From the WSJ:
Number of Foreclosed Homes Keeps Rising
Lenders Cut Prices To Jump-Start Sales As Inventory Grows
By JAMES R. HAGERTY
June 2, 2008; Page A3
The number of foreclosed homes owned by lenders continues to rise despite signs that they are increasingly willing to slash prices to sell those properties.
Lenders and investors in mortgages owned about 660,000 foreclosed homes in April, up from 493,000 in January and 231,000 in January 2007, according to First American CoreLogic, a research firm based in Santa Ana, Calif., that collects data from lenders and county clerks. The April total works out to about one in seven previously occupied homes available for sale nationwide.
A surge in defaults has increased the inventory of bank-owned homes, known in the trade as REO, for “real estate owned.” By cutting prices, lenders have managed to increase sales of such homes sharply in recent months in some cities hit hard by foreclosures, including Las Vegas, Detroit and Sacramento, Calif., local real-estate brokers say.
With home prices falling, “holding the assets means further losses,” said Mark Fleming, chief economist for First American CoreLogic. Some lenders now are cutting prices as often as every 20 days on homes that aren’t selling, said David McCarthy, chief executive officer of Integrated Asset Services LLC, a Denver-based company that helps banks value and sell REO homes.
But lenders haven’t yet managed to catch up with the inflow of foreclosed homes. Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Economy.com, forecasts that the inventory of REO homes won’t peak before the end of 2009.
In dollar terms, foreclosed one- to four-family homes owned by lenders whose deposits are insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. more than doubled to $8.56 billion at the end of the first quarter from $3.59 billion a year earlier.
The REO glut is weighing on house prices in many areas, as banks tend to cut prices faster than other sellers. A new set of local home-price indexes, to be introduced this week by Integrated Asset Services, shows that the median price of homes sold in Riverside County, Calif., in April was down about 29% from a year earlier. The median price fell about 13% in Clark County, Nev., and 12% in Arizona’s Maricopa and Pima counties. Median-price comparisons can be skewed by shifts in the proportions of high- and lower-priced homes sold from one year to the next but provide a broad indication of market trends.
From the AP:
NJ lawmakers weigh hefty benefit reforms
New Jersey legislators striving to finalize a cost-slashing state budget are also eyeing cutting taxpayer-paid pension and health benefits for newly hired government workers.
The move would run into opposition from public worker unions who have supported Democrats who control the Legislature and protested previous efforts to legislatively redo benefits.
It could also run into Democratic Gov. Jon S. Corzine, who prefers negotiating most benefit changes with labor unions.
But Senate Budget Chairwoman Barbara Buono said changes are needed to retain the pension system for current workers and save taxpayer money.
New Jersey’s pension fund faces a $25 billion deficit, with the state also obligated for $58 billion in medical benefits for retired government workers.
“Both parties are essentially in agreement that in order to save the pension system for current public employees, we must take decisive action to stop the growth of New Jersey’s unfunded liability,” said Buono, D-Middlesex.
But unions are already fuming.
From the WSJ:
Collapse in Demand
For Large SUVs Leaves Owners in a Bind
Tumbling Values on Trade-ins, Used Vehicles Means Many Loans Are ‘Underwater’
June 2, 2008
Most people who buy a new car or truck don’t think they are making a risky bet on the commodity futures market. But they are. Just ask someone who’s trying to unload a large sport-utility vehicle purchased in the last two or three years.
The market for large, second-hand SUVs is going through its own version of the mortgage market’s meltdown — and for some of the same reasons. GM’s Hummer H2s and Chevy Tahoes and Toyota’s Sequoias were adjuncts to a lifestyle built on cheap energy. Because gas was cheap, living farther from work in order to buy a larger home in a former corn field (or desert) was a reasonable economic decision. Shuttling 100 miles a day from school to work to mall to Costco was a trivial expense — $10 or so when gas was $1.50 a gallon. You could spend more supplying all your passengers with 20-ounce bottles of Coca-Cola.
Gasoline at $4 a gallon has burst the super-sized American lifestyle. The proof: The fizz has gone out of sales of those 20-ounce sodas, in part because after the shock of filling up at the pump, people aren’t in a mood to buy anything else at the quickie mart.
More seriously, lots of big homes far from town suddenly aren’t worth what’s owed on them, and the SUVs that ferried people around the sprawl are also “underwater” on their loans.
About 36% of the people who tried to trade in a large SUV in May owed more on the truck than it was worth, according to data from the Power Information Network. That’s up from just under 33% a year ago. (It’s worse for large pickups. Recent PIN data suggests 40% of large pickups traded during May fetched less than the loan balance.)
A three-year-old large SUV today is worth about $2,000 to $3,000 less at trade-in than a three-year-old large SUV would have been in 2007, before gas prices began to soar, according to Marc Cannon of AutoNation Inc., the largest U.S. auto retailer. A three-year-old Chevy Tahoe that might have fetched $19,700 in September 2007, he says. Today, a three-year-old Tahoe might be worth $16,400 at trade-in.
In other words, folks who bought a big SUV in 2005 are discovering that they were making a bet that oil prices would remain stable. They were wagering $30,000 to $40,000, not the billions certain U.S. auto makers stand to lose from making a similar wager. But the pain of losing that bet is still real. There hasn’t been such a significant collapse in demand for a class of vehicles since the oil embargoes and inflation of the 1970s slaughtered muscle cars.
From USA Today:
Slow economic times mean pay cuts for many workers
When times were good, Mark Gershman’s salary was all but an afterthought. It made up only about 20% of his pay. The remaining 80% flowed from sales, which were brisk, of the floors and countertops he sells in the once white-hot housing market of Scottsdale, Ariz.
Now? His commissions have shrunk, and he’s living mainly on the monthly stipend that is his salary.
“Since I can’t control my commissions, I must watch every cent going out with greater care,” Gershman says. “Meals out are less often, and shopping at the mall is for recreation only.”
To understand the human consequences of the economic slowdown, you have to look beyond the widespread layoffs. Consider the millions of people who have managed to keep their jobs yet have seen their pay slashed, often drastically. From home-improvement contractors to waiters to salespeople, those who are paid at least in part with commissions, bonuses or tips have been battered by the slowdown.
“This may be the first downturn where, because variable pay is so pervasive, it’s affecting everyone down to hourly workers,” says John Bremen, a director in Watson Wyatt’s compensation consulting practice.
Montgomery officials set to fight new COAH rules on two fronts
MONTGOMERY — Montgomery residents could see their township listed as a plaintiff in two separate lawsuits filed against what township officials see as draconian Council on Affordable Housing rules, set to be adopted Monday.
In Montgomery’s case, the township would be required to build approximately 500 additional affordable units under the new regulations, known as the COAH third-round rules. That implication — plus numerous other issues — provided the impetus to get involved in legal challenges, according to township officials.
They have also agreed to get involved in what is known as the Seven Town Coalition, originally made up of some Hunterdon and Somerset County towns.
The Seven Town challenge involves a group of towns that have all followed past COAH rules and tried to fulfill their obligations, but now find the proposed rules abhorrent, Mayor Cecilia Birge said.
COAH’s analysis concluded that there are 4,434 acres of land ripe for development, while utilizing township data, Montgomery officials came up with only 2,774 acres of developable land, a 37 percent decrease.
So I guess 2774 acres of developable land exists, and town finds it difficult to build 500 affordable houses in next 10 years.
Lenders try to help homeowners in trouble but is it too little, too late?
What began as a subprime problem last year has spread to folks with good credit. By the end of last year, for example, 3.24 percent of prime loans were delinquent, compared to 2.57 percent at the end of 2006, reports the Mortgage Bankers Association.
But banks and loan servicers remain overwhelmed by demand and take each borrower on a case-by-case basis, according to Lohrenz and other credit counselors. She said borrowers still must find the right person to talk to, generally someone in loss mitigation, and be prepared to lobby hard.
Experts say no one has tracked recent trends in loss mitigation nationwide among borrowers with good credit. But a taskforce of attorneys general analyzed the number of subprime borrowers getting help from their lender.
The taskforce’s original study found that as of October 2007 about 70 percent of seriously delinquent subprime loans were not in any kind of workout with the lender.
An update to the study found that as of January 2008 little had changed. The update found that while loan servicers are doing more modifications, delinquencies are rising so quickly that the ratio of those not getting help remains the same: 7 out of 10 seriously delinquent loans are not in any kind of workout.
Deborah Wilmoth, of Rancho Santa Margarita, is struggling with an option adjustable-rate mortgage. She has been making the minimum payment, with deferred interest adding up each month. She refinanced in February 2006, and after more than two years of making minimum payments she now owes about $43,000 more to the bank than we she started, for a total of around $400,000.
The Housing Wipeout: The Next Leg
That second wave of adjustable-mortgage resets won’t even begin until next year. And as you can see from the chart above, the quantity dwarfs the amount that caused Wall Street, the Fed and Congress to vomit in unison already this year.
The Prime Mortgages can include the ARMs, and there were many, many ARMS originated between 2002 and 2006 that are hanging on the edge of the “reset precipice”. Then in the next 3 years the many option ARMS and “Alt-A” ARMs (Alt-A loans are the no document “liar loans” that were originated by the millions during the housing and mortgage bubble). These resets and expired, low interest rate Alt-A ARMs will peak in 2012…oh my God, 2012!
This indicates that we have at least 3 more years of the mortgage meltdown and the housing wipeout to deal with and that is not a promising indicator of the health of the US, British, and Canadian economies in the the foreseeable future.
Here’s our official prediction, and it is worth about as much as you are paying to read this. House prices will fall another 30% as a nationwide average. In some over-inflated areas we might see another 50% from here, believe it or not. Our biggest regrets and sorrow are for those who will suffer as a result, and that is why we hope we are wrong.
Yet, Mozilo’s disgusting antipathy towards mortgagees looking to correct an unfavorable mortgage situation shows how difficult it will be for borrowers to seek loan modifications if they are in underwater mortgages and/or facing foreclosure. Look at it like this, Countrywide is responsible for originating a fair amount of Option ARM loans and subprime loans that have helped precipitate the mortgage/foreclosure crisis and its CEO is “disgusted” by its customers trying to remedy the ramifications of the aforementioned loans. If Mozilo feels this way, wouldn’t that mentality trickle down to the cogs of Countrywide who actually deal with these customers on a daily basis?
http://losangeles.injuryboard.com/miscellaneous/the-angelo-mozilo-reply.aspx?googleid=239978
Realtor boom ended with the bust
There was a time not too long ago when being a Realtor seemed to be a quick way to riches.
When the housing market was hot from 2001 to 2005, the number of agents belonging to the Sarasota Association of Realtors doubled. Nationally, more than 100,000 people earned their licenses and set off with the goal of making a killing.
“Many of the people who entered during the boom years felt like this was an easy business and an easy way to make money, and it’s not,” said Moe Veissi, a Miami-based spokesman for the National Association of Realtors.
National Association of Realtors
2001: 802,623
2006: 1,357,732
2008: 1,244,872
Nationally, there has been an 8 percent loss of Realtors in the last two years.
In the Sunshine State, it was a 23 percent loss. Locally, about 18 percent of Realtors have left since the boom times.
All’s well, Paulson is counting months now.
Paulson Says End to Financial-Market Turmoil Will Take `Months’
June 2 (Bloomberg) — U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said it will take “months” before financial-market turmoil ends and that he “very strongly” supports a strong dollar.
“We’re talking about months and there will continue to be bumps in the road,” Paulson said in response to questions after giving a speech in Abu Dhabi at the end of a four-day day trip to the Persian Gulf. Paulson was repeatedly asked about what the U.S. is doing about the weakness in the dollar, which has fallen 14 percent against the euro in the past year.
“Markets respond to economic fundamentals,” he said. “Every economy is going to have its ups and downs, and the U.S. is going through a tough period. I believe the long-term economic fundamentals will be reflected in our currency.”
#9
I think Paulson speaks in opposites. Strong dollar = falling currency. Long term fundamentals for our currency = US peso
Grim
Email
Blog contest prediction:
NJRE, HP, F*cked Borrower and other bubble blogs all get DQ’ed, and and either Buffy Woodworth’s How To Fluff a Realtor blog, Carter Jayden’s Pimp My Condo/Hump My Home blog or Brandi Wilson’s Big Bailout Blog for Jeezus will win.
SG (8)-
I spend a good deal of my time fighting with Countryfried’s loss mit department. There’s no bigger bunch of nincompoops on this planet.
njp,
I’ll be a bit disappointed if I’m DQ’ed, the prize money was slated to go to Habitat. C’mon, do you really think I’d keep the cash?
On another note, how can I be upset if a reader here cheated on my behalf? In an odd, twisted kind of way, it makes me a little bit proud to see that kind of dedication.
I wonder what Jaiden will do with it.
Wachovia’s CEO gets the ax this AM.
Wachovia CEO replaced by equally-incompetent underling.
From the NY Times:
A Return of That ’70s Show?
Which decade is it, anyway?
Not long ago it seemed as if everyone watching the carnage in financial markets was drawing scary parallels with the 1930s.
This time, however, Ben Bernanke and his colleagues at the Federal Reserve did what their predecessors failed to do during the banking crisis of 1930-31: they acted forcefully to avert a collapse of the financial system. And their efforts seem, provisionally, to have worked. While things are far from normal in the financial markets, over the last few months the sense of panic has been gradually subsiding.
You might think, then, that everyone would be congratulating Mr. Bernanke and company for their good work. But at an economic conference I recently attended, many of the participants — including people with a lot of influence in the policy world — seemed to be bashing the Bernanke Fed.
You see, fears of a 1930s-style financial meltdown are apparently out; fears of 1970s-style stagflation are in. And the Fed stands accused of being soft on inflation.
The emerging conventional wisdom, if what I heard is any indication, is that Mr. Bernanke has been fighting the wrong enemy all along: inflation, not financial collapse, is the real threat. And to head off that threat, the critics say, the Fed has to reverse course and raise interest rates — never mind the risks of recession.
So this seems like a good time to declare that the new conventional wisdom is all wrong. We’re not watching a rerun of that ’70s show — and the misguided belief that we are could do a lot of harm.
People and especially Clotpoll, I need some advice.
I am contemplating purchasing another multi family building , it is eight units with a positive cash flow of $35,000.The building is in Penna. and I already own a six unit building 3 streets over. The owners want a little over $400,000 , and need cash because of their divorce. A perfect distress sale, always my favorite
They have never updated building, I think the stoves are from the 40’s , and 1 fridge is even the round front version. Paneled walls,shag carpet etc. They paid $275,000 in 1993, counting inflation only using the tables you people have , what is it worth?
I refuse to buy anything more in NJ, taxes are INSANE, I will probably put down 50% but will need $100,000 for updates.
I would appreciate any input/thoughts especially Clott, my age is against me {56}, but will probably hire more help on this one…stretched a little thin{ time wise only not financially} with the other 4 buildings.
Thanks in advance, JIM
Bradford & Bingley going the way of Northern Rock? The Brits’ housing bust seems to be worse than ours.
From Reuters:
Bradford & Bingley shares seen down 26 percent
Bradford & Bingley is expected to open as much as 26 percent lower on Monday as traders said a possible warning on 2008 profits would weigh on the shares.
The chief executive of Bradford & Bingley (BB.L: Quote, Profile, Research) quit on Sunday and the embattled lender announced plans for an unscheduled trading update, less than a month after surprising investors with an emergency cash call.
An expected announcement on Monday from Britain’s largest buy-to-let mortgage lender is likely to warn on 2008 profits, rekindling concerns about short-term prospects for the bank and the wider UK mortgage market, amid rising arrears and bad debts.
So I guess 2774 acres of developable land exists, and town finds it difficult to build 500 affordable houses in next 10 years.
Come on – you do not want thoue affordable houses to be a ghetto, do you??
Only a little bit over 5 acres/house… Clearly not up to township standards of living!!!!
What do we all mean by “affordable” housing? Do we mean high rise housing projects, or single family houses which working families can afford?
Seems like the market will correct, and then affordable housing will come along.
With all the bad news out there when will the home prices drop to affordable levels in NJ?
I’d say NJ is about 2-3 years behind california… So in 2-3 years from now we will have CA style market. Right now every realtor and home seller have told me:
” market will bounce back next year!”
With all the bad news out there when will the home prices drop to affordable levels in NJ?
My prediction – 2012 we will be at same affordability level where we were in 2000. That may be due to either prices coming down and income raises etc…
tbg: Seems like the market will correct, and then affordable housing will come along.
Not for the folks earning median 50K a year. Even otherwise market correction will take at least another 3 to 5 years to play out due to ARM and Option-Arm reset schedule peaking in 2012.
From Bloomberg:
Foreclosure Bus Tour, Sign of Housing Bust, Hits New York Area
The white bus with the magnetic sign saying “Long Island Foreclosure Tours” pulled up to a small home in East Meadow, Long Island, and spilled out its cargo: a dozen homebuyers looking to save $100,000 or more.
The driveway was cracked, and the vinyl siding sagged. There was a “No Trespassing” sign on the front door.
“You have some mold issues; you can definitely assume some water issues,” said Dean Miller, a broker on the tour. Then again, he said, the asking price for the 1951 Cape Cod at 68 Lois Court was $312,900, down from $457,101 in February.
The foreclosure tour, mobile proof of the U.S. housing bust, has rolled into the New York City market. For $75, prospective buyers on the Long Island version last month got velour banquettes, a supply of potato chips and Reese’s Peanut Butter Cups and visits to eight foreclosed homes, with a general contractor and home inspector in tow.
And the broker, Miller, who continued his pitch for the three-bedroom, one-bath Cape Cod. “You’re in a quiet cul-de-sac in a very nice community for $100,000 less than the surrounding homes,” he told the prospective buyers.
Potential bargains abound in the market. In April, 502 Nassau County homes, or one for every 913 in the county, entered the foreclosure process, more than double the number a year ago, according to RealtyTrac Inc., of Irvine, California.
Some say 2012 is when the end of days is…
From MarketWatch:
Cerberus sold most of Chrysler, GMAC equity: report
The fallout from the troubles at Chrysler and GMAC could extend beyond Cerberus Capital Management amid news the buy-out firm has sold “significantly” more than half its equity to about 90 investors, according to a Financial Times report Monday. Citing unnamed people familiar with the situation, the report said that after Cerberus invested $7.4 billion in both transactions when it took the companies private, it later sold the majority of its equity.
(28)
I would signed up for the tour had they had Crushed Valor banquettes rather then just regular “velour banquettes”.
Speaking of bank owned, any history on this house?
MLS # 2522077
The housing crisis is at an end in NY/NJ. Which means that of course we are not near the bottom. What it means is that sellers have come up with a dead spring season. They listed their houses and unless they were very agressive on pricing no one even made an offer. Buyers are on the sidelines and for now will only buy from agressively priced homes with 30 year fixed mortgages. The subprime crowd with their 3/27’s who bought in Spring 2005 to Spring 2007 will lose their houses or sit it out underwater for a decade or so. It will be an orderly fall. Then a flat line at depressed prices. Far as SUVs go, big deal. Back in the 1970s gas crises the big old Buick Electras and Ponitiac Catalinas you could not give away. Owners drove them to station, let kids drive local to HS until the things were rust buckets of 12-15 years old and they were crushed. Owners slowly switched to darts, mavericks, sentras and camrys for their daily drivers until gas became cheap again and we went on a SUV buying spree.
The markets won’t bounce back anymore than Cisco stock did after the 2000 meltdown.
In regards to post 19 the Capital Growth Management Funds have been returning 24% a year for the past ten years with only a $2,500 min. Put your 200K their and go to the beach and skip being a slumlord.
I don’t know why I’m dropping words lately?!
(28)
I would HAVE signed up for the tour had they had Crushed Valor banquettes rather then just regular “velour banquettes”.
Joey,
Purchased: 8/31/2005
Purchase Price: $360,000
MLS# 2464034
Listed: 11/27/2007
List Price: $449,000
Reduced to: $429,000
DOM: 183
Expired
Relisted MLS# 2522077
Listed: 5/29/2008
List Price: $319,000
DOM: 4
Active
Remarks: SALES PRICE AND COMMISSION SUBJECT TO LENDER’S APPROVAL
People making 50K a year should not own a home period. Their are rentals, coops and condos. 50K is not enough. We should not have subsidized housing for these people. Their is an old German saying “The baby brings the bread” Which loosely translated means when your balls are against the wall and you need the cash you will find a way to get the cash. Subsidizing the 50K crowd to put them in a house is like giving a crack head methodone.
Thank you so much. What are my odds of getting it for asking or less? Should i even bother? Looks ot be a great house.
John: You contradict your own first statement in second one.
The housing crisis is at an end in NY/NJ. Which means that of course we are not near the bottom.
How can crisis end before bottom is reached? NJ did not have exotic upswing like CA and FL, but it did have huge boom. Not until I see some price rises, I can call bottom has been reached. That is just basic analysis my friend. And till bottom is not reached, it is crisis.
Somehow this sounds like a Fox New Lampoon….
Kennedy to Undergo Brain Surgery
A crisis is when a asset is in a massive free fall. If RE falls another 20% in a slow bleed till 2012, big freaking deal that is not a crisis. A crisis would be if RE fell 20% in 90 days. The housing fall has been coming since Spring 2006 and when the Spring Selling season of 2007 was weak and Bear Hedge Funds collasped in July 2007 we all knew what was coming. Those who did not refinance, sell or hedge either had the assets to outlast or did not have plans on selling anytime in next ten years. The people who saw this coming and did not lube up may have pain, but that is not a crisis. That is simply Darwin’s Law.
But why is Kennedy visiting a proctologist?
re: #29 thatBIGwindow
Dec 21st 2012 is the day all of the bagholders
file for bankruptcy.
People who earn the MEDIAN INCOME should be able to buy a house on their own in a decent town. This could have been if it wasn’t for the bubble.
From the AP:
Heating oil sticker shock to hit New England
While people in most of the country may be worried about their summer air conditioning bills, many residents in the Northeast are way beyond that: They’re already thinking ahead to next winter’s heating bills.
And what those who heat their houses with oil are seeing is giving them sticker shock.
Retail heating oil prices have risen to more than $4.50 a gallon, nearly double what they were last year at this time. Some oil dealers have delayed rolling out their payment plans for next winter as the world oil markets continue their wild ride.
Consumers — already on edge with rising gasoline and food prices — will probably be outraged when they calculate their oil bills for next winter, said Jamie Py, president of the Maine Oil Dealers Association.
“There’ll be sticker shock,” Py said. “Nobody knows what the price will do. It could go up or the bubble could burst and it could come crashing back down.”
It is going to be very expensive this summer, between running the A/C and running the pool pump all day, and having original 1925 windows in the house. Hopefully we can swing new windows before the winter…
A crisis would be if RE fell 20% in 90 days.
So in your theory RE did not even have boom, forget bubble. RE prices did not rise 20% in 90 days as well.
Considering that most folks have significant leverage ( at least 4 times for 20% dp folks), your 20% drop actually translates significant large 80% loss in next 4 years.
Considering that most folks have significant leverage ( at least 4 times for 20% dp folks), your 20% drop actually translates significant large 80% loss in next 4 years
The median down payment for first time buyers in 2005 was 2%. Leverage amplifies small percentage gains or losses. For someone who put 2% down, a 10% drop in prices is a loss of 500% on your initial investment. This is clearly a crisis.
The median down payment for first time buyers in 2005 was 2%. Leverage amplifies small percentage gains or losses. For someone who put 2% down, a 10% drop in prices is a loss of 500% on your initial investment. This is clearly a crisis.
Wrong!!
It is only a loss of initial downpayment and credit scores…
With elimination of liability for taxes ther is no way home”owner” will loose more than their initial downpayment + whatever (if any) was spent on repaires/remodel.
Mahwah ACTIVE Comp Killer!
2602086 Sold
SLD 26 HIGH ST $970,000 5/30/2006
2814193 Withdrawn
ACT 26 HIGH ST $989,500 4/7/2008
PCH 26 HIGH ST $994,500 4/9/2008 (aka Duck Logic)
W-C 26 HIGH ST $994,500 6/1/2008
2822182 Active (same broker/agent)
ACT 26 HIGH ST $947,500 6/1/2008
Ike Obasi Wants to Sell You a House
At the peak of the boom in 2006, Obasi was selling $20 million a year worth of properties. His income had quadrupled. “Everyone I knew bought a home,” he says. “Uncles, cousins, my friends from SBC. If you married my cousin, you bought a home.”
The party ended last year, of course. Transactions have slowed to just a trickle and every one of those is a battle. “The banks changed the guidelines,” Obasi says. “Now it’s so hard for people to qualify for loans.”
Last year, the number of Realtors fell 1.5%, to 1.3 million. That number doesn’t reflect the likely thousands of part-timers who maintain ties to the business but earn a living from other jobs. The Realtors’ association figures the median member’s income fell 10%, to $42,000, last year. Experienced brokers, those in business 16 years or more, earned $70,000. Those in business two years or less earned just $10,000. The drop in membership, the association says, comes almost exclusively from newcomers to the profession.
43….why? That assumes home ownership is some right of simply having a job.
Teaneck ACTIVE Comp Killer!
2501440 Sold
SLD 79 VAN ARSDALE PL $411,450 2/13/2006
2740250 Withdrawn
ACT 79 VAN ARSDALE PL $399,000 10/2/2007
PCH 79 VAN ARSDALE PL $374,900 10/26/2007
PCH 79 VAN ARSDALE PL $349,900 11/16/2007
EXT 79 VAN ARSDALE PL $349,900 3/23/2008
PCH 79 VAN ARSDALE PL $330,000 4/3/2008
W-U 79 VAN ARSDALE PL $330,000 6/1/2008
2822146 Active
ACT 79 VAN ARSDALE PL $309,000 5/31/2008
From the Star Ledger:
So … how much will taxes go up?
Well, according to Kathryn Kinney, of Donohue, Gironda and Doria, the firm running the city’s finances, if the Hoboken really only has a budget gap of $11.7 million, then fourth quarter taxes on a home valued at $200,000 will be $2,787.92, up from $1,874.07 in the third quarter. That hike will stay in place for the first two quarters of 2009, said Kinney.
But, the state is likely to set the taxes even higher just to be safe, said several officials, including Hoboken Corporation Counsel Steve Kleinman.
Dear Realtors,
Just out of curiosity, I was wondering how the spring selling season turned out? It is, after all, the peak time of the year for selling so I’m sure you all made a killing, right?
And as you know, interest rates are at an all time low and there’s plenty of inventory to choose from. I’m sure all those pent up savy buyers got some real bargains, yes?
And, just so you know, I have my checkbook ready as I wait for that special charmer to fall into my lap so I can make family memories that goes along the security of homeownership!
Go back to the 1960s/1970s people moved to Brooklyn, Queens, Bronx when they got married and rented a rent stablized one bedroom and when kids came moved to a two bedroom and if Mom and Dad was lucky by age 40 they had a tiny cape in NJ/SI or LI. These were the clerks, civil service workers, cops and firemen. Only the college educated second or third generation white collar crowd could move to a house right away. People in the median income crowd need to take their lumps and do a little savings in their 20’s and 30’s, I am so sick of the 30 something two leased car, lawn service, time share crowd complaining.
Plus that fall in hope prices is just a fall from peak prices. Literally that would be only hurting first time buyers who bought in Spring 2005 to Spring 2007, big deal. They are young and they can afford their lumps. I know a million people who bought their first coop, condo starter in 1988 to 1990 and took a ten year bath. Saw plenty a studio for sale in 1992 with a couple with a baby desperate to get out but could not. They saved like crazy for a down payment of 20%, rented out the studio and finally sold in late 90’s or early 00’s when it was finally above water.
Who cares about leverage? People margined themselves to the max in the internet bubble and when it collasped those people got punished extra hard. The Leveraging crowd created the bubble in the first place.
In my back to the 80’s compaision. My old girlfriend bought a coop at the peak and put down 20% when interest rates were 10%, when she refinanced in 1993 to jump in on those low rates the bank made her pony up another 20% downpayment in order to refinance as she was underwater. Ouch. She did it and ate a lot of macroni and cheese and drove her freshman year college car into her 30’s. Big Deal. I think it helped her grow up and long run it was good for her. Funny thing her Mom told her to buy as she was a huge fan of leveraging herself to the max from 1979 right up to 1990. She almost lot it all and the site of her clipping coupons and scrubbing her own toliets in a three million dollar home was comical. But hey she hung on and so will these people with out any govt help.
Essex, why shouldnt a median income earner be able to buy a house? What do we work for then? 50k a year isnt earned by working for mininum wage.
Oil Isn’t the Worst of It
The biggest problem is still housing
Mortgage defaults are unlikely to top out anytime soon. And home prices are still in free-fall, creating more troubled mortgages and eroding household wealth.
Sorry, not everyone earns 100k prestigious minutes from NYC wall street blue ribbon salary, etc
#38 SG: I think John was being sarcastic.
Apologies if I’ve missed this info, but I’m still trying to catch up on the 400 posts I’ve missed over the weekend. Have we decided on the exact date for the next GTG – 13th or 14th? Stu and I need an executive decision so we can procure a babysitter.
And I think y’all should go to that LV RE blogger convention. In fact, I think Sept is perfect for a LV GTG. It would be a great place for a foreclosure tour, I think.
Saddle Brook ACTIVE Comp Killer!
2629497 Sold
SLD 57 CATHERINE AVE $379,900 2/22/2007
2802187 Withdrawn
ACT 57 CATHERINE AVE $389,900 1/16/2008
W-U 57 CATHERINE AVE $389,900 4/24/2008
2819394 Active
ACT 57 CATHERINE AVE $339,000 5/10/2008
PCH 57 CATHERINE AVE $325,000 6/1/2008
56…working for survival first….I bought my first home (and the one I live in now) when I was 37. Not saying everyone should wait that long….but being realistic, people who make $50k a year and have no savings should not buy a home in an expensive market.
#52 Rich: Huge comp killer!!!
2.5 incomes 2.5 income 2.5 income 2.5 income
50K = 125K
125K purchasing power =’s rental, small coop or condo.
50K is not enough to afford a house. The maint, oil and repairs will kill you plus you can’t get a good rate with that low income.
Essex: I agree with the no savings and expensive market statements.
I don’t make that much money, however, I bought a house in Dec 2006. Put 20% down, 30 year fixed. Make extra principal payments to the mortgage every month. It is possible if you live within your means. Right now, my mortgage is down to about $200,000
Must be like a form of RE water torture
2523940 Sold
SLD 407 COLONIAL BLVD $470,000 11/2/2005
Completely renovated inside and out
2643626 Active
ACT 407 COLONIAL BLVD $685,000 11/9/2006
PCH 407 COLONIAL BLVD $659,000 12/5/2006
PCH 407 COLONIAL BLVD $655,000 1/7/2007
PCH 407 COLONIAL BLVD $645,000 4/24/2007
PCH 407 COLONIAL BLVD $639,000 4/29/2007
PCH 407 COLONIAL BLVD $629,000 6/17/2007
PCH 407 COLONIAL BLVD $625,000 7/7/2007
PCH 407 COLONIAL BLVD $619,000 8/3/2007
PCH 407 COLONIAL BLVD $609,000 9/16/2007
PCH 407 COLONIAL BLVD $595,000 10/9/2007
PCH 407 COLONIAL BLVD $589,000 11/2/2007
PCH 407 COLONIAL BLVD $585,000 12/8/2007
PCH 407 COLONIAL BLVD $579,000 3/19/2008
PCH 407 COLONIAL BLVD $575,000 6/1/2008
Any one have any information on
16 Tulip lane
Short Hills / Milburn.
Don’t know if it is heading for foreclosure. I have some friends looking and wonder (sic) if they are making a mistake.
Can anyone with MLS access give me additional details for MLS ID# 2432172? I think its been on market for almost 1 year.
The house is in bridgewater.
Oradell ACTIVE Comp Killer!
2502381 Sold
SLD 841 MARTIN AVE $530,000 6/30/2005
2822206 Active
ACT 841 MARTIN AVE $450,000 6/2/2008
John – Your anecdotal stories are interesting but I don’t think they are even worth the digital ink it is written in, for making any meaningful decision.
The question on this board, always has been, Is right now a good time to buy house? If you believed that time is right now, you would not be on this blog posting. Now coming to your post,
Plus that fall in hope prices is just a fall from peak prices. Literally that would be only hurting first time buyers who bought in Spring 2005 to Spring 2007, big deal.
That is not big deal, until those folks bought houses in your neighborhood, jacked up prices and then are facing foreclosures. Then it is a big deal.
#69 Rich: I looked at that house in Feb of this year and since that time they also put in a brand new kitchen.
sky,
101 Old York
MLS# 2366296
Listed: 1/19/2007
OLP: $599,900
Reduced: $589,900
DOM: 193
Expired
MLS# 2432172
Listed: 8/3/2007
OLP: $569,900
Current Asking: $429,900
DOM: 304
Active
<Plus that fall in hope prices is just a fall from peak prices. Literally that would be only hurting first time buyers who bought in Spring 2005 to Spring 2007, big deal.
au contraire mon frair
Don’t forget the home equity extractions. How many longer term owners “cashed out” to buy vacations, cars, plasma tv’s and investment properties?
PGC,
Would need to look at public records. At first glance, it doesn’t appear so, purchased for $1.625m in 2003 so they’ve got more room to cut if need be.
Thanks Grim, been tracking that house for a year now. Interesting price drop.
From Marketwatch:
U.S. May ISM manufacturing index 49.6% vs 48.6% in April
U.S. May ISM manufacturing index above 48.7% consensus
Manufacturing activity rose unexpectedly in May, but remained weak. More soon.
#73 rent:How many longer term owners “cashed out” to buy vacations, cars, plasma tv’s and investment properties?
Every long term owner that I know has done somem combination of the above, some all of the above, and college tuition as well.
Tulip Lane is right by the railroad tracks.
Found a home we liked this weekend. It is a FSBO, but they also had it on the MLS. Owner said they were under contract in April but it fell through. Can anyone with MLS access give me a history on MLS # 20817641.
60 Glenmere, Brick, NJ
Also, the house almost across the street on 111 Salem is very similar and under contract. That MLS is/was 20708222m. Thanks in advance.
1. Went to 3 open houses in lower Westchester yesterday. It seemed we were pretty much the only people that showed up. About a month ago open houses in my area were overflowing with people. Did they just all decide to enjoy the nice weather elsewhere, or is the market dead now? What was the turnout in NJ like?
2. What about the Fannie Mae super low down payment loans starting June that were supposed to shower fresh money on all these poor homeowners. Any news?
From the AP:
Construction falls despite strength in other areas
Construction spending fell again in April as home building continued a more than two-year-long slide. The weakness was offset somewhat by an increase in non-residential activity which climbed to a record level.
The Commerce Department reported that construction activity fell by 0.4 percent in April after having been down 0.6 percent in March. Construction has not increased since last September as the building industry continues to be battered by the worst slump in housing in decades.
Private residential housing construction dropped by 2.3 percent last month, the 26th consecutive monthly decline. Private non-residential activity, however, rose by a strong 1.6 percent, pushing activity in this area to an all-time high as spending on shopping centers, office buildings and hotels all showed big gains.
The 0.4 percent drop in overall construction was slightly smaller than the 0.6 percent fall economists had been expecting and the decline in March of 0.6 percent had originally been reported as a larger 1.1 percent drop. The string of declines pushed overall construction spending down to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1.12 trillion, 3.9 percent below the pace in April 2007.
The decline in housing intensified, pushing spending in this area down to an annual rate of $442.57 billion, 20.8 percent below the level of a year ago.
Housing has been in a prolonged slump after a five-year boom which had pushed sales to record levels. Now builders are slashing production in an effort to get rid of a huge backlog of unsold homes. That inventory glut is being intensified by rising numbers of foreclosures which are dumping even more homes on the market.
What about the Fannie Mae super low down payment loans starting June that were supposed to shower fresh money on all these poor homeowners. Any news?
When you find out, let me know, banks are still asking my clients to cough up dough.
This article if rofl funny..atleast I found it to be.
It’s Not So Easy Being Less Rich
NANCY CHEMTOB, a divorce lawyer in Manhattan, has found that her days have become crammed seeing clients, all worried about how an economic downturn will affect their marriages.
They seem to have nothing to fret about: their net worths range from $5 million to $1 billion. A blip in the markets shouldn’t send their chateau-size Park Avenue co-ops to foreclosure or exile them to Payless Shoes.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/01/fashion/01rich.html?em&ex=1212552000&en=d3fe3d03622d334b&ei=5087
Subprime Finds New Victim as Muni Defaults Triple: Joe Mysak
May 30 (Bloomberg) — The amount of municipal bonds that have defaulted this year is already more than triple what it was for all of 2007.
And who could doubt there’s more bad news on the way?
So far this year, $736 million in municipal bonds have defaulted. That doesn’t necessarily mean they didn’t pay investors; they may have just drawn down reserves. That’s what happens just before they stop making payments to bondholders.
pricesstillskyhigh Says:
June 2nd, 2008 at 10:28 am
This article if rofl funny..atleast I found it to be.
It’s Not So Easy Being Less Rich
NANCY CHEMTOB, a divorce lawyer in Manhattan, has found that her days have become crammed seeing clients, all worried about how an economic downturn will affect their marriages.
Price: I know her…
What was the turnout in NJ like?
Went to an open house on Sunday and we were the only ones who showed up. I’ll be honest, everything looked great, too good to be true and then we were told that it had an oil tank and it was underground, under the driveway to be exact…deal breaker.
Re 70 – I pray to God everynight that I lose money on my house. For anyone who wants to trade up houses the more your house fall the better. Heck if my houses falls to a value of 100K that means I can buy a MTV Cribs house for 300K. Not a bad deal. Right now the only MTV Cribs house I can afford is 50 cents place out in Dix Hills that he torched to the ground this weekend to get his Ho out of it.
It was totally irrational in the 2003-2006 era that people bought capes for 200K and sold it for 500K and traded up. The trade up house went up way way more than 300K your pos cape rose in value.
Historically, it is never a good time to buy a house. Houses have underperformed stocks for the last 100 years.
The budget should be balanced, the treasury refilled, public debt reduced, the arrogance of officialdom tempered and controlled, and the assistance to foreign lands curtailed, lest Rome become bankrupt.
— Cicero, Roman statesman
http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/quotes/m/marcustull163183.html
Dear Realtors,
I’m still waiting for your response. This site gets thousands of hits a day, where are you? Please give us the data that shows now is a great time to buy. In fact, please supply the data that showed that it was a great time to buy in 2005, also. Afterall, I was told that many, many times in 2005 by members of the NAR. So, I await your response.
Blanche Evans said it, it must be true.
#74 Grim,
Is there an MLS history?
The $28K taxes are painful.
Paul
Off topic: spend Sunday early morning at K-mart in line for a Nintendo “wii-fit” game with 15 others.
Observations:
1. Despite the advertisement K-mart didn’t have the game, maybe thanks to the weak USD Nintendo rather ships the systems to EUR & GBP countries.
2. It seems people still have spare money to spend on these toys. Or is it that playing games at home beats spending for gas & entertainment outside?
Here is one incredible Real Estate overview; with tie-ins to Nasdaq; Dow; Interest Rates; etc. Great graphs and charts for real estate history buffs. Enjoy!
http://patrick.net/housing/contrib/JSurridge.pdf
trader :80
60 Glenmere in Brick….late 60’s colonial, on a .37 Acre lot. I see it has the granite & stainless treatment in the kitchen, finished basement and an in-ground pool. Also, that’s a nice part of Brick near Princeton Ave.
But I see recent sales of much newer colonials in Brick for around $390K.
111 Salem shows up as Under Contract and last list price was $399K. It has been on the market off and on since 2006 and listed as high as $519K.
Now that’s a price drop!!!
grim,
Did you win?
I just looked at that leaderboard, and you were No. 1.
[79] and pgc
Re: Tulip Lane
Spouse (briefly) considered that house and thought foreclosure also. Don’t know what her basis for thinking it was.
RE agents, is it too early to begin a Buyer’s Agent relationship with an agent, if one has no plans to buy for more than one year?
Clot, do you have an e-mail address listed on your blog? Don’t worry, I’m not going to ask you to be my buyer’s agent, although how would you know? Huh? I almost stopped in your office on Saturday. But I was afraid of mentioning peas or Crush Valor and having you recognize me.
UK Telegraph:
http://tinyurl.com/52lded
“As banks look to shore up their balance sheets in the wake of the credit squeeze, Philip Aldrick asks whether it is all short-term trickery”
I knew that Santino was going to have to go through all this. And Fredo — well —
(then, after he sits besides Michael)
— Fredo was — well — But I never — I never wanted this for you. I work my whole life, I
don’t apologize, to take care of my family. And I refused — to be a fool — dancing on the
string, held by all those — bigshots. I don’t apologize — that’s my life — but I thought that —
that when it was your time — that — that you would be the one to hold the strings. Senator –
Corleone. Governor – Corleone, or something…
How long before today’s granite and silestone become yesterday’s boomerang formica?
I give it 8 years.
“If comps dont stay high, poor people might move in and destroy the neighborhood”
River Edge residents seem to think this way…
Smaller Commercial Colleges feel the pinch.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/24926385
I have long surmised that the smaller commercial colleges (those with campuses), which seem to have standards plummeting faster than the price on a handyman’s special, will start disappearing. If banks are not lending to the colleges, and the students cannot get loans, are the bond agencies far behind? Can a state EFA justify floating bonds for institutions that are a “13th grade,” just drawing down endowments and pushing idiots out their doors in caps and gowns?
As we used to say in banking, this market is unconcentrated and in need of consolidation. So some private smaller colleges will shut their doors or merge with equals or larger, established universities. I think it has been happening already, but not at any significant level. That is gonna change, especially in a prolonged downturn.
my $0.02
Thanks Fiddy.
Just got my pre-approval from the bank and am going to make an offer. Hoping 12% under list won’t be dismissed.
BTW – I also went to some open houses in Fair Haven. I love the town. But $500,000 for a 3br that I’m going to hit my head on the ceiling going to the basement or the second floor? I’m shelving that dream.
Nom,
Perhaps the opposite?
A prolonged downturn points to an increase in enrollment for those seeking to change career or enhance employability. Recession might very well be their savior.
After years of seeing “Million Dollar Club” on every show-and-teller’s business card, I was wondering what the next generation of realtor business cards will say? Ideas anyone?
Any info on MLS #2807831 in Hillsdale? Address, time on market, history, etc.? Thanks.
NJLifer [106],
Their card will read, “Shampoo Technician”
Has anyone dealt with NJ’s CORE (Clean Energy Rebate) program?
I am looking into setting up a 7kW turbine on my cousins property.
The state pays roughly $3.00kW based on some standard calculations. I have contacted them multiple times and provided my rebate estimates, however the wouldn’t verify the number.
Based on my estimates for a 7kW turbine, the state gives you a 20K rebate. It costs about that much to buy and install the turbine. This seems like it is too good to be true. Blogs claim NJ has the best clean energy Rebate program, but I can’t imagine them giving me 20K.
Anyone?
Jill (107),
ACT 93 CONKLIN AVE $434,500 2/26/2008
PCH 93 CONKLIN AVE $418,900 3/25/2008
PCH 93 CONKLIN AVE $409,900 4/24/2008
No other MLS sales history
Taxes: $7,281.72
Jill,
59 DOM
Rich #66: I know that house; I drive by it at least once a week. I’ve been saying for the last year that no one’s going to touch it till it gets below $500K. Of course, now, I’d have to revise that to $450K. Realtor posts no photos on the web, talks about the renovations, but from the outside it looks like a standard Washington Twp. ranch — there are dozens of these in the neighborhood, many with better exterior “renovations” than this one has.
Ooops! Make that 95 DOM!
Jill (112),
If you go to NJMLS.com you’ll find photos.
Click Property Search, choose Bergen, cut and paste 2643626 in the MLS box at top and click Lookup
Thanks, all….looks like a nice little house. I just convinced my friend to wait a year, but this house might be right up her alley.
Feedback please!!
If the RE mkt is headed for a bottom or affordability levels are going back to historic levels in the upcoming years, how does putting off your purchase help assuming you are presently renting for 25k a year (the rentals in Hoboken and other places in NNJ)? I see 25k as a substantial amount not to mention a potential year end tax ding too. In the end I have no doubt prices will fall (so I totally get the wait mentality I mean I have infact been stalling my purchase since 2004) but I would love to hear opinions on how you reconcile this even with revised asking prices that are in the mkt now. For example if you look at the loss on the sold and active listings it looks staggering. But for homes in the 400-750K range isn’t there something to be said about the amount of money spent on rent, money potentially saved on taxes, and home equity buildup if you get a decent deal now or next 6-12 months?
For example from Rich in #69. That Oradell home also sold for 330000 in 00 and 405000 in 02. I mean I get a fair value of approx using the 2000 price and 3% appreciation so that gives me 420 and the asking is now 450. So is this a bad deal?
I have not seen the house and do not know what condition it is in but it looks okay. Am I seeing something incorrectly?
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/080602/usa_dollar_paulson.html
Everybody drink.
You only get a tax break on the mortgage interest which does not increase your equity. For Joe Blow, spending 20K on interest income to get back 6K come tax time is silly. Our next president, whoever he or she is will have the AMT monster to deal with. So coming soon to all of us will be the fact that RE taxes won’t be deductable as all of you will be in AMT.
Plus the tax adavantage of RE is best suited for higher income people who have already maxed out 401K, FSA, Transist Chek, 529 etc. and are still in a high tax backet. Joe Blow in 28% bracket who does not max out 401k or even contribute to a FSA are the ones buying houses for tax savings and it makes little sense purely from a tax play.
Finally, unless you plan on pre-paying their is very little home equity build up the first few years, when the same house is 25K cheaper next year you might be better off.
Seller’s disclosure question for Realtors:
If a big problem is discovered after home inspections resulting on cancellation of contracts, etc. How can you ensure that the sellers will disclose it next time?
To me the seller’s disclorures are just BS yes/no/not aware of – questions / answers. Is there anything that forces the seller to really disclose the problems or they are just hoping that the next fool overlooks/misses the problems.
Based on my estimates for a 7kW turbine, the state gives you a 20K rebate. It costs about that much to buy and install the turbine.
I have dealt with them.
The maximum rebate is 30% of the project cost.
But John for a 420k Oradell example home with 6% interest rate, 20% down your monthly expense is $2681, The principal gain on the year will be approx $4k which is nothing. And after taxes deductibility of mtg interest should be $20k interest first year, -5k std deduction and getting back about 30% of that which gives you an effective $576 break on your monthy expense at the end of the year. That brings the effective cost of the house to 2100 or the same as someone spending 25k a year in rent. And 25k in rent gets you 2bd, 1 bath rental in hoboken or other rental vs. the 3bd 3 bath ranch in oradell.
Again I am not arguing for the Oradell home I just want to understand the logic that helps me get grimmer as I want to be…..
I understand you could make money on the 80K downpayment that I did not consider. But is that what most of the people are thinking as the reason to delay the purchase?
Re 121, if that house’s monthly costs with the 20% down is less than rent and you plan to live their go for it. I only get a lousy 2K off my taxes at year end cause I own a house which is nothing next to the 15K I put in the 401K. I spent 10K on cement work last week which wiped out 5 years of tax savings. Hardly very effective as a tax dodge.
Your first home only really helps you for 5-10 years with taxes. You income rises each year and the interest portion of mortgage falls year. That 200K cape with a 150K mortgage someone bought in 1998 when they were making 50K might have helped them a lot to save taxes but that same person in 2008 making 150K it is peanuts come tax time.
2nd mortgage delinquencies go parabolic..
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/files/1st_2nd_mortgages_citi.PNG
Stu, #101
You said:
How long before today’s granite and silestone become yesterday’s boomerang formica?
My mother and brother both got new kitchens around 1992 with granite.
If anything, by the time the bubble was full throttle, granite had been around for a while.
It’s nice, if done right – if the color of the granite goes with the wood and the fixtures.
But, in a lot of instances, it doesn’t quite relate – wrong color, or wrong kind of wood for granite.
#116 jomebuyer: For what it is worth I have seen the inside of the hosue, ans it needs a ton of work.
They did put a brand new kitchen in since I saw it this past February. Put the whole outside needs to be painted (assuming you do not want to reside it). All th windows need to be replaced, the batroom is incredibly dated. Lots of wall paper and old carpeting. It does have potential as the LR and DR are large, and there is a family room.
But again all very old and not maintained.
The upstairs bedroms are incrediby small dark and dingy. The 3rd bedroom practically non existent, with a door onone wall that leads to an unfinished attic.
#106
After years of seeing “Million Dollar Club” on every show-and-teller’s business card, I was wondering what the next generation of realtor business cards will say? Ideas anyone?
Ha! I was just thinking about this yesterday. I mean you only have to sell like what, 2 1/2 homes right?
Rich RE:#66
High street,Mahwah comp killer
High Street is a tale of 2 streets. It’s in Fardale but not a top spot, it’s a ho hum street that had a cul de sac pushed out in the late 90’s and Mcmansions went up, so you’ll find a huge disparity in the prices on that street. Totally renovated 2 High Street went for over 1 million in 6/07 and the house next door to that just sat and sat thru many price reductions and evenually became a rental, all on the same street.
RentinginNJ,
When was the last time you dealt with the rebate program? They have recently revamped the CORE program with new incentives.
101…I’d have kept the boomerang formica….go into a really well made kitchen…it has a very seductive quality about it. One that will make you pay the ask.
[105] Grim,
a fair point, and one that is very true of professional grad programs (law, MBA), but I question whether the bump they get from older bach. degree-seekers is enough to keep the wheels spinning.
Who do you love?
Bo Diddley, dead at 79.
CitiMortgage Chief Beckmann Leaving at End of June
Bill Beckmann, president of CitiMortgage will leave the unit by the end of June, MortgageWire has learned.
Nom Deplume Says:
Bo Diddley, dead at 79.
Do you think any of the current crop of musicians will be remembered when they are that age?
131. RIP. I peed in the stall next to him once…..and talked to the man….very cool fellow. Very very talented.
3b,
Glad to know you have seen it.
I am not so interested but for conversation sake.
What do you think the house should sell for?
I see those repairs being 7k residing, 16k 2 renewed baths, and sweat labor, for wallpaper and painting and other random stuff. So maybe you could make it 30k for updating. If thats the case and your going to live in it. What price or what would the posters on this board need to even start to get interested?
Bo Diddley, a founding father of rock ‘n’ roll whose distinctive “shave and a haircut, two bits” rhythm and innovative guitar effects inspired legions of other musicians, died Monday after months of ill health. He was 79.
Diddley died of heart failure at his home in Archer, Fla., spokeswoman Susan Clary said. He had suffered a heart attack in August, three months after suffering a stroke while touring in Iowa. Doctors said the stroke affected his ability to speak, and he had returned to Florida to continue rehabilitation.
The legendary singer and performer, known for his homemade square guitar, dark glasses and black hat, was an inductee into the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame, had a star on Hollywood’s Walk of Fame, and received a lifetime achievement award in 1999 at the Grammy Awards. In recent years he also played for the elder President Bush and President Clinton.
Diddley appreciated the honors he received, “but it didn’t put no figures in my checkbook.”
from previous thread,
Interesting trends around us…a realtor told us of a home for sale with no sign and no advertising (she called it a a silent sale) Price way over a peak in my mind. Also, another one on line with a sign out front, definetly priced higher than I would have imagined. What is going on? Do they fear prices will drop by a higher percentage so the jack it up even more? Is a silent sale to manage inventory?
1:00 pm : A bad day in the stock market just got worse with Standard & Poor’s announcing in the last half hour that it cut its debt ratings on investment banks Merrill Lynch (MER 41.83, -2.09), Lehman Bros. (LEH 33.90, -2.91) and Morgan Stanley (MS 42.65, -1.58). Separately, the outlook for JPMorgan Chase (JPM 41.78, -1.22) and Bank of America (BAC 33.25, -0.76) was lowered to negative from stable.
These ratings action were driven in part by concerns surrounding the weak U.S. economy and the earnings environment.
The major indices dropped to new session lows in the wake of the news regarding Standard & Poor’s action.
Yves gone as well, a sad day for the pant suit.
A woman in work told me a story about her and her female co-workers launching a pant-suit rebellion in the late 60s. Apparently, the firm required women to wear skirts/dresses to work as part of the dress code.
Who knew? An interesting anecdote about fashion driving social change.
138 Silent sales were developed by the ancient Crimeans and are designed to maintain voting rights in the Turkish Senate.
#137
Silent sale
What is that?
When you don’t want your friends and neighbors to know that you are losing the house?
pant-suit rebellion — Great Name for a band.
I hear they are headlining with Crush Valor next weekend.
I don’t know why I find this sort of thing so fascinating.
http://www.designerhistory.com/historyofashion/saint.html
His Smoking (tuxedo) jacket was a shock when it was introduced in 1966. A woman was banned in the 60’s from dining at the Plaza hotel in New York, because she was wearing a YSL pantsuit. His pants and jackets became a statement for a new generation of women, and he said “I want to shock people, force them to think.”
Pantsuit…
Shocking…
Can . Not . Compute
#135 homebuyer: Well I am cheap so I do nto and I mean this seriously think it is worth more than 350K, in fact the 330K price IMO in 200 was too high.
One final note, the house is incredibly close to the neighboring hosues on either side.
When you go into the back yard, there is absolutely no privacy betweenn you and neighbors on either side.
No, Donny, these men are nihilists. There’s nothing to be afraid of.
Homebuyer,
You forgot the property tax. And you can not ignore the opportunity cost on your downpayment. Some properties need to pay association fee too.
The last thing, you don’t really get back 6k on 20k in tax even if you are at the top tax bracket, it’s usually less than that in reality.
grim (28)-
“For $75, prospective buyers on the Long Island version last month got velour banquettes, a supply of potato chips and Reese’s Peanut Butter Cups and visits to eight foreclosed homes…”
Our NJ foreclosure tour should feature cigars, Jagermeister and plenty of honest commentary. Velour seats? Our version would have John’s “valor seats”.
I was walking by the Metro Homes sales office on Washington St. today, and there was a sign in the door that said “Contact Century 21 for assistance”. Guess it’s not worth it to have staff there anymore.
We can set one up pretty easily. I know a guy who owns a bus tour company.
You know, setting up a short sale tour would probably be even easier.
I’d work a deal with the listing agents of all the properties, in exchange for bringing a busload of people by, they need to provide the catering.
Lottsa companies forbid pant suits for a long time, I remember back in 1991 my boss sent a girl home who wore a pant suit to work all the way from NYC to LI to get a proper business outfit and if she did not make it back by a certain time she would be docked.
My sister worked for AIG that was so strict that even when she was nine months pregant she had to wear a ladies business suit (no pantsuit) with high heals (no flats unacceptable) and make-up to work.
She was in WTC pregant on 9/11 and getting out with highheals and a skirt eight month pregant was quite a site. BTW AIG still kept the dress code after 9/11.
I guess you can’t trust a women in pants or something like that.
Most ladies under 30 don’t even own a matching business suit, just pant suits and a dress with a blouse on a rare occasion. Takes the fun out of being a construction worker on windy wall street. Trouble with pant suits is once you get to middle age with a few too many pounds all the ladies start to look like Rosie O’Donnell.
Shots of Jaeger on the short sale bus tour? I’m in.
Speaking of Jager-bombs, GTG update?
Someone just pick a date, Friday or Saturday?
I have a feeling that Saturday early evening will probably be the best time for everyone. We also need a gold coast location. Hoboken? Where in Hoboken?
SG (85)-
“The amount of municipal bonds that have defaulted this year is already more than triple what it was for all of 2007.”
Who was it who said a few weeks ago that muni bond insurance is unnecessary?
Unnecessary, if you think just gouging the taxpayers in a municipality is a fitting remedy when their town defaults.
Somehow, I’m seeing a corrleation between this and my holding off on buying real estate
Men prefer being solo over a bad marriage: study
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080602/lf_nm_life/books_bachelors_dc;_ylt=Aq_qRbqO3OyI8eKv.1ziHqV34T0D
Pat (98)-
A good agent should not mind starting to work with you now, even if your timeline runs out a year or more.
I think my website has a link to my e-mail with the address hidden. If you’re looking for a referral in your parts, I’d be happy to connect you with a good agent. Sorry, I don’t represent anyone who I meet through this blog. You wouldn’t have to mention valor, pant-up demand or bagholders for me to know it, either. :)
139 grim
“Apparently, the firm required women to wear skirts/dresses to work as part of the dress code.”
This was true of my firm until 1999.
hoboken? How about we meet on Jackson Street
I saw Bo Diddley play at the BB King Club in Times Square about 5 years ago. Kind of underwhelming, but I’m sure seeing him 50 years ago would have been mind-blowing.
Did anyone see that piece in the NYTimes Real Estate section on Sunday about how hard it is to get a mortgage now? Apologies if this has already been discussed, but I kept reading the article waiting to see what was so strict about the new financing (couldn’t tell). I ended up thinking that if people think mortgages are strict now, it just goes to show how incredibly loose they were up until recently
Dan (119)-
Great question. Most times, the house goes right back on the market, with the old disclosure being offered up again.
However, there are a couple of neat tricks agents can pull to make sure the public has a chance to know about a major defect when a home is re-listed:
1. If the defects rise to the level of being code violations, the agent can simply threaten to notify the township of what’s going on. Very often, this scares sellers so much, they fix the problem and/or obtain permits retroactively. When these violations involve failed septics, then it gets really fun, as a shot septic, IMO, can be interpreted as a public health issue. If the local health dept agrees, they can evict the seller and charge per diem fines until the septic is fixed.
2. Notify the broker-of-record of the entire company (e.g.- Jim Weichert)- in writing- of the property defect. Carbon copy both the local board and MLS. At that point, the company has no choice other than to disclose the defect when the home is relisted.
Laurie (127),
Doesn’t matter.
The buyer sets the market and someone thought that it was worth $970k in 2006
Now the buyers are apparently saying it isn’t worth $948k in 2008.
Parking is horrible in Hoboken – FYI – I don’t care but just keep that in mind.
164
Parking is indeed awful in Hoboken. It is, however, easily accessible by mass transit.
Homebuyer (116),
I just saw and replied to your email.
Basically, I don’t have a magic formula that I’m using. Just something I call comparative experience. The same method I would use to purchase an antique.
Hoboken, Satuday, June 14, Perfect
I can take the train from Westwood and meet up with 3B in River Edge.
Skep (161)-
Unless you have 720 FICO and 10% down, the penalties and add-ons are crushing. The procto-exam you’ll get when applying will also make your eyeballs bleed.
#167 Rich: Sounds like a plan.
Local area anecdotes.
I have mentioned here before that I have been closely following a specific type of house (4 br, 2.5 ba, CHC, .5 acre, 2 CG, FP, Bsment, taxes ~8-10K) in one particular neighborhood in NE Monmouth for about 6 months now. These homes typically sold in the low-mid 700’s at peak and are now selling in the low-mid 600’s (if updated and move in ready), mid to high fives if they need work.
From ~Nov 07 up until March 31st this year, there were about 12-15 closings that averaged ~11 % off OLP, with an average of >120 DOM. There was not a single closing or contract that I know of in April or the first few weeks of May. However, there have been 4 closing since around May 12th and there are another 6-7 under contract. The DOM for all of these are all less than 30 days. Of the four closings, they closed at ~2% off OLP. However, the OLP’s are significantly lower than the previous 5-6 months for these comparable homes in my neighborhood.
Thus, it seems that some sellers have gotten the picture and OLP’s have come down significantly from peak expectations, and buyers were willing to pay near asking if they are at or below comps. I was very surprised to see so many recent closings and contracts though, it appears people are willing to jump for a deal (real or perceived).
In talking with my realtor who is feeding me the data, she said that she has seen some activity pick up with young families (both working, small children) and many are first time buyers. She mentioned that homes that are selling are nicely updated and move in ready. If anything needs to be done (however minor), buyers are demanding write downs and are getting them or walking away. She said most sales are from people who have to sell – relo’s, deaths, divorce, retirees, etc. Very few are putting their house up just to see what they can get, very few trader uppers. She believes credit is not a major issue and much better than even 3 or 4 months ago, but she admittedly mainly deals with more affluent customers, or young couples who are both working.
Anyway, maybe it’s a dead cat bounce, or maybe some sellers are wising up, especially if they need to sell in a hurry. I am a bit shocked to see that some folks are still buying when they see prices drop even a few percent when it seems certain that if you hold out you can get a better deal. I guess the romanticization of home ownership is still quite prevalent.
When was the last time you dealt with the rebate program? They have recently revamped the CORE program with new incentives.
Very recenty. I just don’t deal with behind the meter wind very often, as there isn’t much of it in NJ. Local permitting is the biggest issue. In fact, one guy actually has his turbine shut down when the town recinded the permit after the fact.
JBJB,
Anyway, maybe it’s a dead cat bounce, or maybe some sellers are wising up, especially if they need to sell in a hurry. I am a bit shocked to see that some folks are still buying when they see prices drop even a few percent when it seems certain that if you hold out you can get a better deal. I guess the romanticization of home ownership is still quite prevalent.
There will always be some sales. I think a lot of people have become accustomed to “buying on the dips” in the stock market, and think the same dynamic will work in housing.
Essex Says:
June 2nd, 2008 at 1:08 pm
131. RIP. I peed in the stall next to him once…..and talked to the man….very cool fellow. Very very talented.
—————–
not at the same time I hope!!
But RIP indeed, can’t get that Bo Diddley beat out of my head today.
Bank vendor loses storage tapes containing confidential data
http://www.fudzilla.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=7629&Itemid=1
In yet another story of an institution losing confidential customer data, officials from the Bank of New York Mellon Corporation have confirmed that a box of unencrypted data storage tapes containing the confidential and private information of more than 4.5 million customers was lost more than three months ago. As in other stories recently reported, the data was lost by a third-party vendor during transport to an off-site storage facility.
The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation last week informed the Connecticut State Attorney General’s Office that tapes belonging to its BNY Mellon Shareowner Services division were lost in transport by the offsite storage firm, Archive America, on February 27th. It is quite interesting to note that the Bank waited more than three months to report this incident. The missing backup tapes were reported as including customer names, birthdays, Social Security numbers and other information from both customers of BNY Mellon and the People’s United Bank of Bridgeport, Connecticut.
Archive America refused to comment about the missing backup data storage tapes, claiming confidentiality agreements prohibited it from doing so. BNY Mellon Shareowner Services indicated that it has begun notifying affected clients. As in similar cases of hijacked data storage information, the Bank claims that none of the unencrypted data has been accessed or used.
The Attorney General of Connecticut, Richard Blumenthal, was outraged by the Bank’s offer of a year of free credit monitoring to those affected as “grossly inadequate.” He also expressed anger at the Bank for not promptly notifying customers of the security breach. And apparently some of the data tapes in the transport van did arrive safely at the Archive America storage facility, while the Bank has not explained how only some of the tapes were stolen.
“The loss of this tape – so far unrecovered and unremedied – is inexplicable and unacceptable,” wrote Blumenthal. “I am especially concerned by the delay in informing customers, possibly heightening the risks of wrongdoing.”
Kind of makes you wonder how a huge banking institution that manages billion of dollars and investments can screw up something as routine as backup data storage. Is the Bank so cheap that they are cutting corners with their data storage practices? It is hard to image that at some point this data will not be accessed and used as the goldmine that it is to create phony driver’s licenses, phony social security cards, passports, credit card application fraud, etc.
At least 40 individuals whose data was compromised have banded together and filed a class action lawsuit against the Bank, asking for seven years’ of free credit monitoring, credit insurance and other damages.
#170, JBJB
Sometimes it is just time to move. Family gets bigger, you get sick of where you live, etc. I would imagine a number of these people probably had already decided to purchase a home and had been looking for some time and had held out for some time. With so much uncertainty about the market and conflicting mumbo jumbo from the media I would imagine there a number of people that just jump in, price be damned. Most of us here on this board are pretty in tune with what is happening in the market but I am going to go out on a limb and say that most buyers just do not equate a possible (most likely probable) continued future decline in real estate to actually mean something to them. It all goes back to my feeling that we as a people do a horrible job with anything that entails future planning. Since the future is so uncertain when it comes to housing I think people just dive in a hell of a lot more than any rational person who studies housing trends could ever imagine.
Hell, I read this board regularly and have always believed we were in for a major correction but I still bought in late ’06 (for a great price of course). If it can happen to me, I dare say it can happen to anyone. Every person has his/her limits.
I am glad I got to see certain legends before they went to their rewards, but always in what seemed to be low settings.
Saw Bo Diddley play a bbq cook-off in Boston many years ago, which had to be a downer of an event for him. It seemed as if he was phoning it in, and we didn’t stick around for more than one set. Unfortunate, really.
Also got to see BB King at my alma mater during its famed Spring Concert freshman year. He was opening for Bonny Raitt (before she got better known). IMO, there was something not right about BB King opening for Bonnie Raitt.
Technical question: what’s a reasonable price for an IDX feed(gsmls) for a website?
I went to an open house (nice house, great town, fantastic street). The realtor told me it was a short sale (I never saw it on realtytrac). I was the only one there in the late afternoon – at the end of my visit the realtor put out her hands and faked a cry and said “c’mon, just buy it. stop paying rent and paying someone else’s mortgage blah blah blah”. I kinda laughed and said are you OK? She said she was sick of people finding fault and complaining. I hadn’t complained, I just didn’t give the asking price a big open mouth kiss. Funny part is it has been on gsmls for 3 days, and isn’t insanely priced. I guess it was just the cumulative build up of the spring on the poor woman.
#93
I know that video games get a bad rap, but they really are the most economically viable source of entertainment. Case in point. I picked up Grand Theft Auto 4 over a month ago for $60. I just finished the games story line, and still only have 75% of the game completed, and have logged 41.5 hours. So far, that’s $1.44/hr, not including the cost of the hardware, which will also be down to a few cents an hour after I’m done with it.
176 – Bo Diddley used to do local commercials for a car dealership that was near his home in Florida, it always made me a little sad when I’d see them (though I was told the dealership was owned by a family member of his, but it was still sad).
#168
“Unless you have 720 FICO and 10% down, the penalties and add-ons are crushing. The procto-exam you’ll get when applying will also make your eyeballs bleed.”
Clot– so people with good credit and solid downpayments are still getting loans, right? It’s not the case that people who have really put themselves in a position to buy a home are being denied (that’s what I’ve been hearing, at least). I’ve also heard that a lot of lenders are requiring 3 months of expenses in cash on hand in addition to the 10% down– are you seeing this as well?
Mike
Totally agree. I was just a bit suprised at the sudden increase in contracts and closings, which seems to correlate with only a modest decrease in asking prices (of course the data set is so small it could just be a coincidence). I think we are also missing a certian hidden percentage in asking prices that is coming from buyers demanding and getting repairs and upgrades from sellers that they might not have gotten even a year ago.
JBJB (170),
I think the information you gave can not be described as anecdotal. You provided some interesting data.
Now I don’t know the area so I can’t comment on the prices but using the price range you provided, isn’t that about 15% decrease from peak?
And if these homes are move in ready compared to a few years ago as you mentioned, what percentage of value is that? (THe last one was rhetorical)
I am a bit shocked to see that some folks are still buying when they see prices drop even a few percent when it seems certain that if you hold out you can get a better deal.
I don’t see it that way and I don’t believe in trying to time the market. Value is set by the buyer. If that buyer can afford* the home and has no plans on moving in 15 years, why not buy?
Do I feel prices will keep falling? Yes.
How much and how long? I don’t know.
*Truly afford the home. And now that the banks are back to using normal lending standards that I recall from the 90’s these buyers should be able to afford these homes.
Re: #174
I got a letter today from Mellon that I was affected by that situation. My only connection with that institution was a home equity loan on an investment property that was paid off over 10 years ago. WTF?
You know, setting up a short sale tour would probably be even easier.
Only if we get a group photo in front of Donald’s house with a NJREREPORT bus in the background.
From the front page of MarketWatch
More subprime bear meat
U.S. stocks slide, snapping four-day winning streak
S&P downgrades brokers, adding to worries about the financial industry
U.S. stocks on Monday extended their first decline in five sessions as Standard & Poor’s cut its debt ratings on three large brokerages, adding to earlier losses stemming from upheavals at Wachovia Corp. and Washington Mutual Inc.
The ratings agency disclosed its downgrades involving Lehman Brothers Inc., Merrill Lynch & Co. Inc. and Morgan Stanley in a release, citing “the potential for more write-offs.”
“Concerns in the financial sector have been in the spotlight, following trouble at the U.K. lender Bradford & Bingley, while management shake-ups at Wachovia and Washington Mutual have unsettled the markets as well,” said analysts at Action Economics.
#175,
I agree that sometime in the future I will say enough is enough and just buy if I get the house I want in the town I want for a decent price even if it isnt the absolute bottom. Not to say I am made of money and want to loose some big % but one needs to live life and there is value to that even if it doesnt show up in your bank account at least for me consider my recent life events. But thats the rule for my primary home. I am sure some of you disagree and think they know how to call a bottom and for those of you that do. I would love to hear how you are going to ascertain that “blood in the streets” is now here. What do you look at to tell u that??
we are in the middle of the big down year right now. It is like 1991. Do not buy now! Even waiting 1 year will make a huge difference
Although some here will never buy… I don’t care if my house loses value, I didn’t buy it to make a profit. I bought it to have a place to live.
I would love to hear how you are going to ascertain that “blood in the streets” is now here. What do you look at to tell u that??
Well, for Grim, his wife tells him!
3B (169),
#167 Rich: Sounds like a plan.
I’ll be the guy in the Crush Valor shirt.
Grim,
Please bring a video camera with you on the day your wife shouts out that “there is blood in the streets” and post it on Youtube
That would melt my heart.
Now this would be the way to meet up with BBB in style:
http://www.moparts.org/moparts/carshow/2002/1/valiant_dave.html
True it is difficult to time the top and the bottom of a stock. Fortunately, due to the slow nature of real estate value movement, the bottom will most likely be a U shaped and not V shaped. This is not technical analysis, so much it is based on the historical nature residential real estate cycles. Although you might not nail the bottom, it is not difficult to come within say 5% or so from it.
If you have money to burn, then go ahead and buy today. If you don’t, then you really should wait a year or two. As a person who rented for 17 years, I know how annoying certain things can be. To get you through this period, you could always upgrade and pay a few more dollars each month and get a better place. At this point, you could consider renting a house ;)
Also speaking from experience and I’m sure most other home owners here can vouch for it, the expenses involved in owning a home are mind boggling. The tax breaks (John is correct in his assessment of the mortgage deduction) will not come close to the difference you can make in continuing to pay rent and saving the other half of the nut for yourself. When you can rent a home for half the cost of buying it, then no amount of tax deductions are going to make it a smart investment. Just be patient. Remember when BI said that the Homebuilders hit bottom last October? He was correct, for the third time. Of course he is wrong once again now.
I can’t emphasize patience enough!!!
I do have a solution for you. You can buy my house and I’ll rent. What do you say?
Re 180 Even worse – Chuck Berry played my highschool with a $5 dollar cover back in his bankrupt days.
Re 188 – If the house you are buying is for the next 20 years buy it. If you plan on staying their 5-10 years and trading up don’t. Otherwise you won’t have enough equity to trade up.
Also it depends on how much home you are buying. If someone wants a McMansion currently valued at 1.5 million losing another 20% would be $300k. If someone is buying a $300K home losing 20% would be 60K. Most people who are waiting to trade up are in their 40’s and it will be their last move. They can’t afford to take a bath this time in life with college payments coming their way in ten years. This crowd will sit in their starter till the smoke clears.
Let him buy the house. Some people like it. Kinda like buying a new SUV. The moment you hit the curb you lost 20K, but that one day wiff of new car smell is a joy!
Over the years, I have watched a number of washed up acts play bar mitzvahs and weddings. Not only is it criminal to the band, but it’s excruciatingly painful to watch them try to belt out the hora. As a matter of fact, no one dances for they are in horror of the spectacle.
#190 RIch: I will be the guy with my pant up (fortunately).
Oh Vey – At least they did not play a briss.
196 and 194 I don’t know, I think if they are still performing as musicians it’s a little better than watching the guy walk through a used car lot talking about the deals you can get on a 7 year old pick up truck (he wasn’t playing guitar in the commercials).
#190 RIch: I will be the guy with my pant up (fortunately).
Fortunate for me as well.
bank owned & forclosed homes are overrated in my opinion.
yes, sometimes you get good deals.
but, in my experience, these homes have left sitting, unkept, start to deteroiate, and if there is one forclosed there are more in the area, which drives prices way down.
SAS
From MarketWatch
Too soon to relax, Atlanta Fed’s Lockhart says
U.S. economic conditions remain ‘fragile,’ official says
It’s got to be a good sign that a senior Federal Reserve official has returned to the central bank’s old job of trying to keep people from celebrating too much about a little good news.
That’s exactly the message that Dennis Lockhart, still relatively new to the post of president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, delivered Monday.
“Although conditions have improved on some fronts, I don’t feel we can yet ‘breathe easy,’ ” Lockhart said in a speech to the Jacksonville Regional Chamber of Commerce.
OK guys My pride an joy, my 1996 Jepp Grand Cherokee, need a new raidator,and driver side door.
The hinges are broken, and since they are welded on, it will involve replacing the door. Total cost in the neighborhood of 1500 to 2000K.
The truck has 90K miles on it. The frugal side of me says pay it, because it is cheaper.
My financial side tells me once you start putting this kind of money into an old car, it is a losing proposition.
Any thoughts? The thought of looking for another car pains me.
Hoboken gtg
Although I live here for the moment, wallflower that I am, I’m not certain what would be a suitable location. There are a lot of places within a block or two of the Path station. Most cater to Stevens students (so expect loud drunken millennials).
One thing I noticed at the last gtg was that the bar was loud enough that hearing conversation was not always easy. The place we went to at gtg1 was much better.
“1996 Jepp Grand Cherokee”
Its a Cherokee. If it was a CJ, thats a different story. but for a Cherokee?
I’d imagine you can get hell of a good deals of Jeeps today, rather than start funnelig money back into that Cherokee.
but, thats just me.
SAS
what is gtg?
SAS
Do we scrap Hoboken for another Gold Coast location?
Any ideas?
re 203
Why do you need a driver’s side door? Just have it welded shut. Radiators aren’t really needed either. Just turn up the heat to high and drive slow with the windows open. This does work better in winter, I admit. It will look fine sitting in the front yard on blocks in the summer.
Re scrap
I’m hoping that one of our more gregarious members has a positive suggestion. There are a lot of places here I’ve never been.
3B: I agree sort of with SAS.
Frugal or not, why invest so much cash into a vehicle that gets 13 miles to the gallon that nobody wants?
I have a 97 GC with the 4.0 V6. It only has 70K. I drive it on the highway one day per week. It’s a heavy vehicle and you really cannot do much to get better gas mileage. Best thing is to change driving habits.
The good junkyards all have a locate computer system, find one with the software and find a used door same color as your car. A lot of junkyards for a few extra bucks will install. Go to directly to a car raidtors rebuild place and have them re-do the core. Save even more yank your own raidtor bring it in and have them do the rebuild. This is second grade level mechanics.
lurker here…
#203 I had a ’90 Cherokee. 1.5 – 2K!?!? Hit a junk yard – it’s a Jeep.
#210 I rarely drive the car. However, my son does,and he needs it for work (whil he is home in the summer) I just purchased a new Highlander last year for my wife, that she uses for work.
Plus there are time I use my old truck to go to NYC to visit family, and meet up with friends. Unfortunaltey we do need 2 cars. even though we do not need them all the time.
1500 – 2k sounds steep for that kind of repair. You can probably do the radiator replacement yourself, and I’m not sure how much labor is involved with the door repair. I would shop around.
If in fact it is that expensive, I’m not sure I would get the repairs done. You can pick up similar models for as much or little more dough:
http://newjersey.craigslist.org/car/699385242.html
http://newjersey.craigslist.org/car/691379488.html
http://newjersey.craigslist.org/car/682764501.html
http://newjersey.craigslist.org/car/668075944.html
http://newjersey.craigslist.org/car/656531210.html
#211 John: Found a door in Montauk (After looking all over on the internet), $325 for the door, plus $50 bucks to deliver it.
Then it has to be installed the door hinges are welded on, so it is a fairly labor intensive job. So I figure all total for the door about $700, plus $700 for the radiator(quote from my mechanic).
So I am looking at closer to $1500.
Can anyone dig up a MLS on this if there ever was one for a Comp Killer. I know it’s Hudson county so it is tough to get numbers. Here is a Hoboken Victorian/Brick House sold for less than 1/2 price.
http://tax1.co.monmouth.nj.us/cgi-bin/m4.cgi?&district=0905&block=206&lot=9&qual=
3b
My prior comment is under moderation, but essentially that car is not worth much more than those repair prices. If he can stomach it, I would look for a wagon of some kind that fits his needs. Many wagons have just as much usable cargo space as SUV’s.
I would recommend a Subaru wagon, actually. Good in the snow, reliable, economical mpg-wise, and older ones can be found at good prices.
I would vote for Friday for the GTG, only because folks are already in transit somewhere.
That said, if in Hoboken on Sat, somewhere near a train station and without too much gunplay is fine with me.
Do we scrap Hoboken for another Gold Coast location?
I say no do to easy mass transit access and multiple drinking establishments.
Scrap Hoboken? This town is bankrupt! We need every single dollar in bar money we can get. Tell the fat @ss spendthrift know-nothing Mayor you are coming and he might come out and cut a yellow ribbon on your arrival!
I say no DUE to easy mass transit access and multiple drinking establishments.
Hoboken = Gunplay?!
204 broken,
I agree with your assessment of the grasshopper. It started out ok, but then the music got really loud and I found myself shouting to be heard.
I’m not super-familiar with any quieter bars in Hoboken, as every time I’ve been there has been with rowdy intent. I’m sure there are some bars that fit the bill however.
Go for broke and do the GTG at Bryant Park.
I wanna be comment #223.
Mr. Grim – great job. Been watching this site for a while. First site I go to each day. Love the meat; can do without the fat – chats about cars, ad hominems and other garbage…
…anyway… this was awesome on patrick.net, and caused me to post.
http://patrick.net/housing/contrib/JSurridge.pdf
I’ve been in asset backed credit derivatives, just moved out of hoboken, considered BC, and just bot a house in Mercer C. I’m on the inside.
The Green Rock in Hoboken isn’t bad for a GTG. My school’s NJ alumni crew tends to gather there once a year. It’s close to the PATH and to the main station for those of us who rely on mass transit.
Since we’ve started to look at houses it seems that we’ve been late to the party every time. Every time we look at something or submit something we’re interested in to our realtor we find out it’s either under contract or in attorney review. We’re starting to get quite frustrated. Our price range is $300,000 to $325,000 and i find quite a few 3br 2 bath properties. They seem to be going fast. We won’t settle for crap and we’re seeing A LOT of crap. Whenever we get to the good stuff it’s taken fast. I’m sure if our price range was $400+ it would be easier. Just venting…
(204 & 221),
I, being “old” figured it would be earlier in the evening before the “kids” showed up.
Wish I knew of places to recommend but it’s been to long.
#226 – Joeycasz
I realize we’re probably looking in different parts of NJ, but FWIW, our price range is in the low $400s, and it’s definitely not easy.
My point here: Things are almost always a little better if you can spend a little more money.
Hang in there. I’ve seen some $500k+ places from mid-’07 drop into (and even below) our price range recently. I’m sure you’ll see the same thing happen to your price range over time.
Also, side note: There are recently a bu++lode of $499k places in the towns I’m looking at in BC – there can’t be that many people looking to buy at that particular price point.
My theory (laywoman’s, natch) is that these will have to fall in price to accommodate demand. I think if you/we wait a year or so (or longer if you can manage it), you’ll be much happier with what you get for your dough.
Green rock is bad for congregating. Never understood the allure. Good wide open Irish bar one block up across from the PNC bank. Much more room and a good joint.
skep (181)-
If you’re 720+ FICO with a DP, you’re fine. You can even go stated with certain lenders. Expect all lenders to look for those reserves (3 months’ worth not unusual) these days. They aren’t going to let you borrow if they get the feeling you’re stretching into a price range you really can’t afford.
217 nom deplume
“somewhere … without too much gunplay is fine with me.”
You are no fun at all.
Friday GTG provides more Mass Transit options to anyone on the Montclair-Boonton line.
We have no weekend train service, but will try and find a way to make it on Saturday. Since Stu will not be able to drink as much, if he has to drive, it should more than defray the cost of parking.
Louise and Jerry’s might fit the Hoboken GTG bill. A bit of a schlep from the Path, but it has less of the Stevens crowd and the music isn’t usually too loud. I think it’s 7th and Washington. It’s the kind of place that John would like and the drinks used to be pretty cheap. Haven’t been there in about 4 years but it never changes.
#228
Thanks movinB. I’m mainly looking in Union County and prices have dropped here but not enough for me. I hate to do it but i may just start looking in the $350-360 range and lowball as i’ve seen TONS of houses in this range come into our price range quite a bit. The house we missed was listed for $380,000 and was dropped to $339,000. Why the hell not.
224 Inside
“Love the meat; can do without the fat – chats about cars, ad hominems and other garbage…”
Although a confessed contributor to the fat, I’d say I agree, except for the fact that IMO the fat helps create the community feel that keeps the blog alive and humming, and therefore guarantees the continued delivey of the meat.
I’d love to provide more meat myself, but the restaurant I work for would fire me.
In any event, what with you and Stu (?) having both posted the patrick.net piece, I’ve now printed it for more leisurely perusal if I get home tonight.
That dip$h!t is winning!
Vote for Grim!
http://www.fhamortgagecenter.com/contest/leaderboard.php
Is this the ‘Irish’ bar? Black Bear
blackbearbar com. A comment on Hoboken connected site says it has a cover.
The comments on a certain Hoboken connected site certainly do make Louise and Jerry’s seem plausible.
NJGator,
Why not hop the train from the Clifton Station? It’s not far from Monty at all, has plenty of free parking, and heads straight into ‘Boken.
#234 Joeycasz –
Yes, go for the lowballs and keep us posted on your progress…
If you throw out a few lowballs, it’s at least sending the message that someone is willing to take their house off the seller’s hands, just not at peak prices.
Even in the situation you cite (offering $325 for a $350 list), that’s at least 90% of asking… not even putting you in a lowballer position. So definitely go for it.
GL to you!
If the gtg is that Sat. I won’t be able to make it. :(
But check this link for other ideas. I thought Miles Square would be ok but their site is down.
http://www.hoboken-bar.net/bars/all.html
re Blog Contest
Rules? This is Jersey, we don’t need no stinkin’ rules.
Is it possible to do something like this for NNJ?
http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/06/minneapolis-price-distribution-of.html
Joeycasz Says:
June 2nd, 2008 at 5:20 pm
I’m sure if our price range was $400+ it would be easier. Just venting…
Joey Don’t sweat it. Our price range is above the $400 level and at times we feel the same way you do. The real problem is that the stinkin’ goods are over-price! We can’t forget that or let it get the better of us.
Also as pointed out by Grim and others is the fact that the listings that remain over 30-60 days are stale for a reason (hint: asking too much for the value added!)
I really believe we will find something and am glad you/we are not settling. The more I think of it, this really is like finding a life partner and all we notice are the lonely, needy options on the market. But that one gem for you is out there…/cheese off
that’s overpriced
Grim,
Congratulations! But then again, I’m not surprised that you won. Your site is the most comprehensive New Jersey real estate site I’ve found.
What makes it so interesting is that it covers economic, political and social issues. The links, graphs and charts you provide saves me a lot of time of searching the internet. Lavoro meraviglioso!
Thanks afe. I don’t need much but when i see a house listed for $350,000 that is basically a shoebox i get mad, real mad. We’re not buying just anything, we can rent until we have to.
# 198 “John Says:
June 2nd, 2008 at 3:58 pm
Oh Vey – At least they did not play a briss.”
John,
I see no problem with a used-to-be-famous band playing a briss. As long as they dont play for tips.
#224
that powerpoint is a great summary of most of the housing bubble arguments to date. it’s nice to see them all lined up like that.
one thing that has confused me for the longest time is how this whole collapse wasn’t completely obvious to more people. I know there was a certain percentage of people who were making a ton of money off it and were thus incentivized not to see it, but how did virtually everyone else miss it (or even deny it when presented with the same facts as in that powerpoint)?
I sort of think one of the biggest contributors is that most people have no idea how much money their friends and neighbors make. Money is like the number 1 taboo subject among adult acquaintances. So people guess about how well others are doing based on the stuff they have. Most people strive to present the outward appearance of making more than they really do, and the collective impression is that as a whole, people are better off than they really are.
Perhaps the Brass Rail for the gtg?
http://www.thebrassrailnj.com/
What? Were they supposed to have a “supervised illegal drinking party?”
Unlike many of us (100 years ago) who would get together with a bunch of kids and drive to a sand pit someplace and drink half the night and then 1/2 of the 1/2 in the bag people would drive home, 1/2 in each lane.”
WEST DOVER, VT. — Police in two states will be trying to sort out the details of a raid of a large weekend party at three rental homes in West Dover, Vt. which resulted in 62 teenagers from Randolph being charged with underage possession of malt beverages.
Dover, Vt., Police Chief Robert Edwards said Sunday his department acted on a tip from Randolph police that more than 110 Randolph high school students were having an unsupervised drinking party at three homes at 303 Route 100 in West Dover, Vt..
After obtaining a search warrant, Edwards said, his officers and those from for three surrounding towns, Vermont State Police and Windham County sheriffs officers raided the party and detained the teens.
The oldest person detained was 19, he said. The drinking age in Vermont, as it is in New Jersey, is 21.
“This was a recipe for disaster,” Edwards said. “There was no adult supervision.”
He described the event as a post-prom party. Randolph High School’s prom was Thursday. Edwards said teens told him that they planned to return to New Jersey on Monday after a weekend in Vermont.
[snip]
I’m almost jealous. Weekend in Vermont.
Any reader looking around and wondering where their 18-year-old is?
#226 joey: Patience.
Oh those crazy kids!
Speaking of over-priced goods: anyone try to price a hybrid suv lately? The dealer hubby talked to this weekend stated that lately they have been selling at 2k over MSRP and oh, we only have one in stock ( I think he was enquiring about a ford escape)….Then magically, a phone call today, we now have 2 in stock, wanna come look? The hub told him to take a walk.
238 Doyle – That’s probably what we’ll wind up doing, but nothing beats the convenience of walking home only 1 block from the choo choo.
#13 “pimp my condo/hump my home” Thank you very much, patient. I just blew my after dinner coffee all over my laptop. STILL laughing!!
FYI
Just got an email that HSBC is raising its online savings account APR to 3.5, up from 3.05.
FWIW
3b –
Re: Car
i wouldn’t put any money into it. i was just in the same situation – my volvo started to need too many repairs – so i bit the bullet and bought another car. i have no emotional attachment to cars, so i didn’t care about getting rid of the old one, i just didn’t want to spend the $$ – but, i was getting tired of being nervous about driving long distances, and the next repair bill. (i also only have one car)
you could put $1500 into it, and then discover in a few months it needs another $2000 – after a while, it’s like you’re rebuilding a car. also, you mentioned your son drives it – you may want something a little more reliable – for safety reasons –
I think people are scared to jump into real estate. There are a lot of indications that the market can still go lower. While there are some good deals compared to a year ago, people are worried. They don’t want to get in the same situation that these people getting foreclosed on now are.
I’ve been keeping my eye on local foreclosures and put up a site based on some stuff I wrote to help me stay informed.
Someone I spoke to told me that at the beginning of one of the auctions, the representative from the bank stood up and said they were going to counter any bid until they reach market value. That was a while ago and I wonder if any one would still say the same.
The sad thing is that some people seem to have been doing fine but for one reason or another refinanced to cash out equity at the height of the bubble and what they currently owe on their homes is above what current market value is. I know there was also some shady loan practices in the area but I’m not sure to what extent that might have contributed. Anyone remember the father/son team that managed to get 3-4 mortgages per property without the other banks knowing? The guy skipped town and the feds haven’t posted anything about finding him.
If anyone is interested, the site is still a work in progress but you can find it here:
http://www.bergenjerseyforeclosures.com/
afe:
if you haven’t seen this, this has some pretty good results on hybrid suv’s http://www.fueleconomy.gov/Feg/hybrid_sbs_SUVs.shtml
I was surprised to see that some of the hybrid suv’s have mileage that was similar to conventional sedans.
http://images.businessweek.com/ss/08/02/0228_expensive_suburbs/index_01.htm?chan=rss_topSlideShows_ssi_5
Anyone on the list?
3b…
We typically advise against repairing an older vehicle. The CPM (cost-per-mile) is higher on older vehicles (THIS HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH GAS PRICES, PEOPLE) and therefore, you’re going to lose, BUT…
you mentioned a few things that MAY change the decision to “fix it”…
1. You have a history of the vehicle, you can safely decide if the rest of the vehicle is OK.
2. It’s a second vehicle….you can fix nothing but the necessaries and not be screwed if something else breaks.
3. You have time. (you won’t believe how many people don’t think of an escape plan BEFORE their car schitts the bed.)
4. Know that all vehicles become obsolete parts-wise. Plan for this. Adopt a budget and stick to it for future repairs. BUT…
5. KNOW that all vehicles, NEW OR OLD, NEVER EVER EVER have a “zero” cost per mile. Thinking you can skate without any expenditures on a “paid off” vehicle is denial. What you trade off on new car payments for an older car you make up for in repairs and accelerated maintenance.
6. KNOW THAT YOU can tip over too far and spend more CPM on an old vehicle that you would for a new/late model vehicle.
I can show you a sample formula on how to determine your CPM, but suffice it to say that’s how you determine to nix it or fix it.
3.
The Dubliner is the Irish bar he’s talking about
Ooops. I left a hanging “3”.
Sorta like a chad, except not. :)
#252 “Pat Says:
June 2nd, 2008 at 7:15 pm
I’m almost jealous. Weekend in Vermont.”
When we were young and drinking illegally, we were lucky to have money or beer let alone a hotel.
Good house for parties:
http://images.businessweek.com/ss/08/02/0228_expensive_suburbs/index_01.htm?chan=rss_topSlideShows_ssi_5
Five Things You Need to Know About the U.S. Dollar
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/YUM-dollar-ba-KO-Fed-UDN/index/a/17393
264 shore
I think Millburn is on that list solely because of the cost of clothing in Gito.
Wonder how soon that place will close….
“grim Says:
June 2nd, 2008 at 4:17 pm
Do we scrap Hoboken for another Gold Coast location?
Any ideas?”
How about Light Horse Tavern in Jersey City?
Grim #145
Can not compute ?
How bout seperate water fountains, Whites only? Now that’s hard to compute.
KL
Pension Crisis
http://money.cnn.com/2008/06/02/pf/retirement/vallejo.moneymag/index.htm?postversion=2008060305
SG (77):
Funny that article mentions Rancho Santa Margarita. I first went there to visit a friend in 2000, gorgeous place out in Orange County. It takes 25 min to get to any corporate office from there, and on my last trip there were ‘beware of mountain lion’ signs. There’s been a lot of new development out that way in the mountains.. but I could never understand why a home would be worth so much.