The Northern New Jersey real estate market continued to slump in September, with contracts for sale falling by the worst amount this year. September contracts fell approximately 21.5% year over year (GSMLS) and 25.7% (NJMLS) , with the largest declines seen in Bergen, Essex and Morris counties.
Looking at the GSMLS data, It is clear that the strength seen in the early part of this year has faded substantially. While first quarter contracts were at a respectable 0.2% decline (YOY), third quarter contracts were down a sizable 12.5% (YOY). NJMLS shows a similar pattern with first quarter sales showing considerable strength up 4.9%, only to fade to a -10.6% in the third quarter.
Contract sales in Bergen, via NJMLS, tumbled substantially in September, with a decline of 28.2% year over year. Even more sobering are the multiyear declines seen across all areas. From the peak in 2004, contract sales in Bergen are down more than 40%.
GSMLS Contracts Data
(Click for XLS Spreadsheet)
NJMLS Contracts Data
(Click for XLS Spreadsheet)
From MarketWatch:
Mortgage applications down 2.7% last week
The volume of mortgage applications filed last week decreased by 2.7%, coinciding with a week-to-week drop in interest rates on fixed-rate loans, the Mortgage Bankers Association said Wednesday.
Also on a seasonally adjusted basis, volume was up 0.4% compared with the same week in 2006, according to the group’s weekly survey for the week ended Sept. 28.
Applications filed for loans to refinance existing mortgages were down 3.8% last week compared with the previous week. Home purchase mortgage applications slipped a seasonally adjusted 1.8%.
The four-week moving average for all loans was up 0.5%, the data showed.
From Bloomberg:
Credit Suisse’s Dougan Says Mortgage Turmoil May Last
Credit Suisse Group Chief Executive Officer Brady Dougan said the market for mortgage credit will be “problematic” for as long as 18 months.
Rising U.S. home-loan defaults and a surge in borrowing costs led to “frozen” markets in the third quarter, Dougan told investors today at a conference organized by Merrill Lynch & Co. in London. Credit Suisse, Switzerland’s second-biggest bank after UBS AG, “remains in a strong liquidity position,” according to Dougan’s presentation posted on the bank’s Web site.
“We have seen severe investor pull-back and origination has all but dried up,” Dougan said in his speech, which was Webcast. “U.S. mortgage credit will remain problematic through this year and perhaps through 2008,” he said, adding that he doesn’t see a return to more stable market conditions “any time soon.”
From the IHT:
Credit Suisse to cut 170 more jobs as a result of subprime crisis
Credit Suisse Group said Wednesday it will lay off 170 more employees, almost all in New York, as a result of market turmoil caused by the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis.
The reductions in the investment banking unit will be on top of the 150 layoffs announced last week for New York and London, said spokesman Marc Dosch in confirming a report in the Wall Street Journal. Dosch said the cuts were in line with the reduction in client demand.
Is TD planning on gutting Commerce ops in Cherry Hill and Mt. Laurel?
From the WSJ:
Countrywide Tells Workers,
‘Protect Our House’
By JAMES R. HAGERTY and JONATHAN KARP
October 3, 2007; Page B1
For Countrywide Financial Corp., this time it’s personal. At least that’s what a top executive says.
Having suffered a barrage of negative headlines while battling to shore up its finances and shrink its work force of 60,000 by as much as 20%, the nation’s largest home-mortgage lender is launching a PR blitz aimed at repairing its reputation. And it starts inside the company.
For the demoralized employees who remain, the new campaign means wristbands with the phrase “Protect Our House” and pep talks promising to keep “amply” rewarding the most successful among them amid a struggle with the sharp drop in mortgage lending as defaults soar and house prices decline.
…
To counter criticism that its lending practices are to blame for a surge in foreclosures, Countrywide plans to emphasize its “mission” of helping Americans become homeowners, the transcript says. “I want employees to look down at their wristbands and remember our fundamental mission to help customers achieve the American Dream, and to help them withstand those malicious outward attacks and to motivate them to continue on our journey with unwavering conviction,” the transcript quotes Mr. Gissinger as saying.
The company also is reaffirming its pugnacious side. “We’re competitive to a fault,” he says in the transcript, adding: “Our divisions will have clear goals, built on our ruthless attack strategies to continue to grow profitably. Growing, winning and being the best is also hard wired into our DNA.”
The combative tone reflects the blunt-spoken style of Angelo Mozilo, Countrywide’s chairman and chief executive, who helped to found the company in 1969.
“We’re demonized something fierce,” Mr. Mozilo said in an interview two weeks ago.
Great stuff….thank you for the Excel files…very handy!!!
Countryslide protects its house while Mozillo sells his.
“Countrywide CEO sold big as stock dropped.
Quick changes in Mozilo’s trading plan raise red flags, experts say. The mortgage firm says the sales were in line with company policy.”
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-mozilo29sep29,0,3110113.story?page=1&coll=la-home-center
Two things.
I’ll add the multiyear for all counties/mls systems when I get a chance.
Essex Q3 on NJMLS is incorrectly identified as an increase, it should be red, not green.
This is preposterous! We live in bubble-wrap! Sales can not fall further!
It’s not so much a green, it’s more of a aqua or turquoise…
grim Says:
October 3rd, 2007 at 7:47 am
Countrywide Tells Workers,
‘Protect Our House’
“I want employees to look down at their wristbands and remember our fundamental mission to help customers achieve the American Dream, and to help them withstand those malicious outward attacks and to motivate them to continue on our journey with unwavering conviction,” the transcript quotes Mr. Gissinger as saying.
grim: ugh….wristbands? It is a hospital? How about “toe tags”…it seems more appropriate….
JB,
How do these numbers compare with Sept 2005? Do you have it readily availible? I though 2006 numbers were already down from ’05,
#5 wristbands –
those stupid gimmicks are so demoralizing to employees. i worked at a company that did that type of stuff from time to time, and it made us all feel as if management thought we were moronic kindergarteners. actually, they probably did think that!
instead of finding real solutions, it’s all slogans and cheerleading.
Grim: Your Journalistic insticts are kicking in. I think you should start writing articles and start selling them to Ganett.
Great job on those numbers.
Dear Mr. Mozilo,
Eff you.
Mozillo:
“I was laying on the tanning bed and forgot to take my wrist watch off, you know the Movado with the diamond studded hands I bought after the stock sales, and I’s look down after I take it off and its frigging all less tan than the rest of my arm, so den I get an epihpany, you know like the Virgin Mary and those kids in Yugoslavia or whatever, why not make the rank and file where wrist bands, maybe with a little slogan that’ll get em all fired up. Of course I had to go and lay my arm back on the tanning bed for an hour to make sure that it matched the rest of my body..”
“The subprime slowdown is confined to only the housing sector”
Yeah right!!!
http://www.autoblog.com/2007/10/02/ford-to-suspend-super-duty-production/
Beginning Monday, October 8, FoMoCo will suspend production of its F-series Super Duty pickup for two weeks. According to Ford, sales have slumped because of the housing slowdown (Damn subprime mortgage market!), a variable that seems to have a profound effect on pickup sales. Ford’s sales analyst, George Pipas, says that the production halt is a way to avoid excess inventory and has nothing to do with September’s sales decline of Ford pickups by 20.8-percent.
These declines are still small compared to what is happening in california. In order to see huge price declines fast we need even larger declines in the sales. If that doesnt happen, the prices may decline slowly. That is what I am seeing in the towns where I am lookling to buy a house. I want a big fat kill soon!!
From the peak in 2004, contract sales in Bergen are down more than 40%.
When they’re down 60% and you see a couple sitting on their front step in a tee shirt, crying, during an ice storm, in January with a “for sale” sign on the front lawn, then make a low ball offer at 20% off the asking… at least.
How do these numbers compare with Sept 2005? Do you have it readily availible? I though 2006 numbers were already down from ‘05
I’ll add those numbers and update the spreadsheet a bit later this week.
Mozilo selling $138M of stock…..but wait ‘its in line with company policy’ says the Chief Legal Officer.
OF COURSE IT IS MOZILO IS THE CHAIRMAN OF THE BOARD AND CEO!!!!! What a joke. This is why some of these guys end up in the orange jump suits.
From the WSJ:
Deutsche Bank to Take $3.09 Billion Charge
On Leveraged Loans, Credit Products
By RAGNHILD KJETLAND
October 3, 2007 8:34 a.m.
FRANKFURT — Deutsche Bank Wednesday said it will book 2.2 billion euros ($3.09 billion) in charges on leveraged loans and trading books, although third-quarter net profit will still exceed the year-earlier figure because of tax credits and capital gains.
The German banking giant will take a €700 million charge on leveraged loans and loan commitments in the third quarter, as well as a €1.5 billion charge on structured credit products, residential mortgage-backed securities and relative value trading in both credit and equities, it said. Valuations have declined in the wake of the meltdown in U.S. subprime mortgage lending, as investors lost trust in credit products and banks have had difficulty selling those products at previously high prices.
Bost, #7
There have been a couple of these situations where the top guy was dumping stock right before a major sell-off.
I posted a story about the mortgage brokerage out on Long Island – I forget the name now. But someone was dumping stock right before the announcement that they were shutting their doors.
I don’t see how they get away with it.
Where’s the SEC?
Clearly, they knew bad news was right ahead.
I was wondering when Deutsche would chime in.
We still haven’t heard anything from WaMU yet. That should be pretty brutal.
The question now seems to be what the official date of the recession’s start is going to be.
When NAR releases its September sales numbers on the 24th (Don’t forget to look for the downward revisions to August and July.) even the clowns on CNBC will start talking recession, and not just a housing slowdown.
Paging Booya Bob: we need a Spring 08 bloodbath post.
SG,
I’m pretty sure Gannett, or any of the big newspaper companies don’t have anyone on staff who can produce something like this, but I would guess they just couldn’t find a way to pay JB for his work.
Now stealing it…
Great tables! The blips up in Jan/Feb confirm the feeling that I had at the beginning of 2007 that contract activity really picked up — in Tenafly we actually had multiple offers, just like in the good old days!
Still, eyeballing the raw numbers I can’t help but think that the monthly variations jump around a lot, and thus perhaps we cannot draw any long term conclusions from them.
“We’re competitive to a fault,”
Ain’t THAT the truth!
hi
Glad to see that sales #’s continue to plummet…now for the prices…
i asked my realtor (south jersey) what people were getting these days if the prices were reasonably set.
Realtor said, buyers were asking 10-12% below, and getting 8% under ask price.
any opinions…
I saw the indie flick/documentary “Maxed Out” last night. Can’t help but feel sorry for some of the folks who are caught up in the debt spiral where suicide/death is the only way out of debt. As roof crumbles in on many of the home buyers who bought (borrowed actually) homes they couldn’t afford, we are going to see a lot more agony.
Maybe it’s me, but I expected the numbers to be worse.
Tcm #13
Agree – it’s condescending and dumb, and perhaps the worst thing about it is that it sends the message that the company has no substantive solutions to its problems.
Just yesterday I heard from a parasite realtor telling me about “low interest rates” and how “now is a fantastic time to buy.”
billz- Realtor said, buyers were asking 10-12% below, and getting 8% under ask price.
any opinions…
That seems similar to what I’m seeing up north on the houses I’m tracking. It all depends on the asking price, if you’re too high, you get no offers. If you’re reasonably priced you get offers 5-15% off asking and then it’s negotiation time for something in between.
There are people that are starting their listings 10% below the reasonable market level and those guys seem to be selling at or near asking.
Existing inventory comps are all over the place, you could be looking at a house and a similar listing is asking 30-40% more and it may be just a little bit “better” and neither are selling so they’re both over priced.
I’d say we’re about 10-15% off peak 2006 prices right now.
From Bloomberg:
Bernanke Spoke With Rubin as Credit Crisis Worsened (Update1)
By Craig Torres
Enlarge Image/Details
Oct. 3 (Bloomberg) — The Federal Reserve’s Aug. 7 decision to keep interest rates unchanged set off a chain of high-level discussions with Wall Street executives, money managers and cabinet officials that culminated in Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s public about-face 10 days later, according to records of his schedule.
Starting with a phone call from former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin the day after the August rate meeting, Bernanke’s appointments included Lewis Ranieri, founder of Hyperion Capital Management Inc., and Raymond Dalio, president of Bridgewater Associates.
The information on Bernanke’s calls and contacts was obtained under the Freedom of Information Act by Kenneth H. Thomas, a lecturer at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School in Philadelphia. The records depict a chairman who “has made a very good effort to get up to date with what is going on,” Thomas said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ae21h4HAD6Ag&refer=home
“I don’t see how they get away with it.
Where’s the SEC?”
The SEC has been hamstrung by the current administration. Bush has never been a fan of insider trading enforcement.
Scribe [35],
I’d like to see the trading statements of Hyperion and Bridgewater, before the .50 cut.
Maybe it’s me, but I expected the numbers to be worse.
Keep in mind we’re comparing bad (2006) to worse (2007).
Barring nuclear annihilation, sales will not fall to zero, or anywhere near zero. It simply will not happen. There is a good level of churn in each market that will result in sales. Unless we come up with a cure for death, divorce, retirement and job relocations, we’re going to see sales taking place.
Realize that for long-term homeowners, the market is still *fantastic*. If they set a realistic price their property will sell very quickly. The subset that can’t drop their price is small in comparison.
from a comment on last nights thread
I would suggest that NJ may be in the most trouble financially out of the top 5. Massachusetts has a strong and growing biotech/pharma industry bu they still have a problem with the 25-35 demographic leaving the state and the state has had a net negative population growth for the last several years. Its is also experiencing a real estate bubble similar to NJ’s.
Hawaii Has the tourism aspect to support it and this is unlikely to change outside of a drastic natural disaster.
I do not know much about Connecticut but i do know that they have seen recent pharma growth and development in the state and has some solid heavy industry located there.
In NJ pharma is not going to see any significant growth now or in the near future as the base for growth has already been developed in California, Boston, and NC. NJ is also experiencing a 25-35 demographic exodus while taxing people into a hole and housing costs are some of the most expensive in the country. On top of all of this consider the unfunded pension liability the state is facing (30+ Billion)and it is set to grow drasticly (New Jersey’s mounting funding crisis could translate into a $70 billion shortfall in a matter of years http://tinyurl.com/35kr73, the infrastructure repairs needed (12 billion @ approx 500 million/yr and will probably go higher), and a budget deficit of about 4 billion that is projected to continue into at least 2009.
if you take a look at the state budget you would need to cut most of the state aid programs ( they make up about 70% of the budget) just to catch up to financial obligations.
My understanding is that a state cannot legally declare bankruptcy. SO what is left, A federal bailout, or can major creditors seize assets?
Net Tax-Supported Debt Per Capita
1 Massachusetts $4,128 Aa2
2 Hawaii $3,905 Aa2
3 Connecticut $3,624 Aa3
4 New Jersey $3,276 Aa3
5 New York $2,569 Aa3
Net Tax-Supported Debt as a % of 2004 Personal Income
1 Hawaii 12.1%
2 Massachusetts 9.8%
3 Connecticut 8.0%
4 New Jersey 7.9%
5 New York 6.7%
pretorius # 165 Says:
October 2nd, 2007 at 9:03 pm
“Is there a precedent for any US state being in this bad a shape financially before???”
See page 5. New Jersey debt one of the highest but consistent with closest peers New York and Connecticut http://tinyurl.com/3be2jg.
from a comment on last nights thread
I would suggest that NJ may be in the most trouble financially out of the top 5. Massachusetts has a strong and growing biotech/pharma industry bu they still have a problem with the 25-35 demographic leaving the state and the state has had a net negative population growth for the last several years. Its is also experiencing a real estate bubble similar to NJ’s.
Hawaii Has the tourism aspect to support it and this is unlikely to change outside of a drastic natural disaster.
I do not know much about Connecticut but i do know that they have seen recent pharma growth and development in the state and has some solid heavy industry located there.
In NJ pharma is not going to see any significant growth now or in the near future as the base for growth has already been developed in California, Boston, and NC. NJ is also experiencing a 25-35 demographic exodus while taxing people into a hole and housing costs are some of the most expensive in the country. On top of all of this consider the unfunded pension liability the state is facing (30+ Billion)and it is set to grow drasticly (New Jersey’s mounting funding crisis could translate into a $70 billion shortfall in a matter of years http://tinyurl.com/35kr73, the infrastructure repairs needed (12 billion @ approx 500 million/yr and will probably go higher), and a budget deficit of about 4 billion that is projected to continue into at least 2009.
if you take a look at the state budget you would need to cut most of the state aid programs ( they make up about 70% of the budget) just to catch up to financial obligations.
My understanding is that a state cannot legally declare bankruptcy. SO what is left, A federal bailout, or can major creditors seize assets?
Net Tax-Supported Debt Per Capita
1 Massachusetts $4,128 Aa2
2 Hawaii $3,905 Aa2
3 Connecticut $3,624 Aa3
4 New Jersey $3,276 Aa3
5 New York $2,569 Aa3
Net Tax-Supported Debt as a % of 2004 Personal Income
1 Hawaii 12.1%
2 Massachusetts 9.8%
3 Connecticut 8.0%
4 New Jersey 7.9%
5 New York 6.7%
pretorius # 165 Says:
October 2nd, 2007 at 9:03 pm
“Is there a precedent for any US state being in this bad a shape financially before???”
See page 5. New Jersey debt one of the highest but consistent with closest peers New York and Connecticut.
We had been looking at oceanfront property in New Jersey and fell in love with Spring Lake and with the Bay head area. Still, despite our attraction to the area, the head took over from the heart and after crunching the numbers we decided that NJ oceanfront property is just not worth the price.
Take Spring lake for instance, the nice homes are in the over $5 million range. To get to lower Manhattan from there involves either a lousy train ride or driving to the boat. The beach is nice, but there is a road between your house and the beach, and it is warm for just a few months each year. Locally, traffic is dreadful, which detracts from everyday living. I could go on, but the point is made.
Instead of paying those economic and lifestyle costs, compare the cost of a place on Barbados, St. John, etc. The houses are much less expensive, better views and climate, can be enjoyed all 12 months AND, even factoring in the cost of fractional ownership of a jet for easy travel, and the cost of a flat in or overlooking the City it is still a bargain compared to buying high-end beachfront at the Shore.
Not that Bay Head, Mantoloaking, Spring Lake, etc are not very nice, they just can’t compare to the overall island experience. Hell, even the travel from Teterboro airport to the islands is part of the relaxing, as opposed to the pain in the …ummm… neck travel down the G.S. Parkway and Rt. 35.
Why pay top dollar for a mid-level (relatively speaking) experience?
Johnatan nice info…maybe sellers will see the light and start lowering asking pricess?
Since when does a beach house have to be a 5M dollar mansion?
You’re there on the weekends during the summer. You’re probably gonna eat out so why should you have a high end kitchen?
You can own something in neigbooring towns for a fraction of your 5M spring lake house and spend you mid level experience there.
Considering you’ll probably be there around ten weekends during the summer, you’re looking to spend 30 days a year there.
30 days a year and a 5 million dollar tag is disgusting not to mention taxes and maintance.
If you don’t like to stay local like I do then invest 250K in timeshares and see the world.
my two cents!
I’ve never considered any shore town in NJ a great vacation destination.
If you can’t see your toes in the water, it’s not a beach, it’s a dirty pond.
Grim (4)-
Isn’t this Under Armour’s motto?
“For the demoralized employees who remain, the new campaign means wristbands with the phrase “Protect Our House” and pep talks promising to keep “amply” rewarding the most successful among them amid a struggle with the sharp drop in mortgage lending as defaults soar and house prices decline.”
As someone who lives at the Jersey Shore, I can report an ability to see my toes in the water…also that numbers of crabs, clams and the birds that eat them are holding steady if not increasing.
Oh, Observer, your dilemma is so heartbreaking…5M to spend, private jets… Have you considered North Carolina?
toshiro (24)-
Oh, we’ve heard from WaMu. They shut down Long Beach Correpondent, one of the worst subprime sausage vendors there ever was. The writedown on that was seismic.
Heh, heh…I said “sausage”. Heh, heh…
Mozilo’s latest speech:
Wir müssen zum Ende kämpfen!! Geben Sie nie oben!! Nie Rückzug! Verwenden Sie die Frauen, verwenden Sie die Kinder, verwenden Sie das alte, verwenden Sie das schwache, was auch immer es!! nimmt! Wir hören nie auf, an allen möglichen Kosten zu bestehen! Ich muß, Wiederholung, Muß schütze mein Vermögen!!
bergen (34)-
Otteau’s Fall dog & pony show has a segment where he does a days-on-market vs. selling/listing price comparison.
It completely backs up your statement. Homes that a correctly priced to today’s reality sell within 30 days at close to asking.
Homes that are not priced properly either: a) expire, or b) take forever to sell, at huge discounts to the orignal asking.
I’ll be attending the October 15th dog & pony show.
Democrats to Unveil Foreclosure Plan
Idea sounds good however I just don’t understand why I should have to pay for other peoples misfortunes.
Your thoughts?
Oh, Observer, your dilemma is so heartbreaking…
His/her demographic represents an important segment of our marketplace, we can’t ignore it or brush it off as insignificant.
Although, I confess, It’s a dilemma I wouldn’t mind having.
What happens to the shore markets when the high net worth crowd decides that it’s cheaper to go elsewhere? She/He makes an interesting argument, one that I think makes sense.
# 47
the speech in english for those interested
Wir müssen zum Ende kämpfen!! Geben Sie nie oben!! Nie Rückzug! Verwenden Sie die Frauen, verwenden Sie die Kinder, verwenden Sie das alte, verwenden Sie das schwache, was auch immer es!! nimmt! Wir hören nie auf, an allen möglichen Kosten zu bestehen! Ich muß, Wiederholung, Muß schütze mein Vermögen!!
We must fight to the end!! Never give up!! Never retreat! If you use the women, use the children, use you the old, use you the weak, whatever it!! takes! We never stop existing at all possible costs! I must, repeat, must protect my fortune!!
Just for a giggle, here’s the first communication Foxtons has had with their victims…er, listing clients:
October 2, 2007
Re: Foxtons, Inc.
Dear Sir/Madam:
You are receiving this letter because your property is listed for sale with Foxtons, Inc. (“Foxtons”). We regret to inform you that, due to the recent down turn in the residential real estate market, Foxtons has decided to conduct an orderly liquidation of its business. To accomplish this goal, Foxtons is filing a voluntary Chapter 11 bankruptcy proceeding with the United States Bankruptcy Court for the District of New Jersey. You will be receiving information concerning the bankruptcy case over the next few days.
Your property continues to be advertised on Foxtons’ website and/or your area’s Multiple Listing Service, as it was prior to Foxtons’ bankruptcy filing. Moreover, the Foxtons signage at your property, if any, can continue to be displayed pending further notice.
As part or the liquidation of its assets, Foxtons is asking the bankr uptcy court to authorize the assumption and assignment of your listing agreement with Foxtons to another broker. The identity of the proposed successor broker has not yet been determined. If the bankruptcy court grants this request, and if a successor broker makes a sufficient bid for Foxtons’ listing agreements, then the listing agreement for the sale of your home would be assigned to another real estate broker. With the exception of the identity of the listing broker, all of the terms of your listing agreement with Foxtons would remain the same. We hope to have this assignment process completed within fifteen days. You will receive further information from the bankruptcy court concerning this proposal.
We regret any inconvenience to you caused by this situation and hope to transition your listing agreement to another broker as quickly and smoothly as possible.
Thank you.
Very truly yours,
Mark Horvat
Vice President of Sales
“…if a successor broker makes a sufficient bid for Foxtons’ listing agreements…”
Coffee hits computer screen.
Bid? They are trying to sell them?
Make Money, why not invest 0K in hotels and see the world?
Grim # 51
For years me and the wife have vacationed in the virgin islands for a week for the same price that we would pay to spend a week at the jersey shore in a similar level of accommodations/environment. What drives the jersey shore is the same thing i had to break my wife of, and that is the nostalgia factor. Outside of the idealized memories people have of their trips to the shore when they were younger, vacationing there for anything other then a day or two doesnt make sense $$ wise
Housing layoffs
Struggling companies in the mortgage and housing sectors have cut nearly 100,000 jobs this year.
Company Number of cuts
(min. 200)
Countrywide Financial* 11,520
Masco 8,000
American Home Mortgage 6,000
First Magnus 5,940
New Century 5,200
Lennar* 4,400
Capital One Financial 3,900
Stock Building Supply 3,500
ACC Capital Holdings 2,600
SunTrust 2,400
Lehman Brothers 2,050
Residential Capital 2,000
Pulte Homes 2,000
First American 1,900
ABN Amro Mortgage 1,700
Washington Mutual 1,640
Accredited Home Lenders 1,600
First Horizon 1,560
UBS* 1,500
HSBC mortgage businesses 1,460
IndyMac Bancorp 1,400
Option One 1,390
National City 1,300
WMC Mortgage Corp.* 1,221
USG Corp. 1,100
LandAmerica Financial 1,100
Aegis Mortgage 1,000
Mortgage Lenders Network 900
First NLC Financial Services 850
Silver State Mortgage 800
NovaStar Financial 775
First National Bank 753
Fifth Third 700
Lending Tree 650
E-Loan 627
Morgan Stanley 600
Wells Fargo Home Mortgage 500
NetBank* 450
Impac Mortgage Holdings 450
EquiFirst 430
Credit Suisse 350
Foxtons 350
Delta Financial 300
CIT Home Lending 300
Bear Stearns 240
Fannie Mae 200
Block Mortgage 200
Mohawk Industries 200
Data: MarketWatch, MortgageDaily.com,
Challenger Gray & Christmas
Interesting stuff.
Make Money, why not invest 0K in hotels and see the world?
Hotels equals renting a room for 300-500 dollars per night. I’d rather own the darn room 2 months a year.
And pass down a vacation tradition to my children. It’s a European thing.
JN Says:
October 3rd, 2007 at 11:38 am
Democrats to Unveil Foreclosure Plan
Idea sounds good however I just don’t understand why I should have to pay for other peoples misfortunes.
Your thoughts?
Beyond whether it comes out of my tax dollars or not it still doesn’t make sense. You shouldn’t intervene with this, it will only prolong the pain.
People bought houses they couldn’t afford with money they didn’t have. How is anything but foreclosing on them and forcing them back into a smaller house or a rental anything but fair. Now they get to walk away without much pain besides the potential embarrasment of being the person on the block who lost their house, TS!
The people who played it smart bought within their reach and now have a 30 year fixed at 4.5%. If you were dumb and got a toxic loan, it’s now time to pay. Get out of the house and let someone who can afford it in.
Politicians suck, they act like they have a Phd in every potential issue, yet they really have no idea what they are talking about.
Nice to see Angelo is taking this all in stride. He’s listed at #13 2006 Total compensation of $43.0 million
25 Highest-paid men
http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2007/fortune/0709/gallery.women_men_highest_pay.fortune/index.html
It’s funny that top four earners are now former CEO’s.
They got fired and made more money then anyone else who’s actually working and leading their firms to a profit.
This compansation system is sooooo flawed that it’s sad.
This nation is not what it used to be.
Hyperbole warning!!
For anyone who ever wanted to see what a falling empire looked like from the inside…. welcome to the show :)
grim (55)-
Yes, believe it or not.
Kinda like trying to sell tuberculosis.
completely off topic, But you have to take a look at this link… I wonder if disney approved this???
http://tinyurl.com/3678jm
#55
the rationale for this provision of the bankruptcy code (which allows debtor to assume or reject existing contracts), I think, is to allow the debtor to pare down its business to its profitable core and to raise cash (by selling off valuable existing agreements).
kind of sucks for the people who get dragged into the process against their will, however. one more reason to avoid doing business with companies that have shaky finances
#40: For much less money, get a place in Nantucket. Best beaches on east coast (if not the US or any of those islands). Many easy shuttle flights during the summer (there is a flight that gets you back to NYC by 7:00 am on Monday morning). Or you can make the 5 hour drive (and then the 1 hour ferry). And definitely a high level experience…
Actually, the Jersey Girls over at DJs in Belmar told me the number of crabs and incidents of people giving the bird is rising.
PeaceNow Says:
October 3rd, 2007 at 11:26 am
As someone who lives at the Jersey Shore, I can report an ability to see my toes in the water…also that numbers of crabs, clams and the birds that eat them are holding steady if not increasing.
Oh, Observer, your dilemma is so heartbreaking…5M to spend, private jets… Have you considered North Carolina?
Short sale…
MLS# 2415851 – Friar Lane, Clifton NJ.
Purchased 8/2006 – $481,000
Current list price – $469,000
Days on Market – 114
Was listed under MLS 2377333
OLP: $520,000
Reduced: $510,000
DOM: 113
Withdrawn
MLS# 2415851 – Friar Lane, Clifton NJ.
Purchased 8/2006 – $481,000
Current list price – $469,000
Days on Market – 114
Was listed under MLS 2377333
OLP: $520,000
Reduced: $510,000
DOM: 113
Withdrawn
My old neck of the woods. Sad part is, none of these homes are worth more then $300k.
http://www.10news.com/news/14260985/detail.html#
When you have homeowners insurance, and your house gets eaten up, do you receive Fair Market Value or a pre-established amount?
Merrill Lynch & Co., the world’s biggest brokerage firm, fired the global chief of its fixed- income division [Semerci] and one of his top two U.S. deputies after losses in credit markets, said people with knowledge of the decision.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aKUFokIuvOyw&refer=home
Some journalism from abroad -in this case, an article from a Director of a benchmarking firm in India. The only reason I posted it is the reference to the Titanic :)
The bubble prices in the US housing market were essentially a function of three factors — lax lending standards, low teaser rates on adjustable rate mortgages (Arms) and consumer speculative behaviour. With the downturn, all the three factors have all but vanished and so to imagine that the bubble prices could somehow be maintained in the absence of the props holding it up is wishful thinking.
A study of the California housing market showed that housing prices have to come down by 50-75 per cent before affordability returns to the consumer under normal lending standards.
So there is nothing that a rate cut can do to prevent a collapse of the housing prices. Besides, what a cut in the short-term interest rates could do is to cause the long-term interest rates to increase, as investors have less of an incentive to hold onto the dollars.
We already saw that in the immediate aftermath of the Fed decision and this trend would only accelerate in the months ahead. So the Fed rate cut in short-term debt could ironically lead to an increase in the cost of long-term debt in the housing market.
Just as the housing bubble had props that were holding up the prices, the housing bubble itself was a prop for the US economy. Consumption, which accounts for more than 70 per cent of US GDP, had increasingly been financed by equity extractions from the inflated value of the houses.
Also, a majority of Arms (an estimated 75 per cent of sub-prime loans and 40 per cent of all loans) are resetting from the initial teaser rates of 2 per cent to higher levels over the next six months. These resets are expected to increase the mortgage payments by 50-150 per cent. So, in the absence of home equity extractions, that had been the latest credit card, and with an increasing portion of the incomes getting devoted to mortgage payments, there is no way the US consumer can continue to indulge in a reckless spending binge.
Besides, the Fed expectations of moderating inflation are belied by the actual numbers. With crude oil and gold (monthly-averaged) prices quoting at all-time high prices, for the Fed to maintain its position that inflation is benign defies reality. These commodity prices and imported consumer goods are going to buoyed by the rate cut in the dollar, and the ensuing inflation is going to hurt growth even more.
We saw with the previous popping up of the Nasdaq bubble that the Fed-induced reinflation did little to prop the bubble that has been burst. All that excess money supply flowed into real estate sector that has artificially propped up the economy in the last few years. But this time around, the reinflation is going to directly flow into commodity prices and hence hurt growth.
Thus, not only is the recession in the US economy inevitable, but this is going to be accompanied by highly inflationary conditions of increasing food, energy and consumer prices. We had earlier stated that the Dollar Index could easily lose 50 per cent of its value and go to 40 from the current level of 80 over the next five years. In the light of the recent actions by the Fed, five years may not be required for our predictions to come true — it could well happen even within the next couple of years.
In some sense, the current rate cut reminds us of the actions of Captain Edward Smith of the Titanic that had been hit by the iceberg. The rate cut makes as much sense and would have the same effect as Capt Smith’s action of reassuring the passengers that all was well and encouraging them to continue to party. The party, unfortunately, is over and all that we see ahead is an extended hangover.
njrebear Says:
October 3rd, 2007 at 2:30 pm
Merrill Lynch & Co., the world’s biggest brokerage firm, fired the global chief of its fixed- income division
It would be interesting if someone kept track of all the reported losses and firings attributed to the mortgage mess, kind of like that implode-o-meter.
dream,
IMO, India is also up for a big RE correction.
#75, I agree 100%.
I just heard a commercial on the radio for refinancing…
“The housing market is crashing.
Your neighbor bought a house that he couldn’t afford. His ARM juist adjusted and now he’s about to sell it for way under market value. Guess what? That’s going to bring down the value of your house.
Refinance now before the value of your house drops and you get stuck in your current adjustable rate mortgage”
This is an angle I haven’t hear before
77 rent
I haven’t heard that one, but I heard an ad for a seminar in flipping this morning – seminar title is “Flipping Without Flopping”.
Although my favorite “get rich quick” radio ad is the one that promises to teach you how to “live in a wealth cycle, and STAY there!”
In case this hasn’t already been posted.
“Down but not out”
Office Market Trends North/Central New Jersey
Grubb & Ellis Research
2Q 2007
http://www.grubb-ellis.com/PDF/metro_off_mkttrnd/newjersey.pdf
x-underwriter Says:
October 3rd, 2007 at 2:47 pm
njrebear Says:
October 3rd, 2007 at 2:30 pm
It would be interesting if someone kept track of all the reported losses and firings attributed to the mortgage mess, kind of like that implode-o-meter.
x: What is striking to me in the different layers of the vertical here. Upstream you have structural overcapacity which is being winnowed quite abruptly, but these crap mortgage jobs are paper pushers and polyesther suit sales idiots.
However, these are the operations that fed the i-banks. The banks are making the overt admission that there isn’t enough for their staff to do. When is the real ax for the hubris-infused Hickey-Freeman set in play?
x: What is striking to me IS
Funny how all of a sudden the wife and I are getting calls from snooty realtors we met while “open housing” last March/April. We were in Maplewood looking around and wandered into a couple “nice” houses. First question they asked us “what’s your range”, and after we answered we got “well you might want to look in the Oranges – good bye”. So now when they ask I pelt them with the knowledge I’ve gained from this site as well as my own reading!
“The banks are making the overt admission that there isn’t enough for their staff to do”
Chi [80],
http://news.efinancialcareers.com/NEWS_ITEM/newsItemId-11500
MLS# 2415851 – Friar Lane, Clifton NJ.
Purchased 8/2006 – $481,000
Current list price – $469,000
Days on Market – 114
Was listed under MLS 2377333
OLP: $520,000
Reduced: $510,000
DOM: 113
Withdrawn
My old neck of the woods. Sad part is, none of these homes are worth more then $300k.
If that isn’t the truth i don’t know what is. The only link i could find is the one below. It has a different MLS number than the one listed but it’s the only one that matched Weichert (which realtor.com says is selling the property) Even if it’s not the same property i can’t even imagine anyone asking $469,000 for it!!
http://www.weichert.com/search/realestate/PropertyListing.aspx?P=15533392&cityid=10029&q=clifton+nj&mls=53&minpr=469&maxpr=469
Grim – I like how you say ‘reasonably priced.’
So I’ve had this Ridgewood house on my radar for awhile.
2731892
They are asking 579k. For some reason, its sale history is not on Trulia or Zillow. It’s a 4/2, but tiny overall.
Although additional info might help me come to a better conclusion on what this would be ‘reasonably priced’ at … I’d be interested to hear your take on what this should be priced at (without knowing info about why they are selling).
SS…i never understood why South Orange and Maplewood were so expensive anyway….i know there is a train station there but some of those prices they were asking back in 05,06 were really ridiculous! also, these homes are older and i have heard horror stories of folks that bought these homes in South Orange and had to put a lot of money to fix it up….
IMO, those two areas are way too overpriced and its not really that nice to live there either…besides, the schools are sub par…
Harmony Gold Says 3,200 Miners Are Stuck in Underground Mine
Would love to see someone from this board start a “plumet-O-meter”. A daily monitor of asking prices that get reduced each day/week. Kind of like the national debt thing near Times Square.
It must be millions and millions since August. I saw one go from $2.7M to $2.25 yesterday. $450k
For some reason, its sale history is not on Trulia or Zillow. It’s a 4/2, but tiny overall.
NJMLS has a prior sale on record, 7/2002 for $425,000.
What is the case for living in Clifton?
I understand why people like Maplewood. The neighborhood west of the village center might be my favorite suburban neighborhood in New Jersey. I could picture raising a family there one day.
Fitch Downgrades $18.4 Billion of 2006 Subprime Mortgage Bonds
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=avgXQydHRqtY&refer=home
#73 That article falls in line with the estimates I made yesterday.
I would estimate 25%-35% more of a drop in NJ and the market will begin to level out. Of course certain areas more than others so its my estimate of where the bottom is.
Example a home worth 500K about 6-12 months ago home should drop to 325K-375K before the market levels out. Then we might see something called the first time home buyer again.
pretorius,
Just out of curiosity, what town do you currently live in?
3,200 – damn.
Weehawken
Actually the more I think about we need to erase everything and go back 5 years to get where things should be. It was around then that everything began to be overpriced.
any commercial property gurus? I’m looking to buy some commercial property and wanted to find a good listing service. Can someone post some ideas? It doesn’t have to be specific to this region. It can be nationally. This will be in the under $10mm category.
To get back on topic. The sales drop we are seeing is probably a two fold contraction. Normal seasonal drop + tighter lending standards drop. Now I’m just sitting to see some real price drops.
From Crains..
NYC foreclosures climb 64% in third quarter
Residential foreclosures in New York City topped 698 during the third quarter, marking a 64% increase from the same period last year, according to data released by research firm PropertyShark.com.
Staten Island experienced the largest jump in foreclosures among the five boroughs during the third quarter, with a total of 89 foreclosure auctions during the latest three-month period, up 81.6% from a year ago.
“With a 65% increase this quarter, Staten Island reached three year highs in first time foreclosures, while Queens’ foreclosures stabilized from the last two quarters, but stabilized at historically high levels,” said PropertyShark Chief Executive Ryan Slack in a statement.
Queens saw 333 foreclosure auctions in the third quarter, the most in New York City and up 81% from the year-earlier period. The neighborhood incorporating Jamaica, South Jamaica, Hollis and St. Albans in Queens led the borough, with 26 foreclosure auctions.
Brooklyn experienced 149 foreclosures in the third quarter, up 17.3% from the year-earlier period, while foreclosures in Manhattan climbed 30.5% to 30.
Staten Island also recorded the highest number of foreclosures by household, at 0.05% for the quarter, followed by Queens with 0.04%.
Hard Place,
Have you tried http://www.loopnet.com ?
From Bloomberg:
Radian Tumbles After Deloitte Steps Down as Auditor
Shares of Radian Group Inc., the mortgage insurer whose sale to rival MGIC Investment Corp. collapsed last month, fell the most in eight weeks on concern a new auditor may force it to write down asset values.
Radian dropped $2.46, or 9.5 percent, to $23.53 in New York Stock Exchange composite trading after accounting firm Deloitte & Touche LLP declined to renew its contract.
“A new accountant may take a more conservative approach to Radian’s books,” Steve Stelmach, an analyst at Friedman, Billings Ramsey & Co. wrote in a note to clients today. “The stock could remain pressured until we have clarity on the new auditor’s assessment of the business,” the Arlington, Virginia-based analyst said. He rates the shares “market perform.”
Record home foreclosures and the failed deal with Milwaukee- based MGIC sent shares of Radian, the third largest U.S. mortgage insurer, down about 55 percent this year. Mortgage insurers help lenders recoup losses when homeowners don’t repay. Deloitte’s action was revealed in a Radian regulatory filing yesterday after the close of regular trading.
CAIBC-
I’ve heard the same about Maplewood, but it has a great village atmosphere and a great little Irish pub that pours a good pint (which we all know is mandatory when looking at houses). We currently don’t have kids and don’t plan on any for another 2 years, making it about 7 years before they hit public schools. Therefore that’s not a priority for us right now – however for resale purposes I would never buy in a crap school district.
Of course I’ve been pushing an NC move with my wife and family so I’m not making a purchase now anyway. Rent & Save is the only move I’m playing right now.
http://www.ameinfo.com/133768.html
Qatar Abandons the US Dollar
CAIBC, what is “sub par” about South Orange-Maplewood?
As far as I can tell, they outperform the state average on every objective metric. An New Jersey has above average public schools.
Regarding the white flight question: the proportion of white students in the district has been growing for several years.
The white flight that is happening in places like West Orange, Clifton, and Kearny is not taking place in South Orange-Maplewood.
On SO-Maplewood, the house hubby and I “loved” back in ’04 and lost in a bidding war (we had no idea what those were and got outbid by 30K – thank god) is already back on the market and is asking 70K more than it actually sold for in ’04. Not a huge increase, but ridiculous considering the size and the fact that the “renovations” they advertise were done before ’04. I doubt they’ll get asking (3 bed/1.5 bath) so they really won’t be making any dough on it when you count fees, etc.
And I don’t think the white flight has started yet – as I have said, friend who moved there in ’03 before they had kids is already planning the move to Summit or elsewhere before her 2 year old hits kindergarten. She’s not alone (so she tells me) but in her more lucky case, at least she bought a bit before the peak and should make some profit or break even. I don’t think those who bought in ’05 or ’06 will be so lucky if they decide on that route – maybe that will prevent the flight from happening.
Heading home now to my lovely large 4 bed/2.5 bath with no neighbors up my butt – thank god for that bidding war loss!
x-underwriter (#61)
Re: The Fearsome Foursome (of Croessal ex-CEOS)
And yet, so many people persist in blaming immigrants for America’s problems, even though they’re among the few who do actual work around here.
Kettle (#65)
And I’m sure Disney’s legal brain trust had no problem signing off on this, either:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D1qihwMN0JM
Not exactly safe for work — unless you work in a shooting gallery, or at DNC hq)
NJ Gal,
The white flight from South Orange-Maplewood already took place. It is in the past.
Same thing happened in Montclair.
Proportion of white students is rising in both districts, which is very uncommon in New Jersey today.
CAIBC, what is “sub par” about South Orange-Maplewood?
Most complaints I’ve heard tend to be centered around the proximity to Irvington and East Orange.
The Oranges are a great value….gorgeous homes…If you had a mill to spend you would get so much more for your money in a place like http://www.llewellynpark.com/
In fact you have some amazing properties and neighborhood up the hill in South Orange as well. Simply gorgeous older homes….my personal favorites are the tudors….amazing!
104….they’d be better off spending the extra dough on private schools if that is their issue…because Summit is mucho dinero and they might get hosed trying to sell in this market. Just a thought.
# grim Says:
October 3rd, 2007 at 4:07 pm
For some reason, its sale history is not on Trulia or Zillow. It’s a 4/2, but tiny overall.
NJMLS has a prior sale on record, 7/2002 for $425,000.
So Grim, if you’d be willing to say … do you think that price is reasonably priced?
93 …I would estimate 25%-35% more of a drop in NJ and the market will begin to level out. Of course certain areas more than others so its my estimate of where the bottom is.
You are absolutely correct . We are always 4-6 months behind CA. NJ cant escape it.
Any suggestions? I just want to talk but REOs don’t want to.
Them: When we put a new realtor sign in the yard you’ll know it’s back on the market because it should’ve sold at the sheriffs sale.
Me: “Yeah but, it didn’t.”
Them: “Well it should have.”
Silly me, they’re right… $100 to the plaintiff.
ithink_ithink, they’re not chatting yet.
Soon.
white flight in maplewood? the place is swarming with yuppie offspring. they’ve got a solid 20 years before succumbing to the abutting urban blight.
Essex,
Ever see the show “Bought and Sold”, it takes place in Llewellyn Park; you’re right from what I’ve seen the homes are amazing.
no ada////send me a link, it would be interesting….the lots are unheard of for a place this close to the city….and it is gated. Sublime properties imho.
Of the towns bordering Newark, only Maplewood and South Orange have held the line. The reasons include:
Housing stock characterized by attractive, single family dwellings.
Traditional downtowns.
One seat train ride to Manhattan.
Genuine spirit of community and cooperation.
Harrison, East Newark, Kearny, Belleville, Bloomfield, East Orange, Irvington, and Hillside are in various stages of deterioration.
Definitely pret–in fact those areas of downright dangerous. I was almost mugged at 10PM on the border of Orange…leaving a pal’s home…at 10PM!! I got the heck out of there…it was tense. things will get worse
Grim,
Thx for the idea, but familiar w/ loopnet. Wanted to see if there are others. Of course just like residential property, the system in commercial is not very investor friendly. I’m trying to help some family reinvest sales proceeds in a 1031 exchange from NYC to an area less susceptible to swings in RE cycle. I’m just starting my research, but probably look at a commercial property in Middle America.
Does anyone have sales numbers in Hudson County?
Grim/JB–re: Observer: “His/her demographic represents an important segment of our marketplace, we can’t ignore it or brush it off as insignificant.
Although, I confess, It’s a dilemma I wouldn’t mind having.
What happens to the shore markets when the high net worth crowd decides that it’s cheaper to go elsewhere? She/He makes an interesting argument, one that I think makes sense.”
———-
I don’t mean to be disrestpectful, but if an important demographic of this blog is represented by someone who can’t find a suitable Jersey shore house for less than 5 million, then clearly I—and many others—don’t belong here.
As you’ve said many times, sales of SFHs will never drop to zero, and that includes properties at the Jersey shore. No, it’s not the Bahamas or the Virgin Islands, but apparently there are still some of us foolish enough to think that living here is pretty good.
Re: Maplewood
The reason I had the impression that Maplewood was sub-par when I moved here was because I was told that Columbia HS had metal detectors, and shares with South Orange. Also, Maplewood has some marginal areas. I have 2 kids in high school, so I figured, why take the chance? I thought about moving there and sending my kids to private school, but since the taxes are really high, I decided it wasn’t worth it.
I think somebody asked for a lay-off scorecard:
http://www.bankersball.com/2007/10/01/whos-who-in-getting-fired-a-job-cut-round-up/
Ask Foxtons what they think about properties at the Shore…..Oh, nevermind.
pretorius, it sounds like you’ve only spent time wandering around the nicer areas of South Orange and Maplewood. Those run-down “bordering” areas you probably thought were Newark, Irvington, and East Orange are, in fact, Maplewood and South Orange.
The only nice sections of both towns are west of Valley and up the hill.
OT – Life in Perspective
http://link.brightcove.com/services/link/bcpid203719194/bclid823355447/bctid1213790245
HEHEHE,
Wittiest thing I’ve read in a long time…
http://www.bankersball.com/2007/10/03/500k-gold-digger-gets-slammed/
funny how with all the bad news for sellers,the prices are still staying high.been looking for a while in middlesex= and staten island, i blame real estate brokers for clogging things up. they keep sellers hopes up, and time just keeps going by. 15 k reductions aren’t cutting it…. maybe after the holidays- these 600k houses will start being priced right…..?
#103 Pretorius Re: White flight.
I’m white, my wife is black. Should we both be scared of white flight?
I know, I know, you’re just saying.
RayC….race?
Depends on who moves in RayC….your kid has to share space with kids who may or may not be ready to learn, as they say…..yes, you should be concerned.
All it takes to completely torpedo your child’s education is a few really unruly, unfocused, and disruptive kids who may or may not speak english….come from a loving home….or even know why they go to school.
HEHEHE Says:
October 3rd, 2007 at 8:58 pm
I think somebody asked for a lay-off scorecard:
http://www.bankersball.com/2007/10/01/whos-who-in-getting-fired-a-job-cut-round-up/
he: as I mentioned everything so far is crap jobs except the 150 + 170 at CS(FB) abd the 1500 at UBS (spread across CT, London and NYC). Obviously, we’ve also had a spot nuking of a bigwig here and there….however, when your company burns through $2B-$4B on your watch, sometimes people get pissed….not often, but sometimes….
Ray, not making nice here for anybody, but do you think white flight has come to mean $$$ flight?
Completely off-topic. I’ve always accepted my shortcomings, and know I’ve done some stoopid things.
Okay…if this were you, how would you talk your way out of this one:
http://www.cnn.com/2007/US/10/03/legislator.nudity.ap/index.html
a. “I have no idea where these came from.”
b. “I’ve accidentally brought my son’s stick.”
c. “O.K. It’s mine. But I paid for those images, legitimately.:
Post-Boom New Jersey Bidding Wars
Home buyers in the New York suburbs of northern New Jersey are getting into bidding wars. But they’re not the same as the battles of the housing boom, when house hunters vied to present a winning offer as soon as a home hit the market, says the Record of Hackensack, N.J.
Now bidding wars most often take place when the owner of a property that isn’t selling reduces the asking price to the “sweet spot” — a dollar amount considered a “good value” by consumers, the newspaper says. For instance, one homeowner in Tenafly, N.J., reduced her asking price five times — from a high of $810,000 to a low of $699,000. In May, her final asking price garnered multiple bids after her home had been on the market for about eight months. She eventually sold her house for a little less than her final list price, the Record says.
Pretorius, apparently the boards re bears aren’t the only ones predicting 10s of thousands of jobs lost in the metro…
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20071004/bs_nm/newyorkcity_economy1_dc
I’m not a fan of the term “white flight”. For the same reason that I’m not a big fan of affirmative action. We’d be better off in both cases addressing socio-economic status rather than race (and not because it’s pc either, but because it’s more accurate/effective). All that being said, the term remains useful as a shorthand means of conveying a common concept that everyone understands. I won’t mind when we find something better, though.
This delusional flipper tried to have an “auction” to unload this monumentally-overpriced prefabricated house:
MLS 2420223
http://homes.realtor.com/prop/1084046559
Living a world of delusion, of course, means the minimum bid for the “auction” was set at full asking price ($1.2M).
The “auction” ended yesterday, and not surprisingly, it appears no “bids” were made.
The realtor is Burgdorff.
“her final asking price garnered multiple bids after her home had been on the market for about eight months. She eventually sold her house for a little less than her final list price”
Excellent — even with the fabled “multiple bid” scenario, no bids were at asking price.
126 hard
Yes. That’s effin funny. I like the $50 offer at the end.
137
The “multiple lowball”?
Reuters via Yahoo:
Each lost Wall St job costs NYC two other jobs: study
NEW YORK (Reuters) – New York City could lose two jobs for every one cut on Wall Street, while anecdotal evidence shows that both residential and commercial markets might finally be starting to cool, a new report said on Wednesday.
Capsizing financial and real estate markets could torpedo the city budget.
“Barring a Wall Street (and Main Street housing market) miracle, the city faces a potential deficit reaching 5 percent of city-funded spending this year or more,” the Manhattan Institute’s report said.
Next year, there could be an even bigger deficit of 7 percent to 12 percent, the nonprofit research group warned.
Wall Street companies can produce up to one-fifth of city tax revenues. These employers added 20,000 workers from 2003 to 2006, causing other firms to hire 40,000 employees, the report said. Until scorched by the summer mortgage meltdown, this sector seemed poised to match or top 2006’s record bonuses.
But now banks and brokerages are slashing tens of thousands of jobs, and Mayor Michael Bloomberg, who had to close a $5 billion deficit when his first term began in 2002, might again have to raise taxes or cut spending, the report said.
More at link above, Rich
I don’t mean to be disrestpectful, but if an important demographic of this blog is represented by someone who can’t find a suitable Jersey shore house for less than 5 million, then clearly I—and many others—don’t belong here.
I didn’t say important demographic of this blog, I said an important part of our [New Jersey] market.
The high-end shore market is an important part of our economy. Shore tourism dollars do, in fact, go a long way. We’re bleeding jobs, we can’t afford to lose another industry.
Do you think the dollar amount is entirely relevant? Does it really make much difference if we’re talking $1m or $5m? Would it be any better if we were talking about million dollar shore homes? Can you afford one of those? God bless if you can, because I sure as heck can’t.
But the fact that I can’t, or even have any desire to, is irrelevant. It is all about the perceptions of the people that can.
“This delusional flipper tried to have an “auction” to unload this monumentally-overpriced prefabricated house:
MLS 2420223
http://homes.realtor.com/prop/1084046559
Living a world of delusion, of course, means the minimum bid for the “auction” was set at full asking price ($1.2M).”
UnRealtor, I was tempted to go see that house and quiz the realtor why they would go to an auction after having the house sit at ridiculous price levels for a long time without a nibble. And then to lower the price to $1.25M a couple weeks before the auction, get no sales, and then set the reserve at $1.2M. That was toooooo funny.
Inside of that house looks okay from the pictures but I think it probably needs to come down to $800K – $900K.
DebtVulture, I drove past during the “auction” weekend while out on errands, and not a single visitor car was in sight.
Shame on Burgdorff for taking part in this flipper’s lunacy of having an “auction” where the minimum bid is full asking price.
I think you’re about right on pricing in the marketplace today (next month, who knows, $700K?). But personally, given that:
– It’s basically a Staten Island row house.
– It’s prefabricated (they delivered it on a truck).
– It’s 30 feet wide, and all the rooms are narrow.
– The garage is in the rear, and would mean deathly navigation and 5-6 small turns just to get parked.
…my offer today would be in the mid 500s.
Wow, I thought you were kidding about it being a pre-fab. Shame they thought to put a house like that in that area.
fanshawe Says:
October 3rd, 2007 at 9:05 pm
pretorius, it sounds like you’ve only spent time wandering around the nicer areas of South Orange and Maplewood. Those run-down “bordering” areas you probably thought were Newark, Irvington, and East Orange are, in fact, Maplewood and South Orange.
The only nice sections of both towns are west of Valley and up the hill.
_____________________
Eh, that’s a load. I’d say the vast majority of both South Orange and Maplewood are nice. Is it all sprawling 5,000 square foot victorians? Nope. But there are plenty of charming, renovated, 1920s era homes in that scary section “east of valley.”