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Several friends and co-workers taking the plunge. I am concerned but I am being “Hey that’s great man” Do many of you have to do this as well?
“But mom, all my friends were doing it.”
From Bloomberg:
London Luxury-Home Prices Post First Drop Since 2003
Luxury-home prices in central London, the world’s most expensive location for prime real estate, had their first annual decline in five years as buyers were deterred by the prospect of a recession.
The average price of houses and apartments in London’s nine most expensive neighborhoods fell 1.6 percent in August from a year earlier, according to an index compiled by Knight Frank LLP. Property values declined 1.3 percent from July, the fourth straight drop, the property broker said. The index includes homes valued at about 1 million pounds ($2 million) or more.
Homebuyers were affected by “pessimism in the financial- services sector, particularly relating to the size of this year’s bonuses,” Liam Bailey, Knight Frank’s head of residential research, said in a statement.
From USA Today:
Real estate info flows freely on the Web
Not so long ago, real estate websites offered little more than a thumbnail photo of a house and puffy prose about stainless-steel appliances. But with the housing slump making home buying a more considered investment — flippers and investors have all but faded from view — consumers crave more impartial information before they buy. And real estate sites are tumbling over themselves to provide the freshest, clearest data available.
The result is that buyers are empowered with more data about properties and neighborhoods than ever before. The bad news? You can lose days wading through it all.
You can lose days wading through it all.
They’ve obviously never been here, our readers lose YEARS wading through this cra…
From the Hartford Courant:
Home Sales Tumble 24%
The median price for a single-family house in Connecticut fell in June by double digits for the second straight month, completing a grim picture of the market for the first six months of the year, but one not nearly as dire as in other regions of the country.
Single-family house sales for the first six months of 2008 are at historic lows and have fallen by more than 20 percent for eight months in a row.
…
In June, single-family house sales in Connecticut fell by 24 percent, to 2,753, from 3,608 for the same month a year earlier, according to a report Thursday from The Warren Group, which tracks housing trends in New England.
The state’s median sale price in June dropped by 11 percent, to $288,500, from $325,000 a year earlier, The Warren Group said.
…
Five counties — Fairfield, Litchfield, Middlesex, New London and Windham — saw median sale price declines that topped 10 percent. Hartford County fared better, falling 3 percent in June, to $248,000, from $257,000 a year earlier.
From the WSJ:
Georgia Bank Bet Big on One Horse
Now, Regulators Want to Know Why; The Capital Drain
By LINGLING WEI
August 29, 2008; Page C3
State and federal regulators are asking why Integrity Bancshares Inc., a Georgia community bank, lent almost all of its available capital to one real-estate developer.
Integrity is one of dozens of small banks throughout the country struggling with rising defaults resulting from their unbridled lending during the heyday of the real-estate frenzy. As of the end of the second quarter, nearly 50% of Integrity’s $668.4 million in construction loans was nonperforming, according to research firm Foresight Analytics LLC, up from only 7% in the year-earlier period.
…
Integrity, which is based in Alpharetta, Ga., and has five branches, is an extreme example of a community bank that got caught up in the real-estate boom.
These small state-chartered banks are supposed to focus on serving local communities. But during the housing boom, many of them were muscled out of the business of lending to home buyers by large banks. Many turned to making loans — ranging from $1 million to $10 million — to finance office buildings, hotels, housing projects and other commercial real estate.
Integrity has acknowledged that it made 14 loans for a total of $83 million to entities owned by the same guarantor; that amount represented almost all of the bank’s available capital early last year. While Integrity didn’t disclose the identity of this borrower, people familiar with the matter say it was Guy Mitchell, a Coral Gables, Fla.-based property investor. The money went to five shopping centers, a primary residence for Mr. Mitchell, and a condominium-conversion project.
(continued)
All of those loans are now in default. Mr. Frawley said the bank has been “trying diligently to collect as much as possible,” but he declined to identify the borrower or discuss other specific customers.
More proof that all real estate is local.
“Mortgage lender Bradford & Bingley uveils pre-tax losses of £26.7m in the first half of 2008.”
http://news.sky.com/skynews/
grim,
Can you give me status on MLS 2506909 and MLS 2813459.. Has either of them closed yet? If so.. Can I get the closing info please?
thanks
HP
Planning to buy in NJ next year, late 2009. Wrestling with the idea of either returning for one month (Oct), hope we get lucky, and close on a house so we can move our stuff from overseas directly into our permanent home. Other option is to return and rent so we’re not rushed and just deal with moving twice. Third option, do both. Was curious if a 30 day window is a reasonable period of time to find and close on a house or should we save ourselves the trouble and rent from the start.
U.S. banks’ borrowing from Fed increases.
“A Fed report released Thursday said commercial banks averaged $18.47 billion in daily borrowing over the past week. That compared with a daily average of $17.51 billion in the previous week. For the week ending Aug. 27, Wall Street firms didn’t take out any loans, the fourth straight period of no action. Their borrowing, however, averaged as high as $38.1 billion a day over the course of a week in early April.”
http://www.courierpostonline.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080829/BUSINESS/808290363/-1/newsfront2
10. HP
MLS#: 2506909
23 CREFELD CT
OLP: $414,900
LP: $404,900
DOM: 82
UCD: 07/01/2008
ANT CD: 08/29/2008
The other one didn’t come up
Grim – #13 is in moderation
#11 DL,
Rent from the start, you will not find a place and close in 30 days unless the place is empty and you are paying 100% cash.
#7,
that couldn’t be our Mitchell? could it?
#11 DL,
Rent from the start unless you absolutely have the town you want picked out. You might discover where you are living is not that convenient for you. Moving truck is much cheaper than selling and buying 2 houses.
PGC – Thanks. As you can tell from the question, we’re first time home buyers so I’m probably confusing the issue by using the wrong terminology. From all the stories we hear about offers and counter offers, problems uncovered by inspections, sellers changing their minds, and the fact that we’re looking at a precise development, my instinct was that it may be awhile before we find something we like at a price we like. My wife fells the same way and since she owns 51 percent of the voting stock…
DL, just go to a Bank REO site pick an empty house and move in, it will be years before they sell it anyhow, actually years before a buyer even shows up to look. NJ will soon be like the Bronx in the early 70’s lots of empty buildings with no owners. In fact Corzine has a bill to change the state name from New Jersey to New Bronx.
grim (7)-
People would be amazed at how many state-chartered community banks do this.
Please let a big bank fail…..please let a big bank fail……
DL (11)-
You can pull that off…IF you have a legit, responsible lender who does a lot of the financing legwork up front. You will need to do more than just obtain the usual pre-approval letter; in fact, you should start the formal application process on day 1 of your home search. Once you have the house you want under contract, the lender can immediately get cracking on ordering the appraisal and getting you a commitment in plenty of time for a 30-day (or less) close.
Failure Friday!
Clot: A few more details. We have no debt, plan to put down at least 50% of purchase price, and can be flexible on when we move from here to NJ. So if the seller needs to find a suitable place before vacating, etc, it will not be a problem.
NJGator and Stu…
You’d think I’d be of some help regarding your trip but you need to rely on the opinions of those here who have actually traveled in the Napa area. I never go anywhere. I am just a taster at parties and rarely pay attention to what I am sipping.
I think the Cakebread is nice for a white – La Crema is reasonable. Paraduxx, Shafer, and Goldeneye I can remember for reds.
My friends have been traveling to the Pinot World Festival on the Central Coast for the last several years. I see I have a Donum
Carneros 2005 estate grown pinot noir from their last trip. Sorry I’m not much help.
I hope you are enjoying the warm weather. We are slated to break a late- August record here today – 105. I am totally into the school year and can barely scrape up the time to read the posts each day.
Enjoy…
Oh yeah..I did have an excellent salmon burger at a corner restaurant in Healdburg about a year ago. It had a bar and an outdoor seating area. No, I can’t remember the name of the place! Oh, I’m worthless…
So if someone like Wachovia fails because they owe too many people more money than they can pay and I owe wachovia money… what happens?
#19 John” As a former Bronx boy, I insist you stop knocking the Bronx. There are more than enough krap holes in NJ without always knocking the Bronx.
One thought came to me after reading the lead article yesterday posted by Grim. “You can only get a job if you are highly educated and even they are having trouble.”
No one here is retiring. I wonder how this is going to impact the job market moving forward. Since wages have not increased and equity in homes is down the tubes, many “senior” employees are holding onto their jobs…they can’t afford to retire.
It reminds me of the home situation. No one buys at the bottom so others can move up. With jobs, no one retires at the top so others can move up. It just seems like there will be consequences with unemployment figures going forward.
DL,
Do yourself a favor and take your time! Rent a place and then just sit back and watch it all unfold with no pressure. If you try to fit it all in 30 days you will end up making compromises. In this market there is no need for you guys to do this. You are in the driver’s seat so find a nice month to month rental in an area that looks good and then start looking. Within a month your town selection will pare down to a small list and then it is a matter of finding the right house for the right price in the town that you love the most. Pressure is your enemy! We successfully sniped from our NYC locale for a year or so and then pounced when we found the right house for the right price in late ’06. We had a large DP and nothing to sell as well as being in a month to month situation. The lack of pressure allows you to make rational choices that can’t be made when you are on a time line. Good luck.
Stu – If you like merlot – and are going to be in Healdburg today – check out Twomey.
Mike in NJ: Month-to month rental. That’s the key. We have a friend who owns a couple of properties in NJ and he’s offered to let us rent one while we look. (Hey, wait a minute…I thought he was a friend.) Anyway, that’s what we’ll do and use the month I was planning on returning to NJ to have one last European road trip before coming home.
Hey I love the Bronx, I like to shout out to 196th and Morris Avenue my old stomping ground. But I tell you in the early 70s to mid 70’s that place melted down, empty buildings, bring the crack heads and gangs in no times. Newark and those places looking for a come back will soon have boarded up houses all over, will someone pass the marshmellows cause the landlords are going to be burning those suckers in 2009.
3b Says:
August 29th, 2008 at 8:58 am
#19 John” As a former Bronx boy, I insist you stop knocking the Bronx. There are more than enough krap holes in NJ without always knocking the Bronx.
There goes the decoupling theory.
Thailand: Inflation Contagion Ravaging Asia’s Economies
GENERAL MTRS ACCEP CORP 6.50000% 12/15/2018 Price (Ask) 39.667
Yield to Worst (Ask) 21.051%
I almost want to roll the dice.
Third option, do both. Was curious if a 30 day window is a reasonable period of time to find and close on a house or should we save ourselves the trouble and rent from the start.
Unless you will be making full price offer, and not ask for any credit at closing/after inspection 30 days is not enough.
It took our agent 2 weeks to get reply on my last offer. After that I decided to rent for one more year – tired of mind-games realtors and sellers play.
DL (24)-
Sounds do-able to me. Funny…I’m starting to see more and more buyers with big DPs saved up.
The buzzard banquet is about to start.
I thought these guys don’t use the M (mortgage) word and will not be effected from something slimy called subprime which is contained and will affect the poor people in the bad areas.
I mean what’s Hamptons got to do with Subprime? (sarcarsm off)
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=ajZHo17prlEQ&refer=home
SG (33)-
Decoupling? Inflation? Inflation is the US’ #1 export.
GENERAL MTRS ACCEP CORP 6.50000% 12/15/2018 Price (Ask) 39.667
Yield to Worst (Ask) 21.051%
I almost want to roll the dice.
Roll them. Almost doesn’t count.
John (34)-
That bond is the very definition of rolling the dice.
3b – I am a Bronx boy too but John don’t you really mean the South Bronx?
Everything south of Fordam Rd in the 1970s of down to the river lost nearly half of its population. Half of the South Bronx! Buildings became abandoned and were torched, it got so bad that in 1977 during during Game 2 of the 1977 World Series a blazing fire broke out in an abandoned building behind Yankee Stadium right on TV the day after Jimmy Carter visited that very street.
My Dad worked Con Ed emergency services back in those days and although I was young, I can remember him coming home and telling stories about all of the fires, first time I heard the phrase Jewish lighting.
We were pretty safe living on Gun Hill Road by the Mosoulu Golf Course back in those days but we were not allowed to take the train too far south.
Forbes article,
Three Things Candidates Won’t Tell You
Al (35)-
“After that I decided to rent for one more year – tired of mind-games realtors and sellers play.”
Al, do you really think sellers are just going to roll over and play dead?
I would bet you $1,000 you aren’t going to buy a house…ever. Why do I think this? Because- like many of the ultra-analytical, four-walls-and-a-roof contingent here- you are ruthlessly clinical in the preliminaries, yet you walked on a potential deal for what can only be termed a purely emotional reason.
Seller’s agent didn’t get back to you, and it took two weeks for your agent to dig out a response? How low was your offer?
Al (35)-
Wouldn’t you categorize an ultra-lowball offer as a kind of mind game?
Sheez. I think every single deal I’ve ever done is a mind game.
Readers slam door on affordable housing plans
EDITOR’S NOTE: A report citing the fact that New Jersey’s wealthiest and least diverse municipalities are the ones most resisting state rules requiring towns to build more affordable housing is causing contention on both sides of the issue: Advocates of Council on Affordable Housing (COAH) rules say the cream-of-the-crop towns simply don’t want people who look different and have less to spend in their midst, while officials from the protesting communities believe the report distorts data and add that creating higher-density housing would threaten existing open spaces and raise already high taxes.
Cindy – Stu is indeed a fan of Merlot. We will defintely check Twomey out. Thanks!
Do you happen to know of the good breakfast place on the square in town. A family friend back home says we should go there, but he couldn’t remember the name.
We were also told to check oout Arista, Rochioli and Ferrari-Carano in the area as well.
We’re going to head straight down to SF later in the day.
Now if only I could figure out my future career path, maybe I could get a little more sleep before starting our day! Stu is patiently snoring away. I am jealous!
My favorite things to hear come out of a client’s mouth:
-“mind game”
-“head case” (often used in conj. with “mind game”)
-“I won’t give it away”
-“What will the seller accept” (dunno; let me check the price tag)
-“But we have granite”
-“I need $_____ to move” (I need a colonoscopy, but I’m putting off getting one.)
-“Make this happen” (Oh, ok…just let me go out to my car and grab some pixie dust.)
-“What are YOU kicking into this deal” (Dunno. Your head?)
Gator (45)-
Rochioli, yes. Ferrari-Carano, no. Check out Dehlinger & see if they are open. Super good Pinot.
Gator – Heading off to work – do whatever Clot says. I have no memory (but do remember that great merlot – Twomey – I know nothing of the winery itself.) Alas, I am a jughead….I’m not buying the wine – just a lucky recipient if sips here and there – so what do I know.
CIndy 28
# Cindy Says:
August 29th, 2008 at 9:08 am
One thought came to me after reading the lead article yesterday posted by Grim. “You can only get a job if you are highly educated and even they are having trouble.”
No one here is retiring. I wonder how this is going to impact the job market moving forward. Since wages have not increased and equity in homes is down the tubes, many “senior” employees are holding onto their jobs…they can’t afford to retire.
It reminds me of the home situation. No one buys at the bottom so others can move up. With jobs, no one retires at the top so others can move up. It just seems like there will be consequences with unemployment figures going forward.
This question was asked at the forum with warren buffet and frineds at the IOUSA premier. Most of the people on the panel blew the question off and said dont worry there will be plenty of jobs. It was dodged just like the question of what happens to the economy if everyone stopped spending and started saving like they were promoting.
#32 John: Back in the day, we used to hit all the bars in the west Bronx, much better selection than the east Bronx where I grew up.
I love the Bronx too, when we moved to NJ 20 years ago, we did leave because it appeared every area in the Bronx was destined to decline.
#46 clotpoll
Don’t forget
“We raised our family here”
Like I should pay a premium because you lived in this dump while your f$ck trophies grew up?
from the National Hurricane Center:
“HOWEVER…IT WOULD BE NO SURPRISE IF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION OCCURRED AND GUSTAV BECAME A CATEGORY 4 OR 5
HURRICANE BY 72 HR.”
Gustav Still centered on NO. This could ruin the press coverage for the Grand Old Party. And it could make Katrina look like warm up if the worst case scenario plays out, a direct Landfall on Louisiana at Cat 4/5. This storm could still veer of to texas though.
bairen (52)-
Amazingly, I don’t hear that one so often. Thank God.
My response would likely be as impolitic as yours. :)
#54 Clot,
maybe that will change as people who bought in 1999 and tapped the heloc in 01 go underwater.
Barien I always preferred crotch fruit myself
Does anyone have information on MLS# 2565258. I want to know if it is in the flood zone in pompton lakes since that info has been removed fromt he public listings.
Clot – where is Dehlinger?
painhrtz,
You can check here
http://www.floodsmart.gov/floodsmart/pages/landing_pages/landing0000_1.jsp?WT.mc_id=FEMA_Google1&WT.srch=1
to see what flood risk you home has.
#58 painhrtz,
that’s a new one for me.
Pain,
FEMA Flood Maps
http://tinyurl.com/5ccr2k
Can someone post the NJMLS Bergen County month by month average/mean price listing?
Does anyone know what’s going on with the house on 219 Beverly Hill Rd in Clifton? The house was to be sold immediately and it has been under contract for more than 3 months!! Any info please let me know! This house was price right, $309K for a 2 bedroom 2 bath and huge backyard!
Did my post get deleted?
Terminal Bar and the Archway were my two favorite afterhour bars. Plus the ones around Fordham were good. I recall a few times when the bars closed on Bell Blvd in Queens at 4am and we were polluted beyond belief crossing the throgs neck to go drinking at 4:30am in the bronx. Funniest thing was half way across Throggs neck once buddy in his Chevy Citation realizes he has to pay the toll guy and is worried about DWI so the nut tries to do a three point turn and head back, much screaming we get him to go forward and fake it. Loved the night I triple parked under the elevator train and the in the middle of the Buffolo song at 5:30 am on a Sunday the band had to announce will the brown dart that is doubled parked in front of the double parked chevy impala please move. By the time we got out of that windowless pit the few old irish and italian ladies that remained were on their way to 7am mass giving us heathens the evil eye. The terminal bar up by manhattan college was even weired, next to a college, a police station and a hospital. At five am you had cops off the night shift still in uniform, nurses from the graveyard shift still in scrubs and college kids with long hair all knocking down buds and boilermakers looking for a lay and/or a fight.
3b Says:
August 29th, 2008 at 10:05 am
#32 John: Back in the day, we used to hit all the bars in the west Bronx, much better selection than the east Bronx where I grew up.
I love the Bronx too, when we moved to NJ 20 years ago, we did leave because it appeared every area in the Bronx was destined to decline.
Has anyone noticed there seems to be recently abandoned homes in nicer towns this summer.
I saw a few on one street in Bernardsville, and even saw one on a main road in Basking Ridge.
By abandoned I mean the lawn has not been cut in months, no lights or cars, etc.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/26451772
Jim Rogers interview this morning on CNBC Europe.
I love this guy. He’s a genious and a true American.
Fire Bernanke and hire Trichet.
Lost,
outside of any personal matters, NO is already evacuating people and actually seems to be taking this VERY seriously. The Patient family in NO should be much better off this time.
68 Kettle
I have to make some calls and check on a few people.
ready for the hurricane gas price spike?
With both crude and total oil product inventories running significantly lower than they were when either Katrina or Rita sidelined Gulf oil production, both oil and gasoline prices are more exposed to potential storm-related supply disruptions than they were three years ago. A comparable hit to production could easily send gasoline prices to new record highs, with pump prices rising to $5/gal, and send natural gas prices spiking as well.
While supply disruptions, and attendant price hikes, will be temporary, there will be lasting impacts from hurricane damage on future supply growth, as there have already been from the 2005 storm season. Protracted multi-year delays to marquee projects like BP’s Thunder Horse have meant that new production has grown at a fraction of earlier projections for the region and has lagged well behind rapid double-digit depletion rates that are characteristic of offshore fields.
what’s hilarious is that everyone on CNBC always questions the guy (Rogers) like he has no clue on economics. He’s a billionaire for a friggin reason.
where is Bi with Mickains VP Pick?
fill your tank up today as gas stations are going to pop in price tommorrow.
clot #48, What will the seller accept? My experience with agents(Listing) is they have a good idea of the clients bottom line on a property and when my buyers agent talks to the sellers agent this is often divulged. I have asked my agent what it would take to get a deal done and he gave me a number and the final agreed upon price was within 5k of that number. So don’t tell me that the agents aren’t getting together and working both sides because that is how deals are made. “Make this happen” means work with the other agent I am somewhat flexible and want the property. What are you kicking into the deal means will you give up part of your commission to get the deal done. I have seen brokers do this many times. So at least a couple of these are things they have said before that have had positive outcomes. As an agent it is your job to get the deal done and as such you should expect this stuff as it was all pretty standard pre boom time.
73#, still rumor. but if it is true, it will be big surprise.
Mc-Cain said to choose Alaska gov as running mate. By LIZ SIDOTI, Associated Press Writer
2 minutes ago
DENVER – John Mc-Cain tapped little-known Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin to be his vice presidential running mate, two senior campaign officials told The Associated Press on Friday.
Bi and Reinvestor X:
Good luck my friends…..you have a serious uphill battle.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080829/ap_on_el_pr/cvn_veepstakes
Bi and ReinvestorX:
Good luck to you bioth…..Yuo have a serious uphill battle if true….
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080829/ap_on_el_pr/cvn_veepstakes
#53 – bairen – f$ck trophies – I actually had to write that one down.
#67 make $
thanks for the link. Rogers made me laugh telling the talking heads if they think Fannie and Freddie are so great to go out and buy their stock.
McCain & The Milf
Naughty Librarians Rock!
#78 tosh,
i learned that from one of my crazy former coworkers about 10 years ago. It’s very John like. Brief, descriptive, and powerful.
McCain said to choose Alaska gov as running mate.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/cvn_mccain_veepstakes;_ylt=AvjcxMlwa8o6.xwq_DIo3YOs0NUE
Looks like he is targeting the younger generation and soccer moms with this move. Throws in a bit of counter move on Hillary comments as well.
#81 in moderation?
heh, Rogers was telling Kudlow that he was short Fannie and Freddie back in November. Kudlow responded “THEY ARE DOWN 55%!” while he told him he was nuts. Rogers told him they were going down another 55%. Kudlow responded but that’s a total of -5%? First off, with his gorilla math, it should have been negative 10%. Rogers had to teach him, that if you lose 55% and another 55% after that, you lost a little over 75% from the peak. I don’t know how people can take CNBC seriously. Their only saving grace is that they occasionally have smart people on their network to ridicule.
Bi – Palin is old news and ABC reported hours ago that she is still in Alaska and planning on attending the Alaska State Fair today.
#81 mitchell
Hope you realize i was just kidding on #17.
it is official:
Sen. John McCane has picked Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate, a senior McCane campaign official told CNN on Friday.
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/08/29/palin.republican.vp.candidate/index.html
Republicans to Dems.
I will see your one white guy pretending to be black and raise you one woman pretending to be an Eskimo.
Palin is awesome, nice job by Mc, I didn’t know he had it in him. A true conservative that is reforming her own party. A potential game changer, should be fun to watch.
Here’s Rogers on Kudlow back in November. Everything he said was spot on.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qA0XLbugPng
Wow Bi was right. I should have reviewed the internets again before posting.
Kinda interesting pick on the experience front. Prior to her 2 years as Gov, she was mayor of the mega-city Wasila.
Also the entire R party in Alaska is pretty much under indictment or serious investigation these days. There was even a recent controversy with her trying to get her brother in law fired from his job as a police officer while he was involved in a nasty divorce fight with her sister.
But I guess she will effectively make the drill here drill everywhere drill now argument.
Actually the McCain choice is pretty good from a purely political perspective. He’s throwing a bone to the white women who are mad Hillary didn’t get the nomination. I know several who said they’d vote for Hillary and not Obama. Plus Biden will likely have to put the gloves back on in the Veep debate as he won’t want to look like he’s “beating up on a woman”.
I am not sure if Palin is up to the public scrutiny or the quality of her public speaking skills but from a headline perspective it’s not a bad choice.
This links for you BI!!!
http://tinyurl.com/558nzj (VPILF)
Merrill losses wipe away longtime profits
By Francesco Guerrera in New York
Published: August 28 2008 23:32 | Last updated: August 28 2008 23:32
Merrill Lynch’s losses in the past 18 months amount to about a quarter of the profits it has made in its 36 years as a listed company, according to Financial Times research that highlights the extent of the global banking crisis.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/10aa56f4-7532-11dd-ab30-0000779fd18c.html?nclick_check=1
Gator
You are close to the DNC talking points. However, she is actually reforming the Alaska government, we could use someone like her here in NJ, someone willing to take on the miscreants in their own party. She has more executive experience than JB and BO combined.
I don’t think the experience card is going to play, she is not at the top of the ticket. We’ll see. Certainly makes the race a little more interesting. She likes to fish, plays hockey and basketball, actually understands the energy business. She seems to b a true conservationist, not some phony hollywood/NYC enviro nitwit.
Grim unmod 90 please
#85 about #17 LOL – NP bairen I would have made a similar joke.
JB – she’s also a creationist, but at least she’s not Joe Lieberman. Gotta give JM props for that.
“JB – she’s also a creationist” link?
I just learned she has a son in the military, passed a landmark ethics reform bill, has actually used her veto and cut budgetary spending, put a stop to the “bridge to nowhere” that would have cost taxpayers $400 million dollars.
Jeebus, a woman after my own heart. That alone is more experience than O, who as you you came form the Chicago political machine and wants to bring it to DC. I think Mc is going to work the reformer, and energy angle, which is smart. I don’ think she will actually get many Hillary hold outs, she is firmly pro-life.
#65 John: SPent many weekends in the Archway, Bunratty Pub, Durty Nelly’s, The Terminal, The Pine, and the the North Avenue bars in New Rochelle.
Ket,
Thanks that helps a lot.
I have been meaning to ask, did you ever go any further with that hunting discussion we had a couple of months ago. My wife is going through the DVD program right now and I have been very impressed. Much better than the kill three evenings at a sporting goods store I had to do oh so many years ago.
“she’s also a creationist”
Please tell me that is not true
Check out her web site, and this is not trick to get you to open inappropriate site at work.
http://www.vpilf.com/
Wow, I just checked on this creationist angle. The Democrat hatchet machine, and I am an Independent so don’t get all up in arms, must have had dossier’s on anybody that McCain was picking as when I searched for Palin in creationist I get 16,500 hits and all the entries are dated 8/29. We really need more than a two party system in this country.
McCain all the way for me. I like this women she has chutzpa, five kids, one a special needs one maybe on the way to Iraq and prior business experience and a blue collar husband.
The O is just a bobblehead!! Plus his wife reminds me of Osmarelda of the Apprentice and that gives me nightmares.
mccain is finished,, no shot.
this is the best we got.
very sad…
#100 – vpilf? That didn’t take long did it.
…. and behold a new pron genre is born.
jbjb
you are full of sh*t. if you think teaching about jesus in public schools will turn this country around…then she’s your woman. 2 years of experience and mayor of a town that makes teterboro look like a city. m just screwed up royally.
Stuey
Link? Again, I’m not saying your wrong, I haven’t read this yet. However, by the tone of your reaction, I can see it was fabulous choice for Mc.
Whether or not Palin is a good choice to be a heartbeat from the presidency, this was a homerun choice. McCain satisfied the conservatives and can attract Dem and Ind women. It also sucked away all of the coverage O and B might otherwise have gotten as they bus across the country. THIS is the first spark the M campaign has shown.
purely from novelty point of view, this palin pick makes odrama’s speech surrounded by 85% of 85000 idiots yesterday’s newspaper.
anybody watched his speech last night? i saw more defending, anger, blaming and whining added to his conventional rhetoric. is this the change you believe in?
Whether or not Palin is a good choice to be a heartbeat from the presidency, this was a homerun choice. M satisfied the conservatives and can attract Dem and Ind women. It also sucked away all of the coverage O and B might otherwise have gotten as they bus across the country. THIS is the first spark the M campaign has shown.
Link for her views on evolution:
http://dwb.adn.com/news/politics/elections/story/8347904p-8243554c.html
“Asked for her personal views on evolution, Palin said, “I believe we have a creator.”
All hail the semi-hot flying spaghetti monster.
she’s solid. I love the pick. NRA lifetime Member loves fishing, Hunting, 5 kids, against gays, and abortion and above all is as ethical as can be in politics.
Dril Dril Dril. Son is going to Iraq so she’s directly involved in foreign policy.
Sexy as can be.
As a mayor she lowered her pay by 40%. She lowered taxes in her little city by 60%.
The scale of the city is not important it’s her views on gov’t that I like.
Plus she’s only the VP and John has 70+ years of experience.
sucking up to the right probably just alienated a bunch of potential undecided voters. I really do think m just blew it. honestly. being a maverick can sometimes equate to making stupid decisions. we’ll see how the polls react to see if i’m right. gator just told me that 2 weeks ago on cnn, she claimed she didn’t even know what the vp did. nice choice for a guy who can’t do anything more than to claim o is too inexperienced.
Gator (58)-
West of Santa Rosa, north of Sebastopol.
thanks clot.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sarah_Palin
Her HS nickname is Sarah Baracuda.
jcer (74)-
You just described what hack agents do. Divulging a seller’s bottom line is actually illegal, unless the seller gives his agent express premission to do so. The other practices you mention- while not illegal or even unethical- are only employed by the kind of agents posters here seem to despise the most.
Is your point really that it’s ok to have a schmuck as an agent…as long as he’s YOUR schmuck, and such a wuss that he’s willing to give away his compensation just to get deals done?
BTW, if you think agents kick back commish without getting it back somewhere else- or withholding from you something you really need to know that could affect whether you decide to stay in a deal- you’re living in a dream world.
Why anyone would wish for a bank failure is beyond me.
soory in advance for the political discourse….
# make $ Says:
August 29th, 2008 at 1:03 pm
she’s solid. I love the pick. NRA lifetime Member loves fishing, Hunting, 5 kids, against gays, and abortion and above all is as ethical as can be in politics.
I’m sorry, but how is being against gays any different then being against blacks, or against whites, or against women voting. All of these are the same. They are all violation of human rights, state sanctioned bigotry based on a persons characteristics.
These individuals are different then the people who put Jim Crow laws in place.
I am against religious people (not to be confused with spiritual)and think that they are generally dumb, unimaginative, mouth breathing crowd followers. Yet if I stated this as a political figure i would be strung up in public for wanting to violates someones rights!
The core principle of the USA was/is to allow everyone to live together peacefully without being intolerant of the differences between individuals whether religious cultural or or other.
#106..I hope you don’t think that because she thinks there is God or a creator that that will be a problem in a nation where most people believe in God and go to Church?
Evolution is taught in Catholic schools.
Sean (100)-
VPILF? Everybody in my office is laughing so hard, we’re crying.
She is kinda hot…
John (113)-
Done her?
HEY, A little credit here please……..
# kettle1 Says:
August 29th, 2008 at 11:46 am
This links for you BI!!!
http://tinyurl.com/558nzj (VPILF)
118
I assume that was to me at #107. I don’t think that it will be a problem for the nation.
I also think the vast majority of the nation is pretty ignorant, but that is just based upon experience and empirical analysis, not just a belief.
Sorry, Ket. Still laughing too hard.
We should be getting the doctored photos on the internet, etc within 24 hours.
way OT,
but just came across this in a NO hurricane post.
The end result? if you are more then 15 yards from a cop when they shoot at you, they will probably miss!!!
NYPD SOP 9 – ANALYSIS OF POLICE COMBAT
Hit Potential In Gun Fights
http://www.virginiacops.org/Articles/Shooting/Combat.htm
The police officer’s potential for hitting his adversary during armed
confrontation has increased over the years and stands at slightly over 25% of
the rounds fired. An assailant’s skill was 11% in 1979.
In 1990 the overall police hit potential was 19%. Where distances could be
determined, the hit percentages at distances under 15 yards were:
Less than 3 yards ….. 38%
3 yards to 7 yards .. 11.5%
7 yards to 15 yards .. 9.4%
In 1992 the overall police hit potential was 17%. Where distances could be
determined, the hit percentages at distances under 15 yards were:
Less than 3 yards ….. 28%
3 yards to 7 yards …. 11%
7 yards to 15 yards . 4.2%
The Disconnect Between Range Marksmanship & Combat Hitsmanship
It has been assumed that if a man can hit a target at 50 yards he can
certainly do the same at three feet. That assumption is not borne out by the
reports.
An attempt was made to relate an officer’s ability to strike a target in a
combat situation to his range qualification scores. After making over 200
such comparisons, no firm conclusion was reached. To this writer’s mind,
the study result establishes that there is indeed a disconnect between the
two.
i feel dems and reps belong two different classes. in less than 10 minutes after pick became official, haters jumped out like mouses.
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/08/29/clyburn-says-palin-is-risky-could-be-a-disaster/
# Clotpoll Says:
August 29th, 2008 at 1:18 pm
She is kinda hot…
– I agree, she is Tina Fey kinda hot. Hey, the bright side is if Mc-Same does get elected, we will have a prettier Dick Cheney.
BTW, why are all the financials up today? The last i checked, everything was going down the gutter. Check this story out..
“Iraq Safer Than Ohio Banks Stung by Credit Crisis ”
The country’s $2.7 billion of 5.8 percent bonds due 2028 gained 45 percent since August 2007, according to Merrill Lynch & Co. indexes. Investors demand 4.84 percentage points more in yield to own the debt instead of Treasuries, down from 7.26 percentage points a year ago. The spread is narrower than for notes of Ohio banks National City Corp. and KeyCorp, suggesting Baghdad may be safer for bond investors than Cleveland.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a6L2Ql9bmS1s&refer=home
[color=white] Hewwo buddies
Hows it going?
Well I just thought I would introduce myself.
My name is Shannon
Im 19 years old..
My favorite food is pasta
Im a [/color] [url=http://christiandating.u.yuku.com]christian[/url][color=white] for life lol
I work at H & M
I guess thats enough of an intro lol
Nice to be here! Nice to meet you guys![/color]
VPILF, I LOL’d
So Ket the lesson to be learned in the coming revolution is to just stand off at a hundreds yards with my 7mm, slug gun and .22 and I shouldn’t even get creased. Perfect!
No but I am looking for her swimsuit picture from her beauty pagent, that will be the deciding factor. If I married my HS sweetheart and lived in ice cold Alaska which is 90% guys I would have had a lot more than five kids with her. After a cold night on a fishing boat that first thing I would do when I got home is to defrost my hotdog and watch it plump as it cooks.
Clotpoll Says:
August 29th, 2008 at 1:19 pm
John (113)-
Done her?
I love to see Cindy and Sarah vs. Michelle and Jill in MSG in a steel cage match to see who is president. All four look like baracudas, in the event of a tie we can have Hillery strap a doubledonger on and whichever team can take it wins.
That is what us real americans want to see, the boring old Big O saying thank you thank you thank you at 10:30pm at night is sooooooo boring.
http://business.theage.com.au/business/china-goes-the-big-squeeze-20080829-45q8.html
Great stuff. An example of how you want to be a creditor and not a debtor.
(129)-
Ramen all over my computer screen…
Clot, the honest truth is neither buyer nor sellers are easy to deal with, they come to the table with a lot of emotion and tend to be stubborn, most agents have one overriding goal and that is completing transactions. If a buyer and a sellers agent discuss in the course of offers being thrown around what the buyer and the seller might agree to it is not illegal or unethical it is simply smart to get the transaction done. The agents aren’t going to jump out and say offer x because it is my clients bottom line it would go more like my client is looking to present an offer is x something your client would even consider, and the answer would yes it is in the ball park, no it is way too low, or honestly I don’t know try it. At the end of the day the disliked agent is a good agent because they got the deal done. I want an agent who is honest understands what I am looking for and my position but when I find the property I want a shark, I want someone to figure out how to buy the property as low as possible. The agents everybody hates are the ones who make up phantom bidders and tell you you should offer full price, a good agent tells you to offer what you like and respect that choice but will get a good feel from the sellers agent what the bottom line is, a good agent tries to make both sides reasonable because very rarely they are, and a good agent will take a small reduction in commission to close the deal if the buyer and seller are obstinate over a few thousand dollars. I also don’t think they have some other way of recovering it but if they can make the sale they get paid and move onto the next client 2k is not worth losing the sale and having to show the client 15 more homes and make 5 more offers. i know some pretty good realtors and in the bad market they are still selling , closing deals and making money. If as an agent you can’t give me insight on the market and a feel for what the sellers position is you are useless, you are opening the door and showing me around, not really an added value. If before looking at a property you can tell me it is vacant, the seller looks over extended and is under water in their mortgage and you can glean this info from public information and conversations with other brokers that is value and that I am willing to pay for. Only a very stupid and short-sided broker would be unwilling to shave some money off the commission to get the deal done, again a done deal is money in the bank if the commission is 40k split and each broker has to give away 2k it is basically a joke 18k now or potentially nothing hmm what would I take???
Since they all play B-ball, do you think they can just play a game of half-court 2-on-2 and save the expense of an election?
The Bear has come out to play.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/08/29/cnrussia129.xml
Thought on McCains VP:
Disaster choice imo. The true maverick pick would have been Christie Todd Whitman, a pro choice fiscal conservative from the NE who is experienced.
If the goal here is to get Clinton Pumas this won’t do it. And the downs baby? Well, the stats show that 98% of women whose pregnancies test positive for downs, terminate. Now everyone is given the bloodtests and when red flags are present, docs and hospitials stress a CVS or amnio even if you have no intention of terminating because they need to know if it will be a high risk delivery (law suits and such, hospitals want to know). So, you can bet that within the 98%, there are “prolife” christian conservatives making this choice for themselves. In my experience, prolifers who are seemingly strident talk a good game until something happens within their own family, then the rationalizations start. I think a 98% termination rate proves this.
Many other reasons I find the choice disappointing but they are really hammering her prolife record so thought I would mention it.
Also, 1 in 3 american women will have an abortion by 45 and it isnt all hysterical, irresponsible teens and skanks. There are medical reasons and concerns about family size and aging
http://www.mlsli.com/unidetailsredo.CFM?MLNum=2089690&typeprop=1&start=1&rpp=10
round house?
She is kinda hot…
Concur
jcer (140)-
I will pretty much do anything for a client that is legal and ethical. However, kissing away my income is not one of them.
People ask me to do it all the time. I tell them I will…if they put my name on the deed.
Beware Realtors who will hand over their income. If they are that careless with their own money, imagine what they will do with yours.
You guys must be really desperate. When was last time you got some?
HC
grim Says:
August 29th, 2008 at 2:37 pm
She is kinda hot…
Concur
camper (147)-
Are you saying that she isn’t hot?
I know many people here will have ideological problems with her, but I think you have to admit that M’s VP pick was pretty brilliant. I was actually hoping it would be Romney, but tactically, I think this is a much better choice.
(1) It diminishes the image of the GOP as the party of old white guys and somewhat blunts the “making history” factor of O’s stardom.
(2) P is from outside of Washington and thus is more believable as a politician who “gets it,” to use O’s phrase. She has proven that she is willing to shake up a corrupt status quo, unlike O and B, who have simply talked about doing so.
(3) Just in the way HillDog benefitted from voter sympathy when she was attacked, having P on the ticket may blunt the effectiveness of Dem attacks.
(4) P has a direct blue collar connection in her oiler/fisherman husband. B’s blue collar roots are remote at this point and O has already demonstrated an inability to connect with this very large block of voters.
(5) P connects big time with the GOP base on issues like guns and abortion.
(6) At the same time, she is accessable to a wide range of non-GOP females from middle America who are working moms and maybe don’t care as much about the traditional wedge issues. Die hard feminists will find ways to hate her, but the are small in number compared to the former group.
(7) she is very credible on energy issues and can only reinforce the traction M has gained on this.
149#, skep-tic, concur 100%
Dude, she looks just like Hillary.
148 Clotpoll Says:
August 29th, 2008 at 2:48 pm
camper (147)-
Are you saying that she isn’t hot?
Ed Rollins: Palin is brilliant, but risky, VP choice
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/08/29/rollins.palin/index.html
happy (151)-
Two words:
Eye test.
Skeptic, all good points, but the list entails as to why I hate politics so much. Each point is why it makes political sense to maker her the VP (ie win the the election), but none of them are supportive of any common sense reasons (ie actually capable of being VP, the more important one in my mind).
Drokeback Camper – She’s not 25 hot, but definitely hot for 44 !!!
Clot,
What do you see ahead for the fall?
Are asking prices starting to drop more dramatically now?
She is hot, but she is borderline fertile and once her estrogen wears off us male voters will be turned off, thank god the election is less than 3 months away.
Al (35)-
“After that I decided to rent for one more year – tired of mind-games realtors and sellers play.”
Al, do you really think sellers are just going to roll over and play dead?
I would bet you $1,000 you aren’t going to buy a house…ever. Why do I think this? Because- like many of the ultra-analytical, four-walls-and-a-roof contingent here- you are ruthlessly clinical in the preliminaries, yet you walked on a potential deal for what can only be termed a purely emotional reason.
Seller’s agent didn’t get back to you, and it took two weeks for your agent to dig out a response? How low was your offer?
Sorry had to work this Friday… A lot needs to be taken care of before long weekend.
TO asnwer clot’s question: There was s standard offer form filled out with no special contingincies, offer was 250 on a 310K listed price. (comparable houses were were in 270-190K range).
In addition the house have being originally listed at 350K. It was on the market for 376 days, when we made an offer in May, 2008. (estate sale, nobody lived in it for a year)
So was my offer that low? (BTW they came back with 305K – 4K reduction???) after which I told my realtyor that they do not want to sell, and walked away from that house.
Right now it is on the market for 285K.
I am in a lease for a year – so If they are ready to compensate me for breaking a lease I will make my offer again – it might be a bit lower due to increased interest rates and price of gas – quite a bit longer commute for me..
If you need MLS I can provide it.
Skep
Not only this, but if you make an apples to apples comparison, you can make a very good argument that she has more actual EXPERIENCE than The One. I am not going to say that this will tip the election, but it might be the best (at east most interesting) political move I’ve seen in my lifetime.
Dink (154)-
We don’t run the country. Congress, the executive and the courts don’t run the country. The country is run by giant multinational companies and Wall Street. The fact that not a single person will go to jail over the ARS fraud is proof positive that we have a class of “untouchables” that control everything at the highest levels.
Politics is entertainment. And, the show just got a lot better today.
scribe (156)-
Yes. I see signs of the logjam beginning to break.
If you doubt any of the facts that this was the situation – I can send you my realtor’s email to Grim so you can ask her yourself.
I was pre-approved from Bank of America and Wells-Fargo with 10% down at a time, 30 years fixed.
Letters of pre-approval were submitted with the oofer, as well as promise to deposit 10% into the escrow account within 2 buisness days after accepting our offer. Check for 100$ escrow was also submitted with our offer.
sorry check for 1000$ escrow
Gator and Stu Live Blogging the Russian River Valley Part 1 –
Started off our day in Santa Rosa. A friend of ours recommended Hanna as a great balance between quality and price point. We noticed a marked difference btween this stuff and what we were sampling in Napa yesterday. Stu was a big fan of their 2004 Zinfandel, but couldn’t bring himself to plop down 54 bucks for it. We did purchase a bottle of their Jezebel blend and a reasonably priced Pinot Noir.
We then tried to stop off at Dehlinger. The vines looked amazing, but alas, the sign said ‘No Tasting’, so we drove on.
Took a beautiful trip up winding roads to Westside Rd in Healdsburg. First stop was Arista. We purchased a fabulous bottle of completely dry Gerwurtzraminer for $25 and a great Pinot Noir for $48. Then we took a stroll throug their lovely Japanese Garden.
Next up, just a short stop down the road was J. Rochioli. Their wines are served at White House State Dinners. We bought a great Chardnnay and Pinot Noir for $36 each . I’m writing this update while overlooking thei gorgeous grounds.
Next stop up the road is Twomey, to check out Cindy’s Merlot recommendation.
It’s another beautiful day up here in Wine Country. Estimated high later today should be around 100.
I gotta agree with Happy Camper. She looks like elvis in a wig.
P.S. I just do not like Clot-the all knowing assuming that I offered 1000$ for the house. I did ny homework, I calculated rent-equivalent mortgage +5% extra to seller and thats how I based my offer.
Since than I founf comparable house for rent at 30% lower that I though rent would be.
I am renting it now.
She varies from pic to pic. In some she is very hot, others not so much. Perhaps she can come and speak at the next GTG and afterwards we can all compare notes.
on the experience issue, I think P cuts both ways. I tend to agree that this is a huge leap up for her and that she is probably unprepared for the white house. at the same time, while people may legitimately ask this question, it also tends to highlight the fact that O is equally if not more unprepared, and he is at the top of the ticket. so I think this line of attack will not be productive for the dems.
regarding dink’s point at #154, I tend to agree. unfortunately, the most capable people probably don’t want to be prez and probably couldn’t get elected even if they wanted to.
What does “being ready for the white house” mean? It usually means a person that has sold their soul to the special interest groups and has no intentions or ability to make a change. I detest all politicians, but seeing people like this, especially tax slashers, is a breathe of fresh air.
P went through CVS and/or amnio screening during the last pregnancy and learned that the baby had DS.
That process in and of itself is a pro-choice action.
If she’s such a staunch pro-lifer, why even have the test? Just roll the dice and leave the results up to God.
Or did she want to know beforehand to prepare herself and her family if the test came back DS positive?
Let’s say the latter is true. What happens if Roe v. Wade is overturned, and along with that, the legality of pre-natal screening tests are called into question since most of them are used to determine whether to proceed with the pregnancy or not.
What will her position be then? Outlaw the tests that she herself went through?
She participated in what is without doubt the very essence of a pro-choice proceedure, yet would support legislation that would deny choice to over 80% of the mothers who choose to terminate with a positive DS result?
M and his staff didn’t think this all the way through. Someone is going to nail them on this, and she better have a brilliant answer that goes beyond “we look at him and see perfection.”
(158)-
So, you followed form, got your paperwork right and made a proper submission of an offer. Congratulations. Did you expect them to hand you the keys and walk away at that point?
I’m not saying your offer was good, bad, correct or incorrect. It’s just that what you, me or anybody else on this board thinks is “market value” is irrelevant. The seller- right or wrong- was not sufficiently enticed to respond quickly and with purpose. I’d suggest that’s the point at which you either settle back to wait these guys out or get aggressive in trying to elicit a real counteroffer. If you really wanted to buy a house, it’s not the point at which to throw your hands in the air and walk away, because the seller is playing “head games”.
If it was easy to jam lowballs past sellers, everybody would be doing it.
Buyers buy on emotion, then use facts to justify their purchases to themselves. Trying to buy on logic, then using emotion to walk yourself out of a potential deal, is a disaster 100% of the time.
Al (166)-
I didn’t assume you offered $1,000 for the place. However, it’s amusing to see somebody who doesn’t want to buy a house consciously set a process in motion that guarantess 100% failure.
160#, clot, not 100% true considering they take and spend over 20% income from individuals and corporations.
>We don’t run the country. Congress, the executive and the courts don’t run the country. The country is run by giant multinational companies and Wall Street. The fact that not a single person will go to jail over the ARS fraud is proof positive that we have a class of “untouchables” that control everything at the highest levels.
Politics is entertainment. And, the show just got a lot better today.
Clotpoll Says:
August 29th, 2008 at 3:32 pm
(158)-
So, you followed form, got your paperwork right and made a proper submission of an offer. Congratulations. Did you expect them to hand you the keys and walk away at that point?
Clot – you are not saying that offer was good or bad. You Ridiculed tried to make, you made it sound like I made super-lowball and turn it all into freaking nonsense.
Clotpoll Says:
August 29th, 2008 at 9:42 am
Al (35)-
Wouldn’t you categorize an ultra-lowball offer as a kind of mind game?
Sheez. I think every single deal I’ve ever done is a mind game.
And Yes I am tired of games Realtor’s play. They made RE market what it is.
EVERY HOUSE IS DIFFERENT!! But this house have a porch!! This house have a bush infront of it..
Or even worse – “we need to come in to look at the house when sellers are at home – this way they will see what a cute young couple with a newborn baby you are – this way they might like you.” (actually my first realtor said this)
F#ck that. I am shelling out 300K. I am not asking for charity. F3cking sit and die in you freak1ng house. Realtors do not need money.
Come on Clot – what kind of buisness is that???
As I said before – in USA NAR monopolized market, and ANY monopoly leads to degradation, corruption and simple diminishing of the services.
#170, exactly, see my post above. Also, the % of termination is in the high 90% by all studies I have read.
Seems like women for the most part have made up their minds on this issue.
They really didn’t think it through and how will she answer the “if your 12 yr old daughter was raped and impregnated” question, because it is on the horizon.
Clotpoll Says:
August 29th, 2008 at 3:36 pm
Al (166)-
I didn’t assume you offered $1,000 for the place. However, it’s amusing to see somebody who doesn’t want to buy a house consciously set a process in motion that guarantess 100% failure.
If they would accept my offer I would buy that house. Again you are talking $hit. I think in the end that house will sell for less than my offer.
And I know what seller’s agent realtor told the sellers – well we surelly can get betetr offer than that, As the house is in the town she lives in and “We do not want to bring comps down do we???”
170 lookout below
My wife had the test done during her last pregancy, and no matter what the outcome, would have had the baby. The same reason why we found out the sex of both our children ahead of time – we wanted to prepare one way or another. If “P” had a miscarriage after she did the amnio test, then you could speculate, but not after she found out about the DS and still had the child. I think you are really reaching here.
177.
there is within the prolife community efforts to make these tests illegal, esp the CVS test. But more to the point, if 90% of women terminate, who is she reaching here? Not the female vote, which I thought was the point.
Given the current turmoil with our monetary system and our foreign policy issues, I would say that the subjects of gay marriage and abortion should be the last things on our minds.
I have different model for selling houses :
Put the house on the market. Makeselling process a 6 month long auction:
Collect all bids during 6 month. If a bid sellers like comes withing 6 month – seller can sell it early. If seller did not get any bids during these 6 month – at the end of 6 month house is sold to highest bid.
MOST IMPORTANT: MAKE IT AN AN ABSOLUTE AUCTION, ONCE ENTERED INTO AN AUCTION PROCESS SELLER CAN NOT BACK OUT FOR FREE – OR HE CAN WITH LETS SAY 10K PENALTY.
If the house information is available this is the way to determine true market value, and only people who need to sell will actually go through the process.
Of course that makes realtor’s importance a bit lower, and discorages house-hopping, flipping and other stupid crap which has being going on.
Realtor will fight this one to the nail as this will means a lot less profits for them.
Feeling stimulated????
July disposable personal income — income after taxes — fell by 1.1%, after dropping 1.9% in June.
Government economic stimulus payments boosted the level of personal current transfer receipts by a mere $4.2 billion, at an annual rate, in July. The payments gave much larger boosts of $149.9 billion in June and $179.6 billion in May
hmm so personal income fell 1.9% in june even with 149 billion in stimulus payments and fell 1.1% in july with 4.2 billion in stimulus.
http://www.smartmoney.com/breaking-news/smw/index.cfm?story=20080829084142
Al,
I wouldn’t wait around for 6 months, just on principal alone. Two months, yes. Six? Nope.
Last one out turn off the lights
Bank of China flees Fannie-Freddie
Bank of China has cut its portfolio of securities issued or guaranteed by troubled US mortgage financiers Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac by a quarter since the end of June. The sale by China’s fourth largest commercial bank, which reduced its holdings of so-called agency debt by $4.6bn, is a sign of nervousness among foreign buyers of Fannie and Freddie’s bonds and guaranteed securities.
when do i get my bailout???
GM says US Car makers Deserve $50 Billion Bail-Out
A top General Motors executive said Thursday that automakers were “deserving” of as much as $50 billion in government-backed loans so that they can build more fuel-efficient cars.
G.M.’s vice chairman, Robert A. Lutz, said the car companies need money to retool their plants but probably cannot raise enough capital on their own because of the tight credit markets. He said the automakers have already made considerable progress in transforming themselves and that the government should help them proceed faster.
“The American auto industry is deserving of government loan guarantees,” Mr. Lutz told reporters at an event near Chicago where G.M. showed off its 2009 lineup. “We have done a whole bunch of things that people said, ‘Why aren’t you doing this?’ ”
#170
I also think that is a pretty attenuated argument. Honestly, try putting that into an ad or a soundbite (really the main means of getting out a message). I don’t see how it would work. People are going to look at P, married with 5 kids, one of whom is handicapped, and I think this will pretty much speak for itself. FWIW, I am not vehemently anti abortion (kind of think it should be limited to 1st trimester, barring health to mother reasons).
Didnt Pretorius say there wouldnt be layoffs???
For Lehman, More Cuts and Anxiety
On Wall Street, the ax keeps falling again and again. As the financial industry limps from one bleak quarter to the next, bankers and traders who dodged painful layoffs in the past year wonder if their luck is running out.
The issue gained new urgency on Thursday, as Lehman Brothers, Wall Street’s most troubled firm, prepared to lay off up to 1,500 people in its fourth round of cutbacks this year. Those layoffs, which would amount to about 6 percent of Lehman’s work force, are likely to come before the firm reports third-quarter results in mid-September, according to a person briefed on the plan.
The grim news at Lehman underscores not only the precarious state of that once-proud firm but also the pain afflicting the whole of Wall Street. Banks and securities firms have shed more than 101,000 jobs this year, according to Bloomberg News, as the mortgage crisis and struggling economy brought an abrupt end to years of prosperity for the financial industry. Few think the bloodletting will end there.
#1 I detest all the discussion of political crap here. Further, I find it affronting that people are providing personal commentary on stuff that is a little out of bounds.
#2 In my opinion, this VP move smacks of desperation and ultimately, until Palin is fully vetted, comes off as a publicity stunt. For the NJ voters, it is irrelevant anyway. O-man is going to carry the state…..any of the PA, NY or CT. It is pretty close to a done deal that O-man is going to carry those states. Even people such as Cindy are not going to have any effect here.
#179
“Given the current turmoil with our monetary system and our foreign policy issues, I would say that the subjects of gay marriage and abortion should be the last things on our minds.”
this is why I was pro-Romney. but I realize at this point that he couldn’t have won on his own and he would’ve been a liability for M
Russian River Wine Report Part 2 – It’s just 1PM here and we are both definitely buzzed.
Just left Twoney and we have to say that Cindy is WAY, WAY too hard on herself. Killer view, and more importantly, killer Merlot. We were the first to purchase their 2005 Merlot. It was so amazing that Stu poined up $65/bottle for it. Great rec, Cindy! Thanks.
Up the road there was a stand selling gorgoeus heirloom tomatos on the honor system. Stu wouldn’t let me buy any. Bad Stu.
We’re heading into downtown Healdsburg, one more vineyard and then down to SF. i’m going to make Stu eat gourmet vegan food tonight. It’s going to be fun.
I hope everyone has a terrific, long holiday weekend!
Chi– I disagree. I think a respectful discusssion of politics is fine (stress respectful) and relevant. We have an election in which very diff’t political philosophies are on the table. This will have an impact on housing.
Barb
There are a lot of pro-choice (and pro life) women for whom abortion is not their primary issue, my wife and mother included. I agree with you, S is not going to pick up the hard core abortionists. I think M/P is shooting for the security and soccer/hockey moms as well as the more libertarian minded women that may be leaning for The One.
atleast the US isnt doing anything origianl:
Japan Plans to Spend 2 Trillion Yen on Stimulus Plan
Japanese Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda, facing elections within a year, plans to spend about 2 trillion yen ($18 billion) to revive the world’s second-largest economy.
“For the NJ voters, it is irrelevant anyway.”
I disagree as well, she is good example of someone willing to take on their own corrupt party and make real reforms, I couldn’t think of a better example for NJ voters to see.
#185
Skeptic,
she will be in debates and there will be supreme court appointments with in the next few years, so I think it is and will be made very relevant in this election.
#191
JBJB
A few things to keep in mind this election season. Statistics show that more and more women are waiting to have childern. The increase in birth defects as men and women age are dramatic. Women who *thought* that abortion wasn’t a big issue with them are often suprised to be sitting in the gyno office at 40, pregnant for the first time, and hearing some damning statistics/odds that there could be a serious problem with their pregnancy.
Again, most people have a “not going to happen to me” approach the the abortion issue but the luxury of that perspective is fading fast as the population contiunes to put off childbearing till a later, riskier age.
#194
Barbara– fair enough. I’m just saying that the inconsistency you raise seems somewhat minor in the scheme of things. I have no doubt that some will find fault with this, but I suspect that the people who will are not really on the fence in terms of their votes.
NJLifer,
My wife is due shortly. We had the test as well. If we had tested DS positive, we would have terminated.
That would be our choice. Your choice would be to proceed with yours. In my heart, neither is wholly right or wholly wrong, and I can totally understand why someone would want to proceed with the pregnancy if that’s what they decided to do. Believe me, it would have been the most painful thing we’ve ever done if we had gotten a DS diagnosis and aborted.
As Barbara corrected me, over 90% of women who come back DS positive make the same decision. And so it is absolutely necessary to ask P what the purpose of those tests would be if Roe v. Wade were overturned. The details of that answer would do more to advance the Pro-Choice/Pro-Life debate than anything we’ve had in years, because both sides are so stridently entrenched that they can’t see the many, many nuances of the issue (like this one in particular).
Upcoming P scandal???
Do i see a baby bump? so who had the alcohol induced DS baby again?
http://tinyurl.com/59zywd
197
well said
POW MILF
http://tinyurl.com/5625l7
Kettle1 (184):
GM has some set of stones to say that they deserve a bailout. They had so many years and countless billions of dollars to upgrade their factories. Funny how the imports did it with no support. This is truly outrageous but in this age of too big to fail, they may get it.
We should start a lobbying group and ask for the NJ Real Estate Report Recapitalization Fund…
Barb
I am very aware of it. Just went through it actually. Again, I am not disagreeing, just pointing out that the P was not selected to try and turn that demographic.
I am so pro choice that I am willing to put a coat hanger through the ears of any pro choice person for free, maybe suck them into a powerful vacum that rips their arms and legs off.
On a more serious note, the most dangerous age to give birth is 34 for a women. When you turn 35 your risk level only very slightly rises from a 34.5 women. However, the 34.5 year old women is considered low risk by insurance and does not get amino etc. Heard of a few 33/34 women who had babies with issues that were totally suprised as all they got was a sonogram.
Plus this over 40 risk is overated. Back in the 1800’s my realtives all had 12-14 kids and believe me the last few were done at well over 40.
Charles Dharapak, AP
‘An Addition
To the First Family’
1 of 3
Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, here on Feb. 24, stunned her state Wednesday when
she announced she is expecting her fifth child in May. Although the 44-year-old
Republican is seven months along, she “simply doesn’t look pregnant,” a
reporter wrote in the Alaska Daily News.
Palin, 44, who just three months ago was modeling for the fashion magazine
Vogue, doesn’t look seven months pregnant.
“I will be delivering an addition to the first family,” Palin told a stunned
group of reporters.
The Republican governor, now in her second year as Alaska’s chief executive,
said she does not believe the pregnancy will affect her ability to run the
state. Palin has been mentioned as a potential running mate on the Republican
presidential ticket.
She said her work as Wasilla mayor had only a brief interruption when she had
her youngest daughter, Piper, six years ago.
“I had Piper on a Monday and I was back to work on a Tuesday,” Palin said. “I
even brought her to work with me.”
media rumor from alaska:
Second, Palin’s daughter Bristol is 16 and attends an Anchorage high school. Students who have attended class with her report that she has been out of school for months, claiming a prolonged case of mono.
That is a complete LIE!!!!!!!! Japan manipulated its currency for many years to support their imports and the Jap govt gave free health care so the auto companies did not have to have the expensive medical costs the US auto makers have. Then when the Japs decided to build here the south gave them tax breaks and they got the unions to revise the pension and salary rules. I think there should be the hybrid tax rebate for only american cars and some inexpensive govt. loans to build gas savings cars at best. GM made terrible cars for a long time, now there cars are pretty good but it costs them too much per car due to legacy costs.
All Hype Says:
August 29th, 2008 at 4:24 pm
Kettle1 (184):
GM has some set of stones to say that they deserve a bailout. They had so many years and countless billions of dollars to upgrade their factories. Funny how the imports did it with no support. This is truly outrageous but in this age of too big to fail, they may get it.
We should start a lobbying group and ask for the NJ Real Estate Report Recapitalization Fund…
201 JBJB
by demographic do you mean 51% of the population? Granted, blissful ignorance will cut that % down but still, women know these things and I can tell you, they are silent about it until the curtain closes behind them
FWIW, I think the risk of Roe been overturned is very slim and is urealisitcally played up by both sides of the debate in order to energize their bases. there is a high standard that must be met in order to overturn law that has been accepted for as long as the basic holding of Roe. O’Connor laid out this standard rather exhaustively in Casey (for those interested, see link to opinion below):
http://caselaw.lp.findlaw.com/scripts/getcase.pl?court=US&vol=505&invol=833
The DS baby is DEFIANTLY the 17 yr old daughters. Palin is actually grandma!!!
P = (g)ILF
http://www.adn.com/news/alaska/story/382560.html
Palin was in Texas at a Republican Governors Association energy conference last week when early signs of labor began. She said she called her doctor early Thursday morning after some amniotic fluid began to leak. She talked over what was happening with her doctor, and they consulted about what to do.
She gave the keynote luncheon address, then she and Todd caught an Alaska Airlines flight back to Alaska. She said was never in full-blown labor on the plane but was having a contraction or two every hour.
come on really, this just screams baby bump
http://media.adn.com/smedia/2008/03/09/01/687-3504039.standalone.prod_affiliate.7.jpg
would this scandal destroy her chance at office?
you only need a saliva sample from the DS kid and from the 17 yr old to prove this one way or the other. Not hard for a good investigative reporter to get. just need a soda can or cup they drank from. I want to see the test!
Al (174)-
I’m not ridiculing your offer. I’m ridiculing your ass-backwards process.
Al (176)-
“I think in the end that house will sell for less than my offer.”
Yep. To somebody other than you.
Al (176)-
“Again you are talking $hit.”
Al, I’ve run about 55 deals this year. You may think I’m a punk, but I know from selling houses.
Al (180)-
Classic. You can’t play the game, so you propose a new game: one that suits you to a T.
Take your marbles and go home.
John (202)-
“Back in the 1800’s my realtives all had 12-14 kids…”
John, this may be the most telling statement you’ve made about yourself.
skep (206)-
I seem to even remember Roberts- during his confirmation hearings- expressing no real taste for trying to overturn settled law.
This whole choice thing is a rallying point for the extremists on both sides.
John Says:
August 29th, 2008 at 4:35 pm
On a more serious note, the most dangerous age to give birth is 34 for a women. When you turn 35 your risk level only very slightly rises from a 34.5 women. However, the 34.5 year old women is considered low risk by insurance and does not get amino etc. Heard of a few 33/34 women who had babies with issues that were totally suprised as all they got was a sonogram.
JJ: The way it was explained to my wife is that there is a statistical probability of a birth defect that rises with age. There is also a statistical probability that the amino procedure will damage the fetus up to and including termination. The probability of damage from the procedure exceeds the likelihood of a defect until age 35. Once the likelihood of a defect rises sufficient, it justifies (on a probability basis) facing the risk.
sufficient-ly
Okay Home seller’s can you do me one small favor, please!!
When I bring you a contract and we sign the sales agreement, please read the line about “broom clean” at closing.
That means………. don’t leave your “stuff”, empty paint cans, garbage pilled at the curb.
Have pride it what your selling and don’t punish the buyer for liking it enough to buy it.
PLAN AHEAD PEOPLE DON’T WAIT TILL THE DAY OF CLOSING!!!
okay so an angry realtor on a friday night of a holiday weekend makes a lot of spelling mistakes… sorry
it is a problem with our political system that candidates almost always end up being captured by the extremists in their parties. this is what is so attractive about people like Bloomberg who can afford to have no real party affiliation. some people think that if you don’t attract the real zealots, you have no longterm viability (Rove). it all depends on whether you suppose the non-zealots are just more reasonable (and will respond enthusiastically to reasonable politics) or whether they are just apathetic. I think the development of O’s campaign is interesting because in the beginning, he seemed to want to at least portray himself as seeking this reasonable middle. More recently, he has emerged as a more traditional liberal. Although I suspect this was his true identity all along, it would be sad if in fact he determined that the middle road was simply unviable (as I believe M did post-2000)
Friday bank failure !!
The amusingly named Integrity Bank of Alpharetta GA was closed by the FDIC today.
On a side note; My mom had my youngest brother when she was 42 (yes it was a surprise). He’s going off to college for the first time this weekend. He’s a little odd but seems to have turned out ok, so older women having kids is fine by me.
Hi, I’ve been reading this blog every day for weeks. Good stuff.
In the context of Al and Clotpoll’s discussion on brokers and sellers, what do people think about a seller who also happens to be a broker with a national firm?
Would love to hear your thoughts.
Gator and Stu live blogging from In n Out Burger in Roenhert Park.
I take Stu for expensive vegan food. He takes me to In n Out Burger. I think that’s why our marriage works!
After tasting at Twomey, an unfortunate GPS mixup has us discovering Bella on W Dry Creek Rd. We confirm that we are not big fans of Syrah. After a relaxing tasting in the caves, we walk away with 2 bottles of Zinfandel.
Eventually we made our way up to Ferrari-Carano (sorry Clot!). Beautiful grounds, but the wines were definitely more mass market. We did enjoy the Tre Terre Chardonnay and their red blend.
All in all, we are coming home with 24 bottles. Not a bad haul!
Stay tuned for more later from SF and then next month, we will live blog from LA and the Mexican Riviera with Lil Gator.
Mas cerveza por favor?
#215 chifi,
that’s the way we heard it too. The bloodwork and ultrasound tests came back normal so we refused to have amnio. We thought the risks of losing a healthy baby were several times the chance of having a baby with DS or some other special needs. If i reember right the chances of something abnormal go way up once the mother is over 40 or 42. Maybe one of the people in medicine could fill us in on this?
bairen,
risk goes up after 35 but takes a big jump as soon as you hit 40. Older dads also increase the risk. At 40, you have a 1 in 60 chance of having a positive read on a baby with DS, spinabifida or, and I forget the medical term, but the defect where the fetus basically develops headless.
bairen, adding, and after 40 those odds increase dramatically with each passing year
Thanks Barbara,
#186 kettle: All the lay offs are in Manhattan Beach Cal, and Manahttan Kansas.
N J Gator and Stu…Glad you liked the Twomey. It was obviously memorable for me too. It’s steaks and wine at a friends tonight so I’ll take a pad and pen and WRITE DOWN what we drink. THEY know the wines – not me. I’m simply a lucky guest.
I was pro-choice …. gave her the money, and thought that was that. Now … years later I wish with all my heart I could change that day ……….
Good choice for the Mc man deflects O’s attack dog & may get a chunk of Hillary’s action.
Simple but true. Anything deeper the general public ain’t going to know or care.
No sense going farther on her.
Hot for sure. (I’m older than most here).
Maybe I should rethink that farther thing.
Clot,
Could you offer some discourse on your 55 deals to date so we can get away from the headless baby stuff?
Thanks for the link @ 67 – Make – excellent.
# Clotpoll Says:
August 29th, 2008 at 5:05 pm
Al (180)-
Classic. You can’t play the game, so you propose a new game: one that suits you to a T.
Take your marbles and go home.
Clot – I am not playing the game, I am buying a house. And no matter what you say I will buy a house. It will probably not be in NJ.
As I said before you are full of shit. All you can do is insult people.
NO Realtor will like my proposal because it will expose fact that Realtors do have MONOPOLY and they abuse it.
So keep insulting me – when people discard normal discussion and go directly to ridiculing or insults this means they have no arguments to support their position.
Look at all your posts today – all you do is insult me and try to ridicule my opinion.
Does this come with your job??? Or do you just vent on this blog, after the day of sucking up to your clients?
Me and my wife had a kid in our 40’s no prob, the secret is that I don’t have rusty sperm. Lot of those nerdy late in lifers have a lot of rust in them pipes.
rusty sperm is the real issue, my pipes are clean as a whistle I could pump them out at 80 if I wanted to!!!! Speaking of that happy Labor Day to the pregos.
Maybe the govs daughter did do a Juno!!
“In picking an unknown, untested, half-a-term woman governor from Alaska to be his running mate, John McCain is following in a long line of reckless men who have rolled the dice for a beauty queen. Except in this case, McCain is taking one of the biggest, boldest gambles in modern American political history,” – Dan Gerstein, a former adviser to Sen. Joe Lieberman
Al,
I know Clot personally. You are wrong.
I don’t recall you ever introducing yourself to the folks here….but
from my standpoint, you appear to be an extremely angry frustrated person who is unable to get what he wants.
The insults seem to be coming primarily from you, along with the venting….
Maybe you need to take a breather from house-hunting.
Just my observations.
sl
Going back to future, from 8/28/2006. Schiff’s accuracy is unbelievable.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LfascZSTU4o
What’s with all the Hoboken foreclosures?
http://www.realtytrac.com/MapSearch/MapSearch/MapSearch.aspx?txtZip=07030
NJGator-
For a second, I thought you had a CA GTG with Cindy in Napa.
My wife and I went about 12 years ago. Had a blast. Went to the spa in Saratoga. Side note, my wife was flipped off three times driving in No. CA. She’s a lifelong Brooklyn driver?
Gwen,
I think I coined a phrase not too long ago. The word is: UnRealtoristic, meaning a realtor who should be aware of the market, and yet still price their own house at a smoking crack price.
KL
Skep,
“he has emerged as a more traditional liberal. Although I suspect this was his true identity all along”
Suspect? Heck, his voting record makes clear this is what he is. I believe he has the second or third most liberal voting record in the Senate.
Board poll:
If you have been on the sidelines, waiting to buy, when do you plan to buy?
What % do expect to put down?
And lastly, do you expect it to still be like pulling teeth out there, or do you anticipate a major culture change from seller to buyer market with the pricing and ease of deal?
January of 2010
20%
Easy buying as sellers will really be hurting by then.
mid to late ’09
(unless an unrefusable deal for the type of place we are looking for rolls by.)
50%
With the economy is sad shape and getting worse, probably easier. By then the inventory is going to be many bank-owned properties.
Regardless of who’s “in charge” in Jan, our economy is in dire straits.
sl
mid to late 09 unless something really reasonable appears. 50%, longer if I feel the declines have longer legs. Might want to wait longer for alt-a crap to set in.
Grim,
This week’s report from the hinterlands…
Hunterdon County Comp Killers:
MLS#: 2503091
103 WESTCHESTER TER
Clinton Twp
SLD: 06/09/05 $260,000
OLP: 03/29/08 $269,900
SLD: 08/29/08 $255.000
DOM: 103
MLS#: 2479778
11 ASH COURT
Clinton Twp
SLD: 09/29/05 $777,390
OLP: 01/23/08 $798,000
SLD: 08/27/08 $699.000
DOM: 182
MLS#: 2469639
161 ASTER COURT
Readington Twp
SLD: 09/08/05 $320,000
OLP: 12/28/07 $325,900
SLD: 08/28/08 $288.000
DOM: 224
MLS#: 2547921
8 HAY BARRICK ROAD
Readington Twp
SLD: 12/07/06 $505,000
OLP: 07/11/08 $510,000
SLD: 08/27/08 $480.000
DOM: 20
MLS#: 2513694
20 LAUREL MOUNTAIN WAY
Tewksbury Twp
SLD: 04/11/02 $1,401,750
OLP: 05/01/08 $1,525,000
SLD: 08/29/08 $1,300,000
DOM: 76
Gwen (219)-
That broker will be as good a seller as he is a broker.
scribe (229)-
The 55 hardest deals I ever did. Sure wish I was out in Sonoma. I’d be chugging Zin right out of the bottle.
I take that back. I wish I was in Scotland. Balvenie packs more of a punch.
‘Nuf said.
Deal #55? The place is such a W Virginia crapbox POS, the borrower hasn’t paid his mortgage in FOUR YEARS, but the bank doesn’t want to foreclose. It’s actually cheaper for them to let the borrower live there for free.
Finally…finally, the lender decides they have to foreclose (against their will). They filed the LP 18 months ago, but the borrower makes no attempt to do anything until THE DAY BEFORE THE SHERIFF SALE. Of course, the borrower decides to share his misery with us, and we get the call.
Incredibly (and since the bank really doesn’t want to foreclose), we go to the sheriff sale, plead our case and win an adjournment. The bank’s attorney pretty much tells us we can sell the dump short for whatever we can get, but we have two weeks to get it done.
We put the place out at a price that will get the job done and amazingly field an offer that will even put “moving money” in the borrower’s pocket. Done deal, right? Wrong. The borrower has now decided that we’re giving his house away and wants even more money for his abattoir of human hope.
Thursday, we summoned the borrower to my office for a come to Jesus meeting for the ages. After peeling the paint with Goober Pyle, signatures are obtained and all is well.
After Goober left my office, we had to spray the conference room and turn off the AC, as his personal stench had gotten into the ductwork and was spreading through the building.
There are probably easier ways to make a buck than this.
GM
Clot, what your feelings on open houses?are they worth it?
#245 clot
There are probably easier ways to make a buck than this.
But are they as entertaining?
Al (231)-
You are too clueless to merit further response. As for my “sucking up” to clients, I’d refer you to post #245.
The fact that you can’t figure out how to buy a house has nothing to do with a monopoly of agents, all conspiring to thwart you in particular. It has everything to do with your subconscious desire to self-sabotage in the face of success.
Gustav update
<i. Gustav should make landfall on Tuesday as a major category 3 hurricane somewhere in central Louisiana. The past two days of Gustav’s progression and consistent model runs have helped to increase my confidence in this forecast, and I’m tempted to narrow the likely landfall area slightly to Lake Charles to Houma. The worst effects will be felt to the east of the landfall location.
For those in New Orleans – remember, the right front quadrant of storm is the most intense (think coastal Mississippi in Katrina), and the combination of the landfall location (about 50 mi to the west) and the angle of approach (from the SE) is nearing a worst-case scenario for the New Orleans area. Storm surge could be in excess of 15-20 feet. Meteorologically, this storm could (could!) be worse than Katrina for New Orleans.
google earth damage projections
http://tinyurl.com/6rxav4
note NO levies are rated for a Cat2, this storm currently has the possibility of hitting as a Cat 4 and will probably be at least a Cat3!
If you have friends or family in NO strongly urge them to evacuate
cooper (246)-
Worth it?
For the seller, absolutely not. For the agent, yes.
Two reports about dinner last night: First about R/E – then wine.
R/E: My builder friend (who went from 30plus employees down to 9) is now holding 6 mortgages and has added to his rental base. Buyers are having a hard time getting financing on the entry-level homes he builds in some small towns nearby. That is problem #1.
Problem #2: He has radically cut his staff yet the cities he works in have not. So now they are adding extra fees when he builds to
cover the unwarranted staff they are still carrying. That makes it harder for his numbers to work.
Problem #3: (my observation) The banks are not liquidating their repos in the town where I live quickly enough. My neighborhood still has the same three repos for sale because the banks have only come down 30% off peak. In areas where they have come down 40-50% – They are selling.
I wish now that I had discussed that problem with my builder friend last night to get his read on the phenomenon but then the wine enters the mix…
The wine: (to go with ribeyes from Costco)
I was sent home with a 2006 Argentina merlot LaGarto – vina cobos – Paul Hobbs of Napa is evidently a consultant. Tasty and evidently very reasonable. We also had a Duckhorn merlot.
Pinots -Bella glos 2006 Meiomi Sonoma Coast. Roco 2005 – Wilamette Valley – Dundee Oregon. Foley 2006 – Rancho Santa Rosa. Robert Stemmler Nugent Vineyard 2005 Russian River Pinot.
One sarah – Novy – things are pretty sketchy from there – that was after dinner…
All of the wines were evidently reasonable (except maybe the Duckhorn.) I asked about the Goldeneye pinot we had at the last party (it had to be memorable or I wouldn’t know the name) and it is expensive but they said there is a Migration knockoff brand that is outstanding.
Kettle
re: NOLA
Spoke to a friend yesterday. He says they haven’t officially issued an evacuation order but some aren’t waiting for it. His wife was going to leave yesterday with their infant daughter. He was staying behind to secure the house and if he had to, he’d leave Sunday. (Keep in mind that during Katrina there was very little damage in his neighborhood. He had a tree fall on his porch doing minimal damage.)
He says people’s attitudes about hurricanes are mostly the same- they are for parties. He says what’s worrying people now is that no one thinks the levees will hold and that’s why they’re going to leave.
Clot, #245
Wow
The bank must think you’re a miracle worker.
My relatives who are involved with a charity – they got a call from someone who hadn’t paid his mortgage for 18 months. Gas & electric way in arrears – about to be shut off any minute. But he still thinks when it gets down to the wire, he can put the house on the market for $100,000 more than the mortgage, which would be way out of the money. Small development house. Everything is packed in boxes, but when they go over there, the wide-screen TV is still blasting away.
And Clot – May I add to (232) Still-Looking’s comments that your insight has always been appreciated. You have put up with so may lame@ss questions and comments of mine!
“uh, Cindy – Insurance only covers the structures – not the land – Duh -”
(245) How does a deal like that go through WITHOUT an experienced realtor.
Clotpoll,
You are going to love this one…
MLS#: 2571653
I recognized the place as soon as saw the picture. I’m sure you’ll know it, too.
I just couldn’t get over the remarks below:
REM: Restored Greek Revival house in charming historic village. Unique!! Sun-drenched rooms. Now a single-family home/Potential commercial use. Hi-tech systems and appliances included. Clean/well-cared for, but there’s lots of stuff. Promise: Will be broom clean at closing.
So… they were thinking that showing it dirty would be a good marketing strategy…?
lost 252,
based on reports from independent groups, the levies cannot withstand a storm of this magnitude, they will collapse if this storm hits at more then a Cat2. also remember that the mst dangerous part of the storm is the NE quadrant. NO is directly in the path of this section of the storm. The worst case is rapidly becoming the most likely scenario.
Can somebody post what they think is the right price for the homes with future comps so we know the justified market price for that home.Considering rent in the area and rent x 15 as the right price.
we seem to argue that prices are too high w/o knowing the projected real market price.
Kettle
I’m well aware. I’m praying that it changes course or they downgrade to a storm. I don’t know if I can get off of work to go down there and volunteer if it does hit full strength.
Grim,
Hinterlands report part 2…
Hunterdon County FUTURE Comp Killers:
MLS#: 2570907
4 KNOLL TAVERN ROAD
Delaware Twp
SLD: 07/27/06 $785,000
OLP: 08/26/08 $779,000
DOM: 4
MLS#: 2570120
18 CREGAR AVENUE
High Bridge Boro
SLD: 07/24/03 $240,000
OLP: 08/25/08 $236,900
DOM: 5
MLS#: 2571447
8 KENTWORTH COURT
Raritan Twp
SLD: 09/23/05 $374,000
OLP: 08/28/08 $359,000
DOM: 2
#227 Roy – That says it all for me.
Shallow Recessions, Shallow Recoveries
By FLOYD NORRIS
Published: August 29, 2008
THEY don’t make economic recoveries like they used to.
“It seems there is some easing in the pace of growth,” said Lakshman Achuthan, the managing director of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, whose calculations are reflected in the accompanying charts.
Economic recoveries in the decade after World War II were brisk affairs, but then they slowed. The pace of recoveries seemed to have stabilized in the 1980s and 1990s, he said, but “now we have taken another step down. We don’t know why.”
Mr. Achuthan believes the recovery that began in 2002 ended in October, as the economy entered a recession. “I have no doubt that we are in a recession now,” he said, although he added that it was possible that the National Bureau of Economic Research, when it eventually determines when the recovery ended, could choose a different month.
I hate getting into politics and honestly between m and o I see no real signs of hope but…
On the anniversary of katrina, with the worries of gustov looming, maybe those hit hardest by katrina weren’t going to be paying attention that the rep vp was a proponent of the bridge to nowhere project up her state’s congressmen couldn’t get the us taxpayers to fund the project completely. Even after some in congress debated weather to give the money to help the victims of katrina, AK still got the money but it wasn’t marked for any specific purpose. So when the gov decided not to build the bridge, she just distributed some of the cash out to her citizens after the state wound up with a surplus. Getting hundreds of millions of dollars for a bridge that never gets built is a pretty sweet deal.
As for her stance on abortion here’s something from an interview when she was running for governor.
“If Roe v. Wade were overturned and states could once again prohibit abortion, in your view, to what extent should abortion be prohibited in Alaska?
Under this hypothetical scenario, it would not be up to the governor to unilaterally ban anything. It would be up to the people of Alaska to discuss and decide how we would like our society to reflect our values.”
beer (266)-
I look forward to Saturday mornings. Good job weeding out the Hunterdon Co. “gems”!
269#,according to this cnn report, it was governor palin who abandoned the project. if the money was still sent to alaska after that, it was not her responsibility.
http://www.cnn.com/2007/US/09/22/alaska.bridge.ap/
bi, she abandoned the project because she didn’t want alaska to pay for any of it. When she didn’t get all the money she needed she used the money for other things.
272, if she got extra money, it is her job to use it for other things in her state or distribute to the citizens of the state. again, it is the job of congress to determine if they should take money back if that is the case.
The thousands of people still living in FEMA trailers may have a different opinion.
269,
as a women, I don’t let “society” govern my body. They don’t call it mob rule for nothing.
To liberal documentary filmmaker Michael Moore, the bounds are seemingly endless. Moore has made a recent career out of attacking President George W. Bush, bashing conservatives and criticizing business. His latest outrage occurred on MSNBC’s August 29 “Countdown with Keith Olbermann” and when he commented about the coincidental timing of an unfortunate disaster – the potential for Hurricane Gustav to make landfall at the beginning of the Republican National Convention in St. Paul, Minn.
“I was just thinking, this Gustav is proof that there is a God in heaven,” Moore said, laughing. “To have it planned at the same time – that it would actually be on its way to New Orleans for day one of the Republican Convention, up in the Twin Cities – at the top of the Mississippi River.”
http://www.businessandmedia.org/articles/2008/20080830000004.aspx
Barbra 275 Couldn’t agree with you more I also feel the mob shouldn’t be paying for your choice or have any say in it. Not the Government’s business. Now if you want the gov to fund it that is how people let them have power over the issue.
Hey guys,
Found a possible property on LBI that is 140k less the last one.
It is commercial zoned in a very good residential location (although on the main Blvd), is a 1980’s residential style house on pilings built very well. An amazingly robust modern structure for my budget.
The owners since 2000 were a business that occuoies and obviously do not want to be a landlord.
Purchased 2000 for 285K. Listed in Jan 2008 for 549. (likely would have sold for upper 4s no problem in 2005/6). Lowered to 499 within a month. 449 within another month. And down to 399 end of June (in time to get rid of in the summer I imagine).
It cannot current be changed in zoing to full residentila, but my resarch shows various options for using it for partial residential. Options vary from needing a variance (which is confirmed posible) to adding a first level commercial unit and using the upper floor for residential.
Would also be a great candidate for 2 small condos in the next boom.
It is too low $ for a typical commercial loan, and they also need renters lined up for financing.
Offered 355 contingent on the seller converting to full residential (impossible). Seller countered with 370 as is with 30 day closing. I guess they are hungry, but for a cash offer.
Based on my research with the town (with the confirmation that a variance is assured) I am looking to go back with a lower offer with no change in zoning requirement.
The problem is getting a reasonable loan. I was able to get a broker to convince a resid lender to provide a commercial mortgage at 6.5 fixed for 5 yrs – term 20 (or 25) years 1 pt / 3 yr prepayment penalty.
My credit rating is great and I still have good equity in my primary residence.
Any help in finding additonal lenders that can help?
#276 bi
Did you see the interview? I liked the pictures of GW & M sharing M’s birthday cake as NO floods from Katrina and chaos reigns.
M’s choice of VP s so alarming it may actually motivate me to hold my nose and vote for O instead of sitting this one out.
278 Bubble
I can’t help you with a lender but I’d like to thank you for the anectode (sp?). Sorry its the wine.
Anyway, I wasn’t sure I’d ever see that number in LBI. Thank you for the glimmer of hope.
#278 bubblewatcher,
Wow, the rout on LBI is on. Hopefully prices like that will be hitting my area next spring/summer(Y2K price plus 3% annual appreciation)
man this is a tough crowd. I couldnt even get a response from the whole “baby momma” scandal crap!
FYI if both Gustav and Hanna cross the portion of tge Gulf of mexico south of texas and louisiana, then you can expect gas prices to be $5+ within 1 -2 weeks and parts of the US could see fuel shortages.
The US has noticably smaller stock piles of Gasoline, oil and natural gas then when katrina hit and the 2 hurricanes combined could cause almost unprecedented swaths of damage to gulf oil infrastructure.
On top of that 2 hurricanes will due extensive damage to power supplies, power lines, generation, substations etc. and it could take months to be fully online again.
by the way Gustav is now a Cat5! 155+ MPH winds sustained.
Oh and to sweeten the dealm there are 2 other tropical depressions in the atlantic right behind hanna that could form hurricanes.
Someone really pissed GOD off!!!
current damage estimates:
25ft peak surge and around $15 Billion in onshore damage if the levees hold, $47 Billion if they don’t.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/HAW2/english/surge/new_orleans.shtml
projected storm surge from a Cat4 similar to gustav htting NOLA. includes quicktime video animation.
Kettle 284
I’m pretty sure thats not going to happen. The French Quarter is on higher ground. When Katrina hit, the quarter was practically dry. I’m not sure what would cause the flooding to be different with Gustov. If this was the case, the rest of NOLA would literally be under water.
#170-
“Someone is going to nail them on this…….”
if obama listened to this kind of advice, he’d be sunk.
just because some people have tests to determne if they are going to have an abortion, doesn’t mean everyone does. i had the tests, and there was no way i’d abort. i personally have a lot of friends who did the same. we all don’t think like you.
if you want m to win, why don’t you become an advisor to o and tell him to persue this argument.
cindy (261)-
Your questions aren’t lame. Thanks very much for the shout out.
Believe me, I get 10x more from this board than I could ever take away. This place is my eyes and ears to the market.
beer (262)-
Nothing like setting a low expectation, then exceeding it! ;)
Can someone tell me why Heilman is still getting paid to pitch?
Stu (288)-
To help us forget Mel Rojas?
I think we should do some more offshore drilling. Who cares if we have to rebuild the platforms every 3 years (if we’re lucky). Right JBJB?
Republican Morons!
And bi…
If someone accidentally sends you a check for $100,000 and you spend it, then you are responsible for paying it back when the mistake is found. Your mind is both immature and immoral.
Stu (290)-
But it will provide lots of work to RIG, WFT, NOV, etc.
Good American jobs!
Stu (291)-
C’mon dude…everybody knows it’s not illegal or unethical if you don’t get caught.
Magpies go to the Emirates today, looking to give the Gooners a nasty time. Everything about the way we’ve played this year was telling me we’d at least come away with a point.
Nope. 3-0, Arsenal.
At least the Mets give you some hope before pulling the rug out from under. Newcastle? Just pure, unrelenting hell.
Clot says:
“But it will provide lots of work to RIG, WFT, NOV, etc.
Good American jobs!”
I don’t wish for the hell that is about to take place in New Orleans. Katrina was a sun shower compared to the power of this storm. Forget the levees and the flooding. The winds and storm surge alone might due more damage. My sadness will only be tempered by my long term investment in Nabors. All of a sudden, land drilling for NG is looking like a much better bet. Have you been following Clean Energy (Picken’s company). I could shoot myself for not investing in his hype machine.
stu,
regarding NG
the ride may be meteoric, but so will the fall. there is clear misinformation out there. if you compare public info sources you will see NG production is overstated and the cost per mmcf is taking off. all very bad news.
Stu
I must disagree.
The wind and rains in NOLA in the past haven’t been an issue to the people who live there. The issue to them right now is the possibility of flooding because the levees will not hold. I cannot speak to the refineries nor do I care to explore them. My concern is for the people who live there, people who used to live there and the structural integrity of the buildings of the city.
And of course, the Hand Grenades.
Lost,
just looked at latest projections. if things do not change then most of NOLA WILL be under water. the storm is projected to hit during high tide which will amplify its effect. It is also now projected to hit as a CAT 5!!!
Current projections also suggest that even Baton Rouge is not safe and current recommendations are to Evac beyond Baton Rouge.
oil infrastructure damage projections:
Extensive damage and an extended recovery time probably measured in months. The pipelines to shore are probably in a lot of trouble on this trajectory due to scour.
Chuck Watson update 17:00 EST 8/30: The tables show the expected and forecast cumulative production from the GOM at the end of each period. So according to the runs based on the Official NHC forecast, at the end of 90 days the GOM would have produced only 70 MMBBL as opposed to the normal 103 MMBBL, a 30% cumulative shut in.
That is a 30% reduction in output just for gustav, hanna could still add to the problem!
“I think we should do some more offshore drilling. Who cares if we have to rebuild the platforms every 3 years (if we’re lucky). Right JBJB?”
Excuse me? Is this some kind of taunt? You have got to be kidding me. Are you implying that we should not produce energy because a natural disaster might destroy said energy production equipment? What a f-ing joke you are. You are not even worth a response, but since I’m up…
What do you think happens when a tornado hits and electricity power plant? What do you think will happen when a tornado hits a wind or solar farm?
Your right, we should not develop energy sources becuase god forbid, we might have a thunderstorm. Instead lets import our oil and natural gas from Russia, or Kuwait, or Saudi Arabia, then can get cut off on the whim of some 3rd world dictator.
I could not think of a better example of the ignorant liberal, go back to to touring the Wine Country and complaining about your 25 dollar insurance co-pay, and your feigned “concern” about the people of New Orleans. I’m sure they are comforted by the fact that you care so much after your 2nd bottle of Rodney Strong.
Lost
current projections put peak storm surge at 25 ft. 25ft is approx 8 meters.
http://flood.firetree.net/?ll=29.9615,-90.2280&z=6&m=8
this map will show you what is below water at a water depth of 25 ft. the map is for sea level rise, but the information is the same.
a level of flooding shown on this map would require extensive levee failure. a very real possibility in a Cat/5 storm
Lost,
Katrina produced a 14ft storm surge in NOLA. This storm right now looks like it could produce a storm surge 10ft higher.
realtime flood watch for gustav by USGS
http://water.usgs.gov/waterwatch/gustav/
stu 279 It would seem that the the democratic morons will be jumping on board for drilling soon. Polls don’t you know.
Lets not generalize & leave it at that.
Ket Maybe NO isn’t such a good place to have a city anymore. You think? No matter what you build sooner or latter mother nature will win. It’s a shame but true.
That’s later.
More coffee!
OT from Friday…
Bush Signs Sole Survivor Benefits Law –
McClatchy News
“President Bush on Friday signed the Hubbard Act, surrounded by members of the CA family whose multiple sacrifices inspired the military pay-and-benefits law.”
Peggy and Jeff Hubbard are from here in Clovis. Their sons, Jared and Nathan, attended Buchanan High. Jason was killed when his Black Hawk was shot down and Jared by a road side bomb. After losing two sons in Iraq, their third son Jason returned home early on an honorable discharge but was to lose benefits. The law will restore benefits to about 50 US soldiers who have returned early as sole survivors.
Clotpoll Says:
August 30th, 2008 at 11:00 pm
Stu (290)- But it will provide lots of work to RIG, WFT, NOV, etc.
Good American jobs!
clot: most of these guys are contractually booked out to the horizon….it is one of the main arguments as to why they should not bounce around with the price of oil and instead be a binary. Oil more expensive than about $60, busy…busy…busy…
I look at Gustav as a fundamental negative. These guys have a job to do, and they only get paid to do it. Downtown and destruction is bad for business because the customers do not pay when the work is not completed.
You could argue that Varco is in good straights as they build ships, but in reality, I think they are in the same position as Boeing….
Downtown = Down time
300 Kettle
Thanks for the map. Looks like the business and warehouse district will get it badly. And more of the Quarter then last time.
If Hanna joins Gustov or hits right after, they will never survive it. I called my friend back last night to tell him to get the hell out of there. I haven’t heard back from anyone else. I hope they were smart enough to leave early. Bu then again, stubborn as the day is long.
#270. Clotpoll
Thanks. I look forward to it too because its my way of giving back to the board. I am almost ashamed to admit how painfully ignorant I was before I found this site. Well, I’m a quick study and now I’m looking to return the favor.
willwork4beer
I enjoy those too. How do put those lits together? i’d be interested in learning how to do that for Somerset county.
I saw Hope for you home last night. That show really bugged me. I have no sympathy for people who are facing foreclosure because their teaser rate on their pos is about to reset. People who are facing foreclosure due to job loss, illness, divorce, i feel sorry or. FBs who used a teaser rate, no pity for you.
The family last night had a real dump. The master bath was unusable. It could easily have been fixed up using 1 weekend a month for 1 or 2 years. Nope. let’s wait till the arm has reset before we think about doing anything to improve the look of the place. Paint, sod, grass seed, sliding mirror doors are pretty inexpensive fixes. Yet somehow they had granite in that pos!
NJ RE market is holding up, despite what Clotpoll says:
Total Inventory: 107,326
Average List Price: 509,824
Days on the market: 140.1
stu have new companies:
Fowler Fouls: Hurricane is God’s Favor to Democrats
http://www.redstate.com/diaries/absentee/2008/aug/30/fowler-fouls-hurricane-is-gods-favor-to-dem/
Gustav is going to kill the refiners and airlines?
Rutgers plays Fresno State tomorrow and here is part of what they have as the lead story on our sports page:
“The first thing you notice about the Rutgers campus is that it’s roughly the size of Greenland.”
“The name sounds like a small private college with a dozen ivy-covered buildings and tasteful school uniforms, but that would be far from the actual situation.”
“Rutgers has an ecological preserve in the middle of the campas where they could have filmed “The last of the Mohicans.” You could head to Accounting 208 and not be seen for a month. The preserve, alone, could hold the entire Fresno State campus.”
“Rutgers has a bus system that has at least 10 different lines. The city of Clovis only has five.”
“All of this makes a campus newcomer about as lost as a Moses follower; and it doesn’t help when you show up on the Saturday that happens to be freshman move-in/orientation day. The first six students I asked for directions to a library, stared like I’d asked for an autograph. Any one of them could have made a guess. Turns out there are 26 libraries at Rutgers.”
Please don’t hurt us too badly.
280,281
LBI is not quite that weak. The prices are back to 2003 to 2004 in most cases. But inventory is low as most are waiting for the market to improve (when 2016?).
This on took a hit to 2002 price because it is an orphan that is worth less than vacant property. It is commercial but built as residential style. The owner is NOTa private indiv who thinks they have gold. Commercial is dead on the island and comes with high taxes, noisier street, porr financing options, higher insurance, etc. If this house were one house back and zoned residential, it would sell for 100k more even in this market.
IMHO LBI will probably drop 20 to 40% in this downturn and no more.
Clot – do you have any advice or lenders who could offer the above loan or better?
#304 Yes, it is a shame, but true. The same might be true for the barrier islands along the east coast. What did Shore say a few weeks ago about the Outer Banks losing a few feet a year? I guess the market will decide this too; insurance companies will decline to cover structures in harm’s way.
“What did Shore say a few weeks ago about the Outer Banks losing a few feet a year? ”
That came from an official State of NC Web site. Most of the OB are losing 2+ feet/yr. Some places as much as 15’/yr. Now to build, one must be something like 60 times the annual loss rate. There ia a reason why people used to build small beach houses; they get blown away/washed away now and then.
We seem to think that the way things are is they way they always were and will always be. It just isn’t so, and never was.
#311 bairen
I get the lists of the past week’s closings/ new actives from GSMLS. Then I compare the sales prices/ asking prices with the last recorded sale via the Monmouth County tax record site that has been posted here a few times. If the sales price/ asking price is below the last recorded sale price- voila- a Comp Killer is born. Sometimes the tax record appears to be incomplete or not updated. In that case I do an archive search on GSMLS. I could do that for all weekly listings but the interface makes it easier to switch windows and use the tax record site.
Kettle
Just heard back from my friend. They evacuated to an area called Hammond. That area was just issued an evacuation order. Now they’re headed to an area NE of Baton Rouge but I can’t remember the name. This is just bad bad news. And of course, my friend’s friend will not leave. His boat is ready. I hope he can get to it because he’s going to need it.
Clot,
You could write your own John-like tales of your more “interesting” real estate deals.
:)
Not sure if any of these ever made it on anyone’s comp killers lists.
2504949
57 Hoffmans Crossing Rd
Lebanon Twp
SLD $520,000 3/1/2002
OLP $829,000 6/24/2007
SLD $767,000 8/6/2008
DOM 277
2475137
210 Old Turnpike Rd
Lebanon Twp
SLD $575,000 3/25/2004
OLP $675,000 1/14/2008
SLD $650,000 8/5/2008
DOM 173
2520174
8 Hoffman Rd
Clinton Twp
SLD $209,000 8/29/2003
OLP$298,500 5/21/2008
SLD $290,500 7/30/2008
DOM 43
2504611
51 Haytown Rd
Clinton Twp
SLD $218,000 2/19/1985
OLP $849,000 4/3/2008
SLD $800,000 7/23/2008
DOM 1
2493621
1 Summer Lane
Tewksbury Twp
SLD $600,000 1/23/2004
OLP $799,900 2/28/2008
SLD $772,000 6/20/2008
DOM 75
2497458
29 Country Oaks Drive
Clinton Twp
SLD $860,000 5/10/2004
OLP $1,269,000 3/12/2008
SLD $999,999 6/19/2008
DOM 45
2484033
12 Apple Lane
Tewksbury Twp
SLD $862,500 10/22/2004
OLP $1,099,000 2/1/2008
SLD $999,000 6/13/2008
DOM 84
2498254
601 Lindabury
Tewksbury Twp
SLD $599,000 3/17/2005
OLP $675,000 3/13/2008
SLD $675,000 6/3/2008
DOM 8
2494420
40 Red Mill Rd
Lebanon Twp
SLD $277,500 5/15/1997
OLP $479,000 3/3/2008
SLD $510,000 5/2/2008
Sold above asking price
DOM 15
2443440
108 Petticoat Lane
Clinton Twp
SLD $282,000 3/2/2000
OLP $679,000 9/11/2007
SLD $630,000 4/18/2008
DOM 155
19 Twin Oaks Lane
Clinton Twp
SLD $435,000 1/5/2003
OLP $575,000 7/31/2007
SLD $525,000 4/15/2008
DOM 218
2474975
11 Country Woods Drive
Lebanon Twp
SLD $505,400 2/11/2002
OLP $709,945 4/8/2008
SLD $655,000 4/8/2008
DOM 48
2473531
3 Hollow Brook Rd
Tewksbury Twp
SLD $305,000 4/24/2002
OLP $369,000 1/9/2008
SLD $370,000 3/14/2008
Sold above asking price
DOM 18
2365392
157 Raritan River Rd
Lebanon Twp
SLD $149,900 12/18/1992
OLP $379,900 1/17/2007
SLD $391,000 9/14/2007
Sold above asking price
DOM 31
2388347
127 Raritan River Rd
Lebanon Twp
SLD $115,000 10/28/1992
OLP $575,000 3/21/2007
SLD $580,000 7/16/2007
Sold above asking price
Now BOM at $599,000
DOM 48
Mikeinwaiting
NOLA should be moved north. rebuild the shipping and port related industry and fortify it, but move the rest of the city north out of the flood area!
the funny thing is that building the levees is what has caused NOLA to become so vulnerable to flooding as all of the sediment that was normally deposited by the river before the levees acted to keep the height of the land up and to expand the swamps outward.
Mike,
Out of sight out of mind!
people do not realize that large parts of NYC and the surrounding boros are at significant risk to storm surge if a hurricane ( even a Cat2) hit NYC. NYC is in the historical path of hurricanes, but it appears we have had a good run of luck the last 100 years. eventually that luck runs out.
While NOLA is an extreme example, many large urban centers in the US are at risk of catastrophic damage from due their being located on the ocean.
heads up all,
NG prices were already going to be high this winter. We will now have a heating emergency in the northeast this winter unless we have a VERY mild winter.
If Hanna hit the GOM (gulf of mexico) also, then the entire northeast will probably see a heating emergency this winter similar to what maine saw last winter. There will be likely supply issues.
NOAA simulation of a Cat2 hiting NYC
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/HAW2/english/surge/brooklyn.shtml
flood map of NYC with a 14 ft storm surge ( probable height produced by a Cat 2 )
http://flood.firetree.net/?ll=40.6895,-73.9304&z=6&m=5
nyc hurricane history
http://www.nyc.gov/html/oem/html/hazards/storms_hurricanehistory.shtml
official NYC hurricane risk map (PDF)
http://www.nyc.gov/html/oem/downloads/pdf/hurricane_map_english.pdf
so let me be a little more on topic here….
Gustav has a high probability of being bigger and badder then katrina. Most projections show it doing more damage then katrina did to both the city and the oil infrastructure.
This storm is set to damage the LOOP. The LOOP is the offshore platform where the largest oil tankers offload their cargo because they a re to big to use conventional facilities. This platform being out of commission means a loss of about 1 million barrels/day of oil. This is significant!
we could be looking at $50 Billion in damage due to this storm.
so, how is relevant to this blog?
I suggest that this storm could accelerate the failure of banks and the deterioration of the US financial system.
Restricted energy supplies will hurt everyone and drive up consumer prices rapidly. Credit is very tight, so who is going to loan the 50 Billion? The US Gov will. But like katrina, the money never gets to the people on the ground. the banks and businesses have locked down credit. I am suggesting that these effects will radiate outward and hit the credit and financial markets in unexpected manners. It should be interesting to watch.
If nothing else consider that we were still flying high when katrina hit. now we are on the downslope and hurting!
For those who dont, you should realize that the Louisiana GOM area is critical to the US in that it is one of the main energy centers of the US and disruptions to this area have very real financial and social impacts to the rest of the country.
Kettle1:
Many of us here are solely economically gloomy. You seem to be more well rounded with your areas of gloominess. Just an observation ;)
stu,
thanks, i try! :)
STu,
with all of the data i have looked at over the last 2 years i have come to the conclusion that its about Food, Finance, Energy. These are the 3 critical components of society that everything else is based off of. You can even make the argument that Food and Finance are just derivatives of Energy.
The point being that to see what the real results of an event are you must look at all 3 aspects. and what may be a minor or negligible impact in one can be catastrophic to another. They tend to act as dependent variables.
hmmm waiting for baby kettle to wake up from nap so we can go back outside and play……….. 2hrs is a long nap…… maybe i should wake him up?.?.?.?.?… wait am i stupid, you dont wake up a sleeping baby!…. hmm better post more doom and gloom to NJREReport and see if those rumors of adult material being available on the web for free are true………
Lehman (LEH) Busted For Plagiarizing Stock Research (LEH)
Jonathan Kennedy | Aug 28, 08 7:03 AM
cheat.jpgLehman Brothers (LEH) has issued a formal apology in a note to clients for copying parts of a Sanford Berstein report on virtualization technology. The report in question was written in March 2008 by Tim Luke and bore an uncanny resemblance in parts to two notes written earlier by Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi. Mr. Luke is, um, no longer with Lehman. WSJ:
hmm, apparently all of that free adult material that is up on the internet is just a rumor, couldnt find any
Frank (313)-
Pick three numbers, present them within no context whatsoever, and claim all is well.
This pretty much sums up the bull argument here. Of course, the gravitas of Frank’s periodic pronouncements is only equalled by their utter stupidity.
Cindy (316)-
It’s the rest of New Brunswick that’s really exciting.
Especially after sundown…
bubble (317)-
I’d look for a community or state-chartered bank that would take this as a portfolio loan. It sounds a little too oddball to do it any other way right now.
scribe (322)-
Minus the bodily fluids.
Anyone here going to Rutgers/Fresno State tomorrow?
If so, let me know. I’ll have the family there and we have a great tailgate in the yellow lot at the 16E flag. I have been supporting our knights for most of my life. If it is possible, they have been even more painful to watch then the Mets and the Jets.
I can see the Jets season playing out already. Brett will start the season going 8-0 and then will suffer a career-ending injury. Of course, Brett has never missed a game in his entire career. Jets finish 8 and 8!
On the Mets front, Heilman blows it in game 7 of the World Series against the Angels after having found his stuff in the NLC series.
In other news Gustav looks like it is going to hit as a category three. Everyone will be relieved as it could have been much worse, but the damage will still result in many billions of immediate losses, not to mention the opportunity costs lost in tourism this fall. Of course, the casinos will rebuild by September 3rd.
presented without comment (and without scanning the previous 200 commnts, as we’re on vacation)
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/8/29/17933/7330/417/579267
(if you refuse to visit: much circumstantial evidence pointing to Tina Fey’s doppleganger, who happens to be running for Rep VP, faking her pregnancy to protect her 16 y o daughter
while people are preparing for huricane gustav, these two dudes are arguing who is better looking.
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/08/31/biden-palins-good-looking/#comments
KET Had seen the NY metro map once before along time ago. What a mess that would be.
NOLA needs to be moved no doubt about it. After this one maybe they will get the message. A good bit of work & jobs for a long time. Money well spent, better than putting it back together every 2 to 4 years.
343#, laughing, did you report it to O camp? they should bring it up in next speach or debate. that will surely make us laugh all the way.
Laughing 343 Frankly who cares. Something many of us would have done for their own if true.
Kettle,
#336
Luke is still with Lehman.
It was an associate on the tech team who got fired.
Later stories clarified that.
Had to post. Just for laughs my liberal friends.
>A case made for Evolution
>
>
>
> Humans originally existed as members of small bands of nomadic
> hunters/gatherers. They lived on deer in the mountains during the summer
> and would go to the coast and live on fish and lobster in the winter. The
> two most important events in all of history were the invention of beer and
> the
> invention of the wheel. The wheel was invented to get man to the
> beer. These were the foundations of modern civilization and together were
> the catalyst for the splitting of humanity into two distinct subgroups:
>
> 1. Liberals, and
> 2. Conservatives.
>
> Once beer was discovered, it required grain and that was the
> beginning of agriculture. Neither the glass bottle nor the aluminum can
> had been invented yet, so while our early ancestors were sitting around
> waiting for them to be
> invented, they just stayed close to the brewery. That’s how
> villages were formed.
>
> Some men spent their days tracking and killing animals to B-B-Q at
> night while they were drinking beer. This was the beginning of what is now
> known as the Conservative movement. Other men who were weaker and less
> skilled at
> hunting learned to live off the conservatives by showing up for the
> nightly B-B-Q’s and doing the sewing, fetching, and hair dressing. This
> was the beginning of the Liberal movement.
>
>
> Some of these liberal men eventually evolved into women. The rest
> became known as girlie-men. Some noteworthy liberal achievements include
> the domestication of cats, the invention of group therapy, group hugs, and
> the concept of Democratic voting to decide how to divide the meat and beer
> that conservatives provided.
>
>
> Over the years conservatives came to be symbolized by the largest,
> most powerful land animal on earth, the elephant. Liberals are symbolized
> by the jackass.
>
>
> Modern liberals like imported beer (with lime added), but most
> prefer white wine or imported bottled water. They eat raw fish but like
> their beef well done. Sushi, tofu, and French food are standard liberal
> fare. Another interesting evolutionary side note: most of their women have
> higher
> testosterone levels than their men.
>
>
> Most social workers, personal injury lawyers, journalists, dreamers
> in Hollywood and group therapists are liberals. Liberals invented the
> designated hitter rule because it wasn’t fair to make the pitcher also
> bat.
>
>
> Conservatives drink domestic beer, mostly Bud. They eat red meat
> and still provide for their women. Conservatives are big-game hunters,
> rodeo cowboys, lumberjacks, construction workers, firemen, medical
> doctors, police officers, corporate executives, athletes, Marines, and
> generally anyone who
> works productively. Conservatives who own companies hire other
> conservatives who want to work for a living.
>
>
> Liberals produce little or nothing They like to govern the
> producers and decide what to do with the production. Liberals believe
> Europeans are more enlightened than America ns. That is why most of the
> liberals remained in Europe when conservatives were coming to America.
> They crept in after the Wild West was tamed and created a business of
> trying to get something for nothing.
>
>
> Here ends today’s lesson in world history:
> It should be noted that a Liberal may have a momentary urge to
> angrily respond to the above before forwarding it.
>
>
> A Conservative will simply laugh and be so convinced of the
> absolute truth of this history that it will be forwarded immediately to
> other true believers and to more liberals just to piss them off. And there
> you have it. Let your next action reveal your true self.
>
No argument here … but at least understand that the logical question is: What else has she lied about?
FYI: I’m likely voting 3rd party
Extreme Makeover has a repeat tonight.
In NOLA, rebuilding a church, after Katrina.
Talk about bad timing for a re-run.
Laughing If I never voted for someone because they lied I would have never voted.
Hudson County people are cynical I guess.
Tempted to write in Elmer Fudd what the hell.
For all the good either party will do us.
Whomever wins this election is f**ked anyway.
“…
August 30th, 2008 at 11:59 pm
“I think we should do some more offshore drilling. Who cares if we have to rebuild the platforms every 3 years (if we’re lucky). Right JBJB?…” (posting by ‘stu’)
JBJB Replies:
“…Excuse me? Is this some kind of taunt? You have got to be kidding me. Are you implying that we should not produce energy because a natural disaster might destroy said energy production equipment? What a f-ing joke you are. You are not even worth a response, but since I’m up…..”
CommanderbobNJ Sez:
GOOD FOR YOU JBJB—I SALUTE YOU !! and others here who confront those USA hating liberals on this blog…..Seems that they WISH the worse for our Republic in both words and thoughts.–This is definitely not the first or second time that ‘they’ show their true colors..as we all know the roaches all swarm out when the lights come on…(HA HA !!)
And another thing; If in the future when our NATION and the (few) forward-thinking east coast states do allow the eventual drilling for oil off our coasts, we will then have another area than the Gulf coast to rely on for our needed crude oil supplies…Until then, the fight will still be on to remove that anti-oil drilling lame-brain corzine and the rest of the liberal morons who run this state as if it is their own personal fiefdom…
Commanderbob
Mike Morgan, feeling a little pissy for the holiday:
http://tinyurl.com/626oqu
Commander (353)-
Just think: if O wins the election, Corzine gets called to DC. You think Paulson sucks, wait ’til you see Guvnor Seat Belt as Treasury secretary.
Hold on to your wallets!
Of course, Corzine would provide some valuable Goldman Sachs continuity at the higher echelons of our rigged and fraudulent economy.
[350] “What else has she lied about?”
What did she lie about? You linked to a conspiracy theory by some cretin at the Daily Kos for Christs sakes, do you really think its credible?
Whatever. Drill for what isn’t there and destroy the environment at the same time. All the while making it cheaper for China and India to buy from the people who actually have it (the Middle East).
Your fearless leader has cut taxes on the wealthy and reduced the wages of the middle class (of which you are a member if you must be reminded). And you keep on drinking the Kool Ade. B doubled the deficit and created a hell in Iraq. This is without any ‘real’ reason except maybe to defend his dad and to enrich his friends. The saddest part of it is that you actually believe that and his cronies are looking after you as they keep selling blocks to Korea and Dubai from the Jenga tower known as the USA.
The Republicans have made lying acceptable and their immorality is just plain stomach churning. Big f’in deal if gay people wanna marry. Let us all focus on what really matters. Making sure women who are raped have to birth the child of the rapist. The people being screwed are our children of their futures. All the meanwhile you celebrate over the crumbs like a damn pigeon.
Go ahead. Make these oilmen richer!
And Corzine is absolutely the worst. He makes Gov. Mangravy look like a saint.
And FYI JBJB and CommanderBob. I am a registered Republican. I just can’t stand the direction the party has taken since Junior took office. Way too much religion and spending and warring.
#331 kettle1
You are always entertaining. I am no longer the most paranoid and gloomy person I can think of.
#339 clot,
College Ave is pretty exciting.
A guy got on one of those buses on College Ave and took a swipe at me with a Commando knife.
Another time on College Ave on a weekend night a fight broke out between what I thought was 2 gangs and I heard what sounded like shots. It was actually some members of the football team vs I forget who throwing the cast iron outdoor furniture at each other. We heard the pop pop pop sounds and I kept telling the other couple we were with to move their a$$ so we could get in out car and get out of there.
I dragged my girlfriend to our car as about 40 gangster looking guys came running at us and ran between us and the other couple we were with. The popping sounds was cast iron furniture banging agains each other and the ground. The fight broke up when a footballer took a chair in the head.
Note. My kids are not allowed to go to utgers.
bairen (360)-
“I am no longer the most paranoid and gloomy person I can think of.”
Then get to work on it, buster.
Stu
Nice collection of straw men you got there. Come back when you grow up and are ready to chat.
And I am a registered Democrat, whats that tell you, nothing really.
The problem is, I like O, he is the best candidate the D’s have put forth in some time (which is not saying too much). I thought at first he would be different, and really reach out to change DC. But as I watched him carefully, I came to realize he has no interest in taking on the bloated and corrupt interest groups in his party. This was confirmed by his speech this week, a laundry list of the same boring liberal platitudes of the 1970’s. Sure it had pretty new wrapping and a new big blue bow, but the gift inside was the same nonsense of big government liberalism, class warfare, race hustling, and grief pimping. You could have taken him off that stage an plucked in any doctrinaire liberal from Ted Kennedy to Barbara Boxer and the speech would have been he same in its contents. He doesn’t want to back to the BC era, he wants to go back to the JC era. Not the Jesus JC (although some of his followers seem to believe this) but Mr. Peanut himself. No thanks, not for me, I got enough of that right here in NJ. You’ve seen how well that’s working out.
I promise this is my last political post.
341
Thanks Clot.
I have a couple of additional local community bank leads that I will explore.
As another option, do you think I should also ask the seller for a note? How could this work?
“…Stu Says:
August 30th, 2008 at 10:57 pm
I think we should do some more offshore drilling. Who cares if we have to rebuild the platforms every 3 years (if we’re lucky). Right JBJB?
Republican Morons!…”
——————————————
Commanderbobnj sez:
Wha ??? What are you talking about Stu ??:
——————————————
Stu says:
“…And FYI JBJB and CommanderBob. I am a registered Republican. I just can’t stand the direction the party has taken since Junior took office. Way too much religion and spending and warring…”
Commanderbob
College Ave is pretty exciting.
bairen,
Please, you’re making me all nostalgic for my RU days!
#366 rentingnj,
Fortunately the parking squad was so efficient at giving out tickets to make up for the lack of physical security After the knife on the bus incident I got my boss at my college job to get me a permit to park on College Ave, even though I was living on Cook.
Another thing lovely about Rutgers is how students had to park far away from their classes at night on Livingston whenever there was a night basketball game at the RAC. Yet there were no shuttle buses or added security for those students. I had to take a bus after my class to walk my girlfriend back to her car. She thought I was too paranoid the first time I did this, than a week later there were 3 gangbangers who tried to carjack and kidnap a co-ed on Busch campus, in front of tons of witnesses.
Valid point. Maybe the ‘conspiracy theory’ is nothing. Or who knows … maybe this is another John Edwards-type story. Maybe this is another Swift Boat. Who knows, really? The evidence is there for now … guess we can only read into it what we want.
In a week, when newsweek or cnn ask her about it, then i guess we’ll know.
And yes, i loathe political debates on here just as much as the next guy.
Happy Labor Day!
Eager to commence our home search Wednesday. Seven months to go!
It’s not so much what she lied about as much as how it looks in relation to her political views if this is true. Like her stance on teaching abstinence only sex ed to teens.
I had some time to kill so I read through some of the comments. I guess a lot of women think you normally show more after each pregnancy so it’s unlikely that she would show this much during her previous pregnancy and not at all this time. WARNING – THE PICTURE MAY DESTROY THE VPILF SOME OF YOU MAY WISH TO KEEP. The story just doesn’t make a lot of sense.
If the story is true she seems to be a bit of a hypocrite, if it’s not true some people think she’s a bad mother because she didn’t cancel a speech in texas after her water broke and decided to fly back to anchorage then headed off to some remote hospital to give birth. Probably not the best thing to do to get on an 11hr flight instead of head to a hospital if you are in early labor with a special needs child.
Personally I think this is funny and sit back with some popcorn as all these stories come up. And before the right wingers chime in, I chuckled when the other guy claimed his grand father helped free a concentration camp in a war he never saw any combat in too.
I think there’s one easy way to clear this up. Apparently she’s breast feeding. Lets have her topless in some public forum and see which one is really squirting milk with no tubes or anything. Cause really our political system has become a perverted side show while the wool gets pulled over our eyes on the real issues and the fact that there is likely not going to be any real change in the short term. Who ever gets elected will just say the problems are worse than they expected now that they are in office and blame either the D congress or R former administration depending on who is elected.
Appologies to all the collateral damage as I puke up my disgust today on this site :)
I will say one thing about McC….if being Presidential implies pragmatism, deliberation and shrewd judgement…..he damn sure did something whimsical, reckless and emotional. He gave us an example of how he would govern and I don’t like. It would be fortunate for us to have this blow up in his face, because I don’t want him making mistakes on the public dime….
To all bush haters on this board. this is what your jewish gay mayor said about him:
“I have no regrets for having made that decision and helping the President to win a second term. Today, according to the most recent CNN/Opinion Research Corp. survey, “71 percent of the American public disapprove of how Bush is handling his job as President, an all-time high in polling.” His position can be compared with that of Harry Truman who left Washington unpopular and alone in 1953. Today, with the passage of time, most historians and certainly the American people, see Truman in a different light, primarily for his willingness to stand firm against Soviet aggression, whether against Greece or South Korea, and proclaim the Truman Doctrine, effectively defending the free world from Soviet efforts to expand their hegemony. Like Truman, George W. Bush, in my view, will be seen as one of the few world leaders who recognized the danger of Islamic terrorism and was willing with Tony Blair to stand up to it and not capitulate.”
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/05/history_will_redeem_bush.html
to those self-claimed knowing-everything gurus on this board, here is your wiseman henry kissinger said about “reckless” mccane even when his fellow new yorker was still viewed as front-runner:
http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalradar/2007/12/kissinger-mccai.html
Bi- Kissenger cannot ever travel abroad without being handed a warrant. He is wanted for questioning in several countries,yet you want to hold up his opinion on a presidential candidate? He has zero credibility with anyone over the age of 40, and I am surprised the Chinese even let him in for the Olympics.
My wife and I were at Woodbury today.
It was packed!!
What recession?
Sync,
Were the other woodbury shoppers speaking American? Or were they speaking with European and South American accents?
Daily Kos: State of the Nation, Rumour debunked. I guess you want to see the birth video too.
Bairen,
You could be the most pointless poster I have ever read on this board………………………………
stop sucking up
This one is not to shabby to say the least bet you could get it for under 400k.
http://newmls.gsmls.com/public/show_public_report_rpt.do?report=clientfull&Id=35954957_11260
Start at 370 meet at about 385 should run about 2600 a month piti with 20% dp. Now about that commute………..!
I have noticed more & more new listing coming on in my area. Seems strange in the end of summer. Houses just sit & sit even some low price deals so to speak aren’t moving. Prices declining still, some have their heads in the clouds but others have lowered much nicer homes in better locations & crushed any hope they had selling at dream price.
This is unfolding very nicely in my neck of the woods. (at least for me)I hope you BC & train town watchers see the same. When the next wave of nams & alt-a stuff hits the fan you should. Patience my friends let us not blow it in the 2nd half of the game.
I will wait another year just to let it set in it is not like they are going up once they hit bottom. On the last go round late 80s to 90s it took well over 5 years for anything to move up so keep renting & saving. Time is your friend.
barien,
it has taken years of practice and numerous reeducation session to reach my current level of doom and gloom. so i appreciate the recognition!
You too can reach such an impressive level for only $99.99/month (cash or bullion) just e-mail
TEOTWAWKI@teotwawki.com
A first for mankind.
As of this week the north pole ice cap has melted enough for a ship to sail around the north side of canada and russia!
live storm surge measurements
http://tidesonline.nos.noaa.gov/geographic.html
A gold bug states the case for cash and liquidity
Though few may have noticed, the past few weeks may be regarded as a global economic turning point. Evidence is mounting that the United States is entering a recession, with increasing signs that it could morph into a depression. While the current US administration appears resigned to bailing out or nationalizing large tracts of American commerce, the presidential candidates have been drifting towards the Great Society era spending proposals of Lyndon Johnson, US president in the 1960s. At the same time, America’s principal economic rivals appear to be charting courses that are not in line with US interests.
The size of the problem is enormous. A fall of just 20 percent in US house values, (confirmed by the latest Case Shiller data release) wipes almost $5 trillion from the wealth of American consumers and businesses. This amounts to more than one third of America’s GDP and half of the total US government debt. How could the fallout be anything less than systemic?
372#, sean, any source or just your imagination? i know kissenger is welcomed at the same level as u.s. presidents in china because he helped nixon opened china to the world again.
>Bi- Kissenger cannot ever travel abroad without being handed a warrant. He is wanted for questioning in several countries,yet you want to hold up his opinion on a presidential candidate? He has zero credibility with anyone over the age of 40, and I am surprised the Chinese even let him in for the Olympics.
Housing collides with Highlands Act
Two major issues stand in the way of reconciling the two agencies’ concepts about the future of the 860,000-acre Highlands region. The first issue, the number of housing units that can or should be built, has produced widely different numbers, with COAH in some cases asking for more affordable units than the total number that can be built under Highlands Council restrictions.
“Our plan and the COAH regulations are totally at odds,” said Highlands Council member Mimi Letts, the former mayor of Parsippany.
“The question is, can COAH come into conformance with the Highlands plan,” said Weingart.
“My wife and I were at Woodbury today.
It was packed!!
What recession?”
a) Retailers have to do some major price reductions to move inventroy.
b) credit cards. People are still using them like crazy & banks are still pushing them down people’s throats. Sooner or later someone has to pay the piper.
Just watch as things unravel.
SAS
talked to some folks I know who work & live downtown manhattan.
they tell me buisness is slowing and alot of apartments available for rent/sale down there that they can’t get a tenant or a buyer.
SAS
#376 Stan
Bairen,
You could be the most pointless poster I have ever read on this board………………………………
stop sucking up
Only could be? Must try harder
#361Note. My kids are not allowed to go to utgers.
This kind of thing just does not happen at Rutgers.
#378 Mike seeing the same thing in my BC train town. This is the start of the mini Fall selling season, hence the new listings.People want to be in or out of a house before the holidays.
RE Fall Selling Season: we have to see the impact of the storm on refinery capacity for the East Coast. If no big deal, then all clear, but an instant +$1/gallon gas would freak people out….
bi (370):
“jewish gay mayor”
I am starting to see the light on the way you think. No wonder you are so delusional…
Don’t ya know All Hype? The Jews and the gays don’t belong in the USA cause Jesus says so.
bi – There are reams of info on tneocon kissenger.
Here is one related to his travel and warrants.
http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=990CE4DA113BF93BA15750C0A9649C8B63&sec=&spon=&&scp=9&sq=kissenger%20france&st=cse
bubble (364)-
Sure, ask the seller to take back a note. However, the seller may balk at holding a second, in which case he’d have to subordinate.
If the seller has a lot of equity, you could possibly talk him into holding a first. This could help him defray and defer capital gains, so it’s worth investigating.
Having a seller hold a note works almost exactly like any institutional mortgage.
Don’t ya know All Hype? The Jews and the gays don’t belong in the USA cause Jesus says so.
____________________________________________
Stu – I will inform all my jewish and gay friends immediately.
bi, can you please tell me where they can go?
Thanks!
jmacdaddio #374,
There was quite a bit of Amurkan. And lots of foreign languages too. Various european/slavic sounding, lots of east asian, and of course lots of Espanol.
But I just figured that was because of the buses that bring residents in from the City.
I saw one guy – American – in a black T-shirt with the words “Welcome to America. Now speak English”. It was funny because he was in a place where the public address system addressed the crowd in about half a dozen different languages.
3b #388,
Really. College Ave is no warzone, not even after hours. If you wanna see scary in NB, there’s an off-campus apartment complex just outside of Cook-Douglass….
you guys are a twisted. ed koch openly admitted he is a gay, he is jewish, he is democrat and he is still thinking bush is great. what is wrong with that? as a matter of fact, i highly respect him and dr. henry kissinger.
by the way, dr. henry kissinger is also a great jew. all the attack from extreme liberals and foreign agencies are either for the money or for their anti-america agenda.
bi Says:
September 1st, 2008 at 12:33 pm
grim, can you delete this post?
400#, chifin, check this out if you don’t think he is a great jewish american
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henry_Kissinger
bi – Koch was on Bloomberg Radio the other day you should download that podcast instead of citing a story from may when he was stumping for Hillary.
Sync –
More than likely the buses from NYC brought European tourists to Woodbury and not residents. A day at Woodbury is a fun part of any NYC vacation if you’re from a country that uses the Euro.
bi:
The human equivalent of a huge fart in a crowded room.
402#, sean, before i hit the download button, can you ask yourself a simple question: can a 82 years old guy will easily change position in 3 months?
actually, i don’t have to go to download the script. when he was answering a call in his bloomberg radio show, he reiterated that bush is like truman and that people may realize that 50 years later.
if you have something suggesting otherwise substantially, please post it.
#397 Take a look at Newark Delaware where Univ of Delaware is located. I would take College Ave any day over Newark DE.
“The human equivalent of a huge fart in a crowded room.”
…wins my vote for quote of the week!
sl
3b
I haqve been past but not through Newark, DE. Is the whole town bad?
A Shotgun Wedding should appeal to the Redneck Republican’s
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080901/ap_on_el_pr/cvn_palin_daughter
#408 Shore: pretty much, and worse at night.
#404 Clot Says “The human equivalent of a huge fart in a crowded room.”
Are your nuts? Farts go away…….
your = you…..apologies
Sean,
I don’t think this is the end of the story. It seems that whenever there is a bit of truth given out to quash rumors, it is never the full story. Just like I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s more to the Edwards affair (baby) I wouldn’t be surprised to find out if more of the Palin rumors are true.
Regardless, I think a lot of people will have a hard time listening to her continue to talk about sbstinence only sex ed when she can’t make it work in her own home.
413#, a lot of americans will feel she is part of them just as they salutes wife-cheater bill clinton.
“68 percent of African- American kids born out of wedlock, 45 percent of Hispanic kids, 25 percent of white kids.”
why am i not surprised that the biggest clown on this board is the first to invoke Bill Clinton.
i’m now fascinated by Bi. is that possible? I want to know so much about him. does he really believe 1/4 of the s*it that he writes? does he speak as illegibly as he types?
bi – what’s your sign, man?
(that was not a come on in any way, shape, or form)
415#, you have no problem with 68% and 45%, but you have problem with 25%. apparently, you have racial bias. you can ask romney’s office if you have questions about the numbers.
source: NYT: Mitt Romney Suspends Campaign.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/07/us/politics/08romney-transcript.html
bi,
don’t know what you and other right wingers don’t understand. It’s not that a child is born out of wedlock. It’s that a mother that proposes teaching abstinence as the only for of sex ed can’t successfuly teach it to her own daughter.
If the 68%, 45% or 25% of the segments you quoted were running around talking up their family values and talking down premarital sex and pregnancy, they’d be hypocrites too.
Just like many people don’t have a problem with gay people, but if someone in the republican party who voted against gay rights turns out to be chasing male interns they’re full of crap.
I’d say the same thing about someone that was anti death penalty up until someone in his family is brutally murdered and they’re seeking the death penalty in their case.
Laughing,
people like bi and other left and right wingers are pretty simple to figure out. Not that they’re dumb per se, but they generally don’t take the time to look into things for themselves. Some just don’t have the capacity to do it. They just quote what they comes out of their respective pundits mouths so they don’t have to waste time thinking for themselves. They tend to contradict themselves and many times they don’t even realize it as they’ve never put the time to investigate the garbage they regurgitate enough for it to sink into their skulls. The people high up the x-wing information food chain probably know when they contradict themselves, they just assume enough people will be stupid enough not to notice.
I don’t know why, but this story interested me and I’ve read different things on both sides. One of the right wing retorts was that Obama was born out of wedlock. And I’m not sure if that’s true or not but there’s an obvious flaw these sheeple can’t see in that argument. Obama didn’t choose how he was born and Obama’s mother wasn’t going around flaunting her family values and changing public policies to force her own principles on people, which she herself could not follow.
People like bi and Frank and possibly some other people on here on the other side of the fence aren’t insightful, it’s obvious they don’t even understand a lot of what they’re saying. They’re merely carrier pidgeons.
I’m going to change my name on here to Tom your comment is awaiting moderation
bi – i dont care about your links, man. im fascinated by YOU. tell us something, anything. really, you’re an interesting fellow.
i’d read a 10,000 word piece on you in the new yorker, man.
First of all, no one ever voted for Ed Koch for his hawkish “America is Israel’s poodle” foreign policy.
Second, a Palin lie… She has recently been going around saying that as governor of Alaska, she told congress “thanks, but no thanks” on the budget earmark for the bridge to nowhere. However, congress removed the earmark a full 13 months prior to her becoming governor.
Had she actually gone to congress to deliver that message after she became governor, they would have looks at her as if she had bricks for brains.
421#, theo, any source for your claim “congress removed the earmark a full 13 months prior to her becoming governor
i have a link from liberal media:
http://www.cnn.com/2007/US/09/22/alaska.bridge.ap/
Bi,
Here’s my link.
http://tinyurl.com/55bosl
OT: Radon results
Radon results on condo granite counter was within limits. Four (4) picocuries and above is high. My results were 1 pcc.
Hope the lab is right.
Enjoy your Labor Day!
A link war how fun here is my link I’ll raise you two.
Cindy underestimates both herself and the Fresno State football team. I am beginning to think she’s like the shark at the pool table :)
Rutgers is down 10-0 with about 5 minutes to go in the 3rd. Stu, Lil Gator and I are here at the game. It would have been much more fun to watch if Rutgers had fielded and a kicker today.
(426) NJGator
I was just afraid you folks would beat up our guys. We never win the WAC. Pat Hill says “anyone, anywhere, any time.” By the time we get to the regular season – we’ve already had a season….injuries.
You would be ahead right now if your kicker had gotten out his kinks a bit earlier in the game. You have the yardage. We have just been able to hold you inside the 5. Score now Fresno State 10 – Rutgers 7.
Wait a minute…..we are on the 2 yard line…Ryan Matthews – touchdown Fresno State..Yeah!
Gator and Stu – We still have to play Wisconsin and UCLA – Is Ryan Matthews as good as he looks on TV?
Fresno State 24 Rutgers 7 3:15 remaining..
3b 407 In this market a fools hope, maybe they want to sell by next holiday season.
Hahahaaaa! By this time next year they will be begging for a buyer with some cash.
Still holding out for my all cash deal. Screw them I don’t even want a 50k mortgage. Taxes will be enough of a burden now & in the future a nightmare. Keep the faith my friends there will always be another house. Time is on are side.
Let them eat cake or maybe foreclosure papers with a bottle of Chianti.
Tom,
What I find to be true about the right wing whether they be politicians or friends, is their ability to change their mind ( a mind close prior) when it pertains to them personally or a member of their family. They are only liberals with themselves. McCain changed his tune on stem cell research when he watched his close friend suffer terribly with Parkinsons. It falls in with their religious beliefs, they love to flaunt, they are not perfect, just forgiven. I get that all the time from one friend in particular when pointing out the inconsistincies in how they state others should live their lives and how they actually live theirs. To me the difference between a liberal and a conservative is a liberal has the ability to accept anothers flaws without actually having them, a conservative can only accept flaws that they actually have. Simplistic version
KL
I think they should take away Schiano’s house.
Gator (426)-
Yeah. Her “poor us” routine earlier in the week started to sound like a professional sandbag job.
And it was. :)
(431) Clot – I had no idea Ryan Matthews was that good (he scored all three touchdowns.) He was a freshman last year and did not have that kind of speed.
Sorry if I sounded like a sandbagger.
I know many people here will have ideological problems with her, but I think you have to admit that MC sames’s VP pick was pretty brilliant. I would have like to seen a hispanic woman to cover everyone who feels left out.
According to CNBC, Palin was a separatist! M did not do his homework and I stand by my original statement that he really blew it on this pick. I listened to an old interview she gave a few months back and she sounds like a cheerleader when she speaks. Every 5th word is ‘like’. Biden will eat her alive in debate. She also did not support drilling for oil, and was for the bridge to nowhere. And I’m not going to cite my sources because quite frankly, it really doesn’t matter and the truth will hit the mainstream soon enough anyway. NJ will probably reelect Corzine so pointing out flaws with a Republican on a Jersey-centric blog serves no purpose except maybe to keep BI posting, which is true entertainment.
Rutgers blows!
phuket – got engaged a few years back on pi pi island. probably one of the coolest places i’ve ever been.
Sarah Palin: Secessionist?
http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2008/09/members-of-frin.html
Did the M folks do any research at all before picking her? I think I have undergone more intensive pre-employment background checks.
My god, her daughter is pregnant as well? Nice job M. I hope you are more careful when making choices that affect all of us then the amount of time you spent vetting your Veep.
I really hope we don’t find out that M is the daddy!
Clot 430 – I agree. Maybe it can satisfy some Middlesex County COAH obligations.
Phuket Real Estate Says:
September 1st, 2008 at 8:56 pm
Already responded before you even posted.
chicagofinance Says:
August 31st, 2008 at 10:40 pm
I will say one thing about McC….if being Presidential implies pragmatism, deliberation and shrewd judgement…..he damn sure did something whimsical, reckless and emotional. He gave us an example of how he would govern and I don’t like. It would be fortunate for us to have this blow up in his face, because I don’t want him making mistakes on the public dime….
Gator (438)-
From what I hear, they can turn it into a 7-family apartment building.
chi (439)-
I’ve finally figured out what I like about Palin. She and her family have the white trash/hot mom/Disney kids growing up too fast/fundamentalist thing down cold.
They are like a cross between the Spears and Lohans…with firearms, weird separatist ideas and snowmobiles thrown into the mix.
VPILF, indeed. And she’s not even the most interesting one in the clan. My guess is, hubby’s got the IQ of a bag of hammers.
My guess is also that Mr. Palin is a having the first of what is going to be a long series of bad days. I’m guessing if he’s a drinking kind of guy (which I think describes every male in Alaska), he’s going to spending a lot of time at the business end of a bottle of Yukon Jack.
Todd Palin was charged with DWI in 1986. David Brody of CBNnews.com said Palin, who was 22 at the time, was pulled over in a truck in the small Alaska town of Dillingham.
Brody reported there were no accident or injuries.
A senior McCain adviser confirmed the arrest, noting that the incident had occurred 24 years ago.
http://www.allheadlinenews.com/articles/7012138555
Post #443 awaiting moderation. Todd Palin was charged with DWI in 1986.
I thought DWI was encouraged in Alaska.
BTW, a shout out to Vodka. Nice call on Bristol’s gut-bump!
That thing didn’t look like it came from eating too much moose jerky and seal blubber.
Is removign the requirement to use the money for a specific purpse but still giving the money with no stipulation on it’s use still considered “removing the earmark”
This is my favorite part from that cnn article.
Just last month, presidential candidate Sen. John [M], R-Arizona, said pet projects could have played a role in a Minnesota bridge collapse that killed 13 people earlier this year.
“Maybe if we had done it right, maybe some of that money would have gone to inspect those bridges and other bridges around the country,” [M] told a group of people in a town-hall style meeting in Ankeny, Iowa.
“Maybe the 200,000 people who cross that bridge every day would have been safer than spending $233 million of your tax dollars on a bridge in Alaska to an island with 50 people on it.”
According to this article on factcheck.org M really didn’t do much in the Senate regarding stopping the bridge to nowhere project.
Anyone else find it ironic that the mccain selected the vp from the state that got the funding for the bridge while the convention was held in the state he claimed might have had a bridge and lives saved?
what next? she’ll be in favor of raising taxes, have been involved in a real estate scam with a felon, have a racist preacher who married her to a person who has never been proud of this country..and who thinks is downright mean? nah..couldn’t happen..
446 – Mr. T I don’t think Michelle O has ever advocated secession. M can now take the bogus patriotic crap off the table too.
We finally decided that we can never afford a home in a good school district in New Jersey and will rent until retirement. We hope we can then leave to the midwest. $94,000 annual income seems insufficient to purchase a home and feel comfortable in New Jersey i.e. have money for emergencies, savings etc.
We finally decided that we can never afford a home in a good school district in New Jersey and will rent until retirement. We hope we can then leave to the midwest. $94,000 annual income seems insufficient to purchase a home and feel comfortable in New Jersey i.e. have money for emergencies, savings etc.
добрый день!
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