Weekend Open Discussion – Part II

Posted on January 18, 2008 by grim

Now Open, Part II!

Prior weekend thread closed due to comment overflow.

This entry was posted in General. Bookmark the permalink.

396 Responses to Weekend Open Discussion – Part II

  1. njpatient says:
    January 18, 2008 at 3:12 pm

    379
    I dunno, kettle.
    As far as I’m aware, Bush has had most of his net worth tied up in T-bills since he was elected.

  2. grim says:
    January 18, 2008 at 3:13 pm

    Sorry, but it was getting too difficult to read on my Blackberry.

    1,000 comment weekend?

    I think we get more traffic than Fox Business News.

  3. bewm says:
    January 18, 2008 at 3:15 pm

    Sounds like you need an iPhone :)

  4. Pebbles says:
    January 18, 2008 at 3:17 pm

    Grim,
    You highlighted: “Ambac insures about $556 billion in municipal and structured finance debt.”

    what does that mean?

  5. Hehehe says:
    January 18, 2008 at 3:17 pm

    Yeah help Citigroup etc buy an I-phone

  6. grim says:
    January 18, 2008 at 3:24 pm

    Ambac’s business is predicated on it having a AAA insurer rating. If you can’t trust the insurer, what good is the insurance they provide?

    If Ambac is at risk, the bonds they insure are at risk. Not at risk of defaulting, but at risk of losing that insurance. So what, you say? Well, the value of those bonds were determined based on that insurance, without it the value changes. As prices fall, we see more writedowns.

    Another risk here is that we start to see instruments like municipal bonds (backed by Ambac) start to see a drop in value, bonds that had nothing to do with subprime or mortgage securities. In addition, we may see the cost of insurance rise, which would mean municpalities would have to pay a higher rate on the bonds they issue.

  7. toshiro_mifune says:
    January 18, 2008 at 3:25 pm

    ISM to revise formula….
    Ahh, that’s the American way. When the formula isn’t producing what you want, change the formula!

    http://www.reuters.com/article/economicNews/idUSN1833418820080118

  8. grim says:
    January 18, 2008 at 3:27 pm

    iPhone? Give me the ability to tether my laptop onto a fast network and I’m sold.

  9. njpatient says:
    January 18, 2008 at 3:27 pm

    “Sorry, but it was getting too difficult to read on my Blackberry.”

    Much appreciated – I run into the same problem – it becomes impossible somewhere around 400 comments

  10. njpatient says:
    January 18, 2008 at 3:29 pm

    #6 grim
    there was a well-written WSJ article on the front page this morning on this issue; lays it out well for the lay-person. Mrs. patient read it to me over breakfast.

  11. grim says:
    January 18, 2008 at 3:30 pm

    Pebbles,

    This was posted in the mess of the old thread.

    Bond-insurer woes may trigger more write-downs

    A more worrying consideration is that when a bond insurer is downgraded, all the securities it has guaranteed are, in theory, downgraded as well.

    If Ambac and MBIA lose their top ratings, billions of dollars of muni bonds will be downgraded, and the guarantees that have been sold on mortgage-related securities such as collateralized debt obligations, or CDOs, will lose value.

    “The destruction of the bond insurers would likely bring write-downs at major banks and financial institutions that would put current write-downs to shame,” Tamara Kravec, an analyst at Banc of America Securities, wrote in a note Friday.

  12. skep-tic says:
    January 18, 2008 at 3:32 pm

    again, why Countrywide high interest CDs are not worth it (from WSJ):

    “After surging on news last week that Bank of America would acquire the struggling mortgage provider, Countrywide Financial’s stock has given all the gains back. With the stock down 7.3% to $5.08 today as the overall markets remain extremely skittish, it is now below the $5.12 it traded at before news of the deal surfaced Thursday. Bank of America has agreed to pay 0.1822 per share of its stock for each Countrywide share. With BofA stock at $35.50, that translates into a price of $6.47, a 27% premium to where Countrywide now trades. That indicates a healthy dose of market skepticism that the deal, scheduled for third-quarter completion, will get done.

    As this Wall Street Journal article today points out, there are escape hatches built into the deal for Bank of America, if, for example, Countrywide has misstated its earnings or violated accounting rules.”

  13. chicagofinance says:
    January 18, 2008 at 3:33 pm

    grim Says:
    January 18th, 2008 at 3:24 pm
    Another risk here is that we start to see instruments like municipal bonds (backed by Ambac) start to see a drop in value, bonds that had nothing to do with subprime or mortgage securities. In addition, we may see the cost of insurance rise, which would mean municpalities would have to pay a higher rate on the bonds they issue.

    grim: this effect has already occurred and is accelerating…..

  14. afe says:
    January 18, 2008 at 3:35 pm

    Pebbles,

    Thanks for asking that question

    Grim,

    Thanks for the answer

  15. chicagofinance says:
    January 18, 2008 at 3:36 pm

    skep-tic Says:
    January 18th, 2008 at 3:32 pm
    As this Wall Street Journal article today points out, there are escape hatches built into the deal for Bank of America, if, for example, Countrywide has misstated its earnings or violated accounting rules.”

    skep: banker I know who covers the “banking sector” basically said that if BOA gets queasy, there are several governmental entities that would grease the skids…..effectively make BOA litigation proof. However, the smart move is to stay the f— away from this….the CFC fixed income stuff is already massively overpriced in my book. At least there is some healthy skepticism in the equity markets…..

  16. Sean says:
    January 18, 2008 at 3:39 pm

    Ambac is back up. PPT is in overdrive, this time the State of new York is coming to the rescue.

    NEW YORK, Jan 18 (Reuters) – New York Insurance Superintendent Eric Dinallo on Friday said the state is closely monitoring the struggles of bond insurers and would be willing to help broker cash infusions or deals to keep these players afloat.

    “We are very mindful of the situation and are as reasonably on top of it as we can be,” Dinallo told Reuters on the sidelines of a press conference, where New York Governor Eliot Spitzer outlined plans to modernize the state’s financial services regulation.

    Dinallo declined to comment on the state’s efforts specific to AMBAC Financial Group (ABK.N: Quote, Profile, Research), a bond insurer that has been hammered by losses stemming from the mortgage crisis.

    “I can say one thing: We are there to help facilitate an injection of capital, if that ends up being the right idea, or if things go in the wrong direction, to do a quick rationalization of their situation,” he said.

    Dinallo said the state has broad authority and is working with other state and federal U.S. agencies on the matter of struggling bond insurers.

    “I think the role of the regulator has to be a facilitator. To speed in or somehow facilitate those possible bailouts or transactions, that is our number one goal as a regulator right now,” he said. (Reporting by Joseph A. Giannone; Editing by Brian Moss)

    http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUKN1850728520080118?rpc=44

  17. chicagofinance says:
    January 18, 2008 at 3:41 pm

    grim Says:
    January 18th, 2008 at 3:24 pm
    Another risk here is that we start to see instruments like municipal bonds (backed by Ambac) start to see a drop in value, bonds that had nothing to do with subprime or mortgage securities.
    grim: this effect has already occurred and is accelerating…..

    grim also…..this event has spooked everything…I sure the cascade of pressure forced the agency’s hands……SCARY – SCARY – SCARY stuff

    Las Vegas Default Highlights
    Commercial-Property Crunch
    By JENNIFER S. FORSYTH, MICHAEL CORKERY and TAMARA AUDI
    January 17, 2008; Page A1

    The credit crunch that roared through the residential real-estate market is starting to bite commercial projects, too.

    Yesterday, Ian Bruce Eichner, the developer of a twin-tower casino resort in the heart of Las Vegas, defaulted on a $760 million loan from Deutsche Bank AG after he failed to get refinancing. The default on the loan supporting the $3 billion Cosmopolitan Resort Casino is a signal of trouble for Mr. Eichner, who gained notice during an earlier real-estate downturn in the early 1990s when he lost several projects in New York City.

  18. njpatient says:
    January 18, 2008 at 3:42 pm

    bailouts are the number one goal.

    I have no doubt.

  19. chicagofinance says:
    January 18, 2008 at 3:43 pm

    Sean Says:
    January 18th, 2008 at 3:39 pm
    Ambac is back up. PPT is in overdrive, this time the State of new York is coming to the rescue.

    NEW YORK, Jan 18 (Reuters) – New York Insurance Superintendent Eric Dinallo on Friday said the state is closely monitoring the struggles of bond insurers and would be willing to help broker cash infusions or deals to keep these players afloat.

    Sean: you would have hoped Dinallo would have recommended an indictment under SarbOx…

  20. chicagofinance says:
    January 18, 2008 at 3:45 pm

    Do we finish with an 11-handle on the DOW?

  21. chicagofinance says:
    January 18, 2008 at 3:46 pm

    grim: 410 posts in one day before 4PM – WTF?

  22. schabadoo says:
    January 18, 2008 at 3:46 pm

    Rebate plan eligibility:

  23. Sean says:
    January 18, 2008 at 3:49 pm

    re: 19 chicagofinance

    Cramer said there would be no indictments. I believe I posted the video yesterday.

    Cramer interviewed Dinallo last week too.

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=621560760

    An amazing job the PPT has done so far.

  24. mneer1 says:
    January 18, 2008 at 3:53 pm

    So Fitch, who rated all that AAA MBS, which turned out to be crap, is now downgrading Ambac and effectively putting them out of business. The only reason Ambac and friends insured that paper was because they were led to believe by Fitch and the rating agencies that they were insuring credit worth paper.

  25. Marito says:
    January 18, 2008 at 3:54 pm

    Hi guys,
    can anybody help with some info? From GSMLS, MLS#2472896 and #2474745. From Realtor.com, MLS#2474763. Thanks a lot!

  27. skep-tic says:
    January 18, 2008 at 4:06 pm

    interesting quote (lifted from Dealbreaker):

    The singular feature of the great crash of 1929 was that the worst continued to worsen. What looked one day like the end proved on the next day to have been only the beginning. Nothing could have been more ingeniously designed to maximize the suffering, and also to ensure that as few as possible escaped the common misfortune. The fortunate speculator who had funds to answer the first margin call presently got another and equally urgent one, and if he met that there would still be another. In the end all the money he had was extracted from him and lost. –John Kenneth Galbraith, “The Great Crash”

  28. gary says:
    January 18, 2008 at 4:08 pm

    Hey, does anyone know how much meth I can buy with $800?

  29. Clotpoll says:
    January 18, 2008 at 4:13 pm

    mneer (24)-

    A friggin’ shell game, if there ever was one.

  30. kettle1 says:
    January 18, 2008 at 4:15 pm

    gary,

    google say about $100 per 1/8 ounce

  31. schabadoo says:
    January 18, 2008 at 4:18 pm

    (Trying again)

    Rebate plan eligibility:

    85k single
    110k couple

    How does that make sense?

  32. njpatient says:
    January 18, 2008 at 4:18 pm

    “How does that make sense?”

    Because Bush hates marriage?

  33. Confused In NJ says:
    January 18, 2008 at 4:20 pm

    WASHINGTON (AP) — President Bush embraced as much as $150 billion in tax relief on Friday to jump start the lackluster economy. If Congress passes an economic stimulus package, the country will be “just fine,” he said.

  34. Confused In NJ says:
    January 18, 2008 at 4:22 pm

    1.njpatient Says:
    January 18th, 2008 at 3:12 pm
    379
    I dunno, kettle.
    As far as I’m aware, Bush has had most of his net worth tied up in T-bills since he was elected.

    The probably have a Special Issue T-Rex-Bill, backed by Gold in Ft Knox, for elected officials.

  35. Confused In NJ says:
    January 18, 2008 at 4:24 pm

    We need to see what Corzines Pension losses are in the Market.

  36. Pebbles says:
    January 18, 2008 at 4:26 pm

    thanks for explaining Grim

  37. Sean says:
    January 18, 2008 at 4:27 pm

    re: (33)

    “just fine” he would have been better off saying “Th-th-th-that’s all folks!”

  38. Clotpoll says:
    January 18, 2008 at 4:33 pm

    Thought everyone would enjoy today’s thoughts from a local competitor of mine- and Kool-Aid drinking NAR shill- John Bendall:

    “As most of you know I will be going to South Africa to speak, leaving on February 4th for 2 weeks. Heading out of town can be hectic with all of the packing, preparing, planning, phoning, etc. When I get out of town, it thoroughly clears my thoughts…gets me out from in front of the trees and lets me see the forest for what it is. Let’s me see things at an eagle-eye level.

    Imagine a line going from left to right at a sharply upward angle. That is the growth line, but life hits you in the face and sometimes you drift off that line and down….That is the joy of learning, implementing, reading, and listening to CDs…it keeps you on the line! Taking the time to step back and review your life, your family, and your business at a macroscopic level can do wonders for re-positioning yourself for success. This bird’s eye view will make you more money, create more happiness for you, and put things in perspective. Ready for a lesson with your breakfast? (Isn’t life a poor teacher? Nine times out of 10, we get the lesson AFTER the test, unlike in the classroom!)

    You have a choice. Every day, every moment, every event dictates a choice for you. You have the choice on how to react to those events. Two master teachers tell us how to look at this:

    Stephen Covey (Seven Habits of Highly Effective People) describes it as Stimulus + Gap of Time à Response described as between stimulus (what happens to us) and response (how we react) there is a gap of time. The human species is the only one who doesn’t live on instinct. We have a choice in our response.

    Jack Canfield (The Success Principles, Chicken Soup for Soul books, FOCUS, etc.) describes it from his first chapter of The Success Principles (Take 100% Responsibility for Your Life) as E + R = O. Event plus Response equals Outcome. What you get out of a situation is your reaction to the situation.

    Both give a glorious outlook! We have a choice! Only YOU can make YOU feel miserable. Only YOU can make YOU happy! Isn’t that an amazing, beautiful thing?! Sometimes people look at me weird because I am ALWAYS positive. There is ALWAYS a positive outcome for anything. EVERYTHING happens for a reason. Doesn’t that just clear things up for you? Isn’t that some “Windex for your Lighthouse?”

    What is making you miserable, stressed, unhappy? Look in the mirror…and smile. You have a choice! You can do something about it.

    One of the key common characteristics of high achievers…optimism. Things ARE going to be great.

    Count your blessings for they are many!”

    This, from a man who will actually praise Barbara Corcoran in print and appear on MSNBC to sound the “all clear” siren.

    If S. Africa is smart, they should bar his entry into the country.

  39. Ann says:
    January 18, 2008 at 4:34 pm

    grim, you really should put ads on this site.

    At least a coffee ad or something harmless like that.

  40. t c m says:
    January 18, 2008 at 4:40 pm

    RE:85k single
    110K couple

    everywhere i read, i see that the plan is for either all filers, or only for all those who file and actually pay taxes – but i didn’t see an income cut off. last time, if i remember correctly, there was no income cut off –

    where is this information coming from on this cutoff?

  41. Essex says:
    January 18, 2008 at 4:43 pm

    39….Anne, grim said he didn’t want to ‘monetize’ the site. I think he has plans to pimp out housewives from Bucks County for $$ though.

  42. Clotpoll says:
    January 18, 2008 at 4:43 pm

    Ann (39)-

    Here’s my ad submission:

    http://tinyurl.com/2gsxcp

  43. Essex says:
    January 18, 2008 at 4:43 pm

    How to make your mortgage payment in 3 sleazy steps.

  44. njpatient says:
    January 18, 2008 at 4:47 pm

    “If S. Africa is smart, they should bar his entry into the country.”

    That should be standard practice with respect to anyone who quotes both Seven Habits of Highly Effective People AND Chicken Soup for Soul.

  45. njpatient says:
    January 18, 2008 at 4:48 pm

    I’ll bet he also quotes “The Art of War” on a frequent basis.

  46. Clotpoll says:
    January 18, 2008 at 4:49 pm

    Just to confirm…this was not me. From the AP:

    “U.S. Capitol Police arrested a man carrying a shotgun outside the Capitol building Friday, authorities said.

    The man was in custody and no one was injured, police spokeswoman Sgt. Kimberly Schneider said.

    An officer first spotted the man near Union Station, about two blocks from the Capitol. The man’s vehicle had “items of concern” inside and was being searched, Schneider said.

    The man’s name was not immediately released.”

  47. John says:
    January 18, 2008 at 4:49 pm

    NEWS FROM REUTERS THIS WEEK ALONE!!!!!!!

    UBS to Revamp Investment Bank, Cut Risk
    Banks to Suffer Into 2009 as Credit Crunch Drags – S&P
    Merrill Lynch Takes $14.1 Bln Writedown
    Bank of NY Mellon Profit Falls 72 Pct, CDOs Hurt
    Washington Mutual Posts $1.87 Bln Fourth-Quarter Loss
    BB&T Fourth-Quarter Net Up 64 Pct; Operating Profit Falls
    Countrywide Deal Has $160 Million Termination Fee
    BlackRock Profit Up 90 Pct, Credit Turmoil Helps
    PNC Financial Profit Falls 53 Pct
    JPMorgan Profit Drops on Bigger Consumer Credit Woes
    Wells Fargo Fourth-Quarter Profit Falls 38 Percent
    Northern Trust Profit Falls 27 Pct After Charge
    Japan Banks Set to Invest in U.S. Rivals – Paper
    Deutsche Bank Cuts Up to 300 Investment Banking Jobs
    Citigroup Raising $14.5 Bln, Cuts Dividend, Posts Loss
    Merrill to Raise $6.6 Billion From Kuwait, Japan
    U.S. Bancorp Fourth-Quarter Profit Falls 21 Percent
    U.S. Mortgage Lender IndyMac Slashes 2,403 Jobs
    Bank of America to Cut 650 Jobs, Sell a Brokerage
    Mortgages, Credit Hurt M&T Bank, Sovereign Bancorp
    M&T Bank Fourth-Quarter Profit Sinks 70 Pct
    Citigroup Stake Sale May Meet China Opposition – WSJ
    U.S. Mayors Face Test of Spreading Foreclosures
    CIBC to Sell C$2.75 Bln Shares to Offset Writedowns

  48. njpatient says:
    January 18, 2008 at 4:50 pm

    46
    I knew right away that it wasn’t, clot. There was no mention of a rusty grenade launcher.

  49. Clotpoll says:
    January 18, 2008 at 4:55 pm

    “I’m good enough, I’m smart enough, and doggone it, people like me.”

    -Stuart Smalley

  50. Confused In NJ says:
    January 18, 2008 at 4:55 pm

    According to preliminary calculations, the Dow Jones industrial average, which was up more than 180 points early in the session, fell 59.91, or 0.49 percent, to 12,099.30. The Dow plunged 306 points Thursday amid deepening pessimism about the economy.

    The broader Standard & Poor’s 500 index fell 8.06, or 0.60 percent, to 1,325.19, while the technology-focused Nasdaq composite index dropped 6.88, or 0.29 percent, to 2,340.02.

    For the week, the Dow and the Nasdaq lost 4 percent, while the S&P 500 gave up 5.4 percent. In the 13 trading sessions of the 2008, the Dow has lost nearly 9 percent, while the S&P has fallen 9.75 percent and the Nasdaq nearly 12 percent.

    The week’s sell-off left the Dow and the S&P 500 well below their October highs — which had the Dow at a record trading high of 14,198.09. The Dow has fallen more than 2,000 points, or 14.6 percent, while the S&P 500 is down nearly 240 points, or 15.3 percent.

  51. chicagofinance says:
    January 18, 2008 at 5:03 pm

    Clotpoll Says:
    January 18th, 2008 at 4:33 pm
    Thought everyone would enjoy today’s thoughts from a local competitor of mine- and Kool-Aid drinking NAR shill- John Bendall:

    clot: The guys sounds like a Scientologist….

  52. BC Bob says:
    January 18, 2008 at 5:05 pm

    “Imagine a line going from left to right at a sharply upward angle. That is the growth line, but life hits you in the face and sometimes you drift off that line and down….”

    Clot [38],

    I can see it it my sleep. 4 year trendlines in the spoos, support violated, now resistance.

    I hope your buddy practices what he preaches.

  53. HEHEHE says:
    January 18, 2008 at 5:05 pm

    Re Rebate:

    I agree 85K and 110K on the East or West Coast is not much money. It certainly isn’t “upper middle class”. You could argue it’s barely middle class.

  54. Confused In NJ says:
    January 18, 2008 at 5:06 pm

    Looks like Stock Market is retraced to September 2006. Following Housing, it should Normalize around September 2003, with S&P at 1000.

  55. BC Bob says:
    January 18, 2008 at 5:25 pm

    By the way, there are major growth plans at Finra.

    “Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. faces a $1.14 billion claim from members of a New Jersey family, who say the firm mishandled their fortune by steering $286 million into investments that have become hard to sell.”

    “Brian and Basil Maher, two brothers who sold their family’s marine container company last year, say Lehman ignored their requests to place the proceeds in short-term, liquid assets, according to an arbitration complaint filed yesterday with the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority.”

    “Instead, the Maher brothers say, Lehman put the money into so-called auction-rate securities that have been hit by the contraction in credit markets. The arbitration claim may be the largest filed against a U.S. brokerage since a surge in defaults on subprime mortgages last year prompted investors to shun high- yield debt.”

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aMvCcBjj9w9M&refer=home

  56. afe says:
    January 18, 2008 at 5:41 pm

    For some reason I have had this nagging feeling since yesterday that the whole ‘Tatiana attacks taunting youth episode’ is playing out in the financial arena.

  57. Clotpoll says:
    January 18, 2008 at 5:50 pm

    ChiFi (51)-

    “The guy sounds like a Scientologist….”

    ChiFi, Scientologists are more grounded in reality.

  58. Clotpoll says:
    January 18, 2008 at 5:57 pm

    BC (52)-

    “I hope your buddy practices what he preaches.”

    Har! Back in the day, Countryslide paid him 5K/month to set up an “office” within his. Those days are way gone.

    Now, you walk into his 9,000 sf of spendor…and are greeted by lights off and empty desks.

  59. Artemis says:
    January 18, 2008 at 6:07 pm

    Cramer is actually discussing the bond insurer situation on Mad Money right now. He predicting “a couple of thousand points” loss in the DOW if they go under.

    Of course, he wants the government to buy the insurers to save us all.

  60. Confused In NJ says:
    January 18, 2008 at 6:12 pm

    Forget rate cuts and stimulus packages. In Wall Street’s eyes, the recession is already here and the credit crunch is far from over.

    This month’s huge selloff in the stock market reflects the double-whammy being felt by investors: shrinking economic growth and continued uncertainty over the extent of the subprime mortgage mess.

    “The damage is done, ” says Ely. “The house burned down. We now have to rebuild the house. The fed is the fireman. Continuing to squirt water on it doesn’t do any good.”

  61. Clotpoll says:
    January 18, 2008 at 6:12 pm

    Art (59)-

    Hate to say it, but the gubmint might have to. Even Buffett can’t cover all the insurance action…and the monolines don’t have the $$$ to pay off all the crap that’s going belly-up.

    If the insurance is worthless, the bond it insures is worthless, then all the dominoes start falling the wrong way.

  62. Confused In NJ says:
    January 18, 2008 at 6:23 pm

    61. Clotpoll

    Hate to say it, but the gubmint might have to. Even Buffett can’t cover all the insurance action…and the monolines don’t have the $$$ to pay off all the crap that’s going belly-up.

    If the insurance is worthless, the bond it insures is worthless, then all the dominoes start falling the wrong way

    Sticky Wicket, what with the gubmint being Bankrupt & All.

  63. Sean says:
    January 18, 2008 at 6:45 pm

    RE: 59 & 61

    You need to plug everything he says into the Cramer translator.

    What Cramer said:

    Take the stimulus money and instead buy out the positions of the monolines, buy the company just like the commies would do. If the Government doesn’t bail out MIBA, AMBAC and the rest of the monolines to the tune of 250 Billion to 500 Billion they will go belly up as will several banks. If that happens the market will tank.

    Translated:

    If the government does not move quickly my buddies will all be broke and I will be out of a job. Also if the government pays out on CDO/SIV losses then my buddies can create new ways to re-inflate the credit bubble.

  64. Richard says:
    January 18, 2008 at 6:46 pm

    good friend of mine used to work at fitch on the IT side. said the models are 15 years old, undocumented and not well understood due to quant turnstile. basically they’re lost and only in business due to SEC selection.

  65. Artemis says:
    January 18, 2008 at 6:57 pm

    The moral hazard resulting from bailing out these gamblers and bookies infuriates me.

    I’m ready for the house of cards to fall. I’m playing mancala anyway.

  66. BC Bob says:
    January 18, 2008 at 7:08 pm

    Buffet’s bond insurance subsidiary will step in and write reinsurance on the muni’s, in case of an Ambac failure. He’ll make a fortune. Structured credit? Good luck, he has been a major critic of this.

    I would imagine there are risk manger’s working all weekend, trying to figure who they are in bed with.

  67. chicagofinance says:
    January 18, 2008 at 7:34 pm

    Sean Says:
    January 18th, 2008 at 6:45 pm
    RE: 59 & 61

    Sean Paul: I appreciate the cynicism, and Cramer is f—ball, but I actually think he is shooting straight for once.

  68. kettle1 says:
    January 18, 2008 at 7:34 pm

    how about this for the official “counter party ” get together logo

    http://i267.photobucket.com/albums/ii314/kettle1111/counterparty.jpg

  69. kettle1 says:
    January 18, 2008 at 7:35 pm

    regarding the logo….that was quick and dirty, but i was inspired

  70. Just me says:
    January 18, 2008 at 7:40 pm

    GRIM

    you get more trafick on thsi blog becouse you GUYS are better than CNBC ,,,,,:))
    More fun as well :)))

  71. Future RE Investor says:
    January 18, 2008 at 7:43 pm

    Question for RE Investors….

    I’ve read that its best to hold your RE investments in a LP / LLC to limit the liability in case a suit (accident, etc.) happens. Sounds reasonable to me.

    My question is, which legal formation, LP or LLC is best for the state of NJ?

  72. Kid Twist says:
    January 18, 2008 at 7:54 pm

    Saw Kramer on Hardball tonight. Says the Dow could drop 2k overnight because the companies that insure the mortages do not have the cash to cover them. Said no one is talking about this and it could come as soon as 2 weeks. Also said recession started LAST MONTH.

  73. BC Bob says:
    January 18, 2008 at 7:56 pm

    Cut to zero. You can’t push more crap thru a backed up septic system.

    Dead man walking;

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EpCcelpvkps

  74. Clotpoll says:
    January 18, 2008 at 7:56 pm

    Fut (71)-

    LLC, for sure.

  75. gary says:
    January 18, 2008 at 7:57 pm

    48 hours ’till the end of Brett Favre’s career.

  76. BC Bob says:
    January 18, 2008 at 8:01 pm

    [72]

    If you analyze the bls [employment] #’s you’ll realize that we are in a recession. Please separate birth/death #’s.

    A consumer slowdown causes a recession. However, if you lose your job it’s a depression.

  77. PGC says:
    January 18, 2008 at 8:05 pm

    #59 Buffet will skim the cream of the Munis and Blue Chip leave the rest to fail. He will make a packet as the only game i town.

    That said, if the insurers go under, you can wav goodbye to any M&A activity. That could wipe out another 2K off he down when companies post negative numbers next year.

  78. Frank says:
    January 18, 2008 at 8:09 pm

    #73,
    This is typical panic talk, the reality is that all the bonds have been priced as if they had no insurance, so Cramer is just taking a lot of hot air. He needs to stop drinking coffee just like the rest of Wall St. and everything will be fine.

  79. 3b says:
    January 18, 2008 at 8:11 pm

    Relax everybody Kudlow says its OK, do not worry.

    We are working this out, it just takes time And he is still a Bull!!, long term, (whatever that means) (Although now Cramer said today he is officially a Bear),and then Kudlow went on with his free markets etc etc.,and with a straight face.

  80. 3b says:
    January 18, 2008 at 8:12 pm

    #78 Frank:This is typical panic talk, the reality is that all the bonds have been priced as if they had no insurance.

    When did that happen? Not in munis it didn’t

  81. 3b says:
    January 18, 2008 at 8:14 pm

    #76 BC Bob:A consumer slowdown causes a recession.

    Shhhhhh, we cannot use the R word.

  82. Frank says:
    January 18, 2008 at 8:34 pm

    #80,

    “Most muni bonds insured by Ambac and MBIA are now trading as if there isn’t any insurance, Richard Larkin, a municipal-trading desk analyst at JB Hanauer & Co., commented Friday.
    “The market has lost all faith in bond insurance and the ratings agencies,” he said. “Prices are being discounted because people wonder whether there is any value to the insurance.”
    http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/bond-insurer-woes-may-trigger-more/story.aspx?guid=%7B590076D4%2DFB70%2D4304%2DB6B4%2DC444A554401C%7D&dist=MostReadHome

  83. Richie says:
    January 18, 2008 at 8:35 pm

    Mortgage firm exec jumps to death; wife’s body found home

    A high-ranking executive of a collapsed subprime mortgage lender jumped to his death from the Delaware Memorial Bridge on Friday, shortly after his wife’s body was found inside their Burlington County home, authorities said.

  84. njpatient says:
    January 18, 2008 at 8:35 pm

    “Bond-insurer woes may trigger more write-downs”
    That can’t be true! bi said there’d be no more writedowns!

  85. Frank says:
    January 18, 2008 at 8:37 pm

    #78,
    Cramer is just a talking bubble head, ignore him, Britney is more entertaining than him.

  86. sas says:
    January 18, 2008 at 8:43 pm

    wait a minute….

    I thought RE only goes up, and you can’t lose with RE in NJ?

    are you telling me the Gold Coast has lost its glitter?

    ; )

    SAS

  87. Confused In NJ says:
    January 18, 2008 at 8:49 pm

    83. Mortgage firm exec jumps to death; wife’s body found home

    A high-ranking executive of a collapsed subprime mortgage lender jumped to his death from the Delaware Memorial Bridge on Friday, shortly after his wife’s body was found inside their Burlington County home, authorities said

    I thought you were only allowed to jump if it was a Depression?

  88. Outofstater says:
    January 18, 2008 at 8:49 pm

    Bond insurers, stimulus package – none of it matters. It’s all coming apart, slowly but inexorably. Maybe I need a scrip for some happy pills so I can be happy and cheerful and clueless like Kudlow. But honest to God, watching Kudlow is easier than watching “Mr. Hop Like A Bunny” this afternoon. It was too painful – I had to turn it off.

  89. nino says:
    January 18, 2008 at 8:49 pm

    Does anyone know how much title insurance costs on a purchase of a single family home in Middlesex County?

    Can I use my own title company or sould I use the one my lawyer recommends?

  90. BC Bob says:
    January 18, 2008 at 8:52 pm

    Frank,

    What exactly are you trying to say?

  91. Frank says:
    January 18, 2008 at 8:53 pm

    #89,
    It depends on the purchase price, and what sucks about NJ insurance law you need to get it for 100% of your purchase price, even if you only want 50%. I would shop around, but your mortgage company may have limitations.

  92. Frank says:
    January 18, 2008 at 8:58 pm

    #90,
    I am saying that the bond insurance news is overblown, everyone knows that they are gone that’s why CDO and muni prices have dropped like a rock. This is old news. Cramer should have recommended a put strategy on MBI and AMBAC when they were at 90, instead of trying to scare people right after he recommends buying hundreds of stocks in 3 seconds.

  93. 3b says:
    January 18, 2008 at 8:59 pm

    #88 It’s all coming apart, slowly.

    Actually its coming apart pretty fast now.

  94. Essex says:
    January 18, 2008 at 8:59 pm

    Is the reason why everybody hates ‘pensioners’ so much…..because no one can save any money…..?

  95. njpatient says:
    January 18, 2008 at 9:05 pm

    chi 19
    “Sean: you would have hoped Dinallo would have recommended an indictment under SarbOx…”

    hell yeah.

    and guys – on the question of built-in outs for CFC, you can always just read the merger agreement

  96. 3b says:
    January 18, 2008 at 9:07 pm

    #82 Frank: It’s just happening, and my friends left in the business tell me thee is very little bid and ask quotes going on.

    In other words nobody quite knows how these things should be priced now. AAA insured with no underlying ratings, AAA insured with underlying AA, or single A.

    How much do you spread these things from a high grade uninsured muni, 25bps, 50bp?

    That is still to be determined, as the muni market gets its arms around this mess.

  97. gary says:
    January 18, 2008 at 9:09 pm

    47 hours ’till the end of Brett Favre’s career.

  98. Essex says:
    January 18, 2008 at 9:10 pm

    Wow just think if all the arrogant ivy league trained bond traders had to find real jobs.

  99. Frank says:
    January 18, 2008 at 9:14 pm

    #96,
    The muni funds have to value their holdings daily and the drops have not been so dramatic, check out some charts.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=ETNJX
    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=VNJTX

    Also, insurance or not the underlying municipalities have strong cash flows and good balance sheets (except NJ) so insurance does not matter.

  100. Clotpoll says:
    January 18, 2008 at 9:17 pm

    Frank (91)-

    You purchase title insurance for your lender (you can also get an owner’s title policy, but it’s optional). You’re insuring their interest in the house.

    I doubt any lender would be happy with a policy for half the price of the house.

  101. njcoast says:
    January 18, 2008 at 9:20 pm

    Orion(#299 last thread)- I have access to the Monmouth/Ocean/Middlesex Counties MLS. I live in an eastern Monmouth County beach community so maybe I could help you out.

  102. njpatient says:
    January 18, 2008 at 9:22 pm

    “Hate to say it, but the gubmint might have to. Even Buffett can’t cover all the insurance action…and the monolines don’t have the $$$ to pay off all the crap that’s going belly-up.”

    Meaning you and I buy the re-insurance idiots with our tax dollars, so as to make sure the banks (BofA, Lehman, Merrill, Bear, Wamu, Cit, etc.) don’t have to acknowledge that they were playing a massive shell game creating massive fake profits, leading to massive real bonuses (just ask pretorius).

    In short, you, me and Mrs. Shirley Latimer of Dubuque will have paid the bankers a massive amount of straight up cash to reward them for profits that didn’t actually exist. They’ll have successfully finished robbing us blind with no repercussions whatsoever.

    But at least we’ll get $800.

  103. njpatient says:
    January 18, 2008 at 9:22 pm

    yeah – I’d rather see the banks go under, in case that wasn’t clear.

  104. Essex says:
    January 18, 2008 at 9:24 pm

    WAMU death watch…..

  105. Cindy says:
    January 18, 2008 at 9:30 pm

    Sorry to bother you all but can you help?
    My daughter lives in Washington state. Remembering my old banking days ..I advised them to get out of their ARM (they had a year to go) and lock in a 30 yr. rate of 5.85 fixed. She is continuing to get flyers and just saw the rate of 5.4.
    I think there isn’t supposed to be a direct connect between Bernenke cuts and RE but will the fixed rate for RE continue to drop too?

    They have no pre pay but did pay closing costs of about 4000. I figured she could recover the 4000 in 3 years if it dropped to 4.5. Silly me – I thought the rates would fly up any day ala Volker… “Well dear, I remember when folks were happy to have a 12% home loan.” I only had my past experience to draw on now I don’t know what to say.

    I explained that the appraisal process will probably get stiffer..income to loan etc. The property there is basically holding its own but has slipped some (about an hour from Seattle.)Any thoughts?? Throw away the flyers and feel happy? Thanks

    And Ann..sorry I had to leave for work..I missed quite a bit there. Good job of explaining …Thanks #320 Clotpoll.

  106. Clotpoll says:
    January 18, 2008 at 9:41 pm

    Cindy (104)-

    Mortgages track the 10 yr Treasury, which is a market- not Fed- influenced rate. That being said, my best guess is that the 10- and mortgage rates- will drift downward.

    We’ve been in a bit of a refi boom since 1/1, as rates on 30 fixed have steadily dropped (a top-credit borrower can pull 5.75%- at least- right now). You have to also keep in mind that mortgage rates also reflect the market of money (supply) looking for borrowers (demand). When viewed thru the eyes of Mr. Market, there’s gonna be a lot of money looking for a borrower pretty soon.

    Tell your daughter to get a couple of referrals to quality lenders. If she can eventually pick up something in the low 5’s, a refi could be worth it. However, keep in mind that your daughter should only undertake this if she has pristine (over 700-FICO) credit. New Fannie Mae underwriting guidelines- which have already been baked into today’s product- impose surcharges of 50-250 bps for sub-700 FICOs. That’s way too much of a load to make a refi worth it.

  107. njpatient says:
    January 18, 2008 at 9:45 pm

    “I’m ready for the house of cards to fall. I’m playing mancala anyway.”

    Yep.

  108. njpatient says:
    January 18, 2008 at 9:48 pm

    “Buffet’s bond insurance subsidiary will step in and write reinsurance on the muni’s, in case of an Ambac failure. He’ll make a fortune. Structured credit? Good luck, he has been a major critic of this.”

    BC, this is exactly right. He’ll scoop up all the easy stuff, make a fortune cornering the market, and leave the structured crap to rot on the roadside. He had enough of that when they bought General Re, which was a deal I worked on, and I think the exercise of trying to figure out what the heck line of business GR actually turned out to be in has stuck in his mind.

  109. mikeymike says:
    January 18, 2008 at 9:53 pm

    Can someone provide the history for GSMLS #2412843?

    This property is in a flood zone in Oakland, but owner claims it has not flooded in 7 years. Anyone familiar with the area have any insights?

  110. Cindy says:
    January 18, 2008 at 9:54 pm

    Thanks Clot (105)
    She’s over 800..I know that. I remember getting my refi w/ Wells. They sent me a “close at home mortgage kit.” no lie. All I had to do was go to a notary – no fees
    8/31/03 – 4.75%. But things are changing so quickly…I don’t know what to think any more. I’ll pass that along..Thanks again, Cindy

  111. njpatient says:
    January 18, 2008 at 10:00 pm

    “That said, if the insurers go under, you can wav goodbye to any M&A activity.”

    50% of it’s already gone whether or not the insurers go under. Falling stock prices, in a vacuum, aren’t good for M&A activity, let alone a credit/solvency crisis.

    What kind of acquisition can a bank make if (a) they have so little cash that they have to beg for spare change from the local saudi prince and (b) their stock is worth 60% less than it was a few months ago.

    What kind of acquisitions will PE funds make when they can’t syndicate the loans?

    I am aware of at least one eleven-figure acquisition from late last year where the banks got left holding the bag for the entire credit facility including the bridge loan and they’re VERY unhappy about it.

    There are ugly times coming, and I’m not even sure that Tom, Dick and Harriet pooling their tax dollars to buy the re-insurers is going to do a damn bit of good.

  112. njpatient says:
    January 18, 2008 at 10:05 pm

    82 Frank
    You seem to have completely missed the point. All those bonds are going to have to go back on the books of the actual bagholders. And when the tide goes out, there will be some nekkid banks on the beach.

  113. Confused In NJ says:
    January 18, 2008 at 10:16 pm

    You elect Ross Perot. He put’s all the Wall Streeters back to work in light manufacturing, especially Leather Tanning & Dress Making, in NYC.

  114. Clotpoll says:
    January 18, 2008 at 10:16 pm

    CIndy (109)-

    “close at home mortgage kit”

    A modern version of the “kitchen table closing”?

  115. Essex says:
    January 18, 2008 at 10:19 pm

    112…………..Anyone who coined the phrase “giant sucking sound” should be honored with some office in government today.

  116. njpatient says:
    January 18, 2008 at 10:21 pm

    114 – that was Perot? I thought it was Linda Lovelace.

  117. chicagofinance says:
    January 18, 2008 at 10:23 pm

    Clotpoll Says:
    January 18th, 2008 at 9:41 pm
    Cindy (104)- If she can eventually pick up something in the low 5’s, a refi could be worth it.

    clot: IMHO Susan Olsen’s daughter might actually want 5-area or less. I am a serious NPV dude, not just payback period…..

  118. chicagofinance says:
    January 18, 2008 at 10:27 pm

    Essex Says:
    January 18th, 2008 at 10:19 pm
    112……….Anyone who coined the phrase “giant sucking sound” should be honored with some office in government today.

    at 1:55 – but did he coin it? I don’t know….
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g48hGrSsOPo

  119. Clotpoll says:
    January 18, 2008 at 10:30 pm

    Chi (116)-

    I thought you were negative NPV. :)

  120. Cindy says:
    January 18, 2008 at 10:31 pm

    (113) Clot – I kind you not. I’m looking at the thing. It’s bound with a couple of staples on top and a shiny brown cover with a guy driving a stagecoach. Looks pretty down-home now that ya mention it.

    It took nothing but a couple of phone calls.
    It must of been one of those times when they were looking for “demand.”

  121. Essex says:
    January 18, 2008 at 10:32 pm

    Sluuuuuuuuuuurp. Perot was prescient.

  122. JBJB says:
    January 18, 2008 at 10:32 pm

    On my 4th glass of Red Zin, but jamming out to Bruce’s “Greetings from Asbury Park, NJ”. This place (NJ) must have been cool at one point, what the hell happened?

  123. Essex says:
    January 18, 2008 at 10:37 pm

    JBJB…………taxes…………..Newark…………….

  124. Confused In NJ says:
    January 18, 2008 at 10:37 pm

    Romney proposes $250 bln economic stimulus package 1 hour, 57 minutes ago

    LAS VEGAS (Reuters) – Weighing in on a debate about stimulating the slowing U.S. economy, Republican presidential contender Mitt Romney is calling for a package of tax breaks expected to cost $250 billion, an aide said on Friday.

  125. Essex says:
    January 18, 2008 at 10:38 pm

    I want my $100k…..now that is a rebate….(reinvestor101’s only good idea so far)

  126. Clotpoll says:
    January 18, 2008 at 10:40 pm

    Cindy (119)-

    In ’03, the FFR was 1% (thanks, Al).

    This time around, we go Japanese (all the way to 0, baby!). Chi might be right about that sub-5% thing.

    At that point, we can stop worrying about rates. The biggest problem will be an economy that’s suspended in amber, like some sort of bug. Not to mix metaphors, but we’ll be jolting the flat-lined patient with the juice turned up to 10…and nothing will happen.

  127. Clotpoll says:
    January 18, 2008 at 10:41 pm

    Confused (123)-

    Romney? Pander?

    Banish the thought…

  128. Essex says:
    January 18, 2008 at 10:42 pm

    Dow 8500.

  129. Clotpoll says:
    January 18, 2008 at 10:44 pm

    And where better for Romney to wh@re it out than Vegas?

    Somebody should drag that Mormon into a casino and teach him a lesson about gambling.

  130. Confused In NJ says:
    January 18, 2008 at 10:44 pm

    Before NAFTA was approved, Ross Perot made a memorable reference to the “great sucking sound” made by the loss of US jobs. That colorful description has proven to be correct. More will follow if CAFTA and FTAA are allowed to pass. Another sucking sound will be the loss of national sovereignty to support the citizens of every nation in the hemisphere against the growing power of the multinational corporations.

  131. Clotpoll says:
    January 18, 2008 at 10:45 pm

    Wait. Hand me the pliers…

  132. Confused In NJ says:
    January 18, 2008 at 10:47 pm

    124.Essex Says:
    January 18th, 2008 at 10:38 pm
    I want my $100k…..now that is a rebate….(reinvestor101’s only good idea so far)

    Only if it’s in Gold, we don’t want the FEDS Weimar Dollars.

  133. Cindy says:
    January 18, 2008 at 10:49 pm

    Clot (126) If it was 1% in 03 what is it now – pre 0 or -5 I mean – like today?
    I do remember having a 403b in Putnam that I got out of in a hurry..was that about the same time?…can’t remember…

  134. Confused In NJ says:
    January 18, 2008 at 10:49 pm

    127. Essex Says:
    January 18th, 2008 at 10:42 pm
    Dow 8500.

    Greenspan thought Dow 6000 was irrational, you may be a tad high.

  135. chicagofinance says:
    January 18, 2008 at 10:50 pm

    ya’ gotta wait until minute 9:15, but the classic is there…..

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7-W4GWjN2kg&NR=1

  136. BC Bob says:
    January 18, 2008 at 10:55 pm

    “On my 4th glass of Red Zin, but jamming out to Bruce’s “Greetings from Asbury Park, NJ”. ”

    JBJB,

    Spirit in the Night, Crazey Janie and the Mission Man and good ole Greasy Lake. Yes, there was a time when Jersey was Prime.

  137. Marito says:
    January 18, 2008 at 10:56 pm

    Hi guys,
    I’m reposting this from earlier in the thread.
    Can anybody help me with some info? GSMLS# 2472896 and GSMLS #2474745. From Realtor.com, MLS#2474763. Thanks a lot!

  138. Cindy says:
    January 18, 2008 at 11:03 pm

    10 year t-note 3.63 is that the one tied to 30 year interest rates?

  139. chicagofinance says:
    January 18, 2008 at 11:13 pm

    Cindy Says:
    January 18th, 2008 at 11:03 pm
    10 year t-note 3.63 is that the one tied to 30 year interest rates?

    C: yes, due to the average maturity of a 30YF mortgage being 8-9 years (I forget). Then you must tack on a credit spread which usually adds 150-175 bps (1.50-1.75%). However, spreads have “widened” due to current market conditions. That reason is why you see product priced with higher interest rates that what would be expected under normal conditions.

  140. Cindy says:
    January 18, 2008 at 11:19 pm

    Hi Chicago -(138) Thank you! Hey – all disclaimers and all…but I so went with the MM portion of my American funds a few days back… for now.
    If they give me $800 – you know it is going into my new S/A with that 416. a mo.
    Thanks again…

  142. njpatient says:
    January 18, 2008 at 11:21 pm

    “Red Zin”
    The only kind – what a grape!

  144. Greg says:
    January 19, 2008 at 1:30 am

    The US Dollar is on its death bed.

  145. lostinny says:
    January 19, 2008 at 3:20 am

    I cannot believe I am up and there are so many posts in a day. I miss so much with my pesky jobs that get in the way.

  146. JC says:
    January 19, 2008 at 6:11 am

    Looks like you’ve got some comment spam there, grim. I had one of these last week over at my blog and it completely f***ed up my load time.

    Cindy #109: I did one of those Wells Fargo quickie $350 refis too, back in 2004. I had a quote @ 15/4.75% from another lender, called Wells, told them I’d stay with them if they would match it, and they matched the rate and sent me the package. $350 app fee and four bucks for the notary (I have him $20, though — he’s a diabled man and I would have felt like a cheapskate only paying him a buck a sig/seal.

    Request to all: When you post articles, could you please post links if the source sites are open (i.e. not subscription based)? All business-related sites are blocked where I work (too many people trading stocks on work time) and sometimes I want to read the entire article later. Thanks.

  147. grim says:
    January 19, 2008 at 6:36 am

    Marito,

    MLS# 2474745
    17 Montague Place, Montclair
    OLP/LP: $350,000
    DOM: 7

    MLS# 2472896 – Monster short sale or foreclosure
    12 S. Stanley Road, South Orange
    OLP/LP: $284,900
    DOM: 9
    Purchased: 10/31/2005
    Purchase Price: $425,000

    MLS# 2474763 (was listed as 2403924)
    395 Turrell Ave, South Orange
    Listed: 05/06/07
    OLP: $450,000
    LP: $369,000
    DOM: 200+
    Purchased: 1/8/2004
    Purchase Price: $335,000

  148. grim says:
    January 19, 2008 at 6:44 am

    Montville Comp Killer:

    125 Ridge Road, Montville NJ

    Purchased: 5/18/2006
    Purchase Price: $475,000

    MLS# 2424652
    OLP: $483,700
    LP: $449,900
    DOM: 163

    Sold: 1/18/2008
    Sale Price: $432,500

  149. grim says:
    January 19, 2008 at 6:57 am

    From MarketWatch:

    Fitch Downgrades 420 ABS Bonds Following Ambac Rating Downgrade; Watch Negative

    Fitch Ratings downgrades 420 classes of asset-backed securities (ABS) Additionally, the ratings remain on Rating Watch Negative by Fitch. This action follows Fitch’s downgrade of the ratings on Ambac Financial Group, Inc. and its affiliated entities (Ambac).

  150. Clotpoll says:
    January 19, 2008 at 7:58 am

    Cindy (133)-

    Current FFR is 4.25%.

    At least, for a few more days.

  151. Cindy says:
    January 19, 2008 at 7:58 am

    I know you folks do this everyday but I just read over yesterday’s “market snapshot” in the local Fresno Bee. Right there in print it said..
    “The dollar dipped against other major currencies on concerns that any tax rebates included in an economic stimulus package could swell the budget deficit. That could undermine the country’s debt.”

    Well if I can read that..can’t Bush or Bernanke? (When I lived in the NW, folks would travel to Canada because of the 84 cent/dollar advantage. Now it is $1.03 for Canada.) Having only just now paid any attention, at least I’m admitting it, how fast/far HAS the dollar fallen – say over the last 3 months?

    Something else funny to me..I looked at the commodities..wheat..why? Because Oprah had a lady on yesterday who flat out said “wheat is difficult to digest as we age.” “Try oat or other grains.” Is there such a thing as “the Oprah effect?”

  152. Clotpoll says:
    January 19, 2008 at 8:00 am

    Cindy (138)-

    Yes. The 10 has rallied 25 bps in a short amount of time, and that drop has been reflected in mortgage rates.

  153. Clotpoll says:
    January 19, 2008 at 8:09 am

    Cindy (151)-

    “Oprah had a lady on yesterday who flat out said “wheat is difficult to digest as we age.” Is there such a thing as “the Oprah effect?”

    When Oprah can influence the commodity pits, that’ll be one of the signs of the apocalypse.

    Thank ethanol for the new, wacky world of commodities. It’s all about corn.

    Re: Bernanky/Paulson and the dollar: don’t you know both those guys are on record as being strong dollar advocates? They are doing whatever it takes to keep our dollar strong. ;)

  154. grim says:
    January 19, 2008 at 8:10 am

    Not sure how I missed this one. From the WSJ:

    Fannie to Cut Dividend 30%
    By KEVIN KINGSBURY
    January 18, 2008 2:44 p.m.

    Fannie Mae said it will proceed with a planned 30% dividend cut in the current quarter, lowering the payment to 35 cents a share from 50 cents.

    The U.S. housing finance giant said last month its board planned to approve the dividend cut in January.

    At the same time it announced the planned dividend reduction, Fannie disclosed it would issue $7 billion in non-convertible preferred stock in an effort to boost capital and “conservatively manage increased risk in the housing and credit markets.”

  155. Clotpoll says:
    January 19, 2008 at 8:11 am

    Come to think of it, I’d like to see Oprah walk into the pits in Chicago and get elbowed in the face.

  156. Cindy says:
    January 19, 2008 at 8:24 am

    (Clot) Here’s the good news..I’m just some Joe Smo trying to protect what little I have and seeking information to do so. I’m gonna talk to folks and others are going to seek info as well. It is not a perfect world but when the going gets tough…etc.

    I don’t want to irk anyone by sounding “all rosy” because clearly conditions dictate that is shear insanity. But..that being said..the internet is a relatively new tool for the dissemination of information that offers masses of people real news. That is good! Thanks to hard-working people like you and Grim..and countless others.

    Grim, I do not have much but I’m hitting the donate button today. Never have I had the opportunity to learn so much from experts….not college..not on the job..not anywhere.

  157. Cindy says:
    January 19, 2008 at 8:35 am

    That was easy… Receipt number and everything…Pay Pal -ingenious

  158. Cindy says:
    January 19, 2008 at 8:41 am

    And another thing..anyone with a brain in their head will spend that $800 on A COMPUTER and do a little research…

  159. Ann says:
    January 19, 2008 at 8:51 am

    109 mikeymike

    Oakland is a nice town.

    The flood the owner is talking about was from Hurricane Floyd and the Ramapo River really flooded in those flood-prone parts. I remember hearing they were going to do something with the river after that to help so it wouldn’t flood like that anymore, so the owner could be right, that they haven’t had any flood problems again.

    Anyway, definitely buyer beware on that house, but even if that house doesn’t work out, I wouldn’t rule out the entire town.

  160. Shore Guy says:
    January 19, 2008 at 9:00 am

    #51 ChiFi-

    “The guy sounds like a Scientologist….”

    Does this mean we will soon see Lawrence Yun jumping up and down on Prhra’s couch screaming “It is a great time to buy real estate!”?

    # 126 The key is to go to 11

  161. gary says:
    January 19, 2008 at 9:04 am

    36 hours ’till the end of Brett Favre’s career.

  162. Shore Guy says:
    January 19, 2008 at 9:12 am

    I wonder what the Bloomberg and Dobs issue says about the process for picking major-party presidential candidates. Looking at the current crop, it is hard to believe that these are the best candidates this nation can produce. I suspect that the ones who would be the best have at some point in their past been in rehab, frequented a whore, cheeted on a spouse, yadda yadda. This process where we give a colonoscopy to personal traits and largely ignore policy statements does not seem to be working very well.

    To paraphrase the poem, “Give me your tired your teeming mass of voters yearning for a non-putz to run for office a candidate who understands economics and our constitutional system.”

    http://blogs.usatoday.com/onpolitics/2008/01/draft-lou-dobbs.html

    ‘Draft Lou Dobbs’ effort launched by ‘Legal Immigration PAC’
    Add “Draft Lou Dobbs” to the efforts by independents to bring another candidate into the presidential race.

    The movement was launched today by Americans for Legal Immigration. The group, in a press release, praises the CNN host for “his tough stance on border security and curbing illegal immigration. While encouraging voters to register as independents, Dobbs addresses a host of issues dealing with the economy, trade agreements, election integrity, and America’s middle class that would appeal to Democrats, Republicans, and independent voters alike.”

    William Gheen, who heads the organization and its political action committee, says in that release that Dobbs “could run and win because he could easily raise the funds and grassroots support he needs to be a historic and viable candidate quickly. The public is eager to rebuke the D.C. status quo and would quickly rally to Dobbs.”

    Would Dobbs do it? “I cannot say never,” he told The Wall Street Journal earlier this month, about presidential speculation.

    Yesterday, a Draft Bloomberg effort was launched by fans of New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg.

  163. Shore Guy says:
    January 19, 2008 at 9:13 am

    160, YOUCH!! that was one heck of a typo. Phra???? Yeesh. Corrected text follows.

    #51 ChiFi-

    “The guy sounds like a Scientologist….”

    Does this mean we will soon see Lawrence Yun jumping up and down on Ophra’s couch screaming “It is a great time to buy real estate!”?

  164. Shore Guy says:
    January 19, 2008 at 9:15 am

    Opraha even! I NEEEEED some coffee in here. Stat! lol.

  165. grim says:
    January 19, 2008 at 9:15 am

    The NAR “Please buy now” campaign in full force.

    I especially like the quick and quiet disclaimer at the end of the advertisement, “market conditions may vary”.

    IMHO, any advert that discusses past appreciation should be required to carry the standard disclaimer..

    Past performance may not be indicative of future results

  166. Marito says:
    January 19, 2008 at 9:20 am

    Hey Grim, thanks for the information!

    GSMLS 2472896 is listed as REO. At least the listing agency has REO as part of its name! The truth is that the house is not only listed at 67% of its 2005 purchase price, but also at 51% of its 2008 tax assessment. If you bought that house today for 285K with 10% down, you would be paying more in property tax than in mortgage.

    My question is: what are the chances of fighting that assessment in court, considering that it is way above the 2005 purchase price (which should be the height of the market) and also way way above the current offering price of the house?

  167. mikeymike says:
    January 19, 2008 at 9:20 am

    159 Ann,

    Thank you so much for your insight on Oakland. I have a appt to go look at the house in about an hour. Supposedly, the Army Corps of Engineers fixed the dam after Floyd. I figure if the area didn’t flood after the rains in April 07, it’s pretty safe.

  168. Shore Guy says:
    January 19, 2008 at 9:26 am

    In case this got lost in the economic news of yesterday:

    http://www.app.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080118/NEWS0301/80118080

    TRENTON — A four-count lawsuit filed by Warren County against the state challenging the constitutionality and equity of the Highlands Water Protection and Planning Act was dismissed Friday by a Superior Court judge.

    The suit was filed by the Warren County Board of Chosen Freeholders along with nine property owners from Hunterdon, Morris and Warren counties.

    Superior Court Judge Paul Innes dismissed two complaints because the issues — the funding of the “transfer of development rights” program and the drawing of the land boundaries — were addressed in the state’s favor in an prior case last year.

    “You can’t run away from the language,” said Innes. “… They still speak about the issues we have here.”

    The complaint regarding the failure to adopt a Regional Master Plan for the act by the Highlands Council can only be reversed in an appellate court, said Innes. The final complaint about land owners with larger parcels of land was unfounded, said Innes, because owners have other avenues to seek relief.

    Signed into law in 2004 by then-Gov. James McGreevey, the Highlands Act looks to
    preserve open space and protect drinking water for some 5.4 million people, according to the state Department of Environmental Protection.

  169. Everything's 'boken says:
    January 19, 2008 at 9:30 am

    167
    Yikes

  170. Shore Guy says:
    January 19, 2008 at 9:31 am

    # 166 “what are the chances of fighting that assessment in court, considering that it is way above the 2005 purchase price (which should be the height of the market) and also way way above the current offering price of the house?”

    Inasmuch as assessed values are just an attempt to estimate market values, I would assert that your chances of challenging the assessment are good. After all, if the house were worth more, it would have sold for more. The market has spoken. And, unless the town does a revaluation of all properties inthe short term, the buyer of that home should get some real tax benefits relative to the neighbors. Once the reassessment occurs, though, everyone’s values will drop and the rate will go up in order to allow the town to get the necessary (well, desired) funding.

  171. grim says:
    January 19, 2008 at 9:32 am

    Marito,

    Your decision to purchase shouldn’t be predicated on the ability to knock down the assessment and reduce your property taxes.

    My opinion? Very unlikely. The assessment is in-line with the neighboring properties. If, by chance, you were likely to reduce your assessment, the best you could do would be a few hundred dollars.

  172. Shore Guy says:
    January 19, 2008 at 9:32 am

    # 167,

    Doesnt Federal Flood Insurance only cover up to $250,000 of home value? If the house has ever flooded, or come close, I would never buy it without flood insurance. If the value of the structure is much above $250,000, I would be leery.

  173. Shore Guy says:
    January 19, 2008 at 9:34 am

    # 170 and 171

    This is something I love about this place, one can get a whole range of perspectives.

  174. Shore Guy says:
    January 19, 2008 at 9:35 am

    And where would they go?

    http://www.app.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080118/NEWS0301/80118091/1004/NEWS01

    Toll hikes would shrink road use more than 20% to 30%, study says

    TRENTON — Roughly four of every 10 trucks would leave the New Jersey Turnpike by 2022, and seven of 10 would find ways around Route 440 by then, the year of the sharpest toll increases proposed by Gov. Jon S. Corzine, according to a consultant’s
    study released Friday.

    About three out of every 10 cars would leave the Turnpike by 2022, according to the study by British consultants Steer Davies Gleave. The study was commissioned by Corzine to provide background traffic and revenue information on his plan, but administration officials Friday cautioned that not all projections prove accurate in the long run.
    [snip]

  175. Frank says:
    January 19, 2008 at 9:39 am

    #100,
    What about if you take mortgage at 50 LTV, you should be able to get insurance for 50%? What about if buy a house with no mortgage? It would only make sense to pick your coverage amount, but not in NJ. Title insurance is the biggest scam!!! I hope the title insurance companies go of the way of MBIA and AMBAC!!

  176. grim says:
    January 19, 2008 at 9:46 am

    Shore #173

    I should have provided the rationale for my statement.

    I pulled tax assessments as well as prior sales listings for the immediate area.

    That house is right in the middle of assessed values in the neighborhood.

    1 STANLEY 195000 12694.5
    2 STANLEY 140000 9114
    5 STANLEY 226800 14764.68
    6 STANLEY 177000 11522.7
    8 STANLEY 150000 9765
    10 STANLEY 186000 12108.6
    11 STANLEY 155000 10090.5
    12 STANLEY 178800 11639.88
    14 STANLEY 150000 9765
    14 STANLEY 159600 10389.96
    15 STANLEY 196700 12805.17
    17 STANLEY 177900 11581.29
    18 STANLEY 189600 12342.96
    20 STANLEY 136500 8886.15
    22 STANLEY 188600 12277.86
    25 STANLEY 190000 12369
    25 STANLEY 160000 10416
    26 STANLEY 260400 16952.04
    28 STANLEY 162500 10578.75
    31 STANLEY 162300 10565.73
    32 STANLEY 150000 9765
    33 STANLEY 190000 12369
    33 STANLEY 179400 11678.94
    34 STANLEY 268500 17479.35
    39 STANLEY 191000 12434.1
    39 STANLEY 178700 11633.37
    40 STANLEY 170000 11067
    40 STANLEY 165000 10741.5
    42 STANLEY 136300 8873.13
    43 STANLEY 173200 11275.32
    46 STANLEY 165000 10741.5
    48 STANLEY 241900 15747.69

    Average assessment is $179,740
    Average tax bill is $11,701

    Subject property assessment is $178,800
    Subject property tax bill is $11,639

  177. scribe says:
    January 19, 2008 at 9:50 am

    This is from a segment last night on Night Line on the upcoming primary in Nevada:

    Our guide in Sin City is Chris Parks, who at 28 is starting his third career.

    Until recently he worked as a mortgage broker. But the mortgage boom dried up last summer so now he drives a limo.

    Parks has been paying attention to the campaign, but despite his interest in politics, he won’t be participating Saturday.

    “I actually can’t vote,” he said, “because I am a convicted felon.”

    His first career — car thief — didn’t work out too well either.

  178. Pebbles says:
    January 19, 2008 at 9:50 am

    question on investing.. is the only “safe” investment right now a money market or your savings account?

    I don’t understand the bond thing that was discussed earlier, I’m assuming it would be dangerous to switch into investing in them or mutual fonds comprised of short term bonds?

    sorry for the novice investing questions

  179. Marito says:
    January 19, 2008 at 9:51 am

    Grim,

    for me, one of the beauties of getting into a 30 year fixed deal is that, if you don’t refinance, your monthly payments get smaller and smaller in real dollars as time and inflation do their jobs. That won’t happen in relation to property taxes because they’ll keep stable or even increase in real dollars.

    My ‘real’ intention (if that can be defined) is to buy a house in the range of 300-350 K and pay taxes accordingly. That’s where a super deal as this REO looks actually bad. I would be getting more house, for a price under my budget, but in no time the 4K above budget in taxes would become a real concern.

  180. Frank says:
    January 19, 2008 at 9:52 am

    #112,
    Please educate me. What bagholders and beach are you talking about?

  181. grim says:
    January 19, 2008 at 9:53 am

    Shore,

    Perhaps Corzine’s goal is to turn the toll roads into Luxury Superhighways for the rich?

    I don’t know about you, but I’d love the ability to drive down to AC in my Aston Martin without having to worry about the unwashed plebes coming too close to my car.

    $50? $60? A bargain.

    But only if they replace the toll booths with velvet ropes and silk gloved toll takers. Is a drive-thru Starbucks at each toll too much to ask for?

  182. scribe says:
    January 19, 2008 at 10:05 am

    From today’s WSJ:

    REVIEW & OUTLOOK

    The Panic Stage
    January 19, 2008; Page A12

    In his book “Manias, Panics and Crashes,” the economic historian Charles Kindleberger describes the stages of financial boom and bust. Students of the good professor will recognize where we now are in the current credit crisis: the panic stage. It isn’t a pretty sight, but a crash is far from inevitable if political and economic leaders keep their wits about them and focus on the proper remedies.

    Amid the daily market turmoil, and to help prevent a crash, it helps to step back and remember how we got here. With the benefit of hindsight, everyone can see that the U.S. economy built up an enormous credit bubble that has now popped. Our own view — which we warned about going back to 2003 — is that this bubble was created principally by a Federal Reserve that kept real interest rates too low for too long.

    In doing so the Fed created a subsidy for debt and a commodity price spike. The price spike contributed to “excess savings” in countries with a low propensity to consume and which channeled that money back to the U.S. That capital flow and debt subsidy, in turn, became fuel for smart people in mortgage companies, investment banks and elsewhere to exploit. In a sense they created a new financial system — subprime loans, SIVs, CDOs, etc. — that is enormously efficient and brought capital to new places. But thanks to low interest rates and human enthusiasm, this debt spree also got carried away. This was the mania phase.

    Thus we were told that rising housing prices were no problem, even as they climbed by 20% or more a year in some markets. Demographics and immigration could explain the boom. Credit spreads narrowed to unheard-of levels, but neither lenders nor investors seemed to mind. The rating agencies added their AAA blessing, and financial CEOs basked in rising earnings from investments they little understood.

    The political class now attributes this to greed and fraud, and there is some of that in any mania. But most was the product of creative Americans responding to the incentives for debt that the Fed created. The politicians also enjoyed the boom while it lasted, spending the tax revenues, feasting off Fannie Mae campaign dollars, and celebrating the spread of home ownership. No one wanted it to end, which is why there was so much caterwauling once the Fed did begin to remove the debt-subsidy punch.

    This does not mean that this decade’s growth has been illusionary, any more than the 2000 bursting of the dot-com bubble means growth in the 1990s was fake. Enormous wealth was created in both periods, new industries have developed, and in the current decade there has been a genuine global boom. The excesses have been based mainly in housing and finance, and that is what now threatens the larger economy.

    Enter the panic stage. The desire for debt has turned into a stampede to quality, especially Treasury bills. The same folks who never predicted the economy would recover in 2003 are now cheerleading recession. Any bank writedown or deal to raise capital — no matter that it is part of the healing process — is taken as a sign that there is more bad news to come.

    Meanwhile, the politicians plot to “stimulate” the economy by dropping dollars from the Capitol dome. We are also told the Fed funds rate must chase the 90-day T-bill rate down to the levels it reached when we had negative real interest rates — never mind the anemic dollar and soaring commodity prices. The danger now is that this panic becomes a self-fulfilling prophesy and talks us into a crash.

    There are two ways in which a crash could happen. The first is insolvency of one or more financial institutions that triggers a systemic failure. The second is a loss of global confidence in U.S. financial management and the dollar. Neither has to happen.

    On the first, progress is already being made. Banks and mortgage companies are taking back their off-balance sheet assets, writing off losses, and seeking new capital. There seems to be no shortage of such capital available, and this is a healthy sign. Meanwhile, the Fed has been making creative use of its discount window, with new auctions and accepting different collateral to help ailing institutions that need to borrow. This outlet has already helped to reduce the credit spreads that ballooned late last year, and is calming lending markets.

    We are only in the early stages of this repair operation, and no doubt some companies will fail. The task for regulators is to avoid surprises that cause more panic and above all to prevent systemic contagion. Warren Buffett’s recent entry into the troubled bond insurance market is another sign of the marketplace helping to heal itself. In cases where there is real systemic risk, the government through the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation may have to rescue some institutions. In those cases, the equity holders need to be zeroed out and the management replaced. The overriding goal is to keep the banking system functioning.

    As for the other crash scenario, we wish the Fed hadn’t squandered so much credibility this decade. Then it might be better placed to reduce interest rates as fast and as far as Wall Street and Donald Trump are demanding. But with prices rising and the dollar as weak as it’s been since the 1970s, the Fed has less room to maneuver.

    Expectations of further easing have already caused oil and other commodity prices to surge in a way that robs much of the stimulus from lower rates. Higher food and gas prices have hit consumers hard and are part of the reason for reduced consumer spending. The worst case would be a global run on the dollar that left the Fed no choice but to tighten money dramatically.
    * * *

    So what to do? Pass a tax cut that is immediate, marginal and permanent. In the “stimulus” grab bag that President Bush is contemplating, the only growth driver is bonus depreciation. Congress will be worse. As for the Fed, continue with the regulatory triage, but ease as little as it can get away with and slowly restore the monetary credibility that was so painfully earned in the 1980s.

    This recipe may or may not prevent a recession, though we’d note that so far the underlying economic indicators suggest slower growth rather than a contraction. What these policies would do is prevent today’s panic from becoming something much worse.

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120070247843301883.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

  183. Essex says:
    January 19, 2008 at 10:15 am

    I know that fifty dollar parkway tolls mean that the trucking firms that are too broke to put decent brakes and tires on their trucks will probably not be able to use those roads. Too bad. Perhaps we’ll also price out some senile retirees who should have put away the Crown Vic years ago. I like open road and so does my bimmer.

  184. Frank says:
    January 19, 2008 at 10:24 am

    #182,
    I agree, car is a luxury if you can’t afford it, use a bus or train, like myself. Tolls and gasoline tax should have been raised years ago instead of the sales tax. GSP tolls should be at least $5 each, tunnel tolls should be at least $20, gasoline should cost at least $10 a gallon.

  185. scribe says:
    January 19, 2008 at 10:30 am

    grim, #182 is in moderation

    column from the WSJ

  187. chicagofinance says:
    January 19, 2008 at 10:46 am

    gary Says:
    January 19th, 2008 at 9:04 am
    36 hours ’till the end of Brett Favre’s career.

    gary: I am a Jets fan. Tiki was on Charlie Rose last night. The guy is a f—ing piece of $hit. All you have to do is calculate 2+2…..he leaves the team, the team goes to the Conference Title Game and cue ball is volunteering that, while he is a Giants fan, it would be a great story if Favre goes to the Super Bowl and beats the Patriots. I’m thinking….wow – you are a serious a—–e. You can think that, but don’t say it on TV.

  188. chicagofinance says:
    January 19, 2008 at 10:48 am

    Essex Says:
    January 19th, 2008 at 10:15 am
    Too bad. Perhaps we’ll also price out some senile retirees who should have put away the Crown Vic years ago. I like open road and so does my bimmer.

    SX: a nice retired squad car Crown Vic certainly gives you open road too….it freaks out everyone down to the speed limit and the center lane…..

  189. Essex says:
    January 19, 2008 at 10:51 am

    188….exactly! I hate those things.

  190. Essex says:
    January 19, 2008 at 10:52 am

    Tiki…..took Woody’s millions…..damn him.

  191. Essex says:
    January 19, 2008 at 10:53 am

    Oops….I mean John’s millions…..*brain fart

  192. chicagofinance says:
    January 19, 2008 at 10:54 am

    Pebbles Says:
    January 19th, 2008 at 9:50 am
    question on investing.. is the only “safe” investment right now a money market or your savings account? I don’t understand the bond thing that was discussed earlier, I’m assuming it would be dangerous to switch into investing in them or mutual fonds comprised of short term bonds?
    sorry for the novice investing questions

    P: It has more to do with the intended use of your money….my opinion is that you are not wise to yank it out of the market. However, if you think you will use it before the beginning of 2010, then yes move it a “safe” place…AND DON’T PUT IT BACK!

  193. Essex says:
    January 19, 2008 at 10:57 am

    I rode bonds up prior to the tech crash and used that $$$ for a down payment on my house….now all of my money is tied up in exotic under garments.

  194. 3b says:
    January 19, 2008 at 11:09 am

    #170/171 There is a house in my town that has been for sale for over 18 months, it is empty. It was assesses in the 800’s, and the taxes were over 17k.

    The hous is now down to an asking price of 599K, still sitting, the owners has the house reassessed, and the taxes were reduced to around 13k. It still has not sold.

    This is the current listing for the house njmls 2738976

  195. John says:
    January 19, 2008 at 11:10 am

    This site is getting a little off track. Why are people on this site even considering buying houses. 2008 is a wipe out. People have not adjusted their prices. Traditionally, we need the banks and homebuilders to start to turnaround before single family homes turn around. We have not even found a bottom for banks and homebuilders so how can we be talking turn around for single family homes which is further down the food chain.

    If you skip buying a house right now you can bank money each money while home prices fall each month. Who cares about catching the bottom, you are better missing it by a few months.

    AAA rated Muni GO bonds of NJ that are 1-5 years out are a screaming buy now. ING and Fidelity lets you buy them on line. You can get 4% tax free which is equivalent of 7% taxable and if rates continue to fall you can sell at a profit. Putting 10-20% of next egg in that type of bond is a smart play as leaving it in money market you are guranteed to lose money. The rate after taxes is less than inflation. High investment grade bonds are also a good deal. I bought a 7% BOA bond on Friday, come on now, that is a lot of yield for that low a risk. Go to Fidelity or a site like that and buy FDIC CDs that sell on open market you can lock in one year rate and can sell without penalty and may make money on sale if rates rise.

    It is riskier to leave a 200K downpayment in a money market and risk rates falling to 1 or 2 percent while you wait it out.

  196. Just me says:
    January 19, 2008 at 11:11 am

    can sone pull history of this home for me!!!
    MLS ID:
    20741013

    thank you

  197. 3b says:
    January 19, 2008 at 11:16 am

    #141 bi:but homebuilders are the winner this week!
    And how would you define losing grasshopper?

  198. chicagofinance says:
    January 19, 2008 at 11:20 am

    WSJ Editorial
    Feel-Good Economics
    By BRUCE BARTLETT
    January 19, 2008; Page A12

    With remarkable speed, Congress, the White House, Republicans, Democrats and even the Federal Reserve have come to a consensus on the need for economic stimulus to moderate and perhaps forestall a recession. It seems certain that the final stimulus package will contain a tax rebate.

    The underlying theory for the rebate idea traces back to the British economist John Maynard Keynes. He believed that spending was the driving force in the economy. It didn’t matter whether the spending was done by businesses on capital equipment, by governments on public works, or by consumers — spending is spending in the Keynesian model, and all of it is stimulative.

    In Keynes’ defense, his theory was developed during a severe, world-wide deflation. Spending of all kinds was paralyzed by a lack of liquidity, and the Federal Reserve had difficulty injecting money into the economy because so many banks had closed. Under these circumstances, deficit spending by governments made sense as a means of getting money into circulation and overcoming deflation. The problem is that, once World War II seemed to validate Keynes’s theory, the idea of stimulating the economy by increasing government spending became the all-purpose cure for every economic slowdown, regardless of its underlying cause.

    In the 1960s and 1970s, this usually took the form of public works spending. But in 1974, the White House was keen on the idea of cutting taxes to stimulate private spending. Since it was feared that a permanent tax cut might be inflationary, President Gerald Ford and the Democratic Congress agreed on a one-shot tax rebate. It was thought that cash-strapped consumers would take their government checks and immediately run out and spend them on food, clothing and other necessities. This would give the economy a Keynesian boost.

    One dissenter was economist Milton Friedman. His research had led him to conclude that consumer spending was less a function of liquidity than something he called “permanent income.” Friedman observed that when workers lost their jobs, they didn’t immediately cut back on spending. They borrowed or drew down savings to maintain spending, in the expectation of finding a new job shortly. Conversely, consumers didn’t immediately spend windfalls. They kept spending on an even keel until they achieved a promotion at work, or other increase in their long-term income expectations.

    Thus Friedman predicted that the $100 to $200 checks disbursed by the Treasury Department in the spring of 1975 would have a minimal impact on spending, because they did not alter peoples’ permanent income. Most likely, people would save the money or pay down debt, which is the same thing. Very little of the rebate would cause consumers to buy things they wouldn’t otherwise have bought in the near term.

    Subsequent studies by MIT economists Franco Modigliani and Charles Steindel, and Alan Blinder of Princeton, showed that Friedman’s prediction was correct. The 1975 rebate had very little impact on spending and much less than a permanent tax cut — which would change peoples’ concept of their permanent income — of similar magnitude.

    In 2001 — despite the thoroughness and general acceptance of these studies — Congress and the White House once again chose a one-shot tax rebate to deal with an economic slowdown in 2001.

    To his credit, Treasury Secretary Paul O’Neill cautioned against the rebate. “I was here when we tried that in 1975, and it just didn’t work,” he said. “If we want to change consumption patterns, we need to make permanent changes in peoples’ tax burdens.” But President George W. Bush overruled his Treasury secretary and approved the rebate idea. Checks of $300 to $600 per taxpayer were sent out in the late summer. Contemporaneous polls by Gallup, Bloomberg and the University of Michigan all found that the vast bulk of consumers expected to save the money or use it to pay bills. Subsequent studies confirmed these forecasts.

    In short, there is virtually no empirical evidence that tax rebates are an effective response to economic slowdowns. The increased personal saving doesn’t help the economy because the federal budget deficit, which can be thought of as negative saving, offsets all of it in the aggregate. The main benefit of a tax rebate would seem to be political — giving politicians a way of appearing to be doing something about the nation’s economic problems that is superficially plausible.

    A new rebate probably won’t do much harm. But anyone who thinks it will prevent a recession — if one is actually in the pipeline, which is not at all certain — is dreaming. It’s an insult to Keynes even to call a tax rebate Keynesian economics. It should be called “feel good economics” because its only real effect is to make politicians feel good about themselves and buy re-election with the public purse.

    Mr. Bartlett was deputy assistant secretary of the Treasury for economic policy during the administration of President George H.W. Bush.

  199. njpatient says:
    January 19, 2008 at 11:27 am

    162 shore

    I’m of like mind (though Dobbs is dumber than most of the major party candidates).

    Why would anyone in their right mind run for president?

  200. Orion says:
    January 19, 2008 at 11:27 am

    Bush’s stimulus package is not very stimulating.
    But it might make some people feel good for 2 minutes.

  201. njpatient says:
    January 19, 2008 at 11:30 am

    162 – they should have a forward-looking statements disclaimer as well.

  202. njpatient says:
    January 19, 2008 at 11:30 am

    165, that is – they should have a forward-looking statements disclaimer as well.

  203. gary says:
    January 19, 2008 at 11:32 am

    chifi [187],

    Perhaps he’s simply trying to be an unbiased analyst but perhaps that’s giving him too much slack. If that’s not the case, then I have no idea where his animosity comes from.

  204. njpatient says:
    January 19, 2008 at 11:32 am

    I read in the Times today where Otteau says now is an great time to buy.

    As always.

  205. HEHEHE says:
    January 19, 2008 at 11:33 am

    Re 182

    “There seems to be no shortage of such capital available, and this is a healthy sign.”

    I don’t think this is necessarily true. That well is only so deep and once some of these Sovereign funds wake up they aren’t going to be throwing good money after bad. Look at China’s hesitancy to help Citi or Merrill after their Blackstone investments. Though I think they will actually make out okay on that one in the long run as Blackstone will be eating carrion once this thing bottoms.

    Re 198: Has there ever been a study showing how much sending out those rebate checks cost the government the last time? I would think between printing and mailing that wasn’t a drop in the frigging bucket. Why not just increase a tax deduction and save the paperwork?

  206. grim says:
    January 19, 2008 at 11:35 am

    Otteau says now is an great time to buy.

    He isn’t wrong, he’s just too early.

  207. Cindy says:
    January 19, 2008 at 11:35 am

    (198) Chicago – Thank you for the history/econ lesson. Am I correct that Keynesian is the manipulation approach and Adam Smith the “leave it alone and let it take care of itself” guy?

    Is it fair to say – or is it a stretch
    deflation – Keynes
    inflation – Smith???

  208. 3b says:
    January 19, 2008 at 11:37 am

    #204 njpatient: Its alwasy a great time to buy. Just wait for the even better time to buy.

    Otteau is a slave to his masters, he has to perform accordingly.

  209. Pat says:
    January 19, 2008 at 11:38 am

    Any stay-at-home Moms, retirees, part-timers, or Evelyn Woods graduates out there?

    Somebody’s going to have to start summarizing innovative ideas, dot connections made, pleas for help, and interesting news into five or six lines (of course including a list of the comment numbers that are still making you laugh).

    The first comment line could read, “Cliff Notes,” so that we can easily click Edit/Find on Page/Cliff Notes.

  210. Sean says:
    January 19, 2008 at 11:43 am

    re: 180 Frank

    Refresher on risk.

    Quote: “The amount of derivatives in play is in the hundreds of trillions of dollars all bet on Monte Carlo Simulation.”

    Make sure you read the widely circulated Pershing Square Capital Management’s paper.

    Who is holding the Bag?

    There is a link the Minyanville article.in

    http://www.minyanville.com/articles/Monte+Carlo-CDO-M3/index/a/13053

    Now the market for Credit default swaps is something that is a bit of a closed loop with everyone insuring everyone else. The risk of counter-party default or the probabilities of default by more than one firm is an important task in credit analysis, derivatives pricing, and risk management.

    However, default correlations cannot be measured directly. Default modeling is technically difficult, and most existing credit models cannot be applied to analyze multiple defaults.

    It is calculated based upon joint distribution and density of default times, default correlations, and CDS spreads.

    Basically a doomsday scenario.

    IF you watched Cramer speak last night he said we will all end up in the 1800s. A not so nice way of saying the house of cards could collapse, if the Government does not come in soon and do a bailout or buyout.

  211. chicagofinance says:
    January 19, 2008 at 11:44 am

    As I said yesterday…..stay clear…

    WSJ
    Doubts Over Deal Hit Countrywide Shares
    By JAMES R. HAGERTY and VALERIE BAUERLEIN
    January 19, 2008; Page A3

    Countrywide Financial Corp. shares dropped nearly 10% Friday amid growing investor fears that Bank of America Corp. could walk away from its agreement to acquire the struggling home-mortgage lender.

    Countrywide shares were at $4.96 in 4 p.m. composite trading on the New York Stock Exchange Friday, a 12-year low, down from $5.48 Thursday and $6.33 on Jan. 11, the day plans were announced for a merger in which shareholders would get 0.1822 Bank of America share for each share in the mortgage company. Based on Bank of America’s closing of $35.97, the offer values Countrywide at about $3.8 billion, or $6.55 a share.

    Bank of America declined to comment. Countrywide representatives didn’t respond to requests for comment.

    Stocks in takeover deals regularly trade below the offer price because of the risks that plans could fall through. The gap, known as the arbitrage spread, is wider than usual in this case, though.

    “The Street thinks the deal will have to be re-priced” lower, said Paul J. Miller Jr., an analyst at Friedman, Billings, Ramsey & Co. He has argued since the deal was announced that there is a high risk the price will be renegotiated if the mortgage market continues to worsen and Countrywide losses exceed Bank of America’s expectations. The purchase is due to be completed in the third quarter.

    Some Wall Street analysts attributed the wide gap to details of the merger agreement that Countrywide filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission late Thursday. The agreement gives Bank of America wide leeway to walk away. One condition is that Countrywide must get an unqualified opinion on its 2007 annual report from an outside auditor. Bank of America wouldn’t be held to a “specific performance” clause, which generally refers to the ability of the seller to force the buyer to complete a buyout. Countrywide also agreed to a broadly worded clause on “material adverse changes” that could torpedo the deal.

    Frederick Cannon, an analyst at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods in San Francisco, said arbitrage traders “had a tough year in 2007 and are reluctant to put on the trade where there is perceived risk.”

    Despite those risks, he said, he expects the transaction to be completed on the current terms.

    Some planned buyouts of mortgage lenders fell apart last year. H&R Block Inc. last April announced plans to sell its Option One Mortgage unit to Cerberus Capital Management LP, but the business continued to deteriorate, and the two companies called off the deal in December.

  212. njpatient says:
    January 19, 2008 at 11:54 am

    180 Frank

    Do you understand that Citigroup and friends in essence purchased the AAA rating og Ambac and friends for the purpose of keeping crap investments off their own books?
    The demise of Ambac and friends means Citigroup and friends have to come clean in their financials. The issue has little to do with the intrinsic value of the bonds – we know they’re junk – the question is whose books they’re on.

  213. soylatte says:
    January 19, 2008 at 12:24 pm

    From the daily record
    http://dailyrecord.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080119/UPDATES01/80118015

    13 indicted, 7 others guilty in home equity loan scheme

    NEWARK, N.J. (AP) — A federal judge unsealed a 35-count indictment Friday that charged 13 people in a scheme to fraudulently obtain more than $20 million in home equity and business lines of credit.
    Seven more people pleaded guilty Friday in the scheme, whose victims include at least 16 different lenders in northern New Jersey, said U.S. Attorney Christopher J. Christie.
    The indictment alleges that four of the defendants were loan brokers with Palisades Park-based American Macro Growth and the others were clients of the company who allegedly used its services to fraudulently obtain lines of credit.
    The company allegedly helped those clients use the same properties as collateral for multiple lines of credit, even though the loan amounts far exceeded the value of the properties.
    It’s not clear how much money of the $20 million was drawn down, but a majority of the credit lines were drawn in most cases, said Bradley A. Harsch, an assistant U.S. Attorney.
    In one example, a client used less than $300,000 of equity in a Palisades Park property to get about $2.1 million in credit from nine different banks, according to the indictment.
    The company also allegedly falsified U.S. income tax returns and other information to increase the amounts that clients could borrow.
    Six of the seven people who pleaded guilty Friday were borrowers who used the company’s services to procure loans between $750,000 and $1.9 million.
    No telephone listing could be found for American Macro Growth. According to published reports, the company shut down last year.

  214. John says:
    January 19, 2008 at 12:37 pm

    Bond insurance is irrelevant if the thing insured does not collaspe. If I drive to the supermarket today but I accidentally let my insurance laspe will I have a higher chance of having an accident? The problem is not the lack of insurance which was only good for a couple of bps in the first place, the problem is the default risk is rising. The other odd thing is that not all munis are insured, top notch NYS GO rated munis are not always insured yet the prices of these bonds fell as much as the prices of the insured bonds. These are the quirks in the market that reveal bond bargains.

  215. Confused In NJ says:
    January 19, 2008 at 12:38 pm

    IF you watched Cramer speak last night he said we will all end up in the 1800s. A not so nice way of saying the house of cards could collapse, if the Government does not come in soon and do a bailout or buyout.

    1800’s works for me. We can save a bunch, hanging the snake oil salesmen, versus putting them in Prison.

  216. BC Bob says:
    January 19, 2008 at 12:39 pm

    patient [212],

    Exactly. The issue is not the price of the bonds. It’s which bookie [I mean contra party] you are married to.

    For example, take an electrical box. It contains a number of circuit breakers, nice and clean. If there is a problem, flick the breaker. Unfortunately, this circuit breaker is hard wired, there are thousands of wires, intertwined, crossed, held together by paper clips and rubber bands. As long as the lights are working properly, confidence reigns. When the lights start flickering, trepidation begins to set in. When the lights go out the willies surface. Good luck in your attempt to untangle the mess, trace all these wires and detecting your problem.

  217. BC Bob says:
    January 19, 2008 at 12:53 pm

    “Bond insurance is irrelevant if the thing insured does not collaspe.”

    John,

    Also, life insurance is worthless if you don’t die.

    What occurs if you are in a car wreck and subsequently you are made aware that you are not in good hands?

  218. Confused In NJ says:
    January 19, 2008 at 2:10 pm

    Jan. 18 (Bloomberg) — The U.S. Supreme Court gave us more evidence earlier this week of what people in the stock market already knew: This is no time to be an investor.

    People who buy shares in companies that defraud them can’t sue those who may have helped in an illegal deed, the court said. Money lost because Smith Co. and Jones Co. lent a hand while Acme Co. cooked the books? The court says tough luck unless Smith and Jones somehow led you to buy Acme’s stock.

    This judicial gift came via the Jan. 15 decision in Stoneridge Investment Partners LLC versus Scientific-Atlanta Inc. and Motorola Inc. Stoneridge, a Malvern, Pennsylvania, money manager, alleged that the two cable-television box-makers helped pull off an accounting fraud that let Charter Communications Inc. show more revenue than it really had. The court ruled on whether Stoneridge could sue so-called abettors, not on whether the allegations were true.

    To help get the deed done, Stoneridge alleged, Scientific- Atlanta (now owned by Cisco Systems Inc.) and Motorola bought advertising at inflated prices from Charter, a cable operator in St. Louis. As Stoneridge described it, the companies got their money right back in transactions that had no business purpose other than fooling the public.

    The Securities and Exchange Commission said in a cease and desist order against Charter in 2005 that the cable company overpaid two set-top box makers $17 million and received $17 million back from them in phony advertising revenue. The SEC, which didn’t cite wrongdoing by Motorola and Scientific-Atlanta, said the two companies paid between four and five times what other advertisers were paying Charter during 2000.

    Charter settled, neither admitting nor denying the SEC’s finings.

    Fighting Back

    U.S. investors who get fleeced already had limited means of fighting back. When a stockbroker swindles someone, the customer is barred from taking the broker to court. Wall Street firms insist that investors sign agreements to use private, industry- run arbitration.

    If you don’t want to sign, you can put your money in the mattress, which isn’t a bad idea of late. And if you don’t like the result of your arbitration, don’t waste your money challenging a decision in court. When you signed that mandatory arbitration agreement, you agreed that you’d take whatever the arbitrators gave.

    Now the opportunity to sue wayward public companies, as opposed to stockbrokers, has also been curtailed. In its 5-3 decision, the court said that even if Motorola and Scientific- Atlanta were part of a fraud, investors in Charter had no case against them.

    The court’s reasoning was that neither Scientific-Atlanta nor Motorola had a direct role in getting investors to buy Charter. And whatever happened among the companies, the court pointed out that Motorola and Scientific-Atlanta did whatever they did in the business marketplace, not the investment world.

    Get a Dictionary

    “Unconventional as the arrangement was, it took place in the marketplace for goods and services,” the court wrote, “not in the investment sphere.” Unconventional? We’ve got to get these judges a dictionary.

    At the core of the case was whether investors have the right to sue abettors under the securities law known as Rule 10b-5, which says it’s against the law to use “any manipulative or deceptive device” related to the buying and selling of securities. It also says you can’t make untrue statements and you can’t omit material facts. That goes for any act that’s a fraud or deceit on anyone “in connection with the purchase or sale of securities.”

    While on the face of it the allegations against Motorola and Scientific-Atlanta included all of the above, the court parsed the securities-fraud law in a manner so pleasing to the securities industry that its trade group applauded the decision as an inoculation against litigation that could “derail the economy,” something the brokerage industry has excelled in of late.

    Buy Recommendation

    If there were deceptive acts, they weren’t revealed to the investing public, said the court, as if keeping such things secret would be a good thing. It’s hard to imagine what would have had to happen for the court to rule with Stoneridge. Would Motorola have had to put out a press release recommending shares of Charter before the court would hold it responsible?

    For these and other reasons, Stonebridge couldn’t show that investors relied on the actions of Motorola and Scientific- Atlanta “except in an indirect chain that we find too remote for liability,” the court wrote. Charter’s fraud (its chief financial officer pleaded guilty to wire fraud related to the set-top box transactions and was sentenced in April 2005) was allegedly pulled off with the cooperation of the two companies, Stoneridge says. That would be remote?

    Rock Bottom

    If the investing public had any doubt that its status has sunk to rock bottom, consider this. The court wrote that to allow suits against abettors could raise the cost of doing business. It could get so bad, in fact, that the cost of being a publicly traded company could rise, the court said, which might “shift securities offerings away from domestic capital markets.” Is this the highest court in the U.S. or the Chamber of Commerce?

    Maybe the court hasn’t noticed that the scariest thing happening in the domestic capital markets is that the U.S. is groveling for money overseas. If the Supreme Court is going to be in the business of protecting U.S. markets, it might consider championing the excellence that results when corporations are held responsible for their actions.

  219. Ann says:
    January 19, 2008 at 2:31 pm

    167 mikeymike

    Good luck! You’ll probably need flood insurance there anyway regardless (which you’ll want) and I would read up more on whether they really did fix the flooding and all of that.

  220. Punch My Ticket says:
    January 19, 2008 at 2:33 pm

    214 John

    Bond insurance is irrelevant if the thing insured does not collaspe.

    Not true. Your argument boils down to: With perfect foresight, we would see that future cash flows are unchanged in the absence of insurance, so the asset is unimpaired.

    But we do not have perfect foresight and we discount cash flows accordingly. The absence of insurance mandates a higher discount rate and the value of the asset falls.

    This is standard economic theory and I expect you to agree with it. I also expect you to retort that the bump in the discount rates aren’t very rational in a panic (and I agree we’re getting close to that stage).

    Nevertheless, it is what it is. You can’t pretend that panic doesn’t affect market value when value is set by what everyone else thinks. (The only time that’s not true is if you have infinitely deep pockets.) In particular, you cannot pretend that market value isn’t impaired when many big holders of the assets are subject not just to theory but to rules and regulations in black and white.

    The failure of the monolines should mean little to munis because it’s not obvious that anything much has changed in their underlying economics. Unless the economy really dives, chances are the existing issuers will pay in full and on time. But munis are still down in price because the people who own them are largely not Ma and Pa Bigbucks who can ride out the failure of the insurers, but rather big institutional pools of money that are bound by an investment policy that says they can only AAA.

    Similarly, it’s not clear that the banks holding certain assets on their books actually hold impaired assets. Maybe those assets will all pay in the long run. But the banks don’t have the long run to wait and see. They are subject to capital rules that say more capital is required to hold unrated paper than AAA paper. If the insurers fail, more capital is required, even if the now unrated paper will never miss a coupon. It’s a rule and it’s not a stupid rule, because banks are highly levered.

  221. still_looking says:
    January 19, 2008 at 3:03 pm

    forgive the dolt-ness: “That said, if the insurers go under, you can wav goodbye to any M&A activity.”

    What is M&A?

    And: What are the overall implications of the re-insurers going bust?

    (sorry… my only college economics course was a farm related one…)

    sl

  222. 3b says:
    January 19, 2008 at 3:16 pm

    #217 BC Bob Bond insurance is irrelevant if the thing insured does not collaspe.”

    And in my days in the muni business, there was lots of paper out there that people would not buy unless it had insurance.

    Like most all Puerto Rico paper, unless they were pre-re’s, and the pre-re’s has to be invested 100% treasuries, with of course no prior calls.

    And of course LA. paper had to be insured, most people would not buy a BBB rated on its own state G.O..

    There was also a time where Mass paper could not be sold without insurance,and of course all the thousands of other state and local entities around the country that had to and still have to be insured to be sold.

    Of course a lot of the retail buyers did not understand that the insurance only guranteed the timely pymt of principal and interest, and insured bonds could default.

    But the institutional buyers did, and you cannot have the muni-market withou the institutional buyers.

    Insurance took the story out of a lot of “story bonds”. It’s a whole new game now if AMBAC/MBIA go under.

  223. 3b says:
    January 19, 2008 at 3:19 pm

    #214 John: Over 65% of the entire muni-market is insure, that is a huge number.

    And tons of NY paper is insured.

  224. Shore Guy says:
    January 19, 2008 at 3:50 pm

    221 Merger and acquisition

  226. njpatient says:
    January 19, 2008 at 4:59 pm

    214 john

    To say it yet again, the problem has nothing to do with the value of the bonds. The problem has to do with whose books reflect the value of the bonds.

    What you said is correct, but irrelevant.

  227. njpatient says:
    January 19, 2008 at 5:06 pm

    218 Confused

    Thanks for highlighting yet another sh*t ruling by the current cabal of loons on the Supremes. Five guys with an outcome searching for a rationale.

  228. njpatient says:
    January 19, 2008 at 5:10 pm

    still looking 221

    The short answers:

    M&A is mergers and acquisitions
    The insurers going bust means that outfits like Citigroup will suddenly have to put a vast quantity of junk bonds on its books which weren’t there before.

  229. afe says:
    January 19, 2008 at 5:11 pm

    Hey does anyone have an address for gsmls
    2455945?

    TIA

  230. Confused In NJ says:
    January 19, 2008 at 5:24 pm

    2008 should be an eye opening year, as we finally see were the skeleton’s are buried. At least 2007 finally made me understand how people were financing inflated housing. Although it makes me wonder, we have a society with the highest formal education in the Country’s history. What are they teaching?

  231. Essex says:
    January 19, 2008 at 5:32 pm

    230. Damn teachers. It’s all their fault. take their pensions. Heck I don’t save why should they get one?

  232. ithink-ithink says:
    January 19, 2008 at 5:43 pm

    so whats being insured or bonded that’s going to collapse? a monorail in vegas? xanadu? Pru center parking? The Tunnel?

    i don’t get the implications of all this, can someone explain why 1800s? cos i thought that’s what was going to happen when the internet superhighway collapsed?

  233. Confused In NJ says:
    January 19, 2008 at 5:45 pm

    Essex Says:
    January 19th, 2008 at 5:32 pm
    230. Damn teachers. It’s all their fault. take their pensions. Heck I don’t save why should they get one?

    Actually I was referring to Higher Education. Why are so many people with Bachelors, Masters, and Doctoral Degrees, so able to be hoodwinked by the Snake Oil Salesmen? I repeat, what have they learned, certainly not “Common Sense”.

  234. JIM says:
    January 19, 2008 at 5:54 pm

    Essex Says:
    January 19th, 2008 at 5:32 pm
    230. Damn teachers. It’s all their fault. take their pensions. Heck I don’t save why should they get one?

    My problem is I pay my pension and their pension, and mine is less than 1/3 of the teacher’s pension.

    Jim

  235. Cindy says:
    January 19, 2008 at 5:54 pm

    Okay – I’ll bite – but don’t jump all over me…

    People cheating people and being able to sleep at night is a moral issue. We see it in our schools. Well educated people were probably brought up in homes where the likes of what we are seeing…was unthinkable. Who takes out loans like this and walks away ..in good conscience.

    debauchery and excess..the beginnings of the Fall of the Roman Empire…

  236. Confused In NJ says:
    January 19, 2008 at 5:56 pm

    Maybe Bush needs to redirect his attention to “The American Evil Doer’s”, and route them out in Government & Corporate America, lest they cause more damage then Bin Ladin ever dreamed of. Then again, maybe that’s the real reason for Separation of Church & State, so the “Evil Doers” won’t have any “Evil Doing Constraints”. Harder to “Do evil”, when your being inhibited.

  237. rhymingrealtor says:
    January 19, 2008 at 6:05 pm

    AFE

    2455945?

    422 Sheffield Rd

    Under Contract

  238. Confused In NJ says:
    January 19, 2008 at 6:05 pm

    235 Cindy;
    debauchery and excess..the beginnings of the Fall of the Roman Empire…

    Another key component from Fall of The Roman Empire was the failure of Roman Citizens to serve in their Army, rather hiring Mercenaries. When Nixon eliminated the Draft, he sewed these same seeds. Our Volunteer Army has grown to include quite a few Non Citizen Mercenaries. Classic example was a Nigerian National serving in the 10th Mountain two years ago, who is currently in prison for murdering two sisters in Watertown NY, home of the 10th Mountain.

  239. Essex says:
    January 19, 2008 at 6:08 pm

    Jim….tell us all how you support the academic world?

  240. Confused In NJ says:
    January 19, 2008 at 6:28 pm

    Because so many Amoral people seem to be in Power in Government & Corporate America, maybe we should change the Rules such that every Government & Corporate Official must have concurrence from their designated Chaplain on all their edicts. Naturally the Chaplain would be associated with the Officials Stated Faith. Amoral people, being a liability, need not apply. Hard to figure out how to handle Atheist’s though? Even Wiccan’s probably have a Wica?

  241. Cindy says:
    January 19, 2008 at 6:44 pm

    I can give you one example in an education setting..

    When we were in school, if our parents received a call from the classroom teacher, we were in deep trouble.
    Now, when you call because Johnny did so and so, you hear excuses and defense of Johnny’s behavior. Then, the parent comes to school the next day and demands to see the principal to complain that the teacher is being hard on Johnny for no reason. So, they want Johnny to be moved out of the “mean” teacher’s class. This has happened to mean more times than I can count. If you are lucky, you have a principal that involves you in this process – sometimes you don’t.

    I’m pretty sure I’m the first person to have said “no” to many of those students – and actually meant it. Without boundaries and rules….where you see where it can lead..And each year it gets worse.

    Our society has many problems. I am simply trying to be part of the solution the best way I know how..one child at a time…

    Enough said on my part..

  242. JIM says:
    January 19, 2008 at 6:47 pm

    Essex my friend,

    I do not feel that teachers should make so much more money than the common taxpayer, as was proven in a study done by Rutgers two years ago. Teachers make approximately 50% more than they would if they worked in the private sector.

    Teachers should be paid a fair , competitive salary, NO tenure,{ this is insane}, contribute to their healthcare{ talk about strong unions}, and havepensions that are in line with the rest of the free world.

    It is ironic that many states that pay their teachers much less than our teachers, have students which test much better than NJ students

    My prediction is that the strong unions{ NJEA, and PBA , will eventually bankrupt NJ} it is inevitable}

    If you feel that teachers deserve this type of money,for this kind of job, you must feel nurses should get 3 times what they get…afterall they save lives.

    Essex you may want to research what happened to GM because of union control,and GM kept their union in line with economy, much better than our politicians have done with the unions that they deal with.

    This year teachers will get , on average a 4.1% increase, plus when healthcare costs go up, probably 10%, the taxpayer will eat that to. Please do not forget the battle cry, you know ” Its all for the Kids”.

    JIM

  243. Confused In NJ says:
    January 19, 2008 at 6:48 pm

    Imagine Chainsaw Al Dunlop or Ivan Boesky justifying their Business Strategies to a Chaplain. Don’t think Paulson could get his approved either.

  244. Confused In NJ says:
    January 19, 2008 at 6:52 pm

    242 Jim

    I think I got $100/mo in Vietnam, but I did have a gun. Glad I was lucky, Uncle Sam had the wrong blood type on my dog tags.

  245. Confused In NJ says:
    January 19, 2008 at 6:57 pm

    Actually a good parallel for the PBA is the US Army. Let’s CAP PBA Benefits on PAR with GI benefits. They’ll love TRICARE.

  246. bi says:
    January 19, 2008 at 7:11 pm

    Apparently, Romney got the nod from Bush Empire. if he wins florida, he will definitely be GOP nominee.
    For GOP, Rudy-Romney ticket is the only hope to defeat Clintons

    ROMNEY IN FLORIDA

    Florida’s top two Republicans, Gov. Charles Crist and Sen. Mel Martinez, have not endorsed anybody in the state’s key Republican presidential primary Jan. 29 but are clearly negative about Mitt Romney.

    Martinez, who co-sponsored President Bush’s ill-fated immigration reform bill, resents Romney’s hard line on illegal immigration. Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush’s support for Romney does not help him with Crist, Bush’s unfriendly successor.

    The latest Rasmussen poll shows a virtual four-way tie in Florida between Romney, Sen. John McCain, Rudy Giuliani and Mike Huckabee, with Fred Thompson not far behind. Florida could give the winner a leg up in the Super Tuesday primaries on Feb. 5 a week later.

    http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=24530

  247. Hard Place says:
    January 19, 2008 at 7:15 pm

    MLS 2477565 – I’ve seen this house listed for the longest time in Chatham. It’s actually fairly nice and the price drop makes the price reasonable for any takers…

    Though I am pumping this place, I’m still waiting. I see better deals to be had, the cracks are already showing in the housing market. This house is just one of them.

  248. Confused In NJ says:
    January 19, 2008 at 7:17 pm

    January 19, 2008 — ALBANY – Nearly every one of the 225 violent felons authorized for release during Gov. Spitzer’s first 11 months in office had been convicted of murder, records made public by the state Parole Board yesterday showed.

  249. Pat says:
    January 19, 2008 at 7:22 pm

    Look at this article from 2001. It looks like it’s written for the current market.
    http://www.post-gazette.com/homes/20011201sale1201p4.asp

  250. Essex says:
    January 19, 2008 at 7:22 pm

    242…………I hope you are joking. Teachers (with degrees of course, some with masters) make as much as a good administrative assistant in a fortune 100 company. You can easily 2x the salary of teaching by going to the private sector. Of course, I am not comparing a teacher’s salary to a Walmart greeter.

    Yours is a fantasy….read some reality here Jim: Not the study but the comments from former teachers below:

    http://well.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/01/02/teacher-burnout-blame-the-parents/index.html?hp

  251. 3b says:
    January 19, 2008 at 7:27 pm

    #247 hardplace the cracks are already showing in the housing market.

    The cracks have been there for quite a while now, the crumbling is next.

  252. bi says:
    January 19, 2008 at 7:31 pm

    250#, essex, i don’t know why teachers become a problem for many posters here. i believe teachers deserve higher respect than doctors. in many asian countries, teachers do not make much but are highly respected in society. when i visited japan, i was told the schools are usually the most beautiful buildings in town.

  253. Confused In NJ says:
    January 19, 2008 at 7:32 pm

    Hard Place Says:
    January 19th, 2008 at 7:15 pm
    MLS 2477565 – I’ve seen this house listed for the longest time in Chatham. It’s actually fairly nice and the price drop makes the price reasonable for any takers…

    Though I am pumping this place, I’m still waiting. I see better deals to be had, the cracks are already showing in the housing market. This house is just one of them.

    Much better buy then Chaham Townhouse MLS 2455987 ($799K) where sellers are probably on crack.

  254. Essex says:
    January 19, 2008 at 7:38 pm

    Thanks Bi…..I’m really pro education…and the whole sarcastic “it’s for the children” cry that some people use (like Jim) is really not acceptable. Look at Florida. If you want schools like that (k-12) then have a land of retirees…where the schools are an afterthought and teachers make $30k a year. I can tell you from personal experience that teachers do not enter that field “for the money”…that is absurd.

  255. Essex says:
    January 19, 2008 at 7:39 pm

    Read the blog I posted….it is very informative and tells ‘why’ teachers who enter the field *50%* of whom leave before 5 years.

    http://well.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/01/02/teacher-burnout-blame-the-parents/index.html?hp

  256. Confused In NJ says:
    January 19, 2008 at 7:42 pm

    250 Essex;

    Essex, Many of the comments were Teacher Negative?

    The demanding parents put demands on the teachers, instead of their children, the students. If “Johnny” does poorly because he wants to spend too much time playing or “hanging out”, it’s the teachers fault. That is one problem.

    The second problem is teachers in increasing numbers, whose main concern is increased pay. A starting teacher in our local district gets %36000 for nine months. That’s $4000 per month. No engineering position pays that much for starters. You have to prove yourself. But, teachers want MORE.

    So, blame parents and teachers alike. The kids are taking the easy way out.

    — Posted by RayKornele

  257. Essex says:
    January 19, 2008 at 7:46 pm

    Many of the comments ‘were’ negative….and many were fascinating….I’m not trying to paint a pretty picture here….I am trying to illuminate reality. Reality is that intelligent people have choices….and often opt out of teaching, and it usually only takes them 5 years to decide against that. Engineering? Try sales and marketing.

  258. afe says:
    January 19, 2008 at 7:57 pm

    Thanks KL!

  259. Confused In NJ says:
    January 19, 2008 at 8:02 pm

    257. Essex

    I agree. All fields today have their Trials and Tribulations. The old days of working for one company for life, are gone, in the Private Sector anyway. Private Sector People today are expected to make at least five career changes in their lives. Many navigate minefields of downsizing every two years, with associated stress. Different then when you worked for GM, IBM, AT&T, Westinghouse, RCA, etc., for life and Loyalty had it’s Rewards. Wall Street, with all it’s bonuses, can put you out of work in the blink of an eye. I can remember friends from the Street, waiting on tables to buy food, years ago, the 70’s. An old Economics Professor I had (Slavin), authored a Book called “Jelly Bean Economics” in the Regan ERA. His favorite class expression was, “Those who can Do!, those who can’t Teach!”. Never knew if he really believed that, but he always quoted it.

  260. Ann says:
    January 19, 2008 at 8:05 pm

    I don’t understand all the griping about teachers. If teachers are getting such a great deal, why isn’t everyone swarming into the profession? And heck, if you have kids, better start encouraging them now to be teachers, especially your sons, because it’s such a great job!

    If it’s such a great job, why didn’t you become one? Come on, aren’t we the land of personal responsibility? You have no one to blame but yourself for not jumping on that gravy train!

    I do think schools could use some reforms, mainly elimination of tenure and more school choice, but I think that would even benefit the good teachers by getting rid of the crummy ones.

    Anyone who thinks a (good) teacher makes too much money should go try to be one. People can hardly stand to hang out with their own kids all day, never mind, other people’s.

    Cindy, great comment about the parents.

  261. Sybarite says:
    January 19, 2008 at 8:06 pm

    Reading the English and grammar used in posts on this blog makes me wish there were better English teachers out there.

  262. Confused In NJ says:
    January 19, 2008 at 8:13 pm

    Ethics vs. Morality
    © 1993 Williscroft

    Have you had something stolen from you lately? Do you know somebody who has? Do you believe the world is less safe than it used to be? Have you asked yourself why societal values seem to be changing for the worse?

    Pick up any newspaper; listen to any newscast. Visit a courtroom; watch C-Span. Even if you do not have a standard against which you can measure what you see and hear, you will be left with the impression that there is something fundamentally wrong with today’s society.

    You are not alone. Across the civilized world, men and women publicly debate the underlying reasons for this dramatic turn of events. More often than any other, the issue of morality is raised, with the usual enjoinder being that western civilization has turned away from God and the precepts that underlie Judeo-Christian thought.

    Occasionally, someone will point out that similar problems are developing in societies that do not subscribe to traditional Western religious philosophy. Depending on the speaker’s own perspective, the answer usually turns around “lack of Christian values” within these other societies (which begs the question), or sage observations on how in these societies—as in ours—morals are being ignored as these societies turn away from their religious roots.

    Common to all these “insights” is the unchallenged assumption that religious principle underlies morality, and as a society turns from traditional religious roots, it loses touch with its moral roots as well.

    Ironically, within our own society, those who reject traditional religious values (for whatever reason—scientific, philosophical, etc.) tend to embrace “esoteric” alternatives to fill the void and supply a moral tone or framework for their lives. Witness the resurgence of astrology, crystalology, pyramidology, and the many other pseudo-scientific world-views on one hand, and the interest in Buddhism, Zoroastrianism, Bahá’í, and other “foreign” religious philosophies on the other. Even within the framework of traditional Judeo-Christian thought, denominations have arisen that attempt to integrate morality and religious thought on some “higher” level.

    This idea is pervasive: morality results from and is guided by religion. But is this really true? Back in 1947, Phillip Wylie wrote An Essay on Morals, a slender volume wherein he attempted to address this issue. More than anything else, this work is a discussion of Carl Jung’s concept of archetypal figures and the collective race memory that forms a significant part of Jung’s writings. After the first edition reached reviewers, Wylie found himself panned by critics. The common theme of their rebukes was that Wylie had not a clue about Jung’s perspective. Religious leaders were outraged, and the intellectual community followed the critics in their knowing put-down of Wylie. (In his inimitable way, Wylie had managed to step on everybody’s toes once more.)

    While all this was going on, Carl Jung wrote to Wylie, expressing his appreciation for “the best exegesis of my writing I have ever seen.” As might be expected, Wylie took full advantage of Jung’s letter in the introduction to the second edition of An Essay on Morals.

    According to Wylie (and fully endorsed by Jung), there is nothing at all mystical about the apparent human collective subconscious mind or memory. We are the current end product of one of Nature’s evolutionary paths. As we trace our evolutionary branch, we discover more and more common elements with members of other species.

    One very large difference stands out, however. Human cognitive ability far exceeds that of any other species on this planet. Even when we consider such interesting phenomena as the gorilla that learned several dozen words in sign language, there still is a vast gap between our ability to think, imagine, ponder, and so forth, and that of any other species. And yet we share a large common pool of genetic material with other species, including much that has been determined to control instinct in these other species.

    Why, then, do humans not exhibit the same kinds of instinctual patterns that control all other animals? We do, Wylie says, but because we have this incredible ability to think, we ask “why?” The complexity of our thinking patterns, however, causes this “why?” to be buried in our subconscious minds, where it inevitably seeks and ultimately finds answers. These answers take the form of mental constructs that appear universally across all human societies, throughout all human history. Jung calls them archetypes, and he successfully mapped these universal images to specific instinctual patterns he observed in animals.

    Jung’s mapping is not universally accepted, but the explanatory power of his underlying insight is powerful. Once we understand that all religions, all “moral philosophies,” all ideologies have the common basis of human instinct gene patterns, we can more clearly understand why, when religious faith declines, another “faith” must take its place. Inevitably, upon close examination the similarities between this new “faith” and the old will completely overshadow their superficial differences.

    We will accept as a premise, therefore, that we are bound by patterns of instinct. These patterns manifest themselves as archetypal figures haunting our subconscious minds with sufficient sameness that the ghosts and gods and goblins we create—no matter where or when—are more alike than not. Is it possible, under these circumstances, to formulate a moral philosophy that remains independent of these driving archetypes?

    Enter ethics. There always has been confusion surrounding the two concepts, morality and ethics. Before we look closer, however, let us set aside any semantic problems. I once witnessed a conversation between several women regarding the color of a piece of cloth. The color was subtle—not your basic red, black, blue, green, or yellow. Picking out a name for this color could have been an interesting exercise in advertising psychology. In this case, however, each of the women could clearly see the color; whatever name somebody somewhere might have assigned to it had absolutely no bearing on what it actually was. Nevertheless, these ladies spent fifteen minutes or so arguing among themselves about the color’s name.

    A similar situation frequently happens when we deal with the concepts of morality and ethics. We must not allow ourselves to get wrapped up in giving one concept two names and then arguing about those names. We are dealing with two concepts and two names, so we should have little difficulty in distinguishing between them, if we define our terms beforehand. With this in mind, I will, therefore, define morality as religion-derived, and ethics as derived from first principles. The difference, then, is not a function of what, but rather of how derived. Ethical behavior (derived from first principles) can be moral within this context if it also can be derived from religious principle. Ethical behavior can be immoral within this context, if religion condemns it; and, of course, it can also be amoral if religion does not address it. Likewise, moral behavior can be ethical or unethical; and it can also be non-ethical, in the sense that it falls outside the purview of ethics.

    The problem in society today is that organized religion, which has dictated moral behavior, is losing favor with the general population. Since neither our families nor our schools are teaching anything resembling ethics, the only available replacements are the “esoteric” alternatives that are becoming so pervasive, or else the more visceral “street rules” that govern urban gangs. The result is predictable.

    Is there a genuine basis for ethics outside of the moral religious strictures that seem to bound our society? Can we really start with first principle and derive an ethical framework that will work today, that can form the basis for reasonable social interaction, that can be taught in our schools and form a basic part of family life?

    For simplicity, isolate one human on an island, and let him create what he needs for survival. (For this analogy to work, ignore the requirements for physical survival, other than to acknowledge their background necessity and availability.) By himself, this solitary human requires no theoretical constructs—no ethics. He does whatever he wishes, however he wishes, whenever he wishes.

    Now double the population of the island

    Enter ethics.

    The simple fact of adding another human immediately creates the need for interaction, no matter how rare; and interaction mandates rules of behavior. No matter how informal or unstructured, in the final analysis, the presence of more than one individual mandates some kind of interactive relationship, a set of rules, ethics.

    Realistically, what are these rules? One can successfully argue that there are a large number of ways two or more individuals can work out their interrelationships. While this is true, there remain several fundamental elements that are common to all of them.

    For example, if a society allows wanton killing of humans in the thoughtless manner in which a person steps on a bug, it is easy to show that this society will internally destruct.

    As society grows, it is easy to see that the number and complexity of these rules also grows so that one eventually reaches a more general state where the population has stabilized to where the rules—the ethics framework—has reached stasis. There are sufficient rules to govern nearly any contingency, including “contingent” rules that address the odd exception. If one then formalizes these rules, so that they can be stated logically along with their obvious derivative paths, then one has an ethics system that can be taught in class to young members of the society, and imposed on the impressionable minds of children in the home.

    The end result is a society with a common set of ethical underpinnings, rules of behavior that do not depend on religious training or perspective, a framework that will not dissipate in the face of changing belief systems. This goal is realistically achievable if educators throughout the society are specifically charged with its implementation. The difficulty lies, not in creating the concept, structuring the class material, or disseminating the knowledge, but simply in convincing the educators—the teachers—that it must happen. Within limits legislation can help, but in the final analysis, a thoroughly convinced teacher in every classroom will make it happen.

    The solution is at hand. It only requires implementation. And a problem with a solution doesn’t bother me.

  263. Confused In NJ says:
    January 19, 2008 at 8:20 pm

    260 Ann

    People can hardly stand to hang out with their own kids all day, never mind, other people’s

    And therein the primary problem may lie.

  264. Cindy says:
    January 19, 2008 at 8:23 pm

    255 (Essex) 252 (Bi) 256 (confused)

    I was/am concerned with our society as a whole. Schools are a microcasm reflecting our society so you can view where we are headed “over time.”

    After 25 years in the classroom I have seem many changes. The most troubling of which is the lack of acceptance of responsibility for one’s actions. Rules are for someone else.

    Do you see what I mean? We have people walking away from houses and leaving others to hold the bag…they are teaching their children to do the same someday…

    Parents are the first and most important teacher a child will ever have…when they come to schools and yell at teachers and disrespect us..what do they think the kids are going to do…

  265. RaM says:
    January 19, 2008 at 8:25 pm

    N.J.’s first comptroller will monitor corruption-Star Ledger
    http://www.nj.com/news/ledger/index.ssf?/base/news-0/1200720942110520.xml&coll=1

  266. shuky says:
    January 19, 2008 at 8:26 pm

    we are looking to buy a house in west orange

    how much lower will be the prices in 6 month?

    my wife is pushing and pushing to buy

    Thank G-d, After the President Bush’s speach, she slowed down a little bit

    we cannot wait years

  267. shuky says:
    January 19, 2008 at 8:27 pm

    how much lower will be the prices in 6 month?

    my wife is pushing and pushing to buy

    Thank G-d, After the President Bush’s speach, she slowed down a little bit

  268. Sybarite says:
    January 19, 2008 at 8:29 pm

    #266

    Read through the archives. There’s no consensus about when the bottom will hit, but everyone seems to agree that prices will continue to decline for the next year or two, if not longer.

    Ask your wife why you need to buy so urgently, and if she’s ok with losing thousands of $$ within months, albeit on paper.

    That said, if you’re looking to hold on to a place for many years and not move, you may not experience a loss. Just realize that most asking prices are still unrealistic, and good deals will be had by those who are patient.

  269. PGC says:
    January 19, 2008 at 8:29 pm

    #221 still_looking

    M&A is Mergers and Acquisitions. One of the esiest way a company can grow revenue is to buy another company. Think of GM. It bought part of the parent of Subaru, they increased their revenue from sales from both brands and cut costs by creating a new model from a common platform. So the Saab 9-2 is basically a rebadged Impreza with better suspension and styling. Its a win-win. Subaru use up excess capaity an SAAB get a new model with less development costs.

    For GM to purchase its piece of Subaru is has a few choices. It can pay for it in cash or with its own stock or it can go to the credit markets ab borrow the money.

    I’ve tried to come up with a single simple example of the insurance problem and the best I can think of is this.

    Company A is worth 100M and has 10M in outstanding debt (10%). Company B is worth 50M and has 15M (30%) of debt. For Company A to buy company B it will have get get its bond holders to sign off on the deal as they are proposing to create a 150M company with 25M debt. The bond holders have gone from 10% exposure to 16% exposure. To get around this company A can go to the bond insurers to pass on the risk of default on the new debt to reduce the exposure.

  270. njpatient says:
    January 19, 2008 at 8:36 pm

    238
    And to tease that out a bit further, mercenaries become necessary when states fight the sort of wars that tend not to inspire their citizens to volunteer.

  271. JIM says:
    January 19, 2008 at 8:40 pm

    Essex more info,

    New Jersey State Employees Benefits to Triple
    Currently, the state of New Jersey spends $2.2 billion for teacher and public employee benefits. These expenses are expected to climb to an outrageous $6.7 billion by 2009 according to the director of the Division of Benefits and Pensions. It all started with a 9% increase in benefits passed in 2000 by a bill sponsored by Senator Nicholas Asselta of Cumberland. We have been fed the propaganda that “dedicated” public servants accept modest public paychecks in return for job security and retirement benefits. One need only look at the salaries paid to state troopers after 3 years service to immediately dispel that myth.

    Essex, I know you feel teachers are underpaid and overworked, but this state of NJ has not even begun to feel the effect of their pensions being implemented, but it will!

    My wife is certified to be a teacher, and has applied, on numerous occasions.She was even selected as one of the last five finalists for a position in Morris County, which was filled by a woman with a 2.5 grade average and no experience, she was also the daughter of a town councilman, hmmmn. Ironically most jobs never get posted and are filled through “connections”.

    But the jobs that are posted usually have in excess of 100 applicants, it does pay to know someone.

    She currently does work at a public school,and we do receive full healthcare. We both feel it is criminal what the taxpayer pays for our plan, with $5 co-pays.

    Yet the teachers in her school feel they DESERVE this benefit, no appreciation whatsoever. I can see where Essex would be very upset if you did not get this,but reality people in NJ and elsewhere do without
    insurance for their families, because they cannot afford it,while they pay yours through real estate taxes.

    Essex do you teach in Essex county?

  272. JIM says:
    January 19, 2008 at 8:44 pm

    Essex,

    You are right, I did not realize Bi was one of your advocates.

    The man {woman} who is never wrong!

    Jim

  273. Confused In NJ says:
    January 19, 2008 at 8:44 pm

    264. Cindy

    After 25 years in the classroom I have seem many changes. The most troubling of which is the lack of acceptance of responsibility for one’s actions. Rules are for someone else.

    Do you see what I mean? We have people walking away from houses and leaving others to hold the bag…they are teaching their children to do the same someday…

    Parents are the first and most important teacher a child will ever have…when they come to schools and yell at teachers and disrespect us..what do they think the kids are going to do…

    I agree with you completely, but our Society has changed radically. In my Era, Parenting was a Full Time Job. My better half was a Full Time Homemaker, through choice, for sixteen years. Raising our Children was the First Priority. Her entrance into Outside Work was also Child Related, College Tuition Support. We both always knew she had the more difficult job, even though I worked days and went to school nights. I still took my kids, without her, to the Park on weekends, to give her down time, lest she burn out. The Super Mom of today, Juggling Work and Homemaking, & etc., try as they might, can’t do Multiple Full Time Jobs, as effectively as a Single Full time Job. But Multiple Income Families is the new Paradign, even thought they are NET, no further ahead, then the old way.

  274. kettle1 says:
    January 19, 2008 at 8:49 pm

    from the FED

    Federal Reserve banking update:

    AGGREGATE RESERVES OF DEPOSITORY INSTITUTIONS AND THE MONETARY BASE
    Not adjusted for changes in reserve requirements
    Not seasonally adjusted
    Millions of dollars

    Date______________total___nonborrowed___required
    2008-Jan._16(p)___39989______-1387________38278_

    Yes, that’s a minus sign. Total reserves now appear to consist of loans from the Fed. (Two weeks ago was bad enough, at 75% loans.) No similar event appears to exist within the range of online records, which go back to 1959. (Weekly data available through 1975.)

    http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h3/Current/
    http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h3/hist/h3h …

  275. kettle1 says:
    January 19, 2008 at 8:49 pm

    Federal Reserve banking update:

    AGGREGATE RESERVES OF DEPOSITORY INSTITUTIONS AND THE MONETARY BASE
    Not adjusted for changes in reserve requirements
    Not seasonally adjusted
    Millions of dollars

    Date______________total___nonborrowed___required
    2008-Jan._16(p)___39989______-1387________38278_

    Yes, that’s a minus sign. Total reserves now appear to consist of loans from the Fed. (Two weeks ago was bad enough, at 75% loans.) No similar event appears to exist within the range of online records, which go back to 1959. (Weekly data available through 1975.)

    http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h3/Current/

  276. grim says:
    January 19, 2008 at 8:50 pm

    Basking Ridge Comp Killer

    132 Patriot Hill, Basking Ridge (Bernards) NJ

    Purchased: 3/15/2006
    Purchase Price: $682,000

    MLS# 2453464

    Sold: 1/18/2008
    Sale Price: $627,000

  277. kettle1 says:
    January 19, 2008 at 8:51 pm

    Repost for legability

    Federal Reserve banking update:

    AGGREGATE RESERVES OF DEPOSITORY INSTITUTIONS AND THE MONETARY BASE
    Not adjusted for changes in reserve requirements
    Not seasonally adjusted
    Millions of dollars

    Date: 2008-Jan._16
    total: 39989
    nonborrowed: -1387
    required: 38278

    Yes, that’s a minus sign. Total reserves now appear to consist of loans from the Fed. (Two weeks ago was bad enough, at 75% loans.) No similar event appears to exist within the range of online records, which go back to 1959. (Weekly data available through 1975.)

    http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h3/Current/

  279. kettle1 says:
    January 19, 2008 at 8:53 pm

    last link was incorrect,

    here is the correct link to the historical data

    http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h3/hist/h3hist2.txt

  280. kettle1 says:
    January 19, 2008 at 8:57 pm

    A very interesting read….

    written by a boston university Prof. and from the St Louis FED

    Is the United States Bankrupt?
    Laurence J. Kotlikoff
    Is the United States bankrupt? Many would scoff at this notion. Others would argue that financial
    implosion is just around the corner. This paper explores these views from both partial and general
    equilibrium perspectives. It concludes that countries can go broke, that the United States is going
    broke, that remaining open to foreign investment can help stave off bankruptcy, but that radical
    reform of U.S. fiscal institutions is essential to secure the nation’s economic future. The paper
    offers three policies to eliminate the nation’s enormous fiscal gap and avert bankruptcy: a retail
    sales tax, personalized Social Security, and a globally budgeted universal healthcare system.
    Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, July/August 2006, 88(4), pp. 235-49.

    PDF Warning
    http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/review/06/07/Kotlikoff.pdf

  281. grim says:
    January 19, 2008 at 8:58 pm

    Nice comp killer in Ridgewood

    11 East Glen, Ridgewood NJ
    Short sale

    Purchased: 8/26/2005
    Purchase Price: $560,000

    MLS# 2748837
    Active
    Original List: $549,900
    Currently Asking: $499,900

  282. njpatient says:
    January 19, 2008 at 8:58 pm

    Jim – out of curiosity, how did a 9% increase in pension benefits cause the cost of teachers’ benefits to triple? I’m sure whatever objective source you were quoting was sincere, but maybe you can clear that one up for me, because sometimes I have trouble with math.

  283. Essex says:
    January 19, 2008 at 8:58 pm

    Jim………..your wife’s story is not unusual….teaching is a difficult profession to ‘break into’ — especially good schools. Yet it is a ‘second income’ at best…a teacher alone cannot afford to buy a home in the nice towns they teach in.

  284. kettle1 says:
    January 19, 2008 at 9:01 pm

    sorry for the messy posts :(

  285. JIM says:
    January 19, 2008 at 9:10 pm

    Re 281

    nj patient,
    This is coupled with the increased amount of teachers retiring in the next few years.

    Essex, here is a link to show how poorly teachers are paid, maybe now people can understand why there are so many applicants for each job. http://php.app.com/edstaff/results.php?county=MORRIS&district=MOUNT+OLIVE+TOWNSHIP&school=%25&lname=&fname=&job1=&Submit=Submit

  286. JIM says:
    January 19, 2008 at 9:13 pm

    Re 284,

    Oh and by the way this does not include healthcare or additional monies teachers make,coaching, clubs ,hall duty etc.

    Also these salaries are from last year , not current.

    JIM

  287. Essex says:
    January 19, 2008 at 9:14 pm

    Jim, that is a base salary for a half-way decent sales rep (a sales reps get bonuses for double that in a decent year)….and the six figure people on the chart are administrators. Not teachers.

  288. Essex says:
    January 19, 2008 at 9:17 pm

    P.S. an administrator works 12 months a year….

  289. Ann says:
    January 19, 2008 at 9:17 pm

    Re healthcare for teachers:

    Sometimes I think that we are a very grumpy and ticked off country because we are all so damn scared. Sure, many of us get health care through our employers, but we know the truth, that we are just one job away from being uninsured.

    And we can look at teachers and say, Why do they get healthcare and I don’t (or mine could be in jeopardy at any second)?

    We could strip them and other workers of their healthcare and we might feel like justice has been served. Or we could work to provide universal healthcare and then maybe we would all be less scared, and less angry.

  290. Essex says:
    January 19, 2008 at 9:18 pm

    Amen Ann….it would free up a lot of people to pursue any job they wanted as well. Many people are trapped in jobs they hate for the healthcare.

  291. JIM says:
    January 19, 2008 at 9:21 pm

    Essex,

    In six months a sales rep could, probably will, be out of a job.

    Your right about the adminastrators, but then again the teachers are only working 9.5 months a year or 181 days. Sorry that list is two years old.

    Job security in the really world is non- existent.

  292. kettle1 says:
    January 19, 2008 at 9:24 pm

    hate to side track the teacher discussion,

    but does that bank data not scare anyone else????

  293. Essex says:
    January 19, 2008 at 9:27 pm

    and yet, Jim, if I may be assumptive….if your wife had landed that position, you would probably be more supportive of the pension benefits for educators?

  294. JIM says:
    January 19, 2008 at 9:30 pm

    Kettle,

    More than scary, recession will be spelt like this DEPRESSION.

    I fear where this may be going, now back to the teacher discusssion.

    Jim

  295. Clotpoll says:
    January 19, 2008 at 9:32 pm

    So, has it been decided here that the only two honorable professions in America are IT and engineering?

  296. bi says:
    January 19, 2008 at 9:34 pm

    291#, kettle1, thanks for the link. but i am not clear what exactly these columns (for example, nonborrowed) mean

  297. Essex says:
    January 19, 2008 at 9:37 pm

    It has been decided if you want to make money you go into sales or marketing….if you want to eat ramen and live cheaply (while enjoying the benefits of seeing the Dr of your choice) teach.

  298. Clotpoll says:
    January 19, 2008 at 9:38 pm

    Gary-

    Latest for Green Bay tomorrow:

    Forecast: Afternoon high of 4 F with an overnight low of 1 F, cloudy with snow flurries and winds between 10-15 MPH.

    This is not Eli weather.

  299. JIM says:
    January 19, 2008 at 9:40 pm

    Essex,

    No, I have children and also care for my parents{ in their mid 80’s}.

    Our children cannot financially support this mess the unions and politicians have created, and I worry about their future not mine.

    I sold three houses that were 100% paid off, in 2005 and 2006. Financially I am fine, future generations are NOT going to be able to support these pensions.

    Now Gov Corzine wants to finance our future by bonding highways, more smoke and mirrors, more debt.

    I still have 5 houses to sell, and the tax responsibility is horrendous, ie capital gains and transfer { NJ} taxes.

    Essex, NJ is in trouble, and nobody really seems to care as long as they get their chunk, it is very sad.

  300. dinra says:
    January 19, 2008 at 9:42 pm

    2448935 anybody?

  301. Cindy says:
    January 19, 2008 at 9:42 pm

    290) Jim Actually, job secuity is in jeopardy here for teachers. I’m in a “declining enrollment district” due to foreclosures and so many empty new houses.

    (273) confused – Absolutely… Since society has a new paradigm (2-income families) many more responsibilities have fallen on teachers and schools. If I am to be the one who teaches a child the meaning of the word “no” I simply ask for the parent’s cooperation.

    Jim (271) Ann (260)

    The answer may be to get some realistic benefit packages in place now for new hires. That is what our district needed to do. Also, we do pay co-pays: $20 doctor visit and $20 for prescriptions. – Another district nearby has a premium taken from their check each month. Just called a friend… $136. mo. more if children are added.

    And the 181 days…You’ve heard it all before..I have my weekly tests spread out and my grade book etc. etc….when I walk away from the computer I am getting my weekend school work done.

    You know, it was just a choice I made a long time ago. It has it’s upside and downside, just like anything else.

    I do think, given the need for schools to be involved with more ethical issues these days than in days past, it is an important venue to “get it right.”

  302. njpatient says:
    January 19, 2008 at 9:47 pm

    288/289 Ann/Essex

    Yes.

    Jim: “nj patient,This is coupled with the increased amount of teachers retiring in the next few years”
    I’m sure. I’d love to see that link.

    Kettle – you are consistently voted (a) most likely to ruin my evening for (b) reasons I’m likely to agree with.

  303. Essex says:
    January 19, 2008 at 9:47 pm

    Jim…..yeah…..OK.
    I’ve lived here since 1999. Owned a home since 2002….pay more taxes than you might imagine….Income in this household is in the top tier…..and property taxes have doubled….in the last 5 years. Yet, this is home. For now.

  304. JIM says:
    January 19, 2008 at 9:48 pm

    Re 296

    Did you get a chance to read what teachers were making in 2006. Stop feeling sorry for yourself, many people wish they were in your shoes.

    Jim

    Ps. Remember this is for 181 days a year, salesmen work about 250, and are always on call, ask Clot how many hours he works, I think you would be in for a rude awakening.

  305. Essex says:
    January 19, 2008 at 9:50 pm

    303….I made more in my second year of sales when I was 25 (with a mediocre comp plan) than a teacher with 5 years and a masters makes.

  306. Essex says:
    January 19, 2008 at 9:55 pm

    Jim….uh….pal….your chart has ONE teacher listed — $57,947 with 1o years experience and a masters…..Big bucks?

  307. kettle1 says:
    January 19, 2008 at 9:56 pm

    Clott,

    i would still consider “the oldest profession” honorable, at least they are upfront about their price, unlike politicians

  308. JIM says:
    January 19, 2008 at 9:57 pm

    Cindy,

    Two years ago our Governor announced that unions might have to contribute towards there healthcare.

    The result was a massive demonstration at the state house in trenton, schools were closed all over the state.

    This proposal was promptly dropped{actually even before “the show of force”} and shortly thereafter Corzine annonced that teachers would NEVER have to pay for healthcare, even in retirement, and promptly signed it into law.

    Oh and by the way, teachers support Corzine 100%, I wonder why?

  309. kettle1 says:
    January 19, 2008 at 9:58 pm

    302 patient

    I am honored….. i think

  310. JIM says:
    January 19, 2008 at 10:00 pm

    Essex re 305,

    Hit the next button, sorry I forgot to give you directions.

    LOL, JIM

  311. Essex says:
    January 19, 2008 at 10:01 pm

    And Jim….no one in our household subscribes to the ‘teachers healthcare plan’…we are covered by a better plan from a major corporation.

  312. Cindy says:
    January 19, 2008 at 10:01 pm

    Retirees in my district do pay premiums – If I knew how the 10% cap worked I’d let you know – but I have no idea.. each year their premium is re-calculated (sort of a bummer.) Districts are losing “life-time” benefits because they cannot afford them.

    So..go on…who wins the games tomorrow..?

  313. Essex says:
    January 19, 2008 at 10:04 pm

    Page 2….Jim….It took one guy there 28 years to make $74k…..and this is High Pay?

  314. Essex says:
    January 19, 2008 at 10:04 pm

    I think that the issue here is perception….If you make $100k a year (and beyond) you simply don’t view a $50k a year job as being very lucrative.

  315. Cindy says:
    January 19, 2008 at 10:05 pm

    (307) Jim…. Well that’s just insane.

  316. JIM says:
    January 19, 2008 at 10:07 pm

    Essex,

    If you do not subscribe to the teachers healthcare plan, you are just plain dumb, why would you pay for something that you can get for FREE.

    A little common sense may improve your finances, Sit down with the wife and put it on paper, add the numbers up, BINGO, I know you are not a rocket scientist but,

    JIM

  317. BC Bob says:
    January 19, 2008 at 10:07 pm

    “so whats being insured or bonded that’s going to collapse? a monorail in vegas? xanadu? Pru center parking? The Tunnel?”

    ithink [232],

    Sarcastic or a just a pea brain?

    You’re right, not a big deal. Just pummeled bond derivative losses insured, the garbage can for wall street. Just a hiccup? How about the entire US bank/bond risk management model dissolving before your eyes. A pile of wreckage, with documents of fraud throughout the entire system.

    The entire finacial engineering cloak was protected by a model. Unfortunately, the possible systemic risk caused by the weakened positions of the monoline insurers is alarming and staggering.

    The Pru center parking lot? A $3 stop loss on a bad trade compared to a possible meltdown.

  318. Essex says:
    January 19, 2008 at 10:07 pm

    Cindy….Jim-bo prolly thinks GW Bush is doin a heckuva job too.

  319. Essex says:
    January 19, 2008 at 10:09 pm

    Thanks for the advice Jim….but we get a rebate for passing on the school plan. Appreciate the advice….we can always use a good adviser.

  320. JIM says:
    January 19, 2008 at 10:12 pm

    Gee Essex where does that salary fit in on this scalehttp://www.payscale.com/research/US/State=New_Jersey/Salary

    Remember the other people on this chart work ALL year, and more than 7 hours a day.

    I love the way you cherry pick the salaries, do you want me to do the same?

    JIM

  321. Essex says:
    January 19, 2008 at 10:14 pm

    Jim it’s reality brofus…..REALITY….if you want to buy a home….a car….eat….have a child….you are going to be hard pressed to do it on a teacher’s salary. You WILL need someone in the household with a ‘real’ income. Done.

  322. JIM says:
    January 19, 2008 at 10:15 pm

    Re317,

    Essex showing a little frustration? Bush aint my buddy, My one son is 20, I fear the draft.

    Nothing like throwing stones, eh budddy.

    Jim

  323. Clotpoll says:
    January 19, 2008 at 10:15 pm

    Why do I think the Goldman guys are sifting thru all the mispriced paper, looking for 1 MIL chunks they can control for 50K…then sit back and watch the stuff mature at par?

  324. Essex says:
    January 19, 2008 at 10:19 pm

    Jim….frustration? Why?

    Cause your wife didn’t land a teaching job and you are somehow fixated on the ‘cost’ of this event to your livelihood. I responded to your jab at the democratic governor of the state. I don’t take this stuff personally. I do however strive to help others understand the point of view that I believe is right.

  325. JIM says:
    January 19, 2008 at 10:21 pm

    Re 320,

    Essex , who are you trying to convince, yourself?

    Two teachers in my town, own houses in Morris County, and have another down the shore. Both husband and wife are teachers!

    OK, I am ready for your battle cry,It is all for the kids, are you a bad parent, don’t you care about your own kids. C’mon Essex I have heared it all before, like a broken record.

  326. BC Bob says:
    January 19, 2008 at 10:21 pm

    Teachers, derivatives, Giants, point spreads, Benny and The Fed Heads, MBA’s, index funds, the 4 horseman, carry trade, lcd vs plasma, Tony & Jessica, Larrry Crudelow, revolutions, silos, beans in the teens, rocket launchers, GG etc…

    One thing is obvious, there is no longer a debate regarding a bubble. Where are the wannabes? Wasn’t that the most used word in 2006?

  327. Outofstater says:
    January 19, 2008 at 10:23 pm

    #316 Agreed. The emperor has no clothes and most people are averting their eyes rather than recognizing the truth.

  328. Essex says:
    January 19, 2008 at 10:24 pm

    It’s a new day in America Jim…..and I’m rockin the house. Tell your boy to work hard and one day he can rent one of your three houses.

  329. gary says:
    January 19, 2008 at 10:24 pm

    Clotpoll [297],

    Opie just better suck it up. Maybe he should’ve just let the beard grow all week to look all ragged and tough. Um… that’s if he can grow a beard. :o

  330. Clotpoll says:
    January 19, 2008 at 10:24 pm

    BC (325)-

    Trinidad/Jones?

  331. Essex says:
    January 19, 2008 at 10:26 pm

    Jim says–Two teachers in my town, own houses in Morris County, and have another down the shore. Both husband and wife are teachers!
    ——————————————–

    My guess is that they are both about 60 and have each been teaching 30 years. How does that help a young teacher starting out ???

  332. BC Bob says:
    January 19, 2008 at 10:26 pm

    “Amen Ann….it would free up a lot of people to pursue any job they wanted as well. Many people are trapped in jobs they hate for the healthcare.”

    Courtesy of The Eagles;

    “So often times it happens that we live our lives in chains, and we never even know we have the key”

  333. Cindy says:
    January 19, 2008 at 10:28 pm

    (297)Clot Does that mean you are for Farve??
    The cold weather sure didn’t bother him…
    Is Opie Eli? I am a total Seahawks fan but the looked ridiculous against Farve…

  334. Essex says:
    January 19, 2008 at 10:29 pm

    BC BABY!!! I love that tune.

    Used to play that very song in clubs when I was in college….a ‘Union’ musician…they made us join. I’m sure Jim hates union musicians.

  335. PGC says:
    January 19, 2008 at 10:29 pm

    I know a few people who have a health plan that consists of a budget for CVS and a plane ticket back to their homeland.

  336. Essex says:
    January 19, 2008 at 10:29 pm

    I like Eli….he was a Sigma Nu…as was his father….I think his name was ‘Archie’ something or other….

  337. gary says:
    January 19, 2008 at 10:31 pm

    Opie = Eli, Archie = Opie’s Dad

  338. Cindy says:
    January 19, 2008 at 10:32 pm

    (336 Gary) Oh, I get it..Duh..

  339. BC Bob says:
    January 19, 2008 at 10:33 pm

    “Trinidad/Jones?”

    Clot,

    I think Listen [WAAAHHH, Listen to the crybaby wannabes] is still castaway, at last years Super Bowl, muttering the same.

    Do the old timers, on this blog, remember that blockhead?

  340. kettle1 says:
    January 19, 2008 at 10:33 pm

    296 Bi

    The H.3 release provides data on aggregate reserves of depository institutions, including required reserves, total reserves, excess reserves, nonborrowed reserves, and borrowings by depository institutions from the Federal Reserve’s discount window. The release also provides data on the monetary base, which includes currency and reserves. The release is published weekly.

    here are the numbers again (in millions)

    Date: 2008-Jan._16
    total: 39989
    nonborrowed: -1387
    required: 38278

    So this means that the total cash reserves required for the sum of all Federal Reserve (FR) banks was $39,989 million (39 Billion).

    Required, means the amount of money that banks are required to have on hand, in this data set it = $38,272 million (38 Billion)

    Non-borrowed, means the amount of cash that FR banks have on hand that is not borrowed from the FED discount window. In this data set the FR banks have -$1,387 million (negative 1.3 billion dollars) in reserve.

    Consider what this means. This means that the FR banks have ZERO real money in reserve, all of the money they have on hand is loaned to them from the discount window. This is the same as me saying i have $1,000 in my savings account, even though i only got that 1000 as a cash advance from my credit card!!!!

  341. JIM says:
    January 19, 2008 at 10:34 pm

    Essex,

    It’s funny, you are showing what kind of person you really are,trying to make fun of my son, whom I love dearly, Or my political choices, whats with you?

    You win teachers are underpaid, overworked . When half the people leave NJ because of affordability issues, that is when people will wake up, your wife may even lose her job, but that is doubtful,afterall there is the NJEA.

    I am glad this was done over the internet, because making fun of someones family is serious business.

    Good Night Essex

  342. Clotpoll says:
    January 19, 2008 at 10:34 pm

    gary (328)-

    Eli’s gonna be bundled up tighter than a pig shrink-wrapped in poop. There will be drunken, shirtless fans more comfortable than him out there tomorrow.

  343. Essex says:
    January 19, 2008 at 10:37 pm

    Jim you assume a lot…Like in person you would intimidate me. Your arguments are weak. Your data not convincing….and your family….not a target for me….

  344. BC Bob says:
    January 19, 2008 at 10:37 pm

    “BC BABY!!! I love that tune.”

    Essex[333],

    Talk about old school. How about the Eagles in Roosevelt Stadium in JC. A harbinger of things to come?

    After Bruce and U-2, my fav.

  345. BC Bob says:
    January 19, 2008 at 10:39 pm

    “Eli’s gonna be bundled up tighter than a pig shrink-wrapped in poop.”

    Clot,

    Are you confusing Eli with present day sellers?

  346. Essex says:
    January 19, 2008 at 10:39 pm

    People sometimes rank on me for loving the Eagles….but dammit I cannot help it. I am a sucker for those harmonies….and the guitar work.

  347. bi says:
    January 19, 2008 at 10:39 pm

    339. kettle, thank you for the explanation. the numbers in next few weeks would be interesting.

  348. Essex says:
    January 19, 2008 at 10:40 pm

    P.S. Jim…..I am not really out to hurt your feelings buddy. So if you got pissed off….sorry.

  349. gary says:
    January 19, 2008 at 10:41 pm

    Clotpoll,

    Drug him, juice him up, threaten him, shrink wrap him… whatever it takes to get the lad ready.

  350. gary says:
    January 19, 2008 at 10:45 pm

    Cindy,

    Sports talk shows and fans call him Opie because he looks and talks with this “aw shucks” demeanor. He looks like the boy next door.

  351. kettle1 says:
    January 19, 2008 at 10:47 pm

    can chifi or 3b or someone tell me that i should not be concerned about the FR reserve numbers? is the situation as bad as it looks?

  352. BC Bob says:
    January 19, 2008 at 10:48 pm

    Essex [345],

    F*ck them. You gotta love Joe Walsh;

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4_5U-Mu0yqg

  353. RentinginNJ says:
    January 19, 2008 at 10:48 pm

    RE:85k single
    110K couple

    everywhere i read, i see that the plan is for either all filers, or only for all those who file and actually pay taxes – but i didn’t see an income cut off. last time, if i remember correctly, there was no income cut off –

    where is this information coming from on this cutoff?

    I posted the original message on this. I read this in article on Friday, but I can’t remember the source. Keep in mind, as of this point, nothing has been finalized. The situation is still very fluid.

    Current reports say the Republicans are pushing for an $800 single $1,600 married tax rebate for all files. The key word is “rebate”; meaning you must have had that much tax liability to get anything back.

    The Dems are pushing for $800/$1,600 handouts even if you didn’t pay any taxes or had a tax liability less than $800/$1,600 and are pushing for a cutoff for “higher” income earners. Although, they would also prefer small tax rebates and more govt. spending.

    They will probably meet somewhere in the middle. My guess, just for the sake of simplicity & getting it done quickly, it will be something like the Republican plan on the low end (i.e. you must have at least that much tax liability to get a rebate) with some sort of income limit on the higher end.

    The justification given for the income limit is that, based on studies from the last “stimulus rebate”, higher income earners won’t run out and spend the money on pork rinds and plasma TV’s. They will either save it of pay off debt, which doesn’t provide the intended stimulus. And God forbid, we wouldn’t want to see people save money or pay off debt. How unpatriotic. [sarcasm off]

  354. chicagofinance says:
    January 19, 2008 at 10:48 pm

    Cindy Says:
    January 19th, 2008 at 10:28 pm
    (297)Clot Does that mean you are for Farve??
    The cold weather sure didn’t bother him…
    Is Opie Eli? I am a total Seahawks fan but the looked ridiculous against Farve…

    C: Seahawks strength was a speed pass rush rendered ineffective by snow. In more favorable conditions, the Hawks would’ve made a game.

    I am a Jets fan, but my take on tomorrow is simply whether the D-Line can nail Favre. Cold may make the track slippery, but if they can bum-rush the graybeard, then the Jints secondary won’t be Elvis Patterson-ed into oblivion.

    Eli does not make or break this game, unless he commits gaffes resulting in 14 points.

  355. chicagofinance says:
    January 19, 2008 at 10:50 pm

    kettle1 Says:
    January 19th, 2008 at 10:47 pm
    can chifi or 3b or someone tell me that i should not be concerned about the FR reserve numbers? is the situation as bad as it looks?

    stoli: come again?

  356. kettle1 says:
    January 19, 2008 at 10:52 pm

    chifi plz see my post at 277

  357. Cindy says:
    January 19, 2008 at 10:52 pm

    349 – But Archie is the name of his dad, right? Archie Manning, Eli Manning, Payton Manning… I just laugh at those Payton Manning commercials – the one where he tells the guys “just go out and buy a new shirt…”

  358. kettle1 says:
    January 19, 2008 at 10:52 pm

    oh, and chifi i dont appreciate being downgraded!!!! kettle –> stoli ???? :(

  359. Essex says:
    January 19, 2008 at 10:53 pm

    351………OK BC…..I’m gonna share a true story here….my rock band in college, the one where we played a lot of Eagles tunes….the singer/back-up guitarist…a fellow named Jay…very nice dude.

    Jay had a prized polaroid photo of himself and a lanky dude with long dark hair and a porn mustache. Jay was 9 years-old in the photo and visiting his uncle in a recording studio….Jay’s uncle was the producer on Hotel California. We were just a bunch of dumb kids living outside of Nashville. True.

  360. chicagofinance says:
    January 19, 2008 at 10:55 pm

    BTW – Green Bay is colder than Chicago, but don’t get all fruitcaked out about single digits. It will impact some….snow is a much more important issue.

    I’ve walked around in -15F (February 1996). You deal – case closed.

    To give you an idea, you need to wear one of those head socks, and as you inhale and exhale, you feel all of the moisture in your nose cracking as it freezes almost instantaneously.

  361. Essex says:
    January 19, 2008 at 10:57 pm

    Very Cold air is body temp before it hits the lungs….any issues with cold into the breathing way is due to ‘dryness’ not cold.

  362. chicagofinance says:
    January 19, 2008 at 10:58 pm

    kettle1 Says:
    January 19th, 2008 at 10:52 pm
    oh, and chifi i dont appreciate being downgraded!!!! kettle –> stoli ???? :(

    ket: when I was in Moscow, I only drank Stoli (brushed my teeth with it) and Coke for fluid…..no water….I consider it life and blood…..good enough for you?

  363. Essex says:
    January 19, 2008 at 10:58 pm

    351………OK BC….First take is in moderation — must have not liked the word p*rn…..I’m gonna share a true story here….my rock band in college, the one where we played a lot of Eagles tunes….the singer/back-up guitarist…a fellow named Jay…very nice dude.

    Jay had a prized polaroid photo of himself and a lanky dude with long dark hair and a p*rn mustache. Jay was 9 years-old in the photo and visiting his uncle in a recording studio….Jay’s uncle was the producer on Hotel California. We were just a bunch of dumb kids living outside of Nashville. True.

  364. chicagofinance says:
    January 19, 2008 at 10:59 pm

    Essex Says:
    January 19th, 2008 at 10:57 pm
    Very Cold air is body temp before it hits the lungs….any issues with cold into the breathing way is due to ‘dryness’ not cold.

    SX: I said my nose?

  365. gary says:
    January 19, 2008 at 10:59 pm

    eff Favre the old b*stard, eff the cold, eff Title Town and eff the prognosticators.

    23 hours ’till the end of the old gray bast*rds career.

    PS – Tony Romo is still a ______.

  366. Essex says:
    January 19, 2008 at 11:02 pm

    ChiFi…I know….I thought I would just share some trivia…people are more likely to be injured exercising in warmth than cold temps.

  367. gary says:
    January 19, 2008 at 11:02 pm

    Cindy,

    Yes, Archie is poppa. He was the QB for the Saints thru the 70’s and was a very good QB surrounded by a bad team. I agree, I love the Peyton commercials.

  368. Essex says:
    January 19, 2008 at 11:02 pm

    Tony Romo….is still a LUCKY bast*rd

  369. chicagofinance says:
    January 19, 2008 at 11:04 pm

    kettle1 Says:
    January 19th, 2008 at 10:47 pm
    can chifi or 3b or someone tell me that i should not be concerned about the FR reserve numbers? is the situation as bad as it looks?

    Ket: why would you be concerned? have a Soli shot…..

  370. chicagofinance says:
    January 19, 2008 at 11:04 pm

    kettle1 Says:
    January 19th, 2008 at 10:47 pm
    can chifi or 3b or someone tell me that i should not be concerned about the FR reserve numbers? is the situation as bad as it looks?

    Ket: why would you be concerned? have a Stoli shot…..

  371. gary says:
    January 19, 2008 at 11:05 pm

    Essex,

    (sigh)…… yes, she isn’t too tough to look at. But, eff her too! LOL!

  372. Cindy says:
    January 19, 2008 at 11:06 pm

    (353) chicagofinance -Thanks for saying it might have been a game without the snow but…We gave Alexander all that money – what two years ago?.. and he’s worthless. No running game in the snow…looked pretty ugly.

  373. BC Bob says:
    January 19, 2008 at 11:08 pm

    “Jay’s uncle was the producer on Hotel California.”

    Essex [361],

    And they were singing about the excess in America. Talk about being pioneers.

  374. kettle1 says:
    January 19, 2008 at 11:10 pm

    361 chifi,

    1st, smart idea! 2nd point taken
    00
    \/

  375. BC Bob says:
    January 19, 2008 at 11:13 pm

    “Ket: why would you be concerned? have a Stoli shot…..”

    How about Stoli Vanilla, up, with a splash of Godiva liqueur.

  376. ithink-ithink says:
    January 19, 2008 at 11:14 pm

    #316 – bc bob

    Q:
    Sarcastic or a just a pea brain?
    A:
    pea brain

    seriously. explain. i don’t get it.

  377. BC Bob says:
    January 19, 2008 at 11:16 pm

    “We gave Alexander all that money – what two years ago?..”

    Cindy [370],

    Name the college that produced your QB.

  378. ithink-ithink says:
    January 19, 2008 at 11:16 pm

    #316
    p.s. don’t be such a fuchschtick.

  379. BC Bob says:
    January 19, 2008 at 11:18 pm

    “Sarcastic or a just a pea brain?”

    ithink,

    Simply put, I wasn’t sure if you were punting or running a flag pattern?

  380. Cindy says:
    January 19, 2008 at 11:19 pm

    (375) Hasselback – Hell -I don’t know…
    Where did he go to college?

  381. Pat says:
    January 19, 2008 at 11:19 pm

    373 Can I substitute a swig of cheap gin and a bite of a leftover chocolate Santa Claus made of cheap waxy stuff?

  382. RentinginNJ says:
    January 19, 2008 at 11:20 pm

    I took an international markets course for my MBA program. The professor talked about the barter system. His example was that in the 1980’s the Soviets wanted Pepsi. Since the Ruple was not allowed to float in currency markets, we used to trade Pepsi for Stoli.

  383. njpatient says:
    January 19, 2008 at 11:21 pm

    “294. Clotpoll Says: January 19th, 2008 at 9:32 pm
    So, has it been decided here that the only two honorable professions in America are IT and engineering?”

    Thanks, clot – that crap has grown tiresome.

  384. Cindy says:
    January 19, 2008 at 11:21 pm

    I did know Holmgren coached both Farve and Hasselback….

  385. Confused In NJ says:
    January 19, 2008 at 11:22 pm

    ATT changed their Healthcare in 2005 to a High Deductible Medical Plan, after such was passed by Congress along with Medicare Part D. Under the High Deductible Medical Plan, Individual + 1 retirees would be paying an annual premium for the insurance of $2,650. In network they are then responsible for the first $2,200 of Medical Costs, out of network they are responsible for the first $6,300 of Medical Costs. Prescriptions are included in Medical Costs. After they spend $4,650 In Network or $8,950 Out of Network, benefits start. Even after Benefits start, if you dare ask for a brand name drug, when a generic exists, plan on paying about 98% of the Cost. Example Norvasc, I paid $238, they paid $1.40, after all deductibles were satisfied. This is what Bush pushed through in 2004 for the Corporations, and in the words of Ross Perot, hear the great sucking sound as they all jump on board. The IRS then ups the numbers annually, so that your costs are indexed for inflation. Their is no Cost of Living Allowance on the Pensions, you suck it up, and choose medicine or cat food.

  386. Pat says:
    January 19, 2008 at 11:23 pm

    Bob, who could forget Listen. That particular character was not around very long.

    But who is willing to confess to being the $300 Jeans Guy from Queens?

    I’ve been worried about Jeans.

  387. BC Bob says:
    January 19, 2008 at 11:23 pm

    “Where did he go to college?”

    Cindy [378],

    BC.

  388. njpatient says:
    January 19, 2008 at 11:27 pm

    Jim – outta curiosity, what do you do for a living?

  389. BC Bob says:
    January 19, 2008 at 11:27 pm

    Pat [384],

    Where are these characters? One of my favs, BIA, and the chart discussion. I sure hope there are new Career Builder commercials, Super Bowl, monkeys reading the charts.

  390. Cindy says:
    January 19, 2008 at 11:27 pm

    Good Evening folks…Have fun.

  391. kettle1 says:
    January 19, 2008 at 11:32 pm

    NJ patient,

    if you would like, in all future posts i can just piss on your back and offer you an umbrella

  392. Clotpoll says:
    January 19, 2008 at 11:51 pm

    Hate Eagles. Love Steely Dan.

    Steely Dan is the only ’70s-’80s stuff I can listen to that doesn’t make me feel old. Tunes still sound like they could’ve been written yesterday, and the band doesn’t put on a crap show or humiliate themselves live.

  393. Essex says:
    January 19, 2008 at 11:53 pm

    Clotpoll. You just hafta had the history. The Eagles represent everything right about the 70’s….besides….I once crooned 7 bridges road to a cheerleader and it totally got me ******.

  394. Hard Place says:
    January 20, 2008 at 12:11 am

    Anybody else tracking prices in Mendham? Compared to last year the prices are dropping fairly steeply. For example MLS 2473810 I’ve seen listed for the longest time. I forget the exact number, but I’m sure LP has dropped at least 20%.

  395. lurking renter says:
    January 20, 2008 at 2:40 am

    Could someone give me an address/sales history on MLS: 2470196? It looks like a flip to me.

    Also, is there something wrong with High Bridge? It seems like there are lower than surrounding areas.

  396. Damian says:
    January 20, 2008 at 4:00 am

    Anyone else think that instead of another set of tax breaks from the government to boost the economy, they should just make it a federal law that property tax could not exceed .05% of the total value of the property? Honestly, I work part-time as a delivery guy for a pharmacy and more frequently now I see older retired folks saying they have to sell their homes because they can not pay for the taxes and all their healthcare bills… It’s ridiculous that someone can be paying $11,000 (Bergen County) for property tax after they paid off their mortgage. It’s gotten to the point that your house never belongs to you, you’re merely renting it from the state.

Comments are closed.