From the Wall Street Journal:
Economists in Poll Expect
Credit Turmoil to Continue
By PHIL IZZO
November 15, 2007; Page A4
The credit crisis weighing on markets still has some time to play out and consumers may have a tough slog ahead, according to economists in the latest WSJ.com forecasting survey. But confidence in the Federal Reserve’s ability to navigate the rough economic waters remains high.
When asked about the credit crisis and related market turmoil, more than half of the economists said it was about half over, while 25% said it still is in its early stages. Just 15% said the credit troubles are over or mostly over.
“I don’t think it’s close to being over,” said David Resler of Nomura Securities. “I think we’re not halfway through the duration of the correction.”
Some 28% of the economists said the credit crunch is the biggest downside risk to their forecasts. The concern came in second only to housing, which drew 30% of the responses. Oil came in third with 16%, while the stock market and falling dollar barely registered.
Indeed, many see the credit crisis exacerbating the continuing problems in the housing market. “This is a vicious housing bust. We could be going through the bursting of an asset-price bubble,” said Allen Sinai of Decision Economics Inc., who expects a major effect on consumer spending, which remains the main driver of gross domestic product.
When asked if the problems in the housing market will spill over into consumer spending, about four out of five economists said “yes.”
“The potential declines in home prices can put a significant drag on consumer spending,” said Mr. Resler, who notes that the effects may not show up for some time. “It took a long time after the tech bubble burst for it to show up in consumer behavior.”
“Lenders have further tightened lending standards, which will constitute a major headwind for the would-be extractor of home equity to finance spending,” said Richard Berner of Morgan Stanley in a research note. “While we believe that fears of a full-scale credit crunch are overblown, mortgage credit availability is already tighter than in the 1990 credit crunch period.”
From Bloomberg:
Barclays Writes Down $2.7 Billion on U.S. Subprime
Barclays Plc, the U.K.’s third-biggest bank, wrote down about 1.3 billion pounds ($2.7 billion) on credit-related securities tied to the U.S. subprime-mortgage market collapse.
Net charges and writedowns were 500 million pounds in the third quarter and 800 million pounds in October, the London-based bank said in a statement today. The bank and the securities unit increased net income and pretax profit for the year through October, Barclays said.
From MarketWatch:
Standard & Poor’s lowers Bear Stearns credit rating
Standard & Poor’s lowered the credit rating on Bear Stearns to A from A+, and said the outlook is negative. “The rating action follows Bear Stearns’ announcement that it would take a fourth-quarter writedown on its CDO and subprime exposure of $1.2 billion, which will result in the company’s first quarterly loss in its history,” said Standard & Poor’s credit analyst Diane Hinton. “We consider the write-down to be comparatively less than that of peers’, particularly given Bear Stearns’ substantial business concentration in the U.S. mortgage market. However, the expected net loss brings to light the extent to which the company is concentrated in fixed income businesses, which we believe is an underlying structural weakness in revenue generation.”
Some good stats,
Recent estimates from Fannie Mae indicate that the reset volume related to outstanding mortgage-backed securities would be about $683 billion in 2007 and about $844 billion in 2008. Adding in rough estimates for “unsecuritized” mortgages, Fannie Mae estimates roughly $1.1–2.2 trillion of reset volume in 2007, followed by $1.4–2.4 trillion in 2008. The share of subprime loans in the reset volume is estimated to be about 47%, while the share of Alt-A debt is about 25%. Thus, a very large share of ARM mortgage debt—about 72%— is not rated as “prime.”
Taking the mid-point of the Fannie Mae estimates on reset volume—and assuming that the average reset on interest rates is approximately 2 percentage points—that would translates into about $35 billion in additional debt servicing sequentially in 2007 and 2008.
http://www.globalinsight.com/Perspective/PerspectiveDetail8754.htm
So what would happen in 2008 when all FSI start shorting MBS’s like GS did this year?
From Inman:
NAR may work to settle DOJ lawsuit
The National Association of Realtors may engage in discussions with U.S. Justice Department officials in an effort to settle an antitrust lawsuit that was filed more than two years ago.
“If we’re unsuccessful in reaching any type of a satisfactory resolution, the case looks like it will go to trial in about June or July of next year,” said Laurie Janik, general counsel for the National Association of Realtors, on Wednesday during a committee meeting at the association’s annual conference.
The lawsuit charges that the association adopted illegally restrictive rules for the online sharing and display of property listings information among real estate market participants that could be used to discriminate against market participants.
She said that the evidence-gathering phase of the lawsuit is nearly complete, and later this month or in December association officials “will take a breather,” assess the status of the case and consider the prospect of settling the lawsuit “on mutually agreeable terms.”
Janik also offered a report on other legal matters, including investigations by several state attorneys general that have led to requests for information from several multiple listing services.
Multiple listing services “are very much under the microscope” these days, Janik said, and are being watched closely by federal agencies such as the Justice Department and Federal Trade Commission, as well as state agencies.
From Fortune via Yahoo Finance:
Real Estate: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
You can’t blame America’s homeowners for feeling hopelessly confused. From suburban porches and city terraces, they’re gawking at a housing world gone mad. Just 18 months ago, folks on a tony Linden Lane or a leafy Boxwood Court were astounded to see the colonial their neighbors bought for $600,000 in 2000 sell for $1.5 million after multiple bids. Now they’re just as bewildered to watch the same model across the street go begging for months at $1.1 million without a single offer.
The millions of Americans who believed yesterday’s happy talk about housing are now paying the price, from couples who stretched to buy second homes, to true believers who drove the Florida condo craze, to executives who can’t take that great new job in Charlotte without suffering a huge loss on the house purchased at the bubble’s peak in Sacramento.
Now that the gilded forecasts have proved spectacularly wrong, homeowners don’t know what to think about real estate’s future. The dizzying rise sure didn’t make sense. And the sudden slump doesn’t seem any more logical. How can you make reasonable financial plans for the future if you have no idea what your house is worth?
…
We’ll go into detail below, but the headline is gloomy: According to our calculations, prices in most markets will fall by double digits over the next five years.
…
Here’s how we reached that disturbing conclusion. We started with the median price of existing homes in 54 metropolitan areas, using numbers from the National Association of Realtors. We then compared those prices with the annual rent on similar properties – houses, condos, and apartments with the same number of square feet as the median-priced house in each market – using figures prepared by Property & Portfolio Research, a commercial real estate research firm. That gave us a price/rent ratio for each area. Economy.com then compared the current P/R ratio with its average over the past 15 years and calculated how much it would have to decline to return to its historical norm. The average drop for all the markets we surveyed is 28%.
But that’s not the whole story. The adjustment doesn’t come exclusively from a fall in prices – rising rents also help close the gap. To complete the picture, Economy.com assembled a forecast of rental growth in each market; the average rise in our 54 markets is a total of 12% over the next five years. So to reach the average correction of 28%, prices need to drop only about 16%.
http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/price_rent_ratios/
SG Reading the link you provided,did I miss something.”We do not expect the housing market to turn around until early 2008.”In closing.I wouldn’t draw that conlusion from their own #’s.
hey reech-
How much value did your house lose yesterday?
It’s only gonna accelerate. Talked to a seller in Brigadoon yesterday who has an 800K mini-castle (yes, in the “right” part of town) that’s levered to the tune of 1.05M.
He’ll be needing a short sale, as the wife has sensed the party’s over (packed and gone) and his job security is tenuous. Perhaps he’ll feel better if I call it an “Executive Short Sale”.
If I take on this listing, be assured that it’ll be hard to price it too low. I can only hope it’s on your block.
From Phillyburbs..
Mystery message decoded
Political analysts are stumped. Why did a majority of New Jersey voters refuse to guarantee themselves perpetual property-tax rebates at the polls last week?
…
The Shell Game Theory: Voters finally figured out that money for the sales tax and money for property-tax rebates come out of the same pockets — their own.
The Fool Me Twice Theory: Voters wanted to let the Legislature know they’re not as dumb as legislators think they are. A corollary to the Shell Game Theory.
The Spit In the Ocean Theory: Voters realized that property taxes will continue to increase far faster than a paltry half-percent of the sales tax can keep up with. Thus, those rebate checks will cover smaller and smaller percentages of property taxes as the years go by. They were holding out for a better deal.
The Sinking Ship Theory: The population of New Jersey is dropping fast as residents flee to states where legislators don’t wear white coats with sleeves tied in the back. As the population drops, each remaining taxpayer will be responsible for a larger and larger share of the tax burden. Rebate checks cannot cure tax flight.
The Embarrass Corzine Theory: If voters were unselfish enough to give back half of last year’s sales-tax increase to state government, how could the governor lower himself to mortgage the future for $20 billion by leveraging the turnpike and parkway?
The Unfunded Mandate Theory: Voters were telling the Legislature that they wouldn’t need rebate checks if legislators stopped writing new state laws that are expensive to enforce, then making township governments and school boards look like the bad guys by passing the expenses on to them.
The Real World Theory: By turning down the money, voters were clearly saying “if we can spend less, so can state government.”
The Charity Theory: New Jersey is $30 billion in debt. That means every man, woman and child breathing in this state owes about $344,000. Voters recognized that state finances are in worse shape than their own household finances and said “keep it.”
The Red-Haired Stepchild Theory: Not all voters own property and pay property taxes. Thus, they don’t get rebate checks either. Enough of them with bad cases of percentage envy went to the polls and voted it down out of spite.
The Loaded for Bear Theory: Far fewer than one out of three registered voters went to the polls Nov. 6. The few who dragged themselves out of their houses were highly motivated to vote against something.
The Steve Lonegan Theory: The conservative — some would say Flintstonian — mayor of Bogota appeared in a television commercial (seen mostly in other parts of the state) warning taxpayers that if they permanently pocketed that half-cent of the sales tax, the state Legislature would be forced to increase the sales tax to 8 percent next year to make up for it. Anyone who has lived in New Jersey longer than five minutes recognized that Lonegan probably was right.
some local real estate news:
(deleted, old news – jb)
Don’t randomly post old links unless you need to reference them in your comment.
From MarketWatch:
Bankrate: Mortgage rates slip
The average rate on fixed-rate 30-year mortgages fell to 6.32% this week from 6.34% last week, reported Bankrate Inc., which operates personal-finance Web site Bankrate.com, on Thursday. The average 15-year fixed mortgage also declined to 5.98% from 6.04%. The average rate on 30-year jumbo loans — above $417,000 — rose to 7.15%.
“chicagofinance Says:
November 14th, 2007 at 9:59 pm
Why is this being ignored?”
Chi,
The biggest news on the street. John Q is witnessing rapidly declining RE values, paying thru the nose for food energy, his/hers dollar is buying less and less every day and now; .96 on the dollar!! I can’t believe that there is not a revolution.
Last year, I analyzed where my mm was invested. It scared the crap out of me. I’m actually surprised that it took this long to hear that a major mm trades below par. Wait until this goes msm.
“The credit crisis weighing on markets still has some time to play out and consumers may have a tough slog ahead”
From the article.
Just wait for the next subprime crisis; cc receivables. How many people do we all know that have been playing the debt shuffling game. Akin to Bob Toll, and the CEO formerly known as Prince, dancing. Well borrowing from the house bank is kaput. Just watch the next subprime, it’s wheels are spinning now.
“Michael Geoghegan, HSBC’s chief executive, and Stuart Gulliver, the head of investment banking, said there would be a slowdown in the US and UK economies as the credit crunch squeezed banks’ ability to provide credit.”
“Mr Gulliver said share prices are “trading as if the world is really terrific” and that, excluding the banking sector, the US stock market was at an all-time high. This was “seriously puzzling” and did not take account of the impact on growth from banks limiting credit and charging higher prices for loans, he added.”
“This credit crunch is most worrisome,” Mr Gulliver said.
http://news.independent.co.uk/business/news/article3160887.ece
Two hedge funds move on after huge rewards from subprime crisis
12:09 a.m. 11/15/2007 By Alistair Barr
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Two hedge fund firms that racked up huge gains betting on the subprime mortgage meltdown have begun winding down those trades and looking elsewhere. They’re now betting against corporate debt using derivatives.
Paulson & Co. has generated returns of up to 435% in the first nine months of 2007 thanks to short positions on securities backed by subprime home loans, according to an update the $24 billion hedge fund firm sent to investors recently. Short sales rise in value when the securities in question fall.
Scion Capital LLC, $621 million hedge fund firm run by Michael Burry, reported gains of between 78% and 85%, after fees, during the first nine months of this year from similar bets.
COOL – Not a impresive as the 650K mortgaged house I saw this weekend that the bank wanted 385K for in a short sale. Even better that house bought over ten years ago, the owner was robbing peter to pay paul and cash out 100% equity at the peak of the market. Bank even said would do better than 385K for a real quick sale. I think I could have handed them a check for 350K cash and got the house, that is almost 50% off that houses spring 2006 price. Second favorite house of the week was a foreclosure in Flanders Long Island, a massive tree fell on the house right before foreclosure. Bank took insurance check and bought house on courthouse steps and has house for sale with tree right across middle of house!!!
Clotpoll Says:
November 15th, 2007 at 7:09 am
hey reech-
How much value did your house lose yesterday?
It’s only gonna accelerate. Talked to a seller in Brigadoon yesterday who has an 800K mini-castle (yes, in the “right” part of town) that’s levered to the tune of 1.05M.
He’ll be needing a short sale, as the wife has sensed the party’s over (packed and gone) and his job security is tenuous. Perhaps he’ll feel better if I call it an “Executive Short Sale”.
If I take on this listing, be assured that it’ll be hard to price it too low. I can only hope it’s on your block.
#1 grim
But bi promised me there would be no more writedowns!!!!!!!!
“Paulson & Co.”
[15],
Forget about Goldman. He is the Master.
As for the spreading problems in credit markets, the Wall Street Journal reported Thursday that GMAC’s home lending unit, ResCap, is in danger of violating terms of loan agreements due to declines in the value of its loan portfolio. The paper said that could lead lenders to demand immediate payment of its loans and even force the unit into bankruptcy protection. GMAC is 49 percent owned by General Motors (Charts, Fortune 500), which last week reported a much bigger than forecast operating loss due greatly to problems at ResCap, and 51 percent owned by private equity firm Cerberus Capital Management, which took another hit from credit market woes Wednesday.
Clot 7
Ow.
BC Bob Says:
November 15th, 2007 at 7:52 am
“chicagofinance Says:
November 14th, 2007 at 9:59 pm
Why is this being ignored?”
Chi, The biggest news on the street. John Q is witnessing rapidly declining RE values, paying thru the nose for food energy, his/hers dollar is buying less and less every day and now; .96 on the dollar!! I can’t believe that there is not a revolution.
Bost: I guess this fund is institutional, but damn…for GE, this is just rounding…I guess the concern is some type of precedent…AND THAT doesn’t sound like rounding…it sounds like Immelt stuffing pink slips in more than one New Canaan bozo’s shirt pocket…..
OK – This amazes even me!! A five buck stock has a loss of $64 dollar a share as opposed to this time last year when they had a $3 dollar a share gain. COO COO!!
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — NovaStar Financial Inc. reported a $598 million quarterly net loss late Wednesday and said that its shares may be de-listed from the New York Stock Exchange.
NovaStar stock slumped 37% to $2.90 during after-hours trading on Wednesday.
The subprime mortgage lender said it lost $64.05 per common share in the third quarter. The results compare to net income of $25.3 million, or $2.91 per common share, a year earlier.
grim: online WSJ is certainly a good resource….yes?
The stories now are fast and furious. Two years ago you had one juice story every couple of weeks. Now, the stuff is flying left and right……Booooyaaaaa….
Clot [7],
Two friends recently sold, one 3 months ago, the other 5 months ago, in Westfield. They were in the 700-900K range. Both said their price was approx 10% off 2005. They were thrilled. They stated that it has gotten worse.
Disclaimer: I’m sure it was not on our friends street, even his part of town. We all know that section is insulated from this little hiccup.
15#, it becomes more clear that new kids on the street (hedge funds) are eating turf from traditional i-banks. i guess many more funds did not raise hands since they prefer secrecy.
Serious question: Does anyone have a link to good, solid data about what percentage of households in various income groups have various kinds of debt (HEL, CC, Car loan, mortgage) and what kind at what rate? We’re all talking about this debt house of cards collapsing and its ripple effects but I’m just wondering how many people out there are really leveraged OTA.
Blog brethren & LOD: you are watching this unfold real-time….the next ten years this stuff is going to be rehashed in classrooms using Harvard Case Studies….grim’s doing the research for you……people pay a lot of money to be this informed and get this insight…..I genuflect appropriately to the SLACKER….
From NYT via MarketWatch:
Dismissal of foreclosure cases a setback for lenders
A ruling by a federal judge in Ohio is a setback for lenders attempting to recover properties from distressed borrowers, the New York Times reported Thursday.
…
The ruling suggests the complexity of mortgage-backed securities are creating snags for lenders, while home owners falling behind on payments could use it stave off foreclosures or force investors to settle with them, according to the report. The Ohio court dismissed foreclosure cases brought by a unit of Deutsche Bank, which is trustee for pools of mortgage securities and claimed to hold mortgages underlying the foreclosed properties, the newspaper said.
27 chi
Indeed. I drop a curtsey as well.
All hail Grim!!
gold is under $800. the commodity bubble starts to burst.
“I’m just wondering how many people out there are really leveraged OTA.”
Just ask a few fellow homeowners you know.
1. Do you have a fixed rate mortgage?
2. Do you have a heloc?
3. Do you carryover a credit card balance month over month?
My informal study of solid middle class families puts the number close to 50% if not more. Either I’m hanging around with a really unintelligent group of friends, or more likely, they represent the greater majority.
I glance in his general direction.
Chi [27],
You are exactly right. I always said that Harvard, in the future, would be inviting Grim to speak to their MBA’s. He will be recognized as being on the leading edge, regarding the biggest financial bust in our lifetime. This is future texbook material, at our fingertips.
KUDOS to Grim!!
bi[31],
Go short. Just do me a favor, let me know when you pull the trigger.
35# i am shorting commodity related stuff every day and cover for a little gain/loss
#32 stuw6
Thats just a silly question. You use the Heloc to pay the cards every month, so that you can deduct the interest on your taxes…..:*)
From MarketWatch:
First-time claims for state unemployment benefits jumped in the latest week, the Labor Department reported Thursday. The number of initial claims in the week ending Nov 10 rose 20,000 to 339,000. It’s the highest level since the week ended Oct. 13. A spokesman for the Labor Department said there were no special factors but anecdotal evidence suggested that the strike by Hollywood writers may have impacted claims.
How can you decide to go on strike and then collect un-employment benefits?
Rich
All hail Grim and many thanks to all for much insight & info.
bi [36],
Take a long term position. Stop getting sliced and diced. Pretty soon your login name will be tranche.
Here is a fun one for you Summit watchers. I just received a new listing (MLS# 4859374) on 15 Hillside Avenue, which is being offered at a price of $1,495,000.
Someone can please confirm for me, but I think the sellers JUST bought this house in April 2007 for over $1.5. If so, ouch.
Can anyone confirm? Cheers….
#7 clot: Now you know, that this just cannot be. A short sale in Brigadoon, and in the right part of town? Are you sure its not next door in that hell hole Clark?
Rich You can just walk out the door,quit,get caught with hands in the till just about anything short of shooting the boss & collect.I’m not so sure about the shooting thing either.
But seriously big unions made this happen along time ago to help striking workers.Once you give it ,it is not going away.
“You use the Heloc to pay the cards every month, so that you can deduct the interest on your taxes…..:*)”
I never thought of that. I’ve been going about this all the wrong way!
Now if I could just figure out a way to pay my mortgage on my credit card…oh wait, I’ll use one of those blank checks they mail me every other day.
Just logged into my brokerage account TD Ameritrade and there are two PDFs they prompt you to read about SIV exposure in their sweep money market funds. Of course this is followed by their SIPC insurance reminder. Oh happy days ;)
Can anyone give me info on 2445305.Thank you in advance.
Imus,
15 Hillside was purchased on 04/30/07 for $1,520,000.
Currently listed for $1,495,000 just as you mention.
CPI up 0.3% and core CPI up 0.2%. Can you believe the number 0.3%? The gas price increased more than 10% in October. I do not believe the goverment. They can make fake number if they want to cut the interest.
Mike,
MLS# 2445305 – 16 Slayton Road
OLP: $299,900
LP: $249,000
DOM: 58
Listed as-is, banked owned (REO – Household Finance – 8/10/2006)
Was previously listed as:
MLS# 2367997
OLP: $359,900
LP: $299,900
DOM: 237
Withdrawn
Rich In NNJ Says:
” anecdotal evidence suggested that the strike by Hollywood writers may have impacted claims.
How can you decide to go on strike and then collect un-employment benefits?”
Maybe it’s all the other workers – stagehands, production staff, assistants etc.. They’re not on strike but production has stopped.
How many people could be employed in the industry?
Bi # 31
hate o burst you bubble, but gold will be over $1000 by Nov 08
Now if I could just figure out a way to pay my mortgage on my credit card…
American Express allows you to charge your mortgage(s) on their card. For people with financial savy this is a great deal as you gain a 30 day window and rack up thousand of points and can basically vacation twice a year (5 star resorts) on American Express.
Thanks Grim. I just looked it up in the NJ property tax records. The seller’s name looks to be exactly the same as a famous area professional soccer coach. Wonder if it is the same guy. Cheers.
DB dude expects layoffs on wall street.
http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?clipSRC=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vXse.U2.4Sek.asf
09:08 15Nov2007 RTRS-Wells Fargo: Housing worst since Great Depression
NEW YORK, Nov 15 (Reuters) – Wells Fargo & Co Chief Executive John Stumpf on Thursday said the U.S. housing market is in its worst slump since the Great Depression, but the second-largest U.S. mortgage lender has only small exposure to securities that have caused mounting losses at some rivals.
Speaking at a Merrill Lynch & Co banking conference, Stumpf said he has experienced three housing cycles, “and this is the worst I’ve seen.” He called the current downturn the “steepest, fastest, most prolonged decline in residential real estate that we’ve seen in a very long time,” with home prices falling “deeper and faster” than expected.
While saying “Wells Fargo is not immune from the economic environment,”
Stumpf said the bank has “minimal” exposure to the asset-backed securities and collateralized debt obligations that have resulted in more than $40 billion of write-downs industrywide.
Zane,
if you want to see what inflation is really doing look at M3, if yuo are not familiar with M3 then wiki it .
for anyone else interested, the clcs have been updated for NOV, its not a pretty picture!
http://tinyurl.com/zyey9
includes M3 and GDP calcs for NOV
MM [52],
I’ve been trying to figure out how to make that work for years. I get 3% cash back on everything with my AMEX. That’s $1200/year savings which is no chump change. My mortgage is with Wells Fargo. So what do you do? Use Amex online bill pay?
by Deborah Howlett/The Star-Ledger
Corzine to offer plan to cut state debt in half
Gov. Jon Corzine is expected to tell municipal officials gathered in Atlantic City today he has a plan to cut New Jersey’s $32 billion debt at least by half.
In a 20-minute noon-hour speech at the New Jersey League of Municipalities convention, excerpts of which were obtained by The Star-Ledger, Corzine will call on lawmakers to make difficult choices to get the state’s finances in order: “We can’t decide public policy based on the level of controversy a proposal does or does not generate.”
Corzine isn’t expected to lay out details of his “asset monetization” plan today — that will come later this year or early next. But he will spend most of the speech convention talking about the need for it.
zane [48],
From the trade balance report, 11/9
“October import prices rose 1.8% : to leave a 9.6% rise from a year ago as sharp declines in September and October 2006 have been cleared from the calculation. Ex-petroleum import prices rose 0.5% (3.2% yoy) as petroleum rose 6.9% (41% yoy). Export prices rose 0.9% (5.6% yoy) as an 0.5% gain in ex-agricultural prices (4% yoy) joined a 3.9% gain in agriculture (27% yoy). The lift in import prices including the surge in oil and other commodities has helped to revive inflation fears at the Fed.”
http://www.individual.com/story.php?story=73224434
Imus [53],
Didn’t he just get canned?
can anyone provide information on mls: 20746629p ?
i believe it’s a forclosure in lincroft but i’d like to know what a reasonable offer would be; considering taxes avg about 10k a year in that town.
Yeah Bob. I just did the research. He did. Wow, I spent too much time on that, but it was interesting haha
I want to hear about this Amex thing (52,56)! That sounds genius.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aOjl_Hy9ibBI&refer=home
Things just got a little scarier
“Gov. Jon Corzine is expected to tell municipal officials gathered in Atlantic City today he has a plan to cut New Jersey’s $32 billion debt at least by half.”
Didn’t we see this charade last year over property taxes?
Corzine says we have tough decisions to make and we must share services between towns and institute an increase cap.
One year later, my prop taxes are increasing at the same rate and Corzine wants to bond another half a billion for stem cell research staffing. This is on top of the half a bill he has already bonded for stem cell research facility construction (without our vote).
Whitman was pretty bad, but this Corzine is friggin atrocious.
By the way, you don’t have to wait until next year to learn what asset monetization is. I’ll tell you what it is right now!
It is the same thing as a bond (you now, make your kids pay triple for what could be paid for at today’s dollar).
You sell the turnpike today at tomorrow’s price. Then tomorrow the tolls go up and the buyer of the turnpike gets their premium paid on their purchase back. Only now, NJ is powerless to control future toll increases. It’s legal, cause it doesn’t appear as a bond to the state.
This clown of a governor should be impeached. Watch him tonight on 13 as he pulls rabbits out of his ass and fools you with well practiced slight of hand tricks which he learned at Goldman. This is no different than selling high risk CMOs and SIVs and then shorting the RE market. He learned from the best!
56#, stu, everything 3%? i know costco amex gives you 2% if you join the premium plan and 3% for travel related.
They actually have HELOC Credit Cards, you credit limit is the amount of your home loan that way your interest is tax deductable and much lower than a regular credit card. It is good for colleges that take credit cards.
If you are in AMT you start to lose that deduction anyhow and you can’t have an over 100K balance.
Also that AMEX thing is not a slam dunk, Chase for instance gives a a 1/4 point reduction in the mortgage if you so an auto deduct from Chase checking, You would have to undo that and get the mortgage raised by a 1/4 point to pay by Amex.
I
PGC Says:
November 15th, 2007 at 9:04 am
#32 stuw6
Thats just a silly question. You use the Heloc to pay the cards every month, so that you can deduct the interest on your taxes…..:*)
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2007/11/14/charting-the-housing-spin.aspx
Great Data from NAR that is ripped apart by Motley Fool
(57 & 63) SG & stuw6
Last night was party night in AC for those 21,000 or so state and local government employees at their taxpayer funded annual convention. Dozens of parties were held last night with free alcohol, food, and there was little real work going on with all of the politicking, especially with the federal election cycle starting. The Obama and Hillary surrogates were working the crowds, there was no discussions or workshops held on cutting waste and lowering taxes.
With all the hangovers today I doubt any of them will be listening intently to what Corzine is proposing and will nod their heads in obedience to the party.
Instead of cutting waste lets sell everything that is not nailed down for 50 or 99 years to the hedge funds and banks for a one shot revenue deal.
The next generation of taxpayer is going to get screwed without the vaseline on this one, that is for sure.
stuw6 Says:
November 15th, 2007 at 10:04 am
“Gov. Jon Corzine is expected to tell municipal officials gathered in Atlantic City today he has a plan to cut New Jersey’s $32 billion debt at least by half.” Didn’t we see this charade last year over property taxes?
Corzine says we have tough decisions to make and we must share services between towns and institute an increase cap.
stu: finally I see something about cut spending….I want cut spending, then cut spending and then cut spending…when you are done, we can implement a new plan to cut spending…..with all the debt left over, we can sell Drumthwacket first, then we should sell Trenton to PA through a succession plan…..I think that will cover the rest of our deficits.
“Numbers don’t lie, unlike the writers of some press releases”
Best line from the Motley Fool piece!
dimwit….succession…I meant “secession”
To all fellow NJ well wishers, Ask a good question to Gov. Corzine.
Ask Gov. Corzine
Forget cut spending CF, I’d be happy to see simply see the rate of growth in spending decrease. You gotta start somewhere ;)
3b [62],
Scary s*it. I am picking up a few containers, from Port Newark, and going beneath the surface. Above ground is so 2005/2006-ish.
oil just joined commodity crash party …
Many here think NJ is very expensive and housing is major cause for it. This issue is never discussed or debated in MSM NJ Politics. I think we all should write question about Housing Affordability to Gov Corzine. If we all do it, I am sure at least one of them will be picked up by Star Ledger. It would be good to know what answer he gives. I posted the link above to asking questions.
Many here don’t believe in Govt, are just passive. That’s not the answer. IMO do your part in raising awareness.
“Seattle is becoming a ’superstar’ market, where housing costs may never settle back into historical relationships to incomes, the National Association of Realtors, association Chief Economist Lawrence Yun declared on Tuesday.”
“It’s also possible that some are joining the ranks of international cities like London, Paris, San Francisco and New York, where costs are less tied to incomes, he said. ‘Now I’m beginning to think: Miami, Seattle, are they becoming superstar markets?’”
“Asked if there was a housing bubble, Yun said there was a lending bubble and some markets might have had a bubble in home prices, but national prices have proved ‘exceptionally resilient.’”
“Realtors’ officials continued to blame everyone but themselves for problems in the housing market, while saying it would recover quickly. Greedy lenders and investors put out bad loans, then overreacted when some turned out to be problematic, Yun said.”
“‘The word that usually follows after greed is fear,’ he said. ‘We went through a cycle of fear in 2007.’”
“The media, meanwhile, played up problems in the market, Yun said. ‘They have a natural bias of wanting to sensationalize all the news items.’ And, while many markets remained healthy, he said: ‘The local media, many are just very lazy. They just copy the national stories and put them in their local papers.’”
“At a news conference later…Association Public Affairs Director Lucien Salvant stepped in to keep newly installed Association President Richard Gaylord from answering a question about the faulty prediction record of Yun’s predecessor, David Lereah.”
“‘David Lereah doesn’t work for (the association) anymore,’ Salvant said. ‘His predictions were his predictions at the time.’”
“Pressed on Realtors’ possible responsibility for market problems at his own news conference, Yun noted that there are 1.36 million Realtors. ‘Certainly some are guilty,’ he said, adding that Realtors do have a responsibility to advise their clients against paying too much or getting in over their heads.”
“John Tuccillo, a former Realtors’ chief economist, was considerably harsher.”
“‘The system stinks because on the front end of the market are people who close the loans and walk away with no responsibility and pocket their checks,’ he told an audience of Realtors during a presentation, drawing a round of applause.”
“‘Why are you clapping?’ he asked. ‘I’m including you.’”
bi Says:
oil just joined commodity crash party …
Bi, this is a blog that is centered around real estate. People come here to get information on the housing market in New Jersey.
Why do you contine to bring up the subject of oil prices and other commodities? What value are you adding here?
SG,
I wish I knew about the “Ask Corizine” link sooner.
My question to the Gov was simple. When is he planning to make the necessary spending cuts?
Only IndyMac and AHM (Bankrupt) offer the Amex payment deal. They charge an upfront fee of $400 to get it started so if Amex changes the policy or you sell the home (good luck) you stand to get a lot less back then the concept originally promised. Link here:
http://www.fatwallet.com/forums/arcmessageview.php?start=0&catid=52&threadid=733712
77#, oil price is very much related to real estate. if oil goes down, heating cost goes down. inflation pressure goes off. fed is more willing to cut rate. it is related but probablly not the news you want to hear.
Rich, SG,
I sent in my question last week. I asked Corzine why he is such a spineless dweeb?
Actually, I asked him about how the state could spend 1/2 a billion on stem cell research facilities even after knowing that the residents voted against funding the staffing of said facility.
I’m pretty certain that pussy Adubato won’t ask it though. He’ll stick with the questions that will guaranty we all walk away from the show feeling good about NJ’s future.
Grim,
81 is stuck in moderation.
“oil just joined commodity crash party …”
huh?? It just jumped up 35 cents…
Grim Thanks for info,could be worth while at a 200thou depending on work needed.The #’s up here must make you guys laugh.Really a nice place to live maybe Homer should take a look.Morristown,Wayne doable.
Zane#48 I’m with you ,they are full of it.
Gary,
Do you have a link for #76?
X-Underwriter,
It’s best to just ignore his idiotic predictions and hypotheses.
I’ve got a great idea.
We let bi make 3 commodity calls. If he goes 2 for 3, he gets to continue spouting his nonsense. If he doesn’t, he may no longer mention a commodity on this blog.
Think about it…we’ve got nothing to lose.
(Just make sure you have some cash to invest opposite his calls.)
Many here think NJ is very expensive and housing is major cause for it. This issue is never discussed or debated in MSM NJ Politics.
I think housing is expensive for 2 reasons;
Taxes – which is a big issue in MSM NJ politics…not that much is being done aside from rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic (i.e. shift money from this pot to that pot or selling assets, but not addressing spending).
Home Prices – which are set by the free market. I’d rather not see govt. intervention here. Govt. intervention in NJ would probably mean building more low income housing at the taxpayers expense, making life even more difficult for the middle class.
oil just joined commodity crash party …
Yes. Oil is down 54 cents to $93.55. It should drop below $40 any minute now.
“oil just joined commodity crash party …”
Looks like a crash to me ;)
(81) Bi:
Stick with delivering Pizzas. I think you were better with that than at economic forecasting
#62 Imus
Regarding AMEX, I have almost all of my monthly bills paid through my amex and then i write amex 1 check every month, I use the amex charge card though, not the credit card, not that it would change anything. You can just go to the individual service providers (i.e cable, carnote website etc) and setup an automatic debit from the amex account.
Rich in NNJ,
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=3725
If 54 cents is a crash,what term do we use to describe housing declines!
Kettle1,
Is your mortgage through AHM or IndyMac?
94#, guys the party just started. be patient. almost 2% for now.
Can someone here track bi’s IP and send a Trojan over to blow up his monitor? That’ll save some of us the torture of having to painfully read the moronic thoughts bubbling through his head that make it incoherently to his keyboard. It’s becoming annoying… when no value is added in his posts.
Bi does have some points – both gold futures and oil futures have become very volatile in the past few days. However, I’m thinking its more tied/indicative of the overall volatility of the markets in general. I’m not expecting $40 a barrel or DJUSHB back up to $720, but credit where it is due.
Also, the Fed is busy dumping cash into the market, about $40bil today. Anyone have any thoughts? Things didn’t seem that hectic.
97#, why it’s so painful to hear different views? i enjoyed your post by the way
> That’ll save some of us the torture of having to painfully read
Wow,
Check out these Fortune predictions for housing prices in 5 years. They show North NJ taking a 15.7% haircut in 5 years.
In real dollars, this is a 27% haircut, which is about in-line with my expectations.
http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/price_rent_ratios/
My mortgage company will not accept AMEX payments. They suck.
Wells Fargo won’t either.
Seems like the mortgage companies that accept them are the ones that are under water or barely above. Who would have thought that would be the case?
#100 rent: Heck, I am aexpecting a 20% or more haircut in north Jersey prices by this time next year.
Wanna bet that E*trade let’s you pay your mortgage off of a credit card?
Renting: Home Prices – which are set by the free market. I’d rather not see govt. intervention here. Govt. intervention in NJ would probably mean building more low income housing at the taxpayers expense, making life even more difficult for the middle class.
The intervention does not always have to be using Taxpayers money. I think the issue that he can address is restrictive practices employed by many towns.
it seems to me all these sub-prime write-down has little to do with housing price. all these big lenders (banks) are just trying to get rid of bad loans to claim tax credit. who made money on these? borrowers who locked in fixed rates and hedge funds. the only place you may get deal is foreclosed homes which the borrowers took the money and ran away.
#100 RentinginNJ, where does 27% haircut come from?
bi – how many houses are you currently trying to sell?
#95
I rent a SFW, i am not willing to play in the current acid trip that is the housing market currently
“the only place you may get deal is foreclosed homes”
bi, does this mean that you think now is not a good time to buy?
#98 Tosh
Look at the underlying fundamentals…. Oil and gold are only going up. yes there will be volatility along the way but they will continue an overall increase for at least the next year. The fundemenatls that drive the prics of these commodities are weak are becomeing weaker everyday. The rate of oil production has peaked as stated by the saudis and others. gold is going up because the fiat dollar is in serious trouble and a quick fix in highly unlikely as it would be extremely painful to eveyone.
110#, for long run it is always good time to buy primary residence an ytime. let’s say you are buying start home for $500K. 5 years later it worths $450K. your current income is 100K and 5 years later it is 150K anually. what is a big deal to lose $50K? the effect is two-folds: your income increased and other houses get cheaper too. it is no brainer to me.
If you own on the “Gold” Coast, looking to sell in the next few years, and are backward looking, the below is not a big deal. However, if you are forward looking, it may be troubling. At least a cause for concern. The pipeline may begin to dwindle.
“Next year’s associate class at most Wall Street firms is set to shrink big-time. At least that’s how MBA students and campus officials view it, even if the banks aren’t disclosing their hiring targets.”
“Jonathan Masland, an official at Dartmouth’s Tuck School of Business, outlined a ripple effect that may curtail campus job offers. Private equity firms are hiring fewer analysts from banks, Masland told BusinessWeek. That leaves fewer full-time openings for MBAs within the banks. He explained: “some of these (openings) are now being filled by the promotion of an analyst into an associate role, where in the past these people left and went to private equity firms.”
http://news.efinancialcareers.com/NEWS_ITEM/newsItemId-11867
oh and for anyone interested current M3 inflation is at 14% as of novemenr :)
oh and for anyone interested current M3 inflation is at 14% as of november :)
#106 bi: Then why are there so many houses on the market for sale in central and north Jersey.
You see Grasshopper ( us of term approved by Doyle), there may not be many deals out there now as you say.
And yet there are so many homeowners that are trying to sell their houses, and yet there are so few that can or want to buy do you understand that my child?
So you see why we may not be getting deals, the sellers are not getting their cash, there appears to be far more sellers than there are buyers,and as such prices will ultimatley have to come down.
This has happened before Grasshopper (although these last few years have been so very extreme), this will happen again.
That is your lesson for today.
bi – quoting you, to summarize the effects of your economic advice: “what is a big deal to lose $50K?”
anyone who thinks it’s not a big deal to lose $50K can follow bi’s advice.
I, on the other hand, prefer not to lose $50K if I don’t have to.
112 bi– sounds great, in a self mutilation kind of way.
bi, should I assume you won’t be answering my question at #108???
#61 Secondary Market
MLS#20746629
3 Carello ct
Bought in 2000 for $330,000
listed 11/06- $650,000
Went to sheriffs sale 5/07
Last mortgage on property $385,000
block 1084 lot 9
you can look it up on the Monmouth county clerks website if you want more info
3B…I’m very disappointed at your lack of self control.
#121 I held off on using Grasshopper for quite a while, however last week Doyle gave me a special disonesation to use the word.
I advised him I would hold off as long as possible, but today I had had enough, and used it.
21.4% off original list price
19 Grove, Caldwell
2338777
11/6/06 OLP $623,900
Reduced to $590,000
Expired after 181 days on market
2404885
5/9/07 OLP $589,000
11/2/07 SP $490,000
I was in this house when it was first listed – it was an estate sale. Needed new kitchen, etc. although it’s on a great street.
Fair excuse, but I’m still disappointed.
Of course, I probably would have given him the ‘ol’ grasshopper’ after reading one of his posts for the first time.
kettle1 Says:
November 15th, 2007 at 11:36 am
#98 Tosh Look at the underlying fundamentals…. Oil and gold are only going up. yes there will be volatility along the way but they will continue an overall increase for at least the next year.
vodka: The fundamentals say oil and gold should retreat. However, these assets have disconnected from their fundamentals, and their technicals dominate the price action. As such, their technicals paint a story similar to your comments….I am essentially neutral to these areas. I hold (directly or indirectly) an appropriate allocation, but no more or less, as should most readers here.
DISCLAIMER: these comments are for discussion purposes only
#100 RentinginNJ, where does 27% haircut come from?
It’s a 15.7% drop. However, when you factor in 5 years of inflation, the real drop is closer to 27% (at 3% per year).
#124 stu I will rededicate myself to not employing that term again, als I can make no promises. It is a week to week kind of thing.
112 – kettle1 – Oh, I understand the underlying fundies. I was just noting the volatility that bi was citing as evidence of a deflationary commodities trend. I probably should have been a little clearer.
Fed has added $47.26Bil in repos today, the most since 9/11.
128#, toshi, any link on fed adding funds? thanks
it seems to me all these sub-prime write-down has little to do with housing price
Umm….Well…If prices weren’t falling, people would be able to sell or refinance their way out of trouble and we wouldn’t have a subprime problem (aka a reason for write downs)
Of course, foreclosures, sales under pressure and the excess of homes on the market do put pressure on prices…which in turn exacerbates the subprime problem…leading to more writedowns.
It has everything to do with housing prices.
#129 – Bi – Not yet. Its a Reuters story @11:55. It may take a few more minutes to show on their website.
50K is not a big deal!!!!! Add to this 6% realtor’s fee. Add maintenance and higher mortgage payments…
Ohh wait – not add anything – 50K is not a big deal???
Sorry Bi but this is the end of you on this blog….
I saw a bank advertising NONPrime Loans I guess that is better than SUBPrime loans.
132#, guys 50K is big deal if you don’t have any earning power any more. but you have to look at it dynamically. 1) the money is depreciating faster than you think 2) the loss will be less than your one year pay increase. 3) at that time, it is very likely you want to trade up and you will be much more affordable.
“njpatient Says:
November 15th, 2007 at 11:45 am
bi, should I assume you won’t be answering my question at #108???”
no?
134 bi
Or maybe you could just NOT lose the $50K. That’s the choice everyone but you would make.
What line of work are you in that you get a $50K raise, by the way?
Still not answering #108, huh?
Can someone please translate bi’s rantings for me.
The way I see it, you would be better of renting for five years and making interest off of the downpayment you would have spent had you bought the house.
Dense he is.
“The fundamentals say oil and gold should retreat.”
Chi [125],
I would argue that point regarding gold. The short term technicals indicate pullback; stochastics,overbought indicator, channel support and momentum indicators. The fundamentals are smoking. However, this is not the place to get into it any further.
“John Says:
November 15th, 2007 at 12:10 pm
I saw a bank advertising NONPrime Loans I guess that is better than SUBPrime loans.”
They’re probably marketing their MBS as “Certified, Pre-Owned Loans”.
further to 136, bi, what line of work are you in that you assume a $50K raise EVERY YEAR?
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601170&refer=home&sid=aYE0AghQ5IUA
“The board decided to keep $900 million in asset-backed commercial paper slashed to junk between August and October, state records show…
‘The Wall Street dealer community is reluctant to quote a price on anything that doesn’t trade in the secondary market,” he wrote. He estimated in the memo that those holdings were worth 96-98 cents on the dollar.'”
#106 bi:
If you are suggesting that sub-prime melt down won’t affect mortgage availability and hence housing demand, I think you are complete moron.
-140 what line of work are you in that you assume a $50K raise EVERY YEAR?
Not mine, that’s for sure.
#129 – Bi – Link in question is below.
http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSNYG00085020071115
A home is like a diamond wedding ring, it is overpriced but we like to show it off and hope it appreciates.
The trouble with RE is that past performance is not an indicator of future performance. Houses doubled between 2000 and 2005, so that 300K split became a 600K split, did the idiot who bought it in 2005 expect the 600K split to be worth 1.2 million in 2010, or 2.4 million in 2015 or 4.8 million in 2020 and I guess 9.6 million in 2025 and wow maybe 20 million in 2030. Wow in 2030 (only a little over 22 years from now) that run down 60 by a hundred split would have over a hundred thousand a month mortgage payment, wow my kids are going to be making several million a year!!!! YIPPEE I better sign on the dotted line as the HS drop out from AHM has told me I am going to be a millionaire in 5 years with nothing down!!!
142#, i always see somthing positive from negative. this sub-prime meltdown has already affected and will keep affecting mortgage availability. but that will also push fed keep cutting rate so that financial systems work properly. net to net, the effect will be little to desirable areas. in addition, we are in less bubbling state, if you call it bubble. therefore, it will benefit this area by monetary policies made by “national” fed.
#144 John:did the idiot who bought it in 2005 expect the 600K split to be worth 1.2 million in 2010, or 2.4 million in 2015 or 4.8 million in 2020 etc. etc.?
Yes that is why they bought it.
143#, thank you for the link.
i am not saying every year but saying 5 years later you will be likely make 50% more than what you are making now.
He said a 50K raise over five years, that is a 10K raise each year. That is chickenshit. Think about it a young newlwed couple who both work can easily each get a 5K raise each year (10K total) each year for five years as long as we don’t get another financial blow out.
njpatient Says:
November 15th, 2007 at 12:14 pm
134 bi
Or maybe you could just NOT lose the $50K. That’s the choice everyone but you would make.
What line of work are you in that you get a $50K raise, by the way?
Still not answering #108, huh?
#145 bi:
So I get your logic. Everything that happens is good for housing. Even if home prices drop and you look a couple of thousand, no big deal.
Every time is the best time to buy !
You sound like a desperate realtor.
#145 bi: were you in this state/country during the last real estate down turn?
#145 bi: please re-read lesson #116.
CHiFi BCBob,
I am not an expert in finance, but if you look at the underlying situation for oil, it comes down to simple supply and demand supply has surpassed demand and will continue to do so based on geologic and human factors.
Regarding gold, you both have good points, its just me personal opinion that gold will continue to rise over the next year at least, based on the general lack of trust in the dollar. gold is not necessarily a good hedge in inflationary times, but people have historically used it as such anyway. its primary strength is that is essentially the ultimate form of money (i.e in late WWII the only currency sellers would accepted from germay for raw materials was gold, as they knew that the gold would always have value were as fiat money does not). Just furthering the discussion and admit that i do not know enough about the fine details of the current market to make more specific comments
3b (42)-
Very sure. A whole damn street in Brigadoon, full of Stanley Johnsons.
Merry F(*&^^ng Christmas.
The fundamentals are smoking. However, this is not the place to get into it any further.
Which reminds me…when is the next get-together? There is so much to discuss and dissect on a variety of topics.
Imus (53)-
If that’s Bruce Arena, ohhhboy.
He cost the Red Bulls their last playoff game by not subbing for Angel after he got knocked cold. Of course, NE goes right down the middle- with a 40 yard ball played from the back with no pressure- and scores. One of the dumbest coaching moves I’ve ever seen a professional coach make.
http://www.century21prevete.com/details_general.asp?id=13418169
Last downturn this was the begining of the deep drop. When the Hampton prices started dropping. I know this listing is junk, but it is a single family home in the hamptons for under 300K. Houses or even one bedroom coops in the hamptons in the two’s are getting juicy.
Juicy? ;)
#153 clot: You know who in Brigadoon,will not be happy about this. Expect to be lectured accordingly.
#120 njcoast.
Thank you very much. Tell me what you think of this:
330K purchase price in ’00
382.5K = 3% appreciation to ’05
306K = 20% off 0’5 price
Think the bank will bite on my logic? I’ll assume the house needs 50k work if it’s a Sherrif sale; usually those places are in shambles.
From Marketwatch:
Another Florida home builder seen sliding into bankruptcy
Home builder TOUSA Inc.’s third-quarter results “strongly indicate existing shareholders will be completely wiped out, or at the very least diluted to almost nothing,” wrote Morningstar Inc. analyst Eric Landry in a research note Thursday. The troubled company, which operates mostly in Florida, late Wednesday said its quarterly loss widened and that it may be forced to file for Chapter 11 due to the housing slump. Landry estimated the company’s book value is now less than zero. Several smaller, private builders have already gone under and last week Levitt and Sons, a unit of Levitt Corp., and 37 of its subsidiaries filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, citing the “sudden and steep” housing pullback in Florida and the Southeast. Shares of TOUSA were off 8 cents, or 32%, to 17 cents Thursday morning.
>>How much value did your house lose yesterday?
none. it’s been pretty flat since february by recent comps.
“HSBC Holdings warned Wednesday that losses in the United States housing market were spreading to credit card and other consumer loans, forcing the bank to set aside $3.4 billion to cover bad loans, more than it had forecast about four months ago.”
“Banks worldwide have written down more than $45 billion since troubles with mortgage loans to American borrowers with impaired credit started to spread to the global credit markets this year.”
“Losses from the subprime mortgage crisis could reach $480 billion in coming years, according to UBS research.”
http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/11/14/business/hsbc.php
I will try to contact the UBS research team. Obviously, they don’t read this blog. Bi stated, yesterday, that 100% of the write downs have been realized.
Bi? UBS? Tough call.
toshiro_mifune,
Great site!!!
And I’ve been perplexed as to why EphemeraNow.com disappeared but now thanks to you, I’ve found them again!!
Rich
“Homebuilders such as Dallas-based Centex Corp. and Pulte Homes Inc. aim to survive an industrywide unraveling by selling houses at bargain prices, slashing jobs and scrapping growth plans.”
“In Alexandria, Va., last month, 30 two- and three-bedroom condominiums were auctioned off in an hour for average prices of $300,000 to $350,000, a discount of around 10 percent from pre-auction prices.”
“And in Baltimore, new townhouses with granite countertops and rooftop decks that commanded $600,000 or more two years ago were advertised in October for as low as $480,000 during Pulte’s Halloween-themed “Monster Sale.”
http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/bus/stories/111507dnbushousing.84e2be.html
oh look it’s self righteous day again at the grim blog. you people crack me up. i’ll venture a guess there’s next to nobody on this blog worth more than $2 million. not hard to figure out why.
Richard,
And you would be wrong… What else is new?
I’m not worth 2 million, but I’m not underwater.
Clot #7
oohh that was positivly delicous…. again I must compliment your finesse with words. Keep it coming.
KL
Grim
If you hear anything from NJGAL please keep us posted. I am thinking of her.
KL
#155: Seems to be same name. But total speculation. Maybe Beckam goes home next? haha
Imus,
The name of the wife matches as well..
Is it true that Real Estate Agents are selling their own homes to remember what a sale and a commission check feels like and to stock up on friskies and cup-a-soups?
#163 – Rich – Shorpy.com rocks! It’s not my site, I just dig `em.
Richard [165],
Drip, drip, drip.
From Bloomberg:
ResCap Credit Swaps Soar on Concern It May Default
The risk of Residential Capital LLC defaulting on its debt soared on concern the biggest privately held U.S. mortgage lender may violate bank loan agreements, trading in credit-default swaps show.
Traders are speculating that Cerberus Capital Management LP and General Motors Corp. may allow the Minneapolis-based mortgage unit of GMAC LLC to fall into bankruptcy as the U.S. housing slump continues to deepen.
“As we continue to see conditions get worse and worse, the company clearly at some point has to reevaluate,” Kathleen Shanley, an analyst at Gimme Credit Publications Inc. in Chicago, said in an interview. “ResCap has an awful lot of secured debt, which raises the issue of `is it worth it.”’
Richard — My net worth exceeds $2M. Avid reader of this fine blog for over a year. Reading the commentary here has saved me at least $500K in purchase price. Upper end of market has fared much worse than the low end.
“John Says:
November 15th, 2007 at 12:26 pm
He said a 50K raise over five years, that is a 10K raise each year. That is chickenshit.”
ok – I missed that. That’s a horse of a different story.
#176 Upper end of market has fared much worse than the low end.
But it is spreading to the lower and low end.
Imus (170)-
Beckham rents.
165 Richard
waaaaaaaaaaaahhh.
at least bi has some stones.
reech (165)-
I’m right at that number (thanks, as always, for implying that you are someone of high net worth). Too soon you will learn that not everyone who disagrees with you is a negative-net-worth slacker. And, far too soon, you will probably also learn that your little slice of heaven is depreciating like a Chevy Impala.
Perhaps if I’m just shy of that net worth mark, I will both surpass it- and simultaneously drive yours down- when I fire-sale the overpriced house of horrors that I pray is located on your block.
Clot,
I’m glad I’m not a goalie and you are getting ready to strike.
I’m beginning to think reech’s casa is more of a d*(k extender than a home.
Just saying.
BC (182)-
The idea is to miss the goalie. :)
#181 clot: Oh kind Sir, you are in trouble now. For you have scorned and ridiculed the chieftain of Brigadoon.Tis a matter of honor now.
#148
John –
“He said a 50K raise over five years, that is a 10K raise each year. That is chickenshit. Think about it a young newlwed couple who both work can easily each get a 5K raise each year (10K total) each year for five years as long as we don’t get another financial blow out.”
this is true. but what happens when life starts and this newlywed couple is no longer newlywed and has a baby or two? instead of salary growing by at least 10K a year, now it may be sliced in half. –
then, that 50K will mean something bigger than just measly raises. actually, i think losing 50k stinks anyway you look at it.
Clotpoll Says:
November 15th, 2007 at 2:08 pm
BC (182)- The idea is to miss the goalie. :)
clot: I did that in January 2006.
“The idea is to miss the goalie. :)”
Clot,
That’s my point. I wouldn’t have a shot.
Richard Says:
November 15th, 2007 at 1:24 pm
oh look it’s self righteous day again at the grim blog. you people crack me up. i’ll venture a guess there’s next to nobody on this blog worth more than $2 million. not hard to figure out why.
reech: This number you referenced seems meaninglessly arbitrary, but maybe you are providing us with some type of thinly-vieled self-disclosure. Congrats…you beat my a%%..whatever that means..
#189 chgo: I have found over the years, that truly wealthy people (not wannabees), do not discuss or disclose their true wealth, many times they do nto even show it.
110#, for long run it is always good time to buy primary residence an ytime. let’s say you are buying start home for $500K. 5 years later it worths $450K. your current income is 100K and 5 years later it is 150K anually. what is a big deal to lose $50K? the effect is two-folds: your income increased and other houses get cheaper too. it is no brainer to me.
I dont know that I buy that. Lets say the buyers are first-time buyers. They put down $100,000 and thay pay all closing costs out of pocket. Now, they have a $400k mtg, say over 30 years, with a payment of $2,400.
In round numbers, over those first 60 months, interest on the loan is $2k/month. The actual total interest is $116,109.55. Asssuming they have a nominal tax rate of 33% the out-of-pocket interest cost is $76,632. The principal paid is $27,782.57. Now that gives a total principal and interest payment of $104,414.
Now, during this 5 year period, they need to live someplace, so, they find someplace at 2,000 a month but, after considering that they would be spending $1,000 a month on real estate taxes etc, the net cost difference per month is $1,000, or 60k for the 5-year period.
Now we have a difference, after tax implications of $40k saved renting over buying for this particular period.
Lets assume they lock up the initial down payment of $100k in an account that breaks even with inflation, so the full value of the initial 100K deposit is still there, and we add to that the $40k saved renting rather than buying (more if they economize on the rental unit costs). So, in 5 years from now,they have $140 to put down on a house that is worth 450k. This time when they get the mortgage, it is for $310k, or less if they continue to save.
With that lower amount borrowed, if they make the same monthly fee, they will pay off the mortgage in 17 years. EVEN waiting 5 years longer to buy, they will own the house outright EIGHT years earlier.
Thoughts anyone?
191 shore guy
I like the math, but I don’t think we need to go into contortions to prove to bi that losing $50K for no reason is a bad idea. To the extent he thinks it’s a good idea, he can feel free to lose $50K for no reason.
Ridgefield Park
SLD 15 EDISON ST $420,000 12/21/2004
ACT 15 EDISON ST $435,000 10/19/2007
PCH 15 EDISON ST $425,000 11/15/2007
———-
Teaneck
SLD 124 BEDFORD AVE $375,000 2/6/2005
ACT 124 BEDFORD AVE $399,000 6/19/2007
PCH 124 BEDFORD AVE $379,000 7/17/2007
ACT* 124 BEDFORD AVE $379,000 7/24/2007
U/C 124 BEDFORD AVE $379,000 7/31/2007
BOM 124 BEDFORD AVE $379,000 9/28/2007
PCH 124 BEDFORD AVE $359,000 10/16/2007
PCH 124 BEDFORD AVE $349,000 11/15/2007
———-
Lodi
SLD 212 CORABELLE AVE $315,000 2/10/2006
ACT 212 CORABELLE AVE $350,000 9/7/2006
PCH 212 CORABELLE AVE $340,000 10/4/2006
PCH 212 CORABELLE AVE $325,000 1/25/2007
EXT 212 CORABELLE AVE $325,000 1/25/2007
PCH 212 CORABELLE AVE $275,000 3/30/2007
EXP 212 CORABELLE AVE $275,000 6/8/2007
(New listing)
ACT 212 CORABELLE AVE $275,000 6/12/2007
W-U 212 CORABELLE AVE $275,000 9/10/2007
(New listing)
ACT 212 CORABELLE AVE $255,000 10/18/2007
ACT* 212 CORABELLE AVE $255,000 11/15/2007
————-
Woodcliff Lake (WTF?)
SLD 14 STACEY LN $815,000 1/5/2005
SLD 14 STACEY LN $825,000 1/12/2007
ACT 14 STACEY LN $999,000 7/24/2007
PCH 14 STACEY LN $950,000 11/15/2007
ACT: Active
PCH: Price change
ACT*: Attorney Review
U/C: Under contract
BOM: Back on market
EXT: Extended
EXP: Expired
W-C: Withdrawn conditionally
W-U: Withdrawn unconditionally
SLD: Sold
3b [190],
Bingo.
192 I like the math, but I don’t think we need to go into contortions to prove to bi that losing $50K for no reason is a bad idea. To the extent he thinks it’s a good idea, he can feel free to lose $50K for no reason.
Agreed that a loss is not a good thing. The point that needs to be considered by folks is that the it it would not just be the $50k loss of market value. In a rising market, the decision to wait may be misplaced; however, in a flat or declining market, one must crunch the numbers several different ways to see what makes sense.
For our hypothetical couple, if they wait that 5 years, and end up paying off in 17, they may well find themselves mortgage free as the college tuition bills come due.
From Reuters:
Wells Fargo: Housing worst since Great Depression
When you get a chance throw me a 50K.
There are a number of oceanfront homes in Spring Lake where some folks bought existing, and quite fine homes, tore them down and rebuilt oceanview McMansions. It seems like some of them have been on the market for 2-3 YEARS. Does anyone have any data for homes on Ocean Ave in Spring Lake that have been hanging out there forever?
As an aside, I was talking to a banker who financed at least one of those and the builder was in for something like $27k a month to the bank while the place sits unsold.
Port Authority introduces budget; toll hike to come
The changes mean tolls at the bridges and tunnels will rise to $8 from $6, with PATH base fares jumping to $2 per trip from $1.50. The timeframe for public hearings on the increase — including an online forum — will be announced during the next week, and the toll hikes are expected to take effect early next year.
“Our ambitious plans demonstrate that the Port Authority has returned to our core mission about building and maintaining transportation infrastructure,” Port Authority Chairman Anthony Coscia said.
The proposal approved by the agency’s board of commissioners this afternoon calls for a $29.5 billion capital plan over the next decade, including $3 billion for a new trans-Hudson River rail tunnel, $3.3 billion for PATH system improvements and $8.4 billion to rebuild the World Trade Center.
SG [199],
Over 30% increases. That said, we can’t get too excited. Remember, there is no core inflation.
From the AP:
Corzine willing to lose re-election to fix N.J.’s financial woes
New Jersey Gov. Jon S. Corzine on Thursday said he’s willing to risk losing re-election by increasing highway tolls to try to resolve state fiscal woes.
The governor didn’t detail how much he wants tolls to increase, but said he plans to present a formal plan in January as part of his State of the State address.
Speaking at a League of Municipalities convention, Corzine, as he has throughout the year, detailed fiscal woes he claims bar the state from investing in key needs.
“We will get one chance at a serious financial restructuring and it has to be done right,” Corzine said. “But you can take this to the bank — I will be bold in the name of progress.”
“There are a number of oceanfront homes in Spring Lake where some folks bought existing, and quite fine homes, tore them down and rebuilt oceanview McMansions.”
[198],
A bunch of idiots. I know the houses. Beautiful, at least from the outside, old Victorian homes torn down and replaced by crap.
#199
I have absolutely NO problem with them raising the tolls. I for one take them infrequently and when I do I would much rather deal with less people on the roads. We need that $$ to fund another tunnel and the further the reach of mass transit. I took the Air Train to JFK over the weekend and I must say it really was awesome. NJT Transit to Penn. Penn to Jamaica and the AirTrain to the American Shuttle. Took less than two hours and no hassles. If we double or triple the bridge/tunnel tolls it will really serve to deter those who just jop into the city with their car when the train works just as well.
Corzine: If he fixes things he would win!
#199
“Corzine hasn’t said how much tolls may increase, but a Wall Street finance lawyer, Peter Humphreys, told The Associated Press in August that Corzine would need to increase tolls 150 percent if he was to earn $15 billion, the amount lawmakers have said Corzine’s proposal could be worth.”
150%
On top of the already proposed Port Authority increases…
Hey, I have a wacky idea, CUT SPENDING!
No comments on Van der Moolen?
#189 chgo: I have found over the years, that truly wealthy people (not wannabees), do not discuss or disclose their true wealth, many times they do nto even show it.
3b,
I agree with the first statement but it’d hard not to show it. It’s very difficult to live in a small home and drive a small car wear cheap clothes and have millions in cash. Even if you are modest what are the chances that your wife is. What are the chances that she gets excited over $250 earings? NONE.
While it’s true that you should never discuss your wealth but it’s hard to cry poverty and complain about inflation and gas prices when you own a chain of Donkun Donuts, Applebee’s, etc.
In the past people were more naive and you could hide it. Now it’s a challenge to hide wealth.
Whatever happened to School district consolidation idea? Board of Eduction in each town – What a waste, just have one at county level?
I see so much waste in school system. The added benefit is you get rid of this pay premium to live in so and so town because of school district. It will definitely help revive some mid level towns as their property prices would increase.
209 stuck in moderation again Grim
From the WellsFargo article:
“I don’t think we’re in the ninth inning of unwinding this,” he continued, using a baseball reference. “If we are, it’s an extra-inning game.”
Hey, Corzine-
How about this?
Cut taxes.
Cut spending.
Of course, then, you wouldn’t get re-elected, as the base in Newark, Trenton, Paterson, etc that swills at the gubmint trough will be cut off…and then, you WILL lose the next election.
#207
When anyone and everyone can lease a BMW or Mercedes and buy either a real Prada purse or a fake on eBay that is impossible to tell the difference from a real one then it becomes very difficult to recognize a person with a million or more in the bank versus someone that is drowning in debt. Credit is so stinking easy for anyone to obtain (or has been until recently) that you can’t tell a thing by material possessions. The fake diamonds are so pervasive it is insane these days. For next to nothing you can look rich for very little. This is what society has become unfortunately. My hedge fund manager/banker friends that have the millions in the bank are some of the simplest guys I know (and they rent!). Run, Run from the woman/man that thinks anything is not enough as far as gifts or anything. I am sure many people on this board can afford to buy earrings 10 times that for their wives and they chose not to. My wife would rather see the money in the bank for our retirement/kids education. She could care less what she wears. Find that person and stick with them for life, my 2 cents.
Worth a click..
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/photos/uncategorized/2007/11/10/trojan_house.gif
From MarketWatch:
Freddie, Fannie fall, regulator says not fully in compliance
….
OFHEO further said that current limits on Freddie and Fannie portfolio growth would be lifted when the firms come into compliance. OFHEO “has accomplished much but the challenges facing OFHEO, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and all stakeholders in the nation’s housing markets will continue in the year ahead,” James Lockhart, OFHEO director, said in a statement.
I personally know someone who lives in a house that he paid in the two’s for on a small plot in a working class neighborhood and has an american minivan as his primary car and wears dockers and such from Kohls who made 200 million last year.
Meanwhile any knucklehead in the projects can go to Reedmen in PA and pick up a late model high milage luxery car for 10K and get some quick knocks off and bling off the back of truck and be PIMP in no time, big deal.
Re: Find that person and stick with them for life, my 2 cents.
Or divorce them, that would be a kick in the pants to the tightwad who saved millions to have his showgal 15 minute wife take him to the cleaners.
From MarketWatch:
Financial Stocks: More write-downs send banking and broker stocks lower
Financial stocks were down in afternoon trading Thursday in part on fears that banks will disclose more losses due to the problems in credit markets…
I guess they haven’t learned from Bi that the worrying is over?
Interest-rate futures on the Chicago Board of Trade suggested a 94 percent chance that the U.S. central bank will lower its target rate for overnight lending an additional quarter-percentage point when it meets on Dec. 11, compared with 72 percent odds yesterday. Policy makers have lowered borrowing costs 75 basis points to 4.5 percent since September.
BC (188)-
Sorry, misread that. To me, all quality goals involve both putting the ball in the net AND wrecking the goalie. :)
From Bloomberg:
Fannie Mae Declines on Concerns That It Downplays Credit Losses
Fannie Mae fell as much as 12 percent today after a magazine reported the biggest source of money for U.S. home loans altered how it measures the impact of mortgage foreclosures in a way that downplays credit losses.
An article yesterday on Fortune magazine’s Web site said Fannie Mae changed how it measures its credit loss ratio, or bad loans as a percentage of total loans.
The government-chartered company as a result reported a ratio of 4 basis points for the first nine months of 2007, rather than 7.5 basis points, Fortune reported in a story that relied on information in a Nov. 9 filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Rich (215)-
“OFHEO further said that current limits on Freddie and Fannie portfolio growth would be lifted when the firms come into compliance.”
I like Bernanke’s idea better: just cook up another GSE to handle nothing but jumbos. Hell, yeah…let the same crew that f-ed up Freddie and Fannie loose with bigger sums of money. That’s the ticket.
What would you call the new GSE? Jumbo Mae? Bertha Mae?
Disclaimer: I’m sure it’s on the wrong side of the tracks, certainly not on Richard’s street, nor his side of town. However, completely renovated, with a large property, for under 500K in Westfield??
http://newjersey.craigslist.org/rfs/457800246.html
Clotpoll Says:
November 15th, 2007 at 3:51 pm
Hey, Corzine-
How about this?
Cut taxes.
Cut spending.
Of course, then, you wouldn’t get re-elected, as the base in Newark, Trenton, Paterson, etc that swills at the gubmint trough will be cut off…and then, you WILL lose the next election.
________________________________________________
I guess that’s the same “base” that put George W. “Deficit” Bush office, huh?
the $2 million number is akin to $200k annual salary its a much smaller pool and is a better indicator of separating the masses from the few. i never said what i was worth but if it was $2 million i’d probably kill myself for being a failure ;)
Spring Lake is the new Massapeqa!!! Fortune a few months ago wrote that Massapeqa LI had the most number of million dollar homes for sale for any one town in the country. None are selling. It seems that town is a little too far to commute to the city but in the real estate boom they tore down all the waterfront bungaloos, little summer houses and capes and built mega mcmansions in the seven figure range. Well if the people who work in the city with the high incomes don’t want to live there who can pay the mortgages. No one questioned that when prices were shooting to the moon. But now the Tony Baronies are stuck with the mcmansion and 30 years worth of 5K a month mortgage payments with 15-20K taxes to boot.
It will be a hoot to see a whole row of waterfront 2004, 2005 and 2006 built mansions with a bank owner sticker on the front door!!!
>>When anyone and everyone can lease a BMW or Mercedes and buy either a real Prada purse or a fake on eBay that is impossible to tell the difference from a real one then it becomes very difficult to recognize a person with a million or more in the bank versus someone that is drowning in debt.
well said. cars are not a status of wealth any more. i see people i know for a fact make $40k a year driving around brand new leased Lexus coupes that cost $60k to buy. go figure. houses/neighborhoods used to be a better indicator but even that has suffered due to the latest boom and availability of credit. class and taste are sometimes indicators but that isn’t a surefire correlation.
“What would you call the new GSE? Jumbo Mae? Bertha Mae?”
Simple…Big Bertha
Better yet…
Big Fannie
#223
Why do people always say the taxes are so high in Westfield? Under $8k for that house / lot doesn’t seem bad. Then again, I’m probably just used to seeing Bergen and Essex taxes…
>>for under 500K in Westfield??
i’m on the north side with the bankers this is on the south side on probably the worst stretch in town. there’s a number of multi-families and shall i say undesirables right along that section. you could get more value by spending a bit more and getting a better location
Fat Man and Little Boy? While lacking in humor, they certainly capture the spirit of their current portfolios..
Is that where the Mexican’s live Richard?
>>Why do people always say the taxes are so high in Westfield?
they really aren’t when you see what you get. good schools, good town services (library is excellent, etc.) forget comparing anything to essex that’s in a stratosphere by itself.
#224 Bubble Yum Bush lost in NJ both times.I’m
sure that part of NJ went overwhelmingly Dem.
reech (225)-
“…if it was $2 million i’d probably kill myself for being a failure”
Why don’t you kill yourself anyway?
“i’m on the north side with the bankers”
Gotta love this one. We wouldn’t expect anything less. Hope they are employed in 2008.
#223 That Westfield House just came back on the market (I think at the same price) after weeks being off. It is a busy street, but yeah, if everything was hunky dory in Westfield, it would have been scooped up. I also live on the north side, and have made friends with several neighbors (yes, yes, they know we rent, but they have even invited us into their homes Rich!), some of whom are in the process of selling. Their advice, don’t hurry, they have already had to reduce from what they though they could get.
“…if it was $2 million i’d probably kill myself for being a failure”
Dead man walking?
“…if it was $2 million i’d probably kill myself for being a failure”
Well make sure you leave the 2 mill for me in your will before you do. I’ll tend to your wife for ya.
Richard, why do you waste your time being rebuked on this blog? White wannabees like you should be hanging around elsewhere.
Hey two million isn’t bad for someone under 30! (kidding)But actually if you were 65 that would be not that much considering you had almost 45 years of pension/401k money and a paid off house.
“…if it was $2 million i’d probably kill myself for being a failure”
Make (207):
Tell it to Warren Buffett.
mikeinwaiting Says:
November 15th, 2007 at 4:40 pm
#224 Bubble Yum Bush lost in NJ both times.I’m
sure that part of NJ went overwhelmingly Dem.
________________________________________________
Are you sure mikeinwaiting? I’m pretty sure only tax and spend Dems who swill at the gubmint trough with their Section 8 housing and food stamps could be responsible for putting Dubya in office . . . or maybe it was the cut taxes and spend even more Republicans who like to swill at the public trough, like KBR and Blackwater? Nah–it couldn’t be! Why get mad at Boss Hogg when we can keep kicking the piglets? LOL!
Richard: If you’ll off yourself, I’ll give you $2 million.
Deal?
Make (207):
Tell it to Warren Buffett.
Bear in mind that I never said it wasn’t possible I just said it wasn’t simple. It’s very diffucult not to buy some toys when you can easily afford it is all I’m saying.
I try to hide as much as I can but I have retired and haven’t worked for a long time.
I’m studying Interior Design as I have a goal to design a special place to call home somewhere outside of the city.
What do you think my childhood friends say if I complain about inflation and gas prices.
I only seem to be able to talk about politics, war in Iraq, Sports etc
BTW, Does anyone want Knicks season tickets for 50 cents on a dollar? I just about had enough.
By the way, My wife said” Arod is like a Bentley, if you have to ask how much then you can’t afford him”
Jim Dolans of the yankees ,Hal and hank are gonna berry this franchise too if they sign Arod for 10 yrs.
What’s he gonna do play with passion and contribute at 42 years old.
Please he’s gonna turn around and buy the Yankees whn he’s done. George was a legend his kids will be a joke. First test and they fail.
bye bye yankee playoffs and pennant races for a decade.
The Gold Coast is hoppin’:
http://www.forsalebyowner.com/listing/42BAD
John Says:
November 15th, 2007 at 4:29 pm
Spring Lake is the new Massapeqa!!! Fortune a few months ago wrote that Massapeqa LI had the most number of million dollar homes for sale for any one town in the country. None are selling. It seems that town is a little too far to commute to the city
The trip to NY is a real drag from Spring Lake. I have made it via train and car. FOr the money, one is better off in a place in the city and owning a beach house in the islands, or further south and purchasing fractional ownership of a jet to get there. It cuts down on the commute, makes it possible to enjoy the city. And, it allows for use of far nicer beaches, with fewer crowds, and for a greater number of months each year.
BTW completely offtopic: My Landlord told me he was fixin’ to sell the townhouse I’m renting, which sent me into looking for a new place.. Turns out there’s a TH for rent that’s within easy bicycle distance (~3 mi) to my company’s new facility, nicer neighborhood, no freight trains, and after factoring out wage taxes and parking fees it’ll actually cost _less_ than my current place..
And it has a garage and elevated deck!
Karma works in mysterious ways.. Fingers x’d that I get it (but the rent is right about 25% of net, should be no problem)..
Happy upcoming turkey week!
Mike NJ Says:
November 15th, 2007 at 3:51 pm
#207 When anyone and everyone can lease a BMW or Mercedes and buy either a real Prada purse or a fake on eBay that is impossible to tell the difference from a real one then it becomes very difficult to recognize a person with a million or more in the bank versus someone that is drowning in debt. Credit is so stinking easy for anyone to obtain (or has been until recently) that you can’t tell a thing by material possessions. The fake diamonds are so pervasive it is insane these days. For next to nothing you can look rich for very little. This is what society has become unfortunately.
Mike: I can tell because I do work for them and they by definition have to open the kimono…ultimately, there is just no way to tell….to be honest with you, it took for Reech for me to realize that I think that basically the vibe on this blog is that no one gives a $hit. We have a shared interest and also an appreciation for stimulating discourse.
Leave it to Reech to tar the place with his banal, bankrupt and vacuous mandate…..I guess he lives in the right town and the right part of it…..congrats…
“BTW, Does anyone want Knicks season tickets for 50 cents on a dollar?”
Make,
You’d be stealing $ from someone. They are not worth .25 on the dollar.
Also, tell Tutti to stop talking about Bentley’s.
Just found out where Barry Bonds will be working next year…..not in the MLB, but the CA penal league. He won’t be jacking home runs, but making license plates..
http://breakingnews.nypost.com/dynamic/stories/B/BBN_BONDS_INDICTED?SITE=NYNYP&SECTION=HOME
richard,
My net worth currently exceeds 2,000,000 peso’s, can i still be in your club?????
“not in the MLB, but the CA penal league. He won’t be jacking home runs, but making license plates..”
Nice.
It’s all ARod’s fault.
“I’m surprised,” said John Burris, one of Bonds’ attorneys, “but there’s been an effort to get Barry for a long time. I’m curious what evidence they have now they didn’t have before.”
I’ll bet he is. No bluster here about “there can be no such evidence as my client did nothing wrong.”
#222 Clot: I respectfully offer three possible names for the new GSE:
“Janis Joplin Mae”
“Jim Morrison Mae”
“Jimi Hendrix Mae”
All three choked to death on their own vomit.
“All three choked to death on their own vomit.”
Better than choking to death on someone else’s vomit
make (246)-
“BTW, Does anyone want Knicks season tickets for 50 cents on a dollar?”
Not if they’re downwind from Dolan.
Although the stench emanating from the court might cancel out his.
Loving Marbury’s team play this year…
#257 You are so right!! LOL!!!!!!!!!!
Richard,
You might as well yell your insecurities from the rooftops. How about trying to obtain people’s respect from something other than such pathetic, juvenile posts.
Maybe it’s tough being the also-ran amidst all those high earning bankers, but you might try having a bit of class for change.
Spend a little less time with the condescension and a little more time being introspective. It would serve you well- on this blog and in real life.
You’ve certainly failed in social skills.
chicagofinance Says:
November 15th, 2007 at 5:51 pm
“We have a shared interest and also an appreciation for stimulating discourse.”
That’s extraordinarily expressive and completely encompasses my feelings.
You da man. ;)
‘Cept in my Pennsyltucky town, we’d say, I hang over there so I can go home and laugh at those m*f*rs.
Well first he tells us he is worth 2 million, then when the general resposne is who cares, he now tells us he is worth more than 2 million.
I guess you just keep picking a number that will impress, pick a number, any number.
But now horror of horrors, we are to believe that there is not only a so-so section in Brigadoon, but this section has mulyi-families, and undesireables!! In Brigadoon!!
#113
I was just visiting with a couple of friends who are in B-school in Cambridge last weekend (Richard, that name drop was for you.)
They both said that hiring is way off this year. Private Equity is not hiring at all. Many people are scrambling.
I am wealthy.
I live in the right part of the right town.
I live near some people who are bankers. They are very impressive.
I have met some people whose names you may be familiar with.
Fear me.
Love me.
Respect my opinion regarding whether the value of Brigadoon real estate is rising or falling (bearing in mind that we are only speaking of the right parts of Brigadoon – you know – near the bankers).
hey RayC – how funny would it be if you and I lived on either side of Reech?
“Private Equity is not hiring at all.”
that’s not the only thing PE isn’t doing….
“Outofstater Says:
November 15th, 2007 at 7:36 pm
#257 You are so right!! LOL!!!!!!!!!!”
I can’t take credit – I was quoting Christopher Guest
this ain’t good:
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2007/11/why-thain-over-.html
nobody tell bi
Steve [260],
He can’t help himself. Just a d*ck. I said awhile ago, he talks as if he’s a king. Unfortunately, he’s trying to justify his recent buy, around the 4th quarter of 2006. He’s a flawless market timer, capitulating at the top of the market. His posts reek of insecurity and are actually moronic.
Back to the king. The king may wear a crown. To me, it’s just a hat with a hole in the middle. It allows the rain to pond on a brainless head.
patient [268],
Gaspirano reported this last night. Not surprising at all.
SO lets see, the housing market is crumbling.. (more of those jihadist comments)and credit card debt is next in line. look like this is going to be one heck of a roller coaster ride!
In 1989 the average amount of credit card debt per household was $2,768. By 2004, that number had increased 89 percent to $5,219. Flat wages, rising costs, and material desires have all helped to contribute to the rapid increase.
link to article: http://tinyurl.com/35a8p6
He’s a flawless market timer, capitulating at the top of the market.
___
BCB (269),
Another classic! LOL
I hear ML is now using their CDO modeling to price Brigadoon real estate – turns out it’s a screaming buy!
Also, they predict Pets.com is due for a major comeback.
#265 njpatient
I am going to throw tennis balls over the neighbor’s house, if one hits you, we’ve found him.
I’d prefer reading in my native language, because my knowledge of your languange is no so well. But it was interesting!
I’d prefer reading in my native language, because my knowledge of your languange is no so well. But it was interesting! Look for some my links: