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Northern Rock shares plunge 21%
Shares in one of the UK’s largest mortgage lenders, Northern Rock, were down by 21% after the Bank of England decided to offer it emergency funding.
From Bloomberg:
Northern Rock Gets Emergency Bank of England Funding
Northern Rock Plc got emergency funding from the Bank of England, the biggest bailout of a British lender in 30 years, after a freeze in money markets left the mortgage provider unable to finance itself.
Northern Rock shares plunged as much as 26 percent to a six- year low after the company said today the central bank will provide an unspecified amount of credit. The Newcastle, England- based bank is the U.K.’s third-biggest lender by gross mortgages with loans worth 17.4 billion pounds ($35 billion) as of June 30.
The rescue stoked concern among investors and depositors that other financial firms that rely on short-term credit rather than deposits may be vulnerable. The Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling authorized the move, saying the Bank of England will step in as the lender of last resort “where institutions face short-term liquidity difficulties.”
“This is a set of circumstances that I’ve not seen in 25 years,” Chief Executive Officer Adam Applegarth said on a call with journalists. “It’s a substantial program, it is at a penalty rate. The facility will provide a solid ground base.”
BOE funding? Did Mervyn King have a bad dream last night? Maybe too many bitters? What happened to “there will be no bailouts”. I guess nerves are rapidly increasing across the pond.
From the WSJ:
Expert on Housing Has Her Own Nest
Ivy Zelman, the former housing analyst at Credit Suisse who warned about trouble in the housing market months before the downturn, has started her own housing-related research firm geared toward institutional investors such as hedge funds, mutual funds and banks.
Ms. Zelman says her new firm, Zelman & Associates, will assess the risk of bankruptcies in the housing industry, examine the turmoil in the mortgage market and dispense research about the housing downturn’s broader impact on the economy and consumer spending.
“This recession in housing is more severe than the 1990 and 1991 downturn,” Ms. Zelman said in an interview. “It could have a much broader impact on the economy than people realize, and it will be longer in duration.”
Ms. Zelman, 41 years old, says proposals to bail out struggling homeowners might help, but “I don’t think it will do enough to forestall the inevitable: that the consumer is going to roll over.”
…
Ms. Zelman was one of the first Wall Street analysts to warn about issues that could sink the housing industry, such as a flood of speculators buying new homes, an oversupply of land and problems posed by subprime mortgages. She questioned bullish home builders, who believed home sales would keep booming, and asked one chief executive during a conference call last December, “I am wondering which Kool-Aid you’re drinking?”
Ms. Zelman was ranked the top home-builder analyst in The Wall Street Journal’s 2006 “Best on the Street” analyst survey. Before Credit Suisse, she worked at Salomon Brothers (now part of Citigroup Inc.), first in investment banking and later as equity analyst, focusing on housing.
#2,
Can anyone explain why do they even bother rescuing these guys? It’s a lost cause.
Why the BoE when they could have taken the wise route:
http://www.ricflairfinance.com/
hehe [6],
LMAO.
Don’t worry, be happy. I’ve been saying forever, a much bigger issue than an overpriced, overbought box. However, the consequences will eventually bury RE.
“On Thursday, the dollar briefly fell to another low against the euro of $1.3927, as a slow decline that has been under way for months picked up steam this past week.”
“This is all pointing to a greatly increased risk of a fast unwinding of the U.S. current account deficit and a serious decline of the dollar,” said Kenneth Rogoff, a former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund and an expert on exchange rates. “We could finally see the big kahuna hit.”
“When a currency collapses, the central bank can push up interest rates to attract needed investment, but strangle the economy in the process. Alternatively, it can let the currency fall and watch prices of imports – and eventually competing domestic goods – rise sharply.”
“Put another way, at a time when the psychology of crisis has gripped financial markets, intangible attitudes toward the dollar have become all the more important. And with growth strong elsewhere in the world, there are appealing places to go besides the dollar.”
http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/09/13/news/econ.php?page=1
Anyone familiar with chatham know what’s wrong with this house?
MLS: 2427883
139 CANDACE LANE, Chatham Twp. (2305)
http://tinyurl.com/ypx9xr
Seems like a decent house and I have seen crap go into contract at higher prices. This is currently listed at $859K down from $885K.
The DOM is crap as this thing has been relisted more than once if I remember.
GSMLS at 35,814.
That’s about 700 more in a about a week. Is this normal to see inventory increase after the season?
Anti [9],
Under a mil and relisting lower in the Twp? Wow. It looks like a gem.
#10 Anti: Early Fall sell/buy before the holidays period.
Weak Retail Sales
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aczvl1b62JVU&refer=home
Fyi. email from friend. Never ever would saw anything like this in print past 10 years.
=============
Dear Home-Buyer or Investor,
Are you shocked by the subject line? If so, it’s because there has been so much
appreciation on some areas of the country, the entire nation has been tricked
into thinking the best part of buying a home is so that it will appreciate.
NEWS FLASH! Over time, homes typically appreciate at the Rate of Inflation!
That’s right, homes typically go up about 3% per year. Granted, there may be some
great years, but that is typically followed by relatively flat years that result
in an average around 3%.
This is terrible news, you say! Well, that is just how it is. And that’s why we have
to be smart when purchasing properties to make sure we buy BELOW Value. That is the only
guaranteed way to have equity in your property! That’s why I am excited that
you have chosen to subscribe to the CurrentForeclosures.com newsletters so that
you can be more informed about a home-buying decision!.
If you haven’t yet begun browsing the foreclosures yet, get started! The price is
just $1 for 15-days. :-) You can sign-up for the 15-day pass at:
==============
INLFATION! 3%? w00000oooohhh
Prices way above this appreciation level.
BOOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAAAAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHA
Bob
Lots of sleepless worried people across the country. DO NOT PUT YOURSELF IN THIS POSTION.
OWNING A BLOATED DREAMBOAT HOUSE WILL ONLY BE A NIGHTMARE.
bababababba
Run on Northern Rock (Hat tip CR):
Northern Rock Customers Crowd London Branches, Withdraw Money
Hundreds of Northern Rock Plc customers crowded into branches in London today to pull out their savings after the mortgage-loan provider sought emergency funding from the Bank of England,
“It’s scary,” said Peter Pye, 60, a retired university lecturer standing in a line of about 30 people outside the Moorgate branch in the financial district. “I have my life’s savings in Northern Rock.” He said he would withdraw a “six- figure” sum and leave 5,000 pounds in the account.
AT
Inventory is exploding in both gsmls and njmls. Last year’s high was in Oct. I expect it to keep climbing, 40,000 by 10/31
KL
KL/Clot,
Sign of the times?
GSMLS Update Listing Notices – Notices regarding past due Anticipated Closing Dates (ANCD) are being mailed today. If your listing is marked Under Contract and the ANCD has passed, the listing closed, or the deal fell through, please update your listing accordingly.
jb
Effective today, Northern Rock has changed it’s name to Northern Quick-Sand.
From MarketWatch:
Subprime fallout will claim more lenders: lawyer
The subprime contagion has already forced several of the nation’s largest home lenders into bankruptcy, but a banking attorney specializing in the mortgage industry says the carnage is far from over.
“This isn’t the last of it,” said Kal Das, head of the global bank and institutional finance and restructuring practice group at law firm Seward & Kissel, in a telephone interview. “Many more mortgage lenders will go down in the coming months.”
wow. in my 30 years young, i’ve never seen people pulling money out of their banks like this.
JB [17],
Run on NR today, run on Countrywide a month ago. HMMNN.
“Over time, homes typically appreciate at the Rate of Inflation! That’s right, homes typically go up about 3% per year. Granted, there may be some great years, but that is typically followed by relatively flat years that result in an average around 3%.”
Maybe in Kansas and Texas. In places such as New Jersey, New York, California, and Massachusetts, home values rise faster than inflation. Real price growth, over the long term, is between 1% and 3%.
Pre,
Are you saying homes here have an average gain of between 1% and 3% after inflation?
Or are you contradicting yourself?
Rich
Real price growth means after adjusting nominal price growth for inflation.
“In places such as New Jersey, New York, California, and Massachusetts, home values rise faster than inflation. Real price growth, over the long term, is between 1% and 3%.”
This did not occur from 1985-2001. Maybe in your dreams.
Frin Bloomberg:
Merrill Says It Made Fair Value Adjustments for Subprime Crisis
Merrill Lynch & Co., the biggest underwriter of collateralized debt obligations, said it made “requisite fair value adjustments” for the impact of rising defaults on subprime mortgages and they’ll be reflected in the firm’s third-quarter earnings.
The New York-based firm said in a regulatory filing today that credit-market conditions “have continued to remain challenging in the third quarter.”
Pre,
Here is your spreadsheet:
https://njrereport.com/files/nj_ofheo.xls
jb
pretorius Says:
September 14th, 2007 at 9:31 am
“Over time, homes typically appreciate at the Rate of Inflation! That’s right, homes typically go up about 3% per year. Granted, there may be some great years, but that is typically followed by relatively flat years that result in an average around 3%.”
Maybe in Kansas and Texas. In places such as New Jersey, New York, California, and Massachusetts, home values rise faster than inflation. Real price growth, over the long term, is between 1% and 3%.
==================
Your former shill leader at the NAR said inflation +1 or 2 %. So if that is the case, you are saying that house prices are extremely over inflated? right?
hehehhehehehehehe!
Back in the early 1990’s Thrift Bust. Know a feller that had money in a thrift that went upside down and took him about a year to get money back from fdic without interest. DO NOT PUT MONEY IN A WEAK BANK. PROTECT YOUR MONEY.
Banks squeezed by credit crisis
By Natasha de Terán
Financial News
September 14, 2007
Interdealer brokers and large prime brokerages risk facing severe financing imbalances.
The increasing role of repurchase agreements in financing credit assets could come back to haunt the repo market, as the fallout from US sub-prime mortgage collapse hits the sector.
“This did not occur from 1985-2001. Maybe in your dreams.”
I crunched the numbers myself. The right way measure appreciation is to look at it across the entire cycle – trough to trough and peak to peak.
NJ home price growth, real
Trough (4Q82) to trough (4Q96): 2.1%
Peak (2Q88) to peak (1Q07): 2.1%
Sorry, the peak to peak number should be 1.7%
Houses are in general 30% over priced from 2005 peak prices based on the shills inflation +1%-2% appreciation.
We all know that home prices apreciation was well beyond these numbers.
Think about.
Incomes in general have not kept up with even 5% appreciation rates, so just maybe with incomes under pressure due to globalization we can throw out these historical appreciation rates cuz things are a changing in this country.
Leans times are a coming.
#31
DO NOT PUT MONEY IN A WEAK BANK.
Which banks are “weak”?
During the last cycle, NJ home prices increased at a real rate of approximately 2%. That appreciation is in line with economic fundamentals.
James Bednar Says:
September 14th, 2007 at 9:51 am
Merrill Lynch & Co., the biggest underwriter of collateralized debt obligations, said it made “requisite fair value adjustments” for the impact of rising defaults on subprime mortgages and they’ll be reflected in the firm’s third-quarter earnings.
grim: you know the story here…..they clean-up their books knowing damn well that they are really sticking it to BS, Leh, MS, GS, Salomon to step up and comply. Really nasty, but completely the Street.
I guess I am buying my new house in the winter of 2008!!!@
(PRWEB) September 13, 2007 — In 2005 Americas Watchdog called the real estate market “a train wreck waiting to happen”. Since the beginning of 2007, thousands of mortgage bankers or brokers have shut their doors or are now unemployed. According to Americas Watchdog, ” the 2008 national real estate market will make 2007 look like a walk in the park”. Specifically, more mortgage lenders will go out of business, some national homebuilders along with scores of regional homebuilders will go bankrupt, commercial real estate investment trusts will get crushed and millions of US consumers will lose their homes to foreclosures.
So What Can Consumers Do To Protect Themselves?
1. If you currently have a “Pay Option adjustable Rate Mortgage”, get out of it if you can afford to. If you can’t afford to get out, Americas Watchdog highly recommends that you contact your lender & demand a fixed rate product. If this does not work, the homeowner might want to consult with a bankruptcy attorney.
Contrary to the mortgage industry spin on “1% start rate mortgages; it was a lie”. These were always suicidal mortgage products. The consumer was not really paying 1%. These mortgage products were a foreclosure waiting to happen. The same was true of “The 100% Financing Mortgage Binge” from 2002-2006. What does a homeowner with 100% financing do now, if their house has gone down in value 10% or more? Americas Watchdog is concerned that hundreds of thousands of US homeowners will simply walk away. The same thing happened in the S & L crisis in the 1980’s.
2. If a homeowner is attempting to sell a home in many major US markets they will either have to lower their asking price, or they might be better off renting the home for at least three years.
3. If you are a buyer, wait if you can.
2008 will bring more real estate price reductions in the southwest, southeast and northeast. In some markets like California, reductions could be 15% or more.
4. If you are an existing homeowner with adjustable rate mortgage, refinance your mortgage into either a 30 year fixed rate mortgage, or get a five or seven year adjustable rate mortgage and stay put. If an existing homeowner has a good mortgage product—say put.
5. Individuals who are Veterans, homeowners/consumers who have average to even poor credit or first time homeowners, should strongly consider getting a FHA or VA Mortgage. FHA & VA mortgage products might be the absolute best mortgage products available in today’s mortgage arena.
Double standards on the part of banks or mortgage bankers, homebuilders inflating the value of their homes over the market & then selling the over priced loan to a pension fund or mutual fund combined with consumers who never should have purchased a home, or never should have used their home as an ATM have all played significant roles in this real estate disaster. Federal bail outs may not be possible because where do the bail outs start? With the consumer, the pension funds, the mutual funds? The price tag could be a trillion dollars or more. While a federal reserve rate cut may help, it will not reverse reality, or the decline of home valuations in many regions of the country. According to Americas Watchdog; “you cannot stop a train wreck once its started”. “But you can legislate transparency, uniformity and integrity for consumers”.
James,
The kicker regarding the ACD and updates is they are fining left and right. Why? They are making more money than ever no? We pay our yearly dues, and pay per listing and changes to listings..with more listings and relistings under contracts/ back on markets/ in arip /out of arip- their transactions rate is great!
KL
More eye opening excerpts about Northern Rock –
‘British Mortgage Lender Is Offered Emergency Loan’
edit –
‘The Bank of England emphasized today that its lending to Northern Rock would be conducted at a premium to market interest rates. Because Northern Rock and other mortgage lenders now will now have to pay more to raise money, they will have to pass along higher interest rates to consumers, analysts say. That could cause a slowdown in lending, which could act as a drag on the British housing market and, perhaps, the economy.
“Costs for first-time borrowers, already stretched in the affordability stakes, will rise substantially,” said Paul Mortimer-Lee, an economist at BNP Paribas. “First-time buyer activity seems pretty certain to show a sharp fall, which, since the whole market rests on the shoulders of the first-time buyer, is like throwing a spanner in the works of the whole market.”
edit-
While the British housing market has soared over the last decade, repeatedly defying many analysts’ warnings that valuations were overstretched, there have been some signs of a slowdown lately.
Some analysts said the news of the bailout of Northern Rock could raise the specter of an old-fashioned “run” on the bank, as account-holders rush to reclaim their deposits. While the BBC reported on its web site that there were long lines at some Northern Rock branches this morning, Adam J. Applegarth, chief executive of the bank, said account holders should not worry.’
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/09/14/business/worldbusiness/14cnd-bank.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin
#25 Rich: he is babbling, he cannot bring himself to acccept the reality that prices sre dropping, and will continue to drop.
He refuses to believe that this was a bubble, and that prices are where they should be.
He has not lived through a down real estate cycle or for that matter a severe recession;he has only knwon good times, like many others.
That is changing rapidly.
pretorius, you are essentially arguing that NY/NJ are magic town where things never reach economic equilibrium. We’ll always have the economic wind at our back! Glory be. Cue “Happy Days are Here Again”. Sorry, not buying that bill of goods. Try the old lady down the street who’s had her house for sale for 18 months.
This whole article is worth a read. Seems like the author should know what he’s talking about.
Housing seer says there’s worse to come
edited-
When John Talbott’s controversial book, The Coming Crash in the Housing Market, hit store shelves in 2003, the real estate industry – and everyone else who stood to profit from the dizzying rise in U.S. home prices – gave it a hostile reception.
“Real estate agents didn’t like it, mortgage brokers didn’t like it, commercial bankers didn’t like it, Wall Street didn’t like it,” he recalls.
“Even when I went on the talk-show circuit, you could tell the animosity in the anchor who was interviewing me because he had a big home and a big mortgage and didn’t want anybody suggesting prices might go down.”
So, with subprime mortgage losses and credit woes now the No. 1 topic in the markets, what does the former Goldman Sachs investment banker see next for the housing market and the U.S. economy?
Well, if you thought things were bad now, just wait. Think bank failures, recession, soaring default rates, home prices plunging by at least one-third and layoffs rippling across the economy. The unwinding could take five to seven years before the housing market hits bottom, he says.
As a former Wall Street insider, Mr. Talbott has a better appreciation than most for how large financial institutions operate. And what he senses now is a massive effort to conceal the extent of the toxic sludge buried beneath some of the biggest names in the business.
“Everybody is hiding and not disclosing losses,” he says. “They’re all winking and nodding at each other because they’ve all got this stuff on their books.”
“Giving a bank more cash doesn’t solve the problem. What they’re sitting on is huge losses and they can’t recognize those losses without endangering their entire book equity and threatening bankruptcy and threatening a run on the banks.”
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/LAC.20070912.RHEINZL12/TPStory/Business
Rob, instead of wasting time repeating myself, I am pasting an earlier post I wrote:
It is completely reasonable for home prices, over the long term, to appreciate faster than inflation in certain areas.
Picture identical houses on 1/4 acre lots in upper-middle-class suburbs of the following cities: New York, San Francisco, Detroit, and Cleveland.
Obviously, the New York and San Francisco houses cost more. Their values have risen faster during the past twenty years compared to similar houses in Detroit and Cleveland, and despite being dramatically less affordable using the median-income-to-home-price metric favored by many, their values will rise faster during the next twenty years.
Land is a natural resource like gold and oil. The value of land, and therefore the price of a house located on it, is based primarily on the proximity it provides to economic activity. Home prices rise faster in places where economic growth is stronger because land commands an economic rental payment. This payment rises faster than inflation in areas of strong economic growth like New York and San Francisco, as a growing number of people wielding rising incomes and net worths bid it up. Meanwhile, the economic rental payment remains flat or even declines in areas with weak economic growth.
In other words, a POS cape in suburban New York or San Francisco costs three or four times more than the identical house in suburban Detroit or Cleveland because the value of the land differentiates the prices. Twenty years from now, the same POS will be worth four or five times more.
#44..NY/NJ “magic” towns..I count my home value at $0 for net worth, assuming (I hope not) the day a terrorist act makes this area an unsustainable or undesireable place to live.
Confessions of a Broker
A former mortgage broker describes the tricks and lies used to lure people into risky loans
http://www.yahoo.com/s/676764
“Over time, homes typically appreciate at the Rate of Inflation! That’s right, homes typically go up about 3% per year. Granted, there may be some great years, but that is typically followed by relatively flat years that result in an average around 3%.”
Maybe in Kansas and Texas. In places such as New Jersey, New York, California, and Massachusetts, home values rise faster than inflation. Real price growth, over the long term, is between 1% and 3%.
I would agree with Pretorius on this front. I took the OFHEO -HPI data from 1977 and applied Inflation numbers on top of it. The HPI went from 29 to 244 from 1977 to 2006. If HPI went up at the rate of Inflation, it should be only 90 in 2006. If you consider Inflation rate as benchmark, most housing in NJ is 2.5 to 3 times over priced.
To come to realistic number, I applied Inflation + 1, +2 and +3 percent appreciation rate. It seemed that Inflation + 3% matches the rate of home prices for most of the duration. Even this line was breached in 2004, representing bubble. During 80’s bubble same line was crossed in 1985, and RE prices came back to meet inflation+3% line in 1992. I do agree that 3% is on high end.
The reality I think is between 2% and 3% over inflation for NJ areas in long term.
http://www.geocities.com/skgala/newark.htm
You have to give it to fact that housing supply is severely restricted, the incomes are higher in NJ areas closer to NY. That does result in paying higher for housing compared to lets say Kansas. But the rise turned into mania since 2003 onward, which needs to get back to reality.
Comrade,
I expect several years of stagnant home prices in New Jersey.
I’ve experienced a difficult economic environment – I began a job search in late 2001. Wasn’t a great time to be looking for a job around here.
comrade 3b [43],
Can unrealistic trends go on forever? Never has in the past. Just as night follows day, the idiotic things that those have done, while they were goosed, will be corrected. Hard to believe, but there are bear markets and recessions in economic cycles. The force of the correction will be greater than the fraud, deception and delusion that preceded it.
UK’s housing issues are worse than in the US, they were just better hidden. Tons of 40 year interest only, singles clubbing together to buy a house, recently they were suggesting generational loans.
Their problems are exacerbated because they get tax incentives on Buy to Let (not on primary residences) so their share of investors is enormous and many have negative cash flow.
Their bubble started before ours and is ending later – sure signs of disaster.
I actually agree with Pre also (thanks for the clarification by the way) about the average rate of return.
Due to the recent run-up I feel we’ll see lowering of recent prices and then over a long period of time stagnant growth in the rate of return.
I hope I worded that correctly… I’m so damn tired lately that both reading and writing have become difficult.
Rich
BC bob,
The last NJ home price cycle resulted in real price growth of 2%
Long-term real price growth of 2% is not “unrealistic” or “idiotic” for areas that, over the long-term, experience expanding economies and rising incomes and net worths.
Can somebody who believes in long-term inflationary home price growth make the case that a boom is imminent in Detroit and Cleveland, on the basis that sub-inflation price growth must correct?
I know, I know, it’s CNBC… but next up for discussion is Hovnavian’s “Fire Sale”
“Rob, instead of wasting time repeating myself, I am pasting an earlier post I wrote:”
[46],
I’ll repeat myself. Why don’t you footnote the book where you read this. I read the same. If this was true, why haven’t rents in NNJ increased at the same pace as RE prices?
How do you explain the p/e ratio of investment properties going from a price of 10X annual rent to 25X? If land was such a commodity as oil, wheat, gold, etc., you would have not experienced such a blow out in the spread. The purchase/rent spread ratio would have, should have remained constant.
Simple explanation, a classic bubble. Markets make opinions, opinions do not make markets. Where you stand depends on where you sit.
“pretorius Says:
September 14th, 2007 at 10:35 am
Comrade,
I’ve experienced a difficult economic environment – I began a job search in late 2001. Wasn’t a great time to be looking for a job around here.”
That wasn’t even close to the severe recession he was talking about. 2001 was annoying, not at critical levels, and the next bubble was already inflating.
When you see a 50 year old lose their job in an area with 17% unemployment and unspoken age discrimination take 3 years to find new employment after sending 100’s of resumes and dozens of interviews – THAT is a really difficult economic environment.
BC Bob,
I didn’t plagiarize a book. My thoughts reflect lots of reading, number crunching, and discussions with very smart real estate people.
Can you show me evidence supporting your case that apartment rents have increased slower than the 2% real rate of home prices?
Did BC just pull the Good Will Hunting bar scene on Pret?
My rent went up 2% last year
Supporting evidence that rents have not kept up with the 100% RE gains from 2001-2006? You are actually kidding, right? How about 499K or rent for $1,700 per month. That’s what I have seen in a number of instances. I don’t have time to dig now. Any pea brain knows that this spread, during this time frame, is larger than the massive jaws gap in JB’s inventory/sales chart.
#50 pret: With all due respect, 2001 was pretty shallow in terms of recessions,and it ended quickly, as the Fed slashed rates which in large measure led us to the mess we have now.
Prices remaining flat? Bsed on what? With all the madness and recklessness, artifically low rates, lax/no lending standards, no money down I/O, neg am, prices doubling and tripling in 5 years, stagnant wage growth, the fiscal disaster that is the state of NJ, the poor good job creation state that is NJ, the foreclosures. I could go on and on.
And yet you claim just flat prices?
Prices dropped before, and dropped dramatically, I know, I lived through it, and at that time even though it was crazy, there was not the pure insanity that we had this time around. well you will say there was a recession last time, yes there was, and it looks like we are heading that way now, and we are long overdue.
The era of unending good times led to the belief that risk has been eliminated from the markets, well it turns out that was wrong.
This is a capitalist system we live in, there are booms, there are busts some worse than others, but IMO, this was the grandaddy of them all in at least the last generation.
Prices are correcting, they had to, the fundamentals did not aupport the prices. I have heard every lame excuse on this site Wall St bonus money, proximity to NYC.
I worked for one of the big boys for many years, time and time again I have counseled that people read far too much into the street,and its impact on housing prices int his area.
Heck I have even had people over the last few years lecture me on the street, and they have never even worked in the industry.
I knwo you are in your 30’s, I have family members in that age group, and it has been a long party for a long time,and so of course from your perspective it would not, and could not end, but end it does.
A sign of things to come?
http://www.reuters.com/article/innovationNews/idUSL1477135920070914
“I didn’t plagiarize a book”
I have the book at home. I forget the exact title, something like Mania’s and Bubbles. I’ll find this weekend.
#9
Looks like a decent house. That area of the Twp is very hilly though so the lot may have something to do with the price (no pic of the backyard is one indicator). A friend of mine just bought a smaller place in the Twp (and not any nicer) for a bit over $1 mil. For the space that is a good deal but like I said, my bet is the lot sucks.
The better question is why slum it in the Township when the Borough is the place to be ;)
#58 pret: Just started year 3 in my rental, and again no increase;he is happy to have me.
3 beds, 2 baths, nice yard.
I read that argument about “proximity” and thought is was BS last time. Over the long term NY/NJ cannot outperform while the rest of the country stagnates. If I recall, JB himself gave you the reductio ad absurdum to that argument.
Yes, there will always be a premium relative to “the sticks” attached to proximity to NYC. That premium can not continue to grow without bound. At some point an equilibrium is reached between cost and economic opportunity.
#57 lisoosh: Sadly we may be seeing that again.
#53 Rich:Due to the recent run-up I feel we’ll see lowering of recent prices and then over a long period of time stagnant growth in the rate of return.
Actually you do not agree with pret. If I understand his position correctly, there will simply be flat prices for a couple of years, but no price declines.
BC Bob,
AvalonBay owns more than 1,000 apartments in northern NJ. Average rent in this portfolio rose 9.2% in 2006 compared to 2005. In the company’s northern NJ region, rents ($2,488) and occupancy (97.1%) were the highest out of 22 regions.
Just an example, I know. But more relevant that the anecdotes I often see here because AvalonBay owns a big portfolio, reports operating metrics honestly, and attracts renters with similar characteristics to first-time homebuyers.
And don’t waste your time with the book search.
Bc, #8
Are you still calculating the risk on Euro based investments or you pulled the trigger.
Show me where rents have increased 100% from 2001-20006 in NNJ?
Make [71],
Pulled the trigger? I’ve been in the anti-dollar trade since 2003.
Comrade,
“If I understand his position correctly, there will simply be flat prices for a couple of years, but no price declines.”
To provide more clarity on my view that prices will remain stagnant for several years – NJ home price growth will be between -5% to 5% on a nominal basis.
Last year I recall all of the real estate analysts pointing to the ever-widening spread between prices and rents as a reason to “buy now” as rents were overdue for huge hikes. Ha Ha!
BC bob,
Why don’t you respond to #58 before suggesting more work for me?
#46 Twenty years from now, the same POS will be worth four or five times more.
I for one would not be looking out 20 years.
We have no idea how desireable or undesireable the NYC metor area may be in that time frame, or even how important the USA will be as world economic military power/leader.
The 2001 recession… BWAHHAAHHAAA!!!!
Gary, what are your thoughts on Verona? I think you’re looking in the surrounding area. I don’t know anything about it, looking for some input.
Old Bridge pursuing data processing center
Friday, September 14, 2007
BY ALLISON STEELE
Star-Ledger Staff
Should a major computer system crash on Wall Street in a few years, Manhattan bankers may have Old Bridge to thank for keeping their numbers safe. A new proposal could bring a massive data processing center to the Crossroads property near Routes 9 and 18 — a project that would eat up most of the 500-acre parcel.
…
Because 10 to 15 people would work in each building, the data center would require few municipal services such as water, sewer or police assistance, [Old Bridge Council President] Gillespie said. The site also would generate little traffic, and because the center would require cooling systems and electricity generators, the finished buildings could be valued at as much as $1 billion, he said.
“Our goal is obviously to provide tax relief,” Gillespie said.
…
The need for such computer centers grew out of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, said Old Bridge Mayor Jim Phillips.
“Why don’t you respond to #58 before suggesting more work for me?”
pre,
I did, #61. By the way, RE is strictly local. The same applies to rent. I sold in 9/2005 and rented a new apt with a built in pool. I have not had one rent increase since. The landlord is begging for me to stay. He receives his rent on the 1st, cash. How has RE done in NNJ since 9/2005?
“How has RE done in NNJ since 9/2005?”
Since anecdotes have seized the day, here we go:
I signed the contract for a preconstruction condo in October 2005. I sold it earlier this year. My IRR was >100%.
The point is rent versus own calculations should reflect assumptions for price appreciation and leverage. Assuming 5% nominal price appreciation and 80% leverage, owning wins nearly every time.
The monthly cost comparison is too simple.
Show me where rents have increased 100% from 2001-20006 in NNJ?
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
I don’t understand why anyone who could buy a home would rent…stay in a home 15 or 20 years and sell it…just the equity that you made would mean you would walk away with something in your pocket….rent for the same time period, walk away with whatever you ‘saved’ by not buying a home….not sure I see an advantage. Buying a home is like ‘forced savings’ with a roof over your head…(*ducking for the barrage of rants to follow…)
#79, although you did not ask me, before we moved to CG we looked at Verona. Generally slightly higher taxes, considered better HS, has community center.
Verona is going through Tax Reval now, CG is scheduled for 2010, keep that in mind.
although iif you were to talk to CG and Verona residents, there is a heated rivalry, the demographics are essentially the same (don’t tell them that). Housing stock similar but seemingly more 4 bedrooms in Verona.
Good luck.
“Show me where rents have increased 100% from 2001-20006 in NNJ?”
From my personal file, I lived in an apartment in Southern NJ from 2001-2006 and the rent went from 600 to 750 over that period of time.
Just another anecdote.
Grim (19)-
Still lots of buyers finalizing new mortgages on closings that were to happen in August, but didn’t because the original lenders went belly-up.
Thanks Condo Buyer… I had no idea about the “heated rivalry”, too funny.
Anybody else just recieve the following email from Bloomberg?
Dear Valued Bloomberg User,
This is a general message to all of our users to remind you that we can provide complimentary access to our service should you find yourself temporarily in between jobs.
You will need to provide the hardware (regular PC with internet
connectivity) and we will provide you with the Bloomberg Professional Software.
If interested, pls call us on 212 617 2000 and ask for the Bloomberg Sales Department. We appreciate your business. Max Linnington ( Head of Sales, Americas )
Booyah (31) now fanning the flames on a bank run.
Good times.
“Assuming 5% nominal price appreciation and 80% leverage, owning wins nearly every time.”
Forget about the CFA. You should be a quant. Great assumptionns. Unfortunately, data mining and monte carlo simulations do not always translate into profits in the real world. When homeowners need to sell for typical reasons; job transfer, retiring, divorce, moving to a new school district, downsizing, death, etc.., they don’t have the luxury of pulling up a speadsheet and calculating where they are in the cycle. It’s a bunch of useless information for the homeowner.
By the way, discussions regarding peak to trough in RE are meaningless. I am not arguing 1985-2004. I was a bull then, owned several properties. My argument, strictly the bubble years.
“discussions regarding peak to trough in RE are meaningless”
Then why are you here?
383 Essex: the trick is to figure out ho much you have “saved” over 15 years.
The mtg pymt, look at the amount of interest you ahev paid over 15 years, plus the 10K a year (and rising every year) property taxes, plus maintenance. Comapre that to the rental pymt over 15 years, and of course the tax bereak for the mtg.
That is why it is so important not to over pay for the hosue, because once you have over paid, you will have always overr paid. You can never refinance the purchase price.
I have found that more than a few homweowners have difficulty getting their minds around this fact.
They say for instance I paid 300k, I sold it for 400K, snd so I made 100K in profit;gotta do the math to determine if that is the case or not.
#87 Doyle: That is the same in many NJ towns;its quite commical.
ChiFi (39)-
Who ever thought that mark-to-market would be such a radical concept?
Houses lose money over time then do not keep up with inflation, except for the recent bubble. A house has ton on upkeep, RE Taxes and insurance in addition there is a little thing called a mortgage. Let say my house is maint free, and pays no taxes and has free insurance.
If I took a 100% down IO only mortgage like a lot of these dopes did at 7% and inflation is 3% I have to gave the house rise in value 10% each year to break even.
People always buy a house for 300K and sell it ten years later for 600K and claim them made 300K and forget about the 100K in mortgage interest the 100K in taxes and the 100K in fuel/electricity and repairs.
BC (61)-
Don’t waste your time. If Pret doesn’t understand that even 25 y/o kids can do the rent-vs-own arbitrage in their heads…then decide not to buy, as the difference is absurd…he doesn’t need statistical proof.
He needs a therapist to help him with his denial.
GREENSPAN IN TROUBLE FOR DOUBLE BUBBLES
By JANET WHITMAN
ALAN GREENSPAN
“Encouraged speculators.”September 12, 2007 — Wall Street can thank Alan Greenspan for the latest turmoil in the credit markets.
That’s the conclusion of Portfolio magazine Contributing Editor John Cassidy, the latest critic to blast the former Federal Reserve chairman’s policy decisions.
“By keeping interest rates too low for too long, he encouraged a borrowing-fueled speculative binge, which has now given way to a credit squeeze,” Cassidy writes in the coming issue of Portfolio, which hits newsstands next week.
“By failing to crack down on the mortgage industry, he allowed subprime hucksters to peddle dubious loans, which the financial industry’s math whizzes packaged for investors.”
Based on his experience during the dot-com boom and bust, Greenspan should have known that “the best way to control a speculative boom is to prevent it from developing in the first place,” Cassidy adds.
“For a Fed chairman to have one speculative bubble inflate during his tenure is an indictment; to have two of them qualifies him as a serial bubble blower.”
The disparaging article comes as Greenspan’s eagerly anticipated memoir, “The Age of Turbulence,” is being released. Greenspan is also scheduled to make an appearance Sunday on CBS’ “60 Minutes”
Cassidy finds Greenspan, who has long been one of the economy’s biggest boosters, “remarkably pessimistic about the prospects facing the United States” in the book.
Besides being concerned about the retirement of the baby boomers, Greenspan is worried that technological innovation is slowing down.
GREENSPAN IN TROUBLE FOR DOUBLE BUBBLES
By JANET WHITMAN
ALAN GREENSPAN
“Encouraged speculators.”September 12, 2007 — Wall Street can thank Alan Greenspan for the latest turmoil in the credit markets.
That’s the conclusion of Portfolio magazine Contributing Editor John Cassidy, the latest critic to blast the former Federal Reserve chairman’s policy decisions.
“By keeping interest rates too low for too long, he encouraged a borrowing-fueled speculative binge, which has now given way to a credit squeeze,” Cassidy writes in the coming issue of Portfolio, which hits newsstands next week.
“By failing to crack down on the mortgage industry, he allowed subprime hucksters to peddle dubious loans, which the financial industry’s math whizzes packaged for investors.”
Based on his experience during the dot-com boom and bust, Greenspan should have known that “the best way to control a speculative boom is to prevent it from developing in the first place,” Cassidy adds.
“For a Fed chairman to have one speculative bubble inflate during his tenure is an indictment; to have two of them qualifies him as a serial bubble blower.”
The disparaging article comes as Greenspan’s eagerly anticipated memoir, “The Age of Turbulence,” is being released. Greenspan is also scheduled to make an appearance Sunday on CBS’ “60 Minutes”
Cassidy finds Greenspan, who has long been one of the economy’s biggest boosters, “remarkably pessimistic about the prospects facing the United States” in the book.
Besides being concerned about the retirement of the baby boomers, Greenspan is worried that technological innovation is slowing down.
Somebody better tell the fat b*stards trying to sell their over-priced sh*t boxes that Hovnanian is slashing prices by 25%. And these are brand new homes with fresh paint and appliances and no p*ss stains on the carpets unlike the beer-smelling dumps the plebs are trying to unload. New comps have been established. Is that why I received 3 emails in the last two days from realtors I barely remember meeting at open houses over a year ago?
Note to sellers: It’s….. the….. price….. st*pid.
“I don’t understand why anyone who could buy a home would rent…stay in a home 15 or 20 years and sell it…”
A home can be what you make of it, whether you own or rent that place. Over the years a home was a place to live, grow in a community and have a nice stable investment. You put down 20% and had skin in the game. The house appreciated at or near the rate of inflation. Fast forward to the 2000’s. It turns 360 to a futures market, where you were not required to have a dime in your margin account and many are not taking delivery. I can’t get a deal like this with any futures brokerage house on the street today. You ask yourself if the previous 15 years were an abberation and have we now entered some new paradigm. When a stable investment turned into a pork bellie pit, I decided to act, create a lifetime of savings in one fell swoop. I still live in the same community but rent my roof rather than rent my mortgage money. Same friends, same church, same family. My investments outside of RE have grown tremendously and if I want I can now buy the same place that I sold for 10-15% less. However, if I felt that this market would retrace just 10-15%, I would never have sold. The retracement will be much worse than that. This bubble is in its early stages of bursting.
#98 John: and what is really sad/pathetic, he now claism he could not see the sub=prime mess coming, says alot does it not?
that’s pork belly.
BC Bob Says:
September 14th, 2007 at 11:16 am
Make [71],
Pulled the trigger? I’ve been in the anti-dollar trade since 2003.
BCBob, MM seems to have woken up to the weak dollar trade recently. Better late than never? I guess he has realized than holding dollars in cash isn’t that pretty.
BC Bob,
Are you really predicting a decline of more than 15%?
According to OFHEO data, NJ home prices fell 7.8% peak to trough during last bust.
Pre,
What was your methodology for adjusting for inflation? Did you use CPI less shelter for the MSA or area in question?
jb
At least in Manhattan, rent increases have been our of control maybe not 100% but alot. My rent in 2003 was 2150 and when I left the city in 2006 it was 3500. I think last I read the vacany rate was
less than 1%
Continental drift is pulling NJ farther away from New York. All you “proximity is king” speculators are going to wind up with egg on your faces in about 250 million years.
HSBC Subprime Unit Accused of Overcharging Blacks
By Tim McLaughlin
NEW YORK, Sept. 13 (Reuters) – HSBC Finance has been accused in a federal lawsuit of using a subprime lending unit to unfairly target U.S. blacks for extra mortgage fees and charges not paid by white borrowers.
Suyapa Allen, of Stoughton, Massachusetts, borrowed $303,376 from HSBC’s Decision One mortgage unit, but will pay another $911,337 in interest and finance charges over the next 30 years, court papers show.
Her interest and finance charges are about $200,000 more than what a borrower would pay on a conventional 30-year loan with a fixed interest rate of more than 11 percent, according to a standard mortgage calculator.
100. — BCBOB —
good argument. good logic.
Stocks carry risk too…having seen that play out a few times. I suppose the skin in the game is what keeps me interested. That and the intangibles…like that illusory American Dream everybody keeps mentioning. You can’t take it with you, I’d hope to leave the roof to my little girl, so she never gets rained on.
Rents in NYC shot up because of external factors, or more precisely, rents were “low” in NYC because of regulation.
De-regulated units were allowed to shoot up to whatever price overmonied asshats would pay. A better metric might be to chart the rise in prices AFTER deregulation. e.g.: The apartment next to my brother-in-law’s on UES went from $1250 to $2800 in 2004, after a long-time tenant had moved out. Since 2004, the apartment has had two tenants. The current tenant’s rent? $2925.
That’s what the market will bear.
“Are you really predicting a decline of more than 15%?”
pre,
I have been on this site for almost 2 years. I have said repeatedly, 30-40% off the highs.I have not wavered. That 250K cape, in 2000, that sold for 500K, 300-350k. The 500k colonial, in 2000, that sold for 1 mil, 600-700k. Six-seven years peak, trough. Outrageous? Who would think the richest country in the world would have millions living in houses that they don’t have a prayer of keeping and driving cars that they can not afford financed from Japan and China. That’s outrageous, at least to me.
HEHEHE (88) : I noticed the Bloomberg message as well, Iast time I saw the same message was 2001/2002 when the street was laying off people.
JB,
I used the CPI-U. That is the index Shiller used in his infamous chart. I asked for the chart’s back up data so I could do the nominal to real adjustment accurately.
Also noticed that Shiller used no fewer than 5 separate real estate indices in the chart.
http://www.bls.gov/ro5/cpiushistorical.pdf
HEHEHE Says:
September 14th, 2007 at 11:02 am
My rent went up 2% last year
Hehehe: my rent has gone down 14.6% THIS year!
Essex [110],
I certainly understand your point and appreciate where you are coming from. There are many angles to view this.
Pretorius,
Remember the OFHEO data only include conforming mortgages. Hardly good data for NJ since there are plenty on jumbo loans in the State. OFHEO also has other deficiencies, but I won’t go into that now.
dreamtheate,
Over the last couple of months I have taken out US dollars and purchased swiss franc and Euro denominated assets.
Since early 2005 I have cashed out of all my speculative buying and only hold properties with positive cash flows. I have to admit that over the last 2yrs I was hesitant to invest much in the equity markets and used most of my cash position in US CD’s earning a mere 5%.
Over the last couple of months I woke up and diversified my cash position. Since Dollar took a little fall and BC BOB was doing some sort of calculation of risk thing that I don’t really understand since I’m not a risk analyst.
I’m just a simple man who was lucky to cash out at the top and saw enormous opportunities at the bottom. That’s all.
Why is the yeild on the 10 year creeping back up? Are rate cut expectations moderating?
83: I bought in 1998. If I were in the same predicament now, I’d rent.
But, yeah, forced savings. Plus, I like my house and the town I live in.
Besides, had I stayed in my $1100/month Manhattan walk-up and invested the difference, maybe I’d be ahead. But I would have spent much of that windfall raising bonsai children: http://www.shorty.com/bonsaikitten/
no matter how good your arguments are, one thing is 100% certain: like any market, re market does not follow your logic. it will go up if it wants to go up and go down if it wants to go down. instead of reasoning why it should go down, i pay more attention to the market. that is why i predicted perfectly on bond market. oil? $80 is the sky ceiling. cut loss if it goes through $82.
My rent increased 1% last 2 years. Ef it if prop taxes and utilities (heating, cooking and water) increased double digits…not my problem since it’s included in rent. All I pay extra is for electricity.
The American Dream is turning upside down for many…. ‘Blinded by the Light’
(Boss, take over…)
“Over the last couple of months I woke up and diversified my cash position. Since Dollar took a little fall and BC BOB was doing some sort of calculation of risk thing that I don’t really understand since I’m not a risk analyst.”
Make,
Please, Please, do not make any investment moves based on what I say. I talk in general terms, not specific buys and sales. I am discussing trends that have gone on for a long time. At any moment the trade can experience vicious short term counter trend moves.
All disclaimers.
chicagofinance Says:
September 14th, 2007 at 12:35 pm
HEHEHE Says:
September 14th, 2007 at 11:02 am
My rent went up 2% last year
Hehehe: my rent has gone down 14.6% THIS year!
Yeah but you get a discount because your unit is below Carla K’s?
#121 If you’r market calls are so accurate, How come you don’t have the office next to Warren.
Every day trader thought he was smartest individual back in the dot com days.
No matter how you spin it, investing is about fundamentals, at least that’s what I believe and I’ve done alright so far.
dblko Says:
September 14th, 2007 at 12:33 pm
HEHEHE (88) : I noticed the Bloomberg message as well, Iast time I saw the same message was 2001/2002 when the street was laying off people.
I think this does not bode well for next week’s earnings;)
dream [122],
Yeah he was blinded by the light
Cut loose like a deuce another runner in the night
Blinded by the light
He got down but she never got tight, but he’s gonna make it tonight
This shouldn’t be considered investment advise, but you can’t lose investing in beanie babies and Elvis commemorative plates.
#121 bi: you have a beautiful mind.
The real estate market will go up because it wants to? I am gonna have lucnh now, because I want to.
#104 pre: Prices fell much further than that, in my premier blue ribbon, minutes from NYC town.
#100 BC Bob: My situation mirrors yours almost exactly. Sold after owning long term. What was the reaction from your family/friends when you did it?
#127 BC Bob: I think Mellencamps Crublin Down fits well right about now.
Hard being a Mellencamp fan in the land of Springsteen.
Comrade 3b [131],
Everybody thought I was nuts. My family, friends thought I lost my job, owed the bookie a ton, drug problem or was having severe money problems. They looked at me like I had 3 heads. The mayor offered me a job in town [taxpayer bailout], he thought I lost my job. Nobody could comprehend what I was doing. At that time, I knew it was the right decision.
Funny, they now ask, what do you see then. A few friends are actually pissed that I did not convince them to sell.
In other words, a POS cape in suburban New York or San Francisco costs three or four times more than the identical house in suburban Detroit or Cleveland because the value of the land differentiates the prices. Twenty years from now, the same POS will be worth four or five times more.
=====================
I disagree again. Houses in Detroit or Cleveland are priced at discounts to REPLACEMENT cost…meaning it is much cheaper to buy existing than to build.
Houses in The “Bubble” Markets have prices based on fantasy lending.
Hey, happy Friday afternoon LODs!
For the sake of space and those who have been complaining about the number of posts, is there any possible way use links to pages of common arguments?
For example, they could be classified as:
I. The Pretorius Response
Blah, Blah.., but blah, blah….see June 10
link here, blah, see April 11th here…blah
II. The Bi Response
Blah, Blah.., but blah, blah….see June 10
link here, blah, see April 11th here…blah
III. The Trolling Realtor Response
We could keep a list on JB’s home page, and just click on the correct response for each of the common arguements like “The Reality of Rent Arbitrage,” “The true home price appreciation index,” and so on.
“Fantasy lending” that happened in New York and San Francisco also happened in Detroit and Cleveland.
In fact, a quarter of subprime borrowers in Detroit and Cleveland have stopped making payments, making those cities the biggest fantasy lending deadbeats in the country.
http://money.cnn.com/2007/03/21/real_estate/subprime_vulnerable/index.htm
Fantasy lending took place everywhere, but prices didn’t rise everywhere.
Subprime borrowers are defaulting en masse in some areas, but not others.
The differentiator is local economic conditions.
Clott or someone who knows well, a simple, practical question that’s not clear to me if you have a second…
How do I get purchase history on a home? I looked up the taxes on line and the assessed values where available, but nothing about the purchase/sale of the property. Is there an easy, or online way, to find out purchase history for the non-realtor?
#133 BC Bob: Same thing for me, some were actually openly hostile, and of course there were whispers.
Now I am asked for my opinions, and I see and hear real fear in peoples faces/voices.
#137 curiousd-
Trulia and Zillow has a lot of previous sales info.
#135-
Pat, yes, I think Pret vs. everyone else threads are making me believe now may be a good time to reconsider message boards. JB, I know you had them at one point. Would you reconsider them?
JM
Pretorius, we are at the end of a 30 year banking cycle that began in the 70s. NYC and the tri state area was a dump at the time… over the last 30 years the financial markets have grown, and with it the prosperity of the area.
I remember NYC when I was a kid and I think it is silly to assume that the nastiness of the city was purely due to Koch and Dinkins.
This is all coming to an end. Put your clock back 30 years and look to the future.
Hey All,
I was wondering _if_ inflation is going to jump up to a larger percentage, won’t that eventually even out the large increase in prices we’ve seen? Or am I totally off?
Aaron #141,
… we are at the end of a 30 year banking cycle that began in the 70s.
How do you know?
#141
So, Times Square is going to go from the Disneyworld it’s become back to hookers and dealers?
I highly doubt that.
You said it, not me. I wouldn’t be surprised.
The dollar bubble is finished. The dollar has been the cornerstone of the world financial markets since the 70s, and it is crumbling before our eyes.
I miss the good old days in NYC during the early nineties. Parents warnings that only crazies went into the city at night. Porn shops, hookers, and pimps oh my. I can say it changed for the better but it lost a lot of its post apocalyptic charm. On the other hand goofy tourists much better than a black jack to the head during a mugging.
Geez, sounds like the world is ending… better hunker down.
All our productivity and GDP growth numbers have been boosted by off-shoring the last 10 years. We are running out of seed corn, aren’t we?
Where will all the newly minted millionaires of Wall Street move to once the hookers and dealers move back in?
And if the hookers and dealers are gonna move back into Manhattan, where are they right now?
Or will the millionaires referred to above simply change careers and become hookers and dealers? Some of those Wall St chicks are hot, they’d do well.
Justin/139
Thanks… but specifically I want to be able to see the purchase history on the EXACT place I’m looking at. How can that be done? Any ideas?
The world is running out of underutilized poor people? ZOMFG!
We are running out of things to outsource. It is false growth, creating numbers that we can’t sustain.
I’m thinking sending baby-boomers to nursing homes in India is the next step.
Sentence 1: You say we’re running out of things to outsource.
Sentence 2: You think of something to outsource.
#149:
If Zillow, you can enter an address. It’ll bring up a map with the (orange) house listed on it. If you click on the house icon, there is a “Recent sale and tax” data label. You usually have to enter a code (via typing what is displayed in a Picture) and then it’ll show the tax and sales data it has.
I’m not saying things don’t look bleak and yes we are in for some rocky times ahead. However, I am not preparing for Armageddon.
Maybe that’s just me.
curious d, if you put an address into trulia or zillow it will give you the last historic sale on the specific property in question for many properties.
Zillow/Trulia/nj.com etc are all good sources of data but I haven’t found any datasource that has every transaction I’m looking for. They’re all missing something.
Is Maria Bartiromo going out of work and becoming a hooker and/or dealer really Armageddon?
I think a major shift is taking place, but the shift is the death of the middle class and right now we are witnessing the heart attack. Debt has finally killed the average American, though most don’t know it yet. Most have no safety cushion, no room for error. The government at all levels is basically bankrupt, so there is no meaningful safety net from them either.
I do not think NYC will come to resemble Detroit because I think the rich will continue to get richer and NYC has become a very desireable place that draws the wealthy from all over the world. What I do think is that the gulf between rich and poor will continue to widen at a much faster pace now. We will come to resemble Brazil or 19th century America within our lifetimes.
“I don’t understand why anyone who could buy a home would rent…stay in a home 15 or 20 years ”
you answered your own question…
Is anybody here trying to look at HOV’s “deal of the century” this weekend? i went throught the list last night and found out only North Brunswick developement is doable for NYC commute. It has only 4 left in 14 home community. the fire sale applies to only “selected” homes, say 2 of them. i would think it is more a sales tactics than desperation.
I do not think NYC will come to resemble Detroit because I think the rich will continue to get richer and NYC has become a very desireable place that draws the wealthy from all over the world.
If that happens, wouldn’t that be good for the surrounding areas as well?
#160 bi “i would think it is more a sales tactics than desperation.”
And of course, you would know, its just a sales tactic.
The fact that they are rapidly running out of cash means nothing.
I can’t get in to khov.com. Looks like the site may be down or slow.
What will the rich be doing in NYC if there aren’t any opportunities to make money in the financial markets?
Over the years many different cities have seen booms and busts… explain to me why NYC is different in this aspect.
“oil? $80 is the sky ceiling. cut loss if it goes through $82.”
What if it goes to $40?
Blurb on khov.com:
The K. Hovnanian Family of Builders has been experiencing unprecedented demand across our website. You may experience slower than normal response time as you look for your Deal of the Century.
My rent increased 0% in ’04, 0% in ’05, 1.5% in ’06 and 0% in ’07.
“Over the years many different cities have seen booms and busts… explain to me why NYC is different in this aspect.”
New York has been the center of the US finance industry since independence. It always will be.
London has been the center of the UK finance industry even longer.
#157 Sync, Maria’s married to a hedgie….no need (so far) to wh0re around.
What poor people? There are no poor people in NY? I see plenty of “poor people” in Brooklyn every day in $100 dollar sneakers, with IPODs and Sean John outfits but no real poor people.
A priest in Brooklyn in a parish over by metrotech once told me that 100 years ago the poor Italian imigrants with holes in their shoes and no coat on their back came to church to put their nickles in the basket to help out the even poorer people. Today he has “poor people” coming to the church in $100 sneakers and $500 leather coats to ask for a free handout.
Is anybody here trying to look at HOV’s “deal of the century” this weekend? i went throught the list last night and found out only North Brunswick developement is doable for NYC commute. It has only 4 left in 14 home community. the fire sale applies to only “selected” homes, say 2 of them. i would think it is more a sales tactics than desperation.
Can you say bait and switch?
My guess is, any developments close to the city will get the smallest of discounts.
#141
“Pretorius, we are at the end of a 30 year banking cycle that began in the 70s. NYC and the tri state area was a dump at the time… over the last 30 years the financial markets have grown, and with it the prosperity of the area.
I remember NYC when I was a kid and I think it is silly to assume that the nastiness of the city was purely due to Koch and Dinkins.”
Hey – maybe we were neighbors. Yeah – the NYC I grew up in in the ’70s was quite a bit different than this one, and it certainly wasn’t Dinkins’s fault (Ford, maybe?). Frankly, it was quite a bit different in 1988.
I miss it, in an odd way. There are people living here now who would run screaming from the town it used to be (and might soon be again).
“Times Square is going to go from the Disneyworld it’s become back to hookers and dealers?
I highly doubt that.”
Why, Doyle? (Just curious).
#168 pret: New York has been the center of the US finance industry since independence. It always will be.
You are probably right on that count. However, there are those, who already say that London is or will be the center of the financial world, and of course there was a time when London and the British Empire was the center of the world.
That of course has changed. today we have China/India, a resurgent Russia, all ingredients that were never there before, so who konws what things will look like in 20 years, in any city or country in teh world.
In 1850 the British Empire ruled much of the world (the seun never sets),less than 100 years later that was over.
I would not take anything fro granted,a nd to assume that America or NYC will always be number 1 is foolish.
Alot of compalcenbt clueless Americans out there, and a lot of hungry ambitious countries/peoples and economies that are up and coming.
Always best to look over ones shoulder.
I remember when Disney was supposedly going to come in and clean up 42nd St. All my old-school NYC friends said “How many times have we heard that? It’s never happened and never will.”
Now, when the suggestion is made that it might revert, you hear the same response, but backwards.
Someone please tell me what is fundamentally different about NYC now than in 1985?
#171 Richie Actually I saw one in West NY that was being doscounted from over 1.1 million to 800k or so.
#175 njpatient: Too many people from the mid-west.
“London has been the center of the UK finance industry even longer.”
Very true. It has been termed the new financial capital of the world. When Mack, MS, was giving out 2007 bonuses, he decided to fly to London and hand them out in person, NY played second fiddle. The small isle had a tremendous RE boom. It was destined to continue, after all this is the new financial capital of the world, a new world order. A funny thing happened, RE prices started to decline. There are close to 1 mil vacant properties[off the newswires]. How can this be?
the rich people in NYC will do the same thing they’ve also done: live off of inherited wealth or work in finance, media, fashion, etc. These are the people who run the businesses or inherited money from people who once ran the businesses. The welfare people will live the same too. It is the people in the middle without unique skills or who aren’t lucky enough to get gov’t jobs who are screwed and are looking at a major drop in their standard of living. Since this is most people in America, the fabric of this country is going to change
“today we have China/India, a resurgent Russia”
Exactly. As the economies of enormous third world countries expand, the centers of globalization – New York and London – get richer.
It should be obvious by now that the emergence of new markets helps, not hurts, the world’s financial centers.
This environment also hurts the first world’s manufacturing centers.
In other words, New York and San Francisco get richer while Detroit and Cleveland get poorer.
“pretorius Says:
September 14th, 2007 at 3:00 pm
“Over the years many different cities have seen booms and busts… explain to me why NYC is different in this aspect.”
New York has been the center of the US finance industry since independence. It always will be.”
Obviously that’s true, but it begs the question of why, if NYC is different because it’s the center of the US finance industry, it was a craphole for two decades.
#170 John
“A priest in Brooklyn in a parish over by metrotech once told me that 100 years ago the poor Italian imigrants with holes in their shoes and no coat on their back came to church to put their nickles in the basket to help out the even poorer people.”
Have you ever seen the quote on the wall at Ellis Island, attributed to an Italian immigrant? To paraphrase: “I came to America because they told me the streets were paved with gold. When I arrived, I learned three things: (1) the streets were not paved with gold, (2) the streets were not paved and (3) I was expected to pave the streets.”
NJPatient,
I walk around NYC every single day and it is not Disney World for us, it’s for all the European tourists. They jam the streets and are spending some serious dough. If they continue to dominate on the exchange rate, I suspect they’ll keep coming. So I don’t see Times Square packing up anytime soon.
My comment wasn’t in reference to 30 years down the road. I realize times can change (anywhere) and maybe they will, anything can happen. But, I was referencing the near future (coming years) which is what the majority of discussions here do.
Do you see hookers and drug dealers strolling through Port Authority again in the next 5-10 years?
Nj patient,
White flight happened, then reversed.
#177 comrade
Sounds like you’re quoting me…
curiousd: Try this site.
http://citimortgage.domania.com/homepricecheck/index.jsp
#183 Doyle
I think many people have come to NYC since it became one of the world’s safest cities. They’d stop coming (just as they did in the ’70s) if they thought they were going to get knifed (regardless of how cheap it was). I think it’s a bit odd to argue that, because the dollar is imploding, NYC is certain to remain a beacon of wealth and safety.
Do I see hookers and dealers on the streets in 10 years?
Yes.
And, fwiw, I love this town.
3b [174],
Never before have there been so many outside the western world ready, willing and able to compete with us. Never, never have they had the capital that is available to them today. Millions in the US are living a lifestyle that they can not afford, financed by eastern workers who are saving approx 25% of their income. The richest, most powerful country in the world depends on savings from the world’s poorest. We buy what we can not afford and China builds factories to produce items in which its target market does not have the money to pay. Some system. What are we producing that the world’s consumers are clamoring for? High yield, toxic investments?
Not any conclusions, just a thought.
“White flight happened, then reversed.”
I agree, pretorius. But my question is, what is different about NYC now that would cause anyone to conclude that it is not possible for white flight (or perhaps we should say wealthy flight) to ever happen again.
When the economy weakens, crime increases. America’s cities may be in for a rough spot. During the last 1991/2 contraction, the murder rate in NYC was 6 times what it is now.
#187
All right, it’s settled. We’ll meet at Smith’s on 8th Ave (a classic dive two blocks from Port Authority) in 2017 and I’ll buy you a beer.
If you get knifed, you win.
njpatient Says:
September 14th, 2007 at 3:14 pm
Someone please tell me what is fundamentally different about NYC now than in 1985?
nj: Manhattan is a small area geographically. What has happened since 1985 is that there has been homogenization, with many neighborhoods being hollowed out, condo-fied and slapped together with money. While there is a bad street or bad housing development, there are no longer wholesale areas of Manhattan that are completely off-limits [with a couple of exceptions]. What this means is that there is less of the “undesirables” to creep back once the unmitigated might of affluence stops pounding in from all sides.
#190 Doyle
“If you get knifed, you win.”
LOL
ok – I can have the beer first, though, right?
Homogenization also means that people, homes, restaurants, and places of interest are starting to look the same no matter what neighborhood you are in…………WHICH SUCKS!
Doyle,
Are you a fan of bars located a block or two N, S, and W of Port Authority? I stop in one of them a couple times a month on my commute home.
Did you ever check out Siberia on 40th bw 8th and 9th? It closed a few months ago. Great place.
“While there is a bad street or bad housing development, there are no longer wholesale areas of Manhattan that are completely off-limits”
I agree with this, but I don’t think it takes much of a vacuum for that to change.
The world is going to look a heck of a lot different in 2017. I suspect that when Doyle and I have that beer, the state of Manhattan gentrification (or lack thereof) may be the least of the surprises to discuss. I may need a scotch, in fact.
NJPatient, I’ll leave that up to your assailant.
Pret, Yes I am a fan of Bars… anywhere. Never hit Siberia, I come from the North.
“Are you a fan of bars located a block or two N, S, and W of Port Authority? I stop in one of them a couple times a month on my commute home.”
Same here, except when I’m driving. Fridays are occasionally a pub crawl from the office to the PA.
Probably should get those drinks at Smiths asap.
With midtown office district expanding west, Smiths gonna get evicted and be replaced with steakhouse.
come to think of it, I can probably have quite a few beers once I’ve been perforated.
CF,#193
I dont know, I’d say relative to every other city in the country with the exception of maybe DC, NYC offers the most heterogeneity out there.
I grew up in the midwest, lived in milwaukee and chicago, and everthing and everbody looks the same there.
a steakhouse? In midtown? Never.
France peaked a long time ago but central Paris is still filled with rich people. It is the rest of the country that is aging, unemployed and increasingly angry, isolated immigrants. The same can happen here
http://seekingalpha.com/article/47025-dollar-index-to-hit-66
BCBob?
Top 3 bars with in 1 block of PABT
Holland
Andalucia
McCann’s
RIP Siberia
RIP old bar in PABT bowling alley
“RIP old bar in PABT bowling alley”
LOL
have had my drinks there a few times
#180 PRET: It should be obvious by now that the emergence of new markets helps, not hurts, the world’s financial centers.
It is not obvious IMO at all, it could just as easily mean, that as otehr areas of the world become the centers of the financial action, the centers can move.
NYC/London may still be important financial centers, they just may no longer be the most important, like say Franfort and Boston for instance.
there is now ritten rule that says London/NYC remain the financial centers. There are new players in teh game now;they may have different thoughts/ideas.
#188 BC Bob: Agreed. Sadly most Americans would not have a clue what you are talking about. They woul simply shout we are number 1, we are the best!!
I saw some blip before about a retired Senator from Alasks who said and I quote, Americans are getting fatter and dumber; he is not wrong.
Speaking of Hookers in NYC, there are the same amount of them now as back then. Back in the day I lived off Park in the 20’s and there were four to a corner ever night, Rudy busted down as he did not like the appearance they gave tourists. As long as they went indoors, did escort, or did it via village voice ads he would look the other way, hey a girls gotta pay the rent!!
I remember the cops who were pushing them off the streeet even recommending a seedy bar near my house and telling them to go in there for customers, but get off the street so they don’t get in trouble with Rudy.
Even on Wall St. there a quite a few places in business but as long as the tourists can’t see it who cares.
With techonolgy there is no reason to stand on a corner in the cold anymore. The same goes for the dealers in Thomkin park, they now all deliver via cell phone. The city still has all the same old sleezy nasty aspects of the 1980s, it is just high tech, instead of going to a seedy XXX movie in TS now Time Warner will let you watch it in your house.
We aren’t going back to the 1980’s, if you can sit in a nice hotel lobby or starbucks and set things up why go stand in the middle of the street chasing down cars.
Hey I took someone to smith and wollenskis for lunch today and that is a good steakhouse in Brooklyn!!!!! But Peter Lugar is King.
3185 njpatient: Its true though, and soem of them are quite annoying, especially when they act in what they perceive to be a NYC way;really really,annoying.
chicagofinance Says:
September 14th, 2007 at 3:40 pm
Homogenization also means that people, homes, restaurants, and places of interest are starting to look the same no matter what neighborhood you are in…………WHICH SUCKS!
If you think of the US as a rectangle and clip off 50 miles the length and breadth from each of the 4 sides, it’s the most homegenized concentration of land and people in the world.
SG, Justin, sync,
Thanks, between those (nj.com, trulia,willow,citimortgage) i got a lot of data…not the one i want but many surrounding. good stuff and very helpful.
Thx.
#208 Pete Lugar is King, although I must say I am quite partial to the Post House. They do nto rush you out either.
Like there aren’t enough off topic and opinionated posts already…
Best bars in NYC for a real cocktail
Flatiron Lounge
Pegu Club
Milk & Honey
Bemelman (Carlyle)
Employees Only
IMHO,
Rich
Damn, moderated…
#212
I’ve sat in the Post House on a wine week lunch until 530p (from a 12p start). Old-school waiters, no rush.
To anyone that posts in regards to a house in the 600k range and up, i have three questions:
1) how much are you putting down
2) what’s the best jumbo rate offer you’ve had
3) what the heck will that mortgage be?
just curious …
curious (137)-
Some counties have deeds online. You can follow transaction histories there.
Other than that, fo to the county clerk’s office with the lot and block number, and look it up.
#216 Doyle: And the best creamed spinach in the world!!
Ok what is the best restaurant to take an important middle aged German client to next week on an expense acount in NYC? Since everyone is offering opinions?
BC #189-
Spot on.
The biggest danger we face financially is complacency.
3b
Agreed, Luger’s is king; just dont ask for your steak any more cooked than medium rare, you’re likely to get thrown out.
#220
Jean Georges
Bost,
Is this the title?
From Amazon:
Manias, Panics, and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises (Wiley Investment Classics) (Paperback)
by Charles P. Kindleberger (Author), Robert Aliber (Author), Robert Solow (Foreword)
“The years since the early 1970s are unprecedented in terms of the volatility in the prices of commodities, currencies, real estate and stocks, and the…”
Most US hedge funds report August loss-tracker
http://www.reuters.com/articlePrint?articleId=USN1339735420070913
dream [204],
Yikes is right. My # is the low 60’s, no time frame.
All disclaimers.
Scribe [224],
That may be it. I’ll check later.
# njpatient Says:
September 14th, 2007 at 3:48 pm
a steakhouse? In midtown? Never.
Surely you’ve never been to Uncle Jack’s. I highly recommend it. Went there with the wife and her parents a couple weeks ago. Really, really good stuff.
John Says:
September 14th, 2007 at 4:05 pm
Speaking of Hookers in NYC, there are the same amount of them now as back then. Back in the day I lived off Park in the 20’s and there were four to a corner ever night,
Funny you mention this. I lived over in Gramercy Park a couple years ago and one night after a yankee game, I’m walking home with the girlfriend and i swear, one block from the 6 train, maybe at 27th and lex, there was a hooker on the corner. it was only like 1130!
We laughed our ass off.
Sidenote – some of the best (cheap) indian food is on 28th and lex – Curry in a Hurry. Seriously a v good meal for $10
I was on a date with a girl who lives in the West Village and she said the neighbors are up in arms now because the tranny hookers have migrated north from the Meatpacking district now that it’s been gentrified.
#220
I would bring a German to a steakhouse rather than going French (even though I like Jean Georges a great deal, skep).
Agreed Peter Lugar is king, and John, I assume you’re downtown?
I’m in midtown, and I’d consider taking the guy to Wolfgang’s, Del Frisco or Maloney and Porcelli.
Steaks, bars and hookers. I’m hungry, thirsty and h*rney
oh my!
#229
That’s funny – when I was a lad was when the West Village got gentrified and all the tranny hookers moved south to the meatpacking district. What’s old is new!!
“Surely you’ve never been to Uncle Jack’s.”
Surprisingly I haven’t, and I’ve tried to collect every single midtown steakery (and that’s no mean feat). Thanks, Blood – I’ll try it next.
John Says:
September 14th, 2007 at 4:34 pm
Ok what is the best restaurant to take an important middle aged German client to next week on an expense acount in NYC? Since everyone is offering opinions?
Danube – 30 Hudson St. (bet. Duane & Reade Sts.) Manhattan, NY 10013
212-791-3771
26 27 25 $86
To “dine like a Hapsburg”, try David Bouley’s “august” Austrian “fantasy” in TriBeCa, a “culinary marvel” for “sumptuous, smart” Viennese dining with a French twist topped off with “heavenly” desserts; the “gracious” service and “enchanting”, Klimt-esque backdrop make the “fin de siècle” “come to life”, so the “élan” is “worth the money”, especially if you waltz in early for a warm-up in the “sexy” bar.
from website
Danube restaurant, which received the number one ranking for décor in the Zagat Survey of New York City Restaurants, was created by Chef David Bouley in collaboration with Parisian designer Jacques Garcia and New York architect Kevin White. Jacques Garcia has earned acclaim throughout Europe for his outstanding design work in sites such as Paris’ Hotel Costes and Ladurée pastry shop.
The 70-seat Austrian-inspired restaurant also offers a bar and lounge that seats 25, as well as a private dining room for up to 30 guests. Danube, located on the southeast corner of Duane and Hudson Streets in Tribeca, features the cuisine of Austria with a menu that reflects the lighter and more refined influence of David Bouley’s cooking style.
John:
In my dot-com days, I had to submit an $18,500 bill on my corporate AmEx from this place. The meal was only for 16, but two jackasses got their hands on the (other) wine list. The food was only about $2,500 of the bill.
#235 Chi
Yes.
I took Mrs. Patient to Bouley’s Bouley last night, coincidentally. Was my first time, and now I know I’ll have to got to Danube as well.
Getting back to BC Bob’s prediction of 30-40% off the peak … I saw a few days ago i think 25-35 % off 2005 asking prices a a few people laughed. Not a problem.
But to those people, i ask you … are you looking at houses in the 600k and up range? If so, i would like to repeat 3 simple questions:
– how much are you putting down on the house 10% or 20%?
– what is the rate of the JUMBO loan that you are using (currently between 7-7.5%)
– what is that ghastly mortgage of yours?
And if those three don’t scare you enough, one more thing to consider – with the WSJ using the word ‘RECESSION’ repeatedly this week, and the NYT using it as well, do you really think it’s a smart move to be taking the plunge on a $3500-4500 mortgage at a time when housing prices are coming down off the BIGGEST RISE IN US HOUSING HISTORY?
Even if the rates take a small dip next week, why would you buy now, when they could just take another drop in two months?
Old New York:
Killarney Rose on Fulton
I used to follow my brother and his friends to go out drinking when I was 19. All I had to do was wear a suit and tie.
La Groceria [a bodega]
97th Street between Madison and Park
Required drinking age was determined whether you were tall enough to place money on the counter. Great for high school dances.
For real German beers he might also enjoy “Zum Schneider”
http://www.zumschneider.com/
njpatient Says:
September 14th, 2007 at 5:59 pm
#235 Chi Yes.I took Mrs. Patient to Bouley’s Bouley last night, coincidentally. Was my first time, and now I know I’ll have to got to Danube as well.
nj: I am not a huge fan of French, but these are great places and most people are impressed.
My wife and I set the personal tab record at Bouley. At least it was the March after Sept 11th, and they treated us like gold. At that meal, once we ordered desert, they gave us “one of everything”.
I am actually like the places that are more laid back such as Gotham, Union Sq. Cafe….I would do Luger’s more if it wasn’t such a pain in the ass.
I’m not sure if people saw this about Hovnanian
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/data?pid=avimage&iid=iM13_s_5cBQY
“I am not a huge fan of French”
Nor I, but Mrs. gets a bit tired of the steakhouses and old school Italians that I like to frequent. The ambiance at places like Daniel or Cote Basque can be really nice for a date, but when it comes the the more antiseptic joints like Le Bernardin I truly don’t see the point.
I’ve started doing my hair like Hovnanian. People take me much more seriously.
ChiFi (235)-
Gotta go with Jean-Georges for a business meeting. Service and hospitality are too hit-and-miss in all of Bouley’s restaurants. Can’t risk it when you’re business entertaining.
Montrachet often gets overlooked as a place that’s super well-run…and the food is always better than I expect. Very reliable.
Is it really about the food or the atmosphere? (Or hopefully, a combo.) My recommendations: Cafe des Artistes, Chanterelle, Rolfs (if you want German food). Steak? The Old Homestead. Celebs? Mr. Chows (Tribeca) or The Tribeca Grill.
Coming from somebody with warts and a snobby a-tee-tood in PA, take this for what it’s worth.
Don’t take der Deutscher to the fancy-pants German restaurants.
Have two places in mind before you meet him (if you’ve never met him in person).
If he’s tall, thin, slow-spoken and very polite (your typical image of a guy from Northern Ger) take him to a quiet place with things to look at, like a view. Better yet, someplace with history and a story. The guy wants a few minutes of interest but really wants to focus on getting to know as much about the deal as he can. Be careful not to overkill his time.
If he’s fat and jolly, and starts talking about how much he loves being in NY, take him to the place with the most exquisite desserts you can think of. Pamper him.
Peace – last time I was at old homestead, I ate an entire family of cows.
Ok – that’s enough of this. Time to go home and open a nice bottle of zin.
And John, when you shake his hand…firm grip, quick and maybe five shakes..more than our shake.
I can’t make any specific recommendation for a restaurant because I haven’t been here long enough to judge. But I do a good bit of international travel, and I can tell you that the last thing I want when I go to another country is to go to an “American” style restaurant.
patient (249)-
Super high-quality Zin…now there’s an underappreciated asset class.
Drinks great, lasts like Bordeaux, costs a fraction of the price of some overcropped, low-acid Calif. Cab…should be the official beverage of the LOD.
new (251)-
Agreed. “American” cuisine is anything that uses empty carbohydrate to induce insulin imbalance.
Another thought about restaurants…
Europe is much more compact than the US, and Germans are great travelers. France is next door. And there are lots of great Italian restaurants in Germany. I’d suggest something like Plataforma, a Brazilian steak house (churrascaria) at 316 W. 49th – in general Germans are fascinated with Brazil – or maybe Victor’s, a Cuban restaurant at 236 W. 52nd. A really good steak house would probably do the trick, too. I lived in Germany for three years in the ’90s, and I was convinced that there wasn’t a decent steak in Europe until I found Florentine steak…
New (254)-
It’s the Chianina beef that makes Florentine steak so good. There are farmers in the US who raise Chianina (which are really oxen). The meat is well-worth the search:
http://italianfood.about.com/gi/dynamic/offsite.htm?zi=1/XJ&sdn=italianfood&cdn=food&tm=19&f=00&su=p674.0.400.ip_p284.8.150.ip_&tt=28&bt=1&bts=1&zu=http%3A//www.chicattle.org/breedinformation.html
#255 moderated…a brilliant tome on the merits of Chianina beef.
Sorry, this is OT, but does anyone have an opinion on Rutgers part time MBA? I’ve been looking at some evening classes and this is one I’m considering.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB118978549183327730.html?mod=hpp_us_whats_news
A nice preview of Greenspan’s upcoming book…
In coming years, as the globalization process winds down, he predicts inflation will become harder to contain. Recent increases in the price of imports from China and a rise in long-term interest rates suggest “the turn may be upon us sooner rather than later.”
Left alone, he said, the Fed’s policy-making body, the Federal Open Market Committee, can keep inflation between 1% and 2%, but that could require forcing interest rates to double-digits, a level “not seen since the days of Paul Volcker,” his predecessor as Fed chairman. “I fear that my successors on the FOMC, as they strive to maintain price stability in the coming quarter century, will run into populist resistance from Congress, if not from the White House,” he writes.
If the Fed succumbs to that pressure, inflation could rise from a little over 2% at present to an average of 4% to 5% by the year 2030, he writes. Ten-year Treasury yields, now below 5%, will rise to “at least 8%” with the potential to go “significantly higher for brief periods.” This, he says, will lead to stagnant returns on stocks and bonds and much smaller gains in housing prices.
…..
Mr. Greenspan writes that in early 1997, he told his colleagues the Fed should raise interest rates as a “preemptive” move against a stock-market bubble. But transcripts of Fed meetings from that period do not support his book’s version of events: They show Mr. Greenspan argued for a rate increase principally because of inflation.
#252 clot
I always knew you were a man of taste.
MorCoNick Says:
September 14th, 2007 at 8:44 pm
Sorry, this is OT, but does anyone have an opinion on Rutgers part time MBA? I’ve been looking at some evening classes and this is one I’m considering.
M: only useful at NJ Corporations….if you want to make your career here…go for it
#238 Even if the rates take a small dip next week, why would you buy now, when they could just take another drop in two months?
And why would you buy now when prices are falling, and will be lower in 2 months.
#220
With so many great restaurants in the city, here are some of my recommendations:
Milos – 125 W 55th – Greek/Seafood
Sparks – 210 E 46th – Steak
L’Iimpero – 45 Tudor City Pl – Italian
Daniel – 60 E 65th – French
Verizon to sell Newark headquarters building
Verzion Communications plans to sell its New Jersey headquarters in downtown Newark, a 20-story landmark listed on state and national historic registers, and transfer some 600 jobs out of the city.
The phone company also is putting properties in Madison and Scotch Plains up for sale as part of a plan to consolidate call-center operations at a yet-to-be-determined location in North Jersey. As a result, Madison would lose 850 jobs and Scotch Plains about 150 jobs.
Verizon New Jersey spokesman Rich Young confirmed the consolidation plans today, saying each of the facilities slated for sale is underutilized, with the Newark headquarters only half full.
“The fact is, in many places … we have too much unused real estate,” Young said. “This is part of an effort to streamline our operations and achieve efficiencies by bringing more of our employees together in a single location.”
No employees would lose their jobs as part of the consolidation, Young said.
Grim (263)-
They’re just moving ’em to Basking Ridge.
Funny thing about Verizon, though: they manage not to pay anyone well…and when employees get relocated, the “package” Verizon offers is either a) take the offer, or b) find another job.
Increasingly, Verizon employees create their own option “c”…quite Verizon and move to NC.
I sent four families myself last year.
Since none of the RE bears are willing to touch actual questions, i’ll go back to restaurants:
Woo Lae Oak. It’s downtown, and you cook at your table, but the food is splendid.
Also, for trendy, good food, try Stanton Social. It’s on the LES and I highly recommend the oysters. For dessert, you cannot go wrong with the donuts, which are one of the top 5 desserts i’ve ever had.
I also fondly remember a tremendous dessert at Madame Janette on Aruba. I believe it was a blueberry pie with some ice cream. Truly incredible.
Exquite desserts.
si
How about vanilla pie with blueberry ice cream?
What actual questions were those you asked?
I have not been around as much as the rest here. I did enjoy Delmonicos, perhaps as much for the history, though I thought the steak tasty.
The Rainbow Room has a pleasant view, but I didn’t think so much of the dinner. The place fairly dripped with the decrepit aura of past glory.
The hedgies in London are calling it a match across the pond. Which institution is better equipped to handle a sprint or a marathon.
Countryslide vs. Northern Crock
Bunch of folks on here asking about houses that are 600-700-800k … I’m curious …
– how much are you putting down on the house, 10% or 20%?
– what is the rate of the JUMBO loan that you are using (currently between 7-7.5%)
– what is that ghastly mortgage of yours?
I’m guessing that nobody is buying houses this month. Nobody. Don’t give me the under contract crap. I’m talking about buying and moving in. (Cue Bi – ‘my neighbor just sold his house.’)
Rich in NNJ … if you have time, can you just poke around Bergen County to see if anything has sold this week in the over 500k, under 1 million range?
John, don’t listen to the yuppies on this board about restaurants, you will never be satisfied. Here’s where you need to take your middle aged german client:
Hooters of Manhattan
211 West 56th Street
You are a red-blooded American damn it! No need to pretend.
I can’t concentrate on anything real estate. The whole restaurant thing got me watching restaurant videos for the last half hour and my stomach is growling.
Pat, Are your initials PB&J?
Close.
**** Update ***
Got my August 16th commitment from countrywide **
Whoo hoooo
KL
PS Chi FI :
used to follow my brother and his friends to go out drinking when I was 19. All I had to do was wear a suit and tie.
Um your showing your age, when I was 19 we could…. drink. Was it that long ago???
doyle 184,
While the tourist dollars in NYC are nice fodder, if you want to see where the serious European capital has been spent, and is being spent, take a drive down I-85 between Petersburg, VA and Atlanta, GA. For a good many years they have come to this region. Part of the master plan?
#271 – Bloodbath
Buying now… it’s just the right time for us now..
20% down.. just over mid 500… 6.5 jumbo… another friend bought last month.. same range.. 10% down…. not sure about rate though..
#254
Plataforma is a particular favorite. I keep meaning to take the father-in-law there next time he’s in town. I kept my coaster on green for two hours the last time I was there.
#271
Sorry I missed the earlier questions, blood. Anyway, I now officially plan not to buy in ’07 or ’08. I’ll be putting 25-30% down when I take the plunge. G+d knows what the rate will be by then.
Renting? Bahahahahaaaaa
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lkt-zAAYRGA&NR=1
Greenspan Book Laments Course of Bush and G.O.P
By EDMUND L. ANDREWS and DAVID E. SANGER
Published: September 14, 2007
WASHINGTON, Sept. 14 — Alan Greenspan, who chaired the Federal Reserve for nearly two decades, spanning four presidents, writes in a long-awaited memoir to be published on Monday that he was mystified over the abandonment by President Bush and Vice President Cheney, along with the Republican-controlled Congress, of their party’s principles on spending and deficits.
OT- Tech Help (cont’d)
Thanks for the continued suggestions with my
iMac audio issue.
I have installed Mozilla/Firefox, Windows Media Player, MPlayer, and VLP (?). Still cannot get audio from Bloomberg. And today, I discover that video will not play from Asbury Park Press website, WTF?
My pc is back from repair, so the iMac issue is in the backburner. I’ve spent too much time on it already.
Hovnanian–Is anyone on this board going to their sale of the century? Just curious.
#281,
So now he blames Bush, very funny. Bush’s stupidity cost us 4,000 soldiers, Greenspan’s stupidity will make 10M people homeless. You figure who’s dumber.
Like a delayed NJ Transit train, price reductions are slowly moving to NYC.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/09/16/realestate/16cov.html?ref=realestate
282- I would have checked out the Union townhouses but they aren’t on the sale list. Although, now that we aren’t going to the Ren Faire today, maybe we’ll go take a peek.
#254 New
I lived in Frankfurt for a while and was introduced to “Blue steak” and Steak Tartare. Agree with all the others, avoid the German and Austrian places and even the French. Churrascaria is a great bet. Germans like meat. You go to a restraunt and even the green salad has bacon.
WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOW, inventory hit 100,000 units in NJ this week. Big jump from last week.
jcjp Says:
September 15th, 2007 at 12:02 am
#271 – Bloodbath
Buying now… it’s just the right time for us now..
20% down.. just over mid 500… 6.5 jumbo
6.5 % on the jump seems low … but if this is true, good luck with the mortgage payment (just guessing at the #’s, it looks like $3400 a month)
Condo auction tomorrow in Asbury Park.
http://www.sheldongood.com/auctionCalendarList.php?id=8
chicagofinance Says:
September 14th, 2007 at 9:04 pm
MorCoNick Says:
September 14th, 2007 at 8:44 pm
Sorry, this is OT, but does anyone have an opinion on Rutgers part time MBA? I’ve been looking at some evening classes and this is one I’m considering.
M: only useful at NJ Corporations….if you want to make your career here…go for it
Thanks. Based on the Business Week profile that I read, I got the impression that it was largely a pharma training program.
I’m not sure that will help me, but I’m still considering. Any other opinions welcome.
Frank #287,
What is your source?
Thanks.
If there are any TD Ameritrade users out there, keep an eye on your accounts and possibly your entire credit history.
They were apparently hacked, and practically everything was compromised — probably at an offshore center.
http://www.amtd.com/newsroom/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=264044
#265 Blood: Since none of the RE bears are willing to touch actual questions,
??????
any headed to the hovnanian fire sales today? let us know what the turn out and reductions are like!
does anything think that this type of price reductions will carry through the other new home sellers? toll brothers? pulte?
Just read that NYT article … maybe it’s just me, but i’m surprised people are jumping at houses that are $15,000-$30,000 off. To me, that’s nothing, especially when you consider how much the house went up in recent years.
Wonder how they’ll feel when, in a year, their neighbor sells for much lower and all of a sudden you’re sitting on -$40,000 equity. Means two things – you better love the house and you better love your job.
Frank #284,
I just read the NYT article; it seems to making the point that Manhattan and proximity to Manhattan is sustaining prices.
As NYC becomes a sanitized playground for the rich, is becomes insular and predictable. Those are not the qualities that made NYC what it WAS.
Greenspan, I wonder what those used copies of Maestro are fetching on ebay?
#297
Sadly true
I can’t wait for the opening bell on Monday! Wall St. usually goes into gyrations whenever Greenspan sneezes. Cash will be king once again if his predictions in the book pan out. It won’t affect my decision of renting vs. buying (looking to buy soon). The best advice to weather the storm is to live below your means and save as much as you can.
The RU part time program didn’t leave me with the right impression… the school had the attitude that if you work in the Route 1 / 287 corridor, you’re not going to make it to NYC or Philly in time for a 6:30 weeknight class start time, so they acted as if they were the only game in town. Most of the pharma people I know who get part time MBAs end up having to leave their companies because employers are not about to give a lab person a finance job just because you now have an MBA. The part time MBA makes sense if you’re being fast-tracked or otherwise developed by your employer, because for most regular joes your employer will do nothing for you once you finish. You’re better off going to RU full time because you’ll have access to internships and networking opportunities that a part time program can’t offer.
I was thinking of an MBA but after some gut-checking, I knew it wasn’t for me. Also in my case I didn’t want to have no life for 4 years, only to get a job paying less than what I’m currently making.
#291,
My source for inventory is realtor.com. I collect data for all zip in NJ.
Is there an ETF that shorts the XHB?
jmacdaddio #301,
Also in my case I didn’t want to have no life for 4 years, only to get a job paying less than what I’m currently making.
Plus, the quality of work sucks for lots of MBAs. My business partners spend their days counting and plotting trends on Excel and suggesting projects to improve and hosting meetings. It sounds cool but it is boring work. I am sure lots of MBAs do more interesting work but too many of them don’t. Interestingly enough, a lot of the MBAs I know who have what I’d consider boring jobs got their MBAs at RU or CUNY.
Calm down mate, grab a bitter or a lager.
http://ie.youtube.com/watch?v=V5GYFOvsKFw&NR=1
jmacdaddio Says:
September 15th, 2007 at 12:57 pm
The RU part time program didn’t leave me with the right impression… the school had the attitude that if you work in the Route 1 / 287 corridor, you’re not going to make it to NYC or Philly in time for a 6:30 weeknight class start time, so they acted as if they were the only game in town.
jmac
In a lot of part-timers cases, though, they are probably right.
I was thinking of an MBA but after some gut-checking, I knew it wasn’t for me. Also in my case I didn’t want to have no life for 4 years, only to get a job paying less than what I’m currently making.
I can associate with this, but I’m stagnating in IT without strong industry expertise. I would like to gain more expertise(job security, $$) so this may be the ticket.
http://bwnt.businessweek.com/pt_mbasearch/compare.asp
I am really hungry and thanks for the great suggestions, did go to Uncle Jacks once and the Kobe steaks were two hundred and came naked without even a single french fry, the bill was $500 a person WOW. I will tell you what I decide on Monday.
With the number of excess homes rising amid falling demand, the negatives in the housing market will “continue putting downward pressure on prices,” said Seamus Symth, an economist for Goldman Sachs, who says home prices were plunging at a 9% annual rate in the most recent data. Goldman expects home prices to fall 7% this year and another 7% next year.
#303,
The closest is SRS.
Anyone ever eat at per se? Three tasting menus for $250 each. If the food is no good, we won’t waste our time.
http://www.savorynewyork.com/wiki/Per_se
Hoboken inventory hit 498 this weekend, back from vacation and trying to get out of town. WOW.
Take 2
T-Fal Corp. to cease production in Millville
http://tinyurl.com/2oejmd
Oh, yeah.
Macy’s. Our old friend Macy’s. Offered packages. Just expired. Laid off after expiration. No release. Sorry, no link.
and more coming.
I heard that at the mall. Heresay.
Hearsay? Is the resident editor in the house?
http://tinyurl.com/yslxsg
“Mr. Greenspan will have plenty of opportunity to defend his record. His interview was only one of a series he is giving to publicize his memoir..”
Oh, joy. Weeks of AG with his thumbs in his suspenders.
http://tinyurl.com/ytjvxe
“did not want her full name used because her husband still does not know. ..
‘There are strict taboos against money that isn’t earned with sweat from the brow,'”
= = =
Yeah. And there should be. Otherwise, if you play, you pay. No bailouts. No sweat, no bailout.
$100k. Wow.
Stuff I don’t tell my husband:
“I hit a pothole and now the front end shakes.” Instead, “Honey, will you take my car for a ride, I think it must need an oil change.”
Or, “There were no boxes of Smart Start left at the store. I had to get CapNCrunch.” Instead of, “I’m sick of your health kick. You’ve been eating healthy since April..when can I have MY JUNK again?”
I’m not saying don’t go for an MBA, I’m just saying to think carefully before you do. In my case, I was considering it as an escape route and I knew that was not the right reason to pursue it. If you have an interest in the business world, go for it, but don’t think an MBA will lead to a cushy 6 figure plus position someplace.
Man Jailed for 3 Days Over 50-Cent Toll.
http://www.thebostonchannel.com/news/14112594/detail.html
Here are two real deals.
1) $0.5M price reduction from OLP: #4965627
2) $0.5M price reduction from OLP: #4966714
Pat (310)-
Thomas Keller is one of the most gifted people I’ve ever had the pleasure of knowing. He is not Robuchon, he’s not Bouley, he’s not Boulud. A lot of what he does can be derivative, contrived and- on occasion- flat-out hack deconstructions of classic ideas. However, that leaves the other 90% of his game, which is as good as any chef alive.
The thing that really sets him apart is that he wants to be in the kitchen every single day. He is a superb technician who sweats the details and never tires of the pursuit of perfection. It rubs off on everyone who works for him, so that when you dine chez Keller, you get the feeling that everyone who serves you will keep bringing you stuff and buffing you up until you say “no mas”…even if “no mas” comes the next morning. His personal enthusiasm and love of food is reflected in all who work for him.
Most chefs break down well before age 50. It’s far too easy to publish cookbooks, do TV, go on the celebrity circuit and delegate the real work- cooking- to underpaid and undertalented sycophants. The extent to which Keller has resisted this (and managed to make his forays into media tasteful and meaningful) make him, in my book, the best American-born chef ever.
Thanks for the confirm. One of our nieces just finished at Pitt Culinary and said so, and you’ve sealed the deal.
#282 – Orion – Can’t get audio from Bloomberg.com or from the terminal software? If you are a subscriber (and even if you are not) just call the customer service numbers listed on the website, you will get a human immediately and they should be able to help you. Hopefully you get it working. Harold
Clot, you know way too much about everything and it frightens me.
Rumor has it that Ara Hovnanian has his own house for sale in rumson nj. Thoughts ?
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Harold #323
Thanks, I’ll give it a try.
Doyle (324)-
Not half as much as I scare myself. One or two bad days in a row, and I might be gobbling Clonopin like it’s Pez.
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