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subprime reset freeze across the board.
not fair to those of us who pay our bills on time .
I agree. I want my bailout in the form of cash please. so much for free markets. whats your saying Grim? socialized losses?
From the WSJ:
U.S., Banks Near
A Plan to Freeze
Subprime Rates
By DEBORAH SOLOMON and MICHAEL M. PHILLIPS
November 30, 2007; Page A1
WASHINGTON — The Bush administration and major financial institutions are close to agreeing on a plan that would temporarily freeze interest rates on certain troubled subprime home loans, according to people familiar with the negotiations.
An accord could reassure investors and strapped homeowners, both of whom are anxious as interest rates on more than two million adjustable mortgages are scheduled to jump over the next two years. It could also give a boost to the Bush administration, which is facing criticism for inaction amid the recent housing turmoil.
The plan is being negotiated between regulators including the Treasury Department and a coalition of mortgage-related companies including Citigroup Inc., Wells Fargo & Co., Washington Mutual Inc. and Countrywide Financial Corp. People familiar with the talks say the individual members have agreed to follow any agreement reached by the coalition, which is called the Hope Now Alliance.
Details of the plan, which could be announced as early as next week, are still being worked out. In general, the government and the coalition have largely agreed to extend the lower introductory rate on home loans for certain borrowers who will have trouble making payments once their mortgages increase.
Exactly which borrowers will qualify for the freeze and how long the freeze would last are yet to be determined. Under one scenario, the freeze could run as long as seven years. The parties are developing standard criteria that would determine eligibility. The criteria should be finalized by the end of year.
Amazing !!! Responsible folks are always punished. That does it …..am buying 3 mil. home and let the OTHERS pay for it!!!
From the WSJ:
They’ll Take Manhattan — For Less
No Longer Immune,
Sales and Prices Slip;
Waiting for Bonus Time
By BEN CASSELMAN
November 30, 2007; Page W1
Even as the national housing market has been hit by slow sales and falling prices, Manhattan has continued to shine. But now its light may be dimming.
Fewer apartments are being sold — 858 went into contract in September, a 9.9% drop from a year ago and the lowest total in two years, according to brokerage Corcoran Group — and the inventory of unsold apartments is increasing. Prices are also leveling off. The median price of a Manhattan apartment fell 3.4% in the third quarter from the previous one, according to the research firm Radar Logic. The firm says properties are sitting on the market longer, too, an average of 123 days, up from 94 days at the peak of the market in 2005.
Developers used to seeing yet-to-be-built apartments get snapped up sight-unseen are increasingly offering incentives, from help with closing costs to museum memberships, to jump-start sales. “Buyers are more hesitant,” says Hall Willkie, president of brokerage Brown Harris Stevens.
One big factor is how much money New York’s army of financial executives will make this year, given the wild swings on Wall Street. “Right now, everyone’s waiting for bonus time,” says Stephen Kliegerman, executive director of development marketing for brokerage Halstead Property. “No one knows what to expect.” Many analysts anticipate this year’s Wall Street bonuses, which will be paid early in 2008, to be roughly equal to last year’s record $36 billion. But individual payouts will vary much more widely than in recent years, with bankers in the mortgage sector receiving much less than last year, and those working in healthier markets making far more.
Trouble in the financial sector will hurt home sales, says Nouriel Roubini, an economics professor at New York University’s Stern School of Business. “We’re talking about hundreds of billions of dollars in losses on Wall Street,” he says. “We could see people being fired, and when that happens, demand will fall.”
Manhattan makes up a tiny fraction of U.S. home sales. Its housing market is closely watched, however, because of the city’s position at the center of the financial and media worlds. In recent months, the continuing strength of its real-estate market has drawn even more attention, and led many local real-estate professionals to contend that Manhattan is immune to the forces that have battered much of the rest of the country.
But few independent experts buy that argument. Christopher Mayer, a Columbia University professor and director of the school’s Paul Milstein Center for Real Estate, says the idea that Manhattan will continue to boom amid a nationwide housing bust is “wishful thinking.”
“I certainly don’t think Manhattan is recession-proof,” Prof. Mayer says. “History just says that’s a wrong argument.”
Pls. sighn a pettion!!
http://www.petitiononline.com/bailout/petition.html
WSj reports via cnbc sub-prime loan rate freeze by investors,large banks & lenders.
I think we all just got screwed.But maybe if you have a reset on hold for 2 yrs it gives you time to sell before hand.More houses on market?
Freeze them, do it now, across the board.
Doing so will effectively eliminate the subprime, ARM, and Alt-A marketplace. New originations of these loans will slow to a trickle as prices of these products are hiked to compensate for these risks. Investors will disappear from the secondary marketplace as the risk of operating in this environment is just too high (if they haven’t already).
This move is an acknowledgement by the White House that the U.S. housing market is in a serious crisis. I have no doubt that even the most stringent lending legislation would have no problem being passed.
Folks that have been pining for a return to the days of the 30y fixed (with free proctology exam), looks like you are going to get it (no, not the exam).
Time to find myself as much of a property as I can afford on a 2/28 (yes, they still exist…for now), get it bought…and default.
The gubmint, in its infinite desire to “help”, is now- as an unintended consequence- going to contract the menu of mortgage choices down to one (30 yr fixed, 20% down).
This will only end up making things worse.
Exactly which borrowers will qualify for the freeze and how long the freeze would last are yet to be determined.
This sounds like another “mission accomplished” :)
mike (8)-
“I think we all just got screwed. But maybe if you have a reset on hold for 2 yrs it gives you time to sell before hand. More houses on market?”
Mikey, we’re all getting it…Abner Louima-style. The only sale that can be arranged during the forebearance period on the vast majority of these homes is a short sale.
Here is a glimpse into the future:
Required means testing (repayment ability)
Required income/asset verification
Assignee liability
Broker/LO licensing
YSP elimination
New regulators
“Tangible benefit” refinancing
Grim What do you think this will do to the downward trend?No more sub-prime was already a given.Loan standards were already getting tougher.
Zoe Cruz tossed at MS.
mike (14)-
Good luck getting a stated-income or no-doc loan if you’re self-employed, too.
I’m hopping mad.I can’t curse enough at these bast##ds.Kudlow did elude to future reset spike in 2010-11 on CNBC.Gov new it had to do something election YR.Is this just window dressing, we will have to wait for details on how they plan to do this.
Clotpoll Says:
The gubmint, in its infinite desire to “help”, is now- as an unintended consequence- going to contract the menu of mortgage choices down to one (30 yr fixed, 20% down).
Agreed. What lender will want to offer ARM’s if down the road they are prevented from letting the rate adjust to market. What’s the point in offering them? The mortgage industry will revert back to how things were in the 70’s. The severe pullback of mortgage availability will have dire consequences in the national housing market.
Clotpoll Says:
Good luck getting a stated-income or no-doc loan if you’re self-employed, too.
Yup, back to two years tax returns, personal and business with ALL schedules.
No tickie, no laundry.
X,
What folks don’t realize is that the reason an ARM rate is lower than the fixed-rate is become the borrower is bearing the interest rate risk, not the lender. The differential between a fixed-rate and adjustable-rate of the same duration is the risk premium of the lender bearing that interest rate risk. The lower rate that the borrower pays is his/her compensation for bearing that risk.
If a lender/servicer is required to “fix a rate”, it means that the lender will bear the interest-rate risk again, however, without being compensated for bearing that risk. The only viable option is to raise the rate on ARM products to a point at which they are compensated for some portion of that portfolio being fixed in the future.
The differential between non-teaser ARM and fixed-rate loans isn’t significant, but the differential between teasers and fixed-rates is. Given that differential, along with the legislative environment, it’s likely that teaser loans have just been eliminated.
You can freeze all you want but until prices fall to a level where people can afford a home, things will continue to deteriorate.
(20) Grim
Teaser rates are a thing of the past. Expect All ARM’s to start out with the fully indexed rate.
I Wonder – Did no banks already counted thouse higher rates on ARMS/NEg arm as profits in theoir books – even ythe unpaid negative ARMS???
Does this means that we are in for even more writedowns by the banks???
Sorry my fingers are frozen- can not type – it is cold outside…
grim Says:
November 30th, 2007 at 7:32 am
Here is a glimpse into the future:
Required means testing (repayment ability)
Required income/asset verification
Assignee liability
Broker/LO licensing
YSP elimination
New regulators
“Tangible benefit” refinancing
I would add one more line to this:
HELOC’s or mortgage equity withdrawals limited at 80% of appraised value?? Like it is Texas right now?
Al (23)-
My understanding is that banks book negative amortization as profit, but I could be wrong…
Anybody have a resource that knows how to appeal a flood hazard designation? It is a long story..
This will not stop price declines, it will only prolong the pain. The “important thing” is to delay the problem until after November 2008.
Talk about picking winners and losers. You could now conceivably have two neighbors with 2/28 mortgages, one with sufficient income paying at 9%, and the deadbeat next door on a gubmint negotiated teaser for 7 more years. What a joke.
Somebody help me, I am not a fixed-income MBS person. How do any of these “workouts” do anything to keep up the prices on these mortgages/MBS? Unless you hold them to maturity, you’re still hosed right? Either the interest received is lower or the collateral behind the mortgage is worth much less or probably both. Don’t those things completely whack the price if you want to sell the mortgage?
Just watched Barbara Corcoran on The Today Show. She was talking about the “hot” places to buy. She actually promoted Reading Pa and one of the positives is it’s commuting proximity to NYC and Philly. I did the directions on google and it is 123 miles (2 hours and 23 minutes) from Reading to NYC. Is she on crack? I guess you could commute from Reading to Philly but it’s still 64 miles (1 hour and 12 minutes).
When Bush failed to get approval for feeding Social Security dollars into the Wall Street Casino, the fall back was ficticious Mortgage dollars bundled into Structured Investment Vehicles. The Wall Street Casino is a Ponzi Scheme and requires a never ending supply of fuel. Buying Physical Stocks or Bonds is Investing; Short, Long, Hedging, etc., is Gambling. I wonder, after they lower the interest rates to zero like Japan, what the Market will do? Oh I forgot, we are the “New Economy”, Japan I guess was the “Old Economy”.
If you have a private jet it is minutes to NYC….
Soon they will be commuting from Pittsburg because its only a short plane ride from NYC. She is on Crack. I saw another one
yesterday on Bloom promoting purchase now
what a bargin.
It’s sick to see this unfold, we will have to bail out those who can’t pay their own
bills.
I really don’t get how she can go on TV and promote buying real estate at this point. She has absolutely no credibility at all.
She has a house to sell in Reading PA.
And as far as bail-out – we need to see at what level will rates be fixed at – if they are fixed at current level for 30 years fixed loan – I have no problem with it.
Remember – it might be another political gimmick – just to show that government is doing something.
From MarketWatch:
U.S. incomes fall, spending flat in October
Growth in U.S. consumer spending ground to a halt in October, while inflation eroded American households’ modest gains in income, the Commerce Department reported Friday.
Nominal incomes rose just 0.2% in October despite strong job growth. But after accounting for the 0.3% rise in prices, real after-tax incomes fell 0.1%.
Consumer spending increased 0.2% in nominal terms and was flat after adjusting for inflation. Spending was the weakest since March.
Both incomes and spending were slightly weaker than expected on Wall Street.
Clot [10],
I was thinking the same. 2011 seems as if it mirrors 2008, resets. Why doesn’t everybody buy in 2009, get an adjustable and sit back and wait for the 2011 bailout.
It’s total BS stating that the banks will be involved in this. Yeah, like putting your toe in the ocean. How the hell can Countryslide participate, the Atlanta Federal Home Loan Bank has been providing them oxygen for the past couple of months. In addition to that, Citi pays an interste rate that is normally associated with with a 3rd world scam? Sure they are participating. Since there is nowhere else in the world that will accept its crap, they participate by sending it to the US taxpayer. They’ll do cartwheels to mask this and spin,spin,spin. Sure it’s a bank sponsored bailout. What a crock of s*it. They can’t make it obvious that crap loans are being transferred from the public sector to the taxpayer balance sheet.
Nobody can say that they didn’t see this coming. We had the Resolution Trust Corp back in the 90’s, why not call this The Resolution Bust Corp.? Now everybody will be happy, especially the IB’s. Their off balance sheet crap will not be required to be recorded. It simply is transferred to us.
What a great country. Oops, what happened to that currency?
Remember – it might be another political gimmick – just to show that government is doing something.
Like the NJ bailout that was subsequently canned when they realized that very few people actually qualified, and those that did couldn’t afford the higher fixed rate loan?
U.S. Oct. real disposable incomes fall 0.1%
Real consumer spending – flat.
personal consumption expenditure price index +0.3%
U.S. Oct. personal savings rate slips to 0.5%
>>
Bring on the rate cuts.
Freezing rates won’t save anything. Most of these people are in over their heads anyway.
Next.
“But after accounting for the 0.3% rise in prices, real after-tax incomes fell 0.1%.”
[36],
….and if you calculate real inflation, real incomes fell approx 0.8-1.0%. Real wages and incomes rising? Don’t judge by your everyday costs for food and energy. Take solace in the fact that a blackbox interprets the data differently as compared to the retail outlets.
Anyone want to talk about how a flat OFHEO conforming loan limit creates a declining real home price ceiling (of sorts) in our area?
OFHEO SFH (real) Conforming Loan Limit
2003 $366,432 (adjusted, cpi)
2004 $369,094 (adjusted, cpi)
2005 $384,761 (adjusted, cpi)
2006 $432,174 (adjusted, cpi)
2007 $417,000 (not adjusted)
2008 $417,000 (not adjusted)
On a real basis, the conforming loan limit has fallen by approximately 3-4% from 2006.
If the inflation remains at trend, we’re likely to see the following scenario in 2008.
OFHEO SFH (real) Conforming Loan Limit (assumed)
2003 $374,784 (forecast, cpi)
2004 $378,932 (forecast, cpi)
2005 $397,796 (forecast, cpi)
2006 $446,115 (forecast, cpi)
2007 $432,174 (forecast, cpi)
2008 $417,000 (not adjusted)
FedEx to raise ground delivery rates by 4.9% on Jan. 7
grim/Rich: Sorry I do not have the njmls number, but I was following a house in River Edge (4 bed 2 bath cape) it is no longer on the mls, can you tell me if if went UC when you get a chance.
#9 grim The freeze will be at theri current rates is that not right?
“A Plan to Freeze Subprime Rates”
Beyond the anti free market nature of this is the profoundly morally hazardous nature of it: you may have an unaffordable rate reset that’s about to hit, but you won’t get the benefit of the freeze unless you have lousy credit (unless they’re using “subprime” as a substitute for “ARM”)
Clot,
Mikey, we’re all getting it…Abner Louima-style
There is nobody that makes me laugh like you, your demented and intelligent the most lethal combination. Have you thought of changing careers, maybe Serial Killer??
I need to know, do these thoughts just come to you w/the name or are thinking what was that guy’s name, and then you google -guy + plunger + NYC?.
I can think of very few that fast, like when my husband hits that last nerve and I suddenly remember Lorena Bobbit. No googling necassary.
KL
3b,
I don’t even think a proposal has been agreed upon yet. We’re all reacting to what the media is speculating on and what the talking heads have said.
Could turn out exactly like every other “bailout” attempt to date, in the trashcan because it can’t really help anyone.
pretorius Says:
November 30th, 2007 at 12:21 am
BC Bob, Tried to find the post but couldn’t. You need to give me a better description. I did notice that chifi had numerous posts about youtube videos though.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ihd4G9XxJOc&feature=related
JB,
They will come up with something. That said, it will be akin to putting a band aid on a hemorrhage. There is no way our govt will sit back and watch millions lose their home, especially in an election year. There will be a new agency created, some federal mortgage agency, a slush fund. Give it to an IB and securitize it.
It will eventually backfire, it will exacerbate the problem. The economy will feel the effects of this for years. You’ll have strapped homeowners, who can’t afford to live there now, anchored to an asset that is still depreciating. OK, they get a temporary reprieve. How many will continue to pay for this asset when it is 20% less than their free option? A 500K house is now worth 400K, why struggle with it. They’ll eventually want to free themselves from this anchor and get back to doing what they do best, spend.
Whatever gimmick they come up with, will go for naught. Robbing Peter to pay Paul, for a temporary stay. Paul will eventually foreclose, just at a later date. Unfortunately, the debt paid for this travesty will remain.
BC,
Super-
SIVMBS3b (44)
What street?
grim Says:
Could turn out exactly like every other “bailout” attempt to date, in the trashcan because it can’t really help anyone.
Just imagine what it will do to the value of the MBS’s tied to these loans. The market value is already 20 cents on the dollar for them with the expectation that the rates will reset to a much higher rate. If the rate is locked at the teaser rate, the mortgage will be completely worthless
From Bloomberg:
Housing Slump’s Third Year Will Be `Deepest’ Since World War II
As the U.S. housing slump enters its third year, there is no sign of dawn in the darkness that is paralyzing home building, home buying and home lending.
Standard & Poor’s 15-member Supercomposite Homebuilding Index tumbled 62 percent this year as of yesterday, the largest drop since the benchmark was started in 1995. The companies have lost about $35 billion of market value.
The outlook is bleak with new home sales projected to fall 13 percent in 2008, according to estimates from the National Association of Realtors in Chicago, even as interest rates drop. Losses at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two biggest U.S. providers of mortgage financing, may restrict the availability of home loans, and chief executive officers at D.R. Horton Inc. and Centex Corp. expect another tough year.
“This looks like it’s going to be the deepest correction of any housing correction since World War II, and the question really is, `What’s the duration, how long will it be?”’ Centex CEO Timothy Eller said at a JPMorgan Chase & Co. conference in Las Vegas on Nov. 27.
grim Says:
Could turn out exactly like every other “bailout” attempt to date, in the trashcan because it can’t really help anyone.
Just imagine what it will do to the value of the MBS’s tied to these loans. The market value is already 20 cents on the dollar for them with the expectation that the rates will reset to a much higher rate. If the rate is locked at the teaser rate, the mortgage will be completely worthless. Wall St. ain’t gonna let that happen.
3b,
205 Monroe is under contract as of 11/29
Yesterday someone knocked the posting of comp killers that were on busy streets. After thinking about tht for a moment I came to the conclusion that no matter how bad the street or neighborhood is it does not matter and I wonder if I am missing something here? When these houses that were listed as comp killers were sold before (original purchase price) they were on the SAME street as they were when sold recently. The price decline for those properties cannot be attributed to their location, can it? Also, they would be comps for similar homes in similar locations, which I assume would be busy streets. No?
Re the freeze, somebody please remind me which political party to blame.
#58 please remind me which political party to blame.
The incumbent party?
Shore,
Spot on, the criticism was both unfounded and a poor attempt at justification.
The reasoning is as follows – They are on the busy street so they are not DEsirable – so price on them dropped. HOwever MY HOME is desirable so there is no way it’s price would drop…
“Al Says:
November 30th, 2007 at 7:53 am
I Wonder – Did no banks already counted thouse higher rates on ARMS/NEg arm as profits in theoir books – even ythe unpaid negative ARMS???
Does this means that we are in for even more writedowns by the banks???”
I think this is likely a problem. Like Black-Scholes re options, I’m sure when the accountants project the future revenue stream of an ARM there’s a volatility factor which, given recent rates, likely pointed upward. Beyond that, with all these teaser rates, the value of the guaranteed future upward rate re-set was included.
Next question is whether, for a subprime ARM due for reset that is otherwise a negative amortization loan – do they freeze it and let the principal grow? WTF…
re: 2-28 freeze.
They are just going to sweep it under the rug and sprinkle some fairy dust on it.
Estimates are that 150,000 of these 2-28 loans are resetting every month. There is no way the banks will be able to properly evaluate all of those deadbeats, especially since most of them did not read the fine print on their mortgages in the first place and don’t have any kind of verifiable income.
Secretary Paulson and the chairman of the FDIC Sheila Bair for the last month have been pressing the lenders to modify terms in a sweeping way, rather than going through a time-consuming case-by-case evaluation.
Even if they are going to have some kind of
qualification process it will not be thorough.
Next question is whether, for a subprime ARM due for reset that is otherwise a negative amortization loan – do they freeze it and let the principal grow?
This is not possible unless these loans have their lifetime negative amortization caps removed as well. Once a Neg-Am loan hits this cap, it is forced into a fully amortizing mode. If you fixed the loan at the neg-am rate, the borrower would eventually hit the neg-am cap. The increase in loan princ. along with the shift from neg-am to amortizing would make for a massive payment shock, regardless of the current rate.
10, 18, 20
clot, x, grim
good stuff
Freezes will not work!!!
Lets face it those who did these style loans didnt have the money to begin with and were looking for the quick profit on buying a home to sell it within 2 years for BIG PROFITS. But that didnt work. The homes are worth less. Essentially we would be paying for these people’s poor investments or get rich quick plans that didnt pan out. Its harsh but thats what happens when you buy things you cant afford. What’s next I cant afford the items I purchased on my credit cards and want the government and everyone else to pay for my reckless purchasing habits?
If you freeze the rate it might be worse as these homes are going to lose even more money over the next year then when they finally lose the home the bank will be sitting on even bigger losses.
Simple Fact never overbudget yourself! Nothing is Risk Free.
64 grim
That was really my point – it’s not going to be possible to simply freeze many of these loans.
“This will not stop price declines, it will only prolong the pain.”
I actually think that clot, grim, x and others make a very good case that this would speed up price declines.
#28 Rob
“The “important thing” is to delay the problem until after November 2008.”
Agree wholeheartedly. Yet another attempt by our wonderful CEO administration to palm off it’s cr@p on somebody else.
What was the slogan in 2000? “Bringing back PERSONAL RESPONSIBILITY”? Ha!
“Just watched Barbara Corcoran on The Today Show. She was talking about the “hot” places to buy. […] Is she on crack?”
Yes.
Simple answers to simple questions.
“Growth in U.S. consumer spending ground to a halt in October, while inflation eroded American households’ modest gains in income, the Commerce Department reported Friday.
Nominal incomes rose just 0.2% in October despite strong job growth. But after accounting for the 0.3% rise in prices, real after-tax incomes fell 0.1%.
Consumer spending increased 0.2% in nominal terms and was flat after adjusting for inflation. Spending was the weakest since March.”
GREAT NEWS!!! WILL RESULT IN A RATE CUT!!!
BUY! BUY! BUY!!!
Does this mean the ratings agencies get additional fees because they have to now go back and re-rate all the stuff they just re-rated as junk back too AAA, until a later date, at which time they will charge fees to re-rate it back to junk?
Or is it safe to say it is still just junk?
#56 Rich Thanks. Oh well I will just have to find another one to follow, unelss this one comes back on the market.
It was listed at 499K, I am very curious to see what the final sales price will be assuming it closes.
From what I can see, everything else in River Edge and Oradell seems to be just sitting.
“Citi pays an interste rate that is normally associated with with a 3rd world scam?”
Succinct and accurate, BC Bob. I was watching Cokehead Kudlow on my teevee this morning, and he was going on about how great that deal was for Citi. Our biggest bank has to pay 11% to borrow, and that’s good?!?
My only question is whether Abu Dhabi got a big enough risk premium…
If you think that the Freeze is bad policy, the White House’s main swirchboard number is 202-456-1414. The comment line is 202-456-1111. FOr your House Members number, go to house.gov and the various numbers are in a drop-down list.
Teasers aside, nobody that needed a low-rate ARM to qualify between 2002 and 2005 can be refinanced into a fixed rate loan at current rates.
The rate on their 30y fixed would need to be so low that these loans could never be securitized and sold in the secondary market.
The value of those loans would be pennies on the dollar compared to what the current loans were worth, even in default.
The only other option would seem to be debt forgiveness for the borrowers, paid for by the investors or servicers. This would likely have the unfortunate side effect of destroying the secondary market.
#40 Richie,
I agree, i think that there are too many people in over their heads from the get go. These are all of the people who bought as much as they could and expected to cover the difference between what they could actually pay and what they agreed to pay with the astronomical increases in homes prices continuing.
on another note, why would it be bad if we actually went back to 20% down 30yr Fixed. There would certainly be some pain involved as we contract from an overheated housing market, but the market would be much stronger. Am i missing something??? And consider we are at historic home owner ship rates. Home ownership is not for everyone and has been shown (dont have the link to the study) through a study done in the 90’s that pushing low income families into owner ship actually hurts them more then if they were to continue renting
So, the Govt. is advocating having people who made bad decisions get a break in interest BUT the principle stays put and the homes are losing value so what the heck is the value. People get to continue renting from the bank, go further under water, and will likely never get out from under he debt all while encouraging risky and ill-advised behavioe and shoving a stick into the eyes of people who act appropriately.
“Housing Slump’s Third Year Will Be `Deepest’ Since World War II”
That can’t be true! Pretorius, tell’m that can’t be true!!!
NY Fed. has a few notes on mortgage delinquencies through August;
%12 of Sub-primes 60 + days del.
7% of those in foreclosure
3% of Alt-A 60+ late
2% in foreclosure.
http://www.ny.frb.org/regional/subprime.html
Sorry to digress…going back to yesterday’s discussion on education, here’s an interesting paragraph from today’s WSJ:
Foreign-born students holding temporary visas received 33% of all research doctorates awarded by U.S. universities in 2006, according to an annual survey by the National Opinion Research Center at the University of Chicago. That number has climbed from 25% in 2001. But more to the point of business competitiveness, foreign students comprised 44% of science and engineering doctorates last year.
“China was the country of origin for the largest number of non-U.S. doctorates in 2006,” says the report, followed by India, Korea, Taiwan and Canada. “The percentage of doctorates earned by U.S. citizens ranged from lows of 32% in engineering and 47% in physical sciences, to highs of 87% in education and 78% in humanities.”
Shore,
An ownership society.
But in true Orwellian fashion, it is the homes that own the lives of their debtors, not the other way around.
you alo have to realize that if inflation will keep on going – eventually it will trickle down and cause increase in salaries – so if people who ioverpaid will be given long anough time to hold onto their homes – eventually incomes will raise due to inflation. SO goverment helping thouse people two-fold – one freezing rated and secong – devaluing dollar as much as it can.
Please excuse the typos above.
#82 – Tyler Durden says – Sometimes the things you own end up owning you.
Sorry, couldn’t help myself there.
““This looks like it’s going to be the deepest correction of any housing correction since World War II, and the question really is, `What’s the duration, how long will it be?”’ Centex CEO Timothy Eller said at a JPMorgan Chase & Co. conference in Las Vegas on Nov. 27.”
That guys a dummy! Tell him he’s a dummy, pretorius!!
non-residential private construction falls by 0.5%
http://www.census.gov/const/C30/release.pdf
the article in the paper says that subprime borrowers will be divided into 3 groups: (i’m paraphrasing)
– those who can pay the higher rate
– those who can’t pay even if the rate stays steady
-those who can pay if the rate remains the teaser, or if the maturity date is extended.
they will only be able to help the third group.
one problem i foresee is those in the first group. let’s say someone takes on overtime, or spouse gets a job, or they take a second job in order to afford to stay in the house, what incentive do they have to continue that? – they’d be better off quitting that extra job and using it for leisure. it’s just common sense.
Al,
So in 2015, the bulls will bask in the glory that the $500k NJ cape hasn’t dropped a single cent, and in fact, is still selling for $500k.
Unfortunately, a gallon of milk will be 20 dollars, and a new Hybrid Civic will be selling for just under $100k.
“Al Says:
November 30th, 2007 at 9:31 am
The reasoning is as follows – They are on the busy street so they are not DEsirable – so price on them dropped. HOwever MY HOME is desirable so there is no way it’s price would drop…”
Shore’s point (and a correct one) is that the houses were already on the “busy street” – so why did the price drop? No one noticed the street until last month?
I am not an currency expert, but doesnt a bailout of this scale have the very real potential to destroy the US$? What country is going to be willing to hold onto US investments or even a large reserve of US$ if the US government is going to start taking plays out of the Chinese economic play book.
“re: 2-28 freeze.
They are just going to sweep it under the rug and sprinkle some fairy dust on it.”
Larry Craig is drafting that legislation as we speak….
My next question is, if the GOV is really going to go through with this bailout on such a scale, why not jump in. There has to be a way to benefit from this. Maybe sink my credit rating by buying up some housing and then defaulting while the wifes assets and credit stay untouched. I know its not that simple but i would imagine that there is some sort of scheme that could be thrown togather….
Grim,
On yesterdays’ post you said you’d be interested in Monmouth-Ocean counties MLS. What would it cost you to subscribe?
“I am not an currency expert, but doesnt a bailout of this scale have the very real potential to destroy the US$?”
kettle,
Sell the rumor buy the news? The PPT is smoking today.
Kettle,
What I do know is that you can probably save 3-4 voters in the midwest for the price of 1 voter in NJ.
Who would you save?
“grim Says:
November 30th, 2007 at 10:07 am
Shore,
An ownership society.”
That was the phrase that leapt to my mind.
Also, I remember that “the CEO President” and his VEEP were oil guys, and they were going to do something about the high price of oil that Clinton was so ineffective in dealing with. It’s dropping, though – I’m sure it will be back to $40 soon enough.
grim Says:
November 30th, 2007 at 10:11 am
Al,
So in 2015, the bulls will bask in the glory that the $500k NJ cape hasn’t dropped a single cent, and in fact, is still selling for $500k.
Unfortunately, a gallon of milk will be 20 dollars, and a new Hybrid Civic will be selling for just under $100k.
I think – house will be still 500K and Hyrid actually will be selling for 200K (taxes on the house will be 100K/year)
Don’t start me on milk prices. Every week I go to buy milk at costco and see a small increase. Every week. (I kept all recepts for the last 3 years – thats how I determine my own CPI.)
And also – to post#90
– I am not advocating that this point of view is correct – all I am saying that it has some merit – during boom – houses on busy street were grossly over priced and even non-desirable houses were selling a huge premium.
Boom is gone, now non-desirable houses are getting slammed. Bad town, bad location = huge drop in prices.
Dont’ get me wrong I am touting housing to become affordable as much as everyone else. I do belive that housing in NJ is ovepriced. But i will easilly pay 10-15% premium for a house on a dead end street or small street vs.house on a busy local road.
As a matter of fact I will not buy a house on a busy road – I hate listening to traffic noise, and pollition which comes with traffic. Unless this house will be sooooo cheap that I can easilly get positive cash flow as investment property. Which means it will probably have to be at about 50% off from current prices.
I can never understand buiders building luxury condos near highways – I thought – who would want to buy thouse – but apparently people do not care.
guys. you can debate this bail-out proposal and be frustrated here forever. my best advice is to go over FRB charter one more time and go out to find bargains which will not be left there before too long.
besides, oil is under $90 now. this is what the gov and main street folks want.
kettle #93 –
Had exactly the same idea – a “strategic divorce”, buy an unaffordable house on husbands credit, default (or get super special rate forever) all the while maintaining my own credit standing to benefit from the tanked market later.
HAS to be some workaround.
TO post #93 by kettle – I asked this question couple of day ago…
I think Grim should start a trend where we can figure out our strategy :)
BC Bob,
are you referring to Putnam Premier (PPT)?
“Orion Says:
November 30th, 2007 at 10:19 am
Grim,
On yesterdays’ post you said you’d be interested in Monmouth-Ocean counties MLS. What would it cost you to subscribe?”
I’m curious too.
Al #98,
I can never understand buiders building luxury condos near highways – I thought – who would want to buy thouse – but apparently people do not care.
Have you seen the new construction going up on the other side of Route 1 right opposite Menlo Park Mall? Not only is it on Route 1, which is a disaster zone, the location is right underneath power lines.
And yet, the units will all sell, because it is Edison. People are crazy.
I think BCBob is referring to Death by Powerpoint (.PPT file)
#104 sync: Is Edison that desireable that people will buy on the side of a high way,and at what price?
Lisoosh, Al,
If they are going to set the rules we might as well find a way to benefit from them. You start to get sick of seeing responsable individuals get punished while the the credit junkies get rewarded every step of the way.
I honestly think that there has to be a way to arrange our “strategic divorce” plan in such a way as to not constitute fraud. Sort of like the difference between tax evasion and tax avoidance!
99 bi
I’m not frustrated by the bailout proposal – it does nothing for the inventory that’s piled up other than make it impossible for anyone to get loans.
hence, the bailout will cause prices to plummet.
That makes me happy!
#97 –
“Also, I remember that “the CEO President” and his VEEP were oil guys, and they were going to do something about the high price of oil that Clinton was so ineffective in dealing with. ”
And don’t forget “Returning to the era of small government”.
All the while taking our money to pay for unjustifiable wars, aging boomers overpriced Viagra, bridges to nowhere, unlimited corporate welfare, useless “abstinence education, Christian jails and now speculators McMansions.
Given the choice I’d rather be paying to feed some crack wh*res kids. It just feels more honest somehow.
#98
Townhouses are being built in Essex Fells but they are right on Bloomfield Avenue. When I say right on, I mean the front steps are literally within 3 feet of the curb with no sidewalk. The asking price is around $800,000 – $900,000. I guess someone might want them because of the zip code but I can’t imagine the noise from the traffic and the exhaust fumes (there’s a traffic light right in front of the first units built). I would also be worried about someone crashing into the building. Forte’s Restaurant, up the road a little bit, had two drunk drivers crash into it within a few months time.
kettle [102],
Plunge protection team.
It was orchestrated perfectly, starting with the Abu Dhabi investment, lateral to Opec increasing production, lateral to Kohn, lateral to BB, lateral to bailouts. It also helps, at the same time, Goldman comes out with a bearish posture regarding gold. Don’t confuse impeccable timing with coordination.
OK, so perhaps the assumptions behind a bailout are as follows:
1. the MBS market is already destroyed. Given the level of fraud that happened in the last few years, there is zero trust left and most of the exotic loans are probably never coming back anyway.
2. the paper that is already out is close to worthless anyway. in effect, creating a “rate freeze” just makes the practical reality (that most borrowers can’t afford anything higher than teaser rates) the official reality.
3. the biggest problem in the financial sector right now is uncertainty. this will allow the banks, hedge funds, pension funds, etc to realize losses in one fell swoop and hopefully afterwards there will be sufficient transparency to return liquidity to the broader credit market
4. to the extent #3 will be too calamitous for the biggest players (i.e., money center banks that are too big to fail), the gubmint must step in to absorb the fallout. after all, no one wants turmoil in the mortgage market to morph into a depression style banking crisis. so probably the fed will accept essentially worthless mortgage paper as “collateral” as they have been doing already anyway.
5. San Demos high school football rules!
visiting FL in Dec and might have a day to research housing. Can anyone suggest new developments with good long term potential.
“I honestly think that there has to be a way to arrange our “strategic divorce” plan in such a way as to not constitute fraud.”
Well if lying about your income doesn’t constitute fraud, I’m not sure how divorcing your spouse and then “staying together for the kids” is any worse.
This freeze plan isn’t as bad as I feared it would be, but I still think it’s unfair to those of us who played by the rules. It got me fantasizing about ways responsible fixed-rate mortgage holders can wield their influence. For example, an organized payment delay or slowdown en masse.
“Have you seen the new construction going up on the other side of Route 1 right opposite Menlo Park Mall? Not only is it on Route 1, which is a disaster zone, the location is right underneath power lines.”
Yes – effing hideous –
Clotpoll Says:
November 30th, 2007 at 8:01 am
Al (23)- My understanding is that banks book negative amortization as profit, but I could be wrong…
clot: yes…the accounting is to book it as debit asset receivable / credit interest revenue
It will be very interesting to sit back and read about how this fiasco/scam actually came together and who the major players were, in about 10 years when the history books really start to cover it
3b #106,
Edison isn’t desirable to me. But there’s a demographic that loves the idea of living there. They buy up everything in sight and then come to work and brag about their home in Edison.
MJ,
I’ll be in Fl. from Tuesday thru Saturday.
108#, you are in denial, which is a typical symptom of a mental patient. Please explain to us how a proposal which will reduce monthly payment will cause price to plummet.
As I pointed out many times, the inventory has been piled up in some part of the country (or state). But if you are really going out to look at, it is hard to find a desirable house in desirable towns for desirable price.
Grim – posted a mega rant, then it disappeared. Moderation?
“They buy up everything in sight and then come to work and brag about their home in Edison.”
How do you keep from laughing?
njpatient Says:
November 30th, 2007 at 10:39 am
“Have you seen the new construction going up on the other side of Route 1 right opposite Menlo Park Mall? Not only is it on Route 1, which is a disaster zone, the location is right underneath power lines.”
patient: at least we don’t have to worry about idiot potential buyers reproducing themselves as such conditions cause sterility…
Sync,
would be referring to Indians? That is the trend i have seen anyway. Its not a knock on indians, i think its primarily that they want to be in or near a primarily indian community…
bi,
The plan doesn’t reduce the monthly payment, it may just keep it from increasing. If you read the posts at the top you would KNOW why it may cause prices to REDUCE sooner.
Why I even bother to reply…
I disagree that the bailout will cause price declines to accelerate. again, the exotic loans are already effectively gone, so that will be priced with or without the bailout. what the bailout does is reduce the number of people who must sell before a rate reset. fewer distress sales —> slower decline in prices.
HAS to be some workaround
I think you meant reacharound?
Chi FI
We are going to be bred out of existence. Its well documented that the smarter/more successful a person is the less they reproduce. basically we are being out bred by the stupid people! :(
njpatient #123,
I live in Pway, I’m in no position to laugh :p
127#, agreed. to me it is common sense which even people like me with limited IQ can understand.
syncmater Says:
Edison isn’t desirable to me. But there’s a demographic that loves the idea of living there.
Sync,
Are you the guy driving the Camry in the turban that backed into me the other day and drove away? LOL
By the way, Piscataway demographics = Edison demographics.
“bi Says:
November 30th, 2007 at 10:41 am
“108#, you are in denial, which is a typical symptom of a mental patient.”
pot/kettle/black
“Please explain to us how a proposal which will reduce monthly payment will cause price to plummet.”
I did. You can’t read (no surprise, since you also can’t write).
“As I pointed out many times, the inventory has been piled up in some part of the country (or state). But if you are really going out to look at, it is hard to find a desirable house in desirable towns for desirable price.”
You confuse “anecdote” with “data” – you’ve pointed out nothing. And those prices are left over from the days when exotic loans were available. A 30 year fixed with 20% down is going to be the only loan available, and even that only for folks who have a teflon FICO and more documentation than Congress.
Oh yeah – prices will plummet.
njpatient Says:
November 30th, 2007 at 10:39 am
“Have you seen the new construction going up on the other side of Route 1 right opposite Menlo Park Mall? Not only is it on Route 1, which is a disaster zone, the location is right underneath power lines.”
Yes – effing hideous –
It seems that for some folks, the easy access to the Parkway, Turnpike, Rt 1 and trains makes the air quality, traffic, etc. worth it. I find no appeal.
Grim,
Do you or the other RE profs here have any recollection of what happened to Shore housing during the last turndowns? Did it suffer more because of the ability of folks to forego buying vacation property or did it hold up better because of its proximity to the beach. And when I say Shore property, I mean east of Rt 71 or within a couple blocks of Ocean Ave, whichever is closer to the ocean. And n a related note, how did single family properties do relative to condos/townhomes. Thx in advance.
kettle #125,
Yeah. I’m a middlesex county Indian myself so no knocks intended.
Skeptic 127
I disagree that the bailout will cause price declines to accelerate. again, the exotic loans are already effectively gone, so that will be priced with or without the bailout. what the bailout does is reduce the number of people who must sell before a rate reset. fewer distress sales —> slower decline in prices.
Prices will decline because buyers will not be able to get loans unless the prices drop far enough for them to meet the 20% + prostate exam requirement from the banks. There will be some buyers who can meet this regardless or how the prices decline, most will not, at least until prices come down
“syncmater Says:
November 30th, 2007 at 10:47 am
njpatient #123,
I live in Pway, I’m in no position to laugh :p”
But the point is that you don’t go to work and show off about it.
135#, but it is not caused by this bail-out proposal itself?
> Prices will decline because buyers will not be able to get loans unless the prices drop far enough for them to meet the 20% + prostate exam requirement from the banks
Hey – every listing from P-way says: Desirable Piscataway!!!!!
BTW I live in P-way as well…
It seems that prices in P-way are the hardest hit so far out of all neighbouring towns.
njp #136,
True.
Rich in NNJ: If you get a chance could you let me know what has sold (closed) in River Edge/Oradell lately. I know its alot of work, but woould really appreciate it. Thanks.
“Prices will decline because buyers will not be able to get loans unless the prices drop far enough for them to meet the 20% + prostate exam requirement from the banks. There will be some buyers who can meet this regardless or how the prices decline, most will not, at least until prices come down”
Exactly – and you can make the argument that all exotic loans were already gone (although for much of purchases closed through October I think this is actually untrue) but it isn’t really relevant which event in finality causes only 30yr/20%/proctology loans to be available; as long as that is the case, sellers are utterly and completely f*cked.
“Plunge protection team.
It was orchestrated perfectly, starting with the Abu Dhabi investment, lateral to Opec increasing production, lateral to Kohn, lateral to BB, lateral to bailouts. It also helps, at the same time, Goldman comes out with a bearish posture regarding gold. Don’t confuse impeccable timing with coordination.”
You gotta keep those headlines positive for that holiday shopping season.
Come on people quit sitting on those wallets and use that plastic. Buy some sh*t you don’t need.
But wait – sellers do nto have to sell – they will just stay in their house till potential home-buyers will accumulate enought for downpayment to make their house at their price affordable, right…
Poor realtors and mortgage brokers – I hope they have saved their profits from boom years to last them for 5-6 years with no sales.
“bi Says:
November 30th, 2007 at 10:54 am
135#, but it is not caused by this bail-out proposal itself?”
We can argue and disagree about that, but the point is that as long as you are agreeing that all other loans are or will be shut off, then it doesn’t matter WHY this is the case, because you’re already acknowledging that the circumstances exists (or will exist) in which seller’s are f*cked.
Found an intersting website.
Do you know your town code.
http://www.e-codes.generalcode.com/globalsearch.asp
127#, Rich, i went over 3 time from top down but found no single solid argument which supports your thesis that the bail-out plan will cause price fall sooner. please elaborate it
> bi,
The plan doesn’t reduce the monthly payment, it may just keep it from increasing. If you read the posts at the top you would KNOW why it may cause prices to REDUCE sooner.
Why I even bother to reply…
#145
njpatient– so the exotic loans will be unavailable to current buyers (happening already anyway), but a bailout will reduce the amount of inventory, particularly distressed inventory. I’m not saying the bailout will prevent prices from declining, but I do think it will slow the decline
a slow decline would arguably be worse for RE in the long term. See Japan.
#148 skeptic: How about inventory going forward, we have X amount of inventory now, which I suspect will continue to grow after we get past the holidays.
and, btw, further to the question of whether exotic loans have still been available, my brother got one in 9/2007 despite being self-employed and sub-prime. So I’m obviously pretty skep-tical about claims that only 30yr/20%/proctology loans have been available.
3b– I personally think 2008 is going to be a bloodbath. High inventory already in the slowest part of the year for RE and not much is selling. ARM resets coming and layoffs = record inventory in spring 2008.
Speaking of PPT, from NY Post:
PPT’s Missing Minutes
http://www.nypost.com/seven/11292007/business/the_treasurys_missing_minutes_mystery_378734.htm?page=0
#151
njpatient– what rate is he paying?
“Come on people quit sitting on those wallets and use that plastic. Buy some sh*t you don’t need.”
Reminds me of the guy in the Yankee Stadium bleachers who used to yell at the souvenir vendors as they came through the stands: “GET YOUR CHEAP SH*T HERE! CLOSET STUFFERS HERE! BUY IT, USE IT ONCE, AND THROW IT AWAY! GET YOUR CHEAP SH*T HERE!!”
Al #139,
It seems that prices in P-way are the hardest hit so far out of all neighbouring towns.
Yeah. Pway isn’t a train town and grossly overbuilt the last few years. Birch Glen isn’t sold out yet (how long has it been?) and never mind Maple Woods. And that’s just the Possumtown section.
Yep 2008 = a good year to be a bartender or divorce lawyer ;)
154
I think it’s 6.5% or so, but he’ll refi into a 30 year fixed before it resets.
Al,
supply and demand. If all the sellers try to wait for their price, inventory will continue to increase while their is a smaller # of buyers… Buyers will win with lower prices.
152 skep
Not to mention that falling RE has finally become the dominant public perception, with the rosy picture from people like pretorius and bi being that there will be 10 years of stagnation while inflation eats away at their equity, which will result in people (too late) trying to get out while they can still make a little scratch. Inventory will balloon.
Re #144
“But wait – sellers do nto have to sell – they will just stay in their house till potential home-buyers will accumulate enought for downpayment to make their house at their price affordable, right…”
Some sellers don’t have to sell, like my personal favorite, the buyer-uppers who bought in the late 90s. But some sellers do have to sell. Sellers who die, relocate, get divorced, become disabled, lose their jobs.
More sellers have to sell than buyers have to buy. Renting when you want to buy sucks, but it will be done if needed. The only reason people felt like they had to buy since 2001 is because they thought they would be ‘priced out of the market forever.’
But I think there is going to be quite a long lag until we see major concessions out there by sellers, even the ones who are dead.
#158– interesting. well, if you look at the aggregate numbers, that type of lending is a trickle of what it was a year ago. it seems straightforward to me that it would have much less of an impact on pricing going forward, regardless of a bailout.
If LIBOR showed stress at 30 basis points what does 72 basis points show?
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/index/a/15051
It may be a waste of time, but I just emailed my representative my displeasure over this proposed subprime bailout. I suggest everyone here do the same. I’ve never heard of a worse idea.
Clot/KL – in your recent transactions, have buyers been able to use any loans other than 30fixed/20down/proctologyexam?
I had the impression that ARMs have still been available, 5% down could still work if the valuation was right, etc., even if somewhat less common and at less favorable rates.
Thoughts?
“if you look at the aggregate numbers, that type of lending is a trickle of what it was a year ago.”
I forgot to ask – do you have the aggregate numbers for me to look at?
#153 Orion Says:
November 30th, 2007 at 11:12 am
Speaking of PPT, from NY Post:
PPT’s Missing Minutes
Thanks for the link, i was not aware of the existence of the PPT. I vaguely new of the working group itself, but not much more. Maybe its just me, but that article is fairly scary. BC is indeed right that this fiasco is being closely managed and the bigdogs are ensuring that they profit handsomely!
anyone else finding posting to be a bit slow today?
#152 skeptic: I Agree, right now I am rtrying to figure out my bidding strategy.
With things still selling or appearing to be selling here and there, it gives other sellers a false sense of hope that perhaps if they hold on just a little longer, they can get their price.
anyone else finding posting to be a bit slow today?
Traffic is very high today, we’re getting hammered.
To Quote Cheney, “No Bailout”
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The White House on Friday said it was “premature” to discuss possible new steps to address the mortgage crisis and declined to comment on reports that officials are working on a deal with lenders to freeze interest rates on some loans.
http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSN3029727120071130
re: (164) worse ideas.
DebtVulture, there are allot of really bad ideas floating around right now on how to fix this mess.
One brain surgeon in Congress wants to allow people to remove money from the 401k and IRAs penalty free so they can make payments on their mortages.
We’ve got bigger problems…
From Bloomberg:
Florida Schools Struggle to Pay Teachers as Investments Frozen
School districts, counties and cities across Florida are scrambling to raise cash after being denied access to their deposits in a $15 billion state-run investment fund.
Florida’s State Board of Administration, manager of the Local Government Investment Pool, halted withdrawals yesterday at an emergency meeting after $12 billion was pulled out this month from participants. Governments from Orange County, home of Disney World, to Pompano Beach asked for their money back following disclosures that the fund held $1.5 billion of downgraded and defaulted debt.
“The unthinkable and the unimaginable have just happened here in Florida,” said Hal Wilson, chief financial officer of the Jefferson County school district, which kept its entire $2.7 million of cash in the fund. “What we just experienced here is a classic run-on-the bank meltdown.”
…
Just 30 miles (48 kilometers) east of the state capitol in Tallahassee, there was no money to pay the 220 teachers and other employees in Wilson’s Jefferson County school district today. Wilson said he trusted the State Board of Administration’s assurances that the money was safe even as other pool participants withdrew billions of dollars.
“To Quote Cheney, “No Bailout””
Now it’s a definite.
*OFF-TOPIC*
Speaking of Bloomberg, Drudge was running a story this morning of a ‘mystery breakfast’ Obama had with Bloomberg.
“What we just experienced here is a classic run-on-the bank meltdown.”
OUCH.
From HEHE’s link at 163
“A key point in this mess is that the Fed cannot provide capital (drop money out of helicopters), all it can do is provide liquidity. However, liquidity is not the problem here, solvency is.”
While not entirely accurate ( the FED could crank up the printing press) and end up dropping the value pf the dollar off a cliff, that comment is still a very good point
I also think that it is telling that for medium to large quantity drug purchases ( illicit drugs) the black market now generally requires that the transaction take place in euro’s…
here is a good overall summary of the explosion of unconventional lending that occurred in the last two years. in the most recent survey of lenders (Oct 2007–discussed in the article), the majority of lenders are tightening credit for both prime and subprime borrowers, and many are exiting subprime lending altogether:
http://www.dallasfed.org/research/eclett/2007/el0711.html
Now I’m torn. Trying to guage the odds of enough of a bloodbath to warrant buying next summer/fall or whether to move to a larger rental.
There are some great properties coming on to the rental market right now, bargain prices and most of them newly refurbished, granite counters, Pella windows all that stuff. Don’t want to move too much though.
But BC BOB I though a run on a bank wasnt possible anymore because of FDIC and of course the deity like prowess of the FED… Sarcasm off
lisoosh #179,
… newly refurbished, granite counters, Pella windows…
Why are people so enamored with granite counters? This is probably because I have no taste or style, but I don’t get it.
From the WSJ.
What rings bells is Roubini’s comment. I went to a securities industry conference on MBS last September. One of the panelists said something about how very few mortgages had been reset – that 1% number.
November 30, 2007, 9:06 am
Economists React: ‘It’s a Big Deal, Maybe’
Economists and others weigh in on the the Bush administration plan to work with banks to freeze temporarily interest rates on certain troubled subprime home loans.
#
It’s a big deal, maybe, but we’re holding judgment as to whether this staves off the economic repercussions of the problems already created. We don’t know how many are impacted. We don’t know how you unravel the homeowner from the long change to the mortgage owner. We don’t know how covenants come into play. Let’s say there’s room for skepticism, but the headline offers up a bit of flattening potential. –David Ader, RBS Greenwich Capital
#
So after wasting almost a year in supporting a case-by-case approach to loan modification and realizing that only a paltry 1% of such mortgages had been modified as lenders and servicers did not have either the skills or the human resources or the physical resources to modify one by one millions of loans after a dragged out negotiating process with the debtor, both the mortgage lenders and the US Treasury have now gotten religion and accepted an approach that they had vehemently opposed before: i.e. move from a case-by-case to an across-the-board approach to loan modification. Even Paulson finally got it that. –Nouriel Roubini, RGE Monitor
#
Interest rates are set to reset next year on $362 billion worth of adjustable-rate subprime mortgages, according to Banc of America Securities. An additional $85 billion in such mortgages is resetting during the current quarter. The estimates include loans packaged into securities and held in bank portfolios. Ms. Bair observed that borrowers she would target are typically already paying between 7%-9% at their starter rate! (2/28 mortgages are fixed for two years at the teaser, then adjust every year for the next 28 years.) Will the farewell to ARMs end the credit crisis? Not by itself, but it is certainly a move in the right direction. –Yardeni Research
#
Kudos to the Bush administration. Yes, you read that right — although I need to see more detail before giving a thumbs up. But as of this morning, it seems that Henry Paulson is being much more proactive on the housing mess than I expected. –Paul Krugman, New York Times
Compiled by Phil Izzo
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2007/11/30/economists-react-its-a-big-deal-maybe/
lisoosh,
We are in the same position. We are in a temp rental right now that runs out at the end of January. So the question is, do we rent for a year or just buy now?
I wrote about this yesterday, but we got rejected on practically a fixer-upper yesterday that we offered a 2004 comp offer, but it was 15% below their crazy price.
We are going to try a few more offers this month but we fully expect to get rejected. No matter what all this news says, the sellers just aren’t there yet. I don’t know what the lag is on this stuff, how long it takes for the prices to actually come down on a long scale, but it may not be happening yet.
But like you, moving into another rental is such a hassle.
It’s a tough call, but I expect after a few more rejected offers, we will be signing up for a rental. We might even take one of the houses that are currently up for rent and sale for a spin for a year.
From yesterday’s WSJ:
November 29, 2007, 12:02 pm
Economists React: ‘Devil in the Details’
Economists and others weigh in on the the October new-home sales numbers, which registered a modest increase due to major downward revisions to last month’s data.
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2007/11/29/economists-react-devil-in-the-details/
“However, liquidity is not the problem here, solvency is.”
hehe/kettle,
Bingo.
#183 Ann: it looks like a lot of sellers are in deep denial. We have posters here that are in deep denial, but this thing is still playing out.
So apart from the hassle of doing another rental, I cannot see the reason to buy right now.
I have to be out of my sweet rental deal by end of 08,and at that time I expect the sellers to have capitulated.
“Just watched Barbara Corcoran on The Today Show. She was talking about the “hot” places to buy. She actually promoted Reading Pa and one of the positives is it’s commuting proximity to NYC and Philly. I did the directions on google and it is 123 miles (2 hours and 23 minutes) from Reading to NYC. Is she on crack? I guess you could commute from Reading to Philly but it’s still 64 miles (1 hour and 12 minutes).”
She probably got that crack — or meth — IN Reading. Reading, PA is hardcore ghetto nowadays.
And yes, I know people who commute between Reading and Philly. I agree that a Reading-NYC daily commute would be crazy, though.
“Why are people so enamored with granite counters? This is probably because I have no taste or style, but I don’t get it.”
They are great for making bread and pastry, as the dough does not stick. They are also easy to clean. Other than that, I dunno. Corian is fine by me.
#161 “…even the ones who are dead.” LOL
Ann – Are you Clot’s sister??
Reading to NYC? Then why not Albany to NYC? At least there is a direct train.
NJpatient
Short answer to 162- yes. 5% and good credit is extremely doable. 10% w/good credit your a prince, of course 20% & good credit is King.The key now is good credit. Stated is still there however it is limited.
KL
NJ Patient,
3% FHA still widely available but does require the proctology.
KL
Ninja’s, option arm’s, neg amort, zero down, free call option, appraisals, rating agencies, slice/dice and export, repos, open the window, lower the floor, raise the ceiling, off balance sheet transactions, no transparency, accept mbs and other related assets at the window, we will increase our savings to support the dollar, record debt levels, citi-11%, mm’s-.96/1.00, create a federal agency to freeze resets, etc,etc…
Who is in charge of this asylum? Nurse Rached?
Shore guy #188, thanks for the informative response. Clearly, I don’t cook enough.
I just realized I’ve been misspelling my screen name all day.
Reuters is reporting that Countrywide is being sued by two NYC pension funds for loses “over $100 Mil”.
I’ll post the link when it shows up.
3b 186
Sellers are definitely still in deep, deep denial.
They could still sell if they really wanted to, and most would still come out fine, but they can’t get over the fact that they are not getting the number their neighbor got in 2005.
Even the ones who bought in 04 could get out with little damage if they would just get to it and drop those prices.
Right now, the sellers have to do the correction. I believe making reasonable offers are a waste of time. We are still going to try a few more this month until we have to make the big decision about renting.
Yes, we have to be ready to do the hassle of a rental. Oh well.
Not sure what constitutes undesirable anymore. Last time I checked Union, Cranford and numerous other towns tore down entire areas to build luxury “transit villages” on top of the Raritan Valley Line. My home can’t be in a busier location but then again I walk 30 seconds for an express bus to NYC or 7 minutes to the train. I can stumble home drunk without bothering the wife. There is a certain freedom based on that element alone. Don’t have to wait three years for a parking spot either. Train and road noise -hey you get used to it. Even if you live on a nice block chances are you will hear the freight horns. That is life in NNJ.
Serious question for folks with a marketing psychology background, as well as Clot/KL/JB/AgentLurkers.
Does a prospective buyer get a better deal, in the end, if the prospective buyer dresses up/wears designer clothes for any/all meetings with the real estate agent?
Oh, and make-up?
191 KL
“Short answer to 162- yes. 5% and good credit is extremely doable. 10% w/good credit your a prince, of course 20% & good credit is King.The key now is good credit. Stated is still there however it is limited.”
Thanks!
bi take note.
“I just realized I’ve been misspelling my screen name all day.”
I did the same a couple of weeks ago. Was glad grim didn’t boot me.
bi,
If you can’t read through the posts and get the gist of what others are… here, why would a bank now offer a ARM at a lower rate knowing that in the future the government may “ask” them to not adjust that rate in the future?
No lower rate entry options, less qualified buyers. If you have less buyers… I’ll let you figure the rest but I’m sure you’ll come up with your own hypothesis where two minus one equals two.
3b,
No problem, but I’m babysitting today so give me some time.
Rich
#197 Ann:Yes, we have to be ready to do the hassle of a rental. Oh well.
Short term pain, long term gain.
194 I do so too much but still see no need for putting in anything other than corian. The various stones require sealing and dont dare drop a pot on them. I cook with these fantastic All-Clad pots, which weigh a ton compared to the revereware etc many of us grew up with. And even with iron pots etc. I would be too worried about damage to the stone counters. I suspect they are more popular among those who dine out often and who do not cook seriously.
#203 Rich Thanks alot. I appreciate it.
From the Wall Street Examiner:
Totally clueless
Hank Paulson is at it again. This time, he’s trying to organize a major bailout for homeowners. Will he succeed? Who knows, but the plan lacks any common sense and reeks of desperation.
[snip]
In the last housing bust before the Great Depression, state legislatures passed moratoriums on foreclosures and many state courts refused to evict delinquent borrowers. I guess the rule of law is honored until it becomes socially disruptive.
Paulson and Bair can certainly make a solid economic argument that the investor and lender stands to lose the entire loan amount (or get a property they don’t want), and a partial loss through an interest rate extension is better. That assumes these interest rate resets will be the sole driver of foreclosures moving forward. Given that these policymakers couldn’t even see this obvious problem as of 6 months ago, I have a hard time believing they have the situation under control with this piecemeal approach. In fact, this problem is so large that it will probably wallop the entire Bush administration and the next one that follows them.
http://wallstreetexaminer.com/blogs/cutting/?p=97
Bystander – I actually find the sound of the train soothing, as long as my house doesn’t actually rattle when it goes by. The pfzzzzzzzzzzzt of the high tension power line is something else altogether, however.
Does anyone here remember imaginary numbers? If not, remember that the square of any number is positive. So, to get around this fact, mathematicians came up with inaginary numbers, which when squared give a negative number. It made certain operations convenient.
I get the sense that the recent mortgage lending was the equivalent, imaginary standards: they made things convenient.
– Re: # 196. Link below;
http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSWEN274920071130
“I suspect they are more popular among those who dine out often and who do not cook seriously.”
lol Shore – actually I love to cook (on my All Clad also (do they owe us for the plug?)) but I also really like to wipe the mess off the granite countertop after I throw away the paper plate that I ate my chinese delivery off of.
Florida Schools Struggle to Pay Teachers as Investments Frozen
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aHR5KklFq4X0&refer=home
#192 rhyming/Clot What is the attitude of people who are out there today, who are buying and closing on houses.
Do they feel they are now getting good deals? Pressure by spouse (husband or wife)?
Money is no object, so they do not care that prices are in a declining mode? Or are some just simply clueless until they try to get financing,and then find out they cannot, and its not 2005 any more.
Mets traded Milledge for Schneider and Church
“The Treasury Department is finalizing a plan with mortgage industry leaders that will hold interest payments steady for many subprime borrowers facing higher rates and possible foreclosure.”
“Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson discussed the plan at a meeting with top banking regulators and industry representatives on Thursday and is expected to announce details of the proposal as early as Wednesday, sources familiar with the meeting told Reuters.”
http://www.reuters.com/article/gc03/idUSN3042179920071130
chi – link?
That’s terrible – can’t believe after so much talk about that guy that the Mets would get such mediocre junk.
From Reuters:
After Wells Fargo, home equity has further to fall
If Wells Fargo & Co, regarded as a prudent mortgage lender, must take a $1.4 billion charge for home equity loans that comprise a mere sliver of its total loan book, how much might rivals write off?
The Wells Fargo write-down, largely covering $11.9 billion of home equity loans the bank considers most at risk, shows how the U.S. housing crisis has bled well beyond subprime mortgages to home loans once regarded as relatively safe.
…
Home equity loans are generally “second liens,” meaning that providers get paid after borrowers pay their primary lenders.
The loans let people, typically with good credit histories, borrow against their homes, often to fund home repairs or to pay off higher-cost credit card debt. A typical rate on a $30,000 home equity loan is 8.39 percent, compared with 13.42 percent on a typical credit card, according to Bankrate.com.
Some loans are home equity lines of credit, which let people borrow up to specified limits. But in recent years, closed-end “piggyback” loans that let home buyers with first mortgages finance up to 100 percent of the homes’ value gained popularity.
…
Easing credit conditions allowed home equity loan volume to triple in the decade ending 2005, when volume first topped $1 trillion, according to the Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies. Many lenders are now cutting back. Wells Fargo this week significantly curbed its home equity business conducted through brokers.
“It’s hard to gauge which lenders are most at risk, but pretty much any large lenders will have exposure because most made piggyback loans in the last three years,” said Guy Cecala, publisher of the newsletter Inside Mortgage Finance.
“Many were squirrelly deals to let borrowers work their way around underwriting requirements,” he said. “In a declining market, borrowers are realizing it was a bad idea to take out the second mortgages. They are also learning that as long as they keep paying on their first mortgages, they’ll keep their homes.”
How does this factor in the discussion of $100 oil.
It’s a scary read
http://www.slate.com/id/2178792
njpatient Says:
November 30th, 2007 at 1:10 pm
chi – link? That’s terrible – can’t believe after so much talk about that guy that the Mets would get such mediocre junk.
patient: no link yet….offered around the entire league….nobody wanted him
211 njpatient Says:
Do you use the copper core ones The day I tried one of those I stopped using anything else. WHat do you do to protect the counters?
CNBC is reporting Morgan is looking at another $5.7 bil write down in the 4th quarter.
Thanks, PGC. At least give a warning to have a hefty glass of scotch in hand before reading that.
#208 nj patient,
Three words – mass loaded vinyl. Apparently people are using it to dampen noise in busy areas. I was thinking about building a fence with it. It is relatively cheap. Two things I hate the most are honking horns at 5 AM and pimp mobiles with heavy bass.
“CNBC is reporting Morgan is looking at another $5.7 bil write down in the 4th quarter.”
That can’t be true! bi said there would be no more writedowns! bi, tell’m that can’t be true!!!
Morgan Stanley may face $5.7 bln Q4 writeoff-CNBC
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUKWEN275220071130?rpc=44
kl (47)-
“…your demented and intelligent the most lethal combination…”
Nope, Grim’s got the most lethal combo: demented, intelligent and ARMED.
You should know better than to compliment me. Nothing worse than egging on the unstable.
Never know when we might snap.
3B,
From the past two months:
Oradell – 12
85 BEVERLY RD $340,000
695 RIDGEWOOD AVE $450,000
685 CENTER ST $512,000
433 PROSPECT AVE $520,000
436 SUMMIT AVE $527,500
5 ACKERMAN AVE $545,000
233 PROSPECT AVE $630,000
665 SOLDIER HILL RD $645,000
434 GROVE ST $675,000
276 BEECHWOOD RD $715,000
307 COUNTRY CLUB DR $840,000
688 EAST DR $855,000
River Edge – 10
91 VALLEY RD $415,000
159 TENNEY AVE $439,000
287 JEFFERSON AVE $440,000
545 BOGERT RD $470,000
219 KENSINGTON RD $525,500
31 LAKEVIEW ST $600,00
149 KENSINGTON RD $605,000
208 CONCORD DR $620,00
“pimp mobiles with heavy bass”
Not a fan either. That bass is for the benefit of bystanders, of course, not the pimp in the mobile.
Signalling.
“Do you use the copper core ones The day I tried one of those I stopped using anything else.”
No – I’ll have to try those on the next turnover.
“WHat do you do to protect the counters?”
Rent.
SHore Guy 209,
Not to be to much of donkey, but imaginary number (i) have very real meaning in modeling of systems such as in engineering and finance. I readily admit though that to the average person they have no significance. wait that sounds like home loans also…. the average buyer over the last few years didnt really bother to understand what the were signing even if it had real significance.
chicagofinance Says:
November 30th, 2007 at 1:17 pm
njpatient Says:
November 30th, 2007 at 1:10 pm
chi – link? That’s terrible – can’t believe after so much talk about that guy that the Mets would get such mediocre junk.
patient: no link yet….offered around the entire league….nobody wanted him
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3135229
201#, how about 50%? that is what i usually do.
You need a mortgage?
I thought you were wealthy, how plebian…
patient (74)-
Citi has to go down to Khalid the Corner Loan Shark, because they’ve been denied at the window. Nobody there will take their slop.
After Citi gets rejected at the window, then they go looking for overnight/short-term help…you know, all those loans which are undermining the effective FFR on a daily basis now. After that market examines Citi, they decide having scabies might be nicer than lending Citi ANY amount of money- for even a day.
Into the breach comes Khalid, and voila! All is well. Kudlow brays his usual bleat, and life is good again.
If I were Abu Dhabi, I’d ask for C to deliver me the entire board, to be held hostage in Dubai, until such time as my fund is made whole again.
Now THAT would make things interesting. You could even do a reality show around the hostages.
kettle1,
re. imaginary numbers. I know, and I agree.
The thing that gets me is the number of people who seem not to know (or did not ANT to know) what they agreed to when they signed their names to loan documents.
One needs to plan for the worst and hope for the best.
Shore (75)-
We’re well past the point at which a telephone will help anything.
Call me when the caching of arms begins…
Quick! Paulson, freeze everything!
From MarketWatch:
Montana fund sees $247 mln of withdrawals
Florida halted withdrawals from a $15 billion local-government fund on Thursday after concerns over losses related to subprime mortgages prompted investors to pull roughly $10 billion out of the fund in recent weeks.
Other states are experiencing similar problems on a smaller scale.
The Montana Board of Investments, which manages the state’s money, has seen $247 million withdrawn by local governments in the past three days from a $2.5 billion money-market-like fund called the Short Term Investment Pool.
“We’ve had some local government withdrawals in the past few days because of reports about Florida’s problems,” Carroll South, executive director at the Montana Board of Investments, said in an interview on Thursday.
Rating agency Standard & Poor’s warned last month that it could downgrade a $4.8 billion investment pool run by King County, Wash., because of potential subprime exposures.
Roger Smith, former GM Chairman, buys it.
“Clotpoll Says:
November 30th, 2007 at 1:40 pm
Shore (75)-
We’re well past the point at which a telephone will help anything.”
You may be correct. Still, this has the appearance of a trial balloon. As such, if there is enough negative feedback, the plans could change. If the Veep was not blowing smoke up our ….s then it could in fact represent a walking back of the proposal. Still, I hold out little hope of the pols doing the right thing for the long term — not with the first primary 6 weeks away.
“Quick! Paulson, freeze everything!”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Er69b4HMl8
232#, i need mortgage for tax. i am stupid but at least i know here is where you can save money.
BC (111)-
Things are unfolding in an eerie and predictable fashion.
Got to get the rest of my dry powder down into the mine now…
NJ patient,
if you really want to be worried do a little searching on cobalt laced nukes.
grim (120)-
You should look up Mike Morgan and have him give you one of his “tours”.
“bi Says:
November 30th, 2007 at 1:32 pm
201#, how about 50%? that is what i usually do.”
In what way is that relevant to the topic at hand?
bi #240,
i need mortgage for tax. i am stupid but at least i know here is where you can save money.
I have a question, asking this because I do not know and you sound like you know more than I do.
Mortgage interest amount is a deduction, not a credit. Doesn’t that just mean you get a percentage of the interest you paid returned to you from the IRS? By doing this, how do you come out ahead as opposed to someone who pays no interest at all?
Thanks.
“if you really want to be worried do a little searching on cobalt laced nukes.”
I think maybe instead I’ll just hunker down with a nice bottle of something or other and watch Scrooged.
Clot 241
If you look at history, your comments are not so far fetched and current events make you wonder if you should have already stock piled. If the US were to really crash, then katrina was nothing but a match compared to Mt saint helens
(prediction deleted -grim)
Municipal Govs. are in trouble once payroll can’t be met!!!
Any business for that matter, this is dire!
bi
248#,
What?
patient (165)-
There are still lots of ARM programs out there. And, almost all loan products start at a minimum of 5% DP (of course, FHA is 3% DP).
However, the piggyback, teaser and option features that sorta acted in the past as embalming fluid on the “joint” those mortgages represent are gone.
“(prediction deleted -grim)”
That’s not fair. Why deny the rest of us a laugh?
“Citi has to go down to Khalid the Corner Loan Shark, because they’ve been denied at the window. Nobody there will take their slop.”
Prosaic and true, clot
“If I were Abu Dhabi, I’d ask for C to deliver me the entire board, to be held hostage in Dubai, until such time as my fund is made whole again.”
Now now – those poor bast@rds on the board only get about $200K/year for all those telephonic meetings. Not nearly enough to make them whole for that sort of risk!
Pgc,
That was a good read and pretty scary stuff.
I’d only disagree with the author’s escalation theory that Russia would get involved if Israel attacked Iran in response. Reality is Putin and his former KGBr’s may be telling Iran “we got your back” but the reality is when push comes to shove I doubt they’d ever defend them. There’s too much money to be made selling oil/natural gas to the West and China.
patient,
Scrooged is a great movie, one of my favorites!
242
Ahhh, memories of Leo Szilárd.
here you go just in case you change your mind
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salted_bomb
Pat (199)-
Other than maybe getting you groped, no.
it is a dynamic asset allocation.
with mortage rate of 5.5% and over 30% deduction, you only pay less than 4% interest. now if you can get higher return for the money you saved, you win.
if you rent, you have money at hand but you have to pay rent and less tax deduction (standard).
> Mortgage interest amount is a deduction, not a credit. Doesn’t that just mean you get a percentage of the interest you paid returned to you from the IRS? By doing this, how do you come out ahead as opposed to someone who pays no interest at all?
Regarding cobolt bombs:
http://www.fas.org/faspir/2002/v55n2/ny-co.htm
maybe rethink Alpine as a place to buy.
251 clot
Thanks
So it sounds like, although there’s been substantial pullback, it would remain accurate to say that there are a number of mortgage animals that are still available other than 30fixed/20down/proctology that could disappear overnight as a result of the wrong policy description.
This is the point that bi missed, when he helpfully offered up that he puts 50% down when he bis.
have you lost 50% of that 50% yet, bi?
“Mortgage interest amount is a deduction, not a credit. Doesn’t that just mean you get a percentage of the interest you paid returned to you from the IRS?”
sync [245],
Common sense does not exist with him/her.
252#, acctually it is unfair but it is grim’s blog any way. there were tons of predictions in last 2 days: from 30% to 50% to opposite direction.
I have long been perplexed by the general notion that it is good to pay mortgage interest because one gets a tax deduction for it. While I agree that if one needs a mortgage to finance a property, or can get a better return on investment leaving $ in the market than one is paying in mortgage interest (factoring in the tax benefit), then geting the deduction is better than not getting it; however, why would anyone want to pay a dollar in order to save 28, 30, 35, 40 cents? At best one loses 60 cents in the deal.
Shore,
Russia is purported to have built a number of cobalt bombs and hid them in strategic places around the world and would be used as a suicide weapon of last resort. there are CIA reports that suggest that there is more then rumor to it… fun fun!
3b (213)-
Mood of sellers:
“Get me out of here!!! Now!!!”
Mood of buyers:
“I will buy now, as long as I know a pad is built into the price to insulate me- at least a little- against the months to come.”
BTW, I haven’t run into a buyer in months who intends to occupy for any less than five years.
policy prescription, not description, that is (261)
252#, acctually it is unfair but it is grim’s blog any way. there were tons of predictions in last 2 days: from 30% to 50% to opposite direction.
Nice try, but I don’t have any problem with anyone else making a prediction, just not you.
Vodka (265)-
“Russia is purported to have built a number of cobalt bombs and hid them in strategic places around the world…”
Still, this beats a dollop of Polonium-210 in your sushi…doesn’t it?
http://edition.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/europe/11/24/uk.spypoisoned/index.html
Bi,
If my net mortgage rate is 0% (after Uncle Sam subsidizes me) and my house is depreciating, is renting or buying a better option?
“252#, acctually it is unfair but it is grim’s blog any way.”
bi,
Sometimes life s#cks.
Clotpoll,
the way i see it either way you die of radiation poisoning. I would end things quickly myself if i knew that i had received a lethal dose of radiation. Radiation sickness is one of the worst ways to go!
266,
CLot, are they beginning to see the need to price based on the New Reality?
“Scrooged is a great movie, one of my favorites!”
Mrs. Patient and I were trying to think of great Christmas movies for adults the other day and came up with:
Scrooged
Christmas Story
Christmas Carol (she’ll take Patrick Stewart, I’ll take George C. Scott).
It’s a Wonderful Life
White Christmas
Miracle on 34th Street
So – what are we missing?
268#, simply because my prediction is more accurate than anybody here?
275
$40 oil again?
Grim, it is not my prediction. It is CNN: Hope grows for a half-point cut
http://money.cnn.com/2007/11/30/news/economy/fed_outlook/index.htm?postversion=2007113013
Shore (273)-
Depends on how f-ed they are.
sync – Granite has been done to death. It has some useful properties but most people mismatch it with the wrong cabinets (or view it as a substitute for real renovation work). Then again, if someone is going to give me a brand new kitchen for free (considering the costs of the rentals), well, why not?
Ann – The properties I am interested in, modest houses on larger more rural lots, are already coming down in price. BUT, they are still over priced and less common, so some flexibility in towns is required. If I knew for sure which town I was moving to I would be less hesitant, but don’t want to move the kids around to much.
My current rental has the advantage of price (raises are controlled) and flexibility in that I can paint and change the carpets and stuff, but it is definitely time to move on, I could do with more room.
Not looking at train towns helps me with timeline in that those areas are already slow and owners appear to be less delusional. My gut says there will be a huge influx of inventory early in the year, a flurry of activity by people who think prices are low, some redaction as they can’t get mortgages and then cold hard reality starting to sink in at the end of summer. Course I could be wrong.
I don’t need to be at the bottom. But I would prefer to let the big drop happen before I buy so that I have the best choice possible, can be happy with my decision and can stay put through stagnation without kicking myself.
269 Still, this beats a dollop of Polonium-210 in your sushi…doesn’t it?
True, in sushi it sucks. but with some scallops, grlic and white wine…..
bi Says:
November 30th, 2007 at 2:04 pm
it is a dynamic asset allocation.
biploar Says:
you had too much of your dynamic assh0le allocation
Another one bites the dust
Morgan Stanley (nyse: MS – news – people ), which is getting set to announce fourth-quarter earnings that may be entirely wiped out by a $3.7 billion write-down of its mortgage securities holdings, culled its senior ranks late Thursday, resulting in the ouster of Co-President Zoe Cruz, whose stewardship of the firm’s fixed-income operations over the years earned her the nickname “Cruz missile.”
http://www.forbes.com/home/business/2007/11/29/cruz-morgan-stanley-biz-services-cx_lm_1129bizcruz.html
#274
don’t forget “Christmas Vacation”
http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2007/fsb/0711/gallery.luggage.fsb/index.html
Good for carrying cash to the closing.
You would think that a town’s leaders might know what real estate sells for in their town…
MLS# 2431371, (739 Coleman Pl on the northside of Westfield), was listed for sale at $588K for some time, it was recently reduced to $529K.
The owners are listed as “Town of Westfield”.
kettle1 Says:
November 30th, 2007 at 2:18 pm
Clotpoll, the way i see it either way you die of radiation poisoning. I would end things quickly myself if i knew that i had received a lethal dose of radiation. Radiation sickness is one of the worst ways to go!
vodka: if you gotta go, this is the way to do it….
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zHrGmYt7PDM
Regrding: The Freeze
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15837671
281#, truth hurts.
Clot:
If the mood of sellers is “Get me out of here now!” do they ever consider lowering their prices or are they saying, “Get me out of here now … for peak price.”
Lisoosh,
I have the same issues with schools, kids that are going to be starting school in two years. Also, I don’t need to buy at the bottom either. I just sold at townhouse at 04 prices and I am willing to buy at 04 prices. Too bad all the homes are priced at peak plus some.
Alright Everyone,
Sorry to keep you all hanging. I close on Tuesday. I was going to update everyone on the deal after the house went UC, but I could not risk anything and have it swept up from underneath me.
Just to recap. I purchased the home for 6% YoY growth from 1997 to 2007. 3% YoY from 2001 to 2007. And 30% less than list. It was a mega-lowball that sat on the table for a few months. House in a premier train town, actually only 1/4 mile to the station, in Northern Somerset, Lower Morris County.
bi at 275: “my prediction”
bi at 277: “not my prediction”
Whatever’s convenient.
281#, truth hurts.
Bwahahahahahaha!!!!
Does a prospective buyer get a better deal, in the end, if the prospective buyer dresses up/wears designer clothes for any/all meetings with the real estate agent?
Pat,
You know that’s very funny because I am often berated ( mildly ) by my broker because of my casual attire. So you’ll score no points by me, I prefer the comfortable/casual style of Realting – new word (: Why would I want to wear a dress and heels to encounter god know’s what? I have been in the worst homes, I sometimes want to throw out my shoes after a showing. I have locked my self in a yard and had to climb a fence w/ a client I meant moments before. I need to be prepared !
KL
http://investing.reuters.co.uk/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=media&storyID=nN30302094
“NEW YORK, Nov 30 (Reuters) – A group including South Korea’s SK Telecom Co Ltd (017670.KS: Quote, Profile, Research), Providence Equity Partners and former Sprint Nextel Corp (S.N: Quote, Profile, Research) Chairman Tim Donahue offered to invest $5 billion, “and potentially substantially more” in the No. 3 U.S. wireless service, according to a letter obtained by the New York Times. ”
Foreign investors don’t want any more paper claims, they want real assets now!
283
good call, skep
I guess I also forgot “Home Alone”, but I hate that kid.
sounds like good work, TJ
TJ…awesome. Wanna get me one in Morristown?
Anyway, Clot and KL, the reason I asked about appearance is that I often experience poor service, rudeness or am ignored (I think it’s because I tend toward flip flops, sweats and eu de Dry Sheet.)
I had to request to have a salesperson paged when I bought my car, and they were all just standing around. Their intern actually came and sold me the car! I guess I didn’t look like a hot prospect.
It would be a shame to shoot myself in the foot if I could negotiate more effectively and get a couple of grand off just by wearing Dior instead.
“I have locked my self in a yard and had to climb a fence w/ a client I meant moments before”
KL,
Did you first meet the client at the local tavern?
Slightly OT but ..
Ron Paul on track to outraise all GOP candidates in Fourth Quarter!
there may yet be hope politically!
TJ,
but but but … bi said no 30% off or something like that.
WTF with the trap door on the stock market?
Check this out:
http://www.businessweek.com/the_thread/hotproperty/archives/2005/11/the_hot_new_gam.html
kettle1 #299,
The system is rigged. It doesn’t matter.
Hillary will be your next President, like it or not.
“chicagofinance Says:
November 30th, 2007 at 3:19 pm
WTF with the trap door on the stock market?”
Everyone realized that they needed three quarters of the point rate cut; half a point just won’t get it done.
2464499
Could anyone tell me what the OLP was on this house in Scotch Plains? Many thanks.
TJ,
Congratulations! enjoy the new home!
From a historical and personal prospective, times like we are currently in is where fortunes are made and lost. Historically, periods of turmoil whether social or financial produce both the biggest winners and the biggest losers. 20-30 years from now it will be interesting to see who came out on which side of that divide.
30% Lowball!
Way to go TJ!
Sync,
Sadly i suspect you may be right, there are just to many monied interests that would be severely hurt by someone like Ron paul or Mike Gravel getting into office. I still hope other wise though. plan for the worst hope for the best!
RayC,
$579,900
Pat,
I am a flip flop,crocs,keds girl,& in the winter fur-lined liz cole clogs, however I obsessivly iron, my sweats have creases.
I change roles all day Mom, cleaning lady, errand runner, dog walker, taxi service, and then I change to go out in the evenings, comfort is a must.
I have Christmas at my home for family and friends last year I started a tradition that went over and will last. ” Pajama Christmas”
Everyone had to wear pajamas, you could come wearing them or change when you got here. My only protester was my aunt who I bought pajamas for and…. well the proof is in the pictures of her in her new jammies jamming out to guitar hero. DDR just has to be played in PJ’s!
KL
Ann (289)-
I can only speak from my own experience. I don’t take listings in which the seller isn’t able/willing to do what it takes to meet the market.
You’ll find that a lot of the wack listings you’re considering have a price that’s coming from the agent, not the seller. The agent pumps up the seller with the idea that more can be had.
And that’s a hard position to back down from, once you’ve used it to get the listing.
237 W Madison Ave, Dumont
Purchased: 10/28/2004
Purchase Price: $375,000
Listed twice previously starting at $439,900
MLS# 2747259
OLP/LP: $359,000
Active
WTF with the trap door on the stock market?
End of month window-dressing?
re: (309)
All the rich donors are putting their money on Hillary.
http://www.opensecrets.org/pres08/donordems.asp?filter=A&sortby=4
The 4th Quarter Reports are due at the end of January, too late for Iowa and some of the other states who are having their primaries early but just in time for NJ.
That is a great website by the way. They make it easy to check and see who your neighbor is voting for, do a quick search on Donor last name by Zip.
http://www.opensecrets.org/pres08/search_donor.asp
Did we discuss this one already? Sorry if it is an old news:
https://www.efanniemae.com/sf/guides/ssg/annltrs/pdf/2007/0716.pdf
In 2007, there have been unprecedented changes in the market, including declines in national home prices that are expected to continue through the end of 2008. Delinquency rates are rising across the country, and credit losses are increasing, primarily as a result of higher severity and home price declines.
The purpose of this Announcement is to establish new standard pricing requirements for certain: (1) whole loans purchased on or after March 1, 2008, or (2) loans delivered into MBS with issue dates on or after March 1, 2008.
Borrowers with credit scores less than 680 can expect to pay an additional .75% on their loan. Less than 620 it’s 2%. Additionally, higher loan to values > 70% get an additional .25% tacked on. This policy change is for so called “prime” borrowers.
Better save your downpayment and get good credit scores…
#312 Clot: You’ll find that a lot of the wack listings you’re considering have a price that’s coming from the agent, not the seller.
How does it benefit the agent would not a lower sale be better than no sale?
3b,
Your info is at 227
#310 Grim,
579? Thanks. I did a double take when I saw it, as it is now @479, and I knew it had been in the 5’s. I haven’t seen any final sales, but I have seen 100+k reductions in Scotch Plains (this one), Westfield (899 to 699, and Mountainside (769 to 599). My plan was to wait until next summer (been renting in NJ for 1 year) but buying is at least starting to tempt.
#275 bi: For the love of God man you are insane!! Please for all that is holy or not holy, please stop.
#266 Clot: Thank.
#317 Rich: Thank You
“I haven’t seen any final sales, but I have seen 100+k reductions in Scotch Plains (this one), Westfield (899 to 699, and Mountainside (769 to 599).”
RayC,
But we have been told that this area is immune to price declines?
bi Says:
November 30th, 2007 at 2:21 pm
268#, simply because my prediction is more accurate than anybody here?
Bi, you gotta pass me some of that stuff you’re smoking. I have a hookah lying around underutilized.
#279 Lisoosh:
The properties I am interested in, modest houses on larger more rural lots, are already coming down in price. BUT, they are still over priced and less common, so some flexibility in towns is required. If I knew for sure which town I was moving to I would be less hesitant, but don’t want to move the kids around to much.
I hope those don’t include Hunterdon County… :) I’m starting to aggressively look in HC for pretty much what you describe. I would like to buy one or two pieces of land (complete with crappy house…)
I’ve seen some pretty decent parcels but they are still priced as if the houses had granite counters, when in fact they have no running water… add to that the ones that sold the rights to preservation but still want top dollar, as if the preservation $$$ was “a cherry on top”….or lastly, my favorite, the ones that are advertising properties as “suitable for horses!” with nary a lick of fence, no cleared pasture, no horse barn nor any other amenities, but have priced the property as if it had world class horse facilities… (It’s 10K per acre for horse fencing, so without this stuff, these sellers REALLY need to be dragged back to reality….)
#227 Rich Thanks prices all moving downward as I suspected.
Some selling prices still a little shocking, talk about being clueless, but hey even in this environment there are still at least some people jumping into the flames.
They are going to be quite depressed as the next few months unfold.
322 BC Bob,
Sorry, I forgot, I will stop uttering such nonsense. Its like I’m part of that negative media trying to force the market through my words.
312 Clot, that makes sense.
Well, got the call from our lawyer, prior house is all sold, closing is done, money is being wired.
Even though we didn’t get top dollar, it still feels good to sell (as long as you don’t owe I guess). More sellers should try it.
Have a good weekend all.
re: 260
Miss Tessmacher’s mother lives in Hackensack…
New Jersey’s foreign-born population is 21.6 percent, according to the study by the Center for Immigration Studies, a Washington think tank that lobbies for lower immigration levels. And as growing numbers of U.S.-born New Jerseyans move away, the share of immigrants in the state is rapidly approaching the all-time high of 26 percent, reached in 1910.
In New Jersey and nationwide, the report found, the past seven years have been the historic pinnacle of immigration, with 1.5 million people arriving in the United States legally or illegally each year. New Jersey’s foreign-born population now stands at 1.87 million.
“Some people argue there’s been a crackdown on illegal immigration and legal immigration is harder,” said Steve Camarota, the center’s research director and author of the study. “The anecdotes may be true on their own, but they belie what we’ve seen in the data.”
While some other demographers disagreed with the report’s ominous tone, there was no quibbling with overall numbers.
“No nation has ever attempted to incorporate nearly 38 million newcomers into its society,” the report’s conclusion states, referring to the total number of foreign-born people living in the United States.
While New Jersey during the 1990s saw slower immigration than several other states, including New York, the pace has quickened, with 589,000 new foreign-born residents since 2000. New Jersey is now tied with New York in the percentage of its population that is foreign-born, behind only California (27.6 percent).
Children of immigrants, both legal and illegal, now comprise 31 percent of all school-age children in New Jersey.
The study puts the number of illegal immigrants living in the state at 429,000.
spam – Guess we are competing then :-).
Didn’t you say you already had a place?
On the upside, no interest in horses or horse properties. My thing is goats and orchards.
Hopefully, there will be more than one prop. available – either that or we are not in the same price range.
Confused:
““No nation has ever attempted to incorporate nearly 38 million newcomers into its society,” the report’s conclusion states, referring to the total number of foreign-born people living in the United States.”
Interesting how they use the figure 38 million, rather than a percentage population. It’s not clear whether immigration is higher now, or whether it was in the early 1900’s.
I never trust the disengenuous.
Moody’s seems to have a thing for releasing bad news on Friday…
From Reuters:
Moody’s cuts or may cut over $100 billion of SIV debt
Moody’s Investors Service on Friday said it cut or may cut its ratings for over $100 billion worth of securities issued by specialized funds known as structured investment vehicles.
Moody’s pointed to continued decline in the value of the investments made by structured investment vehicles, or SIVs, in downgrading or issuing warnings for about $116 billion of their debt.
“The situation has not yet stabilized and further rating actions could follow,” Moody’s said in a news release.
The ratings agency said it confirmed, downgraded or placed on review $130 billion of debt from SIVs, or roughly 42 percent of the SIV debt market.
SIVs are bank affiliates that raise cash by selling short-term debt and then buy longer-term and high-yielding securities, often tied to U.S. mortgages.
They have run into trouble this year as investors have shunned any debt linked to risky subprime mortgages. To make things worse, the value of SIVs’ investment portfolios have sunk.
Given the continued decline in SIV asset values, Moody’s said it is now expanding its review, which is not complete, to include the senior debt of some vehicles.
lisoosh #331,
The actual report says that the proportion of the population that is immigrant is the highest it’s been in 80 years.
In other words, it was higher 80 years ago. I wasn’t around back then, if there are any old timers on this blog, tell me – did people whine about it just as much back then?
The actual report can be viewed here – http://www.cis.org/articles/2007/back1007.pdf and the specific data I cited above is the second bullet point on page 1. Can’t miss it.
#330
great….
hopefully we are not in the same price range either.
we are looking there too.
Heck! we might all end up being neighbors!! :-)
sl
TJ…nice work…Somerset looks nice….Morris Co. maybe a shot at half-way sane taxes…..predict the board will break 1000 comments this weekend! Chatty bunch today.
It will be interesting to see the backlash if the economy really tanks….I predict some major revisions to NAFTA…which has managed to gut the US Mfg base even further….a major deportation effort….and a few bombing campaigns just for good measure…..
Ron Paul…..IMHO….the country’s only hope.
Essex #336,
You’ll know the bombing campaign is nigh when that damn jingle makes its way back on YouTube…
Bomb bomb bomb
bomb bomb iran
329 Confused
“the share of immigrants in the state is rapidly approaching the all-time high of 26 percent”
“The study puts the number of illegal immigrants living in the state at 429,000.”
So legal immigrants outnumber illegal immigrants by more than four to one in NJ.
“In other words, it was higher 80 years ago. I wasn’t around back then, if there are any old timers on this blog, tell me – did people whine about it just as much back then?”
lol
Chatty indeed! I see the discussion today covered the standard fare: nuclear bombs, shopping sprees, holiday movies….. how utterly delightful! Meanwhile, I understand that the drunken dim-wits are getting a stay of execution regarding their ARM resets not realizing that “Don” Bernanke and the “family” are simplying trying to bail out the crew through a new form of embezzlement.
I’m putting my snow tires on tomorrow…..cause I think we gonna get some.
njpatient #340,
Ok, there’s more. The same document I linked earlier, page 4, has a graphic that shows the percentage of immigrants in the US as a share of the entire population.
2007 – 12.6%
1900 – 13.6%
1910 – 14.7%
1920 – 13.2%
1930 – 11.6%
It’s down from there till 1970, that’s our immigrant share trough – at 4.7%. Upwards trend ever since.
I doubt if Chief Justice Brennan’s Court anticipated the failure of Congress to control illegal immigration when it ruled 5 to 4 against Texas in the early 80’s, that states were required to provide Public Education for illegal aliens. Ruling may not have been 5 to 4 if they understood that indigenous American citizens would ultimately, potentially, be responsible for educating the World’s children via their property taxes, as long as they crossed the border.
and now for something completely different:
Drunk LaRussa!
http://videos.stltoday.com/p/video?id=1578350
Once again, from the same document from the Center for Immigration Studies, page 6 – an explanation of why absolute numbers matter just as much as percentage share. In their opinion. Could be some truth to this.
“… absolute numbers also clearly matter. A large number of immigrants can create the critical mass necessary to foster linguistic and cultural isolation. Whether the immigrants in question represent 10 percent or 30 percent of a city or state’s population may not be so important; it’s the raw numbers that may be the most meaningful. And the current numbers are approaching triple what they were in 1910. Moreover, absent a change in policy, the number and immigrant-share of the population will continue to increase rapidly for the foreseeable future.”
Plyler v. Doe (1982) Transforms American Public Schools
by Tom Shuford
Plyler v. Doe is a little-known Supreme Court decision that is transforming schools and communities across the nation. The Court held, in a 5-to-4 vote, that children illegally in the United States have the same right to a free public education as American citizens.
The case originated in Texas in 1977. Lawyers for a group of children illegally in the state filed a class-action lawsuit seeking a free public education. Lawyers for Texas school districts argued that an influx of illegal students would ruin the public schools. A district court ruled in the plaintiffs’ favor. The ruling was upheld on appeal, first to the 5th circuit and then to the Supreme Court in 1982.
What are the practical effects of Plyler ? According to the Houston Chronicle :
Studies put Texas’ cost of educating undocumented students as high as $1.65 billion a year, an expense that easily outpaces other costs associated with illegal immigration, such as medical and criminal justice services . . .
There has always been a backlash against immigrants of all kinds. My mother-in-law’s mother would not let her wear a scarf on her head because it made her look like an immigrant. My mother thought pierced ears made a woman look like a “come-over” (whatever THAT is). My ancestors were known as “dirty Micks” and had to contend with “No Irish Need Apply” signs in the store windows. Some members of my in-law’s family were referred to as “dirty half-breeds” (part American Indian). It’s all claptrap. It doesn’t matter where you come from, what matters is what you do once you’re here. Although I do have a problem with people who are here illegally – wherever they come from.
3b (316)-
There you go again…applying logic. :)
Immigration has been talked here before….IMHO…if you a. refuse to learn the language….b. send all you money back to your country of origin….c. take advantage of the American services — you need to NOT be here.
Anybody notice what a dump Bergen County has turned into! Just moved out to Morris County (Mendham Twp) I grew up in Bergen and couldn’t wait to get out.
John,
Agreed with the Bergen County thing. It’s turning into a crowded sh*thole and does not resemble anything like when I was growing up. We used to shop in Paramus Park, Alexanders, Sterns and Garden State Plaza when it was a little outdoor thingy. Now, it’s packed with cars with NY plates and languages I think originated in the Qwerk galaxy.
Here’s a link to the video from The Today Show this morning. I watched it again and Barbara Corcoran actually says that Reading is an “easy” commute to NYC.
http://video.msn.com/video.aspx?mkt=en-US&brand=msnbc&vid=71e0105d-a691-4971-95cd-e3c75fc8035f
Talked to friend today, mortgage co owner.Only has 2 investors willing to give sub arms (credit repair loans)and he doesn’t expect to have them much longer.Been in business 17 years and says the worst is yet to come.I was to tacful to ask but I’m sure he is slow by tone.By the way 30 yr fixed 6%.Just thought I would get a feel from someone inside of mortgage business.
Gary Now we must be tolerent & learn to speak
Qwerk.Other wise we are racist right wing neocons.
By the way was down there today I feel the same.Remember big mural on Alexanders.
Wish i had posted this yesterday … but
about a year ago (or in the spring of 07), i repeatedly said that houses that were on the market at peak for 600k in Bergen County would be selling for 400k when i’m ready to buy.
It looks like that will definitely happen, based on just a few of grim’s examples on houses losing value. The bloodbath will continue, and the smart folks on the sideline will prosper … it will just happen a bit later, like maybe winter 08/09.
JB/KL
Can you give the details for GMLS Number: 2457324
It’s AS-IS, so I am thinking it is REO/Estate sale.
skep-tic #112
5. San Demos high school football rules!
Excellent!
mikeinwaiting,
Exactly! How dare any of us be sentimental! We must assimilate to everything else except what is dear to our hearts otherwise we’re inconsiderate and narrow-minded. Yes, that mural was a landmark. Oh, and don’t forget Bambergers!
They’ll Take Manhattan — For Less
No Longer Immune, Sales and Prices Slip;
Waiting for Bonus Time
From Today’s WSJ:
Even as the national housing market has been hit by slow sales and falling prices, Manhattan has continued to shine. But now its light may be dimming.
Fewer apartments are being sold — 858 went into contract in September, a 9.9% drop from a year ago and the lowest total in two years, according to brokerage Corcoran Group — and the inventory of unsold apartments is increasing. Prices are also leveling off. The median price of a Manhattan apartment fell 3.4% in the third quarter from the previous one, according to the research firm Radar Logic. The firm says properties are sitting on the market longer, too, an average of 123 days, up from 94 days at the peak of the market in 2005.
Developers used to seeing yet-to-be-built apartments get snapped up sight-unseen are increasingly offering incentives, from help with closing costs to museum memberships, to jump-start sales. “Buyers are more hesitant,” says Hall Willkie, president of brokerage Brown Harris Stevens.
Manhattan makes up a tiny fraction of U.S. home sales. Its housing market is closely watched, however, because of the city’s position at the center of the financial and media worlds. In recent months, the continuing strength of its real-estate market has drawn even more attention, and led many local real-estate professionals to contend that Manhattan is immune to the forces that have battered much of the rest of the country.
But few independent experts buy that argument. Christopher Mayer, a Columbia University professor and director of the school’s Paul Milstein Center for Real Estate, says the idea that Manhattan will continue to boom amid a nationwide housing bust is “wishful thinking.”
“I certainly don’t think Manhattan is recession-proof,” Prof. Mayer says. “History just says that’s a wrong argument.”
Bargains Available
Some buyers are already finding bargains. When hedge-fund executive Jerry Lavish and his wife, Stanka, started looking at apartments earlier this fall, they liked a three-bedroom co-op on East 72nd Street — but not its $1,775,000 price tag. Two weeks later, however, the sellers cut the price to $1,575,000, and the Lavishes jumped; they’re expecting to sign a contract today. Mr. Lavish, who says he did extensive online research before making an offer, believes the same property might have gone for $1.9 million a year ago. “We’re getting this apartment for probably 2004 pricing,” he says. (The downside: The Lavishes are listing their current apartment for $475,000, nearly 10% below their original asking price.)
willow (353)-
Barbara Corcoran is a skank ho. People like her make me think about quitting RE.
I’m sick and tired of defending my profession, when the truth is, we’re rife with chimps like her.
I stand corrected. You guys were right; I never thought prices would come down.
http://homes.realtor.com/search/listingdetail.aspx?ctid=95100&typ=7&sid=b1a0dbf184fd40769c5b0a0702175a20&lid=1086314095&lsn=1&srcnt=627#Detail
I’m listening to Corcoran’s moronic interview….consider READING! Easy…..baahahahaaa — holy crap….anyone ever stuck on that crappy two-lane blacktop……will laugh….Wow…has she ever made that trip….HILARIOUS!
Grim, Clotpoll or anyone:
This one has been for sale forever. Can you give me the history on it?
MLS ID# 2432225
njpatient Says:
November 30th, 2007 at 5:52 pm
and now for something completely different:
What, no fish slapping?
Gary A little paint some window treatments!
Clot That women is a joke or in 3-8 months will become one.
John (351)
ya ain’t kidding. Unfortunately we are with in-laws in Bergen trying to save til we can find the right prop.
Have never lived in *this* type of place. I used to stroller the kid around the neighborhood. People on the street walk within a foot of you and pretend you’re invisible.
I don’t want to bother naming the town, but I can tell you – even if we could afford to live here (we can’t) I’d poke myself in the eye with a kerosene-soaked flaming pencil before I’d buy here.
I had the (mis)fortune of attending the local “women’s contemporary club” for a fundraiser. There had to be a good million dollars’ worth of plastic surgery and couture in the room.
A new inductee was apologizing (yes I am serious) apologizing for still having a little bit of post pregnancy pudge in front 5 *yes FIVE* months after her baby.
I nearly vomited (I’m sure half the room already *had* vomited – after the dinner — for other reasons, of course.)
I never went back.
Been as of late nearly begging my RE to “get me the Frick out of Bergen County…”
no luck yet.
maybe soon.
hopefully before their annual “breakfast with santa”
so I don’t run out of PROZAC (!!!) by then…(j/k)
….need……out…….now…..puhleeeeeeze!……
sl
A general comment… the events unfolding are beyond anyone’s predictions – we all knew there would be a downturn, and it would likely be bad – but who’d have thought nonsence like freezing adjutables, packaged and lost RE funds would be part of it. It’s like someone said – how many ways can we screw ourselves, and then put salt on the wound. Instead of just letting this thing run itself down naturally, everything is a manipluation for political or profit driven reasons on someones agenda. It fun to watch (if you are not one who has taken a $ beating) but not good for anyone.
———————————————–
/// Clotpoll Says:
November 30th, 2007 at 7:28 am
“…Time to find myself as much of a property as I can afford on a 2/28 (yes, they still exist…for now), get it bought…and default…”
“…The gubmint, in its infinite desire to “help”, is now- as an unintended consequence- going to contract the menu of mortgage choices down to one (30 yr fixed, 20% down)
This will only end up making things worse…”///
Commanderbobnj sez:
As I have often said in past posts: “.EVERYTHING that the Government does to correct ONE problem–It creates at least TWO PROBLEMS IN IT’S PLACE !!!.”
———————————————
On another note, I had watched corzine (on NJ news network) earlier this evening talk before a group about his “pet” family leave act—-He admitted that ONLY the state of California has a similar intrusive (to private enterprise) law on the books….This POOR EXCUSE for a governor now wants to impose this additional burden to what is left to our commercial/industrial business community—–and don’t think that some of these well-paying businesses will stay in this state !———–
-GOD- help New Jersey with this Ba$tard in power !!
BOB
Are all in agreement then loan rate freeze will
not stop the price declines, just piss us off.I feel it will just take longer.Nothing depresses
prices faster than some empty REOs on the block.
On the flip side should dry up all but big DP high fico loans like a sponge.When spring gives way to summer we will have our answer.
Pat,lisoosh I know how you feel hate renting but stay the course ladies & we will all be rewarded.Someday people will be bloging on what a great deal we got!
Gary [359],
The Eagles in Roosevelt Stadium.
BC I might have been there.Just can’t remember
who I saw.Space cadet!
BC Bob,
Pink Flyod Set List June 16, 1973 –
Roosevelt Stadium – Jersey City, NJ
Obscured By Clouds/When You’re In
Set The Controls For The Heart Of The Sun
Careful With That Axe, Eugene
Echoes
Speak To Me
Breathe
On The Run
Time
The Great Gig In The Sky
Money
Us and Them
Any Colour You Like
Brain Damage
Eclipse
One Of These Days (Encore)
Grim:
My post is awaiting Moderation (#369)…Please check it out….
Thanx, BOB
lisoosh Says:
November 30th, 2007 at 4:57 pm
spam – Guess we are competing then :-).
Yikes…I guess so. Good thing is, I refuse to compete. I find too many people are too irrational when they get wound up over a property…
Didn’t you say you already had a place?
I do. I need more. :) I’d like 1 or 2 more properties locally. I have no riding ring at home and I’d like to build an indoor arena to start a small riding school for little kids. I also have some employees I’d like to “nail down” employment-wise by providing housing in a nice clean, respectable older home for a seriously reduced rate.
On the upside, no interest in horses or horse properties. My thing is goats and orchards.
Well, no orchards, but we do have a pet Goat. An Alpine Dairy goat named Geebles…she is a crazy goat that is addicted to ShopRite vanilla cookies and actually has her own fan club with a few human members… :)
Hopefully, there will be more than one prop. available – either that or we are not in the same price range.
I’m not looking for “livable” housing straight off… or, it could be a really small house, like 2 bedrooms, etc. I just want a bldg envelope grandfathered in (due to Highlands Act,) but I’m really looking for land with a mix of open & wooded.
Howdy neighbor ;)
http://homes.realtor.com/search/listingdetail.aspx?ctid=95100&typ=7&sid=b1a0dbf184fd40769c5b0a0702175a20&lid=1086314095&lsn=1&srcnt=627#Detail
5 rooms? Where? .1 acre? That is, what, like 20×20?
Willow Says:
November 30th, 2007 at 7:01 pm
Here’s a link to the video from The Today Show this morning. I watched it again and Barbara Corcoran actually says that Reading is an “easy” commute to NYC.
W: Corcoran used the word “ghetto”…..bad, bad form….
from a Minnesota newspaper
Record number of default loans threatens college’s future
By Tom Klein
Rainy River Community College (RRCC) has dropped its football program because players were defaulting on federal student loans at such an alarming rate that it jeopardized the college’s ability to provide those loans to any students in the future.
That, in turn, could threaten the survival of the college, where more than a third of the students depend on such loans to attend school.
“It would be devastating,” said RRCC Provost Wayne Merrell, who is hopeful the Department of Education will show leniency because of the college’s action.
Highest in nation
Almost one in three students at the International Falls school defaulted on their loans in 2005, according to a report by the U.S. Department of Education. Two-thirds of the students who defaulted on federal loans played football.
The college’s default rate of 31.1 percent was the highest in the nation. By comparison, the default rate for all Minnesota colleges is three percent.
Joe Sertich, president of the Northeast Minnesota Higher Education District, said a recommendation to cut the football program was made in November 2006 amid concerns over players’ poor academic performance and turnover.
The issue of loan defaults, however, wasn’t a factor.
“At that time, it wasn’t even on our radar screen,” said Merrell.
Official decided to retain the program due to public support voiced at a meeting to discuss the team’s fate.
“The community came out in strong numbers to keep it going,” said Sertich. “In hindsight, we probably should have ended the program, but it’s difficult to ignore the public’s wishes.”
Eliminating the program now is no guarantee that loans will be provided in the future. Under federal guidelines, if a school’s default rate hits 40 percent in any year or exceeds 24 percent for three straight years, the school is no longer eligible to provide the loans.
Because the loan repayment process isn’t triggered until months after students either graduate or quit school, the college doesn’t know yet if it will be considered ineligible to offer loans.
The outlook isn’t promising given the trend. The school’s student loan default rate was 11 percent in 2003 and 16 percent in 2004. In 2005, it nearly doubled to 31.1 percent.
“That’s something we didn’t expect,” said Sertich. “We were pretty shocked.”
Sertich speculated that some of the problem may be due to double-digit increases in tuition that have increased the number of students needing loans and the size of the loans.
Merrell concurred and said that students sometimes take out bigger loans than they should instead of using other funds, such as earnings from part-time jobs, to help pay for their education.
The 2005 numbers, the most recent data available, tracked repayment of loans made in 2003, a year after the football program was started. One hundred and thirty-five Rainy River students got federal loans in 2003. After two years, 42 defaulted on their payments. Of those, 28 played football.
Sertich said that by eliminating the football program, the college hopes to demonstrate that it is working to resolve the default issue. The college also is working to stay in better contact with students who leave the school to ensure that loan repayments are made.
“The bulk of the problem seems to have been with the football players,” he said. “So we’re hoping to convince the federal government to allow us to continue to provide aid through federal loans.”
Merrell said the college has taken other steps to ensure that loan repayments are made.
“As part of our mitigation plan, we’re contacting students with loans and reminding them that they have to be repaid,” he said.
College’s survival
The survival of the college may depend on its ability to provide federal loans. More than a third of the college’s 330 students rely on federal student loans to attend school. “For a lot of students, it’s a deal-or-no-deal situation,” said Sertich.
Merrell added that the loans typically go to low-income students, who need the greatest help in continuing their education.
Ironically, it was the school’s survival that led Rainy River to field a football team. The smallest of the state’s community colleges. Rainy River needed the money generated by the enrollment of football players.
In 2006, football players brought in almost $439,000 in grants, loans, work-study aid and scholarships — a sum equivalent to about ten percent of the school’s annual operating budget.
But the program has been fraught with controversy. The team has drawn scrutiny for relying almost exclusively on out-of-state players. Only one Minnesotan was on the team in 2006 and more than half the players were from Florida. This season, 48 of the 49 players were from out of state.
Coach Tim Myles said it’s been difficult to attract football players from within the state to the program because of the variety of other colleges and universities in Minnesota with football programs.
The poor academic performance of football players at RRCC also drew criticism. Although 70 percent of studens attending college need some remedial courses, Merrell said the percentage requiring remedial reading, math or writing among football players was in the high 80s.
Sertich said the college hopes to offset the losses of enrollment and revenue caused by the elimination of the football program.
The school has added a new industrial technology program and will be adding programs in building trades and welding certification next year. About 30 students enrolled in the industrial technology program and the college expects another 30 to 35 to enroll next year with the new course offerings.
Football players also accounted for a significant number of tenants in the college’s on-campus housing complex. Sertich said the college is exploring other possible uses for the housing complex and may consider closing off a portion of the dorm to reduce heating and maintenance costs.
Merrell, however, is hopeful it won’t come to that. He thinks demand for on-campus housing is strong enough to keep the building filled.
Football players, who arrived three weeks earlier than other students for practices, had first choice of apartments, he said, so other students who wanted to live on campus sometimes were unable to do so. He added that he’s considering designating the complex’s top floor for honor students, who want a quiet place to study.
Myles, who will stay on as minority services director and women’s basketball coach, understands the college’s decision to end the football program, but laments the loss of a sport that he thought was starting to turn the corner. The team was 6-3 this season and made its first state appearance this season, he noted.
Myles was also singled out for recognition this season when he was named the North Division Coach of the Year.
Meanwhile, Sertich said the college will do what it can to help players who came to Rainy River to play football.
“We’re going to assist any student who feels the need to transfer in light of this decision,” said Sertich. “For those who stay or come back, we’ll help them focus on academics and do what we can to make them successful.”
Kettle Now its student loans if it wasn’t so bad it would be funny.I’m sure the PPT can help them out to.
in case you missed this one yesterday:
BusinessWeek
Northeast Home Prices Remain Strong
Thursday November 29, 8:08 am ET
By Prashant Gopal
http://biz.yahoo.com/bizwk/071129/nov2007db20071128562540.html?.v=1&.pf=real-estate
Careful With That Axe, Eugene
Classic song.
http://homes.realtor.com/search/listingdetail.aspx?ctid=95100&typ=7&sid=b1a0dbf184fd40769c5b0a0702175a20&lid=1086314095&lsn=1&srcnt=627#Detail
5 rooms? Where? .1 acre? That is, what, like 20×20?
That must be in the flood section of wayne.
Preliminary NJMLS November Sold & Under Contract Data
(Like September & October, the worst in 13 years)
Year – Sold – Under Contact
1995 – 590 – 623
1996 – 645 – 661
1997 – 648 – 647
1998 – 650 – 636
1999 – 739 – 698
2000 – 703 – 735
2001 – 639 – 788
2002 – 691 – 744
2003 – 778 – 784
2004 – 851 – 861
2005 – 761 – 703
2006 – 613 – 719
2007 – 454 – 502
362#, gary, that house was designed by Mies van der Rohe: “less is more”
bi (379)
Thanks! I enjoyed the unbiased opinion in the last four paragraphs under “Too Soon to Tell”.
It was refreshing after reading the NARs spin.
351/2
Agree
And john – big fan of mendham – may join you
I remember reading different sources referencing Milken, the junk bond king. as the originator of the CDO, back in the 80’s.
The fact remains that there are the elite few that have set up the system to profit as it goes up, and profit as it goes down.
“kettle1 Says:
November 30th, 2007 at 10:39 am
It will be very interesting to sit back and read about how this fiasco/scam actually came together and who the major players were, in about 10 years when the history books really start to cover it”
365 Shore
“What, no fish slapping?”
You’re not a philistine. I approve.
I am the renter
And I ride and I ride
I ride through the city’s backsides
I see the stars come
Out of the sky
Yeah the bright and hollow sky
You know it looks
So good tonight
I am the renter
I stay under glass
I look through my
Window so bright
I see the stars
Come out tonight
I see the bright
And hollow sky
Over the city’s
Ripped backside
And everything looks good tonight
chorus
Singing la la la la
La-la-la-la
La la la la
La-la-la-la
La la la la
La-la-la-la
La la
http://youtube.com/watch?v=y4hPnZUMBwA&feature=related
Grim
Re 373, please don’t bother if it’s another immigration rant.
“I’d like to build an indoor arena to start a small riding school for little kids.”
Spam if this is for real, get my email from grim and I’ll supply some young riders.
while the sky is falling according to you all and we should all be hunkered down in a fallout shelter most people i know are entertaining multiple job offers across several industries as there is a shortage of quality talent for companies to compete. buddy of mine is a lawyer and just accepted a job with a hedgie making $225k base with a bonus potential of $400k. yeah things really suck out there.
Gary MLS# 2432225 94 Oldham rd olp 525,000
dom 119
Anti MLS# 2457324 660 brentwood drive in attorney-review. dom 32 olp 565,000
KL
#375 – Shore Guy
What is that? A meth lab?
382
Holy sh+t!!!!!
Wow, Richard! I wish I were you! Or your chump change lawyer buddy.
You stink of desperation. People can smell your stench from Prospect Street to North Chestnut.
North East is doing ok :
http://biz.yahoo.com/bizwk/071129/nov2007db20071128562540.html?.v=1&.pf=real-estate
“most people i know are entertaining multiple job offers”
Richard – why are most people you know unemployed?
njpatient LOL
Gosh, davey – thanks for parroting the NAR for us.
After you heel, roll over, sit up and beg, you can tell us what an easy commute it is from Reading, PA to NCAA.
Mike – its not the renting so much, its the deciding the next step. If I owned this place I would be facing the same quandry.
Spam – I’ve seen horse properties come up occasionally, real ones with rings, stables and all the rest, usually in the 600k range. Presumably if they come down that would suit too. Good luck with the school.
Once apon a time I would have been fine with a ramshackle fixer upper but now I have 2 kids, I would rather be a little further up the ladder. Not too “done” because I want to green it up and build on to suit, but definitely habitable and without major headaches.
My thing with goats is fairly recent, having become attached to some Nigerian Dwarfs. Other than that, and maybe a few guinea hens to control bugs, I’m not a livestock person. Hubby likes ATV’s. I want a barn for a woodshop and storage.
I do have a 6 year old who is horse mad though and begging for lessons, so if we do become neighbours you would surely see me around.
syncmaster Says:
” an explanation of why absolute numbers matter just as much as percentage share. In their opinion. Could be some truth to this.”
{“… absolute numbers also clearly matter. A large number of immigrants can create the critical mass necessary to foster linguistic and cultural isolation. Whether the immigrants in question represent 10 percent or 30 percent of a city or state’s population may not be so important; it’s the raw numbers that may be the most meaningful. ]
Sync – frankly that makes no sense at all. Of COURSE percentages are important – that is how you identify whether the raw number is significant. It’s just an attempt to foster a phobia by using a figure to fit a theory.
Ask yourself this – are 10 Indian employees a lot? Well, in a company of 15 employees, yes. In a company of 20,000, no.
As to attitudes to immigrants – well my fathers family fresh off the boat in the 1900’s were “dirty kikes”. Funnily enough it was German Jews who came up with the term as a put down to distinguish themselves from their poor Eastern European cousins. Took less than a generation for them to go from 12 in a single room in a Lower East Side tenement to slumlords in White Plains – and their slummy tenants were no doubt poorer, fresher immigrants. It’s the American Way.
When will the serious layoffs start on Wall St.? I am looking for buy a place in Hoboken for cheap.
There’s a slight difference between “kikes” and the current “immigrants” who are causing concern.
Not only does hospital use go up by generation so does crime, welfare dependency and illegitimacy. Education plateaus by third generation well below the national average.
Can we say that about the “kikes”?
Proper cost-benefit analysis demands accurate accounting of both benefits *and* costs.
We’re importing in staggering numbers what is appearing to be mostly a permanent underclass. Do we really want that?
“Barbara Corcoran is a skank ho.”
Clot you really are becoming my hero.
BLB Yes I think some do.This will help them get ride of middle class.Nation of haves & have nots.Cheap uneducated labor is good for businesses as taxes bury middle class to provide services.
Here is one from Clotsville
5 Blue Cliff Drive, Clinton
Purchased: 8/2/2006
Purchase Price: $819,900
MLS# 2323395
OLP: $885,000
LP: $755,000
DOM: 404
Sold: 11/29/2007
Sale Price: $650,000
Pre-commission loss: $170,000 (21%)
reech (393)-
There’s statistical evidence…and then, there’s pathetic personal anecdote.
In which category would you put your post #393.
BTW, my kids ran the Brigadoon 11 off the field…again. We spent the last 15 minutes of the game playing keep-away from them.
Spam Spam…do you have a fairly well-behaved pony? Doesn’t have to be a dead party pony, just not a panicky runner.
I don’t care if you have no insurance…we would NEVER sue.
Trying to find a place for a sensory-seeking kid age 6 to get repetitive circles in once or twice a week within 10 minutes of 95. Closest to us is Quakertown (too far).
A friend of mine also has an autistic daughter age 9 with little ability, but when she gets on a horse is weirdly normal.
Thanks.
• Home prices take steeper downturn
• MBA: Mortgage applications tumble
• New mortgage deals: ‘Offset’ loans
• Freddie Mac sets $25 price for stock sale
• Protesters demand help from Countrywide
• Foreclosures: Mayors see major hit to economy
• Foreclosure rescue: Saving a home
• Crime scene: foreclosure
• Home prices continue to fall
• AC in the winter? Brrrr-rilliant!
• Mortgage applications slide
List of articles from CNN money RE section.Doesn’t sound so good now does it.
Folks check out offset loan story interesting
way to finance.Might be a good option for some.
From the Record:
N.J. subprime woes worse than nation’s
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York issued a report Friday that sheds light on the condition of subprime mortgages in New Jersey, and it’s not a pretty picture.
Nine percent of more than 63,000 securitized adjustable rate subprime loans in the state were in foreclosure in August, according to the first-of-its kind report to track the condition of loans given to non-prime borrowers in New York and New Jersey.
Being in foreclosure means that lenders had initiated steps to repossess the property.
Nine percent of 63,000 loans represents about 5,670 homes in foreclosure.
The Fed estimates that securitized subprime loans include about 75 percent of all subprime loans. Securitized means bundled together and resold to investors as mortgage-backed securities.
Payments on only 67 percent of the loans — which totaled $16.5 billion in outstanding balances — were up-to-date.
“More than 30 percent in arrears is a striking number,” said Keith Gumbinger, vice president of HSH Associates in Pompton Plains, a publisher of financial information.
shore guy #377
But here’s the best part of the description on that “bungalow”:
Exterior features: Dirt
Florida panel refuses 0.90 NAV
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=abF6L4aqneR0&refer=home
A newly formed advisory panel composed of Florida school and local government officials with money frozen in a state-run investment pool said they won’t accept a return of less than 100 percent of their investment.
Members of the new panel, on a conference call late yesterday with officials from the agency that runs the fund, rejected a proposal to survey pool participants to determine whether they would accept as little as 90 cents on the dollar of their deposits in order to access their money in December
>>
Did the Florida pension investment screw up get coverage any local newspaper?
What is that rule about panicking? If there is going to be a panic, be sure you are the first to panic.
The first “chicken littles” out got their full 100%, everyone else will be lucky to get 90 cents on the dollar.
It wasn’t a pension fund. I believe it was a cash fund.
grim,
They should take the 90 cents and walk away. They are now behaving like delusional home owners in 2006.
CR posted up a fantastic little snippet about one of the school financial officers.
http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2007/11/florida-schools-hit-by-fund-freeze.html
The first excerpt reeks of hubris.
Hal Wilson smiles at the blue numbers on his desktop screen. His money is yielding 5.77 percent. For the chief financial officer of Florida’s Jefferson County school board, that means the $2.7 million of taxpayer funds he’s placed in the state’s Local Government Investment Pool is earning more on this October day than it would get in a money market fund.
Unfortunately, life isn’t so good for Hal anymore…
“The unthinkable and the unimaginable have just happened here in Florida,” said Hal Wilson, chief financial officer of the Jefferson County school district, located 30 miles (48 kilometers) east of the state capital Tallahassee. “What we just experienced here is a classic run-on-the bank meltdown.”
402 “My thing with goats is fairly recent, having become attached to some Nigerian Dwarfs.”
This could be a GREAT first sentence in a creative writing contest. Especially after one-too-many drinks.
Still looking #368,
Great post. It must be nice to know that you wouldn’t want to live in the fancy towns even if they were affordable.
I’m the same way. I’m not going to stretch to be in a fancy Bergen or Westchester or Nassau town.
Where are you looking?
I’ll be content with a place that features:
– Growing upper middle class, measured by rising homeownership rate and rising % of college graduates
– Public schools that are at least average because I know that clever kids can succeed in that environment
– Walking distance to public transit going to midtown Manhattan, making a quick, one-seat ride possible
– Interesting mix of homes because I don’t want to live in a cookie-cutter neighborhood
– Reasonable real estate taxes (
Hey grim my post was cut off!
– Reasonable real estate taxes (
wtf
Reasonable real estate taxes meaning less than 1.5% of home value per year.
2 places that feel like a good match are Weehawken and Crestwood neighborhood in Yonkers.
Way off topic:
i believe there are quite a bit of finance people here so i’m hoping to get a suggestion on what Series 7 study material is recommended. as i’m drifting (forced) away from the mortgage industry i’m looking to get more into finance.
unless i take a very junior position i’ll need my 7 and 63 before considerations are made. i have a buddy that will sponsor me for the exam but it’s been years since i have taken a test like this so i’m hoping to get a reference as to the best way to move forward.
thanks in advance.
Clot #409,
There’s statistical evidence…and then, there’s pathetic personal anecdote.
Amen, brother.
I would suggest going for the CFA. Take and pass level 1. You’ll learn more about finance and have more credibility in the job market, compared to doing the series 7 and 63.
Or do all of them.
BLB – your post is “my ancestors are better than them/their ancestors” rhetoric with no stats to back them up.
The main feature of the United States is an aging population that has failed to replace itself adequately and which has done a poor job educating its descendants to compete internationally.
Without working and middle classes producing a decent amount of kids (tomorrows payers into Social Security to pay for your retirement), and without importing highly educated and multilingual individuals to assist with innovation – this country will revert to a swamp filled with geriatric geezers. Take a look at the social issues of Europe where they import cheap labor but don’t offer them a future. Ostracized minorities burning cars in the streets. Or look at some midwestern towns who have resisted industries which might bring in “outsiders” (ie immigrants) as labor – many of them have an average age of 50+; full of old guys playing dominos and praying that the world won’t change until they die.
Immigration doesn’t mean someone steps off the plane and suddenly becomes your version of “American” within a couple of weeks. Assimilation takes generations, and the people who assimilate also change the culture they come in contact with. Plenty of things we associate as American didn’t exist here 100 years ago, they came with immigrants.
Outside of the issue of illegality – this country NEEDS immigrants and they bring with them change.
From Business Week:
Foreclosures: Not So Fast
Court rulings may make it tougher for holders of mortgage-backed securities to take back the keys
[snip]
There also could be a more troubling consequence for investors, says Kathleen C. Engel, a professor at Cleveland-Marshall College of Law. Players in the secondary market for mortgages rely on an obscure but critical legal theory–known as the “holder in due course” doctrine–to insulate themselves from problems with the underlying loans.
Under the doctrine, a homeowner who believes that a lender deceived him about the terms of a loan can’t press such claims against the purchaser of a mortgage, such as a mortgage-backed securities trust. The holder-in-due-course doctrine protects pension funds and the like from having to worry about any misbehavior by home lenders–and thereby greases the wheels for the whole mortgage-securities market. But it’s a different story if, as appears to be common practice, the trust waits to complete paperwork transferring a loan until after it goes into default. In that case, the holder-in-due-course protection evaporates, and anybody who tries to foreclose could face defenses from the borrower that he or she was lied to when seeking a loan.
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/07_50/b4062028776327.htm?campaign_id=mag_Nov30&link_position=link20
89 Hillman Ave, Glen Rock
Purchased: 2/17/2006
Purchase Price: $530,000
MLS# 2626398
OLP: $599,900
LP: $489,000
DOM: 298
Withdrawn
MLS# 2733312
OLP: $454,900
LP: $389,900
DOM: 109
Active
#425,
i could be wrong but going the CFA route may be biting off more then i can chew. my thought is to take the 7/63, do the internal wholesale thing, segway to external and see where it goes from there.
rhymingrealtor [394]
Thank You!
“For the Northeast, the worst is already past and the question is how fast the recovery will be,” Lawrence Yun said. “Will it be a strong recovery or weak recovery?”
http://biz.yahoo.com/bizwk/071129/nov2007db20071128562540.html?.v=1&.pf=real-estate
Unfortunately, the only way the government can avoid a horrendous recession is to implement the freeze program, imho.
I’m really f*ckn p*ssed about it, but what is the gov’t to do? Allow a calamitous U.S. economic recession? Allow global economic destabalization? Allow other countries to view us chicken sh*t by not taking the necessary drastic measures? Allow our currency to equal ramen? Not prudent.
The freeze plan is very unfair, as it moves towards a blanket bail-out, which includes all of the greedy banks, investors, speculators, etc. A more fair plan would include only first-time buyers with families. No refi, no heloc, no commercial, no investment properties. I realize this would create calls of financial discrimination. This problem, originated in the U.S., has turned global. The theater is wide.
I’ve calmed down a bit since yesterday. The remedy? I went out and bought the most beautiful Christmas tree.
You can’t always get what you want
But if you try, sometimes,
You just might find,
You get what you need…
Go buy a tree.
lisoosh Yes we need skilled labor & cheap labor
to.But the uncontroled immigration at boarders
is hurting us.Legality is an issue not an aside.
Change is not always for the better.
Our gov function is to act for the benefit of
majority.If they are white , of western european
background & ageing thats what it will do.Right,wrong,smart or not this is how it was designed to work.Any group in power would be fools to give it away, this is human nature.In 30 yrs you will not have to worry as most boomers will be dead.
This FLA. fund run is a harbinger of things to
come.Municipal,pension & any other large type of funds are all in play.AAA rated investments are now junk.The boys at fed & treasury know this hence newest plan to freeze rates.Since when did the gov do something that got the job done as planned.I’m not optimistic on it being
workable.Big bailout just around the corner they have no choice.Oh not to worry US gov will go deeper in debt and inflat their way out of it.These guys really want to sink us.If they were looking at the long term good of country
they would not go this route.But as you know it is an election year so they will pull out all the stops.
shore — You’re right. On it’s own what a bizarre sentence, what mental images, my eyes, my eyes!!!
Secondary Market Says:
December 1st, 2007 at 10:26 am
#425, i could be wrong but going the CFA route may be biting off more then i can chew. my thought is to take the 7/63, do the internal wholesale thing, segway to external and see where it goes from there.
sm: Dearborn is solid enough…(I think they were bought out by Kaplan). Recognize that 7/63 is not a requirement. I have neither……
http://www.dearborn.com …….sends you to Kaplan
The simple solution to the various economic problems is a Federal Surcharge on all Legal Non Recent Immigrant (less than 10 yrs) Citizens. The $8B a day deferred accrual on IRAQ, Social Security & Medicare & Medicaid, State Employee Pension & Benefits, Free Homes for those who can’t afford them, etc, can all be funded with a Surcharge that attaches 100% of all Legal Non Current Immigrant (less than 10 yrs) Citizens Assets greater than $25K. The Surcharge would include Stocks, Bonds, IRA/401K, Savings & Checking Accounts, Jewelry, etc. Legal Non Immigrant Citizen Families would be allowed to exclude Primary Residence and one Car from the Surcharge.
Nov. 13 (Bloomberg) — Congressional Democrats said the cost of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan may total $3.5 trillion if a U.S. military presence is required through 2017.
The estimate, which includes military expenses plus predicted costs for veterans’ care, energy and interest on debt, is $1.1 trillion higher than the Congressional Budget Office forecast last month.
Democratic attempts to force President George W. Bush to end the war by attaching troop withdrawal requirements to military funding legislation have been blocked in the Senate or vetoed by Bush.
“If President Bush gets his way and we do not significantly draw down our troops, the total costs of this war will reach astronomical heights,” said Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, a Nevada Democrat.
House Democrats are drafting a new withdrawal measure that they may take up as early as this week as part of legislation to spend $50 billion on temporary war funding for the rest of the year.
White House spokeswoman Dana Perino called the Democratic estimate “an attempt to muddy the waters on what have been some positive developments being reported out of Iraq.”
Bush has requested about $190 billion to fund the wars this fiscal year, which ends Sept. 30, 2008, and would bring total direct spending on the conflicts to $804 billion.
As of Nov. 13, 4,313 U.S. troops had died in the two wars and 30,205 had been wounded.
Unacceptable
“The cost to our country in lives lost and dollars spent is tragically unacceptable,” New York Democrat Chuck Schumer said.
On top of the $1.3 trillion allocated for direct spending on the war, the Democratic report includes $220 billion in interest costs, $270 billion from higher oil prices and $870 billion in lost economic activity because of higher government spending.
The report assumes that U.S. troop levels in Iraq and Afghanistan fall from about 210,000 this year to 75,000 troops by 2013 and remains at that level until 2017.
The $2.4 trillion cost estimated by the CBO, assumed the same troop levels.
Peter Orszag, head of the CBO, told the House Budget Committee last month that it would cost $1.055 trillion to keep 75,000 troops in the two theaters through 2017. If the conflicts continue to be funded with borrowed money, interest payments would total $705 billion.
Those costs, when combined with the $604 billion Congress has already appropriated for the conflicts, would bring total expenditures to $2.364 trillion, according to CBO estimates. By comparison, Bush proposed a federal budget this fiscal year of $2.9 trillion.
May be True as we are still in Korea over 50 years.
Mike –
“Our gov function is to act for the benefit of
majority.If they are white , of western european
background & ageing thats what it will do.Right,wrong,smart or not this is how it was designed to work.”
What you are describing is the sad side effect of abuse of democracy and the weakness of human nature (I got mine, f**k anyone else).
Governments function is to act for the benefit of the NATION, not the imagined self interests of the powerful, or the most vocal group.
What you advocate is exactly what happened when congress caved and passed the Medicare Drug plan – Big pharm was happy because it got to sell drugs at inflated prices, the elderly were happy because they got their medication subsidized. The fact that it will bancrupt the country and coming generations is irrelevant, the bill was passed due to expediency.
Of course this is in part due to the lethargy of younger generations, so serve us right – but it doesn’t make it “right”.
Confused Will not float who was the biggest voting block again.It will just get passed down to future generations.Didn’t say I like it just called it like it is.
Lisoosh
Kudo’s for your post 326.
KL
TJ, congratulations on your 30% lowball. I’m working on a 20% lowball in Morris County but it will require some patience. Did the seller counter your inital offer, reject it, or just not respond? How long did it take for them to come around and did they try to pull you up on price?
Grim, Clot, Rich – Could one of you provide address for 2464898 in Mendham Twp? Thanks!
lisoosh Didn’t advocate,but you make my point.
Selfinterest trumps all.So now we are back at who is the largest voting block and they vote in greater %.That said my post is on the mark.
Right or wrong its how it works.Should the minority rule because we know better or should gov do what it wants regardless of voters some
times stupid views.That is a very slippery slope.Marx,Lenin anyone.
Secondary Market Says:
December 1st, 2007 at 10:26 am
#425, i could be wrong but going the CFA route may be biting off more then i can chew. my thought is to take the 7/63, do the internal wholesale thing, segway to external and see where it goes from there.
Maybe it benefits some people to use a cramschool to get through a 7 but I can’t see it myself. If you have slight financial awareness, i.e. you spend more time reading the business pages than sports or fashion, and an ability to do basic arithmetic, you can pass the 7. (If neither of those are true, WTF do you want to do with a 7?)
The 63 is a different animal IMO. It is full of obscure regulatory shite and requires you to be able to parrot what some long dead legislator thought would make a good rule 70 some odd years ago. Some of the questions require knowing whether a rule is from 72 years ago or 74 years ago. (You may think I’m kidding. It would be a mistake.) Good luck remembering such worthless nonsense if you haven’t spent 4 hours learning mindless mnemonics from a KlappedoutKaplanKrammer.
443 …..is 20-30% lowball exceptable for most part???
thank you!!!
njpatient Says: [392]
Spam if this is for real, get my email from grim and I’ll supply some young riders.
Pat Says: [410]
Spam Spam…do you have a fairly well-behaved pony? Doesn’t have to be a dead party pony, just not a panicky runner.
I don’t care if you have no insurance…we would NEVER sue.
Trying to find a place for a sensory-seeking kid age 6 to get repetitive circles in once or twice a week within 10 minutes of 95. Closest to us is Quakertown (too far).
A friend of mine also has an autistic daughter age 9 with little ability, but when she gets on a horse is weirdly normal.
I don’t have a school yet! I want to start a school for the old fashioned way of learning to ride…”being immersed in it all day long…” I want to give kids who are in the suburbs a chance to have memories of riding horses that goes beyond
just 45 minutes in the ring once a week…
Basically, I want a couple of small groups of kids to come every weekend to stay for 1/2 the day and learn to ride, muck, wash horses, groom them, play tag in the wooded areas, eat a sandwich lunch under the big trees while trading tall tales, ride the ponies bareback to the river to swim, etc…
I’m classically trained in dressage and can jump, but I have a lot to learn as horses is a “lifetime of learning” thing…. my GOAL is not to impart a strict structured set of lesson plans to each child, but rather to provide kids (up to about 14 yrs
old) the RELAXED ENVIRONMENT to make fond MEMORIES they will always have of days spent with horses. Whether they become lawyers, real estate sales reps :) or the next Olympic Jumper, I don’t care…
I’m very safe and am an adult member of the USPC (US Pony Club) which has a seriously long set of manuals on correct conduct and care with regards to horses…I even make kids wear helmets when leading a horse on a lead rope. But, for the day to day, I’d really hire older (late teens/early 20’s) US Pony Club members to be “team leaders”…
Oh, as for insurance….it’s really for the school. And it’s cheap. Anyone would be stupid not to have it. NJ has an “equine law” that removes most liability from operators of barns, and with insurance coverage, you can operate a public facility without going insane from worry… :)
Pat, if you give me the county you’re in, I can send you to a local pony club chapter. You don’t need to own a pony, a lot of members have ones you can lease (sometimes free, as they just want the pony to keep getting exercise! and usually month to month or annually) that other kids have outgrown and the USPC has about the best system in the way of learning…
There are a lot of therapeutic riding centers, as well, (Tewksbury has one as well as one in Pittstown (Clinton)) and several colleges now offer degrees in therapeutic riding, because being on a horse can help so many different disabilities…
OK…I gotta get back to work! I gotta pay for all this! :)
Secondary [423],
I agree with punch, self study is the way to go. That said, many individuals prefer to go to a class. When I worked for a b/d, those that went to a class recommended,
http://www.stcusa.com/.
Punch is right regarding the 63, blue sky laws. It’s strictly memorizing a bunch of useless crap. Similar to being on this site and forced to memorize all bi’s posts. Is the penalty for X violation 6 mos, 1 year or a 2 year period. Is the penalty for Y violation, $500, $1,000, $5,000 I’d rather get my wisdom tooth pulled, which I did last week.
By the way, it’s illegal for a b/d to hold your license, if you are not employed there. If they get audited by the Nasdaq, and it is discovered, they will be fined. Unfortunately, Nasdaq auditors need to justify their existence.
Good Luck.
Northeast Home Prices Remain Strong…New housing data released by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) suggest the Northeast is weathering the real estate slump better than the rest of the country..http://biz.yahoo.com/bizwk/071129/nov2007db20071128562540.html?.v=1&.pf=real-estate
grim (408)-
Know that house well!
JB,
Did you ever go to that open house in Belmar, 13th Ave? There is another open house today.
http://homes.realtor.com/search/listingdetail.aspx?ctid=3094&mnp=34&mxp=33&typ=5&sid=108ba73f602d482598d228224c9427db&lid=1082595811&lsn=6&srcnt=15#Detail
mojo,
2 Wright Lane
I need to be in whatever business you are in..
When should we expect the class action law suite for discrimination against those who pay their mortgages vs. the sheep who will be bailed out for committing mortgage fraud and refusing to honor their contractual obligations?
If I don’t see it soon, I’m going to stop paying my mortgage and demand a fixed rate 100 bps lower than my current rate or else I’m suing. Bias and discrimination are basis for retribution.
393#, Richeard, you are kidding unless your buddy is a transaction attorney specializing foreclosure.
387#, john, should i send you a congratulation or condolence letter?
> njpatient Says:
November 30th, 2007 at 11:21 pm
351/2
Agree
And john – big fan of mendham – may join you
423#, 448#, SM, you can do it by self study. in addition to STC’s study material. I used to use test prep book by New York Institute of Finance.
Gary You almost make me wish I had a mortgage.
Is every one off the hook just miss a couple of payments there you go.But seriously if you had one & you could pay why would you.I still don’t understand how they expect this to work.Just take every loan out there & hold to teaser for 2 yrs & all arms to fix rate below market.So if every one with a reset plays it smart they do not pay & get bailed out.Their are to many to check your ability to pay out.So if 30% of loans would have defaulted now 60 to 70 % do why not.This may cause the same or more losses to the paper they are trying to save.
So, on renting, which we are starting to investigate just in case…
I got a report of listings that are up for rent and many of the same houses that are up for sale on also on the report.
But, the rents are at least 30-40 percent cheaper than the cost to own it? Does that make sense? What gives there?
Ann rents in my town are cheaper than buying to.
So I rent till buying is cheaper.Keep you DP making money for you till then.Can’t lose.The prices are to high thats the bubble if homes are not going up crazy like they did its better to rent. Prices will have to decline till its better to own that how the market should work
“I used to use test prep book by New York Institute of Finance.”
bi,
Did you miss this chapter;
The force of a correction is equal and opposite to the advance [delusion] that preceded it.
#458 Ann: It means it is cheaper to rent than to own, its killing the real estate bulls to admit it, but that is the reality.
Much as psychologically you may want to buy, and you listen to all the crap about throwing your money away on rent, it is still cheaper to rent then to buy at this point. When that changes, or at least gets closer then it is time to buy.
#449 anoy: Did you read the whole article? Whereby it says many are not convinced etc.?
Why would you not take whatever the NAR says with a huge dose of skepticism, based on all the crap they have said in the past?
“The No. 1 risk of across-the-board loan modification is losing investor confidence in mortgage backed-securities markets,” Tom Deutsch, deputy executive director of the American Securitization Forum, said in an interview in Los Angeles yesterday. “If they no longer invest in mortgage-backed securities, you cut off the credit available for refinancing, you cut off the lifeblood of being able to give better loans.”
“The government can’t impose, by fiat, changes in servicing policies” for the bonds, said Daniel Nigro, who manages asset-backed securities in New York at Dynamic Credit Partners, which has about $6 billion under management. “The servicer can’t impose broad-brush modifications without examining each loan in more detail,” he added.
“Voluntary loan modifications under regulatory duress is a softer version of the `cram down’ bankruptcy bill being considered in the House,” said Andy Laperriere, an analyst at International Strategy and Investment in Washington. “If the voluntary loan modification approach doesn’t produce the hoped- for results, Treasury may be paving the way politically for the bankruptcy bill.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aCw8VJ4HV61E&refer=home
BC I think the greatest threat of this freeze is it will dry up credit in an already tough credit market for mortgages.Now what do they do with all the houses on the market add to that death,job relos,divorce.This will kill housing just as surely as the expected foreclosures.
Warning:
I received a very official looking email from Bank of America, alerting me of on-line banking disruption. I called the bank, and was informed it was a fraud, and that there has been a significant increase in phishing activity. The bank also requested that I forward it to them.
Be careful out there, the thieves are working overtime.
Has anyone else notice a significant rise in hotel room prices in the last year? It seems like even the worst rooms are now over $300 in the city.
#463/464 BC/Mike: While many people on this board myself included think this bail out is outrageous. I subscribe to the moral hazard arguement (which infuriates Cramer and Kudlow).
It is ironic, this is glong to destroy housing prices even more.
Real Estate bulls out there who support this, you need to stop and think of the ramifications, much as you think you want this, you don’t.
3b As I posted yesterday I am hopping mad over this bail out & moral hazard . But I can’t change it so I look to see what the affect wiil be.I agree it would have been better to let the chips fall where they may.Check out my posts 434 457 we are on the same page.
How could Citigroup make a mess of a little town in Norway? Read on…
“Ms. Kuvaas is the mayor of Narvik, a remote seaport where the season’s perpetual gloom deepened even further in recent days after news that the town — along with three other Norwegian municipalities — had lost about $64 million, and potentially much more, in complex securities investments that went sour.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/02/world/europe/02norway.html?hp
mike – then in some respect I misunderstood your original post.
However, the important thing is to get the majority riled up enough, and educated enough to do what is right for the nation as a whole – including their descendants – not just what is within their own comfort level or immediate self interest.
Points to the disastrous lack of true leadership in this country. The current habit of scaring the cr@p out of people with imagined bogeymen isn’t leadership. Just the fact that people routinely confuse the issue of immigration (and it’s true effects and benefits on society) with the ILLEGAL importation of cheap labor underscores this.
# 458 Ann –
Good isn’t it? Homeowner pays a premium for you to live in their property.
Lisoosh I have tried but the self interest wins out in end.Put forth the kids would have to pay for it to.No dice self interest trumps all.
I hope for a leader smart & brave enough to show the way.In are present 2 party system good luck.Like to give Ron Paul a chance.I do not consider him a rep or a dem.At least he would shake it up in DC couldn’t hurt.
Ann [458]
It’s a sad statement on housing prices…
If the monthly rental price still causes them to be upside down each month, well, they are digging an even bigger hole and don’t know it. These will be the same people who got an infamous sub-prime mortgage…
So this is probably irrefutible proof of overpriced housing: when owners are providing rentals at BELOW actual carrying expenses every month, they are going to sell (obviously!)….and therefore, the sale price HAS TO drop to be competitive with rental costs so as to lure renters into homeownership.
This is as I see it for middle class housing. This does not apply to multi family housing and luxury housing because of extraneous issues…
Ron Paul is a loser. Fortunately, he doesn’t have a snowball’s chance in hell of winning. If he did, he’d probably pull back from our overseas commitments to support democracy. That would result in the terrorists overrunning us here at home. Hugo Chavez is at the very top of the terrorist pack right now and Paul would probably make friends with him. Also, his economic notions are crazy and outdated. Fortunately, he’s a “bit” candidate and is there for entertainment value.
I’m not surprised that housing militants here are enamoured with Paul.
reinvestor…..wtf are you smoking vato?
Ok reinvestor who do you feel is a stand out in the pack.Different new direction
pick one either party.
Voter Registration
The simplest thing the average citizen could do to put some Sanity back into Government is “Change your registered Party Affiliation to Independent”. You can vote any way you see fit, but the simple act of registering as an Independent, will throw the Two party System off balance. They may have to actually come up with a Sane Platform to try and woo Independent Voters. If enough Americans (Critical Mass) registered as Independent (Intelligent) you would be serving notice on the Republican & Democratic Parties that you are not to be taken for granted. When Ross Perot (Independent) won 9% of the vote, both parties were shaking in their boots.
You know, the really amusing thing about Investor-101 is that i cant decide whether he is just a professional troll or is he really smoking that much crack???
I wouldnt be any fun if we all agreed on everyting here, so i can appreciate bi, and richard. But Investor-101, you have a great troll going here you just need to tone it down about 1 notch and you will have an almost perfect troll. the problem is the whole RE bears support terrorist thing was a little overkill. Happy trolling!
Spam Spam:
J.B. has my e-mail if you have any info for a club in Mercer Co. or Bucks Co., PA.
Thanks,
Pat
Vodka (478)-
I think ReTard is a very sophisticated spambot that is somehow programmed to engage in a rudimentary type of reading (or scanning for triggering keywords), then to respond with preset retorts that are about 10-20% relevant to the actual discussion in the thread.
I always listeto the NAR
“If you paid your mortgage off, it means you probably did not manage your funds efficiently over the years,” said David Lereah, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-homedebt28aug28,0,6044251.story?coll=la-home-headlines
# lisoosh Says:
December 1st, 2007 at 10:21 am
BLB – your post is “my ancestors are better than them/their ancestors” rhetoric with no stats to back them up.
“rhetoric”? I’m merely asking you to examine the cold facts no matter how they conflict with the PC holy book.
So, since you have trouble observing the obvious, I’ll help you out with the statistics…
Crime:
http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/glance/jailrair.htm
http://www.amren.com/ar/1999/07/index.html#cover
Illegitimacy
http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/hus/hus06.pdf#010
Education:
http://www.ncela.gwu.edu/pathways/immigration/fact.htm
So to summarize, “kikes” (your word) are over represented in the top levels of society while our new high-volume arrivals and their offspring are over-represented in the crime, out of wedlock births, and low academic accomplishment. You should not try to pretend it away.
I know that it’s a struggle sometimes to see what’s right in front of your nose and all, but sometimes your eyes don’t lie.
Can someone post this?? Thx
The Wall Street Journal. “A government-led plan to freeze interest rates on certain troubled subprime home loans drew criticism both from investors who foresee losses and from some analysts warning that it will merely prolong the pain of the mortgage crisis.”
You know, Mark, the best way to catch flies?
A mitt or some honey.
Depends on what you’re trying to accomplish.
For one purpose, you need a team, rules and umps. Millions watch, but don’t get to play.
For the other, you need nothing but bait.
Now, if you want the best of everything, you mix it up a bit and do both. J.B. figured out what was attracting posters to his site.
#486,
Mark, how’s your weekend? did you go to the track?
#483 marky mark: Be gone you clown, I am one of the happiest people I know, ask anybody.
Just have no patience for clowns like yourself.
#486,
Mark, is it going to snow today? Thx
wow,
is mark a reincarnation of investor??? hey grim check those IPs that tone sounds awfully familiar
mark vermeulen Says:
December 1st, 2007 at 7:59 pm
Chifi needs to begin posting about real estate again. We’re aware you sold in 2002 and held firm as a renter while HTB buyers accrued gains to their net worths. This cost you hundreds of thousands – everybody knows that because you went on national telly and told the world.
X: my old neighbor two doors down sold their place so I have a real data point…they had done some upgrades….my unit was as-is…..officially if you view everything…I left $41,000 or so on the table. This calculation does not include any return applied to the money that was not spent each month. Please give me a fair return to use.
Also, if you watch the interview, you know my wife said that we “…would have had less opportunity to make the choices we have, and we would have less freedom…”…..a number of people here know some aspects of my personal situation. As a result, in addition to being factually incorrect, you tone rings hollow….
Peace.
wtf! too many damn posts.
Did someone leave the door to assylum open. Not a spelling error.
Sorry: also, this calculation gives to return to the down payment as well….give market conditions and the way I have been investing this money, I would argue that I am owed at least 10% returns…..bear this fact in mind when you suggest the return for my incremental monthly savings of renting over buying….
gives NO return to the down payment
#486 As if politics & monetary policy have no
bearing on RE.By the way speaking of a horsesa**.
Re: My question, why are rents lower than buying
Thanks everyone.
The obvious question is why don’t they just sell, but I guess maybe some of them can’t because they would lose so much or maybe they are of the stubborn type.
And of course, many of the houses have been up for rent for months too.
I got to say, the deeper I get into these listings and the historical data, at least in the towns I am looking, the more convinced I am that something has got to give.
You’re the troll. I’ve been on this blog way the hell before you, Clod, Inpatient and assorted other housing militants started showing up. I was on this blog when it first began. You’re the Johnny come lately troll, invader and militant.
kettle1 Says:
December 1st, 2007 at 6:57 pm
You know, the really amusing thing about Investor-101 is that i cant decide whether he is just a professional troll or is he really smoking that much crack???
I wouldnt be any fun if we all agreed on everyting here, so i can appreciate bi, and richard. But Investor-101, you have a great troll going here you just need to tone it down about 1 notch and you will have an almost perfect troll. the problem is the whole RE bears support terrorist thing was a little overkill. Happy trolling!
Actually, I’d rather stick with the team that’s currently in office. Perhaps the Bush administration can take a cue from what Hugo Chavez is trying to pull and eliminate term limits. I’ll admit, the press has really been slanted against Bush and it’s hurt him in the polls, but he’s really been a good president and I’d vote for him again in a heartbeat!
mikeinwaiting Says:
December 1st, 2007 at 6:48 pm
Ok reinvestor who do you feel is a stand out in the pack.Different new direction
pick one either party
Ann [458],
You know why the rents are so much cheaper than to own it? It’s because the majority of the fat, f*cking owners bought their dumps on their janitor salaries when the price to own was based on the old school method of three times base salary.
But then, f*cking pimps like Greenspan and Lereah and Corcoran and “Don” Mozilo had a major league hand in constructing the greatest version of a con job ever devised. The plan was so sinister that it made Mr. Ponzi roll over in his grave.
So, the plundering, embezzlement and fraud reached levels of epic proportions all supported by the unsuspecting natives who have a collective median IQ of 67. And of course, why not? Use me all you can was their motto. We p*ssed any money we had away on mindless, b*llshit cr*p and ridculous overrated vacations and stuffed our fat f*cking faces with overrated slop that our neighbors retarded brother-in-law recommended. BAAAAA! BAAAAAA!
So now, the drunken @ssbags need some retirement money and they are hoping, wishing and praying that some idiot, with an IQ less than theirs, will sign a document that will enable them to collect their lottery winnings while somebody else just signed a death sentence.
The rent money is barely covering their current mortgage payment and is 60% of their current asking price for the p*ss-smelling heep because they are dreaming of a price that IS TOO F*CKING HIGH!!! LOWER YOUR PRICE, FIRE YOUR HOUSE TOUR GUIDE AND QUIT F*CKING DRINKING!!!
Ann If you have to sell short by 40k but you rent at 300 dollar loss per month(now you don’t have 40k)so 3600 per year, 8 years its worth par you sell.You spent 28,800.I would say some owners do the math this way.They might even break even in 10.That is why they rent low & don’t sell.
Who the h3ll is
mark vermeulen ?
I guess I’ve been away to much lately.
KL
A cricketer with disciplinary problems.
Well, I’ve ruled out the following:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Vermeulen
So, he’s obviously part of the Internet Blog Force- Elite Teams Unit.
Grim, you beat me, you devil. I was there first (like reinvestor), just got sidetracked with the interesting stuff out there.
Reinvestor Not a Bush basher myself.Tough times made some mistakes.But you didn’t answer the ?.
Term limits will not change.Who do you see as the best man/woman in the bunch.
From some paper in New Hampshire..
Renting by choice becoming in vogue
At 48, Sheryl Bottner is still a renter, and she’s proud of it. In fact, she has no intention of buying a home. Not now. Not ever.
Ask her about the “American Dream” of homeownership, and she is resolute in her response.
“I have heard that from my friends for several years,” she said. “I had to look at them and say, ‘That’s your American dream. That’s not my American dream.’ ”
Many of these renters by choice regard themselves as winners as they watch home prices fall in parts of the country and homeowners struggle to pay their adjustable-rate mortgages.
…
“The simple answer is that it’s not simple,” said Mike Larson, a real estate analyst for Weiss Research in Jupiter, Fla.
There was a time when it was simpler. That is, when it cost less to own than to rent. Ten years ago, according to Moody’s Economy.com, the average annual cost of owning a home — including mortgages, taxes and maintenance costs — was $10,231 nationally, compared with $13,090 for renting.
Then things changed. Owning became more expensive than renting in the first quarter of 2004, and that trend has persisted. In the second quarter of this year, nationwide, the average annual cost of owning a home was $17,707, compared with $15,721 for renting.
“In the last four years, rent became a four-letter word. No one wanted to rent. They looked down upon it …” said Larson. “I think a lot of people just assumed buying makes sense. They drank the Kool-Aid and unfortunately are finding themselves now in a tough spot.”
I had a look at the NY Fed data about the status of NJ mortgage market. It seems to say that combined LTV in NJ is 93%. Does that mean NJ homeowners only have a combined 7% equity in their homes (this is just for fixed-rate mortgages. The figure was less for ARMs and subprime). Seems incredibly low.
So basically if that’s correct and home prices fall 10% in NJ in 2008, which seems likely, it wipes out all equity in the state.
Business Bad? F*ck you, pay me. You had a fire? F*ck you, pay me. The place got hit by lightening? F*ck you, pay me. And, finally, when there’s nothing left, when you can’t borrow another buck from the bank or buy another case of booze, you bust the joint out.
Who said the phrase above:
A) Henry Hill
B) Angelo Mozilo
C) Ben Bernanke
D) Jon Corzine
E) All of the above
If you answered “E”, you’re probably correct.
Here is the XLS from the NY FRB for those who want to peek:
http://www.ny.frb.org/regional/NJ.xls
#506,
I think you’re forgetting about older mortgages, most of them have accumulated significant equity over time. The data only captures new mortgages.
I dunno, lifelongrenter, that’s only the homes with a mortgage.
Frank: That’s what I thought, but have a look at the data. The time frames are unclear. It couldn’t be just 2007 mortgages. I can’t seem to open it from the PC I’m currently working from, but when I looked at it on Friday, that lack of equity was striking.
First LTV for lien mortgages were much lower, but the combined loan-to-value were above 90%.
So basically if that’s correct and home prices fall 10% in NJ in 2008, which seems likely, it wipes out all equity in the state.
These are securitized pools. We’re not looking at total housing stock, nor are we looking at non-securitized mortgages (a smaller proportion).
But your concerns are well founded, a drop of 10% would likely put the vast majority of these 165,000 homeowners underwater.
The CLTV on these loans is indeed disconcerting, especially the 63,000 Libor-indexed subprime loans with a 99% CLTV.
First LTV for lien mortgages were much lower, but the combined loan-to-value were above 90%.
First lien LTV is irrelevant when such a large portion of these loans have multiple liens (piggybacks).
Grim, Mojo,
please check out this one: MLS# 4976137
to be built on 26 acres.
OLP was $1,795K
LP is $1,895K
the property is sold by richard abrams, an owner of local RE agency (C21).
he has reduced over $300K for some of his other listings in last 2 years. now seems to me that he feel the market starts to turn.
he has reduced over $300K for some of his other listings in last 2 years. now seems to me that he feel the market starts to turn.
No. Raising the price isn’t a sign of strength. It’s a marketing ploy for a house that isn’t getting enough attention at its current price point.
People look for homes within certain price ranges. The realtor is hoping that by raising the price, it will catch the attention of a buyer looking in a higher range that previously didn’t see this listing because it fell below the low end of their range.
I see this more like a Hail Mary pass with about 10 seconds left in the 2007 selling season.
lisoosh, You’re thinking of Europe and Japan, which comprise a very small fraction of world population. There, fertility decline is leading to a reversal of population growth. I would agree that there is nothing wrong with immigration after all it is what made the USA the third largest population in the world and the strongest economy. However unfettered immigration at a rate over 1 million documented and undocumented persons per year has many downsides to it. We are already growing at a rate of 1.5 million people per year without the immigrants, yes we are growing and there is is enough replacement going on. If you look at the stats from a viewpoint of class and not race or culture you will see a trend and that trend cannot possibly be sustained.
What we are sustaining right now through immigration is cheap labor. In the near term we are poised to add another 100 million people as we did over the last 40 years. 400 million Americans should bolster the economy and create additional housing booms and may even fix social security but what will it do for the quality of life here? Pollution and global warming are real and tangible things that will effect the quality of life perhaps cause instabilities that cannot be overcome.
And I was here on this blog before you arrived also. Hell, I was here on this blog before anyone who posts here now with the exception of Chicago and Grim. All of you
are Johnny come lately’s and you have the nerve to call me a troll.
What am I doing talking to you? You’re not even supposed to be posting on this board while I’m here.
Pat Says:
December 1st, 2007 at 9:47 pm
Grim, you beat me, you devil. I was there first (like reinvestor), just got sidetracked with the interesting stuff out there.
reinvestor How about that 08 pick for pres.
I’m waiting……………
To be honest, I see no one that I’d want to vote for at present.
mikeinwaiting Says:
December 1st, 2007 at 9:47 pm
Reinvestor Not a Bush basher myself.Tough times made some mistakes.But you didn’t answer the ?.
Term limits will not change.Who do you see as the best man/woman in the bunch.
NE pricess raimain strong but nothing is selling? Maybe NJ will follow CA..it always did in the past!!!
reinvestor Ok good enough.Don’t think you are going to get any more choices so like the rest of us you’ll have to pick someone who is the least undesireable.What a shame for us all.
520 They will go down: mortgages tough to get,DP required,renting cheaper than buying,that is upsidedown.So thats all you need.Oh almost forgot based on income most people in NJ can’t afford to buy & live here.
I am in Eastern PA, where the demographics are very similar to NJ. On the Pennsylvania Cable Network they aired Thursday’s House hearing on Mortgage Foreclosures. They have proposed a bill to create a moratorium on foreclosures, making the owners pay the equivalent of rent during that time and pay for this using taxable bonds. The Chairman and everyone in that room was in complete agreement with this idea. At the end, he said “I can assure you that something will be done.”
Please, write your local and state governments about these proposals. Here is the address for PA:
PA House Intergovernmental Affairs Committee
House Box 202020
Main Capital Building
Harrisburg, PA 17120