From Bloomberg:
Bernanke Battles Wrong Ghost in Deflation Specter
Ben Bernanke is spooked. That’s one explanation for the Federal Reserve chairman’s decision to lead the Open Market Committee in yesterday’s unprecedented 75-basis- point cut in the fed funds rate.
The Fed spoke of a “weakening of the economic outlook and increasing downside risks to growth,” a vague phrase that reminds us that what Milton Friedman said in 1965 is still true: “We are all Keynesians now,” monetary and fiscal fiddlers who think the government has a broad mandate to manage the economy.
But what Bernanke was also saying was that he fears a more general contraction of money and credit. If not outright deflation, then disinflation, a slowdown in price increases.
He and his allies note, in defense of their move, that long-term interest rates aren’t high and, indeed, have generally headed down this month. That suggests that investors don’t fear inflation. Still, if you look at some of the other standard measures, you don’t see deflation or disinflation, or anything else that starts with “D.” You see an “I” — inflation.
With deflation, borrowing becomes hard even for worthy customers. Today, even not-so-worthy customers lack mailboxes big enough to hold the solicitations from lenders.
…
With deflation, the currency strengthens. These days the dollar is retreating, to put it kindly. Shorting the dollar is so hot that every fool and his brother is clicking on “prudentbear.com,” a fund that claims it can help investors protect against a weakening greenback.Bernanke knows the difference because he spent so many years describing the great deflation that was the Great Depression. Then, as Bernanke noted in a 2002 speech, prices dropped an average of 10 percent a year — for four years in a row.
…
In his essays, some of the greatest in his field, Bernanke painfully describes the housing market of 1933. It was so far from Century 21 and condo flipping as to be another world. Half of all farms were late on payments. One in five owners in major cities was in default on payment of interest or principal, and in places such as Cleveland, Indianapolis and Birmingham, Alabama, half or more of families were in danger of losing their homes.
…
Today, Senator Hillary Clinton, or George W. Bush’s administration for that matter, can talk about how “the middle class is stalled,” and express concern for those seeking homes. But “stalled” only describes a small group. Half a year into the credit crisis, a good share of Americans are still customizing their mortgages, like someone placing a latte order at Starbucks.“Stalled” isn’t something we have experienced. “Stalled” is what heads of households were in January 1982, when they went into a bank and learned the fixed rate for a 30- year mortgage was about 17.5 percent.
…
Anyone who talks about the end of the housing dream may want to reacquaint himself with the story of Tall Paul. That many adults have no financial memory of that period or the Nixon-Lyndon Johnson years before that may be the best explanation for the mysteriously low long-term rates of today.So our national problem may be that we remember the 1970s too little and the Depression too well. The country will live with the consequences, good or less good. In any case, one thing is true: We are all Bernankes now.
From the WSJ:
Housing Market Fix Is Unlikely to Be Quick
Wall Street is hungry for quick fixes. Every time a bank gets a capital infusion or the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, investors start wondering if the worst is over. Maybe the market is saying the economic damage of the housing bust is too deep for fast solutions.
The Fed’s surprise rate cut yesterday came a week after Citigroup Inc. and Merrill Lynch & Co. rounded up a combined $19.1 billion in capital from outside investors and just a few days after President Bush floated a $150 billion economic-stimulus plan. None of these moves averted a global stock selloff.
While market meltdowns can happen in a flash, housing cycles tend to unfold slowly. Consider the real-estate cycle of the late 1980s and early 1990s. Builders broke ground on 1.8 million housing units in 1986, and then watched the construction market sink for five years before a recovery kicked in.
Complicating matters, Wall Street’s loan-securitization machine is broken. Investors are wary of the structured products peddled by investment banks and the triple-A credit ratings that come with them. While some investors may start sniffing out deals in this market, many won’t return for some time no matter how low rates go. It doesn’t mean the Fed shouldn’t lower rates. It does mean investors shouldn’t expect easier monetary policy to be a quick cure to economic ills.
From the Washington Post:
Only When the Bubble Bursts
Looked at from a certain angle, the Fed’s dramatic (though not unexpected) rate cut yesterday morning is a bit screwy.
After all, what got us into this mess in the first place was too much cheap credit that was used to buy houses, finance corporate takeovers and commercial real estate and speculate in commodities, driving up the price of said houses, takeover targets, office buildings and commodities to levels unsupported by the economic fundamentals.
Now the bubble has burst and the prices of those assets are beginning to fall back to more reasonable levels. Why would anyone want to interrupt that process by bringing back the cheap credit?
The short and oversimplified answer can be summed up in three words: the Great Depression. For that was very much the attitude of the Federal Reserve and other central banks after the stock market crash of 1929. To a lesser extent, it is also the lesson of Japan’s bungled policy response to the bursting of its real estate and stock market bubble in the early 1990s. As USA Today’s David J. Lynch pointed out in a timely piece yesterday, the leading academic expert on both failures is none other than the current chairman of the Federal Reserve, Ben S. Bernanke.
From the Times Herald-Record:
2007 home market rough in Sullivan
It was a rough year for Sullivan’s real estate market, and that could mean bad news for the county’s economy in 2008.
Not only were there fewer sales and dropping home prices, but also more people are losing homes and properties to foreclosure.
New deeds, which indicate real estate activity generally, dropped for the third consecutive year. There were 1,431 deeds issued in 2007, down from a peak of 5,403 in 2004. The number of new subdivisions declined last year by 149, suggesting big-time housing development is cooling.
Foreclosures increased sharply for the second year running, indicating more people with adjustable, high interest mortgages are struggling.
Homes sales also dropped last fall, reflecting fears of a recession brought on by the subprime mortgage crisis.
“In the fourth quarter of 2007 as compared to 2006, home sales were down 22 percent,” said David Knudsen of the Catskills Buyer Agency, a Sullivan Realtor who tracks the market in a real estate blog. “I think the real downturn started in late summer.”
From the NY Times:
How to Stop the Downturn
AMERICA’S economy is headed for a major slowdown. Whether there is a recession (two quarters of negative growth) is less important than the fact that the economy will operate well below its potential, and unemployment will grow. The country needs a stimulus, but anything we do will add to our soaring deficit, so it is important to get as much bang for the buck as possible. The optimal package would contain one fast-acting measure along with others that could lead to increased spending if and only if the economy goes into a steep downturn.
…
The day of reckoning has come. This time we need a stimulus that stimulates. The question is, will the president and Congress put aside politics to get the job done?
From MarketWatch:
Merrill Lynch says U.S. nationwide home prices may fall 30%
Merrill Lynch forecasts nationwide U.S. home prices could decline 25% to 30% over the next three years, as new supply and weak demand weigh on the market. “This sounds dire… but would only reverse part of the unprecedented 130% price surge from 2000 to 2006,” wrote economist David Rosenberg in a research note released Wednesday. Rosenberg added the S&P 500 may decline an additional 20% to 25% to breach the 1,100-point level if the market follows historical precedents at times when the U.S. economy is in recession.
1) One part of the story that does not get much play is the demographic story on real estate. (Note graph.) Baby boomers will try to cash out of homes to fund their retirement. Now, that effect will vary by region, because oldsters will want to live in warmer or drier climates. Perhaps apartments in Florida, the South and the West will benefit, as homes in the Midwest and Northeast languish. Then again, at least in the Midwest, it would be cheap to live there, as well as less popular areas in the South. Perhaps we should turn New Orleans into a haven for retirees.
http://www.seekingalpha.com/article/61138-three-notes-on-housing
As I posted the other day there is no light at the end of the tunnel or hurry to buy at all.When this downturn in houseing
shakes out 2-3 years from now the boomers selling will create more downward pressure
while decline in pop. in younger buyers force prices to remain flat.
This will be true for our target market.Traditional retirement states may be helped,but only if boomers can sell here.The only hole I see is interest rates.
It will be what should guide our buying time
line.In 6-12 monthes the declines should bottom out.Then the rate will become the factor in the buy.Right now rates are secondary as lower price will make payments lower & overall debt less.Patience is the key to a good buy.
Check out link,graph very telling.
From MarketWatch:
Refi applications continue their rebound
The volume of mortgage applications filed last week rose a seasonally adjusted 8.3% compared to the prior week as mortgage interest rates continued their decline, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported on Wednesday.
Refinance applications drove the increase: Applications to line up new financing on an existing loan rose 16.9% during the week ended Jan. 18, compared with the previous week, according to the MBA’s weekly survey.
…
Week-to-week applications for mortgages to purchase a home decreased a seasonally adjusted 4.6%, the MBA said.
From MarketWatch:
Downey Financial posts $109 million loss on housing problems
Downey Financial swung to a fourth-quarter loss of $108.8 million, or $3.90 a share, saying the continued weakening of the housing market and its uncertain future have unfavorably impacted borrowers and the value of their loan collateral. Excluding tax, there was a $218.2 million increase in provision for credit losses; a $40.9 million decline in net interest income due to a lower level of interest-earning assets and a lower effective interest rate spread; an $8.4 million decline in net gains on sales of loans and mortgage-backed securities due to both a lower level of loans sold and gain per dollar of loan sold; and a $5.3 million increase in operating expense, of which $4.5 million related to higher costs associated with the operation of real estate acquired in settlement of loans. Analysts polled by Thomson Financial expected a loss of 6 cents a share.
Trichet to Bernanke: Up yours, rookie.
Trichet Says ECB Still Focused on Fighting Inflation
European Central Bank President Jean- Claude Trichet said he’s committed to fighting inflation even after stock markets plunged and the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates to avert a recession.
“Particularly in demanding times of significant market correction and turbulences, it is the responsibility of the central bank to solidly anchor inflation expectations to avoid additional volatility,” Trichet told the European Parliament in Brussels today.
Typical Soros?
From Bloomberg:
Soros Sees End of Dollar as World’s Reserve Currency
Billionaire investor George Soros said the fallout from the U.S. subprime crisis will bring about the end of the dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency.
“The current crisis is not only the bust that follows the housing boom, it’s basically the end of a 60-year period of continuing credit expansion based on the dollar as the reserve currency,” Soros said in a debate today at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. “Now the rest of the world is increasingly unwilling to accumulate dollars.”
“Now the rest of the world is increasingly unwilling to accumulate dollars.”
[10],
The dollar is toast.
Ben tries to salvage our equity markets and is seen as the laughing stock throughout the world. The action smells of panic. Don’t be surprised if it further unsettles markets. Very sad indeed.
Sounds like Roach and Roubini are the rock stars in Davos.
Wednesday’s Outlook: Where To From Here?
http://seekingalpha.com/article/61152-wednesday-s-outlook-where-to-from-here
Crazy getting calls today, huge volume expected at open.
6 mikeinwaiting
Ugh, the boomers. Not in reference to your post, but I am so tired about hearing about the boomers. : )
For example, Newsweek has turned into an honorary tribute the to boomers. Their music, how they changed the world, how they didn’t, where they should retire now, ugh.
Quick Ben, investors are upset about the Apple report, you need to cut rates another 50bps.
apple, gold, oil equities down baby down today.
If you notice CD yields did not fall yesterday cause they already priced in the Jan 30 rate cut. That bozo bernie is going to do another 50bp on Jan 30 so this week is the last week for good CD yields for the rest of 2008.
Bernie is going to drive long term yields up by causing inflation with such low short term yields. Lock in short term this week and go long in 2009. Same for mortgages will be a few months window to lock in a long term cheap mortgage, next year long term will be back up.
Until I get annual reports and 1st q 2008 numbers it is hard to assess the juicy yielding financial stocks. I hate playing defense with my money but bernie is making it tough to read the tea leaves.
fyi QUOTE TRAFFIC beat the all time high by 10% yesterday, that is historic.
“Merrill Lynch says U.S. nationwide home prices may fall 30%”
Absurd – Merrill should be the subject of ridicule. Pretorius, I nominate you.
Who could have ever known that giving loans to people that couldn’t afford to pay them back was bad business?
From the AP:
Moody’s Lowers AmeriCredit Outlook
Credit rating agency Moody’s Investors Service said Wednesday it revised subprime auto lender AmeriCredit Corp.’s outlook to negative from stable.
The outlook was changed after AmeriCredit said it will lose $19 million for its second fiscal quarter, which ended Dec. 31.
Moody’s also said deterioration in the credit markets and rising delinquencies and defaults among consumer loans could continue to put pressure on the lender.
I posted this last night and just have to post it again…
Okay… WTF?!
Glen Rock
SLD 542 ACKERMAN AVE $360,000 3/31/2004
SLD 542 ACKERMAN AVE $810,000 6/28/2005
(New construction on existing foundation)
SLD 542 ACKERMAN AVE $790,000 6/22/2006
SLD 542 ACKERMAN AVE $782,000 8/22/2007
ACT 542 ACKERMAN AVE $819,000 1/22/2008
(NJMLS 2802998)
Anyone think they’ll get anything near asking?
Anyone think they’ll get even get anything near ‘07 let alone ‘06 sold price?
#20 Rich: I saw that last night, and I would say no where near what they are asking. Ackerman is also a very busy street, liks many others in Glen Rock.
And Glen Rock taxes are insane.
Rich,
Easy one.
$819k is the breakeven price based on a $782k purchase price.
The commission on the listing is 4%.
$819,000 & 0.96 = $786,000. Add in closing costs and you are pretty much at purchase price.
It is clear that the pricing decision wasn’t based on what the market would bear, but what the seller would.
#18 nj patient: I would be happy to take pret on a walking tour of Lower Manhattan to show him all the new conods that have not even come on the market yet, that will be competing with all the inventory that is already on the market there for sale.
I am talking about 30 and 40 story old office buildings being converted, and every thing in between. Its amazing this stuff is going to overwhelm the Manhattan real estate market.
Taken from the intro of “Crash Proof” by Peter D. Schiff written in 2006-released early in 2007
“…economists today dismiss as passe’ the concerns we traditionalists have about such economic fundamentals as savings rates, manufacturing activity, federal deficits, unfunded liabilities, counterparty risks, consumer debt, and trade and current account deficits. To modern economists, we are now living in a new era where Americans can consume and borrow indefinitely while the rest of the world saves and produces in their stead.”
“This book aims to shatter that myth once and for all, and show that this so-called “new era,” like all those that preceded it, will fade as quickly as it appeared-that “America.com” is no more viable than any of the now-bankrupt dot-coms that once populated the investment landscape.”
So we need to save and produce, too!
Would it be helpful if any economic stimulus package included a tax break on saving’s interest in an attempt to get Americans saving again? Would you include capital gains? How do we get pointed back in the right direction?
#23 Should be all the condos
#22 grim They will IMo be lucky to get some where in the 600’s. And again a busy street, in a declining market, people will not have to settle for a busy street.
I look at it like this, if stocks have been priced by analysts on the assumption that Goldilocks has been alive for the last three months, and it looks like Goldilocks has been dead at least that long, why not wait until after earnings for the stocks to reflect their true P/E before stepping back in?
Having said that I don’t declare to know anything more than anybody else. If you bought on the dip yesterday I would think that your upside is much greater than your downside. I am just saying I think things have further to go down and wouldn’t have wanted to be somebody who bought Apple going into earnings.
324 Cindy: Would it be helpful if any economic stimulus package included a tax break on saving’s interest in an attempt to get Americans saving again?
The question is how many Americans have the ability to save, if much of their disposable income goes to servicing their existing debt?
according to analysts on CNBC(TV), the housing might have bottomed. LOL…yea right!!!
“So we need to save and produce, too!”
Cindy,
Bingo.
Anyone here lends on prosper.com, I have been looking at this for while and typical ROI are 9-11%
We are getting a tax break on the interest earned on savings – a 50% tax cut!!!!
Last year you could of got a 5.5% CD, soon it will be a 2.75% CD. Half the interest means half the taxes!!!!!!!!
#20,
Looking at the sales history of this property – – five sales in as many years – – one can see how we got into this mess. People trading houses like commodities. Why? Is it that much fun to have your house on the market and move?
#29 the housing might have bottomed. LOL…yea right!!!
They have been saying that since 06. Not only has it not bottomed, its biggest declines lie ahead as we move further into 08.
(28) 3b – Yeah, I know we have a problem as a nation. But, that being said, there are plenty of intelligent people out there (check this board) who HAVE saved..and they should be rewarded. THAT sends the right message to everyone else.
I’m attempting to be a realist. We cannot go back and undo the damage that has been done but we can “do right” going forward.
Remember, I am only just learning but….
If they plan to use $150B for a stimulus package, it would be great if it actually helps our economy in the long-run. Doesn’t focusing on “buy more now” only entrench us in our current false sense of “spending” security?
#30 BC Bob“So we need to save and produce, too!”
Can’t save if you don’t have it.
A dollar saved is a dollar not spent.
There is no way any stimulus package will include anything that will attempt to increase savings.
Never.
NEW YORK (Reuters) – Applications for home mortgages jumped for a third consecutive week as plunging interest rates encouraged more homeowners to seek refinancings, an industry group said on Wednesday. The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of refinancing applications surged 16.9 percent in the week ending January 18 to 4,178.2, the highest level since March 2004. The activity was up 92 percent since the beginning of November and more than offset a 4.6 percent fall last week in the index for home purchase applications to 439.9, it said.
# 28 “The question is how many Americans have the ability to save, if much of their disposable income goes to servicing their existing debt?”
The same might be said of the USG, state govts, and municipalities. When a government spends 1/3 or more on its budget, it foregoes the opportunity to spend 1/6th of its budget on long-term investments while cutting taxes. Government borrowing for current expenses is like taking a home equity loan in order to go on vacation.
I really wish the MBA would shift their methodology and report approvals, not applications.
Without any insight into how many applications are being approved/denied, and how many individuals are submitting multiple applications, we can’t determine anything from those numbers.
Why doesn’t the media pooh-pooh the MBA numbers like it did with the RealtyTrac foreclosure numbers?
Exactly the same situation.
Futures looking bad again dow -221,what are
Bennie & The Fed going to do now.Now thats a song we can do at the GTG.I can hear it now, of course this after a major attitude
ajustment.
#35 Cindy The problem is they do not want to reward the intelligent ones and the prudent ones. They want to reward the recklesss cry babies.
This so called stimulus is to get people to gou out and spend, not save an invest.
I have no problem with giving incentives to save.My point is many will not be able to as their disposable income can only cover pymts on existing debt.
The intelliget and prudent will save, with or without incentives, because they know thats the smart thing to do.
#39 Shoreguy And NJ wrote the hand book on just how to do that.
#37 grim: I agree.
# 39 “When a government spends 1/3 or more on its budget”
SHOULD READ
When a government spends 1/3 or more on its budget ON INTEREST PAYMENTS
I need more coffee!!!!!!!
(42) 3b I hear you. The more I learn..the less I know. I so want to see us be able to turn this train wreck around…
#45 shoreguy: Most towns in prestigious Bergen Co, have no budget surplus, emergency fund; they spent it.
# 47 That is downright criminal. It all goes back to the “affordability” issue with respect to tax increases. “Our residents have the ability to pay,” so it is ok to poorly manage our resources and to raise taxes year after year. Just because I can afford to pay more for my business travel and expenses each year doesn’t mean that I dont try to reduce those costs. Just because I could afford to go out and buy a couple of Rolls Royces this morning doesn’t mean that it would be prudent. Just because residents of Alpine can afford to pay just about any damned tax the town decides to impose doesn’t mean that it is proper to allopw taxes to rise unabated.
njpatient Says:
January 22nd, 2008 at 11:10 pm
NBC news guy was mugged in Manhattan
I’ll bet it was Doyle, in the pub, with a knife!
NJP,
Twas’nt me… I was on the Westside trying to cash some dead guy’s SS check. It was hard as hell to roll that MF’er down the street.
#48 shoreguy Correct, but that is not thr mentality that governs the local politicians and school board members.
The more we spens, the more affluent we can pretend we are. If you question the expenditures, than you will be accused of being “against the kids”.
Or horrors people will think you are not affluent. And people talk, especially in small towns. This disease is more prevelant in the wannabee towns.
Once our credibility is totally wiped out -and no one wants to invest a cent in the US of A…even our stranglehold on “intellect” ( as I understand it -one of our exports) will be lost.
Talk about back to basics…
I feel like I am bent over and Dirk Digler is about to make me a man. Today is one of those days in the market.
C’mon Ben, Dow down almost 200 this morning, that should be good for at least a quarter point cut, no?
# 52
A funny, not so funny, tale of two investors. At the end of the year, I had a chunk of cash to drop into a 401(k), as did a friend. He threw his into an index fund in December. I was busy and stuck it into a money fund, just until I could make up my mind how to spread it around. Well, in just a month, I am up quite a bit relative to where I would have been had I tossed it into just about any broad-market fund. Sometimes, he who hesitates is not lost. The same seems to be true of RE at the moment.
Oh my, Dow down 200. Didn’t Ben come to the aid of the markets yesterday? Emergency meeting, cut again.
20 Rich re Ackerman house
I say 700K for it at the most. That’s where they should price it too if they really want to sell it. It is new, so that is somewhat desirable in a town like Glen Rock.
324 Cindy: Would it be helpful if any economic stimulus package included a tax break on saving’s interest in an attempt to get Americans saving again?
Absolutely not.
The US economy is driven by consumer spending. Saving takes money away from spending. In fact, in the economic stimulus package currently under discussion, there is a lot of debate about an income cut-off level, above which you would not get a rebate. The justification given is that high income earners will save their rebate or use it to pay down debts, which would not act to stimulate the economy.
“Why doesn’t the media pooh-pooh the MBA numbers like it did with the RealtyTrac foreclosure numbers?”
Because, contra bi, re50.5 and others who blame the downturn on the media, the media are still cheerleaders, and the former does not fit their preferred narrative the way the latter does.
Heck, the DJIA is only down 218 right now. Yesterday at this time it was down 400. I guess that means it should end the day 100 points higher? :-)
Or not.
C’mon Ben, Dow down almost 200 this morning, that should be good for at least a quarter point cut, no?
FF futures pricing an 80% chance of another 50 bp cut at next weeks meeting.
As Cramer pointed out, we are heading to the 1800’s, so Schools need to retool for a Farming Society. One Room School Houses are cheaper, anyway. On days we need rain, we may have to put God back in schools though.
“Twas’nt me… I was on the Westside trying to cash some dead guy’s SS check. It was hard as hell to roll that MF’er down the street.”
Lol
I read that story – what a riot!
#45 Ann Not on Ackerman, not in this environment. There are over 70 houses for sale in GR right now, in the dead of January. No need to settle for Ackerman.
#58 – Not to mention that RealtyTrac is from the intarwebz which is filled with lies and kid touchers. Unlike traditional print media, who you can always trust!
64 tosh
So true. The MSM sure does hate all the grim’s of the world, out there wrecking their meme’s and narratives. They don’t even go to the right cocktail parties!
tosh,
Unfortunately, despite the multiple counting problem, on a percentage change basis their numbers are in-line with other groups.
Foreclosures up 353% in S.D. County in 2007
Setting dismal records, home foreclosures more than tripled and notices of mortgage default more than doubled in San Diego County in 2007.
DataQuick Information Systems reported yesterday that foreclosures rose 353 percent to 7,349, while default notices – the start of the foreclosure process – increased 128 percent to 20,138. The numbers were the highest since DataQuick began keeping track of county foreclosures in 1988 and defaults in 1992.
again, homebuilders outperform broad market by wide margin (3%) this morning. if you believe homebuilders are leading indicator for real estate market, the bottom has been already reached.
#66 bi: If you believe homebuilders are leading indicator for real estate market, the bottom has been already reached.
Now all the home builders have to do is sell all that inventory and we are good to go right?
Except thats not happening any time soon, and along the way at least one of the big home builders is going under.
Homebuilders a leading indicator of the housing market?
Homebuilders (XHB) are down more than 50% in the past year, more than 60% in the past two years.
I guess you are saying that housing has 50% more to fall?
Bi, you sure are grim.
to quote a comment i heard yesterday ( i dont remember where);
te 150 billion stimulus package is nothing but a 150 billion stimulus package for the Chinese economy
what gets me is that i have only heard 1 maybe 2 economists actually say that we need a recession and that spending is the problem, not the solution.
another .50 cut next week???
68#, grim, the dismal last year was gone. you have to look at recent activities. major homebuilders have already coverd to the start of the year while s&p 500 is still down 15%. just observations.
We talked about this when the story first broke.
If we want a U.S. directed stimulus package, why not provide a rebate to taxpayers based on purchases of goods and services made and delivered in the USA?
# 66 “bottom has been already reached.”
Isnt that what Diggler told John?
# 71 “another .50 cut next week???”
.25 would cause equities to drop
.5 is so widely accepted I suspect equities would be flat
So, I would not be surprised to see a .75 reduction, in an attempt to show that Big Ben has a firm grip on things and is ready and willing to heat up the market.
grim 73
But what is really made in the US anymore? There are numerous products that are labeled as made in the US but they are actually made in china or elsewhere and since final assembly is done in the US it is considered MADE IN THE US. I do not know if you could practically do what you suggested. besides what products are made in the US that the average consumer readily buys?
On second thought, there is another term for what is happening to you when one gets a firm grip and heats things up. Upon further reflection, maybe that is what is happening.
here is an answer to my own question
http://www.stillmadeinusa.com/shoppingindex.html
bi,
You are looking for bottom wherever you can find one. Any time an indicator pops up that can even remotely be spun positive, you attempt to do so.
XHB is down 60%, which you fail to mention, as you are more interested in the daily noise. It’s amazing, when XHB drops, you are nowhere to be found, but when it pops, you bust in here with guns a’ blazin’.
You’ve been trying to call the “bottom” using XHB since July 26/27, 2007. Since that point XHB has fallen approximately 40%.
I can’t imagine the nonsense that you’ll spew when the first large homebuilder gets acquired.
Anybody see Ben Stein whining on CNBC last night about how week Bernanke is but that it is good he finally stood up to the Hedge Funds, the speculators, yada yada yada. Like they are the reason stocks are in free fall. Has nothing to do with a recession. All a bunch of guys looking at computer screens manipulating it all. I guess those guys don’t work on days the market rises.
All disclaimers, anyone making investment decisions based on what is said on this blog has lost their mind.
# 77 http://www.stillmadeinusa.com/shoppingindex.html
I can vouch for Allen Edmonds shoes. Pricy but last forever, and they will refurbish them to new condition when they do start showing wear.
64 tosh
So true. The MSM sure does hate all the grims of the world, out there wrecking their memes and narratives. They don’t even go to the right c*cktail parties!
“68#, grim, the dismal last year was gone. ”
bi – which is it? Are homebuilders a leading indicator, or does the past not matter. You can choose one, but not both. If they’re a leading indicator of housing, then housing must follow the course that homebuilders have set, by falling the same 50%. If not, then you can’t claim they’re a leading indicator.
I hope that didn’t involve too many logical steps for you.
Rates have already dropped this morning – one of my online savings accounts and at a bank where I have a CD due for renewal in a couple of months.
This makes me feel poorer and less inclined to stimulate the economy :)
My question is: If they panic and drop rates now – over and over – what happens when they inevitably have to raise rates again to support the dollar?
70 kettle
I heard that on Bloomberg last night around 7pm and agree.
DJIA now just off 36.
bi [72],
When margin calls are initiated, your winners will suffer. Good trades, mediocre trades and idiotic trades are covered. The better of the best must be sold. What’s been better than short H-B’s? Didn’t the same occur in the panic this past August? At that time, you were spewing the same rhetoric. Just an observation.
grim Says:
January 23rd, 2008 at 9:05 am
I really wish the MBA would shift their methodology and report approvals, not applications.
Without any insight into how many applications are being approved/denied, and how many individuals are submitting multiple applications, we can’t determine anything from those numbers.
________________________________________________
Exactly. Since housing sales haven’t increased, it’s clear that all these applications aren’t resulting in increased approvals and actual purchases. Additionally, they note that a good proportion of these apps are for refis, not purchases–people still trying to tap the non-existent equity ATM before the well runs completely dry. Well, it looks like we’re there . . .
This is about 20 years too late:
http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2008/01/20080122-1.html
All disclaimers, anyone making investment decisions based on what is said on this blog has lost their mind.
I guess I’m out of my mind then grim.
“So, I would not be surprised to see a .75 reduction, in an attempt to show that Big Ben has a firm grip on things and is ready and willing to heat up the market.”
Ben is armed with a six-shot revolver. At this rate, come July 4th, he’ll be out of bullets at just about the time that everyone realizes that the summer’s almost over and the RE market in 2008 is even worse than 2007.
#86 – The speculators and hedge fund guys must be on their coffee break.
kettle
“But what is really made in the US anymore? ”
Debt.
And anyone who can demonstrate that they’ve purchased some debt that was made in the United States should get some cash from Uncle Sam.
Was that too hard?
“All disclaimers, anyone making investment decisions based on what is said on this blog has lost their mind.”
[JB],
Unless you own gold, for the long haul.
All disclaimers.
This is another good read:
http://assets.opencrs.com/rpts/RL34319_20080114.pdf
Has anyone else here gotten a breathy call from someone purporting to be from someone called Ben at the ” FED stimulus agency” offering to come over to stimulate you into a spending frenzy? I believe the exact phrase was “stiffen your resolve to spend.” Apparently it is an extra fee for getting one to “irrational exuberence.”
I questioned the legality of the offer but was told that it is not prostitution, and even the president approves.
I dunno.
“I can vouch for Allen Edmonds shoes.”
Down on the little street that runs past the south side of Trinity Church heading west from Broadway is a shoestore in the basement of a building on the south side of the street. In the window is a sign that says:
“We probably have the lowest prices in the city. Guaranteed!”
# 91 “Ben is armed with a six-shot revolver. At this rate, come July 4th, he’ll be out of bullets at just about the time that everyone realizes that the summer’s almost over and the RE market in 2008 is even worse than 2007.”
And then the fine folks at Pengloss Realtors will begin cheering “It is the best of all possible times to buy RE”
“And then the fine folks at Pengloss Realtors will begin cheering “It is the best of all possible times to buy RE””
And sell!
“HEHEHE Says:
January 23rd, 2008 at 10:22 am
#86 – The speculators and hedge fund guys must be on their coffee break.”
They’re back.
Ben is armed with a six-shot revolver
And the citizens will begin to wonder why milk is $7 a gallon. Perhaps they’ll come asking those questions armed with real revolvers?
I just heard that there may be $1 trillion in securitized credit card debt and there has been a surge in missed payments. Does this ring true to anyone here?
Bernanke doesn’t have answers. He’s throwing it out there in a panic and hoping the monster will go away. 75 bps in between scheduled meetings is a sure sign of fear. What’s he gonna do when the rate is at 1%? I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s sitting in the corner in a puddle of pee.
I totally agree with Grim’s #73 that a good stimulus would be to buy US made items.
On principle, I’ve been doing that as much as possible for at least the last 10 years – from food, furniture, toys, etc. And yes, it tends to be more expensive, but the quality has been very, very good. There are budget USA manufacturers, but some examples of classy and high quality USA made furniture: Pompanoosuc Mills, Copeland, Hitchcock. Classy wooden toys: Maple Landmark toys. There are even sites that specialize in USA made items. Nordstrom’s makes a practice of having a lot of USA made stuff (and Canadian made stuff).
If you avoid Walmart (where everything seems to be made in China), and focus on local stuff, esp.food – then it is possible to support the US manufacturers/farmers,etc. and still get good stuff.
Grim – #105 is awaiting moderation.
grim Says:
January 23rd, 2008 at 10:13 am
All disclaimers, anyone making investment decisions based on what is said on this blog has lost their mind.
grim: an important point, because some people here are clearly relying on the investment advice of others – they have stated as much
# 104 I bet the Ivy-lined walls of Princeton sounds pretty darned good right now.
There is no place like Nassau Street, there is no place like Nassau Street, there is no place like Nassau Street…..
Oh it was awful Anntie Emm….and you were there, and you were there, and you were there.
[107],
Yup, I agree.
88#, i would not think this time is the same as last August: the rally in homebuilders was simply due to short-covering. The mortgage rate is down over 1% and the application for mortgages has been increased 3 weeks in row. in addition, there are stimulus package and bail-out plan to be rolled out. I guess this spring will be an interesting selling season.
Ann #14: I am a boomer and I’m sick of hearing about the boomers.
The group of people born between 1946 and 1964 are as diverse a group in terms of cultural references and politics as any other group born during an eighteen-year period. The idea that there is some sort of “boomer culture” is ridiculous.
Contrary to popular belief, most of us don’t sit around talking about “the good old days.” First of all, they weren’t that good. We grew up afraid of nuclear annihilation and then we were afraid of our own government — or at least those of us who weren’t Republicans were. Quite frankly, if you ask any boomer what they think of some of the cultural detritus that has now found its way into TV commercials designed to play to our nostalgia, most of us are pretty damned insulted by it.
# 106 I know I am. I took the advice about putting everything into CDs.
I now have several thousand new ones in boxes in the library with spillover in the family room. My favorite two are the Led Zep and Black Sabbath boxed sets.
110 Jill
Good point. Also about the fact that the “boomers” are such a huge group of people, twenty year span of ages. Ay.
can’t beat that Zep boxed set with a stick
# 110 At least we have not yet gotten to the following”
“Hi, I’m Morgan Fairchild for Depends”
Or Ozzy, for Poly Grip:
“Do you know how @$##%#@ing hard it is to bite the head off a bat or other small mammal with dentures that slip?”
63 3b
Agreed, Ackerman, eh. I don’t know how big this house is, but it is new, and that is still appealing in many of these crumbling NNJ towns. But Ackerman, yeah, that’s a problem.
Unfortunately, I think many recent new home buyers are going to find out that new doesn’t always mean well built.
Too many of these partial teardowns were shabbily reconstructed using cheap materials. It’s easy to hide those sins behind some new drywall and fresh paint.
Sorry, I’m a critic of this new trend in Las Vegas style construction.
All facade, all fake, intended to impress, but don’t look behind the scenes, it’ll ruin the effect.
It should be interesting to see what happens to the world of consumer credit after the dust settles. Has their ever been a time in history when, unemployment at 4.6% saw so many defaults? Can economic models estimate the level of deficiencies that would arise should unemployment increase to 7.0%. How misvalued have assets become after an unprecedented 7 years of easy credit?
Re new, not always well-built, true
From a sales perspective, the teardown/rebuilds can still look better than when everything else you are seeing is old, decaying crap.
And the prior house that was torn down may not have been well-built either.
Overall, all of the teardowns/rebuilds we saw weren’t appealing. They’re often stuck on lots that are too small for the size of the new house, but were just right for the old house.
corzine is in Davos. anybody here think he
can lend a hand. Budgets, etc.
Unions,partners,brother-in-laws,money orders
“The mood of chief executives has darkened for the first time since 2003, according to a survey of corporate leaders released on the eve of the World Economic Forum”
“Samuel DiPiazza, chief executive of PwC, said the survey showed a sharp swing from a year ago, when it recorded its highest levels of confidence for five years. For the first time in the 11-year history of the survey, a downturn topped the list of concerns.”
“CEOs are hunkering down,” he said.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/0deb7086-c93b-11dc-9807-000077b07658.html
corzine is in Davos.
He’s laying the groundwork for his new position in the Clinton administration. If she gets elected, he is gone. Sorry Jersey, Washinton calls!
grim, #117
Also, building much bigger new houses over old foundations … because the property taxes can be lower.
Like putting on a new designer dress over old underwear :)
re: 103 shore
In prime credit, I was always told that reasons for default were limited to death, divorce and job loss. I think its fair to say that we may be adding another reason to that list soon.
I know the house on Ackerman and I am in the market in that area. While it may be affordable to some, it is not appealing to me. High taxes and at that price I can get something in a better location. Also, my recollection is that it is a one car garage. $819 for a busy street/one car garage and don’t forget taxes – Glen Rock Taxes! Hey Sellers get real. I may be out of touch but I wouldn’t pay 700K for it. So all you potential buyers out there don’t have to compete with me for it – go enjoy.
# 118 “All facade, all fake, intended to impress, but don’t look behind the scenes, it’ll ruin the effect”
I can’t remember where I heard (or read) the interview but I recently heard a builder talking about this issue. His focus was on the front of the house and the entry foyer. In a nutshell, he wanted people to go wow when they pulled up and wow when they walked in the door. If they did either of those things, they bought the house. If not, he did not get the sale. The quality of the workmanship, materials, yadda yadda, meant nothing in recent years.
ChiFI,my albani friend.
I don’t know smack about the markets nor do I pretend to. When someone makes a comment, a prediction and/or investment advice and I seem to agree with it or it makes sense. They why not look into it? Why not do the research?
Then if you still agre and have the hairy ones(which obviously you don’t), just pull the trigger as fast as you can and empty your rovolver. Heck make it sound like it’s a semi-automatic.
If it turns out true and you make out like a bandit then rememeber who opened your eyes to the idea and only take partial credit for your investment genious.
Now, CFC was purely a gut feeling that BOA will not allow CFC to go through bankruptsy court and air out Lewis’s dirty laundry. Plus the price was cheap. It made sense.
Let’s recoup,
I was wrong about spring 2007 RE rebound, I was right on US Dollar, Gold, CFC, recession, the jury is still out on my double digit inflation call.
So Mr. BlackJack,
Let me guess all your positions are at 52 week highs as well right?
This blog as a source of information is more powerfull and usefull that most people realize.
127 shore
someone posted that interview on this blog a few weeks ago
# 124 “Like putting on a new designer dress over old underwear”
Underwear? How 1990s.
I would never wear underwear under a new designer dress.
“Has their ever been a time in history when, unemployment at 4.6% saw so many defaults?”
mneer[119],
Excellent point. This bubble imploded on the back of its own weak foundation in the face of a vibrant economy. Now the charade that was fueled by the biggest debt/credit bubble in our history is ready to drive our economy into a major tailspin. There is nothing the fed can do about it. You can try to fight the market, however it’s a losing battle. The unwinding has to run its course. Very troubling for our economy going forward.
# 129. The knowledge just flows in via osmosis.
Disclaimer
The information on this site is provided for discussion purposes only. Under no circumstances does this information constitute a recommendation to buy or sell securities, assets, or otherwise.
That Ackerman house’s taxes have to be about 14K so with 20% down you can own it for about 5100/month plus insurance etc.
corzine would even remarry to get out of
NJ and into a gig in the clinton admin.
what do you think, amb. to england,kenya,
or japan?
Perhaps an early indication.. Credit cards could be the last to go as the minimum payment feature is unique in consumer debt
Fifth Third Sees Higher Charge-offs in Q4
Cincinnati-based card issuer Fifth Third Bancorp today reported 2007 earnings of $1.1 billion, down approximately 8% from 2006 earnings of $1.2 billion, the company reported Tuesday.
Fourth-quarter 2007 earnings were $38 million, down 42% from $66 million in the same period a year earlier.
Net charge-offs of credit card loans rose 50% from $10 million in the December quarter of 2006 to $15 million in the final 2007 quarter. The net charge-off ratio declined, however, from 4.07% of all card loans outstanding a year ago, to 3.91% at the end of 2007.
Net charge-offs of residential mortgage loans totaled $18 million, up 125% from $8 million a year earlier; home equity loan net charge-offs were $32 million, up 129% from $14 million; and automobile loan charge-offs increased 58% to $30 million from $19 million last year.
Grim, I don’t think a disclaimer is necessary. But while your at it why not add that historical performance is not an indication of future growth or earnings and objects in mirror may be closer than they appear.
The scary thing is that a disclaimer may be necessary for some. :)
#123 Grim…you are right on that! I have a friend that works for the state of NJ and noted there was a freeze on any new office space, moves furniture etc. Isin’t if funny that their office moved last year into a 10yr lease on building owned by corzine and hillary!!! it’s a fact.
Annualized charge offs are irrelevant, there is a lag anyway. Q1 and Q2 results will likely be quite a bit more ugly.
Target Card Charge-Offs, Delinquencies Rose in December
The Target Credit Card Master Trust held credit card receivables of $8.66 billion during the month of December 2007, about 26% more than the $6.88 billion held in the trust during December 2006, according to an SEC 8-K filing Tuesday by trust owner Target Receivables Corp.
Minneapolis-based mega-retailer Target Corp. announced last September that it would consider a sale of its credit card receivables but delayed a decision to the first quarter of 2008.
Net charge-offs of card accounts during December were $44.6 million, up 29% from $34.5 million in December 2006, a monthly performance summary of the trust shows. The annualized rate of charge-offs increased only 4 basis points, however, from 6.80% to 6.84% year over year.
The summary also breaks down cardholder delinquencies. Payments 60 days past due totaled $167.4 million in December, increasing 36% from $123.2 million a year earlier. Payments 90 days past due were $112.7 million, up 47% from $76.8 million a year ago. Payments more than 120 days past due were $223.9 million, up 37% from $163.9 million in December 2006.
A Chase telemarketer called last night pushing me to enroll in a new program that would eliminate the required minimum payment for two years.
I thought the timing was good, given all the chatter about rising card delinquencies.
How long will it take for Bergen County home prices to reflect the bursting of the bubble. Ackerman is a great example of what I said a few weeks ago – Bergen County prices are still going up. Granted the homes are not selling, but realtors get upset if you lowball and the homes sit on the market for over 100 days and counting. Many have relisted thier homes with the same agent at the same price after having no luck.
# 137, just so long as the coffee isnt too hot, lol.
A funny thing about the coffee scalding case. My wife used to work for a barrister who has since become a judge in London. Someone in the U.K. brought a claim against a retailer claiming that they wee injured by heat of the hot coffee. The judge, showing more common sense than the U.S. judicial system, ruled, if you can believe this that coffee is supposed to be hot. Striking a blow for common sense, he sent her packing.
How long will it take for Bergen County home prices to reflect the bursting of the bubble.
Asking prices or selling prices, they aren’t the same thing.
The coffee case is everybody’s favorite case. The award in the coffee case was lowered by the judge to a more reasonable amount. Also, my recollection is that the restaurant in question was aware that their coffee was “beyond hot” and had memos on it which included the sentiment that it would be cheaper to deal with a lawsuit than change out all the coffee pots/systems in the many restaurants. The verdict was the jury’s way of telling the restaurant that that decision was not the right one.
Both Grim.
jam,
Bergen’s prices are not still going up, not from what I see. List prices perhaps, but who cares about those. I just bought for 10% below 2005 peak prices. There are many people who aren’t real sellers out there though.
Buyinginbergen.com lists the week’s closing sales each week. I’m think you wrote once that you are looking. I still check Buyinginbergen site each week just to see the houses that I either looked at or was following on my listing reports, and you would be amazed at the prices they sell for versus OLP. Of course, I had to write the OLP down on paper because that isn’t on there! People who really want to sell, are still selling.
re credit card defaults:
I pay my bills in full every month, but it seems to me that the minimum payments really are minimal.
So why is the default rate rising so dramatically? People can’t even make those minimum payments?
Is there some point at which the minimums rise dramatically if someone has racked up a huge balance or missed a payment?
I know if you miss a payment, they can raise your rate dramatically on all of your cards to as much as 28% or 30%.
Jill Says:
January 23rd, 2008 at 10:52 am
Ann #14: I am a boomer and I’m sick of hearing about the boomers. The group of people born between 1946 and 1964 are as diverse a group in terms of cultural references and politics as any other group born during an eighteen-year period. The idea that there is some sort of “boomer culture” is ridiculous.
Jill: I think the clear stereotype of the “boomer” is someone obsessed with the ninth letter of the alphabet, and in turn, they have passed this value to their kids (Gen Y). In this vein, it is clear that there exists a common thread visible among the group. A good amount of it may be due to the pandering media and pop culture, as it has always been financially rewarding to target this group (and now their kids) due to the sheer volume of the opportunity.
Ann,
Did you complete the deal?
Bergen Ask/Sell spreads are huge. The real spread is obscured by relisting..
Here are a few listings off of the hot sheet this morning.
2 Bowers, Closter (relist)
Listed: 3/15/2007
Original List: $895,000
Sold: $750,000
124 Walsh, Dumont (relist)
Listed: 3/11/2007
Original List: $429,000
Sold: $360,000
231 Lyncrest, Englewood Cliffs (relist)
Listed: 3/1/2006
Original List: $1,690,000
Sold: $1,200,000
35-19 Stelton, Fair Lawn (relist)
Listed: 1/31/2007
Original List: $459,900
Sold: $360,000
572 Lucy, Teaneck (relist)
Listed: 5/1/2006
Original List: $549,000
Sold: $360,000
make money Says:
January 23rd, 2008 at 11:17 am
ChiFI,my albani friend. I don’t know smack about the markets nor do I pretend to. When someone makes a comment, a prediction and/or investment advice and I seem to agree with it or it makes sense. They why not look into it? Why not do the research?
albani: me no onions? ouch!
I was not chastising you at all. Seriously, don’t give it a second thought. I am more concerned about grim. If everyone signed an electronic waiver not to sue his a%% regardless of what happens, I couldn’t care less. We all know that there is no chance of that….and someday some whacked jerk like Donald the IRA is going to cause this website to be turned off, because of some ill-willed litigation….
Grim you have hit on it. You can’t get a clear picture of the Bergen County market by looking at the asking prices. To some extent the agents are to blame by taking on listings at absurd prices – it empowers homeowners and makes them resistant to large price drops (or lowballs which are really not lowballs but reasonable offers). Sellers are not looking at sold prices but at other “for sale prices.” Sooner but unfortunately most likely later, the burst has to hit the listing prices.
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Yep, last week actually! It went smoothly. As I mentioned before, the sellers were actually reasonable in the end about the repairs and gave us half of the amount in a credit. We had the repairs done this week and they went off without a hitch.
We move in next week, after we paint and put down some fresh carpet.
grim 151 moderated?
On a lighter note**
Because my oldest son is home sick from school today I was able to see that incredible piece of literary works known as Jacka## 2. What talent! What an fantastice ride on the emotion roller coaster! With a great old time musical ending! Has anyone here had that experience?? If you have’nt seen it, you really have no idea what your missing.
Clot?? how’bout you??
KL
(-:
#14 –
Ann Says:
“Ugh, the boomers. Not in reference to your post, but I am so tired about hearing about the boomers. : )
For example, Newsweek has turned into an honorary tribute the to boomers. Their music, how they changed the world, how they didn’t, where they should retire now, ugh.”
YES YES YES!!!!! I actually wrote a letter to Newsweek complaining about that interminable series, which of course their boomer editorial staff ignored in their inestimable boomer wisdom.
155 lisoosh
Isn’t it out of control! They should just change the name of it already to BoomerWeek!
I really wanted to cancel my subscription, but it puts me right to sleep in about five minutes every night. Sleep like that is well worth the 59 cents a week.
Consumer retrenchment?
“Starbucks (SBUX, news, msgs), the company that popularized the $4 cup of coffee, is testing a $1 cup and free refills of some of its offerings.”
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/Extra/StarbucksTestsOneDollarCupOfCoffee.aspx
151 jam
I’m convinced that some realtors, at least up here, simply price a house by sticking the listing into the hierarchy of already-listed houses. As long as it fits into the lineup, they think they priced it right.
“The coffee case is everybody’s favorite case. The award in the coffee case was lowered by the judge to a more reasonable amount. Also, my recollection is that the restaurant in question was aware that their coffee was “beyond hot” and had memos on it which included the sentiment that it would be cheaper to deal with a lawsuit than change out all the coffee pots/systems in the many restaurants. The verdict was the jury’s way of telling the restaurant that that decision was not the right one.”
Your recollection is correct. Also, the woman had to have major skin-grafting surgery over a period of two years. If you read the actual case, you’ll conclude that it came out the right way.
BC,
Chi posted that last night.
Starbucks dollar menu.
So much for Schultz’ consumer experience.
Automatic machines? Paper cups? Dollar Coffee? Egg McMuffin?
The transformation is complete.
re 147
“Here’s what could happen if you pay the average 2 percent minimum payment on a $10,000 credit card debt. At 18 percent interest, it will take you about 58 years to be rid of your debt. In that time, you will pay $28,930.64 in interest, according to a calculator at Bankrate.com that shows people the true cost of making minimum payments.”
In 06 I think legislation was passed to increase min payments so that more principal is paid off. This really isn’t in the interest of the credit card companies, however. They make their money from the revolvers not the convenience users. By forcing a troubled payer to pay more of a minimum you probably force them to default faster. Therefore they hit you with fees and jack up your rates.
[160] Thank you njpatient. Sometimes a little information to some can be a dangerous thing to many. I also think the final outcome of the case was justified.
[151] Ann that’s the problem. Slipping a new listing into a bunch of overpriced stale listings is doing nothing to get me out and about bidding. I suppose it is for some. Does anyone know how Bergen County sales are doing?
“Your recollection is correct. Also, the woman had to have major skin-grafting surgery over a period of two years. If you read the actual case, you’ll conclude that it came out the right way.”
I dunno. Who in their right mind puts hot liquid in a to go cup between their thighs as they go driving around town? We can’t protect everyone from their mistakes. Well, unless it is a multi-billion dollar mistake; then they are too big to be hurt.
151
Disclaimers can’t hurt, but I don’t think there’s much chance of a suit against grim that doesn’t result in someone owing him legal fees.
This may be the comment section in all of the intertubes with the least impropriety, other than when I forget to put a * in the word “c*cktail”.
jam,
FACT: Last year’s sales in Bergen County were the worst in the last 12 years.
Rich
Ann,
Congrats!
Bergen County Sold Data for SFH and Condo, Co-op & Twnhs
1996 8,185
1997 8,961
1998 9,759
1999 9,756
2000 9,193
2001 9,022
2002 9,862
2003 10,151
2004 10,684
2005 10,612
2006 8,631
2007 8,010
164 McD had a list of people who’d been injured and paid off out of court, along with the internal memo concluding that it would cost them less to continue injuring and paying people and that they should go on doing so. Really bad facts.
mneer,
Yes, I remember something about that legislation.
But to default on even the minimum payments you really have to be far gone – I would think.
[165] True, although our American system provides that each side pays it’s own legal fees. Of course if a prevailing party could convince a judge that the claim was frivolous and all the conditions precedents were met, legal fees MAY be awarded . . . but I wouldn’t hold my breath.
Rich, thanks – now if I could just find something to buy at a reasonable price.
Way off topic, but here is some more information on the coffee case.
http://www.caoc.com/CA/index.cfm?event=showPage&pg=facts
Basically, it came out at the trial that McD knew that it made coffee that was not fit for human consumption at the serving temperature but it didn’t care. It’s not in the link above, but I believe that the jury based its punitive damage award on an amount equal to one day of McD’s profit on its coffee sales.
With the DJIA down 235, here is a CNBC headline: Banks Help Stave off Stock Spiral.
If this is “staving off a spiral” we are in deep…..muck.
It looks like Chris Dodd is proposing creating an entity to buy outstanding mortgages.
I’ll post a link when I find one.
“It looks like Chris Dodd is proposing creating an entity to buy outstanding mortgages.”
I didn’t realize ol’ Chris was so wealthy!
Oh no, not the infamous coffee case!
I had to listen to my mother go on about that one for so long. She was so outraged that lady was silly enough to put a boiling cup of coffee between her legs.
I think they were both at fault.
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Thanks! Hope we like it there, we’ll be there for a while because we’ll never be able to sell it again : )
#175
i’d like to see that; i have about 180mm of pure garbage to sell him.
163
I used to enjoy the New and Updated Listings! updates on the reports my realtor would send me.
Oooh! “10K off on a 700k house!” Awesome!
I remember there was one update, “On Sale but just through Thanksgiving!”
I also enjoyed the relists where they put in a new picture of the front of the house from the OTHER side. Tricky, tricky.
Article in question, pretty sparse of details;
http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSWBT00822820080123
Cindy (35)-
“…there are plenty of intelligent people out there (check this board) who HAVE saved..and they should be rewarded.”
Cindy, this will never, ever happen. People of integrity and common sense will be taxed and looted until they arm themselves and rise up against their oppressors.
To borrow from a popular movie…there will be blood. It may take 2-3 more generations, but this mess is on a straight track toward an all-out civil war/revolution.
The pain is nowhere near enough to stimulate real action yet. Too bad.
Tosh,
Let me get this straight, Dodd is suggesting we resume operations at the Resolution Trust Corp?
183 – It appears so, and so early into this mess as well!
Can’t wait to see what sort of pandering we’ll get later in the election cycle.
What happened to the 4 Horseman?
From nj.com:
State seeks $2.5 billion for school construction
Lawyers for the state have proposed borrowing at least an additional $2.5 billion to resume school construction in the state’s poorest districts.
I dunno? They changed it to a lone gunslinger named Clotpoll?
what follows in an uneducated opionion…
if you look at this chart of the DJIA
http://finance.google.com/finance?q=INDEXDJX:.DJI
It seems to show characteristics similar to the charts of the housing runup. This is a very simplified observation, but would a big drop be so surprising after such a run-up with very little to actually support such a run up besides consumer debt
grim (79)-
Ban bi’s idiotic predictions.
BC (185)-
“What happened to the 4 Horseman?”
Their stable got foreclosed.
RTC…now those were some stupendous, fat consulting fees. Licking my chops.
(Just kidding, I will do everything I can to avoid another series of years doing rework, over and over, because it generates billing.)
185?
Lost everything in the market and ate the horses?
BC (88)-
It might be easier to explain margin and short-covering to a bug.
189#, clot, even idiot can understand the difference:
http://finance.yahoo.com/charts#chart5:symbol=xhb;range=5d;compare=spy;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;logscale=on;source=undefined
#152 jam: Sooner but unfortunately most likely later, the burst has to hit the listing prices.
I think you will the big asking price declines come March/April
ChiFi (107)-
“…grim: an important point, because some people here are clearly relying on the investment advice of others – they have stated as much…”
Hey, I’m overperforming right now.
Only down 2.7% in ’08!
BC Bob Says:
January 23rd, 2008 at 1:02 pm
What happened to the 4 Horseman?
They got sent to Sleepy Hollow!
You know there is trouble when the good stuff is getting whacked. People have to free up cash to cover the losers.
Article on law layoffs:
http://www.observer.com/2008/will-work-dinner-nobu?page=0%2C1
“IT’S TOUGH. PEOPLE are scared,” the jettisoned Cadwalader associate said. “It’s so rare that this happens. The first-years are freaked out. People are wondering: Is this continuing on a rolling basis, or did they take one big hit? People worry about [the impact on] recruiting efforts, both on a lateral basis and for incoming law students.”
mark (135)-
“what do you think, amb. to england,kenya,
or japan?”
How about Antarctica?
F-ing penguin.
look alike the f our horsemen got into wall St….
http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.jtrue.com/cartoons/art/low/4horsemen.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.jtrue.com/cartoons/54.html&h=432&w=576&sz=18&hl=en&start=47&um=1&tbnid=YThPGArEuDWd0M:&tbnh=101&tbnw=134&prev=/images%3Fq%3D4%2Bhorse%2Bmen%26start%3D40%26ndsp%3D20%26svnum%3D10%26um%3D1%26hl%3Den%26client%3Dfirefox-a%26rls%3Dorg.mozilla:en-US:official%26sa%3DN
#131 BC Bob # unemployment at 4.6% saw so many defaults?”
That of course assume that 4.6 rate is really accurate,a nd if course it deos not reflect the under employed.
Clotpoll Says:
January 23rd, 2008 at 1:15 pm
ChiFi (107)- Hey, I’m overperforming right now.
Only down 2.7% in ‘08!
clot: if you are primary equity long, that is a trick…..
Throw in caveats regarding participation rate as well.
question…
what would be the best way to short airlines, generally speaking??
hypothetically of course
kl (155)-
Is that the Jacka$$ movie where the guy has a lobster claw his ni%%les?
Good times.
#104 gary: I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s sitting in the corner in a puddle of pee.
No I saw him yesterday in CVS buying 2 packages of Depends.
ChiFi (202)-
Overweight gold miners.
#98 njpatient; I buy all my shoes there, because they have hard to find widths, plus their buy one get on at half is always a good deal.
BC-
“Starbucks (SBUX, news, msgs), the company that popularized the $4 cup of coffee, is testing a $1 cup and free refills of some of its offerings.”
I don’t want free refills of stuff that tastes like shit, served by some androgynous Gen Y with a nose full of hardware.
kettle1 Says:
January 23rd, 2008 at 1:27 pm
question…what would be the best way to short airlines, generally speaking?? hypothetically of course
ket: go long oil :)
181.Clotpoll Says:
January 23rd, 2008 at 12:56 pm
Cindy (35)-
“…there are plenty of intelligent people out there (check this board) who HAVE saved..and they should be rewarded.”
Cindy, this will never, ever happen. People of integrity and common sense will be taxed and looted until they arm themselves and rise up against their oppressors.
I use silver rather than lead in my bullets, because the Economic Terrorists have no reflection in the mirror, and lead doesn’t work on them.
Confused-
Better stock up on wooden stakes and garlic, too.
“Better stock up on wooden stakes and garlic, too.”
Shallots and white wine too.
212.Clotpoll Says:
January 23rd, 2008 at 1:39 pm
Confused-
Better stock up on wooden stakes and garlic, too.
I use a Crossbow for that, with oak shaft & siver arrow heads, impregnated with Garlic. Can’t be too carefull. As you get older Crossbow is easier then Compound Bow.
25, basis points, do I hear 25 basis points? 25 basis points to the FED. Do I hear 50, who will give me 50? 50 to the Fed. C’mon 75, who will give me 75? 75, 75? 75 to the Fed.
Now that the market is going to have a hissy fit if they dont get 75, I wonder if we will now get a 1% drop.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/22804604
Forget a half-point cut. Wall Street is now speculating that the Federal Reserve will lower rates another three-quarters of a point next week.
The reason: the continued selloff in the stock market and a slide in bond yields, suggesting the Fed’s work was far from over.
February fed funds futures now suggest an 81% chance that the Fed will cut its target for overnight rates to 2.75% from 3.5% at its policy-setting meeting on Jan. 30. The odds of a half-point cut rose to 122%
[snip]
# 214 “I use a Crossbow for that”
How very William Tell.
Ann #157: I don’t get what Newsweek is doing either. I lived it, I don’t need to live it again.
Bush Legacy;
But a revenue bubble burst, a recession and the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks adversely affected the books. Several rounds of tax cuts, including Bush’s signature $1.35 trillion 2001 tax cut, also contributed to the return to deficits in 2002 after four years of budget surpluses. The national debt has risen to $9.2 trillion.
“All disclaimers, anyone making investment decisions based on what is said on this blog has lost their mind.”
Good day to take a bite of the AAPL.
From the AP:
MGIC Shares Plunge With Rising Payouts
Shares of MGIC Investment Corp. plummeted more than 30 percent Wednesday, striking a 15-year low, after the nation’s largest mortgage insurance company said paid losses could reach $2 billion this year.
The Milwaukee-based company had said payouts could be as high as $1.5 billion in 2008, but raised that to a range of $1.8 billion to $2 billion late Tuesday citing fresh delinquencies and growing claim sizes.
“Billionaire George Soros called Wednesday for a massive injection of regulation and oversight over financial markets whose excessive freedoms have caused “not a normal crisis but the end of an era.”
“Authorities ought to go in and examine the books” of financial institutions, Soros said and provide assurance “they will rescue and even take over banks that become insolvent.”
“It became a free-for-all,” Soros said. “Credit extension went so far that I don’t think it can go any further.” One unhealthy result: “The appreciation of houses replaced traditional savings.
“Things are now coming how to roost,” he said.
Soros predicted a realignment of power and wealth as “recession in the developed world” would be met by a “countertrend in the developing world.”
http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?StoryId=ba402b10-bd8e-4227-97b1-88089670ef4e
221. Soros is being polite in condeming the “Economic Treason” which has occurred.
bi,
RE: 194
Since you mentioned your stock strategy was far from day trading and were in it for the long haul AND that you’ve been pro home builders since August.. well, this just has got to sting.
6 Month Chart
Unless you sold and are getting back in now, but how come I never saw a recommendation from you to sell homebuilders? You know, before this hugh jump in home builder stocks.
New headline “Nasdaq in Bear Market as Stocks Plunge”
http://www.cnbc.com/id/22798008
The first bear of spring has arrived early.
Looks like things are snapping back a little. The Hedge Fund guys and Speculators must be on a bathroom break.
RE: 223
6 Month Chart
Starbucks is just preparing for their expansion into Jersey City:
http://www.nj.com/news/jjournal/index.ssf?/base/news-5/1200899411163030.xml&coll=3
hoo-hah…CNBC
Forget a half-point cut. Wall Street is now speculating that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates another three-quarters of a point next week.
The reason: the continued selloff in the stock market and a slide in bond yields, suggesting the Fed’s work was far from over.
February fed funds futures now suggest an 81% chance that the Fed will cut its target for overnight rates to 2.75% from 3.5% at its policy-setting meeting on Jan. 30.
Late Tuesday, the futures were pricing in a 90% chance of a half-point cut and a 60% chance of a three-quarter point cut next week.
re. Starbucks:
I understand the desire to sell $1 coffee to protect their economic flank. But, once people start going there for $1 coffee, why would they spend $4.50 for it?
The DOW goes green….
In a dilemma,
Wife has $40K+ down payment assistance pkg from new employer. Expires March.
Looking in Linden, Clark etc $325-395K.
Don’t know if the $40K would be enough buffer for further price down slide. Or should let it expire and keep renting.
Any purchase would be for longer term. Obviously not flip.
Also, for the RE Pro’s how seriously are List -10% offers taken these days at the aforementioned price levels?
Thanks
Quandry (231)-
I’d be tempted to spend free money from somebody else.
If the listing price is stupid, a 10% lowball can certainly work. On the other hand, if the house is priced competitively, it won’t. Every house is different.
“Shore Guy Says:
January 23rd, 2008 at 2:27 pm
re. Starbucks:
I understand the desire to sell $1 coffee to protect their economic flank. But, once people start going there for $1 coffee, why would they spend $4.50 for it?”
They also mentioned experimenting with free refills.
“chicagofinance Says:
January 23rd, 2008 at 2:30 pm
The DOW goes green….”
Those hedge fund guys and speculators need to finish that bathroom break, wash up and get back to ruining this stock market.
Quandry,
Can you match that 40?
if posted eralier sory !!!
HONG KONG (MarketWatch) — Merrill Lynch forecasts nationwide U.S. home prices could decline 25% to 30% over the next three years, as new supply and weak demand weigh on the market. “This sounds dire… but would only reverse part of the unprecedented 130% price surge from 2000 to 2006,” wrote economist David Rosenberg in a research note released Wednesday. Rosenberg added the S&P 500 may decline an additional 20% to 25% to breach the 1,100-point level if the market follows historical precedents at times when the U.S. economy is in recession
grim,
If you ever do another “price reduced” run, I could give you several houses in Iselin that have been in the MLS for a while with substantial reductions. Started above 400 – maybe 420 to 440 – now down to low 300’s, high 200’s.
It would take someone with access to the Middlesex MLS to confirm what I remember of their original asking prices since these have been floating around for a while.
I also know of one newly built house. I’m pretty sure the OLP was $649,000. It’s now $595,555.
I wanted to cancel my subscription to Newsweek as well after their interminable boomer series. Wife wanted to keep it because the articles are good for her students. The writing is perfect for children and senile adults.
Skep,
Your wife’s senile? You lucky bastard!
Counter Party! 2/9, Morristown, 6pm, Grasshopper
Bond insurer counterparties meet with regulators in New York
(232) Thanks. I’m tempted.
(235) grim,
Not today, in a year at our current rate, yes we could match. Why?
(233)
Free refills, with a $10 bathroom charge.
PPT at work?
#243 – Strong rumors of a 50bps to 75bps cut next week.
[231] Yes, it does depend on whether the asking price is realistic, but even if it is not, don’t think that the seller’s will look at your 90% offer as “fair”. Most likely your realtor will be told by the selling agent “oh no, this house is going for much higher, if your buyers want to be serious tell them to come back higher.”
Just be aware that we are still in a stage where someone will come out of the woodwork and buy that damn house for 97% of asking thinking they got a deal.
I posted this on December 10 2007. The realtor.com link is now dead. Is there any way to find out if this closed or got pulled/expired? I have no data other than the fact that it is in Pway, somewhere in the development called Birch Glen, is a 3 bedroom townhouse and was listed for 465k.
Here’s an example of an unrealistic seller. This townhouse is in my neighborhood, market price for these units are no more than mid 300s at the moment. Asking price is 465k.
Why not ask for it? Someone might pay.
http://homes.realtor.com/realestate/piscataway-nj-08854-1084537859/
ps. the pic with the pool is a fake.
Grim,
Comment date/time January 23rd, 2008 at 3:27 pm is awaiting moderation.
75 bps will leave little powder for the next fed meeting. What happens when there is nothing left to lower?
Sorry, was there a problem with the post Grim re: [246]????
any opinions on TD ameritrade??
jam (245)-
Nope. That stage is over. There aren’t any buyers remaining “in the woodwork”. The phones ring in my office every time we convince a seller to get his house in line with reality. As soon as it happens, we get a nice little rush, an offer, an acceptance…then, silence again, as we wait for our next seller to capitulate.
The rest of our phone work is outgoing. Outgoing to lenders, arranging short sales, that is.
Ruthless fundamentals now rule. Price isn’t the same as value, but if the price doesn’t reflect value, houses will sit unsold.
Dow up 200? Whaaaaaat?
jam (247)-
We all turn Japanese?
“75 bps will leave little powder for the next fed meeting. What happens when there is nothing left to lower?”
As I said earlier, it’s awfully early for BB to empty his six-shooter.
Ben should go to zero. That should bolster confidence that all is well. Puff the magic Dragon.
Looks like we have a bailout for the bond insurers.
[250] I guess I’ll keep looking for that price change in Bergen. I low balled a couple of times and the seller’s used it to my disadvantage by holding “one more open house”. Those attending the open house were encouraged to make any offer – of course at least one was higher than mine.
Speaking of BoomerWeek, I mean Newsweek, Rutgers got a nice mention in an article this week…
At some colleges the bumper crop of applications is causing crowd-control problems. For years Rutgers University has run a private bus to ferry prospective students and their parents around its sprawling New Brunswick, N.J., campus. But in the last five years, as the number of applicants has jumped from 26,000 to 43,000, there’s no more room on the bus. By the first week in September parents had already reserved most of the spots through December. The university is looking at building a massive new visitors center to handle the overflow.
http://www.newsweek.com/id/83159/output/print
#240 Grim,
6PM? Are people intending to eat there as well?
[246]???????
231 Quandry
40K is a lot of cash. I would want to at least try as long as you find something you would be happy to live in for a long time.
We just bought at a 2004 comp (10% off of list). Percentages don’t really mean much in terms of offers right now IMO because pricing is so crazy. I don’t know if it’s gone lower since, but from the data I was following, a 2004 comp seems fair right now.
(245) Thanks jam
Hate to bring the board level from Milton Friedman to Milton Berle, but I see a lot of houses in the mid-300’s on the market (Linden, Clark)that were bought almost exactly two years ago. Is this a sign of duress? Mortgage reset victims?
What would be a reasonable offer strategy based on the 2004 purchase price?
Thanks for patience.
My new favorite trick is to have the buyer’s agent present offers to my sellers in person.
If the offer is workable, nobody leaves until the deal gets done.
If the offer is stupid (there are an amazing amount of completely unqualified buyers out there who- for some reason- believe they can purchase), my seller gets mad at the other agent, not me.
A couple of my newer agents think this is some sort of new technique. Har! This is the way all deals used to happen.
Plus ca change…
Sorry, 2006 purchase price.
233 Hehehe
Free refills at Starbucks? People will be so shaky and anxious from the excessive caffeine in that stuff they won’t be able to drive home.
[261] I would make an offer you can comfortably afford and submit it with the reason behind your bid – other comps – needed upgrades etc. The time has come for buyers to demand something for their money when buying a home rather than a promise of increased easy equity which we all now know is illusory.
jam (256)-
That’s not to your disadvantage if nobody beats your offer.
262 clot
Sounds like what the bankers do to the lawyers and executives when we’ve got a tenuous merger on our hands.
[266] I know, but someone always seems to beat it. I’ve only done it twice though.
But, once people start going there for $1 coffee, why would they spend $4.50 for it?
Dunkin Donuts=$2
Starbucks=$2.20
Bi-like hyperbole=priceless
268 – why would you leave your offer on the table? Sunset it. Then they can’t shop it, and they will still call you back when sanity arrives in any event.
263
2006 purchase price? Take at least 10% off.
[262] I would like to do it that way. My offers, while “low” are in line with 2004 and come with almost 30% down. I always am concerned that the sellers are not getting the full understanding of my bid.
Quandary (261)-
Get the idea of a blanket, “percentage” strategy out of your head. You’ve got to make yourself a short list and evaluate each house on its own merits and how it’s priced & presented.
(260) Ann, thanks. should of refreshed before posting followup.
262 jam
Just curious, for the offers you already put in (and I assume were rejected), what % off current LP were they?
[268] my realtor refused to sunset it on the past two occasions. This last time I told her if she won’t present it my way, adios.
[275] 10% on one and 8% on another.
jam (265)-
Please do not encourage other buyers to horse trade.
You kill with kindness.
[278] sorry Clot
jam (268)-
Then, your offers were too low. In this market, when I have a strong offer, I invite the seller to try and use it as a stalking horse.
jam (272)-
“I always am concerned that the sellers are not getting the full understanding of my bid.”
Your biggest concern should be that they are.
#256
Screw them. If they don’t get any takers and come back to you, bid even lower.
sybarite (282)-
Jam is trying to buy a house, not fail.
261
I don’t think offering your reasons why the offer is the offer is a good idea. We did that, and the sellers via the agents just argued with us (it needs all new flooring! the flooring is fine!). The phone calls went on for days back and forth, trying to get us to come up, telling us it was in move-in condition, us saying it was a fixer-upper. We just wasted everyone’s time.
On the one we finally bought, we just put the offer down, didn’t give any reasons, even to our agent and just said that’s our number, we’re not going higher, take it or leave it.
“Dow up 200? Whaaaaaat?”
yeah, looks like it’s not the end of the world after all.
(284)
Nice thing about the POS Capes we are looking at is that they are now commodities and can be shopped as such. (So far.)
#231
i agree, i say go for the throat. the only thing against you is time. sellers will first be insulted but most likely come back to you; hopefully before march. start now and begin at 2002 price. hopefully you’ll still be in the house past 2013.
(287)
Hopefully the next move will be Florida or Beverly National
lol
Some things old become new again.
“U.S. lawmakers are proposing 1930s- style investments to boost the economy, including public works projects and reviving a New Deal agency to stop housing foreclosures.”
“Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, a Nevada Democrat, today called for a long-term stimulus plan to build roads, utilities, schools and housing. Representative Mark Kirk, an Illinois Republican, and Senator Christopher Dodd, a Connecticut Democrat, urged re-creating a federal agency to help homeowners refinance.”
“The proposals are reminiscent of the approach President Franklin Delano Roosevelt took to get the nation through the Great Depression.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aBuRG30gENq4&refer=home
So banks that have a CDOs/MBS’ guaranteed by bond insurers are now going to kick in money to bail out the bond insurers?
“So banks that have a CDOs/MBS’ guaranteed by bond insurers are now going to kick in money to bail out the bond insurers?”
Sounds like it. Kinda like keeping the Titanic affloat by bailing water from the engine room into the ship’s pool.
I guess they couldn’t find somebody at a sovereign wealth fund who would think this would be a good investment idea?
So banks that have a CDOs/MBS’ guaranteed by bond insurers are now going to kick in money to bail out the bond insurers?
Yes.
How can the worst performing sector(financials) led a 300 point rally?
will Ben cut another 3/4 next week?
and further, it seems to me that any bank that would actually do this must be in VERY bad shape (i.e., it costs less to bail out the insurer than it would cost to put crap CDOs/MBS on their books).
WPA!
This economy REALLY is f’d up!
286 Quandry
Hey, even a POS cape can be a very nice home in the end : ) Some capes are actually a very nice size on the inside, even if the outside looks small.
They are be shopped like commodities, but they are still someone’s home, where they raised their kids, blah blah blah and believe me, everyone thinks their POS cape/ranch/bilevel/split level/McMansion is the bee’s knees.
That’s why I think the less you say about it the offers when you make them, the better!
“So banks that have a CDOs/MBS’ guaranteed by bond insurers are now going to kick in money to bail out the bond insurers?”
Banker’s Bankruptcy Fund.
At what point does joe six pack realize the emperor has no clothes? I feel like I am in Argentina.
Clot,
Given the “amazing amount of completely unqualified buyers out there”, is there a quantifiable premium on qualified buyers not encumbered with having to sell their house first?
In other words, if I walked into one of your listings with slam-dunk financials (down payment, 800+ FICO) not encumbered with a contingency that I need to sell first; (i.e. accept my offer and the deal is done), would you encourage your seller to accept a more aggressive offer? Do most sellers see value in this?
298
Don’t get me wrong. Capes are mint in my book. I rent one now and am fond of it. Owner still wants over 450k for it, won’t sell. Rent for 17, hate to leave.
Most houses that we are interested, have less than 5 years prior ownership. Make that all. Hard for my bitter renter self to get emotional for owners.
Did this feel like a massive short-covering on the financials, and it basically dragged every else along for the ride?
I think there was an en masse realization “don’t fight the Fed”….
Just a blind guess…..
Chicagofinance,
Yes. US REITs up 9% today – best day ever. They’ve been trading like financials recently.
#298 The POS Cape is legend on this board. But just for clarification the POS label comes not form the fact that it is a cape, but it is a cape that has not been touched on 40 or more years, and the seller thinks its worth 500k.
The POS comes form the condition vs the price, not the fact that the style is a cape.
#285 yeah, looks like it’s not the end of the world after all.
Yep there is always tomorrow.
Gimme More Gimme More!!!! Cheap money! Load me up Ben.
Chi,
That or the hedge fund guys and speculators took the late afternoon off.
#268 jam:I know, but someone always seems to beat it.
Or so you are told.
Grim or anyone…
Can I get the address of MLS 2743138.
Thanx.
Tan
#245 jam: not in my area of Bergen Co.
305
Gotcha. I met many a POS on my travels. There are POS of every style, capes, ranches, bilevels, split-levels, and the splanch.
#262 clot: what kind of unqualified buyers are you seeing ou ther, no down pymt, low credit score, some of both?
223#, if you remember what i said in august, i was recommending long homebuilders and short lenders; long gold and short oil; long pharms. go figure.
303 chi
agreed
gotta love a muscular interventionist government!
My first….and current house….was a classic fixer upper….won’t do it again.
# 247 jam Says:
January 23rd, 2008 at 3:28 pm
75 bps will leave little powder for the next fed meeting. What happens when there is nothing left to lower?”
Humm……Big Ben does a pole dance and collects money to rebate to tax payers?
Rent (301)-
Yes to all your queries.
Give it a shot, let me know what you think:
http://jamesbednar.net/forums/
I’m a little old-school, but I think something more real-time (like IRC or a shoutbox) would be awesome on this site. You’d loose some archiving capability (which, of course, could be fixed) but I think it would add a lot of value.
That being said, I think a commenting system like this one is better than a forum. This is all, of course, my $.02 :)
Knew Fed would ride to rescue. Damm it I was in meetings today and could not buy whey it was down 200 points. Bright side my bank stocks rallied. Did anyone get in this morning?
I need to find a way to keep certain discussions well organized, but others freeform, without negatively impacting the dynamic of the site…
Easier said than done.
319 Eh. Didn’t wow me, actually.
I’m really just looking for an easy-to-use forum
#322 grim
I hear ya, that’s the challenge of any site such as this. If you figure out a solution than you’re a genius :)
I think something like the current system for on-topic discussions, and something like a shoutbox or IRC channel for misc. conversations, simple MLS queries, etc. would be a nice balance.
314
no more writedowns
$40 oil
326 The problem is it is olive oil, ant it is the price per gallon.
WOWOWOWOWOWOWOWOW what is this VEGAS?
I go to an all day meeting, dow down 200 last I check get back to my desk it is way up. So I check my 401K and it closed up $100,000 what the heck!
CRAP, it is only up $10,000 today, I messed up still good but damm I thought I had $100,000 for a few seconds.
321…get in? I am just waiting for the stuff we own to get over the beating it took for the last 10 days….this market blows.
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/01/23/bush.iraq/
Excuse me if I tend to look at whatever statements the Administration makes about the economy with a bit of skepticism.
John,
No it was up $100,000. The $90k is just a downpayment on the cost of cleaning up the Wall Street mess.
Big Ben thanks you.
Give this one a shot:
http://jamesbednar.net/Vanilla/
So let me get this stright, the banks that are being bailed out by the foreigners, are now going to use that bailout money to bail out the bond insurance companies.
Sovereign Bancorp posts $1.6 billion loss
5:38 p.m. 01/23/2008 Provided by
By Jonathan Stempel
NEW YORK (Reuters) – Sovereign Bancorp Inc (SOV), the second-largest U.S. savings and loan, on Wednesday posted a $1.6 billion quarterly loss and canceled its dividend following a larger-than-expected write-down for consumer credit losses and a 2006 bank acquisition.
The fourth-quarter net loss equaled $3.34 per share, and compared with a loss of $129 million, or 28 cents per share, a year earlier.
Operating profit, excluding charges, fell 44 percent to $94 million, or 18 cents per share, from $167 million, or 33 cents, a year earlier, Philadelphia-based Sovereign said.
Analysts on average expected profit of 16 cents per share, according to Reuters Estimates. Forecasts by analysts typically exclude one-time items.
Sovereign canceled its 8 cents per share quarterly dividend “to help bolster capital and mitigate risk during the ongoing challenges in the financial services industry,” Chief Executive Joseph Campanelli said in a statement. It expects to pay a dividend once “industry conditions normalize,” he said.
Sovereign wrote down $1.58 billion of goodwill, or $3.08 per share, which was $180 million more than it estimated on January 14. It attributed the increase to interest-rate changes that affected its consumer and New York-area operations.
bbpress is nicer IMHO
grim,
Just registered but did not receive my password yet. I am thinking message boards are good as an organizational tool but I find it a lot more difficult to get through when the number of topics gets unruly. Very difficult to catch up with posts/responses. Is there some way to limit the number of topics (say just recos for food etc, mls inquiries); and allowing only you to start a new thread?
my 2 cents/1 cent
afe
Also, grim, if your concern is load on the site (which I understand completely), using something like IRC helps quite a bit because you’re pushing the load onto the clients.
A sure sign of inflation?
“War funding, which averaged about $93 billion a year from 2003 through 2005, rose to $120 billion in 2006 and $171 billion in 2007 and President George W. Bush has asked for $193 billion in 2008, the nonpartisan office wrote.”
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080123/ts_nm/iraq_usa_spending_dc
Info you can’t do withoutn ….The Market Braces for the Boomers….http://finance.yahoo.com/focus-retirement/article/104263/The-Market-Braces-for-the-Boomers?mod=retirement-preparation
290.BC Bob Says:
January 23rd, 2008 at 4:07 pm
Some things old become new again.
“The proposals are reminiscent of the approach President Franklin Delano Roosevelt took to get the nation through the Great Depression
FDR’s final step that worked, was WWII. WWIII?
333, etc.
I am coming to the conclusion that the canned solutions don’t get it.
clot/renting in NJ – didn’t work for me. I have all those credentials (great FICO, 20% down, pre-approved letter for mortgage and no need to sell primary house) FSBO wanted 560K I offered $540 he didn’t accept. This was Dec. 30th, he now has it listed with a realtor for $579. Go figure. House has been for sale since May of ’07.
3b (313)-
Just the way you mention it. Walking around with pre-approval letters from last Summer.
wifey (343)-
Unfortunately, you can’t cure a seller’s case of the stupids.
Keep an eye on that place. The eventual train wreck could become an opportunity for you.
clotpoll – my pre-approval is always current..
Oh nooooo.. please not another forum, if you keep this format I promise not to talk about anymore Jacka## movies (-‘
KL
Since Ben will always throw me a life vest (as well as all of my global friends), my confidence in Wall Street is restored.
If only he’d fix appl tomorrow.
I kinda have the same opinion as KL at 347
#347
I tend to agree; I just keep the main thread open in my browser and continuously hit F5 all day long. Moving it to a forum would force me to use my mouse! Don’t know if I can handle that…
For the MLS lookups, there could be a running thread for those posts linked to at the top, by the “Home” and “Contact” links.
Could somebody find address and listing history for MLS# 2461115 ???
Please?
Maybe have:
a daily Open Thread to talk about whatever you want
a daily Real Estate thread to talk about local RE, MLS lookups, comp killers, people’s personal experiences etc.
and another daily thread for financial market topics?
Re: 333
Looked at it and I like the current one.
#347 Me too.
grim
Like the ‘tab’ approach. I like the free form but at times only interested in seeing
News (content you post about the RE market/economy)
Comp Killers( and other facts about the RE market which in my opinion makes this site unique)
RE Commentary
General RE discussion
#351
770 ROUTE 202
Bridgewater, NJ
Originally lised as 2377943
LD 2/22/07
OLP $420,000
Reduced 319,900
Taxes $6048
DOM 234 – Expired
Also listed as Multi-family
LD: 04/14/07
OLP: $399,000
LP: $319,900
DOM: 210
Withdrawn 11/12/07
Relisted as single family:
LD 11/12/07
OLP $279,900
DOM 72
Taxes $5857
I drive by this house every day to and from work. It is immediately adjacent to the train tracks. Clot probably also recognizes this place.
I also don’t believe the taxes went down from his initial listing to the latest listing…
Thanks – I can not believe it was oroginally listed at 420K ….
#357
It’s even actually listed as a “fixer-upper” too.
33% drop from it’s OLP.
Depending on how much work it needs, could be nice rental property if seller is motivated enough.
Anyone have history on MLS 2473836? Thanks.
#363
1490 ROUTE 22
Mountainside, NJ
Sold: 12/15/04
OLP: 1.1 M
SP: 1.5 M
DOM 19
LD: 06/28/07
OLP: 3.5 M
LP: 3.2 M
DOM 183
Withdrawn 12/13/07
LD: 1/11/2008
OLP: $2,499,000
DOM 12
Taxes: $17626
#365 Thanks Sybarite. It looks sort of run down from the highway. And I thought the current LP was nuts….
The current LP IS nuts.
I thought Reech would have come over and proclaimed how he bought this REIT when the market was down 300.
Did some posts just vanish?
I’m going to try to see if I can keep the discussions a bit more on-topic.
Too much valuable information gets lost in the mix here.
syb (360)-
Not in front of my database to confirm, but that 202 property may be REO.