Weekend Open Discussion Part II

Posted on December 2, 2007 by grim

Due to the fact that threads become difficult to follow past the 500 comment mark, I’ve opened a new weekend discussion thread for the day.

Enjoy!

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89 Responses to Weekend Open Discussion Part II

grim says:

December 2, 2007 at 8:12 am

From the Asbury Park Pres:

Suit targets major bank, Dwek backer

Solomon Dwek’s bankruptcy trustee has filed a $129 million lawsuit against a bank and one of Dwek’s biggest investors, saying they knew or should have known that they were helping the real estate mogul carry out a major land and banking fraud.

Filed late Friday night, the lawsuit says Dwek operated a “massive Ponzi scheme” by taking money from new investors to repay older ones, and that he was able to “deliver false profits to early investors (by) creating an illusion that he was a successful, philanthropic real estate mogul who delivered incomparable investment returns.”

A 35-year-old resident of Ocean Township, Dwek built an empire of some 350 commercial and residential properties, many of them in Ocean and Monmouth counties. A state court judge froze his

holdings in May 2006 after Dwek bounced a $25 million check at a PNC Bank branch in Eatontown.

Dwek used $20 million of that to pay off an overdue loan he and investor Isaac S. Franco had taken out from London-based HSBC Bank. Now, Dwek bankruptcy trustee Charles A. Stanziale Jr.’s “fraudulent transference” lawsuit asks for Franco to return $109 million and for HSBC to return the bounced check money.

The lawsuit is one of the largest such claims filed in New Jersey’s U.S. Bankruptcy Court, according to bankruptcy lawyers. It’s being used to bail out creditors of a man accused of masterminding one of the largest real estate frauds in the nation since the early 1990s. The bounced check triggered a criminal bank fraud charge against Dwek, who is free on $10 million bond.
grim says:

December 2, 2007 at 8:14 am

From the Record:

Welcome to the buyers’ waiting game

Where are the buyers?

Many are holding back, hoping to get a better deal if, as some economists predict, home prices continue to slide in 2008.

“An atmosphere has been created that says, ‘Wait and see, maybe you’ll get a better deal next spring,’ ” said broker Honor Noreen Kremer of Malone/Kremer Realty in Leonia. “I don’t have one customer at this point ready to put an offer in on anything. … I’m not sure, even if I found them the right thing, if they’re ready to make an offer.”

“People are really taking their time looking – because they can,” said Diane Stroud, an agent with Terrie O’Connor Real Estate in Allendale.
…
Then there’s the other main category of buyers: bargain hunters.

“Everybody wants a steal,” said Nafi Sela, a real estate agent with Preakness Realty in Wayne. “If something is listed at $300,000, they want it for $200,000.”

Jeana Cowie of Re/Max in Oradell calls them “extreme deal seekers.”

“They’re making incredibly low offers — 40 percent off market value — to see if they can get a steal,” she said. “If the offer is not accepted, they typically do not increase their offer. They just go on to the next home.”

Few seem to be getting “a steal.” But prices have come down from their peaks of two years ago. For example, Sela recently listed a North Haledon house for $839,900; it sold for full price. A couple of years ago, he estimated, it would have gone for as much as $950,000.

Agents say buyers will bite if the price is right.

“I’m not telling you this is a hot market, but I’m telling you if you price a home correctly, there are a ton of buyers looking,” said Dan Weixeldorfer, an agent with Re/Max Legend in Mahwah.
…
Yildiray Yildirim, a professor of real estate at Syracuse University, said buyer psychology is affected by the stream of negative news about housing.

“Buyers are waiting for a better deal. As a buyer, that’s exactly what I would do,” he said. In fact, that is what he is doing. He moved to Syracuse from Ithaca, and has been looking for a house for about two years. He has made low offers, but so far, the sellers have turned up their noses at him. He thinks that may change as the months go on and sellers continue paying mortgages and taxes on houses they want to unload.
grim says:

December 2, 2007 at 8:17 am

From the Home News Tribune:

Feeling pinch in N.J. despite high incomes
by JAMES W. HUGHES and JOSEPH J. SENECA

New Jersey has long been considered a wealthy state because of its high income levels. But most of us just don’t feel wealthy.

As any resident of the state can attest, it’s a struggle to live here because of New Jersey’s high cost of living, particularly housing costs (including property taxes).

The release this year of 2006 data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey enables us to paint a precise statistical picture of this state of affairs.

Although we were just knocked off of our top-ranked income perch by Maryland, New Jersey’s 2006 median household income ($64,470) remained 33 percent higher than that of the nation ($48,451). While we now rank second in median household income among the 50 states and District of Columbia, we unfortunately maintained our No. 1 ranking in housing costs. The state’s median monthly housing costs (for owner-occupied housing units with a mortgage) were 52 percent higher than those of the nation ($2,130 versus $1,402).

Thus, a substantial portion of our income advantage is consumed by much higher housing costs. So, we are obviously not really as well off as our income position suggests.
grim says:

December 2, 2007 at 8:30 am

From the Cape May County Herald:

K. Hovnanian Terminates Wildwood Project

The sun has set on Sunset Cove, a residential village proposed for the city’s back-bay redevelopment.

The city received word Nov. 21 that K. Hovnanian, the developer the city named as a re-development partner in 2003, was withdrawing and terminating its designation as redevel-oper of the property.

“This decision was not made lightly, given the substantial investment of time and money Hovnanian, its associates and consultants have made pursuing the development of Bayside,” wrote Lewis Kurland, legal counsel for the company.
…
“Unfortunately, the state of the housing market (not only in South Jersey, but throughout New Jersey and the rest of the Country), prevent us from investing additional time and funds to move forward with his challenging and potentially exciting development,” Kurland added.
mikeinwaiting says:

December 2, 2007 at 8:33 am

#2 Listen to the profeesor of re.What better indorsement than practising what you preach.Got to love this guy.
gary says:

December 2, 2007 at 8:55 am

grim [2],

You beat me to the punch. I read the story this morning in the RE section.

My question for anyone is, do you think there are a lot of buyers on the sidelines or has the pool been diminished because of the change in lending standards?

It’s interesting though, when you read the listings, you do get a whif of a little desperation. As far as I’m concerned, we still have a loooong way to go before we hear the screams of panic emanating from the dungeons. The idiots are still asking dream prices for their mold infested wrecks.
Frank says:

December 2, 2007 at 9:03 am

#6,
There a lot of buyers on the sidelines because they can’t sell their homes, people need to sell before they buy. If someone needs to drop their price in order to sell, they will demand a discount on the new one.

In 2005 sellers were the “extreme deal seekers.”, in 2007 buyers are the “extreme deal seekers.” What’s the big deal? Everyone wins.
grim says:

December 2, 2007 at 9:08 am

Gary,

Just as there are always sellers, there are always buyers. Always have been, always will be. This nonsense about “pent-up demand” is just that, nonsense. The demand is always there, the question is, at what price?

How many strongly cash-flow positive rental buildings would you consider buying? The rational answer? All of them.

The go-go market has gone-gone bust. A large part of the psychology that enticed buyers in is now keeping them at bay. You remember 2004 and 2005 as well as I do. You couldn’t pick up a paper without reading a story about a waitress turned real estate investor that made $100,000 in a weekend. Stories like that have a big impact on psyche, especially when they appear in the local paper. How many people were lured into the game that might have never played otherwise?

A buyer that can’t secure financing isn’t a buyer, even though they might think they are. This is the issue with surveying “prospective buyers” about their intentions. Just about everyone is going to answer yes to the question, but it isn’t the right question to ask.

While the change in lending might not cause a precipitous decline in prices, it will certainly reduce demand enough to create considerable downward pressure on sales and pricing into at least the mid-term future. This credit crisis isn’t anywhere near done, and I can’t see lenders becoming lax until it’s long been forgotten.
Frank says:

December 2, 2007 at 9:10 am

Extreme deal seeking is not working for most people, this week 2000+ contracts have expired ,mostly in NJ shore. As a result the inventory has dropped by 7000 since September 2007.
mark vermeulen says:

December 2, 2007 at 9:13 am

Grim am I banished?
Ann says:

December 2, 2007 at 9:16 am

Re The Record article:

Honor Kremer “I don’t have one customer at this point ready to put an offer in on anything. … I’m not sure, even if I found them the right thing, if they’re ready to make an offer.”

No, Honor, they are not ready to pay the ridiculous prices that sellers are still asking for.

“Everybody wants a steal,” said Nafi Sela, a real estate agent with Preakness Realty in Wayne. “If something is listed at $300,000, they want it for $200,000.”

Oh yes, we are all trying to steal your houses from you. They are offering 200K because that is all it is is worth to them and your clients are still delusional thinking they will get 300K. Let’s face it, you priced it at peak plus some and basically pulled the number out of your you-know-what. The seller can’t claim they are going to “lose” 100K. Your list price is fake, made-up, a dream. You are owed nothing and your house isn’t worth a dollar until that check is in your hand.

“I’m not telling you this is a hot market, but I’m telling you if you price a home correctly, there are a ton of buyers looking,” said Dan Weixeldorfer, an agent with Re/Max Legend in Mahwah.

I guess, but I see few houses priced properly, especially up in your turf Dan. Why don’t you try to price one right and see what happens?

And yes, the PROFESSOR OF REAL ESTATE who isn’t buying right now. Awesome.
crossroads says:

December 2, 2007 at 9:17 am

what kind of median income to median house price ratio are we looking at? will %30 of income rule ever come back? and I guess we would use median family income which last i saw was in the mid 80’s
mark vermeulen says:

December 2, 2007 at 9:18 am

Chifi, thanks for adding some details about the HTB thing. How much do you think you left on the table when you sold the Clinton Street place in 2002 instead of holding on a few more years?
mikeinwaiting says:

December 2, 2007 at 9:22 am

Gary #6 I believe that all this talk of pent up demand & great hoardes of buyers waiting on the side lines is just that.
Now for my reasoning.
First of all sales in past 3 years have been very heavy.People moved on buying that might not have in fear of geting priced out.
Many who would have bought now need a larger DP to buy so can’t.New lending standard have taken alot of people out of the market.A new fear is out there fear of decline so people wiil wait years till feel more secure.Most importantly it is cheaper
to rent than to buy.This is up side down.Save a DP keep credit good & you pay more than a renter.Until it is cheaper to own than rent the buyers will not buy so are no longer buyers.
mark vermeulen says:

December 2, 2007 at 9:27 am

One thing I’d like to see change about the whole migration debate – more American emigration.

Imagine how much better this country would be if cranky renters and other complainers talked with their feet instead of their mouths – and left the country.

It ain’t that hard to get into Canada or Australia legally. Have any USA haters considered quitting the country they spend so much time bashing?

Lots of whiners say they don’t hate the country or state, they hate the government at all levels. But a country and its government are intertwined. Americans have the government we deserve, Zimbabweans have the government they deserve.

If you like it, STFU and go find a better place.

Viva New Jersey.
mark vermeulen says:

December 2, 2007 at 9:28 am

If you DON’T like it
grim says:

December 2, 2007 at 9:30 am

You aren’t really the cricketer, are you?
mark vermeulen says:

December 2, 2007 at 9:34 am

Mikeinwaiting,

You’re right about demand being brought forward into 2004-2006. Demand for homes defies conventional economics. Normally, when the price of a good goes up, less people want it. But with homes, spiking prices seems to lead to growing demand.

You, like so many others, are wrong about the buy versus rent math. Modest price appreciation (say 3%) over a 10 year holding period will justify buying in almost every case.
mark vermeulen says:

December 2, 2007 at 9:35 am

Grim, trying out a new life here. Southern Africa and England no longer work. Australia and USA are the options. I giving USA a go.
Mojo Jojo says:

December 2, 2007 at 9:52 am

Grim, thanks for the address. Short of emptying my piggy bank, that property is beyond my reach and judging from the picture, it really doesn’t look as nice as the price. I was curious of the location since properties in Mendham and surrounding towns have been sitting a very long time – many over a year. I anticipate this property will reduce considerably if there is interest to sell. It turns out this property is in a very nice neighborhood (this is rare since there are a lot of nice houses sitting on country roads or in older neighborhoods) and there are a couple of other houses for sale there. The stage is set for sellers in this neighborhood to start competing for buyers.

Thanks to all here who help out with information on these properties – particularly Grim, Clot, and Rich who give the rest of us real data, not just conjectures on what the market is doing.
Mojo Jojo says:

December 2, 2007 at 9:52 am

Grim, thanks for the address. Short of emptying my piggy bank, that property is beyond my reach and judging from the picture, it really doesn’t look as nice as the price. I was curious of the location since properties in Mendham and surrounding towns have been sitting a very long time – many over a year. I anticipate this property will reduce considerably if there is interest to sell. It turns out this property is in a very nice neighborhood (this is rare since there are a lot of nice houses sitting on country roads or in older neighborhoods) and there are a couple of other houses for sale there. The stage is set for sellers in this neighborhood to start competing for buyers.

Thanks to all here who help out with information on these properties – particularly Grim, Clot, and Rich who give the rest of us real data, not just conjectures on what the market is doing.
mikeinwaiting says:

December 2, 2007 at 9:54 am

Mark In my situation the math works even with a 35% DP.Now ann a propective buyer has found this also to be the case.5% in a cd nothing fancy or risky.I save & can move,
get divorced in any market.Also do you not think that a change of lending standards &
DP required will put many out of the game?
mikeinwaiting says:

December 2, 2007 at 10:00 am

Just reported Huckabee & Obama lead poles in Iowa.Go figure.
Annamelbourne says:

December 2, 2007 at 10:01 am

Mark said: “Lots of whiners say they don’t hate the country or state, they hate the government at all levels. But a country and its government are intertwined. Americans have the government we deserve, Zimbabweans have the government they deserve.”

Another point of view: “A patriot must be ready to defend his country against its government.”
-Edward Abbey
Essex says:

December 2, 2007 at 10:02 am

15…….If you (don’t) like it, STFU and go find a better place.

Viva New Jersey.

________________________________________

Hey famous cricket player…..nice to have a real celebutante posting…even if it is a sport not normally embraced by mainstream America. Bashing the USA? Why my friend that is a god given advantage of the folks here. Allow me to shed some light into a few dark areas for you….we Americans have been under an 8 year regime of one of the most ineffectual, wasteful morons ever to occupy the office…we’ve seen our hard earned tax dollars squandered…our dollar devalued…and an overall debacle of the highest order.

If you live in this Country and are not pissed off at the current situation then you haven’t been paying attention. I ‘own’ a home — love NJ –but have serious issues with the state and federal leadership and their ability to get us through this without serious lasting damage to the Nation.

So before a right-handed opening batsman and occasional off spin bowler comes in to set everyone straight we’d all appreciate a little bombast from the cheap seats…
mikeinwaiting says:

December 2, 2007 at 10:11 am

Info 2452195 thx
Ann says:

December 2, 2007 at 10:14 am

498 Gary, previous thread, re why are rents so much lower than cost to own.

You got it. They bought so low, and then when they put it up for rent at 40% lower than the cost it would be to own, they are giving themselves away and now you know you are getting ripped off. I enjoy seeing their RENTALS that have been ‘available’ since July. And I’m not paying the first $100 of any repair unless you can prove I broke something, like put a fork down the garbage disposal.

There are the folks who have been here 30 years and bought for 50K. They are the ones that surprise me the most. Get out now! Lower the price until you sell it. What are you waiting for? Things will not get better, 2005 is over. Yes, you are not going to get the price your stupid neighbor got three years ago, because YOU MISSED THE BOAT.

Then there are my favorites, the 40ish, buyer-uppers. They bought a ‘starter’ house back in the 90s for 250 and now they want you to pay 700 for it so they can do take their massive dump of cash and go buy a real house on your back. They’ve priced out the cost of an addition and the math doesn’t make sense. I guess it doesn’t when you think that you can get 700K for your split. Then of course, they think they are such great business people that they will turn around and lowball some McMansion.

Then there are the folks that bought in boom. They are totally screwed, but might be the most realistic of the bunch.
Clotpoll says:

December 2, 2007 at 10:14 am

vermin (19)-

“Grim, trying out a new life here.”

Who are you running from? Are you wanted? If I went to Interpol’s site, would you be there? Have you had plastic surgery?

Are you Carlos the Jackal?
Clotpoll says:

December 2, 2007 at 10:16 am

BTW…cricket is the dumbest f(&*ing activity I’ve ever seen passed off as sport (and I include tractor pulls and professional bass fishing in that list).

Paddleball for retards.
Clotpoll says:

December 2, 2007 at 10:21 am

Ann (27)-

“Then there are the folks that bought in boom. They are totally screwed, but might be the most realistic of the bunch.”

Exactly. Talk about motivated sellers!

Only a truly motivated seller will do what it takes to sell in this market. Which means that the haircut they must accept by selling is less painful than the foreclosure- or years of being trapped in an equity-gobbling box- that would otherwise occur.
kettle1 says:

December 2, 2007 at 10:58 am

MOJO

I have family that lives in mendham and am familiar with a couple of the people trying to sell. These people saw a few neighbors sell for 800-900K in 05 and are still convinced that “this is mendham, houses demand a premium here”. FYI, this is mentality that exists there as of last week when i was talking to one of the people selling
Clotpoll says:

December 2, 2007 at 11:01 am

OT…Jints -1.5 vs. Bears today.

What am I missing here?
gary says:

December 2, 2007 at 11:08 am

Clotpoll [32],

That’s a great question. I wouldn’t touch this game.
gary says:

December 2, 2007 at 11:14 am

Ann [27],

Amen! You hit the nail right on the head. I’m looking to trade up from my current home; however, I have very realistic expectations. Whatever price is going to move my house is the correct price. If I happen to get back my original down payment and nothing more, then so be it.

I think the majority of sellers are greedy slobs and their selling agents (I snicker when I say that term) are even more delusional than the sellers they “represent”.
Ann says:

December 2, 2007 at 11:29 am

#34 Realistic expectations are great. We are technically buyer uppers too now that I think about it, but I sold at a reasonable price and expect the same on my purchase.

The listing agents are a real problem. The localism is a real problem. We just got rejected on a very reasonable offer and the listing agent was so insistent at what a great street is was because her husband grew up on it. Things always looked bigger and better when you were 10, didn’t they?

The fact that agents usually live in the communities they work in, and own property there, and have emotional attachments makes them very delusional. Then of course, they feed some crazy listing price to get the listing.
gary says:

December 2, 2007 at 11:35 am

Ann,

If you’re not absolutely positively not 100% satisified with your decison, then just walk away and look for the next possibility. Rinse and repeat. If the agents and their “clients” try to feed you some line of cr*p, simply walk away. Plain and simple.
Essex says:

December 2, 2007 at 11:39 am

Not a great time to trade up….imho….prices are still too high…and you are getting either crap mcMansion construction….or 60 year-old classics with 60 year-old issues.

Best thing to do is make improvements and upgrades on existing properties…when the market finally loosens up you can turn it over. Look for that to happen in 2112.
1987 Condo Buyer says:

December 2, 2007 at 12:04 pm

#37, agreed. starting work on adding a bedroom this week. Looked around for 2 years and the price differential moving from 3 to 4 was about $200k plus remodeling. I’ll take my updated ranch and spend half as much…not a perfect solution but need more space now.
looking in ny says:

December 2, 2007 at 12:21 pm

Greenspan Was `Very Bad’ Fed Chairman, Says Artus of Natixis

Nov. 30 (Bloomberg) — Alan Greenspan, who led the U.S. Federal Reserve for 18 years and was revered in the financial markets, was a “very bad” Fed chairman.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a.n.BheticNQ
Richie says:

December 2, 2007 at 12:33 pm

Good read. Like the statement “he was a great fireman, but he started all the fires”.

How true, how true…

Reminds me of those pop-ups you get on the internet. “YOUR COMPUTER IS INFECTED, CLICK HERE TO FIX IT.”
Mojo Jojo says:

December 2, 2007 at 12:41 pm

Kettle,

Thanks for your insight on Mendham. The “Mendham is special” mentality is still entrenched here but I have seen discounting in the 14 months that I’ve lived in this area. I’ve seen a few homes reduce from the low $2M range to the mid $1M range. Also, houses that were selling in 05 are simply not selling now and have been on the market for a long time. Not everyone has the luxury of waiting over a year to sell.

I’ve branched out to Harding, Bernardsville, Baksing Ridge looking for more opportunities. I’ve found several instances where ’02 prices are within reach but the house or location just weren’t right. As I mentioned, I made a bid recently on a decent property but seller is not willing to make the tough call. His loss.

I have 20% down, no house to sell, and financing ready so I refuse to make a move on a house unless it is perfect and the price protects me somewhat from upcoming price shocks. Stock vests in late 2009 so the closer I get to that date, the more I can commit to a house. I want to buy once and forget about real estate for the next 20 years.
chicagofinance says:

December 2, 2007 at 12:43 pm

mark vermeulen Says:
December 2nd, 2007 at 9:18 am
Chifi, thanks for adding some details about the HTB thing. How much do you think you left on the table when you sold the Clinton Street place in 2002 instead of holding on a few more years?

verms: when we bought in 1998, we could have rented the place out at about $1800 a month, when we sold at the end of 2002 we could have charged about $1300-1400 a month rent. Why? Market was flooded with rentals and everyone was looking to move to Manhattan (post 9/11 environment – read the Bankrate article). As a result, I could either have held the condo and be out of pocket money each month, or else do what we did which was eliminate six figure (non-mortgage related debts) in school loans between my wife and me and have six figures left over……we then went to HTB and rented a north view 2BR for $2145 a month with free gym….

Also, I won’t go into the details, but the condo was a venus-fly-trap (we made it look like a cream puff, but it was a trap), and my wife was at the end of her rope with me about it. I know from living there that we would constantly be turning over tenants, because there were ….issues….

I never really calculated what I might have left on the table. It sold for $110,000 more two years later in 2005, but I don’t think it has really moved in price since then, because it doesn’t fit the new “luxury condo” mold – it falls under the category of junk crap….would you pay $400,000 for a 719 sq.ft. stick structure condo built in 1984….walking distance to the PATH? Neighbors with hardfloor floors above your head and an informal condo board that didn’t impose any rules?

If I regret anything, it is not dropping $620,000 to buy a 1BR + den in the Sugar House Loft in JC in the summer of 2002. However, at that juncture, if anything had happened, we would have been crushed. Ultimately, it would have been really depressing and inconvenient living over there, so who cares?

If people want to argue about what the RE market had done from October 2002 to Summer 2006 in Hoboken, then you open the door to my retort.

Bear in mind that we sold the condo right after Worldcom and the stock market bottomed out in 2002. So we have participated fully in the ensuing bull run with all of our resources except about 50% of our down payment. Yeah – hindsight is 20/20, but I will not tolerate RE Bulls focusing on half the picture….meaning for everyone says….don’t you wish you had blah, blah, blah with RE? yeah, but look at what I did folks…..I came out way ahead.
shore guy says:

December 2, 2007 at 1:10 pm

431 gary Says:
December 1st, 2007 at 11:00 am
“For the Northeast, the worst is already past and the question is how fast the recovery will be,” Lawrence Yun said. “Will it be a strong recovery or weak recovery?”

http://biz.yahoo.com/bizwk/071129/nov2007db20071128562540.html?.v=1&.pf=real-estate

Wasn’t that like what the captain of the Titanic said: “It is just a minor correction in our path to NY. The pumps are working and the lads will have the hole plugged very soon. Ignore the listing and the sounds of the boilers going out. And be sure to travel White Star Lines again.”
Ann says:

December 2, 2007 at 1:14 pm

Gary, that’s right. The only thing I regret is the hour of my time I waste looking at their house and the tree that had to die to write up the offer. I’m in a month-to-month lease, so I have months to do this.

#41 re “Mendham is great.”

This mentality cracks me up and it goes on all over NJ. Every town is better than some other town, isn’t it? All the towns went up, all the towns are going to come down, and some towns will still be more expensive than others of course, but no town is immune.
lisoosh says:

December 2, 2007 at 1:30 pm

Essex – I think I’ll be dead in 2112.

Just sayin’.
mikeinwaiting says:

December 2, 2007 at 1:36 pm

Shore Guy 43 the worst part of all about NAR is no matter how wrong they get it they juat keep the bull comeing.At what point does the media question their credibility.It would seem never.Have to say this for them brass you know what.
shore guy says:

December 2, 2007 at 1:38 pm

gary Says:
December 2nd, 2007 at 11:35 am
“Ann,

If you’re not absolutely positively not 100% satisified with your decison, then just walk away and look for the next possibility. Rinse and repeat. If the agents and their “clients” try to feed you some line of cr*p, simply walk away. Plain and simple.”

I second the motion. The bottom line with any asset is that it is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it. Enron stock is a great example of this. Towards the bitter end, does anyone think that anyone cared what the seller of stock paid for it? The same is true of RE, the fact that someone else overpaid for the asset does not make it worth any particular number.
gary says:

December 2, 2007 at 1:41 pm

See, here is the f*cking problem:

http://homes.realtor.com/realestate/ridgewood-nj-07450-1089966905/

I hate to keep using expecitives but I can’t help it. H*ll would need to freeze over for anyone with an IQ even close to average to pay anything close to this laughable price. This house was half this price just a few years ago. These sellers are delusional. $600,000 for that stink. Think about that.

And I want the realtors and potential sellers who are reading this right now (and I know you are) to think about it. With a 20% down payment of $120,000, you are left with a $480,000 mortgage on this shack which equates to a monthly PITI of $4,000 per month. Can you comprehend the assinine stupidity of this concept? Obviously not.

You’re insulting us; all of you. The buyers are finally getting it and will wait and wait and wait until the law suites and the panic and the pain and the stupidity of your insulting gestures are gone and forgotten.

The buyers are slowing winning this war, and I’ll keep reminding you sellers and simple-minded house guides every chance I get.
Essex says:

December 2, 2007 at 1:46 pm

Gary, it’s nothing special….but there are people who really want to live in the high consumption towns like Ridgewood….Millburn….etc. Lucky them.
gary says:

December 2, 2007 at 1:50 pm

Essex,

It’s sheer lunacy. You’re probably right and if that’s the case, then the buyer who pays anything near the price for that house is a bigger moron than the seller.
mikeinwaiting says:

December 2, 2007 at 1:52 pm

Gary 48 But this is Ridewood!Over half a mil no c/a.It can sit till h*ll freezes over.I have decided if rate freeze prolongs agony I will just wait it out in my very low cost rental.
Essex says:

December 2, 2007 at 1:56 pm

Mike I am seeing some great townhouse deals up in Vernon….nice stuff! Wish I had the cash to do a 2nd get-a-way place….
Richard says:

December 2, 2007 at 1:57 pm

>>I think the majority of sellers are greedy slobs and their selling agents (I snicker when I say that term) are even more delusional than the sellers they “represent”.

then tough @#$% stay in your current residence and stop bitching about how no one will come down to meet your price. you people can bitch, argue and rationalize all day about how prices will be less but if you actually think your little community will affect this i have a bridge to sell you. inflation adjusted prices mean little to hopeful home buyers as the average annual raise just gets sucked into cost of living adjustments on your rent, food, energy, etc.

seriously if all the sellers and agents believe the same thing however much you think it’s wrong and won’t lower their prices then the only thing you can do is nothing.
gary says:

December 2, 2007 at 2:00 pm

And you know what the beauty of it all is? I’m a long time homeowner with a heep of equity. I can’t even be accused of being a bitter renter. LOL!! I think it was a crying shame the way buyers were treated over the last seven years and how it really screwed families. And to boot, all the lies and BS that was fed to these people have now left a lot of them in distress. Do you think Angelo Mozilo or David Lereh cares?
gary says:

December 2, 2007 at 2:05 pm

Richard,

seriously if all the sellers and agents believe the same thing however much you think it’s wrong and won’t lower their prices then the only thing you can do is nothing.

Au contraire, mon ami.
mikeinwaiting says:

December 2, 2007 at 2:12 pm

Essex You can have a small house cheaper as taxes on condos is very high to pay for golf course.Also high Maint. costs.Looked at some 4 bdrm ones did the math not worth it.By the way hidden water cost 180 per quarter.The amount of condos on GSMLS is very high for my area never seen so many.I get updates on new listings auto. by email & its always more dam condos.They will get alot lower,many rentals to.Its dead up here on both fronts.
mikeinwaiting says:

December 2, 2007 at 2:25 pm

Essex BY the way 2112 post has forced me to crank up Rush.Kids & wife not to happy!Tough luck!
BC Bob says:

December 2, 2007 at 2:27 pm

“you people can bitch, argue and rationalize all day about how prices will be less but if you actually think your little community will affect this i have a bridge to sell you.”

Richard,

Obviously you didn’t believe prices would come down. You capitulated towards the end of 2006. someone found a greater fool. YOU. How does it feel to be bearish, yet plunge in and buy at the top? Great market timing.
gary says:

December 2, 2007 at 2:29 pm

Jeana Cowie of Re/Max in Oradell calls them “extreme deal seekers.”

“They’re making incredibly low offers — 40 percent off market value — to see if they can get a steal,” she said.

Hey Jeana, did you ever think that the offer the buyer is making IS market value?
grim says:

December 2, 2007 at 2:38 pm

Preliminary GSMLS November data will be posted later tonite.
Frank says:

December 2, 2007 at 2:41 pm

How another edition of lowball?
mikeinwaiting says:

December 2, 2007 at 2:44 pm

Gary Its worth what someone is willing to pay for it.As the listings all sit this will dawn on some.
Rich AS you say our little group can’t affect prices.How do you explain whats going on across the US.No need for super fund or rate freeze.RE is strong & will not decline.Thats why people are not up side down.My god its all over the place denial will not make it go away.
grim says:

December 2, 2007 at 2:48 pm

Extreme deal seeker? Sounds like something her 7 year old son made up. Duuuudeeee thaaat deeaaal is soooo extreeeemeee.

No need to make up a new term, vulture is commonly understood in these cases, and derogatory enough for you to have gotten your point across.

Now if you had called them grave dancers, I’d be impressed.
Ann says:

December 2, 2007 at 2:57 pm

Richard, you make a good point. It is very possible that the 1,000 sf cape in Ridgewood is going to be worth 1 million dollars in five years and silly anyone for not jumping on it today! Or not.

Sellers are definitely trying to hold out for their plus-peak prices. But the growing inventories and low number of sales and months and market and houses that up for rent and sale show you that the prices are probably going to give eventually.

Maybe if the sellers all ban together and form a peak-plus-10-percent cabal, they can outwit the market.

I love when the market is going up, up, up, it’s the market and glory be to it. Alleluia!

But when it’s going down, it’s the buyers’ fault who think they can get away with robbing these poor homesellers and the “negative media”

I fully admit that I might be wrong, and prices could recover in the spring and zoom on up and I might be priced out forever. Or maybe these sellers will be kicking themselves that they didn’t take my big fat check.
gary says:

December 2, 2007 at 2:58 pm

Hey Jeana, consider me an extreme deal seeker.
looking in ny says:

December 2, 2007 at 3:09 pm

#40 Richie

You’re right. And there’s something really bizarre about a former Fed chairman disinvesting himself personally from the US dollar.I wish I could provide the link to the interview where I read him saying that. Here’s another ridiculous message –

Greenspan Says Dollar’s Decline Has No `Real’ Impact (Update2)
By Anthony Massucci

Nov. 18 (Bloomberg) — Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said the dollar’s decline hasn’t affected the global economy and is a “market phenomenon.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=axhJcwCakiis
grim says:

December 2, 2007 at 3:30 pm

Nice REO comp killer in Caldwell, off today’s hotsheet.

Which would you choose?

MLS# 2465336 – 12 Fells Manor (Foreclosure/REO)
3br/2.1ba end-unit townhouse
Asking: $469,900 (Pre-foreclosure asking price: $599,900)

or

MLS# 2445386 – 19 Fells Manor
2br/2.1ba interior-unit townhouse
Asking: $525,000

The 3br end-unit is priced below both of the 2005 2br interior-unit comps in the development ($505k & $500k).
Essex says:

December 2, 2007 at 3:32 pm

#57……love RUSH…..wife has not as much regard for the greatest trio to ever come from Canada since TRIUMPH…….

I on the other hand have been jamming to a little Jimmy Silva and the Goat 5’s masterwork ‘heidi’…..and this tune from love and rockets…..

Love and Rockets An American Dream Lyrics
And I was dreaming in my sleep
Saw through you all
And I was dreaming still on my feet
Saw through you all

And I saw what you could be
And you just don’t feel free

And I saw what you could be
But you just won’t be real to me

So let’s blame this excess
On an American dream
So let’s blame the success
Of an American dream

Are you confused by the chaos
In everyones wandering eyes
Do you dream of running naked
In warm rain
Are you confused by the chaos
It’s no, it’s no surprise
We all stand next to Jesus
Close to Satan we’re both the same

These birds can’t fly away away
These birds can’t fly away

So let’s blame this excess
On an American dream
So let’s blame the success
Of an American dream (x4)

Feeling so high and low
It’s the American dream (x4)
Clotpoll says:

December 2, 2007 at 4:06 pm

Ann (64)-

Reech is just a bitter bagholder, trying to talk up a selling environment that died at just about the time the ink was drying on his closing documents.
3b says:

December 2, 2007 at 4:29 pm

Interesting advertisement in today’s Record real estate section.

Builder has six lots with on model built. The advert reads come bid on the model, or pick your own lot,and builder will build to suit at builders cost plus 15%.

The development is in the Solider Hill area of Oradell, and for those who care about such things, that is the mosr prestigious/exclusive area in Oradell.
3b says:

December 2, 2007 at 4:36 pm

#64 Ann: I can gutantee you there is no way prices will zoom up come Spring, that is current sellers and recent buyers delusions talking.

And I doubt that 1000sq foot cape even in Ridgewood, will be worth one million in 5 years.

The real estate insanity is over, everybody I believe except the current sellers and recent buyers (last 3 years), understand that fact.

Common sense and logic is becoming very fashinable again, much to the dismay of current sellers/recent buyers.
3b says:

December 2, 2007 at 4:47 pm

#51 mike: Actually I am convinced the freeze rate bailout (as reprehensible as I find it), will actually accelerate the price declines.

Just what lender is going to want to issue mtgs where the govt can step in and manipulate the rate? Seems to me the lenders are going to want a premium on the rates they charge going forward.

And just what investors are going to want to buy MBS’s with that kind of uncertainity?

This bailout is just going to rapidly accelerte the decline in prices.
mikeinwaiting says:

December 2, 2007 at 4:55 pm

3B preparing for the worst hoping for the best.That is a very possible outcome.
mikeinwaiting says:

December 2, 2007 at 5:06 pm

3bHeres the flip side,sellers take this as a sign that foreclosures are over & hold out longer at price.Sheeple will not realize
the affect on mortgages till the house sits for a few more months.Not that bright or would have lowered already before it gets worse.
BC Bob says:

December 2, 2007 at 5:17 pm

“Just what lender is going to want to issue mtgs where the govt can step in and manipulate the rate?”

3b,

Maybe all contracts will be up for interpretation.
3b says:

December 2, 2007 at 6:13 pm

BC/Mike What kind of confidence would an informed buyer have in putting a bid in on a house while at the same time they are freezing rates/bailout.

Lots of uncertainity etc, I would need an additional premium (discount in price) for that.
3b says:

December 2, 2007 at 6:16 pm

#75 BC There you go, we can make the contracts say what people need/would like them to say depending on what happens at any given time.

Of course if they had to share any future house price gains, they would be enraged, un-American, Communist etc.
BC Bob says:

December 2, 2007 at 6:33 pm

3b,

It’s freeze frame. Throw in cc’s and auto loans, after all they’ll be the next subprime. I think I’m turning Japanese, I really think so.
BC Bob says:

December 2, 2007 at 6:36 pm

“The yen advanced from the lowest in two weeks against the dollar after Moody’s Investors Service said it may cut the top ratings on six of Citigroup Inc.’s seven structured investment vehicles”

“The Moody’s news over the weekend suggesting more write downs prompted yen buying,” said Sue Trinh, a currency strategist in Sydney at RBC Capital Markets, the second-most accurate exchange rate forecaster in the second quarter, according to Bloomberg data. “This is likely to continue for the next two months.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=adnAy9U1TN3s&refer=home
mikeinwaiting says:

December 2, 2007 at 6:55 pm

Giants finding ways to screw up.
3b Is there any scenario that you do not
want additional discount.lol!I get it did not explore that out come.Ok now why should I take out a mortgage I will pay when every one else is of the hook or has a silly low rate.Lets buy winter 09 anthor wave of resets 2010-11 we are off the hook to.BC 3b you in!They can’t Shouldn’t do this the can of worms they are opening is mind numbing.
BC Bob says:

December 2, 2007 at 7:12 pm

Mike,

I agree. Buy in 2009, 2 year adjustable, sit back in 2011, next wave of resets, and wait for the next freeze.
mikeinwaiting says:

December 2, 2007 at 7:16 pm

we are men with a plan!
mikeinwaiting says:

December 2, 2007 at 7:19 pm

but wait look at grims charts maybe I can buy cash!No hold it take the freeze hide money with Swiss.
Clotpoll says:

December 2, 2007 at 8:55 pm

Grant Hill scorching the Knicks, all by himself.
Franck says:

December 2, 2007 at 9:02 pm

Bernanke is going to cut interest rate as a low as he can. I wouldn’t be surprised if he cuts to .5%. I would like to see what happens after that.. This is a man who thinks that we didn’t print fast enough during great depression. Apparently Japan tried that. But I guess we are different!!!
Clotpoll says:

December 2, 2007 at 9:46 pm

Here’s the thing that really makes me want to upchuck:

I was just reviewing the week and came across a Kudlow piece, in which he stated that the USD would gain strength- even in an environment of rate-cutting- as long as the economy showed strong, non-inflationary growth.

He then proceeded his usual bleat for massive rate cuts…as though the US’ strong, non-inflationary growth was some sort of given.

Is there something I’m missing (kinda like Eli’s rabbit foot today) here?
njpatient says:

December 3, 2007 at 1:58 am

“Have any USA haters considered quitting the country they spend so much time bashing?”

Ask reinvestor. He hates America more than anyone I know.
Confused In NJ says:

December 3, 2007 at 8:05 am

I don’t think supporting Prudent Economic Sanity is a reason someone should have to move from the US. The rules I operated under Historically, I think, were Fair and Economically Sound. My time spent in the Armed Forces for example (4 years through 1967), cost the Government @ $100/mo plus room & board. The Privatized Military is significantly more expensive. My Home Purchases (Four) through 2006 all operated under affordability rules. The 1977 and 1981 purchases involved 20% down and mortgages which were within 2-3x’s annual salary. No Lender was stuck with a bad loan. The 1981 purchase involved a mortgage at 16 1/2% 30 yr which was later refinanced to 12% 15 yr. I never bought anything I couldn’t pay for. My primary problem with the current Economics, including the Housing Market is that they are Destructive to the People & Economy. A Few are reaping Obscene Compensation for promoting Bad Finance. Any Future comments about Leaving the Country, unless you are a VET prior to Military Privitization, You haven’t earned the Right to Make that Statement. Your a Taker, not a Giver.
3b says:

December 3, 2007 at 8:54 am

389 mike: I am in!!

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