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Save the Date!
We’ll be meeting up on Saturday, February 9th in Morristown NJ.
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This is the time and place to post observations about your local areas, comments on news stories or the New Jersey housing market, open house reports, etc. If you have any questions you wanted to ask earlier in the week but never posted them up, let’s have them. Also a good place to post suggestions, requests for information, criticism, and praise.
For readers that have never commented, there is a link at the top of each message that is typically labelled “[#] Comments“. Go ahead and give that a click, you might be missing out on a world of information you didn’t know about. While you are there, introduce yourselves to everyone.
For new readers that have only read the messages displayed on the main page, take a look through the archives, a substantial amount of information has been put online in the past year. The archives can be accessed by using the links found in the menus on the right hand side of the page.
From the New York Times:
Planning for Newark’s Next Big Step: An Apartment Tower Near the Arts Center
An impressive cultural complex in the heart of this down-and-out city? They said it could not be done, but Lawrence P. Goldman, the man behind the New Jersey Performing Arts Center, proved them wrong.
Now, 10 years after he cut the ribbon on the $187 million arts center, Mr. Goldman, its president, is selling another dream: a shimmering tower opposite the arts center that would bring downtown Newark its first new residential construction in at least four decades.
On Thursday, Mr. Goldman and a Philadelphia developer announced plans for a $150 million mixed-use project that would include retail space, indoor parking and up to 300 market-rate rental apartments, 20 percent of them reserved for artists whose rents would be subsidized.
From the Home News Tribune:
Warnings voiced on N.J. debt
The top economic priority for local and state lawmakers this year is maintaining the attractiveness of the high-cost Garden State, even as residents face a national economy on the brink of recession, experts and business leaders said Thursday.
At the first annual Central Jersey Economic Outlook forum at Rutgers University’s Douglass Campus Center, business executives and two prominent academics agreed that the public needs to press legislators to reduce swelling deficits and enact aggressive business policies to keep residents living, working — and spending — in New Jersey.
“If we don’t, and they won’t, we are postponing for a short time the financial Armageddon that is before us,” said Steve Kalafer, chairman of Flemington Car & Truck Country and owner of the Somerset Patriots. “And make no mistake, it is front and center.”
…
James Hughes, dean of the Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy, reminded the crowd that New Jersey boasts one of the country’s largest concentration of knowledge-based jobs, beating the national average in occupations related to professional and business services, information technology and financial activities such as real estate firms.
But, he cautioned, the rest of the nation is catching up.
Although New Jersey consistently ranks near the top of surveys measuring population density, diversity, level of education, household income, mass transit usage, and warehouse and office space, Hughes said, “our enviable economic position is eroding.”
The culprits? Hughes said employment has refused to grow at the rate of expansion, especially in the state’s core sectors. According to one recent measure, New Jersey managed to add only 24,300 nonagricultural jobs through November 2007, about 5,600 fewer jobs when compared with a similar period a year earlier.
The numbers prompted Nancy H. Mantell, director of the Rutgers Economic Advisory Service, to proclaim that the state is “caught in the economic doldrums.”
Joseph Seneca, another economics guru at Rutgers, blamed high energy prices and the subprime mortgage crisis, among other factors, for slowing the state’s job growth. Seneca and Hughes also pointed to New Jersey’s highest-in-the-nation property taxes for consuming a disproportionate amount of income.
“The question really is not whether there will be a consumer crunch, but will it lead to an economywide recession,” Hughes said.
From Bloomberg:
MBIA, Ambac Bond Default Risk Exceeds 70%, Swaps Show
MBIA Inc. and Ambac Financial Group Inc., the two biggest bond insurers, have a more than 70 percent chance of going bankrupt, credit-default swaps show.
…
“In this market, a downgrade could mean the beginning of that company’s eventual collapse,” said Matt Fabian, an analyst with Municipal Market Advisors in Westport, Connecticut. While Fabian said he still expects the companies to keep their rankings, he said he has grown “much more anxious.”
The bond insurers place their AAA stamp on $2.4 trillion of debt sold by thousands of municipalities across the country, as well as subprime-mortgage securities. Losing those rankings may cost borrowers and investors as much as $200 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
From CNN/Money:
WaMu accused of appraisal fraud
A former real estate appraiser for Washington Mutual is suing the bank, claiming she was blacklisted last year for providing a housing market forecast that was too gloomy.
Jeniffer Wertz, who is seeking unspecified damages, says WaMu stopped accepting her appraisals in mid-2007 a month after she reported that her local housing market in California was “declining.”
…
the lawsuit, which was filed a week ago, Wertz says she completed appraisals on two houses in May and then quickly got a call from a WaMu sales manager demanding she change her outlook to “stable” so a loan could be approved.
The WaMu sales manager also demanded Wertz change her appraisal process to produce higher prices for the properties she was evaluating, according to Wertz’s lawyer Stephen Danz. The higher an appraisal comes out, the more likely it is a home loan will get approved.
When Wertz refused to comply, she claims the sales manager threatened to block her from doing future appraisal work for the bank. A month later, Wertz’s suit says, a third-party appraisal request assigner told her WaMu would no longer accept her work.
From the AP:
Industry Turmoil Slams Washington Mutual
Turmoil in the mortgage and credit markets in the second half of 2007 decimated Washington Mutual Inc.’s fourth-quarter performance and dragged the country’s largest savings and loan into the red for the year.
WaMu had been preparing Wall Street for the hit, caused by the plummeting value of its mortgage portfolio and the growing number of people who can’t repay their debts, since December.
The year was so bad that Kerry Killinger, WaMu’s chief executive officer, said in a conference call Thursday he would not accept a bonus.
And then he told analysts that 2008 won’t be much better.
…
“Clearly, the current downturn in housing is acute and deeper than expected. We continue to see declining home prices, elevated inventories of unsold homes and increased foreclosure activity,” Killinger said, particularly in California and Florida, where WaMu’s mortgage customers are concentrated.
…
But it was WaMu’s credit card division results and outlook that most surprised Shapiro. WaMu said card services net income sank 35 percent to $92 million in the quarter. Killinger said rising unemployment pushed up delinquency rates and credit losses.
From the NYT:
Don’t Cry for Me, America
Mexico. Brazil. Argentina. Mexico, again. Thailand. Indonesia. Argentina, again.
And now, the United States.
The story has played itself out time and time again over the past 30 years. Global investors, disappointed with the returns they’re getting, search for alternatives. They think they’ve found what they’re looking for in some country or other, and money rushes in.
But eventually it becomes clear that the investment opportunity wasn’t all it seemed to be, and the money rushes out again, with nasty consequences for the former financial favorite. That’s the story of multiple financial crises in Latin America and Asia. And it’s also the story of the U.S. combined housing and credit bubble. These days, we’re playing the role usually assigned to third-world economies.
…
The global origins of our current mess were actually laid out by none other than Ben Bernanke, in an influential speech he gave early in 2005, before he was named chairman of the Federal Reserve. Mr. Bernanke asked a good question: “Why is the United States, with the world’s largest economy, borrowing heavily on international capital markets — rather than lending, as would seem more natural?”
Wow – What a week of reading…
The more I know, the more I know I do not know.
#3 Clot – 1/17
“Inevitably, much of the denial, despair, and uncertainty of my clients has bled into me.” Got a taste yesterday..lost a student to foreclosure. Many numbers thrown around -thanks for addressing the human toll being exacted.
We are currently working with many families of homeless students. Expect to see more. Many are losing rental housing. The havoc is insidious. The new “trickle down effect.”
It is hard to teach a kid to read when all they can think about is where they are going to sleep that night.
From Thomson Financial:
UBS plans investment banking revamp, job cuts
UBS confirmed reports that said the bank has launched a shake-up of its investment banking division to reduce proprietary risk-taking after suffering heavy losses in the US subprime mortgage meltdown.
In an internal UBS memo, which has since been obtained by Thomson Financial News, CEO Marcel Rohner said the bank will halve the number of employees in its real estate and securitisation businesses from peak numbers of last August.
The majority of these job cuts are included in the preciously announced 1,500 cull, a UBS spokeswoman said.
However, she added that planned restructuring measures might lead to further gradual cuts in future.
From the New York Times:
Sorting Out the New Housing Market
The shape of the new American housing market — the post-bubble market — is starting to emerge. It is one that favors the young who never owned a house and the banks that have access to cheap deposits. It may be harshest on the two coasts, where both distress and a newfound lack of mobility may be on the increase.
The ideal home buyer now — in a reverse of what was true for years — is a renter who is not burdened with a house. Such a buyer will need a down payment from somewhere, and he or she will need enough income to meet the monthly payments for the foreseeable future, including any increase in adjustable rates that seems probable.
But not owning a home, which may be hard to sell, is a big plus.
A year ago, having a home that had appreciated in value meant that an owner could trade up to a more expensive home. Now it means that the homeowner cannot move until the old home is sold, and that is getting more difficult.
First, the seller has to find a buyer who can get a mortgage. Second, the price has to be high enough to pay off the old mortgage and leave enough cash for the down payment on a new home. Both were taken for granted a year ago. In many markets, neither is a sure thing now.
That has created a daisy chain of delays and cancellations that has frustrated builders, homeowners and real estate agents.
Selling one house depends on the buyer’s selling another house, and that deal in turn depends on yet another sale, and so on and so on.
A failure to get a mortgage approved at any stop along the way can halt the sales of an entire series of homes.
The loss of mobility stems from the fact that homeowners with houses worth less than they owe can find themselves unable to move to accept a job in a different city.
Looks like we might get a day of short-covering in the markets. Options expiration. GE in-line with expectations, too.
What a week. I can’t remember having stopped out of so much, or had so many buys triggered.
OTOH, there are some tasty issues out there that got taken out and shot this week. Maybe time to open some new positions…
All disclaimers. I am a gold bug and follow an investment strategy that is commonly employed by doomsday theorists and other fringe lunatics.
Nowhere to hide…Paulson on the Today Show, talking bread & circuses for the sheeple. You can almost hear the helicopters warming up in the background.
He looks more like Daddy Warbucks every time I see him.
Ugh! Gotta turn off the Today Show. Paulson followed by Huckabee, who reminds me of Hitler.
Oh, ‘the other guy’?
Where is my stimulus debit card anyway?
Prez campaign reminds me of The Real World…with adults.
Alleged adults, that is.
#3…Cramer on CNBC talking about Ambac and MBIA:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=624755222
Good morning boys, Wish I had the funds (#10) Learned another lesson (lots of lessons)..Paying down debt is great but keep some cash on hand stupid! Could have bought some of that “poor man’s” gold.
Bobby Fischer dies
Meth addicts across the country excited this morning having heard that President Bush plans to distribute $800 worth of stimulants to every man, woman, and child in our great country (illegals too). Also rumored this morning that heroin addicts have lawyered up and are planning a discrimination lawsuit.
In other news, the “stimulus debit card” that will be distributed will automatically turn into a credit card upon depletion of the balance (without notification). APR is set at 32%, no credit limit. Also available are 401k (gold), IRA (silver), and HELOC (platinum) variants.
Bear Stearns and Lehman are both introducing a new securitization vehicle this afternoon, PLBS (Payday loan backed securities). Bear’s fund will be called the: Ultra prime grade super duper good credit fund, Lehman’s fund will be traded under the ICBTCIAAA moniker (I can’t believe cr*p is AAA).
From MSNBC
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22705772/
Biggest drop in new homebuilding in 27 years
Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Economy.com ….“I think this housing downturn will be unprecedented in terms of its breadth across the country and in its severity,” Zandi said. “I don’t think we have seen anything like this, certainly since the Great Depression, and back then housing was much less of a factor in terms of the overall economy because fewer people owned their own homes.”
I not sure how to link – I hope this works.
grim (18)-
I heard they were going to be gift cards.
That way, the balance has to be spent instead of saved.
Morning everyone. Can somebody please give me some information (address, DOM, OLP, etc.) for #2744065? Thanks!
bewm,
43 E Prospect
MLS# 2716912
Listed: 4/30/2007
OLP: $469,900
Reduced: $409,000
DOM: 185
Expired
MLS# 2744065
Listed: 10/31/2007
OLP: $389,000
Reduced: $364,000
DOM: 78
7 Cindy,
Wow, that’s sad.
#22 grim
As usual, thank you very much!
Clot,
I’ll get the storefront, you set up the legal.
Cash advances backed by stimulus debit cards, if the payday guys can do it, and the tax guys can do it, I’m going to get mine too.
Fee will be 30%. With a 1% penetration rate across the state, and an estimated $500 per person, we should be able to clear $10 million.
Wow, am I calculating that right — it’s 22% off it’s OLP?
if you looked at the market yesterday closely, you would notice that homebuilders were amazingly strong despite of weakest constructions numbers in 27 years and that energy stocks hit harder than general market. it is a good indicatin that housing recession is behind us.
#14 #18 #20 #25…See why a person can get addicted to reading you guys…
You’re cracking me up this morning.
9 New York Times article
“A year ago, having a home that had appreciated in value meant that an owner could trade up to a more expensive home. Now it means that the homeowner cannot move until the old home is sold, and that is getting more difficult.”
Oh please NYT. The buyers uppers are the LAST people I have any sympathy for.
Everyone I saw who was trying to buy up were the greediest people ever. They bought in 97, were in their forties, and wanted a 400K appreciation on their POS so they could move into their dream Barbie Mansion.
They could sell if they wanted to, but their prices are totally unrealistic and they secretly have no urgency. Biggest wastes of my time. They were so cocky that they wouldn’t even leave the friggin’ house so we could have a proper showing. Little did they know that their big greedy mugs and rug rats made their tiny houses look 10X worse.
They can all go rot. They have a house they bought for cheap, they should stay there. Or sell it at the market price (i.e. the price that someone is willing to give you for it) and go rent if you have to in the interim. They all think they are a big bunch of wheeler-dealers and they are wasting everyone’s time.
Rant over.
Grim 29 in moderation?
it is a good indicatin that housing recession is behind us.
Apparently, the goverment has been handing out hallucinogens too.
#30 – see what I mean…What a way to start your day..
grim (25)-
Who said there were no entreprenuers on this board?
You know there is a writer’s strike here in California….Leno would pay big bucks for this stuff..
Ann (29)-
You’re becoming the female Gary.
What’s the XX way of describing the classic “cabbage-smelling crapbox”?
I heard the tax rebate ideas were presented, to Bush, by the bookies in the Cayman’s. They are jumping thru hoops, trying to get this into Joe 6 Pack’s hand before the Super Bowl.
No link;
President Bush is set to reveal today an economic stimulus proposal of up to $150 billion that may add a short-term boost to the economy. The plan , which is subject to revision, will include $800 rebates for individuals and $1600 for households as well as tax breaks to encouage businesses to invest. The plan will include a temporary elimination of the bottom tax rate, which is now 10%, and a consequent lump-sum rebate to all taxpayers. Businesses would get a tax break that would allow them to deduct 50% of the price of new equipment they purchase this year. Small businesses would be able to deduct as much as $200,000 in equipment purchases, up from $112,000 now. Fed Chairman Bernanke said yesterday that fiscal stimulus of as much as $150 billion would help revive economic growth, but also warned against any widening of the budget deficit in coming years. The Fed Chairman’s acknowledgment that the economy is weak enough to need stimulus nearly cements market expec tations of a 50 bp rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting
Cindy (34)-
Nah. Leno works clean. All the humor here is either just plain vile, demented or aimed at some poor, unwitting victim.
Wouldn’t last a day in CA.
“it is a good indicatin that housing recession is behind us.”
Don’t look at what is behind you. Better yet, if you drop your keys, don’t bend down to pick them up.
(37) Clotpoll – Sad thing is..it would be “over our heads”….
BC (36)-
You could leverage that $800 another 20% at any offshore internet casino, using their special Super Bowl week promos.
Then, take the whole megillah, and lay it on the Pats. Personal financial problem solved.
Woo hoo!
Now, I’ve got to figure out a way to steal my wife’s $800…
Clot (40)
“special Super Bowl week promos”…ah man, you’re killing me here…
Can’t wait ’til the PPT delivers my loot. I’ll have to put my Super Bowl gambit on the CC.
Clotpoll #20.
Home Depot gift cards? Or perhaps $800 off your nearest foreclosure?
I’m spending mine of strippers and booze.
Is there any better way to celebrate the bacchanalian credit orgy that has defined this country over the past 5 years?
Clot,
You can buy approx 2 oz of gold, if you steal your wife’s $800. In 5-6 years when gold is $2,000, you may be able to go to Applebee’s and buy a burger and a beer. Hopefully, there is a little left over for some Prozac.
35 Clot, perhaps!
Here’s my Irish mothers take:
“May they suffer from gout may their grinders fall out, may they roar ball and shout with a horrid toothache, may their temples grow horns and all their toes corns, like the monster that murdered nell flahertys drake.”
GGEEEEZZZZ- now you’ve got me in an all-out belly laugh…Maybe Letterman?
Let’s just send it all to China, they have not been very supportive lately.
No link;
Chinese Net Purchases of Treasuries
in billions of dollars
2002 34.1
2003 47.9
2004 77.4
2005 84.9
2006 63.2
2007 -4.1
Chinese Purchases As A Percentage
of New Treasuries Issued
2002 12.7%
2003 11.8
2004 21.3
2005 29.6
2006 35.8
2007 – 2.5 (through Sept. 30th)
With the 800 bucks, I plan to celebrate Christmas again and make it up to the retailers for being such a naughty, thrifty consumer this year.
grim strippers and booze will make those evening walks more interesting
BC (46)-
A regular modern-day Weimar. Or, perhaps, Zimbabwe:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/worldnews.html?in_article_id=508840&in_page_id=1811
Want fries with that? Supersize?
I want strippers and booze at the get-together.
Will settle for booze, though.
but seriously, how does a one hit wonder of $800 really help a country going into a recession? Isn’t it just going to cause a dead cat bounce? What is the logic here, get people further in the hole as they get a taste for spending again?
“May they suffer from gout may their grinders fall out, may they roar ball and shout with a horrid toothache, may their temples grow horns and all their toes corns, like the monster that murdered nell flahertys drake.”
Ann,
Go mbeannaí Dia duit
kiwi (54)-
“but seriously, how does a one hit wonder of $800 really help a country going into a recession?”
Why does the junkie going into rehab always want one last fix?
No free lunch people.
If it was so easy to “stimulate” the economy without long-term penalties, those “stimuli” would be standard practice.
Giving $800 to everyone doesn’t make anyone a penny more wealthy.
Why not just give everyone $1,000,000. We’ll be a country of millionaires, right? McMansions for everyone.. Right?
No free lunch. Giving $800 to everyone has the same long term effect of giving $0 to everyone.
“McMansions for everyone.. Right?”
Why not? There’s enough of them empty. Here take my house, just pay my taxes.
grim (57)-
And Bernanke is non-partisan and non-political.
If this wasn’t an election year, the $800 sheeple-bribe wouldn’t even be on the table.
Can’t we just put the jobless to work building homes for the homeless?
Problem solved!
BC (58)-
I’ll take a tax certificate on that empty house, and let someone pay ME.
Actually, although not possible in the “Me Society”, if people would “Mail back the Check with a Note, “Pay the National Debt Stupid””!, it actually could do some good.
grim (60)-
Why break a sweat building more houses, when we’ve got 2.1 million vacant ones that won’t sell? Warehouse the homeless in them.
Inventory reduced, prices up, market saved!
Confused (62)-
You go first.
# 20 “heard they were going to be gift cards.
That way, the balance has to be spent instead of saved.”
It won’t matter. Since money is fungible, anyone who wants to save it will just take cash out of their wallet and sock it away and then use the card for something they were going to buy with cash anyway.
# 36 You just have to love Section 179 deductions!
I’d like to know how they arrived at these numbers? Is $800 or $1600 some kind of median mortgage payment equivalent? I don’t get it.
55 BCBob
Here’s one for all you renters…
“May your pockets be heavy and your heart be light,
May good luck pursue you each morning and night”
For lll those living beneath their means..
“May your home always be too small to hold all your friends.
God is good, but never dance in a small boat.”
And finally, one for the drinkers:
“There are many good reasons for drinking,
One has just entered my head.
If a man doesn’t drink when he’s living,
How in the hell can he drink when he’s dead?”
Today is going to be fun!!! PPT was all over me an hour ago. Throughput, cap and vol rolling into a three day weekend in a wild market. PPT better be doing their thing today.
C’mon GE!
I’m going to save the money and give it back when my taxes go up after (shudder) Hilary gets in. (I have my fingers crossed as I write this.)
#66 -lostinny..single – mort. $807.14 mo.
#67 – Ann..I had to write those down. Thanks
“PPT better be doing their thing today.”
John,
Options expiration, 3 day weekend and a short market. What better timing ,turn the lights on in that Caribbean trading office. Suckers rally. Tonight, Crudelow will praise Bush, the market loved the stimulus plan.
If the expired protection does not get rolled into Feb, it could be ugly next Tuesday.
All disclaimers.
“Who said there were no entreprenuers on this board?”
I have a great idea. Why don’t get get a hold of a few SIV prospectus. We can look at the properties and work out what they are really worth and sell the valuation back to the banks.
We could define the model as “Mark to Main Street”
Kiwi,
regarding the $800; if you are not familiar with the term “bread&circus” then wiki it, because that is all the $800 is!!!
Thankfully, that $800 will just about cover the inflation that will be generated by giving everyone $800.
grim Says:
January 18th, 2008 at 9:00 am
Thankfully, that $800 will just about cover the inflation that will be generated by giving everyone $800.
very nice
From Wikipedia:
“Bread and circuses” is a phrase that can criticize either government policies to pacify the citizenry, or the shallow, decadent desires of that same citizenry. In both cases, it refers to low-cost, low-quality, high-availability food and entertainment that have become the sole concern of the People, to the exclusion of matters that some consider more important: e.g. the Arts, public works projects, human rights, or democracy itself. The phrase is commonly used to refer to short-term government palliatives offered in place of a solution for significant, long-term problems.
Hunter now requests Depeche Mode….
my work is done….
Grim #45,
I’m spending mine of strippers and booze.
Just promise me you’ll wait until the March/April “Get Together”.
#73
Interesting proposition, shall we form the NJ Vulture Group LLC ???
grim: I vote to rename the blog….NJ Bread and Circuses
# 75
And then there is the interest we will pay on the cost of the $ borrowed to create and manage the program and to fund the “benefit.” This is like borrowing money to pay for food while using current eranings to fund cable TV and the health club. If they go down this path, it should be funded with cuts to existing programs.
chicagofinance Says:
January 18th, 2008 at 9:03 am
grim: I vote to rename the blog….NJ Bread and Circuses
or maybe…. Chip Grim and the Passaic Street Band
Ann [29],
I love it!!
I say we form an LLC/partnership, pool all of our $800 checks and then short the $%@# out of real estate and with half while buying gold/silver with he other!
Green Bay affiliate ynaks Seinfeld
http://www.nypost.com/seven/01182008/news/regionalnews/hail_mary_jerry_548960.htm
With all this talk about what people are going to do with their checks, I feel like Charlie Brown at Halloween: “I got a rock.”
Maybe I can get a loan for $800 and put it in a CD so I can come out that much more ahead than I was before.
From Reuters:
Housing could be gateway to broader debt distress
The U.S. housing market crash has exposed the mortgage industry’s suspect lending standards, and investors now fear credit cards, car loans, and student debt could be the next sectors to unravel.
If proof of income was shrugged off as a nuisance on home loans, lenders may have been even less scrupulous in other areas of consumer finance, and the eagerness to increase profits may have clouded their assessment of risk.
“Investors are increasingly wondering whether consumer credit is the next shoe to drop,” said Stephen Gallagher, chief U.S. economist at Societe Generale.
Consumers are at the center of concerns over a U.S. economic recession that seems increasingly hard to avoid. With total consumer credit hovering at $2.5 trillion, equivalent to about one-fifth of national economic output, the worry is not a trivial one.
On second thought, maybe I should borrow $10 million, and use that to finance my retirement. That is the way it works, no? Screw all this saving and investing, that is soooo yesterday.
What a great plan to save our economy: Reward everyone with $800 for their stupid idiot decisions and incompetence to read loan terms.
This is gonna turn out juuuuust great!
If it’s so damn urgent to push this stimulus package thru, are they really telegraphing the severity of the problem?
Grim
It seems that the # of comments has jumped since the newspaper article (not a surprise). Any stats you might care to share? what ballpark % increase in repeat traffic have you seen?
I totally do not understand why wasn’t the stimulus package be spent on infrastructure that this country really, the gov’t should be spending money repairing roads and bridges, building mass transit system more avaibable. That way you can increase construction and a foundation for later economic development. instead the money is given to taxpayer to be spent at the mall or otherwise.
I would guess it’s because the current administration is not going to be there in 1 year’s time, no need for long term development, just short term fixes for the sheeple.
Rant over, back to lurking…
Bingo! Monoline and Counterparty!
From the NYT Dealbook Blog:
Wall Street’s Next Crisis: Bond Insurers?
The growing crisis at Ambac Financial, one of the biggest bond insurers, is raising questions about Wall Street’s exposure as counterparties to the bond-insurance industry coming off a period in which the big banks are reeling from more than $100 billion in write-downs of mortgage-related securities, according to Forbes.
…
In recent years, Ambac, MBIA and others have ventured into insuring credit derivatives and other relatively newfangled fixed-income products invented by and peddled by Wall Street. Ambac guaranteed $38 billion of debt linked to subprime mortgages and has exposure to $45 billion of other mortgage investments.
The banks, as counterparties, are on the hook for billions in insurance they bought to hedge credit-derivatives positions. The insurance policies, called credit default swaps, have exploded in popularity in the last few years, with some $45 trillion outstanding.
According to Fitch Ratings, Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase were the biggest counterparties in terms of notional value outstanding at the end of 2006, and the market expanded substantially in 2007. Merrill Lynch, Citigroup and UBS were the top three underwriters of structured finance C.D.O.s last year.
…
“The ultimate systemic risk caused by the weakened positions of the monoline insurers is overwhelming and scary,” Oppenheimer analyst Meredith Whitney said in a late-December research note. “The impact will be sizable and very negative for the banks.”
Ah and there is even a star trek episode on bread and circuses, must be an important concept then. Thanks for the education. Switching brain off now and going back to marketing.
grim Says:
January 18th, 2008 at 7:47 am
Clot,
I’ll get the storefront, you set up the legal.
Cash advances backed by stimulus debit cards, if the payday guys can do it, and the tax guys can do it, I’m going to get mine too.
Fee will be 30%. With a 1% penetration rate across the state, and an estimated $500 per person, we should be able to clear $10 million.
Can I get in this one?
“what ballpark % increase in repeat traffic have you seen?”
Hopefully, many have taken notice of the donation link on the front page. It would be pitiful if JB doesn’t have his 2008 costs covered by the 2/9 stripper party.
Once again;
As 2008 is upon us, I would am going to go out on a limb and make a 2007 prediction. I bet, dollars/not gold, that JB did not cover his costs for this blog. If I am right, it truly is a shame.
I subscribe to different financial sites. Many don’t come close to the information that is provided here. It is simply a wealth of information at your fingertips. There are a ton of brilliant people on this site. Sometimes, I truly shake my head in amazement. You couldn’t pay for the information that is sliced and diced, on this site. There is nobody else that offers it.
In addition to web hosting, JB has exhausted all avenues by joining the local, regional and national realtors assoc.. This was done to better serve the blog community. I have no idea what this all costs. I haven’t discussed this with him. However, my gut tells me that he is in the red. Just call it traders intuition.
If I am correct, he may be hiding these losses off balance sheet. New accounting rules may require that he move these losses back. If that is the case, the shareholders [Jayne and his dog] may be livid. Also, this only pertains to his costs. I would not even begin to calculate the cost for his time, though the shareholders may?
All of us are an important part of the most successful and #1, at least to me, RE blog on the market today, truly prime. It would be disgraceful if it was supported strictly by subprime bloggers.
Make a push to get JB in the black for 2008, by the get together. If anybody agrees with me, please keep this topic moving throughout this site for this weekend. If you don’t agree, we can bring it up for discussion at the get together.
JB. Thanks for all the hard work you put into this.
64. Clotpoll;
It would only work if you could get News Coverage. For example, if Grim would hold the money in an Escrow Account, and get Fox News to take the check to the Government, then I would be happy to write the 1st check. The 1st check may be a “Minuteman Check”, “Shot heard around the World”. If we could put this Train back on it’s tracks, $1600 is a meager price to pay. I’m in!
Ratings agency Standard & Poor’s said Friday that the ongoing financial sector “slump” will continue through 2008 and into 2009, testing bank creditworthiness. “The downturn is unsettling because it comes in the context of relatively strong global economic growth and historically low corporate default rates,” wrote credit analyst Scott Bugie in a report. “Although the collateralized debt obligation write-downs have grabbed headlines, of equal concern are the systemic risks the downturn has highlighted,” he added. Large financial groups have announced $90 billion write-downs of CDOs, subprime securities and leveraged loans so far, the ratings agency wrote in the report
JB [94],
Back to the archives. Risk goes out the front door and then waltzes in thru the back door.
We got the market ready to roll, Capacity will be at the top, but it is a postive zooooomm, Watch the open baby!!!!!! Watch the volume, big trading day.
Where is my stimulus debit card anyway?
Word is that individuals making over $85 k and married couples making over $110k will not be given the opportunity to help stimulate our economy. The fear is that those of us making above these levels will simply piss the money away on savings and paying down debts, while lower income earners will perform their patriotic duty to spend our way to economic prosperity.
grim Says:
January 18th, 2008 at 7:47 am
Clot,
I’ll get the storefront, you set up the legal.
Cash advances backed by stimulus debit cards, if the payday guys can do it, and the tax guys can do it, I’m going to get mine too.
Fee will be 30%. With a 1% penetration rate across the state, and an estimated $500 per person, we should be able to clear $10 million.
Can I get in this one?
I have some cash on hand…… Count me in.
# 95 “Ah and there is even a star trek episode on bread and circuses, must be an important concept then”
It is a term that goes back to Rome. Back in the day, The Roman Empire had Legions (which were not allowed to enter the city of Rome) and the city lacked any police force. Life on the streets of the city of Rome was basically run by mafiosi who ran gangs to enforce a brand of order. When food was tight (remember their food was largly produced in North Africa) the gangs would riot. The government took to providing lots of free food (Bread) and various entertainment ” ( Circuses — which were not like modern circuses, but more in the mold of races and combative sports/arts).
In essence, keep people distracted and they will not object to what you do.
The $1600 should only go to people who bought a house or leased a luxury car in the last 5 years, they will spend it all in 5 minutes, stimulating the economy. If they give it to someone like me I will only save it, and the terrorists will win.
incase anyone was curious, the history of bread and circus
This phrase originates in Satire X of the Roman poet Juvenal of the late 1st and early 2nd centuries. In context, the Latin phrase panem et circenses (bread and circuses) is given as the only remaining cares of a Roman populace which has given up its birthright of political freedom
Grim
perhaps this should be the blog slogan
panem et circenses
Well off to the Mall. Better half needs some Diamonds to hedge the Gold. Then to Shoprite to Hedge it with Canned Goods.
“MBIA Inc. and Ambac Financial Group Inc., the two biggest bond insurers, have a more than 70 percent chance of going bankrupt, credit-default swaps show.
…
The bond insurers place their AAA stamp on $2.4 trillion of debt sold by thousands of municipalities across the country, as well as subprime-mortgage securities. Losing those rankings may cost borrowers and investors as much as $200 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.”
And Moody’s and S&P continue to look us directly in the eye and lie to us. Incredible.
GE, stop raining on the rally..
From MarketWatch:
GE: 4Q consumer delinquency rate in US up 59 basis points
GE: consumer delinquency rate rose 90 basis points in 2007
GE sees ’08 US consumer delinuency rate up 140 basis points
Business opportunity for those of us not getting gift cards from Uncle Sam: We buy them for cash at 60% on the dollar. The lower economic groups can then use cash for whatever and we get to use them for what we were going to spend anyway, and just move our other liquid assets to investments.
Regarding stimulus,
So are there any “real” economists who can actually suggest that you can “stimulate” your way out of our current mess when every dollar spent is purely on credit?
I hereby dub the 2/9 get-together the “Counter Party”!
On the more GRIM subject – 800$ to everyone??? w.t.f.??? As Grim said – why not give everybody 100000000???
Are our goverment really blatanly trelling the work that it can print/create (right now it is now even print – is it creates magnetized bits on the hard drives of banks) – as much money as it want??
Welcome hyper-inflation . These #@$^&%$#…… I am starting to hate goverment. Now I am starting to think that it is time to buy a samll farm somewhere cheap and go live on it.
Buckle up everybody!!! Hyperiflation’s caused depression rollecoaster is coming to your neightbourghhood. Thouse of you who think – it will NEVER happen in USA….
Well RE priced never drop either.
# 106
Unlike today when it is an obsession with sports and pop entertainment. I bet you could stop 100 people on the street and ask them who heads the federal reserve and ask who fathered some random pop tart and 10x as many people will know the latter than the former.
Shore,
Our own Congresspeople don’t know who heads the Federal Reserve. You expect Joe Sixpack to know?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wnPnLvsl6Aw
a little more history for panem et circenses
Juvenal here makes reference to the elite Roman practice of providing free wheat to some poor Romans as well as costly circus games and other forms of entertainment as a means of gaining political power through popularity. The Annona (grain dole) was begun under the instigation of the populist Gracchi in 123 BC; it remained an object of political contention until it was taken under the control of the Roman emperors.
The Gracchi were a Patrician family of ancient Rome.
The Gracchi brothers, Tiberius and Gaius, went down in history as martyrs to the cause of social reform. Tiberius was killed by members of the Roman Senate for attempting to make the system friendlier to the lower classes of Rome. They tried to limit the size of the large farms that the patricians (upper class) owned to keep the plebeians (lower class) able to compete with their smaller farms.
its a good thing history doesnt repeat itself……
I wonder if the market will ignore preliminary January data for consumer sentiment due to the “stimulus” package?
Last month was 75 and this month’s estitmate is 74 (Katrina set the recent low with 74.2 and we are already well below the 81.8 low during the 2001 recession)
We’ll find out at 10 EST…
#113Well RE priced never drop either.
Actually, they did, they have and they are again, world with out end Amen.
“Bread and Circuses”
Didn’t they open up for Spinal Tap in Cleveland in ’82?
Here’s a thought. With all of the impending lay off’s coming from the financial sector, coupled with the looming recession. Is it reasonable to think the unemployed folks (myself included) are going to flood to “recession proof” industries? Here’s my short list of industries that could be targeted, but how obtainable are they for NJ folks:
“The Sins”: Tobacco, Liquor, Pornography.
Tobacco for the south, Liquor…maybe, there is a Bud Plant and many distributors in Jersey but how many MBA’s will want to jump to Bud..”Dude”?
Porno.. we’ll leave that for California.
Entertainment: Obviously, west coast and niche NYC
Food/grocery stores/chains: I suppose anyone can bag groceries.
Energy: I say go Nucular, Plant in South Jersey right? Oyster Creek.
Medical Services: Well, Pharma is leaving in droves, correct?
Weapons / Military: Fort Monmouth is done, I believe Lakehurst is still doing well.
I’m sure the b-schools are going to have record admissions in ’08.
Love the HBO mini-series “Rome.”
duty calls…
Word is that individuals making over $85 k and married couples making over $110k will not be given the opportunity to help stimulate our economy.
Only now, do I sadly realize, that you weren’t joking around.
# 155 I watched the hearing yesterday and was appalled: “Oh, that is “the other guy.” Every couple of years my wife has to talk me out of a congressional run. I know that on one level she is right, that is not worth the effort or the pay. Still, I cannot stomach the likes of which “we” send to Washington to represent us. If it were not so serious, it would be comical.
ooh my first mod. grim a lil help on #120, thanks.
115, that is
Is this a tax refund or debit cards of $800?
Saw some people with signs today on my way to work. They said “we’ll broker your mortgage for food”..
This deserves a Haiku…
Fiscal Stimulus
Stock Market Rally Today
Bread and Circuses
# 126 i thought it was both
# 126, Actually, I think it is just an early withdrawl from social security benefits. What is the future value of that “stimulus?”
I take it back, another Haiku.
Rally now fading
Stimulus was just a sham
Can you spare a dime?
http://www.app.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080118/NEWS0301/801180323
Does this apply to the idiots in the financial industry that got us into this mortgage-backed mess?
TRENTON — Those cleared of alleged crimes because they are legally insane, pose no threat to society but still require treatment outside of an institution are subject to periodic judicial reviews, the state Supreme Court unanimously ruled Thursday.
Defendants found not guilty by reason of insanity can either be unconditionally released because they pose no threat to themselves or society, conditionally released because a court finds they require further treatment or committed to an institution.
[snip]
The market is up 75 pts right now, if that is all it can muster out of the gate, I bet it is down 100 by the close.
Did anyone hear about the bordello in Nevada that is offering a two-fer for any client who donates to Ron Paul?
grim,
sent you an e-mail
grim,
1 feel free to post that image if you like it to see what the board thinks.
Oh and can we move the meetup to the location shore mentioned in 134? DO they take stimulus checks?
eight hundred dollars
spent on boobs and bars, oh my
above 110? Oh no.
136,
Talk about a stimulus package. The only problem is that it will no doubt bring inflation and then a fairly-sudden round of deflation.
No really…folks could use their debit cards to buy both seasons of “Rome” @ Target/Wal Mart and bone up on “the fall of the Roman Empire.” It could be required or something…
Ann,
You need to get off your high horse. You are an opportunist just like everyone else. When you sell your home looking to trade up, please come back and tell everyone how you sold it to the first person who offered you 10% off your list price. Don’t be a hypocrite. Business is business and these sellers obviously took a risk and rejected your offer. Delusional or not they make the choice, not you. Move on.
Bystander, do you even know me?
I did just sell. And I sold in TWO WEEKS and every other house in my old neighborhood is still sitting there.
You know why? Because I priced it RIGHT from the start, against my realtors advice. And no, I didn’t get peak price and I didn’t ask for peak price.
And, I just bought a house for 10% off list for roughly the same comp as I sold for (a 2004 comp), so people who really want to sell these days can sell if they would just come into reality.
How dare you call me a hypocrite. Every thing I said about the buyer-uppers who houses I wasted my time even viewing stands. They will never sell at their post peak prices and in fact, they should stay there.
Is this a rebate on last year’s taxes, or like the last snake oil this bunch sold us, an $800 advance on people’s tax returns for this April. If it’s the latter, then all they’re doing is kicking the ball down the field till summer.
If I am correct, you bought and sold during the bubble and you made $. You did not give your house away for less so why do you expect others to do the same? It is a broken record, seriously.
Did anyone see the clip of the congresswoman who thought Bernanke was Hank Paulson.
She said aren’t you the CEO guy. Bernanke says no, thats the other guy. She says what was your last job. Bernanke – “CEO of the Princeton Economics department’. Surprising we are in this mess with all these amateurs.
You cant make it up
Creationist Museum is trying to auction Mastodon Skull that they say is 40,000 years old — except, they do not believe that the earth is 40,000 years old… ? (cnn.com)
http://www.cnn.com/2008/US/01/17/mastodon.skull.ap/index.html
And finally, I never made an offers on any of these particular buyer-uppers’ houses because I could read them like a book the second I walked in and I wouldn’t want to kill a tree for that.
What are you talking about? I did not buy and sell during the bubble. I bought in 2001, I made a little bit of money when we sold at the end of 2007. I didn’t make as much as my neighbor who sold in 2005.
We wanted to sell and we priced at the right price and we got the first buyer who came through the neighborhood, who happened to be a great buyer.
The rest of the houses in the neighborhood that were on before we came on are still ON THE MARKET.
Now I’ve told you my story and perspective, What’s your deal? Maybe you’re one of these buyers looking to buy up and are mad you can’t sell for top dollar anymore?
Bystander [140],
As a potential trader-upper myself, I agree with Ann 100%. The sellers are beyond delusional. I have no idea why they think their stench hole called a house deserves the asking prices they’re trying to peddle. She’s absolutely right. You need a haz mat suit and a crow bar before you even walk into some of these rat traps.
So, you got lucky and someone bought your POS and caught the falling knife. Congrats. Move on. You have a home now. You made out in real estate. Why so bitter? Your posts are still so angry…geez.
I am not looking to move, not a buyer upper and when I do move I will treat it is business not personal.
way OT but amusing….
Sturdy skirt a hit with Swedish workmen
http://www.thelocal.se/9689/2
potter [145],
Marcy Kaptur, Ohio. She is a complete buffoon. She did not know the difference between the current account deficit and our budget defecit. The only surprise? She doesn’t sit in Trenton.
Huh?
I was commenting on the message of the NYT article that grim posted, how HARD it is to be a buyer-upper these days.
Seriously, why are you taking my comments so personally? I don’t get it. If it’s just business to you, what do you care what I say about a newspaper article in relation to my personal experience on a househunt these past six months. I could post the listings if you want to see the sellers I’m talking about.
I made out in real estate? Are you serious? Honestly, I was always just an average person who was looking for a home, that’s all.
So really, now that you know my story, what’s yours? Do you own now? When did you buy? Do you plan to stay there forever? Are you are renting?
Also, I didn’t get “lucky” finding a buyer. I priced it right and a buyer, who for his own reasons, thought it was worth the asking price. Just the way a market is supposed to work.
At least I wasn’t waiting for some knight on a white horse to come in and give me a peak price in the spring.
How about those patriots?
#27 fool
“it is a good indicatin that housing recession is behind us.”
How many times have you said that in the past year, bi?
How many times will you humiliate yourself by saying it again during the next year?
Another suspect torch foreclosure–this time a judge.
http://www.tdcaa.com/node/1835
Of course, this might all be a big misunderstanding.
“HOUSTON — Texas Supreme Court Justice David Medina and his wife have been charged in an arson fire that destroyed their home in the Houston suburb of Spring last summer, their attorney said.”
“Investigators became suspicious after discovering that a mortgage company sued in June 2006 to foreclose on the home. The suit, filed after the family missed payments for five months, was settled in December.”
Can anyone give me an update on the address below. Thanks
683 Victoria Ave
Paramus, NJ 07652
“Marcy Kaptur, Ohio. She is a complete buffoon. She did not know the difference between the current account deficit and our budget defecit. The only surprise? She doesn’t sit in Trenton.”
She’s from Northern Ohio. As somebody who grew up in Southern Ohio I can vouch that IQ’s drop dramatically north of Columbus.
“Don’t look at what is behind you. Better yet, if you drop your keys, don’t bend down to pick them up.”
At least, not unless you pant up first.
Sprint-Nextel to cut 4,000 jobs.
Ann,
You are absolutely right. Greedy sellers who overpriced their homes have wasted alot of people’s time.
My husband and I say that everyone of those greedy b@##’s thought their houses were made of gold.
vodka (111)-
“So are there any “real” economists who can actually suggest that you can “stimulate” your way out of our current mess when every dollar spent is purely on credit?”
PeeWee Herman?
Think that annoys me a bit is these great rates are for under 417K only and you can’t give away your starter homes. Most people at best can save up a second 200K downpayment and maybe pull 300K equity out of stater. Now I am tallking a very lucky few with 500K to put down and with a 417K max loan you are talking upper mgt trading up maybe affording 917K with out going jumbo subprime sky high loans, Yet trade ups are stuck in the 1.2 to 1.5 million range. Owners refuse to go under a million as if that is a magic number and they sit and sit and sit. Crazy Plus most people bought these homes for 400k in the 1990s anyhow.
Thanks Patti and Gary
The only thing I will amend on my original post is calling their houses POS. That’s not really what it was, a house is what it is. One man’s POS is another man’s castle.
It was that the prices were completely out of whack (on these houses that I saw), and these types of buyer-uppers are the last people I feel will sorry for in this downturn.
“How many times have you said that in the past year, bi?”
patient [156],
I truly miss his/her market calls. Just a great indicator, go the other way.
Ann,
Yes, I’ve owned a home for 4 years and I don’t plan on moving anytime soon. I got a 30 year fixed at 5.5, ok? I have enough saved for a large DP on another home if I wanted. I am not underwater, not a buyer upper. Just admit that you sold to move up before the market tanked and thought you could lowball nicer homes but got bitter because people did not agree to 10% off. It is at the buyer’s discretion, not yours. Those people are doing just fine since they bought years ago. You are playing the game too..just accept it. You are not better than these people. It is about timing and capital. You made out, you bought a home..why so bitter?
Bystander (144)-
You’re pants-down on this one. Give it up.
Ann’s whole buy/sell was documented here.
Speaking of Counterparty, be sure to attend the Morristown Counter Party on 2/9!
S&P cuts Washington Mutual rating to ‘BBB+’
Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services said Friday it cut its long-term counterparty credit rating on Washington Mutual Inc. to BBB+ from A-, following the company’s poor earnings showing on Thursday. S&P also affirmed its A-2 short-term ratings on the company, and gave a negative outlook for the company. “The weak earnings for 2007 and the prospects for similar performance in 2008 are beyond the tolerance for the ‘A’ rating on the bank,” said S&P credit analyst Victoria Wagner in a statement.
“No free lunch. Giving $800 to everyone has the same long term effect of giving $0 to everyone.”
…except it’s more expensive…
167,
seller’s discretion, of course. People who recently overbought are at the buyer’s discretion.
Zack,
ACT 683 VICTORIA AVE $1,194,500 11/25/2006
PCH 683 VICTORIA AVE $1,179,000 2/20/2007
PCH 683 VICTORIA AVE $1,159,000 3/8/2007
ACT* 683 VICTORIA AVE $1,159,000 5/30/2007
U/C 683 VICTORIA AVE $1,159,000 5/31/2007
BOM 683 VICTORIA AVE $1,159,000 6/8/2007
PCH 683 VICTORIA AVE $1,129,000 6/26/2007
W-U 683 VICTORIA AVE $1,129,000 7/25/2007
ACT 683 VICTORIA AVE $1,194,500 7/25/2007
PCH 683 VICTORIA AVE $1,129,000 7/27/2007
PCH 683 VICTORIA AVE $1,099,000 10/12/2007
EXT 683 VICTORIA AVE $1,099,000 11/28/2007
PCH 683 VICTORIA AVE $1,059,000 1/4/2008
Taxes: $14,867
the long, slow slog to -$200 continues apace…
Bystander, we were relocated. Our buying and selling motives were solely related to the relo.
Glad you are happy in your house with your great interest rate and enjoy sitting on your large DP on your dream house.
Funny comic about housing prices…good laugh to start the weekend…
http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/01/falling-home-prices.jpg
John164 Trades ups at 1to1.5 mil, 3oo k out of a starter.What planet are you on.Who in the hell can afford a million + home.Not many unless all the stats posted here on income are wrong.There aren’t enough people making the amount of money to own these houses.So they can lower or sit.Remember there is no light at the end of the tunnel by the time
this market gets over this bubble the boomers will be starting to flood the market
with their homes.A home is a place to live not a get cash register.
115 grim
“Our own Congresspeople don’t know who heads the Federal Reserve. ”
I believe the correct term is “congresscritters.”
“kettle1 Says:
January 18th, 2008 at 9:40 am
a little more history for panem et circenses”
Shouldn’t we come up with a RE-related modern equivalent of bread and circuses?
how about granite countertops and stainless steel appliances?
how about HDTVs and Wii?
“Fiscal Stimulus
Stock Market Rally Today
Bread and Circuses”
HA!!!
That’s really good.
“The CDS market is largely unregulated, and as long as a firm can find a counter-party to take the other side of their position, a hastily thrown together contract is all that’s required to write a contract. It’s sort of like that guy in the office who will take the other side of any bet: you’re not quite sure if he’ll pay, but at least there’s a chance you’ll see your money on Monday. And therein lies the problem.”
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/MER-Bernanke-MCO-MBI-abk/index/a/15586
Fiscal Stimulus
Stock Market Rally Today
Bread and Circuses
What rally????
You need to stay true to the meaning of bread and circuses (see above).
Chewy Crunchy Cheese Gordita (Taco Bell)
and
American Idol
sold.
Eleven hundred dollars
Will it be Plasma or LCD
What a dilemma
[29 & 154]
Ann, I’m in the same situation as you. Bought in 2001 and sold at end of 2007. When I sold I wanted to list higher, but relied on my real estate agent for a price that was realistic. I sold within 90 days. Now with a larger family I’m looking for somthing bigger (not a macmansion), but the prices are so unrealistic, even for someone with a downpayment and a decent income.
We made a few low ball offers – I previously posted how I “insulted” the sellers. One of the houses eventually sold to someone else for what has been whispered to be “around” asking. In this market, I can’t imagine who comes in and buys these overpriced homes. I’m not suggesting they are all pos’s, but come on people, who is willing to buy in the jumbo mortgage arena for a house with no garage, one car garage, unfinished basement (or worse yet a basement that was damaged by last April’s flooding and hasn’t been repaired), bathrooms with those original baby blue, pink, or yellow tiles with the matching color and black tile floor(most have missing pieces on the floor), bedrooms that you can’t fit three pieces of furniture in without feeling trapped, that backs up to a trailer home park, that is adjacent to a busy road, that has no back yard etc etc etc.
Sometimes, I think I should just throw in the towl and pay those high prices just to end the searching, but the thought of being house poor is too much of a price to pay.
What rally????
See Haiku number two
Eleven hundred dollars
Will it be Plasma or LCD
What a dilemma
I just pee’d myself
Didn’t the Roman’s throw out loaves of bread to the masses at the colloseum (Bread & Circus)?
Grim you beat me to it hOOters & American Idol was mine.
Mike 176
And you just nailed the one point that is the 900lb gorilla in the room. Just as this housing bubble would in theory start to turn around you are going to have the first wave of baby boomer putting theirs homes on the market in large numbers. This will probably devastate both rents and home purchase prices as supply swells and demand doesnt
Dow just went into the red.
Indices all negative
I’m hearing that the state of New Jersey has just decided to allocate $800 million (1% of pension assets) into real estate.
$ will be invested in US-based publicly traded real estate companies, mostly REITs.
NJ taxpayers missed out on huge REIT outperformance so far this decade. REITs up 225% from 2000 thru 2007, despite horrible year in 2007. S&P up 14% during same period.
Lack of a real estate allocation is one of the reasons why the state pension funds are underfunded.
But I like the way NJ is getting into real estate. US REIT stocks are undervalued relative to the value of the real estate they own, so nice to see NJ buying the stocks instead of buying the real estate directly.
Pretard,
Sounds like a great plan. Invest in something after it’s outperformed. Sounds like NJ, buy high, sell low.
Get out the umbrellas, the perfect storm is coming.
Maybe some limericks are in order:
There once was a mug named Bernanke
Who chaired the ol’ federal banky
He said “There now, Ducks,
Here’s eight hundred bucks!”
And he wiped Wall Streets tears with his hanky
“NJ taxpayers missed out on huge REIT outperformance so far this decade. REITs up 225% from 2000 thru 2007, despite horrible year in 2007.”
That ship has sailed.
I was on Craigslist and saw one of the Pointe 2BR/condos being offered for less than $260k. Last year, they were tipping around $300k I thought.
today will be a great opportunity to grab some over-sold shares especially in financial and engergy area if your money is not 100% tied up to the gold nugget under your pillow
I would take a tax cut in a heartbeat. Be honest: do you really think we will ever pay off our national debt? Of course we won’t! We are clearly spiraling toward default at all levels of government. Why would you allow these morons to kept more of your money if they are volunteering to give it back? It is going to be frivolously spent either way, so I would prefer to be the one who has the privilege of spending it.
So, the president opens his mouth — “there is a chance of a downturn” DOH! — and the market gives back all of its gains in minutes. Can we send him back to the Gulf?
Coult someone get a History on Bi’s bottom of the market calling – I recall he said that 1350 was last great buying opportunity about 2 month ago????
I hope he does not work in Finance!!!
Clot,
Here is the question – forward to 2027. 2007 turmoil is way behind and homes have appreciated for 10 years. Does Ann sell her home for yearly 3% appreciation from 2007 – 2027 or does she sell at what the market dictates? Will she give up 100K to prove her own morality? I don’t think so. That is the high horse I am talking about.
it should read 13500
Ohh yea – at some point he will be right
– as long as he does not change his tune!!!
From the WSJ:
The race is on!
Clinton Adds Rebate
To Economic Proposal
By JACKIE CALMES
January 18, 2008; Page A2
WASHINGTON — Sen. Hillary Clinton called for a $40 billion tax rebate to bolster the economy, saying worsening conditions have removed the hesitation she had just days ago about whether it was needed.
Last week, Sen. Clinton proposed a $70 billion economic-stimulus plan with new spending on measures such as aid to those facing foreclosure and help for heating bills. At the time, she said a $40 billion tax rebate could be added to the plan if the economy soured further. But in an interview yesterday, she said the rebate is needed now.
…
INTERVIEW EXCERPTS
[Hillary Clinton]
“I deliberately structured [the proposal] to be directly stimulative through spending, and then with the 40 billion [dollars] contingent. Given the news that we’re receiving about retail sales down, consumer confidence as low as it’s been in, gosh, years, I think we’ve got to look at a larger package. I’m now in the 110 billion range, which I think is a very good starting place.”
…
“Given the news that we’re receiving about retail sales down, consumer confidence as low as it’s been in, gosh, years, I think we’ve got to look at a larger package,” she said. “I’m now in the $110 billion range, which I think is a very good starting place.”
Before Sen. Clinton upped her ante to include an estimated $250 rebate for low- and middle-income taxpayers, some critics — including economic advisers in Bill Clinton’s administration — had said her proposals wouldn’t stimulate the economy as much as the plan of her leading rival, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama. The critics said it wouldn’t get cash as quickly into the hands of people most likely to spend it.
Sen. Obama’s plan, released days after Sen. Clinton’s, also would provide $250 rebates to lower- and middle-income families, and $250 bonuses to Social Security recipients. A third Democratic presidential contender, former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards, proposed a $100 billion plan in late December.
Sen. Clinton also said any stimulus package should include remedies to stem home foreclosures. Alone among the presidential candidates so far, she also called for considering regulations on U.S. investments by sovereign wealth funds — state-owned pools such as those controlled by China and Kuwait — given the potential for foreign governments’ interference.
The New York senator’s remarks were part of the rush to embrace a stimulus package in Washington amid signs the economy is in a recession, or soon could be.
The candidates’ stimulus proposals, coming a year before the next president takes office, are meaningful mainly as a signal to voters of how they would react to a downturn as president. But as senators, Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Obama can try to push their ideas in congressional debate.
Yesterday, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney became the first Republican presidential candidate to endorse an immediate economic stimulus, telling reporters in South Carolina that he would propose a tax rebate in coming days.
http://online.wsj.com/article_print/SB120061974887199345.html
By the way – manufacturing was in Decline sine 1998….
DJIA in 1998 was …. 8000-9000.
Correct for inflation: 11600… I would call this a bottom!!!
Kettle 190 That is why I’m not buying unless its 30% off peak.If I don’t get it I’ll rent & invest my DP.If your going to build how about a modular home.The ideas you were posting yesterday would cost a mint.You will not get any return on all the money you spend on those types of homes.
I see S&P 500 at 1300 some point today.
#196 Somebody bring njpatient a Guinness! Cheers!
Corzine’s new comptroller hiring a staff of 60?
Good god, even when he is trying to save money, he is bleeding it.
Al Says:
January 18th, 2008 at 11:42 am
By the way – manufacturing was in Decline sine 1998….
DJIA in 1998 was …. 8000-9000.
Correct for inflation: 11600… I would call this a bottom!!!
10 ounces of Gold is when you might want to start to get in DOW.
The fiscal stimulus is not a bad idea. By providing lower income families(less than 110) $800-1600 in rebates, the government is effectively redistributing tax income from wealthier individuals. While this may mean very little to the upper middle class, who are most likely to save in a downturn, the lower middle class will recycle that cash back into the economy on necessary goods and services and, god forbid, maybe diner and a movie…
At least under this fiscal approach, we are not printing more money and forcing the fed to over cut.
At least under this fiscal approach, we are not printing more money and forcing the fed to over cut.
Where are the money coming from???
RE: John164 Trades ups at 1to1.5 mil, 3oo k out of a starter.What planet are you on.
Yes I am being serious. My total pos starter I paid 280K for in late 1999 with a 140K dwnpmt is still worth close to 500K, 300K cash out from a starter is fairly normal for anyone who bought pre 2002 and put down 20% or more.
For a trade up I would expect at least 80X100 or more, two car garage, four/five bedrooms and 2/3 baths and be a colonial type house, not a split/cape house and be in a good neighborhood with a good direct trainline to city, be in good shape and less than 30 miles to NYC. Also a trade up should be in a town with at least some name recongniton. Not some no name town.
Those houses are all over million and are not budging. I don’t want to trade up to a slightly larger split in the same town or an equally so so town. as it is too much effort to move, and to get a nice house you still need seven figures. This ain’t down south where 500K buys a mansion.
I don’t believe the income stats, trades ups are for 35-50 year old gradute level educated people with upper management jobs that got married 10 plus years ago so their 1990’s starter homes have lots of equity. The average income of that crowd is what matters, not the average income including, welfare moms, mcdonald workers and retirees.
#213 – Or they could use to pay down their debt, in which case it is a roundabout bailout of the various lenders.
Scribe 206
I’ll see your 25 bil & raise you 25 bil.All with borrowed money to be payed by are kids.
What a f##ken joke we have become as a nation.
“Can we send him back to the Gulf?”
Can we go back in time and send him to Vietnam?
I wonder if some people would think about their mortgage, if a disclosure law actually required that the Bank show them the Full Interest Amortization Schedule. It’s one thing to borrow $500K and see the monthly payment figure, another to see it’s also at 7% costing you @$700K in Interest over 30 years. They might not be so quick to pay as much if they realize what the true cost is $1.2M.
In 1971, I bought a house for $125K with $55K down & $70K mortgage, at 12 1/4% / 15 year. Interest over 15 years was $83K, so the $125K house was actually $208K, plus or minus tax taxes, improvements, etc.
When you crank that up to the Mortgages people get today, it becomes a real issue.
And by the way – My cash downpayment sitting in 5% FDIC insured CDs starting to look better and better as an “investment”.
(My 401K mutual fund just erased all 2007 gain so in effect my cd are 5% better yeild than Stocks. On the upside being young – my contributions to 401K buying quitw a bit mroe shares today than 2 month ago…).
don’t save, but spend. wtf?! it’s how we got here. i just don’t understand how the president did not mention anything about paying down debt as the key strategy with this stimulus.
So being a new year and what not, how about another prediction…
within the next 3-5 years we will see the chinese juggernaut start to falter. They have pushed themselves into a prisoners dilemma of sorts. They have curtailed the level of growth in their economy in order to prevent negative consequences to their buyers ( i.e higher energy prices for everyone). They are now starting to reach the point where internal energy demands are pushing them towards buying larger quantities of energy and at a faster rate then they have been (i.e increased demand). As the US consumer is now tapped out and as internal labor costs increase the are/will start to lose their competitive production edge, lose their favorite addict ( the US) and see rising energy costs that while affordable to them will have a negative feed back effect on their customers ability to purchase good from them.
I like the idea of sending it back to pay off a very small fraction of the national debt. I wanted to give the 600.00 back we got when the bozo got in, remember that check from july 01 -ooops we gave away some of our surplus now we’ve lost zillions 2 months later. I know my knowledge of finance and budgets is very limited but I know it was’nt right them and it isn’t right now
Will I send back only mine, no. But a grassroots effort to get alot of back I will join in.
KL
“Al Says:
January 18th, 2008 at 11:42 am
By the way – manufacturing was in Decline sine 1998….
DJIA in 1998 was …. 8000-9000.
Correct for inflation: 11600… I would call this a bottom!!!”
I wouldn’t. The DOW in 1998 was already part way into the dotcom bubble.
toshiro_mifune Says:
January 18th, 2008 at 11:51 am
#213 – Or they could use to pay down their debt, in which case it is a roundabout bailout of the various lenders.
I did not think about this one….. make sense – they are heroes in the eyes of people and even bigger heroes in the eyes of wall street!!!
203 Bystander
Although Clot is wise, let me answer that one for you myself.
If I need to sell, I sell for the price the market says the house is worth. 10X, at a loss, whateer.
Oh yeah, like we just did on our sell in this downturn!
It’s not a moral question BTW, just business like you said.
grim Says:
January 18th, 2008 at 9:50 am
Word is that individuals making over $85 k and married couples making over $110k will not be given the opportunity to help stimulate our economy.
Only now, do I sadly realize, that you weren’t joking around.
Maybe the $85K Singles & $110K Married will get the Bill for the payments to the Stimulators. That would be a Net Zero asset Transfer.
Mike 208
You missed the part about where i want to build…. I am currently thinking about either costa rica or belieze. They will probably both have better economies in 10 years anyway
#218 –
confused – #218
when i worked in a bank and did any kind of loan, it was very very clear at the top of the first page of the document, in larger print than the rest, the total amount of interest paid over the life of the loan – and then it was added to the principle and the borrower could see the total amount of all the payments added together. as long as you had eyes, and you could recognize numbers, there should be no surprise.
can’t speak for all banks – that’s just from my experience.
To post #223 – yea but I have corrected for very mild 3% inflation…. In reality I think average inflation was more like 4-5% in thouse 10 years.
Kettle,
#221
They will start consuming their own goods themselves. They’ll say I have all this money saved and maybe I should spend a little and start enjoying my life.
Their gov’t can hand money($)out to stimulate spending because they have massive surplusses.(trillions)
When this happens say hello to hyperinflation and a worthless dollar.
From the AP:
Report: More Foreclosures Than Workouts
Thursday January 17, 5:07 pm ET
By Alan Zibel, AP Business Writer
Trade Group Says Report Shows Reinforced Push to Avoid Foreclosures, Critics Question Analysis
WASHINGTON (AP) — A mortgage industry trade group insisted Thursday that lenders are doing a better job of helping troubled borrowers than outside reports say they are.
The Mortgage Bankers Association said in a new report that mortgage lenders modified 54,000 loans and established 183,000 repayment plans in the third quarter, a period in which there were 384,000 new foreclosures.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080117/loan_modifications_report.html?.v=3
Bystander Says:
January 18th, 2008 at 11:39 am
Clot,
Here is the question – forward to 2027. 2007 turmoil is way behind and homes have appreciated for 10 years. Does Ann sell her home for yearly 3% appreciation from 2007 – 2027 or does she sell at what the market dictates? Will she give up 100K to prove her own morality? I don’t think so. That is the high horse I am talking about.
________________________________________________
But she isn’t talking about “morality”–she’s talking about people with homes that saw a run-up in price during a bubble, who want to sell NOW for the same inflated prices, in spite of a clear economic downturn.
That doesn’t make them “immoral,” but it does make them foolish, because they are unlikely to sell at the prices they are seeking–slapping an asking price on a house is not the same thing as selling it for that amount.
Ann will sell her house for the same price as everyone else–whatever a capable buyer is willing to pay: the end.
You missed the part about where i want to build…. I am currently thinking about either costa rica or belieze. They will probably both have better economies in 10 years anyway
even Albania should be considered as an alternative.
Mneer, 213
“At least under this fiscal approach, we are not printing more money and forcing the fed to over cut.”
yes we are, even with a tax rebate the government is going to spend at the same level. Just becuase the GOV hands out 50 Billion in rebates does not mean that they will cut 50 Billion from the budget. The government spending more then it has , has essentially the same effect as printing it at this point given that we are so deep in debt as a country
[218] There is a Truth in Lending Form.
185 jam
Keep looking for something you love, ok, it’s NNJ, at least something you like :), as long as your situation can hold out.
And don’t believe the whispers on the house that you didn’t get until you see the number yourself. It might be much lower than you think (although higher than your lowball), and your lowball offer may have put a dose a reality into the sellers’ heads, ultimately doing them the biggest favor of their lives.
By the way a Question for Financial Gurus outhere
Does anybody have links or reference to a book/academic paper on:
How would Modern, Developed Financial Market Cope with Hyperinflation??
I do not believe it happened in the last 30-40 years – no developed countries pushed themself into true hyperinflanatory spiral recently….
Anywasy any reading on the subject would be appreciated.
I wonder what the average NJ resident lost in net worth over the last 12 months.
House Value Declines
Stock Portfolio Declines
For a 35 year old, I am willing to bet it is between 150k – 300k
yes we are, even with a tax rebate the government is going to spend at the same level. Just becuase the GOV hands out 50 Billion in rebates does not mean that they will cut 50 Billion from the budget. The government spending more then it has , has essentially the same effect as printing it at this point given that we are so deep in debt as a country
I agree 100% except that $50B is peanuts..it’s more like $200B.
It would be nice if someone could get all of the major presidential candidates to pledge to not raise taxes while the economy is on the front burner in this campaign. Of course, some of them would never promise this, but it would be interesting to hear them explain why not, especially since they’re now jumping over one another to offer tax rebates.
230 make
That is a very real possibility, but it is an open question as to whether they would do that given that there is a fair chance of them going down with us. no-one really sees to have a good grasp of how the US/ china consumer linkage can be decoupled without severely impacting both countries.
If they are going to hand out $200B in Debit Cards who is going to get the contract? Chase and Mastercard are doing the Unemployment debit cards for NYS.
200B X .04(fee)=$8B in merchat fees for the debit card company.
nice quater. anyone long on mastercard?
kettle – aunt and uncle live in costa rica and love it.
140 skep
Poppy Bush taught the pols a lesson the won’t soon forget regarding tax promises.
they
If counters were made out of silver
And bathrooms were fashioned in gold
And hardwood was laid under oak collonades
Would buyers come in from the cold?
‘Fraid not, my dear upside down seller
‘Cause PRICE is your bugaboo now
And though you may think the RE freefall stinks
Just wait ’til you look at the DOW!
So though you may re-list your home
With an asking price dropped by a thou
And add central A/C installation for free
You’ll find nobody’s buying it now.
I think what is happening is – US economy was degrading for last 10 years…
Only sector which was improving was housebuilding. Right now we have more houses than we need. China cut down last year on purchases of US treasuries. See post #49 from Bob. (a link would be nice)
In effect China Yelled: “The King is naked“.
And $hit hit the fan. It is not about housing anymore.
kettle1 Says:
January 18th, 2008 at 12:08 pm
230 make
That is a very real possibility, but it is an open question as to whether they would do that given that there is a fair chance of them going down with us. no-one really sees to have a good grasp of how the US/ china consumer linkage can be decoupled without severely impacting both countries.
I agree that a lot of people are not sure as to what is going to happen.
but from experience whenver a partnership disolves the partner holding the cash ends up making out like a bandit. I know I have a simplistic view on things but it has always worked for me.
njpatient– agree that they don’t want to make such a promise, but the questions can still be asked: Will you be open to raising taxes, yes or no? If yes, the follow up should be: Don’t you agree that tax cuts stimulate the economy, after all, they are the centerpiece of your stimulus package.
Would love to see the cartwheels that would induce.
Al [237],
Don’t know if this is what you are looking for?
http://econ161.berkeley.edu/Econ_Articles/theinflationofthes.html
Make,
Uruguay
OT: movie review snippet…
January 17, 2008 — ‘CLOVERFIELD” combines unpleasantness and stupidity to a degree that would be difficult to match unless you were stuck in bed with a case of the shingles while being forced to watch “The Ghost Whisperer.”
Ann,
Agreed. It is business and the people who bought a good sized house in 1997 and are happy without the granite etc. are fiscally smart. “Make me move” pricing is f-in brilliant and we should all aspire to be in their position, not despise them. That is why I don’t understand the attacks. These people are promoting the fiscal sense that many on this blog live by. Most people did not leverage their homes to crazy levels and thus there is no need to sell right now. Nothing wrong that…they will pull up their sign and wait it out again. Good for them.
Hard to say what is disclosed, or not disclosed, any more, as majority of Mortgages are no longer through traditional banks. When requiring a person to be able to afford a mortgage was eliminated, seems like everything was, for non traditional banks, anyway. I’m sure a Mortgage through Traditional Hudson City or Investors S&L in NJ, are still full disclosure, Creative Mortgage Companies who knows?
I worked for the Dime Savings Bank in 1963, but back then, even the bumpers on cars, had to match in height. Nowadays the Rule seems to be No Rule.
also….
January 18, 2008 — AND the cinematic comeback of the year award goes to . . . someone other than Katie Holmes, whose comedy “Mad Money” is the most cringe-making return since “Love Boat: The Next Wave.”
Holmes, with Alice Cooper hair and crazy Jim Carrey eyes, looks terrible and acts worse, unless this movie is unintentionally a lobotomy documentary. Whatever could have happened to her in the last couple of years to zap the talent out of her like this?
234, 239
Any form of economic policy will require prudent ‘long term’ spending to revenue. However, fiscal policy in theory by stimulating the economy leads to additional tax revenue when the economy gets back on track. Thereby you have stimulated the economy and provided a means to balance the budget. In the instance of locking out the wealthies you are only redistributing the wealth.
Bush needed more fuel for Wall Street, When he was prevented from throwing Social Security into the Market, him & Alan G came up with the House Bubble approach.
# 246,
i rarely mention it because most people look at you like you have 2 heads, but i have come to the same conclusion. The scary part is how do you prepare for it? and look at the risk associated with any preparations. If you prep for such an event and it doesnt happen you are most likely worse off then everyone else. If it does come to pass then your preparations are no guarantee, but will give you an edge….. :(
“Don’t you agree that tax cuts stimulate the economy, after all, they are the centerpiece of your stimulus package.”
this is one area where I agree with Bernanke, who took pains yesterday to emphasize that there is a tremendous difference between short term stimulous and long-term action (in the context of being pressed to say that Bush’s tax cuts should be made permanent).
Bob – post # 250 was more of a description of 1970’s inflation. while it was high it was a far cry from real hyperinflation.
What I am asking is: What is going to hapen with stock market if inflation goes up to 1000%/year, 10000%/year. Can stock marker even exist?? How do you price hyperinflation – how di you price risks of buisnesses going belly-up due to inflation??
246; 258
I’ve been worried about that for awhile now. You don’t have two heads.
Little known fact: Bush killed the dinosaurs.
260
you’re basically positing worldwide Weimar.
262 No Dinosaurs in Viet Nam
#237 – Al, a modern economy would not have hyperinflation because of relatively good economic management. Hyperinflation would require printing loads of money, so much that the entire money supply becomes nearly worthless. That just is not going to happen – look at the early 80’s when Volker jacked interest rates up so high that unemployment reached 10%. Choking off inflation caused extreme pain and hardship, but they were still willing to do it. The same would happen today.
256 nmeer
That may be the case in a healthy capitalistic free (sort of) market economy. The problem is that we are so far in debt and our spending and liabilities are so far beyond out tax revenue that your scenario is no longer viable. Inflation is in danger of running away and the GOV is talking about handing out more cash. This only fuels the inflationary fire that could to lead to an even messier deflationary depression.
On another general note, after doing some reading lately i have a better understanding of how our inflation going out of control can lead to a deflationary recession/depression
That just is not going to happen – look at the early 80’s when Volker jacked interest rates up so high that unemployment reached 10%. Choking off inflation caused extreme pain and hardship, but they were still willing to do it. The same would happen today.
I hope you are right. Right now I just do not see it.
“Al, a modern economy would not have hyperinflation because of relatively good economic management.”
This sentence does not give me comfort.
AL 260
The answer is simple,
look at this (pic, SFW)
http://tinyurl.com/3caclp
# 213 “the government is effectively redistributing tax income from wealthier individuals. ”
Yes it is and I resent it going from my pocket into anyone’s who has overstretched themselves while trying to HAVE more than their income allows.
grim Says:
January 18th, 2008 at 9:35 am
I hereby dub the 2/9 get-together the “Counter Party”!
grim: I thought it was a catwalk and pole party?
AL 260
and look at this (NY Times)
http://tinyurl.com/zvssy
“Bob – post # 250 was more of a description of 1970’s inflation. while it was high it was a far cry from real hyperinflation.”
Al,
Get a book about Weimar.
“Al, a modern economy would not have hyperinflation because of relatively good economic management.”
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA ROFLMFAO
Paulson and Lazear are standing side-by-side and it looks like a Daddy Warbucks lookalike contest.
If anyone on this board has not read “The Road” by Cormac McCarthy, you would love it. It will kick your survivalist doomsday planning into overdrive if it’s not there already.
[238] “For a 35 year old, I am willing to bet it (average NJ resident net loss over the last 12 months) is between 150k – 300k”
You think the average 35 year old in NJ had between 300 and 600K in NET worth 12 months ago??????
If that’s true, I can’t afford America anymore.
The $800 should be only to pay off a mortgage that is an ARM or above 7%, or pay off existing credit card balances for people with a low credit score or for people with a higher credit score and not in danger to buy american make products, lets say put it towards a nice chevy malibu.
The idiot spenders will take their $800 and buy a $1,500 plazma and put even more risky debt on the banks balance sheet while sending the profits from the sale of the TV off to Asia.
In realty I would almost like to see a 2K tax credit towards purchase of american car, tax free 401K withdrawls to pay off at risk sub prime borrowers. Incentives should be to buy american products, keep american jobs and pay down risky debts. Letting the massess use it to buy more foreign junk it pointless.
Well very often in the last 10 years you house was counted toward ones net worth. Now when all paper gains are going away – it is instant hit of 10k, 20k, 100K – lowering one’s net worth.
Al,
Hyperinflation:
Burning marks for heat, since it was cheaper than burning fuel.
http://www.usagold.com/germannightmare.html
#274 – Kettle, keep laughing but since inflation was choked off in the early 80’s things have been really good in the US. Interest rates have stayed low. The deficits of the 80’s were reversed without the sky falling (yes the deficit has run up again). Unemployment has been low. Draconian welfare reform has not led to children starving. There have been no massive urban riots. No economy or society is problem-free, but things have been relatively good.
American cars are nto made In America Anymore.
Just look at GM Truck factory in Linden… Moved to Mexico last year.
So basically you are saying that in case of hyperinflation Stock markets do not exist??
John,
Interesting point, should the payout be legal tender only for goods and services produced and delivered in the USA? (Insert inappropriate comment about American strippers and Makers Mark here).
https://njrereport.com/index.php/2008/01/18/weekend-open-discussion-98/#comment-149618
NJ Patient your a rhymer now? huh what’s next? You gonna get your real estate license??
[279] Unrealized house value is not exactly net worth.
HEHEHE Says:
As somebody who grew up in Southern Ohio I can vouch that IQ’s drop dramatically north of Columbus.
We Clevelanders consider everything south of I-70 to be Kentucky anyway.
a 35 year old married couple with a stay at home wife who quit work at 33 would have had around 25 years worth of 401K contributions and in the 1993 through 2004 period could have locked in on a lot of good years to buy. They could have bought a starter in 1999 and have 250K in equity there and then their cash accounts. 650K is reasonable.
My 30 year old staff are all at around 650K total assets, 2001-2006 they cashed a heck of a lot of in the money stock options and banked a lot of 401K money.
HEHEHE Says:
As somebody who grew up in Southern Ohio I can vouch that IQ’s drop dramatically north of Columbus.
As a Clevelander we consider everything south of I-70 to be Kentucky anyway.
Market says your stimulus package sucks.
A McMansion in every pot!
In fact, that is the problem. Everyone who thought their homes were worth loads of money and withdrew it “knowing” that the house would continue to appreciate thereby increasing/replenishing their “net worth” each year.
Well, the fat lady is singing.
Bystander
“Make Me Move” pricing is not “f-in brilliant” right now. Are these types of buyer-uppers fiscally smart? Who knows, I don’t know their personal finances. Sure, listing your house for 200 or more days at a peak-plus price doesn’t cost them a dime but it is no indication of their brilliance either.
Back to the article, which was the main reason I posted …
“A year ago, having a home that had appreciated in value meant that an owner could trade up to a more expensive home. Now it means that the homeowner cannot move until the old home is sold, and that is getting more difficult.”
It is not more difficult to buy up right now; it is more difficult to sell at 2005+ prices than it was in 2005. That’s where the NYT got this article wrong. And, they are the last people I will ever feel sorry for in this downturn, even though getting “the old home sold” is “getting more difficult.”
Al – point is their is a higher percentage of american cars made in america and even for the ones made in mexico the profits go to Detroit one of the worst hit cities in unemployment and housing. Buy an american made toyota and the profit goes to tokyo
Al Says:
January 18th, 2008 at 12:42 pm
American cars are nto made In America Anymore.
Just look at GM Truck factory in Linden… Moved to Mexico last year.
a 35 year old married couple with a stay at home wife who quit work at 33 would have had around 25 years worth of 401K contributions and in the 1993…
John,
Where can I send a 10 year old to work? Let alone at a job that would provide him with a 401k?
281 No massive urban riots? Rodney King – LA, 1992?
I don’t see why stock markets would not exist. It would depend how hyperinflation impacts the individual company’s. At the end of the day you own equity, a piece of the company. If the stock is in a company who has diversified overseas revenue, you’d probably make out alright. ie. ge today
al
In true hyper inflation (1000%+) a stock market cannot function, at least nit in the real world. In both the wiemar republic and in current zimbabwe you must spend the money as soon as you get it. A loaf of bread may cost 50K today, but tomorrow it may cost 150K. hyperinflation could be considered an extreme form of an unstable currency. A stock market cannot function in a meaningful manner when you have vale changes of hundreds of percent on a daily to weekly basis. In hyper inflation a fiat currency is for all intents and purposes WORTHLESS. in the wiemar republic, the value of the paper that they money was printed on was literally higher then the fiat value of the currency.
Beach Information
Is there a realtor on this site with Monmouth county (Eastern) MLS access? It would be great if someone could do similar analysis on beach area RE.
Grim –
I know you’re inundated with NNJ info but, are you allowed to join Monmouth MLS?
“Interesting point, should the payout be legal tender only for goods and services produced and delivered in the USA? (Insert inappropriate comment about American strippers and Makers Mark here).”
The best strippers only accept Euro’s, BP’s and gold.
You can always buy some Toyota Stocks, than profits will go to you………
grim Says:
January 18th, 2008 at 12:46 pm
Market says your stimulus package sucks.
grim: the market action to purely technical….ignore it
My problem – I only buy 5-10 years old cars. SO I am limited to Japaneese Brands…..
chicagofinance Says:
January 18th, 2008 at 12:53 pm
grim Says:
January 18th, 2008 at 12:46 pm
Market says your stimulus package sucks.
grim: the market action toDAY is purely technical….ignore it
“Make Me Move” pricing”
Make me buy.
Ann was one of the few rational buyers/sellers I’ve seen over the past 3 years. She adjusted to market conditions and successfully navigated a bad market. A lot of others have waited too long and are now out of luck.
#288
your staff is not true blue american either. your staff obviously doesn’t stimulate the economy, why else aren’t they going to get a gift card?
650k assets? when’d you last mark that to market?
#304,
great point. Make up your mind cause I need to get to the country clerks steps by 1:00PM
MM
my mattress just got $1,600 richer!
ps don’t try & rob me, i’m takin it in quarters
Orion,
Unfortunately, I’m not a member or Monmouth/Ocean.
I don’t have the exact amount, but it would probably cost me close to $1,000 to get access to Monmouth/Ocean MLS.
VMC 281, I agree.
Grim, how much for Hudson?
“NJ Patient your a rhymer now? huh what’s next? You gonna get your real estate license??”
Rhyming, I am a failed artist. I now have to work for a living. My skills do not translate to sales, however.
For awhile there I though about taking Donald Trump’s advice (you know, “if you do what you love, it’s easy to get rich”) but I quickly discovered that he was horribly wrong and that no one wanted to pay me to lie around in bed all day.
Mneer1,
if hyperinflation was a stable event then yes businesses and individuals could compensate. But I do not know of an example of a stable case of hyperinflation. Hyperinflation exists at a core level because people have lost faith in the fiat currency. A fiat treasury note is nothing but a promise of value. Once that trust is lost the system fails. That is why germany was only able to buy raw materials with gold bullion towards the end of WWII. Suppliers knew that hitler was going down and refused to take treasury notes that were “only a promise of value” they demanded payment in something that had inherent value , gold
Holy crap, I put in a few hours of work and the comments go well over 300 by 1 PM!
313,
work??? oopppss knew i was supposed to be doing something
#253 Al Most people did not leverage their homes to crazy levels and thus there is no need to sell right now. Nothing wrong that…they will pull up their sign and wait it out again. Good for them.
Most people I know did, and many of them should haev known better, considering they owned during the last real estate bubble and burst,a nd most highly educated professionals etc.
Since the announcement of the stimulus did not stimulate the market, who believes there will NOT be a 1pt FFR cut any day now?
pret,
I’ve got to see what Libery Board charges for MLS access.
Bystander (203)-
Only problem is: YOU put her on that high horse. She didn’t, and nobody else here perceives this attitude coming from her. In fact, I’ve never gotten that vibe from her, and I’m pretty damn sensitive to it.
I think you’ve read her wrong. Why don’t we call a truce and move on to the next train wreck?
Do a smaller % of Hudson County listings end up in an MLS compared to other NJ counties?
#232 scribe: i wonder how many of those modifications will really work.
Will many of these so called home owners, be stuck in the mud again 3 or 6 months from now?
kl (222)-
What you’re thinking about is the financial equivalent of giving a crackhead an 8-ball for safekeeping.
319
I agree
Bystander, my recollection is you’re usually a sensible chap. I think you may have just mixed your tea leaves a bit on this one.
make (242)-
“If they are going to hand out $200B in Debit Cards who is going to get the contract?”
My guess would be the same outfit who did the Katrina debit cards.
I’d also guess that Mike Brown is now a major shareholder in that company.
#208 Mike That is why I’m not buying unless its 30% off peak.
Oh do not worry Mike you will get it 30% off, and maybe more, and sooner rather than later.
“njpatient Says:
January 18th, 2008 at 11:01 am
the long, slow slog to -$200 continues apace…”
Whoh–oh!
We’re halfway there!
Whoh–oh!
Livin’ on a prayer!
#167 bystander; why so bitter?
Seems to me that you sound like the bitter one.
Husband 21-35 = 14 years of 401k
Wife 21-33 = 12 years of 401k.
Actually 26 years of 401K contributions.
DINKS have it made, they can put 31K a year in the 401K and actually have the money to do it with no kids and two incomes.
grim Says:
January 18th, 2008 at 12:49 pm
a 35 year old married couple with a stay at home wife who quit work at 33 would have had around 25 years worth of 401K contributions and in the 1993…
John,
Where can I send a 10 year old to work? Let alone at a job that would provide him with a 401k?
I’m looking to get some advice on my situation here. I bought a townhouse in Essex County in November ’06 and I’ve got a 5/1 Interest Only arm on my 1st mortgage (80%) and a 15 year fixed on the 2nd (15%) That one is a home equity line of credit. I put 5% down on approx $365,000.
Should I look to refinance into a 30yr fixed after the predicted 50 basis point cut at the end of this month? Does that cut even affect 30 year rates? I haven’t payed much of my principal off since the only principal is coming out of my 2nd loan. But looking on GSMLS at identical units as mine I see that units were selling for about $20,000 – $30,000 more then what I payed a year ago but today they are selling at about the same price.
That statement does not make sense to me. A nine year old camry goes for the same price as a 5 year old Taurus. American cars depreciate much quicker, which makes it a bad car to buy new and trade in 3-5 years later but a good car to buy used. The fact the car is newer and with lower miles than the same priced jap used car more than offsets the slightly higher reliability of the Jap car. Plus parts cost more on Jap car so less breakdowns will still equal same repair costs.
Al Says:
January 18th, 2008 at 12:54 pm
My problem – I only buy 5-10 years old cars. SO I am limited to Japaneese Brands…..
Seeking,
The rate cut is already priced into the bond market, so it doesn’t matter much if you wait.
Assumning your appraisal comes in and your credit is good, you might be better off refinancing sooner rather than later as the housing market continues to deterirote & lending standards continue to tighten.
JJ: watch your language a little please….profanity is fine; the other stuff makes my colon perforate….
How do you sleep at night?
Seeking Mortgage Advice Says:
January 18th, 2008 at 1:31 pm
I’m looking to get some advice on my situation here. I bought a townhouse in Essex County in November ‘06 and I’ve got a 5/1 Interest Only arm on my 1st mortgage (80%) and a 15 year fixed on the 2nd (15%) That one is a home equity line of credit. I put 5% down on approx $365,000.
Should I look to refinance into a 30yr fixed after the predicted 50 basis point cut at the end of this month? Does that cut even affect 30 year rates? I haven’t payed much of my principal off since the only principal is coming out of my 2nd loan. But looking on GSMLS at identical units as mine I see that units were selling for about $20,000 – $30,000 more then what I payed a year ago but today they are selling at about the same price.
John,
What do you mean how do I sleep at night? If you mean am I staying up worried about my finances… I make >100k working in NYC and my fiance makes a pretty decent salary. Can you be more specific?
Should I look to refinance into a 30yr fixed after the predicted 50 basis point cut at the end of this month?
I guess the first question is whether or not you can afford a 30y fixed along with the mortgage insurance you’ll be required to pay.
# 328 “Should I look to refinance into a 30yr fixed after the predicted 50 basis point cut at the end of this month? ”
In your shoes, I would be refinancing TODAY. The 30-year rates are low now.
Also, Grim et al., arn’t the long-term rates set in a manner that is disconnected from the FFR anyway?
seeking
your loan rates are also likely marked to the LIBOR rate , not the FED rate, just something to consider
chi – you mean his adjectival abbreviations of an ad hominem sort?
Interesting – according to my repair shop – Toyota Camry and Corolla parts are the cheapest around due to high abandace.
Another anecdotal evidence: I can do some of the small repairs myself. In my wife’s old POntiac – repairs were very hard to do due to design. In Toyota – it was quite easy. Average bill for repaires/year on 12 years old Toyota was about 300 (thats with buying one set of tires and breaks – nothing ever broke!!!).
Average bill on 7 years old Pontiac – I do not want to go there…. I do nto understant why I did not make my wife get rid of it two years earlier. it is just kept breaking.
Forgot to mention my rates:
1st is @ 6.375 and 2nd @ 8.25
If anyone can recommend a good mortgage person/company in the NJ area I’d appreciate it.
#334 Grim:
Is there a specific calculation/criteria that will help me determine that?
Hey Seeking Mortgage Advice I still stick to a mortgage that is more than 2x income. Unless you are making 700K a year, which you may be I would feel nervous with that much mortgage.
Get it appaised, use the 30K appreciation to get you closer to 20% equity, throw in a little cash and get a conforming fixed rate 30 year loan. The short term rate cuts of 2008 will cause inflation and will most likely cause long term rates to rise in 2009. Lock in low conforming 30 year now is a good opportunity.
seeking advice –
i think what you need to do is shop around to different lenders, and look at possible scenarios and crunch the numbers. only then will you really know what is out there for your specific situation and if it is worth pursuing.
Seeking,
The Fed sets short-term rates.
Long-term mortgage rates leverage off LIBOR or long-term Treasuries.
Therefore, if the Fed cuts short-term rates as expected, it doesn’t necessarily follow that long-term rates will drop as well. I think that with one of the recent cuts, short-term rates declined, but long-term rates (the 10-year T-bond?) went up.
Maybe someone who follows rates more closely can be more specific and explain it better.
But look at bankrate.com for the average rates on the different categories of mortgages.
You’re under the $417,000 limit so you’ve got a “conforming” loan, where the rates are better.
Just some input.
I don’t know the answer to your question.
You are soooooo 2007. In 2008 people go to banks for mortgages.
Seeking Mortgage Advice Says:
January 18th, 2008 at 1:46 pm
Forgot to mention my rates:
1st is @ 6.375 and 2nd @ 8.25
If anyone can recommend a good mortgage person/company in the NJ area I’d appreciate it.
Here is a great history lesson about tax increases/cuts and the effect on the economy.
I plead to the people to not elect a republican, else this country cannot be saved.
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/01/16/taxes-and-revenues-another-history-lesson/
Seeking,
There are going to be alot of factors that will play into whether or not a refi makes sense. I’d suggest shopping around at this point, it won’t hurt to do so unless you don’t want the inquiries on your account.
Valley and Hudson City have been all over the papers lately harping about how they can do low rates locally, give them a call and see if they can live up to their hype.
Thanks, will do.
An Open Letter to President George Bush:
Dear Sir,
I very much respect you as a great leader. You’ve done wonderful things in leading our nation after that dirtbag Bill Clinton was hounded out of office in embarrassment. Your entry into the oval office definitely improved the moral standing of the presidency. Your strong leadership in ridding the world of the threat of Saddam and your preparation in going after the Iranians is what makes this nation proud. I stand behind you 100%.
Sir, I have a slight problem with your stimulus plan. To be honest, I was expecting more money. As you know Sir, investment activity is the main driver in this economy and those who aren’t going to invest may not need as much money. I’d like to suggest that the stimulus plan be adjusted to skew the benefits towards those who have significant investments in real estate. In other words, the plan needs to be tiered such that those who invest get more than those who are just worked. Also, the stimulus needs to be targeted to encourage investments in real estate.
Sir, I believe if I got about $ 100,000, either in a direct rebate or a refundable tax credit, I myself could do much to create a multiplier effect from that money. Can you imagine what all other investors could so combined with this sort of stimulus?
Sir, I know you face a liberal controlled congress and a recalcitrant Fed chair, but anything you could do to support this would be very much appreciated by the investor class.
Thank you very much for your indulgence.
Your fellow American,
R. E. Investor 101
Hey Al, I drive a nine year old sable, I can go a full year without even putting a nickle into it. 300 for tires and brekes!!! I get a whole new set of tires at the junkyard for 80 bucks, I hate you show offs driving around in brand new tires. We are in a recession!!!! Plus a Pontiac is a poor mans caddie, of course the parts are expensive. The one good thing about my camry was there was plenty of cheap parts in junkyard and filters and plugs were cheap, but actual new parts were very expensive and the car was poorly designed. When my motor mount broke it cracked the exhaust, the timing chain repair at 60k is expensive and the rubber in the front struts crack at around nine years and that is a pain. The exhaust front to back is expensive. I ditched my camry in year nine cause it needed a boatload of repairs and it only had 48k miles. Timing chain, exhaust and struts were all going. My crappy sable I never even gave it a tune up or changed any fluids and it is chugging around.
Troll 1
You are $100k in the hole? Oh bother.
#348，I could not read the rest after “I very much respect you as a great leader”
Rich:
I’ve just about had it with you and your little comments here.
“Rich In NNJ Says:
January 18th, 2008 at 2:03 pm
Troll 1”
I get a whole new set of tires at the junkyard for 80 bucks,
Something funny here – I did nto know they sell New Tires at Junk-Yards.
When my motor mount broke it cracked the exhaust, the timing chain repair at 60k is expensive and the rubber in the front struts crack at around nine years and that is a pain.
The one good thing about my camry was there was plenty of cheap parts in junkyard and filters and plugs were cheap, but actual new parts were very expensive and the car was poorly designed.
Keep buying stuff in the Junkyard. Those parts are called used for a reason.
Sorry about your Camry… My camry is 14 years old, Still have original timing belt, water pump, NO major repairs – only New radiator (99 brand new), and new tires/breaks. The only parts of a car I am not willing to compromize on are Tires And Breaks!!! (think about it when you are riding at 75MPH on you Junk Yard Tires)
To RE Investor 101 – LOL
Troll101 2
312 Kettle
True, but unless your a financial company, you have tangible assets. These can be converted into other currencies regardless of your local denomination. From a balance sheet perspective, your AR just went to shlt but so did the counterparties AR, your liabilities. Net Net the Company still has value. If I were an investor, I would rather have a certificate that says I own a portion of XYZ Company than CD’s or Treasury’s.
My argument is that a market should be able to exist. It would represent something more like an FDR (foreign depository receipt)
this may be repeated…
Bush said that to be effective, an economic stimulus package would need to roughly represent 1 percent of the gross domestic product … around $145 billion …
reinvestor with your usual pinko commie symp political aspirations.
btw, telling GW about the embarrassment of a 70% approval rating is probably going to hurt his feelings.
Just sayin’
mneer 356
I see your point, and while it may work in theory, I dont think it would actually work in the real world. In the wiemar republic inflation happened so quickly that if you didnt spend it on the day you got it then you were essentially broke the next day. Consumer/producer sentiment also plays a big roll in markets and in the environment of hyperinflation i would think that the general sentiment would not foster stability.
I am not an economist so you may be exactly right
To Seeking Mortgage Advice:
Get the weekly HSH Associates report at http://www.hsh.com/statscoupon.html and start calling around. I’m on my second first mortgage with Hudson City Savings. They are usually 1/8 to 1/4 point above the very lowest NJ lenders, but they are very easy to work and close with. Very little paperwork because they do not sell their mortgages in the secondary market. A friend recently financed a house with Columbia Savings Bank, which usually has the lowest rates in the state (don’t know about APR though). I have no personal experience with Columbia, but my friend didn’t report any difficulties.
grim:
on mls: 2439294 and 2445420
did they close yet. thks.
Al well pretty new tires, same thing. Actually junk yard tires are a step up in college I did dumpster diving for tires and put them on ubalanced and still took my buick up to the 100mph club. My camry drivers seat belt I got from junkyard too. Now that is rolling the dice, used airbags are also up there. Also I hate about camrys are the cheap plastic door handles, when it is cold they crack off. your camry being older is better, Camry’s in the early ninetys were a much better car. Todays 2008 camry is not even as good as a malibu total garbage.
Best part about Camry was I got to go to junkyard a lot and hang round with cool guys in oily clothes with their name stiched on and talk manly men talk. Beats sitting in the waiting area at the dealer with screaming kids. Plus you can even drink a tall boy while getting your parts!!!!!
who would have imagened???
from NYTIMES
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/18/business/18norris.html?_r=2&ref=business&oref=slogin&oref=slogin
The ideal home buyer now — in a reverse of what was true for years — is a renter who is not burdened with a house. Such a buyer will need a down payment from somewhere, and he or she will need enough income to meet the monthly payments for the foreseeable future, including any increase in adjustable rates that seems probable……
John (344)-
Shoot me an e-mail thru Grim & I’ll send you a good NJ lender reference.
I do not like post-2000 cars as it is getting too complex mechanical/computerized and hard to repair by youself.
more parts – more stuff to repair.
P.S. I did hear that newer TOYOTA’s are not as reliable as they used to be. Do nto know is it is true.
“Letting Americans keep more of their money should increase consumer spending.” – W.
Mark,
60 Skyview closed, $540k on a $579k asking, the other is still UC.
The $150B stimulus Plan should be offset with Revenue as follows;
1. Surcharge on all Wall Street Bonuses for a total of $39B.
2. Appropriation of all assets from Executives involved in causing the problem, including Secretary Paulson (the CEO not the Academic) @ $11B.
3. Increased Capital Gains Tax on all Investors (That’s where the money is) & Special Surcharge on all CEO’s earning > $1M per year, on Income > $1M at 90% rate for a total of $100B.
Survey says, Stimulus Paid For.
366,
Herein lies the problem. Politicians care only about short term policies for popularity sake. Instant gratification for the masses. However, so does your average American, hence the negative savings rate. Unemployment is at 5% and somehow the economy went to the top of the list, not Iraq or foreign policy. It’s a game of hot potato, just keep pacing the deficit until it explodes.
“njpatient Says:
January 18th, 2008 at 1:18 pm
“njpatient Says:
January 18th, 2008 at 11:01 am
the long, slow slog to -$200 continues apace…”
Whoh–oh!
We’re halfway there!
Whoh–oh!
Livin’ on a prayer!”
and DOWN THE STRETCH THEY COME!!!
REI said:
Sir, I believe if I got about $ 100,000, either in a direct rebate or a refundable tax credit, I myself could do much to create a multiplier effect from that money. Can you imagine what all other investors could so combined with this sort of stimulus?
Lose their shirts all over again?
But thanks for the best laugh of the day.
“who would have imagened???”
kettle [363],
Also, who would have imagined buyers qualifying sellers.
confused [368],
You are confusing me.
Oh boy, this ain’t so good..
From MarketWatch:
Fitch cuts Ambac rating to AA from AAA
Fitch downgrades Ambac; ratings remain on watch negative
Word is that individuals making over $85 k and married couples making over $110k will not be given the opportunity to help stimulate our economy. The fear is that those of us making above these levels will simply piss the money away on savings and paying down debts, while lower income earners will perform their patriotic duty to spend our way to economic prosperity.
Bastards.
Once again, the stupid people are rewarded for their stupidity.
Good for Fitch, though.
Maybe some of the ratings folks can go fish their goodwill back out of the garbage can.
So does anyone still wonder why bush, cheney, buffet, bill gates, etc have moved large portions of their wealth out of the US dollar?
BC Bob Says:
January 18th, 2008 at 2:39 pm
confused [368],
You are confusing me
I was actually joking, sorry about that.
“Oh boy, this ain’t so good..”
JB [374],
The possible systemic risk is outright scary.
From Bloomberg:
Ambac’s Insurance Rating Cut to AA by Fitch Ratings
Ambac Financial Group Inc. became the first bond insurer to lose its AAA rating after Fitch Ratings downgraded the company.
Ambac Assurance Corp.’s ranking was lowered two levels to AA and may be reduced further, New York-based Fitch said today in a statement.
The downgrade “reflects the significant uncertainty with respect to the company’s franchise, business model and strategic direction.”
…
Without its AAA rating Ambac may be unable to write the top- ranked bond insurance that makes up 74 percent of its revenue. Ambac may have to stop making insurance or sell itself, said Robert Haines, an analyst at CreditSights Inc., a bond research firm in New York.
Ambac insures about $556 billion in municipal and structured finance debt.
Counterparty lesson # 2
Please read that last line over and over until you understand.
Sir, I believe if I got about $ 100,000, either in a direct rebate or a refundable tax credit, I myself could do much to create a multiplier effect
How so?
You will use it to pay back the amount you are underwater on your option ARM mortgage(s) so that you can sell your properties free and clear and end your nightmarish foray into playing real estate tycoon.
While this would benefit you, how does writing a check to some lender in China help stimulate the economy?
In fact, the economy might be more “stimulated” by giving you nothing and allowing your creditors to foreclose on you. This would create jobs for lawyers, sheriff deputies, credit counselors, repo guys, collection agents & realtors.
556$ billions… Pocket Change – Bush giving us 146 billions with one signature. surelly he has 4 more in store…
BC Bob, 379
May i suggest you re-read # 246
oh and grim is todays posting rate some sort of record?
kettle1 Says:
January 18th, 2008 at 2:53 pm
So does anyone still wonder why bush, cheney, buffet, bill gates, etc have moved large portions of their wealth out of the US dollar?
You forgot Greenspan, who acknowledged last year that he did.
Grim/Orion, I would kick in towards the Monmouth MLS.
“556$ billions… Pocket Change -”
There’s approx $50 trillion outstanding in cds.
Being serious for a moment, they would be more effective orchestrating an S&L type bailout for the Banks & Brokerages, then enhanced spending money at the Mall.