From the Wall Street Journal:
Mortgage-Relief Plan Divides Neighbors
Protection Is Spotty In Southern California; The Oropezas Pack Up
By JONATHAN KARP
December 17, 2007
A mortgage-relief plan being pushed by the government is supposed to help debt-laden homeowners across America. But it’s creating dashed hopes and fresh tensions in this city that mushroomed during the subprime-lending boom.
Shannon Kelly was excited when she first heard about the plan, rushing to tape a TV news report about it. But her hope of escaping a sinkhole of debt was short-lived: Her adjustable-rate mortgage doesn’t qualify for a bailout under the terms outlined by the Bush administration and the mortgage industry.
Across town, in a condominium development riddled with foreclosures, there was holiday cheer for Karey Kelly, who is no relation. With monthly payments on her $351,000 mortgage set for a punishing rise in January, the single mother already had applied for an extension of her rate when the government-backed initiative was unveiled. Her credit score is on the cusp of the limit, but “I’m pretty positive that I meet the plan’s criteria,” Ms. Kelly says.
The Bush administration has touted the plan, announced this month, as a potential lifeline for hundreds of thousands of subprime borrowers, as well as a means to cushion the economy from the mortgage meltdown. Supporters say the proposal to freeze interest rates for certain buyers and accelerate loan refinancing for others aims to target deserving debtors and avoid aiding those who really can’t afford their homes. Congress joined the rescue effort last week, passing legislation to help borrowers with mortgages up to $417,000 to secure refinancing.
Yet Southern California, an epicenter of foreclosures, poses a particularly tough challenge because of the mix of adjustable-rate loans and high home prices that put many mortgages above the ceiling for government guarantees. The relief efforts so far have been met with skepticism.
The prospect of aid for some borrowers, but not others, brings another layer of discord to neighborhoods already racked by plummeting home values, rising bank repossessions and vacant houses whose owners simply up and left.
…
Incentives and adjustable-rate mortgages got first-timers into homes without any down payment and enabled refinancing. Many who refinanced drained their equity, betting that home values would keep soaring. Now tens of thousands of homeowners are exposed to unaffordable interest rates and a sluggish resale market.Corona lawyer Nathan Fransen says he has nearly 100 clients trying to avoid foreclosure but none appear eligible for the rescue package. “The government has misread California. Most foreclosures here are on loans that haven’t adjusted, meaning that people can’t afford what they have now,” says Mr. Fransen. He lives in a gated community where he says dozens of million-dollar homes face foreclosure. “The plan won’t help much here, and the problem is going to get worse.”
From Paul Krugman & NYT:
What Shall We Do After The Money’s All Gone?
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve announced plans to lend $40 billion to banks. By my count, it’s the fourth high-profile attempt to rescue the financial system since things started falling apart about five months ago. Maybe this one will do the trick, but I wouldn’t count on it.
In past financial crises — the stock market crash of 1987, the aftermath of Russia’s default in 1998 — the Fed has been able to wave its magic wand and make market turmoil disappear. But this time the magic isn’t working.
Why not? Because the problem with the markets isn’t just a lack of liquidity — there’s also a fundamental problem of solvency.
Let me explain the difference with a hypothetical example.
Suppose that there’s a nasty rumor about the First Bank of Pottersville: people say that the bank made a huge loan to the president’s brother-in-law, who squandered the money on a failed business venture.
Even if the rumor is false, it can break the bank. If everyone, believing that the bank is about to go bust, demands their money out at the same time, the bank would have to raise cash by selling off assets at fire-sale prices — and it may indeed go bust even though it didn’t really make that bum loan.
Because loss of confidence can be a self-fulfilling prophecy, even depositors who don’t believe the rumor would join in the bank run, trying to get their money out while they can.
But the Fed can come to the rescue. If the rumor is false, the bank has enough assets to cover its debts; all it lacks is liquidity — the ability to raise cash on short notice. And the Fed can solve that problem by giving the bank a temporary loan, tiding it over until things calm down.
Matters are very different, however, if the rumor is true: the bank really did make a big bad loan. Then the problem isn’t how to restore confidence; it’s how to deal with the fact that the bank is really, truly insolvent, that is, busted.
…
How will it all end? Markets won’t start functioning normally until investors are reasonably sure that they know where the bodies — I mean, the bad debts — are buried. And that probably won’t happen until house prices have finished falling and financial institutions have come clean about all their losses. All of this will probably take years.
Meanwhile, anyone who expects the Fed or anyone else to come up with a plan that makes this financial crisis just go away will be sorely disappointed.
From Bloomberg:
Moody’s Warnings on FGIC, MBIA Cast Doubt on $1.2 Trillion Debt
Moody’s Investors Service’s warning that the top credit ratings of FGIC Corp. and three other bond insurers may be cut casts doubt on $1.2 trillion of municipal, corporate and asset-backed securities.
Moody’s late on Dec. 14 placed the top Aaa insurance ratings of Stamford, Connecticut-based FGIC and XL Capital Assurance Inc. in New York under review for possible downgrade. It affirmed the Aaa insurance ratings of Armonk, New York-based MBIA Inc. and CIFG Guaranty in Hamilton, Bermuda, though it said the outlooks were “negative.”
The companies guarantee the timely payment on debt issued by local governments and by Wall Street firms that package existing bonds backed by items including payments on home equity lines of credit into new securities. If the insurers lose their Aaa ratings, so too may the securities they guarantee, forcing some holders to sell the bonds because of their investment guidelines.
“Everyone understands the systemic risk if even one of these companies is downgraded,” said Peter Plaut, an analyst at hedge fund manager Sanno Point Capital Management in New York.
From Bloomberg:
Centro Slumps 76% on Struggles to Refinance Debt
Centro Properties Group, the owner of 700 U.S. shopping malls, slumped 76 percent in Sydney trading after saying it’s struggling to refinance debt because of the collapse in the subprime mortgage market.
Melbourne-based Centro suspended dividends and said in a statement that it may have to sell assets, after lenders set a Feb. 15 deadline to negotiate maturing debt. Traditional sources of funding are “shut for business,” Chairman Brian Healey said in the statement.
…
“Centro are no longer in charge of their own destiny,” said Callum Bramah, a Sydney-based analyst at Macquarie Group Ltd. in a report. “We believe Centro will be required to sell assets at a loss simply to use the cash proceeds to pay down debt.”
(Note: Centro describes themselves as the 5th largest retail property owner/manager in the U.S.)
From Bloomberg:
Merrill Lynch to Cut Fixed-Income Group’s Bonuses, People Say
Merrill Lynch & Co., the securities firm that reported a record $2.24 billion third-quarter loss, told fixed-income managers to cut 2007 bonuses by an average of 40 percent, according to two people briefed on the matter.
Payments may fall by as much as 80 percent for traders who specialize in the mortgage bonds and collateralized debt obligations that posted the steepest losses, said the people, who declined to be named because the decisions aren’t public. Bonuses may drop 20 percent for interest-rate traders and 60 percent in the New York-based firm’s corporate bond unit, the people said.
Someone accused me here of not caring about other people and only caring about my investments. That’s a lie. I care a lot about the plight of my fellow Americans, but I think that they need to make better choices. So, to put a positive spin on the news that’s provided here, I decided to offer this article.
Also, I sometimes lose my temper and have used rough language and accusations against those who I disagree. I’ve decided to turn over a new leaf and to be polite from this day forth. I apologize to anyone I may have offended when calling you a name or making a joke at your expense.
Sincerely,
R.E. Investor 101
BusinessWeek.com, with the help of Sperling’s BestPlaces, put together a list of best affordable suburbs in each of the 50 states. Of course, the list doesn’t catalog all the great suburbs out there, but we tried to discover relatively affordable communities where you’ll find low crime and unemployment rates, decent schools, reasonable commutes, and good shopping and entertainment options.
Defining “Affordable”
“We looked for places on the outskirts of cities that were no more expensive than 80% to 125% of the metro area’s median home price,” said Bert Sperling, founder and president of Sperling’s BestPlaces, based in Portland, Ore., and co-author of Best Places to Raise Your Family: The Top 100 Affordable Communities in the U.S. “We didn’t want to exclude ones where you could pay a little more and have an exceptional experience. We also didn’t want places that were truly expensive…..
Sperling said his favorite affordable suburbs have a “small town” quality of life. He especially likes Coralville, Iowa, near Iowa City, the home of the University of Iowa. And Snohomish, Wash. — about 15 miles northeast of Seattle — is “separate enough from the metro area that it has its own distinct quality, with a sense of history and a real downtown.”
http://news.yahoo.com/s/bw/20071213/bs_bw/dec2007db20071211596083;_ylt=AqX5jaRQ2h8JzyQXNoXo0eSs0NUE
ReTard (5)-
Why don’t YOU move to Pigfart, Iowa?
“I care a lot about the plight of my fellow Americans, but I think that they need to make better choices.”
Go look in the mirror. The vast majority of posters here sound like they’re doing just fine.
I found a comp killer in Rahway – my apologies if it’s been posted before.
MLS 2433414: 1381 Essex Street, 2 BR, 2.5 BA townhouse in Riverwalk. Current LP: $369,000
Purchased 6/20/2006 for $450,900 (!)
At face value that’s a loss of $81,000. I don’t know the full story, but that’s a lot of money to lose no matter how you slice it. Similar properties in the complex sold in the mid-400s through 2005 and 2006. Ouch.
“The government has misread California. Most foreclosures here are on loans that haven’t adjusted, meaning that people can’t afford what they have now,”
I’m not sure if the govt misread it or they are simply presenting a suckers play. Remember, you don’t get to be the CEO of Goldman [Paulson] if you are not the master of the sucker play.
By the way, the practice bubble, at the meadowlands, popped yesterday. A precursor of things to come.
Good thing the FED discounts Food & Energy when worrying about Inflation.
Wheat Price Surges Above $10 for First Time on Supply Concerns
By Madelene Pearson and Marianne Stigset
Dec. 17 (Bloomberg) — Wheat rose above $10 a bushel for the first time, bolstering prices for other grains and oilseeds and stoking inflation.
Chicago wheat futures rose as much as 30 cents, or 3.1 percent, to $10.095 as dry weather threatened crops in Argentina, adding to concern the world’s farmers may not be able to grow enough to meet demand for bread, pasta and livestock feed. Rice also gained to a record, while soybeans reached the highest in 34 years and corn was its costliest in nine months.
Kellogg Co., the maker of Frosted Mini-Wheats cereal and Eggo frozen waffles, and General Mills Inc., which makes Cheerios cereal, already raised prices. Kikkoman Corp., Japan’s biggest maker of soy sauce, said this month it will lift prices for the first time in 18 years, while Sara Lee Corp. said Dec. 13 it will increase bread prices for a second time since September.
“We are seeing a broad-based increase in cost pressures,” Brian Redican, senior economist at Macquarie Group Ltd., said in an interview from Sydney today. “The increase in soft commodity prices is really the next stage in that process.”
The price of wheat has more than doubled in the past year as drought reduced output from Australia to Canada. Dry, warm weather may hurt yields in Argentina, forecaster Meteorlogix LLC said Dec. 14.
A smaller Argentine crop may reduce global wheat inventories that the U.S. government says will drop 11 percent by May 31 to 110.1 million metric tons.
`Fear Factor’
“Global supply is really tight at this time,” Tobin Gorey, a commodity strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said by phone. “Saying there’s a near-term top in the price is a very dangerous thing to do.”
Wheat for March delivery, the most-active contract, rose to the exchange-imposed daily limit of 30 cents before trading up 2.1 percent at $10.025 a bushel in after-hours electronic trading on the Chicago Board of Trade as of 11:43 a.m. London time.
U.S. consumer prices rose the most in more than two years last month, reinforcing the Federal Reserve’s concern that inflation will erode confidence in the economy. Food prices account for about a fifth of the consumer price index. European inflation increased last month at its fastest annual pace since May 2001.
“People need to eat and that’s part of the fear factor in this environment,” said Brett Cooper, an adviser on agriculture at broker MF Global Australia Ltd. “There’s people saying potentially $11 or even $13” for wheat.
Pricier Noodles
Higher food prices are forcing some Italians to eat at soup kitchens and threatening unrest in China, where a stampede at a supermarket sale of cooking oil killed three people in November.
The Chinese government said today it will eliminate export tax rebates on a range of food commodities such as wheat as part of a series of measures to secure domestic supplies and control rising food prices.
The tax incentives on exports of crops including rice, soybeans, corn, barley and oats, as well as flour milled from these grains, will be eliminated from Dec. 20. China’s food costs gained 18.2 percent last month, pushing inflation to the highest in 11 years.
Russia, the world’s fourth-biggest wheat exporter, plans to cap exports of the grain once shipments for the year from July reach 12.5 million tons, as the government struggles to control inflation. The threshold may be breached as early as January, according to Russia’s Grain Union, which comprises the nation’s biggest grain producers and traders.
Egyptian Tender
Egypt, the world’s second-largest wheat importer, last week canceled a tender for at least 80,000 tons of the grain because of high prices. Other customers are also cutting back, AWB Ltd., Australia’s largest wheat exporter, said today.
“Buyers are reluctant to lock in significant tonnage at the current prices as their flour margins are negligible,” the Melbourne-based company said in a statement. AWB “expects the international wheat market to remain extremely tight for the first half of 2008.”
India’s State Trading Corp. will close bids today to buy 350,000 tons of wheat as the country, the world’s third-biggest importer of the grain last year, seeks to replenish reserves.
Milling wheat for March delivery on the Euronext.liffe exchange in Paris rose 6.75 euros, or 2.6 percent, to 267.75 euros ($385) a ton as of 12:50 p.m. local time. Prices have climbed 81 percent this year.
Soybean futures rose as much as 17.25 cents, or 1.5 percent, to $11.9225 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade, the highest since June 1973. The contract for March delivery was at $11.8250 as of 11:50 a.m. in London.
Goldman Sachs
Soybeans may lead gains among non-energy commodities next year because of shortages of acreage and rising demand for biofuels, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said in a report Dec. 11. Prices have gained 73 percent this year after U.S. farmers planted the fewest acres in 12 years in favor of corn.
Corn for March delivery rose as much as 5 cents, or 1.1 percent, to $4.4325 a bushel in Chicago, the costliest since Feb. 26, when the price climbed to a 10-year high of $4.5025. The contract stood at $4.4075 in London.
I posted about two weeks ago that we were getting close to closing on our first home. Well, the builder called Friday night and they want to close this Friday. So it looks like we are on.
They started framing the house across the street on spec. I hope that works out well or it could affect or property value (not that we plan to sell).
I’m trying to do my part by buying GE appliances (not sure if they are actually made here) and buying them through a local dealer (Eatontown TV – they beat the price by 10% of all the big boxes I saw).
As I mentioned before I was calling the housing boom since 2003 or so (wasn’t looking before then). Still feeling good about this purchase. I keep checking the MLS and crappier houses in the same area are still listing 50-100 grand higher so I figure our price is actually a little low.
Wish me luck.
BH
Absolutely terrible.
“Dressed in his best Sunday suit, Fausto Cepponi took his wife and seven-year-old son out for dinner — at a soup kitchen.”
“I never thought I would be in this position,” said Cepponi, 45, a security guard, dining in an 800-seat charity cafeteria near Rome’s main train station. “I have a job, I had a car, but everything has become so expensive and what I earn just isn’t enough. I panic every third week of the month.”
“With salaries on hold, prices for staples such as pasta and bread rising and mortgages soaring, efforts to keep up appearances — “fare la bella figura” in Italian — can no longer disguise that thousands of job-holding Italians are failing to make ends meet. They’ve been labeled “The New Poor,” the title of a book published this year.”
“Rising interest rates have compounded difficulties. One in four homeowners can no longer afford their mortgage payments, which have risen 50 percent in two years, consumer association Adiconsum says. The government’s 2008 budget, if approved, will create a 10 million-euro fund to help about 400,000 families that risk losing their homes.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a7dt4e2MDOEs&refer=home
BH,
Congrats, be sure to let us know how everything goes.
BH,
Congrats and best of luck.
Does this sound like anyone any of you know or have encountered?
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/12/15/AR2007121500025.html
No Question, All’s Well in the State of Denial
By Elizabeth Razzi
Sunday, December 16, 2007; Page F06
Meet Pollyanna, your real estate agent.
She has stuck with the real estate business through two tough years, and she’ll spend the winter convincing herself that the only problem with the market is that headline-hungry oafs in the news media have talked buyers into hiding. It’s not the economy that’s keeping buyers away; rather, it’s the talk about the economy that has them sidelined.
[snip]
“It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends on his not understanding it.”
-Upton Sinclair
Two Months to go! If compare the last bubble (techonology) collaspe to how many months we are into the collaspe of the RE bubble we have two months to go. But in the Tech bubble burst those last two months tech went down 20%, a real capitulation to the bottom. We need that now. First we need the homebuilder/mortgage stocks to find a bottom, next we need our SEC/Auditor investigations to correctly tell us the exposure, then the banks to push of the exess REOs and finally for the indidual sellers to se a good year of realistic comps so they lower their asking prices, in reality their is no reason the cycle can’t be finished by March 2009. However, that does not mean housing is coming back anytime soon. Just that banks can start making loans again as they don’t have to worry the ten precent downpayment won’t be zero percent equity before the first year is up.
Too bad Bush does not just work on passing a rule that anyone with a mortgage over 9% or will reset to over 9% in 2008 can for one year withdrawl 401K money penalty/tax free to pay down a primary home mortgage to either/or have 80% equity or get it under $417k so they can refinance. Even better let grandparents, children, brothers/sisters and significant others with the same primary address allowed to withdrawl the monies to help out. If the subprime people did not save for their retirement and have no famly members who want to help them in their time of need why the heck should I help them out?
clot: you lied to us….you have no willpower….
Clotpoll Says:
December 17th, 2007 at 8:06 am
ReTard (5)-
Why don’t YOU move to Pigfart, Iowa?
“I care a lot about the plight of my fellow Americans, but I think that they need to make better choices.”
Go look in the mirror. The vast majority of posters here sound like they’re doing just fine.
1:00 – Home Builders Survey
The National Association of Home Builders and Wells Fargo bank will release the December Housing Market Index (HMI). The index measures housing market conditions by surveying builders’ on current sales, buyer traffic through model homes, and expectations for sales during the next six months. The index has dropped by more than half since February. The November level held fast at 19, from 20 in September, and 33 in November of 2006.
The index tracking current single-family home stayed at 18, from 20 in September. Expectations for the coming six months ticked down to 25, from 26 in October and September, respectively. However, more respondents saw an uptick in the number of people visiting model homes, although the November level of 17 is was just slightly above the record October low of 15. Overall, HMI supports other figures which show no end in sight for the housing recession.
Citigroup downgraded ratings of Capital One, Radian Group, Countrywide Financial and MGIC Investment Corp.
“We expect consumer lenders and insurers to face further credit challenges as home prices decline 3% to 5% in each of the next two years, mortgage rates reset and the macro economy slows. Moreover, tightening lending standards and underwriting practices should initially compound the problems, making it generally more difficult for consumer lenders to grow out of the downturn,” the broker said,” the broker said.
Statistics due for release include the New York Fed’s Empire State manufacturing poll for December, the third quarter current account, international capital flows for October and the NAHB’s housing market index.
BuyingH Says:
December 17th, 2007 at 8:26 am
They started framing the house across the street on spec. I hope that works out well or it could affect or property value (not that we plan to sell).
I’m trying to do my part by buying GE appliances (not sure if they are actually made here) and buying them through a local dealer (Eatontown TV – they beat the price by 10% of all the big boxes I saw).
BH: congrats…..supposedly this place is the best Chinese in the state. I haven’t had a chance to get over there….the only excuse I get to eat chinese is lunch with my colleague.
Far East Taste
19 Main St./Rte. 35 | (Broad St.) | Eatontown, NJ 07724 | 732-389-9866
The kitchen turns out “masterpieces” at this Eatontown Chinese-Thai BYO helmed by Richard Wang, who has a knack for cooking “fantastic” fish dishes; sure, it “defines hole-in-the-wall”, but the decor is easy to overlook considering the quality – and low prices – offered here.
Seems like an interesting day for the Indian markets.
grim,
can you pass on my email to lisoosh and spam/bacon?
lisoosh, spam/bacon: I’d love to discuss the area with you folks. – again – we all could be neighbors!
Also, I will look into bridgewater JCC – thanks for the tip!
sl
Ron Paul raised over $6 million in one day. MSM could make this a story. He will raise over 20 million in fourth quater alone and that’s more than any other republican.
Can this man still win or is he running out of time?
It would be sweet to see 3,000+ resume’s on monster with IRS experience in one day and making April 15th a completely non significant day on the calendar.
Not to mention having all the troops home in a matter of weeks.
Jim Cramer is jumping on his bandwagon too. Check out this link.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Nf9Gbkbm8I
#10 BuyingH –
regarding GE appliances –
i never had good luck with them.
Larger than life inflation?!
http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/Issues.aspx?NewsletterEntryId=1275
From Reuters:
National City sees loan loss provision of $700 mln
National City Corp, the ninth-largest U.S. bank, said on Monday it expects its provision for loan losses for the fourth quarter to be about $700 million.
The bank said that home equity loans and non-prime mortgages transferred to its portfolio in the third quarter have shown further deterioration beyond what the company anticipated at the time its September 30 loan loss allowance was established.
“The areas of elevated risk continue to be in the run-off portfolios of First Franklin non-prime mortgages,” the bank said in its filing.
…
The company also said in a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission that its mortgage business “continues to be under stress.” It said charges of about $200 million were incurred in October and November.
BuyingH
I’ve had great performance from my GE appliances. My last fridge lasted 25 years without a single problem. I do recommend Kenmore for washer/dryers, though.
Congrats on the house. May you have many happy years in it.
Now I am feeling old. When we were in high school, the things peole woried about was someone smoking or drinking something they should not have.
MOUNT LAUREL: Police in Mount Laurel are investigating who’s responsible for a disturbance at a local dance that sent seven people to area hospitals with gunshot, stabbing and trampling wounds.
Police arrived at the dance around 12:30 a.m. Sunday after gunshots were fired into the skating rink where it was taking place.
The shots hit two people. Four people were stabbed soon after. Another man was trampled while trying to exit the building.
“Larger than life inflation?!”
Orion [25],
Major problem. The beast has been released. Maybe we can recycle Gerald Ford’s WIN buttons?
http://www.american-presidents.org/2007/11/whip-inflation-now.html
I used to buy nothing but GE. The last things were in their Profile line. I will not do so anymore. GE is so focused on financial services and large industrial and medical equipment that the appliances are no longer what they were.
29,
or like the 70s, we can turn the WIN buttons over to make it NIM, no immediate miracles.
shore guy [31],
I like that one. I don’t remember that. And in today’s environment, akin to turning UBS into SUB.
BTW the economy isn’t that bad. My friends Mercedes is coming off lease and she said if I want it I can go to dealership with her and pick it up for residual amount. So I went to my local dealership to see what they are selling 2005 E clases for so I could decide if it was a good deal.
There was a little snow on the ground and I saw tons of Yukan XL Denali’s etc., (wife’s car) in the parking lot while husbands were looking at little mercedes to be their matching station car, 75K station car at that, but then again if the wife needs a 65K 4by4 to go to Trader Joe’s and church why not!!
How about this survey? 1/3 of Americans still think that their house will rise in value this year.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/22260762
The percentage of Americans homeowners expecting a decrease in their home price has grown to 16% from 9%. An American who believes his home price will decrease in the next 12 months will spend 23% less, or $110, this holiday season than the average American. Fortunately, most Americans don’t believe their home prices will decline.
About a third still believe their home values will increase over the next year, down from 40% in March. The average expected growth in home prices is just 2.2%, about half the expectation from October. Still, half of Americans expect their home price to stay the same over the next year and the survey shows their holiday spending will be more than $100 higher than average
OT, but figured Lisoosh and others might go for this. Adam Sandler is putting out a movie this summer “You Don’t Mess with Zohan,” mossad agent moves to NYC to become a hair stylist. Trailer looks pretty good:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g2SubyJNeZY
Watch out with GE serial codes. I bought a $1,200 oven from PC richards and they installed it. I saw PC richards open it brand new from BOC in my driveway when it came and I inspected it.
Oven broke and GE denied me service as serial code was missing. It is no longer a metal plate but just a sticker near the oven door that can fall off. GE claimed it was PC richards fault and PC richards claimed it was GEs fault. PC richards said they don’t even open all the boxes so how do they know what the serial code was and GE said they don’t track them either, them I said screw it and asked for my money back for my extended warranty since why should I have paid for it awhen they would not fix it. They said no, BBB would not help and the AG would not help. Then out of poor maddness I called their financial reporting whistle blowing hot line and told them they have a breakdown in internal controls as they have misclassified the amount of money I spent on my warranty as income when in fact it should be returned to me. If the money is not returned to me in 30 days I intend to contact the SEC to press criminal charges against the CEO and CFO of GE. Well 29 days later I got my money back for my warranty, I still got stuck with the bad oven and GE’s policy is they won’t even fix the oven if I pay them without a serial code. I am free however to buy the replacement part and fix it myself.
It was only $125 bucks for that warranty, but it was the principal, selling me a defective oven is one thing but then trying to steal the warranty money without fixing it is another.
BH – Good Luck wish you all the best.
BC – It IS global, that’s what the bulls don’t seem to be able to assimilate.
sl –
I just looked up the JCC and don’t see it listed any more (but give them a call just in case).
Feeling guilty I did find this link which lists places in Fleminton and Hillsborough. Probably worth checking out:
http://www.kravmaga.com/newjersey.asp
Bc, Grim, or anyone else,
I need to be schooled. During a period of double digit inflation, traditionally what industries have performed best. Who’s gonna make most money? Will DOW keep with Double Digit inflation?
ANy thoughts of ways to make money since we all know how to hedge agaist inflation and we all know that it’s coming and that it we’ll be severe and last a few years.
39
Liquor and other sin stocks, and other basic food soap companies.
39
Liquor and other sin stocks, and other basic food and soap companies.
Good morning Clod!
How are you today? I’m doing quite well this morning!
Is there actually a town named Pigfart Iowa? Do you think it’s a good area to invest in? Do you think that those who are priced out in NNJ might want to consider commuting from there? I know you’ll have some interesting thoughts about this.
I really think that many people are frustrated because they missed a buying and wealth building opportunity. I believe they’re better served by looking to live elsewhere and either commute or telecommute to work if they can. There are quite a few people who live someplace that’s less expensive and simply stay overnight where they work at during the week and come home on weekends.
If you missed the opportunity to buy, then you have to be flexible! You have to accomodate the market and not expect that market will accomodate you.
Clotpoll Says:
December 17th, 2007 at 8:06 am
ReTard (5)-
Why don’t YOU move to Pigfart, Iowa?
“I care a lot about the plight of my fellow Americans, but I think that they need to make better choices.”
Go look in the mirror. The vast majority of posters here sound like they’re doing just fine.
make money
TIPS and iBonds are inflation hedges, so are gold and gold equities, though these have all been run-up massively. Equities aren’t great inflation hedges, since interest rate hikes usually follow, which are bad for stocks. Re bonds, its better to keep maturities fairly short, as unexpected inflation hits longer durations harder.
This is a couple weeks old, not sure if it has been posted:
http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2007/11/upside-down-in-america.html
An unreal situation where the family bought a 1.2 million house by putting down $270.00 (effectively 100% financing).
They lived in the house for three years and pulled out $333,000 in equity. The blogger makes it sound like the owners will just walk away. Smart move, huh?
Slightly off topic**
James,
Looks like another so-called upgrade to gsmls due at the end of december! Last time I went kicking and screaming to the next system and will probaly do the same this time. Last time I had given you one or two better ways to navigate and get the info you need, I think I’m gonna rely on you for this change – your quicker on the draw (-:
KL
Make,
I am not sure if you’re pulling my leg but I have today off so I’ll wax poetic.
Inflation has been here for the past few years masked as a falling dollar.
Look at what’s worked the past couple of year’s and compare that to the 1970’s, the last time we had stagflation.
Commodities/ commodity related stocks did well in both instances (oil, oil service co’s, gld, slv, platinum, mining stocks, [agricultural commodities and stocks more this time than then]).
There’s TIPS for bond investors. STRIPS/Zero Coupons are a good idea for capital preservation if you believe we’ve enetered a pure deflationary period.
Some people say to invest in multinational corporations that have large exposure to BRIC growth as the slowdown in the US is likely to hurt small caps as an investment class this time around as they have no such exposure.
If you have the time to do the homework, and can absorb valuation information and understand technicals for entry and exit points then go the individual stock route.
If you are more passive take a look at the ETF’s. You can still bone up on the basics of chart analysis to figure a good entry point.
This is the most important point I’ve gotten from every investment book I’ve read: Make sure you understand the concept and have placed sell-stop orders to limit your losses (go in to a position weighing how much you are willing to lose up front, take a look at the chart and see where the stock/etf is seeing support, that’s usually a good entry point and also a good place to set the stop-loss around). That’s how run of the mill people end up losing $$$$. Riding sh*t like the Internet Fund to a 50% loss.
Still cluelss buyers out there.
I found out the transaction price of the house I’ve been watching as a comp. The house was relo company owned and was on an aggressive $50K/mo price reduction schedule.
Asking price started at $2M and had been through two months of reductions with no interest and asking price down to $1.9M. Seven other comparable houses (same price range/area) have been on the market for a year with no signs of market picking up. News for home sales was as bad as can be.
Buyer bought it for 2% off current ask — $1.86M. Don’t know the situation in detail but I do know that the house had no other offers and it needed some work (deck was in bad shape, lots of scratches from moving on floors, walls, etc).
???
House did sell in mid 2003 for $1.84M new. This is a very desirable area so I’m sure the buyers at that time had to compete with other buyers and they overpaid substantially.
Thoughts?
There are some NJ towns in that “50 best places to raise your kids list.”
They are not all in Pigfart, Iowa.
we have to give credit to this new kid on the block called pandit. he took over $50b to the balance sheet before he warmed up his seat. what doe that mean? that means more and more subprime loans will be absorbed by big packet banks, which is firmly supported by fed. that means we are near the end of this liquidity crisis (not credit crisis IMO). that means people will have more confidence in real estate investment.
http://images.ucomics.com/comics/jd/2007/jd071216.gif
If you can make it in Jersey, you can make it anywhere.
bi #49,
Awesome! Good to hear! Where do I sign up for what I’m owed?
thatbigwindow,
Define “make it”.
Syncmaster,
$75k a year at 25
$125k a year at 30
$200k a year at 35
New worth growth of 10% per year
Less than 45 minute commute
#53: Live the life you want to live while still being able to pay for your car insurance, property taxes, over priced house, kids, and so forth..
Herring # 43
gold is not always a hedge against inflation. It certainly can be, but it depends on the specific economic environment.
this will give you a quick overview
http://tinyurl.com/2er8p5
for the lazy:
Gold is primarily a “crisis” hedge. if all else fails, gold will always maintian some level of value. In inflationary periods where there is little fear in the market gold can fail as a hedge because people do not move into gold markets and increase the price. But in markets marked by fear of the market like the current market or like the early 80’s gold can be a good hedge against inflation. So basically, in the current market gold is probably a good hedge against inflation due to the current market fears that drive more people to gold.
Sorry, meant to write net worth growth of 10% per year.
pret #54,
It’s interesting and revealing that your definition includes income and lifestyle but not levels of debt.
In any event, can you explain how you came up with those figures? I’m quite comfortable, have a lot of room to grow in my current home, owe about 2x my annual salary on my mortgage (very manageable) and commute 25 minutes to work. But I fall short of your targets. Am I a total loser or just a sort of loser? ;)
thatbigwindow #55,
Your definition makes sense.
44 …many similar activities i Upper Montclair ….:(
Syncmaster,
Debt is reflected in my numbers – debt is a key part of the net worth calc.
The numbers are based on my experience living and working in this state for most of my adult life.
I know that numbers are bait for critics, but numbers help add some perspective, even when they’re estimates. That is why I used numbers.
Otherwise you end up with definitions like this: “Live the life you want to live.” Impossible to disagree, but also not very useful or interesting.
I know that numbers are bait for critics, but numbers help add some perspective, even when they’re estimates. That is why I used numbers.
Pret #61,
Fair enough. Do your numbers make sense for people employed, in, say, the pharma industry? If not, then are they, by definition, not making it?
Would anybody be kind enough to give me some past sales, etc. information on MLS # 2465417?
Thanks
Syncmaster,
Sounds like your making it fine. Using my own parameters, I wasn’t making it in New Jersey in my early 20s.
So I decided to quit big pharma middle management, get some useful credentials, and take some risks. It has been worth it.
Another sample of the “average” persons view of the current market…
At dinner with the inlaws over the weekend, they asked MRS Kettle and myself why we dont buy a house right now instead of renting, “its a great time to buy a house, prices arent going up like they were the last few years”. I responded that i do not plan to buy a home in a declining market when i have a perfectly good rental. The inlaws response was ” what? why would the market be going down? we have already seen any price drops that are going to happen and with he normal winter slow down going on, its a good time to buy”. I usually end these conversations with “we just arent ready yet”. I have tried explaining the real situation to them and others and i get looked at like i am an idiot….. oh well, you can only be shown the door, you have to walk through it yourself
bi (49)-
“…we have to give credit to this new kid on the block called pandit. he took over $50b to the balance sheet before he warmed up his seat.”
“…what doe that mean?”
That mean C may be functional inslovent.
From now on, I will only answer bi in the writing style of bi.
kettle1 #65,
If everyone were to believe it’s a good time to buy, it would become an awesome time to sell. It isn’t, because enough of them don’t.
Pretard does not accept anecdotal evidence unless it’s his anectdotal evidence.
Bush is on TV butchering the English language. Good news is he did not propose any additional housing programs.
Dan,
59 Mountainview
Purchased: 4/3/1995
Purchase Price: $184,500
MLS# 2254511
Listed: 03/06/06
Original List: $599,900
Reduced to: $539,900
DOM: 365
Expired
MLS# 2382449
Listed: 03/07/07
OLP/LP: $499,900
DOM: 184
Expired
MLS# 2465417
Listed: 12/02/07
OLP/LP: $475,000
DOM: 15
Active
grim,
tx!
little by little, coming down in price.. seems that I just have to be patient…. is there a way to know if it was ever under contract?
I don’t see any indication on the GSMLS that it was ever ARIP or UC.
Pretorius,
When you generalize and say something like a 10% increase in net worth each year, it makes my hair stand up. I have brought to your attention previously when your Enron-esque accounting, overstated your calculations for net worth by double counting 401k, etc. This time, you state a ‘10% addition to net worth’ as an observation.
Take your example of a 75K salary at age 25 and a $200K salary at age 35, which equates roughly 10.8% increase in salary each year. For arguments sake, say you save 10% a year. That’s approx $143000 saved. Add in a 7-8% market return each year, and your net worth should be 50% more than amount saved and growing because of incremental returns each year to your amount saved.
A blanket ‘10% addition to net worth statement’ lacks a fundamental understanding of calculating returns. What you are in effect saying is that you might have saved 10% of your salary each year, and earned 0% market returns the last 10 years. The Beardstown Ladies would be proud of you. Or perhaps you are earning fantastic market returns in your initial investments, but are a lousy saver. Which one is it?
#49 bi: most people do not even know what is going on with Citi, or in the credit markets in general.
So forget about people making real estate decesions based on Citi or anybody else.
They only realize there is a problem once they go to get financing,and discover that they do not qualify.
Ah, out of the mouths of babes, sorry I mean bi.
Since Harvard decrees financial aid charity cases at anything under 180K, 200k does not sound like much. Net worth should rise a heck of a lot more than 10% a year. The average bonus at Merrill is 60% and a lot of my friends over their spend their whole salary and bank the bonus so they do 60% of their income each year in savings.
As crazy as this sounds most of my friends bought their homes in the 1990’s for around 300K and refinanced and have around 100K left. To most of them their outstanding balance is like 4 months income.
That is part of the problem in the subprime meltdown, the guys in their 50’S who are big executives have no concept of the problem. They paid peanuts for their houses and their incomes are huge. Exec’s who are buying hampton houses etc. you never hear them bragging about what rate they got, they pay cash.
pretorius Says:
December 17th, 2007 at 11:18 am
Syncmaster,
$75k a year at 25
$125k a year at 30
$200k a year at 35
New worth growth of 10% per year
Less than 45 minute commute
If anyone is interested here are some informative charts on the current impacts of inflation. the website is “the oil drum” an energy blog, but the charts are interesting
http://tinyurl.com/265kqz
#42 reinvestor: No we are better served waiting and buying a hosue at a substanial discount. Real estate markets go up and down, real investors know that, they do not cry for handouts.
Very interesting read over at Bloomberg:
Subprime Securities Market Began as `Group of 5′ Over Chinese
Representatives of five of Wall Street’s dominant investment banks gathered around a blonde wood conference table on a February night almost three years ago. Their talks over take-out Chinese food led to the perfect formula for a U.S. housing collapse.
Dreamtheater and John,
Thanks for your comments.
Net worth growth comes from saving & investing. Probably my 10% figure is too low.
How do you guys define making it in New Jersey?
Re making it in Jersey and John’s post: The example cited was of employees at ML. While that may be representative of people working in the financial sector, it isn’t even close to being representative of the NJ workforce as a whole. Is the argument being made that employment in the financial sector is a prerequisite to “making it”?
Just curious, not challenging anyone. Ya’ll clearly know a lot more than I do.
#34 shore guy: Fortunately, most Americans don’t believe their home prices will decline.
Oh thank God!!
Re: Appliances
Most GE appliances are made in Mexico.
Kenmore doesn’t make anything. It is either a GE, Whirlpool, or Frigidaire that Sears contracts out and puts a Kenmore sticker on.
Syncmaster,
The 2 paths to making it in NJ are to be a small business owner or work in the finance industry.
There are other ways of course (doctor, lawyer, accountant) but these paths require specific decisions to be made in late teens and early 20s.
I worked in big pharma. Very little upward mobility there even if you’re good, so I quit. If you want to stay in pharma, I believe you need to switch jobs every few years. That is the only way you can grow your income more than 5% per year.
Re: Making it in Jersey – the big $ and huge salary increases cited don’t take into account the draconian layoffs at financial firms amid any kind of difficulty. When things are good the $ rolls in, and when they turn they ax a large % of the workforce. Even when things are good about 10% of the workforce is fired at places like Merrill every year(underperformers, changes in markets, people no one likes etc.). Also, my sense is that if you work in a highly specialized area (like mortgage securitization) you will not be able to get another high-paying job any time soon. Maybe ever. All the $hit you bought when you were “making it” could get mighty hard to pay for.
83,
I believe that Kenmore is also made by LG, at least some refrigerators.
pret #84,
I’m in IT in the insurance industry. I mentioned pharma because, well, it’s discussed often on this site.
I don’t get 60% bonuses. 10-15% in a good year. Too many bad years though. No bonus this year, rich people in FL lost their beach homes. Oops no bonus this year either, Saudi azzholes blew up the WTC. And this year, CEO finally realizes (doh!) that IT is an expense center so no bonuses for us.
-End gripe-
Re accountant – What about those accounting courses at county colleges that are geared for adults who want to get into the profession? I have an econ degree w/ accounting coursework, think it’s worth it?
Re accounting, RU has an accounting MBA – their site says the average starting salary for an RU accounting MBA is only 60k. Why the heck would you advertise that????
Sync
That is low class of your company to cut your bonus to zero. That is simply not done in my sector of IT (finance).
From Dealbreaker Re Citigroup Layoffs:
http://www.dealbreaker.com/2007/12/post_646.php#more
Homebuilder confidence for December remained at its lowest point ever, for the third month in a row.
Mike NJ #89,
I know. I am just waiting to fully vest.
#81 Uh, Sync, love ya but it’s not “ya’ll” – it’s “y’all” as in “you all.” Y’all can be either plural or singular but the emphatic, all inclusive form is “all y’all” as in “now I juss wanna thank ALL Y’ALL fer comin’ to Miss Lucy’s sendoff. As y’all know, Miss Lucy was a godly woman, but the good Lord saw fit to call her home…” at which point there is a loud ka-wish as Uncle Virgil in the back pops open a cold one. (God, I’ve been down here too long!)
Starting point for Jail can be the “Sub Prime Group of 5″. Preferably a prison which serves Deli food rather than Chinese.
“In the beginning, everybody brought their lawyer,” says Lippmann.
Eventually, the Chinese food was replaced with deli fare because some participants complained it wasn’t kosher.
From MarketWatch:
Home builders index stays at record-low 19 in December
U.S. home builders remained extremely pessimistic in December, but at least their mood didn’t get any worse, according to a monthly survey of builders’ attitudes released Monday. The home builders’ housing market index stayed at 19 for the third straight month in December, matching the lowest reading ever in the 22-year history of the index released by the National Association of Home Builders and Wells Fargo. The reading was in line with expectations. At 19, the index shows that about one-fifth of builders are confident in the market for single-family homes. The index peaked at 72 in June 2005. It was at 33 a year ago.
From Bloomberg:
Homebuilder Confidence in U.S. Held at Record Low in December
Homebuilder confidence in the U.S. was unchanged at a record low in December, signaling falling home prices and a glut of unsold properties will extend the housing slump into 2008.
The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo index of builder confidence was 19 as forecast for a third month, matching the lowest since records began in 1985, the Washington- based group said today. Levels lower than 50 mean most respondents view conditions as poor.
Builders are scaling back construction plans as falling sales cause inventories to pile up and foreclosures rise. Some potential homebuyers are holding out for bigger price declines, suggesting construction will continue to limit growth.
“Builders have little reason to be optimistic,” Ethan Harris, chief U.S. economist at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in New York, said before the report. “Despite lower prices and greater incentives, sales have continued to fall and cancellations have increased.”
The forecast was based on the median estimate of 38 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Projections ranged from 17 to 21. The index averaged 42 last year.
…
gain in perceptions of present and future sales was offset by a decline in the number of buyers visiting projects. The group’s measure of single-family home sales rose to 19 from 18 the prior month. A measure of sales expectations for the next six months rose to 26 from 24. The index of buyer traffic declined to a record-low 14 from 17.
Outofstater #93,
That’s what I get for trying type like someone I’m not. I’ll print that out and memorize it, I promise I’ll git it right next time, yes I do!
Yo ReInvestor, the Bear has another article for you to read:
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/index.php?a=15238
Cause that is a good starting salary!!! Remember, if you enroll in school right now you need five years to sit for CPA so places like rutgers roll the BA/MBA together. Big 4 firms pay 60K to start as without the two years experience and passing the CPA you are worth shit. Remember, it is based on 40 hour weeks, if you work 60 billable you can bang out 240 hours a month which is six weeks, you can get the CPA in only 1.5 years. The big four also pays for all your training and costs of the CPA test and if you pass it is pretty sure you will make manager.
Plus, I won’t hire anyone in accounting at a good level without having made at least manager in the big four or they spent at least 3-4 years there, the JOs who spend exactly 24 months to get the time and never made manager are worthless. If you last ten years big four you will be senior manager and can make decision to jump at 32 to industry or stay for partner track at 35. The best decision at 23 is to take the lower paying big four job. I worked eight years in Big four and had so many life experiences that I would not trade it for anything. You are in a club for life!!!
Look at CFO/Controller/GA jobs and you will see big four experience required. Your BS and CPA are nice but you need it all.
syncmaster Says:
December 17th, 2007 at 12:44 pm
Re accounting, RU has an accounting MBA – their site says the average starting salary for an RU accounting MBA is only 60k. Why the heck would you advertise that????
# 99 and bonuses in general. Or one can put the time and effort into law school and put up with those bonuses, thight as they may be for associates.
http://www.abovethelaw.com/associate_bonus_watch_2007/
Associate Bonus Watch: Wachtell Weighs In
(100 Percent Bonuses, Again? Where’s the Suspense in That?)
We have confirmed the rumor that has surfaced here and there in the comments: Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz once again paid year-end bonuses to its associates that were 100 percent of their base salaries (which are already above-market; starting salary at WLRK is $165,000). This is consistent with past practice; Wachtell has paid 100 percent bonuses for several years running now.
Due to the new “special bonus,” the gap between Wachtell associates and their counterparts at other top shops, while still large, isn’t as enormous as it has been in the past. But when you’re a senior associate taking home roughly $600,000, it’s not very gracious to complain.
pretorius Says:
December 17th, 2007 at 12:19 pm
How do you guys define making it in New Jersey?
Being able to spot a poser with vey little background information.
pretorius Says:
December 17th, 2007 at 12:19 pm
How do you guys define making it in New Jersey?
Being able to spot a poser with very little background information.
Top 10 U.S. Housing Markets Expected to Drop Composite 8% in 2008
http://seekingalpha.com/article/57558-top-10-u-s-housing-markets-expected-to-drop-composite-8-in-2008?source=feed
HEHEHE Says:
December 17th, 2007 at 11:43 am
Bush is on TV butchering the English language. Good news is he did not propose any additional housing programs.
H: I give credit where credit is due…he managed to get “Iranian uranium” off without a hitch…..
I heard they can use that to make newclar weapons.
Regarding Pre #84
The 2 paths to making it in NJ are to be a small business owner or work in the finance industry.
There are other ways of course (doctor, lawyer, accountant) but these paths require specific decisions to be made in late teens and early 20s.
I worked in big pharma. Very little upward mobility there even if you’re good, so I quit. If you want to stay in pharma, I believe you need to switch jobs every few years. That is the only way you can grow your income more than 5% per year.
Pretorious and I dont usually agree on much, but i am currently where he apparently used to be (stuck in big pharma)and i would agree with his assessment of big pharma. if you are an ambitious and intelligent individual i think that starting a business or going into finance are the most common ways of “expanding” your career. Even outside of pharma offering little advancement, it is a dieing industry in NJ. It looks like i have caome to the same conclusion as Pre; i plan to start working on becoming a quant as of this summer. I came to this decision after looking around at the avenues available and at which ones might actually be challenging and rewarding (yes i know i sound like a commercial).
However i am doing this blindly. given my timing i know that the financial market is entering a down trend, but my timing has me actually entering the financial market in about 2 years. I am aware that i will be playing in a high risk, high reward industry. For some people this is attractive, others prefer stability.
NAHB Housing Market Index falls a steep 7 points in the Northeast..
chicagofinance Says:
“H: I give credit where credit is due…he managed to get “Iranian uranium” off without a hitch…..”
Sounds like a Tom Lehrer song.
From NJBIZ:
Subprime Fiasco Claims New Victims
Fallout from the subprime mortgage crisis intensified in New Jersey last week even as bankers and borrowers pondered President Bush’s “Hope Now Alliance” plan to freeze rates on some troubled loans.
Mortgage lender Remi Home Loans closed its offices in Paterson, Union City, Plainfield and Elizabeth and consolidated operations at its headquarters in Hoboken. Remi Chairman Erik Kaiser said the company laid off about 70 people, including 50 commission-based sales agents, and now has 10 staffers and 20 sales agents.
“Hey, we are still afloat,” he says. “We are starting to turn around and we have seen most of the worst. We are not the end investors” in troubled loans, he adds. “A lot of times [end investors] are foreign banks.”
Kaiser says his loan portfolio has shrunk to $150 million from $211 million last year. He says sub-prime loans account for about 10 percent of the remaining portfolio.
Meanwhile, New Jersey’s home-foreclosure rate of 1.56 percent of loans made it the 24th hardest-hit area among the 50 states and Puerto Rico as of Sept. 30, according to the most recent figures from the National Delinquency Survey released two weeks ago by the Mortgage Bankers Association in Washington, D.C. The national average at the end of the third quarter was 1.69 percent.
New Jersey borrowers held nearly 140,000 subprime home loans, and 11.3 percent of mortgages facing foreclosure were “seriously delinquent” with payments overdue for 90 days or more, according to the survey.
“The trouble with mortgages is slowly starting to increase in New Jersey,” says Darla Keegan, a housing supervisor at Novadebt, a nonprofit credit counseling agency in Freehold. Keegan expects more clarity in about two weeks on how Bush’s Hope Now Alliance plan will work. Only then will her agency be able to direct qualified homeowners to lenders with requests to freeze interest rates, she says.
Across the country, “half of the small mortgage banking firms doing less than $200 million [in home loans] are out of business,” estimates Brian Moran, CEO of Neptune Issue Inc., a Morristown-based investor in small corporate loans and B- and C-grade debt. “By this time next year, another half will go out of business.”
Two weeks ago, Option One Mortgage Corp., which has sales agents in New Jersey, closed its Irvine, Calif., headquarters and its Orlando, Fla., and Houston offices, and laid off 620 employees nationwide. The company, a unit of H&R Block of Kansas City, Mo., will continue to service but has stopped originating loans.
“There are a lot of fire-sale portfolios out there,” Moran adds. “Banks that have already written down their loans are looking to sell them to hedge funds or scavenger investors who will buy them at a discount of 30 or 40 percent.”
Eric Kaiser is the guy who did Velocity, a busted condo development in Hoboken next to the projects.
Velocity was 2 years late so Eric had to return buyers’ deposits. Velocity is probably Hoboken’s best symbol of the condo market peak.
Eric is currently trying to turn Velocity into a rental.
edit…
However i am doing this blindly. given my timing i know that the financial market is entering a down trend, but my timing
am notdoing this blindly
HEHEHE Says:
December 17th, 2007 at 1:45 pm
I heard they can use that to make newclar weapons.
H: I think the correct phonetics are: NOOK-yah-ler
Anyone have an address for
MLS 2442556 in washington twnshp, morris county?
i dont know if it is njmls or garden state mls
pret-a-poser: just a question….why do you settle to live in a dense air particulate craphole above the Lincoln Tunnel? Why in the world would you not live in Hoboken?
At a certain point along the “making it” continuum, you have to stop focusing so much on the NPV, and start enjoying the fairer gender and other such lovely pret-a-manger.
ket,
63 Schooleys Mountain Rd
Memorandum to the blog
Re. Christmas present for the president.
I say this as a lifelong Republican who has ties to the president’s dad, but, does anyone want to go in with me to buy the president an “ing?” It is unfortunate that a man of his stature and education should have to go through life saying things like “goin,” “runnin,” “speakin.” I know times are tough and many of you may be overextended a bit with holiday shopping; however, the real spirit of the season is in giving (or “givin,” as the president recently said). So, please find it in your heart to contribute to the purchase and shipping of an “ing” to the president.
On whom may I count for support in this noble effort?
shore guy #116,
There’s a lot seriously wrong with the man, but what’s so wrong about an accent?
It is not about his accent, it is about his ennunciation.
Chicagofinance,
I don’t understand why so many of your posts spew negativity and insults.
Anyway, I’ll explain why I live in Weehawken, not Hoboken.
1. Opportunity to buy good real estate from very distressed seller.
2. Quicker commute by about 10 minutes each way. I really hate long commutes.
3. Same type of home with same amenities costs 25%-50% less in Weehawken.
4. I don’t need 10 bars and convenience stores within walking distance, only 2 or 3.
5. Parking a lot easier in Weehawken.
6. Weehawken governance – policing, schools, finances – is better. Did you notice the deal Weehawken’s mayor struck with Stevens?
By the way I lived in 2 different places in Hoboken so I know what I’m missing.
#99 John
I agree. I am at a top consulting firm. I will be making manager next year. Started at 50K, 5 years ago. 60K now is a good starting salary. These are some of the highest paying jobs out of college. If you can find something paying higher with a BS or BA then I would like to know. Try getting over 40K in NYC for any other job.
You also move up pretty quickly. I averaged about 15% a year with a mix of promotions, raises, bonuses. If you become a manager with a top 4 you are in a great spot (120K+). If you stay for the partner track you do not even need an MBA and can clear 250K easily your first year @ 35. If you really want to become a top partner, then yes, an MBA is very advantageous. I know partners in excess of 500K in mid 40’s without a Masters or MBA.
javascript:window.open(‘http://media.cnbc.com/i/CNBC/Sections/Video/CNBC_Live/player/cnbc_live.html?v=101’, ‘cnbc_live’, ‘width=350, height=375, status=no, toolbar=no, menubar=no, location=no’); void(0);
Paulson is currently discussing the foreclosure issue
HSBC/Citi and others have begun the process of bringing SIV assets onto their balance sheets as the liquidity mechanism allows these assets to be pledged,but it is clearly going to be another demand on balance sheet capacity — allowing
for the required haircuts — and should not prove to be a boon to risk appetite. It
does, however, help to address an issue that has been overhanging some of the banks.
As we have seen with supply, removing an overhang can be quite helpful.
TJ I agree. I started at 55K in big four as an experienced hire and lasted eight years with an average raise of 12% and left for a 30% raise. Yea you work your butt off night and day but just do the math and when you see pre-big four I was getting 4% raises and nine years of 4% raises would have done nothing for me. Problem is that a lot of co-workers from nine years ago are still in a rut the one or two I convinced to join me are now doing well. The rest are still doing the same old same old. If you are not born rich with connections or have a top tier MBA the best way forward is hard old fashioned big four work to earn your stripes.
From CNN/Money:
Fed to tighten up lending rules
The Federal Reserve on Tuesday will propose a much stricter set of rules for mortgage lenders as part of the central bank’s effort to avert abusive lending.
The proposed rules are expected to crack down on lax practices in a number of ways. Among them, the rules are likely to:
Prohibit giving people unaffordable loans. One reason for the spike in foreclosures among those with subprime adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) was that lenders measured borrowers’ ability to repay the loan based on the low introductory loan rate, but not on the higher rate that the loan would reset to. The Fed may propose that lenders base affordability on a borrowers’ ability to repay a loan at the reset rate.
Restrict use of ‘liar’ loans. The Fed is also expected to restrict the use of so-called “liar loans” or “stated income loans.” When lenders make such a loan, they don’t verify the income of the potential borrower. The end result: home buyers end up with homes they never could afford in the first place, let alone when their rate resets.
Prohibit or limit prepayment penalties. Homeowners who want to refinance into a more affordable loan are often prevented from doing so because of a punitive prepayment penalty – which can amount to the equivalent of six months of mortgage payments.
If the Fed doesn’t ban them outright, it may at least require that lenders waive any prepayment penalties for 60 days prior to a loan rate resetting.
Curb or better disclose broker incentives. To encourage brokers to bring in more business, lenders can pay a broker to lock-in customers at higher rates than they’d otherwise qualify for.
For example, a lender might pay brokers 1 percent of the loan amount for every half point of interest added to what’s known as the “par rate” – the rate the borrower would qualify for based on their credit score and other standards. This incentive is known as the “yield spread premium.”
…
Require or encourage escrowing of taxes and insurance. Subprime lenders often did not disclose the true cost of a home. They might have excluded home insurance and property taxes, for example. Nor did they collect taxes and insurance along with the mortgage payment and hold them in escrow for the borrower until they came due.
The Fed is likely at the very least to require all lenders to disclose the cost of insurance and taxes, if not also the collection of them with each mortgage payment for certain types of loans, according to reports in “American Banker.”
Require better disclosure overall. In a letter last week to Rep. Brad Miller (D-NC), Bernanke indicated that the Fed would propose rules to address incomplete or misleading mortgage ads and to require earlier and clearer disclosures by mortgage lenders so that “consumers avoid loans that are not in their interest.”
Congress has been considering its own crackdown on mortgage lenders with two bills the cover some of the same territory that the Fed is expected to cover but also go further.
#124
How bloody sad is it that we have gotten to the point when bankers have to be told to exercise the kind of caution one usually associates with (or at least used to)bankers?
SHore,
why be cautious when you know you are going to be bailed out by the FED??? it would be silly not to take the risk. you either make a lot of money or a little bit of money
pretorius Says:
December 17th, 2007 at 2:50 pm
Chicagofinance, I don’t understand why so many of your posts spew negativity and insults.
pose: For the record, in my book, you hurled possibly the most condescending and inappropriate insult in the history of these threads with your off-hand and dispassionate “middle manager” comment.
Yeah, people here routinely spit the provocative and profane, and the idiotic and vitriolic. However, your casual dismissal of intellectual and economic capital of NJ is unfortunate to the point of being tragic.
Further, your completely misinformed and biased view of NYC, its actors of all forms, and its overall relevence in the grand scheme, is patently naive, reckless, and full of hubris….and I LOVE NYC, it is the BEST THING EVER. Think about it.
Kettle,
Sad but true, and it all but guarantees that we will be back in the same position (if not worse) at some point in the next 20 years or so.
#125
the incentives are all screwed up because no one has any job security anymore. it is all about making as much money as you can while the opportunity presents itself.
TJ Says:
December 17th, 2007 at 2:55 pm
Teej: ….but you have to work with consultants
From the AP via Fool..
Delta Financial Files for Bankruptcy
Delta Financial Corp. filed its expected Chapter 11 bankruptcy Monday in Delaware, joining a group of failed mortgage lenders winding up their affairs under court protection.
The Woodbury, N.Y.-based lender had hoped for a rescue from hedge fund Angelo Gordon & Co., but was unable to meet a condition of the deal that required it to sell or refinance $500 million worth of loans.
Turmoil in the secondary mortgage market that buys packaged home loans produced by companies such as Delta has made buyers scarce. Notified by its warehouse lenders that it had defaulted, Delta said it would file for bankruptcy protection.
Shares in the company, selling at about $10 per share at the start of the year, fell to nine cents per share Monday, a sign investors think the bankruptcy will leave them with nothing.
As of Nov. 30, Delta held about $550 million worth of mortgage loans. The loans are collateral for debts owed to warehouse lenders, according to an affidavit filed with the bankruptcy petition by Chief Executive Hugh Miller.
Nice headline…..
Kaka completes virtual sweep of soccer awards
TJ RN 2 year degree 60K for days more for nights. But you have to work weekends :(
102:
Careful, CF. I’ve learned to spot poseurs by their 07030 ZIP code… ;)
(Present company excepted. Of course)
“Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the largest sources of finance for American mortgages, may help “jump start” the market for the largest home loans.”
“Paulson said in an interview today that he favors temporarily allowing the two companies to purchase so-called jumbo loans, which exceed $417,000. He said the proposal should be part of a package of legislative changes governing the two government chartered companies.”
“Ofheo Director James Lockhart last week said the regulator will begin considering the removal of a 30 percent excess reserve capital rule when the companies release 2007 results in February as a way of giving them freer rein for making loans.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aax4zzPqV9dk&refer=home
kind of noticed the vitriol has been turned up a notch here lately. changing economic times bringing on stress maybe? whatever the cause, disagreement is good and needn’t turn personal
Chicagofinance 127,
Are you commenting on my post 64? Didn’t seem like the “most condescending and inappropriate insult in the history of these threads.”
You are right about one thing though – I’m bearish about the future of NJ at the same time I’m bullish about the future of New York City.
This view is based in part on my experience working in each place’s key industry, pharma in NJ and finance in NY. NY remains internationally competitive in finance and continues to attract this industry’s best and brightest. In addition, the city has been moving in the right direction during the last decade in terms of governance.
I’ve witnessed NJ move in the opposite direction thought. For example, NJ pharma companies can’t attract top scientists to the state anymore. In order hire talent, these firms are forced to acquire smaller companies based in Boston or on the West Coast, or build new labs in those locations. Meanwhile, even though plenty of corrupt pols are going into prisons, it doesn’t feel like governance is really improving in this state.
#137
Pret,
I suspect that it would take massive consolidation of the numerous small towns in NJ (check out the statistics for Loch Arbor, for instance) and a reduction in the number of taxing entities, boards, commissions etc., in order to get some handle on the tax issue (and, likely, the corruption issue as well).
pretorius Says:
December 17th, 2007 at 5:33 pm
Chicagofinance 127, Are you commenting on my post 64? Didn’t seem like the “most condescending and inappropriate insult in the history of these threads.”
pret-a-poseur (thank you Jamey): it was the NJ middle manager nonsense from earlier this month or November…
pretorius Says:
December 17th, 2007 at 5:33 pm
Chicagofinance 127,You are right about one thing though – I’m bearish about the future of NJ at the same time I’m bullish about the future of New York City.
pret-a-poseur: have you ever heard of cycles?
LET US ADJUST THIS POST….
December 17th, 1994 at 5:33 pm
You are right about one thing though – I’m bearish about the future of NYC at the same time I’m bullish about the future of New Jersey.
This view is based in part on my experience working in each place’s key industry, finance in NY and pharma in NJ. NJ remains internationally competitive in pharma and continues to attract this industry’s best and brightest. In addition, the state has been moving in the right direction during the last decade in terms of governance.
I’ve witnessed NY move in the opposite direction thought. For example, NY financial companies can’t attract top talent to the state anymore. In order hire talent, these firms are forced to acquire smaller companies based in Boston, Chicago, London or on the West Coast, or build new offices in those locations. Meanwhile, even though plenty of corrupt pols are going into prisons, it doesn’t feel like governance is really improving in the city.
Chicago,
What is your point? Do you think NJ is set for a rebound or NY is about to fall?
Anyone notice Vanguard Index’s huge two digits drop???? Any cause those drop?
ML
Time for a seasonal greeting, huh, skep?
http://www.ronsaari.com/stockImages/newJersey/PrincetonPalmerSquareM.php
#142 If the movement in Vanguard Index was not due to market action it probably involves a capital gains payout. This makes the NAV (net asset value) of the fund go down, but doesn’t have anything to do with actual losses.
LMAO!!!
From someone posting at CR:
“One little-known tragedy of the housing crash is the number of developers, realtors and mortgage brokers can no longer afford herpes treatments. When they said real estate was getting ugly, who knew they meant it literally?”
OMG, I’m still laughing… LOL!!
pretorius Says:
December 17th, 2007 at 6:05 pm
Chicago,What is your point? Do you think NJ is set for a rebound or NY is about to fall?
pret-a-poseur: just because you see many examples of something, don’t mistake its importance or ubiquity
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Availability_heuristic
ML, it’s because of capital gains distributions at Vanguard’s active funds. None of the index funds have capital gains distribution, including their S&P500 index fund.
http://tinyurl.com/2d2j27 is a list of detailed distributions.
ML Says:
December 17th, 2007 at 7:47 pm
Anyone notice Vanguard Index’s huge two digits drop???? Any cause those drop?
ML
this time of year, most likely a dividend
325 KUDLOW says inflation is over rated.
Regarding appliances:
We got GE Profile for cooktop, dishwasher, and microhood. We got GE (non-Profile) for the wall ovens… the Profile line had two convection ovens which bumped the price considerably. I want to replace it with a TurboChef when the price comes down so I didn’t want to go nuts this time around :)
We have been in love with the Whirpool Duet washers for a long time, but we read online and in Consumer Reports that they are very noisy and they vibrate a lot. Most said not to get them if your laundry is on the second floor as it rattles through the floor and you can hear them downstairs all day long. So we are going to get the LG Tromm instead. So “most” of our appliances are at least built by a US conglomerate, excepting the washer and dryer. :)
BH
#90,
Citi CDO group is getting the ax tomorrow.
20: chifi:
We don’t actually live in Eatontown :) We’re exit 117 on the GSP… Aberdeen Matawan station on the NJCL. Know any good Chinese food around there?
Get this, when we lived in Michigan we had great “American” Chinese food. Loved the stuff. We moved to California and in a 30 mile radius we had one Chinese joint where we could both stand the type of dishes and the standard to which it was prepared, and thousands of places that we couldn’t. We thought moving to CA would be awesome for Chinese food… I guess it depends on what you are used to :)
BH
3b, Crudelow does not have time to write checks for his groceries, insurance premiums and does not drive. Can we expect any better from him?
Chifi,
I know all about those heuristics because they’re part of the CFA test. I still think it is useful to illustrate a point with an anecdote though.
I would like to hear your opinion on the direction of New York and New Jersey during the next, say, 10 years. What is your outlook?
WTF is “heuristics”. You sure know some big words there guy!
#152,
The Malaysian place right by the train station is good.
#153 Of course not!! I am just amazed he is spouting his nonsense. Oh and he refers to the housing situaation as a headache!!
You would think it would warrant at least a fever.
Corzine abolishes NJ Capital Punishment, which has not occurred since 1963, and was declared unconstitutional in NJ in 2004, anyway. Evidently, this was to convince future Heinous Criminals & Terrorist’s that NJ was a safer State to attack, then NY. Be interesting to see if 9/11 Part II occurs here, preferably in Trenton, if the remaining Legislators continue to hold that view.
TRENTON — Gov. Jon S. Corzine signed into law a measure repealing New Jersey’s death penalty on Monday, making the state the first in a generation to abolish capital punishment.
Mr. Corzine also issued an order commuting the sentences of the eight men on New Jersey’ death row to life in prison with no possibility of parole, ensuring that they will stay behind bars for the rest of their lives.
In an extended and often passionate speech from his office at the state capitol, Mr. Corzine declared an end to what he called “state-endorsed killing,” and said that New Jersey could serve as a model for other states.
“Today New Jersey is truly evolving,” he said. “I believe society first must determine if its endorsement of violence begets violence, and if violence undermines our commitment to the sanctity of life. To these questions, I answer yes.”
New Jersey has not executed anyone since 1963, when Ralph Hudson was put to death in the electric chair for stabbing of his estranged wife.
In 1982, six years after the United States Supreme Court allowed states to start executing prisoners again, New Jersey re-established its death penalty. It switched its method of execution to lethal injection and built a new execution chamber at the New Jersey State Prison here, where death row is housed.
While juries have sentenced more than four dozen people to death since then, the vast majority of those sentences were overturned on appeal. And even if the state had wanted to follow through with an execution, it would not have been able to.
A state appeals court ruled in 2004 that New Jersey’s procedures for administering the death penalty were unconstitutional. The state rewrote the procedures but never finalized them, and they expired in 2005.
The process of abolishing the death penalty moved forward at an unusually fast pace. A bill replacing capital punishment with life in prison with no chance of parole first passed a Senate committee in May, but did not advance any further until this month. Leaders of both chambers in state Legislature made the bill a top priority of the current legislative session, and vowed after the November elections to vote on the issue before the end of the year.
In less than two weeks, the bill passed the state Senate and General Assembly and was signed by the governor.
Confused (158)-
“The process of abolishing the death penalty moved forward at an unusually fast pace. A bill replacing capital punishment with life in prison with no chance of parole first passed a Senate committee in May, but did not advance any further until this month. Leaders of both chambers in state Legislature made the bill a top priority of the current legislative session, and vowed after the November elections to vote on the issue before the end of the year.
In less than two weeks, the bill passed the state Senate and General Assembly and was signed by the governor.”
Since Trenton is unable to tackle issues of real importance to large groups of free, working, contributing citizens, all we get is feelgood crap like this. Of course, this useless legislation- outlawing a criminal punishment that’s already been rendered moot by the courts- flies through with nary a dissent.
Big whoop: the Vatican lit up the Colosseum in Rome, in honor of the bill’s signature into law.
Knowing NJ, the Vatican probably stuck us with the power bill for the lights.
(158)-
“Mr. Corzine declared an end to what he called “state-endorsed killing,” and said that New Jersey could serve as a model for other states.
“Today New Jersey is truly evolving,” he said.”
Evolving?
Are we not men? We are Devo!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Devo.JPG
Fourth quarter of Knicks-Pacers and vicious booing have commenced simultaneously.
MSG fans seem to be calling for death penalty for Isiah.
Frank Says:
December 17th, 2007 at 8:38 pm
#152,
The Malaysian place right by the train station is good.
Frank,
You have to be kidding me. The first and last time I ever ate there, I had some sort of peanut curry dish that tasted like someone had rubbed my tongue for a solid 15 minutes with 50 grit sandpaper.
No thank- you!
afe
#150 – BuyingH
good call on the whirlpool washer –
i have a whirlpool dishwasher and it’s sooooo noisy!
[158] Confused:
You know, I agree with Corzine…get rid of the damn death penalty…
It’s a money suck with lawyers in a feeding frenzy on both sides working like Pirahnas on submerged legs…
I have never lost a loved one to a vicious crime, so I don’t know how I’d feel had I been directly affected.
But as non-involved bystander, it sure seems like we would all be better served by condemning a convict to life w/o parole.
(And then slipping them a little something “noxious” in their lunch :)
Seriously it’s like the legal circus starts as soon as someone is sentenced to death.
And look at all the money we spent on the death penalty (special prison cells, security, gas chamber, courts, lawyers, etc) since it was re-instated and we never even put anyone to death…sigh.
Ask bi how much he thinks we could get for the gas chamber? You think it’s still going up a good 10% a year? What do the comps look like? :)
[159] Clot:
(giggle…so true.)
Corzine abolishes NJ Capital Punishment
This is just another example of the arrogance of our state government. While I personally don’t have a strong opinion one way or the other on the death penalty, most voters want the option available for at least the most heinous of crimes; child killers, terrorists etc.
What really gets me is the fact that NJ citizens are pleading for tax relief. People and businesses are leaving the state in droves. Our state is in deep debt. And we are probably staring down the barrel of a recession, which will only compound our problems.
Instead of taking on these issues like Corzine promised (remember the speech where…”all 800 pound gorillas, third rails and sacred cows are on the table”), his priorities have shifted to championing liberal social issues that are of interest to him such as stem cell research, the death penalty and passing resolutions against global warming. Many of these issues don’t even have the support of the majority of NJ’s citizens.
clot:
I’ll take potatoes with heads sticking out of toilet seats….
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/6/6f/DevoOhNoItsDevo.jpg
#144, #147, #148,
Thanks a lot for your information! Phew!
BuyingH Says:
December 17th, 2007 at 8:04 pm
20: chifi:We don’t actually live in Eatontown :) We’re exit 117 on the GSP… Aberdeen Matawan station on the NJCL. Know any good Chinese food around there?
BH
BH: according to Zagat’s
West Lake Seafood Restaurant
Pine Crest Plaza | 1016 Rte. 34 | (Garden State Pkwy., exit 120) | Matawan, NJ 07743 | 732-290-2988
That “many customers order from the Chinese language menu” is a sign that this Matawan BYO is serving “exquisitely pure” Cantonese selections, especially “fresh” seafood you “select from one of the fish tanks”; some say it offers one of the more “authentic” experiences in the area.
FYI IN MY BOOK AUTHENTIC CHINESE = SALT