From the Wall Street Journal:
Americans Delay Retirement As Housing, Stocks Swoon
Nest Eggs Shrink, Deferring Dreams; ‘Freaked Out’ Elite
By JENNIFER LEVITZ
April 1, 2008
As the falling real-estate and stock markets erode their savings, many aging Americans are delaying retirement, electing labor over leisure in uncertain times.
A three-decade veteran at International Business Machines Corp., Dick Boice had planned to sell his house, pack up and move to Arizona with his wife, Lauren, to take early retirement. But two months after the January date he set to exit the work world, Mr. Boice, who is 59 years old, is still on the job. He figures he’ll stay put for another couple of years.
The Boices had counted on proceeds from the house sale to boost their retirement income. After a year on the market, the roomy colonial in Blue Springs, Mo., didn’t move, forcing the couple to cut the asking price by $40,000 to around $250,000. The house remains unsold. Meanwhile, Mr. Boice has watched the value of his 401(k) and individual retirement accounts fall by roughly 20% so far this year, to a combined $240,000.
“Everything is just heading south,” says Mr. Boice, who works in client support for IBM in Kansas City, Mo. “You can’t hardly make any kinds of plans because you don’t know what you can count on.”
…
Mr. Boice has plenty of graying company at the grindstone. Millions of retirement-age Americans, stung by the recent economic pall, suddenly are having to reassess their plans — with many forced to quickly change course. In February, the proportion of people ages 55 to 64 in the work force rose to 64.8%, up 1.5 percentage points from last April. That translates to more than an additional million people in the job pool, according to the U.S. Labor Department. The ranks of those 65 and over in the work force rose to 16.2% from 16% in the same time span — meaning 212,000 more hands on deck. So far, the numbers for March continue to show a “sharp” increase, says Steve Hipple, a department economist.
…
According to economists and demographers, a huge exodus from the work force should be happening. The first of 78 million baby boomers, those born between 1946 and 1964, passed the 60-year-old mark two years ago. And 2008 was expected to be a banner retirement year, with the oldest boomers reaching 62 — the earliest age for collecting Social Security. When the first boomer drew a benefit on Feb. 12, the Social Security Administration described it as the start of “America’s silver tsunami.”
From MarketWatch:
UBS plans $19 bln write-down, capital injection
Swiss banking giant UBS on Tuesday revealed a further $19 billion hit from the credit crisis, doubling its write-downs so far, and said it will have to issue around 15 billion Swiss francs ($15.1 billion) in new shares to shore up its capital base.
From MarketWatch:
Deutsche Bank to take $3.9 billion hit
Leveraged-loan market, commercial real estate, Alt-A exposures are cited
Deutsche Bank joined Swiss rival UBS in announcing a fresh write-down on Tuesday, citing a shuttered leveraged-loan market as well as exposure to U.S. mortgage-related securities for a hit of 2.5 billion euros ($3.9 billion).
The statement from Deutsche wasn’t unexpected after the bank had warned of this very possibility just last week.
…
“Conditions have become significantly more challenging during the last few weeks,” the lender said.
“Reflecting this environment, Deutsche Bank anticipates in the first quarter 2008 mark-downs in the region of 2.5 billion euros, related to leveraged loans and loan commitments, commercial real estate, and residential mortgage-backed securities (principally Alt-A),” it said.
From the Financial Times:
UBS and the case of the disappearing Alt-As
Remember that elusive rumour about UBS flogging its Alt-A portfolio. As the story bounced around the markets in March, UBS had supposedly sold more or less the entirety of its Alt-A portfolio to bond investor Pimco. The scary part was that, according to the whispers, the portfolio had been sold at 70 cents on the dollar, well below where it was being valued only a few weeks before.
The first glimpse at how UBS fared in the first quarter suggests that something did indeed happen within its Alt-A book. Subprime-related positions were reduced from $27.6bn to $15bn, a cut of about 55 per cent which could easily have come through straight writedowns. But Alt-A fell from $26.6bn to just $16bn, a 40 per cent drop. As the statement says:
These developments are the result of asset disposals as well as the effects of further writedowns.
With $19bn in total writedowns, it’s fair to say the bulk of the reduction came from the latter rather than the former. Assuming that the subprime writedown totalled close to the full $12.6bn, that leaves another $6.4bn to play with. How much of that could conceivably have hit Alt-A? We haven’t seen more than token efforts to write down banks’ Alt-A portfolios thus far – Lehman Brothers, for example, actually increased its “prime and Alt-A” holdings from the end of November to the end of February.
Deutsche Bank nevertheless on Tuesday ominously suggested that alt-A, among other things, might be the next shoe to drop.
From Bloomberg:
Lehman May Halt New Loans by U.K. Subprime Units, FT Reports
Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. may stop new loans by its two U.K. subprime-mortgage units and impose much tougher terms on borrowers with poor credit histories whose mortgages are approaching the end of fixed-rate periods, the Financial Times reported, citing Ray Boulger, of mortgage broker John Charcol.
From Bloomberg:
Merrill, Citigroup Estimates Cut by Goldman on CDOs
Merrill Lynch & Co. and Citigroup Inc. had their first-quarter earnings estimates cut by Goldman Sachs Group Inc., which said the two banks may post $14 billion in writedowns on assets linked to collateralized debt obligations.
“Mr. Boice has watched the value of his 401(k) and individual retirement accounts fall by roughly 20% so far this year, to a combined $240,000.”
How can anyone retire at 59 after 30 years at IBM with only 240k in retirement accounts?
Maybe the popping of the housing bubble will cause tons of baby boomers to keep working? Maybe this was the government’s plan along to save soc security. “let’s create a big housing bubble, encourage heloc, change the bankruptcy laws, then pop the bubble right before the boomers can collect soc security so those indentured oldies have to keep working”
#6 This isn’t so far fetched. People aren’t willing to pay up to save soc security but they’ll have no problem asking the gov for help to save their little piece of paradise.
From Bloomberg:
Banks Face Biggest Crisis in 30 Years, Report Says
Credit market turmoil poses the most severe crisis for banks in 30 years, surpassing Black Monday in 1987, the Asia currency crisis and the burst of the dot-com bubble, Morgan Stanley and Oliver Wyman said in a joint report.
Revenue from investment banking may drop 20 percent in 2008 before a further $75 billion in markdowns, analysts led by Huw van Steenis said in a note to clients today. Six quarters of earnings will have been erased by writedowns and falling revenue by this month, rivaling the collapse of the junk bond market at the end of the 1980s that put Drexel Burnham Lambert Inc. out of business, the report said.
“The industry is facing the most severe investment banking crisis in 30 years,” the analysts wrote in the report. “Global securities markets are in the midst of profound cyclical and structural change.”
bairen (7)-
I think it’s the only real plan the gubmint has to deal with the onslaught of people hitting retirement age.
Work ’em til they drop, then pull the chair out from under them.
As an echo boomer, I feel lucky to be part of the first demographic in American history to realize that Social Security is a sham…and that it will be bankrupt and gone by the time we hit retirement. Ergo, many of my age have always planned as though no support will be there. Hell, I don’t even want it. Keep those bastards out of my pocket, and out of my life.
Yeah, that’s a plan.
From the AP:
Analyst sees 200,000 US banking jobs at risk from subprime crisis
Analysts at financial research firm Celent say the U.S. banking industry will lose 200,000 jobs over the next 12 to 18 months.
The head of Celent’s financial consultancy unit says the job cuts will occur as the subprime crisis hits other parts of the banking industry.
Octavio Marenzi said Tuesday that staff reductions were inevitable as the U.S. economy weakens further.
Interesting thread over at patrick.net:
http://patrick.net/wp/?p=594
Word from the IRS is that they are auditing people based on refiances on their house. If you refied and pulled money out of the house and use for other purposes than home improvement you can not claim that as Mortgage Deduction, needs to be claimed as Interest expense. Guess what, they want proof of home improvements…
(I’m not a tax professional, but this statement is somewhat misleading, I believe you would have had to exceed the $50k/$100k threshold and specifically claimed your interest deductions as improvements to fall into this category.)
Morgan Stanley analysts see crisis as worst in 30 years
…earnings in the sector may take close to two years to recover. As many as six quarters’ worth of industry earnings may have been wiped in the period up to Easter, the broker said. Those losses are expected to rise to between 7.5 and 9.5 quarters of earnings, which would take it past the junk bond crisis in 1989/90 in terms of severity
#9 Clot. I think Soc security is a big scam for anyone below 55. A Ponzi scheme that will fold before we get $1
“Weak economy slows cargo, idles railcars”
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080329/ap_on_bi_ge/railcar_economy;_ylt=At1UITQbv2DBt5aJZehjEZCyBhIF
How Far Will House Prices Fall? Implications From the Latest WSJ Survey
About 5 months ago, I posted a figure depicting the impending resets on subprime mortgages, option adjustable rate and Alt-A ARMs. Responding to one comment, another reader made the following observation:
…a fall of 50% in [valuations on residential housing].
Nonsense.
I have to say that a 50% drop struck me as implausible as well. But, I thought I would re-examine this view in light of recent developments, and what the economists surveyed by the WSJ say.
dcsxr t = -0.018 + 1.754(dhpi t) + 0.610(dhpi t-1) + 0.302(dhpi t-2) + e t
Adj. R 2 = 0.72, SER = 0.0108, DW = 1.515, smpl = 1991Q4-07Q4.
——————————————–
One of the formulas used by writer.Maybe you guys can figure it out.(way over my head)Never the less the charts show a major decline in the worst case.Even if we take middle ground it would make most here very happy in their purchase.
On another note gold below 900 this morn.
What say you gold bugs load up or back off.
link
http://seekingalpha.com/article/70679-how-far-will-house-prices-fall-implications-from-the-latest-wsj-survey
We always called UBS “Unemployed Banking Services” In the 90’s they were known for buying up smaller companies, stripping the assets and business and dumping the staff out the back door.
They could make a few bucks advising JPM on how to strip Bear to the bone.
“In the 90’s they were known for buying up smaller companies, stripping the assets and business and dumping the staff out the back door.”
PGC [17],
In 2008, they will be known for a total revamp, including their letters;
SUB.
Hoboken inventory hit 571 properties. How about lowering those rip-off prices to sell the crappy condos?
miw [15],
If you are long term bullish, on the sidelines, this is exactly what you’re looking for. Unfortunately, the late comers will be forced to puke.
100’s of billions have been withdrawn from hedge funds recently. In conjunction with this, many hedgies are divorcing their prime brokers and seeking safety elsewhere. Also, margins have been increased, across the board. This leads to huge liquidation. How about long only funds? They are forced to get smaller, margins, or increase their capital.
I hope there is another $100 to the downside. My plan is to start getting back in, on more weakness. Hopefully, we’ll get back to the 200 day mov avg.
ALL DISCLAIMERS.
BC Was going in Oct Nov when jumped out of market missed the boat.Want to kill my guy at Morgan (O well he’s my brother).I’ve been waiting for an 800 – 850 level to buy.
We shall see.
IS GLD ok in your book.
Bill Gross: If Housing Prices Decline Further, So Does the Economy
Gross calling for a bailout.Depending on the election we may see one.On the other hand he is on the mark on the gov robbing the tax payers blind.Just wants them to rob us some more.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/70654-bill-gross-if-housing-prices-decline-further-so-does-the-economy
Gross calling for a bailout? You don’t say.
Where you sit is where you stand.
See #3 above:
Remember that elusive rumour about UBS flogging its Alt-A portfolio. As the story bounced around the markets in March, UBS had supposedly sold more or less the entirety of its Alt-A portfolio to bond investor Pimco.
mike (15)-
Load up…and wait for the next bomb to detonate. I smell PPT shorting activities all over gold. We know who will win that game.
And surely, the next bomb is ready to go off. CNBC this AM is featuring the San Diego Chicken and various talking heads musing about the “bottom being near”.
Market is greeting UBS’ 19 bil haircut as a relief. Like there’s no more crap behind it. Yeah, right.
“UBS plans $19 bln write-down”
That CAN’T be true!! bi and S&P said there would be no more writedowns!
(Although, to be fair, this one is a very SMALL writedown…)
Mike (21)-
Just watch Gartman. And, like BC said, wait for the late longs to run away and for the forced selling to subside.
IMO, it will happen fast, and things will turn on a dime.
(22)-
Gross is, sadly, right much of the time.
If you believe a bailout is inevitable, gold has got to be part of your defense against the wholesale prostituti@n of our currency and our economy.
Clot [27],
A bailout is coming. The RTC will rise again.
“Analysts at financial research firm Celent say the U.S. banking industry will lose 200,000 jobs over the next 12 to 18 months.”
All of them in California.
A bailout is coming. The RTC will rise again.
Maybe they’ll buy up all the foreclosures in Upper Haughtyville and rent them out Section 8.
McMansion? No Problem.
Dice that thing up into a 3 or 4 unit S8 rental, just like they did to the mansions in Plainfield after the riots.
Affordable housing here we come!
LONDON (Reuters) – UBS Chairman Marcel Ospel, whose resignation was announced on Tuesday, threw in the towel after the Swiss bank said it was seeking its second emergency capital injection in a matter of months as its subprime losses soar.
Ospel, vituperated in the Swiss media as the man responsible for a disastrous venture into U.S. subprime mortgages, survived a barrage of criticism from angry shareholders at a company meeting little more than a month ago.
But news that UBS was writing down an additional $19 billion in ailing assets, bringing the total cost of its subprime fiasco to a staggering $37 billion, was too much even for the resilient Ospel to bear.
[snip]
http://www.reuters.com/article/reutersEdge/idUSL0136142120080401
http://www.listbyowneronmlseast.com/NJ-Bergen/
Has anyone hear every used this to sell a house, my friend in Ho Ho Kus might use it but I was wondering if it is some type of scam. Here is their pitch.
With Continental Real Estate Group, Inc. you pay a one-time low listing fee to list your property, and if an agent brings you a buyer, pay that agent a commission, which is half of what you would normally pay based on the above example. Furthermore, if you sell your own property as a For Sale By Owner, you will not pay the 3% buyer agent commission, saving you even $1000’s more.
The bottom line is you can have many of the benefits of For Sale By Owner marketing while still being listed on the MLS with an agent at the same time. So you will have the best of both worlds.
Get maximum exposure for your property by purchasing a Multiple Listing Service (MLS) ad with Continental Real Estate Group, Inc..
# 31 The Alpine hillbillies in the future?
Was anyone at the REDC auction last night? Property’s are still very expensive I’m proud to say that I was overbid on that Pennington home that Sold for $575K +5% BP.
Mike#15
rent a U-Haul, back it up and load up as much as it fits your budget. You’ll be glad you did.
Bob,
A bailout is coming. The RTC will rise again.
What do you think a bailout will do to falling home prices?
Shore,
Close…
I could probably get 10 section 8 units out of 25 Burning Hollow Road, Saddle River.
Would make for a nice shared community, pool in the back, manicured grounds, quiet and clean neighborhood.
33 john,
Lord knows I hate RE agents but in this market they are needed and well worth your 4%. Especially for an average Joe.
In 2004-6, you were a moron if you used one. The mania sold your home all you need to do was put a huge price on it.
Nat City puts itself up for sale.
Nobody knows how deep their losses are, their mortgage biz is dead man walking, and it’s up 10% on the announcement.
OK guys I’m on board,is ETF GLD the way to go or are there other places.Not buying a vault for the basement!
John (33)-
If all it takes to sell your house for as much as possible is access to the MLS, why is the market cratering and the MLS inventory growing by close to 1,000 units a week in NJ?
Even if this crew’s fee is .10 USD, it is too high. They bring no skill to the table, do not actually do anything, make the seller do all the work of selling and falsely promote the notion that MLS access- in and of itself- is all that is required to sell a house successfully.
Mike (40)-
Don’t hoard physical gold. The Gold Act may be enforced again at some point in the future.
You hate the not only the US government but all governments. In numerous posts you’ve implied you wish to overthrow the government. You’re a wild eyed radical and very dangerous.
Clotpoll Says:
April 1st, 2008 at 7:10 am
bairen (7)-
I think it’s the only real plan the gubmint has to deal with the onslaught of people hitting retirement age.
Work ‘em til they drop, then pull the chair out from under them.
As an echo boomer, I feel lucky to be part of the first demographic in American history to realize that Social Security is a sham…and that it will be bankrupt and gone by the time we hit retirement. Ergo, many of my age have always planned as though no support will be there. Hell, I don’t even want it. Keep those bastards out of my pocket, and out of my life.
Yeah, that’s a plan.
(38)-
“…I hate RE agents but in this market they are needed and well worth your 4%.”
“In 2004-6, you were a moron if you used one. The mania sold your home all you need to do was put a huge price on it.”
All this from a guy who can’t collect his rent.
Hope you had a 20% deadbeat factor worked into your ’08 projections there, bud.
reinvestor101 Says:
April 1st, 2008 at 9:40 am
You hate the not only the US government but all governments.
Clot, Do you mind if I will handle this one.
reinvestor101
Sit Down, Shut Up!
Grim 31 What are they going to do with these monster houses in my town (VERNON).Septic built for 4 bd one fam.Breaking it up into 4 apts is a nono.They want close to a mil even up here taxes around 17k.They have 4 monsters just getting done now, HUGE can’t imagine heating that b*tch.
writedown becomes good news now. people start to think their assets become more real. Both UBS and Lehman are up 10% this morning.
Gold and oil are tumbling and we should demand bernanke save oil ang gold.
You’re allowed to borrow 100K over the cost basis of your home and deduct the related interest regardless of how the money was used. Amounts over 100K have to be used for specific purposes (home improvements, business financing, financing of other real estate purchases and etc) for the interest to be deductible. Basically, if you borrow in excess of 100K over basis and use the proceeds to buy a Bentley, don’t expect to deduct the interest.
grim Says:
April 1st, 2008 at 7:24 am
Interesting thread over at patrick.net:
http://patrick.net/wp/?p=594
Word from the IRS is that they are auditing people based on refiances on their house. If you refied and pulled money out of the house and use for other purposes than home improvement you can not claim that as Mortgage Deduction, needs to be claimed as Interest expense. Guess what, they want proof of home improvements…
(I’m not a tax professional, but this statement is somewhat misleading, I believe you would have had to exceed the $50k/$100k threshold and specifically claimed your interest deductions as improvements to fall into this category.)
From MarketWatch:
More jobs to go at struggling UBS
More investment-banking jobs will have to go at UBS in light of another $19 billion in write-downs that the Swiss banking giant will take, the company’s chief executive said Tuesday.
Fresh cuts will come on top of the 1,500 job losses that UBS announced in October. They’ll likely be focused on the fixed-income side of the company’s business, where other firms have also been shedding jobs in recent months.
“The environment is tough, and we will have to review our capacity,” said CEO Marcel Rohner on a conference call with analysts.
“You can expect that in the next few weeks we will be more specific on what the shape and size will be,” Rohner added, though he declined to comment on whether the next round of cuts will exceed those announced in October.
John (33),
Beside, it doesn’t look as if the houses get listed on NJMLS so they won’t get much exposure in BC.
bi [47],
Good news? Begging bowls?
Clot,
Nat City puts itself up for sale.
Nobody knows how deep their losses are, their mortgage biz is dead man walking, and it’s up 10% on the announcement.
Short anyone?
# 37 Grim,
Whenever I drive through mcmansion developments that are on the outskirts of many cities, I have the feeling that someday they will indeed be sliced and diced into multi-apartment units. I can see a day when people of means decide to split their time between a house in town and one in the country, not unlike the lifestyle of the 19th cent and early 20th cent. Commuting will be for the poor and the mcmansions will become exurban ghettos.
John (33)
I used a flat fee MLS service to sell my condo. I listed in Aug.2007 and closed in Dec 2007. I paid a flat fee of $450.00 and 2.5% back to the buyers agent. If I had sold to a buyer without an agent then no commish to be paid. However I spent many a weekend hosting my own open houses and time and effort spent marketing the property. My situation was different because I was in a condo complex. Marketing the unit was a bit easier than a house because all the units were the same but for upgrades and views. So in my case the flat fee worked. I am not sure that I would have had the same results if a owned a home. Just my two cents.
I agree with BC Bob the RTC in some form will be back, but the democrats will not allow a bailout by our sitting ducks in the White House and Congress. The government will either buy the homes outright or the mortgages (banks), but not until Feburary 2009 after the next president is seated.
Clot,
For the first time in a long time I said that your services are needed and you start with all the non-sense about collecting rent.
NO, I can’t collect 5 rents, what’s that got to do with RE agents. Are you guys expanding your services to rent Collectors?
“Wall Street rallied in early trading Tuesday, the first day of the second quarter, on news that two banks slammed by the credit crisis are working to raise cash. The Dow Jones industrial average soared more than 160 points.”
– Is this George Orwell’s 1984?? All Hail Big Brother!
Sean [55],
I agree with the time frame.
It amazes me how the bulls will look for the bright side of ANYTHING in this environment. We’re looking down the tunnel at a freight train of a credit crunch, recession, housing crisis, and a currency crisis and they all follow each other like lemmings over the cliff.
So should I sell all my gold teeth, or wait a little longer and see if prices rise again?
Tard (43)-
“…you’re a wild eyed radical and very dangerous.”
Actually, I’m an anarchist, with a libertarian bent.
BTW, I’m also not begging for a gubmint handout. So, which one of us is really dangerous?
What do you think a bailout will do to falling home prices?
It depends on the nature of the bailout. If the bailout comes in the form of refinancing existing debt into ultra-low interest rates, it could prolong the correction (and thus prolong bubble prices). Many would not be able to sell because they are underwater, but at the same time you would have fewer forced sales as more people may be able to afford their payments.
Assuming a bailout means actually marking the home to market and forgiving a portion of the mortgage, it could get more complicated. On one hand, you may have fewer forced sales. On the other hand, people would be able to sell without bringing a check to the table or doing a short sale. This option may also alleviate the psychology of realizing a loss, since the gubmint/lender is taking the loss of value.
Why did the Bush administration lower housing prices in the first place? Seems like bad policy to me, but I’m not an expert.
From MarketWatch:
U.S. March ISM relatively stable at 48.6%
The nation’s manufacturers continued to cut back production in March, the Institute for Supply Management reported Tuesday. The ISM index inched higher to 48.6% in March from 48.3% in February. The rise was unexpected. The consensus forecast of estimates collected by Marketwatch was for the index to slip to 47.0%. Readings below 50 indicate contraction. Economists said the stability in the index was a signal that the recession could be mild.
Grim 31 What are they going to do with these monster houses in my town (VERNON).Septic built for 4 bd one fam.Breaking it up into 4 apts is a nono.
4 apts with ultra cheap rent and a free colostomy bag?
Perhaps the the worst is behind us. Commodities are correcting and equities are finding their base and will hold until the next bull run. Homes in our area might just stay flat for the next few years as all financials have now fessed up. It’s as plausible as any other explanation as I see no signs of armegeddon.
RE101 You are not going to find many people right of me but both parties are screwing us blind & we the people may have to set it straight. I sort of remember a few guys like that what where their names Adams,Franklin,Washington etc etc.Wake up people who love freedom are on the other side of the argument from you.
A few points from yesterday’s comments:
1) Clot, on your post about the S&P 500, specifically statins vs. pez…statins are nothing but a big pharma scam. The first statins were derived from red yeast rice, which you used to be able to get at health food stores. You can still get it, but the stuff you get has the compound that they now use to make statins taken out. Just in case you thought that the FDA was about consumers.
2) Regarding the oath someone said we have to take, specifically no granite. But what if you LIKE granite? Or are we just hopeless dupes of the home improvement industry? Not that I’m complaining, Wilsonart makes a lovely laminate that’s hardly distinguishable from the real thing.
Shore guy #53: I agree with you about the McMansions. In my neighborhood it had started to calm down but now there are TWO of them going up within three blocks of my house. And they are not attractive neo-Victorians, either; they are just big ugly boxes with vinyl siding. One of them that went up last year has languished on the market for nearly a year, dropping from $1.1 million to $889K and nothing doing. Another one is on the market by the builder; he wants $1.4 million firm and hasn’t even put in a driveway or any landscaping. That house has been sitting also for nearly a year. And they’re still putting them up. Meanwhile, smaller houses are sitting for up to 6 months, but they do eventually move.
Gary,
Good luck with that one:)
Don’t make me laugh. You’re not on the far right, but out there with Clod as an ultraextremist on the left. You’ve supported pretty much everything he’s said here. You’ve not spoken up against the left wing radicals here.
Mikeinwaiting Says:
April 1st, 2008 at 10:15 am
RE101 You are not going to find many people right of me but both parties are screwing us blind & we the people may have to set it straight. I sort of remember a few guys like that what where their names Adams,Franklin,Washington etc etc.Wake up people who love freedom are on the other side of the argument from you.
make (56)-
“For the first time in a long time I said that your services are needed and you start with all the non-sense about collecting rent.”
My “services” as a Realtor aren’t needed now. In fact, what Realtors endlessly hype as “service” is entirely useless. Our obsession with “service” is what’s caused us to be labeled as chauffeurs. Our “service” is what Zillow knows they can replace with an algorithm. Our “service” is what any number of hack direct-MLS-access firms know they can commoditize. Any buyer or seller can provide himself the kind of service Realtors give in a few minutes a day, at virtually no expense to himself. As an industry, we charge surgeon-like fees, and try to justify those fees by trumpeting our superior service. Things like returning phone calls promptly and making nice color brochures do not merit five-figure commissions, and the public rightly resents it.
I don’t offer “service”. In fact, I am the embodiment of anti-service. My job is to sell peoples’ houses, and- increasingly- save the sellers from utter financial ruin. I don’t care about my prospects’ granite counters or what their pig of a neighbor got for his dump two years ago. I am the surgeon for real estate cancer, and if you don’t do exactly as I say, the cancer will metastasize and kill you. If you don’t like what I’m telling you, I will shake your hand, wish you well and bid you a good day.
If you call me with some idiot question or to complain that a buyer let three leaves blow into your foyer when he came to view your house, I will NOT return your call. Deal with it. You want some “feedback” from the guy who pulled up your driveway with his agent, took one look and peeled out? How about this for feedback: HE’S NOT GOING TO BUY YOUR HOUSE. The only feedback that matters comes in written contract form, with pre-approval for financing attached. Of course, a lis pendens duct-taped to your garage door is another form of feedback…
When I go ballistic on this topic, it’s because I actually agree with most everybody here. Realtors who simply offer service don’t deserve to be paid more than $10/hour, tops. Service isn’t the sundae…it’s the cherry on top. When we get ourselves to the point of being able to consult, advise and add true value to the transaction, the public will see the benefit and accept that we’re earning what we charge.
[rant off]
2nd UPDATE: Dell Seeks Alternatives For Financial-Services Arm
By Ben Charny
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
SAN FRANCISCO -(Dow Jones)- Dell Inc. (DELL) said Monday it is “undertaking a strategic assessment of ownership alternatives” for its Dell Financial Services division, which has ties to a commercial lender snared by the subprime crisis.
Those alternatives range from selling the financial division, which is valued at about $1 billion, to not changing a thing, a Dell spokesman said.
Dell’s actions highlight how the subprime crisis has begun to snare technology companies, which are more apt to have financial-services arms like Dell’s in order to lend its customers money to help finance their deals. But as the credit crisis worsens, Dell, Microsoft Corp. (MSFT), telecommunications maker Avaya Inc. and others with similar arrangements face potentially similar reckonings.
For 11 years, Dell has contracted with New York-based commercial lender CIT Group Inc. (CIT) to provide its customers with loans to finance their Dell product purchases. About a tenth of Dell’s sales last year involved CIT Group in some way. While Dell bought up CIT’s share of the joint venture late last year, about $455 million of the current $2.1 billion Dell has loaned to its customers was underwritten by CIT.
CIT is now reeling under the weight of its investments in subprime mortgages. Last week, CIT’s future was called into question after the lender said it had tapped a $7.3 billion line of credit in order to continue day-to-day operations through the end of the year.
On Monday, Dell said it is assessing alternatives for its U.S. consumer and small-to-medium business revolving credit financing receivables and operations. The review may also include commercial leasing.
“We plan to look at alternatives that will strengthen the product offerings, enhance customer experience and improve (Dell Financial Services’) overall financial services capabilities in the most efficient way,” Dell Chief Financial Officer Don Carty said in a statement.
The relationship between Dell and CIT dates back to 1997, when the two created a joint venture so Dell could offer business-customer financing. Two years into operations, the joint venture also began lending money to consumers. Partnering with CIT helped to goose sales in a way that helped Dell also expand its profit margins.
CIT currently offers finance programs for Dell’s customers in Canada and in more than 40 other countries throughout Europe, Asia, Latin America and the South Pacific. CIT continues to have the option to provide funding to Dell’s financial services division through January 2010.
CIT also has similar lending relationships with telecommunications provider Avaya and computer software giant Microsoft, which could put those tech firms in the same situation facing Dell. Avaya and Microsoft had no immediate comment.
“We are fully committed to supporting Dell and all of our valued vendor- finance clients, and will continue to service their vendor-financing needs,” CIT said in a statement last week. A company representative couldn’t immediately be reached for comment on Dell’s announcement.
http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/djf500/200803311836DOWJONESDJONLINE000800_FORTUNE5.htm
FYI Dell to cut 8,800 jobs in total globally. 900 in Austin.
From the AP:
Construction Spending Falls in February
Construction spending fell again in February as home building tumbled for a record 24th straight month.
The Commerce Department reported Tuesday that overall construction activity dropped 0.3 percent in February, reflecting weakness not only in home building but also in nonresidential activity. Only government building projects showed a gain in February.
Residential construction fell by 0.9 percent in February. Residential activity has fallen every month since March 2006, a record period of declines that underscored the severe downturn going on in housing.
#35 mike in waiting..was that the Roosevelt property? There are abour 5 lots for sale there for 500,000 a piece and about 3 or 4 other for sales…some want 1.5 million…distressed area if you ask me. I think the on Jefferson is a divorce, another one is empty. There is a home around the corner on Linden that is on the sheriff list. It shows they owe 680,000 but here may be more debt attached. they are trying to sell for about 899,000…
#59 – shore guy
On townhouses and manor estates. I think you are dead on. That is one of my forecasts and I have a pretty good record for macro trends. That is why I floated my idea about a large parcel in NoPA on another thread–essentially a ten com estate for unrelated buyers.
Last year I read about some exburban housing devs that included undeveloped farmland, jointly owned by the buyers in the dev. and encumbered so that the farmland could not be developed. They get to farm parcels and keep what they grow (or sell it). Nice potential tax benefit there as well.
Clotpoll #71
Not trying to be a wiseguy, just asking, but
what is the true value that you add to the transaction?
Why is it that every other week we hear “The worst is behind us.”
The market is ridiculously volatile right now, that it is ridiculous. One day a mouse farts and the DOW is down 300 points, the next day X financial firm writes off 50 billion and it is up 100 points. We are only months into this.
Corrections take time and it all comes down to fundamentals somewhere in between. So sit back, grab your popcorn and watch us come back to earth, then fall into a trench, then back to earth, then up into the clouds and repeat every decade.
Chifi,
Can you answer this? These market swings are not driven by Joe Blow investor moving around his 401K because of news that comes through Yahoo! finance. Who drives them, and is it safe to say that the public really has no affect on what is going on, except for in the long run.
House hunter I think we are talking two different Vernons I’m in Sussex Cty.
#70 recrybaby: And you are a cry baby, with your hand out looking for a bailout, which is nothing more than welfare.
#66
“Perhaps the the worst is behind us. Commodities are correcting and equities are finding their base and will hold until the next bull run. Homes in our area might just stay flat for the next few years as all financials have now fessed up. It’s as plausible as any other explanation as I see no signs of armegeddon.”
Here’s why I think this is wrong. Job losses have just begun to ramp up in the last couple of months. We keep hearing over and over again how we are in a financial crisis but the broader economy is strong. Well that is because job losses (and the threat of losing one’s job) haven’t yet shown up in most companies’ earnings.
Additionally, it is nonsensical to separate the financial crisis from the rest of the economy. Our economy is built on loose credit. It simply cannot function without it. So again, nonfinancial companies look relatively strong right now, but after another 6 months of difficulty getting credit to do deals they will look weaker as well.
Finally, the bubble has popped here in America, but there is a real estate bubble in much of the rest of the world as well which remains a step behind us. We won’t be out of this until Europe and Asia go down the tubes as well.
Senate moves toward key vote on mortgage crisis
The bill would, for the first time, allow bankruptcy judges to reset mortgages on primary residences. It would also provide $4 billion for local communities to buy and refurbish foreclosed properties; provide $200 million for counseling to help homeowners avoid foreclosure; give tax breaks for the homebuilding industry; and improve loan disclosure and transparency.
Most Republicans back a proposal by Republican Sens. Kit Bond of Missouri and Johnny Isakson of Georgia. Its key feature is a $15,000 tax credit for people who buy and occupy a home that is in or near foreclosure.
Realtors add almost nothing to transactions. Read today’s op-ed piece in the Journal on licensing of interior decorators. Once your profession is licensed you have a state-granted monopoly, and can raise prices to ridiculous levels due to the barrier of entry into the profession.
opps it was #35 make money…sorry
#66 gary: as I see no signs of armegeddon.
I guess it depends on what or how you look at things.
But I see signs of armagedon all around us. The Bear collapse was just the most recent one.
You and I have discussed this before, but I will say it again. To think that after all that has transpired that somehow we will just end up with flat prices is a mistake.
And still the housing ineventory continues to grow, and grow.
all of the bailout proposals are infuriating and although I believe a bailout of homeowners will result, I do not think it would prop up house prices much as it does nothing to address affordability. basically, I think a bailout would just flush money down the toilet by allowing “homeowners” to continue to pay their mortgages for a time. it is a completely short-sighted idea because there is little incentive to keep paying a mortgage on a house where you have zero equity and the house is declining in value. it may take most of these deadbeats a while to figure this out, but they will eventually
Against the Grain,
Mylar ballons vs. Standard Latex
Wooden For Sale Signs vs. Metal
Glossy 5×9 Photos vs. MLS Photocopied Print Out
Meat & Cheese Platter vs. Hard Candy
Obviously joking, but, does any of the stuff matter. And which ones?
#82 njbear: I would think giving judges the ability to reset mtgs and renegogiate amounts owed, would destroy the real estate market, as how can one accurately value a piece of property, if one who declares bankruptcy can have a chunk of that debt forgiven by a judge. What does that do to the guy next door’s value if his house?
Perhaps clot can comment on this.
House Hunter
I was referring to this…but I guess noone went last night.
http://www.ushomeauction.com/property.php?auctionID=H-022&itemID=14853&venueId=88&start=0
71 Clotpoll
I agree with your analysis, of where realtors have to go to really earn their high commissions, but don’t you think the “service” end of it is important too? Like promptly returning phone calls no matter what the question, and delivering feedback promptly? I think sellers are so emotional, they need the hand-holding as well as the cold, hard facts.
I actually think that realtors should be split up a bit more. There is a place for chauffeurs who will spend all day with you, driving you around. Maybe they should get paid some flat rate? Then there is the pro that really makes the deal happen that should be comped on a commission basis?
Or perhaps that has already happened, which is why many buyer agents, who are supposed to be working for the buyer, end up acting like spineless tour guides, working for themselves. The problem is, many people view the industry through the behavior of these tour guide types.
Why is it that every other week we hear “The worst is behind us.”
The market is ridiculously volatile right now
The Dow’s single best days in its history & some of the strongest rallies in history occured during the Great Depression. I think the Dow rallied about 30% in the months after Black Tuesday.
Also, during downturns you get very strong short side interest. In what otherwise would be a small uptick in a down market, turns into a self reinforcing 350 point rally due to shorts covering.
Gary,
We are just entering a prolonged recession. Housing took a hit with 6% interest rates and no recession last year.
That shows you how overpriced things are. chill out let some people loose jobs. let the Credit become even more scarce. keep saving. You’ll be glad you did.
Ann,
Clot is just upset right now. Don’t pick on him.
The value that a seasoned RE agent needs to be that they will get every penny out the deal. That a clueless buyer/seller will not leave any money on the table at the end of the transaction.
They are there to protect their clients. Problem is their focus on making the sale. Making a sale should NOT be REA’s priority but unfortunately it is.
I think this girl in Ho Ho Kus might actually benefit from a realtor, now to find her a good one. She had an open house last weekend and blew $400 in ads and did not bother to even put up an open house sign in front of her house or make up fliers. I keep telling her she has to do it all the way as if she was a realtor, the days of putting an ad in the paper is over, if she won’t devote a ton or work and two to three months of work to sell her house she should hand it off.
Problem with realtors is most are bad. The ones that are good are worth their weight in gold. The trouble is finding the 1 in 10 that is good and not getting stuck with the 90% who are bad at it.
I wish the housing market worked like the stock market, it is idiotic that on every transaction the buyer, seller and real estate agent think the house is worth three different amounts..
TJ Says:
April 1st, 2008 at 10:41 am
Chifi, Can you answer this? These market swings are not driven by Joe Blow investor moving around his 401K because of news that comes through Yahoo! finance. Who drives them, and is it safe to say that the public really has no affect on what is going on, except for in the long run.
TJ: this answer is going to sound like a copout. Bear in mind, ALL actors in the market are relevant and Joe Blow is more relevant with his 401(k)’s than he has ever been in the past. Even though what you see appears to be utter chaos, there is a method to the madness.
If you learn some of the basics of accounting, and then add some of the basics regarding time value of money it gives a framework. Make a list of all the risks that exist, and then you can really wrap your head around the dynamism.
SIMPLEST FORMS
(1) Accounting: Assets – Liabilites = Shareholder’s Equity
(2) Time Value of Money: Present Value + interest = Future Value
(3) Finance: (Market Value) Assets – (MV)L = (MV)SE
(4) Number 2 means PV = FV less interest
(5) The amount of risk you face means that you will demand more or less interest. More risk = more interest demanded.
(6) Look at a supply and demand curve from economics.
Everything going on can be boiled down to this level.
The biggest problem in the markets today is the (MV)A in A-L=SE, and also that the A is not in cash form, and people aren’t willing to accept the A that some of the actors (i.e. banks) are offering.
To the extent that A can be converted from an illiquid form to cash, you can appreciate how much SE can wildly fluctuate.
Gary,
I’m short this market and am not worried whatsoever about this short-term rally.
The fact that the market ignored the problems of UBS and LEH this morning does not surprise me one bit. It’s the same mentality that brought us record bonuses to all Wall Street employees only three months before their firms share prices collapsed.
Like MM said, chill, save, be patient and reap the rewards. Don’t follow the herd of sheeple. You will only end up getting trampled.
3b,
Middle class job losses will be high. They just did a 15% cut at work. Mind you, we are no where close to NYC.
4B in foreclosure avoidance equates to about 80 million per state. That’s like 160-250 houses in NJ.
Clot (71) – that rant is legendary.
I have almost a 20% DP for a starter townhouse / condo, and I’m planning on a 5 year stay. I looked into borrowing from my 401k plan, and while I would prefer not to do so, I may have over-saved for retirement (although one could argue that over-saving for retirement is impossible). Like a lot of home buyers I’ve fallen victim to expanding my search beyond my initial price range. If I go beyond my range, I can get a place that would work for 10 years.
My question is this: is it worth it to borrow from a 401k plan to get the last 10-15 grand needed to cough up 20% on a place where I could plan on a 10 year stay? Or is it better to get a second mortgage in an 80/10/10 scenario and pay down the second mortgage ASAP? I could reasonably expect to repay the 401k loan in about 18-24 months. I have perfect credit and at most I’d have to borrow 10% from my retirement stash.
BTW – Realtors do not squeeze every last nickel out of the buyer. Read freaknomics. From an economic perspectice if they can sell your house in one day underpriced at $500K and they get 3% they make $15,000 if they spend several weeks agressively marketing your house and sold it for $550 they get $16,500. But if they spent that time getting a second home sold cheap they could of made $30,000 in the same time period unloading two homes at the lower price. They lose $13,500 by getting the best price. Meanwhile when I bought my house the owner was divorcing and both were leaving New York for good. His RE broker was very nice to me and fought for consessions from the seller and actually told me to lower my bid by 15K and she would talk the buyer into taking it. My wife loved her and the realtor told told me when I sell my starter house to trade up house to remember her and she sends me a christmas card each year. It was in her interest for any seller that is leaving or never buying another house to favor the buyer over the seller as she could get that listing again in 5-10 years. When I sold my last house on my own I squeezed every last cent out of it and could care less about the buyer. I had no hidden agendas. But 95% of FSBOs are handled by idiots so in that case a good realtor is much much better than a homeowner who is lousy at selling things.
Stu Says:
April 1st, 2008 at 11:25 am
The fact that the market ignored the problems of UBS and LEH this morning does not surprise me one bit.
Stu: I am going to comment here as a strategist, and will state publicly that I have no position in LEH Brothers equity. I would demand that you consult with qualified advice, and you cannot use this opinion for investment purposes. You must conduct your own independent research.
I think the LEH thing is friggin’ shrewd. What took down BSC was hedgies shorting the stock and then pulling their accounts from BSC-Primer Brokerage. It was an artificial run on the bank that morphed into a real one. Lehman is on the front lines saying f— you, and hopefully we will squeeze you hard you ———
All is fair in love and war I guess.
An old classic
“Your average Wall Streeter, faced with nothing profitable to do, does nothing for only a brief time. Then, suddenly and hysterically, he does something which turns out to be extremely unprofitable. He is not a lazy man.
For one thing, customers have an unfortunate habit of asking about the financial future. Now if you do someone the signal honor of asking him a difficult question, you may be assured that you will get a detailed answer. Rarely will it be the most difficult of all answers — “I don’t know.”
There was always a scattering of bears, “aginners” by temperament, who spent their business days having their ears knocked off. Many of them, bowing to a force which finally seemed cosmic, switched to being bulls at a sadly late period in the era. The remainder who were still short at the time of the crash covered too soon (as who wouldn’t?). Then, after prices had gone inconceivably lower, they took their profits and bought stocks (as who wouldn’t?). In due course of time, if they bought on margin, they went to “the Cleaners,” that mythical establishment to which their brother speculators had repaired some time earlier. “The Cleaners” was not one of those exclusive clubs; by 1932, everybody who had ever tried speculation had been admitted to membership. “
Grim #101 in moderation.
Chifi,
No copout, thanks for the response. Those formulas brought back memories of managerial/cost accounting exams in college.
So with that being said, with all the writedowns, why is the MV of A not being realized in the SE? If that is even a valid question? And if it is, what do you see as an overall impact to the market once the real value of A is realized in terms of the indices.
Clott 42,
you can still keep some gold around, just not the “investment” portion of your gold holdings and do not keep it in a safe deposit box. Oh and buy the gold for cash.
Re # 43
reinvestor101 Says:
April 1st, 2008 at 9:40 am
You hate the not only the US government but all governments. In numerous posts you’ve implied you wish to overthrow the government. You’re a wild eyed radical and very dangerous.
Re, do you know the history of the founding of this county? Do you realize that the description you used is exactly what people considered the founders of the USA???? change is not brought about by the meek or by the entranced consumer class. Any serious change in the US whether a revolution of some sort or of another form will follow the historical path. That path is the “intellectuals” of the society become disillusioned and restless first and then this groups leads the general population.
This board is generally representative of the “intellectual” segment of the US as opposed to the Joe sixpack segment. Clott may be more accurate then he realizes. The amount of disgruntled discussion among the highly educated in the US appears to growing .
Jmac,
Rather than tap your 401K, I would strongly suggest you save for the next 18-24 months. Chances are, it won’t take that long for you to get the remaining DP you require and home prices will drop just shortening your wait time. Seriously. The unexpected expenses required after purchasing a new place are pretty steep so I don’t recommend you buy a place unless you have a decent nut set aside for such unexpected contingencies. Renting is still a significantly better deal right now than owning. Hopefully in the the next year or two, this might change a bit, if we’re lucky enough.
Its key feature is a $15,000 tax credit for people who buy and occupy a home that is in or near foreclosure.
How is this fair to the poor schlep trying to sell his home who didn’t get into financial trouble? This is just a thinly veiled wealth transfer to banks, who would otherwise take the loss on a foreclosure. Taxpayers hand buyers $15k, which they then give to the seller, who turns the money over to a bank that never should have made the loan in the first place.
#94 There is 3 values to a house.
1- Quick Sale
What a Realtor wants to the list the house for to get a quick commission because they know its under priced.
2- Overpriced
What a Realtor says your house is worth to get you to sign the paperwork. Oh no your house is worth 30K more than what those other realtor’s say. your underselling yourself. When they get the signature they won a portion of the commission even if it sells.
3- Reality
The good realtors might will tell you this price and the previous two. Sometimes without you asking.
I too wish the house market worked more like the stock market.
How the heck do you oversave for retirement in a 401K plan? Unless you are a dink and put in the full $31K each year it is hard to imagine you already have well over a million already. If you are under 40 you need around two million by retirement in the 401K plan.
Borrowing from the 401K plan is dumb and is even crazier when the market is at an all time low. If you borrown 20K in March 2000 and repaid it over the March 2000-2004 period you rebought stocks at a lower price and paid yourself interest. Problem now if we truly are near a bottom you will borrow (sell) stocks near the low and rebuy then back at a higher amount. Also RE has another year or two to fall so what you are investing in is also falling.
John,
That chapter is great. I wonder if Stephen Dubner and Steven Levitt are going to have a lot more case studies for crack dealers who used to be VP’s of the defunt mortgage companies and divisions.
#89 make money…that is one I was thinking of. Just to clarify, the $ you spoke of in the earlier post was the bid you put in? And no other bid went through? I am in no way looking at it, it is in the town I live in so I am just curious. Taxes there are about $25-30,000 or more for some.
ChiFi:
I think I found your explanation and this article here…
http://seekingalpha.com/article/70756-lehman-s-preferred-offering-bullish-for-stocks?source=yahoo
And don’t worry, I’m not touching LEH or any of the other IBs with a ten foot pole.
Once I again though, I do appreciate the advice.
Chi, #100
I wake up in the morning to Bloomberg Radio on my clock radio.
Right after BSC, I heard something about Treasury putting out the word to the sharks to lay off Lehman.
“Lehman is on the front lines saying f— you, and hopefully we will squeeze you hard you ———”
Chi,
At 7.5%?
You know what’s funny… I sit next to a guy that states that now is a great time to buy. He said that the money I spend will be a great tax benefit. i told him that I could possibly save 15% more if I wait another year and he said that it would not be possible.
He also stated that paying off a mortgage early is dumb and that you would not get the tax benefits. I don’t know but as for me I rather put in the $1700 to $1800 a month in interest in investments then to give it to a home loan. Gosh how I love people who put in the 2 cents especially if their wrong.
Nom 75
I agree with both you and shore about the decline of the sub-division/burbs. The catch is that more traditional small towns may fair alright. As they are more tight nit and more self contained.
You may be ahead of your time with the farmland “coop” idea. but then once again what was old is new again. What you are describing is essentially the 2000’s version of a 70’s cooperative community.
Stu, John –
Thanks for the honest answers. I may be moving up to Beantown where there are some good deals to be had. My gf and I would prefer to live in one of the city-like towns outside Boston (Somerville, Watertown, Cambridge) and this might be an opportunity to score a place that we’d keep for 10 years and allow us to be a one car family. Between my cash, her cash, corp relo money (if I get the job!), we’ll be agonizingly close to 20% down and I have heard horror stories about trying to shake PMI loose. At this point I should swallow my pride and call the Bank of Mom and Dad for a loan rather than raid the 401k. I think they’ll give me a break based on my 800+ FICO scores.
TJ Says:
April 1st, 2008 at 11:37 am
So with that being said, with all the writedowns, why is the MV of A not being realized in the SE?
In the absence of a MV of A, individual actors assign their own. Just because the bank says A=10, if the collective opinion of the investors is (MV)A=8, when the bank writes A=10 down to A=8, it doesn’t necessarily shift the stock price. This situation would be an example of a piece of information that is “…already in the price…”
clot, #71
You said:
When we get ourselves to the point of being able to consult, advise and add true value to the transaction, the public will see the benefit and accept that we’re earning what we charge.
I think you’re being too hard on yourself.
My family sold a total of 4 houses between 2003 and 2005 – two estate sales, one divorce, one elderly couple moving to a seniors’ apartment.
Most people think about real estate only when it’s time to buy or sell, and then they’re clueless – especially when it comes to pricing it right. I heard a lot about how it’s important to price it right to attract attention on the first go or the listing can go stale very quickly.
It’s not that tough to interview a dozen agents and determine who’s blowing smoke and who knows their stuff. Plus, most of our agents were referrals – known quantities.
Nobody in my family was unhappy about the fees. Everything got done quickly. When you want to sell – especially in an estate situation, where you don’t want the house to sit there vacant – speed matters.
BC Bob Says:
April 1st, 2008 at 11:55 am
“Lehman is on the front lines saying f— you, and hopefully we will squeeze you hard you ———”
Chi,At 7.5%?
Looks cheap to me, also with an substantial out-of-the-money call.
ML# 812057
4 bedroom colonial located on 1 acre of land, needs repairs and updating, indoor pool, being sold AS IS with buyer responsible for C/O and smoke detector certs. Pre-qual and/or proof of funds required with all offers. Bring flashlight!! Beware of mold!!
WTF!!!
Anyone any thoughts on Roth 401K’s. At what point is it going to be beneficial to use it. From what I can see, it makes sense to someone starting out in their career or near the end. If you are in the middle in your prime earning years, your future tax rate in retirement will most likely be lower as Social Security will not be arround so the gvmt will have to give the seniors a break some how.
Grain (77)-
Short version:
-Real marketing, not useless ad placement
-Consultation on financial consequences of buy/sell, not “it’s a great time to buy/sell”
-prep and merchandising of home to take advantage of quality photography & appeal to targeted market.
-management of peripheral processes triggered by a sale of RE (increasingly, that’s dealing/negotiating with loss mitigation departments)
Believe me, it’s a full day of work. And, it is a value-add…even if the add part is getting a lender to take a 70-100K shot in the shorts.
Grain (77)-
Here’s what I don’t do (nor do my agents):
-floor time
-incessant “personal marketing”
-caravan listings
-broker open houses
-incessant public open houses
-use social networking to harass friends & family to give us biz
-vanity advertising
Mish’s Global Economic Trend Analysis
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/04/wa-mu-alt-pool-deteriorates-further.html
“The problem should be clear. In no way shape or form, should any package of liar loans been rated AAA.”
“This action is just a start. Expect far more downgrades in Alt-A mortgages. Prime mortgages will follow suit as well.”
Herring123 Says:
March 31st, 2008 at 9:56 pm
I personally have nothing against active strategies, as long as they’re low-cost. Heck, my entire fixed income allocation is in PIMCO Total Return. I (and probably most Bogleheads) am not against anything that’s not super simple, I just believe that in assessing a fancy strategy, its cost should be weighed against the obvious simple (and lower-cost) alternative.
Herring: I strongly appreciate your willingness to separate the discussions of theoretical finance as it relates to investment, and cost. These issues are distinct, and reflexively get lumped together.
You miscast yourself as an indexer and are more focused on appropriate cost structure.
If so, you do yourself a disservice invoking Bogle or that website, because in reality, it is tied up with a whole set of issues that really fly in the face of what you are trying to accomplish.
Dawg (83)-
Bull$hit. The bar to entry in RE cannot be lower. Fog a damn mirror is the standard.
Any number of appropriators, aggregators and leeches (i.e, Foxtons) have been given free rein to join the RE party. The common result? They get smashed on the punch, barf themselves and get carried out on their backs.
Fed can bill Treasury for any BSC loss!
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=699856105&play=1
3b (88)-
If a judge can modify terms of a mortgage, goobye lending industry, goodbye housing. Forever.
Even Obama recognizes this.
Herring123 Says:
March 31st, 2008 at 9:56 pm
Regarding the contributing advisors, it’s difficult to be sure of their motives for adopting a particular strategy, but I think it’s unlikely that they adopt a certain strategy because they’re lazy and don’t care about their clients (I thought I was cynical). Call me crazy. Then again, I don’t personally know them or many other financial advisors, so it’s tough to say.
Herring: I didn’t use the word lazy. They have a finite bandwidth and want to focus their energy in a specific place.
As an example, many people in my industry talk about “fee-only” and “life planning”. I can interpret them into laymen’s terms.
“fee-only” means you only deserve to have financial planning service if you have a (g-d d-mned) lot of money to investment, otherwise I can’t be bothered with you. If that is not the case, then I am practicing financial planning as a hobby or else I break-even and depend on my spouse/inherited wealth to support me.
“life planning” means practicing counseling with credentials. It grants an excuse for people with big egos to intrude into other people’s lives.
withOUT credentials
Ann (90)-
You are exactly right. I exaggerated to prove a point. Being a professional and having a businesslike demeanor is as important for me as for anyone who deals with the public. And, part of what Realtors do is soothe the nerves of very agitated principals. Buying/selling RE involves lots of money, and emotions do need settling.
My only beef is that we try to justify our fees based upon an aspect of our business that is of de minimus financial impact.
Some companies are coming around to splitting the “chauffeur” and “old pro” into two different jobs, handled by two different people. Compensations also reflect the quality of the work done.
However, I’d submit that the “chauffeuring” phase is- and should be- more than what it seems. This is when a top agent will begin to understand the real needs and motivations of the client, as well as do the kind of active listening that a $10/hour functionary cannot perform. In fact, the tourguide function seems to me almost an admission on the part of my business that RE is a commodity…which, it most certainly is not.
Jmac 116
if you are serious about boston, then feel free to pick my brain i have lived up their, near the areas you are talking about
my sense is that in every town, there’s one or two real estate agents who sell a lot of homes and the rest are not serious and are lucky to get 1 or 2 sales per year.
Brits think the USA is in a Depression.
Food stamps are the symbol of poverty in the US. In the era of the credit crunch, a record 28 million Americans are now relying on them to survive – a sure sign the world’s richest country faces economic crisis
Disadvantaged Americans queue for aid in New York
By David Usborne in New York
Tuesday, 1 April 2008
We knew things were bad on Wall Street, but on Main Street it may be worse. Startling official statistics show that as a new economic recession stalks the United States, a record number of Americans will shortly be depending on food stamps just to feed themselves and their families.
Dismal projections by the Congressional Budget Office in Washington suggest that in the fiscal year starting in October, 28 million people in the US will be using government food stamps to buy essential groceries, the highest level since the food assistance programme was introduced in the 1960s.
The increase – from 26.5 million in 2007 – is due partly to recent efforts to increase public awareness of the programme and also a switch from paper coupons to electronic debit cards. But above all it is the pressures being exerted on ordinary Americans by an economy that is suddenly beset by troubles. Housing foreclosures, accelerating jobs losses and fast-rising prices all add to the squeeze.
Emblematic of the downturn until now has been the parades of houses seized in foreclosure all across the country, and myriad families separated from their homes. But now the crisis is starting to hit the country in its gut. Getting food on the table is a challenge many Americans are finding harder to meet. As a barometer of the country’s economic health, food stamp usage may not be perfect, but can certainly tell a story.
Michigan has been in its own mini-recession for years as its collapsing industrial base, particularly in the car industry, has cast more and more out of work. Now, one in eight residents of the state is on food stamps, double the level in 2000. “We have seen a dramatic increase in recent years, but we have also seen it climbing more in recent months,” Maureen Sorbet, a spokeswoman for Michigan’s programme, said. “It’s been increasing steadily. Without the programme, some families and kids would be going without.”
But the trend is not restricted to the rust-belt regions. Forty states are reporting increases in applications for the stamps, actually electronic cards that are filled automatically once a month by the government and are swiped by shoppers at the till, in the 12 months from December 2006. At least six states, including Florida, Arizona and Maryland, have had a 10 per cent increase in the past year.
In Rhode Island, the segment of the population on food stamps has risen by 18 per cent in two years. The food programme started 40 years ago when hunger was still a daily fact of life for many Americans. The recent switch from paper coupons to the plastic card system has helped remove some of the stigma associated with the food stamp programme. The card can be swiped as easily as a bank debit card. To qualify for the cards, Americans do not have to be exactly on the breadline. The programme is available to people whose earnings are just above the official poverty line. For Hubert Liepnieks, the card is a lifeline he could never afford to lose. Just out of prison, he sleeps in overnight shelters in Manhattan and uses the card at a Morgan Williams supermarket on East 23rd Street. Yesterday, he and his fiancée, Christine Schultz, who is in a wheelchair, shared one banana and a cup of coffee bought with the 82 cents left on it.
“They should be refilling it in the next three or four days,” Liepnieks says. At times, he admits, he and friends bargain with owners of the smaller grocery shops to trade the value of their cards for cash, although it is illegal. “It can be done. I get $7 back on $10.”
Richard Enright, the manager at this Morgan Williams, says the numbers of customers on food stamps has been steady but he expects that to rise soon. “In this location, it’s still mostly old people and people who have retired from city jobs on stamps,” he says. Food stamp money was designed to supplement what people could buy rather than covering all the costs of a family’s groceries. But the problem now, Mr Enright says, is that soaring prices are squeezing the value of the benefits.
“Last St Patrick’s Day, we were selling Irish soda bread for $1.99. This year it was $2.99. Prices are just spiralling up, because of the cost of gas trucking the food into the city and because of commodity prices. People complain, but I tell them it’s not my fault everything is more expensive.”
The US Department of Agriculture says the cost of feeding a low-income family of four has risen 6 per cent in 12 months. “The amount of food stamps per household hasn’t gone up with the food costs,” says Dayna Ballantyne, who runs a food bank in Des Moines, Iowa. “Our clients are finding they aren’t able to purchase food like they used to.”
And the next monthly job numbers, to be released this Friday, are likely to show 50,000 more jobs were lost nationwide in March, and the unemployment rate is up to perhaps 5 per cent.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/usa-2008-the-great-depression-803095.html
make (93)-
I’m in a good mood today. And, thanks for straightening out my priorities for me.
Go collect your rent now.
John (94)-
“I wish the housing market worked like the stock market”
Me, too. But, it doesn’t, and it won’t.
Given the market rally today there must be a sense of relief on Wall Street over the Fed interventions of the past few weeks and money seems to be flooding back into equities at the expense of Oil, Gold, Silver and other commodities.
Give it a few weeks after all it is April and earnings season and everything cannot be rosy in all of those balance sheets.
mac (98)-
Never, ever, ever, ever borrow from a 401k to buy a house.
Never, ever, ever.
If the urge gets too great, stab your hands with a steak knife.
And, YouTube Suze Orman…and let her tell you to never, ever do this.
Some interesting info on office jobs came out today. This data is available for the top 23 MSAs. It was compiled by Citigroup, economy.com, and Bureau of Labor Statistics.
New York (+1.2%) and Northern New Jersey (+0.4%) office employment was higher in February 2008 compared to February 2007.
Houston (+4.1%), America’s oil capital, enjoyed the strongest job growth by far. Orange County (-4.5%), the epicenter of the mortgage industry, and Detroit (-2.6%) fared the worst.
Office employment in New York and Northern New Jersey isn’t growing anymore, according to the month-over-month figures, but it isn’t crashing like Orange County or Detroit either.
vodka (104)-
“The amount of disgruntled discussion among the highly educated in the US appears to growing .”
Right you are, ket. The wifey and I do get out & socialize from time to time, and I can assure you that I’m not the only guy in my town who owns purloined, contraband combat munitions.
Only problem is, the other guys- just like me- don’t know how to shoot ’em or fix ’em.
TJ (109)-
I don’t think those cashiered mortgage guys have enough smarts to run a crack operation.
BC (113)-
LEH against the world, at 7.5%. Right.
From the FT:
Housing slump comes to the Hamptons
The US housing slump has arrived at the Hamptons, summer playground of the Manhattan elite.
In a sign that falling prices and home sales gluts are no longer limited to the nation’s declining rust-belt cities or bubble markets, prices for gilt-edged properties in East Hampton and Southampton have fallen sharply.
The Long Island resort towns, among the wealthiest and most well-connected in the US, experienced a boom between 1998 and 2007 when home values quadrupled.
“The downturn has caught up with the Hamptons,” said George Simpson, who runs Suffolk Research, a local real estate data company.
The three-month running median sales price of single-family homes in the two towns fell 19.2 per cent to $638,600 (€400,000, £320,000) between December and February, according to Suffolk Research. That is almost as much as the 19.3 per cent drop in home prices that Miami and Las Vegas, where the boom and bust in the housing markets has been most dramatic, suffered in the whole of last year, according to the S&P Case-Shiller house price indices.
Holiday homes have been among the hardest hit. Last year, sales of vacation property fell 31 per cent across the US, against a 10 per cent drop in sales of homes bought to live in, according to the National Association of Realtors.
Among those caught in the housing trap are three Bear Stearns executives rushing to offload properties after the collapse of the bank, according to a local estate agent.
Their properties, in the village of Bridgehampton, were listed at about $2m, $2.5m and $5m, the broker said. The priciest house has five bedrooms and a large swimming pool with a picnic table built into it.
“They are just normal oversized Hamptons homes . . . everyday summer houses for these guys at Bear Stearns,” said the broker. “They hit hard times and decided to cut their losses.”
Let me guess, Jersey Shore still strong?
scribe (118)-
Thanks, but you have to give yourself credit for having interviewed the dozen agents. If everybody treated it as a job interview (which it truly is), my industry would get cleaned up, pronto.
Unfortunately, I think a segment of the public is looking for the kind of agent who will confirm their personal prejudgments and biases against the industry. If one expects incompetence, it’s easily found.
Ok, since there are so many tax guys on line, maybe you know the answer to my question. I bought a few corporate bonds in December as I though the Fed was going to cut in January and I paid accured interest on the bonds. Not one of the bonds paid interest in 2007 since I bought in December. The broker dealer put on the statement the accrual amounts on my 2007 tax statement.
Can I use those accrued interest I paid in 2007 on the new bonds to offset interest I earned on other taxable bonds in 2007? Or do I have to wait until those bonds pay interest in 2008 and them back off the accrued interest paid in December 2007? Funny I can’t find the answer in the IRS website and it would seem a pretty common thing.
from msnbc:
Real estate brokers and local authorities say once-proud homes coast-to-coast are being stripped for copper, aluminum, and brass by thieves. Much of it ends up with scrap metal traders who say nearly all copper gets shipped overseas, much of it to China and India.
In areas hit hardest by foreclosures, such as the Slavic Village neighborhood of Cleveland, Ohio, copper and other metals used in plumbing, heating systems and telephone lines are now more valuable than some homes.
Okay, this seller should panic: MLS # 2731419
House comes on the market 10/05. A small bungalow on
a main street in Dumont. 2 bedrooms, one bath.
Was elderly owned, needs lots of work.
Listed at $299,000
Sold at $285,000
House comes back on the market a few months later 6/2006
Freshly painted shingles and windows, new kitchen, new bath
Listed at $365,000
Sold at $400,000
Comes back on the market 12/2006, listed at $439,000
(new owner didnt do anything to it) No one bites.
Comes back on the market 4/2007 with siding and new windows
Listed at $495,000
…….
No one bites.
5/2007 $475,000 …then reduced to $449,000
…….
No one bites
8/2007 up for rent at $1700 a month
8/2007 listed at $439,000, reduced to $365,000
MLS # 2731419
taxes: 7,200/yr
Oooooopppps!!
Clott 140,
get my e-mail from JB I may be able to help you if you like
Grim,
Cousin rents in spring lake and is in commercial real estate. He is now looking to buy selectively in town and is absolutely amazed at what is available. Even the gold coast streets nearer to the beach are seeing large price reductions. He told me over Easter dinner that prices are indeed coming down.
clott 140,
for educational purposes only of course
Clot [142],
Junk bond. What the hey, if it fails the fed can borrow from the ECB, pass it on to Merrill and they can rescue them for $2.00. The ECB bills our Treasury. Capitalism at its best.
Here is another ridiculous listing, from a name familiar to you all. This is Donald’s listing (aka Ducky, the regular troll on this blog).
NJ MLS 2633176
http://www.realtyexpress.info/MyHomeDtl.asp?HomeID=409097&P=28
bought for $840,000 in 2005.
dream, dream, dream, dre-ee-ee-ee-eem
Wall Street Castles Made of Sand
It’s April Fools’ Day, but this is no joke: Traders are embracing massive write-downs from financial firms UBS and Deutsche Bank, National City’s plans to sell itself, and Lehman’s convertible offering as another sign the worst is over for financials.
The problem with this line of thinking is that it’s been tried repeatedly in the past year, with lousy results. Wasn’t the third quarter supposed to be the “kitchen-sink quarter” for the financials, and then the fourth?
The grim reality is that we seem no closer to the end of the write-down parade than we were six months ago. Goldman Sachs recently estimated Wall Street firms will ultimately write down as much as $460 billion in credit losses, meaning the process isn’t even halfway over yet.
With so many traders eager to embrace the end of this crisis period, scant few are willing to acknowledge another harsh fact: The financial firms’ “blockbuster” earnings of the prior five years were castles made of sand.
Greetings,
Can anyone with access provide a history of the following?
MLS#2464185
2087 Westfield Ave.
Scotch Plains, NJ
Much appreciated.
I’m looking at the same house listed twice on realtor.com; one listing says it has 4 bedrooms and the other says it has 3 bedrooms. Just another example why anything associated with the acronym “NAR” s*cks and is designed to pilfer, cheat, con and swindle people.
In case you don’t believe me, here are the MLS ID#s:
2749063
2467800
too much video games?
“Nine third grade students suspended at Center Elementary in Waycross for an alleged plot to attack their teacher”
http://www.firstcoastnews.com/news/topstories/news-article.aspx?storyid=106016
That’s nothing bi,
http://www.fox19.com/Global/story.asp?S=8083860&nav=menu63_2
They should put this disclaimer in big letters on all mortgage.
Note that over the holding periods of decades, inflation-adjusted house prices have increased less than 1% per year.
Robert Shiller shows that over long periods, inflation adjusted U.S. home prices increased 0.4% per year from 1890–2004, and 0.7% per year from 1940–2004.
Heard this Todd Buchholz piece on WNYC this morning:
Reward responsibility, not risk
With Congress back in session, the issue of homeowners struggling from subprime is back on the table. One proposal would force mortgage lenders to refinance bad loans. But commentator Todd Buchholz says not so fast.
http://marketplace.publicradio.org/display/web/2008/04/01/buchholz_commentary/
You know what, this is the same shlt that al queda tries to use to say they’re noble revolutionaries rather than a bunch of dirtbag terrorists. Unlike the situation with the revolt against the british, there’s nothing in contemporary society to revolt over. You, Clod and others are simply just mad about absolutely nothing and are part of the hate America first crowd. I can’t understand what the hell you guys are even mad about. Hell, I’m disappointed with the way things have gone on the real estate front, but you don’t see me up in here talking about brandishing a damn firearm or a grenade against some imaginary evil person in the goverment. Clod is constantly railing against any and everything that is organized. Look at his rant against his own profession today.
He just wants to revolt just for the sake of revolting. There’s no other purpose. He’s a self described advocate of anarchy for no other purpose than just to have disorder.
-104 (Kettle)
Re, do you know the history of the founding of this county? Do you realize that the description you used is exactly what people considered the founders of the USA???? change is not brought about by the meek or by the entranced consumer class. Any serious change in the US whether a revolution of some sort or of another form will follow the historical path. That path is the “intellectuals” of the society become disillusioned and restless first and then this groups leads the general population.
This board is generally representative of the “intellectual” segment of the US as opposed to the Joe sixpack segment. Clott may be more accurate then he realizes. The amount of disgruntled discussion among the highly educated in the US appears to growing .
chaos lover
160…I am disapointed that tax money goes to fund wasteful and unjust wars….we have leveraged our children’s future for nothing…and that dissent is being called ‘unpatriotic’….someone has not been paying attention…..
It would seem, that empty barrels do indeed, make the most noise.
Hey, Citibank’s website is down for “4 or 5 hours”. Did they not pay their ISP?
I may actually have to get out of my chair to do something. Unheard of.
The “unpatriotic” thing is something I never could understand. I have never seen or heard civilians being called unpatriotic based on thier Iraq opinions.
…me thinks it stems from the arrogance of Bush saying “either for us or against us”
Tell me, what the hell were we supposed to do when we were attacked? Sit back and sing “woe is me”? Try to understand those who did the deed? What?? Are we supposed to protect ourselves or not?
You guys kill me with all this crying about the war. Close your eyes if you have to while our military does what it needs to do to protect us. You ever think about why there’s been no other attack? Could it possibly be that the war has been a deterent?
Essex Says:
April 1st, 2008 at 1:59 pm
160…I am disapointed that tax money goes to fund wasteful and unjust wars….we have leveraged our children’s future for nothing…and that dissent is being called ‘unpatriotic’….someone has not been paying attention…..
re #160
reinvestor: you need help!
Allendale
SLD 53 FOREST RD $510,000 7/22/1999
SLD 53 FOREST RD $639,000 6/28/2002
SLD 53 FOREST RD $850,000 8/27/2007
ACT 53 FOREST RD $869,000 10/16/2007
PCH 53 FOREST RD $819,000 11/6/2007
PCH 53 FOREST RD $779,000 11/29/2007
PCH 53 FOREST RD $749,000 2/13/2008
SLD 53 FOREST RD $739,000 3/31/2008
RE:
Attacking Iraq after Al Queda (Saudi Arabia) attacked the WTC is akin to calling bubble bloggers unpatriotic housing terrorists.
reinvestor101 – If you were writing for Goebbels you would have been shot by now.
LOL @ You, Clod and others are simply just mad about absolutely nothing and are part of the hate America first crowd.
Would it be okay if he hated America 2d? Or perhaps 5th?
“Office employment in New York and Northern New Jersey isn’t growing anymore, according to the month-over-month figures, but it isn’t crashing like Orange County or Detroit either.”
Yet
Way OT
Rehandout(101) points out that clott does not appear to like organization and clott has mentioned anarchy a few times. I would like to point out that if we were smart we might consider a hive society. Creatures that use hive organization do not have a leader, just a set of rules that all members follow. Hive environments are a classic study in complexity, as a simple set of rules when followed by all members of the group gives rise to highly complex societies that demonstrate a level of intelligent that is decidedly greater then any of the individual members of the society. So it seems that the people who feel you need a complex organization to run a society are wrong. complexity arises from simplicity. A few experiments where researchers have had a small group of people follow a set of “hive” rules have shown the same characteristics, complexity develops quickly and the group is highly efficient, all without a central leader. A nice side effect is that with no centralized leadership, such a society is highly resistant to a direct attack, as there is no leader/leadership to destroy….
Kettle1:
You just described the Borg.
http://www.coldwellbankermoves.com/BrandedHome.aspx?IsBranded=1&AgentID=1110&TemplateID=6
This snakeoil NJ Realtor is everything I dislike about realtors. My friend got his bio in a junk e-mail he is spamming around.
Kettle,
I would argue that it is unfortunately human nature (weakness) to want power. Some people need it and will go for it at all costs, thus destroying the hive eventually.
Interesting concept.
I hate people who hate america!!!! You are either with us or against us!!!!
Actually if I was President I would pay off the subprime mortgage of any 18-49 year old man in exchange for a combat tour in IRAQ/IRAN. I could clean the arabs clocks, end the war, lower gas prices, lower unemployement and boost real estate. Plus I would organize a three way iron cage death match for Obama, McCain and Hillery and the winner could be my VP.
And the NAR
Stu Says:
April 1st, 2008 at 2:27 pm
Kettle1:
You just described the Borg.
I just spent the better part of a two weeks car shopping during lunch. I have no love or great hate for salespeople of any fashion but in this day and age why do I need to deal with salespeople when buying a car?
Why can’t I just order what I want on the internet and have it show up a few days later. Whatever happend to that promise of ordering cars online?
Why in this day and age do I still need to play psychological warfare with someone who only sees me as his next mortgage payment?
53 FOREST RD ALLENDALE
I’ll be driving by this afternoon. People still buying in Allendale. Seen as a hot town with great schools…a Town living on it’s reputation if you ask me. High taxes. Decent services.
143 grim
“normal oversized”
That’s my new catch-phrase!
#180 Sean
http://www.carsdirect.com
Salespeople hate them as they see cars heading off from the dealership with no commission on them
#180
I’m down with this idea. Realtor.com should add a shopping cart function, too.
In fact, I’m about to post an ad on Craigslist telling sellers to make ME an offer.
Best house and location with lowest price wins the auction for the gainfully employed newlywed Dinky couple to take your house off your hands!
Look at the prices of REOs owned by FNMA, talking about discounts.
http://www.fanniemae.com/reoSearchApplication/fanniemae/reoSearch.jsp?p=Fannie+Mae-Owned+Property+Search
Laurie Says:
April 1st, 2008 at 2:42 pm
53 FOREST RD ALLENDALE
I’ll be driving by this afternoon.
You do realize it sold?
Clot said:
“However, I’d submit that the “chauffeuring” phase is- and should be- more than what it seems. This is when a top agent will begin to understand the real needs and motivations of the client, as well as do the kind of active listening that a $10/hour functionary cannot perform. In fact, the tourguide function seems to me almost an admission on the part of my business that RE is a commodity…which, it most certainly is not.”
Funny you should mention this… I accompanied a friend on Sunday to look at condos via open houses. She is just in the prelimnary stages of looking and trying to get a handle on what she wants. I was the designated note-taker and question-asker so she could get the “feel” of the place. (Because so much of whether a house is right for a person is whether it FEELS right.) Afterwards she talked about what she liked about each place and what she didn’t like — and at the end we had drawn up a pretty good idea of what she’s looking for.
It seemed to me that if there are people who get paid for helping you go through your stuff before moving, and people who get paid to organize your closet, there ought to be a business there in being a “professional real estate kibitzer.” This is a person who has no persona agenda about whether you buy or not or what community you buy into or how close you live to that person; and gets paid either via a flat fee or by the hour, so this person has no vested interest in getting you to like a more expensive place.
It’s something a good realtor would do, but perhaps at this point it could be separated from that function.
Great. We can solve all our societal problems just by becoming a bunch of damn bees.
Your azz needs to be stung for posting that.
kettle1 Says:
April 1st, 2008 at 2:24 pm
Way OT
Rehandout(101) points out that clott does not appear to like organization and clott has mentioned anarchy a few times. I would like to point out that if we were smart we might consider a hive society. Creatures that use hive organization do not have a leader, just a set of rules that all members follow. Hive environments are a classic study in complexity, as a simple set of rules when followed by all members of the group gives rise to highly complex societies that demonstrate a level of intelligent that is decidedly greater then any of the individual members of the society. So it seems that the people who feel you need a complex organization to run a society are wrong. complexity arises from simplicity. A few experiments where researchers have had a small group of people follow a set of “hive” rules have shown the same characteristics, complexity develops quickly and the group is highly efficient, all without a central leader. A nice side effect is that with no centralized leadership, such a society is highly resistant to a direct attack, as there is no leader/leadership to destroy….
He’s a self described advocate of anarchy for no other purpose than just to have disorder.
reinvestor,
It pains me when you talk. You seriously need to take a class on proper debate and while your at it read a book and take an IQ test and post it on this board.
Anarchy does not imply disorder. The lack of government in the presence of idiots who need their hands held is the sole reason why government exists.
Basically, we will always have a portion of the population comprised of reinvestor101 crybaby idiots running around that can not govern or think for themselves.
Wall Street began the second quarter with a big rally Tuesday as investors rushed back into stocks amid optimism that the worst of the credit crisis has passed and that the economy is faring better than expected. Yahoo!Finance
Wow, I am glad the worst is over and it only took 1 day to come to the realization.
Now if only we can somehow “write down” unemployment and inflation and make everyone feel better.
up 300 on bad news.. how much will it be up on good news? I think we may have better chances at the slots. can you short the slots?
“Deutsche Bank to Writedown only $3.9 billion. As such, it’s stock price is up only 3%. Note to CEO: Go Get a Bigger Writedown!”
“Now if only we can somehow “write down” unemployment and inflation and make everyone feel better.”
TJ,
Problem solved; BLS, birth/death stats and a new blackbox, hedonics, for CPI. Pop the champagne.
recrackhead101 –
Every empire ends when they overextend themselves. Rome fell due to bankruptcy, not a military defeat. The USSR crumbled in part because their invasion of Afghanistan bled them to death by a thousand cuts. We’re doing the same thing that all empires do by engaging in costly overseas adventures. Bin Laden goaded us into attacking Iraq. We have a large standing army and a gov’t dominated by technocrats from defense suppliers. We would have saved ourselves a lot of hassle if we gave Al Qaeda some money to set up a country of their own so we could have something to sic our Stealth bombers on. Like most Americans I love this country and if attacked, we should respond. The way to get bin Laden is with special operations with people who don’t officially exist, not invading Iraq and waterboarding every male aged 18-50. The Iraq war is the biggest giveaway in recorded history to military suppliers, packaged and labeled with the American flag for the sheeple to absorb.
So, recrackhead, when your dollars are worthless, taxes are at 90% and up, and when this country is rendered impotent in the face of a real threat, remember how good it felt to turn on Fox News and watch an embedded reporter relay a staged success story from a village near Basra or wherever.
Xmas came early..
New York Fed to Provide Nationwide U.S. Subprime, Alt-A Loan Data
The Federal Reserve announced Tuesday that it will provide a set of maps and data illustrating subprime and alt-A mortgage loan conditions across the U.S. on the New York Fed Bank website.
The maps, maintained by the New York Fed, will display regional variations in the condition of securitized, owner-occupied subprime and alt-A mortgage loans.
The Fed suggested the data resource may be used to identify future foreclosure “hotspots”, which may assist community groups to “mobilize resources to bring financial counselling to at-risk homeowners.”
The maps show a variety of information for each state and most counties and ZIP codes in the United States, including but not limited to: density of loans per 1,000 housing units, loans in foreclosure, real-estate owned loans, the share of adjustable-rate loans, those in current payment status as well as 90-plus days delinquent and in foreclosure, and other data regarding repayment and loan interest rate reset status.
Accompanying data tables report further statistics for states, the Fed noted. The maps and data are drawn from the First American Core Logic, Loan Performance Data loan level data set, and more information is available in technical appendices to the map and tables.
The data will be available at http://www.newyorkfed.org/mortgagemaps/
I think the market is playing a cruel April Fools joke on us. Tommorrow, we will find that what appears to be positive was actually negative.
I can hope?
196- Stu#:
“Hope” is all i have looking at my portfolio :).
Yes, we can!!
Try nailing a seat here if you want to impress a date. Hardest seat to get in a restaurant in NYC.
Ko, in Manhattan’s East Village, is by reservation only. Tasting menu $85 with wine pairing an additonal $50.
Bookings are not taken over the phone or in person. Aspirants use the online “Ko reservation system,” where you must register your e-mail address and submit a credit card number — in order to “thwart reservation scalpers.” What’s more, you must “show ID that matches your reservation info when you come in to eat.”
Another instruction: You’re asked to print out your e-mail confirmation and “bring it with you.” If Momofuku could require visas and stamp your passport, it probably would.
Ko is at 163 First Ave., between 10th and 11th streets. Information: http://www.momofuku.com/.
uninvestor101-
if the US is attacked by Malaysian terrorists who trained in Indonesia, can the US occupy Japan?
more importantly, do you know the difference?
Free 10K anyone?
The city on Tuesday will open a foreclosure assistance center in partnership with the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development to help homeowners renegotiate mortgage payments, repair damaged credit, and, in some cases, provide a direct payment of $10,000 to people behind on their loans.
http://money.cnn.com/2008/03/31/real_estate/West_Palm.ap/
Talk about a local Tax Payer Bailout. Why don’t they just get the Fed pick up the bill. Didn’t they learn from Jamie Dimon?
Stu (153)-
Kitchen-sink quarter?
Yeah. If you look at it as though the kitchen sink is full of the same kind of stuff as the kitchen sink in Silence of the Lambs scene where Buffalo Bill is wearing night vision goggles.
Jim Cramer called bottom. With all the bailing out about to happen, he may be right. Props.
I think that anyone who takes a bailout absent a showing of fraud on the part of their lender should be declared incompetant going forward such that any contract they enter into is unenforceable.
Tard (160)-
“…but you don’t see me up in here talking about brandishing a damn firearm or a grenade against some imaginary evil person in the goverment. Clod is constantly railing against any and everything that is organized.”
The evil people are real, not imagined.
I’m still not asking for handouts or welfare. You are.
Being against any and every thing that is organized is what anarchism is. Duh.
The scary thing about Recrybaby is that he sounds quit a bit like one of my more rabid family members…. a devout foxneswite themselves who is not thinks bush should be coronated for saving us from the big bad al qeada and really believes that there is nothing wrong with the government intruding into your personal life. “you shouldnt care about government spying if you dont have anythig to hide”
BIG (166)-
The problem is, Bush is most decidedly against us.
# Clotpoll Says:
April 1st, 2008 at 12:14 pm
Dawg (83)-
The bar to entry in RE cannot be lower. Fog a mirror is the standard.
Any number of appropriators, aggregators and leeches (i.e, Foxtons) have been given free rein to join the RE party. The common result? They get smashed on the punch, barf themselves and get carried out on their backs.
=====================================
They still add little to no value to the transaction.
And there still is a barrier to entry in terms of hassle, time, etc. Anyone should be able to show and sell a house, just like you would sell a car. Should it be illegal to sell a used car without a license?
Wait until the use of the Internet to house shop becomes so widespread that the MLS is opened up to everyone. Look it up yourself, go see it yourself, and get an inspector and lawyer to take care of the complicated stuff. Buyers and sellers do not need realtors’ services.
Sean (171)-
I think he’s the illegitimate love child of Goebbels and Mussolini’s daughter.
Imus 202,
Personal opinion here, but we are no were near the bottom, This is just a breather my friend!
vodka (174)-
My guess is that you lost Tard about two sentences into that one.
Cool stuff. My feeling is, give me a good fence, a couple of guns and a tough dog. Then, leave me the f- alone.
Jill (187)-
If it’s paid by the hour- or flat fee- why would anyone with real ability take the job?
People who sell things and are good at it work 100% for commission for a reason. Take away the incentive, and the talent goes elsewhere.
TJ (190)-
Do you get the feeling there’s a whiteboard somewhere in the PPT’s clubhouse that has today’s date written on it, followed by the phrase “worst is over”?
Today’s buyers are most assuredly April fools.
They still add little to no value to the transaction.
I think this site adds more value than most agents, however, buyers and sellers rarely click the little button at the top right of the page.
They’ll gladly compensate agents with commissions in the 4 and 5 figure range, but I can’t seem to muster up the handful of dollars it takes to break even on my costs.
Go figure.
Just bought more Gold.
I really hope EuroPac is right about this otherwise I’m gonna walk into the Fox studio and choke Peter Schiff myself.
If Gold crahes I can turn it into countertops for my kitchen in the condo that I’ll Foreclose on.
If I actually loose money on my investment will uncle Bennie bail me out?
JB [213],
I’ll never understand this?
Just a bunch, majority, of subprime bloggers sucking up AAA info.
New Providence Success Story
October 2005, near the top of the market, I sold my 3 BR cape starter house for $489k to 1st time homebuyers from NYC. I had paid $280k for the house in 1999. The buyers scraped together 10% downpayment of $49k and took out 1st and second mortgages totalling $450k. They had purchased .19 acres of the american dream. They had mom move in to take care of their child. They both commuted to the city in a vailiant effort to make the mortgage payment. Property taxes went up and the ARM apparently reset. In early 2008 they threw in the towel with plans to me to greener and cheaper pastures in Texas. They listed the home for the preposterous sum of $509k. They apparently were not familiar with this website and did not realize that armagedden was upon us. How could they have the audacity to list the home for $20k more than the purchase price. With a snicker I was prepared to watch the home sit and wait for disaster to set in. Based on the info constantly provided by this site, the sellers would be unable to unload this albatross and foreclosure was around the corner. Soon the housing plague would spread and other homes on the street would be boarded up and/or turn into crack houses. During the holiest of holy weeks, however, the house sold at or near the preposterous asking price. How could this be? Could the people on this site possible be wrong?
211
Clot,
People who are great at Sales have no business being into RE. This is exactly the problem. Sell sell sell.
http://www.newyorkfed.org/mortgagemaps/
NJ NONPRIME Mortgage condition
Share ARMs 69%
Share 90 days delinquent 8.50
Share in Foreclosure 11.50
Median Combined LTV – 83%
Share Low or no doc 43%
Share ARMs resetting in 12 mos 38%
Share late payment last 12 mos 51%
make [214],
When you are ready to bail, wake me up.
218…
Yikes!!!!!!!!
Dawg (207)-
Two questions:
1. Would you like to buy a house through, say, a bank teller who makes $12/hour?
2. “Experts” have claimed since 1995 that the Internet- and online transaction platforms- would become the dominant method of purchasing RE. It’s been 13 years now, all the technology is in place, cyber closings happen all the time for refis, and electronic signatures are recognized in all 50 states as valid…how many more years do you think it will take for people to gravitate to this? BTW, NOBODY currently buys real estate this way.
219, BC,
elaborate.
#178
Can you show me Iraq on the map or globe? Then show me a Zimbabwe or Libearia on the map. If you can’t, you shouldn’t deserve to talk here.
All the soldiers are sent to procure this mess after all. Would the oil climb so high, if Al Gore was president and dealt with Taliban and Al Qaida in Afghanistan instead of Iraq.
Bush and company lubricated the profit wheel of big oil, while you and your friends are under the fake paranoia. Where are your Euro friends helping you out in the currency wars? Where are your buddies when the rich of the US distributed their wealth globally?
This country deserved this mess, since they twice elected a destructive ideology to the highest office.
about 218 –
I think ‘share’ refers to the subprime market. The numbers are for subprime mortgages only.
make (217)-
Yeah. Disintermediate the whole thing, open it up to whoever wants to play, and let the strong destroy the weak.
Good plan there.
For somebody who talks a lot about making money, you sure have a problem with the best way of doing it. Did you inherit your fortune?
# Clotpoll Says:
April 1st, 2008 at 4:29 pm
Dawg (207)-
Two questions:
1. Would you like to buy a house through, say, a bank teller who makes $12/hour?
2. “Experts” have claimed since 1995 that the Internet- and online transaction platforms- would become the dominant method of purchasing RE. It’s been 13 years now, all the technology is in place, cyber closings happen all the time for refis, and electronic signatures are recognized in all 50 states as valid…how many more years do you think it will take for people to gravitate to this? BTW, NOBODY currently buys real estate this way.
==================================
1. No, I’d buy it myself.
2. I’d say 3-5 years. The Internet has been around for decades. People have only recently started renting movies online through downloads.
It’s like the NYSE – Why pay salaries and benefits for all those guys wearing vests when you have Arca? 10 years ago, Arca wasn’t around, even though the Internet was. The NYSE trading floor will eventually go away. So will realtors’ 6% commissions once people realize they are unnecessary.
#216 You silly man,
Even if your story is true, that’s just one example of a house selling at the asking price. It doesn’t make Case-Schiller or even the NAR’s housing indices wrong. Both agree that residential real estate is going down the tubes.
How could this be? Could the people on this site possible be wrong?
King,
Do you have an MLS number so that we can verify this earth shattering story?
KingCastle Says:
April 1st, 2008 at 4:28 pm
New Providence Success Story October 2005, near the top of the market, I sold my 3 BR cape starter house for $489k to 1st time homebuyers from NYC. I had paid $280k for the house in 1999. The buyers scraped together 10% downpayment of $49k and took out 1st and second mortgages totalling $450k. They had purchased .19 acres of the american dream. They had mom move in to take care of their child. They both commuted to the city in a vailiant effort to make the mortgage payment. Property taxes went up and the ARM apparently reset. In early 2008 they threw in the towel with plans to me to greener and cheaper pastures in Texas. They listed the home for the preposterous sum of $509k. They apparently were not familiar with this website and did not realize that armagedden was upon us. How could they have the audacity to list the home for $20k more than the purchase price. With a snicker I was prepared to watch the home sit and wait for disaster to set in. Based on the info constantly provided by this site, the sellers would be unable to unload this albatross and foreclosure was around the corner. Soon the housing plague would spread and other homes on the street would be boarded up and/or turn into crack houses. During the holiest of holy weeks, however, the house sold at or near the preposterous asking price. How could this be? Could the people on this site possible be wrong?
MLS # please…..
King: any chance you underpriced it in 2005? Just saying….
KC-
Let’s say they sold for 500k. Subtract a realtor’s commission and they’re down to 470k, which is 19 grand less than they paid for it. Never mind that a dollar is worth less today than in 2005. In nominal terms they’ve lost a little money. In real terms they’ve lost more money. I have no wish for gloom and despair to reign supreme. I just want a real estate purchase to go back to being a normal part of life and not like placing down a bet at a casino.
Clotpol the only reason the internet has not taken off is that MLS fiercely guards access to MLS. In the cars analogy, if you go to cars.com, KBB.com, carsdirect.com, the little guy can sell his car from his driveway with equal ease as a dealer. Do the majority of people try to sell their own car, of course not. But realtors can’t brag about their selling skills if they are limiting competition and shuting out the little guy and non capital R realtors. In reality I would love a day trading approach to home sales. For $500 bucks straight up I get access to your office voice mail, e-mail and can meet clients there and I can sell my own house. Give me a god damm gold jacket, Being a realtor is a low paid job and a lot of headaches and I would never want to do it for a living . Plus it is the ethical equivalent of the used car salesmen. I like to help the little guy, the first time buyer, the newlwed couple who is having their first child. Working for the seller I would be sticking the little guy with over priced, run down crap. That would make me a success in the Realtor world.
VMC –
Maybe you are silly. DOW is up 200++ points today. In good areas near commuting lines RE is holding up. Summit is much stronger than NP. I do not have MLS #. Address is 19 Salem RD.
King, you would be a good realtor, even I don’t sell overpriced stuff to young broke couples with a baby on the way. I keep thinking I will be burnt in Hell for eternity. Last house I did sell was an overpriced piece of junk and thank God some souless flipper was the high bidder so I could sleep at night.
Dawg (226)-
You have no clue. Keep smashing your head against the wall until one comes to you.
I’m going to guess you’re a mediocre engineer that has a hard time forming interpersonal relationships. It’s tough for folks like you to find people who can truly appreciate your brilliant simplicity.
Housing is not a mark-to-market commodity. Just because an electronic transaction platform exists does not mean people will use it. Give your platform all the back-office functions and bells/whistles you want…Mr. & Mrs. Flintstone want to tour the home, get advice from somebody who’s on their side and NOT have to deal with the seller face-to-face.
King,
19 Salem Road. Still has yet to close. Digging deeper.
For somebody who talks a lot about making money, you sure have a problem with the best way of doing it. Did you inherit your fortune?
Clot,
You know damn well that I haven’t made a dime in the last two years and that I’m retired. Like Michael I’m itching for a comeback,I even did a little bidding last night but stopped myself.
A good realtor doesn’t mind making a smaller commish for the long term health of the buyer. There is a fine line between Capitalism and Ethics, while it OK to cross it from time to time it’s not OK to make a living on the other side.
and I thought that you were different!
2489140
http://tax1.co.monmouth.nj.us/cgi-bin/m4.cgi?&district=2011&block=276&lot=8&qual=
Chicago –
You could be right. Maybe I underpriced it. Maybe I was sucked in by all of the negativity surrounding this site. In any event, i felt that 75% increase in 6 yrs was pretty good. i didn’t want to be a pig and wanted to move the home quickly. They paid ask. How could a 3 br cape on.19 of an acre possibly be worth more than $489k.
MLS #?
John –
I didn’t put a gun to their head and force them to buy. simply did a market analysis and made a consistent demand. the home sol in a month. I have four kids (3 at the time) and needed a bigger house. my priority is to my family.
John (232)-
“I like to help the little guy, the first time buyer, the newlwed couple who is having their first child. Working for the seller I would be sticking the little guy with over priced, run down crap.”
Glad to see you have a system of figuring out who deserves to win and lose in RE transactions. Forget about markets, fiduciary duties, all that stuff…
Shouldn’t that read, “Tsilver Tsunami”?
Clotpoll Says:
April 1st, 2008 at 4:48 pm
Dawg (226)-
You have no clue. Keep smashing your head against the wall until one comes to you.
I’m going to guess you’re a mediocre engineer that has a hard time forming interpersonal relationships. It’s tough for folks like you to find people who can truly appreciate your brilliant simplicity.
======================================
Dude, I can’t argue with that. You’ve really got my number.
make (237)-
“A good realtor doesn’t mind making a smaller commish for the long term health of the buyer.”
Please point to an example of where I’ve said otherwise. I work in low price ranges and with first-time buyers a lot, as a matter of fact.
It amazes me how the bulls will look for the bright side of ANYTHING in this environment. We’re looking down the tunnel at a freight train of a credit crunch, recession, housing crisis, and a currency crisis and they all follow each other like lemmings over the cliff.
Someone was just on CNBC(3:45ish) claiming that everything was GREAT–foreclosed properties are apparently selling so fast, they’ll be gone by July. And the banks who wrote 70% off are actually collecting 50%, so they’ll be in the black momentarily.
King (241)-
Evidently, there are some here who’d like to see a “save me from myself” feature built into every RE transaction.
chifi,
MLS 2489140
http://tax1.co.monmouth.nj.us/cgi-bin/m4.cgi?&district=2011&block=276&lot=8&qual=
http://php.app.com/websr1a07/results.php?county=Union&muniprop=New+Providence+Boro&deed_yr=%25&location_num=19&location_st=salem&granteename=&grantorname=&Submit3=Submit&classcd=%25&sale_rpt=%3E%3D0&max1=%3C%3D1000000000
Dawg,
My travel agent says the same thing. Mrs Flintstone wants advice at which hotel to stay, how and when to fly, what activities to do and so on.
Internet and tech has decimated that industry. He still has a job cause he did right buy his clients over the years who are now old and don’t like change.
How many new jobs to you see in travel? Buying a house is more serious then buying a vacation so it has to take longer but it will happen.
Make [222],
When you bail, ring me, I’ll buy.
while you guys are at it, why not check home on springfield ave in NP (located around the corner from my new house) that also sold very quicky. I think ask was around $535k. “All RE is local.” From what I have seen in Summit and NP things are not that bad.
Clot:
You spend a lot of time here.
On the one hand, it’s time well spent learning stuff that might benefit clients and sales personnel who report to you. On the other hand, you spend a lot of time here being, well, you.
Make what you wish of that conclusion.
Chifi,
MLS #2489140
http://tax1.co.monmouth.nj.us/cgi-bin/m4.cgi?&district=2011&block=276&lot=8&qual=
King,
509 – 6% commission = 479
479 + 2.5 years of inflation (3% annual) =
455K or roughly 10% loss from 2005
# make money Says:
April 1st, 2008 at 4:58 pm
Dawg,
My travel agent says the same thing. Mrs Flintstone wants advice at which hotel to stay, how and when to fly, what activities to do and so on.
Internet and tech has decimated that industry. He still has a job cause he did right buy his clients over the years who are now old and don’t like change.
How many new jobs to you see in travel? Buying a house is more serious then buying a vacation so it has to take longer but it will happen.
==============================
I know. Clot’s just mad because I’m right, and because I have a cooler name.
19 Salem is still under contract, how do we know what it closed at?
It was supposed to close on 3/7, it is now 4/1.
Clot,
If it’s paid by the hour- or flat fee- why would anyone with real ability take the job?
People who sell things and are good at it work 100% for commission for a reason. Take away the incentive, and the talent goes elsewhere.
Let me see you, Doctors, Architects, Accountants, who work on a yearly salary are NOT talented and they couldn’t cut it in Real Estate.
just shaking my head in disbelief.
TJ –
according to this site 20% reduction in price. Therefore, according to you – home is not worth more than $400k. This simply is not the case. In good towns along the train lines armageddon has not occured. Contrary to your hopes and wishes, armageddon will not occur.
116 JMac
I am from there. Born in Cambridge, lived in all three, and had family in all three towns. All nice towns, though all have their rougher spots. Also very upscale and very expensive. cheapest is somerville and it gets cheaper away from the Red Line stops, the Cambridge and Arlington lines and Tufts. Cambridge is pretty much expensive everywhere now, except maybe along Rindge Ave. and Mass Ave West. Central Sq. and East Cambridge used to be cheap but not anymore. Watertown more bucolic and understated upscale. Cheapest near the Waltham line or Western Ave., or east of Wat. Sq. toward the Arsenal Mall. Most Expensive near Belmont Line, or really anywhere north of Mt. Auburn St.
Good luck getting in–these are desirable digs and have been for a long time.
Grim –
You know i am a straight shoter. If I knew the purchase price I would tell you. Maybe to your delight the deal will fall through and the sherrifs will eventually padlock the door.
BC,
I’m stubborn and coccky. It’s my personality. Plus I hate being wrong.
I’ts gonna be long before I bail. Plus you know when I got in so I’m still on the Green.
the 1 yr Swiss Francs CD are starting to mature. I love it.
I was just joking with Schiff choking thing.
Clotpoll Says:
Would you like to buy a house through, say, a bank teller who makes $12/hour?
In all fairness, how many realtors even make that? Most people with an active RE license can’t even sell house one.
#250 King
535K on a busy street for what is probably a 2 or 3 bed, 1.5 ba. I suppose. Is that good for NP?
Higher end though may be hurting. I was looking at a split at around 749. Following week, 2 comps come on 100k less.
Word on NP is good schools, but Union County tax bomb is ticking loudly. Would only come if I could lowball.
King I would have sold it too!!
Maybe to your delight the deal will fall through and the sherrifs will eventually padlock the door.
You say that like I have something to gain here.
By the way, they remodeled the master bath, you should probably take that into account as well.
“Watertown more bucolic and understated upscale.”
By the rivers of Watertown we sat down and wept, when we remembered Boston
– William Billings
“I know. Clot’s just mad because I’m right, and because I have a cooler name.”
C-Dawg – jest don’t let ‘im call ya C-Spot (that works in several ways, ya see…)
make (255)-
Why don’t you stop with the straw man and address what I’m saying?
People who sell things and do it well do it because it is a great way to make a ton of money and have some control over who you work with and when you work.
What I didn’t write was something that disparages professionals who make a high salary. There was no intent to disparage anyone.
Am I reading this right: you came here to brag about their double-digit haircut?
By the way, they remodeled the master bath, you should probably take that into account as well.
There you go, using all those ‘facts’ again…
All this Beantown talk;
For Boston, for Boston,
We sing our proud refrain!
For Boston, for Boston,
‘Tis Wisdom’s earthly fane.
For here all are one
And their hearts are true,
And the towers on the Heights
Reach to Heav’ns own blue.
For Boston, for Boston,
Till the echoes ring again!
For Boston, for Boston,
Thy glory is our own!
For Boston, for Boston,
‘Tis here that Truth is known.
And ever with the Right
Shall thy heirs be found,
Till time shall be no more
And thy work is crown’d.
For Boston, for Boston,
For Thee and Thine alone.
For Boston, for Boston, We sing our proud refrain!
For Boston, for Boston, ‘Tis Wisdon’s earthly fane
For here we are one and our hearts are true,
And the towers on the Heights reach to Heav’n’s own blue.
For Boston, for Boston, Till the echoes ring again.
re: 183 (PCG)
No offense but you are a moron.
Carsdirect.com is a lead aggregator, just like edmunds.com, yahoo.com, cars.com etc. You cannot buy a car directly on their website. You can fill out their online form and then have a bunch of dealers call you back and ask you to come into their show room.
I want this –> click, click, click kaching! and whalla a new car arrives at my door.
Just like they used to advertise on TV for Saturn.
I do not need to do a test drive or have some salesperson who treats me like I am their next mortgage payment.
I bought a car from a cars.com site once …. got a good quote went up — drove it — and signed the deal…I wouldn’t buy a car without driving it but that is just me.
Sean (269)-
Sometimes, I think a few of these posters are serious shut-ins.
Aggregators? Who knew?
[sarcasm off]
Clotpoll Says:
April 1st, 2008 at 5:18 pm
There was no intent to disparage anyone.
=========================================
Clotpoll Says:
April 1st, 2008 at 4:48 pm
Dawg (226)-
You have no clue. Keep smashing your head against the wall until one comes to you.
I’m going to guess you’re a mediocre engineer that has a hard time forming interpersonal relationships. It’s tough for folks like you to find people who can truly appreciate your brilliant simplicity.
=======================================
Dude, I’m like so disparaged right now, it hurts. I’ll eventually get over it, but a little apology might help *crosses fingers*
Clot, any update on the mortgages?
I heard that the 30 yr conforming were quoted in the low to mid 7s (APR) today.
No intent to disparage anyone in the statement I made concerning salespeople and their motives.
Every intent to disparage in statements I’ve directed at you. No apology forthcoming. Kill yourself.
Nom –
Schools are excellant. Went to a school fundraisor fri nite (for new school playground). Well attended by 250 successful and commited people. they raised $20k for the school. The people at the event were much more committed to NP than me. I have spent the past 2 weekends looking in Basking Ridge.
Clot [274],
If I have to listen to one more carnival barker, on cnbc, I may kill myself.
“No offense but you are a moron.”
LOL
Quote of the day.
202
Imus likes Jim Cramer’s bottom.
Figures
Grim –
small master bathroom. Owner was handy and did it himself. Even a Summit contractor could not charge more than $10k to remodel that bthroom. retiling that bathroom is similar to remodeling a phone booth.
wow – leave you kids alone all day and it gets like Lord of the Flies.
Jaw (273)-
Baloney. I just had a processor here run a scenario thru Chase: 30-fixed, conforming, 80 LTV, 720 FICO, 100 bps to the originator.
6%. At close to par, 5.625%.
BC (276)-
“If I have to listen to one more carnival barker, on cnbc, I may kill myself.”
I turned off CNBC a few hours ago. Now I get to sit here and read stuff from people who think the whole housing market will move to EBay.
On the whole, it may be time to turn on CNBC again.
Pawn,
You say you are a straight shooter, but you take liberties stretching the truth. As follows..
You could be right. Maybe I underpriced it. Maybe I was sucked in by all of the negativity surrounding this site.
Your home was listed and sold prior to me even starting a blog. There isn’t any way that your decision to price could have had anything to do with this site.
Even a Summit contractor could not charge more than $10k to remodel that bthroom. retiling that bathroom is similar to remodeling a phone booth.
I don’t doubt that, but you left out a material fact when you told the story. Once revealed, you poo-poo it.
Straight shooter? You sure about that?
So I’m watching John Adams the other day, and they’re singing some anthem in the background, and I turn to Mrs. Patient and say “that was written by William Billings in the mid-1700s” and look it up and sure enough. She wasn’t impressed. Been married too long.
(Apropos of the Watertown quote).
(OT, I know, but someone’s gotta lighten the mood).
I love it when Grimster starts dispensing truth.
Skin ’em alive!
“Straight shooter? You sure about that?”
Shooting straight smack, maybe.
Ah…I forgot.
Man U vs. Roma on the TIVO. Bye, guys.
Dude, ebay is so two years ago. I was thinking Craigslist.
Smiley –
I like the feistyness! After seeing lowball after lowball I felt that your readers might want some balance. God forbid if someone presents a fact pattern that diverges from your thesis that the RE world is coming to the end. In certain areas it is not coming to the end. According to your thesis the 19 Salem Rd. sellers should not be getting a penny above $400k ($489k minus 20%) this thesis is simply preposterous as it applies to NP. too much doom and gloom is no fun. Let the sun shine in.
Grim predicted a 20% decrease?
When?
King,
How are you presenting balance when you don’t even know the agreed purchase price?
Wait, wait, wait, I got one for you.
A house in Glen Rock has been on the market for a year… hasn’t sold… market crashing.
Now I balanced your post.
Wow, that was easy.
rich –
Are you trying to tell me the the coverage on this site is balanced? I don’t know what the sale price is. all I know is that based on the info on this site I was absolutely shocked to learn that the home could possibly sell that quickly with a list price of $509k. You guys on this site are trying to call a bottom – the info that i presented may help you. If you feel it is irrelevent then simply disregard it.
Rich –
You have unwittingly proven your brilliance and proven my point. The RE climate in Glen Rock may be a lot different then the climate in New Providence. My only hope is that you and your ilk stay in towns like Glen Rock.
ahhh..53 FOREST RD…it’s one of those houses that always seems to be for sale. nondiscript…bad location…busy street but those Allendale schools are a huge lure…new today is 10 FOREST RD…is it on mls yet?? Even a worse location…corner of Hillside and Forest..about 50 ft away from the high school…cute enough house. Nothing in Allendale is new, all the developments are 30-40 yearts old and Allendale never atarted as a rich town so a lot of those 40 year old developments are splits
King,
I’ll raise you one Summit short sale..
7 West End Ave
Purchased: 4/15/2005
Purchase Price: $495,000
Currently asking: $449,000
Scratch that, I’ll raise you TWO Summit short sales.
45 Briant Parkway
Purchased: 9/1/2006
Purchase Price: $475,000
Currently asking: $449,000
Mrs. Patient and I have generally found Summit cheaper than Brigadoon, despite the direct line. Just some anecdata, and not sure why that would be.
Grim –
Give me something on the north side of town (Jon Corzine, goldman sachs and wall street west) then I would be impressed. Those examples are from East Summit where English is the second language. Come on grim – if you are going to shoot – shoot straight.
patient –
b/c you are looking in east summit where esl is the norm in the east summit schools.
KingCastle Says:
April 1st, 2008 at 5:56 pm
rich – Are you trying to tell me the the coverage on this site is balanced? I don’t know what the sale price is. all I know is that based on the info on this site I was absolutely shocked to learn that the home could possibly sell that quickly with a list price of $509k. You guys on this site are trying to call a bottom – the info that i presented may help you. If you feel it is irrelevent then simply disregard it.
King: As an aside, you don’t know the closing price, so you have no idea how much they caved…
I’d like to think of myself as not a tool (STOP!). Honestly, I don’t really care about one data point, and anyone who would refuse to listen to you story is close minded. However, you should not bristle at being asked logical fact based questions, and grim’s fact finding is VERY relevant.
That said, from what I understand, this website is not intended to be objective. In fact, the whole point of the discussion here is that it is specifically devoid of biased actors in the pro-real estate camp. However, what you fail to acknowledge is the amount of facts-based discourse that occurs here and the sophistication of the analysis. The are super-RE bears, but they eventually become bored because the threads are not overwhelmed by hyperbole and end up too technical for their tastes.
Your assetion is noted, but I don’t agree with its relevance.
As Raymond “Rainman” Babbitt would say….
“…40 minutes to Pedro…”
BC Bob
Sorry, I cannot resist. So here goes:
For Boston, For Boston,
The Outhouse on the hill.
For Boston, For Boston,
They **** and always will.
So, here’s to the outhouse on the hill,
BC ****S AND ALWAYS WILL!
GO UMASS!!!
Oh cr@p it’s another Richard.
King
“Are you trying to tell me the the coverage on this site is balanced?”
If he isn’t, I am. You disagree?
njpatient –
If the sight was balanced every time there was a lowball feature there would also be a feature of homes that sold at, near or above ask. that is balance.
Dawg (288)-
Do you find your dates on Craigslist too?
(305) – Looking for balance, find another site.
299 King
wow – king of assumptions, are you?
Nah
And the banker portion of town is specifically f+cked. Didn’t you know the banks are going under and they’re all losing their jobs?
Chi, hitting 300
Beisbol
Mmmmmmmm
nom[302],
Like it. Oh by the way, do they field a football team at ZOO MASS? Have they removed the iron bars from the dorm windows yet?
KingCastle,
People here routinely ignore broad measures of New Jersey home prices. The reason: the data from these sources doesn’t conform to their housing crash thesis.
I recently put together a chart that showed NJ home prices as measured by 2 separate sources.
When I asked the moderator to post the chart, he told me to go back and add to it a 3rd index, even though the footprint of this 3rd index covers 4 states.
The initial chart had been judged unacceptable for njrereport for the simple reason that it didn’t illustrate a NJ housing crash.
Nevertheless, I added the 3rd index to the chart and sent it to the moderator. Maybe I missed it, but I don’t believe this chart has been posted either.
Meanwhile, details from numerous lowball transactions have been posted.
Clearly, the point of this site is to build the case that NJ home prices are crashing. Evidence that contradicts that assumption is not pursued, viewed with excessive skepticism, or censored.
“If the sight was balanced every time there was a lowball feature there would also be a feature of homes that sold at, near or above ask. that is balance.”
No. The sight (sic) doesn’t have the purpose of reporting RE sale prices. It has (pardon me, grim) the purpose of _providing_ balance to an industry that has, for years, consisted of lies told in pursuit of the sale; whether by the NAR, the MSM, or any number of schmucks with blogs (such as the schnook with whom clot’s currently in tangle).
If you want a sales pitch, go elsewhere, but don’t say that facts are not balanced unless provided in conjunction with a sales pitch that’s otherwise ubiquitous.
It is not “balanced” to provide “the other side of the argument” if the the other side of the argument is simply wrong. You can watch CNN for that sort of reporting.
…or read pretorius’s posts.
Oh cr@p it’s another Richard.
No, Richard deals in broad generalities and feel-good slogans.
For specific, instantly discredited ‘facts’, I was thinking of someone starting with a ‘D’…
SO what about this timing….
Today is april fools day and here is what we got…
1. Market is up on news of more write downs!!
2. the dems and reps hold a joint press conference in the capital announcing a home owner bailout
3. Cramer says we have hit bottom and the recent declines in commodities is evidence.
AT this rate i cant wait to see the real headlines tomorrow
312 BC
HEY! My cuz went there.
(But they do suck – let’s sing a round of “where have you gone, John Calipari” (the Les Brown/Doris Day version)).
“2 sides to an argument” is a false dichotomy. There are not always two equally valid sides to all arguments. sometimes there are 3 sometimes there is only 1. stop watching fox news!
Lawsuit over home sale focuses on neighbor’s odd behavior
Michael Kiefer
The Arizona Republic
Apr. 1, 2008 01:40 PM
Do you have to disclose the fact that your neighbor is disruptive before selling your house?
That is the subject of a case working its way through Maricopa County Superior Court for the past year.
Glenn Melton thought he was buying the American dream for his daughter. What he got was a neighbor who launches into obscene tirades at any hour.
So Melton sued the man who sold him the house.
At issue is whether the neighbor’s behavior constitutes a nuisance that should have been noted on the “residential seller’s property-disclosure statement” that every home seller has to fill out.
In 2005, Melton made a down payment on a house in the Arcadia section of Phoenix, a 1,000-square-foot starter home on a tree-lined street in what looked to be a quiet neighborhood. Then, he met the neighbor.
“She screams and yells at people that are passing by,” Melton said. “When my daughter’s in the backyard, the neighbor’s yelling at her and making verbal threats.”
Later, Melton learned that the neighbor had called 911 hundreds of times, saying that people were breaking in, or that her sister was shooting poison at their elderly mother’s legs. Once, she met police at the door while holding a shotgun.
And just days before closing the house sale, the former owner called the police after he and his dog were pelted with potatoes the neighbor was throwing at unseen intruders in the oleander bushes between the two yards.
Melton eventually asked the former owner to take the house back. When he refused, Melton sued.
Nathan Thinnes, the former owner, said that he wrestled with whether to disclose the neighbor’s problems but was told not to by his Realtor.
According to court documents, the Realtor denies giving that advice, so Thinnes sued him. And the neighbor and her mother, who lives with her.
Local and national real-estate attorneys are hesitant to comment about the case, partly because Melton and Thinnes are both executives in the real-estate business.
They also paused because the case raises questions as to whether such a disclosure would violate the neighbor’s civil rights.
Would that constitute discrimination against her because of a possible mental disability?
“I don’t know if she’s nuts or what the deal is,” Melton said, “but I know she is a genuine and profound nuisance.”
An ongoing problem
Thinnes bought the house in 1999, using the same Realtor he hired to sell it five years later.
That Realtor works for a franchise of the realty corporation of which Melton is chief operating officer.
“The same lady lived next door, and there was no disclosure about it,” Thinnes said. “And I never made a big deal out of it. Soon after I moved in, I learned about her, and I looked at it as simply a reality of the neighborhood.”
The woman is in her 40s. Thinnes said she would talk to herself and sometimes water the flowers in his front yard. At times, Thinnes said, he would take the mother to doctor appointments.
When he put the house on the market in 2005, he said it was because it was too small.
“We were selling it because it was only 1,000 square feet,” he said. “We were selling it because we wanted to start a family.”
Melton bought it that August. His daughter, Kelly Zegers, had been renting a home down the street and wanted to stay in the neighborhood. It seemed to be a good decision.
One day, Melton’s wife went to visit Zegers and witnessed the neighbor’s behavior firsthand. When she called police to ask if there were any complaints, the officer found so many that he asked if the address was an apartment complex.
Melton said that Thinnes claimed to be unaware of the neighbor’s escapades, but a police report from days before the house was closed on showed otherwise. According to the report, Thinnes heard noises in his backyard, and when he went to investigate, found the neighbor throwing potatoes into his yard and screaming obscenities. She accused him of stealing from her freezer. He called police.
“Nathan is completely frustrated with (the neighbor’s) action and demanded that she be arrested because her actions alarmed and disturbed him,” the report said.
It went on to describe past visits from police to the house, including the shotgun encounter. The neighbor was handcuffed and taken away in a squad car and stayed away until after Zegers moved in.
In Melton’s opinion, that indicates not only that the neighbor is dangerous but that Thinnes knew she was and hid that fact when he sold the house.
“I point out that he’s a Realtor because that means he’s trained in the various ethical and procedural things that have to do with real estate,” Melton said. “And that’s something they call a seller’s disclosure statement.”
Neighbor a nuisance
Zegers said that the disruption occurs on a daily basis.
“Every day, she’s constantly yelling obscenities,” she said. “I stopped calling police; they told me there’s nothing they can do.”
Zegers would like to move but feels trapped.
“I can’t sell it,” she said. “There’s no way I can have a renter.”
The neighbor declined to speak with The Arizona Republic.
Audrey Celine, who has lived in a house across the street for 30 years, said that the problem is better than it used to be. Although she said that the neighbor once would cause property damage to other houses, she recalled a recent conversation with the woman’s mother, who said she was on a new medication that better controlled her outbursts.
“From my observation, I don’t think there’s a problem anymore,” Celine said.
Thinnes has since purchased a bigger house, and he and his wife have a new baby. He says he is in no position to take his old house back. And he believes Melton’s motive has less to do with nuisance than with the decreasing home values in a bad real-estate market.
“I think it comes down to buyer’s remorse, plain and simple,” Thinnes said. “He bought it when the market was going at a frenzy place. And, shortly thereafter, the market just sank.”
Thinnes pointed out that he lived there for nearly six years.
“Is she the ideal neighbor? No,” he said. “Would I want her living next to me now? No. But do I think it rises to the level of broadcasting to the world that you have someone with a disability living next door to you? I don’t think so.”
Melton disagreed.
“Look,” he said. “I don’t care why she’s a nuisance. She could be a neo-Nazi, or she could be a member of the Jackhammer Society.
“Whatever. It doesn’t matter why she’s a nuisance, it’s just that it’s a significant intrusive nuisance, and that’s what he needed to disclose.”
“Careers vanish after subprime ‘free fall'”
http://money.cnn.com/2008/03/31/news/economy/copes/index.htm?postversion=patrick.net
319 ket
Spot on
The modern day media have abdicated their responsibility as the 4th estate. Now “balance” means that you have to give equal time to Generalissimo Franco if you want to discuss the relative merits of fascism.
“Is communism a useful form of governance? After these commercials, we’ll have a balanced discussion between Stephen Moore and Chairman Mao. And now a word from our sponsors.”
You are not balanced unless you give equal weight to the truth and the lie!!!
schabadoo Says:
April 1st, 2008 at 7:08 pm
“No, Richard deals in broad generalities and feel-good slogans.
For specific, instantly discredited ‘facts’, I was thinking of someone starting with a ‘D’…”
You might be right, it was the reference to train towns that derailed me.
We are locked and loaded for Gov’t intervention in Washington DC perhaps as early as tomorrow.
1) Bernanke is testifying before the Senate Banking Committee tomorrow.
2) The Senate is ready to intervene in the housing crisis perhaps as early as tomorrow.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/01/washington/01cnd-housing.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin
kettle1 Says:
April 1st, 2008 at 7:12 pm
““2 sides to an argument” is a false dichotomy. There are not always two equally valid sides to all arguments. sometimes there are 3 sometimes there is only 1. stop watching fox news!”
Dude! You know Faux news doesn’t present 2 sides to an arguement – they set up a straw man based on a hypothetical “what THEY think” and then get all smug about demolishing it.
321 BC
BS!! There are no job losses!!! All those execs I’m firing are bouncing right back.
Pretorius, I loved your explication earlier today that NYC financial jobs were marginally higher in Feb/08 than in Feb/07, given that near calendar end ’07 you were pointing out that YOY jobs were substantially higher. Must have been a lot of job losses in between, no? Please, do give us those numbers again at the end of Q2 08 – I quiver with anticipation!!! And don’t let’s forget to talk bonuses at the end of this year. What’s your prediction? I suggest Goldman’s bonuses will be chopped in half – how ’bout you?
RE in NYC area in 2008 will be bad.
In 2009, it wil be a f+cking epic disaster.
Please, do give us those numbers again at the end of Q2 08
sure.. How about +5% to -10%?
instead of hoping for an epic housing collapse in NJ and complaining about how the future of Nj is doomed, wouldn’t it be a more productive use of time and energy to join the mass exodus and move to a state with cheaper housing prices and a presumably brighter future. Just asking , , , ,
#331 castleking
Don’t be a joy killer. We need o complain about something.
PS I’m doing both. Mocking the high prices and planing my escape.
I saw this in a Samuel Jackson movie
SJ: “A lot of people have tried but failed to get out of New Jersey”
Some putz “How many?”
SJ “The whole population”
330 chessboy
“instead of hoping for an epic housing collapse in NJ and complaining about how the future of Nj is doomed, wouldn’t it be a more productive use of time and energy to join the mass exodus”
Half right. You’re improving. I’m not hoping, I am merely observing, and I am not complaining. And yes, I’ll take my ability to buy a house with cash away from NJ.
Can someone please explain to me why people who sold at the top of the market and then bought right back into the same market are so p*ssed off?
that is the beauty of a capitalist society. The strong survive and the weak move on. I am glad to see that you have realized that simply being average no longer entitles you to a solid middle class life.
334 castle
Who are you talking to?
new jersey average patient
#334 castleking
Are you claiming you are strong and those of us who are not willing to become indentured servants and take on the open ended laibility of NJ property taxes are average and weak?
I think duck man is back.
There are literally rivers of money flowing beneath manhattan island – you either have the skills and tenacity to drill down and get yours or you don’t.
#336
quack king
M&A versus Litigation
This is going to be good.
#338
This has to be reechard or duckie. I can’t believe there are 3 people like this in the world.
What I love about the occasional jacka$$es who show up here and are dame bramaged enough to be bulls at the moment is that there’s no real conviction on your part.
Castle, have you bought recently? I hear Summit is a great investment these days!
Let’s review the bulls:
Duck: selling, desperate and angry.
bi: predicted $40 oil, no more writedowns after 11/17/08; has not, to my knowledge, acted on his bullish convictions and bought a single property.
Pretorius: I’m being nice to the bulls by even including him, because his position is generally that NYC area RE will stagnate, and he has not been buying either (right, pret?).
Imus: Occasionally swings by to fluff Jim Cramer, or on a bad day bi, but has not, to my knowledge, acted on his bullish convictions by buying a property. Feel free to correct me if I’m wrong, Imus (about the buying, not the fluffing, since you were engaging in the fluffing in this very thread).
Castleking: tell me, you wealthy dilettante, what property you have invested in recently? We’ll keep track.
In short, the bears on this page seem to practice what they preach.
The bulls, on the other hand, are completely full of sh+t*
* Excepting pretorius, who isn’t actually a bull, and hasn’t bought either.
336
“new jersey average patient”
gibberish?
338 castleking
I take it you’ve been drilling and are incredibly rich, which is why you are here desperately selling real estate?
People hire drillers to get at that river. Are you hiring or drilling?
It is simple – if you are not able to secure a real good, high paying job, you would have to be absolutely insane and/or a coward to remain in NJ.
“KingCastle Says:
April 1st, 2008 at 5:27 pm
Nom –
Schools are excellant.”
I’m taking a wild guess you’re not a New Providence graduate.
338 king
“There are literally rivers of money flowing beneath manhattan island”
This is the sort of tomfool statement that someone who recently arrived from Timbucktoo (what my mother refers to as a “Resident Tourist” and increasingly makes up the majority of the population of the Island, excepting Doyle) would make. Where’d you grow up, castle, that you suddenly realized there’s money in Manhattan and feel the urge to impart this impressive insight to the unwashed heathens who may be unaware??
320
I would considering suing too, if that was my neighbor.
Sean,
regarding car buying
USAA ( a credit union) will do the shopping and bargaining for you, and then call you back with the numbers for your approval. i have used it and it rocked. unfortunately USAA is open to the general public ( yes i know that is in the definition of a credit union)
345 king
“It is simple – if you are not able to secure a real good, high paying job, you would have to be absolutely insane and/or a coward to remain in NJ.”
Given that the median income in NJ is around $70K, you are either referring to $70K as a “high paying job” or you are describing the majority of the population of NJ as insane and/or cowardly. If the former, you’re a moron, and if the latter, you’re only a moron if you want NJ RE prices to do anything other than plummet. I’m not sure which is the more charitable view of you, but I’m willing to take suggestions.
348 Ann
No doubt.
Latent defect/nuisance. Done.
i was not smart enough to go to wall street. I went to law school in 1991 instead. I have worked hard and would submit that i a barely comfortable. the summit wall street boys can buy and sell me. I represent them when the SEC and/or US attorneys office steps in and says that they stepped over the line. Able to pay my bills and put away 20% of my income every year. I am looking to buy RE. Specifically a second home. Focused on Jersey shore, Cape Cod (Pleasant Bay in East Orleans) or Naples FLA.
352
“I have worked hard and would submit that i a barely comfortable.”
So, since you don’t have a “real good, high paying job” but you are nevertheless “[f]ocused on Jersey shore”, does that make you “absolutely insane and/or a coward to remain in NJ” or do you get an exemption?
“i a barely comfortable”
u a liquid?
Njpatient, I have bought and sold several NJ condos during the past several years.
The only one I still own is my primary residence. It comprises a minority of my financial assets, so I’m probably underweight real estate compared to the median American homeowner.
patient –
If you make $70k a year you absolutely owe it to your family to move. NJ is the equivalent of GM – faced with insurmountable future debt obligations. I have a pretty good job but still ask myself if it is worth it to stay here. I put in a solid 60-70 hrs week.
“M&A versus Litigation
This is going to be good.”
It’s all good. We always share our kill with them at the end of the year so that they don’t starve.
king
how many times do i/ we have to repeat this. unless you really want NYC to look like mumbai (bombay) then you need a strong middle class. if you are suggesting that nyc should be only the rich and the poor then this is what you should expect
http://blog.miragestudio7.com/wp-content/uploads2/2007/12/morumbi_sao_paulo_condo_rich_city_shelter_poor.jpg
“If you make $70k a year you absolutely owe it to your family to move.”
Do you mean “$70k give or take”?
Or do you mean “anywhere over $70K”?
Your assumptions continue to be confusing.
“i was not smart enough to go to wall street.”
How smart do you have to be to lose hundreds of billions?
360 BC
Someone had to ask. I was trying not to be rude.
Genius –
In 350 you state that $70k is the median income in NJ. If I made less than twice that I would be out of NJ in a second.
BC –
From my practice I have learned that it is easy to be a success on wall street when you have access to inside ibank info and/or have an unlimited expense budget to make sure that the guys on the buy side have access to dwarfs (for tossing of course) and pros at their bachelor parties.
“Genius –
In 350 you state that $70k is the median income in NJ. If I made less than twice that I would be out of NJ in a second.”
Exactly. You are suggesting that 75% of the population of NJ would be stupid to stay, and yet you posit that NJ RE is a good investment.
Who’s a genius?
# castleking Says:
April 1st, 2008 at 8:40 pm
Genius –
In 350 you state that $70k is the median income in NJ. If I made less than twice that I would be out of NJ in a second.
for someone so intelligent and high earning, you seem to not think your stance all the way through…. unless i have misunderstood you,you are suggesting only the rich and poor should live in NJ, middleclass folks be damned
363 castle
Sucks for you that you need a healthy wall street. From my practice I’ve learned that in the fat years, it’s good to buy wall street and in the lean years it’s good to sell wall street.
The questions you’ve dodged are telling.
castle king,
at least we seem to agree that dwarf tossing in fun!
363,
Are you insinuating, that those who are successful on the street, can only attribute this to inside info and bimbo’s? If yes, that’s simply the most asinine statement that I have read on this blog. That’s saying a lot. There has been a ton of competition.
patient –
I am not looking at the purchase of my vacation home as an investment. I look at is a reward and a chance to create a legacy for my family.
As for the NJ middle class – why in the world would you stay here? If you are make $70k a year your quality of life would have to improve if you moved to a state with cheaper housing, lower taxes and a growing economy.
369 castle
That’s now the third time that you’ve made an argument for why the value of NJ real estate has to fall. I’d make the bear argument, but you’re making it for me. Repeatedly.
BC –
what i am saying is that there are 2 classes of people on wall street who make a ton of money. some are exceptionally talented and some flat out cheat and or simply have the best frat boy personality with a deep expense account.
369 castle
so you’re saying that you earn more than twice $70K?
Wow. I can’t imagine such lofty heights.
“You are suggesting that 75% of the population of NJ would be stupid to stay, and yet you posit that NJ RE is a good investment.
Who’s a genius?”
patient,
This baffles me also.
patient –
i want real estate to fall in vacation areas. I just do not think, it will collapse in certain areas like Summit. I was recently looking in Naples Fla. I had read that 15k properties are for sale in Naples and when I met with the realtor I was licking my chops. Sure enough the condos in the cookie cutter golf communities away from the old naples downtown had dropped dramatically. there is nothing special about those properties. where I want to buy, however, is Gulf Shore BLVD, a special street. The prices there have really not come down much. The same will be true of Summit.
“As for the NJ middle class – why in the world would you stay here? If you are make $70k a year your quality of life would have to improve if you moved to a state with cheaper housing, lower taxes and a growing economy.”
CK,
You are supporting the bear’s argument, regarding RE in NJ. I would hate to have you representing me in court.
BC –
I can see why you are agitated – is it b/c you went to a safety school?
BC and patient –
show me where I said NJ real estate is a good investment. I just do not think it is going to collapse in certain areas of NJ.
castleking – the stars may be aligning for you. After what is predicted to be a blood bath this selling season down the Jersey Shore you should be able to scoop up your reward.
As far as Cape Cod, I know several people trying to sell their homes on the Cape right now. The market is deader than road kill up there. One thing to remember about the Cape it is about 300 miles from the GW Bridge to Hyannis, a bitch of a drive on any weekend, and the Cops on I-95 in Connecticut don’t like people from Jersey. The population of people who live there full time now is about the same as those that only went up there on weekends during the summer 20 years ago.
As far as who whacked the middle class in NJ here is a great primer.
http://www.city-journal.org/html/16_2_new_jersey.html
342#, patient,
as mentioned here a few time, i made trade-up in last 4 months: bought at 10% off OLP (2% off LP), sold at 3% off LP (within 2% of 2005 level). In addition i made a refin, which brought down my mortgage by 0.875%.
>bi: predicted $40 oil, no more writedowns after 11/17/08; has not, to my knowledge, acted on his bullish convictions and bought a single property.
Give me reason why you would stay in NJ if you had a family and were making $75k a year. how could you afford to live?
“I would hate to have you representing me in court.”
BC – if you ever have need, get me through grim and I’ll put you in touch with the best litigators in the United States. Don’t get in touch with castleking, who is at a safety-law firm.
379 castle
For g*d’s sake, who the h*ll are you talking to??
378
bi
mls numbers, please.
Proof, dear boy.
378#, patient, by the way, my refi is a no-cost one, which saved me around 3K. the point is you can always find something if you really go out to dig.
379 castleking
Haven’t been following the blog all day, but to your question
“Give me reason why you would stay in NJ if you had a family and were making $75k a year. how could you afford to live?”
It’s not that easy to make $75K a year, and definitely not easy in many other parts of the country. So the question might be why would you leave a state where you had a job making 75K. Sure, if you could find a job somewhere else, but what if you couldn’t.
376 castle
“show me where I said NJ real estate is a good investment. I just do not think it is going to collapse in certain areas of NJ.”
Down goes Frazier!!
And another bull bites the dust.
is that the “balanced argument”??
383 bi
mls numeros, hombre.
386#,sorry you can ask thousand times but i am not so silly to tell
Been reading here/ new to the site. Got a question for you realtors..Is there any truth to the rumor that there will be yet another new tax put upon those who will be selling their NJ property. Does anyone here know what that would be? I am thinking of becoming a renter for a while but I think you only have 18 months to reinvest before you have to pay capital gains tax on money earned on your house. It seems that you just can’t get away from this. any suggestions from the realtors in the group?
387 bi
Full of sh*t to the end.
grim
Fess up. Castleking is you, playing April Fool.
Tom,
Yes, but whether or not it is a new tax, or a change to an existing tax, is a matter of spin.
The change would allow municipalities to add a surcharge onto the already existing Realty Transfer Tax.
Here is the text of the assembly bill:
http://www.njleg.state.nj.us/2006/Bills/A3500/3387_I1.PDF
I’m not sure of the current status, but the NJAR is still fighting it:
http://njhometax.com
patient –
the balanced argument is that the sky is not falling in certain markets. The are lowballs. there also are areas where sellers are getting close to ask. that is balance.
the balanced argument is that the sky is not falling in certain markets.
Can you identify for me the markets where the sky is falling?
“the balanced argument is that the sky is not falling in certain markets. The are lowballs. there also are areas where sellers are getting close to ask. that is balance.”
backpedalling.
i’m almost embarrassed to be a bear.
“Can you identify for me the markets where the sky is falling?”
Apparently it is falling merely in most, but not all, markets.
Grim-
Reading your blog, especially your lowballs, led me to believe that the sky is falling everywhere. That is why i was so shocked when I heard about my old house. I simply presented the story for some balance. Everyone is obviously entitled to disregard it if they so desire.
castleking flying to his sunny vacation home:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2008/04/01/npenguin101.xml
396 castle
If I ever get really scared about the falling sky, I will hunker down in the safety of your old house.
Always back away from old statements: now, the sky is falling nowhere.
Maybe it would help if you define “sky.” And “falling.”
patient –
backpeddling? Show me 1 post where I took a different position. Maybe, just maybe, you are overstating the demise of the RE market.
thanks grim,
So if I sell and rent would I have to pay cap gains on what I made on my house? or am I ok to do that. I figure I might be better off investing the equity and paying about 24k per year in rent. what do you seasoned RE execs think about that strategy. thanks for your POV
“patient –
backpeddling?”
I didn’t say “backpeddling”. Are you selling something?
For g*d’s sake, man, words have meanings!
Grim,
As always, i thoroughly enjoyed your site. Your efforts are definitely worth it. Good luck to everyone.
“Show me 1 post where I took a different position. ”
You went from “the sky isn’t falling in all markets” to being unable to identify a single market where the sky is falling to being unable to define “sky” or “falling” (ok, that may be unfair because you didn’t try, but maybe look up “pedal” and “peddle” some day when court is in recess. Lawyers should be able to grasp the meaning of words).
njpatient – speaking of hunkering down, channel 4 interrupted TV for a tornado watch for Northern NJ, and said to hunker down in the basement.
The radar shows red, perhaps the end is near?
http://www.accuweather.com/radar-large.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=1&zipChg=1&site=PA_&type=SIR&anim=1&level=state&large=1
“As always, i thoroughly enjoyed your site. Your efforts are definitely worth it.”
He has a tip jar at the top right of the front page. Give him some money if you really mean that.
“The radar shows red, perhaps the end is near?”
The end is near? Does that mean the bottom is in sight??
you guys might find this interesting, a chart of the ECB infusions….
http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/0,1518,grossbild-1132939-543588,00.html
castleking –
maybe the reason people found your post irritating is because you sarcastically belittle all the real news and real facts and intelligent discussion (mostly) delivered on this site, and offer up the (maybe) sale of your old house as some kind of evidence that all is well in the housing market.
if you wanted to just offer a balance, you would not have posted with such a snotty attitude.
So if I sell and rent would I have to pay cap gains on what I made on my house?
Realty transfer tax is paid at closing, a different animal from cap gains. I can only assume you are familiar with the current cap gains exemptions, and you have a cap gain that exceeds that. I’d suggest meeting with a tax professional or an accountant to discuss your options.
As always, i thoroughly enjoyed your site.
Enjoyed your contribution, it made for a lively evening.
From the Star Ledger:
Schering-Plough cuts 70 jobs
Schering-Plough is eliminating 70 jobs at Organon BioSciences, a company it acquired earlier this year for $14.4 billion, according to state officials.
The Kenilworth drugmaker notified the state Labor Department about the cuts, which were scheduled to take effect this past Monday. Organon, a Dutch company, has U.S. offices in Roseland.
I hope everyone is reading Calculated Risk today.
Pretorius (313),
You are correct, you missed it. It was posted the same day you requested that it be posted. Then I recall you brining it up again 1 or 2 days later. That is when I believe Grim asked you to add the 3rd index.
NJ median household income in 06 was 64K
Median earnings for workers = 34K
Who came up with the 70K #? You guys are out of touch yuppies!
Allendale
SLD 2 KAYETON RD $625,000 3/19/2004
SLD 2 KAYETON RD $600,000 4/1/2008
Ridgewood
SLD 113 CIRCLE AVE $653,000 6/1/2006
SLD 113 CIRCLE AVE $592,500 3/31/2008
BEAUTIFUL KITCHEN JUST RENOVATED IN 2007 W/ GRANITE COUNTERTOPS, STAINLESS STEEL NEW APPLIANCES, HUGE PANTRY AND***1ST FLOOR MASTER BEDROOM ADDITION***
I don’t know….the last time we had 400+ posts on a weekday was right before Ira the Duck Man got banned……
re:chicagofinance Says
Ehh. I don’t know how you manage it guys but it takes at least 2-2.5 hr a day for me to follow it. Worth it though.
Remids me good old days when FIDO was still kicking
Rich in NNJ,
You are right. Grim did post the initial chart. I missed it.
Grim,
I apologize for the false accusation.
Here’s the chart again. It didn’t seem to generate a lot of discussion.
https://njrereport.com/files/pre_njhp.xls
Don’t you people remember the lawyer who dropped in here about a year ago and was egging everyone on? I suspect this (castleking) is the same person.
In fact, parts of his story are identical (being a lawyer, looking for a house at the shore as a “legacy” for his family, etc.).
April 24th 2007 actually.
https://njrereport.com/index.php/2007/04/24/march-existing-home-sales/
Here’s the chart again. It didn’t seem to generate a lot of discussion.
Was working on a front page post for the graph.
#269 Sean
I’ll skip the insult. Yes it is a lead aggregatoe, but youy plug into the Internet and fleet side of the dealership. This does not work on commision and the price is set. There is no bait and switch unless you start talking to a salesperson between the front door of the dealership and the back office when you go to sign the paperwork and pick up the keys.
As for Saturn. I still get the “we need to buy your used Saturn for our used car lot” letters.
BC,
Not as harsh as I would have expected.
Yes, there is a football team–much better now than when I went there. In fact, it was the same team that nearly embarrassed the Eagles at the Heights this past season. And without all those scholarship players too! How about BC–do they field a hoops team anymore (torn here because Skinner is a UMass alum and I want to see him do well).
Don’t recall any iron bars in Amherst. Where did you see those? But I used to live near Cleveland Cir. and I would take some iron bars over getting mugged or into fights with drunken BC undergrads.
And I am gratified you did not trot out the hackneyed ed cred taunts. But in case you are tempted, let me make a preemptive strike. Even though I graduated 7th in my law school class, and have an NYU LLM, I did not distinguish myself at UMass (not for lack of trying–it is an easy school to get into but a hard one to stay in). I took undergrad and grad classes at Harvard, Mt Holyoke, and Amherst College in addition to UMass, and my hardest classes (and worst grades) were at UMass. Further, I recall UMass has world-renowned undergrad and grad engineering, polymer sciences, and economics programs, a top-ranked undergrad business school, and a world-renowned medical school. Now, refresh my memory here–which programs at BC are respected internationally (besides football, I mean)?
#415…richinnnj..RE: 2 KAYETON…that Allendale house went for only 600k???? it’s a nice house in a real nice neighborhood. The only problem is that it isn’t within walking distance to the schoold and since Allendale has no bussing you have to get little Chandler and Olivia to school your self which is a drawback in so many ways…but the house is nice with a big addition on the back…fire up that Range Rover and drive the kiddos to school..