phone telemarketers.
Well if they can’t sell your house maybe you can get a free burger out of it!!
(36) NJGal Says:
Joey, do your parents have an exclusive contract with Weichert? If it’s running up, tell them to get out. I’m sure you can find a better agent.
Mistake three. 6 month contract that’s due to end in SEPTEMBER!! Might as well be D-Day as if they don’t sell by the time school starts they’re probably not going to sell at all.
>>10Y yield touched the 5.2 range again last night.
i still say it’s an overreaction and probably the last leg down due to unwinding positions. expect a return to 5.15% in the short then it’ll drift down by year’s end. what’s positive are rates are pressured upwards due to growth not weakness.
(43)
I do love a tasty burger.
Harvard study: How can anybody look at the unprecedented runup in housing prices from 1998-2005, in some areas a 50-70% increase, and say that this downturn is going to be over with a year or two of zero price growth? Housing was not that severely undervalued prior to this bubble.
They should have been visiting here instead of running their Ivory tower models
I do a lot of work with economic models. They are of very little use with the current housing situation. The main problem is that the models assume perfectly rational behavior. They are not subject to “irrational exuberance” or panics. What we are dealing with today is a housing market driven by psychology and not the fundamentals.
RentinginNJ,
It’s a market driven by greedy bast*rds, sheep and morons.
Wannabe Buyers Welcome Housing Slump
Sunday June 10, 2:16 pm ET
By Alex Veiga, AP Business Writer
Wannabe Buyers Welcome Housing Market Slump, but Lenders Tighten Mortgage Standards
LOS ANGELES (AP) — Kurt Montufar isn’t stressing over the housing slump. He’s actually hoping things get worse. Like many wannabe homebuyers who were priced out of the market during the last boom, Montufar spends time these days scanning real estate ads and news reports to determine if it’s time to take the plunge and buy.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070610/housing_slump_hopefuls.html?.v=6&.pf=loans
NJ-Bound in 2008 Says:
June 12th, 2007 at 10:30 am
anyone have he goods on MLS 2365076
Sorry I can’t help. This number is from the GSMLS, and is not listed under the NJMLS (primarily Bergen County).
James Bednar Says:
June 12th, 2007 at 9:31 am
Clot,
Look east, not west. From the AP/Chicago Tribune this morning:
Poland reaping fruits of joining EU
grim: I did know kielbasa was a fruit.
Is a 10′ easement/town right of way a liability in a prospective property? How big a liability? Should one take that into account for a lowball or simply avoid?
Any thoughts? Thanks.
Richard Says:
June 12th, 2007 at 10:42 am
it’ll drift down by year’s end. what’s positive are rates are pressured upwards due to growth not weakness.
Reech: the only think that drifts is my attention when I read your posts
John Says:
June 12th, 2007 at 8:21 am
SarBox is not the reason listings are going to London. In fact very few AAA companies went to the LSE over NYSE or NASD. A lot of high fliers similar to 1999 with loose accounting and poor internal controls who could not pass SOX went to LSE. What London is doing is rolling the dice, when we have our next corection, terror attach or recession lets see how those poorly run companies run, if a lot of recent LSE IPOs post SOX go belly up that whole LSE thing is a dead horse and NYSE/NASD is back on top. Plus in the exchange consolidation space a lot of european exchanges are being owned by US exchanges so the money is flowing back to US headquarters anyhow.
John: you are agreeing with me….why does your first sentence include “not”?
Is a 10′ easement/town right of way a liability in a prospective property? How big a liability? Should one take that into account for a lowball or simply avoid?
Any thoughts? Thanks.
If its a large lot and the easement is off on some corner that you don’t care about, its not a problem. If it’s 5 feet from your front door however, then its obviously an issue
“expect a return to 5.15% in the short then it’ll drift down by year’s end”
Dangerous game; fighting worldwide trends/momentum.
chicagofinance Says:
June 12th, 2007 at 10:59 am
James Bednar Says:
June 12th, 2007 at 9:31 am
Clot,
Look east, not west. From the AP/Chicago Tribune this morning:
Poland reaping fruits of joining EU
grim: I didN’T know kielbasa was a fruit.
:(
x-underwriter,
thanks. Whether the easement impinges on your privacy is what counts and where it is in relation to the front door, master bdrm window, etc. I get it.
Sorry guys, but realtors are not starving. I know a half dozen realtors in my area that live in homes worth more than $1 million. Not bad for someone with only a HS diploma. I have many relatives who are doctors and their homes do not compare.
Yeah Donald,
But I bet those realtors have sub-prime loans!
#59
also– what type of easement is it? e.g., does it allow for constructing power lines, etc?
I doubt they took subprime loans. Many of them own their own companies. The mayor’s son owns a multi-gazzilion dollar RE empire.
Don’t feed the troll.
Sorry guys, but realtors are not starving. I know a half dozen realtors in my area that live in homes worth more than $1 million
Anybody can Sorry guys, but realtors are not starving. I know a half dozen realtors in my area that live in homes worth more than $1 million
Sure. They probably bought them from dot com day traders. At least to the day traders benefits, they got to sell those homes into an hot market to avoid foreclosure.
We’ll see how many of these realtors® can continue to meet their debt service on million dollar homes now that those commission checks aren’t rolling in like they used to.
I have a friend who is (soon to be was) a mortgage broker, who was pulling in over $200k/year. He ran out and bought a $60k Mercedes thinking the good times would last forecer. Now he is making a quarter of what he was making during the boom. That car payment is now an Albatross.
Donald,
Can you give me some insight on this article?
Nation Doomed 2 Million foreclosures in the next 5 years study says.
http://realestate.yahoo.com/Real_estate_news/story?s=rytimes/item-7a561f8d38111a8d3ce9cf67da8e277b.html
make money,
how about you give me some insight into the article JB posted. Get your fscts straight. The foreclosure numbers are wrong. Realty Trac counted the same homes multiple times.
“But following complaints from a number of housing experts the Irvine, Calif.-based firm double- and triple-counts properties as they move through various stages of the foreclosure process, RealtyTrac said it plans to change the way it crunches the widely followed data.
RealtyTrac told The Star-Ledger starting as early as next month, it will publish the number of unique households affected by foreclosure, in addition to releasing its usual recap of new filings.
The change is expected to dramatically decrease the number of foreclosures in any given state, according to RealtyTrac. Under the change, New Jersey could find itself in the middle of the pack, instead of having the 12th-highest foreclosure rate in the country under RealtyTrac’s current reporting system.”
Your 2 million figure is, in reality, well under 1 million. No more than 800,000.
#62,
Another good point. If I decide to check out the property, I’ll be sure and confirm the type of easement and what it allows.
Do not feed the troll.
“Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt.”
Abraham Lincoln
sorry, haven’t even been to that site.
Get the prescription to your meds updated. The old on isn’t working anymore
if anyone here believes that the stuff written here or on the kannekt website (or any other blog) will have ANY impact on housing prices, well I have some nice land in Florida for you…………..
Donald said: “I doubt they took subprime loans. Many of them own their own companies. The mayor’s son owns a multi-gazzilion dollar RE empire.”
The cabal that runs Cliffside Park, and its extended families, are not people to be admired.
How do you think they amassed their empires?
Harvard study: How can anybody look at the unprecedented runup in housing prices from 1998-2005, in some areas a 50-70% increase, and say that this downturn is going to be over with a year or two of zero price growth?
The list of organizations funding the study should reveal that answer:
84 Lumber Company
AFG Industries, Inc.
Andersen Corporation
Armstrong World Industries, Inc.
Beazer Homes USA, Inc.
BlueLinx Corporation
Boise Cascade, LLC
Boral Industries
The Bozzuto Group
Bradco Supply Corporation
Builders FirstSource
Building Materials Holding Corporation
Canfor Corporation
Centex Corporation
CertainTeed Corporation
Champion Enterprises
Countrywide Financial Corporation
Crosswinds Communities
Fannie Mae
Fortune Brands Home and Hardware
Freddie Mac
GAF Materials Corporation
Georgia-Pacific Corporation
Gibraltar Industries
Hanley Wood, LLC
Hearthstone
The Home Depot
Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc.
Huttig Building Products, Inc.
Jeld-Wen
Johns Manville Corporation
KB Home
Kimball Hill Homes
Kohler Company
Lafarge North America
Lennar Corporation
Louisiana-Pacific Corporation
Marvin Windows and Doors
Masco Corporation
Masonite International Corporation
McGraw-Hill Construction
Meritage Homes Corporation
MI Windows and Doors, Inc.
Moulding and Millwork, Inc.
Move, Inc.
National Gypsum Company
Oldcastle Building Products, Inc.
Owens Corning
Pacific Coast Building Products
Pella Corporation
Pro-Build Holdings, Inc.
Pulte Homes, Inc.
Realogy Corporation
Reed Business Information
Rinker Materials Corporation
The Ryland Group
S&B Industrial Minerals S.A.
The Sherwin-Williams Company
Simpson Strong-Tie
Stock Building Supply
Temple-Inland
UBS Investment Bank
Weyerhaeuser
Whirlpool Corporation
“The cabal that runs Cliffside Park, and its extended families, are not people to be admired.”
I think they should be admired because of their huge success. I wish I was half as rich as they are. The mayor is lucky. He has been in power since 1955.
We should not hate rich people. People in government are rich. Corzine is rich. Bloomberg is filthy rich. The army of Democrats and Republicans running for president are rich.
Options prices on the December fed funds futures contract as of yesterday showed traders see a 44 percent chance the central bank will raise its benchmark interest rate a quarter-percentage point to 5.5 percent by the end of the year. A month ago, there were no expectations of a rate increase.
China’s inflation accelerated at the fastest pace in more than two years in May, increasing the likelihood that the central bank will lift rates. The consumer price index reached 3.4 percent in the 12 months through May, the highest since 3.9 percent in February 2005.
I like how everyone is avoiding mentioning the article about RealtyTrac on the home page. Sorry it supports my agenda and not yours.
I am saying that most companies are publicly blaming SARBOX for listing overseas. Take a company like Chase at best they spend 30 million a year on SARBOX, they have a trillion dollar balance sheet and that 30 million is not all SARBOX, they leverage it for Supervisory Controls, FDICIA, BASEL II, GLB, IA, Op Risk etc. so they can’t save 30 million by listing elsewhere as they still have to identify tons of risk etc. In realty there are other factors at work why companies are listing overseas. Most importantly in 2006/7 there were a ton of overseas companies, think China that did IPOs. Do we expect all Chinese companies to list on NYSE or all European companies to list on NYSE instead of LSE. Our last boom 1999 in IPOs they were mainly US companies so of course they listed on NYSE etc. Remember when SARBOX passed in late 2002 that is when the market really turned around. I know SARBOX sucks but it is just another of many annoying regulations that public companies have to deal with it is not all everyone makes it out to be.
chicagofinance Says:
June 12th, 2007 at 11:01 am
John Says:
June 12th, 2007 at 8:21 am
SarBox is not the reason listings are going to London. In fact very few AAA companies went to the LSE over NYSE or NASD. A lot of high fliers similar to 1999 with loose accounting and poor internal controls who could not pass SOX went to LSE. What London is doing is rolling the dice, when we have our next corection, terror attach or recession lets see how those poorly run companies run, if a lot of recent LSE IPOs post SOX go belly up that whole LSE thing is a dead horse and NYSE/NASD is back on top. Plus in the exchange consolidation space a lot of european exchanges are being owned by US exchanges so the money is flowing back to US headquarters anyhow.
John: you are agreeing with me….why does your first sentence include “not”?
make (29)-
Stop misquoting me. I’m a financial professional.
People who dress up and stand out on Rt 10 are morons.
Donald,
You have to understand that the article doesn’t change the fact that the number of foreclosures is still much higher than it was in the past. Comparing previous foreclosure numbers to the new method they will be using, and finding that “foreclosures have gone down” is an incorrect conclusion, you would have to recalculate the past reports to see what the actual numbers and trends are.
Joey (33)-
Many moons ago, I started with Weichert. And, what’s rule #1 there?
You can’t get a price reduction on a listing you don’t have.
I shouldn’t point a finger just at Weichert; this is pretty much how all companies operate. These guys will take listings at ANY price the seller wants.
My delete finger is really itchy today.
jb
Sassy (35)-
Is it the barely-educated agent’s fault…or is it the fault of the buyer or seller who doesn’t interview thoroughly and doesn’t bother to ask even ONE tough question of that barely-educated agent?
If a homeowner turns himself over to such a charlatan, whatever misfortune befalls him is his own damn fault.
JB, may want to consider having deleted posts remain with “[DELETED]” as the text, so it doesn’t throw off the numbering.
Hahaha, Give then a little line, feel the bite, wait for it, wait for it, BAM, reel them in! Give a little line and let them swim a bit and BAM reel them in again. I can watch/read this all day!
Gary (49)-
“It’s a market driven by greedy bast*rds, sheep and morons.”
Gary, into which of these three camps do you fall?
You may select more than one category. Please illustrate your answer with a Venn Diagram.
i know this is more north jersey than south jersey…but in burl co..I’m not seeing anything dropping…in fact, it looks like the prices are higher than 6 months ago….has everyone lost their minds?
Grim-
I hear all kinds of W. European doctors and surgeons take a $39 Ryannair flight (symbol: RYAAY) into Warsaw 2-3 times a week, do a day’s work, and fly back home for dinner.
#86
I second the motion re “[DELETED]”
Reech (45)-
This one has to go into your personal Top 10:
“…what’s positive are rates are pressured upwards due to growth not weakness.”
No one wants to touch any debt of ours with a longer maturity than the life of a fruit fly…and that’s NOT weakness?
You know these sites make it seem the market is crashing big time but meanwhile houses are still pretty close to the all time highs. A house worth 300K in 2001 that reached 600K in 2005 that is now $550k in 2007 is not really a screaming bargin!
billz Says:
June 12th, 2007 at 1:22 pm
i know this is more north jersey than south jersey…but in burl co..I’m not seeing anything dropping…in fact, it looks like the prices are higher than 6 months ago….has everyone lost their minds?
Why the assumption that we’re all a bunch of slobbering morons who barely passed the GED? There are plenty of educated people within our ranks; you just have to look for them.
Funny how the people here who are the most critical of Realtors are the ones who have- sometimes repeatedly- invariably associated themselves with the worst of us.
Reeks of confirmation bias.
“…what’s positive are rates are pressured upwards due to growth not weakness.”
I didnt notice any major growth in the last month. The only thing that has changed is that the rest of the world continues to raise interest rates.
clot,
It’s the other way around as well..
Cheap European flights cater to both commuting doctors and drunken revelers
http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/02/22/bloomberg/bxair.php
Andrzej Majewski, a Pole who works as a thoracic surgeon in Britain, catches a ride to the airport in Wroclaw on Sundays and hops a Ryanair flight to his hospital in Nottingham, England.
Most Fridays he commutes home to southwest Poland. The flights cost him about $50 each way.
“It takes about three hours, and I’m eating lunch at my house,” Majewski said.
jb
Gary, it’s a well-known fact that over 95% of realtors are complete clowns.
I shouldn’t point a finger just at Weichert; this is pretty much how all companies operate. These guys will take listings at ANY price the seller wants.
Clot,
Have you ever turned down a listing where you felt the seller was unrealistic? Or, is it better to just take any listing you can get, even if the seller is looking for an unrealistic price, with the hopes of talking them down when it doesn’t sell? Maybe agree to the whole “we’ll try your price for 2 weeks, but you agree to try it my way if we don’t see any interest in your house” thing.
I just seems that with so many homes for sale, you would have more room to turn away a patently unrealistic seller that is just going to waste your time and money.
Un (97)-
95% Sure it’s not 93%…or 97%? Was it a JD Power survey that established that “well-known fact”?
Go back to your Zillow. They have some new purty pictures for you to stare at.
How can anyone admire a mayor who put dozens of people out of their businesses by using eminent domain and now plans on building a high rise where one is not needed nor would it help the area. Plenty of highrises on River Road and Fort lee.
Renting (98)-
Have I ever! And, I’ve turned down more listings than ever over the past two years.
I’ll agree to try an owner’s price for 2-3 weeks…ONLY if that price is within a reasonable range of where I feel the sale will occur, AND the seller pre-signs a price reduction sheet that specifies the date and amount of the eventual reduction.
Most of my listings over the past 18 months are expireds and withdrawns. They’re much easier to get, since they’ve already had their teeth kicked in and are usually ready to listen to reason.
Denis McGlynn, president and C.E.O. at Dover International Speedway quoted in the New York Times’ Sports Section re: falling/flattening attendance at NASCAR races:
“Three-dollar gas prices and rising adjustable-rate mortgages are moderating factors for the whole industry.”
The story is titled: Tradition Is Renewed at Pocono and is available at: http://www.nytimes.com/2007/06/12/sports/othersports/12nascar.html?_r=1&oref=slogin
(subscription required)
James Bednar Says:
June 12th, 2007 at 1:39 pm
clot,
It’s the other way around as well..
Cheap European flights cater to both commuting doctors and drunken revelers
http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/02/22/bloomberg/bxair.php
Andrzej Majewski, a Pole who works as a thoracic surgeon in Britain, catches a ride to the airport in Wroclaw on Sundays and hops a Ryanair flight to his hospital in Nottingham, England.
Most Fridays he commutes home to southwest Poland. The flights cost him about $50 each way.
“It takes about three hours, and I’m eating lunch at my house,” Majewski said.
jb
Just wait for oil to hit 100$++/barrel – we will see how much thouse flights will cost.
I think it wil be a 100$ before 2007 – that is unless major financial/economical crisis happens in India/China/USA.
Ohh make it Before 2010…
From MarketWatch:
10-year auction attracts weak indirect bid
An auction of $8 billion in 10-year Treasury notes Tuesday afternoon attracted an exceptionally weak 10.9% indirect bid, the carefully watched category that includes foreign central banks. The weak showing comes at a time of worry that foreign central banks are backing away from Treaasurys as they switch their reserves into assets with higher yields. The auction produced an average bid-to-cover – or bids rendered to bids accepted – ratio of 2.55, which points to stable domestic demand. The auction also produced a high yield of 5.23% and a median yield of 5.210%. The weak auction accelerated a Treasury market selloff; the benchmark note last was down 18/32 94-13/32 with a yield of 5.23%, nearly its best level since July 6, 2006.
Realtor is to professional as petroleum transport engineer is to gas jockey.
Just wait for oil to hit 100$++/barrel – we will see how much thouse flights will cost.
At that point his foreign patients will fly to him.
jb
“…what’s positive are rates are pressured upwards due to growth not weakness.”
Growth of money supply?
Resident Realtor™ shill clotpoll writes:
Was it a JD Power survey that established that “well-known fact”?
Actually no, it was a pompous, arrogant, and hostile realtor who shared that piece of information:
https://njrereport.com/index.php/2007/05/14/real-estate-market-worse-than-reported/#comment-94646
I’m getting frustrated with sellers who refuse to accept my bids at comp. I can’t believe my buyer’s agent has to convince the seller or seller’s agent to accept what the house is actually worth. It’s absurd. I think we’re still in the denial stage.
I can certainly see why the housing slump will continue, seller’s are reluctant to accept the market. When I bid at comps, what more can they expect? It seems it truly is a market where a majority are just fishing for offers hoping for the best.
LeeorS,
Let ’em all stew. They need you, you don’t need them.
Clot,
Boiler room chop shop brokers have more knowledge of their industry then REA know and understand RE. They had to pass a serious exam.(7)
Your lax licensing standards and the boom has attacted every moron and bagholder wanna be to get into RE for a quick buck.
I never met a broker that will sell you a stock that he KNOWS we’ll go down. At least in their minds they think they’re selling you a good product. REA know this bubble is gonna pop and 1 in 4 subprime loans will go to foreclosure and they tell their clients to buy now and borrow half a million subprime dollars so that they can make their 3% cut.
Between, being ignorant morons and sending family’s into a financial ruin for the rest of their lives they “the financial proffesionals they are” are convicing and encouraging them that it’s a great time to buy.
Financial professional make money by making their clients money and not by ruining them. What REA have done to people in the past two years in straight FRAUD.
Please do your self a favor and stop asking for “respect”.
LeeorS — In a buyer’s market, you need not offer at comps. Rather, offer a bit lower to set the new comps. Time to move on.
unrealtor #109
great post.
From CNBC:
Homebuilders New Mantra: Don’t Talk To The Media!
I’m blogging to you from the J.P. Morgan Basics and Industrials Conference in mid-town Manhattan, where I’ve never in my life seen so many freaked out CEOs. I say this only because not nine months ago I attended a similar UBS conference, where the homebuilder CEOs and their CFOs and their PR reps and their baggage handlers and their mother-in-laws were all fighting with each other to jump in front of our cameras to talk about the recovery shining brightly ahead in the housing market.
This, of course, was pre-subprime meltdown. They all predicted a happy spring, when sales would rebound and everyone would start spending money they didn’t have again, like in the previous boom years.
Well it didn’t pan out that way. So here I am again, same type of conference, same camera, same boring business suit so as not to frighten off all the corporate suits, and all of a sudden I might as well be Usama Bin Laden. Apparently, I personally blew up the housing market. Here’s what the CEO of Ryland Homes said when I asked for a quick interview: “No, you guys make us look like idiots, absolutely not.” Said the CEO of D.R. Horton , “NO, not now, not after the presentation, NO.” Said the CEO of Standard Pacific Corp. , “Thanks for asking, uh, I don’t think so, no, real busy today, back to back meetings, nope can’t do it.”
#88 Clotpoll
You know, it is important to interview your RE (and any other person you trust your life savings to…brokers, pension outfits, 529s, etc..), and education level is far from indicative of a person’s intelligence (obviously). I do have great respect for the tried and true professionals who have weathered many a storm and are true experts in their field. Actually, those are the professionals I look up to and do want to be involved with.
Not the fly by nights who are looking for a quick buck, with no depth, wealth of knowledge, etc…and will breeze on to the next get rich quick scheme at another’s expense.
As you said, it’s important to know what questions to ask. : )
You can insult Clot all you want, but realize that he is one of the few real estate agents that I respect.
He has been an incredibly valuable resource and contributor to this site.
jb
No one wants to deal with a buyers agent. Why do I want to sell my house at a good deal and pay an extra 3% on top of the discount. I will save that price for an exclusive through my agent at 1/2 commission as their is not other side to the MLSLI or cut off the whole realtor all together and cut my price and keep the 6%.
Last time I sold a house a few buyers agents came in on a FSBO and I told them they have to be at least 3% higher that the direct buyer as I was not going to eat the commission. I know the buyer agent covers a lot of deal but the whole point of accepting a low price is it is a cash, as is deal with no broker commission. You seem to want it both ways. You want to hit the seller for an extra commission and then have your buyers broker work him over for more concessions after your inpections finds little problems. It is like when I sell a car in my driveway. Last time I took the second highest bid, the higher bid wanted to take it to the mechanic and nickle and dime me back down the lower bid was as is no mechanic. Starting dealing with owners direct on your own.
LeeorS Says:
June 12th, 2007 at 2:07 pm
I’m getting frustrated with sellers who refuse to accept my bids at comp. I can’t believe my buyer’s agent has to convince the seller or seller’s agent to accept what the house is actually worth. It’s absurd. I think we’re still in the denial stage.
I can certainly see why the housing slump will continue, seller’s are reluctant to accept the market. When I bid at comps, what more can they expect? It seems it truly is a market where a majority are just fishing for offers hoping for the best.
U.S. Mortgage Defaults Rise 90 Percent in May, RealtyTrac Says
By Kathleen M. Howley
June 12 (Bloomberg) — U.S. foreclosure filings surged 90 percent in May as more homeowners fell behind on their monthly mortgage payments, RealtyTrac Inc. said.
==================
welcome to the downside…….
BOOOOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAAAAA
Bob
Lots and lots of million $ + Houses going to foreclosure.
Show & Tellers finally forced into reality.
Sinking ship….bail bail bail….abandon ship…
babababababababa
“I never met a broker that will sell you a stock that he KNOWS we’ll go down.”
Make,
How many stock/commodity brokers have you met?
I have met commodity brokers who pitch both sides of a trade. They may be pitching 100 new clients. They’ll tell 50 that they expect beans to rally and the other 50 that beans are ready for a sell off. They’ll have 50 satisfied clients, until they eventually get blown out.
Why the assumption that we’re all a bunch of slobbering morons who barely passed the GED? There are plenty of educated people within our ranks; you just have to look for them.
You are right. There are many well-educated professional agents out there. The problem is that the barriers to entry are too low. The field attracts too many too many jokers with nothing but $ signs in their eyes, a HS diploma and the willingness to take a 75-hour class.
One could imagine what it would be like if they dropped the requirement to become a doctor to one year of college level biology. It doesn’t mean you couldn’t find highly professional world class doctors out there, but you would have to wade through a sea of jokers to get there. The profession has a whole would lose all credibility.
This isn’t a reflection on the many professional agents out there, it just seems like it should be a little harder to become an agent. After all, this is the biggest financial transaction of most people lives. This would be beneficial to the ones that actually do a good job.
Also, I will second JB #117
LeeorS Says:
June 12th, 2007 at 2:07 pm
I’m getting frustrated with sellers who refuse to accept my bids at comp. I can’t believe my buyer’s agent has to convince the seller or seller’s agent to accept what the house is actually worth. It’s absurd. I think we’re still in the denial stage.
===================
Instead of crying about it go ahead pay over asking and be a bagholder. Maybe you will feel better losing your _ _ _ with all the other fools.
It takes a little effort. These negative equity homeowners have nothing to lose but bankruptcy now. wATCH’EM sink.
JB #117
We are not insulting clot specifically. It’s REA that we feel are not educated or trained to present themselves as experts or financial professionals they claim to be.
I agree with the fact that Clot has been great on this site and it’s nice that you give him a vote of confidence in these tough times.
I have dealt with and know personally a bunch of REA’s and they all claim to be nice guys and would never allow a client to purchase a home they know the client can’t afford.
Then who is doing it? It’s like porn, no one I know buys it but it’s a billion dollar industry.
Clot is a fantastic resource and has given very good detailed and fair answers re mine and others’ questions re going FSBO and RE broker + agent law in NJ.
LEAN TIMES ARE A COMING. Of course for the friskie eating bunch and the interest rate adjusted FBers it’s already here .
Welcome to lean times.
Why is it now so much in vogue to build bathrooms with a separate bathtub and shower stall?
If you take a bath, you’ll want to rinse off in the shower. Hopping from one to the other?
And what’s with those double sinks?
The average house now has multiple bathrooms.
The double sinks remind me of public ladies’ rooms.
#121 BC
#121 BC
#121 BC
good point.
“I’m getting frustrated with sellers who refuse to accept my bids at comp. I can’t believe my buyer’s agent has to convince the seller or seller’s agent to accept what the house is actually worth. It’s absurd. I think we’re still in the denial stage.”
Are you sure you are bidding at comp or are you putting in lowballs?
fye: FLASH: ABN Bank sees housing crash on a global scale, reports UK 50% overvalued, USA 25% overvalued
http://housingpanic.blogspot.com/
Oh dear god, this is going to end nasty.
You’ll never see this type of leverage, this type of credit stupidity and this type of insane worldwide asset overvaluation again in your lifetime.
Make,
One other point. I believe a large % of realtors really don’t have a clue regarding the state of the market. They don’t have their finger on the pulse of the market like most here. Many of them actually believe that you are getting a deal at 10% off 2005.
Here’s my perspective. As a seller, you’re going to give 6% up anyway. What do you care if two agents split it?
And ultimately, when you think about it, if you don’t have another offer higher than mine, and you want to hold out fine. But you can see in a downward market what the holding out does, and thats a whole not of nothing.
While I can understand your point about saving the 6% all for yourself, and FSBO’ing it, thats not what these people chose to do. If they are expecting full asking in a downward market, they are trying to live in a fairy tale world. No one is giving full asking. Additionally, the falling knife theory will catch up. Its impossible to avoid a) as mortgage rates go up, home prices have to come down to accomodate b) easy mortgages have gone the way of the do-do, c) taxes have crept up, d) I still get an 18% tax deduction for renting. Sounds like I’ll be renting until more reasonable people are selling. Like I said, most people seem to be fishing right now.
“I never met a broker that will sell you a stock that he KNOWS we’ll go down.”
heres one:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_E._Brennan
Un (109)-
I did say the following. Note, however, that it’s a statement of my own opinion, not some attempt to foist this off as fact:
“…yes, I’m with you on the thought that 95%+ of us are complete clowns.”
It’s a long way from personal opinion to statement of fact.
You do know there is a difference…don’t you?
make (112)-
But, hey…it’s not every kid out there that can swindle his own Dad.
Example of chasing the market down:
Ho-ho-kus
ACT BLAUVELT AVE $959,000 11/21/2006
PCH BLAUVELT AVE $929,000 1/8/2007
PCH BLAUVELT AVE $899,900 1/26/2007
PCH BLAUVELT AVE $889,900 2/22/2007
PCH BLAUVELT AVE $879,900 4/24/2007
PCH BLAUVELT AVE $869,000 5/2/2007
PCH BLAUVELT AVE $849,900 5/15/2007
EXT BLAUVELT AVE $849,900 5/21/2007
PCH BLAUVELT AVE $839,900 5/30/2007
PCH BLAUVELT AVE $799,900 6/12/2007
One other point. I believe a large % of realtors really don’t have a clue regarding the state of the market. They don’t have their finger on the pulse of the market like most here. Many of them actually believe that you are getting a deal at 10% off 2005.
My wife’s parents are going through a divorce and plan to sell their houses (primary residence & investment property owned for 15 years). They called a friend who is an agent to get an idea of how much they could expect to get for the primary residence (Bergen County). They told the agent that they were contemplating either selling both places now and splitting the money or my wife’s mother would take the primary residence and her father would get the investment property. She would continue to live in the primary residence for another 3 years until she retires.
The agent’s advice was to stay put. “In another 3 years it will be worth even more than it is today!” “You can sell it then and really make a lot of money!”
I do not like real estate agents. I have more respect for lawyers. They have to go to college/law school for 7 years and study day and night for the very difficult bar exam. I can get my RE license through Weichert in Fort Lee in 30 days.
I heard that there was a real estate tax refund for New Jersey Homeowners.
Does anyone know of a link for this?
Wicked [134],
I can still see the commercial; Emerging growth companies/come grow with us.
10y 5.25%
Wow.
jb
From MarketWatch:
China won’t dump Treasuries, Greenspan says
The good news: Investors shouldn’t worry about Chinese or other foreign investors dumping their holdings of U.S. Treasuries and other dollar assets, former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan told a mortgage securities industry group Tuesday, according to media reports. The bad news: They won’t sell because they won’t find many buyers. Greenspan also said the global liquidity glut of the past 15 years won’t last forever, so investors should enjoy it while lasts. Interest rates will rise once the liquidity dries up, he said. The rapid growth rate in the developing world, including China, likewise cannot be sustained. Interest rates could be heading higher in the short term, he said.
117
Please don’t think I’m insulting Clot…he is always full of wisdom, and I look forward to his posts…. I was responding to his post # 85, which I fully agree with!
I hope my post was not misinterpreted, it was not my intention by any means to insult Sir Clot!
Sorry I ment give up the 6%. If you want to sell best way is to take the lowest asking price in your neighborhood and subtract 6% and do an FSBO advertisement and try to stick close to your price. Then do gorilla open houses. Wait till the realtors with nearby houses who paid for advertising in the NY times or an expensive paper to have an open house and then put For sale ads out right in front of theirs at the lowest price and poach. If you think housing is falling this is the best course of action. The having to get 6% more is a killer but since you have less exposure on a FSBO you need to “leverage” the realtors ads to your own advantages.
LeeorS Says:
June 12th, 2007 at 2:46 pm
Here’s my perspective. As a seller, you’re going to give 6% up anyway. What do you care if two agents split it?
And ultimately, when you think about it, if you don’t have another offer higher than mine, and you want to hold out fine. But you can see in a downward market what the holding out does, and thats a whole not of nothing.
While I can understand your point about saving the 6% all for yourself, and FSBO’ing it, thats not what these people chose to do. If they are expecting full asking in a downward market, they are trying to live in a fairy tale world. No one is giving full asking. Additionally, the falling knife theory will catch up. Its impossible to avoid a) as mortgage rates go up, home prices have to come down to accomodate b) easy mortgages have gone the way of the do-do, c) taxes have crept up, d) I still get an 18% tax deduction for renting. Sounds like I’ll be renting until more reasonable people are selling. Like I said, most people seem to be fishing right now.
Clot #137
That’s a classic.
Sassy (144)-
No offense taken.
JB #114
I wish Sir Richard was here with his detailed explanation of why and how.
From Bloomberg:
Treasury Yields Rise to Highest in Five Years on Growth Concern
Yields on benchmark 10-year Treasuries rose to the highest in five years as signs of accelerating global growth raised concern central banks will increase borrowing costs.
Bond prices slumped after reports in China and Japan showed consumer and producer prices rising, while the head of the U.K. central bank signaled borrowing costs may need to rise to keep inflation from accelerating. The Treasury sold $8 billion in 10- year notes at higher-than-forecast yields.
“I was thinking the market had gotten cheap enough at these levels that some buying would come in,” said Ray Remy, head of fixed income at Daiwa Securities America Inc. in New York, one of 21 primary dealers obligated to bid at Treasury auctions. “That hasn’t happened. The market is under pressure and will probably remain under pressure ’til Friday” when the consumer price index for May is released.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year note reached 5.272 percent, before falling to 5.26 percent, an increase of 10 basis points, or 0.10 percentage point, at 3:14 p.m. in New York, according to bond broker Cantor Fitzgerald LP. The price of the 4 1/2 percent note due May 2017 fell 22/32, or $6.88 per $1,000 face amount, to 94 6/32. Bond yields move inversely to prices. The yield on two-year notes rose 5 basis points to 5.07 percent.
re 133, 118.
118, please explain your point further. as 133 was saying, if you’re going through an agent, how would it be to your advantage to reject the offer from the buyer with their own agent? i thought in that case your listing agent would pocket the 6%. so it would seem as the seller you are paying out 6% either way. in which case, what does it matter. obviously it’s different if you’re talking fsbo, but i’m referring to a sale through an agent. just curious. want to make sure there’s not something i’m missing vis a vis advantages, disadvantages of working with an agent as a buyer.
thanks.
Anyone who has put in the sacrifice of years of sweat and studying (and eating ramen) to become a lawyer, doctor, CPA/CFA, etc is credible. Within them, you need to differentiate a bit since there are a few incompetent folks within them.
Would you trust your money to a fund manager who has never navigated a bear market? Why would you trust a RE agent to tell you that today is the right time to buy, when they’ve been in RE scene only since 2001?
In RE, the proportion of bungling buffoons is closer to 90-95% due to absolutely no educational standards and a ‘get rich quick’ payoff mentality among these agents. The 5% or so who are good have been in the business a very long time, and know what it takes to survive a down market and deliver the goods to their clients. Experience matters. Clot no doubt belongs to the latter camp, and I have no doubt a lot of us on this blog have learnt a great deal from him.
Constructive criticism makes for healthy debate, but getting hostile serves no purpose.
>>No one wants to touch any debt of ours with a longer maturity than the life of a fruit fly…and that’s NOT weakness?
and you’re getting this from where? so we didn’t have a strong auction today but it wasn’t weak either. the market knee jerk of late is overblown and it’s also options expiration week so there’s a bunch of noise right now. let this play out over a couple of weeks and see where we drift.
Polish jokes?
I never paid any attention. Until one night, I was watching TV with my mother, and someone on a talk show made one, and she averted her face and winced.
Amazing, how people who wouldn’t dare utter racial or ethnic slurs about other groups still think it’s OK to make Polish jokes.
I was too stupid to pass the written driver’s test at the DMV so I will get my NJRE license instead. YEAH!!!
#152 well said except for the clot comment. most agents should are barely qualified to be a soda jerk.
I only have respect for the high end agents, like those at Christies and Sotheby’s. They work harder than your average agent and regularly deal with rich people who can often be a pain in the butt.
5.25
talk about adding fuel to the fire
are we in full scale RE crash mode now?
Donald Says:
June 12th, 2007 at 12:49 pm
I like how everyone is avoiding mentioning the article about RealtyTrac on the home page. Sorry it supports my agenda and not yours.
Countrywide said pending foreclosures as a percentage of unpaid principal balances rose to 0.90 percent from 0.45 percent a year earlier, and 0.85 percent in April.
This is Countrywide’s internal figures, not Realtytrack. Countrywide is the largest mortgage lender in the country
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/070612/countrywide_mortgages.html?.v=5
And the beat goes on….
http://www.cnbc.com/id/19190820
“are we in full scale RE crash mode now?”
No, not even close.
#160
I like how you avoided mentioning the headline of the article:
Countrywide’s May loans up 15 pct, adds 1,329 jobs
Not bad for a RE slump, huh?
#153 Richard We will be left with an environemnt of higher interest rates, this did not just happen over night, (although it appears that way).
These forces have been building for the last couple of years, and are finally manifesting themselves now.
My disagreement with you Richard (other than Westfield is bubble proof) is as I have said before, when the news is good your take is that is now it should be.
When the news is negative, your belief is that it is overblown and noise, and knee jerk reactions.
#163
I like how you avoided mentioning the following paragraph in the article:
Countrywide has long said it expects to add market share as the U.S. housing slowdown and rising defaults cause weaker rivals to fold or reduce risk. It has boosted staffing 8 percent this year.
I thought this was interesting.
http://www.pe.com/localnews/inland/stories/PE_News_Local_S_rally20.9e7f42.html
We are not crashing, [prices]. However, we are on the cusp of the biggest RE bust of our lifetime. The perfect storm is brewing. This one will make the early 1990’s seem like a walk in the park.
“are we in full scale RE crash mode now?”
No. Not yet.
Countrywide’s May loans up 15 pct, adds 1,329 jobs
Not bad for a RE slump, huh?
Reuters: “Countrywide has long said it expects to add market share as the U.S. housing slowdown and rising defaults cause weaker rivals to fold or reduce risk.”
As other lenders either go out of business or stop writing as many risk mortages, Countrywide picks up market share. This is consolodation in a weak market, definitly not a sign the market is picking up steam.
3153 dream True I have learned a lot from Clot, and find the fact that he in the real estate trenches every day, invalueable for us.
It is the reason I stopped bashing realtors on this site. Since he comes on thsi site and offers information and insight into the market, it owuld be rude and ignorant to bash what he does for a living..
Now do not get me wrong, I for the most part despise realtors, and I have never yet met one who was honest, never mind one who had a clue.
But I have to keep in mind there is at least one out there, and out of respect for how he conducts his own business, I refrain from bashing realtors.
The same goes for KL.
#168 rent And there increase in business came mostly from refi’s not new money.
“Not bad for a RE slump, huh?”
Huh?
http://ml-implode.com/
#124 MM: Real estate attorney’s typically do not comment on the financing that the buyer uses. Their focus is on the lagal aspects/requirements of the transaction, not the financing mechanism.
>>These forces have been building for the last couple of years, and are finally manifesting themselves now.
don’t fall for the head fake.
Reech (156)-
You are, however, well-qualified to be a typical, garden-variety jerk.
“At a minimum it will slow any recovery,” said Nicolas P. Retsinas, director of Harvard’s Joint Center for Housing Studies, which issued the report. “Add to that the overbuilding and the inventory correction and you can see why it appears, particularly for the new-home market, that this slump will last well into 2008.”
I thought they already said we hit bottom. HA HA what a joke
In 2008 they will say the impact of all these resets has caused more foreclosures then we expected and the market looks like a recovery will come sometime in 2009.
In 2009 they will say looks like the market is recovering from the massive foreclosures in 2008 and apartment rents are doing great from all the foreclosed and evicted previous home owners.
In 2010 they will say the housing inventory being sold at auctions seems to have little interested but the recovery upside looks great.
In 2011 they will say taking advantage of the new foreign investor program initiated by the president foreigners find it very attractive to receive a investment visa and a path to citizenship for purchasing a home from the newly formed government corporation disposing of the foreclosed inventory.
>>We are not crashing, [prices]. However, we are on the cusp of the biggest RE bust of our lifetime. The perfect storm is brewing. This one will make the early 1990’s seem like a walk in the park.
yawn. been hearing that since 2001.
Actually the Realtor that sold us our first house was honest.
One of the first things he explained to us was the inverse relationship between interest rates and home prices.
Paying attention Donald? These credit cycles take a long time to play out… I don’t think we will be seeing the rates of the last year or two for a long time.
nice comment clot. such class. you’ve just exposed yourself. and one would hire you to represent them because???
#177 Richard: I do not recall hearing that in 01, it was more like the end of 03.
The housing boom did not take off in earnest until the Fed dropped rates massively, which was after 911.
#174 No head fake Richard, I have lived through down markets,as opposed to yourself; they are the best educator of all.
Is it true that NJ is now taxing people who sell their property and then leaving the state?
“yawn. been hearing that since 2001.
Richard,
Exactly who has been calling for a bust since 2001? Simply an asinine [yet,typical] statement.
#182 There is the realty transfer tax when you sell, and I believe I do nto rememebr the %, but it is a nice chunk of change.
Someone in the last week or two asked to be awakened when the 10-Yr hit 5.25%.
Well, today’s your wake up call. That didn’t take long.
I think when the dust clears on this spring selling season in a few more weeks, we’ll find ourselves standing on a precipice suffering from vertigo.
Without putting too fine a point on it, I have no problem with anyone who sees fit to vent at bad RE agents (I do it a lot myself). God knows, there’s enough of them out there, and they swindle folks like you and make life miserable for people like me who have to interact with them.
However, it’s a big leap from venting on a subset of our genus to blanket indictment of the whole business. I think the vast majority who post here are mindful of the difference, and that’s all anyone in my shoes can reasonably ask.
Not surprisingly, the troll element here seems to delight in the juvenile (not to mention jingoistic and self-righteous) thrashing of anyone- in any position- within the RE industry. The sad part of this is that these people are so tone-deaf to their own message, they can’t perceive what a bunch of rubes these comments make them appear to be. The confusion of the individual with the group has always been the province of the lackey and the simpleton.
The same goes for KL.
….and you too JB. Any REA who can maintain a site of this quality has my vote
;)
#182
that sounds a bit suspect on a constitutional level. may violate right to travel (14th Amend) and dormant commerce clause (Art I)
3b [184],
REALTY TRANSFER FEES IMPOSED ON SELLER, TOTAL CONSIDERATION IN EXCESS OF $350,000
http://www.state.nj.us/treasury/taxation/pdf/lpt/feeschedover350.pdf
1. $2.90/$500 of consideration not in excess of $150,000;
2. $4.25/$500 of consideration in excess of $150,000 but not in excess of $200,000;
3. $4.80/$500 of consideration in excess of $200,000 but not in excess of $550,000;
4. $5.30/$500 of consideration in excess of $550,000 but not in excess of $850,000;
5. $5.80/$500 of consideration in excess of $850,000 but not in excess of $1,000,000;
6. $6.05/$500 of consideration in excess of $1,000,000.
Reech (179)-
Want me to lay down and play dead for you? Not on your life. Keep it coming, bagholder.
is the transfer tax limited to those who leave the state?
#186 Clot Simpleton> That word belongs to BC and myself, but feel free to use it, as it says so much.
#192 No.
60: All that tells me, Don, is that your relatives are lousy doctors.
“is the transfer tax limited to those who leave the state?”
The State of NJ does not discriminate. Everybody, if they can sell, gets hit with it.
Remember to add this to your final closing costs.
Let’s say you have a house for sale and the list price is 869K. Since the 10 year moved from 4.6 to 5.25 in the last month, monthly mortgage jumped from 5100 to 5500. Assumed 10% down.
http://bp3.blogger.com/_pMscxxELHEg/Rm6rojHBxAI/AAAAAAAAAlg/3QMAZmQed80/s1600-h/30+year+vs+TNX.jpg
James Bednar Says:
June 12th, 2007 at 2:20 pm
PLEASE insult grim all you want, AND realize that he is one of the few real estate agents that I know.
chi
Clot,
Re: Post 109 -Unrealtor, I was holding my breath to see who’s post was coming back, glad it was yours, I knew you could comeback.
JB,
Re: your post 117, Hellooooooo
KL
Re: taxes/moving.
If I understand your question(s) correctly, sellers do pay all kinds of taxes for selling and moving anywhere. There’s the transfer tax (as mentioned in #189), which is probably paid at closing, and then there would be state income tax on the sale and your residence in the state at the time of the sale. Neither of these things are NJ phenomena; they’re just as true in NY (and probably most states).
skep-tic Says:
June 12th, 2007 at 3:50 pm
5.25
talk about adding fuel to the fire
are we in full scale RE crash mode now?
skep: believe it or not, I think the number is more like 5.50%…..it leads to something closer to a 7-handle on a 30YF
Just bear in mind that we were roughly here 12 months ago, and it went back to 4.50%. I was champing at the bit to watch a bunch of ARMs blow-up on people, and instead we were given a reprieve. Imagine we blew through 5.50 a year ago…..
Does anyone other than me think that we are on the verge of a MASSIVE drop in prices in RE prices with rates skyrocketing??
#200 chgo: True, But much has changed since then, especially the psychology,and remember all the talk then too was when would the Fed ease;that talk is dead, period.
And of course the dead spring amrket, and the huge inventory, like I said much has changed.
Credit tightening is happening globally unlike last year. I expect things to stick this time.
well, it just seems like the mortgage market is getting hit from all sides. rates higher. tighter standards. rising defaults. lawsuits. bankruptcies.
this has all unfolded in the past 3 months and is just beginning to be reflected in sales
ooofffffffffff!
3-Month 4.72
2-Year 5.10
10-Year 5.30
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=amc.jq4ckouo&refer=home
`Cannot Continue’
“What we’re now beginning to see, is affluence spread throughout what we used to call the third world and consumption is beginning” to increase, Greenspan said. “You cannot continue this rate of growth in China and the third world” without more direct investment in assets that increase productivity.
As China and other developing economies do that “all of a sudden interest rates go back up” as they buy fewer Treasuries and invest more in their infrastructure, Greenspan said.
Does everyone suscribe to the domino theory that high rates kill starter home people who put nothing down so current starter home sellers can’t move up to mid tier and then mid tier can’t move up to luxery. Most high end people are selling houses bought before 2001 and had a few big chunks of bonus payments to put down on their house so rates should not matter much. Or is it that rich neighborhoods are just a mirage of people in debt trying to look rich? Cause back in the day only doctors, lawyers and traders lived in those neighborhoods and only took mortgages out for tax reasons not because they had to. It today minimansion person just a 5% wannabe, how sad.
chicagofinance Says:
June 12th, 2007 at 5:26 pm
ooofffffffffff!
3-Month 4.72
2-Year 5.10
10-Year 5.30
#208
I think many people with good jobs / high income have been living beyond their means– the same as everyone else.
I think we’d all agree that $300,000 is pretty good income, but in many areas, this buys you basically a starter home if you stick to traditionally affordability measures. And yet, until recently, these homes were flying off the shelves.
FYI– $348,000 is the top 1% of all tax filers
I don’t know where else to post this message so here goes…
I’m a potential FTHB (first time home buyer) and my wife and I have spotted a house in NJ that we’d consider making a bid on. We contacted the listing agent directly and the listing agent gave my wife a tour of the home today.
Question: Can anyone advise as to whether I need to find a buyer’s agent now if I want to make a bid? Do I lose out if I just work with the listing agent?
I appreciate anyone’s thoughtful advice. Thanks in advance
From Chi [206],
The bond market hasn’t seen the end of the shakeout because “it hasn’t been a quality issue,” Stapley said. The signal may come should rising volatility upend “one of the major M&A deals that are out there.”
skep-tic Says:
June 12th, 2007 at 5:39 pm
FYI– $348,000 is the top 1% of all tax filers
Care to quote that stat for NNJ & Central Jersey without Sussex County?
John is partially correct. If people cannot sell their low end homes, they can’t move up to a larger home. I have seen this problem first hand on multiple occassions. This is why I have chosen not to lower the price anymore because dropping the price won’t get someone to buy my house if their house cannot sell. Starter homes are different because most buyers of these homes come from rental apartments. No home to sell. Upper end homes get hit harder, especially those that are over $1 million.
“Let’s say you have a house for sale and the list price is 869K.”
Now how did you arrive at that figure? HMMMMMMM, who do we know that has a house listed for $869k? :-)
chicago,
that 1% stat is national. I don’t know the local numbers, but I am sure that top 1% in NNJ is much richer
“Does anyone other than me think that we are on the verge of a MASSIVE drop in prices in RE prices with rates skyrocketing??”
No, it is just you. Rates are not “skyrocketing.” Going up? Yes. But we are very far away from double digits.
Mr. Duck: 75 basis points is a shload
John [208],
The whole chain is/becomes busted. You can’t eliminate the first few steps of the ladder without compromising the function of that ladder. Consequently, all steps of the ladder will be lowered.
working from the national number, however..
if there are roughly 300m people in the U.S., then there are roughly 3m people making $350k or more (much less of course if you back out dependents)
but even if we stay with this high 3m assumption, the question is what percent of this group lives in the NY metro area? 20%? 30%?
Seems to me that it’s impossible that there are more than 1m taxpayers in the NY metro region making above $350k
if the total population of metro NYC is 20m, then I’d guess that $350k is still the 95th percentile in terms of income
3b (192)-
It’s a little word that says so much. Thanks.
219 –
I think it’s not 1% of entire population…more like 1% of total tax fillings?
BC (218)-
Plankton Theory is ALWAYS applicable.
Donald (216)-
Not that I can bust thru your veneer of denial…but there are seasoned mortgage guys out there now with scads of PO’d clients, because rates went up so fast and so violently last week, there was no time to lock.
The few mortgage guys I know who did lock on Monday/Tuesday did it because the bond drop coming out of the gate on Monday AM was the most extreme they’d ever seen, so they just hunched that something was different this time and pulled the trigger.
The transfer tax your refering to is the Realty transfer fee,It is not called a sales tax because it is not paid by the buyer and we all know that in NJ, food, clothing and shelter is not taxable! hah! the figures BC has posted pertain to that “Realty Transfer Fee”, however there is an additional tax if you are leaving the state.
KL
#224 rhymingrealtor Says:
“however there is an additional tax if you are leaving the state.”
Can someone explain further how this works? What if you sell and remain in NJ for a period of time before moving? Do most people just pay or try to avoid at all costs?
Rachel
yes, that 1% figure is for all fed tax filings
Clotpoll,
You have already lost most of your credibility here. Just ask the other posters. That is really bad when you lose your credibility faster than I do.
chicagofinance Says:
June 12th, 2007 at 6:02 pm
“Mr. Duck: 75 basis points is a shload”
Let’s put it into context; proportionate to amount of slop your dog leaves for you on your marble floor.
“Why is it now so much in vogue to build bathrooms with a separate bathtub and shower stall?
If you take a bath, you’ll want to rinse off in the shower. Hopping from one to the other?
And what’s with those double sinks?
The average house now has multiple bathrooms.
The double sinks remind me of public ladies’ rooms.”
Wow, you do not know a single thing about current luxury living trends. I know… multiple bathrooms. What are they thinking? Isn’t a family of 5 supposed to share the same bathroom? Keep renting that 5th floor walk up in Union City.
“That is really bad when you lose your credibility faster than I do.”
Assuming that any credibility was ever established.
rhyming–#224:
“however there is an additional tax if you are leaving the state.”
Can you give me a link or the name of this tax? I’m trying to locate it by googling, but it’s not working. I’m kind of horrified if this is the case…have never heard of anything like this.
Question for the board:
With all the planets aligned correctly, ie: mortgage rates rising, inventory rising, home prices coming down…when would you think is a good time to jump in? We have no children who need to start school. Mortgage rates not scary…down payment pretty sizable so we don’t have to catch the rates.
Anyone??
I don’t think you are really going to save that much by waiting. Massive price drops are not going to happen anytime soon. So, with that in mind, I would buy now.
If you want more negotiating power, you should start looking now, but don’t put in an offer until after Labor Day since this is when the home selling season begins to shut down for the year.
…when would you think is a good time to jump in?
If you are in a hurry, you might try looking for a good deal late fall or winter, otherwise late 2008…
What’s the obsession with Union City? I see that as a common reference in your post Donnie boy.
Anyone have any thoughts re: #211?
Thanks!
Lots of sellers take their homes off the market in the winter so you will have less inventory.
U.S. Mortgage Foreclosure Filings Rise 90% in May
By Kathleen M. Howley
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aVVr0Jrm19OE&refer=news
June 12 (Bloomberg) — U.S. foreclosure filings surged 90 percent in May from a year earlier as more homeowners fell behind on their monthly mortgage payments, RealtyTrac Inc. said.
There were 176,137 notices of default, scheduled auctions and bank repossessions last month, led by California, Florida and Ohio, the Irvine, California-based seller of foreclosure data said in a report today. The median price for a U.S. home slid 1.8 percent the first three months of 2007 as the housing slump entered its second year, according to the National Association of Realtors. The filings rose 19 percent from April.
A jump in foreclosures at a time of year that traditionally is the busiest for home sales means the slide in prices probably isn’t over, said James Saccacio, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac. Typically, more than half of all home sales occur in the April to June period, according to Freddie Mac, the No. 2 mortgage buyer.
“Such strong activity in the midst of the typical spring buying season could foreshadow even higher foreclosure levels later in the year,” Saccacio said in the report. That will add “to the downward pressure on home prices in many areas.”
Ranked by the number of foreclosure filings, California topped the list, with 39,659 in May, and Florida was No. 2, with 21,704. Ohio was No. 3 for the third consecutive month. It had 13,214 filings, said the report. Rather than count the number of unique households in foreclosure, the study counts the number of foreclosure-related legal filings, which could result in some properties being double- or triple-counted.
Nevada, Colorado
Taking into account the number of homes, Nevada was the No. 1 state, with one filing for every 166 households. Colorado was second, with one filing for every 290 households, followed by California, Florida, Ohio, and Arizona.
Michigan ranked No. 8, with one foreclosure filing for every 448 households, Connecticut was No. 10 and Massachusetts was No. 11.
New Jersey was in the No. 15 slot, with one foreclosure filing for every 843 households, and New York ranked No. 30, with one foreclosure filing for every 1,818 households.
In the report, 43 regions reported an increase in foreclosure filings from a year ago, including the District of Columbia, and eight states had a decline.
Oregon saw a 50 percent drop from last year, the biggest decline in the study, followed by New Mexico, down 39 percent, Oklahoma, declining 34 percent and Texas, down 33 percent.
RealtyTrac, started in 1996, sells subscriptions at $49.95 a month for access to an online database of foreclosed properties. The company began issuing market reports in January 2005.
“RealtyTrac Inc. said.”
You do know that Realty Trac’s numbers are flawed? They are counting the same houses two and three times.
#233 Ah grasshopper, so young so silly, so foolish. You will learn;they all learn in the end.
I predict an additional 500 bases points to the current interest rate.
Lots of sellers take their homes off the market in the winter so you will have less inventory.
But the ones that remain really want to sell.
RealtyTrac, started in 1996, sells subscriptions at $49.95 a month for access to an online database of foreclosed properties. The company began issuing market reports in January 2005.
Donald Says:
June 12th, 2007 at 8:27 pm
You do know that Realty Trac’s numbers are flawed? They are counting the same houses two and three times.
And the market reports for 2005 and 2006 were “wrong” as the houses were counted two and three times.
BUT since they have been using the same metod for the past 3 years it still shows an unprejudiced increase in the number of homes entering the foreclourse process.
#242 that response was obnoxious.
Do not feed the troll.
Promise me that tomorrow, you will not feed the troll.
Resist the urge …
Good night, and good luck.
Peacenow & Rachael
Re: Moving out of state tax, last Thursday was the first I had heard of it, this seller had already moved out of state prior to this closing, I was not at the “sale” closing I was at the “buy” the following day, I accepted what was told to me, after all I have lived in NJ all my life and it seemed so apropos. I will pull that Hud and find out what it was called.
KL
Peace Now #232
Try searching NJ Seller’s Residency Certification.
Rachel
“Regional economists say it is typical for prices to remain stubbornly high well after sales decline, marking the beginning of a down cycle. Ed Leamer, director of the closely followed UCLA Anderson Forecast, said in an interview last week that the 1990s trend was a classic example. Los Angeles-area sales totals fell by half from November 1988 to March 1991, while home prices continued to rise until June 1992, when prices began a long decline.”
“‘The most dramatic price declines come at the end, not at the start,’ said Robert Campbell, an independent San Diego economist. ‘That’s when the panic sets in.’”
http://www.nctimes.com/articles/2007/06/12/news/top_stories/1_03_086_11_07.txt
I know several weeks back some of you got a kick out of the “best town ever” posting on craigslist. Looks like this Westifeld home is finally pending sale after almost 1.5 years, 4 price cuts and three agencies. I can’t find the MLS (#2406468) on realtor.com but the century 21 website has it. Curious about the sales price. The original listing price was over $500,000 but they came down to $420,0000.
Donald (239)-
“Lots of sellers take their homes off the market in the winter so you will have less inventory.”
Put this one in your own Top 10, Donnie.
I always thought the goal of being a seller was to actually accomplish a sale, so that your home exits the market by being posted as “closed”.
Clot,
Refer to No. 247, please.
Donaldo (228)-
Was your current listing agent the same person who suggested you buy this house in which you’re now hopelessly upside-down?
Whoever gave you that precious piece of dime-store advice is the one whose credibility is shot.
Or, did you make that purchase decision all on your own?
Clot,
Do not be baited … do not feed the troll.
Ad (233)-
Look at your occupancy horizon. Anything less than 5 years? Either have a good bargain in hand now, or wait for your top choice homes to come down further.
Staying for more than 5 years? If your top choice homes are well within your range of affordability, negotiate as hard as you can (which should be a lot), beat that price down some more and good luck to you.
scribe (255)-
Thanks. I may have to take a couple of days off from here. Should be easy to do: end of school, sports championships, graduation (since when does getting out of 8th grade merit a ceremony?) and about 1,000 family gatherings should provide a welcome respite from troll-jousting. I really should seek help for this compulsion to respond. I’m scaring myself (not really…it’s all in good fun).
Perhaps while I’m gone, Donald will get hit by a bus.
That was uncalled for Clot. If you want to get nasty, I hope you die in a head on collission.
If you would stop being ignorant for one second Clot, you would know that sellers take their home off the market in the winter because the spring gives them higher prices. Last winter I left my house on the market, but I will not be doing the same thing next time around.
The only thing that goes higher in Spring is inventory.
Rachel–#249–thanks for the tip. Have read the forms and instructions, but this is not a special tax on NJ sellers who are moving out of state. This is how NJ collects its capital gains/income tax due on sellers who own property in NJ but don’t live here. In thinking about this, I can’t imagine that there could possibly be a tax for moving out of state. And besides, we would’ve heard about it on this board already…from all those folks who’ve moved to NC.
Clot,
Perhaps grim will scratch that itch tomorrow.
Let’s hope.
Confused FTHB #211
You don’t need a buyer’s agent. In fact, you might be better off without one. Good luck.
the 1990s trend was a classic example. Los Angeles-area sales totals fell by half from November 1988 to March 1991, while home prices continued to rise until June 1992, when prices began a long decline.”
“‘The most dramatic price declines come at the end, not at the start,’ said Robert Campbell, an independent San Diego economist. ‘That’s when the panic sets in.’”
The pattern around here was a little different in the late 80’s/early 90’s. We saw up-front reductions followed by a long “grind”, where prices were flat (eroded by inflation).
There were 2 big differences in the early 90’s though:
1) Interest rates were falling during the “bust”, which helped cushion the fall and help bring back affordability without actually dropping prices. This also gave distressed borrowers a better opportunity to refinance.
2) Today, we have much more in the way of exotic mortgages and no down payment loans. Many owners will not have be able to weather the downturn.
Cliffhanger and a number of the prospective buyers here seem to support Clot’s view that the basis of RE is emotion. Such expressions as ‘stuck with a house that won’t sell’ and ‘frustrated that prices are still high’ evidence this.
Both show anger that the world is not operating in a way that satisfies their desires, betraying a childlike, wishful view of reality.
Be grateful that these people exist. They provide so much income for the rest of us. Just try not to be around when they explode.
348K income is still a boatload for NJ, below are the income stats for Alpine, NJ and the average person there makes 200K less than 348K.
Median Household Income: $130,740
State Average: $55,146 Low High
Median Family Income: $134,068
State Average: $65,370 Low High
Per-Capita Income: $76,995
State Average: $27,006 Low High
Median Value of Owner-Occupied Housing Units: $1,000,001
State Average: $170,800 Low High
Median Price Asked for Housing Units: $1,000,001
State Average: $128,000
Lol bunch of clowns, if i was there I would of thrown rotten eggs at em
Well since realtors only have a GED or HS degree it is good they are brushing up on grilling burgers and running kids parties cause that is going to be their next job until RE comes back sometime around 2011.
RentinginNJ Says:
June 12th, 2007 at 9:57 am
Weichert Headquarters in Morris Plains has agents on the corner this morning dressed up in Open House Sign costumes.
A few weeks ago an independent agency in Clifton held an “open house” of their own. They had a big tent, popcorn machine, clowns, were cooking hamburgers & hot dogs on the grill and had one of those bouncy castle things for the kids.
This was on a Saturday afternoon in the spring. Too years ago on a Saturday in the spring, a Realtor® wouldn’t give you the time of day unless you were selling a home or were prepared to make an offer on something. Now, they are cooking hot dogs & wearing costumes. Times have changed.
>>> Bloomberg: Regulators Kept Quiet as Subprime Lenders `Targeted’ Minorities
By Craig Torres
June 13 (Bloomberg) — The U.S. agencies that supervise more than 8,000 banks haven’t censured any of them for violating fair-lending laws, three years after Federal Reserve researchers began assembling data showing blacks and Hispanics are more likely than whites to be saddled with high-priced home loans.
Minorities stand to be hardest hit by rising delinquencies and foreclosures in subprime loans. While Census Bureau data show that homeownership rates rose to records among blacks in 2004 and among Hispanics in 2005, they still trail whites by 25 percentage points, and the gap may widen in the current bust.
“Black people and Hispanics have been targeted,” said Alphonso Jackson, secretary of Housing and Urban Development, whose department is hiring to expand its own probe of discriminatory lending.
“Low and moderate-income people get one shot at home ownership,” Jackson said in an interview in Washington. “And if they don’t make it work, they don’t get a second shot.”
Subprime loans — those made at higher interest rates to people whom banks consider risky or who have sketchy credit histories — accounted for more than half of the home foreclosures in the fourth quarter of last year. The Fed’s review, conducted by economists from its research and statistics division, covered lending data from 2004 and 2005, the first two years of expanded disclosure requirements for banks and the final two years of Alan Greenspan’s tenure as chairman.
Closer Scrutiny
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=a6F6StSPKNig&refer=news