Preliminary June sales and inventory data for Northern New Jersey is in..
The first graph plots the unadjusted sales data (closed sales) for the counties listed. Please note the lower bound of the graph, it is set to 1000, not to zero. I do this to emphasize the seasonal nature of the Northern NJ market.
(click to enlarge)
The second graph is another view at the sales data for the full year. Please note that this graph does cross at zero.
(click to enlarge)
The third graph displays only June sales, 2001 to 2007 YOY.
(click to enlarge)
The fourth graph displays an overlay of Sales and Inventory from 2003 to 2007.
(click to enlarge)
The last graph, new this month, displays the year over year change in inventory on a monthly basis.
(click to enlarge)
Contracts Dataset:
https://njrereport.com/files/contracts.xls
Sales/Inventory Dataset:
https://njrereport.com/files/salesinvoverlay.xls (large file warning)
jb
Wow, a 27% drope in sales from 2005. Housing recession in full effect!
Why are the asking prices still so ridiculous?
June sales are way below 2003 and 2004. 2007 is making 2006 look like good times! My take is that NYC will start to feel the slow down in full force next year (2008).
it’s important to look at data pre-2001 to see where it fits historically. clearly with your limited data set the comparison looks ugly. on a positive note (for the industry) the inventory pace has slowed dramatically which is what you need to get more equilibrium. where prices go? there’s no tried and true formula for predicting that.
>>My take is that NYC will start to feel the slow down in full force next year (2008).
i’m believing more and more NYC is different and largely immune to the overall effects.
Why are the asking prices still so ridiculous?
The prices are coming down very slowly. I have been watching them for a while now. The price drops should start to accelerate after the summer as June will be but a preview of the next 18 to 24 months.
it’s important to look at data pre-2001 to see where it fits historically.
Yawn…
If I did the legwork to build a dataset back to 1995, you’d complain that we need to look back to 1990. If I pulled back until 1990, you’d claim that the 1980’s are key to understanding the data.
Ultimately, you wouldn’t be satisfied until I posted enough historic data so that you could equate the 2007 sales pace to some random point in history that you were sure represented a “normal market”.
It’s all too easy too pooh-pooh the data from an armchair.
You’ve got my email, I’ll post the historic dataset as soon as you can provide it.
jb
James,
I have been a lurker on this site for the last 9 months. It rocks! Also very informative…
Keep up the good work!
“where prices go? there’s no tried and true formula for predicting that.”
That’s true. We are in unchartered waters. We have never experienced a mania in RE of this magnitude until this one. That said, there has not been one bubble in the history of the markets that has not ended in a bust. Maybe some will argue that this was not a bubble. Hope you can keep a straight face while trying to debate your point. When a market that historically appreciates at/near the rate of inflation suddenly trades like cattle in the midst of Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy, guess what? It’s a bubble. Where prices go? True nobody knows. My question? How bad, decline and duration.
Just for kicks, let’s look at Bergen on NJMLS as a proxy..
June Sales
Bergen – NJMLS
SFH – Condo/Coop/Twnh
1988 – 840 (peak)
1989 – 655
1990 – 625 (down 25% from peak, 2 yr)
1991 – 840
1992 – 848
1993 – 828
1994 – 904
1995 – 821
1996 – 827
1997 – 886
1998 – 1,090
1999 – 1,112
2000 – 1,025
2001 – 929
2002 – 933
2003 – 929
2004 – 1,181
2005 – 1,186 (peak)
2006 – 930
2007 – 885 (down 25% from peak, 2 yr)
Date – Average Price – Median Price
1988 – $277,540 – $227,000
1990 – $267,437 – $217,500
Only minor price declines were seen over the period of greatest declines in sales volume during the last bubble burst. It wasn’t until the following years, where sales volumes were flat, that prices declined.
1993 – $259,171 – $212,000
1994 – $252,701 – $215,000
1995 – $243,738 – $199,900
Over a 7 year period nominal prices fell approximately 12%. Real prices (adjusted for inflation) fell 30% over this period.
jb
Just an observation. I’ve been looking at houses in BC since Dec 06 and I’m noticing far fewer listings in the 7-9 range. In december, there were many more houses on the market and we’ve been a little caught by surprise at how little inventory there is. However, the houses that do come on are still overpriced and sit for many days until the seller gets real and drops his price. I’m also noticing that there is very little buyer traffic at open houses. I went to one recently and I was the only one who showed up and the open house was just about over. To boot, the realtor told us that they had a couple that was very interested (aka BS).
The drop in inventory does pose a good question. If inventory or supply starts coming down, what happens to housing prices? The graph above shows the pace of inventory starting to come down.
Real Estate agent commits suicide:
http://hoboken411.com/?p=7318&cp=1#comments
it is interesting to see the juxtaposition of the drop in sales with drop in rate of new inventory creation… wonder whether there is pent up supply waiting for the rebound the realtors/economists keep promising is just around the corner
interesting if it was pent up supply rather than demand like most in the industry seem to assume.
JB– hats off to you posting this data. This site is easily the best of its kind
Richard Says:
July 12th, 2007 at 9:49 pm
>>My take is that NYC will start to feel the slow down in full force next year (2008).
i’m believing more and more NYC is different and largely immune to the overall effects.
Reech: i’m believing more and more that you are different and largely immune to the overall effects of logic.
Just taking a gander through areas of interest.
It is amazing how many houses are standing empty in the areas I am looking at, in all price ranges.
And a lot with brand new kitchens, or the whole house newly renovated within the last year or so.
From MarketWatch:
U.S. housing chief urges China to buy more mortgage-backed securities
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development Secretary Alphonso Jackson Friday encouraged China to increase its investments in mortgage-backed securities in the U.S., especially Ginnie Mae securities, which are fully backed by the U.S. government.
“Mortgage-backed securities yield a higher rate of return than a traditional U.S. Treasury bond with (the) same credit risk,” Jackson said.
The Government National Mortgage Association, or Ginnie Mae, is a U.S. government-owned corporation within the Department of Housing and Urban Development. It issues mortgage-backed securities that are fully backed by the U.S. Treasury.
China is seeking to earn a higher return on its massive foreign exchange reserves, which reached US$1.33 trillion at the end of June. Beijing is in the process of creating an agency that will invest US$200 billion of those reserves in higher-yielding assets overseas.
So far, China has invested its reserves mainly in U.S. Treasury bonds, and that has helped to keep down U.S. interest rates, making housing and other loans more affordable.
According to U.S. housing department figures, Chinese investors held less than US$3 billion in U.S. mortgage-backed securities in June 2003, but by June 2006 that number had risen to US$107.5 billion.
From the Philly Inquirer:
Regional hiccup in foreclosure data
Mortgage foreclosures grew 87 percent nationwide in June, and by 8.2 percent in the Philadelphia area, according to a report released yesterday by a California firm that tracks mortgage defaults.
But a wide disparity in the number of defaults in South Jersey compared with defaults in Southeastern Pennsylvania left regional economists questioning the data’s validity.
The Pennsylvania counties, including Philadelphia, had a 30 percent decline, while the total for Camden, Burlington and Gloucester Counties more than doubled, according to Irvine, Calif.-based RealtyTrac Inc.
…
Frank Nothaft, chief economist of Freddie Mac, said Pennsylvania’s job growth and overall economy kept real estate prices from falling as much as they had in other markets, but he could not explain why the South Jersey numbers had not followed Pennsylvania’s “since they share the same economy.”
New Jersey does have a slightly higher rate of past-due FHA and VA loans than Pennsylvania, which might account for some of the year-over-year increase.
Echoing the sentiments of other economists, however, Nothaft said he was “uncomfortable” with RealtyTrac’s methods. He suggested that the numbers might be “overstated.”
“Still, there is no question that there will be a pickup in the number of foreclosures going forward, especially when the rates [for] subprime loans taken out in 2006 begin adjusting,” he said.
From Bloomberg:
GE Will Seek Buyer for Subprime Unit After Defaults
General Electric Co. plans to sell WMC Mortgage, the company’s three-year-old U.S. subprime mortgage unit, following a surge in defaults by borrowers.
“The mortgage industry has greatly changed since the purchase of WMC,” Laurent Bossard, chief executive officer of the division, said in an e-mail to employees yesterday. “The current subprime market environment has made a significant negative impact on the business.”
GE’s decision to divest WMC comes as more than 60 mortgage companies have halted operations, gone bankrupt or sought buyers since the start of 2006, according to Bloomberg data. The contraction in the subprime industry caused the near- collapse last month of two hedge funds run by Bear Stearns Cos. and the downgrading of almost $12 billion of mortgage securities by ratings companies.
Does anybody have previous experience with tax reassessments? In the GSMLS site a saw a house in Montclair that had a very old total assessment around 70K and was paying about 7k a year with a rate of 10%. A note at the bottom of the page said it had recently been reassessed at 280K. It was being offered at 299K I think.
Question: would the new buyer be slammed with a 28K annual tax? would the rate be immediately reset to, say, 3%? where would the figure for the new rate come from? would there be a time lag between reassessment and rate adjustment so that the owner would be paying 28K for a while? how long? any way of getting overpaid money back?
thanks a lot!
JB (#11)
You’re always up for a challange, and, you certainly deliver. Thanks for the historical info.
What per cent do you think townhouses/condos will fall? I think they’ll drop 1.5 to 2x what houses drop. 20% drop in SFH will see 30 to 40% drop in condos.
I think SFH in NNJ will drop a minimum of 20%, probably more over the next 2 years. Virtually anything in the area where Morris, Union, and Somerset meet that is better then a cape still lists at more then 5x median income for that town. Unsustainable.
From Survival Report, no link.
The housing bubble news of the week was a 40% plunge in orders at D.R. Horton Inc. :
“D.R. Horton Inc., the second-largest U.S. homebuilder, will report a third-quarter loss after orders plunged 40%, and said it sees no sign of a housing rebound.
“‘We expect the housing environment to remain challenging,’ Chairman Donald Horton said today in a statement. The Fort Worth, Texas-based company is planning a ‘significant’ writedown in the value of its real estate, and the shares fell to a three-year low.
“D.R. Horton said orders dropped in every region, with the steepest declines in California and the Northeast…
“D.R. Horton took 8,559 home orders in the fiscal third quarter, compared with 14,316 in the year earlier. The cancellation rate was 38%. The value of houses ordered plunged 47%, to $2 billion.
“The number of net sales orders fell 53% in California and Reno, Nev., the most of any region. In Horton’s northeast region, containing Illinois, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania, orders tumbled 42%. Orders dropped 41% each in its south central and southwest regions. Orders in the southeast fell 25%, the least of the company’s regions.”
That news had all the housing bubble blogs going gangbusters. I did not see a single person comment on the most significant piece of the story.
Lost in the news (but not to Survival readers) was this key idea:
“The extra yield that homebuilders with junk-rated status must pay investors to own their bonds instead of Treasuries rose 1.07 percentage points, to 4.53 percentage points, in the 30 days ended July 6, Morgan Stanley data show. That compares with a 0.44 percentage point increase, to 2.96 percentage points, for the average junk-rated issuer, Morgan Stanley said.”
Borrowing costs for homebuilders are going up. Significantly. That means further reduced margins on top of already rapidly shrinking margins. The homebuilders are all reporting losses now. Those losses will be increasing.
Some of the homebuilders are likely to go bankrupt. It happens every cycle. So if some people start telling you these stocks are “cheap ” based on book values or whatever, we suggest you turn away and run.
Reech (5)-
Do you really believe this? The pace of inventory buildup has slowed? Why does that even matter? It’s still at an all-time high.
The ONLY stat that matters is sales. And sales are down…and going lower.
reech (6)-
“…i’m believing more and more NYC is different and largely immune to the overall effects.”
You’ve outdone yourself on this one…this statement could be the dumbest thing you’ve ever written here.
Did you live in NYC during the late ’80s?
Prices aren’t dropping!
Buyers are greedy!
NNJ is bubble proof!
What a joke.
Doesn’t everyone feel compelled to forward this website to ANYONE who is thinking of buying a home in 2007? I now think it absolutely should not be done.
What’s the rush? We’re in a situation where we want out of our apartment (for no particular reason other than space), but there’s no rush with prices coming down.
#21 – The taxes will go up but not necessarily too much. 1/3 usually go up, 1/3 are about the same and 1/3 drop. We were on the receiving end of a nice drop because we had a newer house, appraised accordingly, while many others were assessed at levels far below 100K. Once reassessed some went up 30%, ours dropped 40% but five years later we’re within 15% of where were were.
You’re assessment tripled but it depends on what the average is in your town. If you are still below then you’ll probably see a small increase.
Bath (27)-
Not everyone is you. Not everyone can wait. There is opportunity now…for a limited number of buyers and sellers.
Through all the carnage, we’ve maintained a steady pace of transactions, virtually all of which make sense for a host of various reasons.
NYC:
The dollar doesn’t matter? As long as the world economy is churning and the dollar is bastardized, NYC will thrive. A condo in NY may cost $1 million. However, my colleague on the Thames can buy the same condo for $500k BP.
I tried to book a trip to Bermuda over the 4th. I could not get anything. The hotel manager said the island was filled with Europeans. Dollar doesn’t matter? What the hell, I go to Boston. Filled with Europeans. One couple asked us how it feels paying $8 for a beer, while they pay $4 BP.
Go price the Dow in Euros, CD’s, BP’s, gold, etc… Better yet, take your market gains and travel overseas. NYC will continue to be a major beneficiary of our collapsing dollar.
This is true.
Somewhere out there, somebody’s got a good patience quote. Better than ‘patience is a virtue.’
Bottom line: if you thought asking prices were falling this summer (when homes actually sell), this winter will be even better (when far fewer homes traditionally sell).
Off to the Shore, where i’ll be reading NJ Re Report from my treo under an umbrella!
“Through all the carnage, we’ve maintained a steady pace of transactions, virtually all of which make sense for a host of various reasons.”
Clot,
Show something that makes sense to me. I’ll even meet you in that old rustic inn.
BC,
Transactions that make sense? How about a lateral move to be closer to a new job?
My sister-in-law moved from Warren County to Middlesex to be closer to her job. She purchased a home that was basically equivalent to (size and price) to the one she sold. Her mother-in-law is an agent, and she handled both transactions to take some of the edge off the cost.
jb
#11
Just curious, is there a way to get the total number of houses in bergen county for each year, and then adjust the sales numbers to show % of turnover each year? What do you think it would show?
JB,
I also moved closer to my daytime activities. I just decided to rent rather than buy. That said, I understand why many, who currently own, would not want to take that route. I did’t make the move because I felt that this market would drop 10-20%. If that is the end result, my move would not have been justified.
JB: Love the new chart showing percentage change in inventory.
I basically proves one thing, that masses follow the herd and most of the time are late to the party. 2004 & 2005 were the boom years, but as your chart showed, majority of sellers did not take advantage of that. I think most waited thinking they will try to sell at the peak and get the max value. Things turned around from Jul 2005, when most started listing their houses and could not sell.
I think this chart will go negative as % increases reduce drastically. When it starts coming back up, I think it will be a good buy point.
You want churn? I got churn.
jb
From MarketWatch:
Retail sales fall 0.9%, largest drop since 2005
With weak demand for durable goods and falling gas prices, U.S. retail sales fell 0.9% in June, the largest decline since August 2005, the government said Friday. The decline was much larger than the 0.3% drop estimated by economists canvassed by MarketWatch. Revisions to May and April data were also negative on balance. Excluding auto sales, retail sales dropped 0.4%, the largest decline since last September. Economists were expecting a 0.2% gain excluding autos. In the past year, retail sales are up 3.8% before adjusting for inflation. Auto sales fell 2.9%. Gasoline sales fell 1.1%. Excluding autos, sales fell 0.4%, below expectations for a 0.2% gain.
JB [37],
Doing too much at one time. Meant, US economy churns, overseas on fire.
BC,
#35, I tried to get them to rent. I found them a very nice townhouse with a reasonable rent. Of course, the Realtor mother-in-law powers were much too strong to overcome. After all, renting is throwing money away. The interest on the equity from their sale would have paid a good portion of their monthly rent.
#39,
Was in response to #11.
jb
#6 Richard: NYC Will be differetn until its not. I tmay be one of the last to get hit, but it will. Happened before, will happen again.
It may be one of the last to get hit, but it will. Happened before, will happen again.
I remember hearing many stories of NYC Co-ops crashing. That’s when the prices went from $50k to $125k and back down again. The same units are now selling for $500k
I’ll be leaving for Europe in two weeks. I sure hope the dollar finds some way to rally, because my wallet is already starting to grumble.
jb
I hear ya JB – I moved to Germany in 2002, which coincided almost exactly with the start of the USD’s plunge.
Now that I’m going back for a vacation in August of course the USD is hitting all-time lows… I think the x-rate is directly tied to my travel plans :)
At least we found round-trip tix from Newark to Frankfurt on SAS for $550 each, but hotels, food, drink, and tavel over there is going to be freakin EXPENSIVE!
we’ll surely have great trips anyway, hey it’ only money ;)
Kurt
it really is an interesting RE Market right now! yesterday i got two emails from two different RE Agents citing the same NAR prediction of higher sales next year…they want me to buy homes that they say (according to the NAR) will go up in value in next year which will enable me to turn it around for a profit!
does anyone still fall for this? are the RE Agents really on the side of their clients?
JB – your blog has helped me tremendously in understanding the market – i was so ready to buy earlier this year (even put an offer, which (thank God) got rejected) and now i am going to be even more cautious…
Thanks and keep up the good work!
My neighbor just listed his house 100K below my purchase price 2 years ago. What should I do, confront him or jump of the bridge like that Hoboken RE agent?
A friend of mine who sold his townhouse in Toms River for $260,000 (moved to NC) in December 2006 just said the person he sold it to is already trying to sell it. They are trying to sell it at his original asking price of $280,000. It was on the market for 6 months before it sold and this time i believe it’ll be on the market even longer.
Reech is right, NYC is different:
http://www.therealdeal.net/breaking_news/2007/07/12/1184249355.php
JB [43],
Take a suitcase of that de facto currency.
We felt the pain of the falling dollar when we were living in Australia. When we first moved there it was 59 US cents to 1 Aussie $. After the exchange rate things were still more expensive in Australia then they were in the US. By the time we moved back to Jersey this year, it was 83 US cents to 1 Aussie dollar. It was cheaper for us to shop in Whole Foods in Madison then a regular grocery store in Sydney.
I told my wife it was good training for when we move back to the US. Lower quality and higher prices.
From the AP:
Confidence Drops to Nearly 1-Year Low
Consumer confidence slid to its lowest point in almost a year as worries about job availability, high gasoline prices and the severity of the housing slump weighed on peoples’ minds.
The steep drop disappointed economists and raised fresh questions about consumers’ appetite to spend in the months ahead; their spending is a major shaper of the country’s economic health.
…
“Consumers feel more pessimistic. There is a spreading sense of insecurity and concern,” said Bill Cheney, chief economist at John Hancock Financial Services.
Please, excuse the explicative, but I’ve got to use it. Holy Crap.
From Bloomberg:
Iran Asks Japan to Pay Yen for All Oil, Starting Immediately
Iran asked Japanese refiners to switch to the yen to pay for all crude oil purchases, to counter the risk that U.S. dollar transfers may be frozen by increased sanctions.
Iran wants yen-based transactions “for any/all of your forthcoming Iranian crude oil liftings,” according to a letter sent to Japanese refiners that was signed by Ali A. Arshi, general manager of crude oil marketing and exports in Tehran at the National Iranian Oil Co. The request is for all shipments “effective immediately,” according to the letter, dated July 10 and obtained by Bloomberg News.
At stake are payments from Japanese refiners to Iran that rose 12 percent last year to 1.24 trillion yen ($10.1 billion), according to the finance ministry in Tokyo. Iran is Japan’s third- largest oil supplier, behind Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
A spokesman for Iran’s oil ministry in Tehran said he could neither confirm nor deny that the letter had been sent. Most Japanese oil refiners have until now used U.S. dollars to pay Iran for oil, said the spokesman, who declined to be identified by name because of government policy.
Too much information?
Check out this short video on where we may head with the information and media wars.
How would we get the truth about housing then?
http://mccd.udc.es/orihuela/epic/ols-master.html
Yesterday all is well, good retail numbers lets rock and roll.
Today poor retial sales, decline in consumer confidence,and here we go again.
Which way is up? Down?
From MarketWatch:
U.S. July UMich consumer sentiment 92.4 vs 85.3 in June
Consumer sentiment rebounded in July, according to a monthly survey released Friday by Reuters and the University of Michigan. The consumer sentiment index rose to 92.4 in July from 85.3 in June. The increase was above the consensus forecast of Wall Street economists who had expected sentiment to improve to 86.5.
Patience-
Patience is waiting-not passively waiting, that is laziness-But to keep going when the going is hard and slow-That is patience
*unknown*
KL
Patience-
All human wisdom is summed up in two words-
Wait and hope
*unknown*
KL
Patience-
Patience is the companion of wisdom
*unknown*
KL
Patience –
He that can have patience, can have what he will.
* Ben Franklin *
KL
Say Uncle!
I’m interested in how the condo/townhome market does vs the SFH market. I moved here 6 years ago from Minneapolis and once I was ready to buy in 2004 I knew the market was too high.
Now I’m moving to Madison, WI in about 2 months and have been watching the market there.
Supposedly, Madison has always been bubble resistant as the city historically got the majority of its population worked in state govt or the university which minimized layoffs, etc. Now I am looking at the market and it shows about 5,000 units for sale upfrom 2,000 four years ago. They average about 550 units sold a month (300 in Winter upto 800 in summer) and their graph looks like a mini bubble. However, the REO market is not included and is one of the largest in the country supposedly at around 20% of all sales.
Based on this and the fact that homes prices maxed out at around 15% YOY in 2004-05 and is flat to -2 in the first 6 months of this year I expected some considerable price reductions in this “recession/housing proof” market.
However, upon further review the market in Madison is unique. The city sits on an isthmus and downtown is full of old houses that are primarily student rentals. However over the last few years many large apartment buildings have been built and students are moving into these places at the expense of the distant student homes. Because of this and the push to increase density Madison has added tons of new condo development downtown with about 2,500 units still in various construction stages. However, these condo units are not selling.
Deciding whether I wanted to rent/buy when I move there I looked at the market some more. Rents have already creeped up and the rent/buy difference that I see in NJ is not really there in Madison. However, I am now trying to determine how related the condo and SFH market will move together.
Total Units for sale – Around 5,000 sales around 550/month. Means about a 10 month inventory, not too horrible but up from 3-4 month in 2002-03. But when I did further it appears recently that while there were minimal (under 50 per quarter) condo sales 4 years ago it has grown to about 300 per quarter now or about 20% of all sales. However, the data for SFH is an inventory of 2,800 averaging about 450 (550-100) or a 5-6 month inventory while the condo market is 2,200 units with about 100 units per month or an amazing 22 months of inventory. SFH prices are basically flat over the last 12 months but condos are down 10% on average. With all these additional condo units coming online I think the condo market has another serious leg down but I am not sure how much people assume its the same market.
thoughts/comments on condo/SFH relationship…
Retail sales down steeply in June.
Consumers put away their wallets in June, sending retail sales crashing by the sharpest amount in nearly two years.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070713/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/economy;_ylt=AuMTsEs_5RxAAj8L8_.5xb3MWM0F
Yes, the effects of the sub prime debacle are truly contained.
I don’t believe anything I hear from anybody nowadays
#55 JB Maybe consumers are bi-polar. I feel good I spend, I feel bad I do not spend, good spend,and so on.
How can any one pay attention to this stuff. As always one must look at the trend,and the trend in consumer spending is down,and will continue down.
We are just finishing the second quarter of this game.
Reuters: GE profit up 9.6 percent, to sell subprime unit
BOSTON (Reuters) – General Electric Co. reported earnings in line with Wall Street’s expectations on Friday, citing strong demand for jet engines, gas turbines and other heavy equipment, sending shares to a five-year high.
Those businesses overshadowed weakness at the company’s loss-making WMC Mortgage subprime lending unit, which is being put on the block.
More at: http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSWNAS592620070713
Dear James, thank you for all the useful information you provide. We have just renewed our lease , as I am still sitting on the fence, I did see one t/h, which I really like, listed at $480, the same one sold last year for $409 after sitting for a very long time, its original price $490, in your opinion , if we were to put an offer, what do you think would be fair, knock 15%or 20% off ?
>>If I did the legwork to build a dataset back to 1995, you’d complain that we need to look back to 1990.
that’s a cop out and you know it. one can tell any story they want by controlling the data sets. i’m not suggesting you do it i’m saying take it as a disclaimer.
From Reuters:
S&P to review RMBS backed by Alt-A collateral
Standard & Poor’s on Friday said it is reviewing residential mortgage-backed securities backed by home loans rated just above risky subprime debt.
Those loans, known as Alt-A loans, as well as net interest margins rated from the fourth quarter of 2005 to the end of 2006, will be reviewed by S&P, the rating company said.
>>#6 Richard: NYC Will be differetn until its not. I tmay be one of the last to get hit, but it will. Happened before, will happen again.
maybe so, but how many years is one going to sit around that wants to buy but is waiting for a good entry point? life is passing you by as it relates to a major life decision folks. you can sit on the sidelines and keep waiting years and years or come up with your own formula take your lumps (whatever they are) and get to it.
>>Just an observation. I’ve been looking at houses in BC since Dec 06 and I’m noticing far fewer listings in the 7-9 range. In december, there were many more houses on the market and we’ve been a little caught by surprise at how little inventory there is.
hearing this a lot more lately and it looks like the pattern bears this out. lack of quality out there so guess what? you see something of quality so do other house hunters and multiple people jump at it helping to keep prices higher. simple supply and demand. they should have more categories than overall supply to better understand the different stratums and patterns.
Right Richard, because we all know that life begins the day you buy a house.
Grow up and quit the psychof*cking, we get enough of that from the NAR. Nobody is sitting around and waiting. Life goes on whether you rent or buy.
jb
JB #52, I wouldn’t put too much weight behind the actions of the Iranian dictatorship.
It’s a propaganda ploy against the US.
#68
Yes, to this point… even in this declining market if “quality” homes in “top towns” keep getting multiple bids and move quickly than how will they be affected moving forward? These are the homes I hope to be looking at in the next few years. I they aren’t getting hit now, how hard will they get hit when all is said and done? If the market declines and prices become more realistic than that is all well and good. But, if the only homes I’m interested in get bid up and are gone in the bat of an eye than that’s not great news either…
#67 Richard: for NYC, and Manhattan specifically you may be right.
How many years will it take, who knows, but I would guess sooner rather than later.
Away from NYC (Manhattan), prices are now dropping, and in many cases substanially, so that part is already playing out.
You and I can argue all we want, but I have to believe that any one who purchsed in 05/06, if they are honest, cannot be feeling too good right now.
Stripping away all the feel good stuff of building equity, not paying rent, painting the walls, etc.
At the end of the day, people want to believe that if their house is not appreciating, than at least they would get what they paid for it. If you bought in the last 2 to 3 years, that in many case will not be happening.
It is a big psychological blow to write that check every month, knowing that the price is going down, talk to those who went through the last down turn.
As far as putting life on hold, I will give you that too, to a point. There is a comfort level in saying this is mine, I am settled etc. As a former homeowner, I can certainly relate to that.
But on the other hand renters or owners, we all get up every day, go to wror raise our children, live our lives,and do what we have to do.
What really is another year or two at this point especially for a long term (10 or more years) committment like a house purchase.
Yes we may not know at the end what ultimately might happen, but I haev no doubt that over the nexxt couple of years, that we will have to worry about prices rising.
Iran has a good deal of pull around the world. What if Russia (a somewhat below the radar but consistent ally of Iran) decided to switch currencies too?
#71 Doyle; That will not go on forever, and it used to be common place, that is not the case now.
#67- life is passing you by as it relates to a major life decision folks. you can sit on the sidelines and keep waiting years and years or come up with your own formula take your lumps (whatever they are) and get to it.
Get to it? Get to what? Buying an asset that I believe with 99% certainty will decrease in value in the next year? Do I want to buy a house-yes, have I owned a house previously-yes. It’s not like I’m living in a tent and plan to for the next decade. My rental house is just like a purchased house, but if it drops in value it has no effect on me, and it costs less per month.
So, what exactly should I get to? Why should I take my lumps when I have the option to take no lumps?
There was talk of Iran asking for payment in yen back in March or so.
Iran presses oil customers to pay in currencies other than dollars
Japanese refiners, who buy about 500,000 barrels per day of Iranian crude, nearly a quarter of Iran’s 2.2-million barrel daily shipments, continue to pay in dollars but are willing to shift to yen if asked, people in the industry and officials said separately.
…
Japanese buyers, including the country’s top refiner, Nippon Oil, said they had all received informal encouragement from Iran to pay on nondollar terms, but were awaiting an official request.
“We are looking at it so that we can switch the currencies any time, but we have not gotten any official requests from them,” the Nippon Oil chairman, Fumiaki Watari, said last week. “We are doing the transactions in dollars.”
The fact that petrodollar hegemony can be used as a propoganda play is what is so disconcerting. If it didn’t matter economically, nobody would care. But they don’t need to turn off the spigots to hurt the U.S. anymore, they just need to price the oil in something other than dollars.
For a primer in petrodollar recycling, I’ll defer to this piece from the NY Fed:
Recycling Petrodollars
During the recent run-up in oil prices, the United States has seen only a small fraction of the increase in its payments to oil exporters recycled to purchase goods produced locally. Significantly, however, the United States has been the ultimate destination—even if it has not been the direct destination—for petrodollars recycled into the international financial markets. Other oil-importing countries, taken together, have responded to higher oil prices by curtailing consumption (boosting saving) or reducing investment spending, leaving their current accounts in surplus.
The recycling of petrodollars into the U.S. financial markets has supported activity here by allowing for higher consumption and investment spending than otherwise would have occurred. The concomitant cost has been a further expansion of the U.S. economy’s already sizable net international liabilities.
jb
#65 Richard: there is your lack of consistency again. When the NAR was spouting all is well (and sonn will be well again), you parroted their line, with of course thats true.
When presented with facts that prove otherwise, than you pooh-pooh the data.
So the data is right if prices are rising, wrong if falling; as I said not consistent.
#67 richard,
If I thought houses were overvalued by 5 to 10%, i wouldn’t mind buying now. But i truly believe they are overpriced by at least 20%, probably a lot more then that. I believe taking the lumps as you call it and purchasing now would result most likely in overpaying us overpaying by 100k for a pos cape, ranch, or a nice house that is on the train track or under a transmission tower. Which would be a significant hit for most people, even those rare few pulling in 200k a year.
So I’ll quite happily rent and be able to eat out, take vacations, save for retirement, enjoy quality time with my family while the lumpentoriat who bought at 2004 to today go upside down, live paycheck to paycheck, are streesed about getting laid off, fall deeper into debt.
Post #11 does not look like a cop out to me.
Richard,
Manhattan is not NYC.
Manhattan *might* be different this time because of the huge drop in the dollar and foreign investment.
But no question SFH’s in the outer boroughs are getting hit with foreclosures.
#12 seekinginfo: 520 Singl Family Homes for sale in Bergen County right now, in the 700k to 900k price range.
Minimum 3 beds/2baths. (njmls). Seems like enough inventory to me.
#78 barien 2003 until today.
I friend of mine took advice from some realtors (may be friends of Richard). In August 2005, he bought bigger house 600K before selling his TH, which was then listed at 460K. At the end he had to sell it for 390K after 6 months of paying double mortgage. So net perceived loss 70K + 30K in mortgage payments. Not only that the house he bought at 600K is now worth only 500K.
So much for moving on in life and keep following the Jones’s.
JB,
Thanks for the link to the petrodollar article.
-Sapiens
#82 3b,
I was being optimistic.
See, Richard thinks my choice of starting point has to do with selection bias. I’ve selectively and secretly chosen my start and end points to paint the market in the worst possible light. Because the data I post doesn’t fit his world view, I must be manipulating it.
Occam’s Razor Richard. It has nothing to do with selection bias or motives.
When GSMLS upgraded from Tempo last year, they didn’t import transaction data prior to 2001.
I’d go back further, but further just ain’t there.
jb
JB,
Any guesses why volume takes a 23% jump in bc (post #11) between 1997-1998 ?
afe
At the end of the day, whatever arguments that hold against a homeowner only knowing the true value of his home when he puts his house for sale also applies equally the other way around. Buyers will only know how competitive a specific market is when they are actively looking for a house. As they say, historical data is not an accurate reflection of future performance.
who says that ac?
OPEC has been discussing a move away from dollar to the euro/basket of currencies for the past couple of years. Russia is also touting this. Kuwait has abandoned its dinar peg to the dollar. It’s coming. If/when this occurs, good night Irene. Want high interest rates? Saudi, our military, is our current anchor
maybe gsmls did not import the data because they have a selection bias regarding prices?
re #60
Lived there 20 years. Old homes are really old. As of when I left, there had not really been a flipper craze with granite and SS everywhere.
There are really no bad areas other than South Park St down to the Beltline, west of Fair Oaks between Washington Ave and Milwaukee St, and just south of the Technical College campus on the East side.
The town is diverse for a midwest town due to the UW and so has a good selection of restaurants for its size.
Lots of bike paths and pretty good bus service result in reasonable commute times. There is now a significant rush hour, but that mainly affects the beltline west of Park St. with good flow elsewhere except some congestion on Park St, East Washington, Unbiversity Ave and Johnson St downtown.
I was able to commute from Stoughton, about 20Mi SE to the downtown in about 40 minutes door to door if I traveled in before 7:00am and left before 3:30pm, adding 15min each way later.
Depending on where you’ll be working, there are some locations that can make in-town commutes inefficient since the bus system has gone to a hub and spoke arrangement.
#60,
This is the NJ real estate report. JB does a great job of posting NJ area data. Unless some poster lives in Madison, WI, I wouldn’t ask for input here.
“Buyers will only know how competitive a specific market is when they are actively looking for a house.”
That is so true – having looked in different areas at different times, the buying environments, homes available, etc. were vastly different from area to area, even in Southern Westchester compared to Northern. We were much more relaxed when looking this last time than at any other time, and apparently other buyers were as well.
I don’t know, I am planning to stay in my house for a long time on the expectation that I will see a small nominal depreciation (which may already have been accounted for in the lower than would have been list price and negotiations we did) and then total flatness (real loss) for a while. I wouldn’t have bought if I couldn’t stay there forever if necessary. But then, it’s a home, not an investment and for us, it was affordable – less than 28% of our gross income. But I freely acknowledge the chance that down the road I might be unhappy about the decision. I won’t second guess forever, but I am not shiny happy people like Reechard.
I stand corrected. We have a poster from Madison, WI.
Interesting, didn’t know that Indymac Bank had a blog. They’ve got a post discussing the impact of the subprime bond downgrades..
http://theimbreport.com/?p=34
How will this affect Indymac?
Indymac was the issuer of 20 (or approximately 2%) of the 1,011 bonds that were downgraded or placed on credit watch today. Of those 20 bonds, Indymac owns one bond with a $3.8 million book value.
The result of these actions taken by S&P and Moody’s will have a few longer term effects. For example, we believe:
• There will be fewer subprime loans made, generally at higher rates, and there will be a reduction in these consumers’
ability to purchase homes and refinance their existing mortgages.
• As a result of increased subordination levels, there will be a lower percentage of loans sold in private label securities in
favor of sales to the GSEs.
• Those institutions with portfolio capabilities will hold a higher percentage of loans in their portfolios.
maybe so, but how many years is one going to sit around that wants to buy but is waiting for a good entry point? life is passing you by as it relates to a major life decision folks. you can sit on the sidelines and keep waiting years and years or come up with your own formula take your lumps (whatever they are) and get to it.
Richard, I know people who live in Westfield. They live in nice single-family houses. They send their kids to Westfield schools. They belong to Memorial Pool. They go listen to the music every Tuesday in Mindowaskin Park. They are enjoying everything the town has to offer….and they are renting. How is life passing them by exactly?
BC and JB,
How do you make sense of this Iran move in light of their supposed concessions on Nuke program?
It seems to me they are very nervous all of a sudden.
Has this been posted yet?
Virtual Real Estate Boom
NEW YORK (Reuters) – Home buyers and home sellers alike can find more innovative and useful features than ever on real estate Web sites, which are nimbly adapting to the U.S. housing slump.
For those poking around the real estate market, it might be worthwhile to check out sites like buysiderealty.com, iggyshouse.com, zillow.com and trulia.com to see just how much online home shopping has changed lately.
More at: http://features.us.reuters.com/techlife/news/A00C2D6A-30BC-11DC-BF85-8B6F4363.html
From Reuters:
Benchmark ABX indexes hits intraday record low
Benchmark ABX indexes, used by investors to hedge subprime mortgage risks from 2006, sank further below recent record lows after a series of rating downgrades to subprime mortgage securities this week, traders said.
“Both indexes are trading weaker. It’s more of the same concerns over the deterioration in subprime loans and the slew of rating actions this week,” said one portfolio manager.
The ABX 06-2 index, which references loans from 2006’s first half, slid to a 53.80 intraday low on Friday, in further weakening following its record low close of 54.73 set on Wednesday, traders said.
…
The ABX 07-1 index, which is tied to loans made to risky borrowers in last year’s second half, sank to 48 bid on Friday, below its record low close of 48.64 bid on Wednesday.
When I left newish 2 bdr 2 bath condos were going for the high 200s to mid 300s. You could also get SFH for the same.
As with all RE, look beyond the surface. There aren’t any major flood-prone areas, but there is a significant problem with lead paint and radon. The water is very hard, so WH, laundry, and plumbing get lots of scale.
I love it here, but IMHO you are moving to paradise.
afe,
This is included as a disclaimer on most if not all mutual fund prospectuses.
There’s no doubt that JB has done an excellent job on this website with the data. Well done! This is a great help from a macro perspective. It’s hard to visualize things being anything but negative solely from this information.
But based on specific local markets at the micro level, things may be a little different. It’s up to the buyer to arm himself/herself with the tools to make an educated decision on what a fair price is.
To understand each market, it is important to acknowledge the fact that factors affecting the micro and macro level can operate independently.
HEHEHE,
I take most everything I hear or read from peak oilists, gold bugs, and doomsdayists with a grain of salt. After all, where these folks sit is where they stand. Except maybe for the doomsdayist. What fun is betting on armageddon? You won’t get to spend your profits.
jb
JB
The oil peak is an interesting issue. The main proponents of the Hulbert curve seem to be nut cases and scientists. What do we make of that?
Michael Holt,
I went to undergrad/grad in Madison; great city, very livable.
Not sure about the RE mkt there but dont forget to check out the memoiral union terrace on the lake, its a great time on nice days.
Good luck.
“Michael Holt Says:
July 13th, 2007 at 10:19 am
Now I’m moving to Madison, WI in about 2 months and have been watching the market there. “
ac,
Maybe NAR should also adopt this message on their website and all real estate contracts need such a disclaimer attached as well.
afe
BC (32)-
Nothing out there yet that would make sense for you, personally. You’re probably a year off from getting near a buyable “bottom”.
However, just as in Grim’s sis-in-law example, there’s opportunity now for a limited number of buyers and sellers.
BC (49)-
Grim has been known to do just that. I got the goods on him. Heh, heh…
It’s really annoying when some people on here make blanket statements that everyone who bought from 2003 or 2004 until now is living paycheck to paycheck, is stressed out and getting further and further into debt. Is that the case in many places? Of course. But as many have said, there are many reasons people buy. Take my buddy at work as an example, he is 29, makes good $ and so does his wife. They rented cheaply and saved $ straight from college graduation. They bought a house about 6 months ago out on Long Island. It is a beautiful house that they plan on living in for the next 30 years. He does not follow the real estate market closely, does not care. He has no idea how much $ he may lose on paper, and I guarantee he won’t even notice. It’s just the kind of guy he is, and in 30 years I’m sure he’ll be just fine.
I understand the drift of these statements, but this does not ALWAYS apply.
Grim (66)-
Thus begins the lightning round.
Reech (68)-
There should also be a fourth dimension to the physical world.
Although I’m now beginning to think there is one…and you occupy it.
Doyle,
This makes people feel better about themselves and their decision to wait. They just assume everyone who has bought recently is living paycheck to paycheck bc that’s the only they could have afforded their house.
Doyle Says:
July 13th, 2007 at 12:22 pm
It’s really annoying when some people on here make blanket statements that everyone who bought from 2003 or 2004 until now is living paycheck to paycheck, is stressed out and getting further and further into debt.
Personally I believe Peak Oil 100%. Read Twilight in the Desert; Matt Simmons is anything but a wacko.
Why do you think Buffet just plunked down all that $$$ on those railroads? Soros dumping $$$ into offshore drillers? Sh*ts and giggles? They know where the price of oil is going and they know why.
ADA,
It’s just thrown around way too much and after a while it’s nails on a chalkboard…
#105 – It’s Hubbert’s Peak and it was statistically right on the money. The only problem with such a prediction in Worldwide oil is that OPEC screws around with their oil reserve numbers as much as Worldcom did with their earnings.
Richard – There is a position open for you in Iraq which will replace Baghdad Bob. You should apply for that. You will make a good candidate. It must be tough for you to make these stupid statements when you have hard facts in front of you,
Off topic, heading into the weekend.
Anyone on Linked in?
jb
I have relatives deep in RR business. Summer of 2005 the railroads were near capacity and worried that they would not be able to move enough coal to meet eastern power demands.
Also I have been wondering for months why Iran with supposedly huge oil reserves is pushing nuke and now is rationing gas since they could build new refining capacity without all the political resistance.
Not that Richard really needs anyone to come to his defense, but I understand what he’s getting at.
1. there will never be a perfect time to buy
2. there is a cost to remaining in limbo indefinitely
3. other people (not all of them dumb) are buying, so it is not necessarily true that buying is de facto stupid.
Basically, I think the scales easily tip in favor of holding off in most cases right now, but I think it’s good to acknowledge that nothing is certain.
Funny Century 21 Ad: If you haven’t noticed in last few weeks Century 21 has been running their Gold standard Ad on TV.
The funniest one I show was today morning, where the Realtor says, “I do what every other 144,000 other agents do every day, that is to wear this (gold) Jacket” !!!
Well, I just had a showing today. The people were repeats. Little did the buyers know, but as they were talking about my house outside, I was inside listening to most of what they were saying.
Here are the highligts:
Buyer: The price is expensive. No matter how you loook at it, it’s stil a single family.
Agent: This house is going to sell quickly and you should be prepared to pay full asking price.
Here is my question. If the house is “overpriced,” um, why did you come back for a second look?
What about Buffett?
Home builders, Hovnanian rise on Buffett rumors
Home-builder stocks rallied Friday, led by Hovnanian Enterprises Inc., which rose nearly 9%, on published reports that billionaire investor Warren Buffett could be purchasing a stake in the company.
119: Re the RR’s, oil prices are going to continue a steady creep up over the longterm making RR’s the freight provider of choice in the US where feasible because of their coal usage. Trucking co’s are going to get crushed on their bottom line.
As far as Iran, I have no idea what’s going on, that is why I posed the question. Just seems like they are taking a bunch defensive moves of late. Seems kind of odd given it’s a week after Bush and Putin’s meeting.
119: Re the RR’s, oil prices are going to continue a steady creep up over the longterm making RR’s the freight provider of choice in the US where feasible because of their coal usage. Trucking co’s are going to get crushed on their bottom line.
As far as Iran, I have no idea what’s going on, that is why I posed the question. Just seems like they are taking a bunch defensive moves of late. Seems kind of odd given it’s less than a week after Bush and Putin’s meeting.
From Newsday:
City offering 26 acres of Manhattan waterfront for development
For sale: Development rights to 26 acres of costly, but potentially prime, real estate near the Hudson River on Manhattan’s West Side.
Gov. Eliot Spitzer announced Friday that city, state and transit officials have begun soliciting bids for the right to build over a big rail yard where Mayor Michael Bloomberg wanted to put a new stadium to host the New York Jets and the 2012 Olympics.
That project failed two years ago _ along with the city’s bid for the games.
Now, the city hopes to find a deep-pocketed developer or two willing to put a deck over two sections of the property and build office towers, apartment buildings, parks and a cultural center.
The enterprise wouldn’t be cheap. Constructing the platform alone, while trains continue to rumble beneath, is expected to cost hundreds of millions of dollars. City officials also want any buyer to include affordable housing.
Spitzer declined to name an asking price Friday, but said the Metropolitan Transportation Authority, which owns the land, hopes to raise enough to erase a $1 billion deficit in its construction budget.
JB #118, LinkedIn.com is a great networking tool.
http://www.linkedin.com
Buffett rumors lift Hovnanian, home-builder shares
NEW YORK (Reuters) – Shares of Hovnanian Enterprises Inc., the No. 6 U.S. home builder, rose sharply on Friday as rumors swirled that Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. would buy an interest in the struggling home builder.
“There is talk that Warren Buffett is buying a stake in Hovnanian,” said Jon Najarian, co-founder of optionmonster.com. “We think such a move by Buffett would clearly signal a bottom is finally in or near this battered housing sector.”
More at:
http://www.reuters.com/article/hotStocksNews/idUSN1327843120070713
They didn’t really say 144,000 did they? Is Century 21 a front for Jehova’s witnesses? That number also represents “all of God’s children” in the book of Revelation.
Sorry, should explain for those of you who don’t open the front door, Jehova’s Witnesses believe 144,000 people will be born again and live in heaven with God.
I agree with ADA and Doyle, in that I’m not going to be living paycheck to paycheck when we move. I will still be able to save – not at the rate I do now, but I will be able to (and that includes maxing pension funds, etc.)
I also think making that assumption makes your argument weaker because it’s not necessarily factual.
I remember that about the Jehova’s. Why would anybody join a religion with such low odds of getting into heaven?
HEHEHE, now that’s funny.
It’s not even 144,000 per year, it’s 144,000 out of all human beings throughout all of history.
I agree with NJ Gal. Most buyers are not stupid. They can see the writing on the wall. It may in some circumstances make sense to max out when an asset is appreciating like RE did over the past 6 years or so. In a declining market that is just not the case though and being ultra conservative is the key. We bought a house we would be perfectly happy to spend the next 30 years in. I have two good friends that are looking in the $1-2M range in the city and could easily afford twice as much with the same front ratio as me, yet they choose to be conservative as well. Just my 2 cents
afe 107,
That sounds like a novel idea.
I also think that the real estate industry (not just USA) should be more tightly regulated since Joe 6 pack is more likely to buy a house than invest in a complex derivative. But since this only works if the consumer bothers to educate himself/herself in the first place, it probably wouldn’t change anything for the people that really matter.
ADA, Doyle, NJGal,
I did not say everyone lives paycheck to paycheck. I said the lunpentoriat. The ones who bought out of fear of being priced out forever, the ones who used liar loans and/or short term arms and can’t afford the reset rate to qualfy for mtgs, they are the ones who live paycheck to paycheck. They will be the ones who are stressed as their arms reset and they get forclosed on are forced to sell. They will be the ones who set the new commps on the way down.
#135 ac– change in RE law would benefit the consumer if the lower burden of proof that applies to some forms of securities fraud applied to misinformation related to the sale of RE.
I agree that it is a strange juxtaposition given that your proverbial widows and orphans are more likely to own RE than stocks.
Re: 133 – HEHEHE
So for all we know, those 144,000 spots may already have been taken!
Nah, I think Richard Williams, Venus and Serena’s dad, is a Jehova. You know God make’s room for tennis parent’s.
bairen,
understood.
btw what is a lunpentoriat?
I used to date a girl who’s mom was a Jehova; birthdays, x-mas, halloween were a terrible time around their house. And dont even get me started about their moral medical issues.
skeptic 120,
Well said. I totally agree with you. It’s hard enough trying to bottom pick a commoditized product (stock), what more an exotic (house).
I read it as a play on words, a combination of proletariat (lower social class, working class) along with Richard’s comment of “taking your lumps”. Thus, Lumpentoriat representing a new social lower class defined by/imprisoned by the high debt incurred by stretching to achieve homeownership.
“Thus, Lumpentoriat representing a new social lower class defined by/imprisoned by the high debt incurred by stretching to achieve homeownership.”
Ha, creative!
On living paycheck to paycheck –
Some of my relatives are active in a branch of Catholic Charities that assists the poor – they’re part of a small, local unit.
They’re starting to get people who are in arrears on their mortgages. The typical thing is someone who’s been living paycheck to paycheck, and then they lose a job, and they have nothing in savings. The mortgage has been eating up a big chunk of their earnings.
By the time they come in, they’re several months in arrears, and there’s nothing they can do to help them. The dollar amount is too great, and their budget is small.
They’re used to providing assistance to mothers with children, the disabled, and the elderly. Basic stuff like food and furniture, and they will sometimes help with finding an apartment and putting up the security deposit.
The mortgage thing is something new. They’re shocked and alarmed by it.
Anyone see those ridiculous ads on Yahoo for mortgage re-fi? The girls “gettin down” before they act shocked as if they’ve been spotted by the viewer. Or the cartoons of “sexy” women strutting around. What the hell is this crap? Is this really supposed to entice someone to re-fi with them?
Scribe,
Where is the local unit?
>>Life goes on whether you rent or buy.
defensive no? life goes on yes, the quality might be different. i guess you don’t get out much and talk to anyone except those who frequent this board and think and feel very similarly then you do. i suggest you try it.
#127 The bottom will be in for this battered sector, when the invntory is gone.
Perhaps Mr. Buffet is getting in now, wnd is willing to wait another 2 or 3 years for a turn around.
Someone before was listing quotes regarding patience. As usual, William Shakespeare seems to have the most relevant quotes for the housing bubble as elsewhere in life and also as usual, it is left open to some interpretation. So when he wrote this, was he foreseeing the conundrum of bag holders who bought in ’05 so they would not be priced out forever, or was he referring to those who are now awaiting the collapse of housing prices. Old Bill leaves the interpretation up to you…
“How poor are they that have not patience! What wound did ever heal but by degrees?”
William Shakespeare
Doyle,
Woodbridge Township in Middlesex County.
#148 Richard We do not all live in dark cramped one bedroom apartments, sharing a bedroom with our children.
I rent a 3 bed 2 bath house. On a day in day out basis waht is the differrence between that and “owning” the same house.
Ok I cannot paint the walls, well actually I can, but don’t feel like painting them back.
You need to get away from this assumption that all posters here live in hovels in crappy towns.
You accuse us of not getting out, and having all sorts of pre-conceived notions,and yet that more accurately describes you in many respects.
>>They are enjoying everything the town has to offer….and they are renting. How is life passing them by exactly?
for one renting in westfield is quite pricey so if you’re renting i can’t imagine you do it to save $$$ to buy something. on another note they’re probably looked at as something less than a full member of the community since they aren’t tethered via home ownership. participating in the fabric but not part of it so to speak. as much as people might not like this there’s a reason why such viewpoints exist and it’s not purely because of snobbery. why do renters have such a bad connotation in the world?
>>But no question SFH’s in the outer boroughs are getting hit with foreclosures.
agreed i’m talking about manhattan, the center of the world ;)
Saw this quote and thought it apt for RE…
Senior Hedge Fund Executive: “Any boom has crevices for the cockroaches of capitalism to hide in.”
JM
>>You need to get away from this assumption that all posters here live in hovels in crappy towns.
i don’t think that at all. what bothers me is the overwhelmingly groupthink that flies in the face of any counter opinions. i’m sure you’d say the same about me ;)
#134 Mike For every NJ Gal out there, I would suggest that there is one that is absolutely clueless.
Perhaps it is me, but I am skeptical “with most buyers are smart”, if they were than why did so many choose to use crative financing when FRM’S had a 5 handle.
Why did so many pay full price for a house, and yet put little to no money down( have family in the business). Perhaps the buyers aout there now are smarter, however that remains to be seen.
#143,
thanks JB. You explained it better then I could have.
Richard, if you equate home ownership to having a quality life, I feel sorry for you. There are many more important things in life then homeownership.
Doesn’t someone who posts here rent in Westfield? I thought somebody said that a while back.
Curious on your take.
“Life goes on whether you rent or buy.”
I will buy again someday. However, I am getting used to the rental life. I have a built in pool, maintained by the landlord and my weekends are house free. After, the first year, zero rent increase. My landlord likes that I pay him cash. In addition to this, my capital is growing, outside of RE. I have the same friends, involved in the same community affairs, same commute to work, same restaurants,etc.. My quality of life is no different, actually somewhat improved.
#155 Richard: Well you need to understand that this forum was designed for people who believed there was a housing bubble.
I stumbeld by ont his site by accident,a nd found it to be a welcome respite form the rah-rah cheer leading found on so many others so called real estate information sites.
So group think, or a plce for people with similar beliefs can post, share information etc.
As we all know, this can be an emotional subject, I have been bullied and ridiculed foer my beliefs, and told how wrong I am. Yet all that hostility, if I am/was so wrong why all that hostility.
What is maddening now is the silence “I hear” from so many former Bulls, who do not want to talk real estate any more.
Or the recent quasi-converts to the cause who say well “Ok it is a bubble, but my house, my town my school or the year I purchased means it is not applciable to me.
#153 Richard Group Think?
“why do renters have such a bad connotation in the world”?
#159 BC Bob So you like being a dirty renter loser?
“they’re probably looked at as something less than a full member of the community since they aren’t tethered via home ownership.”
Well, the people in your town must be superficial. Can you imagime, my town wants me to run for council. Imagine that, a renter being asked to run for town office.
Owning is not related to life quality except in the minds of the petit-bourgeoise. It is mostly about the illusion of control.
James Bednar Says:
July 13th, 2007 at 10:59 am
Right Richard, because we all know that life begins the day you buy a house. Grow up and quit the psychof*cking, we get enough of that from the NAR. Nobody is sitting around and waiting. Life goes on whether you rent or buy. jb
grim: Please, excuse the explicative, but I’ve got to use it. Holy Crap.
Richard Says:
July 13th, 2007 at 10:48 am
that’s a cop out and you know it. one can tell any story they want by controlling the data sets. i’m not suggesting you do it i’m saying take it as a disclaimer.
Reech: Stop being a hypocrit. For example, how come all of your posts don’t have a disclaimer? WARNING: Please bear in mind that poster is an idiot and troll.
Ha, creative!
Give the kudos to Marx and Engels..
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lumpenproletariat
The lumpenproletariat (German Lumpenproletariat, “rabble-proletariat”; “raggedy proletariat”) is a term originally defined by Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels in The German Ideology (1845), their famous second joint work, and later expounded upon in subsequent works by Marx. In Marx’s The Eighteenth Brumaire of Louis Napoleon (1852), the term refers to the ‘refuse of all classes,’ including ‘swindlers, confidence tricksters, brothel-keepers, rag-and-bone merchants, organ-grinders, beggars, and other flotsam of society.’
jb
if anyone is looking at buying i recently saw this property and it’s a great deal at this price range. it’s currently asking $850k but can probably be had for $825k. it’s in a great part of westfield and the pictures don’t do it justice. it’s been on the market a while (128 days) but don’t let that fool you. trying to get some of you bubbleheads to bite ;)
mls# 2382866
#167
Doh. I thought I was using a play on Richard plus a bit of Bill Bonner.
That Lumpenteriat must have been buried deep in my subconscious. Maybe I did learn something in college!!
The vacancy rate for rentals in NYC is less than one percent, the latest figures on average rents:
“The average rent for a one-bedroom apartment shot up to $2,737, compared to $2,227 in 2002, and two-bedroom apartments climbed to $3,893, from $3,198 in 2002. Three-bedroom apartments saw the largest percentage increase: more than 36 percent, from $4,059 in 2002 to $5,534 last year. “
#165 chgo Shocking actually, I do not ever recall JB dropping (sort of) the F-BOMB.
I do howwver sympathize, everyvody does have their breaking point.
#63 But BC, You have no stake in the town, how can that be.
Oh my God could it be that you are an informed (about your town) intelligent dirty renter loser like me?
I think if anything, the manhattan averages are a bit on the low side.
I think decent 1 BRs are running over 3k per months
HEHE 123: What are you talking about RR’s using coal? That went out in the 50’s right?
The railroads run on diesel too; granted they are more efficient per mile traveled than trucks.
Reechard, renters are only looked down on by stupid people. If there was ever an example of groupthink and snobbery, the whole “looking down on renters” is the prime example (and one of the reasons we have the mess we’re in today, by the way).
And the idea that quality of life is somehow diminished by renting is just borderline retarded. Really, I’m not sure where you come up with this stuff. I have had a fantastic time renting these past few years – it’s rather carefree, with zero worries about money, or fixing things, or whether people thought I was “anchored to the community.” I know plenty of owners who barely care to acknowledge that they live in a community and couldn’t care less about participating so the idea that you’re not anchored if you rent in inane.
I can’t understand why people look down on a life that has been nothing but awesome to me – it’s a mentality I find rather pathetic, and only for those who care what other people think – not a happy way to live.
“aren’t tethered via home ownership. participating in the fabric but not part of it so to speak”
You’re such a narcissist. Do you have any friends?
The vacancy rate in Sydney was under 2% when we were living there but the market still went down while.
A few of our friends/ former coworkers who bought in 04/beginning of 05 in Sydney were taking paper losses of 15%+ when we left this year. Some of the exclusive area had fallen 20+ per cent in the last year we were there. Sydney and Melbourne were so over priced Australia’s version of Greenspan went on tv and urged young people to move to more affordable cities.
#173 Big new luxury rental is coming on line 50 storeies plus, on Barclay St in lower Manhattan.
Also the old Chemical Bank Bldg at 20 Pine St, right next to Chase plaza also 50 stories plus will be coming on line too. Originally condos, now being told they will be luxury rentals.
3B
That’s funny I thought the same thing -woh- never seen JB gets so down right nasty, Chi-fi hell yeah, but not him.
I guess he needs some more patience quotes.
Patience & Fortitude conquer all things.
Ralph Waldo Emerson
KL
#179 No I think he was entitled to that outburst, and then some.
He spends great time and effort compiling the data and presenting it in a clear and concise manner. To have it blown off like that by Richard would infuriate even the most patient and understanding.
Hi, been following for many months but today’s discussion of Manhattan and renting reminded me of what’s been on my mind.
Currently I’m renting a studio right next to my work in the Financial District and my building plans to convert to condo. So I’m weighing my options between renting near work by Seaport, or hopping over to JC or Brooklyn.
My personal calculus (as a data point) is that I’m willing to pay a “walking distance” premium for Downtown rental. However, it makes no sense to pay Manhattan price elsewhere (say, Midtown or Upper West) if I have to take the subway anyways–when I can just as likely stay on trainline in JC or Brooklyn.
I think ultiamtely where I stay will depend on how expensive Downtown gets. My current rent is 2000 for Downtown high-rise with doorman and gym, which I can do without. At some point, the difference across the river simply becomes too great.
So right now it looks like I’ll be leaving the island, if I can’t find a place in Financial District for 2000. As between Brooklyn (3-4 blocks less walk) or Jersey City (cheaper), the verdict is still out. But a cursory scan at $1400 (now that the $600 “walking distance” premium is removed) still would give me a bigger place near trainline whether I’m in JC or Brooklyn.
Just to share a random slice of a renter’s mind weighing his options.
Yes, I am one of those people who rents in Westfield. I have several friends who do as well. Richard is a fool to think that anyone judges us differently, because most people have no clue that we (or our friends) rent, and those who do know assume (correctly) that we are potential homebuyers and are waiting for the right house to come along (at the right price).
We happen to have an amazing deal on the north side of town for less than half of what we will eventually be paying in PITI. We have friends who rent in Wychwood. Their income is well over 1 mil.
Richard, get over yourself.
-PB
Another random data point: 99 John Street turning into a Condo. Ask for a 500 sq lower floor unit? $525,000.
No thanks.
Rob,
You are correct, that is the case NOW, it won’t be in ten-fifteen years when coal as a shipping fuel becomes increasingly more cheap/sensible as compared to petroleum based fuels. Essentially, you can run a train on a track using coal, you can’t run a truck with it on a highway.
Actually you don’t even need to use coal, you can use electricity generated from coal or another source if your tracks are lined properly.
From an infrastructure standpoint the railroads are pure gold. Its kind of like putting an investment into the interstate highway system in the early 50’s. I believe its a long-term play and a genius one.
Of course short term finance dudes probably think I’m nuts, there’s more oil in the ground than dirt and I should put my money in Wal-mart.
Richard …… I agree with you about being “tethered” and “anchored” to a community with home ownership. You tether animals when you want to keep them from being free them and you anchor ships that…can sink.
Sounds just like what home ownership! What’s that saying about misery and company?
Richard is just p1ssed off that his PITI payments are double the renters in Westfield who are making out at his expense and enjoying all the amenities though they are loser renters. Right, Richard?
Just like you always love to take digs at other people, don’t feel bad to be reminded of the sorry state you are in. Your comments (especially the one toward JB were absolutely uncalled for) reflect your morose frame of mind.
Rant off….
well boys and girls its over. Housing
stocks all come back today. Warren Buffet
calling a bottom. What a day for the
housing stocks.
go hov
You know, during the early 90s, when prices were lower, I knew a cardiologist and his family (including three children and dog) who rented for several years in my town – it was cheap, and they simply couldn’t find a house they liked. Whem they finally did, he and his family, Porsche in tow, moved in across the street and lived there for a number of years until they moved away. You can never assume you know the reasons why people rent, or that it makes them less of a part of the community or that it means they can’t afford to own.
What kills me is that across from me was a mansion owned by a prominent family for years until it went into estate sale…the good doc bought it because he was rich enough to…for 899. That thing is worth at least 2 million today.
#170 & #173
Looks like rents are trying to catch up to sale prices although rent vs. buy spread is still very high in Manhattan:
Upper East Side
Condos + Co-Ops
2Q07 Average Sales Prices
1BR $712,350
2BR $1,665,651
3BR $3,872,334
Source: Miller Samuel
Makes the average 3BR rent of $5,534 seem cheap!
NYC Market Report
http://www.prudentialelliman.com/NYCPhotos/retail_reports/mmo2q07.pdf
Don’t kid yourselves. For most people, buying a house really means renting from the bank.
#187 pesche: Nah its not over, its just getting interesting, expect to see a few of the big boys (home builders) fold before it is over.
“Don’t kid yourselves. For most people, buying a house really means renting from the bank.”
well yeah I guess; but you get to sell it when you leave.
Sounds about right, Hehehe. I’m a railroad fan myself, and often think how crazy it is to ship so much stuff over such long distances by truck. What a shame, all the right of ways that have been developed over the last couple decades. How many McMansions and split-levels will have to die to rebuild the rail infrastructure? :)
reserves is pushing nuke and now is rationing gas since they could build new refining capacity without all the political resistance.
Using oil to generate electricity is just plain stupid, which is why Iran wants nuclear power plants.
Home ownership vs. renting… it’s a lot like marriage vs. dating (or living together).
-P
Doyle Says:
July 13th, 2007 at 2:45 pm
“Doesn’t someone who posts here rent in Westfield? I thought somebody said that a while back.”
I am a long-term tenant in Westfield, believe it or not. Last week, my fridge started to go so I called my landlord. She had a new one delivered the next day, to my specs, and it’s a beauty.
We have a commuter parking space and were pool members for many years. We let it lapse, which was a mistake, and now it’s oversubscribed. We enjoy living here. We work in our own yard, clean litter from our gutter, and are otherwise responsible members of the community.
We have one well-adjusted teenager, a product of the public schools, which I highly recommend. Everyone we’ve met through the schools, both other parents who are mostly owners, and an occasional renter, have been fine, interesting people. Ditto for our neighbors, with two exceptions, which can happen anywhere, on any street. Most of the parents we encounter are professional and affluent, but so far none have balked at dropping their kid off to visit, and even entrusting them to my care for an afternoon. I’ve been a stay-at-home dad for 16 years, almost a pioneer, so to speak.
In the early days there were few of us on the playgrounds; now there are men all over the place with kids in tow in the parks, grocery stores, etc. at all times of day.
I’m also a private investor and part-time blogophile.
“For most people, buying a house really means renting from the bank.”
I have read seen this soundbite before. Renting from a landlord and borrowing from a bank are not the same.
The rising value of a home accrues to its owner, not the lender or the tenant.
And what other investment allows an individual investor to pay a capital gains tax rate of zero?
STATEMENT OF OFHEO DIRECTOR JAMES B. LOCKHART ON ISSUANCE OF LETTERS
BY FANNIE MAE AND FREDDIE MAC REGARDING NONTRADITIONAL AND
SUBPRIME MORTGAGE PRODUCTS
http://www.ofheo.gov/media/pdf/NTM.pdf
http://www.mckinseyquarterly.com/article_abstract.aspx?ar=2014&l2=10&l3=51&srid=403&gp=1
#198 When it rises
#198,
As long as one pays interest on a mortgage loan, one is “renting” money. The ultimate disposition of the asset is immaterial. Paying interest = renting money. Paying rent means you are a tenant.
I agree that borrowing $ is akin to renting $, but I disagree that owning a home with a mortgage equates to renting the home from a bank.
Real estate is my favorite asset type, in part because it is very financeable compared to financial assets or small businesses.
Mortgages have proven to be like rocket fuel for my net worth.
#197 Twice shy- I love that there are so many stay at home dads in Westfield. We have 3 couple friends who have stay at home dad arrangements. We have found people in town to be, for the most part, friendly and enlightened. Thankfully I have not come across anyone like Richard.
Two years ago I waited in line at 4 am to get our pool membership. My spouse and I joke that one of the reasons we plan to stay (and buy) in Westfield is because we cannot bear to go through that process again.
“The rising value of a home accrues to its owner, not the lender or the tenant.”
And what is the end result if we are in a period of declining prices for a number of years? How does one refinance if the appraisal, at adjustment time, comes in lower than the current mortgage? Does the homeowner rent money from another party to make up the difference and bring a check to closing or simply send back the keys?
“-(202)
twice shy Says:
July 13th, 2007 at 5:07 pm
#198,
As long as one pays interest on a mortgage loan, one is “renting” money. The ultimate disposition of the asset is immaterial. Paying interest = renting money. Paying rent means you are a tenant.”
Good stuff, I agree. These guys may have the right idea: http://www.wealthyconnection.com
Hey Jim,
I think I have got you beat for “mad-men and englishmen”. I hiked 3 miles to corona Arch in Moab,UT 3 days ago in 106 degree heat. How was your PHX hike?
..
BC Bob,
If I needed to sell my home at a time when the home’s value was less than the principal amount on the mortgage, then I would give the keys to the bank.
In California, a lot of people walk away from homes damaged during earthquakes and don’t have a problem getting a mortgage to buy a new one.
If I needed to sell my home at a time when the home’s value was less than the principal amount on the mortgage, then I would give the keys to the bank.
That sounds like the comment of a “tethered” well-regarded member of a community! Wow, I wanna be a homeowner!
On the manhattan and low vacancy debate…
I’m somewhat distrustful of the “average” manhattan rental prices, at least at the studio and 1BR level, bc thats where I’ve got lots of anecdotal evidence in many neighborhoods.
Basically, I think the numbers are crazily misleading based on the fact that the premium bw a “regular” and “lux” ie modern building + doorman, even within the same neighborhood, is huge. I live on the upper west side and pay $2800 for an old but good non-doorman 2BR with a not-old kitchen but no doorman. Meanwhile, my friend 2 blocks away with a gym/doorman/central air/modern building is paying $3600 for a small 1BR (no granite counters, even!).
Also the avg fails to take into account the huge number of ex-pats that are getting the royal treatment and are paying roughly $1000 month for $4000 per month studios, with the difference being subsidized by their companies. Yes, this number is relatively small, but my point is that a lot of people living in $4000 studios are getting subsidized somehow. So the avg for “real” people living in non-glamorous buildings should be brought down.
Of course, every once in a while the nytimes publishes a story about two girls fresh out of college earning $40K and $45K, respectively, at the publishing and PR companies they work for, living in a $4500 per month 2BR in the west village, so maybe I’m wrong about this. But again, these are not “real” people in my book.
OK that probably wasnt coherent but you get my point…
If I needed to sell my home at a time when the home’s value was less than the principal amount on the mortgage, then I would give the keys to the bank.
Bad karma leads to fat 1099s.
jb
OT-Container houses
On Inside Edition yesterday 7/12. A couple from Redondo Beach, CA built a 3,500 sq.ft. house from cargo containers. Estimated market value $1 mil. Cost to couple $500K. Nice.
How is the shore faring with the supposed real estate bubble. Anyone familiar with Long Beach Island and what the story is down there. A couple of years ago totally untouchable….still have a dream of owning a little house there someday.
grim,
unmoderate?
re 194
The problem with RR is that there is just not enough rail to handle a switchover to coal.
http://www.goldismoney.info/forums/showpost.php?p=662953&postcount=1
http://www.hobokenx.com/html/modules/newbb/viewtopic.php?topic_id=16955&forum=9
That was fun, J.B. Did you post all that stuff?
If not, Duck is still upset about posting all the facts about his house and then somebody putting in free advertising here for him.
Duck, you gotta get over things. What is the deal? You got so much free advertising and still can’t unload that checkbook drainer.
Yeah, relax Donald, you aren’t banned.. If you trip the moderation filter in quick succession you get tagged as a spammer. Unfortunately I’ve been getting spammed hard lately so I had to turn on the plug-ins. You get put into the spam queue, not the moderation queue, so I never saw your requests to to unmoderate. When I saw your post over at kannekt I checked and found you there. I’ll give you a hint if you’d like to stay out of it. Don’t submit comments that contain nothing but characters (periods, slashes, commas, etc).
jb
From BusinessWeek:
Mortgage giants tighten buying policies
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have tightened their policies for purchasing high-priced, high-risk home loans from lenders amid stress in the housing market.
The policies issued Friday by the two government-sponsored companies were in response to a directive from the federal agency that regulates the mortgage finance giants.
The new policies potentially involve billions of dollars worth of so-called subprime mortgages, those targeted to people with tarnished credit or low incomes who are considered greater risks. The policies spell out to banks and other lenders which mortgages Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will buy from them and which they will reject.
…
Their new policies, which take effect Sept. 13, call on lenders to exercise caution in making subprime loans and to evaluate more carefully borrowers’ ability to repay them.
In addition, lending institutions should ensure that their risk-management practices keep pace with the growth and shifting risk profile of the subprime mortgages they hold, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac said.
The head of the agency that oversees the companies, the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, called their actions “a significant step.”
From Michael Shedlock’s website:
Fitch Discloses Its Fatally Flawed Rating Model What follows are excerpts from Absence of Fear, an excellent article written by Robert L. Rodriguez at First Pacific Advisors.
We were on the March 22 call with Fitch regarding the sub-prime securitization market’s difficulties. In their talk, they were highly confident regarding their models and their ratings. My associate asked several questions.
FPA: “What are the key drivers of your rating model?”
Fitch: They responded, FICO scores and home price appreciation (HPA) of low single digit (LSD) or mid single digit (MSD), as HPA has been for the past 50 years.
FPA: “What if HPA was flat for an extended period of time?”
Fitch: They responded that their model would start to break down.
FPA: “What if HPA were to decline 1% to 2% for an extended period of time?”
Fitch: They responded that their models would break down completely.
FPA: “With 2% depreciation, how far up the rating’s scale would it harm?”
Fitch: They responded that it might go as high as the AA or AAA tranches.
Fatally Flawed Model
Essentially Fitch extrapolated a model of constantly rising home prices forever into the future, in spite of obvious signs of rampant speculation and home price appreciation far above the long term average for four consecutive years. In addition, Fitch made no allowances for reversion to the mean on home prices, in fact did not even make provisions for a flattening market let alone a reversion to the mean at a time of massively declining lending standards, and with home price appreciation orders of magnitude above affordability indices and rental prices.
That is some set of assumptions that Fitch made in their model isn’t it? One might think that those flaws are so obvious that anyone with any reasonable degree of competence would catch.
Absence of Fear Continues
The asset quality problems in sub-prime and Alt-A have the potential to affect other areas, such as the collateralized debt obligation (CDO) market, in ways that many of the holders of those securities have little idea of how exposed they might be to unexpected changes in the security’s credit rating. It is estimated that U.S. banks have invested as much as 10% of their assets in CDOs, and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) requires that all of those CDOs be investment grade, says Kathryn Dick, deputy comptroller for credit and market risk. She says, “We rely on the rating agencies to provide a rating.”
As Kevin Fry, chairman of the Invested Asset Working Group of the U.S. National Association of Insurance Commissioners says, “As regulators, we just have to trust that rating agencies are going to monitor CDOs and find the subprime.”
While so many investors and regulators are relying on these ratings, the rating agencies take the position, as exemplified by S&P, “Any user of the information contained herein should not rely on any credit rating or other opinion contained herein in making any investment decision.”
Sept. 1 approaches.
We’re about to see who the players really are.
Two VERY interesting meetings with 1M+ homeowners in Tewks today…the kind of guys who would’ve laughed in my face two years ago. Couldn’t have been nicer to me today.
Get ready for my version of toughlove, byatches.
Thank you JB. I never knew all of you guys read Kannekt. Quite different from the atmospehere on this site, huh?
Pat [220],
First time I have seen that site. How long until my posts will be deleted?
Ok, I have some info that I tried to post earlier, but got stuck in moderation. This is what I heard the potential buyer and agent saying. They did not know I was secretly listening.
Buyer: The price is high because, no matter how you look at it, the house is still a single family
Realtor: This house is going to sell fast so be prepared to pay full asking price
Now, before you start saying that my house is overpriced, consider this: These people have came to my house twice in a 2 week period. If my house is “overpriced,” um, why did you come for a second look?
Bob, are you kidding me?
I don’t even need to go into ‘boken and that site is still worth laughs. I love when CF posts his little pounder guy.
I wish I could smart up as well as you can dumb down for your audience. My downfall.
Pat,
No s*it, the first time. Although I have seen the name posted here, I popped it tonight. I posted twice there, my third did not go through. I guess I’m already banned.
testing
“The drop in inventory does pose a good question. If inventory or supply starts coming down, what happens to housing prices? The graph above shows the pace of inventory starting to come down.”
I think inventory is coming down because you have a lot of sellers who realize they are not going to get their price, so they withdraw the listing. Of course, these are the sellers who do not need to sell so time is on their side.
“time is on their side.”
That’s OK if you are the Rolling Stones. A seller? More like Chinese water torture.
“They did not know I was secretly listening.”
Need I comment?
BC Bob, great stuff over at that site. I think it’ll go over their heads, though.
Nobody is going to have a chance to read what BC Bob wrote because it will all be deleted first thing tomorrow morning. GUARANTEED!
#226 Clot
Recently, I was down in your area looking at some homes – very nice as you’ve mentioned, but what’s with that tightly packed development along Allen Road (in Bedminster? where 287 & 78 cross)? It seemed so out of character, it was a bit jarring. And actually, couldn’t believe the tax assmnt info on Zillow – those homes (townhouses/condos?) are not cheap – must be a tax windfall for whichever town it’s in, but those values seem totally out of whack.
-P
“A depreciating box with a roof”
BC Bob,
That’s a good one (from Kannekt). Your two posts are still up.
They’re calling you loony! Hope that’s not a swipe at the Canadian dollar.
BC,
Well there you have it, we now know what assumptions were modeled inside Fitch’s black box.
FPA: “What are the key drivers of your rating model?”
Fitch: They responded, FICO scores and home price appreciation (HPA) of low single digit (LSD) or mid single digit (MSD), as HPA has been for the past 50 years.
FPA: “What if HPA was flat for an extended period of time?”
Fitch: They responded that their model would start to break down.
FPA: “What if HPA were to decline 1% to 2% for an extended period of time?”
Fitch: They responded that their models would break down completely.
FPA: “With 2% depreciation, how far up the rating’s scale would it harm?”
Fitch: They responded that it might go as high as the AA or AAA tranches.
I can’t believe that adoptance of the Subprime and Nontraditional Guidance by Fannie and Freddie will not result in some number of potential buyers being removed from the pool. In fact, I wonder if the adoption of this guidance will impact the ability of these GSEs to comply with their secondary-market liquidity charter.
Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac tighten mortgage-buying
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac said Friday they will only buy mortgages that comply with guidance issued last year that requires strong underwriting standards for exotic loans like adjustable-rate mortgages and interest-only loans.
The companies’ regulator, the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, made the guidance applicable to Fannie and Freddie. James Lockhart, the Ofheo director, called the move by the companies “a significant step.”
“These actions reinforce the necessity for safe and sound underwriting practices, which serve the interests of lenders and borrowers in promoting sustained homeownership,” Lockhart said in a statement Friday.
Fannie and Freddie told lenders that underwriting standards must be “consistent and prudent.”
All nontraditional mortgages made on or after Sept. 13 will be subject to the new policies.
politely (238)-
That’s The Hills. A massive PUD, started in 1987 and finished in 2003. The Allen Rd. part is actually Bernards Twp. The stuff on the 287 side is Bedminster.
The whole Bedminster side is Christie Whitman’s old family estate. The hill- Schley Mountain- is named after them.
#242
Clot, what’s a PUD?
The hills look like nice townhouses, but I can’t imagine paying 500 to 600k for a townhouse in Somerset county!!!!
bairen (243)-
Planned unit development.
500-600K for a townhouse there is no big whoop. The townhomes that are way off Allen Rd and tucked into the fairways at NJ National go for 800K to 1M.
There are also plenty of SFH all over The Hills, too.
52 Franklin Place, Montclair:
OLP – $599,999
LP – $609,000
DOM – 5
That is correct, they RAISED the price approximately $10,000. They are probably getting multiple bids at asking so they decided to “test” the waters a bit.
They must have read that article in the NY times. We all know anything under 6 in Montclair is either junk or on the bad side of town.
jb
Gary,
Why not 5 Franklin? They’ve been chasing down the market since early 2005.
MLS# 2057711
Listed: 02/11/05
OLP: $1,749,000
Reduced to: $1,399,000
DOM: 212
Expired
Relisted as: # 2112538
Listed: 09/29/05
OLP: $1,349,000
Reduced to: $1,229,000
DOM: 182
Expired
Relisted as: # 2264768
Listed: 04/07/06
OLP: $1,229,000
Reduced to: $1,149,000
DOM: 122
Expired
Relisted as: # 2379060
Listed: 02/26/07
OLP: $999,999
DOM: 138
jb,
lol! Why, of course!
jb,
5 Franklin is out of my price range but WOW, an $800,000 drop!! This just illustrates how insane the sheep are.
You wouldn’t want it. Did you see 15 Fairmount (2422351)? IMHO, a much more desirable part of town.
jb
Clot:
It’s puzzling because if you look at the northern tip of The Hills, the very crowded housing there is in the mid $800s, and the houses on the other side of Douglas are about $1MM. From the aerial on Zillow, the houses across the street look like estates – can’t believe it’s less than $200k difference. They’re just assmnts not sales prices, but still, it just seems wrong.
If I haven’t said it before, I absolutely love this site. BTW, has a get together time and place been decided on yet?
Who’s Fannie Mae? and why does she own so much property in town? I’ve heard the name before, it sounds familar. She’s got couple properties for sale around here.
KL
Those townhomes on Allen Rd are beautiful. If I could afford them, I’d buy one in a heartbeat. Perfect location for me, I’ve always worked in Somerset county.
Lean times are a coming.
2008 a wonderful time to make a few purchases at clearance prices
Rollback to 2002 just around the corner.
hehehehehe
Babbabababa
BOOOOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAAAA
Bob
Lean time are already here for the Grubbing bunch starving friskie eating bunch the builders RE Specs and tradesman.
READ MY LIPS: It’s goign to get alot worse. Be prepared for lean times.
hehehehhehehe
BOOOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAAAAAA
Bob
twice [239],
The bells and whistles were going off on that site. The first time I was ever on it. There is a Loonie on the site. The perplexed poster had no idea what I was saying in my response. Loonie, CD, natural resources? Probably googling all nite. I thought Clot’s LOD’s was a classic. That just got pushed to the bench in favor of Loonie. Every renter is now officially a Loonie. Gotta luv it.
From the WSJ:
Mortgage Bets Trip Up Main Street Investors — And a Group of Nuns
Big investors aren’t the only ones getting burned by mortgage investments. Some brokerage firms who put their customers in risky mortgage investments now have small investors fighting to get their money back.
That includes customers of Irvine, Calif., brokerage firm Brookstreet Securities Corp., which shut down last month after the value of some of its mortgage securities fell sharply.
It also includes the Sisters of St. Joseph of Carondelet in California. The nuns thought they were making safe investments when they parked some of their money with Los Angeles-based Wedbush Morgan Securities.
Instead, they allege in documents in an arbitration complaint filed against Wedbush, they ended up with risky investments in mortgage-backed securities tied to mobile-home loans and lost nearly $1 million.
These are among several broker-fraud cases involving risky investments in mortgage securities that have been popping up in the past few years, according to complaints filed with the National Association of Securities Dealers, or NASD.
Ed Wedbush, president of the firm that handled the nuns’ investments, said in an interview that the losses in this and other cases came on the riskier portions of mortgage investments and were the result of “clients being very aggressive and wanting high yields.” They should have understood, he said, that “high yield is high risk.”
…
In a complaint filed with the NASD, the Sisters of St. Joseph of Carondelet allege Wedbush misled them about the value and risks of investments it made for them starting in 2002. These investments were called collateralized mortgage obligations, a kind of mortgage-backed security, in which mortgages are bundled together and then sliced by investment banks into pieces that bear different levels of risk.
“There’s some scary stuff out there,” says Philip M. Aidikoff, a Beverly Hills attorney who represents the sisters and other small investors who say they’ve lost money on similar products. The case will be heard in August by an NASD arbitrator in California.
Cars?
hehehehehehe
Bleed’em dry?
Motorcycles?
hehehehehehehe
Boats?
hehehehehehe
Houses?
hehehehehehehe
2008 Bleed’em Dry!
I am going to pick some bones in 2008. Mucho items on the list….hehehehehehehe
It’s payback time hear that show & tellers. Patience is worth alot of bucks. You must be rewarded for your time patience and prudent lifestyle.
bababbabababa
Can you say “depreciating” toys?
hehehehehehehehe
Going to have a collection of toys on the wish list within 2 years at Clearance prices
hehehehheheehehehe……………………………………………………………………
I am pumped thinking about it.
BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
Bob
A few Show & Tellers will be handing over the keys at clearance prices. They just do not know it yet.
hehehehehehehehehehe………………
JB [240],
So a math genuis fresh out of MIT does some data mining, sas and regression analysis. The models are written with assumptions that prices will continue going up, at least be stable as we move forward, based on the last 50 years. OK, the first 45 years will indicate appreciation at or near the rate of inflation. What assumptions were made regarding the insanity of the last 5 years? A 20 something quant has turned this charade upside down. How about I get a quant to write a new model depicting a decline of 5-7% over the next 5 years? I can show up at an open house and present my lowball supported by my blackbox. It will certainly give realtors something to chat about.
That’s 5-7% a year for the next 5 years.
“Boats? hehehehehehe”
[259],
bababababa,
I’m short boats, not luxury liners/yachts. Small craft.
All disclaimers.
“I can show up at an open house and present my lowball supported by my blackbox. It will certainly give realtors something to chat about.”
I read in the NY Times not too long ago about a woman who did this in Manhattan. She thought she was smarter than everyone else so she wrote an 11 page report explaining why the developer should accept her offer that was below asking price. The devleoper rejected it and sortly after, accepted an offer for full price from a different buyer.
The moderator locked the njrereport thread I created on Kannekt so nobody can respond to it anymore.
Troll [266],
Bunch of wimps.
By the way, I didn’t say bring an 11 page report. Just a blackbox.
What do you mean by “blackbox”?
“The hills look like nice townhouses, but I can’t imagine paying 500 to 600k for a townhouse in Somerset county!!!!”
So then come to Bergen County and pay $2 million for a townhouse! Go to Hudson County and the price increases to $3 million!
So?
jb
Bob [262]: Basically same inexperience of not having lived through any RE downturn.
“If you’re trying to build a new device…you need to know how it reacts in a whole [sic] bunch of circumstances…”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3HNGM-rje7U
How come that wasn’t done with mortgage pooling before the nuns bought the junk?
Krazy Kannekt Kondo Krash!
HA HA That was funny. I am still laughing at that.
BC (262)-
That’s why you can’t trust quants…on the way up OR on the way down.
Can’t run Fred & Ethel’s emotional and irrational behavior thru the Monte Carlo simulation.
But, Clot, you can.
Economics is a behavioral science.
You know, I’m not trying to second guess anybody with my perfect hindsight.
I know how difficult it is to have perspective when you’re up close and personal with a financial decision.
It’s even tougher when “everybody else” is doing it and “if we don’t do it, we’re not going to hit the numbers.”
But when you exhibit that behavior, you must go down with the ship. My gripe is with the folks who jumped into the life boats last year.
MLS#: 2403769
OLP – $699,000
LP – $599,000
DOM – 71
From absurd to laughable. Another cut of 100 large should do it.
jb,
Did 6 Allen Road in North Caldwell close? Can you tell me what the price was?
Thank you!
There are currently tons and tons of homes on the market in Spring Lake, NJ.
No information on how long on the market or prices, but we in about 3 square miles, we’ve seen at least 15-20 homes for sale. Most are probably in the 880k and up range (just a guess), but we were here two summers ago and there didn’t seem to be hardly as many FOR SALE signs.
Lots of people missed the boat here.
Gary,
MLS# 2366578
OLP: $779,000
LP: $749,900
SP: $735,000
CD: 06/26/2007
DOM: 81
Donald – I can’t believe you had the nerve to out Clot! That’s despicable and in incredibly poor taste!
Was it ever a secret?
jb
Sorry, was being sarcastic, it was in reference to Donald’s total shock that people would find his house on the MLS after posting very specific details here…
Intentionally violating someone’s privacy whether it is a ‘secret’ or not is highly unethical. I recall the whining from the current perp when his house was identified.
Clot you don’t look like what I expected. But then, I don’t know what I expected either.
jb #281,
Holy effin crap. I’d love to meet the bagholder that got hooked on that one. This house had some charm but definitely not for that price. I described it is a super-sized Shrek home. Rustic with some sort of Pond and stream running through it but definitely not practical and sits below road level. You have to pass by it to see what I mean. It doesn’t have a true living room and we looked at it for ha ha’s at an open house.
Good lord, I can’t believe somebody bought it for that price.
Thanks again, jb.
#118 JB:
i am on linked in. same email id i use for this blog.
O.K. It’s “Rate My Pic” on the NJREREPORT.
Clot needs to show more chest hair. A parrot on his shoulder, an eyepatch, and some Johnny Depp mascara couldn’t hurt with the house sales either.
I wonder if JB has any photos to share?
Sure..
https://njrereport.com/images/resagesbig.jpg
Sure would be nice to pick up a J42 at clearance prices.
My baby picture:
http://www.funpicsfree.com/photogallery/funny%20ugly%20pictures%20gallery/slides/Ugly_baby.html
jb,
I can’t seem to find anything on this site that explains who you are. I remember reading your site a long time ago and I seem to remember you describing yourself as a person who educated yourself so well in real estate just by looking (and renting) for a very long time. Are you an RE agent now?
PS…I have lots of relatives who are Bednars. Most of my Bednars grew up in Pittsburgh, but they started out in the East first. Ever done any family treeing?
JB,
A couple weeks ago or so you posted few links to sites to search for REOs and such. I meant to save them and I forgot. Any chance you could dig them up again?
Troll, a blackbox is an orange box used in aeroplanes.
“Troll, a blackbox is an orange box used in aeroplanes.”
I knew that! But why would someone bring a blackbox to an open house?
I will tell you who I am NOT:
I am NOT “a 24 yr old “Would-be Real Estate Mogul” from Sacramento. In flipping 8 homes, made “10 Mistakes”, with $2.2 million in debt, tried to stop foreclosure, looking to pay off debt, openly share mistakes and help others avoid foreclosure.”
Apparently not all buyers out there are smart. There is a guy on kannekt who just put a $5k deposit ona $777k condo in Jersey City thinking it will have a NYC view, but the view will be blocked by the new Goldman Sachs building. OOPS.
http://www.hobokenx.com/html/modules/newbb/viewtopic.php?topic_id=4437&viewmode=flat&order=ASC&start=370
Chuchundra, I tried posting those links from JB, but was moderated. The comment is in this thread/24:
https://njrereport.com/index.php/2007/06/27/separating-real-estate-fact-from-propaganda#comments
Pat,
If your watching the met game ( I am trying but its hard) If you see 3 very handsome fellows holding up a Kiner’s Korner sign, they belong to me. (-:
KL
‘Black box’ is used in analysis to describe a process whose internal workings are unknown but whose inputs and outputs are understood.
Nobdoy answered the question I posted yesterday. The buyers who came yesterday gave the impression that my house is overpriced, YET they came twice in a 2 week period. What gives? Is it common for buyers to view “overpriced” homes multiple times?
Wow, the RE market in Cresskill is totally shot! I have been following a few homes for over 6 months and none of them have sold. In this market, location does not have a large impact on whether a house is sold. The PRICE is what matters. A starter home in a “marginal” town will sell much faster than a McMansion in a “prestigious” town.
Robert Troll
If I were the buyer agent, with clients interested in your home, I would gladly take them back again and again, and each time I would hope you would overhear them say it is overpriced.
KL
I wonder what effect the rising real estate taxes in some bergen towns have on affordability. In this largely middle class borough we pay one of the highest tax rates in the state, and have experienced double digit increases for the past several years. Adding 800 to 1000 dollars for taxes to your monthly “nut” is painful. Does relative tax rates come into play for the first time homebuyer?
I saw this line in a property description on mls:
“Please call L/O confirm appt.. and leave your card..SUPRA”
Can anyone translate from Realtor dialect?
Thx,
AT
302 R Troll:
Interest in a house and wanting to see it a few times does not mean a house is overpriced. It shows an interest in the home, yet if no offer is given and the house has been on the market for a little while with no offers… it means the house is overpriced.
Perhaps if the price was re-evaluated, the couple would “pull the trigger” on what could be the house for them if it was within their value/price range.
Gary #292-
You must be really handsome today, given those genes, you can’t miss. I want your phone# :)
Usually those kinds of statements appear in the agent remarks section of a listing. All apply to the agent showing the property. L/O – Listing Office. SUPRA is the lockbox.
Sent you an invite.
jb
I don’t think price is a factor for the couple who made the comments. They said “The house is expensive because, no matter how you look at it, it is still a one family.” Obvivously they are in the market for a 2 family so that might be what is stopping them from making an offer.
oaklander,
you pay one of the highest taxes so that you the wealthy residents in Alpine, Saddle River, and Franklin Lakes can pay the cheapest taxes in the state.
# 302.
They’re waiting for you to lower your price. They probably have a number in mind or have seen comps that would suggest a lower price. I’m doing the same thing but there just is no DECENT inventory in upper Bergen County towns along the train lines.
The only comps I see are those that suggest a HIGHER price. I do not see comparable homes selling for less, except for one specific house in THAT part of town. I would rather leave the country than live in THAT part of town.
I noticed the arguments between the Hoboken Yuppies and the people who post here. I live in Hoboken (and rent here because I’m looking to buy in BC). Don;t listen to these yuppies.
First, none of them grew up in Hudson County and none of them know better to walk around the project on Jackson St.
Second – Take care of your own kids! You should see the number of kids being taken care of nanny’s during a work day.
Third – Who really is getting ripped off. Hoboken yuppies pay upwards of $10k in taxes for one of the worst school systems in the country.
Fourth – Just because you drive a BMW (leased) dosen’t determine the size of your manhood.
If they are wating for me to lower my price, they will be waiting a LONG time. Most comparable homes are lsited for $50,000 + than mine. I would like to know where they are getting their numbers from because it sounds like they are pulling them from out of their a$$.
Those Hoboken yuppies are quite obnoxious. They live in NJ for one reason and one reason only: They can’t afford Manhattan. Give them some money, and they will leave in the blink of an eye. Hoboken will become a ghost town.
Troll boy,
They also might be taking a second look just to take a second look. My realtor tells me to see a house at least twice before making an offer.
Its a transient town with no soul anymore but it won’t be ghost town. As long as there are jobs in NYC, Hoboken will be just fine.
I serioualy do not think my house is overpriced. I have been getting lots of calls from realtors recently. The interest is there. However, buyers do not want to make an offer because they don’t want to buy today and then see their property value go down tomorrow.
Also, some people who really liked my home can’t buy it because they have to sell their house first. I get this situation A LOT.
In fact, I think I heard the buyers talking about selling their house so if they are sitting on an unsold house, I could not care less about what they think my house is worth!
buyers do not want to make an offer because they don’t want to buy today and then see their property value go down tomorrow.
Robert Troll,
Sell your house today at what others believe prices will be tomorrow. Who knows, you might be able to make a sale and stop posting about your house all the time. It’s getting boring.
Pat,
RE: (299)
Thanks muchly!
‘boken (284)-
You can’t out somebody whose life is an open book (like me). Thanks for your concern, but I’ve always submitted posts with either my website or my blog tacked on. I don’t mind anyone taking a look into anything I do or checking me out further; in fact, I invite it. I don’t troll here for business, and I won’t take on a poster here as a client or accept compensation- for any reason- from anyone I meet here. Anyone at this board who contacts me for RE help will either get advice for free…or, I’ll refer you to another agent.
It’s funny that many of us have recently started to poke around other parts of the bubble blogosphere. I think I speak for many of us in saying that the other RE blogs out there are either so anti-homeownership as to be pure Bolshevik…or so stridently bullish that all opposing views are censored and dismissed (a la
Kannekt).
It’s a pity that our resident waste-of-bandwidth troll believes that outing an already-public person is either clever or groundbreaking. It’s pathetic that this same person wailed like a wildebeest in the jaws of a croc when the details of his own mulitple-listed home hit this board.
Sorta makes you wonder what kind of piteous self-loathing is going on in his head.
Troll,
There’s a better chance of you selling your house for 900k than Clot seeking/trolling for business on this site. If you read his posts from day 1 you would not make such an moronic statement. That said, he has the best realtor blackbox in the state. Why is he moving property while your realtor is being toyed with? You want to know what a blackbox is? Better question, why does Clot’s blackbox tick while your realtor’s blackbox is fractured? No wonder you can’t sell your house. Didn’t your realtor give you a blackbox presentation? Forget about me explaining a blackbox. Your situation is much more pressing. How does one sell a house, in Bergen County, without utilizing a blackbox?
From the North Bergen Reporter:
North Bergen sells condos in auction
North Bergen’s Board of Commissioners unanimously approved the sale of five condominium units that were taken by the township in foreclosure proceedings after a public auction last Tuesday.
The resolutions on the property sales were passed during the regularly scheduled Board of Commissioners’ meeting Wednesday morning.
According to township financial officer Robert Pittfield, the five condo units – two on 74th Street, one on 73rd, one on 48th and another on Bergenline Avenue – became township property after foreclosure proceedings were instituted when the previous owner failed to pay property taxes.
From the APP:
Where to invest if your home equity evaporates
If you can’t depend on your home equity increasing during a U.S. housing downturn, where do you turn for growth?
U.S. bonds offer cold comfort. With ultra-safe six-month Treasury Bills yielding as much as 5 percent, your real return is paltry after inflation and taxes.
What about U.S. stocks? The specter of a housing recession, consumer slowdown and more ugly surprises in the subprime mortgage market weighs heavily on Wall Street now. That leaves a compelling investment typically neglected by most investors: non-U.S. stocks with high dividends.
Since the U.S. home market may get blistered further by a general economic decline, more houses coming on the market or bond yields surging, you will need to find growth elsewhere. If you haven’t considered how the global economy is propelling emerging markets, it’s time to take a hard look.
#316,
Your’re obnoxious, I know of many Hoboken residents, including myself that would not leave the town even if Manhattan apartments were free. So there goes your theory.
300 KL
One of the downsides to PA for us…blacked-out games.
We have mlb.com subscriptions. We have the cable digital sports package.
Last night, we had no Mets.
Inventory in NJ hit another all time high last week of 98K, it keeps going up and up and up. Does anyone see an end to this nightmare anytime soon?
re323
I had no worry that the identification would affect you, since I knew your history here and also had no expectation that the comment would have any effect on the poster since he has shown himself impervious to any sense.
The only way that inexperienced posters can learn the still developing rules of blettiquite is for others to object when they see posts that they think cross the line.
The lack of self-discipline and ethical ignorance so commonly exhibited in blog communications really hamper its development potential. Since we do not have the threat of editors to assist as in newspaper letter sections, all that is available is information and shame.
If anyone is looking for something different to do this afternoon:
22nd Annual North Jersey Cycling Classic
Park Ridge is one of the more spectator friendly races in Northern NJ.
jb
That’s it, if Donald raises his asking price one more time I’m picking up and moving to North Carolina!
jb
The brochure in the link says to go to the site for directions, but no such directions are apparently avalable there. These things always make me wonder whether the person putting the site together ever looks at the results.
‘boken…weren’t there always benefits to accomodating the “wayward and obstinant individual” in groups?
Kind of like in a democracy? You know, THOSE benefits?
Duck may not be the class clown with the theory of relativity hidden inside him, but patience, inclusion and tolerance have a way of attracting positive.
E ‘b,
Doesn’t surprise me. The NJ cycling scene is typically geared towards the racers, not the spectators, as few events get any real turnout (aside from Somerville).
The course runs on Kinderkamack, Perryland, Park, and Broadway. Perryland is a steep hill, and is my own favorite location to watch from. The start/finish is on Kinderkamack.
The race will go on, rain or shine, so you might want to bring an umbrella if things start to look stormy around noon.
I’ll be there with my wife and dog. Just look for the couple with the white Boxer.
jb
JB,
I just might have to stop by to say hi.
My wife and I just had a baby boy on Thursday and I need a little sanity time away from home (not from the baby, from the mother-in-law).
Let me know if you change your mind.
Rich
PS I’ll be the guy with dark circles under his eyes carrying a few extra pounds of “sympathy” weight.
Re post 19:
I have no inside information here, but I do have an off the wall guess.
The person who gathers the data for the three PA counties for Realtytrac quit early in the month and wasn’t replaced.
I have no idea if that actually happened, but it certainly would explain what happened there.
From the Sunday Times. Another foreclosure – sealed bid auction.
http://realestate.nytimes.com/sales/detail/403-800509
My wife and I just had a baby boy on Thursday
Congratulations!
jb
Rich NNJ,
Congrats. A bubble baby? I imagine he will be pulling down comps in about 6 months. Tell the outlaw to take a chill pill.
Thanks guys!
Papapapapa Panic.
No wind in sail.
babababababa
‘Property values are melting like ice cream, and no one knows how far they will drop. The only way to attract buyers is to keep moving the asking price below the rest of the pack.’”
Baaaaaaaaaaaaaa!
Baaaaaaaaaaaaaa!
Follow the leader down.
hehehehehehehehe………….
Though a recently released state analysis of the Edison Police Department recommended eliminating high-paid supervisory positions to save taxpayer money, a review of the department’s payroll shows that more than half of the township’s 212 officers make more than $100,000.
“These are the highest salaries I have heard of for a municipality,” said Michael D. Lyman, criminal justice professor at Columbia College of Missouri, and author of textbooks on police departments and practices. “Taxpayers in the community would be surprised to learn what the comparable salaries are for other municipalities.”
In nearby Woodbridge, which ranks second in population after Edison in Middlesex County, about 22 percent of the department’s 202 officers earn more than $100,000. In Old Bridge, the third-largest Middlesex County town, 10 percent of its 108 officers earn more than $100,000. For both towns, all of those making over that mark hold supervisory ranks of sergeant or higher.
Among the 108 members in Edison’s $100,000 club, however, 49 are rank-and-file officers without supervisory roles. Five of Edison’s seven police captains earn $152,889 each, the highest township employee salary — and more than the chief and a deputy chief for the department who supervise them.
http://www.nj.com/news/ledger/middlesex/index.ssf?/base/news-2/1184474122255840.xml&coll=1
re 334
It seems to me that allowing such junk to be posted is quite enough accomodation. To not resist would be foolish and self-defeating.
Don’t know how I missed this one on Friday. CSBS adoption is significant because it is a preliminary step in adoption of the subprime mortgage guidance on a state level.
From Reuters:
States to roll out subprime guidance for brokers
U.S. state officials plan to issue guidance next week to tighten subprime mortgage lending by brokers and originators not regulated by the federal government, the Conference of State Bank Supervisors said on Friday.
Officials at CSBS, a group representing state regulators, said so far about 27 states and the District of Colombia plan to adopt the guidance within 48 hours after it is issued on Tuesday. No state has indicated that it will not eventually adopt it, they said.
Awesome, Rich. You must feel great, despite Mom and the exhaustion.
For the summer-dreaming river guy, I saw this REO bargain. There’s a public launch right down the road.
http://tinyurl.com/3y9dt3
I’d guess you might offer 295 right now. Lotsa peeps around here have flood fear right now. Too many in the last few years.
“Sell your house today at what others believe prices will be tomorrow. Who knows, you might be able to make a sale and stop posting about your house all the time. It’s getting boring.”
Yo know, a year or two ago, a study was done. It comapred home prices for homes that are owned by realtors and those that are not. It found that, despite taking longer to sell, realtors sold their own homes for more emoney than homes not owned by realtors. Which route do you think I am planning to take???
“According to township financial officer Robert Pittfield, the five condo units – two on 74th Street, one on 73rd, one on 48th and another on Bergenline Avenue”
Figures. The foreclosed condos were in the ghetto part of North Bergen. Condos on River Road do not go into foreclosure.
“I don’t troll here for business, and I won’t take on a poster here as a client or accept compensation”
Are you sure about that? I have a house. Sell it and you get $40,000 in commission!
“How does one sell a house, in Bergen County, without utilizing a blackbox?”
I do not know. Maybe the same way I sold an apartment in Manhattan without a blackbox???
Hey JB,
Did you know that according to Alexa 1.8% of your traffic comes from Iran?
http://alexa.com/data/details/traffic_details?url=njrereport.com
Oh, I forgot to tell everyone that some buyers came today. They were very interested. They were here for about half an hour. They were talking in the back yard so, unfortunately, I did not hear what they were saying. I should really install hidden microphones in my house…..
“That’s it, if Donald raises his asking price one more time I’m picking up and moving to North Carolina!”
Goodbye! We will miss you:
http://www.delta.com/booking/retrieveFlights.do?dispatchMethod=retrieveFlights&hiddenFieldsId=26y9vaPcqpAkogV&checksum=1827529062&tSession=26y9vaPcqpAkogV&UIStatus=P&ts=1184525142630#top
Thanks Pat!
Now that I’m over the fear… it IS awesome!
You’re right about the exhaustion. I’ve had a total of 6 1/2 hours in the past 3 nights. I feel for my poor wife.
Rich
Yo know, a year or two ago, a study was done.
The point of the study was that agents would take the time to market their home compared to pushing the sale of their clients in order to get the comission money.
It didn’t say that by keeping their house on the market for a long time the agent would get “his price”.
Troll (352)-
I’ve seen your house. It is unsellable as currently offered. You are wasting your time and ours with your charade.
If I were your agent, I’d pull the sign out of the ground and withdraw the listing on my own.
[122] [229]
Here is my question. If the house is “overpriced,” um, why did you come back for a second look.
Robert T,
I went 5 times to see a house that I was very interested in, but did not in the end make an offer. That is because I realized that the seller, who really loved her house and had raised her family there, was too emotionally involved with the property to entertain realistic offers. She was making the mistake of associating the price tag on her house with the value of the memories it holds for her. I kept waiting for her to come to her senses and lower the price — or at least give some hint that she might entertain an offer lower than asking. She didn’t.
Thus, I bought another property. I think the sellers of my new house were just as emotionally attached to their house as the first seller. But they were clear-sighted enough to realize that their sentiments had no bearing on the house’s monetary value. Nor did they make the mistake of associating the price of their house with their value as human beings.
In the end, the buying or selling of a house is a business transaction. The market will bear what the market will bear.
~ Cass
OK JB, you said:
My sister-in-law moved from Warren County to Middlesex … Her mother-in-law is an agent…
Aren’t you saying your Mom’s an RE agent?
Are you just another part of the BORG, man?
Re post 53:
Sapiens,
Before getting caught up in the mumbo-jumbo, the NYT is not a relevant source of news for anyone who really cares about a topic, and the vast majority of the analysis they provide is as deep as a sidewalk puddle.
The Times is pretty much irrelevant as a news source, it’s value is as an indicator of what people with power think is important, or want to think is important.
I’m guessing you’re just tangentially interested in housing and I would bet you have found very little of substance or interest in the pages of the Times in recent months because you already got the info some place else.
While blogs such as this one still rely heavily on newspapers, more and more the references are going to move to the original source. Why link to what AP, Reuters, or Bloomberg says about RealtyTrac’s foreclosure #s when you can link right to RealtyTrac, or the NAR, or MBA etc.
Or, as JB does with the GSMLS numbers,compile the raw data yourself and put it out there.
Newspapers are surviving on inertia and inefficiencies, but, they’re losing ground, mostly because they suck. They don’t give you much worth paying for. (BTW, as a guy who worked at newspapers for 15 years, it breaks my heart to say that.)
Finally, That Reason thing was sort of a one-off trick more than anything else. Part of what made it possible was the magazine had fewer than 50K subscribers. I know because I was one of them. It was still pretty cool though.
Re post 120:
skep-tic
Richard is a monkey flinging his poo at the wall. Sometimes, something sticks, but it’s more chance than design.
The reason you don’t need to defend him is because he is indefensible. Whatever gibberish you spent time making sense of was just part of the random noise he’s making.
He’s like that guy who shows up to neighborhood barbecues that no one can stand, but everyone is to polite to tell to stay away. He says something he thinks is provocative, but it’s just idiotic and to prove it he’ll disagree with himself 20 minutes later and point to it as evidence for his original argument.
“I sold an apartment in Manhattan without a blackbox???”
Troll,
Not surprising since you don’t need a blackbox to sell in Manhattan, at this time. Hell, you didn’t need one in NJ up until the CDO crash. It’s too bad that Clot would not entertain the thought of listing your house. I hear he has the most sophisticated blackbox in Jersey at this time. No wonder he is moving inventory. July, 2007 and your realtor is not utilizing one? I’m sure he is, he probably forgot to mention this to you.
“or at least give some hint that she might entertain an offer lower than asking.”
That is a dumb strategy… seing a house 5 times. Just put an offer in for below asking price and see what happens. Don’t try to read the seller’s mind. In many cases, you will never see the seller so there is no mind to read.
“If I were your agent, I’d pull the sign out of the ground and withdraw the listing on my own.”
I have never met an agent who turns down a listing. 99% of realtors do not turn down listings, regardless of price. Many realtors send me letters in the mail, call on the phone, and ring the bell begging to list my house!
And how have you seen my house? That is creepy. Oh, that’s right, you saw 6 photos of it in the NJMLS. Yeah, like that is the same thing as actually seeing it.
Clot,
Did you ever think that you are biased against my price due to the fact that you sell houses in a substantially cheaper market? I took a look at some of your listings and, put them in Bergen County, they would be at least double the price. What do you know about Bergen County real estate? Please do not compare my house to a comparable one in Branchbug. Yes, if my house was in Somerset County, it would be overpriced. But I am in Bergen County! You know nothing about the market in northern NJ. You would not last a day in Bergen. You would get chewed up and spit right out!
It is no wonder that all of the local realtors I know live in $1 million + homes.
jb,
Sorry for being a pest…
Can you give me the scoop on this listing:
11 Coventry Road, Wayne
Thank you!!
Will…not…feed…the…troll…
Clot, some of the most frustrated professionals are teachers.
They just don’t see the end results of their efforts, which stinks.
You’re used to effort=reward.
It’s there.
Hey Rich – Congratulations!! You have now achieved immortality – you have a child. Enjoy every single minute with your baby – he will be out of the house before you know it. You won’t believe this now because you are sleep-deprived, but from this moment on, time will speed up dramatically.
Housing recession seems over. Friday’s action on home builder indicates… grap a piece of property before it takes off
“Housing recession seems over.”
Although, very late to the game, Fitch, Moody’s and S&P, don’t seem to agreee with you.
Be nice to Richard. He is a lot smarter than most people here!
bi 375,
Housing recession is declared “over” based on the events of a single day?
Rich in NNJ
Congratulations! Much health and happiness. And nap whenever possible!
Troll (371)-
Hey j-off…I already have turned down a listing from this board. Zac of Asbury Park, are you around to confirm?
BTW, I turn down listings all the time. I don’t take listings to have listings; I take listings to sell them. If I don’t think I can sell a listing, I don’t take it. I also don’t “buy” listings; in my book, that’s one of the most despicable things an agent can do. When you engage in such a practice, you either end up admitting to your client that you lied to him…or, your client figures it out on his own.
Has your current agent admitted that to you yet? Have you figured it out yet?
Please explain to me what the homebuilder stocks have to do with the resale market.
jb
Aren’t you saying your Mom’s an RE agent?
Wife’s sisters husband’s mother.
jb
Donald,
I’m going to have to ask you to refrain from discussing your house on this site. If it sells, *I* will let everyone know both the sale date and sale price.
jb
Did you know that according to Alexa 1.8% of your traffic comes from Iran?
Google analytics gives me an entirely different breakdown. I’ll share it if anyone is interested.
jb
Gary,
37 Days on Market
OLP: $659,000
LP: $649,000
Purchased 10/2003 – $492,000
jb
From NorthJersey.com:
Zoning didn’t justify high price
The listing: Four-bedroom, 2½-bath stucco colonial
Location: Hackensack
…
On the market: 420 days
Asking price: $1.05 million, later reduced to $680,000
…
Fu advertised the property on the Internet and in newspapers and real estate magazines. He also held more than 20 open houses. After the asking price was cut, another agent brought in a buyer.
The result: The house sold for $595,000.
Hi all – question for anyone out there… Wife and I are seriously thinking about leaving NJ once and for all. Just tired of looking at overpriced junk. Wife went to school in PA and we were looking into the Philly ‘burbs. I know nothing about there area so does anyone know of any places with info on Havertown, Ardmore, Drexel Hill, Villanova? any help at all is appreciated. thanks!
Poor Renter
I have to admit the people here have been suggesting I consider moving. And I really resisted. But right across the Deleware river near a couple decent sized hosptials there are houses in the 50-100K range just right for me.
I’m not saying I am going yet, but in a couple years when I want a bigger place and no upstairs neighbors I think it’s close enough to visit old friends and mom on LI as well as giving me the chance to be mortgage free.
R Patrick,
Where across the river?
>>He’s like that guy who shows up to neighborhood barbecues that no one can stand, but everyone is to polite to tell to stay away. He says something he thinks is provocative, but it’s just idiotic and to prove it he’ll disagree with himself 20 minutes later and point to it as evidence for his original argument.
now that was a good one. thanks for the joke! i have no idea why i’m bothering even responding, but here i am. contrary to your blind viewpoint everyone in fact loves me except it seems some bubble believers which comprises such a tiny fraction of the populace. wish i could’ve responded sooner but i’ve just come from my 3rd bbq/party this weekend. i’m such a loser i was double booked on one.
I looked up by Poconos Medical Center since I am going to start looking at near the border facilites.
The zipcode from the Hospital site,
Stroudsburg, PA 18301 on Realtor.com has shows a bunch of small houses for under 100K. And then a whole lot of nicer ones as well for more money.
And then started out from there. It was just thinking “OK I really want to try and decouple from the hate and jealousy I am exibiting because my standard of living is so inferior to all those around me, and I never even wanted a Benz or Lexus before moving in. Let’s not even go into the cost of housing.”
But part of me also just hates this environment so I am starting to think about where I can move next. I will have to sell my apartment which might be a pain. But I figure if everyone else wants 80K and I list for 50-60K someone will be interested.
I figure live it up a bit and save some more money and goto grad school and then move. If I don’t have a mortgage who cares how much I make.
Reech: I am in a charitable mood. I wish to offer you an option. One of you or duck is going to be stuck with the moniker “bat guano” – “Guan” for short….I will give you the option of declining it and instead passing it off to duck. Your choice.
“Donald,
I’m going to have to ask you to refrain from discussing your house on this site. If it sells, *I* will let everyone know both the sale date and sale price.
jb”
Thanks JB for doing this. As much as I ignore this nincompoop’s blabberings, it’s becoming a bit of a nuisance when he goes on and on about his POS not selling. I am guessing some other’s might be feeling the same way too.
Duck
Relax. This is not real life. It is the internet. Turn off the computer. Go find yourself a nice bottle of red wine. Turn on some smooth jazz, and think happy thoughts.
duck, by default you are Guan…..to quote John Huston “you did it the old fashioned way….you EEAAARNNED it”
Duck
Turn on some Chet Baker
Open up a bottle of Annabella Napa Valley Cabernet. It is a great value at $12.
And go to sleep happy
Troll: “Maybe I would have NEVER mentioned my specific house had you guys not plastered it all over this site. You brought this upon yourselves. I never had any intentions of sharing any specific information.”
I’m sorry. I can’t take it anymore. I barely ever post here, but it used to be good, informative reading (thanks, JB!) and a place to get additional info when I needed it. This Donald character is ruining the intellectual value of this blog. Please see posts 47, 71, 72:
https://njrereport.com/index.php/2007/05/30/mortgaging-their-futures#comments
I think you will find that they are your first posts, Donald. So stop crying and go home.
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/JubaksJournal/DeepeningDebtCrisisHitsCloseToHome.aspx
– a really nice summary/explanation of what effects subprime mortgages can have on Wall St.
sl
While I found the posts repetitive, they seem a classic case of the power of denial.
Whether the property ever sells or not, it is plain for all to see why the down part of these corrections takes so long. Are there any gambits that were not tried or contemplated?
…or just a troll….I find the potential of genuineness in the posts dubious….
Hi JB – Where can I get the sales/inventory figures for the Middlesex and ~Mercer counties (Similar to what you have been doing for the Northern NJ) ? Do you know of anyone that is tracking the data ?
Thanks
Poor Renter
My choice for over the border is West Chester area. It’s just west of “Main Line”.
Sophisticated area, college town and RE is 40% less than NJ suburbs. Much less pricey than “Main Line”. Everything else across river is either semi-rural or red necky. I know all areas in that neck of the woods, it used to be my territory.
Havertown and Drexel Hill are working class to middle-class towns.
Ardmore is a split town; mostly a nicer, affluent area with some ghetto areas.
Villanova is an affluent to extremely affluent area; downsides would be proximity to I-476 and college students renting in the area.
“..anyone know of any places with info on Havertown, Ardmore, Drexel Hill, Villanova? any help at all is appreciated. thanks!”
I lived in St. David’s for a few years, and Paoli for a few years..maybe 4 years.
What kind of info are you looking for?
Re #401. What am I looking for? Information like is found here. Obviously hard to find this sort of quality of info anywhere but knowing about re-listing, low-ball pricing, growth in inventory, taxes vs. value, etc is what I would like to get my hands on.
Poor, I don’t know any JBs of the Main Line.
But the information is there if you start tracking it. Zillow has the final sales in arrears 3 or 4 months. You can find a listing by address by using kw, then look up the comps on zillow. Get all comps, then click on the comp by date column header for most recent first.
If you go to dogpile and search Chester County Real Estate Transactions [or Delaware or Montgomery County Real Estate Transactions], you’ll see the link to the Inquirer’s weekly sales list, as well from www. philly .com [spaces inserted to avoid moderation]. Detail your search by including a date format of 07/08 at the end. You can find the history for months and months. Again, in arrears.
You can also get a feel for the relistings by tracking two RE sites, but you’ll have to do it for a while. I don’t want to post the ones I use or it would be advertising, but there’s a particular database administrator used by some offices in PA that makes it easy. You do your search, click on all the listings, and then whenever a listing has a change (price, etc.) it appears in a different color. I would give you the link but then I’d have to kill my cat.
Also, when you find a listing that catches your eye, go to the County sheriff’s sale list to be sure it’s not on the block. There should be the listings, updated at least weekly for the next four month’s of sales. [Note, spaces inserted] http : //www .co.delaware.pa.us /sheriff/realestate. html
If I were green out there, I’d rent for a year within a two block walk of a station, and make it a priority to get to know people. Go into local car insurance business and chat up the person in the office, things like that.
Lots of those towns have beautiful and inexpensive rentals in huge homes that have been converted into 2 or 3 apts.
Or, entire homes if you want to pay more:
http://philadelphia.craigslist.org/apa/372105936.html
Poor, I responded, but JB will need to release that one, I guess.
Pat:
Thanks! Much appreciated.
#21–Marito. About the Montclair tax reassessment. It is effective as of now (third quarter). The new rate is about 2.15 of the new assessment. Many people in town are discovering their taxes are actually going down because of the assessment. Of course, there’s no guarantee that that’s the case for the property that interests you. But you don’t have to worry about paying the OLD rate on the NEW assessment. Not happening!